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Rishi back as betting favourite for next PM – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited October 2022 in General
imageRishi back as betting favourite for next PM – politicalbetting.com

Rishi Sunak, who was the long-term betting favourite for the Tory leadership last time but got beaten by Liz Truss, is now back in the favourites slot following the current turmoil in the Tory Party.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    This isn't sustainable
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,073

    Chris Bryant
    @RhonddaBryant
    ·
    55m
    There isn’t a unity candidate for Tory leader. It’s not a united party. It can’t govern.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,683
    It's a meltdown! 👿
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,665
    edited October 2022
    Surprised that BW is down on 5%. Plenty of tories on here dream of rubbing their nutsacks on his shiny pate.

    I have more chance of being PM than Captain Mordaunt, RNR and I'd be fucking terrible at it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,270
    londonpubman said:

    It's a meltdown! 👿

    Truss and Kwarteng's resignations are required either voluntary or forced by their mps

    Act now and end this pair's tenure
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    londonpubman said:

    It's a meltdown! 👿

    Truss and Kwarteng's resignations are required either voluntary or forced by their mps

    Act now and end this pair's tenure
    My instinct is that they will hang on for as long as they can. Their misplaced confidence and self-delusion are in inverse proportion to their competence.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    One v unhappy backbencher tonight predicts “I suspect she’ll be gone within weeks”, adding: “The libertarian freakshows from Tufton St need to accept that their entryism has failed. It’s going to be nipped in the bud. From now on their pamphlets will go back to gathering dust.”
    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1580690575543500802
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    NEW Two in three (67%) are dissatisfied with @trussliz and 16% are satisfied. Her net satisfaction score of -51 is worse than the lowest scores achieved by @BorisJohnson
    https://twitter.com/benatipsos/status/1580847258110930945
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Surprised that BW is down on 5%. Plenty of tories on here dream of rubbing their nutsacks on his shiny pate.

    I have more chance of being PM than Captain Mordaunt, RNR and I'd be fucking terrible at it.

    Your ability to do the job is not necessarily linked to your chances of getting it.

    Exhibit A - Liz Truss.
    The argument against MPs picking a new leader is that members will be upset that their choice is neglected.

    The argument against members picking the leader is they fucked up.

    The point of the leadership campaign is that the candidates can be vetted, tested, challenged.

    The campaign revealed that Truss would be a fucking disaster. The members had a duty to reject her.

    They did not.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,965
    MoonRabbit said:

    On topic. PB is great. But at times it does get swallowed whole by a media narrative, rather than trying to cut through hyperbole and take out the facts.

    Going back to the last contest and choosing the two MPs backed other than Truss is very flawed. To start with they only have those positions if another contest run today has the same runners and riders. What if Wallace entered this time, would they end up with those numbers?

    It also misses the point they started as hot favourites and under whelmed in the contest. In the first phase Mourdant didn’t shine as a communicator for the main reason she didn’t have a vision to communicate, she was an empty vessel. In the second phase Rishi made it easier for Truss by also not communicating very well, but also being all over the place on policy. If you remember he kept re launching his policy positions to look more like trusts to try and catch up.

    A Penny Rish dream ticket is an utter fallacy not grounded in realpolitik.

    I don't see any of them turning it around.

    Wallace doesn't want to run, I suspect, because it isn't a job he wants. Or probably, would be good at. Who would really want the current poison chalice?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    Only 10 hours before his sharp exit from the IMF Chancellor spoke to UK broadcasters, I got to ask him the questions- got no sense of a pitch roll for a u-turn, asked him if it was humiliating to have his Budget “filleted” by Number 10 while he was in DC, and how long he’d be Cx https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580848373414125568 https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1580848373414125568/video/1
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,751
    This seems like an obvious "lay the favourite" situation. They can't pick the person who came second in the leadership vote and was rejected by the members.

    They need someone who was defeated more heavily, preferably someone who was too much of a hopeless case to even run.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,663
    MoonRabbit said:

    On topic. PB is great. But at times it does get swallowed whole by a media narrative, rather than trying to cut through hyperbole and take out the facts.

    Going back to the last contest and choosing the two MPs backed other than Truss is very flawed. To start with they only have those positions if another contest run today has the same runners and riders. What if Wallace entered this time, would they end up with those numbers?

    It also misses the point they started as hot favourites and under whelmed in the contest. In the first phase Mourdant didn’t shine as a communicator for the main reason she didn’t have a vision to communicate, she was an empty vessel. In the second phase Rishi made it easier for Truss by also not communicating very well, but also being all over the place on policy. If you remember he kept re launching his policy positions to look more like trusts to try and catch up.

    A Penny Rish dream ticket is an utter fallacy not grounded in realpolitik.

    Realpolitik is that the current incumbents are a disaster, and Sunak has been Chancellor without previously precipitating a meltdown on the markets.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    💥 Inside No10: Liz Truss prepares for a U-turn but fears what comes next.

    "It would mean she is politically finished as a project. What would be the point of a Truss government if it isn’t doing radical economic reform?”

    Latest @FinancialTimes analysis https://www.ft.com/content/062bb647-14fa-4e8d-bb2f-397edada5dc2
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,560
    On membership involvement, I'd let the MPs (or members, but harder to organise, perhaps) do the nominations, members whittle it down to two (or three) by some form of preference voting, e.g. AV and then MPs get the final say. Relies on enough sanity among the members to put someone sensible in the top two, but even the Tory members gave Sunak a fair number of votes this time round. Let the MPs nominate with a reasonably high threshold to keep out most of the loons (assuming they've learned from Labour and Corbyn and don't nominate to 'widen the debate').

    Or disenfranchise the members entirely, but then why bother with membership at all, I guess?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,287
    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Surprised that BW is down on 5%. Plenty of tories on here dream of rubbing their nutsacks on his shiny pate.

    I have more chance of being PM than Captain Mordaunt, RNR and I'd be fucking terrible at it.

    Your ability to do the job is not necessarily linked to your chances of getting it.

    Exhibit A - Liz Truss.
    Arguably, there's an inverse correlation. Truss's burning desire to do the job and say silly things to get it are why she shouldn't have got the job. Same for BoJo.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    There was no consensus in Truss’s team about what precise elements of Kwarteng’s fiscal statement should be dropped and how soon.

    Some think civil servants have taken control. “The U-turn has been briefed out before the policy was decided,” one said.

    https://www.ft.com/content/062bb647-14fa-4e8d-bb2f-397edada5dc2


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,000
    I think Kwarteng will go. Truss will sacrifice him for the greater good. She will then desperately try to bring together a government of unity within the party but I doubt Sunak or Hunt will play. Her position is ultimately untenable but it may take a time for her to come to terms with that.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 415
    In industry, commerce, education, the police etc, dud incumbents usually retire on "health grounds." Maybe that's an elegant way for her to stand down?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,194
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    londonpubman said:

    It's a meltdown! 👿

    Truss and Kwarteng's resignations are required either voluntary or forced by their mps

    Act now and end this pair's tenure
    No they aren't. The people trashing the party are the anonymous briefer/s.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    Lack of economic experience is cited across Whitehall as to why No10 is not equipped for this crisis. “She has no good advisers,” said one official.

    Another: "There’s inexperience and naivety in [Truss’s] team not realising what a mess they’ve created.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/062bb647-14fa-4e8d-bb2f-397edada5dc2
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,341
    DavidL said:

    I think Kwarteng will go. Truss will sacrifice him for the greater good. She will then desperately try to bring together a government of unity within the party but I doubt Sunak or Hunt will play. Her position is ultimately untenable but it may take a time for her to come to terms with that.

    I think you are spot-on with this post.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    Another senior official on the Truss operation: “They simply don’t know how to govern.”

    Some Truss allies think Kwarteng is all but finished: "Her only options politically are binning much of the ‘mini’ Budget, sacking Kwarteng, blaming him.

    https://www.ft.com/content/062bb647-14fa-4e8d-bb2f-397edada5dc2
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,792
    AugustusCarp2 said:

    In industry, commerce, education, the police etc, dud incumbents usually retire on "health grounds." Maybe that's an elegant way for her to stand down?

    "Decided to pursue other opportunities"
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,117
    DavidL said:

    I think Kwarteng will go. Truss will sacrifice him for the greater good. She will then desperately try to bring together a government of unity within the party but I doubt Sunak or Hunt will play. Her position is ultimately untenable but it may take a time for her to come to terms with that.

    But Truss’ policies are the ones she campaigned on and implemented. She can chuck Kwarteng under the bus but the issue is her
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    Malmesbury said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    On topic. PB is great. But at times it does get swallowed whole by a media narrative, rather than trying to cut through hyperbole and take out the facts.

    Going back to the last contest and choosing the two MPs backed other than Truss is very flawed. To start with they only have those positions if another contest run today has the same runners and riders. What if Wallace entered this time, would they end up with those numbers?

    It also misses the point they started as hot favourites and under whelmed in the contest. In the first phase Mourdant didn’t shine as a communicator for the main reason she didn’t have a vision to communicate, she was an empty vessel. In the second phase Rishi made it easier for Truss by also not communicating very well, but also being all over the place on policy. If you remember he kept re launching his policy positions to look more like trusts to try and catch up.

    A Penny Rish dream ticket is an utter fallacy not grounded in realpolitik.

    I don't see any of them turning it around.

    Wallace doesn't want to run, I suspect, because it isn't a job he wants. Or probably, would be good at. Who would really want the current poison chalice?
    https://www.tatler.com/article/ben-wallace-wont-rule-out-standing-for-tory-leadership
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    DavidL said:

    I think Kwarteng will go. Truss will sacrifice him for the greater good. She will then desperately try to bring together a government of unity within the party but I doubt Sunak or Hunt will play. Her position is ultimately untenable but it may take a time for her to come to terms with that.

    She's got nothing left to draw on.

    She decided to shit her own bed on day one by junking anyone who wasn't a true believer.

    Now, it's payback time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,663
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    londonpubman said:

    It's a meltdown! 👿

    Truss and Kwarteng's resignations are required either voluntary or forced by their mps

    Act now and end this pair's tenure
    No they aren't. The people trashing the party are the anonymous briefer/s.
    And the markets, and 80% of the electorate.
    Other than that, they're doing great.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,754
    HYUFD said:

    I don't see how Sunak gets the leadership by coronation, which is the only way he can get it. The ERG MPs are bound to put up Braverman or Badenoch or even Boris again against him and then Sunak would likely lose the membership vote again.

    The ONLY viable candidate is one who both most Tory MPs AND most Tory members can support. For me that remains Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who is popular in Tory membership polls, backed Truss but is otherwise a competent and safe pair of hands. In a similar vein that was why IDS' Shadow Chancellor, Michael Howard, was the only viable candidate to replace IDS when he lost the VONC of his MPs in 2003, not Ken Clarke for instance.

    It should also be noted that the reason Tory members picked Truss and Labour members picked Corbyn is if you join a political party you don't just want to win every general election, you also want one who shifts the country in a more right or leftwing direction respectively. That does not mean members never pick electable leaders though, they do if out of power long enough and they want to win, as Tories did when they picked Cameron in 2005 or Labour members did when they picked Starmer in 2020

    Very good points here, and I think you've got a better handle on how Tory members think than most on here.

    If it is Ben Wallace somehow, does that mean he fights next election? I feel like a viable candidate maybe has to be someone who stands down before next general election?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,117
    Just rewatching the mini budget again. Look at Truss, Philips and Clarke behind Kwarteng. Absolutely chuffed with themselves. Thought they’d pulled off some sort of masterstroke
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,712
    Malmesbury said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    On topic. PB is great. But at times it does get swallowed whole by a media narrative, rather than trying to cut through hyperbole and take out the facts.

    Going back to the last contest and choosing the two MPs backed other than Truss is very flawed. To start with they only have those positions if another contest run today has the same runners and riders. What if Wallace entered this time, would they end up with those numbers?

    It also misses the point they started as hot favourites and under whelmed in the contest. In the first phase Mourdant didn’t shine as a communicator for the main reason she didn’t have a vision to communicate, she was an empty vessel. In the second phase Rishi made it easier for Truss by also not communicating very well, but also being all over the place on policy. If you remember he kept re launching his policy positions to look more like trusts to try and catch up.

    A Penny Rish dream ticket is an utter fallacy not grounded in realpolitik.

    I don't see any of them turning it around.

    Wallace doesn't want to run, I suspect, because it isn't a job he wants. Or probably, would be good at. Who would really want the current poison chalice?
    You'd take the job mostly to prevent another unsuitable person from doing so. Someone has to, or else it will be Braverman, Johnson or Patel.

    Also, if you're a current Tory MP, looking at the polls, you either become PM now, or you never do. Cameron wasn't an MP in 1997. Chances are the next Tory PM the other side of a general election isn't an MP now either.
  • PaulSimonPaulSimon Posts: 34
    The best chance the Tories have of winning a majority at the next GE is Mordaunt as PM and Sunak back as Chancellor, and even then it's a slim one (25%, tops?). Would Sunak even agree to that, i.e. is he interested in playing second fiddle to someone notionally much more junior, and presumably he'd insist on a full return to his previous policy positions (NI hike to be replaced by the silly hypothecated NHS tax)?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,998
    Scott_xP said:

    One v unhappy backbencher tonight predicts “I suspect she’ll be gone within weeks”, adding: “The libertarian freakshows from Tufton St need to accept that their entryism has failed. It’s going to be nipped in the bud. From now on their pamphlets will go back to gathering dust.”
    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1580690575543500802

    tbh I never really understood the Tufton Street thing, except as shorthand for opaquely-funded so-called think tanks.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,194
    edited October 2022
    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    edited October 2022
    Nigelb said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    On topic. PB is great. But at times it does get swallowed whole by a media narrative, rather than trying to cut through hyperbole and take out the facts.

    Going back to the last contest and choosing the two MPs backed other than Truss is very flawed. To start with they only have those positions if another contest run today has the same runners and riders. What if Wallace entered this time, would they end up with those numbers?

    It also misses the point they started as hot favourites and under whelmed in the contest. In the first phase Mourdant didn’t shine as a communicator for the main reason she didn’t have a vision to communicate, she was an empty vessel. In the second phase Rishi made it easier for Truss by also not communicating very well, but also being all over the place on policy. If you remember he kept re launching his policy positions to look more like trusts to try and catch up.

    A Penny Rish dream ticket is an utter fallacy not grounded in realpolitik.

    Realpolitik is that the current incumbents are a disaster, and Sunak has been Chancellor without previously precipitating a meltdown on the markets.
    To some extent the markets were waiting through a summer of Zombie government, waiting to hear from the new one, in much the same way markets are recovering today cock sure they have their u turn and man thrown into volcano.

    To some extent the problems are a maxed out credit card with four hundred billion of Rishi’s covid policy on it and another two hundred billion to try and get added for the energy bill policy - to say Rishi would have no problem with the markets too isn’t keeping it real Nigel.

    And to some extent I agree with you, flawed as they are, Penny and Rishi still be better for all of us than Truss and Kwarteng.
    But then that just misses the whole point doesn’t it. A Gove Rishi dream ticket would be even better for the Conservatives - just shows this is fantasy game being played here not serious politics.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    One Treasury veteran on Kwarteng: “The answer must be to blame him, fire him and start again and hope that in two years' time [at the next election] this is a distant memory.”

    Cabinet ministers think Sajid Javid is the only credible alternative.

    https://www.ft.com/content/062bb647-14fa-4e8d-bb2f-397edada5dc2


    The Chancellor is flying back from Washington so the PM can discuss the bus he is about to be thrown under...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    LostPassword said:

    Malmesbury said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    On topic. PB is great. But at times it does get swallowed whole by a media narrative, rather than trying to cut through hyperbole and take out the facts.

    Going back to the last contest and choosing the two MPs backed other than Truss is very flawed. To start with they only have those positions if another contest run today has the same runners and riders. What if Wallace entered this time, would they end up with those numbers?

    It also misses the point they started as hot favourites and under whelmed in the contest. In the first phase Mourdant didn’t shine as a communicator for the main reason she didn’t have a vision to communicate, she was an empty vessel. In the second phase Rishi made it easier for Truss by also not communicating very well, but also being all over the place on policy. If you remember he kept re launching his policy positions to look more like trusts to try and catch up.

    A Penny Rish dream ticket is an utter fallacy not grounded in realpolitik.

    I don't see any of them turning it around.

    Wallace doesn't want to run, I suspect, because it isn't a job he wants. Or probably, would be good at. Who would really want the current poison chalice?
    You'd take the job mostly to prevent another unsuitable person from doing so. Someone has to, or else it will be Braverman, Johnson or Patel.

    Also, if you're a current Tory MP, looking at the polls, you either become PM now, or you never do. Cameron wasn't an MP in 1997. Chances are the next Tory PM the other side of a general election isn't an MP now either.
    Yes and Starmer wasn't an MP in 2010 and Blair wasn't an MP in 1979.

    Unless a likely Starmer government faces economic disaster and mismanagement then the Tories will likely be out of power for at least a decade if not more after the next general election
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 415
    DougSeal said:

    AugustusCarp2 said:

    In industry, commerce, education, the police etc, dud incumbents usually retire on "health grounds." Maybe that's an elegant way for her to stand down?

    "Decided to pursue other opportunities"
    Unfortunately, if you're the PM, that's not really an option - although I would be delighted to see an announcement from 10 Downing Street that she had decided to fulfil a lifetime's ambition and was going to open an aromatherapy and flower shop in Market Deeping.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,665
    edmundintokyo said:



    They need someone who was defeated more heavily, preferably someone who was too much of a hopeless case to even run.

    #ready4rehman #ichoochoochoosechchisti


  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    Malmesbury said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    On topic. PB is great. But at times it does get swallowed whole by a media narrative, rather than trying to cut through hyperbole and take out the facts.

    Going back to the last contest and choosing the two MPs backed other than Truss is very flawed. To start with they only have those positions if another contest run today has the same runners and riders. What if Wallace entered this time, would they end up with those numbers?

    It also misses the point they started as hot favourites and under whelmed in the contest. In the first phase Mourdant didn’t shine as a communicator for the main reason she didn’t have a vision to communicate, she was an empty vessel. In the second phase Rishi made it easier for Truss by also not communicating very well, but also being all over the place on policy. If you remember he kept re launching his policy positions to look more like trusts to try and catch up.

    A Penny Rish dream ticket is an utter fallacy not grounded in realpolitik.

    I don't see any of them turning it around.

    Wallace doesn't want to run, I suspect, because it isn't a job he wants. Or probably, would be good at. Who would really want the current poison chalice?
    I suspect they will want it after the election. The problem to tackle is how best to limit the defeat, and who wants to own it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,712
    DavidL said:

    I think Kwarteng will go. Truss will sacrifice him for the greater good. She will then desperately try to bring together a government of unity within the party but I doubt Sunak or Hunt will play. Her position is ultimately untenable but it may take a time for her to come to terms with that.

    One big problems for Truss with sacking Kwarteng is who to appoint in his place. If it was Zahawi again I don't think I could stop laughing.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,953
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One v unhappy backbencher tonight predicts “I suspect she’ll be gone within weeks”, adding: “The libertarian freakshows from Tufton St need to accept that their entryism has failed. It’s going to be nipped in the bud. From now on their pamphlets will go back to gathering dust.”
    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1580690575543500802

    tbh I never really understood the Tufton Street thing, except as shorthand for opaquely-funded so-called think tanks.
    Then you have, err, understood it!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    edited October 2022
    rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't see how Sunak gets the leadership by coronation, which is the only way he can get it. The ERG MPs are bound to put up Braverman or Badenoch or even Boris again against him and then Sunak would likely lose the membership vote again.

    The ONLY viable candidate is one who both most Tory MPs AND most Tory members can support. For me that remains Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who is popular in Tory membership polls, backed Truss but is otherwise a competent and safe pair of hands. In a similar vein that was why IDS' Shadow Chancellor, Michael Howard, was the only viable candidate to replace IDS when he lost the VONC of his MPs in 2003, not Ken Clarke for instance.

    It should also be noted that the reason Tory members picked Truss and Labour members picked Corbyn is if you join a political party you don't just want to win every general election, you also want one who shifts the country in a more right or leftwing direction respectively. That does not mean members never pick electable leaders though, they do if out of power long enough and they want to win, as Tories did when they picked Cameron in 2005 or Labour members did when they picked Starmer in 2020

    Very good points here, and I think you've got a better handle on how Tory members think than most on here.

    If it is Ben Wallace somehow, does that mean he fights next election? I feel like a viable candidate maybe has to be someone who stands down before next general election?
    Yes, if it is Wallace he definitely fights the next general election, they can't change leader again.

    He could be a Douglas Home figure, who let us not forget only lost to Wilson in 1964 very narrowly
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    AugustusCarp2 said:

    DougSeal said:

    AugustusCarp2 said:

    In industry, commerce, education, the police etc, dud incumbents usually retire on "health grounds." Maybe that's an elegant way for her to stand down?

    "Decided to pursue other opportunities"
    Unfortunately, if you're the PM, that's not really an option - although I would be delighted to see an announcement from 10 Downing Street that she had decided to fulfil a lifetime's ambition and was going to open an aromatherapy and flower shop in Market Deeping.
    I wouldn't trust her or KK with a whelk stall right now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,000
    Razedabode said:

    DavidL said:

    I think Kwarteng will go. Truss will sacrifice him for the greater good. She will then desperately try to bring together a government of unity within the party but I doubt Sunak or Hunt will play. Her position is ultimately untenable but it may take a time for her to come to terms with that.

    But Truss’ policies are the ones she campaigned on and implemented. She can chuck Kwarteng under the bus but the issue is her
    Sure, but she will be reluctant to see it that way.

    The brutal reality is that our situation had deteriorated from bad to very bad during the long interregnum of the leadership campaign and the paralysis of the Johnson government which effectively ended when Sunak resigned but had been on life support for months before that.

    It really should have been obvious to a child that these were times to tread carefully, to rebuild confidence in the government and the markets, not to rock the boat and to try to bring the party and the country together. Truss and Kwarteng decided to do the opposite and make a big splash emphasising their rejection of the defeatist consensus and a new direction. They were simply not in a place to do that, not even close. Very few of the problems we are facing are actually down to Truss but such a massive misjudgment indicated to everyone that she simply did not appreciate how bad things were and how vulnerable we are. There is therefore zero trust or confidence that she can address those problems.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    edited October 2022
    Will he join the dots...






  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    Casino_Royale said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    If you're starting your posts with, "As usual, John Red(w)ood hits the nail on the head" then you've got bigger problems than I thought.
    It is a good point though. The role of science is to enable a vision, not set it.

    Not that economics is anything like a science, it’s more like religion, different sects all arguing with each other. And when they lose faith they resort to socialism and sodomy.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,418
    DavidL said:

    I think Kwarteng will go. Truss will sacrifice him for the greater good. She will then desperately try to bring together a government of unity within the party but I doubt Sunak or Hunt will play. Her position is ultimately untenable but it may take a time for her to come to terms with that.

    Hunt might actually, given how finished his political career looks otherwise.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    Slackbladder said:

    AugustusCarp2 said:

    DougSeal said:

    AugustusCarp2 said:

    In industry, commerce, education, the police etc, dud incumbents usually retire on "health grounds." Maybe that's an elegant way for her to stand down?

    "Decided to pursue other opportunities"
    Unfortunately, if you're the PM, that's not really an option - although I would be delighted to see an announcement from 10 Downing Street that she had decided to fulfil a lifetime's ambition and was going to open an aromatherapy and flower shop in Market Deeping.
    I wouldn't trust her or KK with a whelk stall right now.
    They would mussel in with a different approach.
  • RunDeepRunDeep Posts: 77
    PaulSimon said:

    The best chance the Tories have of winning a majority at the next GE is Mordaunt as PM and Sunak back as Chancellor, and even then it's a slim one (25%, tops?). Would Sunak even agree to that, i.e. is he interested in playing second fiddle to someone notionally much more junior, and presumably he'd insist on a full return to his previous policy positions (NI hike to be replaced by the silly hypothecated NHS tax)?

    Mordaunt, unlike Sunak, sucked up to Truss to get a job. Unlike him, she was saying last week that the policies are fine just the communication was bad. Her Ministerial experience is limited and she is inclined to dissemble.

    Whoever is needed now cannot be another inexperienced Minister learning on the job. And why should Sunak who won the majority of MP votes give way to her anyway? Financial and economic expertise is needed now. Sunak is hardly ideal but he is a lot better than the alternatives.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,655
    FPT
    Scott_xP said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    That is a very real risk. Truss cannot govern. Any replacement must be a unity candidate. It looks increasingly clear that MPs won't back one of the failed leadership candidates just rejected, and Sunak - the one MPs did back - was rejected by members.

    So we're back to resurrecting Johnson (disgraced out of office), May (hounded out of office but with a new Cassandra confidence), or find someone completely leftfield like Wallace.

    Or - more likely - apocalypse along until it finally collapses in utter disarray.

    Fraser Nelson, in his "into the valley of Death" Telegraph article says exactly this.

    The very worst case scenario is Truss abandons her entire agenda to salvage the economy, but then limps on in office with no purpose, or support
    Abandoning your entire agenda in a time of national crisis could work. "We tried to do this, we're facing a huge challenge, we have to focus entirely on that".

    Instead what do we have? They're still insisting there is no energy supply crisis. Or any need to even prepare people for conserving energy. That the doubling of bills vs last winter is problem solved. That any cash increase in wages / benefits is sufficient because its "more" regardless of the swamping of "more" by the real cost of living. Etc etc etc etc.

    And worse still we have the way ministers deal with problems. With people. With institutions. Arrogance. Sneering. Belittling. These are not the people we need to work our way out of a wet paper bag, never mind the winter we face.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't see how Sunak gets the leadership by coronation, which is the only way he can get it. The ERG MPs are bound to put up Braverman or Badenoch or even Boris again against him and then Sunak would likely lose the membership vote again.

    The ONLY viable candidate is one who both most Tory MPs AND most Tory members can support. For me that remains Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who is popular in Tory membership polls, backed Truss but is otherwise a competent and safe pair of hands. In a similar vein that was why IDS' Shadow Chancellor, Michael Howard, was the only viable candidate to replace IDS when he lost the VONC of his MPs in 2003, not Ken Clarke for instance.

    It should also be noted that the reason Tory members picked Truss and Labour members picked Corbyn is if you join a political party you don't just want to win every general election, you also want one who shifts the country in a more right or leftwing direction respectively. That does not mean members never pick electable leaders though, they do if out of power long enough and they want to win, as Tories did when they picked Cameron in 2005 or Labour members did when they picked Starmer in 2020

    Very good points here, and I think you've got a better handle on how Tory members think than most on here.

    If it is Ben Wallace somehow, does that mean he fights next election? I feel like a viable candidate maybe has to be someone who stands down before next general election?
    Yes, if it is Wallace he definitely fights the next general election, they can't change leader again.

    He could be a Douglas Home figure, who let us not forget only lost to Wilson in 1964 very narrowly
    To prove you are not just spinning for Wallace, what would you put in his negative column for us?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    The PM has cancelled a series of visits in her constituencyto stay in London and concentrate on the crisis surrounding her mini budget, reports @andrewpolitics @BBCNews https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63221738
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,560
    LostPassword said:

    DavidL said:

    I think Kwarteng will go. Truss will sacrifice him for the greater good. She will then desperately try to bring together a government of unity within the party but I doubt Sunak or Hunt will play. Her position is ultimately untenable but it may take a time for her to come to terms with that.

    One big problems for Truss with sacking Kwarteng is who to appoint in his place. If it was Zahawi again I don't think I could stop laughing.
    I wonder whether you'd need a Braverman to take on such a job? :open_mouth:
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,998
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Redwood is half-right. The OBR was one of George Osborne's wheezes to catch out his opposite number and current telly pal Ed Balls. It is not a time-honoured part of the fabric of government. However, there is no evidence from the past decade to support Redwood's claim (and/or hope) that our low corporation tax rate is creating jobs.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,418
    Scott_xP said:

    One Treasury veteran on Kwarteng: “The answer must be to blame him, fire him and start again and hope that in two years' time [at the next election] this is a distant memory.”

    Cabinet ministers think Sajid Javid is the only credible alternative.

    https://www.ft.com/content/062bb647-14fa-4e8d-bb2f-397edada5dc2


    The Chancellor is flying back from Washington so the PM can discuss the bus he is about to be thrown under...

    It'll be Zahawi who gets the gig if Truss is forced to dump Kwarteng.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    RandallFlagg said:

    It'll be Zahawi who gets the gig if Truss is forced to dump Kwarteng.

    Not good enough to save her
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,663
    Casino_Royale said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    If you're starting your posts with, "As usual, John Red(w)ood hits the nail on the head" then you've got bigger problems than I thought.
    It's necessary to acknowledge that the Redwood/Truss/Luckyguy/Barty strain of right of centre politics exists.
    But also that it is a minority even in the Conservative party, and it's only by accident of fate - and certainly not by choice of the wider electorate - that it's managed to end up in government.

    In current conditions, that's not sustainable for very long at all.
  • TinkyWinkyTinkyWinky Posts: 134
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    The self-proclaimed free-thinker who downloads 1:1 his opinions from John Redwood.

  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,418
    RunDeep said:

    PaulSimon said:

    The best chance the Tories have of winning a majority at the next GE is Mordaunt as PM and Sunak back as Chancellor, and even then it's a slim one (25%, tops?). Would Sunak even agree to that, i.e. is he interested in playing second fiddle to someone notionally much more junior, and presumably he'd insist on a full return to his previous policy positions (NI hike to be replaced by the silly hypothecated NHS tax)?

    Mordaunt, unlike Sunak, sucked up to Truss to get a job. Unlike him, she was saying last week that the policies are fine just the communication was bad. Her Ministerial experience is limited and she is inclined to dissemble.

    Whoever is needed now cannot be another inexperienced Minister learning on the job. And why should Sunak who won the majority of MP votes give way to her anyway? Financial and economic expertise is needed now. Sunak is hardly ideal but he is a lot better than the alternatives.
    Because Bozo the Malevolent Clown and his followers would veto a Sunak coronation.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    Buyer’s remorse in the Tory Party membership… https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1580855287291949057/photo/1


  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,953
    RandallFlagg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One Treasury veteran on Kwarteng: “The answer must be to blame him, fire him and start again and hope that in two years' time [at the next election] this is a distant memory.”

    Cabinet ministers think Sajid Javid is the only credible alternative.

    https://www.ft.com/content/062bb647-14fa-4e8d-bb2f-397edada5dc2


    The Chancellor is flying back from Washington so the PM can discuss the bus he is about to be thrown under...

    It'll be Zahawi who gets the gig if Truss is forced to dump Kwarteng.
    Sounds promising. Promote him on Saturday and by Monday he will be calling on her to go!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,953
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Absolutely. What the markets really need right now is for the OBR to be dismissed - schooled even - by an economic giant like John Redwood.
    Redwood and Frost - the intellectual dream team behind the Trussites.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,663
    Dura_Ace said:

    Surprised that BW is down on 5%. Plenty of tories on here dream of rubbing their nutsacks on his shiny pate.

    I have more chance of being PM than Captain Mordaunt, RNR and I'd be fucking terrible at it.

    Retweet if I’d be a better PM than Truss.
    https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1580665790956638208
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    HYUFD said:

    I don't see how Sunak gets the leadership by coronation, which is the only way he can get it. The ERG MPs are bound to put up Braverman or Badenoch or even Boris again against him and then Sunak would likely lose the membership vote again.

    The ONLY viable candidate is one who both most Tory MPs AND most Tory members can support. For me that remains Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who is popular in Tory membership polls, backed Truss but is otherwise a competent and safe pair of hands. In a similar vein that was why IDS' Shadow Chancellor, Michael Howard, was the only viable candidate to replace IDS when he lost the VONC of his MPs in 2003, not Ken Clarke for instance.

    It should also be noted that the reason most Tory members picked Truss and most Labour members picked Corbyn is if you join a political party you don't just want to win every general election, most members also want a leader who shifts the country in a more right or leftwing direction respectively. That does not mean members never pick electable leaders though, they do if out of power long enough and they want to win, as Tory members did when they picked Cameron in 2005 or Labour members did when they picked Starmer in 2020

    We have argued vehemently and frequently in the past, Hyufd, but on this issue you have been a not only an informed source but a beacon of common sense and calm reason too. My only caveat is that I question whether the Party membership is a sensible and clear-sighted as you.

    I really don't know the answer to that one.
  • TinkyWinkyTinkyWinky Posts: 134
    Nigelb said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    If you're starting your posts with, "As usual, John Red(w)ood hits the nail on the head" then you've got bigger problems than I thought.
    It's necessary to acknowledge that the Redwood/Truss/Luckyguy/Barty strain of right of centre politics exists.
    But also that it is a minority even in the Conservative party, and it's only by accident of fate - and certainly not by choice of the wider electorate - that it's managed to end up in government.

    In current conditions, that's not sustainable for very long at all.
    A minority in the Parliamentary Conservative party but clearly hugely over-represented in the membership.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,655
    Scott_xP said:

    One Treasury veteran on Kwarteng: “The answer must be to blame him, fire him and start again and hope that in two years' time [at the next election] this is a distant memory.”

    Cabinet ministers think Sajid Javid is the only credible alternative.

    https://www.ft.com/content/062bb647-14fa-4e8d-bb2f-397edada5dc2


    The Chancellor is flying back from Washington so the PM can discuss the bus he is about to be thrown under...

    Since the Brexit referendum in the summer of 2016 we have had an ever more rapid succession of Chancellors. Osborne (fired), Hammond (fired), Javid (quit), Sunak (quit), Zahawi (fired) and now Kwarteng (doomed).

    Javid again? Why not just stick all the names on the wheel of fortune and have Nicky Campbell invite Tory MPs to give it a spin. Why not a Lord Osborne? He isn't doing much these days and he knows how to manage an economy where there is a lack of cash.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    55 Tufton Street is the new 788 Finchley Road
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,663
    Scott_xP said:

    Buyer’s remorse in the Tory Party membership… https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1580855287291949057/photo/1


    Is that Tory members, or Tory voters from 2019 ?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,742
    Penny more likely to be PM in a coronation than Rishi IMHO. They can at least point to the fact that she didn’t go to the members last time.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    Reliably informed by @KatyAustinNews that Chancellor plane circling, in a holding pattern. One for the headline writers….?
    https://twitter.com/DharshiniDavid/status/1580856555456860160
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    NEW NUMBERS: 🚨

    Liz Truss has the lowest level of satisfaction with the public *ever recorded* for a British Prime Minister with @IpsosUK

    16% satisfied
    67% dissatisfied

    (John Major briefly dipped to 17% in August 1994)
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,742
    RandallFlagg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One Treasury veteran on Kwarteng: “The answer must be to blame him, fire him and start again and hope that in two years' time [at the next election] this is a distant memory.”

    Cabinet ministers think Sajid Javid is the only credible alternative.

    https://www.ft.com/content/062bb647-14fa-4e8d-bb2f-397edada5dc2


    The Chancellor is flying back from Washington so the PM can discuss the bus he is about to be thrown under...

    It'll be Zahawi who gets the gig if Truss is forced to dump Kwarteng.
    Ugh, frying pan/fire springs to mind. He was utterly unsuited to the role of COE when Boris appointed him and remains so.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    DavidL said:

    I think Kwarteng will go. Truss will sacrifice him for the greater good. She will then desperately try to bring together a government of unity within the party but I doubt Sunak or Hunt will play. Her position is ultimately untenable but it may take a time for her to come to terms with that.

    Yes, that's the most probable outcome but the situation is highly unstable so there are plenty of improbable things that might happen instead.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    A former minister gets in touch: "Boris Johnson said 'when the herd moves, it moves'. Paul's solution seems to be to slaughter the herd."

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1580857988599861250
    https://twitter.com/paulbristow79/status/1580842967258267648
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    The absolute worst case scenario would be another 3 month leadership election. The current cabinet cannot allow that to happen.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,000
    Scott_xP said:

    Reliably informed by @KatyAustinNews that Chancellor plane circling, in a holding pattern. One for the headline writers….?
    https://twitter.com/DharshiniDavid/status/1580856555456860160

    Deciding whether to land or not must be causing anguish.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,194
    Casino_Royale said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    If you're starting your posts with, "As usual, John Red(w)ood hits the nail on the head" then you've got bigger problems than I thought.
    If you're not bothering your brain cell to engage with the points made, and instead dismissing it because it comes from a remoaner boogy man, then you're exactly the sort of twat your recent posts would indicate.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,742
    Scott_xP said:

    Buyer’s remorse in the Tory Party membership… https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1580855287291949057/photo/1


    I’m just embarrassed for her now. I think she must and will go, but god how mortifying. Hope she has a good support network because this is the sort of stuff that would utterly break a person.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    AugustusCarp2 said:

    In industry, commerce, education, the police etc, dud incumbents usually retire on "health grounds." Maybe that's an elegant way for her to stand down?

    And talking of health, how are you these days, young Carp? In fine fettle, one trusts?

    Good to see you posting again.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    rcs1000 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,341
    HYUFD said:

    I don't see how Sunak gets the leadership by coronation, which is the only way he can get it. The ERG MPs are bound to put up Braverman or Badenoch or even Boris again against him and then Sunak would likely lose the membership vote again.

    The ONLY viable candidate is one who both most Tory MPs AND most Tory members can support. For me that remains Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who is popular in Tory membership polls, backed Truss but is otherwise a competent and safe pair of hands. In a similar vein that was why IDS' Shadow Chancellor, Michael Howard, was the only viable candidate to replace IDS when he lost the VONC of his MPs in 2003, not Ken Clarke for instance.

    It should also be noted that the reason most Tory members picked Truss and most Labour members picked Corbyn is if you join a political party you don't just want to win every general election, most members also want a leader who shifts the country in a more right or leftwing direction respectively. That does not mean members never pick electable leaders though, they do if out of power long enough and they want to win, as Tory members did when they picked Cameron in 2005 or Labour members did when they picked Starmer in 2020

    Good post but in my understanding the ERG MPs were/are not particularly opposed to Sunak - they just preferred Truss (mainly due to the NI issue). Even though she voted Remain and Sunak voted Leave.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    EXCLUSIVE:

    Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng to announce mini-budget u-turn *today*

    They are meeting shortly after chancellor flies back from Washington

    Plans to freeze corporation tax will be reversed - it will rise next year

    PM statement expected later

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kwasi-kwarteng-flies-back-to-london-from-us-a-day-early-b2zcgtcd2
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't see how Sunak gets the leadership by coronation, which is the only way he can get it. The ERG MPs are bound to put up Braverman or Badenoch or even Boris again against him and then Sunak would likely lose the membership vote again.

    The ONLY viable candidate is one who both most Tory MPs AND most Tory members can support. For me that remains Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who is popular in Tory membership polls, backed Truss but is otherwise a competent and safe pair of hands. In a similar vein that was why IDS' Shadow Chancellor, Michael Howard, was the only viable candidate to replace IDS when he lost the VONC of his MPs in 2003, not Ken Clarke for instance.

    It should also be noted that the reason most Tory members picked Truss and most Labour members picked Corbyn is if you join a political party you don't just want to win every general election, most members also want a leader who shifts the country in a more right or leftwing direction respectively. That does not mean members never pick electable leaders though, they do if out of power long enough and they want to win, as Tory members did when they picked Cameron in 2005 or Labour members did when they picked Starmer in 2020

    Good post but in my understanding the ERG MPs were/are not particularly opposed to Sunak - they just preferred Truss (mainly due to the NI issue). Even though she voted Remain and Sunak voted Leave.
    They preferred Truss because of her fantasy economics which they share.

    Unless there is a rethink by these MPs, then the Tory party is doomed no matter what.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    rcs1000 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    It depends what is done with the money isn’t it? Growth only comes from investments in all its ways, matching capital to ideas and ambition that is out there.

    Certainly from vox popping on news business segments, I get impression business would like to expand than contract, but have capital problem.

    The opposition party’s already liaises faire in face of Truss labelling them anti growth, need to make clear they are pro growth, growth is only way out of the rut you pointed up in your post Robert, and the language has to be capital empowering ideas and ambition.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,663
    Interesting thread on the costs of Starlink in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/dim0kq/status/1580827171903635456
    Very interesting statement from @elonmusk re Ukrainian StarLink and how damaging it is for @SpaceX economics.

    Being Ukrainian actually in the topic of StarLinks, I want to tell you some based facts re starlinks in Ukraine...

    ... I admire the actions of SpaceX of enabling StarLink service in Ukraine. It is a true game changer for Ukrainian army in the open fields of no cellular, and long distances not suitable for radios, given the situation is changing quick on the battlefield.

    It’s a game-changer....

    ...Despite that, I have not seen ANY StarLink which was bought by the governments, or by SpaceX. All the Starlinks I have seen / used - were bought either by volunteers like myself, or soldiers put their personal money in.

    The subscription price is also paid out of the pocket...

    While all of the above is probably true, it's likely that the current retail prices in Europe do not begin to reflect the actual cost of providing the service (and would do so only if the number of subscribers were an order of magnitude larger).

    See for example:

    Musk says may need $30 bln to keep Starlink in orbit
    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/musk-sees-starlink-winning-500000-customers-next-12-months-2021-06-29/

    The US government/DOD needs to step in and sort out this spat, as the service is absolutely vital to the Ukraine war effort.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,655
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCLUSIVE:

    Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng to announce mini-budget u-turn *today*

    They are meeting shortly after chancellor flies back from Washington

    Plans to freeze corporation tax will be reversed - it will rise next year

    PM statement expected later

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kwasi-kwarteng-flies-back-to-london-from-us-a-day-early-b2zcgtcd2

    They had no choice.
    They will screw up the messaging. "We know we were right, the markets / IMF / World Bank are idiots" etc. Markets won't be happy.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,742
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCLUSIVE:

    Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng to announce mini-budget u-turn *today*

    They are meeting shortly after chancellor flies back from Washington

    Plans to freeze corporation tax will be reversed - it will rise next year

    PM statement expected later

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kwasi-kwarteng-flies-back-to-london-from-us-a-day-early-b2zcgtcd2

    Presumably they are graduates from the Boris Johnson school of brazenly clinging on, but how can either of them have any credibility now? They are ratnered.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    numbertwelve said:

    I’m just embarrassed for her now. I think she must and will go, but god how mortifying. Hope she has a good support network because this is the sort of stuff that would utterly break a person.

    I said it yesterday, she should resign and hug her kids
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 415
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    AugustusCarp2 said:

    In industry, commerce, education, the police etc, dud incumbents usually retire on "health grounds." Maybe that's an elegant way for her to stand down?

    And talking of health, how are you these days, young Carp? In fine fettle, one trusts?

    Good to see you posting again.
    Hi. Peter! Good to hear from you. Yes, I only pop in occasionally nowadays - I don't really understand most of the arguments anymore, and I don't know the names of the posters, and it sometimes seems a bit more tetchy than it was in the "golden age". Still, it's worth hacking through the jungle every now and again for some first class analysis (and gossip!)
  • TinkyWinkyTinkyWinky Posts: 134
    edited October 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCLUSIVE:

    Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng to announce mini-budget u-turn *today*

    They are meeting shortly after chancellor flies back from Washington

    Plans to freeze corporation tax will be reversed - it will rise next year

    PM statement expected later

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kwasi-kwarteng-flies-back-to-london-from-us-a-day-early-b2zcgtcd2

    Oh so she's going for the shameless hanging on for as long as possible route now. So not only clueless but zero integrity. Just the absolute worst of the worse.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    RochdalePioneers said:


    Scott_xP said:

    EXCLUSIVE:

    Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng to announce mini-budget u-turn *today*

    They are meeting shortly after chancellor flies back from Washington

    Plans to freeze corporation tax will be reversed - it will rise next year

    PM statement expected later

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kwasi-kwarteng-flies-back-to-london-from-us-a-day-early-b2zcgtcd2

    They had no choice.
    They will screw up the messaging. "We know we were right, the markets / IMF / World Bank are idiots" etc. Markets won't be happy.
    NOTHING HAS CHANGED !!!
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