If Boris wins the leadership, do we think he will go to the country immediately seeking a renewed mandate, or try to cling on for the next two years and hope things turn around?
It may be smart to go to the country now, lose, and have Labour own the next few years of recession and pain. Before returning triumphant to Number 10 in 5 years time.
I just don't see what's in it for him to return to being PM for two more years, when whoever is in power is likely to be deeply unpopular due to the economic shitstorm that's heading our way.
'Proposals to honour one of Edinburgh’s most famous feminists with a statue on the Royal Mile have been put on hold after a bitter row about the choice of sculptor.
The anger erupted after the trustees suspended their open call for designs and instead commissioned Stoddart, the King’s sculptor in ordinary in Scotland, even though he had not originally applied. The competition was intended to promote an emerging artist who was inspired by Inglis’s life and work.'
Apparently all because of QE2's funeral, so they wanted something to suit for the royal mile or something, without even seeing what folk had to offer.
More than a bit shit for the folk who have been working up designs, and somewhat unfair IMO as Mr Stoddart has already bagged the previous Hume and Smith commissions on the RM (which I like actually).
What a weird article. Nowhere does it name the commissioning organisation. It simply states “the trustees”, six times. The trustees of what? Elementary journalistic skills are almost nonexistent in Scotland these days.
TBF might have been edited at Graun HQ.
Seem to be the trustees of the campaign set up as a charity to take the dosh.
So Wallace rules himself out of the leadership, leaning towards Boris but waiting to see what Sunak has to say on defence.
With Johnson and Sunak well ahead on MP nominations now and Mordaunt trailing well behind it looks like a Johnson v Sunak race.
If Sunak ends up with most MPs support I would hope he would offer Boris a top job, eg Foreign Secretary again (Mordaunt could be Deputy PM). Boris could then take it and let Sunak lead the party to defeat but a respectable defeat rather than the humiliating defeat they were heading for.
Boris would then be in prime position to be Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer if he holds his seat or finds a safer seat.
@HYUFD are you backing a Boris return or would you rather the above scenario? Just interested.
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth Hearing Laura Pidcock, once viewed as a successor to Jeremy Corbyn as leader, has quit the Labour Party. It's not clear why.
I see similarities between Laura Pidcock and Liz Truss. Both espouse a strong willed yet astonishing simple minded understanding of politics and economics. In another world Pidcock could have got to No.10, tried to roll out her vision, and experienced a similar fate to Truss.
LBC suggesting the clown camp is overstating his position and Sunak has a commanding lead
Also that the clown is apparently still on holiday
Is my feeling. Hype. Froth. Will be blown away, one way or another, over the next 72 hours.
The logical mechanistic way of analysing is often the way to go - and I can see why Johnson should be short if you do that - but this is one for the impressionistic Big Picture intuition approach.
I was wrong about 'free money' laying him though. It's going to pay off in the end but there's just a teeny bit of stress now, I'll fess to that.
Feels like my 2022 Trexit lays.
I laid that too. Ouch. However I did get an ok overall Truss result because I backed "no conf vote" at a good price. Here, with Johnson, if it happens I'm taking a nasty hit. As he's shortened I've kept laying. No more now though - let's just see how the cookie crumbles. Be all over quite soon.
So Wallace rules himself out of the leadership, leaning towards Boris but waiting to see what Sunak has to say on defence.
With Johnson and Sunak well ahead on MP nominations now and Mordaunt trailing well behind it looks like a Johnson v Sunak race.
If Sunak ends up with most MPs support I would hope he would offer Boris a top job, eg Foreign Secretary again (Mordaunt could be Deputy PM). Boris could then take it and let Sunak lead the party to defeat but a respectable defeat rather than the humiliating defeat they were heading for.
Boris would then be in prime position to be Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer if he holds his seat or finds a safer seat.
@HYUFD are you backing a Boris return or would you rather the above scenario? Just interested.
The above scenario, so should Boris, PM now is a poisoned chalice. Far better to let Sunak restore some stability but still lead the party to defeat at the next general election then Boris could become Leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government raising taxes and having to pursue austerity and facing strikes
Imo its over for the Tory party as is. The only question is how they split - Boris wins and there is a centrist split away under Rishi/Hunt (even though BJ is a centrist economically himself). Rishi/Penny wins and a Farage, Johnson, Spartan vehicle emerges. The latter is slightly less likely but still imo the most likely outcome
Not under FPTP, with PR maybe
I think you are almost certainly correct, but we are in new territory. My view is the Tory vote won't be this low (but I could be wrong) and also even if they do get wiped out they will have the organisation and money to recover (but again I could be wrong).
It is very, very hard to break the two main parties under FPTP, but it has happened in Scotland. As you say with PR a realignment is not only possible, but in my opinion likely for all parties.
The 2 main parties haven't even broken in Scotland, just they are now the 2 main Unionist parties with the SNP taking almost all nationalist votes
No no no, the Tories haven’t been broken in Scotland.
Do you remember when European football was an occasional televisual treat? Standard fare was whatever ITV gave you on a Sunday afternoon - QPR against Manchester United, say - didn't get the senses tingling, but steady and reliable and, through familiarity, interesting. Or you'd get an FA Cup match on the BBC every few weeks: Nottingham Forest against Blackburn. Fun, in its moderate way. But from time to time you'd get something out of the ordinary - Liverpool might play Borussia Monchengladbach - and that would have a frisson of novelty and excitement. And then some berk thought - well if European football is the icing on the cake which gets people interested, lets give people more of it. Much more. So much icing it makes them sick. And my interest in European football - and with it, all football - waned as a result. Too much icing, no appetite for the nutritional stuff. That's how I feel about politics at the moment. It's exhausting. It's far too dramatic. There is too much of it. The scriptwriters have gone mad with excess. It has jumped the shark. Oh for the days when little really happened, and we could get madly interested in the unchangeability of the daily poll at 10.30pm, or wildly excited about whether or not the CoE would push through with raising VAT on pasties.
"The law of diminishing marginal returns is a theory in economics that predicts that after some optimal level of capacity is reached, adding an additional factor of production will actually result in smaller increases in output."
Investopedia.
Applies to everything. Know as 'the iron law'.
I have reached the point when I almost never watch sport at all. Excess of supply renders it all without meaning. Politics next.
I suspect I’m not alone in having a sense of deep deep internal relief, knowing that The Boris is returning to the throne of Fair England
I imagine many churches will toll bells out of sheer jubilation, lofty maypoles will be erected in our towns, and the children will play their most joyous games, the king’s Jews will bake celebratory matzos in Stokey, and gays will embrace Muslims in the boulevards of Birmingham
GOD BE PRAISED
Maybe Johnson was indirectly right. Some journalists should be beaten up.
I suspect I’m not alone in having a sense of deep deep internal relief, knowing that The Boris is returning to the throne of Fair England
I imagine many churches will toll bells out of sheer jubilation, lofty maypoles will be erected in our towns, and the children will play their most joyous games, the king’s Jews will bake celebratory matzos in Stokey, and gays will embrace Muslims in the boulevards of Birmingham
GOD BE PRAISED
Free drink on the journos' train again today? Complete with mescal cactus and caterpillars in it?
If Boris wins the leadership, do we think he will go to the country immediately seeking a renewed mandate, or try to cling on for the next two years and hope things turn around?
It may be smart to go to the country now, lose, and have Labour own the next few years of recession and pain. Before returning triumphant to Number 10 in 5 years time.
I just don't see what's in it for him to return to being PM for two more years, when whoever is in power is likely to be deeply unpopular due to the economic shitstorm that's heading our way.
I don't think there is any 'long game' with BoJo, he's going to go back to No.10 if he can, irrespective of all the problems.
Astonishing to think that just four days ago the Conservative Party was beginning to inch towards returning to sanity by uniting around Jeremy Hunt's financial plans.
The fracking vote was a bloody stupid idea.
I'm not sure they had an option. Failing to contest it, giving Sir Keir control of the Commons agenda, would also have seen Truss forced to resign as PM immediately.
62 Rishi 58 Boris according to Guido (the latter figure somewhat suspect)
If we do end up with Rishi winning amongst MPs but Boris going all Trumpesque and insisting on a members' ballot, which he would win, then the Conservative Party, and the country, are heading into a chasm.
The list of declared Boris supporters contain many of the suspects who have wrecked their party and this country. Ideological nutters.
Imo its over for the Tory party as is. The only question is how they split - Boris wins and there is a centrist split away under Rishi/Hunt (even though BJ is a centrist economically himself). Rishi/Penny wins and a Farage, Johnson, Spartan vehicle emerges. The latter is slightly less likely but still imo the most likely outcome
Not under FPTP, with PR maybe
I think you are almost certainly correct, but we are in new territory. My view is the Tory vote won't be this low (but I could be wrong) and also even if they do get wiped out they will have the organisation and money to recover (but again I could be wrong).
It is very, very hard to break the two main parties under FPTP, but it has happened in Scotland. As you say with PR a realignment is not only possible, but in my opinion likely for all parties.
The 2 main parties haven't even broken in Scotland, just they are now the 2 main Unionist parties with the SNP taking almost all nationalist votes
No no no, the Tories haven’t been broken in Scotland.
If the SC rules against the Scottish government holding an independence referendum and Sturgeon rules out UDI expect Salmond to stand Alba candidates against the SNP in every Scottish Westminster constituency at the next general election on a UDI ticket
I suspect I’m not alone in having a sense of deep deep internal relief, knowing that The Boris is returning to the throne of Fair England
I imagine many churches will toll bells out of sheer jubilation, lofty maypoles will be erected in our towns, and the children will play their most joyous games, the king’s Jews will bake celebratory matzos in Stokey, and gays will embrace Muslims in the boulevards of Birmingham
GOD BE PRAISED
Far better for the rest of us if we made the bugger an Anchorite.
There are the remains of a suitable anchorhold at St Anne's, Lewis to keep him safe and confined - from where he could watch his giant image being burnt on Bonfire Night .
If Boris wins the leadership, do we think he will go to the country immediately seeking a renewed mandate, or try to cling on for the next two years and hope things turn around?
It may be smart to go to the country now, lose, and have Labour own the next few years of recession and pain. Before returning triumphant to Number 10 in 5 years time.
I just don't see what's in it for him to return to being PM for two more years, when whoever is in power is likely to be deeply unpopular due to the economic shitstorm that's heading our way.
Immediately to see off privileges committee and that he is way short of a majority in the Commons. He will have about 220 in favour 430 against.
Even Sunak would have maybe 310 in favour 340 against.
An early election is the only answer for either, especially Bozo.
Astonishing to think that just four days ago the Conservative Party was beginning to inch towards returning to sanity by uniting around Jeremy Hunt's financial plans.
The fracking vote was a bloody stupid idea.
I'm not sure they had an option. Failing to contest it, giving Sir Keir control of the Commons agenda, would also have seen Truss forced to resign as PM immediately.
I meant it was a stupid idea from Starmer.
He could still be facing failing and utterly unpopular Truss next week rather than reborn Johnson.
Astonishing to think that just four days ago the Conservative Party was beginning to inch towards returning to sanity by uniting around Jeremy Hunt's financial plans.
And if people had united behind Truss and Hunt then what you consider sanity may have happened, but no, instead people had to push to get the Prime Minister ousted instead of uniting behind Hunt and her.
Insane to have pushed a PM out rather than wait until Hunt could reveal his plans, but there we go.
What happens if no one gets 100 votes? Has this been answered?
Pretty sure that won't be an issue - they know this is not going to be a field of 8 candidates, so you pick one of the main suspects, and potentially shift if needed.
Penny totally out of it...just talking to a guy doing my flooring and he backs Boris as he wants something done about the migrants...working people want Boris
Boris likes migrants. Your flooring guy has mixed him up with Suella Braverman.
yes but thats Boris strength in that he gets perceived to be part of the WWC
Do you remember when European football was an occasional televisual treat? Standard fare was whatever ITV gave you on a Sunday afternoon - QPR against Manchester United, say - didn't get the senses tingling, but steady and reliable and, through familiarity, interesting. Or you'd get an FA Cup match on the BBC every few weeks: Nottingham Forest against Blackburn. Fun, in its moderate way. But from time to time you'd get something out of the ordinary - Liverpool might play Borussia Monchengladbach - and that would have a frisson of novelty and excitement. And then some berk thought - well if European football is the icing on the cake which gets people interested, lets give people more of it. Much more. So much icing it makes them sick. And my interest in European football - and with it, all football - waned as a result. Too much icing, no appetite for the nutritional stuff. That's how I feel about politics at the moment. It's exhausting. It's far too dramatic. There is too much of it. The scriptwriters have gone mad with excess. It has jumped the shark. Oh for the days when little really happened, and we could get madly interested in the unchangeability of the daily poll at 10.30pm, or wildly excited about whether or not the CoE would push through with raising VAT on pasties.
"The law of diminishing marginal returns is a theory in economics that predicts that after some optimal level of capacity is reached, adding an additional factor of production will actually result in smaller increases in output."
Investopedia.
Applies to everything. Know as 'the iron law'.
I have reached the point when I almost never watch sport at all. Excess of supply renders it all without meaning. Politics next.
You only risk “excess of supply” if you subscribe to all the sports channels.
Why subscribe if you don’t watch it?
(By the way, I think the theory that the odd rubbish match on a Sunday afternoon is better than world class football regularly is abject garbage)
Imo its over for the Tory party as is. The only question is how they split - Boris wins and there is a centrist split away under Rishi/Hunt (even though BJ is a centrist economically himself). Rishi/Penny wins and a Farage, Johnson, Spartan vehicle emerges. The latter is slightly less likely but still imo the most likely outcome
Not under FPTP, with PR maybe
I think you are almost certainly correct, but we are in new territory. My view is the Tory vote won't be this low (but I could be wrong) and also even if they do get wiped out they will have the organisation and money to recover (but again I could be wrong).
It is very, very hard to break the two main parties under FPTP, but it has happened in Scotland. As you say with PR a realignment is not only possible, but in my opinion likely for all parties.
The 2 main parties haven't even broken in Scotland, just they are now the 2 main Unionist parties with the SNP taking almost all nationalist votes
No no no, the Tories haven’t been broken in Scotland.
Has Boris gone favourite just off the back of Ben Wallace's statement? Who was Boris's campaign manager the 1st time round?
That's ridiculous. He's a clear lay now.
Disagree - he is deservedly favourite.
The polling shows he is the choice of the Tory membership.He still had 211 MPs backing him when he resigned - so he should get 100+ MPs to support him to be leader again.
I can't actually believe the IEA, which did so much to incubate the ideas in the mini-budget, encourage the PM/CX to adopt them, and cheerlead for them afterwards, is genuinely now going with the line that "real libertarianism was never really tried".
Astonishing to think that just four days ago the Conservative Party was beginning to inch towards returning to sanity by uniting around Jeremy Hunt's financial plans.
The fracking vote was a bloody stupid idea.
I'm not sure they had an option. Failing to contest it, giving Sir Keir control of the Commons agenda, would also have seen Truss forced to resign as PM immediately.
I meant it was a stupid idea from Starmer.
He could still be facing failing and utterly unpopular Truss next week rather than reborn Johnson.
Boris should return by boat so the humble people of Britain can organise a welcome home regatta. Just thousands and thousands of ordinary Brits, in sailboats and skiffs, expressing their love for the Big B
I like that idea as it means he wont be back to in time to sign his nomination papers and the sane amongst us can breath again.
So the Right get to welcome Johnson back and "own the libs and the Hampstead set" while the country suffers as a result. Are you PB Tories happy with that?
If Boris wins the leadership, do we think he will go to the country immediately seeking a renewed mandate, or try to cling on for the next two years and hope things turn around?
It may be smart to go to the country now, lose, and have Labour own the next few years of recession and pain. Before returning triumphant to Number 10 in 5 years time.
I just don't see what's in it for him to return to being PM for two more years, when whoever is in power is likely to be deeply unpopular due to the economic shitstorm that's heading our way.
I struggle to see how he could stumble on for anything like two years as he is, to say the least, not a unity candidate. As in 2019, I don't think he'd be in a position to govern and the only route would be to tell dissenting MPs to get lost and hold an election to provide some kind of personal mandate.
The problem compared with 2019 is that Corbyn isn't Labour leader, and it's unclear what he'd be asking for a mandate in order to do.
It feels to me to be absolute madness for Tory MPs to even contemplate Johnson, but there we are.
I suspect I’m not alone in having a sense of deep deep internal relief, knowing that The Boris is returning to the throne of Fair England
I imagine many churches will toll bells out of sheer jubilation, lofty maypoles will be erected in our towns, and the children will play their most joyous games, the king’s Jews will bake celebratory matzos in Stokey, and gays will embrace Muslims in the boulevards of Birmingham
GOD BE PRAISED
Free drink on the journos' train again today? Complete with mescal cactus and caterpillars in it?
Imo its over for the Tory party as is. The only question is how they split - Boris wins and there is a centrist split away under Rishi/Hunt (even though BJ is a centrist economically himself). Rishi/Penny wins and a Farage, Johnson, Spartan vehicle emerges. The latter is slightly less likely but still imo the most likely outcome
Not under FPTP, with PR maybe
I think you are almost certainly correct, but we are in new territory. My view is the Tory vote won't be this low (but I could be wrong) and also even if they do get wiped out they will have the organisation and money to recover (but again I could be wrong).
It is very, very hard to break the two main parties under FPTP, but it has happened in Scotland. As you say with PR a realignment is not only possible, but in my opinion likely for all parties.
The 2 main parties haven't even broken in Scotland, just they are now the 2 main Unionist parties with the SNP taking almost all nationalist votes
No no no, the Tories haven’t been broken in Scotland.
No siree! Not broken at all. The Tories are soaring… like a… stealthy capercaillie.
A temporary aberration due to the Truss disaster, even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019 and both he or Sunak would see an SCON bounce at least into double figures
I meant broken in the sense of the impact of FPTP. Both Labour and Tories in Scotland are currently like the LDs elsewhere. They pick up a few seats but are miles away from Government They are suffering under FPTP in Scotland just as the LDs do in the UK. After all that was the subject of the discussion. Of course things may change, but that is the current position.
I suspect I’m not alone in having a sense of deep deep internal relief, knowing that The Boris is returning to the throne of Fair England
I imagine many churches will toll bells out of sheer jubilation, lofty maypoles will be erected in our towns, and the children will play their most joyous games, the king’s Jews will bake celebratory matzos in Stokey, and gays will embrace Muslims in the boulevards of Birmingham
GOD BE PRAISED
Free drink on the journos' train again today? Complete with mescal cactus and caterpillars in it?
Astonishing to think that just four days ago the Conservative Party was beginning to inch towards returning to sanity by uniting around Jeremy Hunt's financial plans.
The fracking vote was a bloody stupid idea.
I'm not sure they had an option. Failing to contest it, giving Sir Keir control of the Commons agenda, would also have seen Truss forced to resign as PM immediately.
I meant it was a stupid idea from Starmer.
He could still be facing failing and utterly unpopular Truss next week rather than reborn Johnson.
Disagree. Truss was going to get booted out sooner or later, and it turns out that Boris was itching to get back in the hot seat so he was always going to be coming back, getting it done really quick means Boris has to own the next fiscal statement and the upcoming winter pain. And it's going to be a long winter, for us and for our politicians.
So the Right get to welcome Johnson back and "own the libs and the Hampstead set" while the country suffers as a result. Are you PB Tories happy with that?
To be honest many of the working class just want the liberal elite to suffer now if theyvthemselves are getting poorer
Future public finance exam question: "if Johnson's odds improving by 15% increase borrowing costs by 12bps, how much more will public spending need to be cut if he wins? Give answer to nearest £10 billion"
Lowest % to say they'd trust the Conservative Party to manage the economy we've ever recorded.
Which party do Britons trust the most to manage the economy? (16 October)
Labour 43% (+3) Conservative 15% (-5) Other Parties 16% (–) Don't know 27% (+3)
So the Right get to welcome Johnson back and "own the libs and the Hampstead set" while the country suffers as a result. Are you PB Tories happy with that?
Not sure there's many PB Tories left. If we are we're despairing.
Perhaps a Boris backer might explain how being an enabler and promoter of a sexual predator makes Johnson a fit and proper person to return as Prime Minister.
One good thing about Boris returning is that we get to crush him good and proper at a General Election. That will forever bury the shite which emanates from the likes of Leon.
Which means that those like the aforementioned and Badenoch and Braverman can continue raging against change but the country is moving on from the tories. I think everyone knows it.
LBC suggesting the clown camp is overstating his position and Sunak has a commanding lead
Also that the clown is apparently still on holiday
Is my feeling. Hype. Froth. Will be blown away, one way or another, over the next 72 hours.
The logical mechanistic way of analysing is often the way to go - and I can see why Johnson should be short if you do that - but this is one for the impressionistic Big Picture intuition approach.
I was wrong about 'free money' laying him though. It's going to pay off in the end but there's just a teeny bit of stress now, I'll fess to that.
Feels like my 2022 Trexit lays.
I think that might be overly influencing your betting here, Pulpy.
I suspect I’m not alone in having a sense of deep deep internal relief, knowing that The Boris is returning to the throne of Fair England
I imagine many churches will toll bells out of sheer jubilation, lofty maypoles will be erected in our towns, and the children will play their most joyous games, the king’s Jews will bake celebratory matzos in Stokey, and gays will embrace Muslims in the boulevards of Birmingham
GOD BE PRAISED
Maybe Johnson was indirectly right. Some journalists should be beaten up.
There will be a Stop Boris movement. Not just "Rishi supporters putting pressure on Penny supporters" as some (other) journalists like to write about, but a real Stop That B*stard in His Tracks Right Now movement. And before the voting starts on Monday. Perhaps complete with witness statements, videotapes, documents.
For those who enjoy chaos comedy, what would be hilarious is if Sunak says he's not running.
Has Boris gone favourite just off the back of Ben Wallace's statement? Who was Boris's campaign manager the 1st time round?
That's ridiculous. He's a clear lay now.
Disagree - he is deservedly favourite.
The polling shows he is the choice of the Tory membership.He still had 211 MPs backing him when he resigned - so he should get 100+ MPs to support him to be leader again.
No he didn't. He got 211 in the confidence vote in June, but the reason he went in July is it had clearly worsened for him such that, if there could have been an immediate confidence vote (and they were planning to change the rules to allow it) he'd have been well, well short of that.
Additionally, voting "yes" in a confidence vote isn't at all saying you'd nominate Johnson in a leadership election tomorrow. It's saying you don't want to go through a leadership election with a highly uncertain outcome (and the MPs who reasoned that way weren't wrong as it turns out).
I suspect I’m not alone in having a sense of deep deep internal relief, knowing that The Boris is returning to the throne of Fair England
I imagine many churches will toll bells out of sheer jubilation, lofty maypoles will be erected in our towns, and the children will play their most joyous games, the king’s Jews will bake celebratory matzos in Stokey, and gays will embrace Muslims in the boulevards of Birmingham
GOD BE PRAISED
Maybe Johnson was indirectly right. Some journalists should be beaten up.
There will be a Stop Boris movement. Not just "Rishi supporters putting pressure on Penny supporters" as some (other) journalists like to write about, but a real Stop That B*stard in His Tracks Right Now movement. And before the voting starts on Monday. Perhaps complete with witness statements, videotapes, documents.
For those who enjoy chaos comedy, what would be hilarious is if Sunak says he's not running.
LOL absolutely. I mean for the country, unmitigated disaster but we seem to have arrived at la-la land so in for a penny...
I can't actually believe the IEA, which did so much to incubate the ideas in the mini-budget, encourage the PM/CX to adopt them, and cheerlead for them afterwards, is genuinely now going with the line that "real libertarianism was never really tried".
One good thing about Boris returning is that we get to crush him good and proper at a General Election. That will forever bury the shite which emanates from the likes of Leon.
Which means that those like the aforementioned and Badenoch and Braverman can continue raging against change but the country is moving on from the tories. I think everyone knows it.
He wont be crushed..working class like my flooring guy loves him...they will love him more if he sorts out the migrant boat people
So Wallace rules himself out of the leadership, leaning towards Boris but waiting to see what Sunak has to say on defence.
With Johnson and Sunak well ahead on MP nominations now and Mordaunt trailing well behind it looks like a Johnson v Sunak race.
If Sunak ends up with most MPs support I would hope he would offer Boris a top job, eg Foreign Secretary again (Mordaunt could be Deputy PM). Boris could then take it and let Sunak lead the party to defeat but a respectable defeat rather than the humiliating defeat they were heading for.
Boris would then be in prime position to be Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer if he holds his seat or finds a safer seat.
Johnson couldn’t afford to limit his earnings by taking a job in the Cabinet. Anyway he will have to be sacked for misleading the House in a few weeks anyway.
That surely is a major stumbling block. How would the Tories deal with that?
Imo its over for the Tory party as is. The only question is how they split - Boris wins and there is a centrist split away under Rishi/Hunt (even though BJ is a centrist economically himself). Rishi/Penny wins and a Farage, Johnson, Spartan vehicle emerges. The latter is slightly less likely but still imo the most likely outcome
Not under FPTP, with PR maybe
I think you are almost certainly correct, but we are in new territory. My view is the Tory vote won't be this low (but I could be wrong) and also even if they do get wiped out they will have the organisation and money to recover (but again I could be wrong).
It is very, very hard to break the two main parties under FPTP, but it has happened in Scotland. As you say with PR a realignment is not only possible, but in my opinion likely for all parties.
The 2 main parties haven't even broken in Scotland, just they are now the 2 main Unionist parties with the SNP taking almost all nationalist votes
No no no, the Tories haven’t been broken in Scotland.
No siree! Not broken at all. The Tories are soaring… like a… stealthy capercaillie.
A temporary aberration due to the Truss disaster, even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019 and both he or Sunak would see an SCON bounce at least into double figures
I meant broken in the sense of the impact of FPTP. Both Labour and Tories in Scotland are currently like the LDs elsewhere. They pick up a few seats but are miles away from Government They are suffering under FPTP in Scotland just as the LDs do in the UK. After all that was the subject of the discussion. Of course things may change, but that is the current position.
Indeed.
However if as I expect Salmond stands Alba candidates against the SNP in every Scottish Westminster constituency at the next general election then that also splits the Nationalist vote under FPTP. Scottish Labour therefore as now the main Unionist party could likely pick up lots more SNP seats.
If the SC rules out an independence referendum without UK government agreement and Sturgeon rules out UDI still I expect Salmond to do just that
I suspect I’m not alone in having a sense of deep deep internal relief, knowing that The Boris is returning to the throne of Fair England
I imagine many churches will toll bells out of sheer jubilation, lofty maypoles will be erected in our towns, and the children will play their most joyous games, the king’s Jews will bake celebratory matzos in Stokey, and gays will embrace Muslims in the boulevards of Birmingham
If Boris wins the leadership, do we think he will go to the country immediately seeking a renewed mandate, or try to cling on for the next two years and hope things turn around?
It may be smart to go to the country now, lose, and have Labour own the next few years of recession and pain. Before returning triumphant to Number 10 in 5 years time.
I just don't see what's in it for him to return to being PM for two more years, when whoever is in power is likely to be deeply unpopular due to the economic shitstorm that's heading our way.
I struggle to see how he could stumble on for anything like two years as he is, to say the least, not a unity candidate. As in 2019, I don't think he'd be in a position to govern and the only route would be to tell dissenting MPs to get lost and hold an election to provide some kind of personal mandate.
The problem compared with 2019 is that Corbyn isn't Labour leader, and it's unclear what he'd be asking for a mandate in order to do.
It feels to me to be absolute madness for Tory MPs to even contemplate Johnson, but there we are.
I guess he can seek a mandate on the basis that because of the damage caused by his lockdowns (not that he'd put it that way, of course) that the economic backdrop is sufficiently different that a new mandate is required. If they can salvage 250 seats it would even be worth doing, both for the party which would survive, and for the country which would have an opposition big enough to at least challenge Sir Keir.
So Wallace rules himself out of the leadership, leaning towards Boris but waiting to see what Sunak has to say on defence.
With Johnson and Sunak well ahead on MP nominations now and Mordaunt trailing well behind it looks like a Johnson v Sunak race.
If Sunak ends up with most MPs support I would hope he would offer Boris a top job, eg Foreign Secretary again (Mordaunt could be Deputy PM). Boris could then take it and let Sunak lead the party to defeat but a respectable defeat rather than the humiliating defeat they were heading for.
Boris would then be in prime position to be Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer if he holds his seat or finds a safer seat.
Johnson couldn’t afford to limit his earnings by taking a job in the Cabinet. Anyway he will have to be sacked for misleading the House in a few weeks anyway.
That surely is a major stumbling block. How would the Tories deal with that?
Another leadership ballot. This time it's buggins' turn.
Laid Penny about 6.4 and rebacked at 17s so clawed back some of my hole there.
Total liability £500 now and all on Boris
Same - but I'm in for rather more. Still expecting to win though.
It's absurd. He hasn't declared, hasn't got the noms, the members aren't a total slam dunk for him, and there's massive noises about how he may find his premiership ungovernable if he does win.
That doesn't an odds-on favourite make. If people had their heads about them he'd still be 5/2 - at least.
I suspect I’m not alone in having a sense of deep deep internal relief, knowing that The Boris is returning to the throne of Fair England
I imagine many churches will toll bells out of sheer jubilation, lofty maypoles will be erected in our towns, and the children will play their most joyous games, the king’s Jews will bake celebratory matzos in Stokey, and gays will embrace Muslims in the boulevards of Birmingham
GOD BE PRAISED
Free drink on the journos' train again today? Complete with mescal cactus and caterpillars in it?
Make sure you don't miss outdoor adventures like hiking/biking trails, hunting and rock climbing, or hop on a bike for hire nearby and take a self-guided tour around Moab.
Forgetting for a second that it won't be happening, I can see 2 solid reasons (from the PoV of Con MPs) to pick Johnson:
He would probably retain more RW seats than any alternative. And - the bigger one - he would provide cover against the clamour for a GE since he has the mandate from 2019.
Against that there are the 857 reasons (per my spreadsheet) for not picking him.
Perhaps a Boris backer might explain how being an enabler and promoter of a sexual predator makes Johnson a fit and proper person to return as Prime Minister.
So Wallace rules himself out of the leadership, leaning towards Boris but waiting to see what Sunak has to say on defence.
With Johnson and Sunak well ahead on MP nominations now and Mordaunt trailing well behind it looks like a Johnson v Sunak race.
If Sunak ends up with most MPs support I would hope he would offer Boris a top job, eg Foreign Secretary again (Mordaunt could be Deputy PM). Boris could then take it and let Sunak lead the party to defeat but a respectable defeat rather than the humiliating defeat they were heading for.
Boris would then be in prime position to be Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer if he holds his seat or finds a safer seat.
Johnson couldn’t afford to limit his earnings by taking a job in the Cabinet. Anyway he will have to be sacked for misleading the House in a few weeks anyway.
That surely is a major stumbling block. How would the Tories deal with that?
Another leadership ballot. This time it's buggins' turn.
Mordaunt probably runs & wins. Rishi crying into his cornflakes yet again.
Laid Penny about 6.4 and rebacked at 17s so clawed back some of my hole there.
Total liability £500 now and all on Boris
Same - but I'm in for rather more. Still expecting to win though.
It's absurd. He hasn't declared, hasn't got the noms, the members aren't a total slam dunk for him, and there's massive noises about how he may find his premiership ungovernable if he does win.
That doesn't an odds-on favourite make. If people had their heads about them he'd still be 5/2 - at least.
Journos will be working on those other scandal stories that never came out - question is whether they can nail down anything substantive enough to publish within a week?
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
62 Rishi 58 Boris according to Guido (the latter figure somewhat suspect)
If we do end up with Rishi winning amongst MPs but Boris going all Trumpesque and insisting on a members' ballot, which he would win, then the Conservative Party, and the country, are heading into a chasm.
The list of declared Boris supporters contain many of the suspects who have wrecked their party and this country. Ideological nutters.
How much more of this must we take?
All PB Lab Centrists seem to not want a Boris comeback.
He is still the Tories only chance of an Electoral recovery.
I can't actually believe the IEA, which did so much to incubate the ideas in the mini-budget, encourage the PM/CX to adopt them, and cheerlead for them afterwards, is genuinely now going with the line that "real libertarianism was never really tried".
The fantasist/optimist/sunny uplands vs realist/pragmatist/managed decline is the real split in the Tory party, not left vs right or remain vs leave.
And it cannot be reconciled as we will never reach the sunny uplands, but it sounds a lot more fun than managed decline.
I don’t think managed decline is a fair assessment of what the country can realistically achieve tbh. We can build an enterprising and dynamic economy and we can build upon and demonstrate excellence in a number of growth sectors like tech and renewables, if we put our mind to it and the government support is there. There is also significant untapped growth potential in the regions with the right, targeted investment.
What we have learned is that the Trussian dream of a low-tax low-regulation powerhouse economy isn’t deliverable in the short to medium term (nor desirable for many people).
Government has to be there to help facilitate the country’s success and adaptation. For all his faults Boris understood this somewhat, he was just too lazy and if we’re going to honest many in his party didn’t have the will to really implement it.
Part of the problem is the belief that the UK doesn't make anything or do anything. Because industry can only consist of scantily clad men* in steelworks.
*Yes, indeed.
Precious metals, planes, cars, pharmaceuticals and petrol, it says here. Wouldn't have got any except cars and drugs.
Laid Penny about 6.4 and rebacked at 17s so clawed back some of my hole there.
Total liability £500 now and all on Boris
Same - but I'm in for rather more. Still expecting to win though.
It's absurd. He hasn't declared, hasn't got the noms, the members aren't a total slam dunk for him, and there's massive noises about how he may find his premiership ungovernable if he does win.
That doesn't an odds-on favourite make. If people had their heads about them he'd still be 5/2 - at least.
Journos will be working on those other scandal stories that never came out - question is whether they can nail down anything substantive enough to publish within a week?
They will sell enough papers this week regardless, why not hold it back for when he is PM and they are bigger stories.....
Laid Penny about 6.4 and rebacked at 17s so clawed back some of my hole there.
Total liability £500 now and all on Boris
Same - but I'm in for rather more. Still expecting to win though.
It's absurd. He hasn't declared, hasn't got the noms, the members aren't a total slam dunk for him, and there's massive noises about how he may find his premiership ungovernable if he does win.
That doesn't an odds-on favourite make. If people had their heads about them he'd still be 5/2 - at least.
Journos will be working on those other scandal stories that never came out - question is whether they can nail down anything substantive enough to publish within a week?
There's only one campaign that matters in the next 72: Sunak buttering up the Daily Mail.
The dinosaurs that read it (I include my parents) believe every word and will do what they're told.
62 Rishi 58 Boris according to Guido (the latter figure somewhat suspect)
If we do end up with Rishi winning amongst MPs but Boris going all Trumpesque and insisting on a members' ballot, which he would win, then the Conservative Party, and the country, are heading into a chasm.
The list of declared Boris supporters contain many of the suspects who have wrecked their party and this country. Ideological nutters.
How much more of this must we take?
All PB Lab Centrists seem to not want a Boris comeback.
He is still the Tories only chance of an Electoral recovery.
He’s the Tory’s most potent weapon. If he does return, Starmar would have to up his game.
Imo its over for the Tory party as is. The only question is how they split - Boris wins and there is a centrist split away under Rishi/Hunt (even though BJ is a centrist economically himself). Rishi/Penny wins and a Farage, Johnson, Spartan vehicle emerges. The latter is slightly less likely but still imo the most likely outcome
Not under FPTP, with PR maybe
I think you are almost certainly correct, but we are in new territory. My view is the Tory vote won't be this low (but I could be wrong) and also even if they do get wiped out they will have the organisation and money to recover (but again I could be wrong).
It is very, very hard to break the two main parties under FPTP, but it has happened in Scotland. As you say with PR a realignment is not only possible, but in my opinion likely for all parties.
The 2 main parties haven't even broken in Scotland, just they are now the 2 main Unionist parties with the SNP taking almost all nationalist votes
No no no, the Tories haven’t been broken in Scotland.
No siree! Not broken at all. The Tories are soaring… like a… stealthy capercaillie.
A temporary aberration due to the Truss disaster, even Boris got 25% in Scotland in 2019 and both he or Sunak would see an SCON bounce at least into double figures
I meant broken in the sense of the impact of FPTP. Both Labour and Tories in Scotland are currently like the LDs elsewhere. They pick up a few seats but are miles away from Government They are suffering under FPTP in Scotland just as the LDs do in the UK. After all that was the subject of the discussion. Of course things may change, but that is the current position.
Indeed.
However if as I expect Salmond stands Alba candidates against the SNP in every Scottish Westminster constituency at the next general election then that also splits the Nationalist vote under FPTP. Scottish Labour therefore as now the main Unionist party could likely pick up lots more SNP seats.
If the SC rules out an independence referendum without UK government agreement and Sturgeon rules out UDI still I expect Salmond to do just that
That is something I have wondered about. I am assuming in most places he will get a nominal vote and not dent the SNP vote (although a worry for them), but where they have MPs it could be a different matter. I don't know how many defectors there are or whether they are standing.
62 Rishi 58 Boris according to Guido (the latter figure somewhat suspect)
If we do end up with Rishi winning amongst MPs but Boris going all Trumpesque and insisting on a members' ballot, which he would win, then the Conservative Party, and the country, are heading into a chasm.
The list of declared Boris supporters contain many of the suspects who have wrecked their party and this country. Ideological nutters.
How much more of this must we take?
All PB Lab Centrists seem to not want a Boris comeback.
He is still the Tories only chance of an Electoral recovery.
So in summary, Starmer will have some explaining to do again?
I can't actually believe the IEA, which did so much to incubate the ideas in the mini-budget, encourage the PM/CX to adopt them, and cheerlead for them afterwards, is genuinely now going with the line that "real libertarianism was never really tried".
They aren't exactly going to shut up shop though, are they? They have to come up with an explanatory narrative and this is their only option.
Two things are simultaneously true:
- A small state agenda hasn't been tried properly. Truss was incompetent and tried to combine tax cuts with energy subsidies.
- A small state agenda isn't electorally popular at the moment. Most people don't think the state is too big or that tax is too high.
I think a small state is only electorally credible in a society where most people are pretty well off, able to afford their own cover most of the time and the state gets in the way and pisses them off.
Therefore, if the Tories want that (and I do) they need to first make everyone much better off and then go for the smaller state - not the other way round.
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth Hearing Laura Pidcock, once viewed as a successor to Jeremy Corbyn as leader, has quit the Labour Party. It's not clear why.
“It’s not clear why”
Because it’s about to win an election?
Maybe, she and Corbyn and a whole raft of Momentum nutters could set up a "Real Labour Party" to confuse voters into reelecting Boris Johnson's Conservatives in GE2024.
Perhaps a Boris backer might explain how being an enabler and promoter of a sexual predator makes Johnson a fit and proper person to return as Prime Minister.
Not a Boris backer, but presumably "it's all bants, he's a laugh, some people are so uptight these days", or "the greatness of great men means we little people must excuse them great pecadilloes".
Or both.
(And yes, great pecadilloes is a contradiction in terms, I know.)
Comments
It may be smart to go to the country now, lose, and have Labour own the next few years of recession and pain. Before returning triumphant to Number 10 in 5 years time.
I just don't see what's in it for him to return to being PM for two more years, when whoever is in power is likely to be deeply unpopular due to the economic shitstorm that's heading our way.
MPs are now suggesting that even if Boris Johnson wins, things will quickly disintegrate.
Tories predicting mass resignations, meaning Truss would be unable to tell King Charles III that he commands the confidence of a majority of MPs
https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1583422713624133632
Seem to be the trustees of the campaign set up as a charity to take the dosh.
https://www.scotsman.com/whats-on/arts-and-entertainment/war-of-words-erupts-after-king-charles-official-sculptor-wins-elsie-inglis-commission-for-royal-mile-3884945
In another world Pidcock could have got to No.10, tried to roll out her vision, and experienced a similar fate to Truss.
The SSP is defunct. Tommy Sheridan is a member of Alba.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/tommy-sheridan-has-joined-alex-salmonds-alba-party-3181481
Which party do voters trust the most on...? (Labour | the Conservatives)
The NHS (49% | 13%)
Tackling poverty (49% | 11%)
Manage the economy (43% | 15%)
Immigration (37% | 17%)
Ukraine (31% | 23%) https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1583427979727622147/photo/1
"The law of diminishing marginal returns is a theory in economics that predicts that after some optimal level of capacity is reached, adding an additional factor of production will actually result in smaller increases in output."
Investopedia.
Applies to everything. Know as 'the iron law'.
I have reached the point when I almost never watch sport at all. Excess of supply renders it all without meaning. Politics next.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJvTEwvuuzs
This is really "Sunak, its a no from me", as he didn't back Ukraine strongly enough.
Wine in the Moab Hoodoo hotel
An excellent hotel, btw, if you are in the area
https://www.booking.com/Share-B9Hi1U
If we do end up with Rishi winning amongst MPs but Boris going all Trumpesque and insisting on a members' ballot, which he would win, then the Conservative Party, and the country, are heading into a chasm.
The list of declared Boris supporters contain many of the suspects who have wrecked their party and this country. Ideological nutters.
How much more of this must we take?
There are the remains of a suitable anchorhold at St Anne's, Lewis to keep him safe and confined - from where he could watch his giant image being burnt on Bonfire Night
Even Sunak would have maybe 310 in favour 340 against.
An early election is the only answer for either, especially Bozo.
He could still be facing failing and utterly unpopular Truss next week rather than reborn Johnson.
Insane to have pushed a PM out rather than wait until Hunt could reveal his plans, but there we go.
Why subscribe if you don’t watch it?
(By the way, I think the theory that the odd rubbish match on a Sunday afternoon is better than world class football regularly is abject garbage)
Total liability £500 now and all on Boris
Labour must be so proud to be in partnership with them on nine Scottish councils.
The polling shows he is the choice of the Tory membership.He still had 211 MPs backing him when he resigned - so he should get 100+ MPs to support him to be leader again.
I can't actually believe the IEA, which did so much to incubate the ideas in the mini-budget, encourage the PM/CX to adopt them, and cheerlead for them afterwards, is genuinely now going with the line that "real libertarianism was never really tried".
You broke it. You own it. https://twitter.com/Will_Tanner/status/1583376637416308737/photo/1
Total liability is £500 and all on Johnson.
The problem compared with 2019 is that Corbyn isn't Labour leader, and it's unclear what he'd be asking for a mandate in order to do.
It feels to me to be absolute madness for Tory MPs to even contemplate Johnson, but there we are.
One of the best annualised return betting tips in the history of PB.
Lowest % to say they'd trust the Conservative Party to manage the economy we've ever recorded.
Which party do Britons trust the most to manage the economy? (16 October)
Labour 43% (+3)
Conservative 15% (-5)
Other Parties 16% (–)
Don't know 27% (+3)
Changes +/- 9 October https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1583431726855991296/photo/1
Which means that those like the aforementioned and Badenoch and Braverman can continue raging against change but the country is moving on from the tories. I think everyone knows it.
Be careful.
For those who enjoy chaos comedy, what would be hilarious is if Sunak says he's not running.
Meanwhile Wallace was Johnson’s seconder when he stood in 2019 - now he’s “leaning towards”. In canvassing terms that’s from definite to probable.
Indeed most decent canvassers wouldn’t put “leaning towards” down even as probable.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63344059
Additionally, voting "yes" in a confidence vote isn't at all saying you'd nominate Johnson in a leadership election tomorrow. It's saying you don't want to go through a leadership election with a highly uncertain outcome (and the MPs who reasoned that way weren't wrong as it turns out).
However if as I expect Salmond stands Alba candidates against the SNP in every Scottish Westminster constituency at the next general election then that also splits the Nationalist vote under FPTP. Scottish Labour therefore as now the main Unionist party could likely pick up lots
more SNP seats.
If the SC rules out an independence referendum without UK government agreement and Sturgeon rules out UDI still I expect Salmond to do just that
https://twitter.com/a_drewsky/status/1583082040932474880/photo/1
At least it's free warmth.
That doesn't an odds-on favourite make. If people had their heads about them he'd still be 5/2 - at least.
Make sure you don't miss outdoor adventures like hiking/biking trails, hunting and rock climbing, or hop on a bike for hire nearby and take a self-guided tour around Moab.
He would probably retain more RW seats than any alternative. And - the bigger one - he would provide cover against the clamour for a GE since he has the mandate from 2019.
Against that there are the 857 reasons (per my spreadsheet) for not picking him.
He is still the Tories only chance of an Electoral recovery.
- A small state agenda hasn't been tried properly. Truss was incompetent and tried to combine tax cuts with energy subsidies.
- A small state agenda isn't electorally popular at the moment. Most people don't think the state is too big or that tax is too high.
The dinosaurs that read it (I include my parents) believe every word and will do what they're told.
Therefore, if the Tories want that (and I do) they need to first make everyone much better off and then go for the smaller state - not the other way round.
Or both.
(And yes, great pecadilloes is a contradiction in terms, I know.)
https://twitter.com/MxHollyClara/status/1583335514261725184/photo/1