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A 2023 Truss exit now a 58% chance in the betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,737
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    glw said:

    Jonathan said:

    A semi skilled politician would have recovered from the special budget by now. Somehow Truss contrives to keep it all going and makes it worse. It’s quite impressive.

    The ‘not me gov’ line is almost as damaging as the u turn which itself was almost as bad as the original error.

    A semi-skilled politician wouldn't have done the half-a-budget in the first place, they were almost certainly warned that you can't simply announce big tax cuts and say wait several weeks for the numbers.

    It is quite simply one of the biggest politcal own goals I can recall. I don't feel the least bit sorry for Truss and Kwarteng, this is something that is their own damn fault.
    This is the bit I don't get. There was no need to do it at all. Just announce the energy support.
    And a Budget as usual in the Spring.
    They really thought it would be popular with everyone, wanted to make a mark immediately, and couldn't wait.

    Well, she got to make an impression like she wanted at least.
    I think a point that's been well made is them never having any proper experience of opposition. Plus the hubris of the Corbyn/Brexit years and cheap money meaning there was an unbelievably arrogant assumption people - whether it's the public or markets - would cheer whatever they did as long as it was the Conservative Party saying it. You see it with some of the culture wars stuff too, which totally forgets that while there's some mileage and popularity in pushing some buttons, go too far and there'll be a backlash, even from the usually sympathetic. There are Tory MPs who appear to think the nation are avid GB News viewers rather than small c conservative on a lot of matters. Similarly, while people and business like low taxes they take fright at an obvious attempt to slash them to remake society at a time of crisis and high borrowing as they don't think you can deliver - or should be when there are all to visible problems to solve first. Politicians who'd experienced their party's lower ebbs wouldn't forget that, how easy it is to lose credibility through a set of errors - and how hard it is to win back. Truss and most of her cabinet have lived a charmed life whereby they rarely had to exercise their political muscles, and many of those who had done have been turfed out of the party or cabinet for ideological reasons. Then you're left with a bunch of ministers who think they can run a government like their own personal think tank rather than managing competing interests and aiming at steady improvement.

    Major is the only real other modern PM to be similarly inexperienced in opposition, but was naturally cautious and had a cabinet with far more experience whereby most of the major positions were held by those who had served as MPs in the 70s. So while the country did turn against them and made errors, weren't stupid enough to screw everything up in their first few weeks.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,215
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Third time in my adult life I’ve felt that great, irresistible and irreversible sea change in voter sentiment. Once in 1992, after black Wednesday. Again in 2009, albeit more weakly, after the financial crisis. And now in 2022.

    This is the true meaning of democracy. You get the sense the public have just sat down and decided it’s time for a change. Time to give the other lot a go. There’s no going back now. Just as in the mid 1990s it’s a weight off the shoulders.

    Imagine living in an autocratic regime where that experience is denied you and politics is just frustration and resignation.

    Many of us felt like that, being in the EU. "We can never get rid of them, they just go on and on. We don't even have a vote"

    Hence, Brexit

    Do you begin to understand it, yet?
    I’m sure it may have felt like that to some, but it was far from the sea change moment we are taking about here. In recent polls 65%+ of the electorate are ready to ditch the Tories. In 2010 a similar proportion were ready to get Labour out and give someone else a go. In 2016 it was virtually 50:50. Much more like the Trump of the same year, Indyref 2015 or the Brazilian presidential election this year.

    What I’m talking about is consensus, across the divide. That’s a very different thing from vindication on one side of a divide.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,475
    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does Kemi Badenoch have a path to the leadership if Truss goes?

    Potentially good choice for opposition. Not a safe pair of hands to stabilise government.
    Yeah, I think Kemi needs a few years as LOTO. Up against dreary PM SKS she'll do well (and she'll be able to quietly ditch the culture wars stuff too)

    For Kemi's POV it would probably be better for her for Liz to stick around until the election disaster and then she (Kemi) can take over... If they go for Penny lets say and she manages to keep Con losses to a minimum shell deserve to be able to stick around as LOTO and maybe have another crack at an election in a few years.

    But on the other hand if Liz sticks around Kemi might not have much of a party left to take over lol.
    Kemi seems to be the latest magic solution to 12 years of failure.
    Do you think she would have been significantly better than Truss? Cos she ran on the same platform. With added culture war.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited October 2022
    One consideration that could open things up for Kemi is that Penny "only" had a 15K majority in her seat and she'd be at risk of losing it on current polling where as Kemi has a 27K majority in her seat and should be safe even in a Con meltdown.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,187

    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does Kemi Badenoch have a path to the leadership if Truss goes?

    Potentially good choice for opposition. Not a safe pair of hands to stabilise government.
    She doesn't have a radical fiscal agenda, so there's no reason she wouldn't be a suitable candidate if they're looking beyond the ex-PMs of Johnson and May.
    Another lightweight. The only worry with this one is she might make Truss look brilliant.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Fewer absentions this time? Honestly, even if you're a staunch opponent of 'the West', you'd think most of the abstainers would not want to open the idea that forcible annexation is ok. I mean, really Armenia?

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,862
    Scott_xP said:

    Tory MPs with huge majorities today saying they think they’ll lose their seat. They’re getting restless and impatient - more despair with every poll. Some have adopted a f**k it attitude and are sharing unfiltered thoughts cause they think nothing to lose
    https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1580310611061542913

    Oh really - is that why they're choosing to remain anonymous?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,215
    GIN1138 said:

    One consideration that could open things up for Kemi is that Penny "only" had a 15K majority in her seat and she'd be at risk of losing it on current polling where as Kemi has a 27K majority in her seat and should be safe even in Con meltdown.

    Kemi would fit with the pattern of promoting a youngster after a major defeat. Hague style.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    #Newsnight’s Political Editor @nicholaswatt examines whether momentum is building within the Tory party to replace the PM

    Where does Liz Truss go from here? https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1580312549886754819/video/1
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805

    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does Kemi Badenoch have a path to the leadership if Truss goes?

    Potentially good choice for opposition. Not a safe pair of hands to stabilise government.
    She doesn't have a radical fiscal agenda, so there's no reason she wouldn't be a suitable candidate if they're looking beyond the ex-PMs of Johnson and May.
    Have you given up on Truss?
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Seven one.

    The Old Firm in the Champions League are finding out what it's like generally to be a non-Old Firm team in the Scottish Premiership.
    People sometimes opine that Rangers and Celtic would be good additions to the Premier League, in reality they'd almost certainly end up in the Championship within a season or two.
    They would earn significantly more in the Championship, and even in League 2, than the pittance the SFA and SPFL have negotiated for Scottish football. With crowds of around 50,000 each week, they would probably be relegated to the Championship, but would soon return to the Premiership, where they would eventually settle as mid table teams. Scottish football would be more competitive and better without them.
    I'd love Celtic and Rangers in the EPL (we can call it the BPL)

    They have amazing passionate fans (OK they can get a bit punchy, but so can the English). Their support is fervent and their singing is brilliant. They have all the necessary traditions and big epic grounds. I am pretty sure that after a few years of EPL money they would be competing at the top, adding to the list of six or seven possible winners, and broadening the appeal of the league even more. One or both would be bought by some billionaire

    It is a damn shame it cannot happen, as things stands
    I think quite likely to be relegated at some point. There needs to be a plan for that.
    Welsh clubs have played in the EPL and have been relegated before.
    Exactly so. Celtic would have to be willing to play a wet Tuesday in Stoke.

    Personally, I would like to see Celtic and Rangers remain in the Scottish League. English clubs can play them in the European cups from time to time.
    And the Welsh clubs like Swansea and Cardiff??
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    It's a wild ride, for sure. Who are these "better, more ruthless players" who outmaneouvred our valiant zombie-slayers by the way? Is that supposed to designate the Libdems? The IFS? BBC Local Radio?
    https://twitter.com/joeyfjones/status/1580313425062031360
    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1580310743479902208
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,140
    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does Kemi Badenoch have a path to the leadership if Truss goes?

    Potentially good choice for opposition. Not a safe pair of hands to stabilise government.
    Yeah, I think Kemi needs a few years as LOTO. Up against dreary PM SKS she'll do well (and she'll be able to quietly ditch the culture wars stuff too)

    For Kemi's POV it would probably be better for her for Liz to stick around until the election disaster and then she (Kemi) can take over... If they go for Penny lets say and she manages to keep Con losses to a minimum shell deserve to be able to stick around as LOTO and maybe have another crack at an election in a few years.

    But on the other hand if Liz sticks around Kemi might not have much of a party left to take over lol.
    Kemi seems to be the latest magic solution to 12 years of failure.
    Do you think she would have been significantly better than Truss? Cos she ran on the same platform. With added culture war.
    One of the few candidates who could dig an even bigger hole for the Tories.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does Kemi Badenoch have a path to the leadership if Truss goes?

    Potentially good choice for opposition. Not a safe pair of hands to stabilise government.
    Yeah, I think Kemi needs a few years as LOTO. Up against dreary PM SKS she'll do well (and she'll be able to quietly ditch the culture wars stuff too)

    For Kemi's POV it would probably be better for her for Liz to stick around until the election disaster and then she (Kemi) can take over... If they go for Penny lets say and she manages to keep Con losses to a minimum shell deserve to be able to stick around as LOTO and maybe have another crack at an election in a few years.

    But on the other hand if Liz sticks around Kemi might not have much of a party left to take over lol.
    Kemi seems to be the latest magic solution to 12 years of failure.
    Do you think she would have been significantly better than Truss? Cos she ran on the same platform. With added culture war.
    Well she can actually string a sentence together and doesn't resemble an extra from Night Of The Living Dead so that's a start.

    The culture wars stuff is a concern and needs ditching (or a least modifying)

    Like I say, I can see her more as LOTO against PM Starmer building up her profile over 4 years or so. For now I'd go with Penny, as I would have done back in July.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,477
    I was very confident that Truss would lead the Tories into GE 2024, but I'm now having my doubts. It's one thing being unpopular; a PM can recover from that.

    But it's quite another thing being a figure of ridicule - much harder to come back from. I think both Truss and Kwarteng, over the last week or so, are starting to be seen as figures of ridicule. Not just seen as incompetent, but being laughed at for their absurdity. No way back from that, I think.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,910
    Leon said:

    glw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Seven one.

    The Old Firm in the Champions League are finding out what it's like generally to be a non-Old Firm team in the Scottish Premiership.
    People sometimes opine that Rangers and Celtic would be good additions to the Premier League, in reality they'd almost certainly end up in the Championship within a season or two.
    They would earn significantly more in the Championship, and even in League 2, than the pittance the SFA and SPFL have negotiated for Scottish football. With crowds of around 50,000 each week, they would probably be relegated to the Championship, but would soon return to the Premiership, where they would eventually settle as mid table teams. Scottish football would be more competitive and better without them.
    I'd love Celtic and Rangers in the EPL (we can call it the BPL)

    They have amazing passionate fans (OK they can get a bit punchy, but so can the English). Their support is fervent and their singing is brilliant. They have all the necessary traditions and big epic grounds. I am pretty sure that after a few years of EPL money they would be competing at the top, adding to the list of six or seven possible winners, and broadening the appeal of the league even more. One or both would be bought by some billionaire

    It is a damn shame it cannot happen, as things stands
    It would be a fairly hilarious turnaround if, after years of a Union and separate football leagues, we ended up with an independent Scotland and the two big Glasgow teams in the English League pyramid.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,140

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Seven one.

    The Old Firm in the Champions League are finding out what it's like generally to be a non-Old Firm team in the Scottish Premiership.
    People sometimes opine that Rangers and Celtic would be good additions to the Premier League, in reality they'd almost certainly end up in the Championship within a season or two.
    They would earn significantly more in the Championship, and even in League 2, than the pittance the SFA and SPFL have negotiated for Scottish football. With crowds of around 50,000 each week, they would probably be relegated to the Championship, but would soon return to the Premiership, where they would eventually settle as mid table teams. Scottish football would be more competitive and better without them.
    I'd love Celtic and Rangers in the EPL (we can call it the BPL)

    They have amazing passionate fans (OK they can get a bit punchy, but so can the English). Their support is fervent and their singing is brilliant. They have all the necessary traditions and big epic grounds. I am pretty sure that after a few years of EPL money they would be competing at the top, adding to the list of six or seven possible winners, and broadening the appeal of the league even more. One or both would be bought by some billionaire

    It is a damn shame it cannot happen, as things stands
    I think quite likely to be relegated at some point. There needs to be a plan for that.
    Welsh clubs have played in the EPL and have been relegated before.
    Exactly so. Celtic would have to be willing to play a wet Tuesday in Stoke.

    Personally, I would like to see Celtic and Rangers remain in the Scottish League. English clubs can play them in the European cups from time to time.
    And the Welsh clubs like Swansea and Cardiff??
    It's up to them.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    Everything is fine...

    EXC: Liz Truss gave a private speech outlining her economic approach to a Tory fundraising dinner last night

    £1.5k a ticket. At The Dorchester. 250+ there. ForeignSec, HomeSec, DeputyPM. Dinner with 1922 exec went for £25k

    Full story w/ @christopherhope:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/12/liz-truss-doubles-tax-cuts-1500-a-head-tory-fundraising-dinner/
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,862

    I was very confident that Truss would lead the Tories into GE 2024, but I'm now having my doubts. It's one thing being unpopular; a PM can recover from that.

    But it's quite another thing being a figure of ridicule - much harder to come back from. I think both Truss and Kwarteng, over the last week or so, are starting to be seen as figures of ridicule. Not just seen as incompetent, but being laughed at for their absurdity. No way back from that, I think.

    Margaret Thatcher's spitting image puppet would like a word.
  • Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Seven one.

    The Old Firm in the Champions League are finding out what it's like generally to be a non-Old Firm team in the Scottish Premiership.
    People sometimes opine that Rangers and Celtic would be good additions to the Premier League, in reality they'd almost certainly end up in the Championship within a season or two.
    They would earn significantly more in the Championship, and even in League 2, than the pittance the SFA and SPFL have negotiated for Scottish football. With crowds of around 50,000 each week, they would probably be relegated to the Championship, but would soon return to the Premiership, where they would eventually settle as mid table teams. Scottish football would be more competitive and better without them.
    I'd love Celtic and Rangers in the EPL (we can call it the BPL)

    They have amazing passionate fans (OK they can get a bit punchy, but so can the English). Their support is fervent and their singing is brilliant. They have all the necessary traditions and big epic grounds. I am pretty sure that after a few years of EPL money they would be competing at the top, adding to the list of six or seven possible winners, and broadening the appeal of the league even more. One or both would be bought by some billionaire

    It is a damn shame it cannot happen, as things stands
    I think quite likely to be relegated at some point. There needs to be a plan for that.
    AIUI the only thing stopping the merging of the English and Scottish leagues is the fear that FIFA would then say: Well there must be a British national football team, not four different teams

    Stop right there: Cardiff and Swansea have been in the EPL very recently, yet there's still a Wales Footy team.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    It’s now more likely than not that the mini-Budget will be withdrawn and that @KwasiKwarteng may have to go
    https://bit.ly/3eoKZIr
  • Andy_JS said:

    O/T
    My next blood donation is scheduled for Monday 24th. Better not miss it given the shortage of donors at the moment.

    I heard on Radio 2 it’s not so much a shortage of donors as a shortage of people to staff collection centres.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    Bob Seely on Newsnight: “If you [the PM] are going to make mistakes, make them in your first month, not your last”

    Er


    https://twitter.com/Whoozley/status/1580314306733711360
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,140
    Scott_xP said:

    Everything is fine...

    EXC: Liz Truss gave a private speech outlining her economic approach to a Tory fundraising dinner last night

    £1.5k a ticket. At The Dorchester. 250+ there. ForeignSec, HomeSec, DeputyPM. Dinner with 1922 exec went for £25k

    Full story w/ @christopherhope:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/12/liz-truss-doubles-tax-cuts-1500-a-head-tory-fundraising-dinner/

    Hardly troubling in these days of unlimited bonuses though. The price of a few bottles...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,300

    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does Kemi Badenoch have a path to the leadership if Truss goes?

    Potentially good choice for opposition. Not a safe pair of hands to stabilise government.
    She doesn't have a radical fiscal agenda, so there's no reason she wouldn't be a suitable candidate if they're looking beyond the ex-PMs of Johnson and May.
    Have you given up on Truss?
    I think it's good that she's put growth on the agenda and she's inadvertently done the country a favour by bringing some of the financial issues that have been stored up by governments since Gordon Brown to the surface, but she doesn't seem to have the gravitas or political touch that's required.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,724
    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does Kemi Badenoch have a path to the leadership if Truss goes?

    Potentially good choice for opposition. Not a safe pair of hands to stabilise government.
    Just another rightwing lunatic who has drunk her own kool-aid
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,140
    Scott_xP said:

    Bob Seely on Newsnight: “If you [the PM] are going to make mistakes, make them in your first month, not your last”

    Er


    https://twitter.com/Whoozley/status/1580314306733711360

    The new Grant Shapps, willing to defend the indefensible. He was doing the radio round this AM too.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,910
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Seven one.

    The Old Firm in the Champions League are finding out what it's like generally to be a non-Old Firm team in the Scottish Premiership.
    People sometimes opine that Rangers and Celtic would be good additions to the Premier League, in reality they'd almost certainly end up in the Championship within a season or two.
    They would earn significantly more in the Championship, and even in League 2, than the pittance the SFA and SPFL have negotiated for Scottish football. With crowds of around 50,000 each week, they would probably be relegated to the Championship, but would soon return to the Premiership, where they would eventually settle as mid table teams. Scottish football would be more competitive and better without them.
    I'd love Celtic and Rangers in the EPL (we can call it the BPL)

    They have amazing passionate fans (OK they can get a bit punchy, but so can the English). Their support is fervent and their singing is brilliant. They have all the necessary traditions and big epic grounds. I am pretty sure that after a few years of EPL money they would be competing at the top, adding to the list of six or seven possible winners, and broadening the appeal of the league even more. One or both would be bought by some billionaire

    It is a damn shame it cannot happen, as things stands
    I think quite likely to be relegated at some point. There needs to be a plan for that.
    AIUI the only thing stopping the merging of the English and Scottish leagues is the fear that FIFA would then say: Well there must be a British national football team, not four different teams

    The EPL should leverage its notable power to stop a club Super League (a concept which is hated by FIFA and UEFA) and say: the price for us maintaining that opposition is: we need to merge English and Scottish club football, but we get to keep England/Scotland as separate FIFA sides

    UK football is already uniquely constituted within football, anyway, so this would be just another quirk

    It would mean a lot of Scottish clubs would go to very low British "divisions", but on the whole Scottish football would benefit tremendously. Esp Rangers and Celtic
    Weren't Cardiff City, or was it Swansea, in the Premiership not too long ago? You could easily have the top few Scottish teams in the English leagues without it being the end of the Scottish FA.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Everything is fine...

    EXC: Liz Truss gave a private speech outlining her economic approach to a Tory fundraising dinner last night

    £1.5k a ticket. At The Dorchester. 250+ there. ForeignSec, HomeSec, DeputyPM. Dinner with 1922 exec went for £25k

    Full story w/ @christopherhope:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/12/liz-truss-doubles-tax-cuts-1500-a-head-tory-fundraising-dinner/

    Hardly troubling in these days of unlimited bonuses though. The price of a few bottles...
    Indeed, but the point is she still thinks her plan is working and she will still be in post long enough to deliver it.

    An intervention is required
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Scott_xP said:

    #Newsnight’s Political Editor @nicholaswatt examines whether momentum is building within the Tory party to replace the PM

    Where does Liz Truss go from here? https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1580312549886754819/video/1

    Truss needs to get to early January to not be the shortest serving PM ever (minus the contested ones). That'd be too humiliating, so she would do anything to avoid that, including complete u-turns. I cannot see it happening.
  • Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Seven one.

    The Old Firm in the Champions League are finding out what it's like generally to be a non-Old Firm team in the Scottish Premiership.
    People sometimes opine that Rangers and Celtic would be good additions to the Premier League, in reality they'd almost certainly end up in the Championship within a season or two.
    They would earn significantly more in the Championship, and even in League 2, than the pittance the SFA and SPFL have negotiated for Scottish football. With crowds of around 50,000 each week, they would probably be relegated to the Championship, but would soon return to the Premiership, where they would eventually settle as mid table teams. Scottish football would be more competitive and better without them.
    I'd love Celtic and Rangers in the EPL (we can call it the BPL)

    They have amazing passionate fans (OK they can get a bit punchy, but so can the English). Their support is fervent and their singing is brilliant. They have all the necessary traditions and big epic grounds. I am pretty sure that after a few years of EPL money they would be competing at the top, adding to the list of six or seven possible winners, and broadening the appeal of the league even more. One or both would be bought by some billionaire

    It is a damn shame it cannot happen, as things stands
    I think quite likely to be relegated at some point. There needs to be a plan for that.
    AIUI the only thing stopping the merging of the English and Scottish leagues is the fear that FIFA would then say: Well there must be a British national football team, not four different teams

    The EPL should leverage its notable power to stop a club Super League (a concept which is hated by FIFA and UEFA) and say: the price for us maintaining that opposition is: we need to merge English and Scottish club football, but we get to keep England/Scotland as separate FIFA sides

    UK football is already uniquely constituted within football, anyway, so this would be just another quirk

    It would mean a lot of Scottish clubs would go to very low British "divisions", but on the whole Scottish football would benefit tremendously. Esp Rangers and Celtic
    Weren't Cardiff City, or was it Swansea, in the Premiership not too long ago? You could easily have the top few Scottish teams in the English leagues without it being the end of the Scottish FA.
    I just said that :)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,862
    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Everything is fine...

    EXC: Liz Truss gave a private speech outlining her economic approach to a Tory fundraising dinner last night

    £1.5k a ticket. At The Dorchester. 250+ there. ForeignSec, HomeSec, DeputyPM. Dinner with 1922 exec went for £25k

    Full story w/ @christopherhope:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/12/liz-truss-doubles-tax-cuts-1500-a-head-tory-fundraising-dinner/

    Hardly troubling in these days of unlimited bonuses though. The price of a few bottles...
    Indeed, but the point is she still thinks her plan is working and she will still be in post long enough to deliver it.

    An intervention is required
    It's almost like you're not being listened to isn't it? I mean all those Tweets, doesn't she realise?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    I was very confident that Truss would lead the Tories into GE 2024, but I'm now having my doubts. It's one thing being unpopular; a PM can recover from that.

    But it's quite another thing being a figure of ridicule - much harder to come back from. I think both Truss and Kwarteng, over the last week or so, are starting to be seen as figures of ridicule. Not just seen as incompetent, but being laughed at for their absurdity. No way back from that, I think.

    John Major did become a figure of ridicule in the mid-90s but in his case there wasn't a clear alternative who would do better but there are several potential rivals to Liz.

    I'm very confident she won't lead the Conservatives into the next election (I said at the time she won the leadership Con would have to get rid of her at some point) It's just a question of how/when it happens Viz a Viz the next election (as Con will need to hold an election soon after Liz is jettisoned IMO)
  • I was very confident that Truss would lead the Tories into GE 2024, but I'm now having my doubts. It's one thing being unpopular; a PM can recover from that.

    But it's quite another thing being a figure of ridicule - much harder to come back from. I think both Truss and Kwarteng, over the last week or so, are starting to be seen as figures of ridicule. Not just seen as incompetent, but being laughed at for their absurdity. No way back from that, I think.

    Margaret Thatcher's spitting image puppet would like a word.
    Wasn't it the Vegetables who were the figures of ridicule?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,140

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T
    My next blood donation is scheduled for Monday 24th. Better not miss it given the shortage of donors at the moment.

    I heard on Radio 2 it’s not so much a shortage of donors as a shortage of people to staff collection centres.
    Yes, that is what was said on ITV News on Ten tonight too. NBTS trying to recruit and train 250 new staff it seems. One might well ask why they have lost so many...

    Apparently real problems in the transplant organ supply too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Third time in my adult life I’ve felt that great, irresistible and irreversible sea change in voter sentiment. Once in 1992, after black Wednesday. Again in 2009, albeit more weakly, after the financial crisis. And now in 2022.

    This is the true meaning of democracy. You get the sense the public have just sat down and decided it’s time for a change. Time to give the other lot a go. There’s no going back now. Just as in the mid 1990s it’s a weight off the shoulders.

    Imagine living in an autocratic regime where that experience is denied you and politics is just frustration and resignation.

    Many of us felt like that, being in the EU. "We can never get rid of them, they just go on and on. We don't even have a vote"

    Hence, Brexit

    Do you begin to understand it, yet?
    I’m sure it may have felt like that to some, but it was far from the sea change moment we are taking about here. In recent polls 65%+ of the electorate are ready to ditch the Tories. In 2010 a similar proportion were ready to get Labour out and give someone else a go. In 2016 it was virtually 50:50. Much more like the Trump of the same year, Indyref 2015 or the Brazilian presidential election this year.

    What I’m talking about is consensus, across the divide. That’s a very different thing from vindication on one side of a divide.
    You miss my point

    You were rejoicing in our democracy (and rightly, we can kick out these twats in an election), You were speculating how awful it must be to live in a non-democracy where you never get that chance. A lot of us felt the UK, as it became evermore absorbed into the anti-democratic EU, was becoming exactly that. A sham democracy, a fake

    I agree that this is one of THOSE moments when the consensus shifts. I disagree somewhat on your comparisons

    Yes this is like 1992-94 when suddenly Labour became the obvious next winners, after the ERM debacle, and after they put in Blair as leader. Starmer is not as good as Blair but the Tory catastrophe is bigger. Labour are going to win big in 2024

    I felt no such shift in 2008-2010, which is why Cameron didn't win a majority. The public was bored of Labour and Brown was a crap PM, but there was no tide towards the Tories

    I suggest two other times: 2019 when Get Brexit Done plus the horrors of Corbyn allowed Boris to win a large majority to everyone's surprise. That Christmas broadcast. Boris on the doorstep. Get Brexit Done. Genius. That was a shift, but maybe unique and not comparable

    Also 1983 when the mixture of the Falklands plus Michael Foot and the sense that Britain was turning a corner gave Thatcher her 2nd win and this time a huge majority
  • StarryStarry Posts: 111

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Seven one.

    The Old Firm in the Champions League are finding out what it's like generally to be a non-Old Firm team in the Scottish Premiership.
    People sometimes opine that Rangers and Celtic would be good additions to the Premier League, in reality they'd almost certainly end up in the Championship within a season or two.
    They would earn significantly more in the Championship, and even in League 2, than the pittance the SFA and SPFL have negotiated for Scottish football. With crowds of around 50,000 each week, they would probably be relegated to the Championship, but would soon return to the Premiership, where they would eventually settle as mid table teams. Scottish football would be more competitive and better without them.
    I'd love Celtic and Rangers in the EPL (we can call it the BPL)

    They have amazing passionate fans (OK they can get a bit punchy, but so can the English). Their support is fervent and their singing is brilliant. They have all the necessary traditions and big epic grounds. I am pretty sure that after a few years of EPL money they would be competing at the top, adding to the list of six or seven possible winners, and broadening the appeal of the league even more. One or both would be bought by some billionaire

    It is a damn shame it cannot happen, as things stands
    It would be a fairly hilarious turnaround if, after years of a Union and separate football leagues, we ended up with an independent Scotland and the two big Glasgow teams in the English League pyramid.
    You can have the Old Firm. Most people in Scotland don't support or like them. The Scottish League would be far more interesting without them and less toxic.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    Foxy said:

    Yes, that is what was said on ITV News on Ten tonight too. NBTS trying to recruit and train 250 new staff it seems. One might well ask why they have lost so many...

    Apparently real problems in the transplant organ supply too.

    If only there was a ready sourced of qualified staff on our doorstep we could make use of
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,477
    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does Kemi Badenoch have a path to the leadership if Truss goes?

    Potentially good choice for opposition. Not a safe pair of hands to stabilise government.
    Yeah, I think Kemi needs a few years as LOTO. Up against dreary PM SKS she'll do well (and she'll be able to quietly ditch the culture wars stuff too)

    For Kemi's POV it would probably be better for her for Liz to stick around until the election disaster and then she (Kemi) can take over... If they go for Penny lets say and she manages to keep Con losses to a minimum shell deserve to be able to stick around as LOTO and maybe have another crack at an election in a few years.

    But on the other hand if Liz sticks around Kemi might not have much of a party left to take over lol.
    Kemi seems to be the latest magic solution to 12 years of failure.
    Do you think she would have been significantly better than Truss? Cos she ran on the same platform. With added culture war.
    Well she can actually string a sentence together and doesn't resemble an extra from Night Of The Living Dead so that's a start.

    The culture wars stuff is a concern and needs ditching (or a least modifying)

    Like I say, I can see her more as LOTO against PM Starmer building up her profile over 4 years or so. For now I'd go with Penny, as I would have done back in July.
    I'm not sure if there's much left of Kemi if you ditch the culture wars stuff, though. It seems to be her main preoccupation, and was certainly her selling point in the leadership election.
  • Leon said:

    glw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Seven one.

    The Old Firm in the Champions League are finding out what it's like generally to be a non-Old Firm team in the Scottish Premiership.
    People sometimes opine that Rangers and Celtic would be good additions to the Premier League, in reality they'd almost certainly end up in the Championship within a season or two.
    They would earn significantly more in the Championship, and even in League 2, than the pittance the SFA and SPFL have negotiated for Scottish football. With crowds of around 50,000 each week, they would probably be relegated to the Championship, but would soon return to the Premiership, where they would eventually settle as mid table teams. Scottish football would be more competitive and better without them.
    I'd love Celtic and Rangers in the EPL (we can call it the BPL)

    They have amazing passionate fans (OK they can get a bit punchy, but so can the English). Their support is fervent and their singing is brilliant. They have all the necessary traditions and big epic grounds. I am pretty sure that after a few years of EPL money they would be competing at the top, adding to the list of six or seven possible winners, and broadening the appeal of the league even more. One or both would be bought by some billionaire

    It is a damn shame it cannot happen, as things stands
    It would be a fairly hilarious turnaround if, after years of a Union and separate football leagues, we ended up with an independent Scotland and the two big Glasgow teams in the English League pyramid.
    Oh please take them. Your cities would get very fed up with the behaviour of the Loyal Orange Masonic Huns. But be my guest. I am sure the two English clubs that would have to make way for them would be grateful, too.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    stjohn said:

    Mayday! Mayday!

    Truss needs to be persuaded to step down immediately and Tory MPs need to rally around PM Teresa May who should assemble a new cabinet selected on merit alone. There exists a sufficient enough number of able Tory MPs to form a convincing government that could stabilise the current crisis. The national interest demands this.

    Alright, how much money do you have on May as next PM? :)
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,477

    I was very confident that Truss would lead the Tories into GE 2024, but I'm now having my doubts. It's one thing being unpopular; a PM can recover from that.

    But it's quite another thing being a figure of ridicule - much harder to come back from. I think both Truss and Kwarteng, over the last week or so, are starting to be seen as figures of ridicule. Not just seen as incompetent, but being laughed at for their absurdity. No way back from that, I think.

    Margaret Thatcher's spitting image puppet would like a word.
    That was a comedy programme I believe, not everyday discourse.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    Liz Truss's speech to backbench MPs failed to pacify critical Tories, with some feeling that the embattled Prime Minister left the meeting in a worse position than she had been going into it
    https://bit.ly/3MptSTg
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,239
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    #Newsnight’s Political Editor @nicholaswatt examines whether momentum is building within the Tory party to replace the PM

    Where does Liz Truss go from here? https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1580312549886754819/video/1

    Truss needs to get to early January to not be the shortest serving PM ever (minus the contested ones). That'd be too humiliating, so she would do anything to avoid that, including complete u-turns. I cannot see it happening.
    Maybe she could hire this lady for a few weeks.
    https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1324175651515949056
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,956
    TimS said:

    Third time in my adult life I’ve felt that great, irresistible and irreversible sea change in voter sentiment. Once in 1992, after black Wednesday. Again in 2009, albeit more weakly, after the financial crisis. And now in 2022.

    This is the true meaning of democracy. You get the sense the public have just sat down and decided it’s time for a change. Time to give the other lot a go. There’s no going back now. Just as in the mid 1990s it’s a weight off the shoulders.

    Imagine living in an autocratic regime where that experience is denied you and politics is just frustration and resignation.

    I still think a Lab/LD coalition is more likely than a Lab majority. The polls won't stay like they are.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,239

    I was very confident that Truss would lead the Tories into GE 2024, but I'm now having my doubts. It's one thing being unpopular; a PM can recover from that.

    But it's quite another thing being a figure of ridicule - much harder to come back from. I think both Truss and Kwarteng, over the last week or so, are starting to be seen as figures of ridicule. Not just seen as incompetent, but being laughed at for their absurdity. No way back from that, I think.

    Margaret Thatcher's spitting image puppet would like a word.
    Wasn't it the Vegetables who were the figures of ridicule?
    A bit of ridicule is fine - it’s widespread, wholesale contempt that starts to be a problem.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    If you read one thing tonight, it should be this by the @ConHome editor on the mood of the Tory party & its options

    An exceptional writer, former Tory MP, impeccably connected across the party, @PaulGoodmanCH will be widely read on the government benches

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/10/12/its-now-more-likely-than-not-that-the-mini-budget-will-be-withdrawn-and-that-the-chancellor-may-have-to-go/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    The prospect of a GNU must be about to raise its mythical head again, surely?

    Though Labour would be mad to agree to one of course.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    ...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,140
    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Yes, that is what was said on ITV News on Ten tonight too. NBTS trying to recruit and train 250 new staff it seems. One might well ask why they have lost so many...

    Apparently real problems in the transplant organ supply too.

    If only there was a ready sourced of qualified staff on our doorstep we could make use of
    I think the problem here is the technical and collection staff rather than the medically qualified.

    There was quite a programme of closures and redundancies a few years ago.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2006/oct/03/health.politics
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,964

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Seven one.

    The Old Firm in the Champions League are finding out what it's like generally to be a non-Old Firm team in the Scottish Premiership.
    People sometimes opine that Rangers and Celtic would be good additions to the Premier League, in reality they'd almost certainly end up in the Championship within a season or two.
    They would earn significantly more in the Championship, and even in League 2, than the pittance the SFA and SPFL have negotiated for Scottish football. With crowds of around 50,000 each week, they would probably be relegated to the Championship, but would soon return to the Premiership, where they would eventually settle as mid table teams. Scottish football would be more competitive and better without them.
    I'd love Celtic and Rangers in the EPL (we can call it the BPL)

    They have amazing passionate fans (OK they can get a bit punchy, but so can the English). Their support is fervent and their singing is brilliant. They have all the necessary traditions and big epic grounds. I am pretty sure that after a few years of EPL money they would be competing at the top, adding to the list of six or seven possible winners, and broadening the appeal of the league even more. One or both would be bought by some billionaire

    It is a damn shame it cannot happen, as things stands
    It would be a fairly hilarious turnaround if, after years of a Union and separate football leagues, we ended up with an independent Scotland and the two big Glasgow teams in the English League pyramid.
    No it wouldn't and there is zero chance of Celtic ever joining the EPL
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    ...
  • Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Seven one.

    The Old Firm in the Champions League are finding out what it's like generally to be a non-Old Firm team in the Scottish Premiership.
    People sometimes opine that Rangers and Celtic would be good additions to the Premier League, in reality they'd almost certainly end up in the Championship within a season or two.
    They would earn significantly more in the Championship, and even in League 2, than the pittance the SFA and SPFL have negotiated for Scottish football. With crowds of around 50,000 each week, they would probably be relegated to the Championship, but would soon return to the Premiership, where they would eventually settle as mid table teams. Scottish football would be more competitive and better without them.
    I'd love Celtic and Rangers in the EPL (we can call it the BPL)

    They have amazing passionate fans (OK they can get a bit punchy, but so can the English). Their support is fervent and their singing is brilliant. They have all the necessary traditions and big epic grounds. I am pretty sure that after a few years of EPL money they would be competing at the top, adding to the list of six or seven possible winners, and broadening the appeal of the league even more. One or both would be bought by some billionaire

    It is a damn shame it cannot happen, as things stands
    I think quite likely to be relegated at some point. There needs to be a plan for that.
    AIUI the only thing stopping the merging of the English and Scottish leagues is the fear that FIFA would then say: Well there must be a British national football team, not four different teams

    The EPL should leverage its notable power to stop a club Super League (a concept which is hated by FIFA and UEFA) and say: the price for us maintaining that opposition is: we need to merge English and Scottish club football, but we get to keep England/Scotland as separate FIFA sides

    UK football is already uniquely constituted within football, anyway, so this would be just another quirk

    It would mean a lot of Scottish clubs would go to very low British "divisions", but on the whole Scottish football would benefit tremendously. Esp Rangers and Celtic
    I liked you better when you posted pictures of food from odd places. You know nothing about Scottish football, so just STFU before you make a bigger erse of yourself.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited October 2022
    stjohn said:

    Mayday! Mayday!

    Truss needs to be persuaded to step down immediately and Tory MPs need to rally around PM Teresa May who should assemble a new cabinet selected on merit alone. There exists a sufficient enough number of able Tory MPs to form a convincing government that could stabilise the current crisis. The national interest demands this.

    They probably could do worse than rally around Mrs May but would they dare let her have another stab at a general election?

    If she became PM she'd overtake Boris in the PM by tenure rankings though (as her second time as PM would get added to her first) so that would be quite funny.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Truss is done for. She and Kwazi have lost the confidence of the markets. Doesn't matter what they do now. They screwed it up.

    Tories for the good of the country and their own faint electoral hopes of survival need to get rid ASAP and have a coronation. It can't be Sunak as he was defeated by the membership.

    Step forward Penny Mordaunt.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,910

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Seven one.

    The Old Firm in the Champions League are finding out what it's like generally to be a non-Old Firm team in the Scottish Premiership.
    People sometimes opine that Rangers and Celtic would be good additions to the Premier League, in reality they'd almost certainly end up in the Championship within a season or two.
    They would earn significantly more in the Championship, and even in League 2, than the pittance the SFA and SPFL have negotiated for Scottish football. With crowds of around 50,000 each week, they would probably be relegated to the Championship, but would soon return to the Premiership, where they would eventually settle as mid table teams. Scottish football would be more competitive and better without them.
    I'd love Celtic and Rangers in the EPL (we can call it the BPL)

    They have amazing passionate fans (OK they can get a bit punchy, but so can the English). Their support is fervent and their singing is brilliant. They have all the necessary traditions and big epic grounds. I am pretty sure that after a few years of EPL money they would be competing at the top, adding to the list of six or seven possible winners, and broadening the appeal of the league even more. One or both would be bought by some billionaire

    It is a damn shame it cannot happen, as things stands
    It would be a fairly hilarious turnaround if, after years of a Union and separate football leagues, we ended up with an independent Scotland and the two big Glasgow teams in the English League pyramid.
    Oh please take them. Your cities would get very fed up with the behaviour of the Loyal Orange Masonic Huns. But be my guest. I am sure the two English clubs that would have to make way for them would be grateful, too.
    The following Welsh clubs are in the English League system:

    Cardiff City (Championship)
    Swansea City (Championship)
    Newport County (League Two)
    Wrexham (National League - 5th tier)
    Merthyr Town (7th tier)

    There don't ever seem to have been moves to expel them from the English leagues to make room for more English clubs.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    AlistairM said:

    Truss is done for. She and Kwazi have lost the confidence of the markets. Doesn't matter what they do now. They screwed it up.

    Tories for the good of the country and their own faint electoral hopes of survival need to get rid ASAP and have a coronation. It can't be Sunak as he was defeated by the membership.

    Step forward Penny Mordaunt.

    To regain the confidence of the markets it has to be Sunak
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,215
    edited October 2022
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Third time in my adult life I’ve felt that great, irresistible and irreversible sea change in voter sentiment. Once in 1992, after black Wednesday. Again in 2009, albeit more weakly, after the financial crisis. And now in 2022.

    This is the true meaning of democracy. You get the sense the public have just sat down and decided it’s time for a change. Time to give the other lot a go. There’s no going back now. Just as in the mid 1990s it’s a weight off the shoulders.

    Imagine living in an autocratic regime where that experience is denied you and politics is just frustration and resignation.

    Many of us felt like that, being in the EU. "We can never get rid of them, they just go on and on. We don't even have a vote"

    Hence, Brexit

    Do you begin to understand it, yet?
    I’m sure it may have felt like that to some, but it was far from the sea change moment we are taking about here. In recent polls 65%+ of the electorate are ready to ditch the Tories. In 2010 a similar proportion were ready to get Labour out and give someone else a go. In 2016 it was virtually 50:50. Much more like the Trump of the same year, Indyref 2015 or the Brazilian presidential election this year.

    What I’m talking about is consensus, across the divide. That’s a very different thing from vindication on one side of a divide.
    You miss my point

    You were rejoicing in our democracy (and rightly, we can kick out these twats in an election), You were speculating how awful it must be to live in a non-democracy where you never get that chance. A lot of us felt the UK, as it became evermore absorbed into the anti-democratic EU, was becoming exactly that. A sham democracy, a fake

    I agree that this is one of THOSE moments when the consensus shifts. I disagree somewhat on your comparisons

    Yes this is like 1992-94 when suddenly Labour became the obvious next winners, after the ERM debacle, and after they put in Blair as leader. Starmer is not as good as Blair but the Tory catastrophe is bigger. Labour are going to win big in 2024

    I felt no such shift in 2008-2010, which is why Cameron didn't win a majority. The public was bored of Labour and Brown was a crap PM, but there was no tide towards the Tories

    I suggest two other times: 2019 when Get Brexit Done plus the horrors of Corbyn allowed Boris to win a large majority to everyone's surprise. That Christmas broadcast. Boris on the doorstep. Get Brexit Done. Genius. That was a shift, but maybe
    unique and not comparable

    Also 1983 when the mixture of the Falklands
    plus Michael Foot and the sense that Britain
    was turning a corner gave Thatcher her 2nd
    win and this time a huge
    majority
    OK I sort of get that though it was always in the hands of the electorate to vote for an anti-EU party if they so wished.

    2019 and 1983 didn’t feel like a sea change (though admittedly I was pretty young in 1983). Nor say 2001 when Labour won a big majority with a small turnout, or 2020 when Biden saw off Trump. They were elections where the opposition was divided and listless but defiant, rather than ones driven by consensus.

    The sense I get is that even Tories are giving up, and almost wishing Starmer well while they prepare to regroup.

    In 2019 there was perhaps a bit of this on Brexit. Remain supporters like me felt that final relief - the lifting of the weight - of total defeat, I’ll give you that. Resignation, though not through warming to the Brexit cause. More the political equivalent of the defeated floppiness the caught animal succumbs to in the jaws of a predator as the body floods with the final surge of endorphins.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,956
    AlistairM said:

    Truss is done for. She and Kwazi have lost the confidence of the markets. Doesn't matter what they do now. They screwed it up.

    Tories for the good of the country and their own faint electoral hopes of survival need to get rid ASAP and have a coronation. It can't be Sunak as he was defeated by the membership.

    Step forward Penny Mordaunt.

    Problem is most on the left traditionally say governments shouldn't be beholden to the markets.
  • I was very confident that Truss would lead the Tories into GE 2024, but I'm now having my doubts. It's one thing being unpopular; a PM can recover from that.

    But it's quite another thing being a figure of ridicule - much harder to come back from. I think both Truss and Kwarteng, over the last week or so, are starting to be seen as figures of ridicule. Not just seen as incompetent, but being laughed at for their absurdity. No way back from that, I think.

    Margaret Thatcher's spitting image puppet would like a word.
    Wasn't it the Vegetables who were the figures of ridicule?
    Spitting Image may not have liked Maggie, but at some level they admired her, in a way that needs a more florid writer then me to describe.

    Major was ridiculed and pitied, which was understandable career death. But there was always a sense of him being a victim of forces he couldn't control.

    Truss's genius has been to become the victim of forces she brought upon herself. Maggie's madness and Major's weakness. And in a month as well...

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,300
    Scott_xP said:

    AlistairM said:

    Truss is done for. She and Kwazi have lost the confidence of the markets. Doesn't matter what they do now. They screwed it up.

    Tories for the good of the country and their own faint electoral hopes of survival need to get rid ASAP and have a coronation. It can't be Sunak as he was defeated by the membership.

    Step forward Penny Mordaunt.

    To regain the confidence of the markets it has to be Sunak
    You're endorsing a Brexiteer who wants to get all legacy EU law off the statute books before the next election?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Scott_xP said:

    AlistairM said:

    Truss is done for. She and Kwazi have lost the confidence of the markets. Doesn't matter what they do now. They screwed it up.

    Tories for the good of the country and their own faint electoral hopes of survival need to get rid ASAP and have a coronation. It can't be Sunak as he was defeated by the membership.

    Step forward Penny Mordaunt.

    To regain the confidence of the markets it has to be Sunak
    Unless he became Chancellor again...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    GIN1138 said:

    I was very confident that Truss would lead the Tories into GE 2024, but I'm now having my doubts. It's one thing being unpopular; a PM can recover from that.

    But it's quite another thing being a figure of ridicule - much harder to come back from. I think both Truss and Kwarteng, over the last week or so, are starting to be seen as figures of ridicule. Not just seen as incompetent, but being laughed at for their absurdity. No way back from that, I think.

    John Major did become a figure of ridicule in the mid-90s but in his case there wasn't a clear alternative who would do better but there are several potential rivals to Liz.

    I'm very confident she won't lead the Conservatives into the next election (I said at the time she won the leadership Con would have to get rid of her at some point) It's just a question of how/when it happens Viz a Viz the next election (as Con will need to hold an election soon after Liz is jettisoned IMO)
    That's the rub, though. Say replacing Liz by X reduces the Labour lead from 25 to 15. If it can only happen with an election soon afterwards, that's still a mass purge of Tory MPs. If you're a Conservative MP and you like the job, you may prefer two years under Liz - who might turn up trumps after all, who knows - to 6 months under X, even if you expect to lose your seat either way.

    But could X soldier on from 2023 to 2024? It's hard to see, as you say. so maybe change is not as certain as is generally supposed.
  • Scott_xP said:

    AlistairM said:

    Truss is done for. She and Kwazi have lost the confidence of the markets. Doesn't matter what they do now. They screwed it up.

    Tories for the good of the country and their own faint electoral hopes of survival need to get rid ASAP and have a coronation. It can't be Sunak as he was defeated by the membership.

    Step forward Penny Mordaunt.

    To regain the confidence of the
    markets it has to be Sunak
    You're endorsing a Brexiteer who wants to get all legacy EU law off the statute books before the next election?
    Well, Sunak probably has more hedge funds friends than even Kwasi...

  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Unspun World just started on BBC 2. I'm a big fan. I think this is the best BBC News programme currently.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,140
    Scott_xP said:

    AlistairM said:

    Truss is done for. She and Kwazi have lost the confidence of the markets. Doesn't matter what they do now. They screwed it up.

    Tories for the good of the country and their own faint electoral hopes of survival need to get rid ASAP and have a coronation. It can't be Sunak as he was defeated by the membership.

    Step forward Penny Mordaunt.

    To regain the confidence of the markets it has to be Sunak
    Mordaunt as PM, Sunak as CoE would be the Tories best choice.

    It ain't going to happen though.
  • RobD said:

    stjohn said:

    Mayday! Mayday!

    Truss needs to be persuaded to step down immediately and Tory MPs need to rally around PM Teresa May who should assemble a new cabinet selected on merit alone. There exists a sufficient enough number of able Tory MPs to form a convincing government that could stabilise the current crisis. The national interest demands this.

    Alright, how much money do you have on May as next PM? :)
    You're missing the important thing.

    If May got a few months more as PM, she would overtake her successor in the PM longevity stakes, and that would really annoy him.
  • GIN1138 said:

    I was very confident that Truss would lead the Tories into GE 2024, but I'm now having my doubts. It's one thing being unpopular; a PM can recover from that.

    But it's quite another thing being a figure of ridicule - much harder to come back from. I think both Truss and Kwarteng, over the last week or so, are starting to be seen as figures of ridicule. Not just seen as incompetent, but being laughed at for their absurdity. No way back from that, I think.

    John Major did become a figure of ridicule in the mid-90s but in his case there wasn't a clear alternative who
    would do better but there are several potential rivals to Liz.


    I'm very confident she won't lead the Conservatives into the next election (I said at the time she won the leadership Con would have to get rid of her at some point) It's just a question of how/when it happens Viz a Viz the next election (as Con will need to hold an election soon after Liz is jettisoned IMO)
    The clear rival ‘Twas Portaloo, n’est pas?

    Portillo was the head ‘bastard’ and Howard/Lillee would have backed him

    Isn’t it almost harder now? Truss is shite, but Sunack has been rejected by the members, Mordaunt, Badenoch and Braverman, Zahawi, Tugendhat and Hunt by MPs. Which leaves Gove, Raab, Patel…

    This could have been the best leadership election to not stand in!

    Cleverly…?


  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,300
    Scott_xP said:
    Those liabilities would still have been there without Brexit. We've just stopped accumulating new ones.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,964

    GIN1138 said:

    I was very confident that Truss would lead the Tories into GE 2024, but I'm now having my doubts. It's one thing being unpopular; a PM can recover from that.

    But it's quite another thing being a figure of ridicule - much harder to come back from. I think both Truss and Kwarteng, over the last week or so, are starting to be seen as figures of ridicule. Not just seen as incompetent, but being laughed at for their absurdity. No way back from that, I think.

    John Major did become a figure of ridicule in the mid-90s but in his case there wasn't a clear alternative who
    would do better but there are several potential rivals to Liz.


    I'm very confident she won't lead the Conservatives into the next election (I said at the time she won the leadership Con would have to get rid of her at some point) It's just a question of how/when it happens Viz a Viz the next election (as Con will need to hold an election soon after Liz is jettisoned IMO)
    The clear rival ‘Twas Portaloo, n’est pas?

    Portillo was the head ‘bastard’ and Howard/Lillee would have backed him

    Isn’t it almost harder now? Truss is shite, but Sunack has been rejected by the members, Mordaunt, Badenoch and Braverman, Zahawi, Tugendhat and Hunt by MPs. Which leaves Gove, Raab, Patel…

    This could have been the best leadership election to not stand in!

    Cleverly…?


    Wallace
  • stjohn said:

    Mayday! Mayday!

    Truss needs to be persuaded to step down immediately and Tory MPs need to rally around PM Teresa May who should assemble a new cabinet selected on merit alone. There exists a sufficient enough number of able Tory MPs to form a convincing government that could stabilise the current crisis. The national interest demands this.

    Funny how the left complains about Governments being beholden to the financial markets and yet here we hear the key thing is to ensure stability of the financial markets. Somehow I don't think you would be pushing this line if Corbyn had been elected and there was a similar reaction.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,105
    "Once you flinch once the blood is in the water, the sharks circle."

    Harry Cole, Political Editor of The Sun, says there is trouble in the water for Liz Truss and her premiership is damaged below the water line.

    @tnewtondunn | @MrHarryCole https://twitter.com/FirstEdition/status/1580312734595690497/video/1
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,300
    @lisaabramowicz1
    U.S. 30-year mortgage rates keep climbing, now to 6.81%, the highest in 16 years:


    image

    https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1580158333847482373
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,140

    stjohn said:

    Mayday! Mayday!

    Truss needs to be persuaded to step down immediately and Tory MPs need to rally around PM Teresa May who should assemble a new cabinet selected on merit alone. There exists a sufficient enough number of able Tory MPs to form a convincing government that could stabilise the current crisis. The national interest demands this.

    Funny how the left complains about Governments being beholden to the financial markets and yet here we hear the key thing is to ensure stability of the financial markets. Somehow I don't think you would be pushing this line if Corbyn had been elected and there was a similar reaction.

    If you run a balanced budget then you can largely let the markets do as they please. If you have to borrow to spend you cannot, and he who pays the piper calls the tune.

    It is one of several reasons that, while broadly centre-left in outlook, I strongly support a balanced budget.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861

    stjohn said:

    Mayday! Mayday!

    Truss needs to be persuaded to step down immediately and Tory MPs need to rally around PM Teresa May who should assemble a new cabinet selected on merit alone. There exists a sufficient enough number of able Tory MPs to form a convincing government that could stabilise the current crisis. The national interest demands this.

    Funny how the left complains about Governments being beholden to the financial markets and yet here we hear the key thing is to ensure stability of the financial markets. Somehow I don't think you would be pushing this line if Corbyn had been elected and there was a similar reaction.

    I don't follow you. I'm not "left". I'm centrist (slightly left of centre). I didn't/couldn't vote Labour when Corbyn was leader and I absolutely would be calling for a Labour moderate/centrist to replace Corbyn if Corbyn had crashed the economy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Scott_xP said:
    Isn't that paid over many decades? That would make it a rounding error on the yearly expenditure.
  • RunDeepRunDeep Posts: 77
    AlistairM said:

    Truss is done for. She and Kwazi have lost the confidence of the markets. Doesn't matter what they do now. They screwed it up.

    Tories for the good of the country and their own faint electoral hopes of survival need to get rid ASAP and have a coronation. It can't be Sunak as he was defeated by the membership.

    Step forward Penny Mordaunt.

    Ms Mordaunt is a member of Truss's government and was saying last week that the government's policies were right. It was just the communication which was bad.

    Why would she be any better? She sucked up to Truss to get a job. She said nothing memorable about the economy when she stood and the person who ran her leadership campaign was Andrea Leadsom (her likely Chancellor) who has some pretty loopy right wing views of her own.

    The party membership need to be told that it is the country's interests which matter. Not theirs.
  • HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Seven one.

    The Old Firm in the Champions League are finding out what it's like generally to be a non-Old Firm team in the Scottish Premiership.
    People sometimes opine that Rangers and Celtic would be good additions to the Premier League, in reality they'd almost certainly end up in the Championship within a season or two.
    They would earn significantly more in the Championship, and even in League 2, than the pittance the SFA and SPFL have negotiated for Scottish football. With crowds of around 50,000 each week, they would probably be relegated to the Championship, but would soon return to the Premiership, where they would eventually settle as mid table teams. Scottish football would be more competitive and better without them.
    I'd love Celtic and Rangers in the EPL (we can call it the BPL)

    They have amazing passionate fans (OK they can get a bit punchy, but so can the English). Their support is fervent and their singing is brilliant. They have all the necessary traditions and big epic grounds. I am pretty sure that after a few years of EPL money they would be competing at the top, adding to the list of six or seven possible winners, and broadening the appeal of the league even more. One or both would be bought by some billionaire

    It is a damn shame it cannot happen, as things stands
    It would be a fairly hilarious turnaround if, after years of a Union and separate football leagues, we ended up with an independent Scotland and the two big Glasgow teams in the English League pyramid.
    No it wouldn't and there is zero chance of Celtic ever joining the EPL
    Agreed. What about the Bluenosed royal brown nosers?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,994
    What annoys me reading tonight is that all the blame for where we are is being put on truss and kwasi. Have they made things worse certainly they have and I have no liking for either.

    However where we are is the end point of 30 odd years of centrist social democratic style governement. It has left millions in this country unable to live despite working 40 hours a week without having to rely on governement handouts or food banks or both.

    Most of that time spent within the EU before anyone goes yeah but brexit. Centrist governments have failed a lot of people in this country while companies and their directors made out like bandits. The difference now is it is beginning to hit people on this board most of whom weren't in those bottom cohorts so now you are starting to cry and whine about it.

    Welcome to the poorhouse you deserve it.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,135
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Isn't that paid over many decades? That would make it a rounding error on the yearly expenditure.
    Also much of the "bill" was things like pensions that would have had to have been paid anyway.

    It's three years' net EU contributions, or two years' gross which is basically the length of time Remainers spent trying to overturn the democratic result.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,158
    edited October 2022

    I was very confident that Truss would lead the Tories into GE 2024, but I'm now having my doubts. It's one thing being unpopular; a PM can recover from that.

    But it's quite another thing being a figure of ridicule - much harder to come back from. I think both Truss and Kwarteng, over the last week or so, are starting to be seen as figures of ridicule. Not just seen as incompetent, but being laughed at for their absurdity. No way back from that, I think.

    I’m dining each evening all dressed up on the Queen Mary 2, stuffed full of well off British pensioners and their American equivalents. Among the Brits, she’s already a figure of either pity or ridicule; the Americans don’t really understand how things got so bad since they thought their problems were the more immediate.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,187
    Pagan2 said:

    What annoys me reading tonight is that all the blame for where we are is being put on truss and kwasi. Have they made things worse certainly they have and I have no liking for either.

    However where we are is the end point of 30 odd years of centrist social democratic style governement. It has left millions in this country unable to live despite working 40 hours a week without having to rely on governement handouts or food banks or both.

    Most of that time spent within the EU before anyone goes yeah but brexit. Centrist governments have failed a lot of people in this country while companies and their directors made out like bandits. The difference now is it is beginning to hit people on this board most of whom weren't in those bottom cohorts so now you are starting to cry and whine about it.

    Welcome to the poorhouse you deserve it.

    So you are blaming 30 years of "Centrist governments".

    Presumably you believe that 30 years of extremist governments would have been better?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,158
    Scott_xP said:

    Bob Seely on Newsnight: “If you [the PM] are going to make mistakes, make them in your first month, not your last”

    Er


    https://twitter.com/Whoozley/status/1580314306733711360

    What if both are the same month?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,135

    @lisaabramowicz1
    U.S. 30-year mortgage rates keep climbing, now to 6.81%, the highest in 16 years:


    image

    https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1580158333847482373

    Good God. Clearly American bond markets have been anticipating Kwasi's budget by at least a year.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,314
    Pagan2 said:

    What annoys me reading tonight is that all the blame for where we are is being put on truss and kwasi. Have they made things worse certainly they have and I have no liking for either.

    However where we are is the end point of 30 odd years of centrist social democratic style governement. It has left millions in this country unable to live despite working 40 hours a week without having to rely on governement handouts or food banks or both.

    Most of that time spent within the EU before anyone goes yeah but brexit. Centrist governments have failed a lot of people in this country while companies and their directors made out like bandits. The difference now is it is beginning to hit people on this board most of whom weren't in those bottom cohorts so now you are starting to cry and whine about it.

    Welcome to the poorhouse you deserve it.

    Oh dear. It's all Labour's fault despite being out of power for 12 years...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    Pagan2 said:

    What annoys me reading tonight is that all the blame for where we are is being put on truss and kwasi. Have they made things worse certainly they have and I have no liking for either.

    However where we are is the end point of 30 odd years of centrist social democratic style governement. It has left millions in this country unable to live despite working 40 hours a week without having to rely on governement handouts or food banks or both.

    Most of that time spent within the EU before anyone goes yeah but brexit. Centrist governments have failed a lot of people in this country while companies and their directors made out like bandits. The difference now is it is beginning to hit people on this board most of whom weren't in those bottom cohorts so now you are starting to cry and whine about it.

    Welcome to the poorhouse you deserve it.

    What are you smoking? 30 years of centrist social democratic style government? 17 of those years have been Tory-led, including years of pointless austerity.

    You are in la-la land if you think the current economic catastrophes are caused by too much social democracy.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,994

    Pagan2 said:

    What annoys me reading tonight is that all the blame for where we are is being put on truss and kwasi. Have they made things worse certainly they have and I have no liking for either.

    However where we are is the end point of 30 odd years of centrist social democratic style governement. It has left millions in this country unable to live despite working 40 hours a week without having to rely on governement handouts or food banks or both.

    Most of that time spent within the EU before anyone goes yeah but brexit. Centrist governments have failed a lot of people in this country while companies and their directors made out like bandits. The difference now is it is beginning to hit people on this board most of whom weren't in those bottom cohorts so now you are starting to cry and whine about it.

    Welcome to the poorhouse you deserve it.

    So you are blaming 30 years of "Centrist governments".

    Presumably you believe that 30 years of extremist governments would have been better?
    Not what I am saying at all nor am I blaming centrist governments. I said centrist social democratic governements....the ones that always expand the state and get it to do more and more instead of saying this is how much money we have what can we do properly that will do most good they want to do more stuff and spread the money ever more thinly so we do less and less well and then raise taxes to keep pace because the one thing you can guarantee with anything the state does is that every year it will need more than inflation rise in expenditure just to stand still.

    We need a reset, a conversation. What are absolute necessities for the state to do....how much tax does that cost. Then what are second priorities and what how much more can we raise from tax without driving millions into poverty and we decide which we will continue.

    Note there I am not ruling out tax rises. Just saying there is a limit to what we can raise in tax. Lets decide what to do with it then do it well in descending order of priority till we are spending only what we can raise. Sorry you find that contentious.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,314

    Pagan2 said:

    What annoys me reading tonight is that all the blame for where we are is being put on truss and kwasi. Have they made things worse certainly they have and I have no liking for either.

    However where we are is the end point of 30 odd years of centrist social democratic style governement. It has left millions in this country unable to live despite working 40 hours a week without having to rely on governement handouts or food banks or both.

    Most of that time spent within the EU before anyone goes yeah but brexit. Centrist governments have failed a lot of people in this country while companies and their directors made out like bandits. The difference now is it is beginning to hit people on this board most of whom weren't in those bottom cohorts so now you are starting to cry and whine about it.

    Welcome to the poorhouse you deserve it.

    What are you smoking? 30 years of centrist social democratic style government? 17 of those years have been Tory-led, including years of pointless austerity.

    You are in la-la land if you think the current economic catastrophes are caused by too much social democracy.
    It's the same demented belief Peter Hitchens has that it was actually John Major founded New Labour and that New Labour are still in office.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    RobD said:

    stjohn said:

    Mayday! Mayday!

    Truss needs to be persuaded to step down immediately and Tory MPs need to rally around PM Teresa May who should assemble a new cabinet selected on merit alone. There exists a sufficient enough number of able Tory MPs to form a convincing government that could stabilise the current crisis. The national interest demands this.

    Alright, how much money do you have on May as next PM? :)
    About £50 at approx 100/1. So £5k payout if it happens. So yes, I'm talking up my book.

    But far more important than what happens to my £50 bet is what happens to everyone in the UK's finances while this incompetent government piles further avoidable damage to our economic prospects.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    It’s not good for you when even Tory MPs are using things like “Truss Premium” when talking about their current concerns


  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,994

    Pagan2 said:

    What annoys me reading tonight is that all the blame for where we are is being put on truss and kwasi. Have they made things worse certainly they have and I have no liking for either.

    However where we are is the end point of 30 odd years of centrist social democratic style governement. It has left millions in this country unable to live despite working 40 hours a week without having to rely on governement handouts or food banks or both.

    Most of that time spent within the EU before anyone goes yeah but brexit. Centrist governments have failed a lot of people in this country while companies and their directors made out like bandits. The difference now is it is beginning to hit people on this board most of whom weren't in those bottom cohorts so now you are starting to cry and whine about it.

    Welcome to the poorhouse you deserve it.

    Oh dear. It's all Labour's fault despite being out of power for 12 years...
    Where did I blame labour. I put the blame on both tories and labour because those are the governements we have had and till 2016 from 1992 we have had centrist governements that are social democratic in nature. Our current crisis didnt just appear over the last few years its been decades building with politicians kicking the can down the road because borrowing off future generations is easier.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,314
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    What annoys me reading tonight is that all the blame for where we are is being put on truss and kwasi. Have they made things worse certainly they have and I have no liking for either.

    However where we are is the end point of 30 odd years of centrist social democratic style governement. It has left millions in this country unable to live despite working 40 hours a week without having to rely on governement handouts or food banks or both.

    Most of that time spent within the EU before anyone goes yeah but brexit. Centrist governments have failed a lot of people in this country while companies and their directors made out like bandits. The difference now is it is beginning to hit people on this board most of whom weren't in those bottom cohorts so now you are starting to cry and whine about it.

    Welcome to the poorhouse you deserve it.

    So you are blaming 30 years of "Centrist governments".

    Presumably you believe that 30 years of extremist governments would have been better?
    Not what I am saying at all nor am I blaming centrist governments. I said centrist social democratic governements....the ones that always expand the state and get it to do more and more instead of saying this is how much money we have what can we do properly that will do most good they want to do more stuff and spread the money ever more thinly so we do less and less well and then raise taxes to keep pace because the one thing you can guarantee with anything the state does is that every year it will need more than inflation rise in expenditure just to stand still.

    We need a reset, a conversation. What are absolute necessities for the state to do....how much tax does that cost. Then what are second priorities and what how much more can we raise from tax without driving millions into poverty and we decide which we will continue.

    Note there I am not ruling out tax rises. Just saying there is a limit to what we can raise in tax. Lets decide what to do with it then do it well in descending order of priority till we are spending only what we can raise. Sorry you find that contentious.
    Wanting to borrow to fund tax cuts for people who earn over £150,000 a year is 'social democracy' apparently...
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,994
    edited October 2022

    Pagan2 said:

    What annoys me reading tonight is that all the blame for where we are is being put on truss and kwasi. Have they made things worse certainly they have and I have no liking for either.

    However where we are is the end point of 30 odd years of centrist social democratic style governement. It has left millions in this country unable to live despite working 40 hours a week without having to rely on governement handouts or food banks or both.

    Most of that time spent within the EU before anyone goes yeah but brexit. Centrist governments have failed a lot of people in this country while companies and their directors made out like bandits. The difference now is it is beginning to hit people on this board most of whom weren't in those bottom cohorts so now you are starting to cry and whine about it.

    Welcome to the poorhouse you deserve it.

    What are you smoking? 30 years of centrist social democratic style government? 17 of those years have been Tory-led, including years of pointless austerity.

    You are in la-la land if you think the current economic catastrophes are caused by too much social democracy.
    It's the same demented belief Peter Hitchens has that it was actually John Major founded New Labour and that New Labour are still in office.
    Oh do fuck off if you don't think Cameron and major both ran governements that werent social democratic.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    We’ve heard it all before from the Tory MPs who took an age to get rid of Johnson and will likely hang around moaning for months about Truss .

    If they had any sense they’d tell Brady to change the rules for challenges and also that due to exceptional circumstances the MPs will pick the next PM .

    The Tory membership clearly can’t be trusted to not install someone even worse than the Maggie clone and should be treated as a clear and present danger to the UK !
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,994

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    What annoys me reading tonight is that all the blame for where we are is being put on truss and kwasi. Have they made things worse certainly they have and I have no liking for either.

    However where we are is the end point of 30 odd years of centrist social democratic style governement. It has left millions in this country unable to live despite working 40 hours a week without having to rely on governement handouts or food banks or both.

    Most of that time spent within the EU before anyone goes yeah but brexit. Centrist governments have failed a lot of people in this country while companies and their directors made out like bandits. The difference now is it is beginning to hit people on this board most of whom weren't in those bottom cohorts so now you are starting to cry and whine about it.

    Welcome to the poorhouse you deserve it.

    So you are blaming 30 years of "Centrist governments".

    Presumably you believe that 30 years of extremist governments would have been better?
    Not what I am saying at all nor am I blaming centrist governments. I said centrist social democratic governements....the ones that always expand the state and get it to do more and more instead of saying this is how much money we have what can we do properly that will do most good they want to do more stuff and spread the money ever more thinly so we do less and less well and then raise taxes to keep pace because the one thing you can guarantee with anything the state does is that every year it will need more than inflation rise in expenditure just to stand still.

    We need a reset, a conversation. What are absolute necessities for the state to do....how much tax does that cost. Then what are second priorities and what how much more can we raise from tax without driving millions into poverty and we decide which we will continue.

    Note there I am not ruling out tax rises. Just saying there is a limit to what we can raise in tax. Lets decide what to do with it then do it well in descending order of priority till we are spending only what we can raise. Sorry you find that contentious.
    Wanting to borrow to fund tax cuts for people who earn over £150,000 a year is 'social democracy' apparently...
    Where did I say that? Clue I didnt learn to read please. From Major to cameron we had 30 years of social democratic style governements both tory and labour. They laid the foundation for our current crisis and I already said I think truss and karteng made things worse still however the foundation was laid in the big state years
    from 1992 to 2016
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,158
    nico679 said:

    We’ve heard it all before from the Tory MPs who took an age to get rid of Johnson and will likely hang around moaning for months about Truss .

    If they had any sense they’d tell Brady to change the rules for challenges and also that due to exceptional circumstances the MPs will pick the next PM .

    The Tory membership clearly can’t be trusted to not install someone even worse than the Maggie clone and should be treated as a clear and present danger to the UK !

    It was the MPs that put Lolz Truss into the final, instead of Mordaunt.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    What annoys me reading tonight is that all the blame for where we are is being put on truss and kwasi. Have they made things worse certainly they have and I have no liking for either.

    However where we are is the end point of 30 odd years of centrist social democratic style governement. It has left millions in this country unable to live despite working 40 hours a week without having to rely on governement handouts or food banks or both.

    Most of that time spent within the EU before anyone goes yeah but brexit. Centrist governments have failed a lot of people in this country while companies and their directors made out like bandits. The difference now is it is beginning to hit people on this board most of whom weren't in those bottom cohorts so now you are starting to cry and whine about it.

    Welcome to the poorhouse you deserve it.

    So you are blaming 30 years of "Centrist governments".

    Presumably you believe that 30 years of extremist governments would have been better?
    Not what I am saying at all nor am I blaming centrist governments. I said centrist social democratic governements....the ones that always expand the state and get it to do more and more instead of saying this is how much money we have what can we do properly that will do most good they want to do more stuff and spread the money ever more thinly so we do less and less well and then raise taxes to keep pace because the one thing you can guarantee with anything the state does is that every year it will need more than inflation rise in expenditure just to stand still.

    We need a reset, a conversation. What are absolute necessities for the state to do....how much tax does that cost. Then what are second priorities and what how much more can we raise from tax without driving millions into poverty and we decide which we will continue.

    Note there I am not ruling out tax rises. Just saying there is a limit to what we can raise in tax. Lets decide what to do with it then do it well in descending order of priority till we are spending only what we can raise. Sorry you find that contentious.
    Wanting to borrow to fund tax cuts for people who earn over £150,000 a year is 'social democracy' apparently...
    Where did I say that? Clue I didnt learn to read please. From Major to cameron we had 30 years of social democratic style governements both tory and labour. They laid the foundation for our current crisis and I already said I think truss and karteng made things worse still however the foundation was laid in the big state years
    from 1992 to 2016
    I actually think someone like Kemi might win an election at the end of the decade on a radical economic platform similar to what Liz and Kwasi are trying to do.

    At the moment it's completely the wrong time for such policies delivered ineptly by completely the wrong people but that may not always be the case.
This discussion has been closed.