They should get real, the necessary 45% corporation tax rate or 50-something% tax on workers they hate would crucify the economy. Indefinite borrowing and cheap energy are over.
Does anyone think the triple lock on pensions will be in the scope of the 'difficult decisions' cited by Hunt?
No chance . There’s always money for the Tories core vote . Everyone else can just feed off the scraps !
They should get real, the necessary 45% corporation tax rate or 50-something% tax on workers they hate would crucify the economy. Indefinite borrowing and cheap energy are over.
Does anyone think the triple lock on pensions will be inside the scope of the 'difficult decisions' cited by Hunt?
Hunt was 48 on BF for next leader yesterday lunchtime when I bet on him.
Now 4.8
Has an MP ever come in faster on the betting?
Given Hunt was eliminated in the first MPs round of voting in the leadership contest and polled worse than Sunak with members let alone Truss or Badenoch, I fail to see how he gets it. Chancellor is probably the highest post he is going to have
That he was out so early ironically makes him more likely a compromise candidate for me, in seeking to secure a coronation. He didn't get involved in the argy bargy of the debates.
Contrarily, whilst people might want to avoid the members voting this time, picking the guy they most definitely rejected, would make crowning Sunak quite the provocation to them.
If there is a Tory leader Farage would be licking his lips over, it is Hunt.
Farage would return to lead RefUK in 5 minutes if Hunt took over.
Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
You appear to be saying that the Tories can only choose a leader that is approved of by Farage. Given the current state of the membership you may be correct. It is however a recipe for disaster for the Conservative Party.
In Spring 2019 they had a leader not approved of by Farage and were in 3rd place, by December they had a leader who won back voters from Farage and a landslide general election victory.
Nearly all Remainers are now voting for Starmer Labour or the LDs or SNP, so if they split Leavers with Farage under FPTP the Tories are doomed
You are living in the past - Since Brexit has come to pass the ERG Tories + RefUK + UKIP aren't polling 30% between them anymore. You are like bald men arguing over a comb.
It is who wins the majority of that 30% though which is key.
Labour got 29% in 2010, 30% in 2015 and 32% in 2019 (albeit with an aberration 40% in 2019) but unlike the Tories there was never really a threat of the Greens say overtaking them on the left, as there could be with Farage on the right
It doesn’t matter who gets the majority of this 30% to who can get the keys to No. 10. If you’re fighting over the 30%, you’re not winning elections. The way back for the Tories is to appeal to the centre.
Forget the centre, the centre went to Starmer months ago and is not coming back anytime soon whoever the Tories leader is. Forget winning the next election, that is also gone now.
The focus for the Tories now is holding the right and avoiding extinction, because if Farage overtakes them they will effectively die as a party
Farage has retired from frontline politics. I think it makes more sense to fight for those centre voters than to fear a bogeyman on the populist Right will steal their remaining support.
Only temporarily, Farage despises Hunt and if Hunt became leader would be back to lead RefUK in 5 minutes
It's only a question of time before Farage decides to take over the leadership of the Reform Party again. The current leader is failing to make any impression whatsoever. And when he does their support in the polls will probably rise almost automatically from around 5% to around 10%.
Perhaps but who the Tory leader is will determine if they rise any further than that
Re: some people here thinking that if Hunt tries to stand unopposed, that someone like Kemi/Braverman would challenge them now.
Both Kemi/Braverman have age on their side. If you're them, you might even want 2024 to be a defeat - but not the wipeout that is currently predicted.
If the next few years see a movement for rejoin, that persuades Starmer to go for SM membership or similar, there's a very easy narrative for a Kemi type to spin. "Betrayal!!" etc etc - and a much more winnable 2029 than 2024 ever would be.
Hunt was 48 on BF for next leader yesterday lunchtime when I bet on him.
Now 4.8
Has an MP ever come in faster on the betting?
Given Hunt was eliminated in the first MPs round of voting in the leadership contest and polled worse than Sunak with members let alone Truss or Badenoch, I fail to see how he gets it. Chancellor is probably the highest post he is going to have
That he was out so early ironically makes him more likely a compromise candidate for me, in seeking to secure a coronation. He didn't get involved in the argy bargy of the debates.
Contrarily, whilst people might want to avoid the members voting this time, picking the guy they most definitely rejected, would make crowning Sunak quite the provocation to them.
If there is a Tory leader Farage would be licking his lips over, it is Hunt.
Farage would return to lead RefUK in 5 minutes if Hunt took over.
Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
You appear to be saying that the Tories can only choose a leader that is approved of by Farage. Given the current state of the membership you may be correct. It is however a recipe for disaster for the Conservative Party.
In Spring 2019 they had a leader not approved of by Farage and were in 3rd place, by December they had a leader who won back voters from Farage and a landslide general election victory.
Nearly all Remainers are now voting for Starmer Labour or the LDs or SNP, so if they split Leavers with Farage under FPTP the Tories are doomed
You are living in the past - Since Brexit has come to pass the ERG Tories + RefUK + UKIP aren't polling 30% between them anymore. You are like bald men arguing over a comb.
It is who wins the majority of that 30% though which is key.
Labour got 29% in 2010, 30% in 2015 and 32% in 2019 (albeit with an aberration 40% in 2019) but unlike the Tories there was never really a threat of the Greens say overtaking them on the left, as there could be with Farage on the right
It doesn’t matter who gets the majority of this 30% to who can get the keys to No. 10. If you’re fighting over the 30%, you’re not winning elections. The way back for the Tories is to appeal to the centre.
Forget the centre, the centre went to Starmer months ago and is not coming back anytime soon whoever the Tories leader is. Forget winning the next election, that is also gone now.
The focus for the Tories now is holding the right and avoiding extinction, because if Farage overtakes them they will effectively die as a party
Farage has retired from frontline politics. I think it makes more sense to fight for those centre voters than to fear a bogeyman on the populist Right will steal their remaining support.
Only temporarily, Farage despises Hunt and if Hunt became leader would be back to lead RefUK in 5 minutes
Hunt was 48 on BF for next leader yesterday lunchtime when I bet on him.
Now 4.8
Has an MP ever come in faster on the betting?
Given Hunt was eliminated in the first MPs round of voting in the leadership contest and polled worse than Sunak with members let alone Truss or Badenoch, I fail to see how he gets it. Chancellor is probably the highest post he is going to have
That he was out so early ironically makes him more likely a compromise candidate for me, in seeking to secure a coronation. He didn't get involved in the argy bargy of the debates.
Contrarily, whilst people might want to avoid the members voting this time, picking the guy they most definitely rejected, would make crowning Sunak quite the provocation to them.
If there is a Tory leader Farage would be licking his lips over, it is Hunt.
Farage would return to lead RefUK in 5 minutes if Hunt took over.
Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
You appear to be saying that the Tories can only choose a leader that is approved of by Farage. Given the current state of the membership you may be correct. It is however a recipe for disaster for the Conservative Party.
In Spring 2019 they had a leader not approved of by Farage and were in 3rd place, by December they had a leader who won back voters from Farage and a landslide general election victory.
Nearly all Remainers are now voting for Starmer Labour or the LDs or SNP, so if they split Leavers with Farage under FPTP the Tories are doomed
You are living in the past - Since Brexit has come to pass the ERG Tories + RefUK + UKIP aren't polling 30% between them anymore. You are like bald men arguing over a comb.
It is who wins the majority of that 30% though which is key.
Labour got 29% in 2010, 30% in 2015 and 32% in 2019 (albeit with an aberration 40% in 2019) but unlike the Tories there was never really a threat of the Greens say overtaking them on the left, as there could be with Farage on the right
It doesn’t matter who gets the majority of this 30% to who can get the keys to No. 10. If you’re fighting over the 30%, you’re not winning elections. The way back for the Tories is to appeal to the centre.
Forget the centre, the centre went to Starmer months ago and is not coming back anytime soon whoever the Tories leader is. Forget winning the next election, that is also gone now.
The focus for the Tories now is holding the right and avoiding extinction, because if Farage overtakes them they will effectively die as a party
You will never win from the right just as Corbyn demonstrated from the left
The country is utterly weary of the hard right and left, and you will soon be a dinosaur
Thatcher won from the right, Attlee won from the left, as did Wilson and Corbyn got very close to it in 2017 too.
The centre does not always win every general election
They should get real, the necessary 45% corporation tax rate or 50-something% tax on workers they hate would crucify the economy. Indefinite borrowing and cheap energy are over.
Does anyone think the triple lock on pensions will be in the scope of the 'difficult decisions' cited by Hunt?
No chance . There’s always money for the Tories core vote . Everyone else can just feed off the scraps !
The correct decision would be a compromise for pensions and benefits
Re: some people here thinking that if Hunt tries to stand unopposed, that someone like Kemi/Braverman would challenge them now.
Both Kemi/Braverman have age on their side. If you're them, you might even want 2024 to be a defeat - but not the wipeout that is currently predicted.
If the next few years see a movement for rejoin, that persuades Starmer to go for SM membership or similar, there's a very easy narrative for a Kemi type to spin. "Betrayal!!" etc etc - and a much more winnable 2029 than 2024 ever would be.
It can only be a coronation as going out to the membership is out of the question
They should get real, the necessary 45% corporation tax rate or 50-something% tax on workers they hate would crucify the economy. Indefinite borrowing and cheap energy are over.
Bit confusing from the unions: if they don't like Hunt's approach, does that mean they were happier with the Truss/Kwarteng policy/policies?
Hunt was 48 on BF for next leader yesterday lunchtime when I bet on him.
Now 4.8
Has an MP ever come in faster on the betting?
Given Hunt was eliminated in the first MPs round of voting in the leadership contest and polled worse than Sunak with members let alone Truss or Badenoch, I fail to see how he gets it. Chancellor is probably the highest post he is going to have
That he was out so early ironically makes him more likely a compromise candidate for me, in seeking to secure a coronation. He didn't get involved in the argy bargy of the debates.
Contrarily, whilst people might want to avoid the members voting this time, picking the guy they most definitely rejected, would make crowning Sunak quite the provocation to them.
If there is a Tory leader Farage would be licking his lips over, it is Hunt.
Farage would return to lead RefUK in 5 minutes if Hunt took over.
Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
You appear to be saying that the Tories can only choose a leader that is approved of by Farage. Given the current state of the membership you may be correct. It is however a recipe for disaster for the Conservative Party.
In Spring 2019 they had a leader not approved of by Farage and were in 3rd place, by December they had a leader who won back voters from Farage and a landslide general election victory.
Nearly all Remainers are now voting for Starmer Labour or the LDs or SNP, so if they split Leavers with Farage under FPTP the Tories are doomed
You are living in the past - Since Brexit has come to pass the ERG Tories + RefUK + UKIP aren't polling 30% between them anymore. You are like bald men arguing over a comb.
It is who wins the majority of that 30% though which is key.
Labour got 29% in 2010, 30% in 2015 and 32% in 2019 (albeit with an aberration 40% in 2019) but unlike the Tories there was never really a threat of the Greens say overtaking them on the left, as there could be with Farage on the right
It doesn’t matter who gets the majority of this 30% to who can get the keys to No. 10. If you’re fighting over the 30%, you’re not winning elections. The way back for the Tories is to appeal to the centre.
Forget the centre, the centre went to Starmer months ago and is not coming back anytime soon whoever the Tories leader is. Forget winning the next election, that is also gone now.
The focus for the Tories now is holding the right and avoiding extinction, because if Farage overtakes them they will effectively die as a party
You will never win from the right just as Corbyn demonstrated from the left
The country is utterly weary of the hard right and left, and you will soon be a dinosaur
Thatcher won from the right, Attlee won from the left, as did Wilson and Corbyn got very close to it in 2017 too.
The centre does not always win every general election
As a purely historical matter rather than a debating point, Attlee had been in charge of domestic policy for a half-decade before he became PM, and his cabinet included the left but was not dominated by it. He also had a bunch of rows with the real left, and ended up expelling almost half a dozen anti-Nato MPs who would have been predecessors to Corbyn's sympathies.
Re: some people here thinking that if Hunt tries to stand unopposed, that someone like Kemi/Braverman would challenge them now.
Both Kemi/Braverman have age on their side. If you're them, you might even want 2024 to be a defeat - but not the wipeout that is currently predicted.
If the next few years see a movement for rejoin, that persuades Starmer to go for SM membership or similar, there's a very easy narrative for a Kemi type to spin. "Betrayal!!" etc etc - and a much more winnable 2029 than 2024 ever would be.
I think they would always go for it if an opportunity comes up. But I also think they will be more cautious after seeing what happened to Truss and her agenda.
They should get real, the necessary 45% corporation tax rate or 50-something% tax on workers they hate would crucify the economy. Indefinite borrowing and cheap energy are over.
Bit confusing from the unions: if they don't like Hunt's approach, does that mean they were happier with the Truss/Kwarteng policy/policies?
I'd say yes, because it was more likely to end with two ok outcomes for them: random taxes imposed on investors by Labour to make up the deficit, or devaluation of the pound that would have hurt the export sector more than public services. A more balanced Conservative budget will probably be harder to change for Labour in future, so yes, I'd prefer Kwarteng's budget as a union boss even if I didn't admit it.
They should get real, the necessary 45% corporation tax rate or 50-something% tax on workers they hate would crucify the economy. Indefinite borrowing and cheap energy are over.
Bit confusing from the unions: if they don't like Hunt's approach, does that mean they were happier with the Truss/Kwarteng policy/policies?
I'd say yes, because it was more likely to end with two ok outcomes for them: random taxes imposed on investors by Labour to make up the deficit, or devaluation of the pound that would have hurt the export sector more than public services. A more balanced Conservative budget will probably be harder to change for Labour in future, so yes, I'd prefer Kwarteng's budget as a union boss even if I didn't admit it.
A lower £ should boost exports as they are cheaper, it is companies which import a lot that are hit with more expensive supplies
Hunt has calmed the markets, if he quits then it will be carnage, so Truss cannot afford to lose him, he will do whatever he wants.
What happens if Monday comes and the markets aren’t calmed?
The way this usually happens is there can be two weeks of calm - people say the markets have been calmed, but then it all erupts again.
Obviously you all know my theory - £400bn of Rishi splaffing (and wasting a lot) to get us through covid has maxxed out the credit - now they want to (unnecessarily, needlessly) try to get another £200bn more borrowing - the markets won’t calm till that plan is dead.
Or the £200bn becomes more like £20bn. Everything now turns on the future price of gas.
I don’t want to be really rude David, but you keep posting that “If gas falls sufficiently, the cost of the energy cap freeze drops” means don’t think you really understand it. That thinking is utter bollox.
1. We haven’t had an OBR how much Tories total promise is likely to cost. The Tories have promised to buck the UK energy market for two and a half years regardless what global energy price does. Some think tanks have had a go at pricing this and come to a quarter of a trillion pound. To be found by tax rises, borrowing or cuts or mixture thereof. Quarter of a trillion on that one policy alone. 2. Variable one. Energy prices can go down, yes, but also up, it’s a very fluid situation in supply and demand over this coming period - but at which point do energy companies need to commit to buying it in advance, so commit to passing on THAT price to both customers AND onto a government commitment to bucking the market? 3. Variable two. If global prices do come down, to what degree is the saving on the quarter of a trillion eaten into or obliterated by the more expensive borrowing costs? Out of these two variable’s, borrowing costs for this policy look certain to remain high now, the greater doubt is if energy prices will come down and stay down isn’t it?
You really think that whole £200bn comes down to £20bn? 🥹 We all know what’s really behind “but the bill freeze looks like turning out much cheaper because gas prices are coming down” argument we get spun from Tory’s on TV and on PB - they privately hate this lumbering Labour policy Tory party has adopted, they hate the ENORMOUS amount of borrowing maxing out UKs credit limit, and the regressive unConservative way the money is spewed out in indiscriminate handouts.
But. They are only fooling themselves spinning that comfort blanket, because, yes, there are variables, but the variables are very much against them.
Don’t be one of them.
There is no defence to this insane policy, Truss has been hiding behind all week.
I would agree we don't know what this policy is going to cost and I would agree that there are significant risks on the upside but there is also some reason for hope on the low side.
The government have committed to the average house bill being no more than £2500 a year. At the moment the price of gas futures are 263p/therm. It has been over 700p and has averaged around 400p of late. The cost of the UK subsidy is directly relational to that price against the price that fixes the £2500 pa average. I have been unable to work out exactly what that is because there are quite a number of other variables. Energy companies are bumping up their fixed charges as well. My best guess is that £2500 per household is going be equivalent to something like 200p/therm, roughly twice what it was last winter.
But I am not wrong is saying that there is a chance that the cost of the scheme will prove to be much lower than the worst estimates. It could also be higher of course. If it stays somewhere near our current price or goes even lower then the cost of the scheme will be less. If it goes back up again we are in trouble, no doubt about it.
Edit, and btw the OBR will have no better idea than the rest of us, it is simply unknowable.
You telling us It’s unknowable wasn’t the impression I got when you reduced it from £200bn to £20bn to spark my reply. 🙂
We know enough overall price can’t come down that much. Because the bit you seem to be avoiding is commodity price drop is to some extent offset by borrowing cost increase - goes back to the unknowable being very guessable in that the borrowing cost won’t be based on “maybe the commodity price drops and stays at x price”, who lends money on that basis?
You accept the part of the equation, political and economic, it is not necessary to provide help in this way, there other options such as sliding scale to target help where needed, not wasted where not needed, and virtually pays for itself?
I believe most UK government borrowing is fixed rate. So the increase only kicks in as new debt is issued.
Interesting the current (March) forecast it from debt interest this year to be c £83bn but to *fall* to £47bn next year… a cut in public spending baked in
If you listened to what the mini budget said - the Energy Price Freeze (a quarter of a trillion pounds) will be paid for by new borrowing, no new taxes no new cuts.
If you listed to what Liz Truss said Wednesday, public spending overall total will not show any cuts under her, simply because the quarter of a trillion Energy Price Freeze is being added to the public spending total.
What I am arguing in this thread, we don’t have to fund a quarter of a trillion pound scheme when other realistic options are available better targeted and virtually paying for themselves, I’m also arguing against those saying commodity price coming down proves the end bill will definitely be cheaper, because even with cuts even with more tax, this scheme will always need a huge amount of new borrowing at the new higher borrowing rates.
Correct me where wrong.
But I am now adding a third facet to my argument - anyone who claims Kwarteng and Truss mini budget crashed the markets I am calling an idiot peddling a myth. And I can prove it. That spiking gilt market graph they use over and over in media, expand it to see the previous 12 months and see the trajectory is up up up long before Truss got anywhere near number 10 - my argument is the budget exacerbated an already underlying problem. Anyone want to own the claim if the mini budget is reversed, annulled, reset, the trajectory on the borrowings chart graph would be down when it hasn’t been all year?
I’m arguing anyone who peddles Labour Party lies that Kwarteng and Truss mini budget crashed the markets I am calling an idiot peddling a myth, and sure I can win this argument.
I’ve been drinking all afternoon, don’t anyone want to take me on?
You're probably sleeping it off right now, but just in case, I will!
You and @Luckyguy1983 are making a similar argument, and its nonsense.
You're arguing two different things. The first is a straw man, and obviously false: "Anyone want to own the claim if the mini budget is reversed, annulled, reset, the trajectory on the borrowings chart graph would be down when it hasn’t been all year?" Nah, no thanks, the economy was already getting worse before the Trustterf*ck.
The second argument obviously doesn't follow: "I’m arguing anyone who peddles Labour Party lies that Kwarteng and Truss mini budget crashed the markets I am calling an idiot peddling a myth, and sure I can win this argument." Nah you can't. The markets were already pretty unhappy, they dropped a Trussterbomb in the middle of it. They bear full responsibility for moving the markets from 'err...we don't really like this
If I was to say, sorry about that clusterbomb I dropped last week, I'll just clean up all the shrapnel from my clusterbomb and pretend it never happened, the maimed children might have something to say about it.
Lucky for you, I’m still wide awake and drinking. 😵💫
Your post is just spin - you actually agree with my central point, that I’m right because you have to, but saying I’m wrong all over the place.
If Labour had held a budget the same day, without the tax cutting, I’m arguing what you call a Trusster fuck would still have happened. It would be a Starmerfuck. Because the fundamentals in the economy, the maxxed out credit card, cannot handle the quarter of a trillion extra for Energy hand outs, not simply the fundamental maths of it making the loan/borrowing risk - the markets don’t see a need for us to use this particular scheme. So when you break it down, The gilty graph has been on upward trajectory all year - fact if the mini budget is completely reversed the gilty trajectory will still be an upward trajectory, not downward - fact thus proving conclusively the idea Truss Kwasi budget crashed the economy is a myth, a myth peddled by Labour and their friends in the media and also mouthed by people who can’t think for themselves, the aim being to create a polling crash - because with just what the markets are doing without a polling crash, Kwarteng would still be there. Fact.
What we actually need to hear from Labour if they think they can form a government on Monday morning - why is the borrowing cost on an upward trajectory all year, long before the mini budget came along, and what policy do they have to put it on downward trajectory?
Hint. The answer is Labour are clueless on this, as Starmer agreed with Truss quarter of a billion of unnecessary further borrowing in the trap he fell into in last weeks PMQs.
and that I am without doubt winning this argument.
This is very annoying, because I kind of half agree with your point about the energy price guarantee, but if I admit that then you'll tell me you're 1000% winning the argument or something similar.
So, as I'm the sober one here, I'll attempt a compronise... - The fundamentals in the economy are a lot less 'fundamental' than you are arguing. Yeah, we are borrowing too much. But an astute politician could have presented something like the energy price guarantee with lots of reassuring noises and 'look over here' distraction tactics to sustain market confidence (e.g. an OBR forecast that suggested a reassuring medium-term picture). Perhaps the market reassurance would only have been for a period of time, but still. - It took political idiocy to try to get markets to take the strain of another big spending commitment (the energy price guarantee) whilst also refusing to do any of the reassuring noises or distraction tactics - in fact to do the opposite of simultaneously throwing any appearance of fiscal responsibility to the winds. - I agree it is possible that the energy price guarantee would have been the straw that breaks the camel's back regardless of the political window-dressing, but looking at e.g. debt-to-GDP ratios of major economies, it is very hard to argue that this moment, right now, is the moment when the UK's spending commitments become unaffordable. - And what happened after the budget was in no way simply a polling crash. Mortgage rates are the biggest real impact, but the pension funds are close behind.
Hmm...not sure that compromise will satisfy you, and I'm off to bed (I know, I know, it's before 9pm. That's my life with a two-year old and a pregnant wife) but this has been fun. Thanks.
Oh. There you were after all @maxh I must have had the Pringles in the way when you posted. 🫤
Line by line. “The fundamentals in the economy are a lot less 'fundamental' than you are arguing. But an astute politician could have” Nope. When you are maxed out on card, when you get the basket to the till the card process says UhUh! No amount of sweet talking can change the fundamentals of “no. You can’t afford it.”
“It took political idiocy to try to get markets to take the strain of another big spending commitment (the energy price guarantee) whilst also refusing to do any of the reassuring noises or distraction tactics - in fact to do the opposite of simultaneously throwing any appearance of fiscal responsibility to the winds.” All true. But the fundamentals fact is, whatever Starmer or Truss would have tried the answer would still have been no. Quarter of trillion in basket, credit worthiness a lot less than that, off goes the klaxons wobbly go the markets. If an OBR would have said you can’t put that in the basket and take it to the till, but you so want to play with the new credit card you’ve inherited with all your pirate liberterian ideas and create lovely growth growth growth becuase you are oh so clever - then you won’t even bother to engage an OBR to be told otherwise will you?
“the energy price guarantee would have been straw that breaks the camel's back regardless of the window-dressing, but looking at debt-to-GDP ratios of major economies, it is hard to argue that right now is the moment when the UK's spending commitments become unaffordable.” It’s a good question what our limit is. Some say 98.6% of GDP isn’t great, because we keep throwing more money at public services through borrowing, and high taxation, a sounder footing would be no more unless it’s funded by growth, yet what’s the Japan GDP % 200%+? Certainly we can’t get away with what USA can get away with, so shouldn’t be thinking we can merely copy them. I guess it’s a far bigger equation, how good are your assets, how exposed are you to coming commitments like a demographic time bomb. In which instance all countries will be in a different place. Or perhaps you could always borrow some money in, just that the bigger risk you are, the more maxxed out you are, the more basket case you are, the bigger the rates you have to pay back, which is sort of what’s happened. Which should make you think twice about expensive policies then - I don’t think Truss government have thought through the Energy Price Guarantee or perhaps even aware of alternatives, they really do seem to be in their own world and out of touch with impact of their own policies.
But it’s Labours problem too, they support this stupid policy, this won’t be forgotten.
Not much unanswerable response, I answered it. No I don’t accept your 50/50 compromise, you offered nothing to suggest other than your 100% defeat. But fair play for taking it on, everyone else on PB being frit on this argument.
They should get real, the necessary 45% corporation tax rate or 50-something% tax on workers they hate would crucify the economy. Indefinite borrowing and cheap energy are over.
Bit confusing from the unions: if they don't like Hunt's approach, does that mean they were happier with the Truss/Kwarteng policy/policies?
I'd say yes, because it was more likely to end with two ok outcomes for them: random taxes imposed on investors by Labour to make up the deficit, or devaluation of the pound that would have hurt the export sector more than public services. A more balanced Conservative budget will probably be harder to change for Labour in future, so yes, I'd prefer Kwarteng's budget as a union boss even if I didn't admit it.
A lower £ should boost exports as they are cheaper, it is companies which import a lot that are hit with more expensive supplies
Yes apologies, typing too quickly. A devaluation would hurt finance and overseas investors, not the industry as such.
Re: some people here thinking that if Hunt tries to stand unopposed, that someone like Kemi/Braverman would challenge them now.
Both Kemi/Braverman have age on their side. If you're them, you might even want 2024 to be a defeat - but not the wipeout that is currently predicted.
If the next few years see a movement for rejoin, that persuades Starmer to go for SM membership or similar, there's a very easy narrative for a Kemi type to spin. "Betrayal!!" etc etc - and a much more winnable 2029 than 2024 ever would be.
It can only be a coronation as going out to the membership is out of the question
What's the point of being a member if you can't vote for the leader?
Hunt was 48 on BF for next leader yesterday lunchtime when I bet on him.
Now 4.8
Has an MP ever come in faster on the betting?
Given Hunt was eliminated in the first MPs round of voting in the leadership contest and polled worse than Sunak with members let alone Truss or Badenoch, I fail to see how he gets it. Chancellor is probably the highest post he is going to have
That he was out so early ironically makes him more likely a compromise candidate for me, in seeking to secure a coronation. He didn't get involved in the argy bargy of the debates.
Contrarily, whilst people might want to avoid the members voting this time, picking the guy they most definitely rejected, would make crowning Sunak quite the provocation to them.
If there is a Tory leader Farage would be licking his lips over, it is Hunt.
Farage would return to lead RefUK in 5 minutes if Hunt took over.
Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
You appear to be saying that the Tories can only choose a leader that is approved of by Farage. Given the current state of the membership you may be correct. It is however a recipe for disaster for the Conservative Party.
In Spring 2019 they had a leader not approved of by Farage and were in 3rd place, by December they had a leader who won back voters from Farage and a landslide general election victory.
Nearly all Remainers are now voting for Starmer Labour or the LDs or SNP, so if they split Leavers with Farage under FPTP the Tories are doomed
You are living in the past - Since Brexit has come to pass the ERG Tories + RefUK + UKIP aren't polling 30% between them anymore. You are like bald men arguing over a comb.
It is who wins the majority of that 30% though which is key.
Labour got 29% in 2010, 30% in 2015 and 32% in 2019 (albeit with an aberration 40% in 2019) but unlike the Tories there was never really a threat of the Greens say overtaking them on the left, as there could be with Farage on the right
It doesn’t matter who gets the majority of this 30% to who can get the keys to No. 10. If you’re fighting over the 30%, you’re not winning elections. The way back for the Tories is to appeal to the centre.
Forget the centre, the centre went to Starmer months ago and is not coming back anytime soon whoever the Tories leader is. Forget winning the next election, that is also gone now.
The focus for the Tories now is holding the right and avoiding extinction, because if Farage overtakes them they will effectively die as a party
You will never win from the right just as Corbyn demonstrated from the left
The country is utterly weary of the hard right and left, and you will soon be a dinosaur
Thatcher won from the right, Attlee won from the left, as did Wilson and Corbyn got very close to it in 2017 too.
The centre does not always win every general election
As a purely historical matter rather than a debating point, Attlee had been in charge of domestic policy for a half-decade before he became PM, and his cabinet included the left but was not dominated by it. He also had a bunch of rows with the real left, and ended up expelling almost half a dozen anti-Nato MPs who would have been predecessors to Corbyn's sympathies.
True although I think nearly all were later readmitted to the party. Anyway, obviously Attlee wasn't on the left of the Labour party, but that doesn't mean he wasn't on the left in a broader sense. It's worth bearing in mind that the 1945 manifesto stated Labour's ambition was to create a Socialist Commonwealth of Great Britain.
Hunt was 48 on BF for next leader yesterday lunchtime when I bet on him.
Now 4.8
Has an MP ever come in faster on the betting?
Given Hunt was eliminated in the first MPs round of voting in the leadership contest and polled worse than Sunak with members let alone Truss or Badenoch, I fail to see how he gets it. Chancellor is probably the highest post he is going to have
That he was out so early ironically makes him more likely a compromise candidate for me, in seeking to secure a coronation. He didn't get involved in the argy bargy of the debates.
Contrarily, whilst people might want to avoid the members voting this time, picking the guy they most definitely rejected, would make crowning Sunak quite the provocation to them.
If there is a Tory leader Farage would be licking his lips over, it is Hunt.
Farage would return to lead RefUK in 5 minutes if Hunt took over.
Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
You appear to be saying that the Tories can only choose a leader that is approved of by Farage. Given the current state of the membership you may be correct. It is however a recipe for disaster for the Conservative Party.
In Spring 2019 they had a leader not approved of by Farage and were in 3rd place, by December they had a leader who won back voters from Farage and a landslide general election victory.
Nearly all Remainers are now voting for Starmer Labour or the LDs or SNP, so if they split Leavers with Farage under FPTP the Tories are doomed
You are living in the past - Since Brexit has come to pass the ERG Tories + RefUK + UKIP aren't polling 30% between them anymore. You are like bald men arguing over a comb.
It is who wins the majority of that 30% though which is key.
Labour got 29% in 2010, 30% in 2015 and 32% in 2019 (albeit with an aberration 40% in 2019) but unlike the Tories there was never really a threat of the Greens say overtaking them on the left, as there could be with Farage on the right
It doesn’t matter who gets the majority of this 30% to who can get the keys to No. 10. If you’re fighting over the 30%, you’re not winning elections. The way back for the Tories is to appeal to the centre.
Forget the centre, the centre went to Starmer months ago and is not coming back anytime soon whoever the Tories leader is. Forget winning the next election, that is also gone now.
The focus for the Tories now is holding the right and avoiding extinction, because if Farage overtakes them they will effectively die as a party
You will never win from the right just as Corbyn demonstrated from the left
The country is utterly weary of the hard right and left, and you will soon be a dinosaur
Thatcher won from the right, Attlee won from the left, as did Wilson and Corbyn got very close to it in 2017 too.
The centre does not always win every general election
As a purely historical matter rather than a debating point, Attlee had been in charge of domestic policy for a half-decade before he became PM, and his cabinet included the left but was not dominated by it. He also had a bunch of rows with the real left, and ended up expelling almost half a dozen anti-Nato MPs who would have been predecessors to Corbyn's sympathies.
Attlee also nationalised half the economy, expanded the welfare state and introduced the NHS and the top rate of income tax was 90% under his government.
Hunt was 48 on BF for next leader yesterday lunchtime when I bet on him.
Now 4.8
Has an MP ever come in faster on the betting?
Given Hunt was eliminated in the first MPs round of voting in the leadership contest and polled worse than Sunak with members let alone Truss or Badenoch, I fail to see how he gets it. Chancellor is probably the highest post he is going to have
That he was out so early ironically makes him more likely a compromise candidate for me, in seeking to secure a coronation. He didn't get involved in the argy bargy of the debates.
Contrarily, whilst people might want to avoid the members voting this time, picking the guy they most definitely rejected, would make crowning Sunak quite the provocation to them.
If there is a Tory leader Farage would be licking his lips over, it is Hunt.
Farage would return to lead RefUK in 5 minutes if Hunt took over.
Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
You appear to be saying that the Tories can only choose a leader that is approved of by Farage. Given the current state of the membership you may be correct. It is however a recipe for disaster for the Conservative Party.
In Spring 2019 they had a leader not approved of by Farage and were in 3rd place, by December they had a leader who won back voters from Farage and a landslide general election victory.
Nearly all Remainers are now voting for Starmer Labour or the LDs or SNP, so if they split Leavers with Farage under FPTP the Tories are doomed
You are living in the past - Since Brexit has come to pass the ERG Tories + RefUK + UKIP aren't polling 30% between them anymore. You are like bald men arguing over a comb.
It is who wins the majority of that 30% though which is key.
Labour got 29% in 2010, 30% in 2015 and 32% in 2019 (albeit with an aberration 40% in 2019) but unlike the Tories there was never really a threat of the Greens say overtaking them on the left, as there could be with Farage on the right
It doesn’t matter who gets the majority of this 30% to who can get the keys to No. 10. If you’re fighting over the 30%, you’re not winning elections. The way back for the Tories is to appeal to the centre.
Forget the centre, the centre went to Starmer months ago and is not coming back anytime soon whoever the Tories leader is. Forget winning the next election, that is also gone now.
The focus for the Tories now is holding the right and avoiding extinction, because if Farage overtakes them they will effectively die as a party
Farage has retired from frontline politics. I think it makes more sense to fight for those centre voters than to fear a bogeyman on the populist Right will steal their remaining support.
Only temporarily, Farage despises Hunt and if Hunt became leader would be back to lead RefUK in 5 minutes
It's only a question of time before Farage decides to take over the leadership of the Reform Party again. The current leader is failing to make any impression whatsoever. And when he does their support in the polls will probably rise almost automatically from around 5% to around 10%.
There's an overlap between some of Farage's views on constitutional reform and the likes of the Lib Dems, so if he takes that angle, it could make for an interesting pincer movement.
Interesting that the Tories have gone from potentially installing the loser of Truss vs Sunak as PM to installing the loser of Johnson vs Hunt. Perhaps Leave vs Remain is the next election result they're going to overturn.
Hunt was 48 on BF for next leader yesterday lunchtime when I bet on him.
Now 4.8
Has an MP ever come in faster on the betting?
Given Hunt was eliminated in the first MPs round of voting in the leadership contest and polled worse than Sunak with members let alone Truss or Badenoch, I fail to see how he gets it. Chancellor is probably the highest post he is going to have
That he was out so early ironically makes him more likely a compromise candidate for me, in seeking to secure a coronation. He didn't get involved in the argy bargy of the debates.
Contrarily, whilst people might want to avoid the members voting this time, picking the guy they most definitely rejected, would make crowning Sunak quite the provocation to them.
If there is a Tory leader Farage would be licking his lips over, it is Hunt.
Farage would return to lead RefUK in 5 minutes if Hunt took over.
Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
You appear to be saying that the Tories can only choose a leader that is approved of by Farage. Given the current state of the membership you may be correct. It is however a recipe for disaster for the Conservative Party.
In Spring 2019 they had a leader not approved of by Farage and were in 3rd place, by December they had a leader who won back voters from Farage and a landslide general election victory.
Nearly all Remainers are now voting for Starmer Labour or the LDs or SNP, so if they split Leavers with Farage under FPTP the Tories are doomed
You are living in the past - Since Brexit has come to pass the ERG Tories + RefUK + UKIP aren't polling 30% between them anymore. You are like bald men arguing over a comb.
It is who wins the majority of that 30% though which is key.
Labour got 29% in 2010, 30% in 2015 and 32% in 2019 (albeit with an aberration 40% in 2019) but unlike the Tories there was never really a threat of the Greens say overtaking them on the left, as there could be with Farage on the right
It doesn’t matter who gets the majority of this 30% to who can get the keys to No. 10. If you’re fighting over the 30%, you’re not winning elections. The way back for the Tories is to appeal to the centre.
Forget the centre, the centre went to Starmer months ago and is not coming back anytime soon whoever the Tories leader is. Forget winning the next election, that is also gone now.
The focus for the Tories now is holding the right and avoiding extinction, because if Farage overtakes them they will effectively die as a party
You will never win from the right just as Corbyn demonstrated from the left
The country is utterly weary of the hard right and left, and you will soon be a dinosaur
Thatcher won from the right, Attlee won from the left, as did Wilson and Corbyn got very close to it in 2017 too.
The centre does not always win every general election
As a purely historical matter rather than a debating point, Attlee had been in charge of domestic policy for a half-decade before he became PM, and his cabinet included the left but was not dominated by it. He also had a bunch of rows with the real left, and ended up expelling almost half a dozen anti-Nato MPs who would have been predecessors to Corbyn's sympathies.
Attlee also nationalised half the economy, expanded the welfare state and introduced the NHS and the top rate of income tax was 90% under his government.
Re: some people here thinking that if Hunt tries to stand unopposed, that someone like Kemi/Braverman would challenge them now.
Both Kemi/Braverman have age on their side. If you're them, you might even want 2024 to be a defeat - but not the wipeout that is currently predicted.
If the next few years see a movement for rejoin, that persuades Starmer to go for SM membership or similar, there's a very easy narrative for a Kemi type to spin. "Betrayal!!" etc etc - and a much more winnable 2029 than 2024 ever would be.
It can only be a coronation as going out to the membership is out of the question
What's the point of being a member if you can't vote for the leader?
What's the point of being a member if you can't understand Truss is a disaster?
Re: some people here thinking that if Hunt tries to stand unopposed, that someone like Kemi/Braverman would challenge them now.
Both Kemi/Braverman have age on their side. If you're them, you might even want 2024 to be a defeat - but not the wipeout that is currently predicted.
If the next few years see a movement for rejoin, that persuades Starmer to go for SM membership or similar, there's a very easy narrative for a Kemi type to spin. "Betrayal!!" etc etc - and a much more winnable 2029 than 2024 ever would be.
It can only be a coronation as going out to the membership is out of the question
What's the point of being a member if you can't vote for the leader?
Interesting that the Tories have gone from potentially installing the loser of Truss vs Sunak as PM to installing the loser of Johnson vs Hunt. Perhaps Leave vs Remain is the next election result they're going to overturn.
If they tried than that is the end of the party as I said earlier, Farage would be Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer's government. The Tories would have a handful of MPs left at most in West London and Surrey
Hunt was 48 on BF for next leader yesterday lunchtime when I bet on him.
Now 4.8
Has an MP ever come in faster on the betting?
Given Hunt was eliminated in the first MPs round of voting in the leadership contest and polled worse than Sunak with members let alone Truss or Badenoch, I fail to see how he gets it. Chancellor is probably the highest post he is going to have
That he was out so early ironically makes him more likely a compromise candidate for me, in seeking to secure a coronation. He didn't get involved in the argy bargy of the debates.
Contrarily, whilst people might want to avoid the members voting this time, picking the guy they most definitely rejected, would make crowning Sunak quite the provocation to them.
If there is a Tory leader Farage would be licking his lips over, it is Hunt.
Farage would return to lead RefUK in 5 minutes if Hunt took over.
Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
You appear to be saying that the Tories can only choose a leader that is approved of by Farage. Given the current state of the membership you may be correct. It is however a recipe for disaster for the Conservative Party.
In Spring 2019 they had a leader not approved of by Farage and were in 3rd place, by December they had a leader who won back voters from Farage and a landslide general election victory.
Nearly all Remainers are now voting for Starmer Labour or the LDs or SNP, so if they split Leavers with Farage under FPTP the Tories are doomed
You are living in the past - Since Brexit has come to pass the ERG Tories + RefUK + UKIP aren't polling 30% between them anymore. You are like bald men arguing over a comb.
It is who wins the majority of that 30% though which is key.
Labour got 29% in 2010, 30% in 2015 and 32% in 2019 (albeit with an aberration 40% in 2019) but unlike the Tories there was never really a threat of the Greens say overtaking them on the left, as there could be with Farage on the right
It doesn’t matter who gets the majority of this 30% to who can get the keys to No. 10. If you’re fighting over the 30%, you’re not winning elections. The way back for the Tories is to appeal to the centre.
Forget the centre, the centre went to Starmer months ago and is not coming back anytime soon whoever the Tories leader is. Forget winning the next election, that is also gone now.
The focus for the Tories now is holding the right and avoiding extinction, because if Farage overtakes them they will effectively die as a party
Farage has retired from frontline politics. I think it makes more sense to fight for those centre voters than to fear a bogeyman on the populist Right will steal their remaining support.
Only temporarily, Farage despises Hunt and if Hunt became leader would be back to lead RefUK in 5 minutes
It's only a question of time before Farage decides to take over the leadership of the Reform Party again. The current leader is failing to make any impression whatsoever. And when he does their support in the polls will probably rise almost automatically from around 5% to around 10%.
There's an overlap between some of Farage's views on constitutional reform and the likes of the Lib Dems, so if he takes that angle, it could make for an interesting pincer movement.
Constitutional reform will be so so so irrelevant at GE 2024.
It will be economics and wages and inflation and and mortgages and tax.
Perhaps Hunt should think outside the box? If he adopted a leftwing programme of increasing taxes for the rich and maintained levels of public spending, all Labour's attacks would be nullified. The spectre of the nasty party would be once more lain to rest, or whatever happens to spectres. And rightwing people would still vote Tory anyway on the assumption that Labour would be worse. And even if they didn't, the memory of a Compassion Conservatism might help the party recover at a future election.
Last week the RAF used a £12m UAS (MQ-4B Reaper) and £120,000 missile (AGM-114 Hellfire) to do the extra-judicial execution of one raggy lad on a motorbike in Iraq. Supposed to be "ISIS" but whatever...
While they can afford to do stupid, pointless shit like that they've got too much money.
Hunt was 48 on BF for next leader yesterday lunchtime when I bet on him.
Now 4.8
Has an MP ever come in faster on the betting?
Given Hunt was eliminated in the first MPs round of voting in the leadership contest and polled worse than Sunak with members let alone Truss or Badenoch, I fail to see how he gets it. Chancellor is probably the highest post he is going to have
That he was out so early ironically makes him more likely a compromise candidate for me, in seeking to secure a coronation. He didn't get involved in the argy bargy of the debates.
Contrarily, whilst people might want to avoid the members voting this time, picking the guy they most definitely rejected, would make crowning Sunak quite the provocation to them.
If there is a Tory leader Farage would be licking his lips over, it is Hunt.
Farage would return to lead RefUK in 5 minutes if Hunt took over.
Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
You appear to be saying that the Tories can only choose a leader that is approved of by Farage. Given the current state of the membership you may be correct. It is however a recipe for disaster for the Conservative Party.
In Spring 2019 they had a leader not approved of by Farage and were in 3rd place, by December they had a leader who won back voters from Farage and a landslide general election victory.
Nearly all Remainers are now voting for Starmer Labour or the LDs or SNP, so if they split Leavers with Farage under FPTP the Tories are doomed
You are living in the past - Since Brexit has come to pass the ERG Tories + RefUK + UKIP aren't polling 30% between them anymore. You are like bald men arguing over a comb.
It is who wins the majority of that 30% though which is key.
Labour got 29% in 2010, 30% in 2015 and 32% in 2019 (albeit with an aberration 40% in 2019) but unlike the Tories there was never really a threat of the Greens say overtaking them on the left, as there could be with Farage on the right
It doesn’t matter who gets the majority of this 30% to who can get the keys to No. 10. If you’re fighting over the 30%, you’re not winning elections. The way back for the Tories is to appeal to the centre.
Forget the centre, the centre went to Starmer months ago and is not coming back anytime soon whoever the Tories leader is. Forget winning the next election, that is also gone now.
The focus for the Tories now is holding the right and avoiding extinction, because if Farage overtakes them they will effectively die as a party
You will never win from the right just as Corbyn demonstrated from the left
The country is utterly weary of the hard right and left, and you will soon be a dinosaur
Thatcher won from the right, Attlee won from the left, as did Wilson and Corbyn got very close to it in 2017 too.
The centre does not always win every general election
As a purely historical matter rather than a debating point, Attlee had been in charge of domestic policy for a half-decade before he became PM, and his cabinet included the left but was not dominated by it. He also had a bunch of rows with the real left, and ended up expelling almost half a dozen anti-Nato MPs who would have been predecessors to Corbyn's sympathies.
Attlee also nationalised half the economy, expanded the welfare state and introduced the NHS and the top rate of income tax was 90% under his government.
In a lot of cases they were nationalised because there was no private capital left after two wars and a great Depression, and the government had been running them anyway since the beginning of the war. The railways being a good example - famously the UK's nationalised railway policy was mostly about reducing the industry rather than maintaining it.
Re: some people here thinking that if Hunt tries to stand unopposed, that someone like Kemi/Braverman would challenge them now.
Both Kemi/Braverman have age on their side. If you're them, you might even want 2024 to be a defeat - but not the wipeout that is currently predicted.
If the next few years see a movement for rejoin, that persuades Starmer to go for SM membership or similar, there's a very easy narrative for a Kemi type to spin. "Betrayal!!" etc etc - and a much more winnable 2029 than 2024 ever would be.
It can only be a coronation as going out to the membership is out of the question
What's the point of being a member if you can't vote for the leader?
That would be an ecumenical matter, Father
Tories only got the right to vote on the party leader in the late 90s. They already had members before then. I'm not sure that giving them the vote caused an uptick in membership, either.
Perhaps Hunt should think outside the box? If he adopted a leftwing programme of increasing taxes for the rich and maintained levels of public spending, all Labour's attacks would be nullified. The spectre of the nasty party would be once more lain to rest, or whatever happens to spectres. And rightwing people would still vote Tory anyway on the assumption that Labour would be worse. And even if they didn't, the memory of a Compassion Conservatism might help the party recover at a future election.
A few years ago people used to bang on about the need for Labour to be exactly like the Tories in order to win a future election, but it turns out parties like doing some things because they believe them to be true.
Hunt was 48 on BF for next leader yesterday lunchtime when I bet on him.
Now 4.8
Has an MP ever come in faster on the betting?
Given Hunt was eliminated in the first MPs round of voting in the leadership contest and polled worse than Sunak with members let alone Truss or Badenoch, I fail to see how he gets it. Chancellor is probably the highest post he is going to have
That he was out so early ironically makes him more likely a compromise candidate for me, in seeking to secure a coronation. He didn't get involved in the argy bargy of the debates.
Contrarily, whilst people might want to avoid the members voting this time, picking the guy they most definitely rejected, would make crowning Sunak quite the provocation to them.
If there is a Tory leader Farage would be licking his lips over, it is Hunt.
Farage would return to lead RefUK in 5 minutes if Hunt took over.
Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
You appear to be saying that the Tories can only choose a leader that is approved of by Farage. Given the current state of the membership you may be correct. It is however a recipe for disaster for the Conservative Party.
In Spring 2019 they had a leader not approved of by Farage and were in 3rd place, by December they had a leader who won back voters from Farage and a landslide general election victory.
Nearly all Remainers are now voting for Starmer Labour or the LDs or SNP, so if they split Leavers with Farage under FPTP the Tories are doomed
You are living in the past - Since Brexit has come to pass the ERG Tories + RefUK + UKIP aren't polling 30% between them anymore. You are like bald men arguing over a comb.
It is who wins the majority of that 30% though which is key.
Labour got 29% in 2010, 30% in 2015 and 32% in 2019 (albeit with an aberration 40% in 2019) but unlike the Tories there was never really a threat of the Greens say overtaking them on the left, as there could be with Farage on the right
It doesn’t matter who gets the majority of this 30% to who can get the keys to No. 10. If you’re fighting over the 30%, you’re not winning elections. The way back for the Tories is to appeal to the centre.
Forget the centre, the centre went to Starmer months ago and is not coming back anytime soon whoever the Tories leader is. Forget winning the next election, that is also gone now.
The focus for the Tories now is holding the right and avoiding extinction, because if Farage overtakes them they will effectively die as a party
Farage has retired from frontline politics. I think it makes more sense to fight for those centre voters than to fear a bogeyman on the populist Right will steal their remaining support.
Only temporarily, Farage despises Hunt and if Hunt became leader would be back to lead RefUK in 5 minutes
It's only a question of time before Farage decides to take over the leadership of the Reform Party again. The current leader is failing to make any impression whatsoever. And when he does their support in the polls will probably rise almost automatically from around 5% to around 10%.
There's an overlap between some of Farage's views on constitutional reform and the likes of the Lib Dems, so if he takes that angle, it could make for an interesting pincer movement.
Ives: They're running a temporal pincer movement.
The Protagonist: A what?
Ives: Pincer movement. But not in space, in time. Half his team moves forward through the event. He monitors them and then attacks at the end moving backwards. Knowing everything.
Re: some people here thinking that if Hunt tries to stand unopposed, that someone like Kemi/Braverman would challenge them now.
Both Kemi/Braverman have age on their side. If you're them, you might even want 2024 to be a defeat - but not the wipeout that is currently predicted.
If the next few years see a movement for rejoin, that persuades Starmer to go for SM membership or similar, there's a very easy narrative for a Kemi type to spin. "Betrayal!!" etc etc - and a much more winnable 2029 than 2024 ever would be.
It can only be a coronation as going out to the membership is out of the question
What's the point of being a member if you can't vote for the leader?
The same point there was for members prior to 2001?
A period, by the way, which included a much higher membership.
Re: some people here thinking that if Hunt tries to stand unopposed, that someone like Kemi/Braverman would challenge them now.
Both Kemi/Braverman have age on their side. If you're them, you might even want 2024 to be a defeat - but not the wipeout that is currently predicted.
If the next few years see a movement for rejoin, that persuades Starmer to go for SM membership or similar, there's a very easy narrative for a Kemi type to spin. "Betrayal!!" etc etc - and a much more winnable 2029 than 2024 ever would be.
It can only be a coronation as going out to the membership is out of the question
What's the point of being a member if you can't vote for the leader?
That would be an ecumenical matter, Father
Tories only got the right to vote on the party leader in the late 90s. They already had members before then. I'm not sure that giving them the vote caused an uptick in membership, either.
Rarely in politics is it easy to draw a direct line from a single policy decision to the harm it’s done, but in this case, it will be simple. If any woman or girl suffers voyeurism, sexual harassment, assault or rape in consequence of the Scottish government’s lax new rules, the blame will rest squarely with those at Holyrood who ignored safeguarding experts and women’s campaigners.
And nobody should be held to higher account than the first minister, the “real feminist” who’s riding roughshod over the rights of women and girls.
Hunt has calmed the markets, if he quits then it will be carnage, so Truss cannot afford to lose him, he will do whatever he wants.
What happens if Monday comes and the markets aren’t calmed?
The way this usually happens is there can be two weeks of calm - people say the markets have been calmed, but then it all erupts again.
Obviously you all know my theory - £400bn of Rishi splaffing (and wasting a lot) to get us through covid has maxxed out the credit - now they want to (unnecessarily, needlessly) try to get another £200bn more borrowing - the markets won’t calm till that plan is dead.
Or the £200bn becomes more like £20bn. Everything now turns on the future price of gas.
I don’t want to be really rude David, but you keep posting that “If gas falls sufficiently, the cost of the energy cap freeze drops” means don’t think you really understand it. That thinking is utter bollox.
1. We haven’t had an OBR how much Tories total promise is likely to cost. The Tories have promised to buck the UK energy market for two and a half years regardless what global energy price does. Some think tanks have had a go at pricing this and come to a quarter of a trillion pound. To be found by tax rises, borrowing or cuts or mixture thereof. Quarter of a trillion on that one policy alone. 2. Variable one. Energy prices can go down, yes, but also up, it’s a very fluid situation in supply and demand over this coming period - but at which point do energy companies need to commit to buying it in advance, so commit to passing on THAT price to both customers AND onto a government commitment to bucking the market? 3. Variable two. If global prices do come down, to what degree is the saving on the quarter of a trillion eaten into or obliterated by the more expensive borrowing costs? Out of these two variable’s, borrowing costs for this policy look certain to remain high now, the greater doubt is if energy prices will come down and stay down isn’t it?
You really think that whole £200bn comes down to £20bn? 🥹 We all know what’s really behind “but the bill freeze looks like turning out much cheaper because gas prices are coming down” argument we get spun from Tory’s on TV and on PB - they privately hate this lumbering Labour policy Tory party has adopted, they hate the ENORMOUS amount of borrowing maxing out UKs credit limit, and the regressive unConservative way the money is spewed out in indiscriminate handouts.
But. They are only fooling themselves spinning that comfort blanket, because, yes, there are variables, but the variables are very much against them.
Don’t be one of them.
There is no defence to this insane policy, Truss has been hiding behind all week.
I would agree we don't know what this policy is going to cost and I would agree that there are significant risks on the upside but there is also some reason for hope on the low side.
The government have committed to the average house bill being no more than £2500 a year. At the moment the price of gas futures are 263p/therm. It has been over 700p and has averaged around 400p of late. The cost of the UK subsidy is directly relational to that price against the price that fixes the £2500 pa average. I have been unable to work out exactly what that is because there are quite a number of other variables. Energy companies are bumping up their fixed charges as well. My best guess is that £2500 per household is going be equivalent to something like 200p/therm, roughly twice what it was last winter.
But I am not wrong is saying that there is a chance that the cost of the scheme will prove to be much lower than the worst estimates. It could also be higher of course. If it stays somewhere near our current price or goes even lower then the cost of the scheme will be less. If it goes back up again we are in trouble, no doubt about it.
Edit, and btw the OBR will have no better idea than the rest of us, it is simply unknowable.
You telling us It’s unknowable wasn’t the impression I got when you reduced it from £200bn to £20bn to spark my reply. 🙂
We know enough overall price can’t come down that much. Because the bit you seem to be avoiding is commodity price drop is to some extent offset by borrowing cost increase - goes back to the unknowable being very guessable in that the borrowing cost won’t be based on “maybe the commodity price drops and stays at x price”, who lends money on that basis?
You accept the part of the equation, political and economic, it is not necessary to provide help in this way, there other options such as sliding scale to target help where needed, not wasted where not needed, and virtually pays for itself?
I believe most UK government borrowing is fixed rate. So the increase only kicks in as new debt is issued.
Interesting the current (March) forecast it from debt interest this year to be c £83bn but to *fall* to £47bn next year… a cut in public spending baked in
If you listened to what the mini budget said - the Energy Price Freeze (a quarter of a trillion pounds) will be paid for by new borrowing, no new taxes no new cuts.
If you listed to what Liz Truss said Wednesday, public spending overall total will not show any cuts under her, simply because the quarter of a trillion Energy Price Freeze is being added to the public spending total.
What I am arguing in this thread, we don’t have to fund a quarter of a trillion pound scheme when other realistic options are available better targeted and virtually paying for themselves, I’m also arguing against those saying commodity price coming down proves the end bill will definitely be cheaper, because even with cuts even with more tax, this scheme will always need a huge amount of new borrowing at the new higher borrowing rates.
Correct me where wrong.
But I am now adding a third facet to my argument - anyone who claims Kwarteng and Truss mini budget crashed the markets I am calling an idiot peddling a myth. And I can prove it. That spiking gilt market graph they use over and over in media, expand it to see the previous 12 months and see the trajectory is up up up long before Truss got anywhere near number 10 - my argument is the budget exacerbated an already underlying problem. Anyone want to own the claim if the mini budget is reversed, annulled, reset, the trajectory on the borrowings chart graph would be down when it hasn’t been all year?
I’m arguing anyone who peddles Labour Party lies that Kwarteng and Truss mini budget crashed the markets I am calling an idiot peddling a myth, and sure I can win this argument.
I’ve been drinking all afternoon, don’t anyone want to take me on?
You're probably sleeping it off right now, but just in case, I will!
You and @Luckyguy1983 are making a similar argument, and its nonsense.
You're arguing two different things. The first is a straw man, and obviously false: "Anyone want to own the claim if the mini budget is reversed, annulled, reset, the trajectory on the borrowings chart graph would be down when it hasn’t been all year?" Nah, no thanks, the economy was already getting worse before the Trustterf*ck.
The second argument obviously doesn't follow: "I’m arguing anyone who peddles Labour Party lies that Kwarteng and Truss mini budget crashed the markets I am calling an idiot peddling a myth, and sure I can win this argument." Nah you can't. The markets were already pretty unhappy, they dropped a Trussterbomb in the middle of it. They bear full responsibility for moving the markets from 'err...we don't really like this
If I was to say, sorry about that clusterbomb I dropped last week, I'll just clean up all the shrapnel from my clusterbomb and pretend it never happened, the maimed children might have something to say about it.
Lucky for you, I’m still wide awake and drinking. 😵💫
Your post is just spin - you actually agree with my central point, that I’m right because you have to, but saying I’m wrong all over the place.
If Labour had held a budget the same day, without the tax cutting, I’m arguing what you call a Trusster fuck would still have happened. It would be a Starmerfuck. Because the fundamentals in the economy, the maxxed out credit card, cannot handle the quarter of a trillion extra for Energy hand outs, not simply the fundamental maths of it making the loan/borrowing risk - the markets don’t see a need for us to use this particular scheme. So when you break it down, The gilty graph has been on upward trajectory all year - fact if the mini budget is completely reversed the gilty trajectory will still be an upward trajectory, not downward - fact thus proving conclusively the idea Truss Kwasi budget crashed the economy is a myth, a myth peddled by Labour and their friends in the media and also mouthed by people who can’t think for themselves, the aim being to create a polling crash - because with just what the markets are doing without a polling crash, Kwarteng would still be there. Fact.
What we actually need to hear from Labour if they think they can form a government on Monday morning - why is the borrowing cost on an upward trajectory all year, long before the mini budget came along, and what policy do they have to put it on downward trajectory?
Hint. The answer is Labour are clueless on this, as Starmer agreed with Truss quarter of a billion of unnecessary further borrowing in the trap he fell into in last weeks PMQs.
and that I am without doubt winning this argument.
This is very annoying, because I kind of half agree with your point about the energy price guarantee, but if I admit that then you'll tell me you're 1000% winning the argument or something similar.
So, as I'm the sober one here, I'll attempt a compronise... - The fundamentals in the economy are a lot less 'fundamental' than you are arguing. Yeah, we are borrowing too much. But an astute politician could have presented something like the energy price guarantee with lots of reassuring noises and 'look over here' distraction tactics to sustain market confidence (e.g. an OBR forecast that suggested a reassuring medium-term picture). Perhaps the market reassurance would only have been for a period of time, but still. - It took political idiocy to try to get markets to take the strain of another big spending commitment (the energy price guarantee) whilst also refusing to do any of the reassuring noises or distraction tactics - in fact to do the opposite of simultaneously throwing any appearance of fiscal responsibility to the winds. - I agree it is possible that the energy price guarantee would have been the straw that breaks the camel's back regardless of the political window-dressing, but looking at e.g. debt-to-GDP ratios of major economies, it is very hard to argue that this moment, right now, is the moment when the UK's spending commitments become unaffordable. - And what happened after the budget was in no way simply a polling crash. Mortgage rates are the biggest real impact, but the pension funds are close behind.
Hmm...not sure that compromise will satisfy you, and I'm off to bed (I know, I know, it's before 9pm. That's my life with a two-year old and a pregnant wife) but this has been fun. Thanks.
Oh. There you were after all @maxh I must have had the Pringles in the way when you posted. 🫤
Line by line. “The fundamentals in the economy are a lot less 'fundamental' than you are arguing. But an astute politician could have” Nope. When you are maxed out on card, when you get the basket to the till the card process says UhUh! No amount of sweet talking can change the fundamentals of “no. You can’t afford it.”
“It took political idiocy to try to get markets to take the strain of another big spending commitment (the energy price guarantee) whilst also refusing to do any of the reassuring noises or distraction tactics - in fact to do the opposite of simultaneously throwing any appearance of fiscal responsibility to the winds.” All true. But the fundamentals fact is, whatever Starmer or Truss would have tried the answer would still have been no. Quarter of trillion in basket, credit worthiness a lot less than that, off goes the klaxons wobbly go the markets. If an OBR would have said you can’t put that in the basket and take it to the till, but you so want to play with the new credit card you’ve inherited with all your pirate liberterian ideas and create lovely growth growth growth becuase you are oh so clever - then you won’t even bother to engage an OBR to be told otherwise will you?
“the energy price guarantee would have been straw that breaks the camel's back regardless of the window-dressing, but looking at debt-to-GDP ratios of major economies, it is hard to argue that right now is the moment when the UK's spending commitments become unaffordable.” It’s a good question what our limit is. Some say 98.6% of GDP isn’t great, because we keep throwing more money at public services through borrowing, and high taxation, a sounder footing would be no more unless it’s funded by growth, yet what’s the Japan GDP % 200%+? Certainly we can’t get away with what USA can get away with, so shouldn’t be thinking we can merely copy them. I guess it’s a far bigger equation, how good are your assets, how exposed are you to coming commitments like a demographic time bomb. In which instance all countries will be in a different place. Or perhaps you could always borrow some money in, just that the bigger risk you are, the more maxxed out you are, the more basket case you are, the bigger the rates you have to pay back, which is sort of what’s happened. Which should make you think twice about expensive policies then - I don’t think Truss government have thought through the Energy Price Guarantee or perhaps even aware of alternatives, they really do seem to be in their own world and out of touch with impact of their own policies.
But it’s Labours problem too, they support this stupid policy, this won’t be forgotten.
Not much unanswerable response, I answered it. No I don’t accept your 50/50 compromise, you offered nothing to suggest other than your 100% defeat. But fair play for taking it on, everyone else on PB being frit on this argument.
In the mini thread above, it’s conceded to me We all agree a fire was already going. And We all agree What you refer to as a “trusster fuck” is a fire ongoing where gasoline was poured on hence flare up.
(A few way behind the curve still think there was no problem at all till the mini budget caused the problems - B Ark the lot of them)
What you need to agree, because it’s fact, The gasoline to cause clusterfuck was in large part quarter of a trillion loan for energy handout, and small part was the net minus thirteen billion budget redistributing wealth from workers to owners, owners with ideas and ambition but not the capital to match hence no growth in economy (says Trussism). (Net-13bn from 45bn cuts minus 2bn uturn minus 30bn stealth tax) Someone tried to argue there was zero stealth take back in £45bn giveaway growth budget, where did I get the ridiculous £30bn from? From the IFS actually.
Labour very unlikely to have done the 45bn/£13bn net tax change workers to owners switcheroo, but they do believe in the up to quarter of a trillion of borrowing at new expensive rates (minus a small percentage for windfall tax and a small percentage for other tax rises, but tax rising is limited now due to the politically maxxed out level of tax burden already) for a wrong headed and ruinous system of handouts - my argument, which is a winning argument, it’s now known as a Trussterfuck only because she was PM not Loto, whilst Starmer’s budget would also have poured a lot of gasoline on the same fire with similar result, and it would have been known the Starmerfuck - and Ninja Libertarian Truss as LOTO would now be steaming ahead in the polls, with this same ethos and policy agenda.
Hunt was 48 on BF for next leader yesterday lunchtime when I bet on him.
Now 4.8
Has an MP ever come in faster on the betting?
Given Hunt was eliminated in the first MPs round of voting in the leadership contest and polled worse than Sunak with members let alone Truss or Badenoch, I fail to see how he gets it. Chancellor is probably the highest post he is going to have
That he was out so early ironically makes him more likely a compromise candidate for me, in seeking to secure a coronation. He didn't get involved in the argy bargy of the debates.
Contrarily, whilst people might want to avoid the members voting this time, picking the guy they most definitely rejected, would make crowning Sunak quite the provocation to them.
If there is a Tory leader Farage would be licking his lips over, it is Hunt.
Farage would return to lead RefUK in 5 minutes if Hunt took over.
Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
You appear to be saying that the Tories can only choose a leader that is approved of by Farage. Given the current state of the membership you may be correct. It is however a recipe for disaster for the Conservative Party.
In Spring 2019 they had a leader not approved of by Farage and were in 3rd place, by December they had a leader who won back voters from Farage and a landslide general election victory.
Nearly all Remainers are now voting for Starmer Labour or the LDs or SNP, so if they split Leavers with Farage under FPTP the Tories are doomed
You are living in the past - Since Brexit has come to pass the ERG Tories + RefUK + UKIP aren't polling 30% between them anymore. You are like bald men arguing over a comb.
It is who wins the majority of that 30% though which is key.
Labour got 29% in 2010, 30% in 2015 and 32% in 2019 (albeit with an aberration 40% in 2019) but unlike the Tories there was never really a threat of the Greens say overtaking them on the left, as there could be with Farage on the right
It doesn’t matter who gets the majority of this 30% to who can get the keys to No. 10. If you’re fighting over the 30%, you’re not winning elections. The way back for the Tories is to appeal to the centre.
Forget the centre, the centre went to Starmer months ago and is not coming back anytime soon whoever the Tories leader is. Forget winning the next election, that is also gone now.
The focus for the Tories now is holding the right and avoiding extinction, because if Farage overtakes them they will effectively die as a party
You will never win from the right just as Corbyn demonstrated from the left
The country is utterly weary of the hard right and left, and you will soon be a dinosaur
Thatcher won from the right, Attlee won from the left, as did Wilson and Corbyn got very close to it in 2017 too.
The centre does not always win every general election
As a purely historical matter rather than a debating point, Attlee had been in charge of domestic policy for a half-decade before he became PM, and his cabinet included the left but was not dominated by it. He also had a bunch of rows with the real left, and ended up expelling almost half a dozen anti-Nato MPs who would have been predecessors to Corbyn's sympathies.
Attlee also nationalised half the economy, expanded the welfare state and introduced the NHS and the top rate of income tax was 90% under his government.
Sensible policies for a happier Britain, Baldrick
I think it actually Prince George saying it to Blackadder...
Hunt was 48 on BF for next leader yesterday lunchtime when I bet on him.
Now 4.8
Has an MP ever come in faster on the betting?
Given Hunt was eliminated in the first MPs round of voting in the leadership contest and polled worse than Sunak with members let alone Truss or Badenoch, I fail to see how he gets it. Chancellor is probably the highest post he is going to have
That he was out so early ironically makes him more likely a compromise candidate for me, in seeking to secure a coronation. He didn't get involved in the argy bargy of the debates.
Contrarily, whilst people might want to avoid the members voting this time, picking the guy they most definitely rejected, would make crowning Sunak quite the provocation to them.
If there is a Tory leader Farage would be licking his lips over, it is Hunt.
Farage would return to lead RefUK in 5 minutes if Hunt took over.
Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
You appear to be saying that the Tories can only choose a leader that is approved of by Farage. Given the current state of the membership you may be correct. It is however a recipe for disaster for the Conservative Party.
In Spring 2019 they had a leader not approved of by Farage and were in 3rd place, by December they had a leader who won back voters from Farage and a landslide general election victory.
Nearly all Remainers are now voting for Starmer Labour or the LDs or SNP, so if they split Leavers with Farage under FPTP the Tories are doomed
You are living in the past - Since Brexit has come to pass the ERG Tories + RefUK + UKIP aren't polling 30% between them anymore. You are like bald men arguing over a comb.
It is who wins the majority of that 30% though which is key.
Labour got 29% in 2010, 30% in 2015 and 32% in 2019 (albeit with an aberration 40% in 2019) but unlike the Tories there was never really a threat of the Greens say overtaking them on the left, as there could be with Farage on the right
It doesn’t matter who gets the majority of this 30% to who can get the keys to No. 10. If you’re fighting over the 30%, you’re not winning elections. The way back for the Tories is to appeal to the centre.
Forget the centre, the centre went to Starmer months ago and is not coming back anytime soon whoever the Tories leader is. Forget winning the next election, that is also gone now.
The focus for the Tories now is holding the right and avoiding extinction, because if Farage overtakes them they will effectively die as a party
You will never win from the right just as Corbyn demonstrated from the left
The country is utterly weary of the hard right and left, and you will soon be a dinosaur
Thatcher won from the right, Attlee won from the left, as did Wilson and Corbyn got very close to it in 2017 too.
The centre does not always win every general election
As a purely historical matter rather than a debating point, Attlee had been in charge of domestic policy for a half-decade before he became PM, and his cabinet included the left but was not dominated by it. He also had a bunch of rows with the real left, and ended up expelling almost half a dozen anti-Nato MPs who would have been predecessors to Corbyn's sympathies.
Attlee also nationalised half the economy, expanded the welfare state and introduced the NHS and the top rate of income tax was 90% under his government.
Rarely in politics is it easy to draw a direct line from a single policy decision to the harm it’s done, but in this case, it will be simple. If any woman or girl suffers voyeurism, sexual harassment, assault or rape in consequence of the Scottish government’s lax new rules, the blame will rest squarely with those at Holyrood who ignored safeguarding experts and women’s campaigners.
And nobody should be held to higher account than the first minister, the “real feminist” who’s riding roughshod over the rights of women and girls.
They should get real, the necessary 45% corporation tax rate or 50-something% tax on workers they hate would crucify the economy. Indefinite borrowing and cheap energy are over.
Does anyone think the triple lock on pensions will be inside the scope of the 'difficult decisions' referred to by Hunt?
Hunt was 48 on BF for next leader yesterday lunchtime when I bet on him.
Now 4.8
Has an MP ever come in faster on the betting?
Given Hunt was eliminated in the first MPs round of voting in the leadership contest and polled worse than Sunak with members let alone Truss or Badenoch, I fail to see how he gets it. Chancellor is probably the highest post he is going to have
That he was out so early ironically makes him more likely a compromise candidate for me, in seeking to secure a coronation. He didn't get involved in the argy bargy of the debates.
Contrarily, whilst people might want to avoid the members voting this time, picking the guy they most definitely rejected, would make crowning Sunak quite the provocation to them.
If there is a Tory leader Farage would be licking his lips over, it is Hunt.
Farage would return to lead RefUK in 5 minutes if Hunt took over.
Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
You appear to be saying that the Tories can only choose a leader that is approved of by Farage. Given the current state of the membership you may be correct. It is however a recipe for disaster for the Conservative Party.
In Spring 2019 they had a leader not approved of by Farage and were in 3rd place, by December they had a leader who won back voters from Farage and a landslide general election victory.
Nearly all Remainers are now voting for Starmer Labour or the LDs or SNP, so if they split Leavers with Farage under FPTP the Tories are doomed
You are living in the past - Since Brexit has come to pass the ERG Tories + RefUK + UKIP aren't polling 30% between them anymore. You are like bald men arguing over a comb.
It is who wins the majority of that 30% though which is key.
Labour got 29% in 2010, 30% in 2015 and 32% in 2019 (albeit with an aberration 40% in 2019) but unlike the Tories there was never really a threat of the Greens say overtaking them on the left, as there could be with Farage on the right
It doesn’t matter who gets the majority of this 30% to who can get the keys to No. 10. If you’re fighting over the 30%, you’re not winning elections. The way back for the Tories is to appeal to the centre.
Forget the centre, the centre went to Starmer months ago and is not coming back anytime soon whoever the Tories leader is. Forget winning the next election, that is also gone now.
The focus for the Tories now is holding the right and avoiding extinction, because if Farage overtakes them they will effectively die as a party
You will never win from the right just as Corbyn demonstrated from the left
The country is utterly weary of the hard right and left, and you will soon be a dinosaur
Thatcher won from the right, Attlee won from the left, as did Wilson and Corbyn got very close to it in 2017 too.
The centre does not always win every general election
As a purely historical matter rather than a debating point, Attlee had been in charge of domestic policy for a half-decade before he became PM, and his cabinet included the left but was not dominated by it. He also had a bunch of rows with the real left, and ended up expelling almost half a dozen anti-Nato MPs who would have been predecessors to Corbyn's sympathies.
Attlee also nationalised half the economy, expanded the welfare state and introduced the NHS and the top rate of income tax was 90% under his government.
Sensible policies for a happier Britain, Baldrick
I think it actually Prince George saying it to Blackadder...
Last week the RAF used a £12m UAS (MQ-4B Reaper) and £120,000 missile (AGM-114 Hellfire) to do the extra-judicial execution of one raggy lad on a motorbike in Iraq. Supposed to be "ISIS" but whatever...
While they can afford to do stupid, pointless shit like that they've got too much money.
I assume these missiles have use before dates though, so really we have to use 'em somewhere.
Wallace "rethinking" his family reasons for not being PM says Mail tonight.
Game on.
Yeah. But is he any good? I see relatively little evidence. Other than he hasn't yet proved to be totally incompetent. Rather like Liz.
He doesn't have that burning desire to be PM that should exclude most people from being PM. You know, those who "think they'd be quite good at it."
A degree of humility we haven't seen at the top of politics in quite a long time.
FWIW, I think going for Wallace will be a mistake as he is completely untested in the public eye at the most senior levels.
If Tories want to save enough seats to be back in contention by 2029 then it has to be Sunak or Hunt.
But the party is almost certainly too far gone down the rabbit hole for that.
Wallace at least would not risk leaking Tory voters en masse to Farage as Hunt would
Look at the polls. You’ve already leaked them.
The choice now for the Tories is between heavy defeat or extinction. Wallace at least avoids extinction and the Tories live to fight again. Hunt however may not and our main right of centre party may be one in future led by Nigel Farage and his followers if that occurred, ultimately taking over the rump of the Tories a la Canada after the Canadian Tories rout in 1993 and replacement by the populist Reform as the main party of the right
Firstly, there are more possible outcomes than Wallace or Hunt. Truss may hang on. We could have Sunak, or Mordaunt.
Secondly, Wallace is much loved because he’s defence minister during a war. I am entirely unclear what his policies on anything else are. Maybe they’ll be the same as Hunt’s.
What you are basically arguing for is a continuation of Truss’s policies, which is what got the Tories into this mess in the first place. If Truss’s policies were electorally or financially viable, she would’ve stuck with them instead of being forced into a series of embarrassing U-turns.
This hits the nail on the head. He's telling us going against Truss's ideas will kill the party, but the party is being killed right now for those ideas.
The party is still the clear second placed party in the polls, if they continue with higher taxes, Hunt now suggesting will include a reversal in the cut in the basic income tax rate which was actually popular and add spending cuts on top of that, which will go down terribly in the redwall and fail to get a grip on immigration then they may not even have that. Farage is watching and waiting, a Hunt led government of tax rising, spending cutting technocrats is his ideal scenario.
The 45p cut to the additional rate may have needed to go as unaffordable and politically damaging, the cut to the basic rate did not
Maybe it ought to be Wallace as leader and Sunak as chancellor again.
Re: some people here thinking that if Hunt tries to stand unopposed, that someone like Kemi/Braverman would challenge them now.
Both Kemi/Braverman have age on their side. If you're them, you might even want 2024 to be a defeat - but not the wipeout that is currently predicted.
If the next few years see a movement for rejoin, that persuades Starmer to go for SM membership or similar, there's a very easy narrative for a Kemi type to spin. "Betrayal!!" etc etc - and a much more winnable 2029 than 2024 ever would be.
It can only be a coronation as going out to the membership is out of the question
What's the point of being a member if you can't vote for the leader?
Party members did not have a vote until IDS was elected in 2001.
The United Nations has rejected a bid led by Stonewall to downgrade Britain’s equality watchdog to the status of equivalent bodies in Azerbaijan and Bahrain.
The Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) will retain its A-status despite allegations that it is failing to sufficiently protect trans rights.
Campaign groups led by Stonewall, the equalities charity, and the Good Law Project, headed by the barrister Jolyon Maugham,
...A new, electric version of the largest Mini model, the Countryman, will, BMW has confirmed, be manufactured at its plant in Leipzig....
...BMW’s decision comes after reports that Britain’s only planned large-scale battery factory, being built by Britishvolt in the north-east of England, will go bust if it does not receive a £200m rescue package.
Only a year ago, Boris Johnson, then prime minister, promised at the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow, to fund a “£1bn electric car revolution” in the UK “creating hundreds of thousands of jobs”. His predecessor, Theresa May, intended that Britain would become “a world leader” in electric vehicle manufacturing and made it one of the “pillars” of her short-lived industrial strategy.
Kwasi Kwarteng, who was sacked as chancellor on Friday and replaced by Jeremy Hunt, said last year when he was business secretary that the electrified automotive industry would be “front and centre of Britain building back better”....
A spokesman from BMW is quoted in the Times this morning saying it will be brought back to the UK when a purpose-built electric-only production line is ready.
Could be just words, of course, but BMW claim the move is not permanent.
Meanwhile, MINI cabriolet production is being moved from the Netherlands to Cowley.
Now bottom of 10th inning, still 0-0 Houston v Seattle.
IF the Mariners score now, they win. If not, extra innings continue to 11th.
IF they do win, Seattle fans get one more home game tomorrow. If not, their post-season is over.
At what point do you have a Super Over?
No clue what that is. In baseball, they keep playing until somebody wins.
"Baseball goes into extra innings. The way baseball works is that if a game is tied after nine innings, the game will continue until one of the teams is winning after the end of the inning. If they are still tied after the end of an inning then the game will go into the next inning."
A spokesman from BMW is quoted in the Times this morning saying it will be brought back to the UK when a purpose-built electric-only production line is ready.
Could be just words, of course, but BMW claim the move is not permanent.
Meanwhile, MINI cabriolet production is being moved from the Netherlands to Cowley.
Yeah... when BMW binned off Solihull and Longbridge they promised 100% of Mini production would always be at Cowley.
I reckon they'll sell Cowley to Great Wall. The IC engine plant at Hams Hall is doomed no matter who owns it.
Baseball games can be played on more than one day, for example: "The Pawtucket Red Sox and the Rochester Red Wings, two teams from the Triple-A International League, played the longest game in professional baseball history. It lasted 33 innings, with 8 hours and 25 minutes of playing time. 32 innings were played April 18–19, 1981, at McCoy Stadium in Pawtucket, Rhode Island, and the final 33rd inning was played June 23, 1981. Pawtucket won the game, 3–2." (Links omitted.)
Brooklyn Robins 1, Boston Braves 1 on May 1, 1920 – 26 innings
Note that game DID in a tie that evening, after it got too dark to play. This before artificial lighting at baseball parks. AND apparently before rules cited by Jim Miller.
A spokesman from BMW is quoted in the Times this morning saying it will be brought back to the UK when a purpose-built electric-only production line is ready.
Could be just words, of course, but BMW claim the move is not permanent.
Meanwhile, MINI cabriolet production is being moved from the Netherlands to Cowley.
Yeah... when BMW binned off Solihull and Longbridge they promised 100% of Mini production would always be at Cowley.
I reckon they'll sell Cowley to Great Wall. The IC engine plant at Hams Hall is doomed no matter who owns it.
I was surprised at the claim that BMW don’t have an electric platform small enough for the mini, so have to use Great Wall’s. Presumably they would want to share a future mini electic platform with the 1 series?
Hunt was 48 on BF for next leader yesterday lunchtime when I bet on him.
Now 4.8
Has an MP ever come in faster on the betting?
Given Hunt was eliminated in the first MPs round of voting in the leadership contest and polled worse than Sunak with members let alone Truss or Badenoch, I fail to see how he gets it. Chancellor is probably the highest post he is going to have
That he was out so early ironically makes him more likely a compromise candidate for me, in seeking to secure a coronation. He didn't get involved in the argy bargy of the debates.
Contrarily, whilst people might want to avoid the members voting this time, picking the guy they most definitely rejected, would make crowning Sunak quite the provocation to them.
If there is a Tory leader Farage would be licking his lips over, it is Hunt.
Farage would return to lead RefUK in 5 minutes if Hunt took over.
Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
You appear to be saying that the Tories can only choose a leader that is approved of by Farage. Given the current state of the membership you may be correct. It is however a recipe for disaster for the Conservative Party.
In Spring 2019 they had a leader not approved of by Farage and were in 3rd place, by December they had a leader who won back voters from Farage and a landslide general election victory.
Nearly all Remainers are now voting for Starmer Labour or the LDs or SNP, so if they split Leavers with Farage under FPTP the Tories are doomed
You are living in the past - Since Brexit has come to pass the ERG Tories + RefUK + UKIP aren't polling 30% between them anymore. You are like bald men arguing over a comb.
It is who wins the majority of that 30% though which is key.
Labour got 29% in 2010, 30% in 2015 and 32% in 2019 (albeit with an aberration 40% in 2019) but unlike the Tories there was never really a threat of the Greens say overtaking them on the left, as there could be with Farage on the right
It doesn’t matter who gets the majority of this 30% to who can get the keys to No. 10. If you’re fighting over the 30%, you’re not winning elections. The way back for the Tories is to appeal to the centre.
Forget the centre, the centre went to Starmer months ago and is not coming back anytime soon whoever the Tories leader is. Forget winning the next election, that is also gone now.
The focus for the Tories now is holding the right and avoiding extinction, because if Farage overtakes them they will effectively die as a party
Farage has retired from frontline politics. I think it makes more sense to fight for those centre voters than to fear a bogeyman on the populist Right will steal their remaining support.
Interesting post that I hadn't thought of. I don't know if it's true and of course someone else might appear on the right, but so far nobody else has got anywhere near filling Farage's boots, so you might well have a very astute observation.
Hunt was 48 on BF for next leader yesterday lunchtime when I bet on him.
Now 4.8
Has an MP ever come in faster on the betting?
Given Hunt was eliminated in the first MPs round of voting in the leadership contest and polled worse than Sunak with members let alone Truss or Badenoch, I fail to see how he gets it. Chancellor is probably the highest post he is going to have
That he was out so early ironically makes him more likely a compromise candidate for me, in seeking to secure a coronation. He didn't get involved in the argy bargy of the debates.
Contrarily, whilst people might want to avoid the members voting this time, picking the guy they most definitely rejected, would make crowning Sunak quite the provocation to them.
If there is a Tory leader Farage would be licking his lips over, it is Hunt.
Farage would return to lead RefUK in 5 minutes if Hunt took over.
Farage should just retire already. He's got his most important policy through, does he really want to spend his time setting up and running fractious parties to act as a pressure group on the Tories, rather than just be a pundit?
Farage would definitely run on a low tax, hard Brexit, tough on immigration and channel crossings and anti Woke agenda against Starmer and Hunt who he would portray as near identical centrist, corporatist Remainers
You appear to be saying that the Tories can only choose a leader that is approved of by Farage. Given the current state of the membership you may be correct. It is however a recipe for disaster for the Conservative Party.
In Spring 2019 they had a leader not approved of by Farage and were in 3rd place, by December they had a leader who won back voters from Farage and a landslide general election victory.
Nearly all Remainers are now voting for Starmer Labour or the LDs or SNP, so if they split Leavers with Farage under FPTP the Tories are doomed
You are living in the past - Since Brexit has come to pass the ERG Tories + RefUK + UKIP aren't polling 30% between them anymore. You are like bald men arguing over a comb.
It is who wins the majority of that 30% though which is key.
Labour got 29% in 2010, 30% in 2015 and 32% in 2019 (albeit with an aberration 40% in 2019) but unlike the Tories there was never really a threat of the Greens say overtaking them on the left, as there could be with Farage on the right
It doesn’t matter who gets the majority of this 30% to who can get the keys to No. 10. If you’re fighting over the 30%, you’re not winning elections. The way back for the Tories is to appeal to the centre.
Forget the centre, the centre went to Starmer months ago and is not coming back anytime soon whoever the Tories leader is. Forget winning the next election, that is also gone now.
The focus for the Tories now is holding the right and avoiding extinction, because if Farage overtakes them they will effectively die as a party
Farage has retired from frontline politics. I think it makes more sense to fight for those centre voters than to fear a bogeyman on the populist Right will steal their remaining support.
Interesting post that I hadn't thought of. I don't know if it's true and of course someone else might appear on the right, but so far nobody else has got anywhere near filling Farage's boots, so you might well have a very astute observation.
I'd fill his boots......with concrete, and drop him in the Thames.
Rarely in politics is it easy to draw a direct line from a single policy decision to the harm it’s done, but in this case, it will be simple. If any woman or girl suffers voyeurism, sexual harassment, assault or rape in consequence of the Scottish government’s lax new rules, the blame will rest squarely with those at Holyrood who ignored safeguarding experts and women’s campaigners.
And nobody should be held to higher account than the first minister, the “real feminist” who’s riding roughshod over the rights of women and girls.
Comments
What's their policy on Stamp Duty?
Both Kemi/Braverman have age on their side. If you're them, you might even want 2024 to be a defeat - but not the wipeout that is currently predicted.
If the next few years see a movement for rejoin, that persuades Starmer to go for SM membership or similar, there's a very easy narrative for a Kemi type to spin. "Betrayal!!" etc etc - and a much more winnable 2029 than 2024 ever would be.
The centre does not always win every general election
Line by line.
“The fundamentals in the economy are a lot less 'fundamental' than you are arguing. But an astute politician could have” Nope. When you are maxed out on card, when you get the basket to the till the card process says UhUh! No amount of sweet talking can change the fundamentals of “no. You can’t afford it.”
“It took political idiocy to try to get markets to take the strain of another big spending commitment (the energy price guarantee) whilst also refusing to do any of the reassuring noises or distraction tactics - in fact to do the opposite of simultaneously throwing any appearance of fiscal responsibility to the winds.” All true. But the fundamentals fact is, whatever Starmer or Truss would have tried the answer would still have been no. Quarter of trillion in basket, credit worthiness a lot less than that, off goes the klaxons wobbly go the markets. If an OBR would have said you can’t put that in the basket and take it to the till, but you so want to play with the new credit card you’ve inherited with all your pirate liberterian ideas and create lovely growth growth growth becuase you are oh so clever - then you won’t even bother to engage an OBR to be told otherwise will you?
“the energy price guarantee would have been straw that breaks the camel's back regardless of the window-dressing, but looking at debt-to-GDP ratios of major economies, it is hard to argue that right now is the moment when the UK's spending commitments become unaffordable.”
It’s a good question what our limit is. Some say 98.6% of GDP isn’t great, because we keep throwing more money at public services through borrowing, and high taxation, a sounder footing would be no more unless it’s funded by growth, yet what’s the Japan GDP % 200%+?
Certainly we can’t get away with what USA can get away with, so shouldn’t be thinking we can merely copy them. I guess it’s a far bigger equation, how good are your assets, how exposed are you to coming commitments like a demographic time bomb. In which instance all countries will be in a different place. Or perhaps you could always borrow some money in, just that the bigger risk you are, the more maxxed out you are, the more basket case you are, the bigger the rates you have to pay back, which is sort of what’s happened. Which should make you think twice about expensive policies then - I don’t think Truss government have thought through the Energy Price Guarantee or perhaps even aware of alternatives, they really do seem to be in their own world and out of touch with impact of their own policies.
But it’s Labours problem too, they support this stupid policy, this won’t be forgotten.
Not much unanswerable response, I answered it. No I don’t accept your 50/50 compromise, you offered nothing to suggest other than your 100% defeat.
But fair play for taking it on, everyone else on PB being frit on this argument.
Anyway, obviously Attlee wasn't on the left of the Labour party, but that doesn't mean he wasn't on the left in a broader sense.
It's worth bearing in mind that the 1945 manifesto stated Labour's ambition was to create a Socialist Commonwealth of Great Britain.
Pensions, benefits, all unsettled public sector pay deals etc.
Heavily spin the “fairness” angle, which should help keep the public onside for when some unions don’t play ball.
This is his misery budget. The key is to make everyone equally depressed.
No rabbits. No hats. Noone can be seen to escape the pain.
It will be economics and wages and inflation and and mortgages and tax.
Nothing else will get a look in.
While they can afford to do stupid, pointless shit like that they've got too much money.
She’s not ~92% certain to go in the next 14 1/2 months.
Those odds are just wrong.
Series stands at Houston 2 versus Seattle 0, so Mariners must win today OR will be eliminated, after first playoff game in two decades.
The Protagonist: A what?
Ives: Pincer movement. But not in space, in time. Half his team moves forward through the event. He monitors them and then attacks at the end moving backwards. Knowing everything.
Do baseball fans enjoy the low scoring or high scoring games more ?
More tension in the first but more excitement in the latter I'll guess.
A period, by the way, which included a much higher membership.
Argue that they cannot go back to that, fine, but let's not keep pretending there is no point to being a member if you cannot vote for the leader.
https://esrcpartymembersprojectorg.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/sn05125_hoc_membershipofukpoliticalparties.pdf
Most fans like high scoring games, some like low-scoring pitching battle, but ALL fans want their team to win.
Crowd at THIS game is all-hepped up by fact that post-season baseball games in Seattle are rare indeed!
(A few way behind the curve still think there was no problem at all till the mini budget caused the problems - B Ark the lot of them)
What you need to agree, because it’s fact, The gasoline to cause clusterfuck was in large part quarter of a trillion loan for energy handout, and small part was the net minus thirteen billion budget redistributing wealth from workers to owners, owners with ideas and ambition but not the capital to match hence no growth in economy (says Trussism).
(Net-13bn from 45bn cuts minus 2bn uturn minus 30bn stealth tax)
Someone tried to argue there was zero stealth take back in £45bn giveaway growth budget, where did I get the ridiculous £30bn from? From the IFS actually.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/06/ifs-millions-in-britain-face-stealth-tax-raid-under-liz-trusss-plans
Labour very unlikely to have done the 45bn/£13bn net tax change workers to owners switcheroo, but they do believe in the up to quarter of a trillion of borrowing at new expensive rates (minus a small percentage for windfall tax and a small percentage for other tax rises, but tax rising is limited now due to the politically maxxed out level of tax burden already) for a wrong headed and ruinous system of handouts - my argument, which is a winning argument, it’s now known as a Trussterfuck only because she was PM not Loto, whilst Starmer’s budget would also have poured a lot of gasoline on the same fire with similar result, and it would have been known the Starmerfuck - and Ninja Libertarian Truss as LOTO would now be steaming ahead in the polls, with this same ethos and policy agenda.
What bit of all this is not fact?
Come on. I’m still awake.
But imo she will resign on Monday.
Probably in time for lunchtime news.
Thanks for trying to correct me though
IF the Mariners score now, they win. If not, extra innings continue to 11th.
IF they do win, Seattle fans get one more home game tomorrow. If not, their post-season is over.
The United Nations has rejected a bid led by Stonewall to downgrade Britain’s equality watchdog to the status of equivalent bodies in Azerbaijan and Bahrain.
The Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) will retain its A-status despite allegations that it is failing to sufficiently protect trans rights.
Campaign groups led by Stonewall, the equalities charity, and the Good Law Project, headed by the barrister Jolyon Maugham,
https://archive.ph/2022.10.15-194108/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/15/un-rejects-stonewalls-bid-downgrade-britains-equality-watchdog/
BMW to axe UK production of electric Mini and relocate to China
Cowley factory on outskirts of Oxford not up to challenge of creating electric vehicles, says Mini boss
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/15/bmw-axe-uk-production-electric-mini-relocate-china
...A new, electric version of the largest Mini model, the Countryman, will, BMW has confirmed, be manufactured at its plant in Leipzig....
...BMW’s decision comes after reports that Britain’s only planned large-scale battery factory, being built by Britishvolt in the north-east of England, will go bust if it does not receive a £200m rescue package.
Only a year ago, Boris Johnson, then prime minister, promised at the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow, to fund a “£1bn electric car revolution” in the UK “creating hundreds of thousands of jobs”. His predecessor, Theresa May, intended that Britain would become “a world leader” in electric vehicle manufacturing and made it one of the “pillars” of her short-lived industrial strategy.
Kwasi Kwarteng, who was sacked as chancellor on Friday and replaced by Jeremy Hunt, said last year when he was business secretary that the electrified automotive industry would be “front and centre of Britain building back better”....
Could be just words, of course, but BMW claim the move is not permanent.
Meanwhile, MINI cabriolet production is being moved from the Netherlands to Cowley.
"Baseball goes into extra innings. The way baseball works is that if a game is tied after nine innings, the game will continue until one of the teams is winning after the end of the inning. If they are still tied after the end of an inning then the game will go into the next inning."
I reckon they'll sell Cowley to Great Wall. The IC engine plant at Hams Hall is doomed no matter who owns it.
(Links omitted.)
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longest_professional_baseball_game
Triple-A is the highest level of minor league play.
Brooklyn Robins 1, Boston Braves 1 on May 1, 1920 – 26 innings
Note that game DID in a tie that evening, after it got too dark to play. This before artificial lighting at baseball parks. AND apparently before rules cited by Jim Miller.
https://twitter.com/ehrc/status/1580927984604962818?s=46&t=mFlfkQy4kZ8srf6FC2Xj2w
IF you think that lack of scoring means nothing is happening, you could NOT be further from the truth.