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Has Campbell got this right – Hunt’s now PM in all but name – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594

    The Letters and Speeches of Oliver Cromwell must be a real page turner!
    More than a collection of the state papers of John Thurloe right next to it they are.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,852

    There been a mass shooting at a Russian military base in Belgorod. The Russians are blaming it on a terrorist act carried out by citizens of a CIS state.

    *there has been*

    Other rumours suggest the perpetrators were recently mobilised.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Watching Michael Palin's Himalaya on BBC4 because it's pretty much the only non-irritating thing on TV at the moment.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Absolutely fucking cracking. A photo of a dewy eyed foxy woxy because that pulls in SO much more money than a pheasanty weasanty. Just like the Children in need thing has to downplay the extent to which it distributes money to foreign chidlren and darkies.

    You are a poster child for brainless prejudice, you really are.


    This is the reality of trail hunting

    https://twitter.com/DorsetMonitor/status/1575190596087476224?s=20&t=XhAPRah99txTvcApTYcOBg
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    This is a self-proclaimed "trail hunt". The same hunt that hunted a fox through a graveyard a few years back...video taken just a few weeks ago https://twitter.com/DorsetMonitor/status/1575190596087476224?s=20&t=XhAPRah99txTvcApTYcOBg

    Yes, well, hounds bred to hunt the fox for 100 x generations are occasionally going to depart from the artificial trail, innit?

    Really: choose misdirected class hatred, or get a life. One or the other.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Eabhal said:

    I just enjoyed the image. I thought it was funny because the general image people have of fox hunting is posh people chasing poor Mr Fox around with their gardeners/cleaners helping out. Not doing a great job at dispelling that.
    There's also a bit of nominative determinism in Mr Hunt being in favour of fox-hunting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,059
    edited October 2022
    kle4 said:

    Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
    Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981



    This is the reality of trail hunting

    https://twitter.com/DorsetMonitor/status/1575190596087476224?s=20&t=XhAPRah99txTvcApTYcOBg
    Wotevah
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,482
    Mid evening all :)

    I'm aware my earlier post fell somewhat short of my usual high standards for which I apologise.

    I now realise Harold MacMillan sacked two Chancellors - Peter Thorneycroft in 1958 and Selwyn Lloyd in 1962 so Liz Truss still has some ground to make up.

    As for other Chancellors who were encouraged to stand aside - Callaghan went to the Home Office after devaluation, Howe was reshuffled after the 1983 win - Lawson resigned so the next Chancellor to be sacked would be Norman Lamont.

    Hammond, Javid, Sunak and Zahawi all resigned to one extent or another so the next to be sacked would be Kwarteng.

    It's also worth mentioning while Fontwell has its appeal, I much prefer Plumpton simply because it's easier to get to for those of us travelling by rail.

    Few other snippets - can anyone remember the last time the People's Party was third in an Austrian opinion poll? The collapse of the lead centre-right mirrors that of the British Conservatives and they trail the Social Democrats and the revitalised Freedom Party.

    In Denmark, the latest Voxmeter has the centre-left bloc six points up but the latest Gallup has the lead at just 3.5% but that's a step forward from the last Gallup poll which had a statistical dead heat between the two blocs.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    Andy_JS said:

    Watching Michael Palin's Himalaya on BBC4 because it's pretty much the only non-irritating thing on TV at the moment.

    I do like Michael Palin. He must have the patience of a saint to have worked with John Cleese.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Watching Michael Palin's Himalaya on BBC4 because it's pretty much the only non-irritating thing on TV at the moment.

    Why not watch YouTube ?

    YouTube and wikipedia are great examples of how things can have a great effect on quality of life while not affecting GDP much.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    ydoethur said:

    Cromwell? boring?

    I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken.
    Cromwell was an enormously complicated and interesting man, and Charles I was pretty much the present Duke of York if he had become king.
  • HYUFD said:

    Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical
    I think Farage has retired hasn't he from electoral politics? i think he likes his new job as broadcaster . I voted remain but think Farage is highly effective in most things he does - his broadcasting is good as well - Talking Pints for instance gets guests across the political and establishment spectrum and his What the Farage section gives him a chance to sound honest .
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    Carnyx said:

    There's also a bit of nominative determinism in Mr Hunt being in favour of fox-hunting.
    Like Ms Truss perhaps.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,581

    Lucky for you, I’m still wide awake and drinking. 😵‍💫

    Your post is just spin - you actually agree with my central point, that I’m right because you have to, but saying I’m wrong all over the place.

    If Labour had held a budget the same day, without the tax cutting, I’m arguing what you call a Trusster fuck would still have happened. It would be a Starmerfuck. Because the fundamentals in the economy, the maxxed out credit card, cannot handle the quarter of a trillion extra for Energy hand outs, not simply the fundamental maths of it making the loan/borrowing risk - the markets don’t see a need for us to use this particular scheme.
    So when you break it down,
    The gilty graph has been on upward trajectory all year - fact
    if the mini budget is completely reversed the gilty trajectory will still be an upward trajectory, not downward - fact
    thus proving conclusively the idea Truss Kwasi budget crashed the economy is a myth, a myth peddled by Labour and their friends in the media and also mouthed by people who can’t think for themselves, the aim being to create a polling crash - because with just what the markets are doing without a polling crash, Kwarteng would still be there. Fact.

    What we actually need to hear from Labour if they think they can form a government on Monday morning - why is the borrowing cost on an upward trajectory all year, long before the mini budget came along, and what policy do they have to put it on downward trajectory?

    Hint. The answer is Labour are clueless on this, as Starmer agreed with Truss quarter of a billion of unnecessary further borrowing in the trap he fell into in last weeks PMQs.

    and that I am without doubt winning this argument.
    This is very annoying, because I kind of half agree with your point about the energy price guarantee, but if I admit that then you'll tell me you're 1000% winning the argument or something similar. :smile:

    So, as I'm the sober one here, I'll attempt a compronise...
    - The fundamentals in the economy are a lot less 'fundamental' than you are arguing. Yeah, we are borrowing too much. But an astute politician could have presented something like the energy price guarantee with lots of reassuring noises and 'look over here' distraction tactics to sustain market confidence (e.g. an OBR forecast that suggested a reassuring medium-term picture). Perhaps the market reassurance would only have been for a period of time, but still.
    - It took political idiocy to try to get markets to take the strain of another big spending commitment (the energy price guarantee) whilst also refusing to do any of the reassuring noises or distraction tactics - in fact to do the opposite of simultaneously throwing any appearance of fiscal responsibility to the winds.
    - I agree it is possible that the energy price guarantee would have been the straw that breaks the camel's back regardless of the political window-dressing, but looking at e.g. debt-to-GDP ratios of major economies, it is very hard to argue that this moment, right now, is the moment when the UK's spending commitments become unaffordable.
    - And what happened after the budget was in no way simply a polling crash. Mortgage rates are the biggest real impact, but the pension funds are close behind.

    Hmm...not sure that compromise will satisfy you, and I'm off to bed (I know, I know, it's before 9pm. That's my life with a two-year old and a pregnant wife) but this has been fun. Thanks.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    kle4 said:

    Fair point. But still think members voting has been a bad thing.

    Ridiculous to scapegoat Conservative members - at the most generous estimate, just 128 MPs voted for candidates offering a radically different economic strategy than Liz Truss. She was the chosen candidate of the previous PM and the Daily Mail.

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1581257845340635138?cxt=HHwWhICgnb3o4PErAAAA

    She was the chosen candidate of:

    Boris Johnson
    The ERG
    The Daily Mail
    The Daily Express
    The Daily Telegraph
    GB News
    Patrick Minford
    BartyBobbins
    Radio Broadmoor

    They all need to get in the sea.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    kle4 said:

    Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
    Grifters gonna grift.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    HYUFD said:

    Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
    In which case he would lose badly.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    edited October 2022

    I do like Michael Palin. He must have the patience of a saint to have worked with John Cleese.
    saw him on his current theatre tour at Nottingham the other week (An evening with Michael Palin) - the biggest laugh from the Nottingham audience was when he said his wife tried to persuade him not to go to Iraq as it was too dangerous and he said "listen darling I have spent one Christmas in Derby!"

    HE did then go on to say he was at Derby next week and would reciprocate his joke
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607

    I do like Michael Palin. He must have the patience of a saint to have worked with John Cleese.
    We’ve all worked with people who we’ve respected professionally but have disagreed with politically.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cromwell was an enormously complicated and interesting man, and Charles I was pretty much the present Duke of York if he had become king.
    Good heavens above. What an unfair comment.

    Charles I was an admirable family man, and while his wife may have been not quite 16 when they married there was nothing unusual about that in the 17th century.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,059

    In which case he would lose badly.
    Would he? About a quarter to a third of the electorate at least would vote for just such a populist right agenda.

    He might not win but he could come second
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594

    She was the chosen candidate of:

    Boris Johnson
    The ERG
    The Daily Mail
    The Daily Express
    The Daily Telegraph
    GB News
    Patrick Minford
    BartyBobbins
    Radio Broadmoor

    They all need to get in the sea.
    Judging by the votes for the other candidates, I suspect she would have gotten the most MP support, had the third place been reallocated.

    Honestly if they want a small tweak without cutting out the members that might be something worth doing. It probably wouldn't affect the members too much, but if, say, 90% of Truss's support had gone to Rishi, so he was more than 100 ahead of her, perhaps it would influence them to some degree by making the MP choice unambiguous.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cromwell was an enormously complicated and interesting man, and Charles I was pretty much the present Duke of York if he had become king.
    Whilst I agree on Cromwell, seems a bit harsh on Charles. Inadequate as king, and the only man besides HYUFD to believe so strongly in the divine right of kings, to tragic effect, but on a personal level?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    edited October 2022

    Lucky for you, I’m still wide awake and drinking. 😵‍💫

    Your post is just spin - you actually agree with my central point, that I’m right because you have to, but saying I’m wrong all over the place.

    If Labour had held a budget the same day, without the tax cutting, I’m arguing what you call a Trusster fuck would still have happened. It would be a Starmerfuck. Because the fundamentals in the economy, the maxxed out credit card, cannot handle the quarter of a trillion extra for Energy hand outs, not simply the fundamental maths of it making the loan/borrowing risk - the markets don’t see a need for us to use this particular scheme.
    So when you break it down,
    The gilty graph has been on upward trajectory all year - fact
    if the mini budget is completely reversed the gilty trajectory will still be an upward trajectory, not downward - fact
    thus proving conclusively the idea Truss Kwasi budget crashed the economy is a myth, a myth peddled by Labour and their friends in the media and also mouthed by people who can’t think for themselves, the aim being to create a polling crash - because with just what the markets are doing without a polling crash, Kwarteng would still be there. Fact.

    What we actually need to hear from Labour if they think they can form a government on Monday morning - why is the borrowing cost on an upward trajectory all year, long before the mini budget came along, and what policy do they have to put it on downward trajectory?

    Hint. The answer is Labour are clueless on this, as Starmer agreed with Truss quarter of a billion of unnecessary further borrowing in the trap he fell into in last weeks PMQs.

    and that I am without doubt winning this argument.
    Where are ya? Have you gone to bed to sleep it off?

    I thought you were going to engage with my argument knock it over and put me right

    That didn’t last long. It was like flicking an ant off my bare skin whilst sunbathing in the park.

    We both agree a fire was already going.

    We both agree What you refer to as a “cluster fuck” is a fire going which gasoline was poured onto.

    What you need to agree, because it’s fact, The gasoline to cause clusterfuck was in large part quarter of a trillion loan for energy handout, and small part the net minus thirteen billion budget redistributing wealth from workers to owners, owners with ideas and ambition but not the capital to match hence no growth in economy.
    (Net-13bn from 45bn cuts minus 2bn uturn minus 30bn stealth tax)

    Labour unlikely to have done the 45bn tax change budget, but they do believe in the up to quarter of a trillion of borrowing at new expensive rates (minus a small percentage for windfall tax and a small percentage for other tax rises, but tax rising is limited due to the politically maxxed out level of tax burden already) for a wrong headed and ruinous system of handouts - my argument, which is a winning argument, it’s known as a Trussrerfuck only because she was PM not Loto, whilst Starmer’s budget would also have poured a lot of gasoline on the fire with similar result, and it would have been known as the Starmerfuck. And LOTO Truss with her libertarian ethos would now be riding high in the polling.

    What bit of that is not fact?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,059

    I think Farage has retired hasn't he from electoral politics? i think he likes his new job as broadcaster . I voted remain but think Farage is highly effective in most things he does - his broadcasting is good as well - Talking Pints for instance gets guests across the political and establishment spectrum and his What the Farage section gives him a chance to sound honest .
    For now but he absolutely despises Hunt, he almost certainly would run against him as he sees him as as much a part of the elitist Remainer corporatist elite as Starmer.

    This was his tweet yesterday

    '@Nigel_Farage
    ·
    Oct 14
    I have it on good authority that @Jeremy_Hunt on the Eurostar from Brussels this morning en route to become Chancellor.

    Had he taken any instructions?'
  • stodge said:

    Mid evening all :)

    I'm aware my earlier post fell somewhat short of my usual high standards for which I apologise.

    I now realise Harold MacMillan sacked two Chancellors - Peter Thorneycroft in 1958 and Selwyn Lloyd in 1962 so Liz Truss still has some ground to make up.

    As for other Chancellors who were encouraged to stand aside - Callaghan went to the Home Office after devaluation, Howe was reshuffled after the 1983 win - Lawson resigned so the next Chancellor to be sacked would be Norman Lamont.

    Hammond, Javid, Sunak and Zahawi all resigned to one extent or another so the next to be sacked would be Kwarteng.

    It's also worth mentioning while Fontwell has its appeal, I much prefer Plumpton simply because it's easier to get to for those of us travelling by rail.

    Few other snippets - can anyone remember the last time the People's Party was third in an Austrian opinion poll? The collapse of the lead centre-right mirrors that of the British Conservatives and they trail the Social Democrats and the revitalised Freedom Party.

    In Denmark, the latest Voxmeter has the centre-left bloc six points up but the latest Gallup has the lead at just 3.5% but that's a step forward from the last Gallup poll which had a statistical dead heat between the two blocs.

    stodge said:

    Mid evening all :)

    I'm aware my earlier post fell somewhat short of my usual high standards for which I apologise.

    I now realise Harold MacMillan sacked two Chancellors - Peter Thorneycroft in 1958 and Selwyn Lloyd in 1962 so Liz Truss still has some ground to make up.

    As for other Chancellors who were encouraged to stand aside - Callaghan went to the Home Office after devaluation, Howe was reshuffled after the 1983 win - Lawson resigned so the next Chancellor to be sacked would be Norman Lamont.

    Hammond, Javid, Sunak and Zahawi all resigned to one extent or another so the next to be sacked would be Kwarteng.

    It's also worth mentioning while Fontwell has its appeal, I much prefer Plumpton simply because it's easier to get to for those of us travelling by rail.

    Few other snippets - can anyone remember the last time the People's Party was third in an Austrian opinion poll? The collapse of the lead centre-right mirrors that of the British Conservatives and they trail the Social Democrats and the revitalised Freedom Party.

    In Denmark, the latest Voxmeter has the centre-left bloc six points up but the latest Gallup has the lead at just 3.5% but that's a step forward from the last Gallup poll which had a statistical dead heat between the two blocs.

    But Thorneycroft was not sacked.
  • HYUFD said:

    Would he? About a quarter to a third of the electorate at least would vote for just such a populist right agenda.

    He might not win but he could come second
    In FPTP, 25-30% doesn't get you far, unless it is pretty lumpy.

    What he could do is kick the Conservative party into the grave they have dug for themselves.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    HYUFD said:

    Would he? About a quarter to a third of the electorate at least would vote for just such a populist right agenda.

    He might not win but he could come second
    Definition of second - first loser.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    kle4 said:

    Whilst I agree on Cromwell, seems a bit harsh on Charles. Inadequate as king, and the only man besides HYUFD to believe so strongly in the divine right of kings, to tragic effect, but on a personal level?
    My take, which you all possibly disagree with me but I am right all the same, Cromwell wanting the king to live, the king wanted the king executed.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607

    saw him on his current theatre tour at Nottingham the other week (An evening with Michael Palin) - the biggest laugh from the Nottingham audience was when he said his wife tried to persuade him not to go to Iraq as it was too dangerous and he said "listen darling I have spent one Christmas in Derby!"

    HE did then go on to say he was at Derby next week and would reciprocate his joke
    Derby?!! How have the mighty fallen!
  • ydoethur said:

    Major would have come within the comprehensive era, although I'm not sure how many there were in London at the time. Not the others.

    Wasn't Brown technically at a comp as well, albeit in the fast stream of it?
    Not really the case for John Major. He was born in 1943 so would have left school between 1959 and 1961. Though there were some early examples of Comprehensives in the 50s, the main drive was in the mid 60s so well after Major had left school.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073

    But Thorneycroft was not sacked.
    I sense another Stodge U Turn coming. He’ll get there.

    What a week for U Turns!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,059
    edited October 2022

    In FPTP, 25-30% doesn't get you far, unless it is pretty lumpy.

    What he could do is kick the Conservative party into the grave they have dug for themselves.
    It could get him 50-100 seats, 100-200 if he got to 30%. That would then be curtains for the Tories under Hunt yes. Assuming Starmer Labour got 40%+ then the Hunt led Tories would be down to about 10-15%, they would be lucky to get more than a handful of seats at most
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    We’ve all worked with people who we’ve respected professionally but have disagreed with politically.
    I wasn't thinking of politics, more his rudeness.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    edited October 2022
    Farage isn’t going to win anything like 30% of the vote in a general election, even up against a candidate like Hunt. His best bet would be as a spoiler party making the difference in a few constituencies.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    kle4 said:

    Whilst I agree on Cromwell, seems a bit harsh on Charles. Inadequate as king, and the only man besides HYUFD to believe so strongly in the divine right of kings, to tragic effect, but on a personal level?
    You ma6 be right, but It’s a bit soon to know whether he will be inadequate as king. Who knows, he may use his divine right to sack Truss and behead HYUFD.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,937
    “CIS country”. Belarus perhaps?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,482



    But Thorneycroft was not sacked.
    So it would seem - the fact remains MacMillan had four Chancellors in his tenure - Thorneycroft, Heathcote-Amory, Lloyd and Maudling..

    Johnson went through three - Javid, Sunak and Zahawi.

    Attlee had three - Dalton, Cripps and Gaitskell.

    In all her long tenure, Thatcher only had three Chancellors - Howe, Lawson and Major.

    Blair had just one, so did Cameron.

    Truss is already on her second.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I hadn't previously recognised what an utter jerk you are, thanks for clarifying. I have got lots of money, mainly thanks to some "cotton merchant" hur hur ancestors. I feel terrible about it. Genuinely. But this has zero to do with foxhunting. Here's a clue: in the days of foxhunting, I used to hunt with my cleaner and with someone who was on the tills in Tescos. When I shoot grouse and pheasant, I do not find people like that next to me.
    Who does your loading, then?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    HYUFD said:

    It could get him 50-100 seats, 100-200 if he got to 30%. That would then be curtains for the Tories under Hunt yes. Assuming Starmer Labour got 40%+ then the Hunt led Tories would be down to about 10-15%, they would be lucky to get more than a handful of seats at most
    Starmer’s wettest dreams must include Farage being leader of the opposition.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,581

    Where are ya? Have you gone to bed to sleep it off?

    I thought you were going to engage with my argument knock it over and put me right

    That didn’t last long. It was like flicking an ant off my bare skin whilst sunbathing in the park.

    We both agree a fire was already going.



    We both agree What you refer to as a “cluster fuck” is a fire going which gasoline was poured onto.

    What you need to agree, because it’s fact, The gasoline to cause clusterfuck was in large part quarter of a trillion loan for energy handout, and small part the net minus thirteen billion budget redistributing wealth from workers to owners, owners with ideas and ambition but not the capital to match hence no growth in economy.
    (Net-13bn from 45bn cuts minus 2bn uturn minus 30bn stealth tax)

    Labour unlikely to have done the 45bn tax change budget, but they do believe in the up to quarter of a trillion of borrowing at new expensive rates (minus a small percentage for windfall tax and a small percentage for other tax rises, but tax rising is limited due to the politically maxxed out level of tax burden already) for a wrong headed and ruinous system of handouts - my argument, which is a winning argument, it’s known as a Trussrerfuck only because she was PM not Loto, whilst Starmer’s budget would also have poured a lot of gasoline on the fire with similar result, and it would have been known as the Starmerfuck. And LOTO Truss with her libertarian ethos would now be riding high in the polling.

    What bit of that is not fact?
    Sorry to miss this, I was busy writing an unanswerably awesome riposte to your previous post.

    And going to bed. Sorry.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    Pheasant shooting?

    Ah, you mean the humane harvesting of organic free range produce.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    HYUFD said:

    For now but he absolutely despises Hunt, he almost certainly would run against him as he sees him as as much a part of the elitist Remainer corporatist elite as Starmer.

    This was his tweet yesterday

    '@Nigel_Farage
    ·
    Oct 14
    I have it on good authority that @Jeremy_Hunt on the Eurostar from Brussels this morning en route to become Chancellor.

    Had he taken any instructions?'
    Jesus Christ, I think even our erstwhile EU overlords can programme their minions over the phone thesedays.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    rcs1000 said:

    Who does your loading, then?
    Never shot with a loader. I am a pleb.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    Carnyx said:

    There's also a bit of nominative determinism in Mr Hunt being in favour of fox-hunting.
    There's a PGA golf coach called Simon Shanks.

    Hopefully that's the opposite of nominative determinism.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    maxh said:

    Sorry to miss this, I was busy writing an unanswerably awesome riposte to your previous post.

    And going to bed. Sorry.
    Off you go. Scuttle away. Least you know when your beaten.

    Anyone else want to take my argument on. Who wants some? 😈
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,059
    edited October 2022

    Farage isn’t going to win anything like 30% of the vote in a general election, even up against a candidate like Hunt. His best bet would be as a spoiler party making the difference in a few constituencies.

    The 2019 Spring polls had Farage's party on 20 - 25% in some of them and Hunt would be May 2 just with higher taxes now and spending cuts. Most of the voters who voted for Boris at the last general election are hardly going to be desperate to vote for the man who lost the leadership contest to Boris and would have been imposed on the Tories by coronation after Boris was removed.

    I expect Labour would win but there is certainly a scenario where Farage could take second place from Hunt
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    In FPTP, 25-30% doesn't get you far, unless it is pretty lumpy.

    What he could do is kick the Conservative party into the grave they have dug for themselves.
    There's something peculiar happens around the 25% mark. The number of seats gained with 30% absolutely dwarfs the number with 20%.
    Hence the quite stunningly low seat projections for the Tories on low twenties polling recently.
    Whereas Labour in 1983 and the Tories in 1997 had 200 and 160 odd whilst hovering around 30%.
  • stodge said:

    So it would seem - the fact remains MacMillan had four Chancellors in his tenure - Thorneycroft, Heathcote-Amory, Lloyd and Maudling..

    Johnson went through three - Javid, Sunak and Zahawi.

    Attlee had three - Dalton, Cripps and Gaitskell.

    In all her long tenure, Thatcher only had three Chancellors - Howe, Lawson and Major.

    Blair had just one, so did Cameron.

    Truss is already on her second.
    What would Gladstone say? My guess is (not) "WTF?!?"
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Farage has never won shit, and he’s certainly not gonna win shit now.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    It is impossible not to like Michael Palin.
    That would be like defying gravity. It is a Law of the Universe.
  • Thanks! But personally doubt THAT was what the folks who called the Röhm purge the Night of the Long Knives were thinking about.

    My own guess is, they were conjuring up the St Bartholomew's Day Massacre (with apologies to Barty). And also, maybe, the Sicilian Vespers.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Bartholomew's_Day_massacre

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sicilian_Vespers
    I went off down a rabbit hole.

    'But the German debacle was not the first to which long knives was applied. Back in the fifth century, Hengist and his Saxon forces, who had invaded Britain, invited the British King Vortigern and his entourage to a peace conference, and at a given signal the Saxons drew their swords and massacred the Britons: at least, according to Geoffrey of Monmouth’s semi-legendary History of the Britons. This slaughter became known as the treachery, plot, or treason of the long knives: first recorded in English in about 1604, but in Welsh (twyll y cyllyll hirion), in or before 1587. The long knives referred to were probably the short swords or saxes (Old English seax) which were drawn at the command (as Geoffrey gives it) ‘Nemet oure saxas’.'

    https://public.oed.com/blog/june-2016-update-release-notes-the-long-knife/

    I wouldn't be surprised if the etymolgy of long knives had some connection with Native Americans/Red Indians (no offence) for AH and co, Germany seemed particularly entranced with the Wild West & associated movies and potboilers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,059

    Farage has never won shit, and he’s certainly not gonna win shit now.

    He won the national vote and most seats in the 2014 and 2019 European elections
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    kyf_100 said:

    I believe all countries are cis countries, except transylvania.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WKleXdtsq8
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    dixiedean said:

    There's something peculiar happens around the 25% mark. The number of seats gained with 30% absolutely dwarfs the number with 20%.
    Hence the quite stunningly low seat projections for the Tories on low twenties polling recently.
    Whereas Labour in 1983 and the Tories in 1997 had 200 and 160 odd whilst hovering around 30%.
    Yes, at their highest UKIP were tantalisingly close to breaking through in a number of areas, but didn't quite get there. Whereas the Green strategy has always been very different, focusing on a few areas only rather than a mass breakthrough.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    edited October 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Who does your loading, then?
    Although I should be against shooting (Scottish Nationalist, centre left) I thoroughly enjoyed the grouse I had for lunch yesterday. The Elk’s Head, Whitfield, Northumberland, if the mods don’t mind the recommendation.
  • dixiedean said:

    There's something peculiar happens around the 25% mark. The number of seats gained with 30% absolutely dwarfs the number with 20%.
    Hence the quite stunningly low seat projections for the Tories on low twenties polling recently.
    Whereas Labour in 1983 and the Tories in 1997 had 200 and 160 odd whilst hovering around 30%.
    Demographic changes re: seat distributions?

    And/or fact that Tories are currently (and for foreseeable future) are getting hammered in Red Wall AND Blue Wall, at both ends so to speak?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    TimS said:

    “CIS country”. Belarus perhaps?

    Tajikistan is the rumour - "religious differences" are cited.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,482
    Hunt's comments about tax rises and spending cuts at least have the smack of cold hard reality about them.

    Which taxes will rise and where the spending cuts will fall are of course going to be the real issues between now and the end of the month.

    Given it seems impossible politically to cut defence or NHS spending, it would seem local Government will again take the hit but as to raising taxes, not quite sure what Hunt has in mind or where. Seems politically impossible to for example raise VAT or fuel duty - will we see the 1p tax cut in the Kwarteng Budget reversed to put the final nail in the coffin of Trussonomics?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    If you approve of current Conservative policies, vote UKIP or REFUK.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    dixiedean said:

    It is impossible not to like Michael Palin.
    That would be like defying gravity. It is a Law of the Universe.

    He was adorable as Molotov in The Death of Stalin.
  • kyf_100 said:

    I believe all countries are cis countries, except transylvania.
    And Transkei (when it existed in Apartheid SA).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548

    Although I should be against shooting (Scottish Nationalist, centre left) I thoroughly enjoyed the grouse I had for lunch yesterday. The Elk’s Head, Whitfield, Northumberland, if the mods don’t mind the recommendation.
    So, as a Scottish nationalist of the centre left, you enjoy a good grouse?

    Well, who are the rest of us to argue with that?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    stodge said:

    Hunt's comments about tax rises and spending cuts at least have the smack of cold hard reality about them.

    Which taxes will rise and where the spending cuts will fall are of course going to be the real issues between now and the end of the month.

    Given it seems impossible politically to cut defence or NHS spending, it would seem local Government will again take the hit but as to raising taxes, not quite sure what Hunt has in mind or where. Seems politically impossible to for example raise VAT or fuel duty - will we see the 1p tax cut in the Kwarteng Budget reversed to put the final nail in the coffin of Trussonomics?

    Defence and health won't be cut, welfare they might like to cut but might not be able to, and as you say not much you can raise. So not sure what else significant can be cut, since 'efficiencies' won't get much.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Never shot with a loader. I am a pleb.
    You use an AK-47 or an L1A1?
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,581

    Off you go. Scuttle away. Least you know when your beaten.

    Anyone else want to take my argument on. Who wants some? 😈
    Given that you haven’t responded to my unanswerable reply, I must indeed conclude that it is, in fact, unanswerable.
  • I went off down a rabbit hole.

    'But the German debacle was not the first to which long knives was applied. Back in the fifth century, Hengist and his Saxon forces, who had invaded Britain, invited the British King Vortigern and his entourage to a peace conference, and at a given signal the Saxons drew their swords and massacred the Britons: at least, according to Geoffrey of Monmouth’s semi-legendary History of the Britons. This slaughter became known as the treachery, plot, or treason of the long knives: first recorded in English in about 1604, but in Welsh (twyll y cyllyll hirion), in or before 1587. The long knives referred to were probably the short swords or saxes (Old English seax) which were drawn at the command (as Geoffrey gives it) ‘Nemet oure saxas’.'

    https://public.oed.com/blog/june-2016-update-release-notes-the-long-knife/

    I wouldn't be surprised if the etymolgy of long knives had some connection with Native Americans/Red Indians (no offence) for AH and co, Germany seemed particularly entranced with the Wild West & associated movies and potboilers.
    Before firearms, killings with knives, long or short, single or multiple, common, if not exactly commonplace.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,132
    kle4 said:

    Ok, we've established colour coding is of the devil

    What's wrong with this?


  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    kle4 said:

    Defence and health won't be cut, welfare they might like to cut but might not be able to, and as you say not much you can raise. So not sure what else significant can be cut, since 'efficiencies' won't get much.
    They’ll find out how much they have to cut when the bond market opens on Monday.

    By Wednesday things will be clear.

    Everything Hunt has said so far is directly aimed at Gilt traders. If yields reduce, then cuts will be moderate. If they rise, they’ll be severe. He’s using the press to signal all sorts of cuts and tax rises this weekend. Whether they actually get implemented depends, as I said, on the bond market next week.

    Thats the terrifying truth about how politics works, right now.
  • kinabalu said:

    There's a PGA golf coach called Simon Shanks.

    Hopefully that's the opposite of nominative determinism.
    Chris Moneymaker won the World series of Poker one year
  • Apparently the Sunday Times is reporting that the cut in the 20% standard rate is to be postponed.

    What about the stamp duty changes ?

    Or do the financial institutions not mind tax cuts as long as they are subsidising property prices.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    Scott_xP said:

    What's wrong with this?


    *shudder*
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    stodge said:

    Hunt's comments about tax rises and spending cuts at least have the smack of cold hard reality about them.

    Which taxes will rise and where the spending cuts will fall are of course going to be the real issues between now and the end of the month.

    Given it seems impossible politically to cut defence or NHS spending, it would seem local Government will again take the hit but as to raising taxes, not quite sure what Hunt has in mind or where. Seems politically impossible to for example raise VAT or fuel duty - will we see the 1p tax cut in the Kwarteng Budget reversed to put the final nail in the coffin of Trussonomics?

    Why not a policy to pay 10% of your treatment? If you can’t afford to pay £2,000 towards a new hip or £10,000 towards cancer treatment, you don’t deserve to live, sucker. (c) Tory thinking.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,482
    kle4 said:

    Defence and health won't be cut, welfare they might like to cut but might not be able to, and as you say not much you can raise. So not sure what else significant can be cut, since 'efficiencies' won't get much.
    To be fair, Hunt was completely non-committal this morning and wouldn't rule out cuts to either the NHS or defence spending.

    Cutting the NHS and defence would be "courageous" as Sir Humphrey would put it. There's also the thorny question of raising benefits in line with inflation to which again Hunt wouldn't make a commitment.

    We've already seen a publicly unpopular budget destroyed politically - will we now see a politically unpopular Budget destroyed publicly by Conservative backbenchers terrified of seeing their majorities evaporate?

  • HYUFD said:

    It could get him 50-100 seats, 100-200 if he got to 30%. That would then be curtains for the Tories under Hunt yes. Assuming Starmer Labour got 40%+ then the Hunt led Tories would be down to about 10-15%, they would be lucky to get more than a handful of seats at most
    You are living in a fantasy world and seem to want the conservative party to be extinguished
  • Carnyx said:

    You use an AK-47 or an L1A1?
    I happened to be passing through the vibrant mutlcultural neighbourhood (I'm being unironic for the avoidance of doubt) of Govanhill a couple of days ago and noticed a Shisha shop had a shisha pipe in the shape of a life size AK-47 in the widow. I considered asking the owner if I could take a pic of it but he might have thought I was some rsole hack trying to make a story - 'Days after Irish women sing song praising the terrorist IRA at Hampden, less than a mile away shop in immigrant hellhole glorifies the weapon of Jihad in window'.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    Jesus...how can you even begin to comment from a background of such ignorance on the matter. Fact 1: fox hunting never stopped...it's as prevalent now as it was pre-ban. Hunts continue to kill dozens of foxes each season. Fact 2: foxes are not being gassed...it's been illegal for decades and the penalties are draconian. Foxes are being shot just as they were shot pre-ban. Fact 3: go to any hunt now and there is no shortage of foxes. Fact 4: foxes are not and never have been "designated pests"
    If they aren't pests how come they are being shot left, right and Chelsea all over the place.

    Dick brain.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    edited October 2022
    kle4 said:

    *shudder*
    It’s not good enough just to arrange your books by colour if you can’t make the effort to arrange then by order of size.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    I have been taking a nap. Is Ms Truss still PM?

    https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,132
    I don't know if Truss will survive the week, but her CoS should be out on Monday

    🔺 EXCLUSIVE: The Downing Street chief of staff lobbied ministers including Liz Truss for a politician he falsely claimed was Libya’s “legitimate prime minister” as part of a paid campaign to change UK foreign policy
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mark-fullbrookmark-fullbrook-liz-truss-chief-of-staff-lobbying-libya-9r657ccbt?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1665854109-1
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    edited October 2022
    dixiedean said:

    It is impossible not to like Michael Palin.
    That would be like defying gravity. It is a Law of the Universe.

    Yes that law also applies imho to

    Colin Jackson
    Michael Johnson
    Jessica Ennis (must be something about athletics)
    Hannah Fry
    Lucy Worsley
    Ken Clarke
    Bumble
    Peter Kay
    David Beckham
    Kate Bush

    Would be a fun dinner party
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,132
    Meanwhile...

    Your eyes do not deceive you - this really is the Daily Telegraph https://twitter.com/PascalLTH/status/1581304429193572352/photo/1

    From @JeremyWarnerUK in @Telegraph - Brexit has been even worse than predicted - hit the economy even more severely than so-called Project Fear. https://twitter.com/jeremywarneruk/status/1581330560571801602
  • HYUFD said:

    He won the national vote and most seats in the 2014 and 2019 European elections
    You have suddenly become an apologist for Farage but it really has been there for all to see in your posts over the last months as you see the marginalisation of the little Englander cult

    It is ironic that you are following the same doomed path as Corbynites
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    rcs1000 said:

    Who does your loading, then?
    ?? There is a huge market in cartridge belts in case you hadn't noticed or deep pockets on your Barbour. Loading is something out of Downton.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    ydoethur said:

    So, as a Scottish nationalist of the centre left, you enjoy a good grouse?

    Well, who are the rest of us to argue with that?
    That made me laugh even more than your puns!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,132
    Government appears to have a death wish https://twitter.com/NursingNotesUK/status/1580814595576324097
  • HYUFD said:

    The 2019 Spring polls had Farage's party on 20 - 25% in some of them and Hunt would be May 2 just with higher taxes now and spending cuts. Most of the voters who voted for Boris at the last general election are hardly going to be desperate to vote for the man who lost the leadership contest to Boris and would have been imposed on the Tories by coronation after Boris was removed.

    I expect Labour would win but there is certainly a scenario where Farage could take second place from Hunt
    HYUFD said:

    The 2019 Spring polls had Farage's party on 20 - 25% in some of them and Hunt would be May 2 just with higher taxes now and spending cuts. Most of the voters who voted for Boris at the last general election are hardly going to be desperate to vote for the man who lost the leadership contest to Boris and would have been imposed on the Tories by coronation after Boris was removed.

    The 2019 Spring polls were at the peak of Brexit paralysis and the Brexit party success at the EU elections. No way that those poll ratings would have been translated into such support at any General Election . The Peterborough by election held just a few days after the Brexit party success highlighted that very well. It was pretty universally expected that Labour would lose that seat to the Brexit party - given the added burden it then carried from the Fiona Onasanya scandal - yet it did not happen. Brexit party support proved to be very shallow even at a time when the wider electorate was focussed on the issue. It was a protest vote - as was the 2015 UKIP vote to a great extent.
    The Brexit issue has ceased to be salient, and I suspect that any attempted Farage comeback would be doomed to fail with his vote share little more than UKIP managed back in 2010.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    HYUFD said:

    The 2019 Spring polls had Farage's party on 20 - 25% in some of them and Hunt would be May 2 just with higher taxes now and spending cuts. Most of the voters who voted for Boris at the last general election are hardly going to be desperate to vote for the man who lost the leadership contest to Boris and would have been imposed on the Tories by coronation after Boris was removed.

    I expect Labour would win but there is certainly a scenario where Farage could take second place from Hunt
    I think you over-estimate the potential of Farage and the populist right. The 2019 polls you refer to were before Brexit 'got done' - it's done now. You referred earlier to something like 'Farage taking on the corporatist remainer elite represented by Starmer and Hunt' - strange language for you. His supporters are very noisy but not so numerous - no more than 10% of the electorate, I reckon, believe in these sort of conspiracist global elite memes. Look how little progress Tice has made.

    In short, the numbers you talk about would only be achievable by a Farage-led party if there was a serious risk of Brexit being over-turned. But that isn't going to happen. Brexit is done, at least for the foreseeable future. And therefore Farage is a busted flush.
  • ping said:

    They’ll find out how much they have to cut when the bond market opens on Monday.

    By Wednesday things will be clear.

    Everything Hunt has said so far is directly aimed at Gilt traders. If yields reduce, then cuts will be moderate. If they rise, they’ll be severe. He’s using the press to signal all sorts of cuts and tax rises this weekend. Whether they actually get implemented depends, as I said, on the bond market next week.

    Thats the terrifying truth about how politics works, right now.
    And will be for years to come
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,548

    George Mann 🫧⚒️🫧
    @sgfmann
    ·
    12m
    Sunday Express: Revealed - Secret plot to oust PM #TomorrowsPapersToday
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    So it turns out that the 2010s *are* ready for drinking.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,852
    Scott_xP said:

    Meanwhile...

    Your eyes do not deceive you - this really is the Daily Telegraph https://twitter.com/PascalLTH/status/1581304429193572352/photo/1

    From @JeremyWarnerUK in @Telegraph - Brexit has been even worse than predicted - hit the economy even more severely than so-called Project Fear. https://twitter.com/jeremywarneruk/status/1581330560571801602

    He was writing in the Telegraph in support of Remain since before the referendum, so I don't know why anyone should be surprised by this.
  • stodge said:

    Hunt's comments about tax rises and spending cuts at least have the smack of cold hard reality about them.

    Which taxes will rise and where the spending cuts will fall are of course going to be the real issues between now and the end of the month.

    Given it seems impossible politically to cut defence or NHS spending, it would seem local Government will again take the hit but as to raising taxes, not quite sure what Hunt has in mind or where. Seems politically impossible to for example raise VAT or fuel duty - will we see the 1p tax cut in the Kwarteng Budget reversed to put the final nail in the coffin of Trussonomics?

    Council tax and its adult social care precept look likely.

    Aside from the genuine advantage of shifting more of the tax burden onto property it would have the political advantage of shifting much of the backlash onto local councils.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    stodge said:

    Hunt's comments about tax rises and spending cuts at least have the smack of cold hard reality about them.

    Which taxes will rise and where the spending cuts will fall are of course going to be the real issues between now and the end of the month.

    Given it seems impossible politically to cut defence or NHS spending, it would seem local Government will again take the hit but as to raising taxes, not quite sure what Hunt has in mind or where. Seems politically impossible to for example raise VAT or fuel duty - will we see the 1p tax cut in the Kwarteng Budget reversed to put the final nail in the coffin of Trussonomics?

    And interest and mortgage and borrowing rates will continue to rise.
    Thanks to Liz this worldwide trend has now been laid at the door of the Conservative Party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594


    George Mann 🫧⚒️🫧
    @sgfmann
    ·
    12m
    Sunday Express: Revealed - Secret plot to oust PM #TomorrowsPapersToday

    The plotters need to be better at keeping secrets, that's for sure.

  • George Mann 🫧⚒️🫧
    @sgfmann
    ·
    12m
    Sunday Express: Revealed - Secret plot to oust PM #TomorrowsPapersToday

    The only problem with that headline is it is not a secret !!!!!
This discussion has been closed.