A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
I can't actually believe the IEA, which did so much to incubate the ideas in the mini-budget, encourage the PM/CX to adopt them, and cheerlead for them afterwards, is genuinely now going with the line that "real libertarianism was never really tried".
They aren't exactly going to shut up shop though, are they? They have to come up with an explanatory narrative and this is their only option.
Two things are simultaneously true:
- A small state agenda hasn't been tried properly. Truss was incompetent and tried to combine tax cuts with energy subsidies.
- A small state agenda isn't electorally popular at the moment. Most people don't think the state is too big or that tax is too high.
I'm not ideologically opposed to a small state, but people who push it do need to explain what public spending they would get of. And the consequences.
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth Hearing Laura Pidcock, once viewed as a successor to Jeremy Corbyn as leader, has quit the Labour Party. It's not clear why.
“It’s not clear why”
Because it’s about to win an election?
Maybe, she and Corbyn and a whole raft of Momentum nutters could set up a "Real Labour Party" to confuse voters into reelecting Boris Johnson's Conservatives in GE2024.
62 Rishi 58 Boris according to Guido (the latter figure somewhat suspect)
If we do end up with Rishi winning amongst MPs but Boris going all Trumpesque and insisting on a members' ballot, which he would win, then the Conservative Party, and the country, are heading into a chasm.
The list of declared Boris supporters contain many of the suspects who have wrecked their party and this country. Ideological nutters.
How much more of this must we take?
All PB Lab Centrists seem to not want a Boris comeback.
He is still the Tories only chance of an Electoral recovery.
Most Tory centrists don’t want him back either. Because he’s already discredited - what does it say about our politics (and MPs) when they suddenly want back a man who now faces a parliamentary investigation in the next few months?
Markets don’t seem to be warming to the news either
So Ben Wallace is leaning towards backing Johnson: anyone still think Wallace is the calm, rational one?
“Leaning towards Boris” can equally be translated as “not Rishi”. It is said Sunak wasn’t keen on providing arms to Ukraine on cost grounds and because he thought there was no point.
No doubt he’s be ok with Mordaunt too but she seems nowhere.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
62 Rishi 58 Boris according to Guido (the latter figure somewhat suspect)
If we do end up with Rishi winning amongst MPs but Boris going all Trumpesque and insisting on a members' ballot, which he would win, then the Conservative Party, and the country, are heading into a chasm.
The list of declared Boris supporters contain many of the suspects who have wrecked their party and this country. Ideological nutters.
How much more of this must we take?
All PB Lab Centrists seem to not want a Boris comeback.
He is still the Tories only chance of an Electoral recovery.
What gives you that idea - I would love Bozo to return, the final destruction of the Tory party would have his name attached to it
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
Lab GAIN from Con in Broadland Con GAIN from LibDem in Fareham LibDem GAIN from Con in Guildford Con hold in Monmouthshire Lab hold in St Helens
Good Week/Bad eek Index
Lab +124 LDm +31 Grn -19 Con -131
Adjusted Seat Value
Lab +2.1 LDm +0.5 Grn -0.3 Con -2.2
Decent score for Cons in Fareham, but wiped out and more by negatives elsewhere, especially Broadlands. Positive scores for Labour everywhere, but nominally so except Broadland and St Helens Would have been a really decent week for the LibDems except for Portchester. Greens lost a seat, but ward history means it's heavily discounted, so scores are meh.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
Can't see him a) being good at governing the country in the current economic climate and b) steering clear of trouble.
I agree though that there is a chunk of the population who love him and therefore he will be the difference between the Tories being wiped out and just having a very bad election night.
Very interesting thread by the founder of Bellingcat.
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1583380015550726144 To build on this, my personal belief is most counter-disinformation work fails to address the fundamental issues that lead to the creation of disinformation, and generally misunderstands the source of disinformation in the first place....
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
62 Rishi 58 Boris according to Guido (the latter figure somewhat suspect)
If we do end up with Rishi winning amongst MPs but Boris going all Trumpesque and insisting on a members' ballot, which he would win, then the Conservative Party, and the country, are heading into a chasm.
The list of declared Boris supporters contain many of the suspects who have wrecked their party and this country. Ideological nutters.
How much more of this must we take?
All PB Lab Centrists seem to not want a Boris comeback.
He is still the Tories only chance of an Electoral recovery.
He really isn't BJO. Sunak and Mordaunt have the credibility to take the toxicity out of the Tories. Johnson accentuates them as an utter joke. I accept that as a Johnsonian Conservative you don't want a New Labour redux, but are you sure this man delivers what he promises?
He might beat Putin in Ukraine and seal a great Churchillian victory, but that can't be a positive way forward for our nation.
So Ben Wallace is leaning towards backing Johnson: anyone still think Wallace is the calm, rational one?
I think @TOPPING got it right when he said Wallace would be another IDS as PM
No offence to myself but he is a classic dim ex-soldier. Does not have the imagination that is required to be PM. That said, "classic dim ex-soldier" and dull but competent does put him above 84% of current Cons MPs in terms of PM-ability but nothing to inspire and ultimately he would need some imagination that he doesn't have and that would be his undoing.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
After a losing run at the casino, they’re pawning the wedding ring and putting the proceeds all on 23 red?
That’s really going to end well.
Every big gamble has a downside. Too few are thinking through how that would look.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
I think they could in desperation consolidate around Rishi. They sure as hell are not going to around Boris.
- At least Boris has a mandate and we won't need a GE - economic damage is worse then a few parties - Truss has been subject to unfair abuse.
I think the first two points are valid, not sure about the last one but clearly some people have that view.
My old uni friends are aghast and incredulous at the prospect of a Boris return, much in the way that they have been aghast at everything that has happened in British politics since 2016. There isn't much in the way of useful insights from them.
Boris gets given a pass by quite a few I know on the basis that he demonstrably hates Putin and is very pro Ukraine. Especially but only so from this in marriages with Eastern Europeans. Quite hard to predict how all this plays out really.
If we'd stayed in the EU, there'd be more marriages to Eastern Europeans and more votes for Boris!
Very interesting thread by the founder of Bellingcat.
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1583380015550726144 To build on this, my personal belief is most counter-disinformation work fails to address the fundamental issues that lead to the creation of disinformation, and generally misunderstands the source of disinformation in the first place....
"And these people don't become part of these communities to create and spread disinformation, they do it because they believe (often correctly) that they're being deceived, so seek to correct the record."
"The problem is their own biases, fuelled by traumatic moral injury, means any conclusion that supports the perceived position of those responsible for that injury is unacceptable, so alternative, increasing absurd, answers must be correct."
I remember an academic that Obama hired to look at this and I remember her talking about how all the talk of Russia simply providing loads of propaganda backing Trump was nonsense.
That in reality it had all been going on for a long time, they had joined or setup loads and loads of social media groups across the political and ethnic divides and people were voluntary getting involved. The reason, because they already had a cause / a side / a campaign they wanted to get on board with, be it black Christian groups (who thought that combination of racism and anti-Christian sentiment was strong in the US) to predominantly white middle class yoga mums (a community that turned into huge anti-vaxxers).
The trick being played was to reinforce the biases and keep stretching the narrative. Most of the time the Russian state actors were just engaging in these discussions, amplifying certain things being brought up, and then from time to time slipping in a story (sometimes true, sometimes false, sometimes somewhere inbetween) with deliberate ploy to outrage.
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
I do think there has been a bit of TV media ramping of Johnson because he is box office. The BBC were very excitable at the news yesterday. They can edit all the "Boris is a dick" interviews out and just feature HYUFD.
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
I've made lots of mistakes in my life but none on the scale of Boris and I have never lied about them.
- At least Boris has a mandate and we won't need a GE - economic damage is worse then a few parties - Truss has been subject to unfair abuse.
I think the first two points are valid, not sure about the last one but clearly some people have that view.
My old uni friends are aghast and incredulous at the prospect of a Boris return, much in the way that they have been aghast at everything that has happened in British politics since 2016. There isn't much in the way of useful insights from them.
Boris gets given a pass by quite a few I know on the basis that he demonstrably hates Putin and is very pro Ukraine. Especially but only so from this in marriages with Eastern Europeans. Quite hard to predict how all this plays out really.
If we'd stayed in the EU, there'd be more marriages to Eastern Europeans and more votes for Boris!
In my experience, Brexit was the cause of a lot of a UK-EU marriages.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
I don't think wiping the slate clean works because even if eveybody mysteriously decided to forgive him for making them miss friends' funerals while he was at a party or whatever, there's a whole stream of preexisting scandal that hasn't yet broken.
So at best you'd have a couple of days of good headlines, then we'd be back with the daily sleaze.
Very interesting thread by the founder of Bellingcat.
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1583380015550726144 To build on this, my personal belief is most counter-disinformation work fails to address the fundamental issues that lead to the creation of disinformation, and generally misunderstands the source of disinformation in the first place....
"And these people don't become part of these communities to create and spread disinformation, they do it because they believe (often correctly) that they're being deceived, so seek to correct the record."
"The problem is their own biases, fuelled by traumatic moral injury, means any conclusion that supports the perceived position of those responsible for that injury is unacceptable, so alternative, increasing absurd, answers must be correct."
I remember an academic that Obama hired to look at this and I remember her talking about how all the talk of Russia simply providing loads of propaganda backing Trump was nonsense.
That in reality it had all been going on for a long time, they had joined or setup loads and loads of social media groups across the political and ethnic divides and people were voluntary getting involved. The reason, because they already had a cause / a side / a campaign they wanted to get on board with.
The trick being played was to reinforce the biases and keep stretching the narrative. Most of the time the Russian state actors were just engaging in these discussions, amplifying certain things being brought up, and then from time to time slipping in a story (sometimes true, sometimes false, sometimes somewhere inbetween) with deliberate ploy to outrage.
Indeed - but his real point is that Russia is irrelevant if you're trying to actually address the problem. The only way to build trust is not to lie.
If Boris 'wins' on Monday and is reappointed Tuesday, someone asked about the date of the next GE.
The problem is, like in 2019, we're almost at a point at which a 2022 GE can be ruled out. Since the 25 WORKING day rule (up from 17) was introduced about 15 years ago, it's very hard to get a GE done quickly.
If Boris came back on Tuesday 25th and called an election that day, the earliest the election could be held would (probably) be Thursday 1st December (I think 30th November is a bank holiday in Scotland?)
That's not as late into December as the 2019 election but its still in December. If instead the members do get involved and a winner (Boris) isn't announced till Friday 28th and appointed on Monday 31st October and dissolves Parliament then, we're looking at Wednesday 7th December (so Thursday 8th December).
If the winner DOES decide to go for a GE (I seriously, seriously doubt ANY winner will) we're already into a December GE no matter what.
I suspect it won't happen and therefore the earliest they might consider is next May 2023.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
62 Rishi 58 Boris according to Guido (the latter figure somewhat suspect)
If we do end up with Rishi winning amongst MPs but Boris going all Trumpesque and insisting on a members' ballot, which he would win, then the Conservative Party, and the country, are heading into a chasm.
The list of declared Boris supporters contain many of the suspects who have wrecked their party and this country. Ideological nutters.
How much more of this must we take?
All PB Lab Centrists seem to not want a Boris comeback.
He is still the Tories only chance of an Electoral recovery.
Most Tory centrists don’t want him back either. Because he’s already discredited - what does it say about our politics (and MPs) when they suddenly want back a man who now faces a parliamentary investigation in the next few months?
Markets don’t seem to be warming to the news either
I'm a Lab Centrist and I don't want Boris back, for exactly these reasons.
British Politics has really become a laughing stock internationally.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
After a losing run at the casino, they’re pawning the wedding ring and putting the proceeds all on 23 red?
That’s really going to end well.
Every big gamble has a downside. Too few are thinking through how that would look.
"Need to gamble" is an absolutely contemptible way to think about appointing a new PM, in every respect.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
I don't think wiping the slate clean works because even if eveybody mysteriously decided to forgive him for making them miss friends' funerals while he was at a party or whatever, there's a whole stream of preexisting scandal that hasn't yet broken.
So at best you'd have a couple of days of good headlines, then we'd be back with the daily sleaze.
How is the "slate wiped clean" when the offender has never admitted the offence ?
Guido's spreadsheet shows unnamed MPs who are Party Officers (so can't publicly declare their support) supporting candidates as follows:
Boris - 17 Penny - 2 Rishi - 1
Two questions:
1) How many MPs are Party Officers in total?
2) If Boris has the support of the vast majority of Party Officers, why did they make the rule that 100 nominations are needed which may prevent Boris standing?
Boris obvs gets the numbers and then loses to Rishi in the members' vote.
That 43% will grow because it was a sensible 43% and enough of the 57% will have been frightened enough by the Truss experiment to want someone vaguely sane.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
I don't think wiping the slate clean works because even if eveybody mysteriously decided to forgive him for making them miss friends' funerals while he was at a party or whatever, there's a whole stream of preexisting scandal that hasn't yet broken.
So at best you'd have a couple of days of good headlines, then we'd be back with the daily sleaze.
How is the "slate wiped clean" when the offender has never admitted the offence ?
its not nice legalities or protocol that count its the great british public's perception
FWIW I dont want Boris back whilst the situation in Ukraine is still highly dangerous for the UK - He will only put more fuel on the fire there with his Churchill like impersonation. Rishi (will def lose the next election for the tories) will at least be more sceptical of the need to supply more weapons and the whole situation should then be much easier to de-escalate
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
I don't think wiping the slate clean works because even if eveybody mysteriously decided to forgive him for making them miss friends' funerals while he was at a party or whatever, there's a whole stream of preexisting scandal that hasn't yet broken.
So at best you'd have a couple of days of good headlines, then we'd be back with the daily sleaze.
How is the "slate wiped clean" when the offender has never admitted the offence ?
its not nice legalities or protocol that count its the great british public's perception
Guido's spreadsheet shows unnamed MPs who are Party Officers (so can't publicly declare their support) supporting candidates as follows:
Boris - 17 Penny - 2 Rishi - 1
Two questions:
1) How many MPs are Party Officers in total?
2) If Boris has the support of the vast majority of Party Officers, why did they make the rule that 100 nominations are needed which may prevent Boris standing?
Boris obvs gets the numbers and then loses to Rishi in the members' vote.
That 43% will grow because it was a sensible 43% and enough of the 57% will have been frightened enough by the Truss experiment to want someone vaguely sane.
Thing is, the Truss brigade like higher interest rates. Not sure they were particularly frightened by the market reaction to trussonomics, at all.
Boris obvs gets the numbers and then loses to Rishi in the members' vote.
That 43% will grow because it was a sensible 43% and enough of the 57% will have been frightened enough by the Truss experiment to want someone vaguely sane.
If true, then Boris will probably go down to 1.4 or even lower at some point and therefore be a brilliant lay
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
Boris obvs gets the numbers and then loses to Rishi in the members' vote.
That 43% will grow because it was a sensible 43% and enough of the 57% will have been frightened enough by the Truss experiment to want someone vaguely sane.
Thing is, the Truss brigade like higher interest rates. Not sure they were particularly frightened by it, at all.
That is true and I'm not predicting a wipeout for Boris. It will be close but the membership has tried its experiment once and enough of them will be wary of doing it again. Even if only for the lolz (as we all would on here).
If Boris 'wins' on Monday and is reappointed Tuesday, someone asked about the date of the next GE.
The problem is, like in 2019, we're almost at a point at which a 2022 GE can be ruled out. Since the 25 WORKING day rule (up from 17) was introduced about 15 years ago, it's very hard to get a GE done quickly.
If Boris came back on Tuesday 25th and called an election that day, the earliest the election could be held would (probably) be Thursday 1st December (I think 30th November is a bank holiday in Scotland?)
That's not as late into December as the 2019 election but its still in December. If instead the members do get involved and a winner (Boris) isn't announced till Friday 28th and appointed on Monday 31st October and dissolves Parliament then, we're looking at Wednesday 7th December (so Thursday 8th December).
If the winner DOES decide to go for a GE (I seriously, seriously doubt ANY winner will) we're already into a December GE no matter what.
I suspect it won't happen and therefore the earliest they might consider is next May 2023.
The scenario is not that Boris goes for an election, but that those resigning the whip force a GE. Would they want to do so before a budget was on the statute book, seeing as a motivation would be to end the instability. I guess not.
So, assuming Boris let Hunt go ahead and have a budget on Nov 2, plus time to get all passed, a successful VONC may not be possible until mid-November. And would Starmer then wish to time it a bit better?
So, perhaps a Jan/Feb election in such a scenario?
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
I've made lots of mistakes in my life but none on the scale of Boris and I have never lied about them.
But if you had, you might try to get away with saying the same?
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
If Boris keeps Hunt as Chancellor, does that soothe the Sunak wing?
Boris obvs gets the numbers and then loses to Rishi in the members' vote.
That 43% will grow because it was a sensible 43% and enough of the 57% will have been frightened enough by the Truss experiment to want someone vaguely sane.
Thing is, the Truss brigade like higher interest rates. Not sure they were particularly frightened by the market reaction to trussonomics, at all.
The Truss brigade also included circa all of the Boris loyalists, and the whole problem with Truss began when she diverged from Boris, so there is more than enough excuse material out there to stroke the id and vote against Sunak.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
No, I don't. I expect Sunak to look to include all wings of the party.
It's only the ultras who'd have a problem with him (i still don't know why given the guy campaigned for Leave) and he will have to give jobs to the fruitcakes and it's a greater courtesy than Boris or Truss would grant the other way round.
Boris obvs gets the numbers and then loses to Rishi in the members' vote.
That 43% will grow because it was a sensible 43% and enough of the 57% will have been frightened enough by the Truss experiment to want someone vaguely sane.
Thing is, the Truss brigade like higher interest rates. Not sure they were particularly frightened by the market reaction to trussonomics, at all.
Yes, that's partly true, and what helped do for them.
The consensus amongst my circle, including people who normally vote Tory or don't discuss politics in public, is the Conservatives are out of road. They should call an election and let Labour have a go at government.
This nonsense is not playing well with normal people.
Guido's spreadsheet shows unnamed MPs who are Party Officers (so can't publicly declare their support) supporting candidates as follows:
Boris - 17 Penny - 2 Rishi - 1
Two questions:
1) How many MPs are Party Officers in total?
2) If Boris has the support of the vast majority of Party Officers, why did they make the rule that 100 nominations are needed which may prevent Boris standing?
He’s stopped doing that now. Guido was making up the entries and putting one or two against the others just to try and make it look more credible.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
No, I don't. I expect Sunak to look to include all wings of the party.
It's only the ultras who'd have a problem with him (i still don't know why given the guy campaigned for Leave) and he will have to give jobs to the fruitcakes and it's a greater courtesy than Boris or Truss would grant the other way round.
Breaking the NI manifesto pledge is a big part of it.
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
Of course lots of people want him back. He tells low information voters what they desperately want to hear, and persuades just enough of them that it's true and he's definitely the man to make it happen. No austerity. Levelling up. Banishing the doomsters and gloomsters. Britain is great. Rule Britannia!
They don't want the reality that 12 years of the Tories have brought us. Well, they're going to get it anyway.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
The trouble is that a lot of core Johnson supporting MPs appear to be careerist idiots who wouldn't be employed by anyone else. Do you want Rees-Mogg in a great office of state?
Guido's spreadsheet shows unnamed MPs who are Party Officers (so can't publicly declare their support) supporting candidates as follows:
Boris - 17 Penny - 2 Rishi - 1
Two questions:
1) How many MPs are Party Officers in total?
2) If Boris has the support of the vast majority of Party Officers, why did they make the rule that 100 nominations are needed which may prevent Boris standing?
He’s stopped doing that now. Guido was making up the entries and putting one or two against the others just to try and make it look more credible.
They're still there (in green)
There are 16 whips, 5 party chairs (inc Brady). Nici has publicly declared support, even as a whip.
I'm getting more and more annoyed at the very idea that any Tory MPs could possibly think that the lying shit, drummed out of office a matter of weeks ago, is the best person to be Prime Minister.
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
Of course lots of people want him back. He tells low information voters what they desperately want to hear, and persuades just enough of them that it's true and he's definitely the man to make it happen. No austerity. Levelling up. Banishing the doomsters and gloomsters. Britain is great. Rule Britannia!
They don't want the reality that 12 years of the Tories have brought us. Well, they're going to get it anyway.
I do wish people would stop sneering at people who voted the wrong way as "low information", it's a really ugly look.
Wouldn’t be surprised if it hit £5m+ by settlement.
A real betting slugfest.
I'm really wondering about this. Sunak's declared support is almost (perhaps completely) from his own support, and there are I think only 3 Sunak backers previously to have gone BoJo.
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
I've made lots of mistakes in my life but none on the scale of Boris and I have never lied about them.
But if you had, you might try to get away with saying the same?
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
If Boris keeps Hunt as Chancellor, does that soothe the Sunak wing?
If Hunt had anything about him, he would resign the moment Bozo is declared PM.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
The trouble is that a lot of core Johnson supporting MPs appear to be careerist idiots who wouldn't be employed by anyone else. Do you want Rees-Mogg in a great office of state?
You could make a horror show of a Cabinet of those who have declared for Boris already....
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
No, I don't. I expect Sunak to look to include all wings of the party.
It's only the ultras who'd have a problem with him (i still don't know why given the guy campaigned for Leave) and he will have to give jobs to the fruitcakes and it's a greater courtesy than Boris or Truss would grant the other way round.
My objection to Sunak has nothing to do with Leave or Remain.
Its that he put up National Insurance, while wanting to cut Income Tax by 4p.
I fear a repeat of the situation so passionately described in Charles Walker's speech about Truss supporters, now applying to Boris. The talentless Tory MPs who backed Truss in the hope and expectation of preferment may largely transfer their support to Boris and get him across the 100 supporter threshold.
This country deserves so much better than this self-serving shower of nobodies.
Labour MP Chris Matheson has quit over allegations of "serious sexual misconduct" which is said to have taken place on a "sexually-motivated" trip to Gibraltar.
The Independent Expert Panel - an independent body on MPs' conduct - recommended the MP for the City of Chester be suspended for four weeks.
The Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards upheld two allegations of sexual misconduct against Mr Matheson by a former member of his staff.
He allegedly invited her on a private trip abroad and "the invitation was sexually motivated, unwanted, and had placed the complainant under pressure and intimidated her", according to the report.
In December 2019 he invited her on the "private trip which he asked her to keep secret, even from her close family" which the inquiry concluded was "sexually motivated".
In the end the trip did not go ahead.
During a work event outside Parliament, he also "linked arms with her; made personal comments about her appearance while looking at her suggestively; made her hold his hand as they left and insisted on accompanying her to her bus stop - and once there invited her back to his flat, kissed her twice on the forehead and attempted to kiss her on the mouth.
Up to the bold bit, I was left thinking (putting aside a married man trying to instigate an affair) seems a bit harsh and some of it very open to interpretation i.e. what is "looking at somebody suggestively"...then it gets weird.
An MP resigns for that (rightly maybe, time will tell) and we are about to make Johnson PM again. You honestly couldn't make it up.
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
Of course lots of people want him back. He tells low information voters what they desperately want to hear, and persuades just enough of them that it's true and he's definitely the man to make it happen. No austerity. Levelling up. Banishing the doomsters and gloomsters. Britain is great. Rule Britannia!
They don't want the reality that 12 years of the Tories have brought us. Well, they're going to get it anyway.
I do wish people would stop sneering at people who voted the wrong way as "low information", it's a really ugly look.
Most people are low information voters. I'm not sneering. Low information voters cut across all classes, incomes, educational levels, intelligence. Most people pay no attention at all. That's why Johnson has been so effective. He shamelessly spins webs of disinformation that anyone who pays the slightest attention can see if just a load of tosh. But to those who don't pay much attention he sounds very plausible. Trumpian. He gets just enough people to vote to make themselves poorer, and not even realise it. Cheer it, even.
The consensus amongst my circle, including people who normally vote Tory or don't discuss politics in public, is the Conservatives are out of road. They should call an election and let Labour have a go at government.
This nonsense is not playing well with normal people.
I think one way or another we're heading for an election and a Labour government before too much longer.
I fear a repeat of the situation so passionately described in Charles Walker's speech about Truss supporters, now applying to Boris. The talentless Tory MPs who backed Truss in the hope and expectation of preferment may largely transfer their support to Boris and get him across the 100 supporter threshold.
This country deserves so much better than this self-serving shower of nobodies.
It does like like the exact same thing he was bemoaning.
If Boris 'wins' on Monday and is reappointed Tuesday, someone asked about the date of the next GE.
The problem is, like in 2019, we're almost at a point at which a 2022 GE can be ruled out. Since the 25 WORKING day rule (up from 17) was introduced about 15 years ago, it's very hard to get a GE done quickly.
If Boris came back on Tuesday 25th and called an election that day, the earliest the election could be held would (probably) be Thursday 1st December (I think 30th November is a bank holiday in Scotland?)
That's not as late into December as the 2019 election but its still in December. If instead the members do get involved and a winner (Boris) isn't announced till Friday 28th and appointed on Monday 31st October and dissolves Parliament then, we're looking at Wednesday 7th December (so Thursday 8th December).
If the winner DOES decide to go for a GE (I seriously, seriously doubt ANY winner will) we're already into a December GE no matter what.
I suspect it won't happen and therefore the earliest they might consider is next May 2023.
The scenario is not that Boris goes for an election, but that those resigning the whip force a GE. Would they want to do so before a budget was on the statute book, seeing as a motivation would be to end the instability. I guess not.
So, assuming Boris let Hunt go ahead and have a budget on Nov 2, plus time to get all passed, a successful VONC may not be possible until mid-November. And would Starmer then wish to time it a bit better?
So, perhaps a Jan/Feb election in such a scenario?
Sorry, been out getting jabbed and stuff. Has Hunt indicated yet whether he would serve under Boris if offered the job of Chancellor?
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
If Boris keeps Hunt as Chancellor, does that soothe the Sunak wing?
If Hunt had anything about him, he would resign the moment Bozo is declared PM.
(Big "if" there.)
He was willing to work for Truss for the sake of his country…
The consensus amongst my circle, including people who normally vote Tory or don't discuss politics in public, is the Conservatives are out of road. They should call an election and let Labour have a go at government.
This nonsense is not playing well with normal people.
I think one way or another we're heading for an election and a Labour government before too much longer.
I’m not saying it’s likely. But have you considered the possibility that Boris keeps the show on the road until next spring, gets a bounce from helping beat Putin and then bags another majority with the new boundaries helping him across the line?
Comments
40 more and he is back IMO
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
He was never going to back anyone but Boris if there was a prospect of him playing.
Check out both times a Socialist has led Labour
Markets don’t seem to be warming to the news either
No doubt he’s be ok with Mordaunt too but she seems nowhere.
Sold Rishi for £28 at 8.0
Bought £57 of Starmer at 1.9
Bought £5 of Coffey at 70
£13 on Braverman and Cleverly
I think my book is in positive equity now...
Quite the turnaround - thank God Boris drifted to 30 and I realised latterly he might run
Basically a straight up £200 bet on Boris vs Rishi now.
He also said that the German-made IRIS-T air defense system showed itself “wonderfully” while used in combat
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1583431334038765573
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
Lab GAIN from Con in Broadland
Con GAIN from LibDem in Fareham
LibDem GAIN from Con in Guildford
Con hold in Monmouthshire
Lab hold in St Helens
Good Week/Bad eek Index
Lab +124
LDm +31
Grn -19
Con -131
Adjusted Seat Value
Lab +2.1
LDm +0.5
Grn -0.3
Con -2.2
Decent score for Cons in Fareham, but wiped out and more by negatives elsewhere, especially Broadlands.
Positive scores for Labour everywhere, but nominally so except Broadland and St Helens
Would have been a really decent week for the LibDems except for Portchester.
Greens lost a seat, but ward history means it's heavily discounted, so scores are meh.
I agree though that there is a chunk of the population who love him and therefore he will be the difference between the Tories being wiped out and just having a very bad election night.
Treasury ten year gilts now over 4.1, sterling down below $1.11.
Boris is already costing us.
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1583380015550726144
To build on this, my personal belief is most counter-disinformation work fails to address the fundamental issues that lead to the creation of disinformation, and generally misunderstands the source of disinformation in the first place....
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
He might beat Putin in Ukraine and seal a great Churchillian victory, but that can't be a positive
way forward for our nation.
That’s really going to end well.
Every big gamble has a downside. Too few are thinking through how that would look.
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
"The problem is their own biases, fuelled by traumatic moral injury, means any conclusion that supports the perceived position of those responsible for that injury is unacceptable, so alternative, increasing absurd, answers must be correct."
I remember an academic that Obama hired to look at this and I remember her talking about how all the talk of Russia simply providing loads of propaganda backing Trump was nonsense.
That in reality it had all been going on for a long time, they had joined or setup loads and loads of social media groups across the political and ethnic divides and people were voluntary getting involved. The reason, because they already had a cause / a side / a campaign they wanted to get on board with, be it black Christian groups (who thought that combination of racism and anti-Christian sentiment was strong in the US) to predominantly white middle class yoga mums (a community that turned into huge anti-vaxxers).
The trick being played was to reinforce the biases and keep stretching the narrative. Most of the time the Russian state actors were just engaging in these discussions, amplifying certain things being brought up, and then from time to time slipping in a story (sometimes true, sometimes false, sometimes somewhere inbetween) with deliberate ploy to outrage.
Can whoever wins, command a majority?
Remember: Charles is not his mother.
Interesting times.
That'll be the main fiscal change
So at best you'd have a couple of days of good headlines, then we'd be back with the daily sleaze.
The only way to build trust is not to lie.
If Boris 'wins' on Monday and is reappointed Tuesday, someone asked about the date of the next GE.
The problem is, like in 2019, we're almost at a point at which a 2022 GE can be ruled out.
Since the 25 WORKING day rule (up from 17) was introduced about 15 years ago, it's very hard to get a GE done quickly.
If Boris came back on Tuesday 25th and called an election that day, the earliest the election could be held would (probably) be Thursday 1st December (I think 30th November is a bank holiday in Scotland?)
That's not as late into December as the 2019 election but its still in December.
If instead the members do get involved and a winner (Boris) isn't announced till Friday 28th and appointed on Monday 31st October and dissolves Parliament then, we're looking at Wednesday 7th December (so Thursday 8th December).
If the winner DOES decide to go for a GE (I seriously, seriously doubt ANY winner will) we're already into a December GE no matter what.
I suspect it won't happen and therefore the earliest they might consider is next May 2023.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
British Politics has really become a laughing stock internationally.
Tory leadership election getting very feisty.
Boris - 17
Penny - 2
Rishi - 1
Two questions:
1) How many MPs are Party Officers in total?
2) If Boris has the support of the vast majority of Party Officers, why did they make the rule that 100 nominations are needed which may prevent Boris standing?
Penny in a bit, to 11s
Rishi a touch over evens.
Boris obvs gets the numbers and then loses to Rishi in the members' vote.
That 43% will grow because it was a sensible 43% and enough of the 57% will have been frightened enough by the Truss experiment to want someone vaguely sane.
FWIW I dont want Boris back whilst the situation in Ukraine is still highly dangerous for the UK - He will only put more fuel on the fire there with his Churchill like impersonation. Rishi (will def lose the next election for the tories) will at least be more sceptical of the need to supply more weapons and the whole situation should then be much easier to de-escalate
Isn't that Boris's motto ?
(no sniggering at the back)
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
Sunak evens
Penny 11s
Very volatile.
One would hope it's a challenge he can address and not just when he's in a panic.
So, assuming Boris let Hunt go ahead and have a budget on Nov 2, plus time to get all passed, a successful VONC may not be possible until mid-November. And would Starmer then wish to time it a bit better?
So, perhaps a Jan/Feb election in such a scenario?
Rishi 1.92
Penny 10
It's only the ultras who'd have a problem with him (i still don't know why given the guy campaigned for Leave) and he will have to give jobs to the fruitcakes and it's a greater courtesy than Boris or Truss would grant the other way round.
This nonsense is not playing well with normal people.
Surely more likely to be in the 10-20 range.
Boing boing
They don't want the reality that 12 years of the Tories have brought us. Well, they're going to get it anyway.
There are 16 whips, 5 party chairs (inc Brady). Nici has publicly declared support, even as a whip.
Wouldn’t be surprised if it hit £5m+ by settlement.
A real betting slugfest. The type of market that betfair was designed for.
He. Is. A. Disgrace.
(Three deep breaths. And relax...)
Surely these are not surprising developments.
(Big "if" there.)
Its that he put up National Insurance, while wanting to cut Income Tax by 4p.
Anyone who does that isn't fit to be PM.
This country deserves so much better than this self-serving shower of nobodies.