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Punters make it a 64% chance that Truss won’t survive 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,353

    SBK on oddschecker has just gone 1/20 for Truss to leave in 2022...

    My 2-1 on her staying to year end might turn out to be one of the worst tips in PB history.

    (Although @Roger's "No" probably tops it :smile: )
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295
    edited October 2022
    Someone should ask if Truss will be at PMQs on Wednesday
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,156

    Penny saying she cannot give the reasons for Truss absence and hopes she will be joining them later

    Is Truss on the edge and about to resign

    Medical confidentiality would cover a situation where the PM was talking to a mental health professional.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    MikeL said:

    Penny now 2nd favourite ahead of Hunt and Wallace.

    Was 4th favourite an hour ago.

    This standing-in was a gift for her, far from it being a horrible position to be put in.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,507
    Patricia Gibson, that's about the ninth variation on that question. At least be original.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,098

    This standing-in was a gift for her, far from it being a horrible position to be put in.
    As I said it would be.
  • Someone should ask if Truss will be at PMQs on Wednesday

    Penny has hinted she will be available at PMQ

    I really cannot see it
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    The Guardian had a photo of her returning to Downing Street (from where?) a couple of hours ago.

    I believe that the King is at Balmoral.
    If he has any sense he’ll stay there a good while.
    Hope he’s got plenty of popcorn in the larder.
  • Possibly a briefing on Russian build-up in Belarus, but that's pure guesswork on my part.
  • Truss placed Penny in an impossible position and Penny has performed very well under the circumstances and it is shameful, utterly shameful, Truss put her in this position

    Truss is a disgrace to the office of Prime Minister and in a few short weeks has established herself as the worst PM in my lifetime
    That is really saying something. Especially as BGNW has observed (I think) every PM in action since Lord North!
  • eekeek Posts: 29,731

    If she's in Parliament then she isn't at a Cobra etc. Maybe being given the last rites by Brady.

    Sam Coates Sky
    @SamCoatesSky
    Penny Mordaunt unable to say why the PM isn't in the Chamber (tho she is on the Parliamentary estate)

    Suggests there's a very good, non economic reason for absence

    "There are very serious matters as well as economic matters .... She will be here tomorrow"
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    Calling it now. Truss is going to be resigning in next couple of days. Penny is going to be the compromise candidate, leading a government drawn from all wings of the party.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,661
    Here she is!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,087
    Liz Truss has arrived at the House of Commons
  • Just walked in would you believe
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    She's here!!!!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    "A bus, maybe....but not a desk."
    What about in a Fridge?

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Nope there would have been a briefing to Labour Party if it was that serious. That said I would have thought they would also have shared her being ill.
    A sick note is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point onwards.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,098

    Penny has hinted she will be available at PMQ

    I really cannot see it
    Now explicitly confirmed
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    Oh how ridiculous.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,589

    Someone should ask if Truss will be at PMQs on Wednesday

    Someone just has!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,098
    And there she is!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    We will hear from the prime minister *in the next 24 hours*, says Mordaunt. This is sounding… bad.

    If its health related and she is going it would be poor form not to have informed SKS before he went in 2 footed
    I would expect him to have been informed by back channels even if not by Number 10 direct
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,507
    She's just taking the piss now. At least take the last few questions.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Looks happy as a happy thing.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035

    Farage? Exactly where he was strongest in 2015 and 2019.
    You seem to be assuming nothing much has changed since Farage was polling well. We are now experiencing Brexit and people are not exactly dancing in the streets.

    A small anecdote - I have had numerous friendly chats over the years with the guy mows our lawns. He strongly backed Brexit and voted for UKIP on numerous occasions. Last week he told me that if Farage was standing in front of him right now he would punch his lights out.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,132
    Labour should do a point of order and get Starmer to ask the question again.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Truss should really stand up and start answering questions if she wanted to show leadership.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,098
    And Truss now sits there while Penny does her job ten times better
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,505
    exit price dropping.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,132
    edited October 2022
    Oh the SNP guy has fucked it if there was a genuine reason
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Looks happy as a happy thing.

    Demob happy?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771

    If its health related and she is going it would be poor form not to have informed SKS before he went in 2 footed
    I would expect him to have been informed by back channels even if not by Number 10 durect
    Something deeply serious that doesn't impact on any other world leaders whose itineraries seem to be uninterrupted, and permits her to be smiling happily back on the front bench when the danger of having to speak is over.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Truss on the front bench.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276

    If its health related and she is going it would be poor form not to have informed SKS before he went in 2 footed
    I would expect him to have been informed by back channels even if not by Number 10 direct
    Good point.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,507
    Well, Mordaunt had a brutal hour there but she did pretty well on the whole with only a couple of mistakes under appalling pressure.

    Bryant raising the point of order. Quite rightly.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,394
    Anger boiling over now.. Cabinet Minister tells me:

    “Team Rishi’s efforts are fuelling the destabilisation of the government. This in turn is fuelling market volatility. They should stop being bad losers and desist... 1/2

    ...and Rishi seems to have forgotten that he was the author of all this over-spending. No one wants to give the matches back to the arsonist.”


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1582027871627116544
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    Here we go...point of order.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,132
    edited October 2022
    This might be the most exciting hour of British politics I've ever experienced

    Unrelenting, rapid drama. Different vibe to the "boom" of the exit poll or the slow burn of Johnson's collapse
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,505

    That is really saying something. Especially as BGNW has observed (I think) every PM in action since Lord North!
    I think you are think of @JackW ?

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302

    Demob happy?
    Has she been seeing Mr Brady I wonder?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    OllyT said:

    You seem to be assuming nothing much has changed since Farage was polling well. We are now experiencing Brexit and people are not exactly dancing in the streets.

    A small anecdote - I have had numerous friendly chats over the years with the guy mows our lawns. He strongly backed Brexit and voted for UKIP on numerous occasions. Last week he told me that if Farage was standing in front of him right now he would punch his lights out.
    Rejoin 'might' be in the lead now, yes, but there is significant minority support for Brexit still.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Labour quite right to say she should just stand up and explain why. Truss had the opportunity to show leadership. She chose not to. Tory MPs will have noticed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,505
    PM speaking now.

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    This is just unreal.

    She is sat there nodding her head while Hunt, right next to her, undoes her entire agenda.
  • Truss look physically sick and ill, this is just sad...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,505
    PM now on about the vulnerable being protected again.

    Can they seriously now not upgrade benefits by actual inflation.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,098
    Truss looks white as a sheet
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,505

    Truss look physically sick and ill, this is just sad...

    Got a stupid smirk on her face though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,730
    edited October 2022
    IanB2 said:

    In the Rockies with some baked beans
    No, I’m about to go riding in the Great Sand Dunes National Park. Colorado

  • AlistairM said:

    Labour quite right to say she should just stand up and explain why. Truss had the opportunity to show leadership. She chose not to. Tory MPs will have noticed.

    If it is a legitimate matter of national or international security, something related to the war perhaps, it would not be necessarily appropriate to just blurt it out.

    If its not, then they're not going to blurt it out either.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,132
    This Tory hustings is great. The acerbic Mordaunt or the smooth Hunt. Hmmm.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,132
    Is that Truss or her ghost?
  • Got a stupid smirk on her face though.
    Heavily depressed people often put on a brave face in public...
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,491
    Eabhal said:

    This Tory hustings is great. The acerbic Mordaunt or the smooth Hunt. Hmmm.

    Truss looks like a robot now. All she is doing is blinking, and I think that is autonomic.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,505
    Eabhal said:

    This Tory hustings is great. The acerbic Mordaunt or the smooth Hunt. Hmmm.

    The next PM is back in Richmondshire drinking coke and eating popcorn though.
  • PM speaking now.

    That confused me as I am watching her sitting next to Hunt, looking dreadful
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035

    Not just that, but sound judgement;

    Early in 2016, with the approach of the European Union referendum, Boris Johnson was wavering between Leave and Remain, and Wallace advised him strongly to support Remain, as taking the Leave side would mean being allied with "clowns".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Wallace_(politician)
    Wallace is going up in my estimation by the minute!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,507

    If it is a legitimate matter of national or international security, something related to the war perhaps, it would not be necessarily appropriate to just blurt it out.

    If its not, then they're not going to blurt it out either.
    The point is, you could say there was an urgent matter of N/IS without giving details.

    True, people might not believe it but it would be better than this ambiguity.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    IanB2 said:

    Truss looks white as a sheet

    I probably would too if literally everything id ever wanted was going away and i could do nothing but blame myself
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,098

    Possibly a briefing on Russian build-up in Belarus, but that's pure guesswork on my part.

    Or just that all those knots take time to untie?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,507

    That confused me as I am watching her sitting next to Hunt, looking dreadful
    It was a joke, I think, saying Hunt is PM...
  • eekeek Posts: 29,731

    The next PM is back in Richmondshire drinking coke and eating popcorn though.
    He actually lives in Hambleton if he's up North today.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276
    Leon said:

    No, I’m about to go riding in the Great Sand Dunes National Park. Colorado

    I fell of a horse in the summer. I wouldn't recommend it.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    If it is a legitimate matter of national or international security, something related to the war perhaps, it would not be necessarily appropriate to just blurt it out.

    If its not, then they're not going to blurt it out either.
    That is true. She needed to do something though. Just sitting saying nothing is not good enough, if just for her own chances of survival. Tory MPs will have noticed that she is there but not leading.
  • New drinking game, a sip for everytime Truss blinks......good luck
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    AlistairM said:

    Penny looks incredibly serious every time she explains why Truss isn't there. It doesn't look made up. One really hopes it is not something serious.

    I'm not watching, so...

    "every time"? How many opposition MPs have wasted their question by repeating a question someone else has asked?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,249
    Hunt has just thrown Kwarteng under the OBR bus.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,098
    Stocky said:

    I fell of a horse in the summer. I wouldn't recommend it.
    Should that be ‘off’? Or ‘for’?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Eabhal said:

    This Tory hustings is great. The acerbic Mordaunt or the smooth Hunt. Hmmm.

    They should've just done this in the Summer and saved weeks of hustings. Either would be better. I think Mordaunt is a bit more charismatic and would save more Tory seats.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,132
    "I've decided" - Hunt

    Wowsa
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,132
    Will he defer or refer to Truss at all?!
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    If I had any doubt that she was on her way out in the next week, I haven’t now.

    That situation with Penny Mordaunt was utterly ridiculous. Tory MPs will have noticed Truss didn’t bother to defend herself, and they will have noticed Penny mucked in and acquitted herself well (or as well as she could in the circumstances).

  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,915
    Leon said:

    No, I’m about to go riding in the Great Sand Dunes National Park. Colorado

    Pikes Peak a bit too close to NORAD?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    LT looks catatonic.

    And who can blame her, frankly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,507
    Driver said:

    I'm not watching, so...

    "every time"? How many opposition MPs have wasted their question by repeating a question someone else has asked?
    About eleven of them.

    Which was doubly stupid because that gave Mordaunt an easy answer. When there were different questions, like Johnson's superb 'will the PM not take further part in economic decision making' she found it far, far tougher.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Hunt has just thrown Kwarteng under the OBR bus.

    Kwarteng's a political corpse, he's past caring.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795

    That confused me as I am watching her sitting next to Hunt, looking dreadful
    That one went over your head (ie Hunt is defacto PM)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295
    Driver said:

    I'm not watching, so...

    "every time"? How many opposition MPs have wasted their question by repeating a question someone else has asked?
    Blimey yes, that's got to be over 100 blinks per minute.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    New drinking game, a sip for everytime Truss blinks......good luck

    Wow. It is non stop. She has probably not been sleeping.
  • The National Grid CEO has warned British households to prepare for blackouts between 4pm and 7pm on “really, really cold” weekdays in January and February

    https://www.ft.com/content/d31fbbd6-8325-43b7-94e4-29101cfe6045
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,505
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    10m
    .
    @trussliz
    has arrived, conveniently just as Hunt arrives. That national security reason very mysteriously ended just in time for Truss to arrive exactly as its time for Hunt to speak.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    AlistairM said:

    Wow. It is non stop. She has probably not been sleeping.
    Now you see it, you can't unsee it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Leon said:

    No, I’m about to go riding in the Great Sand Dunes National Park. Colorado

    Is that the eponymous 'Dunes' in the distance?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,507
    Hunt also impressively calm, even as he basically says 'I'm undoing all the previous stuff because it was a crock of shit.'
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276
    IanB2 said:

    Should that be ‘off’? Or ‘for’?
    Oops "off" I meant.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,440
    Is it likely she'll resign now? I wouldn't be surprised
  • Truss looks like she is dosed up on something heavy.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    If Truss isn’t mentally fit to cope with the job then she should just resign . People will be sympathetic if this is effecting her mental health but the brutal reality is you’re either upto the job or not .
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295
    Roger said:

    Is it likely she'll resign now? I wouldn't be surprised

    Wouldn't she have made a statement in response to the UQ?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,249
    Driver said:

    I'm not watching, so...

    "every time"? How many opposition MPs have wasted their question by repeating a question someone else has asked?
    You'd have loved it. Mordaunt crushed Starmer, Liam Byrne's note, the Labour Party and Liz Truss. It was brutal!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    edited October 2022
    Did Jezza (H) just announce a special economic advisory council made up of hedge fund principals and investment bankers?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,634
    TOPPING said:

    Did Jezza (H) just announce a special economic advisory council made up of hedge fund principals and investment bankers?

    That made me do a gasp 'oh wow'.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,933
    edited October 2022
    Maybe the "very good reason" was that they know she isn't up to it.
  • This




  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,811
    TOPPING said:

    Did Jezza (H) just announce a special economic advisory council made up of hedge fund principals and investment bankers?

    Including George Osborne's chief of staff.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,653
    edited October 2022
    TOPPING said:

    Did Jezza (H) just announce a special economic advisory council made up of hedge fund principals and investment bankers?

    Oooh, I should be on this council.
This discussion has been closed.