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Could TMay be back as a temporary PM? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,003
edited November 2022 in General
imageCould TMay be back as a temporary PM? – politicalbetting.com

Assuming for a moment that to Liz Truss is ousted then is she really going to stay in post while a leadership election is carried out? That would seem a nonsense and is why there’s a lot of talk about an agreed candidate going forward without a membership ballot.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    We're in the endgame now.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,369
    edited October 2022
    Betting-wise: hope so*
    Country-wise: I'm past caring really; no hope until after the next GE, I think - the Tory civil war continues whatever, I think

    *I'm all green on next PM, had her at 60, but sold most of it when the markets got excited on rumour .Truss hanging on to next year (or later!), going without a confidence vote and being replaced by May is the best outcome for me. But most important of those is that there isn't a confidence vote.

    ETA: Oh, and first?
    EATA: Oh, second :disappointed: Like May's next stint as PM (if it ever happens, which I still doubt)
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1583049506832076800

    Downing Street says Liz Truss is currently meeting with the chair of the 1922 Committee of backbench Conservatives Sir Graham Brady

    For more on this and other news visit http://trib.al/Rx0iR33
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    I think there are enough Tory MPs who would rather take the ship down than have the Maybot back again.
  • Options
    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,727
    We don't need another idiotic leadership election. Tory MPs should do their duty or resign.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    Breaking - Brady now walking into no. 10 to meet the PM

    The PM who this morning said she had no plans to meet Brady
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,239
    Fingers crossed.

    From a betting POV.
  • Options
    PhilPhil Posts: 1,928
    Has she gone yet?
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,477
    Isn't Theresa May gonna lose the Tory Whip, because she abstained during last night's Clusterfrack?

    First it was a VOC, then it wasn't - but now it's back to being a VOC again, according to at least one media report?
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Phil said:

    Has she gone yet?

    We can only hope
  • Options
    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Who is the unity candidate? For me Mordaunt looks fairly middle-of-the-road. Which group does she offend?

    Loads of Tory MPs want Rishi Sunak in charge but to show how strongly some don’t- I’ve just spoken to an MP who thinks Sunak’s warnings about market reaction was a big part of why markets then reacted like that. And said “if Rishi Sunak wins, the Conservative party is finished”
    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1583049661165993984
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,239
    Mike’s holiday might actually be a quiet time for me, relatively speaking.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,520
    FPT... Everyone says there can't be another leadership contest, but there's no sign of a coronation or an agreed candidate. Truss can't hold on much longer. Ergo, there will have to be a leadership contest. Truss will presumably stay in office. (There were plenty of reasons for Johnson not to, and he did.) If there's a membership vote, then presumably Truss remains PM until 2023.

    So, is it worth betting on a '23 exit for Truss?

    Re: this thread... I think everyone's over-estimating the idea of a caretaker leader.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    QTWTIAN.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Alphabet_Soup said:

    We don't need another idiotic leadership election. Tory MPs should do their duty or resign.

    That would be the icing on the rather stale Tory cake - another 3 month hiatus as idiots parade themselves in front of the gullible selectorate...
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,241
    For goodness sake just go Truss
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,624
    AlistairM said:

    Who is the unity candidate? For me Mordaunt looks fairly middle-of-the-road. Which group does she offend?

    Loads of Tory MPs want Rishi Sunak in charge but to show how strongly some don’t- I’ve just spoken to an MP who thinks Sunak’s warnings about market reaction was a big part of why markets then reacted like that. And said “if Rishi Sunak wins, the Conservative party is finished”
    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1583049661165993984

    The anti woke.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,567
    edited October 2022
    Wallace on Front Bench so Ukraine statement may be due soon.

    Edit - Now.
  • Options
    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Alphabet_Soup said:

    We don't need another idiotic leadership election. Tory MPs should do their duty or resign.

    That would be the icing on the rather stale Tory cake - another 3 month hiatus as idiots parade themselves in front of the gullible selectorate...
    Surely they're not stupid enough to do that? Yes, of course that is what the country needs.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,369
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    For goodness sake just go Truss

    I think you're missing a comma? Otherwise it looks like you're demanding the Tory party go [for] Truss? And I don't think you're insane :wink:
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited October 2022
    May-be, May-be not.

    The DPM is Coffey. She is the interim candidates surely.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,719
    Apparently Liz Truss requested the meeting with Brady so it doesn’t look like he’s turning up telling her to go .
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,477
    AlistairM said:

    Who is the unity candidate? For me Mordaunt looks fairly middle-of-the-road. Which group does she offend?

    Loads of Tory MPs want Rishi Sunak in charge but to show how strongly some don’t- I’ve just spoken to an MP who thinks Sunak’s warnings about market reaction was a big part of why markets then reacted like that. And said “if Rishi Sunak wins, the Conservative party is finished”
    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1583049661165993984

    Anti-woke warriors as I recall.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,155
    Downing Street claiming the PM asked to see Mrs Brady not the other way round.

    Resigning?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999
    Selebian said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    For goodness sake just go Truss

    I think you're missing a comma? Otherwise it looks like you're demanding the Tory party go [for] Truss? And I don't think you're insane :wink:
    I thought it was a new phrasal verb: "to go Truss".
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    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited October 2022
    Reminder of the betfair market rules;

    “Who will be the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Liz Truss?

    This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Liz Truss, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest or whatever mechanism the Conservative Party decide to use to select their next permanent leader. Interim/temporary leaders will not count.”

    We’ve had this debate many times on PB.

    It’s still, to me, clear as mud as to how Betfair will settle, in such a scenario.

    Nice odds, Mike, but I don’t trust betfair to pay out.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,255
    Theresa May victory would pay for a nice hamper from Fortnum & Mason for Christmas.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,894
    CarlottaVance said:

    Wallace on Front Bench so Ukraine statement may be due soon.

    Edit - Now.

    Tbh his job is far more important than being the PM right now. Whoever - May, Sunak, Braverman is in charge he'll carry on with it. A good reason he won't run.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,567
    ping said:

    Reminder of the betfair market rules;

    “Who will be the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Liz Truss?

    This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Liz Truss, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest or whatever mechanism the Conservative Party decide to use to select their next permanent leader. Interim/temporary leaders will not count.”

    We’ve had this debate many times on PB.

    It’s still, to me, clear as mud as to how Betfair will settle, in such a scenario.

    "permanent" in the current context ...
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,095
    Casino_Royale said:

    Theresa May victory would pay for a nice hamper from Fortnum & Mason for Christmas.

    The look on Johnson's face would keep us all nice and warm all winter through...
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,719
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Downing Street claiming the PM asked to see Mrs Brady not the other way round.

    Resigning?

    I’d be gobsmacked if she’s met Brady to resign . Don’t PMs hang on like limpets till the bitter end .
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    MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 156
    Apparently Truss called the meeting with Brady, what does this mean....
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,543
    Selebian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    QTWTIAN.

    QTWTIAN?

    Question to which the idiots all nod?
    Could be QTWNITA

    Or how about QWNITAT Or is that the sort of language up with which we will not put?

    (I cannot sensibly parse 'QIN TWAT unfortunately)
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,567
    nico679 said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Downing Street claiming the PM asked to see Mrs Brady not the other way round.

    Resigning?

    I’d be gobsmacked if she’s met Brady to resign . Don’t PMs hang on like limpets till the bitter end .
    Limpet mines ...
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    edited October 2022
    Consensus seems to be today is probably the end of the road.

    Still time for you to unwind your bet, Mr Casino....
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    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    MPartridge said:

    Apparently Truss called the meeting with Brady, what does this mean....

    She's not telling the truth?
  • Options
    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,727
    ping said:

    Reminder of the betfair market rules;

    “Who will be the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Liz Truss?

    This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Liz Truss, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest or whatever mechanism the Conservative Party decide to use to select their next permanent leader. Interim/temporary leaders will not count.”

    We’ve had this debate many times on PB.

    It’s still, to me, clear as mud as to how Betfair will settle, in such a scenario.

    Nice odds, Mike, but I don’t trust betfair to pay out.

    Philosophically, of course, nothing is permanent. But using the word in connection with the Tory Party leadership is just muddying the waters.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,894
    IanB2 said:

    Consensus seems to be today is probably the end of the road.

    Still time for you to unwind your bet, Mr Casino....

    You can't unwind a bet at 1-8.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    Carnyx said:

    ping said:

    Reminder of the betfair market rules;

    “Who will be the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Liz Truss?

    This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Liz Truss, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest or whatever mechanism the Conservative Party decide to use to select their next permanent leader. Interim/temporary leaders will not count.”

    We’ve had this debate many times on PB.

    It’s still, to me, clear as mud as to how Betfair will settle, in such a scenario.

    "permanent" in the current context ...
    That's not the next PM market though.
  • Options
    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703
    edited October 2022
    williamglenn said:

    Selebian said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    For goodness sake just go Truss

    I think you're missing a comma? Otherwise it looks like you're demanding the Tory party go [for] Truss? And I don't think you're insane :wink:
    I thought it was a new phrasal verb: "to go Truss".
    Let’s go, Liz?
    Let go, Liz?
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    nico679 said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Downing Street claiming the PM asked to see Mrs Brady not the other way round.

    Resigning?

    I’d be gobsmacked if she’s met Brady to resign . Don’t PMs hang on like limpets till the bitter end .
    Perhaps she is asking him to resign? There is no need for that 1922 thingie any more...
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,369
    Last time the Cons chose May, she called an early election :lol:
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    Selebian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    QTWTIAN.

    QTWTIAN?

    Question to which the idiots all nod?
    Ok ok. I typed too quickly.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,051
    MPartridge said:

    Apparently Truss called the meeting with Brady, what does this mean....

    She might be playing for time - agree that there will be a leadership contest in spring 2024 to replace her with a new leader to fight the election, but in the meantime she stays on.

    Lots of things she might try. Even if Brady agrees, the rest of the party probably won't.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,567
    NeilVW said:

    williamglenn said:

    Selebian said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    For goodness sake just go Truss

    I think you're missing a comma? Otherwise it looks like you're demanding the Tory party go [for] Truss? And I don't think you're insane :wink:
    I thought it was a new phrasal verb: "to go Truss".
    Let’s go, Liz?
    Let go, Liz?
    Let's go Truss [mode]?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,255
    IanB2 said:

    Consensus seems to be today is probably the end of the road.

    Still time for you to unwind your bet, Mr Casino....

    Did it last night
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,095
    oooh, that was a dolly.

    That was a worse error than making Suella Braverman home secretary.

    Dropped the catch, missed the runout...
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,255
    Starmer’s price finally starting to fly out.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,290
    BBC
    "Miriam Cates, an executive member of the 1922 Committee of backbench MPs, is among those publicly calling for Liz Truss to stand down as prime minister, describing her position is "untenable"."
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    Theo Usherwood
    @theousherwood
    ·
    8m
    Getting the impression senior people in Number 10 know the game is up.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    1.11
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,135
    Benpointer said:

    Selebian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    QTWTIAN.

    QTWTIAN?

    Question to which the idiots all nod?
    Could be QTWNITA

    Or how about QWNITAT Or is that the sort of language up with which we will not put?

    (I cannot sensibly parse 'QIN TWAT unfortunately)
    "Question Implying Nothing That Would Approach the Truth"
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    It would be very ironic if she went today after that photo in The Sun last night of her looking very distraught through a car window. I am recalling Maggie (LT's apparent role model) who had a similar, tearful photo taken through a car window when she was deposed.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,095
    rottenborough said:

    1.11

    You think she'll last another hour?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,543
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    The scriptwriters of this politics drama are getting a bit tired now. We've had this storyline before, it doesn't seem plausible anymore to keep replaying these same dramas.

    Doubt the show is going to be renewed when the contract ends in 2024.

    Like a lot of shows the first series is not too bad but then the producers run out of ideas and the whole thing just drags aimlessly on and on.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Today would be good... :smile:
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    rottenborough said:

    Carnyx said:

    ping said:

    Reminder of the betfair market rules;

    “Who will be the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Liz Truss?

    This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Liz Truss, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest or whatever mechanism the Conservative Party decide to use to select their next permanent leader. Interim/temporary leaders will not count.”

    We’ve had this debate many times on PB.

    It’s still, to me, clear as mud as to how Betfair will settle, in such a scenario.

    "permanent" in the current context ...
    That's not the next PM market though.
    Sorry, yes. My confusion. The rules I posted were from the next con leader.

    The rules are a lot clearer on the next PM market.

    Good tip, @MikeSmithson

    I’m on for £8 at 38
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    ydoethur said:

    rottenborough said:

    1.11

    You think she'll last another hour?
    Depends how long Brady chats about the weather with Truss before saying, "Well, Prime Minister, to come to the reason I have come along this morning'...
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,477
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    The scriptwriters of this politics drama are getting a bit tired now. We've had this storyline before, it doesn't seem plausible anymore to keep replaying these same dramas.

    Doubt the show is going to be renewed when the contract ends in 2024.

    Rather reminiscent of the trajectory of the US version of "The Apprentice"!

    Though that show DID have a rather dramatic sequel, to put it mildly. Which isn't quite done with yet . . .
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,604
    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Trying to stretch it out past Canning?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    Beibheirli_C said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Today would be good... :smile:
    Informed speculation - timetable to be announced later, maybe a short period where she gets the financial statement done, then steps down for a successor appointed by MPs (no member vote).
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,434
    So if she does go though - what unholy fury could the Tory Party be about to subject itself to if a successor hasn’t been agreed?

    Braverman wants to be leader and she will scweam and scweam if she doesn’t get a membership vote.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    ping said:

    rottenborough said:

    Carnyx said:

    ping said:

    Reminder of the betfair market rules;

    “Who will be the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Liz Truss?

    This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Liz Truss, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest or whatever mechanism the Conservative Party decide to use to select their next permanent leader. Interim/temporary leaders will not count.”

    We’ve had this debate many times on PB.

    It’s still, to me, clear as mud as to how Betfair will settle, in such a scenario.

    "permanent" in the current context ...
    That's not the next PM market though.
    Sorry, yes. My confusion. The rules I posted were from the next con leader.

    The rules are a lot clearer on the next PM market.

    Good tip, @MikeSmithson

    I’m on for £8 at 38
    £2 at 40.

    What larks!!! :smiley:
  • Options
    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    IanB2 said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Today would be good... :smile:
    Informed speculation - timetable to be announced later, maybe a short period where she gets the financial statement done, then steps down for a successor appointed by MPs (no member vote).
    How do they get around the party constitution which requires a member vote?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    That is - of course - just speculation.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,878
    numbertwelve said:

    So if she does go though - what unholy fury could the Tory Party be about to subject itself to if a successor hasn’t been agreed?

    Braverman wants to be leader and she will scweam and scweam if she doesn’t get a membership vote.

    Let's see if the membership have got the message
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,095
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Trying to stretch it out past Canning?
    She'll be lucky to make Bermondsey at this rate, although she has of course got past London Bridge.
  • Options
    DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    19 October '22 - famous meeting at the Carlton.
    20 October '22 - Old Lady meets Truss.
    22 October '62 - Kennedy announces blockade (billed a "quarantine") of Cuba
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    numbertwelve said:

    So if she does go though - what unholy fury could the Tory Party be about to subject itself to if a successor hasn’t been agreed?

    Braverman wants to be leader and she will scweam and scweam if she doesn’t get a membership vote.

    Yes, there is a real risk of yet another disaster coming down the tracks here.

  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,346
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Trying to stretch it out past Canning?
    Stay to get the MTFS announcements out on Hallow'een, then go.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999
    ydoethur said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Trying to stretch it out past Canning?
    She'll be lucky to make Bermondsey at this rate, although she has of course got past London Bridge.
    Not without it falling down.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,241
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Downing Street claiming the PM asked to see Mrs Brady not the other way round.

    Resigning?

    I think you could be right and it maybe the details as to whether she goes now or resigns but allows a successor to be found
  • Options
    DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    IanB2 said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Today would be good... :smile:
    Informed speculation - timetable to be announced later, maybe a short period where she gets the financial statement done, then steps down for a successor appointed by MPs (no member vote).
    "Do the budget for us on your way out the door"? Doesn't sound likely.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,719
    The Tories surely wouldn’t risk another dud given even they couldn’t change the PM again .

    Operation stop the stain on humanity Braverman must be their top priority .
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,095
    williamglenn said:

    ydoethur said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Trying to stretch it out past Canning?
    She'll be lucky to make Bermondsey at this rate, although she has of course got past London Bridge.
    Not without it falling down.
    Her version of Operation Unicorn ended in disaster too.
  • Options
    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    That is - of course - just speculation.
    If they are discussing a timetable then they need to make it fast.
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,604
    Killed the Queen
    Tanked the Economy
    Shortest Premiership ever.

    Not a bad hat trick for a human hand grenade.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    nico679 said:

    The Tories surely wouldn’t risk another dud given even they couldn’t change the PM again .

    Operation stop the stain on humanity Braverman must be their top priority .

    You would have thought.

    But maybe the breakdown is so bad that they just can't control events at all.

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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    edited October 2022
    Just chatted eith Pa Woolie on the phone. He concludes, and i sonewhat agree, that they cannot possibly fight another election ever again under the banner 'Conservative' and the splitting faction stands to gain most. Whether that be Spartans as a dozen seat party on the Saxon Shore as some new kipper/bxp variant or a centrist party as a new opposition.
    So mote it be
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    That new lecturn was a great investment.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,477
    Stuartinromford said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Trying to stretch it out past Canning?
    Stay to get the MTFS announcements out on Hallow'een, then go.
    So have Liz Truss masks yet approached popularity of Boris Johnson masks for Halloween?

    Or reckoned too scary for kids?
  • Options
    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    There's no way that the 33% threshold hasn't been reached, surely?

    Tory MP as Sir Graham Brady walks into Number 10:

    “She’s got to be gone by the end of the day. Her position is totally untenable. Lots of letters going in right now.”
    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1583056349302177792
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,595
    Driver said:

    IanB2 said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Today would be good... :smile:
    Informed speculation - timetable to be announced later, maybe a short period where she gets the financial statement done, then steps down for a successor appointed by MPs (no member vote).
    How do they get around the party constitution which requires a member vote?
    MPs decide on a single name, the winner immediately becomes PM, then members are given a vote on whether they agreed that X should continue as leader and PM?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,220
    edited October 2022
    ping said:

    Reminder of the betfair market rules;

    “Who will be the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Liz Truss?

    This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Liz Truss, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest or whatever mechanism the Conservative Party decide to use to select their next permanent leader. Interim/temporary leaders will not count.”

    We’ve had this debate many times on PB.

    It’s still, to me, clear as mud as to how Betfair will settle, in such a scenario.

    Nice odds, Mike, but I don’t trust betfair to pay out.

    There are separate markets for next Conservative leader and for next Prime Minister. Whether you are on Betfair or a bookmaker, or Smarkets, check what you are where you intend. Is Keir Starmer quoted?

    Betfair next Tory leader
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.203022920

    Betfair next Prime Minister
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.203032939

    You are right that interpreting the rules can get messy.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,567
    No 10 source says Truss brought in Sir Graham Brady to "take the temperature" of the party

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1583056333036978176
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,604
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Trying to stretch it out past Canning?
    Stay to get the MTFS announcements out on Hallow'een, then go.
    So have Liz Truss masks yet approached popularity of Boris Johnson masks for Halloween?

    Or reckoned too scary for kids?
    Kids probably don't know who she is.

    Then again, when the world's new media don't know who she is, why should they?

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/australian-news-readers-liz-truss-queen-funeral-b1026642.html
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,567
    williamglenn said:

    ydoethur said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Trying to stretch it out past Canning?
    She'll be lucky to make Bermondsey at this rate, although she has of course got past London Bridge.
    Not without it falling down.
    Is this Op Tay Bridge?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    CarlottaVance said:

    No 10 source says Truss brought in Sir Graham Brady to "take the temperature" of the party

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1583056333036978176

    Super-heated steam, PM, super-heated steam.....
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    edited October 2022
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Driver said:

    IanB2 said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Today would be good... :smile:
    Informed speculation - timetable to be announced later, maybe a short period where she gets the financial statement done, then steps down for a successor appointed by MPs (no member vote).
    How do they get around the party constitution which requires a member vote?
    MPs decide on a single name, the winner immediately becomes PM, then members are given a vote on whether they agreed that X should continue as leader and PM?
    They'll find a way to avoid the members

    Justified because of the urgency; less justified on the wisdom as the MPs could have put Hunt and Mordaunt to the members if they'd had any sense themselves.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,719
    CarlottaVance said:

    No 10 source says Truss brought in Sir Graham Brady to "take the temperature" of the party

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1583056333036978176

    Lmao ! Has Truss been living under a rock for the last few weeks !
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    PhilPhil Posts: 1,928
    Jonathan said:

    When the story of this is written, the role of the opposition has been instrumental from start to finish. From keeping the heat up on partygate, taking the lead on energy payments to tabling the motion on fracking last night, the opposition has set the agenda and laid traps that the government has run into. Impressive and underrated.

    The opposition has done sterling work, but it has to be said: when the opposition digs an elephant trap on the road in front of you & decorates it with illuminated signs saying “elephant trap here” at least some responsibility for walking straight into said elephant trap must reside with the government.

    The opposition set up the opportunity but it was the government’s own choice to walk directly into the obvious pit full of spikes in front of them.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,095
    This is building up to be a very tense finish.

    And apart from the cricket, the politics is getting a bit hairy too.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,290
    CarlottaVance said:

    No 10 source says Truss brought in Sir Graham Brady to "take the temperature" of the party

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1583056333036978176

    So long as it's not an average.
    Some will be past boiling; others ice cold.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,051
    Stuartinromford said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Trying to stretch it out past Canning?
    Stay to get the MTFS announcements out on Hallow'een, then go.
    If her successor is not in place in time for the MTFS then the statement is pointless. No idea what bits of it a successor would stick to.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,184
    Come on Boris.
This discussion has been closed.