"Just for the record, I've been in the same room as Suella Braverman and she is a thundering volcanic halfwit. She shouldn't be left alone near a toaster by herself never mind the home office."
She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.
God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
Ladbrokes explicitly says "next permanent PM" - so check the small print!
There's no such thing as a temporary PM. Even Truss will have counted as a permanent PM winner.
Truss was a permanent PM, even if not for long.
There is such a thing if they announce such a thing. There is nothing preventing it.
If they announce that Coffey is Acting PM until the new PM is chosen, then Coffey would be Acting PM.
Well it depends whether or not Coffey heads to the palace. If she doesn't then Truss stays on as PM even if Coffey is "acting" PM; she's not in reality.
She could head to the Palace to be appointed Acting PM. There's nothing stopping that from happening.
The party is behaving like it has a supply teacher in charge when we have a 'permanent' PM.
Farage is looking for partners to set up a new party. Is that the next step for the rightward journey of Liz Truss?
She could help set up NewKip. Her ego would find solace from conspiracy theories. She would have succeeded if the globalist blob had not undermined her.
Farage seems to want Braverman to join his latest ego trip.
The idea that there's no such thing in the UK as a 'caretaker' government is a myth, there is, the Cabinet Manual provides explicit guidance for some of the circumstances where a caretaker government may arise.
When Boris resigned, his government became a caretaker government at that point, that was agreed by the Cabinet.
If Liz went and advised Charles to appoint Coffey as caretaker Prime Minister until her successor could be chosen then he would do that but Coffey would not necessarily be permanent PM.
She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.
God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
Ladbrokes explicitly says "next permanent PM" - so check the small print!
There's no such thing as a temporary PM. Even Truss will have counted as a permanent PM winner.
Truss was a permanent PM, even if not for long.
There is such a thing if they announce such a thing. There is nothing preventing it.
If they announce that Coffey is Acting PM until the new PM is chosen, then Coffey would be Acting PM.
Well it depends whether or not Coffey heads to the palace. If she doesn't then Truss stays on as PM even if Coffey is "acting" PM; she's not in reality.
She could head to the Palace to be appointed Acting PM. There's nothing stopping that from happening.
She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.
God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
If Truss resigns as PM at same time as Leader with a leader election about to start there is no way Chas doesn't call Coffey unless it has been explicitly signalled by say the Cabinet or perhaps the 1922 exec that she could not command a majority. I just don't see that happening myself.
Even if she might not be able to command a majority - who would move a vote to be sure? Labour perhaps? But that way lies madness arguably.
Not sure there is a need for him to be involved if there is a planned process to appoint another permenat PM.
When BJ was off with covid, I don't think Dominic Rabb had any need to seek HMQ permission or blessing
BJ was still PM then though. Truss stepping down would be different. Charles would have to appoint the new PM, even if only temporary.
Farage is looking for partners to set up a new party. Is that the next step for the rightward journey of Liz Truss?
She could help set up NewKip. Her ego would find solace from conspiracy theories. She would have succeeded if the globalist blob had not undermined her.
A new Farage vehicle might very quickly have a couple dozen MPs from defections and be very competitive in the red wall and down the East coast. What happens in the seats UKIP then BXP were getting teen % if the Tory vote collapses? One to watch
Breaking - sex abuse enquiry recommends making failure to report suspicions a criminal offence
And then nobody sane is going to want to work with children.
Not workable in practice.
How do you define 'suspicions?' It is your legal duty at this moment to report any concerns anyway. And if you have suspicions but can't prove them and keep quiet, how does anyone ever prove you had them? So why bother criminalising an offence you can't prove?
This tells me the person in charge of the enquiry is a complete fool.
Which, given it's a government enquiry, is probably par for the course.
She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.
God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
Ladbrokes explicitly says "next permanent PM" - so check the small print!
There's no such thing as a temporary PM. Even Truss will have counted as a permanent PM winner.
Truss was a permanent PM, even if not for long.
There is such a thing if they announce such a thing. There is nothing preventing it.
If they announce that Coffey is Acting PM until the new PM is chosen, then Coffey would be Acting PM.
Well it depends whether or not Coffey heads to the palace. If she doesn't then Truss stays on as PM even if Coffey is "acting" PM; she's not in reality.
She could head to the Palace to be appointed Acting PM. There's nothing stopping that from happening.
If she goes to the palace she's the PM.
Unless she goes to the Palace to be appointed explicitly as Caretaker PM.
Just because its never happened before, doesn't mean it can't happen. Plenty of things have never happened before but are possible.
She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.
God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
If Truss resigns as PM at same time as Leader with a leader election about to start there is no way Chas doesn't call Coffey unless it has been explicitly signalled by say the Cabinet or perhaps the 1922 exec that she could not command a majority. I just don't see that happening myself.
Even if she might not be able to command a majority - who would move a vote to be sure? Labour perhaps? But that way lies madness arguably.
The LBC speculation is that Truss sticks around to end October pending MPs sorting out a replacement
I get the impression, and not in a good way for my betting purposes that this 'specualtion' has all the hallmarks of "quietly confident" on an election night.
Possibly, although I wouldn't expect very many people to know - unless perhaps it was all thrashed out between the cabinet at last night's Carlton Club do?
Well, the morning's heavy rain has had one 'advantage': I've discovered our roof is leaking, as I suspected. I've thought it may have a leak all summer, but it's been so dry I've never been able to check. The rain came down hard this morning, and I found the leak. Not a stream of water, but more than a few drips.
Buckets are in the loft, and someone from a roofing company came around within two hours to price the job up. Apparently they're very busy this morning.
Good God, how did you find a roofing company to turn up to a quote for a job. Round our way you might as well ask for a pot of gold to be left on your doorstep.
A mate recommended one a few years back, though I've never used them. I phoned them up; they said they were in Ely. They were here within a couple of hours. They'll hopefully be able to do the job next month, before winter. Quite impressed; the did not appear to be a b/s'er. As we're a townhouse we'll need scaffolding, but that's expected.
Incidentally, my dad taught me a little tip when I was a kid: when booking a tradesman, take a look at the inside of their van. If it is neat and tidy, they will probably do a good job and leave your place tidy. If the cab is stuffed with newspapers, chip papers and empty cans of pop, don't hire them. I've found it to be quite accurate so far.
She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.
God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
Ladbrokes explicitly says "next permanent PM" - so check the small print!
There's no such thing as a temporary PM. Even Truss will have counted as a permanent PM winner.
Truss was a permanent PM, even if not for long.
There is such a thing if they announce such a thing. There is nothing preventing it.
If they announce that Coffey is Acting PM until the new PM is chosen, then Coffey would be Acting PM.
Well it depends whether or not Coffey heads to the palace. If she doesn't then Truss stays on as PM even if Coffey is "acting" PM; she's not in reality.
She could head to the Palace to be appointed Acting PM. There's nothing stopping that from happening.
If she's appointed by the King then she's PM, full stop.
Can you imagine the Trident submarine commanders getting another set of end-of-the-world orders? They will be wondering what on Earth is going on up there.
She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.
God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
Ladbrokes explicitly says "next permanent PM" - so check the small print!
There's no such thing as a temporary PM. Even Truss will have counted as a permanent PM winner.
Truss was a permanent PM, even if not for long.
There is such a thing if they announce such a thing. There is nothing preventing it.
If they announce that Coffey is Acting PM until the new PM is chosen, then Coffey would be Acting PM.
Well it depends whether or not Coffey heads to the palace. If she doesn't then Truss stays on as PM even if Coffey is "acting" PM; she's not in reality.
She could head to the Palace to be appointed Acting PM. There's nothing stopping that from happening.
If she goes to the palace she's the PM.
Yes, agreed. The alternative is she chairs the cabinet and manages security while Truss remains the nominal PM, which is what happened in 1957.
Farage is looking for partners to set up a new party. Is that the next step for the rightward journey of Liz Truss?
She could help set up NewKip. Her ego would find solace from conspiracy theories. She would have succeeded if the globalist blob had not undermined her.
I'm not convinced the Farage mob is serious enough to require subverting in the same way as the Tories. But it would be amusing.
Kevin Schofield @KevinASchofield · 2m Tory MP tells HuffPost UK: "It’s definitely over. The 1922 Committee are just co-ordinating optics to help soften the blow for the prime minister."
So whilst we wait, could I ask the brains here some questions about the Conservative Party rules re: their leader?
I know prior to 1997 it was MP ballots only (and prior to... 1965? it was the men in grey suits) but why did Hague think it a good idea to change it to add the membership? And why did he (if I understand correctly) later regret this?
Air quality in Seattle is now slightly improved, now AQ1=230 = very unhealthy. So bad it actually woke me up in middle of night (why I'm up working AND typing here).
Wind's are shifting, and sloooooowly begining to bring in clean(er) air from North Pacific, with rain (which we need badly) forecast for Friday into next week.
This is the second time in four or five years we've had MAJOR problem with forest fire smoke. NOT something that was the norm for my first quarter century in the great Pacific Northwest.
Anyone who tries to tell you that global warming isn't real, is blowing smoke up your ass.
Only idiots deny climate change. The issue is complicated by weather patterns though. Not every extreme weather event occurs because of climate change, although many are being made worse, as noted in the UK this summer. I would note that the UK heat wave occurred at the absolute optimum time for maximum heat from that weather pattern (shortest nights of the year, maximal solar heating). Other events are blamed on climate change but are more related to other man-made issues - see the Australian bush fires. Decades of clearing of combustables was recently stopped for pseudo environmental reasons, which then made the eventual burning (which is part of the natural cycle of the Australian bush) far, far worse. Its also true that while the cost of natural disasters goes up, the effects on human lives goes down (see Bjorn Lomberg for this).
In case of PNW fire fires, there's plenty of evidence of linkage to major shift in climatic pattern out here.
As for your final point, not sure the hundreds of dead (bodies still being recovered I believe) in Southwest Florida would concur.
Of course THIS situation was related to gross over-development of the Everglades & surrounding coastal wetlands & barrier islands, aided and abetted by lack of environmental regulation, and widespread circumvention of whatever regs they are, in the name of fun and profit.
Including by public politicos, power-brokers and assorted land-pirates in Lee County, where commissioners delayed mandatory evacuation orders with fatal consequences for their constituents.
She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.
God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
Ladbrokes explicitly says "next permanent PM" - so check the small print!
There's no such thing as a temporary PM. Even Truss will have counted as a permanent PM winner.
Truss was a permanent PM, even if not for long.
There is such a thing if they announce such a thing. There is nothing preventing it.
If they announce that Coffey is Acting PM until the new PM is chosen, then Coffey would be Acting PM.
Well it depends whether or not Coffey heads to the palace. If she doesn't then Truss stays on as PM even if Coffey is "acting" PM; she's not in reality.
She could head to the Palace to be appointed Acting PM. There's nothing stopping that from happening.
If she goes to the palace she's the PM.
Unless she goes to the Palace to be appointed explicitly as Caretaker PM.
Just because its never happened before, doesn't mean it can't happen. Plenty of things have never happened before but are possible.
The problem is that a PM doesn't command the confidence of the House because they are PM, they are PM because they command the confidence of the House. Whether they're called acting PM or not, if they can't command the confidence of the House they can't be PM (not for very long anyway).
Farage is looking for partners to set up a new party. Is that the next step for the rightward journey of Liz Truss?
She could help set up NewKip. Her ego would find solace from conspiracy theories. She would have succeeded if the globalist blob had not undermined her.
Liz Truss = Kim Campbell = graffiti on the dustbin of History
Air quality in Seattle is now slightly improved, now AQ1=230 = very unhealthy. So bad it actually woke me up in middle of night (why I'm up working AND typing here).
Wind's are shifting, and sloooooowly begining to bring in clean(er) air from North Pacific, with rain (which we need badly) forecast for Friday into next week.
This is the second time in four or five years we've had MAJOR problem with forest fire smoke. NOT something that was the norm for my first quarter century in the great Pacific Northwest.
Anyone who tries to tell you that global warming isn't real, is blowing smoke up your ass.
Always want the reports, SSI. I was going to say nothing is too arcane for this site. That might not be true - but this is nowhere near the limit of arcanery. Keep it coming!
This seems very sensible. I think the same should apply to Wallace. Rishi is surely unpalatable to too many? Penny now in pole position?
Understand Jeremy Hunt has told friends he is not prepared to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister and wants to remain as Chancellor. That leaves Sunak, Mordaunt and Wallace as the options. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1583061971142070272
It also means those three have to keep Hunt as Chancellor? Not certain. If it is Mordaunt, then Rishi is likely to be slotted into his old job. Hunt as Foreign Secretary if so? If Rishi, can he let Hunt have a free hand - or will he be a backseat driver?
Farage is looking for partners to set up a new party. Is that the next step for the rightward journey of Liz Truss?
She could help set up NewKip. Her ego would find solace from conspiracy theories. She would have succeeded if the globalist blob had not undermined her.
A new Farage vehicle might very quickly have a couple dozen MPs from defections and be very competitive in the red wall and down the East coast. What happens in the seats UKIP then BXP were getting teen % if the Tory vote collapses? One to watch
Starting to think this could actually happen - though as always with ideologically-led insurgent parties on the right (BNP, RefUk, UKIP, BXP, Referendum, NF - not all the same, of course, but on a similar spectrum of support), the novelty wears off for both politicians and voters when they actually achieve office and it turns out to be difficult, dull and the elected officials tend to have little aptitude or motivation to engage with the actual business of governing. And as ever, Farage is in it for the grift.
In the long run, this would probably help the Tories by flushing out their lunatic fringe while they recover as a sensible, competent party of the centre-right.
Air quality in Seattle is now slightly improved, now AQ1=230 = very unhealthy. So bad it actually woke me up in middle of night (why I'm up working AND typing here).
Wind's are shifting, and sloooooowly begining to bring in clean(er) air from North Pacific, with rain (which we need badly) forecast for Friday into next week.
This is the second time in four or five years we've had MAJOR problem with forest fire smoke. NOT something that was the norm for my first quarter century in the great Pacific Northwest.
Anyone who tries to tell you that global warming isn't real, is blowing smoke up your ass.
Always want the reports, SSI. I was going to say nothing is too arcane for this site. That might not be true - but this is nowhere near the limit of arcanery. Keep it coming!
This is precisely the moment I would like Steve Baker to put himself forward as unity candidate.
He came across OK on Peston - even willing to contemplate a Sunak succession. He's clearly trying to distance himself from his nutjob past.
It has been apparent for some time that Steve Baker is reinventing himself as a serious politician. Heaven knows there is a gap in the market.
Baker even though head of the ERG seems quite civilized and I’m sure his apology to Ireland and the EU was very welcome . The problem is though his support for Braverman !
This seems very sensible. I think the same should apply to Wallace. Rishi is surely unpalatable to too many? Penny now in pole position?
Understand Jeremy Hunt has told friends he is not prepared to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister and wants to remain as Chancellor. That leaves Sunak, Mordaunt and Wallace as the options. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1583061971142070272
It also means those three have to keep Hunt as Chancellor? Not certain. If it is Mordaunt, then Rishi is likely to be slotted into his old job. Hunt as Foreign Secretary if so? If Rishi, can he let Hunt have a free hand - or will he be a backseat driver?
Your assuming Rishi definitely comes back if Mordaunt is PM...
It's going to be funny when there's barely a bounce for whoever comes next. The public's had it with the Tories.
Correct, but remember that the game here is to rally around the core vote for the next GE.
If the Tories play it right again under the right leader it should get them back to 30%+ share
Is there someone who can lead the Conservatives and paper over the cracks? It's a big ask. All the leading candidates have sizeable constituencies against them. For example, Hunt, Sunak and Mourdant are not unity candidates. You do not want a rookie, sorry Kemi. So who is there? Hague is your best bet, with someone stepping aside for him to get him back in the HoC.
Farage is looking for partners to set up a new party. Is that the next step for the rightward journey of Liz Truss?
She could help set up NewKip. Her ego would find solace from conspiracy theories. She would have succeeded if the globalist blob had not undermined her.
A new Farage vehicle might very quickly have a couple dozen MPs from defections and be very competitive in the red wall and down the East coast. What happens in the seats UKIP then BXP were getting teen % if the Tory vote collapses? One to watch
Starting to think this could actually happen - though as always with ideologically-led insurgent parties on the right (BNP, RefUk, UKIP, BXP, Referendum, NF - not all the same, of course, but on a similar spectrum of support), the novelty wears off for both politicians and voters when they actually achieve office and it turns out to be difficult, dull and the elected officials tend to have little aptitude or motivation to engage with the actual business of governing. And as ever, Farage is in it for the grift.
In the long run, this would probably help the Tories by flushing out their lunatic fringe while they recover as a sensible, competent party of the centre-right.
There is clearly a long term shift in the red wall underway and if the Tories disintegrate somebody will step in to take advantage. In the leafy south etc, a different new reality will emerge. And in London, does the like of Aspire start to reach and branch outward?
This seems very sensible. I think the same should apply to Wallace. Rishi is surely unpalatable to too many? Penny now in pole position?
Understand Jeremy Hunt has told friends he is not prepared to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister and wants to remain as Chancellor. That leaves Sunak, Mordaunt and Wallace as the options. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1583061971142070272
It also means those three have to keep Hunt as Chancellor? Not certain. If it is Mordaunt, then Rishi is likely to be slotted into his old job. Hunt as Foreign Secretary if so? If Rishi, can he let Hunt have a free hand - or will he be a backseat driver?
Your assuming Rishi definitely comes back if Mordaunt is PM...
I think they would have to be back together at the top. Unless Rishi really is giving up politics.
It's going to be funny when there's barely a bounce for whoever comes next. The public's had it with the Tories.
Correct, but remember that the game here is to rally around the core vote for the next GE.
If the Tories play it right again under the right leader it should get them back to 30%+ share
What would their platform be?
What are they going to tell the public and what will they spend the next one or two terms pondering and regrouping around?
They have tried the far out extreme small state, low taxes route and look what happened; they tried the austerity, real-term spending cuts. Who in the Party has a majority to do anything and who will get purged?
I just can't see an obvious direction for the Cons in the months and years ahead.
Air quality in Seattle is now slightly improved, now AQ1=230 = very unhealthy. So bad it actually woke me up in middle of night (why I'm up working AND typing here).
Wind's are shifting, and sloooooowly begining to bring in clean(er) air from North Pacific, with rain (which we need badly) forecast for Friday into next week.
This is the second time in four or five years we've had MAJOR problem with forest fire smoke. NOT something that was the norm for my first quarter century in the great Pacific Northwest.
Anyone who tries to tell you that global warming isn't real, is blowing smoke up your ass.
Only idiots deny climate change. The issue is complicated by weather patterns though. Not every extreme weather event occurs because of climate change, although many are being made worse, as noted in the UK this summer. I would note that the UK heat wave occurred at the absolute optimum time for maximum heat from that weather pattern (shortest nights of the year, maximal solar heating). Other events are blamed on climate change but are more related to other man-made issues - see the Australian bush fires. Decades of clearing of combustables was recently stopped for pseudo environmental reasons, which then made the eventual burning (which is part of the natural cycle of the Australian bush) far, far worse. Its also true that while the cost of natural disasters goes up, the effects on human lives goes down (see Bjorn Lomberg for this).
In case of PNW fire fires, there's plenty of evidence of linkage to major shift in climatic pattern out here.
As for your final point, not sure the hundreds of dead (bodies still being recovered I believe) in Southwest Florida would concur.
Of course THIS situation was related to gross over-development of the Everglades & surrounding coastal wetlands & barrier islands, aided and abetted by lack of environmental regulation, and widespread circumvention of whatever regs they are, in the name of fun and profit.
Including by public politicos, power-brokers and assorted land-pirates in Lee County, where commissioners delayed mandatory evacuation orders with fatal consequences for their constituents.
The point about human lives is across the whole planet. Of course people still die in extreme events and that is always sad. But overall its way better now that in was 100 years ago, for instance, despite what some claim.
So whilst we wait, could I ask the brains here some questions about the Conservative Party rules re: their leader?
I know prior to 1997 it was MP ballots only (and prior to... 1965? it was the men in grey suits) but why did Hague think it a good idea to change it to add the membership? And why did he (if I understand correctly) later regret this?
I could be wrong and can't be bothered to check but there is a dim memory that Hague was not the first or last to alter the rules.
Air quality in Seattle is now slightly improved, now AQ1=230 = very unhealthy. So bad it actually woke me up in middle of night (why I'm up working AND typing here).
Wind's are shifting, and sloooooowly begining to bring in clean(er) air from North Pacific, with rain (which we need badly) forecast for Friday into next week.
This is the second time in four or five years we've had MAJOR problem with forest fire smoke. NOT something that was the norm for my first quarter century in the great Pacific Northwest.
Anyone who tries to tell you that global warming isn't real, is blowing smoke up your ass.
Keep the reports coming SSI! They’re now part of the rich, often eccentric, tapestry of PB and would be missed!
She is dPM. She would also be Truss’ preferred choice. Has the advantage of not being a runner or rider.
Yep. Most likely by far to be caretaker PM if Truss walks from both leader and PM at same time.
God help Charles if the MPs signal they want May as caretaker and Coffey and Truss say 'no' it should be the deputy PM.
He can take soundings can't he? If it's clear Coffey doesn't have support it could be someone else.
Truss shouldn't put Charles in that position.
I think Coffey would have the confidence of the majority of the Commons. I've watched the crown, Eden just tells Liz that McMillan will be the next PM. Coffey is deputy PM so - well this is the logic for a 70-1 bet not an evens shot !
Ladbrokes explicitly says "next permanent PM" - so check the small print!
If the market is "next permanent PM", they shouldn't have paid out on Truss!
BREAKING: Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tells MPs that on September 29 an RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint spy plane was being shadowed by two Russian Su-27s in international airspace when one of the Su-27s "released a missle in the vicinity of the Rivet Joint".....
....Ben Wallace says "we don't consider this a deliberate escalation by the Russians" but adds it is "a reminder of quite how dangerous things can be when you choose to use fighters in the way the Russians have done"
One other thing I’ve just heard being discussed is the fact that you don’t have to be Conservative leader to be PM. Obvs deeply unlikely they do this but it’s been done- eg when Churchill became PM and Chamberlain stayed as Conservative leader for a few months. https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1583066855014481920
Air quality in Seattle is now slightly improved, now AQ1=230 = very unhealthy. So bad it actually woke me up in middle of night (why I'm up working AND typing here).
Wind's are shifting, and sloooooowly begining to bring in clean(er) air from North Pacific, with rain (which we need badly) forecast for Friday into next week.
This is the second time in four or five years we've had MAJOR problem with forest fire smoke. NOT something that was the norm for my first quarter century in the great Pacific Northwest.
Anyone who tries to tell you that global warming isn't real, is blowing smoke up your ass.
Always want the reports, SSI. I was going to say nothing is too arcane for this site. That might not be true - but this is nowhere near the limit of arcanery. Keep it coming!
It's going to be funny when there's barely a bounce for whoever comes next. The public's had it with the Tories.
Correct, but remember that the game here is to rally around the core vote for the next GE.
If the Tories play it right again under the right leader it should get them back to 30%+ share
Is there someone who can lead the Conservatives and paper over the cracks? It's a big ask. All the leading candidates have sizeable constituencies against them. For example, Hunt, Sunak and Mourdant are not unity candidates. You do not want a rookie, sorry Kemi. So who is there? Hague is your best bet, with someone stepping aside for him to get him back in the HoC.
You've got to bear in mind, Jonathan, there's a solid chunk of the country (well over 30%) who are quite right wing and don't like the cut of Labour’s jib very much.
When a GE is in the offing they have a choice to make and it may well be on a 'our son of a bitch' basis.
It's going to be funny when there's barely a bounce for whoever comes next. The public's had it with the Tories.
Correct, but remember that the game here is to rally around the core vote for the next GE.
If the Tories play it right again under the right leader it should get them back to 30%+ share
Is there someone who can lead the Conservatives and paper over the cracks? It's a big ask. All the leading candidates have sizeable constituencies against them. For example, Hunt, Sunak and Mourdant are not unity candidates. You do not want a rookie, sorry Kemi. So who is there? Hague is your best bet, with someone stepping aside for him to get him back in the HoC.
It won't be Hague. They could not get him back into the Commons fast enough. We could not have a couple of months of PMQs with no PM. There is Theresa May as the thread header posits, and I am not sure there are all that many people against Hunt or Sunak and so on.
One other thing I’ve just heard being discussed is the fact that you don’t have to be Conservative leader to be PM. Obvs deeply unlikely they do this but it’s been done- eg when Churchill became PM and Chamberlain stayed as Conservative leader for a few months. https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1583066855014481920
I think this will take a while. They won't ask the King to do anything too unusual.
Farage is looking for partners to set up a new party. Is that the next step for the rightward journey of Liz Truss?
She could help set up NewKip. Her ego would find solace from conspiracy theories. She would have succeeded if the globalist blob had not undermined her.
A new Farage vehicle might very quickly have a couple dozen MPs from defections and be very competitive in the red wall and down the East coast. What happens in the seats UKIP then BXP were getting teen % if the Tory vote collapses? One to watch
The problem Farage has is that - while he's personally popular with a significant minority of voters - many people who've worked with him have not been particularly enamored of the experience.
So whilst we wait, could I ask the brains here some questions about the Conservative Party rules re: their leader?
I know prior to 1997 it was MP ballots only (and prior to... 1965? it was the men in grey suits) but why did Hague think it a good idea to change it to add the membership? And why did he (if I understand correctly) later regret this?
I could be wrong and can't be bothered to check but there is a dim memory that Hague was not the first or last to alter the rules.
Yes but the Hague changes were the big ones. And he changed the rules for the same reason everyone does: personal advantage. He knew he had more support in the party (with whom he was ideologically similar) than he did amongst MPs (many of whom he was younger than, and some of whom felt it should be their turn rather than his).
It was an unexploded bomb for 20 years. The Tories were lucky that this situation hadn't arisen earlier. You can't have a leader who doesn't have the backing of the MPs who sit behind him. It was a shambles for Corbyn too, but he could do it from opposition.
One other thing I’ve just heard being discussed is the fact that you don’t have to be Conservative leader to be PM. Obvs deeply unlikely they do this but it’s been done- eg when Churchill became PM and Chamberlain stayed as Conservative leader for a few months. https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1583066855014481920
It's going to be funny when there's barely a bounce for whoever comes next. The public's had it with the Tories.
Correct, but remember that the game here is to rally around the core vote for the next GE.
If the Tories play it right again under the right leader it should get them back to 30%+ share
Is there someone who can lead the Conservatives and paper over the cracks? It's a big ask. All the leading candidates have sizeable constituencies against them. For example, Hunt, Sunak and Mourdant are not unity candidates. You do not want a rookie, sorry Kemi. So who is there? Hague is your best bet, with someone stepping aside for him to get him back in the HoC.
You've got to bear in mind, Jonathan, there's a solid chunk of the country (well over 30%) who are quite right wing and don't like the cut of Labour’s jib very much.
When a GE is in the offing they have a choice to make and it may well be on a 'our son of a bitch' basis.
Sure, there is a core vote for each party. The point is that whilst many will vote for the Tories even if they do destroy the economy and humiliate the country, changing the leader does not make the Tory party fit to govern.
It is bitterly divided. Two years of stop start chaos is not going to help you. There is no leader out there who can heal the wounds, you are looking for someone who can paper over them.
One pleasing thing about the current chaos is that ignorant tv presenters haven’t had much opportunity to discuss the TUC and all its “acronyms”, as they inevitably do usually. If they were acronyms, surely they’d call it the tuck shop?
BREAKING: Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tells MPs that on September 29 an RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint spy plane was being shadowed by two Russian Su-27s in international airspace when one of the Su-27s "released a missle in the vicinity of the Rivet Joint".....
....Ben Wallace says "we don't consider this a deliberate escalation by the Russians" but adds it is "a reminder of quite how dangerous things can be when you choose to use fighters in the way the Russians have done"
The 29 Sep event can't have been why Wallace rushed to Washington at short notice earlier this week.
(Edit: sorry, clicked on "Off-topic" by accident.)
yes i imagine thats the cover story or something to seemingly explain it - I imagine the real reason was a lot more serious - Not sure why we are in this state of high risk of nuclear war for the sake of a slavic border dispute
LBC speculating a timetable for her departure is being agreed
Today would be good...
Informed speculation - timetable to be announced later, maybe a short period where she gets the financial statement done, then steps down for a successor appointed by MPs (no member vote).
There is no agreed replacement, so there has to be some sort of leadership contests. The Conservative Party constitution requires a member vote. So, you have to have a process by which MPs pick someone and everyone else agrees not to go to the membership. This is not going to happen.
It may not be likely, but it's entirely possible it happens. All it requires is a that there is an informal agreement that the second place finisher decides to quit the contest prior to a members' vote.
In the past twenty years, we've had that happen two times: once in opposition, when Michael Howard took over from IDS, and once in government when Ms May got the job from Mr Cameron.
Also, the party board can AFAIK change the constitution without reference to the membership.
That would save a lot of problems. Just mirroring Labour's rule of "in government, MPs decide" would help with the immediate crisis.
It's going to be funny when there's barely a bounce for whoever comes next. The public's had it with the Tories.
Correct, but remember that the game here is to rally around the core vote for the next GE.
If the Tories play it right again under the right leader it should get them back to 30%+ share
Is there someone who can lead the Conservatives and paper over the cracks? It's a big ask. All the leading candidates have sizeable constituencies against them. For example, Hunt, Sunak and Mourdant are not unity candidates. You do not want a rookie, sorry Kemi. So who is there? Hague is your best bet, with someone stepping aside for him to get him back in the HoC.
It won't be Hague. They could not get him back into the Commons fast enough. We could not have a couple of months of PMQs with no PM. There is Theresa May as the thread header posits, and I am not sure there are all that many people against Hunt or Sunak and so on.
I quite like Mike's idea. May potentially gives them a little time and space. Coffey would be awful - generally, but added to that she may be in trouble for roughing up MPs. Truss could be in place for a few weeks, but that'd mean a very rushed and messy replacement.
I don't imagine that Brady has managed to find an agreed proper replacement.
The absence of electoral defeat is the missing element. No local elections for seven months and no by-elections looming. The hard truth of the ballot box is normally the only thing that concentrates political minds.
BREAKING: Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tells MPs that on September 29 an RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint spy plane was being shadowed by two Russian Su-27s in international airspace when one of the Su-27s "released a missle in the vicinity of the Rivet Joint".....
....Ben Wallace says "we don't consider this a deliberate escalation by the Russians" but adds it is "a reminder of quite how dangerous things can be when you choose to use fighters in the way the Russians have done"
The 29 Sep event can't have been why Wallace rushed to Washington at short notice earlier this week.
(Edit: sorry, clicked on "Off-topic" by accident.)
yes i imagine thats the cover story or something to seemingly explain it - I imagine the real reason was a lot more serious - Not sure why we are in this state of high risk of nuclear war for the sake of a slavic border dispute
That big NATO exercise on response to a nuclear threat going on this past week might have raised some issues that needed addressing?
The absence of electoral defeat is the missing element. No local elections for seven months and no by-elections looming. The hard truth of the ballot box is normally the only thing that concentrates political minds.
BREAKING: Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tells MPs that on September 29 an RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint spy plane was being shadowed by two Russian Su-27s in international airspace when one of the Su-27s "released a missle in the vicinity of the Rivet Joint".....
....Ben Wallace says "we don't consider this a deliberate escalation by the Russians" but adds it is "a reminder of quite how dangerous things can be when you choose to use fighters in the way the Russians have done"
The 29 Sep event can't have been why Wallace rushed to Washington at short notice earlier this week.
(Edit: sorry, clicked on "Off-topic" by accident.)
yes i imagine thats the cover story or something to seemingly explain it - I imagine the real reason was a lot more serious - Not sure why we are in this state of high risk of nuclear war for the sake of a slavic border dispute
I am sure that's what 1930's State_go_away types said about Czechoslovakia
BREAKING: Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tells MPs that on September 29 an RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint spy plane was being shadowed by two Russian Su-27s in international airspace when one of the Su-27s "released a missle in the vicinity of the Rivet Joint".....
....Ben Wallace says "we don't consider this a deliberate escalation by the Russians" but adds it is "a reminder of quite how dangerous things can be when you choose to use fighters in the way the Russians have done"
The 29 Sep event can't have been why Wallace rushed to Washington at short notice earlier this week.
(Edit: sorry, clicked on "Off-topic" by accident.)
yes i imagine thats the cover story or something to seemingly explain it - I imagine the real reason was a lot more serious - Not sure why we are in this state of high risk of nuclear war for the sake of a slavic border dispute
I am sure that's what 1930's State_go_away types said about Czechoslovakia
why this obsession to hark back to the 1930's when there is a BIG difference - ie nuclear weapons were not around then to kill every person in the UK. This is a slavic border dispute that we did not care about in 2014 but seemingly do now between two countries who have questionable governance and until 30 years ago was one country - what the hell are we doing getting so involved?
Air quality in Seattle is now slightly improved, now AQ1=230 = very unhealthy. So bad it actually woke me up in middle of night (why I'm up working AND typing here).
Wind's are shifting, and sloooooowly begining to bring in clean(er) air from North Pacific, with rain (which we need badly) forecast for Friday into next week.
This is the second time in four or five years we've had MAJOR problem with forest fire smoke. NOT something that was the norm for my first quarter century in the great Pacific Northwest.
Anyone who tries to tell you that global warming isn't real, is blowing smoke up your ass.
Always want the reports, SSI. I was going to say nothing is too arcane for this site. That might not be true - but this is nowhere near the limit of arcanery. Keep it coming!
Air Quality Index for York = 33 = good!
Addendum - Westminster AQI = approx 60 = moderate
AQI 44 in Dublin = Good
I was going to ask you where you got this from and thought Google might answer me - this is quite a good source: https://aqicn.org/map/unitedkingdom/
You mention York: traditionally, AQ in York has been surprisingly poor for a small city due to its location in relation to a number of coal power stations. Almost no coal being burned for UK electricity now, but AQ still relatively poor for a small city. I expect due to traffic.
It's worth noting that, as I understand it, these AQI stats tend to by hyper local - that is, they will be quite different 100 yards away. The primary driver is traffic, and the worst areas in the UK are largely those roads with the heaviest traffic (and with frequent traffic jams).
It's going to be funny when there's barely a bounce for whoever comes next. The public's had it with the Tories.
Correct, but remember that the game here is to rally around the core vote for the next GE.
If the Tories play it right again under the right leader it should get them back to 30%+ share
Is there someone who can lead the Conservatives and paper over the cracks? It's a big ask. All the leading candidates have sizeable constituencies against them. For example, Hunt, Sunak and Mourdant are not unity candidates. You do not want a rookie, sorry Kemi. So who is there? Hague is your best bet, with someone stepping aside for him to get him back in the HoC.
It won't be Hague. They could not get him back into the Commons fast enough. We could not have a couple of months of PMQs with no PM. There is Theresa May as the thread header posits, and I am not sure there are all that many people against Hunt or Sunak and so on.
I quite like Mike's idea. May potentially gives them a little time and space. Coffey would be awful - generally, but added to that she may be in trouble for roughing up MPs. Truss could be in place for a few weeks, but that'd mean a very rushed and messy replacement.
I don't imagine that Brady has managed to find an agreed proper replacement.
It has to be the hour of the blonde Titchmarsh. If not now, when?
Re. the potential cable-cutting. It can be argued that one of the first acts Britain committed during World War One won the war (eventually). Within the first few weeks of the war, we cut all but one of Germany's marine cables (and we had access to that one).
This severely hampered German international communications throughout the war, and aided our signals intelligence. Then in 1917 it allowed the infamous Zimmerman Telegram to be intercepted, which helped bring the US into the war.
Cutting cables nowadays would not have the same effect; but it may prove absolutely awful for trade.
Air quality in Seattle is now slightly improved, now AQ1=230 = very unhealthy. So bad it actually woke me up in middle of night (why I'm up working AND typing here).
Wind's are shifting, and sloooooowly begining to bring in clean(er) air from North Pacific, with rain (which we need badly) forecast for Friday into next week.
This is the second time in four or five years we've had MAJOR problem with forest fire smoke. NOT something that was the norm for my first quarter century in the great Pacific Northwest.
Anyone who tries to tell you that global warming isn't real, is blowing smoke up your ass.
Always want the reports, SSI. I was going to say nothing is too arcane for this site. That might not be true - but this is nowhere near the limit of arcanery. Keep it coming!
Air Quality Index for York = 33 = good!
Addendum - Westminster AQI = approx 60 = moderate
AQI 44 in Dublin = Good
I was going to ask you where you got this from and thought Google might answer me - this is quite a good source: https://aqicn.org/map/unitedkingdom/
You mention York: traditionally, AQ in York has been surprisingly poor for a small city due to its location in relation to a number of coal power stations. Almost no coal being burned for UK electricity now, but AQ still relatively poor for a small city. I expect due to traffic.
It's worth noting that, as I understand it, these AQI stats tend to by hyper local - that is, they will be quite different 100 yards away. The primary driver is traffic, and the worst areas in the UK are largely those roads with the heaviest traffic (and with frequent traffic jams).
This is my source, covers the globe. Lots of monitoring sites depending on area, hundreds in Seattle:
Addendum - your point re: locality is very correct, for example in Seattle you can definitely see nexus between local topography - not just big mountains like Olympics and Cascades, but local features such as Phinney Ridge in North Seattle.
Comments
https://twitter.com/MrMichaelSpicer/status/1582863711966220288
What on earth will happen with a 'temporary' one?
When Boris resigned, his government became a caretaker government at that point, that was agreed by the Cabinet.
If Liz went and advised Charles to appoint Coffey as caretaker Prime Minister until her successor could be chosen then he would do that but Coffey would not necessarily be permanent PM.
One to watch
This tells me the person in charge of the enquiry is a complete fool.
Which, given it's a government enquiry, is probably par for the course.
I think it’s game over .
Just because its never happened before, doesn't mean it can't happen. Plenty of things have never happened before but are possible.
Incidentally, my dad taught me a little tip when I was a kid: when booking a tradesman, take a look at the inside of their van. If it is neat and tidy, they will probably do a good job and leave your place tidy. If the cab is stuffed with newspapers, chip papers and empty cans of pop, don't hire them. I've found it to be quite accurate so far.
So no.
Surely we should have a Bank Holiday when Truss goes, as there's much more to celebrate?
But it would be amusing.
@KevinASchofield
·
2m
Tory MP tells HuffPost UK: "It’s definitely over. The 1922 Committee are just co-ordinating optics to help soften the blow for the prime minister."
I know prior to 1997 it was MP ballots only (and prior to... 1965? it was the men in grey suits) but why did Hague think it a good idea to change it to add the membership?
And why did he (if I understand correctly) later regret this?
As for your final point, not sure the hundreds of dead (bodies still being recovered I believe) in Southwest Florida would concur.
Of course THIS situation was related to gross over-development of the Everglades & surrounding coastal wetlands & barrier islands, aided and abetted by lack of environmental regulation, and widespread circumvention of whatever regs they are, in the name of fun and profit.
Including by public politicos, power-brokers and assorted land-pirates in Lee County, where commissioners delayed mandatory evacuation orders with fatal consequences for their constituents.
Also: wait and see who replaces her.
If the Tories play it right again under the right leader it should get them back to 30%+ share
In the long run, this would probably help the Tories by flushing out their lunatic fringe while they recover as a sensible, competent party of the centre-right.
Addendum - Westminster AQI = approx 60 = moderate
And in London, does the like of Aspire start to reach and branch outward?
What are they going to tell the public and what will they spend the next one or two terms pondering and regrouping around?
They have tried the far out extreme small state, low taxes route and look what happened; they tried the austerity, real-term spending cuts. Who in the Party has a majority to do anything and who will get purged?
I just can't see an obvious direction for the Cons in the months and years ahead.
(Edit: sorry, clicked on "Off-topic" by accident.)
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1583066855014481920
When a GE is in the offing they have a choice to make and it may well be on a 'our son of a bitch' basis.
And he changed the rules for the same reason everyone does: personal advantage. He knew he had more support in the party (with whom he was ideologically similar) than he did amongst MPs (many of whom he was younger than, and some of whom felt it should be their turn rather than his).
It was an unexploded bomb for 20 years. The Tories were lucky that this situation hadn't arisen earlier. You can't have a leader who doesn't have the backing of the MPs who sit behind him. It was a shambles for Corbyn too, but he could do it from opposition.
It is bitterly divided. Two years of stop start chaos is not going to help you. There is no leader out there who can heal the wounds, you are looking for someone who can paper over them.
I don't imagine that Brady has managed to find an agreed proper replacement.
https://aqicn.org/map/unitedkingdom/
You mention York: traditionally, AQ in York has been surprisingly poor for a small city due to its location in relation to a number of coal power stations. Almost no coal being burned for UK electricity now, but AQ still relatively poor for a small city. I expect due to traffic.
It's worth noting that, as I understand it, these AQI stats tend to by hyper local - that is, they will be quite different 100 yards away. The primary driver is traffic, and the worst areas in the UK are largely those roads with the heaviest traffic (and with frequent traffic jams).
Re. the potential cable-cutting. It can be argued that one of the first acts Britain committed during World War One won the war (eventually). Within the first few weeks of the war, we cut all but one of Germany's marine cables (and we had access to that one).
This severely hampered German international communications throughout the war, and aided our signals intelligence. Then in 1917 it allowed the infamous Zimmerman Telegram to be intercepted, which helped bring the US into the war.
Cutting cables nowadays would not have the same effect; but it may prove absolutely awful for trade.
https://www.iqair.com/us/air-quality-map?lat=47.568236&lng=-122.308628&zoomLevel=10
Addendum - your point re: locality is very correct, for example in Seattle you can definitely see nexus between local topography - not just big mountains like Olympics and Cascades, but local features such as Phinney Ridge in North Seattle.
Or at least a statement from no. 10