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The Tory leadership will be decided in the nomination race – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 3 in General
imageThe Tory leadership will be decided in the nomination race – politicalbetting.com

The pressure is on CON MPs not to let the next leader to be decided in a membership ballot which is good for Sunak. They’ll try to soak up enough nominations that prevents others getting to the 100 target. If it goes to a ballot then Johnson will have a better chance of winning.

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Comments

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322
    edited October 21
    1st like Boris??
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    Fpt
    Imo its over for the Tory party as is. The only question is how they split - Boris wins and there is a centrist split away under Rishi/Hunt (even though BJ is a centrist economically himself). Rishi/Penny wins and a Farage, Johnson, Spartan vehicle emerges.
    The latter is slightly less likely but still imo the most likely outcome
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,021
    edited October 21
    The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044

    The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)

    Will she support Sunak or Johnson?
  • The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)

    Its Boris v Rishi and the odds are wrong. Boris is the firm favourite .Back Boris
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    Just posting this here as lost in the last thread. The lowest ever Conservative share of the vote (14%) would produce this according to a straight Electoral Calculus plug in:



    Unlikely, probably extremely unlikely. But the way the party is behaving I would rule out nothing right now. I don't see them unifying around one candidate. Indeed, I could see factional breakaways. The Right for example might decide to force an election, break off and team up with Farage. The ERG could become the official opposition.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,021
    Andy_JS said:

    The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)

    Will she support Sunak or Johnson?
    I suspect neither (publicly)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    edited October 21
    He is risen.
    40 days and 40 nights in the wilderness.
    The greatest comeback since Lazarus.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044

    The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)

    Its Boris v Rishi and the odds are wrong. Boris is the firm favourite .Back Boris
    Why do you think so?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 21

    Andy_JS said:

    The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)

    Will she support Sunak or Johnson?
    I suspect neither (publicly)
    She has dropped in my estimation for many months. Her backtracking on liberal social issues was dreadful. She should have stood up to the membership and called them out for what they are: ante-diluvian morons. She was also weaker than I expected to be in the debates.

    But she's also very foolish on this latest iteration of PM musical chairs. If yesterday she had backed Sunak and made a dream team of her as Foreign Secretary with probably Hunt remaining Chancellor they would have waltzed this election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Heathener said:

    Just posting this here as lost in the last thread. The lowest ever Conservative share of the vote (14%) would produce this according to a straight Electoral Calculus plug in:



    Unlikely, probably extremely unlikely. But the way the party is behaving I would rule out nothing right now. I don't see them unifying around one candidate. Indeed, I could see factional breakaways. The Right for example might decide to force an election, break off and team up with Farage. The ERG could become the official opposition.

    I'd be amazed if Labour swept Essex and Lincolnshire.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    AlistairM said:

    Fair point.

    I think it’s fairly undeniable that on fiscal matters Rishi Sunak is to the right of Boris Johnson.

    Yet the right of the party are backing the lefty and the left of the party are backing the righty.

    Funny old world.

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1583198101753380864

    The fantasist/optimist/sunny uplands vs realist/pragmatist/managed decline is the real split in the Tory party, not left vs right or remain vs leave.

    And it cannot be reconciled as we will never reach the sunny uplands, but it sounds a lot more fun than managed decline.
    I don’t think managed decline is a fair assessment of what the country can realistically achieve tbh. We can build an enterprising and dynamic economy and we can build upon and demonstrate excellence in a number of growth sectors like tech and renewables, if we put our mind to it and the government support is there. There is also significant untapped growth potential in the regions with the right, targeted investment.

    What we have learned is that the Trussian dream of a low-tax low-regulation powerhouse economy isn’t deliverable in the short to medium term (nor desirable for many people).

    Government has to be there to help facilitate the country’s success and adaptation. For all his faults Boris understood this somewhat, he was just too lazy and if we’re going to honest many in his party didn’t have the will to really implement it.

    Part of the problem is the belief that the UK doesn't make anything or do anything. Because industry can only consist of scantily clad men* in steelworks.

    *Yes, indeed.
    Precious metals, planes, cars, pharmaceuticals and petrol, it says here. Wouldn't have got any except cars and drugs.
  • Andy_JS said:

    The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)

    Its Boris v Rishi and the odds are wrong. Boris is the firm favourite .Back Boris
    Why do you think so?
    Members want him and they will put pressure on Mps. Redwall Mps know hes the only one who can save their jobs. Its in the tories self interest to have him back
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882

    Andy_JS said:

    The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)

    Its Boris v Rishi and the odds are wrong. Boris is the firm favourite .Back Boris
    Why do you think so?
    Members want him and they will put pressure on Mps. Redwall Mps know hes the only one who can save their jobs. Its in the tories self interest to have him back
    Not the blue wall though ...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,520
    Andy_JS said:

    The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)

    Will she support Sunak or Johnson?
    She will most likely be the front runner post the GE as LoTo. So whichever gives the best base for that withthe public.

    Back Boris and she will be tainted with him forever.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    There's that bit in Death of Stalin where the father is released from the gulag and meets the eye of the son who betrayed him. Gonna be a bit of that if Bojo returns.
  • Heathener said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)

    Its Boris v Rishi and the odds are wrong. Boris is the firm favourite .Back Boris
    Why do you think so?
    Members want him and they will put pressure on Mps. Redwall Mps know hes the only one who can save their jobs. Its in the tories self interest to have him back
    Not the blue wall though ...
    No but blue wall mps tend to have larger majorities anyway
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    edited October 21
    Heathener said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)

    Its Boris v Rishi and the odds are wrong. Boris is the firm favourite .Back Boris
    Why do you think so?
    Members want him and they will put pressure on Mps. Redwall Mps know hes the only one who can save their jobs. Its in the tories self interest to have him back
    Not the blue wall though ...
    The split will be according to size of mortgage I think.

    OO/Small mortgage = Boris
    Big Mortgage = Hunt, I mean Rishi.

    That will broadly correlate with blue (large) / red (Small) mortgages.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044
    The MPs' indicative vote will probably go in favour of Sunak. But will his lead be large enough to sway the members?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882

    The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)

    Its Boris v Rishi and the odds are wrong. Boris is the firm favourite .Back Boris
    I see you are a new poster. Hmmm. Sean resurrected?

    I don't agree with you. It's by no means guaranteed that Boris will get to 100.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,520

    Andy_JS said:

    The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)

    Its Boris v Rishi and the odds are wrong. Boris is the firm favourite .Back Boris
    Why do you think so?
    Members want him and they will put pressure on Mps. Redwall Mps know hes the only one who can save their jobs. Its in the tories self interest to have him back
    If Boris comes back I will never vote Tory for a long long time. (speaking as someone in a Blue Wall seat).

    The Membership is only 80k odd people. They voted for Truss and put this into motion. Tory MPs would do very well not listening to the membership and listen to the general public.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,046
    If there are really only two candidates and one is Sunak, Johnson can easily get to 100. Right?
  • StarryStarry Posts: 97
    JRM's BorisOrBust suggests to me that the ERG will not unite around any other candidates, i.e. Rishi.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    EPG said:

    If there are really only two candidates and one is Sunak, Johnson can easily get to 100. Right?

    Some commentators say he has a ceiling of around 70.

    I am unconvinced. Johnson will be PM by Friday. Utterly depressing.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 9,956
    edited October 21

    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.

    COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
    Probably but not necessarily, because demographics are very different between now and 1968. There's a lot more "low hanging fruit" that were exposed to Covid19 than there were of the same demographic in 68.

    There are well over twice as many over 65s in the world today than there were in 1968.

    Given the way that Covid strikes based on age, it would have been far less deadly in 1968 than now.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    EPG said:

    If there are really only two candidates and one is Sunak, Johnson can easily get to 100. Right?

    Wrong
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    ((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,841
    BBC tracking named candidate backers in its own typically cautious way:

    Sunak 44, Johnson 23, Mordaunt 16

    This rate of conversion would scale up to Johnson getting 99 nominations.

    Of course, everyone's doing this.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Johnson be back in No 10? Interesting chat with Cab min who thinks BJ cld hit 100 threshold, & if he does thinks he’s back. “I’d expect him to get to 100. Even MPs who resigned from his govt were on terrace y’day telling colleagues they’d now back him & members definitely will”

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1583342687998324737
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,046
    Heathener said:

    EPG said:

    If there are really only two candidates and one is Sunak, Johnson can easily get to 100. Right?

    Wrong
    So Sunak can get to 250?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Is Boris going to have to lie to another monarch? He has to say he commands a majority of the house: how will he know that given existing threats to cross the floor/resign the whip if he gets in?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,697
    Bozo could be 150 behind Sunak on the MP ballot and still insist on it going to the membership.

    He only cares about himself.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    Pro_Rata said:

    BBC tracking named candidate backers in its own typically cautious way:

    Sunak 44, Johnson 23, Mordaunt 16

    .

    To be fair, Conservative Home, followed by the Daily Mail, also have the current tally with Sunak well out in front.

    Sunak 35
    Johnson 19
    Mordaunt 11

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/10/21/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-sunak-in-front-johnson-a-close-second-with-mordaunt-a-distant-third/

    I'm not sure I totally trust Guido's tally but not because he has Johnson in front. More because he goes by tittle tattle and hearsay whereas actual declarations are a very different entity.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    Starry said:

    JRM's BorisOrBust suggests to me that the ERG will not unite around any other candidates, i.e. Rishi.

    JRM wanting Boris is yet another sign to Tory MPs that they should vote for ABB (Anyone But Boris ...

    JRM (and the wider ERG) are a pox on the party.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,313
    EPG said:

    If there are really only two candidates and one is Sunak, Johnson can easily get to 100. Right?

    Yes, but will about 45 Tory MPs accept him....
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,520
    Starry said:

    JRM's BorisOrBust suggests to me that the ERG will not unite around any other candidates, i.e. Rishi.

    Of course not, they're wedded to their discredited fantasy politics and economics.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Noa Hoffman
    @hoffman_noa
    Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Is Boris going to have to lie to another monarch? He has to say he commands a majority of the house: how will he know that given existing threats to cross the floor/resign the whip if he gets in?

    Under that logic no candidate can be Prime Minister.

    The Tory Party has become fundamentally ungovernable and unfit for office. Completely divided and the idea all the problems will magically vanish if only [speaker's preferred candidate] gets in is absurd.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    He's the bad news cheating ex boyfriend that the Tories keep crawling back to no matter how badly he behaves isn't he ?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,527
    JRM was almost right about "Boris or Bust". He actually meant "Boris then Bust".

    Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1583392955796029440
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,410

    ((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.

    I think most of these Tory MPs are chatting shit. If Johnson came back the majority of them would just bite the pillow and take it. And back him when the privileges committee finds against him, assuming that's even allowed to happen. If he comes back - and the banter heuristic says he surely will - then it will be his party to do what he wants with.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,520

    Noa Hoffman
    @hoffman_noa
    Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson

    They'll trash anything and everything... disgusting people.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    ((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.

    As noted above Boris might not make it to PM because he might win contest BUT not be able to tell HMK he has maj.

    GE 2022, SKS next PM both available at 100/1 0r longer
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882

    ((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.

    Yep I think this is a real situation. The party would split and they would be hammered in the election.

    The whole issue of him coming up before the Commons Privileges Committee will focus minds.

    I'm expecting tory MPs to come to their senses, pull back from the brink, and put Rishi Sunak way out in front.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,841
    Heathener said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)

    Will she support Sunak or Johnson?
    I suspect neither (publicly)
    She has dropped in my estimation for many months. Her backtracking on liberal social issues was dreadful. She should have stood up to the membership and called them out for what they are: ante-diluvian morons. She was also weaker than I expected to be in the debates.

    But she's also very foolish on this latest iteration of PM musical chairs. If yesterday she had backed Sunak and made a dream team of her as Foreign Secretary with probably Hunt remaining Chancellor they would have waltzed this election.
    If the best way to block Boris is make him work for his 100 nominations, it occurs to me that Rishi might actually want Penny to stand.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,410
    Pulpstar said:

    He's the bad news cheating ex boyfriend that the Tories keep crawling back to no matter how badly he behaves isn't he ?

    Yes. Ironically a metaphorical and literal cheating boyfriend.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472

    EPG said:

    If there are really only two candidates and one is Sunak, Johnson can easily get to 100. Right?

    Yes, but will about 45 Tory MPs accept him....
    I'd imagine that he'll want to persuade Hunt and Schapps to remain in their posts. If he can do that then I suspect fewer MPs would be inclined to do anything really dramatic.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,321
    Heathener said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    BBC tracking named candidate backers in its own typically cautious way:

    Sunak 44, Johnson 23, Mordaunt 16

    .

    To be fair, Conservative Home, followed by the Daily Mail, also have the current tally with Sunak well out in front.

    Sunak 35
    Johnson 19
    Mordaunt 11

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/10/21/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-sunak-in-front-johnson-a-close-second-with-mordaunt-a-distant-third/

    I'm not sure I totally trust Guido's tally but not because he has Johnson in front. More because he goes by tittle tattle and hearsay whereas actual declarations are a very different entity.

    I checked with some people in the know, Guido's figures make sense. You could work out the implication before he got rid of the descriptors.

    What it does mean is that Boris's backers have come out early.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 21

    ((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.

    the majority of them would just bite the pillow and take it.
    That's disgusting. Kindly edit it.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,841
    Ishmael_Z said:

    ((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.

    As noted above Boris might not make it to PM because he might win contest BUT not be able to tell HMK he has maj.

    GE 2022, SKS next PM both available at 100/1 0r longer
    If he cannot ascend as PM, could Liz Truss yet get close to George Canning??!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    Mr. kinabalu, I'm inclined to agree. It would be an act of terminal insanity to return the crown to the clown.

    Crown the clown and you go down and
    cause a frown, get out of town!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,268
    Pro_Rata said:

    Heathener said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)

    Will she support Sunak or Johnson?
    I suspect neither (publicly)
    She has dropped in my estimation for many months. Her backtracking on liberal social issues was dreadful. She should have stood up to the membership and called them out for what they are: ante-diluvian morons. She was also weaker than I expected to be in the debates.

    But she's also very foolish on this latest iteration of PM musical chairs. If yesterday she had backed Sunak and made a dream team of her as Foreign Secretary with probably Hunt remaining Chancellor they would have waltzed this election.
    If the best way to block Boris is make him work for his 100 nominations, it occurs to me that Rishi might actually want Penny to stand.
    I agree. If Penny drops out and backs Rishi, some of her supporters will move to Boris. She needs to stay in the race to help prevent Boris getting to 100, ideally getting over 100 herself.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,225
    One thing bothering me is, what's the positive case for Sunak?

    The positive case for Boris is easy to state (even if misleading or outdated): he's a proven election winner, and the Tories' majority is his mandate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465
    Heathener said:

    ((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.

    Yep I think this is a real situation. The party would split and they would be hammered in the election.

    The whole issue of him coming up before the Commons Privileges Committee will focus minds.

    I'm expecting tory MPs to come to their senses, pull back from the brink, and put Rishi Sunak way out in front.
    I dont see why they'd care about the privileges committee - theyll just criticise the process.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,210
    Pulpstar said:

    Heathener said:

    Just posting this here as lost in the last thread. The lowest ever Conservative share of the vote (14%) would produce this according to a straight Electoral Calculus plug in:



    Unlikely, probably extremely unlikely. But the way the party is behaving I would rule out nothing right now. I don't see them unifying around one candidate. Indeed, I could see factional breakaways. The Right for example might decide to force an election, break off and team up with Farage. The ERG could become the official opposition.

    I'd be amazed if Labour swept Essex and Lincolnshire.
    Yes. The Conservatives are so strong there that it’s the only place I could ever see a split happening, and succeeding: if the Essex MPs departed en masse and set themselves up as a new right-wing populist party.

    But that would require Sunak or Mordaunt to win and then govern from the centre, which I don’t think will happen.

    Any other split would implode at the first contact with the ballot box.
  • Noa Hoffman
    @hoffman_noa
    Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson

    This is a good story to plant if you want to scare people off backing Boris.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    ((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.

    I think most of these Tory MPs are chatting shit. If Johnson came back the majority of them would just bite the pillow and take it. And back him when the privileges committee finds against him, assuming that's even allowed to happen. If he comes back - and the banter heuristic says he surely will - then it will be his party to do what he wants with.
    Most of the time people just don't follow through. Just think of all those once never Trumpers who now kiss the ring.

    It was notable the talk of 'treason' when Boris was ousted. He literally believes they owe him fealty, not that he served at behest of the party.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Noa Hoffman
    @hoffman_noa
    Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson

    They'll trash anything and everything... disgusting people.
    He returns and immediately the further poisoning and corruption of public life begins.

    And he's not even off the bloody plane yet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    Starry said:

    JRM's BorisOrBust suggests to me that the ERG will not unite around any other candidates, i.e. Rishi.

    JRM wanting Boris is yet another sign to Tory MPs that they should vote for ABB (Anyone But Boris ...

    JRM (and the wider ERG) are a pox on the party.
    More like some terrible genetic condition which flares up every few generations.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,410
    Heathener said:

    ((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.

    the majority of them would just bite the pillow and take it.
    That's disgusting. Kindly edit it.
    Sorry for offending you. It doesn't seem an unreasonable metaphor for the Tory party's abusive relationship with Boris Johnson. I would be happy to edit it to avoid offending you or anyone else but unfortunately I can't as the window has passed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    1st like Boris??

    If he gets the nominations, yes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    Fpt
    Imo its over for the Tory party as is. The only question is how they split - Boris wins and there is a centrist split away under Rishi/Hunt (even though BJ is a centrist economically himself). Rishi/Penny wins and a Farage, Johnson, Spartan vehicle emerges.
    The latter is slightly less likely but still imo the most likely outcome

    It will not split under FPTP, only under PR is that realistic.

    Labour would also split then with Corbynites forming a new Left party
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882

    Heathener said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    BBC tracking named candidate backers in its own typically cautious way:

    Sunak 44, Johnson 23, Mordaunt 16

    .

    To be fair, Conservative Home, followed by the Daily Mail, also have the current tally with Sunak well out in front.

    Sunak 35
    Johnson 19
    Mordaunt 11

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/10/21/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-sunak-in-front-johnson-a-close-second-with-mordaunt-a-distant-third/

    I'm not sure I totally trust Guido's tally but not because he has Johnson in front. More because he goes by tittle tattle and hearsay whereas actual declarations are a very different entity.

    I checked with some people in the know, Guido's figures make sense.
    Well then you'll be interested to know that Guido now has Sunak in front.

    (And 1/3rd of Guido's declarations for Boris are anonymous.)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,569
    Has Boris even said he is standing?
  • Has Boris even said he is standing?

    Not yet.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,520

    Has Boris even said he is standing?

    If JRM has that twitter graphic it's set up. He woudn't have done if he hadn't talked to Boris.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882

    Noa Hoffman
    @hoffman_noa
    Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson

    This is a good story to plant if you want to scare people off backing Boris.
    Ah another bot declaring that Boris is the Messiah appears on here

    How coincidental
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    Heathener said:

    ((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.

    Yep I think this is a real situation. The party would split and they would be hammered in the election.

    The whole issue of him coming up before the Commons Privileges Committee will focus minds.

    I'm expecting tory MPs to come to their senses, pull back from the brink, and put Rishi Sunak way out in front.
    I cashed out of my Boris bets this morning with a bit of a profit. He is either going to have enough MPs or not, so will either become the overwhelming favourite or crash out completely. It is all just too chaotic for my liking.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    kle4 said:

    Starry said:

    JRM's BorisOrBust suggests to me that the ERG will not unite around any other candidates, i.e. Rishi.

    JRM wanting Boris is yet another sign to Tory MPs that they should vote for ABB (Anyone But Boris ...

    JRM (and the wider ERG) are a pox on the party.
    More like some terrible genetic condition which flares up every few generations.
    They've been infesting the party since before Major's time. They helped bring down Thatcher. They brought down Major, Cameron, and May.

    I think I currently despise them and their mania more than Corbyn. At least Corbyn is honest(-ish) to his own stated values...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited October 21

    Pulpstar said:

    Heathener said:

    Just posting this here as lost in the last thread. The lowest ever Conservative share of the vote (14%) would produce this according to a straight Electoral Calculus plug in:



    Unlikely, probably extremely unlikely. But the way the party is behaving I would rule out nothing right now. I don't see them unifying around one candidate. Indeed, I could see factional breakaways. The Right for example might decide to force an election, break off and team up with Farage. The ERG could become the official opposition.

    I'd be amazed if Labour swept Essex and Lincolnshire.
    Yes. The Conservatives are so strong there that it’s the only place I could ever see a split happening, and succeeding: if the Essex MPs departed en masse and set themselves up as a new right-wing populist party.

    But that would require Sunak or Mordaunt to win and then govern from the centre, which I don’t think will happen.

    Any other split would implode at the first contact with the ballot box.
    Harlow MP Halfon was a Sunak supporter and Burghardt, Cleverly Ford, Laing, Quince, Baron, Metcalfe, Watling, Whittingdale, Doyle Price etc are not hard right.

    Only Badenoch and Francois and Patel of Essex MPs are really ERG and hard right
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,361
    edited October 21
    @CWhittaker_MP
    For clarity my name appeared on
    @GuidoFawkes
    last night as a supporter of the
    @BorisJohnson
    campaign. At NO POINT have I contacted Guido. As DCW I have to maintain the integrity, authority and impartiality of the office. Correction from Guido expected and appreciated


    https://mobile.twitter.com/CWhittaker_MP/status/1583392419554693120
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,321
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    BBC tracking named candidate backers in its own typically cautious way:

    Sunak 44, Johnson 23, Mordaunt 16

    .

    To be fair, Conservative Home, followed by the Daily Mail, also have the current tally with Sunak well out in front.

    Sunak 35
    Johnson 19
    Mordaunt 11

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/10/21/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-sunak-in-front-johnson-a-close-second-with-mordaunt-a-distant-third/

    I'm not sure I totally trust Guido's tally but not because he has Johnson in front. More because he goes by tittle tattle and hearsay whereas actual declarations are a very different entity.

    I checked with some people in the know, Guido's figures make sense.
    Well then you'll be interested to know that Guido now has Sunak in front.

    (And 1/3rd of Guido's declarations for Boris are anonymous.)
    I am. Though plenty more to come!

    For clarity, I don't think that Boris has got 150 backers or whatever nonsense was spouted earlier. Merely that he has at least the 52 backers that Guido thinks he has.
  • Heathener said:

    Noa Hoffman
    @hoffman_noa
    Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson

    This is a good story to plant if you want to scare people off backing Boris.
    Ah another bot declaring that Boris is the Messiah appears on here

    How coincidental
    whoa! I am definitely no Boris fan, I think it's bad for political life in the UK if a fraud like him can just strut back into power like this!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    Has Boris even said he is standing?

    If JRM has that twitter graphic it's set up. He woudn't have done if he hadn't talked to Boris.
    It's all very implausible deniability from him. It takes seconds to tweet if he was not interested in running, and the others too. So it's just relying on proxies and it looks like it wont work lo and behold he never wanted it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Rob Ford 💙💛
    @robfordmancs
    So the idea of Bring Back Boris has only a few small flaws: He isn't popular. He never was. He can't govern. He can't unify. Scandal & chaos follows him wherever he goes. And enough Con MPs know all of this to leave him unable to govern from day 1.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    Heathener said:

    Noa Hoffman
    @hoffman_noa
    Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson

    This is a good story to plant if you want to scare people off backing Boris.
    Ah another bot declaring that Boris is the Messiah appears on here

    How coincidental
    Given God's actions in the bible, and the horrors we see happening around the world, perhaps Johnson being the Messiah would fit in well? Like Father, like Son...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977
    Driver said:

    One thing bothering me is, what's the positive case for Sunak?

    The positive case for Boris is easy to state (even if misleading or outdated): he's a proven election winner, and the Tories' majority is his mandate.

    The positive case for Sunak is that he represents the Cameron/Clegg style of politics and will make people who miss that feel less embarrassed to support the Tories.

    The question is how viable that approach is given the political realignment since Cameron was PM.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,695
    Heathener said:

    Noa Hoffman
    @hoffman_noa
    Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson

    This is a good story to plant if you want to scare people off backing Boris.
    Ah another bot declaring that Boris is the Messiah appears on here

    How coincidental
    Coming from someone who many on here accused of being a "bot" or "troll" or somesuch I am disappointed that you seem to be handing out the same treatment to another poster.

    Engage with what they say or don't respond to them would be my advice.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 21
    Driver said:

    One thing bothering me is, what's the positive case for Sunak?

    He's a steadying hand. He knows the economy, which is the most important situation facing the country right now. You know, actual people rather than the febrile corridors of Westminster. So the markets will be happy. Which also means that mortgages will settle. And he will attempt to tackle inflation. He has also shown that he has a compassionate side. His giveaways might have infuriated the Nazis of Northcliffe but for most people it was well received.

    He's the safest way of leaving the Conservatives with sufficient MPs after the election to rebuild their brand.

    Johnson 'could' pull something off but he's far more likely to cause utter devastation ... to his party, to politics generally, and to the country.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 251
    edited October 21
    Just a thought - nobody has actually declared yet.

    Johnson might think twice - if it looks like he loses either now or at an immediate GE, he may prefer to wait and return in triumph as LOTO where he won't generally have to worry about details of policy or difficult decisions.

    Sunak - has already been rejected by the membership once, won't fancy the same happening again or to win only to have a large group of ERG enemies sniping from the sidelines

    Anyone else sane - would you really want to inherit this mess? Much better to let someone else carry the can and take over after the inevitable GE walloping.

    What happens if nobody wants the job?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,695

    Rob Ford 💙💛
    @robfordmancs
    So the idea of Bring Back Boris has only a few small flaws: He isn't popular. He never was. He can't govern. He can't unify. Scandal & chaos follows him wherever he goes. And enough Con MPs know all of this to leave him unable to govern from day 1.

    He is popular. Is he popular enough with the right people? I would say 50:50. Perhaps 60:40 not.

    But it's by no means a slam dunk. This is the hollowed out post-Brexit Conservative Party (MPs and members) that you are talking about. Not quite loons every one but not a million miles off.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,321

    Has Boris even said he is standing?

    If JRM has that twitter graphic it's set up. He woudn't have done if he hadn't talked to Boris.
    Nobody has actually said they are standing. They're backing each other "if they stand"
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    Noa Hoffman
    @hoffman_noa
    Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson

    This is a good story to plant if you want to scare people off backing Boris.
    Ah another bot declaring that Boris is the Messiah appears on here

    How coincidental
    Coming from someone who many on here accused of being a "bot" or "troll" or somesuch I am disappointed that you seem to be handing out the same treatment to another poster.

    Engage with what they say or don't respond to them would be my advice.
    Fair enough but there seem to be a number of new posters declaring undying support for Boris. Which is suspicious.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Esther Webber
    @estwebber
    ·
    8m
    NEW: Independent panel on MPs' conduct recommends suspending Labour MP Christian Matheson for “serious sexual misconduct”

    Christ. Another miscreant in parliament.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,695
    edited October 21

    Driver said:

    One thing bothering me is, what's the positive case for Sunak?

    The positive case for Boris is easy to state (even if misleading or outdated): he's a proven election winner, and the Tories' majority is his mandate.

    The positive case for Sunak is that he represents the Cameron/Clegg style of politics and will make people who miss that feel less embarrassed to support the Tories.

    The question is how viable that approach is given the political realignment since Cameron was PM.
    Yes. That is my point also. Post-Brexit most of those for want of a better word Cameroonian Conservatives (MPs and members) effed off, ahem, myself included (and plenty of others on this site).

    It is a different constituency now and one not wholly unreceptive to Boris and his lying, selfish, solipsistic, inept, bullying MO.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286

    Noa Hoffman
    @hoffman_noa
    Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson

    https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1583395277326913538
    In case anyone is wondering: the Privileges Committee inquiry into Johnson will continue unless and until a motion tabled by the government rescinding the original motion is carried by the House. I think it’s highly unlikely such a motion would carry...
    I don’t know any details but in the absence of such a motion I would expect the Committee to hear oral evidence throughout November and perhaps longer. It might report in January? It is a breach of the code to put undue pressure on such an inquiry.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    DougSeal said:

    @CWhittaker_MP
    For clarity my name appeared on
    @GuidoFawkes
    last night as a supporter of the
    @BorisJohnson
    campaign. At NO POINT have I contacted Guido. As DCW I have to maintain the integrity, authority and impartiality of the office. Correction from Guido expected and appreciated


    https://mobile.twitter.com/CWhittaker_MP/status/1583392419554693120

    As I was suggesting @TheWhiteRabbit

    Guido relies far too much on tittle tattle and third hand rumours for his figures to be trustworthy on THIS occasion (I emphasise).

    Don't get me wrong, I think Boris 'might' make 100 but I don't think it's anything like certain that he will.
  • GustavoFringsGustavoFrings Posts: 53
    edited October 21
    Sunak’s team aren’t too worried this morning about a Boris Johnson comeback. One MP tells me he’s still in the Caribbean.

    They think he will cap out at 70 or 80 supporters on Monday max.

    “Why would he come back to this? He needs to earn some money.”

    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1583399704909737984
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,673
    Heathener said:

    ((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.

    Yep I think this is a real situation. The party would split and they would be hammered in the election.

    The whole issue of him coming up before the Commons Privileges Committee will focus minds.

    I'm expecting tory MPs to come to their senses, pull back from the brink, and put Rishi Sunak way out in front.
    Part of me hopes the ERG subjects the party to an almighty split with a subsequent election of them all losing their seats. Glorious
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,695
    Heathener said:

    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    Noa Hoffman
    @hoffman_noa
    Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson

    This is a good story to plant if you want to scare people off backing Boris.
    Ah another bot declaring that Boris is the Messiah appears on here

    How coincidental
    Coming from someone who many on here accused of being a "bot" or "troll" or somesuch I am disappointed that you seem to be handing out the same treatment to another poster.

    Engage with what they say or don't respond to them would be my advice.
    Fair enough but there seem to be a number of new posters declaring undying support for Boris. Which is suspicious.
    Why is it suspicious - them's the times. We might get Boris back. If they are dyed in the wool (apols @dyedwoolie) Boris lovers then so what? They will have their say and make good or bad points to that end. In my view it is interesting to get as many diverse views as possible.

    It is a very unattractive and not uncommon feature of PB (for example wrt Ukraine) when there is a "pile on" against a poster with them being called a troll or similar, instead of people engaging with or ignoring their posts.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Does anyone think a sex scandal could derail Boris ?
    Perhaps it could finish off another MPs career too.
    This second coming, it might get messy.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,225

    Driver said:

    One thing bothering me is, what's the positive case for Sunak?...

    He is not a buffoon with a proven history of lying and is not under investigation by the Common's authorities?
    That is a negative case against Boris, not a positive case for Sunak.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    DougSeal said:

    @CWhittaker_MP
    For clarity my name appeared on
    @GuidoFawkes
    last night as a supporter of the
    @BorisJohnson
    campaign. At NO POINT have I contacted Guido. As DCW I have to maintain the integrity, authority and impartiality of the office. Correction from Guido expected and appreciated


    https://mobile.twitter.com/CWhittaker_MP/status/1583392419554693120

    Nothing if not forthright in expressing himself.
    Craig Whittaker has just come out of the lobby and said" I am fucking furious and I don’t give a fuck anymore”.'
    https://twitter.com/isabelhardman/status/1582800202318368768
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,148
    Chester by election would be interesting.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,321
    edited October 21
    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    @CWhittaker_MP
    For clarity my name appeared on
    @GuidoFawkes
    last night as a supporter of the
    @BorisJohnson
    campaign. At NO POINT have I contacted Guido. As DCW I have to maintain the integrity, authority and impartiality of the office. Correction from Guido expected and appreciated


    https://mobile.twitter.com/CWhittaker_MP/status/1583392419554693120

    As I was suggesting @TheWhiteRabbit

    Guido relies far too much on tittle tattle and third hand rumours for his figures to be trustworthy on THIS occasion (I emphasise).

    Don't get me wrong, I think Boris 'might' make 100 but I don't think it's anything like certain that he will.
    What makes you think Whittaker isn't backing Boris?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    darkage said:

    Heathener said:

    ((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.

    Yep I think this is a real situation. The party would split and they would be hammered in the election.

    The whole issue of him coming up before the Commons Privileges Committee will focus minds.

    I'm expecting tory MPs to come to their senses, pull back from the brink, and put Rishi Sunak way out in front.
    I cashed out of my Boris bets this morning with a bit of a profit. He is either going to have enough MPs or not, so will either become the overwhelming favourite or crash out completely. It is all just too chaotic for my liking.
    Indeed he is.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,520

    Chester by election would be interesting.

    Not really. Safe Labour hold
This discussion has been closed.