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A 2023 Truss exit now a 58% chance in the betting – politicalbetting.com
A 2023 Truss exit now a 58% chance in the betting – politicalbetting.com
If the betting markets have got this right then Liz Truss is not likely to be fighting the next general election as Conservative leader and PM.
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but who knows: unstoppable force of her uselessness meets immovable object of lack of alternatives. Not betting.
The 11 still standing have lost one-sixth of their home league fixtures.
And it's early October.
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1580243991911870464
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/as-europe-falls-into-recession-russia-climbs-out
Sanctions took about 3-4% off the economy, not the expected 8-10%
Meanwhile Europe teeters near to outright collapse
Afterall, that's where the phrase 'tractor stats' does come from.
Because it is Europe which is bleeding out, not Russia. Despite everything
You're trying too hard.
Squad sizes.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1250576/farm-machinery-production-us-ussr-cold-war/
"In 1970, the Soviet Union produced more than three times the number of tractors and combines that were sold in the U.S."
and when they switched from tractors to T-34s in 1940 they made a fuck of a lot of non-imaginary T-34s.
She was safely discharged from hospital this afternoon. Both mum and baby tired but doing well and pleased to be back home.
The Tory party membership is generally insane and shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near any say on the party leadership…
Misses everything really.
And the Ukranians have destroyed or captured 2,000 of them, in those nine months.
The main take out is a huge anti Tory vote out there - but it still needs to coalesce around a candidate, and could still unwind before the election.
It was inevitable that Europe was going to suffer when this war started. But just as things start to get bad for Europeans, Russia keeps doing things that remind them to continue supporting the war, like bombing childrens playgrounds. And then they make territorial claims based on sham referendums that irritate its 'allies' who cannot support such acts because of the precedents it would set for their own territorial problems and disputes. So it keeps going with these bizarre own goals by the master strategist Putin.
I don't really see how Russia wins the war because it can't easily fix the problems with its military, even if it pumps unlimited amounts of money in to it, it cannot really change anything. Russia doesn't have the motivation to win and Ukraine does.
"Even in her worst nightmares, Liz Truss could never have dreamed it would be this bad
The Government is frozen rigid in terror, unable to move as it stares vacantly at incoming traffic
Everywhere you look, it’s unravelling. Liz Truss is presiding over a full-spectrum, system-wide, multifaceted political breakdown. It’s a complete disintegration of function and will – and it is taking place faster than anyone thought possible. In every aspect and at every level, the Government is falling apart.
After just a few weeks, her incompetence has reduced the Bank of England to functional incoherence. It is losing any sense of institutional identity in the face of the chaos she has created.
...
Even in her worst nightmares, Truss could never have dreamed it would be this bad. We’ve never seen political failure on this scale or at this velocity. It would be fascinating, if only it were happening somewhere else."
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/liz-truss-worst-nightmares-never-dreamed-this-bad-1907392
More seriously, how exactly will they get rid of her? The current rules prohibit for a year. There no obvious unity, saviour over the water candidate. But there are the likes of Braverman, Boris, waiting for an opportunity knowing membership will favour them. Sunak preferred by voters of other parties, would be contentious and split the Tory party. And whilst Truss and Kwarteng are diabolical communicators, if it’s the economic approach and ideological message that has sunk Tory’s in the polls, what platform and themes do they want to fight election on?
Why isn’t 2025 on the chart 🙂
@jessicaelgot
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Robert Halfon, who chairs the education select committee, told Truss she had "trashed the last 10 years" of the Conservative economic record, according to one colleague.
Robert Halfon, who chairs the education select committee, told Truss she had "trashed the last 10 years" of the Conservative economic record, according to one colleague.
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1580249454179127298
I am Robert Halfon.
5/1 for 2024 looked value when I thought it was 2024 or later. It isn't; 2025 or later is 13/2. wrong way round because if she makes 2024 she probably also makes 2025.
but who knows: unstoppable force of her uselessness meets immovable object of lack of alternatives. Not betting.
https://smarkets.com/event/42891914/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/2025/01/01/00-00/liz-truss-exit-date
Brooklyn Center man who claimed vandals spray painted "Biden 2020" on his garage and torched his camper due to a Trump 2020 flag has pleaded guilty to fraud for faking the incident.
Thirty-year-old Denis Molla was charged in the case after the fire in September 2020, in which prosecutors say he falsely reported to police that three men lit his camper on fire and vandalized his garage with graffiti supporting President Biden, Black Lives Matter, and Antifa. Molla also claimed the vandals targeted his camper because of a "Trump 2020" flag he had on it.
Authorities say Molla submitted multiple insurance claims for the damage to his camper, garage, and vehicles. Prosecutors say he collected $61,000 in insurance claims and more than $17,000 from a GoFundMe.
Molla pleaded guilty to one count of wire fraud in the hoax. He will be sentenced at a later date for the crime.
https://www.fox9.com/news/man-who-claimed-vandals-targeted-him-for-trump-flag-pleads-guilty-to-fraud
Why do you think you are in a tiny minority? Could it perhaps be that the rest of the world is right and you are wrong?
Firstly the Brexit precedent. The argument goes that it is now constitutional to have a referendum with a 50+1 majority needed for change. There are several flaws with this. The first of which being the obvious point that the UK is an internationally recognised sovereign state and has been for centuries. Scotland is not. So why would the Brexit vote matter? Secondly the Brexit vote was not legally binding anyway. The pledges made by David Cameron and others to respect the result were a matter of taking him at his word. In reality this meant that MPs felt they had little choice but to vote for withdrawal. But that was based on the political consequences of them not doing so. At no point was it seriously suggested that those MPs obstructing Brexit should be prosecuted and sent to prison.
I don't know what the Supreme Court will do. To me they seem to move in mysterious ways, though maybe that's just because I am not a legal expert. Modern physics can feel rather odd too. I would find it extraordinary if the Supreme Court believed a Scottish referendum could be legally binding but what exactly would be the opposition to an advisory vote? After all what is it but a glorified and very expensive opinion poll? Should the Scottish government not be allowed to hold such a vote? Sturgeon could claim that she would respect the result whichever way it went but since the UK government wouldn't be recognising the legalilty of the vote it wouldn't be worth a can of beans.
Some people might think my dismissal of Scottish sovereignty is rather cold and unfair. With respect I would question how much they have actually thought through the repercussions of a new vote. There was a referendum 8 years ago on independence that provided a solid if not overwhelming majority for the status quo, that being a sovereign UK. So a determination that it is up to Scots to choose whether they remain in the UK means what? Presumably a 50+1 referendum vote. Such a vote would likely produce several areas or regions with a majority for remaining in the UK. Should these regions be allowed to stay in the UK? Would they have any right of secession from an independent Scotland? My guess is that would not go down well with the SNP. So the position would appear to be that a simple majority in a referendum not authorised by Westminster would be satisfactory and there are no rules as to how often or how many referendum you can hold. There is no indication that any regions of Scotland would have the right to secede at any point either.
When one considers the current economic headwinds, Scotland's less than healthy fiscal position and the clear division on the issue, a new referendum right now strikes me as complete madness. The Nats claim to have the youth vote on their side. Their support has steadily risen over 30 years. So why the impatience? I can't help but feel that many of the useful idiots in England who are sympathetic to a new vote are just indulging their reflex anti Tory beliefs. Have they thought about the Scots?
https://news.oxfordshire.gov.uk/investment-zones/
Oxfordshire County Council has written to government minsters to explain why it has decided the county should not bid to be involved in Whitehall’s investment zones initiative, which involves creating targeted areas where planning regulations would be relaxed in an attempt to drive growth.
Councillor Liz Leffman, Leader of Oxfordshire County Council, has written a formal letter to Simon Clark, Secretary of State for Levelling Up, to explain why it was thought this was not the right move for Oxfordshire.
She said: “We have thanked the government for inviting Oxfordshire to bid for investment zone status. We have decided not to progress this opportunity. Oxfordshire continues to support many very exciting business developments, particularly in the areas of science and technology, so in writing a letter to government I wanted to explain the logic behind why we feel that applying for an investment zone does not fit with our ambitions....
“We consider that the de-regularisation of planning controls and reductions in environmental protection, which appear to be a condition of any investment zone, are incompatible with our net zero carbon aspirations and our commitment to protect and enhance biodiversity and environmental quality, as stated in our vision.
Also look at this in terms of the $ - Russia is a commodity producer and commodities are priced in dollars. Which raises the question of what their GDP numbers will be like when commodities fall.
Plus, it's about the US - so long as they supply Ukraine, Ukraine can win.
Quite a few friends are using some of their WFH/pandemic enforced savings they've built up since March 2020.
Strapons are the new norm, Mail tells its readers
Warning: i know lot of you are old and fragile, I can’t be held responsible for any petite bodies you see in this article.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-11297521/Bisexual-Miss-Universe-Australia-Maria-Thattil-says-strap-ons-new-norm.html?dicbo=v2-bcc627c18f9f3ddc8d42a1e0c4ddc85d&ico=outbrain_footer
The mess created by the Brexit referendum is that legally advisory polls are now treated as politically binding. If Scotland votes to leave - and I believe we will this time simply because ScotCons will try and boycott it - it becomes politically very difficult to set the result aside. "Its only advisory" - and yet the Brexit vote bound the hands of successive parliaments despite also only being advisory.
The best result will be for the SC to rule against the Scottish government. But as they are asking for an advisory referendum which does not challenge the reserved powers held by Westminster, on what grounds would they say no? The SNP win either way. Sadly.
We saw in Brazil that Bolsinaro defied poll expectations in the first round and is climbing in the polls. Could be numerous factors but one that would fit the facts is Bolsinaro shy voters feeling more confident post his first round performance to come out and say they support him.
Do we still believe there is no 'shy GOP / Trump' factor in the US polls?
We all need good news in these desperate times
Well done Mum and Dad and baby and no doubt very excited daughter
Why call it earlier when something might turn up to save you?
Also, though I don't want to set Leon off again, we might all be in a nuclear wasteland next year where the only currencies of value will be baked beans and hazmat suits.
As Don Draper puts it, "I'm living like there's no tomorrow, because there isn't one".
That doesn't help those who aren't comfortably well off and living on the breadline, though. It's just a further bifurcation of society.
"But the energy price guarantee."
By whom exactly? Not the law I would have thought. It was determined that Theresa May had to get Parliamentary approval to enforce Article 50. Followed by years of arguments in Parliament about what to do including two general elections before we actually left. What would have happened if we hadn't left? There might have been civil unrest and MPs risked losing their seats at the next election but that didn't make it binding.
This Cabinet are as mad as mad can be.
Westminster intention was gerrof my turf
My point: A 2025 election means January 2025.
Depending on how and what you spend your money on, you could have been a big winner out of the last 3 years.
Russia exports commodities, particularly energy. 54% (last year!) of all exports were energy. The price of coal is up 4x, the price of their LNG cargoes to China and Japan has trebled, what they (previously) got for sending gas to Europe was at 6x what they got in 2021, and the price of oil is up, even if not so much.
In other words - and I said this months ago - the war is partially self funding because it increases the value of Russia's exports.
The problem is that the energy economy is not the economy of most of the country. If you work in a factory where parts have been cut off due to sanctions, then your factory isn't working. GDP in total can look fine, but you are personally doing shit.
And it doesn't help Russia with their core problem with the war: they are expending materiel far more quickly than they are producing it. Those drones and missiles and rockets rely on technology from China, Korea, Taiwan and Japan (and probably the UK, France and Germany too). Even the starter motors on their tanks are going to rely on batteries that aren't made in Russia.
That - not a GDP buouyed by energy prices - is Russia's problem.
Oh yeah... and every day Europe (and the world) gets less dependent and less hooked on Russian energy. So when the war ends, and it will end, Russia will see reduced prices and fewer customers. That's not a great place to be.
There is one overwhelming reason the Conservatives have lost control of Oxfordshire County Council, and three of its districts, within the space of a few years: local plans that signed up to massive greenfield development with below-par accompanying infrastructure. A, existing residents don't like it. B, when the new houses do go up, they take overspill from Oxford and London... and people from Oxford and London don't vote Tory. It's the classic Blue Wall story.
So along comes Truss with her plan to win back the Blue Wall: "We're going to offer you the chance to relax environmental and infrastructure standards, so you can build even more houses."
I think even Baldrick would find it difficult to describe that one as "cunning".