A theory: much of Boris’s divisiveness came from his association with Brexit. Truss was the first post-Brexit PM and her brief stint as PM has provided a reset that has forced the Conservative Party to get serious again. This will give a second Boris term a different character. We will see Boris the post-Brexit PM rather than Boris the Brexit PM.
With all due respect that's the shittest theory I have ever read on PB.
A Conservative MP in a relatively marginal seat told me his Conservative association members have already started sending very strongly worded emails demanding he back Johnson or they’ll no longer support him. I imagine this will be a huge driver over the weekend.
A Conservative MP in a relatively marginal seat told me his Conservative association members have already started sending very strongly worded emails demanding he back Johnson or they’ll no longer support him. I imagine this will be a huge driver over the weekend.
A theory: much of Boris’s divisiveness came from his association with Brexit. Truss was the first post-Brexit PM and her brief stint as PM has provided a reset that has forced the Conservative Party to get serious again. This will give a second Boris term a different character. We will see Boris the post-Brexit PM rather than Boris the Brexit PM.
Feasible. There’s an alternate universe where he didn’t lead the Leave campaign, went on to be Cameron’s successor, and all these same people are devoted to him and overlook the rest (much like the Boris loyalists today).
Exactly. There are quite a few people who performatively hate him because of Brexit who you just know would otherwise overlook his flaws and say, “It’s just Boris being Boris.”
His removal was caused by the revolt of Sunak and Zahawi. Both of them were ardent leavers.
The febrile political context was because of Brexit.
Don't be ludicrous. The febrile political context was caused by:
1) Paterson 2) Partygate 3) Pincher.
None of those were anything to do with Brexit. One was corruption, one was criminality and the third was dishonesty. Any of them showed Johnson was unfit for high office, but take them all together and he hadn't a prayer of survival. It's only because he has no integrity and no sense that he thought he did.
I know you're obsessed with the EU but do try to look past that at this thing called 'real life.'
2), while criminal, the bigger sin was hypocrisy. That Tory MPs think he could swan back in, all forgiven, suggests they need the cull that a GE would give (on current polling). Yes a few die hard doughnuts are ringing in R5 saying bring back Boris. But the vast majority of the country sees him for what he is. I’m reluctant to fat shame, especially as I am carrying too much right now, but in his case it really does seem to show his character - lazy.
Viz., fat-shame, let me oblige you; Boris is a disingenuous fat fornicator!
A Conservative MP in a relatively marginal seat told me his Conservative association members have already started sending very strongly worded emails demanding he back Johnson or they’ll no longer support him. I imagine this will be a huge driver over the weekend.
If there are any sensible or decent Tory MPs left they just have to make this fucking nightmare end. Vote for a VONC, bring the whole thing down. It's over. The Tory party has finally lost its mind completely. Please, in the name of God, just make it stop.
What did for BoJo last time was the collapse in plausible ministers prepared to serve under him.
I trust that some enterprising hack is going to ask them how they would feel about being a minister in a Johnson government again.
It beggars belief, given the reasons for his departure, Tory MPs would seriously want him back.
Look at the other two (likely) choices:
- Sunak - smug, rich ex-banker and hedge fund guy married to an Indian billionaire heiress who will come in talking about the need for cuts and for people to take the necessary pain. Plus he's 5'6" - Mordaunt - questionable relationship with the truth, seen as too pro-woke by many MPs, not particularly impressive in the hustings.
Not exactly spoilt for choice .
Sunak showed with the furlough he provided he is not a slash the state chancellor, he will reassure the markets and do the necessary but he is no libertarian ideologue like Truss and Kwarteng were
He's a banker, chances are Hunt would stay on as CoE and then the Tory Red Wall vote would desert plus some of their Blue Wall support. Sunak guarantees the Tories lose, Johnson...well...
The Tories will lose whoever leads them now, Sunak might just save some Tory MPs seats, that is all
Interesting that on Question Time Boris's Sister Rachel favoured Labour and SKS.
She's a madcap Remainer like you and me. Best ignore.
A Conservative MP in a relatively marginal seat told me his Conservative association members have already started sending very strongly worded emails demanding he back Johnson or they’ll no longer support him. I imagine this will be a huge driver over the weekend.
If there are any sensible or decent Tory MPs left they just have to make this fucking nightmare end. Vote for a VONC, bring the whole thing down. It's over. The Tory party has finally lost its mind completely. Please, in the name of God, just make it stop.
What did for BoJo last time was the collapse in plausible ministers prepared to serve under him.
I trust that some enterprising hack is going to ask them how they would feel about being a minister in a Johnson government again.
A Conservative MP in a relatively marginal seat told me his Conservative association members have already started sending very strongly worded emails demanding he back Johnson or they’ll no longer support him. I imagine this will be a huge driver over the weekend.
Johnson now into 2/1..Mordaunt drifting to 4/1.....it really looks like Boris is going to do it
Hmmm. The early movers for Boris were always going to be out at the starting pistol. I'm reckoning the Boris names start slowing right down when he gets to about 60.
I've bailed out for a £200 haircut. Lost in total about £260 with bets over the last few days.
Still up £1,300 on Truss but I'm not risking a four figure sum on Boris anymore.
I think enough Tory MPs are dumb enough to do it and the members would seal the deal.
I simply cannot believe that the 1922 have left the door open for the members to have the final say again.
I think if 100 MPs + 80,000 members reinstate Johnson then the party disintegrates. The Cabinet will again be stuffed with 3rd rate, incompetent yesmen because I can't see anyone of any stature or integrity agreeing to serve in it. It would be worse than the first time around because he's going to strut back into No 10 knowing he can get away with anything.
So what happens if the committee finds Johnson misled parliament. Will we have another leadership election ?
Why the hell not, it's not like there's anything important happening that needs dealing with.
I usually chuckle at lefties predicting the demise of the oldest political party, but the members seem hell bent of testing the very limit of public tolerance.
A Conservative MP in a relatively marginal seat told me his Conservative association members have already started sending very strongly worded emails demanding he back Johnson or they’ll no longer support him. I imagine this will be a huge driver over the weekend.
If there are any sensible or decent Tory MPs left they just have to make this fucking nightmare end. Vote for a VONC, bring the whole thing down. It's over. The Tory party has finally lost its mind completely. Please, in the name of God, just make it stop.
What did for BoJo last time was the collapse in plausible ministers prepared to serve under him.
I trust that some enterprising hack is going to ask them how they would feel about being a minister in a Johnson government again.
boris new cabinet
chancellor JRM home secretary: steve baker foreign secretary kemi badenoch
A Conservative MP in a relatively marginal seat told me his Conservative association members have already started sending very strongly worded emails demanding he back Johnson or they’ll no longer support him. I imagine this will be a huge driver over the weekend.
If there are any sensible or decent Tory MPs left they just have to make this fucking nightmare end. Vote for a VONC, bring the whole thing down. It's over. The Tory party has finally lost its mind completely. Please, in the name of God, just make it stop.
What did for BoJo last time was the collapse in plausible ministers prepared to serve under him.
I trust that some enterprising hack is going to ask them how they would feel about being a minister in a Johnson government again.
boris new cabinet
chancellor JRM home secretary: steve baker foreign secretary kemi badenoch
The 1922 are idiots. They've overcompensated for their ludicrously long process. They should have reduced the nominations needed. Or abandoned the nominations bit all together. They could vote every two hours to whittle it down. A unity candidate would have more chance of emerging then. I repeat. If Boris gets 100 he's the PM again a week tomorrow.
A Conservative MP in a relatively marginal seat told me his Conservative association members have already started sending very strongly worded emails demanding he back Johnson or they’ll no longer support him. I imagine this will be a huge driver over the weekend.
If there are any sensible or decent Tory MPs left they just have to make this fucking nightmare end. Vote for a VONC, bring the whole thing down. It's over. The Tory party has finally lost its mind completely. Please, in the name of God, just make it stop.
What did for BoJo last time was the collapse in plausible ministers prepared to serve under him.
I trust that some enterprising hack is going to ask them how they would feel about being a minister in a Johnson government again.
boris new cabinet
chancellor JRM home secretary: steve baker foreign secretary kemi badenoch
I've bailed out for a £200 haircut. Lost in total about £260 with bets over the last few days.
Still up £1,300 on Truss but I'm not risking a four figure sum on Boris anymore.
I think enough Tory MPs are dumb enough to do it and the members would seal the deal.
I simply cannot believe that the 1922 have left the door open for the members to have the final say again.
One more time: They. Had. No. Choice. It. Is. in. The. Party. Constitution.
The 100 threshold was the '22 doing the best they could, especially coupled with the indicative head-to-head vote by MPs.
Unfortunately, a sufficient percentage of the membership are bonkers and they have selected a sufficient percentage of bonkers MPs. And so it goes.
Though given how much of the incoming Winter of Discontent is down to BoJo's decisions, maybe it is just that he is back to face the music. I wonder what he'll do.
So what happens if the committee finds Johnson misled parliament. Will we have another leadership election ?
I reckon we will have some detailed leaking that he is screwed! His early backers like Nadine will scream and scream and scream until they are sick, but it will be enough to sink his campaign for this very reason.
A Conservative MP in a relatively marginal seat told me his Conservative association members have already started sending very strongly worded emails demanding he back Johnson or they’ll no longer support him. I imagine this will be a huge driver over the weekend.
If there are any sensible or decent Tory MPs left they just have to make this fucking nightmare end. Vote for a VONC, bring the whole thing down. It's over. The Tory party has finally lost its mind completely. Please, in the name of God, just make it stop.
What did for BoJo last time was the collapse in plausible ministers prepared to serve under him.
I trust that some enterprising hack is going to ask them how they would feel about being a minister in a Johnson government again.
boris new cabinet
chancellor JRM home secretary: steve baker foreign secretary kemi badenoch
Guido’s spreadsheet claims that Boris enjoys the support of 8 “whips”.
How many of the bastards are there?
Guido is probably bullshitting and ramping him. That's what he does.
Nevertheless I think Boris has mo.
The names will be easy enough to verify, whatever Guido might want to push (the number of anonymous ones is up for question). So he's easily got a third of the way to a nomination, and it's just a matter of if the eager beavers are all there is for him, and it will slow to a drip.
It might. But if a poll comes out that says he will perform best with the country, and it might, the MP support will flow anew.
Boris is the best chance for an early election. The defections are likely to be substantial according to the Ch4 political commentator
I've bailed out for a £200 haircut. Lost in total about £260 with bets over the last few days.
Still up £1,300 on Truss but I'm not risking a four figure sum on Boris anymore.
I think enough Tory MPs are dumb enough to do it and the members would seal the deal.
I simply cannot believe that the 1922 have left the door open for the members to have the final say again.
I think if 100 MPs + 80,000 members reinstate Johnson then the party disintegrates. The Cabinet will again be stuffed with 3rd rate, incompetent yesmen because I can't see anyone of any stature or integrity agreeing to serve in it. It would be worse than the first time around because he's going to strut back into No 10 knowing he can get away with anything.
It's the members who knock on doors.
It's the members who knock on doors and who have to answer "Why should I vote for a liar?"
So what happens if the committee finds Johnson misled parliament. Will we have another leadership election ?
I reckon we will have some detailed leaking that he is screwed! His early backers like Nadine will scream and scream and scream until they are sick, but it will be enough to sink his campaign for this very reason.
I hope you’re right . As much as I think Johnson would be good news for Labour I couldn’t stomach another 2 years of him as PM.
So what happens if the committee finds Johnson misled parliament. Will we have another leadership election ?
I reckon we will have some detailed leaking that he is screwed! His early backers like Nadine will scream and scream and scream until they are sick, but it will be enough to sink his campaign for this very reason.
The journos better get working on those dormant scandal stories, pronto
Four out of 10 went on to serve a full term in their own right. Perhaps worth nothing that 3 of the 4 might well have served a 2nd full term IF they'd run again - TR, Silent Cal and LBJ.
Know there's likely skepticism re: Lyndon Johnson being capable of winning in 1968 (well remember the night he came on TV to announce he was NOT running) but pretty clear he'd have outperformed Hubert Humphrey, who came VERY close to beating Richard Nixon.
Part of the problem with Boris is that he is seen as this election winning machine. Problem is that the major elections he has won have been against Livingstone and Corbyn. Boris won because people like my mother voted Tory in Wokingham so as not to risk Corbyn. She won't be doing the same next time. Starmer is not the same risk. If Boris wins the Tory party will rip itself apart and they will then be wiped out at the General Election. If they are very lucky they would get away with something like 1997.
I thought the Tory members were bad but the MPs are completely barking.
A Conservative MP in a relatively marginal seat told me his Conservative association members have already started sending very strongly worded emails demanding he back Johnson or they’ll no longer support him. I imagine this will be a huge driver over the weekend.
If there are any sensible or decent Tory MPs left they just have to make this fucking nightmare end. Vote for a VONC, bring the whole thing down. It's over. The Tory party has finally lost its mind completely. Please, in the name of God, just make it stop.
What did for BoJo last time was the collapse in plausible ministers prepared to serve under him.
I trust that some enterprising hack is going to ask them how they would feel about being a minister in a Johnson government again.
boris new cabinet
chancellor JRM home secretary: steve baker foreign secretary kemi badenoch
Though KB was one of those who resigned because Boris's position was untenable. I'm sure that an ambitious politician could justify effectively unresigning, but it might not be convincing.
The plan clearly is to get Boris Johnson "momentum" (not in the Labour sense) before either Sunak or Mordaunt formally declare.
Reports Johnson is closing on half the number of nominations required may suggest he has the early momentum but the journey from 40 to 100 may not be straightforward.
Could we have three runners - Sunak, Mordaunt and Johnson? Maybe but there will be huge pressure on those who finish second and third next Monday to drop out voluntarily so the victor can go to the King on Monday evening or Tuesday morning.
The other thought - Wilson was Prime Minister twice as were Baldwin and MacDonald. Gladstone was Prime Minister four times but I presume in all the above examples they were removed by a General Election and re-elected following another election. Johnson would be the first to be removed by his own party and re-elected by his own party all within the one parliament.
It seems to me extremely unlikely that Boris Johnson would participate in an agreement that whoever is second after the MPs' ballot pulls out. Indeed I take it that the MPs who support Johnson think they can rely on his having the support of the members.
It seems to me extremely unlikely that Boris Johnson would participate in an agreement that whoever is second after the MPs' ballot pulls out. Indeed I take it that the MPs who support Johnson think they can rely on his having the support of the members.
If you formally say there will be a member vote of course someone will stick it out if they are bloody minded. No chance of game playing and all agreeing to pull out.
Comments
Freddie Sayers
@freddiesayers
·
1h
Please tell me which stage of this is wrong:
1. Boris is running
2. He will get to the final two
3. If it goes to the membership, he wins
Of course, you can nominate someone and then vote against them.
I trust that some enterprising hack is going to ask them how they would feel about being a minister in a Johnson government again.
2! 4 at least my good fellow. The assistant butler was wearing the iron down to a nub ironing them as they came in…
I usually chuckle at lefties predicting the demise of the oldest political party, but the members seem hell bent of testing the very limit of public tolerance.
chancellor JRM
home secretary: steve baker
foreign secretary kemi badenoch
A unity candidate would have more chance of emerging then.
I repeat. If Boris gets 100 he's the PM again a week tomorrow.
Christopher Snowdon 🇺🇦
@cjsnowdon
·
1h
It’s going to be Boris isn’t it? The banter timeline cannot be stopped.
Unfortunately, a sufficient percentage of the membership are bonkers and they have selected a sufficient percentage of bonkers MPs. And so it goes.
Though given how much of the incoming Winter of Discontent is down to BoJo's decisions, maybe it is just that he is back to face the music. I wonder what he'll do.
Like the Thane of Cawdor - Nothing in her office / Became her like the leaving or it"
1. John Tyler = 3 years and 11 months
2. Andrew Johnson = 3 years, 10 months, and 17 days
3. Harry Truman = 3 years, 9 months, and 8 days
4. Theodore Roosevelt =3 years, 5 months, and 18 days
5. Chester Arthur =3 years, 5 months, and 13 days
6. Millard Fillmore = 2 years, 7 months, and 23 days
7. Gerald Ford = 2 years, 5 months, and 11 days
9. Calvin Coolidge = 1 year, 7 months, and 2 days
10. Lyndon Johnson = 1 year, 1 month, and 29 days
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States_by_time_in_office
Four out of 10 went on to serve a full term in their own right. Perhaps worth nothing that 3 of the 4 might well have served a 2nd full term IF they'd run again - TR, Silent Cal and LBJ.
Know there's likely skepticism re: Lyndon Johnson being capable of winning in 1968 (well remember the night he came on TV to announce he was NOT running) but pretty clear he'd have outperformed Hubert Humphrey, who came VERY close to beating Richard Nixon.
I thought the Tory members were bad but the MPs are completely barking.
Get Charles Walker in maybe!
The factions of the party hate each other and no faction consists of 325 MPs. Its time for Opposition.