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Could TMay be back as a temporary PM? – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Trying to stretch it out past Canning?
    She'll be lucky to make Bermondsey at this rate, although she has of course got past London Bridge.
    Not without it falling down.
    Is this Op Tay Bridge?
    The demise of Truss would surely be Operation Humber Bridge.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Today would be good... :smile:
    Informed speculation - timetable to be announced later, maybe a short period where she gets the financial statement done, then steps down for a successor appointed by MPs (no member vote).
    There is no agreed replacement, so there has to be some sort of leadership contests. The Conservative Party constitution requires a member vote. So, you have to have a process by which MPs pick someone and everyone else agrees not to go to the membership. This is not going to happen.
  • Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    IanB2 said:

    That new lecturn was a great investment.

    It’s horrible. Needs to go. Symbolises the twisted nature of this government.
  • ydoethur said:

    This is building up to be a very tense finish.

    And apart from the cricket, the politics is getting a bit hairy too.

    What cricket are you watching? UAE v Namibia or is there something else I didn't realise was on?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited October 2022
    BREAKING: Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tells MPs that on September 29 an RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint spy plane was being shadowed by two Russian Su-27s in international airspace when one of the Su-27s "released a missle in the vicinity of the Rivet Joint".....

    ....Ben Wallace says "we don't consider this a deliberate escalation by the Russians" but adds it is "a reminder of quite how dangerous things can be when you choose to use fighters in the way the Russians have done"


    https://twitter.com/benglaze/status/1583052951865634816
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Trying to stretch it out past Canning?
    Stay to get the MTFS announcements out on Hallow'een, then go.
    She now has no authority to have anything to do with an upcoming Budget. That should be down to her successor.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1583056777951617025
    Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says a Russian fighter jet "released a missile" in the vicinity of an RAF aircraft that was flying over the Black Sea on 29 September

    For more on this and other news visit http://trib.al/Rx0iR33

    yikes!!!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723

    No 10 source says Truss brought in Sir Graham Brady to "take the temperature" of the party

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1583056333036978176

    Super-heated steam, PM, super-heated steam.....
    They were literally fighting with each other in the division lobby if reports are to be believed.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Driver said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Today would be good... :smile:
    Informed speculation - timetable to be announced later, maybe a short period where she gets the financial statement done, then steps down for a successor appointed by MPs (no member vote).
    How do they get around the party constitution which requires a member vote?
    MPs decide on a single name, the winner immediately becomes PM, then members are given a vote on whether they agreed that X should continue as leader and PM?
    Doesn't fulfil the requirement for the 1922 to produce "a choice of candidates". The only way I can see avoiding a membership vote is a repeat of 2016 - but how do you guarantee one of the final two withdrawing?

    I do have one thought, which is to have the MPs vote on the final two as a "recommendation" to the membership - that could put enough pressure on the loser to withdraw.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    I've had a fiver at 70-1.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    God help us !
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Coffey now at the meeting
  • Speaking of History, yesterday, 19 October (Brit style) was 100th anniversary of Carlton Club meeting of Tory backbenchers that led to defenestration of Lloyd George and his Coalition, including Conservative Party Leader Sir Austin Chamberlain.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Trying to stretch it out past Canning?
    She'll be lucky to make Bermondsey at this rate, although she has of course got past London Bridge.
    Not without it falling down.
    Is this Op Tay Bridge?
    The demise of Truss would surely be Operation Humber Bridge.
    Operation Tacoma Narrows surely.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    IanB2 said:

    Coffey now at the meeting

    Any biscuits?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362

    Killed the Queen
    Tanked the Economy
    Shortest Premiership ever.

    Not a bad hat trick for a human hand grenade.

    Prevented the NHS & Social Care Levy from seeing the light of day.

    Having a different Prime Minister every 50 days could work out reasonably well if we have good control over their singular achievement. The government could achieve seven good things a year.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    edited October 2022
    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Just the minor problem that she'd be even worse.

    Perhaps Loopy just needs some pills?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Trying to stretch it out past Canning?
    Stay to get the MTFS announcements out on Hallow'een, then go.
    She now has no authority to have anything to do with an upcoming Budget. That should be down to her successor.
    It was.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,671

    BREAKING: Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tells MPs that on September 29 an RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint spy plane was being shadowed by two Russian Su-27s in international airspace when one of the Su-27s "released a missle in the vicinity of the Rivet Joint".....

    ....Ben Wallace says "we don't consider this a deliberate escalation by the Russians" but adds it is "a reminder of quite how dangerous things can be when you choose to use fighters in the way the Russians have done"


    https://twitter.com/benglaze/status/1583052951865634816

    Offfft.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited October 2022
    IanB2 said:

    Coffey now at the meeting

    No tea? How odd!

    Addendum - Smoke 'em if you got 'em. (Cough, cough.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    And the disadvantage of being more than a bit Trussish.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    I hear @SuellaBraverman personal statement might be on Monday. She might have missed the boat

    https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1583055474168983552
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    ydoethur said:

    This is building up to be a very tense finish.

    And apart from the cricket, the politics is getting a bit hairy too.

    What cricket are you watching? UAE v Namibia or is there something else I didn't realise was on?
    That's the one, although that catch settled it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    OMG don't do that!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    IanB2 said:

    Coffey now at the meeting

    Will they serve biscuits too?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723

    I hear @SuellaBraverman personal statement might be on Monday. She might have missed the boat

    https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1583055474168983552

    Dunno. Might be first day of the new leadership race.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Downing Street claiming the PM asked to see Mrs Brady not the other way round.

    Resigning?

    I think you could be right and it maybe the details as to whether she goes now or resigns but allows a successor to be found
    "I could go today. But that gives us acting PM Coffey. What's the Party's temperature on that?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813

    BREAKING: Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tells MPs that on September 29 an RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint spy plane was being shadowed by two Russian Su-27s in international airspace when one of the Su-27s "released a missle in the vicinity of the Rivet Joint".....

    ....Ben Wallace says "we don't consider this a deliberate escalation by the Russians" but adds it is "a reminder of quite how dangerous things can be when you choose to use fighters in the way the Russians have done"


    https://twitter.com/benglaze/status/1583052951865634816

    Very glad calm heads prevailed there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    edited October 2022
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Coffey now at the meeting

    Any biscuits?
    Coffey is actually a really slim woman, but she has a fully equipped medicine cabinet concealed under her clothing.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    The PMs last duty is to recommend who HM invites next. Charles does not have to think about it for a second.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    I'm the only person in the country who wants Therese Coffey to kiss hands with Charles right now aren't I ?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    BREAKING: Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tells MPs that on September 29 an RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint spy plane was being shadowed by two Russian Su-27s in international airspace when one of the Su-27s "released a missle in the vicinity of the Rivet Joint".....

    ....Ben Wallace says "we don't consider this a deliberate escalation by the Russians" but adds it is "a reminder of quite how dangerous things can be when you choose to use fighters in the way the Russians have done"


    https://twitter.com/benglaze/status/1583052951865634816

    Those Rivet Joints have been patrolling the Black Sea for months. Taking turns with a US drone I think. The launch of the missile was clearly a warning. Russia surely though knows what it would entail if they shot one down.
  • Phil said:

    Jonathan said:

    When the story of this is written, the role of the opposition has been instrumental from start to finish. From keeping the heat up on partygate, taking the lead on energy payments to tabling the motion on fracking last night, the opposition has set the agenda and laid traps that the government has run into. Impressive and underrated.

    The opposition has done sterling work, but it has to be said: when the opposition digs an elephant trap on the road in front of you & decorates it with illuminated signs saying “elephant trap here” at least some responsibility for walking straight into said elephant trap must reside with the government.

    The opposition set up the opportunity but it was the government’s own choice to walk directly into the obvious pit full of spikes in front of them.
    They were mistakes pure and simple not elephant traps.

    Party gate would have been solved by a simple initial - "We were working very hard at the time in the same building and thought it would be ok to relax together in the evenings. This was completely wrong, unacceptable and we apologise sincerely."

    Everyone knew we needed an energy bail out, apart from the ideological right.

    Fracking, again, we are not going to have a fracking industry, everyone knows this, apart from the ideological right.
  • Killed the Queen
    Tanked the Economy
    Shortest Premiership ever.

    Not a bad hat trick for a human hand grenade.

    Prevented the NHS & Social Care Levy from seeing the light of day.

    Having a different Prime Minister every 50 days could work out reasonably well if we have good control over their singular achievement. The government could achieve seven good things a year.
    If only Sunak hadn't introduced that Levy.

    Truss would never have needed to become PM to kill it, and my 5000 bet would have come in.

    Gah!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Pulpstar said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    I've had a fiver at 70-1.
    That's v good. Not BF?
  • Pulpstar said:

    I'm the only person in the country who wants Therese Coffey to kiss hands with Charles right now aren't I ?

    At 70/1 good luck
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648

    Not a bad hat trick for a human hand grenade.

    Perhaps she should go to Moscow for talks with Putin.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Pulpstar said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    I've had a fiver at 70-1.
    That's v good. Not BF?
    Smarkets next PM.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm the only person in the country who wants Therese Coffey to kiss hands with Charles right now aren't I ?

    No - I would be quids in. Would pay for a good chunk of my xmas pressies to all the rels.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,841

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Back out at 1.16 on exit
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    As an aside, if Hunt became PM today that'd be five Chancellors in four months.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Coffey now at the meeting

    Any biscuits?
    Coffey is actually a really slim woman, but she has a fully equipped medicine cabinet concealed under her clothing.
    ....and a humidor cabinet!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
    Yes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,160

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Today would be good... :smile:
    Informed speculation - timetable to be announced later, maybe a short period where she gets the financial statement done, then steps down for a successor appointed by MPs (no member vote).
    There is no agreed replacement, so there has to be some sort of leadership contests. The Conservative Party constitution requires a member vote. So, you have to have a process by which MPs pick someone and everyone else agrees not to go to the membership. This is not going to happen.
    It may not be likely, but it's entirely possible it happens. All it requires is a that there is an informal agreement that the second place finisher decides to quit the contest prior to a members' vote.

    In the past twenty years, we've had that happen two times: once in opposition, when Michael Howard took over from IDS, and once in government when Ms May got the job from Mr Cameron.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Thread:

    I'm told Liz Truss called for the meeting with Graham Brady to discuss imminent changes to 'the rules'.

    A VONC is coming


    https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1583053963867623430
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Coffey now at the meeting

    Will they serve biscuits too?
    Crackers would be more appropriate. Served with CHEESE.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Breaking - sex abuse enquiry recommends making failure to report suspicions a criminal offence
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
    Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    Thread:

    I'm told Liz Truss called for the meeting with Graham Brady to discuss imminent changes to 'the rules'.

    A VONC is coming


    https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1583053963867623430

    If he's already got over 120 letters, hardly necessary? She must know further humiliation awaits
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking - sex abuse enquiry recommends making failure to report suspicions a criminal offence

    And then nobody sane is going to want to work with children.

    Not workable in practice.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    As an aside, if Hunt became PM today that'd be five Chancellors in four months.

    What is Italian for "Chancellor"?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    This is precisely the moment I would like Steve Baker to put himself forward as unity candidate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    IanB2 said:

    Thread:

    I'm told Liz Truss called for the meeting with Graham Brady to discuss imminent changes to 'the rules'.

    A VONC is coming


    https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1583053963867623430

    If he's already got over 120 letters, hardly necessary? She must know further humiliation awaits
    My guess is she thinks there is a way to engineer things so that the choice is a) keep me or b) there will be a leadership race involving the bloody members who might well elect Braverman.

    Seems there is no sign of a unity candidate.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    ping said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking - sex abuse enquiry recommends making failure to report suspicions a criminal offence

    And then nobody sane is going to want to work with children.

    Not workable in practice.
    Surely "having suspicions" is impossible to prove beyond reasonable doubt without an admission?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,841

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
    Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
    Shouldn't doesn't mean she won't.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Truss (officially) launched her leadership campaign on 11th July. On 6th September (57 days later) she became PM. She needs to hang on until 3rd November to spend more days as PM than she did campaigning for the job.

    https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1583054990049804288
  • Weather or not you want it report.

    Air quality in Seattle is now slightly improved, now AQ1=230 = very unhealthy. So bad it actually woke me up in middle of night (why I'm up working AND typing here).

    Wind's are shifting, and sloooooowly begining to bring in clean(er) air from North Pacific, with rain (which we need badly) forecast for Friday into next week.

    This is the second time in four or five years we've had MAJOR problem with forest fire smoke. NOT something that was the norm for my first quarter century in the great Pacific Northwest.

    Anyone who tries to tell you that global warming isn't real, is blowing smoke up your ass.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited October 2022

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
    Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
    I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Scary graphic of the effect of flooding on Kherson if the dam is blown by the Russians...

    https://twitter.com/UkraineNewsLive/status/1583060165070581760
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
    Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
    She's a handgrenade.

    And a republican.

    Maybe she plans to take Chas down with her???
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Weather or not you want it report.

    Air quality in Seattle is now slightly improved, now AQ1=230 = very unhealthy. So bad it actually woke me up in middle of night (why I'm up working AND typing here).

    Wind's are shifting, and sloooooowly begining to bring in clean(er) air from North Pacific, with rain (which we need badly) forecast for Friday into next week.

    This is the second time in four or five years we've had MAJOR problem with forest fire smoke. NOT something that was the norm for my first quarter century in the great Pacific Northwest.

    Anyone who tries to tell you that global warming isn't real, is blowing smoke up your ass.

    And your nose, it seems. Very sorry to hear it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,671
    edited October 2022

    Scary graphic of the effect of flooding on Kherson if the dam is blown by the Russians...

    https://twitter.com/UkraineNewsLive/status/1583060165070581760

    Doesn't blowing up the dam permanently turn off the taps for Crimea?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
    Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
    I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons.
    The issue would be how long for. If she is a 'caretaker' then what timetable for an election or a new leadership is there. What assurances of any policy changes or no policy changes would there be?

    Messy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Thread:

    I'm told Liz Truss called for the meeting with Graham Brady to discuss imminent changes to 'the rules'.

    A VONC is coming


    https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1583053963867623430

    "Back me - or sack me!"

    "Bugger....."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    TOPPING said:

    This is precisely the moment I would like Steve Baker to put himself forward as unity candidate.

    He came across OK on Peston - even willing to contemplate a Sunak succession. He's clearly trying to distance himself from his nutjob past.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Today would be good... :smile:
    Informed speculation - timetable to be announced later, maybe a short period where she gets the financial statement done, then steps down for a successor appointed by MPs (no member vote).
    There is no agreed replacement, so there has to be some sort of leadership contests. The Conservative Party constitution requires a member vote. So, you have to have a process by which MPs pick someone and everyone else agrees not to go to the membership. This is not going to happen.
    It may not be likely, but it's entirely possible it happens. All it requires is a that there is an informal agreement that the second place finisher decides to quit the contest prior to a members' vote.

    In the past twenty years, we've had that happen two times: once in opposition, when Michael Howard took over from IDS, and once in government when Ms May got the job from Mr Cameron.
    I was being overly forthright. You're right: it is possible. It seems unlikely to me. The party is not united: it is less united than ever. The Right do not appear to be in the mood to forgive Sunak's betrayal of Johnson or trust a Hunt or Mordaunt-esque candidate. The Right think they can win with the membership.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Driver said:

    ping said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking - sex abuse enquiry recommends making failure to report suspicions a criminal offence

    And then nobody sane is going to want to work with children.

    Not workable in practice.
    Surely "having suspicions" is impossible to prove beyond reasonable doubt without an admission?
    It's similar to the money launder reporting responsibility of finance workers.

    File a report, it gets ignored/goes into the ether of some database. but this would be much more serious
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Eabhal said:

    Scary graphic of the effect of flooding on Kherson if the dam is blown by the Russians...

    https://twitter.com/UkraineNewsLive/status/1583060165070581760

    Doesn't blowing up the dam permanently turn off the taps for Crimea?
    It is the ultimate scorched earth policy, for sure.

    But if they are conceding Crimea is gone too....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
    Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
    I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
    Ladbrokes explicitly says "next permanent PM" - so check the small print!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking - sex abuse enquiry recommends making failure to report suspicions a criminal offence

    How does that work then? Strikes me that it would be very bad law.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking - sex abuse enquiry recommends making failure to report suspicions a criminal offence

    How does that work then? Strikes me that it would be very bad law.
    No detail yet - the report was only released at midday
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Today would be good... :smile:
    Informed speculation - timetable to be announced later, maybe a short period where she gets the financial statement done, then steps down for a successor appointed by MPs (no member vote).
    There is no agreed replacement, so there has to be some sort of leadership contests. The Conservative Party constitution requires a member vote. So, you have to have a process by which MPs pick someone and everyone else agrees not to go to the membership. This is not going to happen.
    It may not be likely, but it's entirely possible it happens. All it requires is a that there is an informal agreement that the second place finisher decides to quit the contest prior to a members' vote.

    In the past twenty years, we've had that happen two times: once in opposition, when Michael Howard took over from IDS, and once in government when Ms May got the job from Mr Cameron.
    Also, the party board can AFAIK change the constitution without reference to the membership.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed

    Today would be good... :smile:
    Informed speculation - timetable to be announced later, maybe a short period where she gets the financial statement done, then steps down for a successor appointed by MPs (no member vote).
    There is no agreed replacement, so there has to be some sort of leadership contests. The Conservative Party constitution requires a member vote. So, you have to have a process by which MPs pick someone and everyone else agrees not to go to the membership. This is not going to happen.
    It may not be likely, but it's entirely possible it happens. All it requires is a that there is an informal agreement that the second place finisher decides to quit the contest prior to a members' vote.

    In the past twenty years, we've had that happen two times: once in opposition, when Michael Howard took over from IDS, and once in government when Ms May got the job from Mr Cameron.
    I was being overly forthright. You're right: it is possible. It seems unlikely to me. The party is not united: it is less united than ever. The Right do not appear to be in the mood to forgive Sunak's betrayal of Johnson or trust a Hunt or Mordaunt-esque candidate. The Right think they can win with the membership.
    Which confirms they are lacking self awareness.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    ping said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking - sex abuse enquiry recommends making failure to report suspicions a criminal offence

    And then nobody sane is going to want to work with children.

    Not workable in practice.
    Inevitable given what came out of Rotherham etc. People boasting to the enquiry teams that they had destroyed the evidence of who was making decisions.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
    Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
    I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
    Ladbrokes explicitly says "next permanent PM" - so check the small print!
    There's no such thing as a temporary PM. Even Truss will have counted as a permanent PM winner.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Irish deputy prime minister Leo Varadkar on the current turmoil in UK politics: "The political situation is unsettled at the moment. We’ve gone through periods of that in our own country as well,...

    2/ "...and when things are unsettled it’s hard to focus on all the different files that you may have to deal with at any particular time. But really internal politics within any country isn’t really something we should get involved in....

    4/ He said that following his meetings yesterday with
    @JamesCleverly @theresecoffey and @Keir_Starmer there was "a clear desire" by the UK government to come to an agreement on the Northern Ireland Protocol rather than to have a confrontation with Ireland or the European Union....

    5/ Speaking in Brussels ahead of an EPP meeting Mr Vardkar said Mr Starmer had made it clear that a future Labour government would want a closer political and security relationship with the EU, but that would NOT mean joining the single market or customs union.


    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1583060966144503808
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    Well, the morning's heavy rain has had one 'advantage': I've discovered our roof is leaking, as I suspected. I've thought it may have a leak all summer, but it's been so dry I've never been able to check. The rain came down hard this morning, and I found the leak. Not a stream of water, but more than a few drips.

    Buckets are in the loft, and someone from a roofing company came around within two hours to price the job up. Apparently they're very busy this morning. ;)
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    Ooh I had a quid on truss 2024 exit matched at 489/1.

    It’s unlikely, but not that unlikely!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Yesterday Truss said she wasn't a quitter, so resigning today would keep up her impressive track record of deft flexibility?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    edited October 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
    Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
    I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
    If Truss resigns as PM at same time as Leader with a leader election about to start there is no way Chas doesn't call Coffey unless it has been explicitly signalled by say the Cabinet or perhaps the 1922 exec that she could not command a majority. I just don't see that happening myself.

    Even if she might not be able to command a majority - who would move a vote to be sure? Labour perhaps? But that way lies madness arguably.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    ping said:

    Ooh I had a quid on truss 2024 exit matched at 470.

    It’s unlikely, but not that unlikely!

    You could just chuck a pound coin out of the window.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking - sex abuse enquiry recommends making failure to report suspicions a criminal offence

    How does that work then? Strikes me that it would be very bad law.
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking - sex abuse enquiry recommends making failure to report suspicions a criminal offence

    How does that work then? Strikes me that it would be very bad law.
    No detail yet - the report was only released at midday
    At a random guess - NFA’ing a reported abuse for “administrative”, “cultural sensitivity” etc reasons becomes a crime.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
    Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
    I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
    If Truss resigns as PM at same time as Leader with a leader election about to start there is no way Chas doesn't call Coffey unless it has been explicitly signalled by say the Cabinet or perhaps the 1922 exec that she could not command a majority. I just don't see that happening myself.

    Even if she might not be able to command a majority - who would move a vote to be sure? Labour perhaps? But that way lies madness arguably.
    The LBC speculation is that Truss sticks around to end October pending MPs sorting out a replacement
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    This seems very sensible. I think the same should apply to Wallace. Rishi is surely unpalatable to too many? Penny now in pole position?

    Understand Jeremy Hunt has told friends he is not prepared to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister and wants to remain as Chancellor. That leaves Sunak, Mordaunt and Wallace as the options.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1583061971142070272
  • Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
    Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
    I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
    Ladbrokes explicitly says "next permanent PM" - so check the small print!
    There's no such thing as a temporary PM. Even Truss will have counted as a permanent PM winner.
    Truss was a permanent PM, even if not for long.

    There is such a thing if they announce such a thing. There is nothing preventing it.

    If they announce that Coffey is Acting PM until the new PM is chosen, then Coffey would be Acting PM.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Weather or not you want it report.

    Air quality in Seattle is now slightly improved, now AQ1=230 = very unhealthy. So bad it actually woke me up in middle of night (why I'm up working AND typing here).

    Wind's are shifting, and sloooooowly begining to bring in clean(er) air from North Pacific, with rain (which we need badly) forecast for Friday into next week.

    This is the second time in four or five years we've had MAJOR problem with forest fire smoke. NOT something that was the norm for my first quarter century in the great Pacific Northwest.

    Anyone who tries to tell you that global warming isn't real, is blowing smoke up your ass.

    Only idiots deny climate change. The issue is complicated by weather patterns though. Not every extreme weather event occurs because of climate change, although many are being made worse, as noted in the UK this summer. I would note that the UK heat wave occurred at the absolute optimum time for maximum heat from that weather pattern (shortest nights of the year, maximal solar heating). Other events are blamed on climate change but are more related to other man-made issues - see the Australian bush fires. Decades of clearing of combustables was recently stopped for pseudo environmental reasons, which then made the eventual burning (which is part of the natural cycle of the Australian bush) far, far worse.
    Its also true that while the cost of natural disasters goes up, the effects on human lives goes down (see Bjorn Lomberg for this).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    edited October 2022

    Well, the morning's heavy rain has had one 'advantage': I've discovered our roof is leaking, as I suspected. I've thought it may have a leak all summer, but it's been so dry I've never been able to check. The rain came down hard this morning, and I found the leak. Not a stream of water, but more than a few drips.

    Buckets are in the loft, and someone from a roofing company came around within two hours to price the job up. Apparently they're very busy this morning. ;)

    Good God, how did you find a roofing company to turn up to a quote for a job. Round our way you might as well ask for a pot of gold to be left on your doorstep.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    Farage is looking for partners to set up a new party. Is that the next step for the rightward journey of Liz Truss?

    She could help set up NewKip. Her ego would find solace from conspiracy theories. She would have succeeded if the globalist blob had not undermined her.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited October 2022

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
    Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
    I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
    Ladbrokes explicitly says "next permanent PM" - so check the small print!
    There's no such thing as a temporary PM. Even Truss will have counted as a permanent PM winner.
    Truss was a permanent PM, even if not for long.

    There is such a thing if they announce such a thing. There is nothing preventing it.

    If they announce that Coffey is Acting PM until the new PM is chosen, then Coffey would be Acting PM.
    Well it depends whether or not Coffey heads to the palace. If she doesn't then Truss stays on as PM even if Coffey is "acting" PM; she's not in reality.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
    Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
    I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
    Ladbrokes explicitly says "next permanent PM" - so check the small print!
    There's no such thing as a temporary PM. Even Truss will have counted as a permanent PM winner.
    Truss was a permanent PM, even if not for long.

    There is such a thing if they announce such a thing. There is nothing preventing it.

    If they announce that Coffey is Acting PM until the new PM is chosen, then Coffey would be Acting PM.
    Well it depends whether or not Coffey heads to the palace. If she doesn't then Truss stays on as PM even if Coffey is "acting" PM; she's not in reality.
    She could head to the Palace to be appointed Acting PM. There's nothing stopping that from happening.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
    Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
    I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
    If Truss resigns as PM at same time as Leader with a leader election about to start there is no way Chas doesn't call Coffey unless it has been explicitly signalled by say the Cabinet or perhaps the 1922 exec that she could not command a majority. I just don't see that happening myself.

    Even if she might not be able to command a majority - who would move a vote to be sure? Labour perhaps? But that way lies madness arguably.
    Not sure there is a need for him to be involved if there is a planned process to appoint another permenat PM.

    When BJ was off with covid, I don't think Dominic Rabb had any need to seek HMQ permission or blessing
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Thread:

    I'm told Liz Truss called for the meeting with Graham Brady to discuss imminent changes to 'the rules'.

    A VONC is coming


    https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1583053963867623430

    "Back me - or sack me!"

    "Bugger....."
    Take her in the back, in the sack.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking - sex abuse enquiry recommends making failure to report suspicions a criminal offence

    How does that work then? Strikes me that it would be very bad law.
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking - sex abuse enquiry recommends making failure to report suspicions a criminal offence

    How does that work then? Strikes me that it would be very bad law.
    No detail yet - the report was only released at midday
    At a random guess - NFA’ing a reported abuse for “administrative”, “cultural sensitivity” etc reasons becomes a crime.
    Indeed, including "boss told me to bin it cos boss is a chum/reported perp is a councillor/etc."

    What I'm not clear about is how you deal with record keeping if the boss will just destroy the evidence. Keep a copy off site to CYA? But that willbe a breach of corporate and statute law on personal data.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited October 2022
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
    Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
    I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
    If Truss resigns as PM at same time as Leader with a leader election about to start there is no way Chas doesn't call Coffey unless it has been explicitly signalled by say the Cabinet or perhaps the 1922 exec that she could not command a majority. I just don't see that happening myself.

    Even if she might not be able to command a majority - who would move a vote to be sure? Labour perhaps? But that way lies madness arguably.
    The LBC speculation is that Truss sticks around to end October pending MPs sorting out a replacement
    I get the impression, and not in a good way for my betting purposes that this 'specualtion' has all the hallmarks of "quietly confident" on an election night.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa Coffey arrived by the back door

    Temp PM ?

    She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
    Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.

    God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
    He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
    Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
    I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
    Ladbrokes explicitly says "next permanent PM" - so check the small print!
    There's no such thing as a temporary PM. Even Truss will have counted as a permanent PM winner.
    Truss was a permanent PM, even if not for long.

    There is such a thing if they announce such a thing. There is nothing preventing it.

    If they announce that Coffey is Acting PM until the new PM is chosen, then Coffey would be Acting PM.
    Well it depends whether or not Coffey heads to the palace. If she doesn't then Truss stays on as PM even if Coffey is "acting" PM; she's not in reality.
    She could head to the Palace to be appointed Acting PM. There's nothing stopping that from happening.
    If she's appointed by the King then she's PM, full stop.
This discussion has been closed.