It is ELE. And this afternoon has made it worse. And tomorrow will make it worse. Then PMQs on Wednesday and it gets worse again. The government are now down to a forecast of 22 seats. Tactical voting could make it worse than that. So we are facing a Canada 93 scenario without as HY suggests a big seat haul for Nigel Farage.
Yes but its a snapshot and warning shot from people polled. There is no imminent GE. Its not going to be how a GE goes and nor are they going to go into one in this state. They polled 17% 6 months before winning an 80 majority. They will of course lose big but not like these horror polls.
that was due to the brexit party though
Yes, it was. But it demonstrates that things change, quickly. Are 56% really going to vote Labour? Not a chance in Hell
The National Grid CEO has warned British households to prepare for blackouts between 4pm and 7pm on “really, really cold” weekdays in January and February
Not really going to help between 4 and 7pm in January and February.
Sandy is being sarcastic...
But - so long as you have decent amounts of storage - he's not wrong. If you have lots of gas storage, then it's the amount of gas you burn over the year that matters, not the amount you need on a cold day in February at 5pm.
The problem is that the UK - almost uniquely among large developed economies - has very little storage. And some of the blame for this must fall to Sir Ed Davey, who failed to spend the relatively small sums required to keep the Rough storage facility open.
Oh, ok. Sorry Sandy.
How long can you store charge for? Batteries can bridge the gap between dusk and dawn, but they can't really bridge the gap between All Hallows Day and Candlemas - can they?
As a Conservative I am fed up. Boris’s positives were more than offset by his pathological need to please and not be found out. I was happy with going for growth, but ud should have been done by incentives for automation to increase productivity: the tax changes at top rate may have worked if the laffer curve was true. However now we will never know because Truss didn’t try to get anyone onside before leaping into the political unknown. She’s now like Wile Coyote with her legs running in empty air over the canyon.
One thing though - the members voted for her and if the MPs really thought she was that bad they should have given us Badenoch or Morduant as an option instead. They played games thinking we would go for Sunak. However we members don’t like disloyalty. So the MPs who are now going after Truss shouldn’t expect activist support, and definitely not if they get rid of her with a coronation
I'm not at all sure that's true - it was clear during the selection of the two candidates that if Sunak were one of them, he would lose.
Remarkably big score for the Tories – a fifth of the country claim to still support them. I hadn't realised the circus population was that large.
The local by election results of the last 3 weeks should show you the Tory vote isnt going to just dissolve. I'd expect even right now they'd get over 25% in an actual GE. There is enough fear and hatred of Labour where the Tories are the only alternative to drive nose peg voting
Even if they don't eventually do so by the time a GE rolls around, the fact that 56% of voters say they would now vote Labour is a strong indication that the "fear and hatred" of Labour is no longer the factor you believe it to be. Plus another 20% voting LD, Green and SNP who could well vote tactically.
People are not going to forget in a hurry the shambles that has engulfed this country since Johnson won his Tory majority 3 short years ago.
Laying Penny Mordaunt for next con leader at ~4/1 looks like a decent bet to me.
One failed leadership campaign and one decent commons performance does not a heavyweight make.
This is no time for an amateur.
In all reality, the next PM is not going to be doing much that isn’t signed off three times by the cabinet and the Chancellor. They are going to be there to give an air of competence, to look the part and to explain and sell policy to the British people.
The party is too divided and the economic situation too critical for the PM to be doing much else.
I think that's right - even after the chaos of the last few weeks there are still loads of Tory MPs who didn't want to U-turn, and that division is not going to change, so the gamble will be to be as safe as possible, avoid controversial (within party) decisions, and hope the new leader can recover their position from catastrophic to merely disastrous
So that heavily blinking person sat next to Hunt during his speech a few minutes ago was a malfuctioning robot, not the PM?
Would explain a lot.
She looked like she was struggling to keep her eyes open. Possibly not slept in days. She needs to go but she also has my sympathy as it must be terrible to be in that position. To want the top job but then immediately finding yourself manifestly incapable of it. For her own health now more than anything else she should step down. She might get quite a bit of sympathy if she held her hand up now.
The issues comes down to how do you quickly replace her and her cabinet of nobodies without triggering a full leadership contest where the next unknown quantity wins.
honestly think if it was purely members having their say it would be JRM next
Why do members matter? Councillors and activists maybe - but do they align with each other?
this from Chris Hope...basically admitting Truss isnt up to it
Liz Truss should stand aside at Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday and let Jeremy Hunt answer Sir Keir Starmer’s questions. #PMQs 11:18 AM · Oct 17, 2022 ·Twitter for iPhone
So that heavily blinking person sat next to Hunt during his speech a few minutes ago was a malfuctioning robot, not the PM?
Would explain a lot.
She looked like she was struggling to keep her eyes open. Possibly not slept in days. She needs to go but she also has my sympathy as it must be terrible to be in that position. To want the top job but then immediately finding yourself manifestly incapable of it. For her own health now more than anything else she should step down. She might get quite a bit of sympathy if she held her hand up now.
The issues comes down to how do you quickly replace her and her cabinet of nobodies without triggering a full leadership contest where the next unknown quantity wins.
honestly think if it was purely members having their say it would be JRM next
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
EEA, maybe, undoing Cameron/May's error.
But rejoin the EU, with the euro and Schengen as part of the package? Even if you could persuade the other 27 countries to offer it...
Remarkably big score for the Tories – a fifth of the country claim to still support them. I hadn't realised the circus population was that large.
The local by election results of the last 3 weeks should show you the Tory vote isnt going to just dissolve. I'd expect even right now they'd get over 25% in an actual GE. There is enough fear and hatred of Labour where the Tories are the only alternative to drive nose peg voting
Even if they don't eventually do so by the time a GE rolls around, the fact that 56% of voters say they would now vote Labour is a strong indication that the "fear and hatred" of Labour is no longer the factor you believe it its be.
I think this is absolutely right. I certainly would not vote for Labour. But I no longer fear a Labour government in the way I did for the last 2 decades.
Remarkably big score for the Tories – a fifth of the country claim to still support them. I hadn't realised the circus population was that large.
The local by election results of the last 3 weeks should show you the Tory vote isnt going to just dissolve. I'd expect even right now they'd get over 25% in an actual GE. There is enough fear and hatred of Labour where the Tories are the only alternative to drive nose peg voting
That polling has the Conservatives on 22%, yet only 7% of respondents think the government competent. So presumably 15% don’t think the government are competent but are still voting Tory!
There could be several reasons for that. They might think that Truss is a disaster, but presume that the Tories will replace her soon (as indeed they might). They might think the Tory government is a disaster, but that Labour or whoever would be worse. They might think the Tory government is a disaster, but think their own Tory MP/candidate is good.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Just what this country needs to heal its divisions. Another referendum.
Anything so we don't have to talk about voting systems.
Although interestingly, the referendum on voting systems did bring us together in our apathy. I can barely remember that now. I can remember the results but I honestly don't remember voting in it.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
EEA, maybe, undoing Cameron/May's error.
But rejoin the EU, with the euro and Schengen as part of the package? Even if you could persuade the other 27 countries to offer it...
No reason to think we wouldn't be able to get opt-outs for the euro and Schengen, or at least have a way of indefinitely delaying them as Sweden has gone. The rebate has gone for sure though.
So your argument would be that rather than joining EFTA/EEA and having the single market benefits without any of the political rubbish, we should pay a huge wad of additional money to rejoin the political stuff as well? And with the threat of having to join the Euro and Schengen at some point down the line.
Good luck with that.
EFTA/EEA is an easy sell - it is, after all, pretty much what was voted for in 1975 and what well over 90% of people were happy with right up until Maastricht changed everything.
And, of course, who's to say the Rejoin campaign would be any more competent than the Remain campaign was?
Remarkably big score for the Tories – a fifth of the country claim to still support them. I hadn't realised the circus population was that large.
The local by election results of the last 3 weeks should show you the Tory vote isnt going to just dissolve. I'd expect even right now they'd get over 25% in an actual GE. There is enough fear and hatred of Labour where the Tories are the only alternative to drive nose peg voting
Even if they don't eventually do so by the time a GE rolls around, the fact that 56% of voters say they would now vote Labour is a strong indication that the "fear and hatred" of Labour is no longer the factor you believe it its be.
I think this is absolutely right. I certainly would not vote for Labour. But I no longer fear a Labour government in the way I did for the last 2 decades.
Yes. While Starmer and Reeves are utterly vacuous and likely no better than the calibre of the present Tories, they don't scare the horses. Some of the others sitting nearby, however....
Eeek a suggestion there from Jeremy Hunt that the triple lock on pensions may be on the table.
He says he's "very aware of how many vulnerable pensioners there are and the importance of the triple lock" but that he is "not making any commitments on any individual policy areas".
iirc there was actually a very senior civil servant who had a total breakdown and was found under his desk in a huddle. Think it was during the crisis in 1970s but can't recall the details.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Just what this country needs to heal its divisions. Another referendum.
Anything so we don't have to talk about voting systems.
Although interestingly, the referendum on voting systems did bring us together in our apathy. I can barely remember that now. I can remember the results but I honestly don't remember voting in it.
Me neither. I can't even recall which way I voted. I always vote.
So that heavily blinking person sat next to Hunt during his speech a few minutes ago was a malfuctioning robot, not the PM?
Would explain a lot.
She looked like she was struggling to keep her eyes open. Possibly not slept in days. She needs to go but she also has my sympathy as it must be terrible to be in that position. To want the top job but then immediately finding yourself manifestly incapable of it. For her own health now more than anything else she should step down. She might get quite a bit of sympathy if she held her hand up now.
The issues comes down to how do you quickly replace her and her cabinet of nobodies without triggering a full leadership contest where the next unknown quantity wins.
honestly think if it was purely members having their say it would be JRM next
It would be Boris.
Probably.
It should be someone who can cobble up good MP support and, while they should not be involved, is not a spit in the face of the members - so Sunak is out, as are Hunt and Zahawi etc. Kind of only leaves Penny, but she didn't exactly impress in the contest.
It's hard to imagine what Liz is going through. One minute you had the world at your feet; the next slippery old Remainer Hunt has been installed above your head, and you're forced to watch, powerless, like a naughty schoolgirl, as he sweeps away everything you stood for like so much garbage. Crushing.
Eeek a suggestion there from Jeremy Hunt that the triple lock on pensions may be on the table.
He says he's "very aware of how many vulnerable pensioners there are and the importance of the triple lock" but that he is "not making any commitments on any individual policy areas".
The National Grid CEO has warned British households to prepare for blackouts between 4pm and 7pm on “really, really cold” weekdays in January and February
Not really going to help between 4 and 7pm in January and February.
Sandy is being sarcastic...
But - so long as you have decent amounts of storage - he's not wrong. If you have lots of gas storage, then it's the amount of gas you burn over the year that matters, not the amount you need on a cold day in February at 5pm.
The problem is that the UK - almost uniquely among large developed economies - has very little storage. And some of the blame for this must fall to Sir Ed Davey, who failed to spend the relatively small sums required to keep the Rough storage facility open.
Oh, ok. Sorry Sandy.
How long can you store charge for? Batteries can bridge the gap between dusk and dawn, but they can't really bridge the gap between All Hallows Day and Candlemas - can they?
If you generate electricity by renewables, you don't need to use gas so you can store the gas (shame HMG closed our main gas storage facility mind). Also, hydro can be kept back for when the sun don't shine.
Solar does work through the winter too*, just not as much. But yes, fundamentally, wind and tidal help more with winter demand.
Edit: *To illustrate this, here is what our panels generated last year. December and January only c.15% of the summer months. Still worth having though.
January 2021 95.9 kWh February 2021 184.2 kWh March 2021 319.9 kWh April 2021 576.2 kWh May 2021 507.2 kWh June 2021 521.4 kWh July 2021 538.0 kWh August 2021 424.6 kWh September 2021 361.9 kWh October 2021 244.6 kWh November 2021 165.4 kWh December 2021 78.5 kWh Total 4,017.9 kWh
May sufferred embarrassment as PM for long periods, including nearly losing to Corbyn. But with three years under her belt and soldiering on through difficult periods, she still has grudging respect in some quarters.
Poor Truss, who I was indifferent to prior to all this, won't have any respect for being ousted so soon, but also won't be respected in office with such poor numbers.
Remarkably big score for the Tories – a fifth of the country claim to still support them. I hadn't realised the circus population was that large.
The local by election results of the last 3 weeks should show you the Tory vote isnt going to just dissolve. I'd expect even right now they'd get over 25% in an actual GE. There is enough fear and hatred of Labour where the Tories are the only alternative to drive nose peg voting
Even if they don't eventually do so by the time a GE rolls around, the fact that 56% of voters say they would now vote Labour is a strong indication that the "fear and hatred" of Labour is no longer the factor you believe it its be.
It is in the same way it was in 1997. The actual votes were nowhere near the years of 20% plus leads and the 'ready for govt' and Blair ratings were much better than Labour 2022. The current focus is the meltdown and chaos, Labour are the default answer to 'whom?' when the govt is falling apart. The focus of real choice will concentrate matters. Local by elections of the last month suggest both the Tories still getting better actual votes than the polling (still very much down of course) and no detectable enthusiasm for Labour commensurate with 50% plus polling. Thems the facts.
It's hard to imagine what Liz is going through. One minute you had the world at your feet; the next slippery old Remainer Hunt has been installed above you're head, and you're forced to watch, powerless, like a naughty schoolgirl, as he sweeps away everything you stood for like so much garbage. Crushing.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Bring it on. We will rout the FBPE fools once again
You seem to be forgetting you only won by 3% in 2016 and things have changed dramatically since then.
Remarkably big score for the Tories – a fifth of the country claim to still support them. I hadn't realised the circus population was that large.
The local by election results of the last 3 weeks should show you the Tory vote isnt going to just dissolve. I'd expect even right now they'd get over 25% in an actual GE. There is enough fear and hatred of Labour where the Tories are the only alternative to drive nose peg voting
Even if they don't eventually do so by the time a GE rolls around, the fact that 56% of voters say they would now vote Labour is a strong indication that the "fear and hatred" of Labour is no longer the factor you believe it its be.
I think this is absolutely right. I certainly would not vote for Labour. But I no longer fear a Labour government in the way I did for the last 2 decades.
Yes. While Starmer and Reeves are utterly vacuous and likely no better than the calibre of the present Tories, they don't scare the horses. Some of the others sitting nearby, however....
To be fair that is ever the way with parties. Did anyone voting for Cameron in 2015 expect to end up with Truss in 2022? I know there were 2 GEs in between but still, the collapse of the credibility of the Tory party has been astonishing.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Just what this country needs to heal its divisions. Another referendum.
Anything so we don't have to talk about voting systems.
Now that YOU mention it . . .
On my 2022 general election ballot (arriving in mail later this week):
City of Seattle Proposition Nos. 1A and 1B
Proposition 1A (submitted by Initiative Petition No. 134) and Proposition 1B (alternative proposed by the City Council and Mayor) concern allowing voters to select multiple candidates in City primary elections.
Proposition 1A (Initiative 134) would allow voters in primary elections for Mayor, City Attorney, and City Council to select on the ballot as many candidates as they approve of for each office. The two candidates receiving the most votes for each office would advance to the general election, consistent with state law. The City would consult with King County to include instructions on the primary ballot such as “vote for AS MANY as you approve of” for each office.
As an alternative, the Seattle City Council and Mayor have proposed Proposition 1B (Ordinance 126625), which would allow primary election voters for Mayor, City Attorney, and City Council to rank candidates by preference. In the first round of processing, each voter’s top preference would be counted. The candidate receiving the fewest would be eliminated. Successive rounds of counting would eliminate one candidate each round, counting each voter’s top preference among remaining candidates, until two candidates remain to proceed to the general election. King County would include instructions on the ballot for voters.
1. Should either of these measures be enacted into law? Yes No
2. Regardless of whether you voted yes or no above, if one of these measures is enacted, which one should it be? Proposition 1A Proposition 1B
SSI - personally think I prefer 1A, mainly because IF we had Ranked Choice Voting, would make way more sense to do what Alaska is doing; have a Top Four primary, with winners going forward to a Ranked Choice general election.
Eeek a suggestion there from Jeremy Hunt that the triple lock on pensions may be on the table.
He says he's "very aware of how many vulnerable pensioners there are and the importance of the triple lock" but that he is "not making any commitments on any individual policy areas".
Good in theory, but the government would collapse before it did that on top of everything else I reckon, so I assume this is more 'For god's sake markets we are being serious now, so is this enough leg being shown?'
Off-topic, but a reminder of the challenges of 'levelling up' (remember that?): In Walsall, there is a difference of almost thirty years in life expectancy between the poor and well-off parts of the borough. Just staggering:
It is possible that zooming in on Walsall gives a spread of 10x the nation overall, but I hae me doots.
Yep, I was sceptical, but it's a serious study. For comparison, I was told by the leader of the council that here in Sussex there's a ten-year difference across the county.
Bear in mind that in comparing larger areas (London to NE) you're diluting the effect quite considerably because of each area contains a mix of poorer and better-off bits. In that sense, 'levelling up' was always a flawed concept if interpreted as purely about different regions.
Eeek a suggestion there from Jeremy Hunt that the triple lock on pensions may be on the table.
He says he's "very aware of how many vulnerable pensioners there are and the importance of the triple lock" but that he is "not making any commitments on any individual policy areas".
Eeek a suggestion there from Jeremy Hunt that the triple lock on pensions may be on the table.
He says he's "very aware of how many vulnerable pensioners there are and the importance of the triple lock" but that he is "not making any commitments on any individual policy areas".
As a Conservative I am fed up. Boris’s positives were more than offset by his pathological need to please and not be found out. I was happy with going for growth, but ud should have been done by incentives for automation to increase productivity: the tax changes at top rate may have worked if the laffer curve was true. However now we will never know because Truss didn’t try to get anyone onside before leaping into the political unknown. She’s now like Wile Coyote with her legs running in empty air over the canyon.
One thing though - the members voted for her and if the MPs really thought she was that bad they should have given us Badenoch or Morduant as an option instead. They played games thinking we would go for Sunak. However we members don’t like disloyalty. So the MPs who are now going after Truss shouldn’t expect activist support, and definitely not if they get rid of her with a coronation
I'm not at all sure that's true - it was clear during the selection of the two candidates that if Sunak were one of them, he would lose.
I know people semi interested in politics who thought Sunak would obviously win, and were surprised when I said true politics geeks knew he had no shot. It was closer than expected in the end, and pretty sure he lost to anybody though, so games playing was still possible, since who did they think he had the best chance against?
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Bring it on. We will rout the FBPE fools once again
Don't think porkies on a bus are going to cut it this time
If you think Starmer is going to risk his whole premiership on EU membership when most people are lukewarm at best and just want the whole issue to go away for a decade then you are madder than the ERG mob.
If he has any sense he will make the case for EFTA membership and single market access. And once that happens any chance of rejoining the political aspects of the EU are dead for good.
This is why he should not be supported. Starmer now has a pathological aversion to freedom of movement because it will offend the RedWall.
Conservatives like Hunt are more likely to re-embrace the European experiment through EFTA, EEA, which may, after I am dead and buried lead to greater ties etc. The post-Brexit new guard Conservatives are worth a look.
Eeek a suggestion there from Jeremy Hunt that the triple lock on pensions may be on the table.
He says he's "very aware of how many vulnerable pensioners there are and the importance of the triple lock" but that he is "not making any commitments on any individual policy areas".
It's hard to imagine what Liz is going through. One minute you had the world at your feet; the next slippery old Remainer Hunt has been installed above you're head, and you're forced to watch, powerless, like a naughty schoolgirl, as he sweeps away everything you stood for like so much garbage. Crushing.
...
Plus your Great God the Markets have told you that the theories you have nurtured for decades like Gollum with the ring don't stand up to five minutes of contact with market realities.
Everything you believed in has been show to be utter crap.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Bring it on. We will rout the FBPE fools once again
You seem to be forgetting you only won by 3% in 2016 and things have changed dramatically since then.
IIRC Rejoin was 16% ahead in the last poll I saw
May was 22 points ahead 3 weeks before the 2017 GE.
Starmer won't risk his premiership on an unnecessary reopening of the EU question. Though I do hope he will look at the less contentious issue of EFTA membership (but again think he is probably too cautious to do so)
The National Grid CEO has warned British households to prepare for blackouts between 4pm and 7pm on “really, really cold” weekdays in January and February
Not really going to help between 4 and 7pm in January and February.
Sandy is being sarcastic...
But - so long as you have decent amounts of storage - he's not wrong. If you have lots of gas storage, then it's the amount of gas you burn over the year that matters, not the amount you need on a cold day in February at 5pm.
The problem is that the UK - almost uniquely among large developed economies - has very little storage. And some of the blame for this must fall to Sir Ed Davey, who failed to spend the relatively small sums required to keep the Rough storage facility open.
Oh, ok. Sorry Sandy.
How long can you store charge for? Batteries can bridge the gap between dusk and dawn, but they can't really bridge the gap between All Hallows Day and Candlemas - can they?
If you generate electricity by renewables, you don't need to use gas so you can store the gas (shame HMG closed our main gas storage facility mind). Also, hydro can be kept back for when the sun don't shine.
Solar does work through the winter too*, just not as much. But yes, fundamentally, wind and tidal help more with winter demand.
Edit: *To illustrate this, here is what our panels generated last year. December and January only c.15% of the summer months. Still worth having though.
January 2021 95.9 kWh February 2021 184.2 kWh March 2021 319.9 kWh April 2021 576.2 kWh May 2021 507.2 kWh June 2021 521.4 kWh July 2021 538.0 kWh August 2021 424.6 kWh September 2021 361.9 kWh October 2021 244.6 kWh November 2021 165.4 kWh December 2021 78.5 kWh Total 4,017.9 kWh
Great plan if renewables could supply all our daytime demand - sadly it can't this winter nor for the next few winters
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Bring it on. We will rout the FBPE fools once again
You seem to be forgetting you only won by 3% in 2016 and things have changed dramatically since then.
IIRC Rejoin was 16% ahead in the last poll I saw
Rejoin is generslly ahead by single figures of late. There have been 2 large rejoin leads over 10% both by Omnisis, nobody else seems to have polled the question since to see if its an in house effect or the actual position generally. Stay out has led as recently as April. I suspect rejoin may not look as sexy a prospect after this winter.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Bring it on. We will rout the FBPE fools once again
Don't think porkies on a bus are going to cut it this time
If you think Starmer is going to risk his whole premiership on EU membership when most people are lukewarm at best and just want the whole issue to go away for a decade then you are madder than the ERG mob.
If he has any sense he will make the case for EFTA membership and single market access. And once that happens any chance of rejoining the political aspects of the EU are dead for good.
This is why he should not be supported. Starmer now has a pathological aversion to freedom of movement because it will offend the RedWall.
Conservatives like Hunt are more likely to re-embrace the European experiment through EFTA, EEA, which may, after I am dead and buried lead to greater ties etc. The post-Brexit new guard Conservatives are worth a look.
Though I made the mistake of not mentioning it in my posting (apologies) I was actually meaning the EFTA route into the EEA which would involve freedom of movement. I think it is something he would consider - at least I hope he would. It is an elegant compromise.
Maybe this is daft, but are there really huge votes in maintaining the triple lock?
This is an economic crisis; I think Hunt has more leeway than some think, and any Tory hopes lie in rebuilding public finances rather than a giveaways which sounds “oh so 2019”.
Told ya. Surely it was "go before you're pushed, PM"?
I watched some of that - Brady was already in the chamber about 10-15 minutes into the UQ, sat on the frontmost bench that is facing forwards towards the speaker and perpendicular to the front benches.
Eeek a suggestion there from Jeremy Hunt that the triple lock on pensions may be on the table.
He says he's "very aware of how many vulnerable pensioners there are and the importance of the triple lock" but that he is "not making any commitments on any individual policy areas".
As a Conservative I am fed up. Boris’s positives were more than offset by his pathological need to please and not be found out. I was happy with going for growth, but ud should have been done by incentives for automation to increase productivity: the tax changes at top rate may have worked if the laffer curve was true. However now we will never know because Truss didn’t try to get anyone onside before leaping into the political unknown. She’s now like Wile Coyote with her legs running in empty air over the canyon.
One thing though - the members voted for her and if the MPs really thought she was that bad they should have given us Badenoch or Morduant as an option instead. They played games thinking we would go for Sunak. However we members don’t like disloyalty. So the MPs who are now going after Truss shouldn’t expect activist support, and definitely not if they get rid of her with a coronation
What disloyalty? Sunak stuck in there for much longer than a backstabber-for-its-own-sake would have done. Prior to his resignation the only squeak from him was that he said he "wouldn't personally have said" what that utter pig Johnson said about Starmer and Savile in the HoC.
So enough of the HYUFDian "we members" bollocks. I have voted tory in every GE since 1979, except 2005, and one of the preconditions of my ever doing so again is that the right to be involved in leadership decisions is limited to MPs and just possibly the National Convention, not to a lot of elderly low wattage 25 quidder windbags. You inflict IDS and Johnson and Truss on party and country, Truss apparently on the flouncily self-important and fictitious ground that you "don’t like disloyalty?" I have two words for you, of which one is off, and a helpful hint or two as to where to stick your activism.
Off-topic, but a reminder of the challenges of 'levelling up' (remember that?): In Walsall, there is a difference of almost thirty years in life expectancy between the poor and well-off parts of the borough. Just staggering:
It is possible that zooming in on Walsall gives a spread of 10x the nation overall, but I hae me doots.
The larger areas like NE/London will average out - hence the small differences. After all, there is huge poverty in London, and plenty of well off areas in the NE.
You're right about the "zoom". As I mentioned you can have areas that have decades difference in life expectancy just 50m apart in London - usually either areas where a street of private houses is next to streets of HMOs.
It *is* staggering as you're not trying to bring up a few poor people by 3 years, you are looking at millions who are many years apart - and in terms of healthy life expectancy, multiple decades.
Maybe this is daft, but are there really huge votes in maintaining the triple lock?
This is an economic crisis; I think Hunt has more leeway than some think, and any Tory hopes lie in rebuilding public finances rather than a giveaways which sounds “oh so 2019”.
Very few people understand what it is, but, yes, now would be a good time to ditch it as a formal commitment, even if the government raised pensions by inflation, which would mean no loss to pensioners for now.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Rejoin ref IndyRef2 PR
too many things too quickly.
If Labour has a majority it's hard to see how IndyRef2 comes into place and likewise rejoining has to be a longer term project.
The important change in the next election is to change our electoral system so that we aren't left with a 2 party system where 1 or other has the risk of being hijacked towards the extremes.
Rejoining won’t happen anytime soon and why would the EU have us given the trouble we have been.
A closer relationship is the best we can hope for.
The relationdhip we have now is fine tbh. There is a whole world to forge ties with, without all the EU bulllshit
Ah, yes, that would be why our economy is booming and our PM is respected around the world. We certainly don’t have the US President and the IMF criticising our policies, or the Indian government wanting to pull out of a trade deal because our Home Secretary insulted them.
Likewise, I’m surprised that full on “rejoin” is ahead by some margin.
Hunt could indeed look for some kind of EFTA deal and I think the pushback might be less than people think, especially since migration numbers remain high.
I think Hunt might do something a bit outlandish in the budget as a way of trying to make the Tories look like they’re making the wealthy pay a bit more .
So is it possible we could see the top rate go up temporarily.
Maybe this is daft, but are there really huge votes in maintaining the triple lock?
This is an economic crisis; I think Hunt has more leeway than some think, and any Tory hopes lie in rebuilding public finances rather than a giveaways which sounds “oh so 2019”.
Probably not that many - but it's a bad look that will cost the Tories some votes (but in the can't be arsed to vote rather setting out to the booth and voting Labour way)
I reckon today's posts have illustrated the huge dilemma faced by the Tories on who should be their next leader, as Tory-leaners have oscillated wildly just in the space of a day.
This morning there was a push for Wallace, the unifying candidate. And some support for Sunak, the king from North Yorkshire. Then Hunt wowed them with his calmly reassuring statement. Then Mordaunt charged in and electrified the HoC. Then Hunt came back, with more reassurance. In the background, a few still want Boris back, and there's a segment of Badenoch backers. If PB typifies Tory support, you'll never agree on the succession. Messy.
The only consensus among those who'd like to be able to vote Tory is that Truss has to go.
I think Hunt might do something a bit outlandish in the budget as a way of trying to make the Tories look like they’re making the wealthy pay a bit more .
So is it possible we could see the top rate go up temporarily.
He needs to do something at the £50,000 and £100,000 levels where the tapers come in.
I think Hunt might do something a bit outlandish in the budget as a way of trying to make the Tories look like they’re making the wealthy pay a bit more .
So is it possible we could see the top rate go up temporarily.
He needs to do something at the £50,000 and £100,000 levels where the tapers come in.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Rejoin ref IndyRef2 PR
too many things too quickly.
If Labour has a majority it's hard to see how IndyRef2 comes into place and likewise rejoining has to be a longer term project.
The important change in the next election is to change our electoral system so that we aren't left with a 2 party system where 1 or other has the risk of being hijacked towards the extremes.
Rejoining won’t happen anytime soon and why would the EU have us given the trouble we have been.
A closer relationship is the best we can hope for.
The relationdhip we have now is fine tbh. There is a whole world to forge ties with, without all the EU bulllshit
Ah, yes, that would be why our economy is booming and our PM is respected around the world. We certainly don’t have the US President and the IMF criticising our policies, or the Indian government wanting to pull out of a trade deal because our Home Secretary insulted them.
Maybe this is daft, but are there really huge votes in maintaining the triple lock?
This is an economic crisis; I think Hunt has more leeway than some think, and any Tory hopes lie in rebuilding public finances rather than a giveaways which sounds “oh so 2019”.
Very few people understand what it is, but, yes, now would be a good time to ditch it as a formal commitment, even if the government raised pensions by inflation, which would mean no loss to pensioners for now.
Agreed. It's become an albatross round the neck. For both parties tbf. Current chaos would be a good time to get rid.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Rejoin ref IndyRef2 PR
too many things too quickly.
If Labour has a majority it's hard to see how IndyRef2 comes into place and likewise rejoining has to be a longer term project.
The important change in the next election is to change our electoral system so that we aren't left with a 2 party system where 1 or other has the risk of being hijacked towards the extremes.
Rejoining won’t happen anytime soon and why would the EU have us given the trouble we have been.
A closer relationship is the best we can hope for.
The relationdhip we have now is fine tbh. There is a whole world to forge ties with, without all the EU bulllshit
Ah, yes, that would be why our economy is booming and our PM is respected around the world. We certainly don’t have the US President and the IMF criticising our policies, or the Indian government wanting to pull out of a trade deal because our Home Secretary insulted them.
Who else's economy is "booming"?
India’s doing well. US OK. Europe is fucked, though.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Rejoin ref IndyRef2 PR
too many things too quickly.
If Labour has a majority it's hard to see how IndyRef2 comes into place and likewise rejoining has to be a longer term project.
The important change in the next election is to change our electoral system so that we aren't left with a 2 party system where 1 or other has the risk of being hijacked towards the extremes.
Nah, no chance of electoral reform if Labour have a big majority.
And that will be the last opportunity for another generation. I've been a Lib Dem member for almost 20 years and a strong believer in the importance of having a proper liberal party in politics, but if the current FPTP dynamics don't change, at some stage both the Lib Dems and Greens may have to think about jacking it in, accepting 2-party politics and joining the other 2 parties in the hope of dragging them in the right direction.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Rejoin ref IndyRef2 PR
too many things too quickly.
If Labour has a majority it's hard to see how IndyRef2 comes into place and likewise rejoining has to be a longer term project.
The important change in the next election is to change our electoral system so that we aren't left with a 2 party system where 1 or other has the risk of being hijacked towards the extremes.
Rejoining won’t happen anytime soon and why would the EU have us given the trouble we have been.
A closer relationship is the best we can hope for.
The relationdhip we have now is fine tbh. There is a whole world to forge ties with, without all the EU bulllshit
Ah, yes, that would be why our economy is booming and our PM is respected around the world. We certainly don’t have the US President and the IMF criticising our policies, or the Indian government wanting to pull out of a trade deal because our Home Secretary insulted them.
Those are all because this government are shit, not anything to do with being in or out of the EU.
Remarkably big score for the Tories – a fifth of the country claim to still support them. I hadn't realised the circus population was that large.
The local by election results of the last 3 weeks should show you the Tory vote isnt going to just dissolve. I'd expect even right now they'd get over 25% in an actual GE. There is enough fear and hatred of Labour where the Tories are the only alternative to drive nose peg voting
Even if they don't eventually do so by the time a GE rolls around, the fact that 56% of voters say they would now vote Labour is a strong indication that the "fear and hatred" of Labour is no longer the factor you believe it its be.
I think this is absolutely right. I certainly would not vote for Labour. But I no longer fear a Labour government in the way I did for the last 2 decades.
Yes. While Starmer and Reeves are utterly vacuous and likely no better than the calibre of the present Tories, they don't scare the horses. Some of the others sitting nearby, however....
To be fair that is ever the way with parties. Did anyone voting for Cameron in 2015 expect to end up with Truss in 2022? I know there were 2 GEs in between but still, the collapse of the credibility of the Tory party has been astonishing.
What was Hague thinking in 1998? That is at the heart of this. The ultimate unforced error.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Rejoin ref IndyRef2 PR
too many things too quickly.
If Labour has a majority it's hard to see how IndyRef2 comes into place and likewise rejoining has to be a longer term project.
The important change in the next election is to change our electoral system so that we aren't left with a 2 party system where 1 or other has the risk of being hijacked towards the extremes.
Rejoining won’t happen anytime soon and why would the EU have us given the trouble we have been.
A closer relationship is the best we can hope for.
The relationdhip we have now is fine tbh. There is a whole world to forge ties with, without all the EU bulllshit
Ah, yes, that would be why our economy is booming and our PM is respected around the world. We certainly don’t have the US President and the IMF criticising our policies, or the Indian government wanting to pull out of a trade deal because our Home Secretary insulted them.
Who else's economy is "booming"?
India’s doing well. US OK. Europe is fucked, though.
India is of course buying Russian oil at a discount.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Rejoin ref IndyRef2 PR
too many things too quickly.
If Labour has a majority it's hard to see how IndyRef2 comes into place and likewise rejoining has to be a longer term project.
The important change in the next election is to change our electoral system so that we aren't left with a 2 party system where 1 or other has the risk of being hijacked towards the extremes.
Rejoining won’t happen anytime soon and why would the EU have us given the trouble we have been.
A closer relationship is the best we can hope for.
The relationdhip we have now is fine tbh. There is a whole world to forge ties with, without all the EU bulllshit
Ah, yes, that would be why our economy is booming and our PM is respected around the world. We certainly don’t have the US President and the IMF criticising our policies, or the Indian government wanting to pull out of a trade deal because our Home Secretary insulted them.
Those are all because this government are shit, not anything to do with being in or out of the EU.
The government is shit because we left the EU, though.
The Tories got high on their own supply, and cults do tend to be self-immolating.
Told ya. Surely it was "go before you're pushed, PM"?
So if it was a preplanned meeting, that must mean that originally, Truss was due to miss Hunt's statement to the Commons (since it was originally going to take place an hour earlier, until the uq delayed it). I'm not sure I can believe that.
Remarkably big score for the Tories – a fifth of the country claim to still support them. I hadn't realised the circus population was that large.
The local by election results of the last 3 weeks should show you the Tory vote isnt going to just dissolve. I'd expect even right now they'd get over 25% in an actual GE. There is enough fear and hatred of Labour where the Tories are the only alternative to drive nose peg voting
Even if they don't eventually do so by the time a GE rolls around, the fact that 56% of voters say they would now vote Labour is a strong indication that the "fear and hatred" of Labour is no longer the factor you believe it its be.
I think this is absolutely right. I certainly would not vote for Labour. But I no longer fear a Labour government in the way I did for the last 2 decades.
Yes. While Starmer and Reeves are utterly vacuous and likely no better than the calibre of the present Tories, they don't scare the horses. Some of the others sitting nearby, however....
To be fair that is ever the way with parties. Did anyone voting for Cameron in 2015 expect to end up with Truss in 2022? I know there were 2 GEs in between but still, the collapse of the credibility of the Tory party has been astonishing.
What was Hague thinking in 1998? That is at the heart of this. The ultimate unforced error.
Members selecting the party leader makes sense if you are in opposition - it makes less sense if you are in Government.
Even then you never really know how things will work out until you've actually tested them.
I think Hunt might do something a bit outlandish in the budget as a way of trying to make the Tories look like they’re making the wealthy pay a bit more .
So is it possible we could see the top rate go up temporarily.
He might as well do a wealth tax. Hopefully 100% on poncey expensive shit like TSEs plimsoles or Harrods Christmas Hampers
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Bring it on. We will rout the FBPE fools once again
Don't think porkies on a bus are going to cut it this time
If you think Starmer is going to risk his whole premiership on EU membership when most people are lukewarm at best and just want the whole issue to go away for a decade then you are madder than the ERG mob.
If he has any sense he will make the case for EFTA membership and single market access. And once that happens any chance of rejoining the political aspects of the EU are dead for good.
This is why he should not be supported. Starmer now has a pathological aversion to freedom of movement because it will offend the RedWall.
Conservatives like Hunt are more likely to re-embrace the European experiment through EFTA, EEA, which may, after I am dead and buried lead to greater ties etc. The post-Brexit new guard Conservatives are worth a look.
Though I made the mistake of not mentioning it in my posting (apologies) I was actually meaning the EFTA route into the EEA which would involve freedom of movement. I think it is something he would consider - at least I hope he would. It is an elegant compromise.
I could live with that, but I suspect politically it is easier for One Nation Tories to follow your route than Labour. I am not a Conservative voter, nonetheless that would be a tempting offer from Mr Hunt. HYUFD would consider it a sell out, but I wouldn't.
I reckon today's posts have illustrated the huge dilemma faced by the Tories on who should be their next leader, as Tory-leaners have oscillated wildly just in the space of a day.
This morning there was a push for Wallace, the unifying candidate. And some support for Sunak, the king from North Yorkshire. Then Hunt wowed them with his calmly reassuring statement. Then Mordaunt charged in and electrified the HoC. Then Hunt came back, with more reassurance. In the background, a few still want Boris back, and there's a segment of Badenoch backers. If PB typifies Tory support, you'll never agree on the succession. Messy.
The only consensus among those who'd like to be able to vote Tory is that Truss has to go.
It is why they need a conclave type process - in the final reckoning a substantial majority of Tory MPs need to swing behind one candidate.
Likewise, I’m surprised that full on “rejoin” is ahead by some margin.
Hunt could indeed look for some kind of EFTA deal and I think the pushback might be less than people think, especially since migration numbers remain high.
I think quite a large proportion of the 52% wouldn't have pushed back at that back in 2016. There were never two implacable camps; there were people weighing up pros and cons. If you could have magically given Britain some sort of early noughties EU, you could have sold it to most on both sides.
Remarkably big score for the Tories – a fifth of the country claim to still support them. I hadn't realised the circus population was that large.
The local by election results of the last 3 weeks should show you the Tory vote isnt going to just dissolve. I'd expect even right now they'd get over 25% in an actual GE. There is enough fear and hatred of Labour where the Tories are the only alternative to drive nose peg voting
Even if they don't eventually do so by the time a GE rolls around, the fact that 56% of voters say they would now vote Labour is a strong indication that the "fear and hatred" of Labour is no longer the factor you believe it its be.
It is in the same way it was in 1997. The actual votes were nowhere near the years of 20% plus leads and the 'ready for govt' and Blair ratings were much better than Labour 2022. The current focus is the meltdown and chaos, Labour are the default answer to 'whom?' when the govt is falling apart. The focus of real choice will concentrate matters. Local by elections of the last month suggest both the Tories still getting better actual votes than the polling (still very much down of course) and no detectable enthusiasm for Labour commensurate with 50% plus polling. Thems the facts.
Polls swing all over the place between elections and tighten when the GE takes place. Who would have thought May ended up only 3 or 4% ahead of Corbyn?
Certainly Labour is not going to win the GE by 36 points but to suggest there is still so much fear of Labour that they won't win is dead wrong. Starmer has exorcised the Corbyn ghost, it's all down to how far the Tories can crawl out of the hole they have been digging themselves for the last 3 years.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Rejoin ref IndyRef2 PR
too many things too quickly.
If Labour has a majority it's hard to see how IndyRef2 comes into place and likewise rejoining has to be a longer term project.
The important change in the next election is to change our electoral system so that we aren't left with a 2 party system where 1 or other has the risk of being hijacked towards the extremes.
Rejoining won’t happen anytime soon and why would the EU have us given the trouble we have been.
A closer relationship is the best we can hope for.
The relationdhip we have now is fine tbh. There is a whole world to forge ties with, without all the EU bulllshit
Ah, yes, that would be why our economy is booming and our PM is respected around the world. We certainly don’t have the US President and the IMF criticising our policies, or the Indian government wanting to pull out of a trade deal because our Home Secretary insulted them.
Those are all because this government are shit, not anything to do with being in or out of the EU.
The government is shit because we left the EU, though.
The Tories got high on their own supply, and cults do tend to be self-immolating.
You could argue that the government is shit because Cameron resigned after the ref.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Bring it on. We will rout the FBPE fools once again
Don't think porkies on a bus are going to cut it this time
If you think Starmer is going to risk his whole premiership on EU membership when most people are lukewarm at best and just want the whole issue to go away for a decade then you are madder than the ERG mob.
If he has any sense he will make the case for EFTA membership and single market access. And once that happens any chance of rejoining the political aspects of the EU are dead for good.
This is why he should not be supported. Starmer now has a pathological aversion to freedom of movement because it will offend the RedWall.
Conservatives like Hunt are more likely to re-embrace the European experiment through EFTA, EEA, which may, after I am dead and buried lead to greater ties etc. The post-Brexit new guard Conservatives are worth a look.
Though I made the mistake of not mentioning it in my posting (apologies) I was actually meaning the EFTA route into the EEA which would involve freedom of movement. I think it is something he would consider - at least I hope he would. It is an elegant compromise.
I could live with that, but I suspect politically it is easier for One Nation Tories to follow your route than Labour. I am not a Conservative voter, nonetheless that would be a tempting offer from Mr Hunt. HYUFD would consider it a sell out, but I wouldn't.
Betfair suggests there are only four serious contenders whatever the rules - Sunak, Penny, Hunt and Wallace.
Even if it goes to the members it looks almost certain the MPs will put two of those four into the Final.
If anyone is worried about it being anyone unsuitable (eg Braverman), look at it this way. Only five MPs would have to switch from Truss last time to Mordaunt this time to prevent Braverman making the Final.
There is no way Braverman would get almost everyone who voted Truss last time.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Rejoin ref IndyRef2 PR
too many things too quickly.
If Labour has a majority it's hard to see how IndyRef2 comes into place and likewise rejoining has to be a longer term project.
The important change in the next election is to change our electoral system so that we aren't left with a 2 party system where 1 or other has the risk of being hijacked towards the extremes.
Rejoining won’t happen anytime soon and why would the EU have us given the trouble we have been.
A closer relationship is the best we can hope for.
The relationdhip we have now is fine tbh. There is a whole world to forge ties with, without all the EU bulllshit
Ah, yes, that would be why our economy is booming and our PM is respected around the world. We certainly don’t have the US President and the IMF criticising our policies, or the Indian government wanting to pull out of a trade deal because our Home Secretary insulted them.
Who else's economy is "booming"?
India’s doing well. US OK. Europe is fucked, though.
Take away the Dollars reserve currency status and the US would be a third world basket case economy
Remarkably big score for the Tories – a fifth of the country claim to still support them. I hadn't realised the circus population was that large.
The local by election results of the last 3 weeks should show you the Tory vote isnt going to just dissolve. I'd expect even right now they'd get over 25% in an actual GE. There is enough fear and hatred of Labour where the Tories are the only alternative to drive nose peg voting
Even if they don't eventually do so by the time a GE rolls around, the fact that 56% of voters say they would now vote Labour is a strong indication that the "fear and hatred" of Labour is no longer the factor you believe it its be.
I think this is absolutely right. I certainly would not vote for Labour. But I no longer fear a Labour government in the way I did for the last 2 decades.
Yes. While Starmer and Reeves are utterly vacuous and likely no better than the calibre of the present Tories, they don't scare the horses. Some of the others sitting nearby, however....
To be fair that is ever the way with parties. Did anyone voting for Cameron in 2015 expect to end up with Truss in 2022? I know there were 2 GEs in between but still, the collapse of the credibility of the Tory party has been astonishing.
What was Hague thinking in 1998? That is at the heart of this. The ultimate unforced error.
Members selecting the party leader makes sense if you are in opposition - it makes less sense if you are in Government.
Even then you never really know how things will work out until you've actually tested them.
Personally I think it makes no sense in any circumstance.
But I assume Hague was trying to look “down with the kids” after the fusty Major years.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Bring it on. We will rout the FBPE fools once again
You seem to be forgetting you only won by 3% in 2016 and things have changed dramatically since then.
IIRC Rejoin was 16% ahead in the last poll I saw
Rejoin is generslly ahead by single figures of late. There have been 2 large rejoin leads over 10% both by Omnisis, nobody else seems to have polled the question since to see if its an in house effect or the actual position generally. Stay out has led as recently as April. I suspect rejoin may not look as sexy a prospect after this winter.
Rejoin/Stay Out polling will be misleading for as long as it takes people to realise that rejoining on the previous terms will not be an option.
Remarkably big score for the Tories – a fifth of the country claim to still support them. I hadn't realised the circus population was that large.
The local by election results of the last 3 weeks should show you the Tory vote isnt going to just dissolve. I'd expect even right now they'd get over 25% in an actual GE. There is enough fear and hatred of Labour where the Tories are the only alternative to drive nose peg voting
Even if they don't eventually do so by the time a GE rolls around, the fact that 56% of voters say they would now vote Labour is a strong indication that the "fear and hatred" of Labour is no longer the factor you believe it its be.
It is in the same way it was in 1997. The actual votes were nowhere near the years of 20% plus leads and the 'ready for govt' and Blair ratings were much better than Labour 2022. The current focus is the meltdown and chaos, Labour are the default answer to 'whom?' when the govt is falling apart. The focus of real choice will concentrate matters. Local by elections of the last month suggest both the Tories still getting better actual votes than the polling (still very much down of course) and no detectable enthusiasm for Labour commensurate with 50% plus polling. Thems the facts.
Polls swing all over the place between elections and tighten when the GE takes place. Who would have thought May ended up only 3 or 4% ahead of Corbyn?
Certainly Labour is not going to win the GE by 36 points but to suggest there is still so much fear of Labour that they won't win is dead wrong. Starmer has exorcised the Corbyn ghost, it's all down to how far the Tories can crawl out of the hole they have been digging themselves for the last 3 years.
I didnt suggest they won't win. They will. Probably with a majority. 'The fear' prevents the ultra daft 400 seat majorities seat calculators are spitting out
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Rejoin ref IndyRef2 PR
too many things too quickly.
If Labour has a majority it's hard to see how IndyRef2 comes into place and likewise rejoining has to be a longer term project.
The important change in the next election is to change our electoral system so that we aren't left with a 2 party system where 1 or other has the risk of being hijacked towards the extremes.
Rejoining won’t happen anytime soon and why would the EU have us given the trouble we have been.
A closer relationship is the best we can hope for.
The relationdhip we have now is fine tbh. There is a whole world to forge ties with, without all the EU bulllshit
Ah, yes, that would be why our economy is booming and our PM is respected around the world. We certainly don’t have the US President and the IMF criticising our policies, or the Indian government wanting to pull out of a trade deal because our Home Secretary insulted them.
Who else's economy is "booming"?
India’s doing well. US OK. Europe is fucked, though.
Take away the Dollars reserve currency status and the US would be a third world basket case economy
OK. Got any other aunty-had-balls insight to share? Thought not.
As a Conservative I am fed up. Boris’s positives were more than offset by his pathological need to please and not be found out. I was happy with going for growth, but ud should have been done by incentives for automation to increase productivity: the tax changes at top rate may have worked if the laffer curve was true. However now we will never know because Truss didn’t try to get anyone onside before leaping into the political unknown. She’s now like Wile Coyote with her legs running in empty air over the canyon.
One thing though - the members voted for her and if the MPs really thought she was that bad they should have given us Badenoch or Morduant as an option instead. They played games thinking we would go for Sunak. However we members don’t like disloyalty. So the MPs who are now going after Truss shouldn’t expect activist support, and definitely not if they get rid of her with a coronation
I'm not at all sure that's true - it was clear during the selection of the two candidates that if Sunak were one of them, he would lose.
I know people semi interested in politics who thought Sunak would obviously win, and were surprised when I said true politics geeks knew he had no shot. It was closer than expected in the end, and pretty sure he lost to anybody though, so games playing was still possible, since who did they think he had the best chance against?
Remarkably big score for the Tories – a fifth of the country claim to still support them. I hadn't realised the circus population was that large.
The local by election results of the last 3 weeks should show you the Tory vote isnt going to just dissolve. I'd expect even right now they'd get over 25% in an actual GE. There is enough fear and hatred of Labour where the Tories are the only alternative to drive nose peg voting
Even if they don't eventually do so by the time a GE rolls around, the fact that 56% of voters say they would now vote Labour is a strong indication that the "fear and hatred" of Labour is no longer the factor you believe it its be.
I think this is absolutely right. I certainly would not vote for Labour. But I no longer fear a Labour government in the way I did for the last 2 decades.
Yes. While Starmer and Reeves are utterly vacuous and likely no better than the calibre of the present Tories, they don't scare the horses. Some of the others sitting nearby, however....
To be fair that is ever the way with parties. Did anyone voting for Cameron in 2015 expect to end up with Truss in 2022? I know there were 2 GEs in between but still, the collapse of the credibility of the Tory party has been astonishing.
What was Hague thinking in 1998? That is at the heart of this. The ultimate unforced error.
He was thinking "we have a declining membership - we need more involvement to boost it back up"
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Rejoin ref IndyRef2 PR
too many things too quickly.
If Labour has a majority it's hard to see how IndyRef2 comes into place and likewise rejoining has to be a longer term project.
The important change in the next election is to change our electoral system so that we aren't left with a 2 party system where 1 or other has the risk of being hijacked towards the extremes.
Rejoining won’t happen anytime soon and why would the EU have us given the trouble we have been.
A closer relationship is the best we can hope for.
You’d have to hope the EU would react positively- though they would need commitments around stability etc
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Rejoin ref IndyRef2 PR
too many things too quickly.
If Labour has a majority it's hard to see how IndyRef2 comes into place and likewise rejoining has to be a longer term project.
The important change in the next election is to change our electoral system so that we aren't left with a 2 party system where 1 or other has the risk of being hijacked towards the extremes.
Nah, no chance of electoral reform if Labour have a big majority.
And that will be the last opportunity for another generation. I've been a Lib Dem member for almost 20 years and a strong believer in the importance of having a proper liberal party in politics, but if the current FPTP dynamics don't change, at some stage both the Lib Dems and Greens may have to think about jacking it in, accepting 2-party politics and joining the other 2 parties in the hope of dragging them in the right direction.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Rejoin ref IndyRef2 PR
too many things too quickly.
If Labour has a majority it's hard to see how IndyRef2 comes into place and likewise rejoining has to be a longer term project.
The important change in the next election is to change our electoral system so that we aren't left with a 2 party system where 1 or other has the risk of being hijacked towards the extremes.
Rejoining won’t happen anytime soon and why would the EU have us given the trouble we have been.
A closer relationship is the best we can hope for.
The relationdhip we have now is fine tbh. There is a whole world to forge ties with, without all the EU bulllshit
Ah, yes, that would be why our economy is booming and our PM is respected around the world. We certainly don’t have the US President and the IMF criticising our policies, or the Indian government wanting to pull out of a trade deal because our Home Secretary insulted them.
Who else's economy is "booming"?
I thought Ireland was doing relatively well at the moment. Difficult to tell from growth figures as they’re still all over the place after COVID.
Comments
How long can you store charge for? Batteries can bridge the gap between dusk and dawn, but they can't really bridge the gap between All Hallows Day and Candlemas - can they?
Latest: http://bloom.bg/3D3iaL3 https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1582046481066098689/photo/1
People are not going to forget in a hurry the shambles that has engulfed this country since Johnson won his Tory majority 3 short years ago.
Liz Truss should stand aside at Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday and let Jeremy Hunt answer Sir Keir Starmer’s questions. #PMQs
11:18 AM · Oct 17, 2022
·Twitter for iPhone
NEW A meeting of the 1922 executives is now getting underway in the Palace of Westminster.
The leaership timetable is not on the agenda.
But one attendee told me: "I would not want to prejudge what they are going to decide."
More in our live blog: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/17/politics-latest-news-jeremy-hunt-budget-liz-truss/
Dropping
There could be several reasons for that. They might think that Truss is a disaster, but presume that the Tories will replace her soon (as indeed they might). They might think the Tory government is a disaster, but that Labour or whoever would be worse. They might think the Tory government is a disaster, but think their own Tory MP/candidate is good.
I can barely remember that now. I can remember the results but I honestly don't remember voting in it.
And, of course, who's to say the Rejoin campaign would be any more competent than the Remain campaign was?
He says he's "very aware of how many vulnerable pensioners there are and the importance of the triple lock" but that he is "not making any commitments on any individual policy areas".
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1582044304444649472
Mark Conrad
@markconradhack
·
59s
Well, at least today means the title of Liz Truss’ memoir is sorted:
“Not Under A Desk: My Month in Downing Street”
It should be someone who can cobble up good MP support and, while they should not be involved, is not a spit in the face of the members - so Sunak is out, as are Hunt and Zahawi etc. Kind of only leaves Penny, but she didn't exactly impress in the contest.
They tell me it was a pre-planned meeting - rather than crisis talks - but inevitable that lack of support among Tory MPs will have come up.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1582047311789555720
Solar does work through the winter too*, just not as much. But yes, fundamentally, wind and tidal help more with winter demand.
Edit: *To illustrate this, here is what our panels generated last year. December and January only c.15% of the summer months. Still worth having though.
January 2021 95.9 kWh
February 2021 184.2 kWh
March 2021 319.9 kWh
April 2021 576.2 kWh
May 2021 507.2 kWh
June 2021 521.4 kWh
July 2021 538.0 kWh
August 2021 424.6 kWh
September 2021 361.9 kWh
October 2021 244.6 kWh
November 2021 165.4 kWh
December 2021 78.5 kWh
Total 4,017.9 kWh
Poor Truss, who I was indifferent to prior to all this, won't have any respect for being ousted so soon, but also won't be respected in office with such poor numbers.
The current focus is the meltdown and chaos, Labour are the default answer to 'whom?' when the govt is falling apart.
The focus of real choice will concentrate matters.
Local by elections of the last month suggest both the Tories still getting better actual votes than the polling (still very much down of course) and no detectable enthusiasm for Labour commensurate with 50% plus polling.
Thems the facts.
IIRC Rejoin was 16% ahead in the last poll I saw
On my 2022 general election ballot (arriving in mail later this week):
City of Seattle
Proposition Nos. 1A and 1B
Proposition 1A (submitted by Initiative Petition No. 134) and Proposition 1B (alternative proposed by the City Council and Mayor) concern allowing voters to select multiple candidates in City primary elections.
Proposition 1A (Initiative 134) would allow voters in primary elections for Mayor, City Attorney, and City Council to select on the ballot as many candidates as they approve of for each office. The two candidates receiving the most votes for each office would advance to the general election, consistent with state law. The City would consult with King County to include instructions on the primary ballot such as “vote for AS MANY as you approve of” for each office.
As an alternative, the Seattle City Council and Mayor have proposed Proposition 1B (Ordinance 126625), which would allow primary election voters for Mayor, City Attorney, and City Council to rank candidates by preference. In the first round of processing, each voter’s top preference would be counted. The candidate receiving the fewest would be eliminated. Successive rounds of counting would eliminate one candidate each round, counting each voter’s top preference among remaining candidates, until two candidates remain to proceed to the general election. King County would include instructions on the ballot for voters.
1. Should either of these measures be enacted into law?
Yes
No
2. Regardless of whether you voted yes or no above, if one of these measures is enacted, which one should it be?
Proposition 1A
Proposition 1B
SSI - personally think I prefer 1A, mainly because IF we had Ranked Choice Voting, would make way more sense to do what Alaska is doing; have a Top Four primary, with winners going forward to a Ranked Choice general election.
Bear in mind that in comparing larger areas (London to NE) you're diluting the effect quite considerably because of each area contains a mix of poorer and better-off bits. In that sense, 'levelling up' was always a flawed concept if interpreted as purely about different regions.
Suspect it'll simply make the coming Tory wipeout worse mind.
Cutting those freebies isn't going to go down well.
Conservatives like Hunt are more likely to re-embrace the European experiment through EFTA, EEA, which may, after I am dead and buried lead to greater ties etc. The post-Brexit new guard Conservatives are worth a look.
Everything you believed in has been show to be utter crap.
Someone knows.
Starmer won't risk his premiership on an unnecessary reopening of the EU question. Though I do hope he will look at the less contentious issue of EFTA membership (but again think he is probably too cautious to do so)
I suspect rejoin may not look as sexy a prospect after this winter.
This is an economic crisis; I think Hunt has more leeway than some think, and any Tory hopes lie in rebuilding public finances rather than a giveaways which sounds “oh so 2019”.
So enough of the HYUFDian "we members" bollocks. I have voted tory in every GE since 1979, except 2005, and one of the preconditions of my ever doing so again is that the right to be involved in leadership decisions is limited to MPs and just possibly the National Convention, not to a lot of elderly low wattage 25 quidder windbags. You inflict IDS and Johnson and Truss on party and country, Truss apparently on the flouncily self-important and fictitious ground that you "don’t like disloyalty?" I have two words for you, of which one is off, and a helpful hint or two as to where to stick your activism.
You're right about the "zoom". As I mentioned you can have areas that have decades difference in life expectancy just 50m apart in London - usually either areas where a street of private houses is next to streets of HMOs.
It *is* staggering as you're not trying to bring up a few poor people by 3 years, you are looking at millions who are many years apart - and in terms of healthy life expectancy, multiple decades.
Hunt could indeed look for some kind of EFTA deal and I think the pushback might be less than people think, especially since migration numbers remain high.
So is it possible we could see the top rate go up temporarily.
This morning there was a push for Wallace, the unifying candidate. And some support for Sunak, the king from North Yorkshire. Then Hunt wowed them with his calmly reassuring statement. Then Mordaunt charged in and electrified the HoC. Then Hunt came back, with more reassurance. In the background, a few still want Boris back, and there's a segment of Badenoch backers. If PB typifies Tory support, you'll never agree on the succession. Messy.
The only consensus among those who'd like to be able to vote Tory is that Truss has to go.
Europe is fucked, though.
That's definitely worth an insult or two.
The Tories got high on their own supply, and cults do tend to be self-immolating.
Even then you never really know how things will work out until you've actually tested them.
There were never two implacable camps; there were people weighing up pros and cons. If you could have magically given Britain some sort of early noughties EU, you could have sold it to most on both sides.
Certainly Labour is not going to win the GE by 36 points but to suggest there is still so much fear of Labour that they won't win is dead wrong. Starmer has exorcised the Corbyn ghost, it's all down to how far the Tories can crawl out of the hole they have been digging themselves for the last 3 years.
I'll get my coat...
Even if it goes to the members it looks almost certain the MPs will put two of those four into the Final.
If anyone is worried about it being anyone unsuitable (eg Braverman), look at it this way. Only five MPs would have to switch from Truss last time to Mordaunt this time to prevent Braverman making the Final.
There is no way Braverman would get almost everyone who voted Truss last time.
But I assume Hague was trying to look “down with the kids” after the fusty Major years.
'The fear' prevents the ultra daft 400 seat majorities seat calculators are spitting out
Got any other aunty-had-balls insight to share?
Thought not.