Good evening, everyone. All this is very confusing for someone who's given up on following politics. I gather that if we had a GE right now, the SNP would probably be official Oppositon.
Last time I posted it was to celebrate Mr Johnson's resignation. Has the CPP forgotten that they'd belatedly decided he wasn't fit for office?
Are they taking bets on how many PMs will have come & gone by the time His Majesty is crowned?
It beggars belief, given the reasons for his departure, Tory MPs would seriously want him back.
Look at the other two (likely) choices:
- Sunak - smug, rich ex-banker and hedge fund guy married to an Indian billionaire heiress who will come in talking about the need for cuts and for people to take the necessary pain. Plus he's 5'6" - Mordaunt - questionable relationship with the truth, seen as too pro-woke by many MPs, not particularly impressive in the hustings.
Not exactly spoilt for choice .
Sunak showed with the furlough he provided he is not a slash the state chancellor, he will reassure the markets and do the necessary but he is no libertarian ideologue like Truss and Kwarteng were
It beggars belief, given the reasons for his departure, Tory MPs would seriously want him back.
It does indeed, and if so they are even madder than I already thought they were, and deserve to be cast into oblivion.
Not nearly all of them desire the return of the UK's second most unpopular politician.
If he does get back in then we'll certainly find out whether all the noises off about resignations from the party and outright defections to Labour are anymore than that.
You know, as someone who is always a big fan of a new PM calling a GE to get their own mandate, it strikes me this evening that Truss would still be PM tonight IF she'd called a GE straight away.
6th September - Truss appointed, calls GE. 8th September - Queen dies. Two weeks added to campaign making GE move from 25 to 35 working days. GE to be held on Thursday 3rd November.
Truss might not have won it, but she'd have been PM longer than if she didn't call one at all.
@CatNeilan Some mutterings about whether Boris Johnson can hit the 100 mark but both those in the pro and anti-Boris camps seem fairly convinced he'll sail through.
One supporter says they're "looking to have 50 public tonight".
One critic estimates he gets 💥140 💥 on first ballot
Just yesterday I was pondering who would be worse than Truss, on the basis that given the opportunity Tory members would pick such a person, but I hadn't considered the return of Boris. So that's that question answered.
It beggars belief, given the reasons for his departure, Tory MPs would seriously want him back.
Look at the other two (likely) choices:
- Sunak - smug, rich ex-banker and hedge fund guy married to an Indian billionaire heiress who will come in talking about the need for cuts and for people to take the necessary pain. Plus he's 5'6" - Mordaunt - questionable relationship with the truth, seen as too pro-woke by many MPs, not particularly impressive in the hustings.
Not exactly spoilt for choice .
Sunak showed with the furlough he provided he is not a slash the state chancellor, he will reassure the markets and do the necessary but he is no libertarian ideologue like Truss and Kwarteng were
He's a banker, chances are Hunt would stay on as CoE and then the Tory Red Wall vote would desert plus some of their Blue Wall support. Sunak guarantees the Tories lose, Johnson...well...
Weirdly I think the best candidate the Tories could pick to avoid an immediate GE isn’t the same person as who would perform best at a GE.
I think the former is Mordaunt. Boris winning would cause defections, acrimony and resignations that I suspect would make a GE necessary immediately. Conversely I think he actually is the one most likely to win the most seats in a GE (but he would still lose). For the long term future of the party they must not pick him, though.
Rishi I suspect will be undermined by Johnson supporters from the word go.
It beggars belief, given the reasons for his departure, Tory MPs would seriously want him back.
It does indeed, and if so they are even madder than I already thought they were, and deserve to be cast into oblivion.
Not nearly all of them desire the return of the UK's second most unpopular politician.
If he does get back in then we'll certainly find out whether all the noises off about resignations from the party and outright defections to Labour are anymore than that.
I would hope that enough would resign in disgust and bring the government down, at the cost of their careers. But they are Tory MPs, so I wouldn't bet on it.
Maybe be the classic "give me a serious job" move.
I doubt she would get to 100 if BJ runs but she may split the vote. However, I think she's smart enough to know (a) she's young enough to stand next time (b) she probably wouldn't get to 100 now and (c) this may be a good one to stand aside for.
Good evening, everyone. All this is very confusing for someone who's given up on following politics. I gather that if we had a GE right now, the SNP would probably be official Oppositon.
Last time I posted it was to celebrate Mr Johnson's resignation. Has the CPP forgotten that they'd belatedly decided he wasn't fit for office?
Are they taking bets on how many PMs will have come & gone by the time His Majesty is crowned?
Hello Anne. I'd say it'd be a coin toss between the SNP and the Lib Dems. A sufficient tsunami of tactical votes could deliver the latter quite a lot of seats in the South East.
The Tory party is desperate and mad as a box of frogs. It's hard to see where a unity candidate comes from and, therefore, easy to see how it ends up fracturing into mutually loathing Sunak and Johnson camps in a state of open warfare with one another. Either man could win.
Just yesterday I was pondering who would be worse than Truss, on the basis that given the opportunity Tory members would pick such a person, but I hadn't considered the return of Boris. So that's that question answered.
I agree, Johnson is worse than Truss. At least she took the role seriously (if catastrophically bad at it) and would not tolerate sexual misconduct.
Just yesterday I was pondering who would be worse than Truss, on the basis that given the opportunity Tory members would pick such a person, but I hadn't considered the return of Boris. So that's that question answered.
I agree, Johnson is worse than Truss. At least she took the role seriously (if catastrophically bad at it) and would not tolerate sexual misconduct.
Yet she didn’t take his mirror down from the ceiling above the bed
Fascinating to see what happens to the polls after the next PM is installed.
I expect we are at close to the bottom now. Perhaps the lowest polling will be those taken yesterday, today and the next couple of days. Whichever leader wins will get a bounce because (assuming Braverman isn’t one of them) all are not quite as bad as Truss.
I’d expect Rishi to get the deficit back to about 10 points before levelling off. Penny might have a higher peak as she’s relatively unknown if her first couple of appearances impress. Boris would be fascinating. He would I expect start on higher polling than he finished last time. People have short memories.
Boris might be good for the Lib Dems. I could imagine him gaining a bit of ground back in the red wall at Labour’s expense while shipping votes further in the blue wall, especially if mortgage rates continue upwards.
Just yesterday I was pondering who would be worse than Truss, on the basis that given the opportunity Tory members would pick such a person, but I hadn't considered the return of Boris. So that's that question answered.
I agree, Johnson is worse than Truss. At least she took the role seriously (if catastrophically bad at it) and would not tolerate sexual misconduct.
The plan clearly is to get Boris Johnson "momentum" (not in the Labour sense) before either Sunak or Mordaunt formally declare.
Reports Johnson is closing on half the number of nominations required may suggest he has the early momentum but the journey from 40 to 100 may not be straightforward.
Could we have three runners - Sunak, Mordaunt and Johnson? Maybe but there will be huge pressure on those who finish second and third next Monday to drop out voluntarily so the victor can go to the King on Monday evening or Tuesday morning.
The other thought - Wilson was Prime Minister twice as were Baldwin and MacDonald. Gladstone was Prime Minister four times but I presume in all the above examples they were removed by a General Election and re-elected following another election. Johnson would be the first to be removed by his own party and re-elected by his own party all within the one parliament.
You know, I was thinking earlier about how picking a Prime Minister from a GE is so much old hat.
The last PM to come in as a result of winning a GE was Cameron. The last PM to come in as PM, having beat his opponent who'd also won a GE was Blair (beating the 1992 GE winner, Major). The last PM to come in as PM, having beat his opponent who'd also won a GE AND been serving as a result of winning a GE themselves was Wilson all the way back in 1974 (or even Heath in 1970 if you don't consider Wilson's Feb 74 a proper win).
PMs don't win GE anymore to become a PM. They become PM and THEN win a GE........
@CatNeilan Some mutterings about whether Boris Johnson can hit the 100 mark but both those in the pro and anti-Boris camps seem fairly convinced he'll sail through.
One supporter says they're "looking to have 50 public tonight".
One critic estimates he gets 💥140 💥 on first ballot
@CatNeilan Some mutterings about whether Boris Johnson can hit the 100 mark but both those in the pro and anti-Boris camps seem fairly convinced he'll sail through.
One supporter says they're "looking to have 50 public tonight".
One critic estimates he gets 💥140 💥 on first ballot
Just yesterday I was pondering who would be worse than Truss, on the basis that given the opportunity Tory members would pick such a person, but I hadn't considered the return of Boris. So that's that question answered.
I agree, Johnson is worse than Truss. At least she took the role seriously (if catastrophically bad at it) and would not tolerate sexual misconduct.
Yet she didn’t take his mirror down from the ceiling above the bed
What goes on in the bedroom of Number 10 is not my business!
Bringing back Boris would be an obvious plotline from the writers of this series, but at what point does it stop being believable? Have viewers not tired of repeating the same plotlines of parties, lying and laziness? Or will they welcome the light relief the character brings after Truss almost got the show cancelled?
It does nicely sets up the 'Tory party split' storyline that people have been predicting for years, so maybe it will happen.
Is Boris value at 4.7? Surely even the Tories aren’t that stupid?
I think Mourdaunt might be a lay here. Looking at Guido's spreadsheet, she is struggling to get momentum and. unless she gets a lot more quickly, this may become a BJ vs RS contest very quickly
Number of backers in first confidence vote (210) - Number of ministerial resignations (50 odd by the end?) - Backbenchers against him by his resignation (?) - Those who supported him but would not have him back + Borregretters (not many surely)
Just yesterday I was pondering who would be worse than Truss, on the basis that given the opportunity Tory members would pick such a person, but I hadn't considered the return of Boris. So that's that question answered.
I agree, Johnson is worse than Truss. At least she took the role seriously (if catastrophically bad at it) and would not tolerate sexual misconduct.
Yet she didn’t take his mirror down from the ceiling above the bed
What goes on in the bedroom of Number 10 is not my business!
@CatNeilan Some mutterings about whether Boris Johnson can hit the 100 mark but both those in the pro and anti-Boris camps seem fairly convinced he'll sail through.
One supporter says they're "looking to have 50 public tonight".
One critic estimates he gets 💥140 💥 on first ballot
The plan clearly is to get Boris Johnson "momentum" (not in the Labour sense) before either Sunak or Mordaunt formally declare.
Reports Johnson is closing on half the number of nominations required may suggest he has the early momentum but the journey from 40 to 100 may not be straightforward.
Could we have three runners - Sunak, Mordaunt and Johnson? Maybe but there will be huge pressure on those who finish second and third next Monday to drop out voluntarily so the victor can go to the King on Monday evening or Tuesday morning.
The other thought - Wilson was Prime Minister twice as were Baldwin and MacDonald. Gladstone was Prime Minister four times but I presume in all the above examples they were removed by a General Election and re-elected following another election. Johnson would be the first to be removed by his own party and re-elected by his own party all within the one parliament.
You know, I was thinking earlier about how picking a Prime Minister from a GE is so much old hat.
The last PM to come in as a result of winning a GE was Cameron. The last PM to come in as PM, having beat his opponent who'd also won a GE was Blair (beating the 1992 GE winner, Major). The last PM to come in as PM, having beat his opponent who'd also won a GE AND been serving as a result of winning a GE themselves was Wilson all the way back in 1974 (or even Heath in 1970 if you don't consider Wilson's Feb 74 a proper win).
PMs don't win GE anymore to become a PM. They become PM and THEN win a GE........
It beggars belief, given the reasons for his departure, Tory MPs would seriously want him back.
Look at the other two (likely) choices:
- Sunak - smug, rich ex-banker and hedge fund guy married to an Indian billionaire heiress who will come in talking about the need for cuts and for people to take the necessary pain. Plus he's 5'6" - Mordaunt - questionable relationship with the truth, seen as too pro-woke by many MPs, not particularly impressive in the hustings.
Not exactly spoilt for choice .
Sunak showed with the furlough he provided he is not a slash the state chancellor, he will reassure the markets and do the necessary but he is no libertarian ideologue like Truss and Kwarteng were
He's a banker, chances are Hunt would stay on as CoE and then the Tory Red Wall vote would desert plus some of their Blue Wall support. Sunak guarantees the Tories lose, Johnson...well...
The Tories will lose whoever leads them now, Sunak might just save some Tory MPs seats, that is all
Number of backers in first confidence vote (210) - Number of ministerial resignations (50 odd by the end?) - Backbenchers against him by his resignation (?) - Those who supported him but would not have him back + Borregretters (not many surely)
Does that really still land at 140?
+ Career opportunists (back the winner to get a job for next 2 years)
+ Those who think only Boris would save their seat now
Backbenchers/unknown new 2019 MPs not on the payroll may not have been in the 210 first time around but if they think Boris is going to win might back him hoping to be rewarded with a job for the next two years if they do.
@CatNeilan Some mutterings about whether Boris Johnson can hit the 100 mark but both those in the pro and anti-Boris camps seem fairly convinced he'll sail through.
One supporter says they're "looking to have 50 public tonight".
One critic estimates he gets 💥140 💥 on first ballot
@CatNeilan Some mutterings about whether Boris Johnson can hit the 100 mark but both those in the pro and anti-Boris camps seem fairly convinced he'll sail through.
One supporter says they're "looking to have 50 public tonight".
One critic estimates he gets 💥140 💥 on first ballot
Is Boris value at 4.7? Surely even the Tories aren’t that stupid?
I think he is value. Arguably should be favourite.
Does he want it?Yes. 90%+ Can he get 100 MPs? Yes. He still had 100 supporters when he went and perhaps has more now. 80% Can he win with the membership? Yes. 80%.
Is Boris value at 4.7? Surely even the Tories aren’t that stupid?
I think Mourdaunt might be a lay here. Looking at Guido's spreadsheet, she is struggling to get momentum and. unless she gets a lot more quickly, this may become a BJ vs RS contest very quickly
Rishi supporters are going to make the same mistake as a few months ago. They knew he would lose to Truss and yet they were willing to risk Truss.
Now they are going to back Rishi and watch him lose to Boris this time. They need to be pragmatic.
Do a deal with Penny. Rishi gets to be FS. Penny stands more chance of beating Boris. Particularly if they join forces.
They need to do it for the sake of the Tory party. Boris winning will rip the party apart.
Just yesterday I was pondering who would be worse than Truss, on the basis that given the opportunity Tory members would pick such a person, but I hadn't considered the return of Boris. So that's that question answered.
I agree, Johnson is worse than Truss. At least she took the role seriously (if catastrophically bad at it) and would not tolerate sexual misconduct.
Yet she didn’t take his mirror down from the ceiling above the bed
What goes on in the bedroom of Number 10 is not my business!
You paid for that mirror!
In that case then I am glad the next incumbent also may have found a good use for it - good value for public money!
The ELE fail for the Tories is not stitching up a unity candidate. Scenarios: 1. Boris doesn't get to 100 nominations. Choice of Sunak or Mordaunt. A "super-ERG" parliamentary group sabotage the "remainer elite" from day 1 2. Boris does get to 100 nominations but loses. The Tory party channels the GOP and talks about stitch-ups and coups 3. Boris wins. How many Tory MPs leave?
Great fun.
Day ine of Sunak premiership 20 Spartans, Boris and Farage hold a press conference launching 'The New Boz Spartan Express Party'
That would all but guarantee a sizeable majority for Labour at the GE. However 2 egos like Johnson and Farage could not coexist in that arrangement. They couldn't even unite in a single leave campaign so I don't see it happening.
I could see some of the ultras leaving in those circumstances with the rest of the party happily waving them goodbye.
Number of backers in first confidence vote (210) - Number of ministerial resignations (50 odd by the end?) - Backbenchers against him by his resignation (?) - Those who supported him but would not have him back + Borregretters (not many surely)
Does that really still land at 140?
Outside change, but possible I think. I suspect the number who no longer care even a little about his unsuitability has gone up, given the apocalyptic position they are in. Casino_Royale has their thinking down, poor as it is.
As dixiedean notes, if he gets on the ballot, he wins.
Re: spreadsheets & scorecards, what is likelihood that more than handful of members will SAY they are nominating/voting one way, and actually doing something rather different?
Reckon odds may be greater than recent "Truss or Bust" funfair?
@CatNeilan Some mutterings about whether Boris Johnson can hit the 100 mark but both those in the pro and anti-Boris camps seem fairly convinced he'll sail through.
One supporter says they're "looking to have 50 public tonight".
One critic estimates he gets 💥140 💥 on first ballot
Insanity. I get the members still like him, and there were always some MPs still loyal, but you don't go down like Boris did without damn good reason.
It's beautiful. The members elect a hopeless leader who is unacceptable to the MPs, and she lasts six weeks. Then the members elect a hopeless leader who has already been thrown out by the MPs.
@CatNeilan Some mutterings about whether Boris Johnson can hit the 100 mark but both those in the pro and anti-Boris camps seem fairly convinced he'll sail through.
One supporter says they're "looking to have 50 public tonight".
One critic estimates he gets 💥140 💥 on first ballot
Almost this entire website has a blind spot for his electoral appeal don’t they?
I don’t understand it. I don’t want him as PM but I can see he offers a chance of recovery.
My better half wants an early election and wants Starmer as PM but said to me tonight it has to be Boris. She said that people may not like Boris but at least he was elected, at least he knew how to get stuff done (it all fell apart after he left) and while she wouldn't vote for him would be OK if it is him, but if its not him, we should have an election so it can be Starmer instead.
TOP (BOTTOM?) TEN Prime Ministers by shortness of tenure in cumulative terms (after Wikipedia):
Liz Truss - 45 days (Conservative resigned 2022) George Canning - 119 days (Tory (Canningite), died 1827) Viscount Goderich - 144 days (Tory (Canningite), resigned 1828) Bonar Law - 211 days (Conservative (Unionist), illness 1923) Duke of Devonshire - 225 days (Whig, replaced 1757) Earl of Shelburne - 266 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1783) Earl of Bute - 317 days (Tory, resigned 1763) Alec Douglas-Home - 364 days (Conservative (Unionist), lost election 1964) Lord Grenville - 1 year 42 days (Whig, replaced 1807) Duke of Grafton - 1 year 106 days (Whig (Chathamite), resigned 1770)
Well Truss' place in history is at least assured.
She will forever be the answer to that tricky pub quiz and Pointless question, who was the shortest serving PM in UK history?
I think she beat Clough’s tenure at Leeds Utd by one day.
@CatNeilan Some mutterings about whether Boris Johnson can hit the 100 mark but both those in the pro and anti-Boris camps seem fairly convinced he'll sail through.
One supporter says they're "looking to have 50 public tonight".
One critic estimates he gets 💥140 💥 on first ballot
Almost this entire website has a blind spot for his electoral appeal don’t they?
I don’t understand it. I don’t want him as PM but I can see he offers a chance of recovery.
My better half wants an early election and wants Starmer as PM but said to me tonight it has to be Boris. She said that people may not like Boris but at least he was elected, at least he knew how to get stuff done (it all fell apart after he left) and while she wouldn't vote for him would be OK if it is him, but if its not him, we should have an election so it can be Starmer instead.
Presumably by this line of thinking the expectation is that Boris will sort out the problems with mortgage interest rates etc.
Is Boris value at 4.7? Surely even the Tories aren’t that stupid?
I think Mourdaunt might be a lay here. Looking at Guido's spreadsheet, she is struggling to get momentum and. unless she gets a lot more quickly, this may become a BJ vs RS contest very quickly
Rishi supporters are going to make the same mistake as a few months ago. They knew he would lose to Truss and yet they were willing to risk Truss
Now they are going to back Rishi and watch him lose to Boris this time. They need to be pragmatic.
Do a deal with Penny. Rishi gets to be FS. Penny stands more chance of beating Boris. Particularly if they join forces.
They need to do it for the sake of the Tory party. Boris winning will rip the party apart.
I agree with that about RS supporters not realising he is simply unacceptable to large swathes of the party (and probably public - he's not the right person for the moment).
Mordaunt's issue I suspect is that many just don't trust her given what she has said / done in the past.
Re: spreadsheets & scorecards, what is likelihood that more than handful of members will SAY they are nominating/voting one way, and actually doing something rather different?
Reckon odds may be greater than recent "Truss or Bust" funfair?
On the plus side, I've just pan fried fresh plaice fillets with mushrooms and cream (also poached in white wine) and garnished with fresh parsley, so it's not all bad.
(FYI - three totally fresh plaice fillets from Waitrose were only £5.04, and the cream, parsley and mushrooms probably only another £4, so you can cook amazing quality family meals for less than a tenner if you Google- but for some reason people fear fish. )
Is Boris value at 4.7? Surely even the Tories aren’t that stupid?
I think he is value. Arguably should be favourite.
Does he want it?Yes. 90%+ Can he get 100 MPs? Yes. He still had 100 supporters when he went and perhaps has more now. 80% Can he win with the membership? Yes. 80%.
If he still 3/1? I backed him at 5-1 but tempted to buy more.
Is Boris value at 4.7? Surely even the Tories aren’t that stupid?
I think Mourdaunt might be a lay here. Looking at Guido's spreadsheet, she is struggling to get momentum and. unless she gets a lot more quickly, this may become a BJ vs RS contest very quickly
Rishi supporters are going to make the same mistake as a few months ago. They knew he would lose to Truss and yet they were willing to risk Truss.
Now they are going to back Rishi and watch him lose to Boris this time. They need to be pragmatic.
Do a deal with Penny. Rishi gets to be FS. Penny stands more chance of beating Boris. Particularly if they join forces.
They need to do it for the sake of the Tory party. Boris winning will rip the party apart.
I'm voting for the Tory leadership candidate who will pass a law banning Mike Smithson from going on holiday.
The fact Mike is going on holiday means maximum entertainment is guaranteed
Monday Sunak and Bozo get the nominations Monday MP vote shows Sunak with 200 votes, Bozo 100-140 Tuesday membership polling shows Bozo winning Friday members vote for Bozo
There are more than 100 Tory MPs who, to be blunt, are fucking idiots, and thus susceptible to the idea that they should put Johnson on the ballot paper. He will probably also attract a few midwit MPs who reckon they can get jobs out of it - Johnson will stomp whoever goes up against him in the final ballot so it's not that risky a bet.
The public will be upset that the Conservatives have responded to the multiple serious crises the last PM instigated/worsened by re-electing a deeply unserious man. Johnson is lazy and won't want to actually deal with these crises beyond throwing money at them, so he'll start by sacking Hunt et al which will make things worse. In November, he'll then run into the brick wall of the Standards Committee, which will have multiple televised hours of witnesses talking about how much of a clown Johnson is while the country burns around him.
It will destroy the party and salt the earth behind it. Extinction.
There seems to be a conflict between PB experts (OGH, CasinoRoyale) and the media, or perhaps the media’s reporting of Tory views.
The first dismiss Boris’s chances of making 100. The second think it is inevitable.
Some biiiiig reputations on the line here.
I think this situation is so chaotic that it is difficult to predict anything. None of the usual rules apply. I thought the odds were very good on Boris a couple of hours ago, now hovering over the cash out button. Might make £30. Its my first bet for years.
The public need to do their part and claim in a poll (they don't even have to mean it) that the Tory poll rating will shoot up 10-15 points if they choose anyone but Boris. MPs have to think they can be saved by anyone but him.
Is Boris value at 4.7? Surely even the Tories aren’t that stupid?
I think Mourdaunt might be a lay here. Looking at Guido's spreadsheet, she is struggling to get momentum and. unless she gets a lot more quickly, this may become a BJ vs RS contest very quickly
Rishi supporters are going to make the same mistake as a few months ago. They knew he would lose to Truss and yet they were willing to risk Truss.
Now they are going to back Rishi and watch him lose to Boris this time. They need to be pragmatic.
Do a deal with Penny. Rishi gets to be FS. Penny stands more chance of beating Boris. Particularly if they join forces.
They need to do it for the sake of the Tory party. Boris winning will rip the party apart.
Yes. It’s hard for many people on here to acknowledge but Sunak is not the unity candidate. It’s very hard to see how he could maintain control, too many enemies. He’s the other side of the same coin to Boris. He should have realised this last time around. That he’s even running again shows how big his ego is.
Is Boris value at 4.7? Surely even the Tories aren’t that stupid?
I think Mourdaunt might be a lay here. Looking at Guido's spreadsheet, she is struggling to get momentum and. unless she gets a lot more quickly, this may become a BJ vs RS contest very quickly
Rishi supporters are going to make the same mistake as a few months ago. They knew he would lose to Truss and yet they were willing to risk Truss.
Now they are going to back Rishi and watch him lose to Boris this time. They need to be pragmatic.
Do a deal with Penny. Rishi gets to be FS. Penny stands more chance of beating Boris. Particularly if they join forces.
They need to do it for the sake of the Tory party. Boris winning will rip the party apart.
Yes. It’s hard for many people on here to acknowledge but Sunak is not the unity candidate. It’s very hard to see how he could maintain control, too many enemies. He’s the other side of the same coin to Boris. He should have realised this last time around. That he’s even running again shows how big his ego is.
It's not hard, it's obvious he's not the unity candidate because Boris and his acolytes despise him, and the members would clearly only have him on sufferance.
There isn't a unity candidate, 40 (and counting) backers for Boris even now shows the 150+ anti-Borisers are not enough to get to majority.
@CatNeilan Some mutterings about whether Boris Johnson can hit the 100 mark but both those in the pro and anti-Boris camps seem fairly convinced he'll sail through.
One supporter says they're "looking to have 50 public tonight".
One critic estimates he gets 💥140 💥 on first ballot
Almost this entire website has a blind spot for his electoral appeal don’t they?
I don’t understand it. I don’t want him as PM but I can see he offers a chance of recovery.
I see the grotesque logic to him coming back but if MPs do it I and I’m sure many other right of centre voters will never forgive the Tory Party.
There are some principles bigger than electoral appeal. The assessment Tory MPs made (shared with much of the country I may add) was that Boris Johnson was fundamentally unfit to be PM.
If they bring him back they will effectively be saying “yeah we get that but he’s popular so we don’t care.” No better than the GOP and their Trump lunacy.
I knew Boris was rather keen on trashing our institutions but if the whole Tory Party show themselves as fully complicit in it then there’s no way back for them.
Is Boris value at 4.7? Surely even the Tories aren’t that stupid?
I think Mourdaunt might be a lay here. Looking at Guido's spreadsheet, she is struggling to get momentum and. unless she gets a lot more quickly, this may become a BJ vs RS contest very quickly
Rishi supporters are going to make the same mistake as a few months ago. They knew he would lose to Truss and yet they were willing to risk Truss.
Now they are going to back Rishi and watch him lose to Boris this time. They need to be pragmatic.
Do a deal with Penny. Rishi gets to be FS. Penny stands more chance of beating Boris. Particularly if they join forces.
They need to do it for the sake of the Tory party. Boris winning will rip the party apart.
Yes. It’s hard for many people on here to acknowledge but Sunak is not the unity candidate. It’s very hard to see how he could maintain control, too many enemies. He’s the other side of the same coin to Boris. He should have realised this last time around. That he’s even running again shows how big his ego is.
Sunak salted the earth with his tax rises, he was favourite until then.
Truss's tax cuts went too far, but Sunak's tax rises were never justifiable.
The public need to do their part and claim in a poll (they don't even have to mean it) that the Tory poll rating will shoot up 10-15 points if they choose anyone but Boris. MPs have to think they can be saved by anyone but him.
What is, sadly, more likely is a poll in one of the Sundays showing a Boris led Tory party well into the 30s and Boris close to Starmer on preferred PM.
Is Boris value at 4.7? Surely even the Tories aren’t that stupid?
I think Mourdaunt might be a lay here. Looking at Guido's spreadsheet, she is struggling to get momentum and. unless she gets a lot more quickly, this may become a BJ vs RS contest very quickly
Rishi supporters are going to make the same mistake as a few months ago. They knew he would lose to Truss and yet they were willing to risk Truss.
Now they are going to back Rishi and watch him lose to Boris this time. They need to be pragmatic.
Do a deal with Penny. Rishi gets to be FS. Penny stands more chance of beating Boris. Particularly if they join forces.
They need to do it for the sake of the Tory party. Boris winning will rip the party apart.
Yes. It’s hard for many people on here to acknowledge but Sunak is not the unity candidate. It’s very hard to see how he could maintain control, too many enemies. He’s the other side of the same coin to Boris. He should have realised this last time around. That he’s even running again shows how big his ego is.
It's not hard, it's obvious he's not the unity candidate because Boris and his acolytes despise him, and the members would clearly only have him on sufferance.
There isn't a unity candidate, 40 (and counting) backers for Boris even now shows the 150+ anti-Borisers are not enough to get to majority.
Mordaunt could be a unity candidate but the anti-woke brigade have it in for her.
It's a hopeless situation - even if the Tories could circle round a compromise unity candidate, they are in such disagreement about fundamental policies re the economy that they would only be a unity candidate up to the first major decision. They won't agree on a recovery plan.
Current situation not ideal re changing PM again, but pretty fed up of endless sanctimonious politicians, pundits, media etc saying we must have a GE NOW! Labour have changed leader when in power too. We don’t elect a president.
Top marks to Brady for designing a quick election system and one that (possibly insecurely) still satisfies the requirement to involve the membership. But doesn’t the short timeframe benefit the more established, the more well known candidates… and there’s none more well known than Boris. Given a longer contest, Johnson’s flaws could be exposed. But do it quick… doesn’t that favour Johnson (if he gets to the final 2)?
Current situation not ideal re changing PM again, but pretty fed up of endless sanctimonious politicians, pundits, media etc saying we must have a GE NOW! Labour have changed leader when in power too. We don’t elect a president.
That is true, and I defend switches on that basis often.
However, they are limits. If the Tories are not even governing because they are too caught up in the endless petty squabbling, then the argument for an early GE gets stronger and stronger.
@CatNeilan Some mutterings about whether Boris Johnson can hit the 100 mark but both those in the pro and anti-Boris camps seem fairly convinced he'll sail through.
One supporter says they're "looking to have 50 public tonight".
One critic estimates he gets 💥140 💥 on first ballot
Almost this entire website has a blind spot for his electoral appeal don’t they?
I don’t understand it. I don’t want him as PM but I can see he offers a chance of recovery.
I see the grotesque logic to him coming back but if MPs do it I and I’m sure many other right of centre voters will never forgive the Tory Party.
There are some principles bigger than electoral appeal. The assessment Tory MPs made (shared with much of the country I may add) was that Boris Johnson was fundamentally unfit to be PM.
If they bring him back they will effectively be saying “yeah we get that but he’s popular so we don’t care.” No better than the GOP and their Trump lunacy.
I knew Boris was rather keen on trashing our institutions but if the whole Tory Party show themselves as fully complicit in it then there’s no way back for them.
The point you’re missing is that he could win in 2024 without you (or me) who might ordinarily be part of a Tory majority winning coalition.
This is how Gladstone the Tory went off to join the Whigs and ended up Liberal PM. Of course that example doesn’t bode too well for the stories because they were locked out of power for a generation.
Top marks to Brady for designing a quick election system and one that (possibly insecurely) still satisfies the requirement to involve the membership. But doesn’t the short timeframe benefit the more established, the more well known candidates… and there’s none more well known than Boris. Given a longer contest, Johnson’s flaws could be exposed. But do it quick… doesn’t that favour Johnson (if he gets to the final 2)?
Comments
Last time I posted it was to celebrate Mr Johnson's resignation. Has the CPP forgotten that they'd belatedly decided he wasn't fit for office?
Are they taking bets on how many PMs will have come & gone by the time His Majesty is crowned?
If he does get back in then we'll certainly find out whether all the noises off about resignations from the party and outright defections to Labour are anymore than that.
6th September - Truss appointed, calls GE.
8th September - Queen dies. Two weeks added to campaign making GE move from 25 to 35 working days.
GE to be held on Thursday 3rd November.
Truss might not have won it, but she'd have been PM longer than if she didn't call one at all.
Oh, well, we tried to replace him and that was a disaster so better the devil you know.
That is the total extent of their thinking.
http://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1583175328050339841
I think the former is Mordaunt. Boris winning would cause defections, acrimony and resignations that I suspect would make a GE necessary immediately. Conversely I think he actually is the one most likely to win the most seats in a GE (but he would still lose). For the long term future of the party they must not pick him, though.
Rishi I suspect will be undermined by Johnson supporters from the word go.
Has anyone yet backed Boris now who wanted rid of him before?
I doubt she would get to 100 if BJ runs but she may split the vote. However, I think she's smart enough to know (a) she's young enough to stand next time (b) she probably wouldn't get to 100 now and (c) this may be a good one to stand aside for.
The Tory party is desperate and mad as a box of frogs. It's hard to see where a unity candidate comes from and, therefore, easy to see how it ends up fracturing into mutually loathing Sunak and Johnson camps in a state of open warfare with one another. Either man could win.
I expect we are at close to the bottom now. Perhaps the lowest polling will be those taken yesterday, today and the next couple of days. Whichever leader wins will get a bounce because (assuming Braverman isn’t one of them) all are not quite as bad as Truss.
I’d expect Rishi to get the deficit back to about 10 points before levelling off. Penny might have a higher peak as she’s relatively unknown if her first couple of appearances impress. Boris would be fascinating. He would I expect start on higher polling than he finished last time. People have short memories.
Boris might be good for the Lib Dems. I could imagine him gaining a bit of ground back in the red wall at Labour’s expense while shipping votes further in the blue wall, especially if mortgage rates continue upwards.
The last PM to come in as a result of winning a GE was Cameron.
The last PM to come in as PM, having beat his opponent who'd also won a GE was Blair (beating the 1992 GE winner, Major).
The last PM to come in as PM, having beat his opponent who'd also won a GE AND been serving as a result of winning a GE themselves was Wilson all the way back in 1974 (or even Heath in 1970 if you don't consider Wilson's Feb 74 a proper win).
PMs don't win GE anymore to become a PM. They become PM and THEN win a GE........
It does nicely sets up the 'Tory party split' storyline that people have been predicting for years, so maybe it will happen.
Still up £1,300 on Truss but I'm not risking a four figure sum on Boris anymore.
I think enough Tory MPs are dumb enough to do it and the members would seal the deal.
I think Mourdaunt might be a lay here. Looking at Guido's spreadsheet, she is struggling to get momentum and. unless she gets a lot more quickly, this may become a BJ vs RS contest very quickly
My guess is, more than a mere bagatelle? More like a BIG bag-o-moolah!
Number of backers in first confidence vote (210)
-
Number of ministerial resignations (50 odd by the end?)
-
Backbenchers against him by his resignation (?)
-
Those who supported him but would not have
him back
+ Borregretters (not many surely)
Does that really still land at 140?
I don't understand what is happening in the world anymore.
+ Those who think only Boris would save their seat now
Backbenchers/unknown new 2019 MPs not on the payroll may not have been in the 210 first time around but if they think Boris is going to win might back him hoping to be rewarded with a job for the next two years if they do.
I don’t understand it. I don’t want him as PM but I can see he offers a chance of recovery.
Does he want it?Yes. 90%+
Can he get 100 MPs? Yes. He still had 100 supporters when he went and perhaps has more now. 80%
Can he win with the membership? Yes. 80%.
Now they are going to back Rishi and watch him lose to Boris this time. They need to be pragmatic.
Do a deal with Penny. Rishi gets to be FS. Penny stands more chance of beating Boris. Particularly if they join forces.
They need to do it for the sake of the Tory party. Boris winning will rip the party apart.
I could see some of the ultras leaving in those circumstances with the rest of the party happily waving them goodbye.
The first dismiss Boris’s chances of making 100. The second think it is inevitable.
Some biiiiig reputations on the line here.
As dixiedean notes, if he gets on the ballot, he wins.
Reckon odds may be greater than recent "Truss or Bust" funfair?
EDIT - Sorry, should read "Truss AND Bust".
Hunt - nope
Sunak - nope
Truss - NOPE
It'd be even more disfunctional than Truss' cabinet.
Braverman, Badenoch, Baker, Mogg, Dorries......... bloody hell.....
I wanted to believe "no" but on the face of tonight I think Johnson could do it.
It's not enough for me to risk £1.6k
I agree with you. I was going to lay Boris hard earlier today but then took fright. I honestly can't tell how this is going to go.
I said he should be 3/1-4/1
Which is what his odds are, currently.
Pay attention to ping’s betting tips.
Not always winners, but usually value.
Vlad Putin is laughing his tits off tonight.
OR at least let her throw a big Halloween bash . . . with some genuine bashing!
Mordaunt's issue I suspect is that many just don't trust her given what she has said / done in the past.
Boris 140
Sunak 95
Mordaunt 92
Assorted [other] weirdos 38
(FYI - three totally fresh plaice fillets from Waitrose were only £5.04, and the cream, parsley and mushrooms probably only another £4, so you can cook amazing quality family meals for less than a tenner if you Google- but for some reason people fear fish. )
Monday Sunak and Bozo get the nominations
Monday MP vote shows Sunak with 200 votes, Bozo 100-140
Tuesday membership polling shows Bozo winning
Friday members vote for Bozo
Friday / Saturday 40+ Tory MPs cross the floor
The public will be upset that the Conservatives have responded to the multiple serious crises the last PM instigated/worsened by re-electing a deeply unserious man. Johnson is lazy and won't want to actually deal with these crises beyond throwing money at them, so he'll start by sacking Hunt et al which will make things worse. In November, he'll then run into the brick wall of the Standards Committee, which will have multiple televised hours of witnesses talking about how much of a clown Johnson is while the country burns around him.
It will destroy the party and salt the earth behind it. Extinction.
I thought the odds were very good on Boris a couple of hours ago, now hovering over the cash out button. Might make £30. Its my first bet for years.
Might need to order a supersized bucket of popcorn.
> BJ supporters want to build him up and manufacture unstoppable (also unspeakable) momentum.
> BJ opponents & supporters of others (not total crossover) want to scare the shit out of waverers and spoilers.
There isn't a unity candidate, 40 (and counting) backers for Boris even now shows the 150+ anti-Borisers are not enough to get to majority.
There are some principles bigger than electoral appeal. The assessment Tory MPs made (shared with much of the country I may add) was that Boris Johnson was fundamentally unfit to be PM.
If they bring him back they will effectively be saying “yeah we get that but he’s popular so we don’t care.” No better than the GOP and their Trump lunacy.
I knew Boris was rather keen on trashing our institutions but if the whole Tory Party show themselves as fully complicit in it then there’s no way back for them.
Truss's tax cuts went too far, but Sunak's tax rises were never justifiable.
It has to be Penny.
I don't see who else it can be.
However, they are limits. If the Tories are not even governing because they are too caught up in the endless petty squabbling, then the argument for an early GE gets stronger and stronger.
This is how Gladstone the Tory went off to join the Whigs and ended up Liberal PM. Of course that example doesn’t bode too well for the stories because they were locked out of power for a generation.