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The Tory leadership will be decided in the nomination race – politicalbetting.com
The Tory leadership will be decided in the nomination race – politicalbetting.com
The pressure is on CON MPs not to let the next leader to be decided in a membership ballot which is good for Sunak. They’ll try to soak up enough nominations that prevents others getting to the 100 target. If it goes to a ballot then Johnson will have a better chance of winning.
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Imo its over for the Tory party as is. The only question is how they split - Boris wins and there is a centrist split away under Rishi/Hunt (even though BJ is a centrist economically himself). Rishi/Penny wins and a Farage, Johnson, Spartan vehicle emerges.
The latter is slightly less likely but still imo the most likely outcome
Unlikely, probably extremely unlikely. But the way the party is behaving I would rule out nothing right now. I don't see them unifying around one candidate. Indeed, I could see factional breakaways. The Right for example might decide to force an election, break off and team up with Farage. The ERG could become the official opposition.
40 days and 40 nights in the wilderness.
The greatest comeback since Lazarus.
But she's also very foolish on this latest iteration of PM musical chairs. If yesterday she had backed Sunak and made a dream team of her as Foreign Secretary with probably Hunt remaining Chancellor they would have waltzed this election.
Back Boris and she will be tainted with him forever.
OO/Small mortgage = Boris
Big Mortgage = Hunt, I mean Rishi.
That will broadly correlate with blue (large) / red (Small) mortgages.
I don't agree with you. It's by no means guaranteed that Boris will get to 100.
The Membership is only 80k odd people. They voted for Truss and put this into motion. Tory MPs would do very well not listening to the membership and listen to the general public.
I am unconvinced. Johnson will be PM by Friday. Utterly depressing.
There are well over twice as many over 65s in the world today than there were in 1968.
Given the way that Covid strikes based on age, it would have been far less deadly in 1968 than now.
@DPJHodges
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4m
Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.
Sunak 44, Johnson 23, Mordaunt 16
This rate of conversion would scale up to Johnson getting 99 nominations.
Of course, everyone's doing this.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1583342687998324737
He only cares about himself.
Sunak 35
Johnson 19
Mordaunt 11
https://conservativehome.com/2022/10/21/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-sunak-in-front-johnson-a-close-second-with-mordaunt-a-distant-third/
I'm not sure I totally trust Guido's tally but not because he has Johnson in front. More because he goes by tittle tattle and hearsay whereas actual declarations are a very different entity.
JRM (and the wider ERG) are a pox on the party.
@hoffman_noa
Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson
The Tory Party has become fundamentally ungovernable and unfit for office. Completely divided and the idea all the problems will magically vanish if only [speaker's preferred candidate] gets in is absurd.
Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1583392955796029440
GE 2022, SKS next PM both available at 100/1 0r longer
The whole issue of him coming up before the Commons Privileges Committee will focus minds.
I'm expecting tory MPs to come to their senses, pull back from the brink, and put Rishi Sunak way out in front.
What it does mean is that Boris's backers have come out early.
cause a frown, get out of town!
The positive case for Boris is easy to state (even if misleading or outdated): he's a proven election winner, and the Tories' majority is his mandate.
But that would require Sunak or Mordaunt to win and then govern from the centre, which I don’t think will happen.
Any other split would implode at the first contact with the ballot box.
It was notable the talk of 'treason' when Boris was ousted. He literally believes they owe him fealty, not that he served at behest of the party.
And he's not even off the bloody plane yet.
Labour would also split then with Corbynites forming a new Left party
(And 1/3rd of Guido's declarations for Boris are anonymous.)
How coincidental
I think I currently despise them and their mania more than Corbyn. At least Corbyn is honest(-ish) to his own stated values...
Only Badenoch and Francois and Patel of Essex MPs are really ERG and hard right
For clarity my name appeared on
@GuidoFawkes
last night as a supporter of the
@BorisJohnson
campaign. At NO POINT have I contacted Guido. As DCW I have to maintain the integrity, authority and impartiality of the office. Correction from Guido expected and appreciated
https://mobile.twitter.com/CWhittaker_MP/status/1583392419554693120
For clarity, I don't think that Boris has got 150 backers or whatever nonsense was spouted earlier. Merely that he has at least the 52 backers that Guido thinks he has.
@robfordmancs
So the idea of Bring Back Boris has only a few small flaws: He isn't popular. He never was. He can't govern. He can't unify. Scandal & chaos follows him wherever he goes. And enough Con MPs know all of this to leave him unable to govern from day 1.
The question is how viable that approach is given the political realignment since Cameron was PM.
Engage with what they say or don't respond to them would be my advice.
He's the safest way of leaving the Conservatives with sufficient MPs after the election to rebuild their brand.
Johnson 'could' pull something off but he's far more likely to cause utter devastation ... to his party, to politics generally, and to the country.
Johnson might think twice - if it looks like he loses either now or at an immediate GE, he may prefer to wait and return in triumph as LOTO where he won't generally have to worry about details of policy or difficult decisions.
Sunak - has already been rejected by the membership once, won't fancy the same happening again or to win only to have a large group of ERG enemies sniping from the sidelines
Anyone else sane - would you really want to inherit this mess? Much better to let someone else carry the can and take over after the inevitable GE walloping.
What happens if nobody wants the job?
But it's by no means a slam dunk. This is the hollowed out post-Brexit Conservative Party (MPs and members) that you are talking about. Not quite loons every one but not a million miles off.
@estwebber
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NEW: Independent panel on MPs' conduct recommends suspending Labour MP Christian Matheson for “serious sexual misconduct”
Christ. Another miscreant in parliament.
It is a different constituency now and one not wholly unreceptive to Boris and his lying, selfish, solipsistic, inept, bullying MO.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63338261
"Many on social media rejoiced at the prospect, referring to him by the Ukrainianised name "Johnsonyuk", as he is affectionately known in the country. "
He is known as "Johnson ... yuk" here as well.
In case anyone is wondering: the Privileges Committee inquiry into Johnson will continue unless and until a motion tabled by the government rescinding the original motion is carried by the House. I think it’s highly unlikely such a motion would carry...
I don’t know any details but in the absence of such a motion I would expect the Committee to hear oral evidence throughout November and perhaps longer. It might report in January? It is a breach of the code to put undue pressure on such an inquiry.
Guido relies far too much on tittle tattle and third hand rumours for his figures to be trustworthy on THIS occasion (I emphasise).
Don't get me wrong, I think Boris 'might' make 100 but I don't think it's anything like certain that he will.
They think he will cap out at 70 or 80 supporters on Monday max.
“Why would he come back to this? He needs to earn some money.”
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1583399704909737984
It is a very unattractive and not uncommon feature of PB (for example wrt Ukraine) when there is a "pile on" against a poster with them being called a troll or similar, instead of people engaging with or ignoring their posts.
Perhaps it could finish off another MPs career too.
This second coming, it might get messy.
Craig Whittaker has just come out of the lobby and said" I am fucking furious and I don’t give a fuck anymore”.'
https://twitter.com/isabelhardman/status/1582800202318368768