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A 2023 Truss exit now a 58% chance in the betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 20 in General
imageA 2023 Truss exit now a 58% chance in the betting – politicalbetting.com

If the betting markets have got this right then Liz Truss is not likely to be fighting the next general election as Conservative leader and PM.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,771
    edited October 12
    Second, like the SNP if this CF continues
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,021
    Not 98% or is that in 2022? 👍
  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 337
    edited October 12
    Why should Liz Truss be worried about the blue wall opinion poll? She has a 51% majority over Labour, and the swing according to the poll would reduce that to a 9% majority.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    I see Rees-Mogg, the thinking man's fool, was deflecting blame on the current crisis by referring to the government's actions as a 'minor part of fiscal policy'.

    Has he told Truss or Kwarteng this, as I am sure they were telling us how the government's actions were vital, necessary and massively impactful in a positive way.

    There is much to be said for our very own Cultural Revolution in which Mogg and ilk are put to work in public lavatories and call centres.
    It's very heartwarming to know your opinion of those who work to keep our public lavatories clean, or in call centres. Along with Rochdale Pioneers oh so ironic use of 'darkies' earlier, it's just giving the most delightful impression of those of your political persuasion.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    5/1 for 2024 looked value when I thought it was 2024 or later. It isn't; 2025 or later is 13/2. wrong way round because if she makes 2024 she probably also makes 2025.

    but who knows: unstoppable force of her uselessness meets immovable object of lack of alternatives. Not betting.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    FPT:
    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    It is surely impossible for sentient Tory backbenchers either to precipitate an election, or to allow Truss to continue as leader, with polling like this ?

    The “give her a chance” line is just madness in this context,
    Part of me wants the idiot members to own this loss though. If the MPs remove her it will just give them an out "well she never got a chance so we don't know if she could have turned it around" and "the media destroyed her and Tory MPs betrayed her and us" etc...

    Let Liz take a gigantic L and force the members to realise just how out of touch they are with modern Britain.
    This is the same party membership that gave us Iain Duncan Smith over Ken Clarke twenty years ago. They haven't changed. They're not gonna change.

    I think you mean the same MPs who rejected Portillo, the obvious choice, who was a moderate eurosceptic, and made it a choice between Ken Clarke and IDS.
  • If she makes 2023 its a sure and certain sign that the Tories have a Death Wish.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,449
    So what now for rugby union?
    The 11 still standing have lost one-sixth of their home league fixtures.
    And it's early October.
  • Tory MP on Liz Truss's appearance at the 1922 Committee: 'It was like someone trying to light a fire using a magnifying glass. Using damp wood. In the dark.'

    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1580243991911870464
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863
    Russia climbs out of recession. Extraordimary

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/as-europe-falls-into-recession-russia-climbs-out

    Sanctions took about 3-4% off the economy, not the expected 8-10%

    Meanwhile Europe teeters near to outright collapse
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863
    Russia can afford to buy more kit. It just needs someone to buy it from. Could be crucial
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618
    dixiedean said:

    So what now for rugby union?
    The 11 still standing have lost one-sixth of their home league fixtures.
    And it's early October.

    Why is it in such a mess? Tigers always seem to get a decent crowd across the road from my place.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044
    FPT

    Andy_JS said:

    Just 16 days ago an opinion poll put the Labour lead at 4%. Kantar, 26th Sep: Lab 39%, Con 35%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Outlier.

    a person, thing, or fact that is very different from other people, things, or facts, so that it cannot be used to draw general conclusions:

    https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/outlier
    There was an Opinium poll around the same time with a 5% lead. The point I was making was how fast the government has lost support.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,380
    Leon said:

    Russia climbs out of recession. Extraordimary

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/as-europe-falls-into-recession-russia-climbs-out

    Sanctions took about 3-4% off the economy, not the expected 8-10%

    Meanwhile Europe teeters near to outright collapse

    I wouldn't believe the Russian growth figures. They're probably outright lies.
    Afterall, that's where the phrase 'tractor stats' does come from.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863

    Leon said:

    Russia climbs out of recession. Extraordimary

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/as-europe-falls-into-recession-russia-climbs-out

    Sanctions took about 3-4% off the economy, not the expected 8-10%

    Meanwhile Europe teeters near to outright collapse

    I wouldn't believe the Russian growth figures. They're probably outright lies.
    Afterall, that's where the phrase 'tractor stats' does come from.
    The Economist believes this. Coz this isn't Russian data, they are using more reliable indicators
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618
    Leon said:

    Russia climbs out of recession. Extraordimary

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/as-europe-falls-into-recession-russia-climbs-out

    Sanctions took about 3-4% off the economy, not the expected 8-10%

    Meanwhile Europe teeters near to outright collapse

    It just shows what an imperfect measure GDP is. Military spending and fossil fuel revenues do not make up for the loss of a million or more working age young men.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,364
    Leon said:

    Russia climbs out of recession. Extraordimary

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/as-europe-falls-into-recession-russia-climbs-out

    Sanctions took about 3-4% off the economy, not the expected 8-10%

    Meanwhile Europe teeters near to outright collapse

    Could we appoint Putin Governor of the Bank of England in return for peace in Ukraine?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863
    I know we're not meant to say this, and I am a "fucking appeaser", and after this I will kill myself in shame, but looking at the bald economic stats: Russia could win this war

    Because it is Europe which is bleeding out, not Russia. Despite everything
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,284

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    I see Rees-Mogg, the thinking man's fool, was deflecting blame on the current crisis by referring to the government's actions as a 'minor part of fiscal policy'.

    Has he told Truss or Kwarteng this, as I am sure they were telling us how the government's actions were vital, necessary and massively impactful in a positive way.

    There is much to be said for our very own Cultural Revolution in which Mogg and ilk are put to work in public lavatories and call centres.
    It's very heartwarming to know your opinion of those who work to keep our public lavatories clean, or in call centres...
    Is that an opinion of them, or is it (rather more likely) about the unappealing nature of the jobs they are obliged to do ?
    You're trying too hard.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,449
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    So what now for rugby union?
    The 11 still standing have lost one-sixth of their home league fixtures.
    And it's early October.

    Why is it in such a mess? Tigers always seem to get a decent crowd across the road from my place.
    Player wages.
    Squad sizes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    Leon said:

    I know we're not meant to say this, and I am a "fucking appeaser", and after this I will kill myself in shame, but looking at the bald economic stats: Russia could win this war

    Because it is Europe which is bleeding out, not Russia. Despite everything

    More than anywhere, by a long way, the bleeding is happening in Ukraine.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    So what now for rugby union?
    The 11 still standing have lost one-sixth of their home league fixtures.
    And it's early October.

    Why is it in such a mess? Tigers always seem to get a decent crowd across the road from my place.
    Player wages.
    Squad sizes.
    Same would be true of most football teams including my own without generous owners and ludicrous TV payments.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Leon said:

    Russia climbs out of recession. Extraordimary

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/as-europe-falls-into-recession-russia-climbs-out

    Sanctions took about 3-4% off the economy, not the expected 8-10%

    Meanwhile Europe teeters near to outright collapse

    I wouldn't believe the Russian growth figures. They're probably outright lies.
    Afterall, that's where the phrase 'tractor stats' does come from.
    It is not an unproblematic expression

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1250576/farm-machinery-production-us-ussr-cold-war/

    "In 1970, the Soviet Union produced more than three times the number of tractors and combines that were sold in the U.S."

    and when they switched from tractors to T-34s in 1940 they made a fuck of a lot of non-imaginary T-34s.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600

    Anyway, in other news, my wife and i have been safely delivered of a son: 7lb 13oz. Very pleased to now have one of each, son and daughter.

    She was safely discharged from hospital this afternoon. Both mum and baby tired but doing well and pleased to be back home.

    Many congratulations!
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819

    FPT:

    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    It is surely impossible for sentient Tory backbenchers either to precipitate an election, or to allow Truss to continue as leader, with polling like this ?

    The “give her a chance” line is just madness in this context,
    Part of me wants the idiot members to own this loss though. If the MPs remove her it will just give them an out "well she never got a chance so we don't know if she could have turned it around" and "the media destroyed her and Tory MPs betrayed her and us" etc...

    Let Liz take a gigantic L and force the members to realise just how out of touch they are with modern Britain.
    This is the same party membership that gave us Iain Duncan Smith over Ken Clarke twenty years ago. They haven't changed. They're not gonna change.

    I think you mean the same MPs who rejected Portillo, the obvious choice, who was a moderate eurosceptic, and made it a choice between Ken Clarke and IDS.
    In all these examples the issue is the same one.

    The Tory party membership is generally insane and shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near any say on the party leadership…
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,021

    Anyway, in other news, my wife and i have been safely delivered of a son: 7lb 13oz. Very pleased to now have one of each, son and daughter.

    She was safely discharged from hospital this afternoon. Both mum and baby tired but doing well and pleased to be back home.

    Congratulations! Best wishes to you all 👍
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,581
    edited October 12

    Anyway, in other news, my wife and i have been safely delivered of a son: 7lb 13oz. Very pleased to now have one of each, son and daughter.

    She was safely discharged from hospital this afternoon. Both mum and baby tired but doing well and pleased to be back home.

    Congratulations on siring issue.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912

    Anyway, in other news, my wife and i have been safely delivered of a son: 7lb 13oz. Very pleased to now have one of each, son and daughter.

    She was safely discharged from hospital this afternoon. Both mum and baby tired but doing well and pleased to be back home.

    Woo, congratulations Sir. :D Glad that mother and baby are both well.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,441

    Anyway, in other news, my wife and i have been safely delivered of a son: 7lb 13oz. Very pleased to now have one of each, son and daughter.

    She was safely discharged from hospital this afternoon. Both mum and baby tired but doing well and pleased to be back home.

    Congratulations! Finally some good news on PB!
  • Anyway, in other news, my wife and i have been safely delivered of a son: 7lb 13oz. Very pleased to now have one of each, son and daughter.

    She was safely discharged from hospital this afternoon. Both mum and baby tired but doing well and pleased to be back home.

    CONGRATULATIONS!!!!!!!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Russia climbs out of recession. Extraordimary

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/as-europe-falls-into-recession-russia-climbs-out

    Sanctions took about 3-4% off the economy, not the expected 8-10%

    Meanwhile Europe teeters near to outright collapse

    It just shows what an imperfect measure GDP is. Military spending and fossil fuel revenues do not make up for the loss of a million or more working age young men.
    GDP doesn't count: friendship, going for walks in the sunshine, conversation in the street, child care by parents and family, including bedtime stories, birdsong, growing cabbages in allotments, picking brambles, kindness, voluntary contributions to PB, lots of voluntary work, having a life partner, playing table tennis or chess for fun, Shakespeare, Beethoven.

    Misses everything really.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Russia climbs out of recession. Extraordimary

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/as-europe-falls-into-recession-russia-climbs-out

    Sanctions took about 3-4% off the economy, not the expected 8-10%

    Meanwhile Europe teeters near to outright collapse

    I wouldn't believe the Russian growth figures. They're probably outright lies.
    Afterall, that's where the phrase 'tractor stats' does come from.
    It is not an unproblematic expression

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1250576/farm-machinery-production-us-ussr-cold-war/

    "In 1970, the Soviet Union produced more than three times the number of tractors and combines that were sold in the U.S."

    and when they switched from tractors to T-34s in 1940 they made a fuck of a lot of non-imaginary T-34s.
    Nine months ago, there were 13,000 tanks in Russia - until people started actually looking for them, then they realised the actual number was more like 3,000.

    And the Ukranians have destroyed or captured 2,000 of them, in those nine months.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863

    Anyway, in other news, my wife and i have been safely delivered of a son: 7lb 13oz. Very pleased to now have one of each, son and daughter.

    She was safely discharged from hospital this afternoon. Both mum and baby tired but doing well and pleased to be back home.

    🥂🥂🥂🥂🥂🥂🥂🥂!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Russia climbs out of recession. Extraordimary

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/as-europe-falls-into-recession-russia-climbs-out

    Sanctions took about 3-4% off the economy, not the expected 8-10%

    Meanwhile Europe teeters near to outright collapse

    It just shows what an imperfect measure GDP is. Military spending and fossil fuel revenues do not make up for the loss of a million or more working age young men.
    GDP doesn't count: friendship, going for walks in the sunshine, conversation in the street, child care by parents and family, including bedtime stories, birdsong, growing cabbages in allotments, picking brambles, kindness, voluntary contributions to PB, lots of voluntary work, having a life partner, playing table tennis or chess for fun, Shakespeare, Beethoven.

    Misses everything really.
    And GDP does count things like railway season tickets, Pret lunches and Starbucks coffees, the absence of which during the pandemic made people noticeably better off in time and money.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    eek said:

    FPT:

    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    It is surely impossible for sentient Tory backbenchers either to precipitate an election, or to allow Truss to continue as leader, with polling like this ?

    The “give her a chance” line is just madness in this context,
    Part of me wants the idiot members to own this loss though. If the MPs remove her it will just give them an out "well she never got a chance so we don't know if she could have turned it around" and "the media destroyed her and Tory MPs betrayed her and us" etc...

    Let Liz take a gigantic L and force the members to realise just how out of touch they are with modern Britain.
    This is the same party membership that gave us Iain Duncan Smith over Ken Clarke twenty years ago. They haven't changed. They're not gonna change.

    I think you mean the same MPs who rejected Portillo, the obvious choice, who was a moderate eurosceptic, and made it a choice between Ken Clarke and IDS.
    In all these examples the issue is the same one.

    The Tory party membership is generally insane and shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near any say on the party leadership…
    I disagree; it's the MPs who have shown themselves to be an inadequate electorate. The MP stage is characterised by job seeking, back-stabbing, and dirty tricks, and gaming the system to present the members with (attempted) faits (?) accompli. Perhaps it would be better if the MPs passed 3 on to the members.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Andy_JS said:

    Just 16 days ago an opinion poll put the Labour lead at 4%. Kantar, 26th Sep: Lab 39%, Con 35%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Outlier.

    a person, thing, or fact that is very different from other people, things, or facts, so that it cannot be used to draw general conclusions:

    https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/outlier
    There was an Opinium poll around the same time with a 5% lead. The point I was making was how fast the government has lost support.
    Keirplunk
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    Labour leads by 13% in the Blue Wall.

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (7-8 October):

    Labour 41% (+20)
    Conservative 28% (-22)
    Liberal Democrat 24% (-3)
    Green 4% (+3)
    Reform UK 3% (New)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 2019 General Election




    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1580226802617753600

    It’s nice to have the variety of a blue wall tracker isn’t it? 🙂

    The main take out is a huge anti Tory vote out there - but it still needs to coalesce around a candidate, and could still unwind before the election.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    Leon said:

    I know we're not meant to say this, and I am a "fucking appeaser", and after this I will kill myself in shame, but looking at the bald economic stats: Russia could win this war

    Because it is Europe which is bleeding out, not Russia. Despite everything

    Presumably this is because the price of raw materials, energy etc, which Russia exports, has gone up?

    It was inevitable that Europe was going to suffer when this war started. But just as things start to get bad for Europeans, Russia keeps doing things that remind them to continue supporting the war, like bombing childrens playgrounds. And then they make territorial claims based on sham referendums that irritate its 'allies' who cannot support such acts because of the precedents it would set for their own territorial problems and disputes. So it keeps going with these bizarre own goals by the master strategist Putin.

    I don't really see how Russia wins the war because it can't easily fix the problems with its military, even if it pumps unlimited amounts of money in to it, it cannot really change anything. Russia doesn't have the motivation to win and Ukraine does.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044
    I wonder if the Blue Wall poll takes tactical voting into account in Con/LD marginals.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,591
    Mazel tov @Casino_Royale
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Anyway, in other news, my wife and i have been safely delivered of a son: 7lb 13oz. Very pleased to now have one of each, son and daughter.

    She was safely discharged from hospital this afternoon. Both mum and baby tired but doing well and pleased to be back home.

    Marvellous news, Sir. :+1:

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204

    Anyway, in other news, my wife and i have been safely delivered of a son: 7lb 13oz. Very pleased to now have one of each, son and daughter.

    She was safely discharged from hospital this afternoon. Both mum and baby tired but doing well and pleased to be back home.

    Congratulations!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Ian Dunt:

    "Even in her worst nightmares, Liz Truss could never have dreamed it would be this bad
    The Government is frozen rigid in terror, unable to move as it stares vacantly at incoming traffic

    Everywhere you look, it’s unravelling. Liz Truss is presiding over a full-spectrum, system-wide, multifaceted political breakdown. It’s a complete disintegration of function and will – and it is taking place faster than anyone thought possible. In every aspect and at every level, the Government is falling apart.

    After just a few weeks, her incompetence has reduced the Bank of England to functional incoherence. It is losing any sense of institutional identity in the face of the chaos she has created.

    ...

    Even in her worst nightmares, Truss could never have dreamed it would be this bad. We’ve never seen political failure on this scale or at this velocity. It would be fascinating, if only it were happening somewhere else."

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/liz-truss-worst-nightmares-never-dreamed-this-bad-1907392
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,734
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I know we're not meant to say this, and I am a "fucking appeaser", and after this I will kill myself in shame, but looking at the bald economic stats: Russia could win this war

    Because it is Europe which is bleeding out, not Russia. Despite everything

    Presumably this is because the price of raw materials, energy etc, which Russia exports, has gone up?

    It was inevitable that Europe was going to suffer when this war started. But just as things start to get bad for Europeans, Russia keeps doing things that remind them to continue supporting the war, like bombing childrens playgrounds. And then they make territorial claims based on sham referendums that irritate its 'allies' who cannot support such acts because of the precedents it would set for their own territorial problems and disputes. So it keeps going with these bizarre own goals by the master strategist Putin.

    I don't really see how Russia wins the war because it can't easily fix the problems with its military, even if it pumps unlimited amounts of money in to it, it cannot really change anything. Russia doesn't have the motivation to win and Ukraine does.

    Let @Leon cling to the hope his hero Putin can win.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 592
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I know we're not meant to say this, and I am a "fucking appeaser", and after this I will kill myself in shame, but looking at the bald economic stats: Russia could win this war

    Because it is Europe which is bleeding out, not Russia. Despite everything

    Presumably this is because the price of raw materials, energy etc, which Russia exports, has gone up?

    It was inevitable that Europe was going to suffer when this war started. But just as things start to get bad for Europeans, Russia keeps doing things that remind them to continue supporting the war, like bombing childrens playgrounds. And then they make territorial claims based on sham referendums that irritate its 'allies' who cannot support such acts because of the precedents it would set for their own territorial problems and disputes. So it keeps going with these bizarre own goals by the master strategist Putin.

    I don't really see how Russia wins the war because it can't easily fix the problems with its military, even if it pumps unlimited amounts of money in to it, it cannot really change anything. Russia doesn't have the motivation to win and Ukraine does.

    The idea that Russia is only 3-4% down on pre-invasion GDP is clearly bunkum. They have had hundreds of thousands of young professionals leave the country, disproportionately from skilled, productive trades. In addition, we know there are shortages in a lot of manufacturing plants, slowing production. It's just clearly nonsense numbers.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    Not 98% or is that in 2022? 👍

    Spot on. 2023 is a long way away for Truss, there has to be some betting on 2022.

    More seriously, how exactly will they get rid of her? The current rules prohibit for a year. There no obvious unity, saviour over the water candidate. But there are the likes of Braverman, Boris, waiting for an opportunity knowing membership will favour them. Sunak preferred by voters of other parties, would be contentious and split the Tory party. And whilst Truss and Kwarteng are diabolical communicators, if it’s the economic approach and ideological message that has sunk Tory’s in the polls, what platform and themes do they want to fight election on?

    Why isn’t 2025 on the chart 🙂
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Jessica Elgot
    @jessicaelgot
    ·
    18m
    Robert Halfon, who chairs the education select committee, told Truss she had "trashed the last 10 years" of the Conservative economic record, according to one colleague.
  • One Tory MP describes Truss' appearance at the 1922 committee as "funereal." Another, asked if she had done more to reassure colleagues, replies "absolutely not."

    Robert Halfon, who chairs the education select committee, told Truss she had "trashed the last 10 years" of the Conservative economic record, according to one colleague.


    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1580249454179127298

    I am Robert Halfon.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    IshmaelZ said:

    Ian Dunt:

    "Even in her worst nightmares, Liz Truss could never have dreamed it would be this bad
    The Government is frozen rigid in terror, unable to move as it stares vacantly at incoming traffic

    Everywhere you look, it’s unravelling. Liz Truss is presiding over a full-spectrum, system-wide, multifaceted political breakdown. It’s a complete disintegration of function and will – and it is taking place faster than anyone thought possible. In every aspect and at every level, the Government is falling apart.

    After just a few weeks, her incompetence has reduced the Bank of England to functional incoherence. It is losing any sense of institutional identity in the face of the chaos she has created.

    ...

    Even in her worst nightmares, Truss could never have dreamed it would be this bad. We’ve never seen political failure on this scale or at this velocity. It would be fascinating, if only it were happening somewhere else."

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/liz-truss-worst-nightmares-never-dreamed-this-bad-1907392

    So the Bank of England is being incompetent, and this incompetence is the fault of Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, by osmosis. Great, sure, got it, thanks Ian Twunt.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Not 98% or is that in 2022? 👍

    Spot on. 2023 is a long way away for Truss, there has to be some betting on 2022.

    More seriously, how exactly will they get rid of her? The current rules prohibit for a year. There no obvious unity, saviour over the water candidate. But there are the likes of Braverman, Boris, waiting for an opportunity knowing membership will favour them. Sunak preferred by voters of other parties, would be contentious and split the Tory party. And whilst Truss and Kwarteng are diabolical communicators, if it’s the economic approach and ideological message that has sunk Tory’s in the polls, what platform and themes do they want to fight election on?

    Why isn’t 2025 on the chart 🙂
    Copy of me downthread

    5/1 for 2024 looked value when I thought it was 2024 or later. It isn't; 2025 or later is 13/2. wrong way round because if she makes 2024 she probably also makes 2025.

    but who knows: unstoppable force of her uselessness meets immovable object of lack of alternatives. Not betting.

    https://smarkets.com/event/42891914/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/2025/01/01/00-00/liz-truss-exit-date
  • I am shocked by this, shocked to the core.

    Brooklyn Center man who claimed vandals spray painted "Biden 2020" on his garage and torched his camper due to a Trump 2020 flag has pleaded guilty to fraud for faking the incident.

    Thirty-year-old Denis Molla was charged in the case after the fire in September 2020, in which prosecutors say he falsely reported to police that three men lit his camper on fire and vandalized his garage with graffiti supporting President Biden, Black Lives Matter, and Antifa. Molla also claimed the vandals targeted his camper because of a "Trump 2020" flag he had on it.

    Authorities say Molla submitted multiple insurance claims for the damage to his camper, garage, and vehicles. Prosecutors say he collected $61,000 in insurance claims and more than $17,000 from a GoFundMe.

    Molla pleaded guilty to one count of wire fraud in the hoax. He will be sentenced at a later date for the crime.


    https://www.fox9.com/news/man-who-claimed-vandals-targeted-him-for-trump-flag-pleads-guilty-to-fraud
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,233

    Anyway, in other news, my wife and i have been safely delivered of a son: 7lb 13oz. Very pleased to now have one of each, son and daughter.

    She was safely discharged from hospital this afternoon. Both mum and baby tired but doing well and pleased to be back home.

    Anyway, in other news, my wife and i have been safely delivered of a son: 7lb 13oz. Very pleased to now have one of each, son and daughter.

    She was safely discharged from hospital this afternoon. Both mum and baby tired but doing well and pleased to be back home.

    Congrats to you all.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,643

    Not 98% or is that in 2022? 👍

    Spot on. 2023 is a long way away for Truss, there has to be some betting on 2022.

    More seriously, how exactly will they get rid of her? The current rules prohibit for a year. There no obvious unity, saviour over the water candidate. But there are the likes of Braverman, Boris, waiting for an opportunity knowing membership will favour them. Sunak preferred by voters of other parties, would be contentious and split the Tory party. And whilst Truss and Kwarteng are diabolical communicators, if it’s the economic approach and ideological message that has sunk Tory’s in the polls, what platform and themes do they want to fight election on?

    Why isn’t 2025 on the chart 🙂
    Well, a 2025 election would require campaigning over Christmas 2024/New Year 2025. Possible, but not likely :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,734

    IshmaelZ said:

    Ian Dunt:

    "Even in her worst nightmares, Liz Truss could never have dreamed it would be this bad
    The Government is frozen rigid in terror, unable to move as it stares vacantly at incoming traffic

    Everywhere you look, it’s unravelling. Liz Truss is presiding over a full-spectrum, system-wide, multifaceted political breakdown. It’s a complete disintegration of function and will – and it is taking place faster than anyone thought possible. In every aspect and at every level, the Government is falling apart.

    After just a few weeks, her incompetence has reduced the Bank of England to functional incoherence. It is losing any sense of institutional identity in the face of the chaos she has created.

    ...

    Even in her worst nightmares, Truss could never have dreamed it would be this bad. We’ve never seen political failure on this scale or at this velocity. It would be fascinating, if only it were happening somewhere else."

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/liz-truss-worst-nightmares-never-dreamed-this-bad-1907392

    So the Bank of England is being incompetent, and this incompetence is the fault of Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, by osmosis. Great, sure, got it, thanks Ian Twunt.
    You are making it fit your preconceptions. Truss can do no wrong, thus it must be someone else's fault.

    Why do you think you are in a tiny minority? Could it perhaps be that the rest of the world is right and you are wrong?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,148
    There was a discussion on the site yesterday regards a Scottish referendum, I believe in relation to the Supreme Court case as to whether such a vote would be legal. I have to say I am very puzzled by a lot of the arguments going around about this.

    Firstly the Brexit precedent. The argument goes that it is now constitutional to have a referendum with a 50+1 majority needed for change. There are several flaws with this. The first of which being the obvious point that the UK is an internationally recognised sovereign state and has been for centuries. Scotland is not. So why would the Brexit vote matter? Secondly the Brexit vote was not legally binding anyway. The pledges made by David Cameron and others to respect the result were a matter of taking him at his word. In reality this meant that MPs felt they had little choice but to vote for withdrawal. But that was based on the political consequences of them not doing so. At no point was it seriously suggested that those MPs obstructing Brexit should be prosecuted and sent to prison.

    I don't know what the Supreme Court will do. To me they seem to move in mysterious ways, though maybe that's just because I am not a legal expert. Modern physics can feel rather odd too. I would find it extraordinary if the Supreme Court believed a Scottish referendum could be legally binding but what exactly would be the opposition to an advisory vote? After all what is it but a glorified and very expensive opinion poll? Should the Scottish government not be allowed to hold such a vote? Sturgeon could claim that she would respect the result whichever way it went but since the UK government wouldn't be recognising the legalilty of the vote it wouldn't be worth a can of beans.

    Some people might think my dismissal of Scottish sovereignty is rather cold and unfair. With respect I would question how much they have actually thought through the repercussions of a new vote. There was a referendum 8 years ago on independence that provided a solid if not overwhelming majority for the status quo, that being a sovereign UK. So a determination that it is up to Scots to choose whether they remain in the UK means what? Presumably a 50+1 referendum vote. Such a vote would likely produce several areas or regions with a majority for remaining in the UK. Should these regions be allowed to stay in the UK? Would they have any right of secession from an independent Scotland? My guess is that would not go down well with the SNP. So the position would appear to be that a simple majority in a referendum not authorised by Westminster would be satisfactory and there are no rules as to how often or how many referendum you can hold. There is no indication that any regions of Scotland would have the right to secede at any point either.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,148
    part 2

    When one considers the current economic headwinds, Scotland's less than healthy fiscal position and the clear division on the issue, a new referendum right now strikes me as complete madness. The Nats claim to have the youth vote on their side. Their support has steadily risen over 30 years. So why the impatience? I can't help but feel that many of the useful idiots in England who are sympathetic to a new vote are just indulging their reflex anti Tory beliefs. Have they thought about the Scots?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Ian Dunt:

    "Even in her worst nightmares, Liz Truss could never have dreamed it would be this bad
    The Government is frozen rigid in terror, unable to move as it stares vacantly at incoming traffic

    Everywhere you look, it’s unravelling. Liz Truss is presiding over a full-spectrum, system-wide, multifaceted political breakdown. It’s a complete disintegration of function and will – and it is taking place faster than anyone thought possible. In every aspect and at every level, the Government is falling apart.

    After just a few weeks, her incompetence has reduced the Bank of England to functional incoherence. It is losing any sense of institutional identity in the face of the chaos she has created.

    ...

    Even in her worst nightmares, Truss could never have dreamed it would be this bad. We’ve never seen political failure on this scale or at this velocity. It would be fascinating, if only it were happening somewhere else."

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/liz-truss-worst-nightmares-never-dreamed-this-bad-1907392

    So the Bank of England is being incompetent, and this incompetence is the fault of Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, by osmosis. Great, sure, got it, thanks Ian Twunt.
    You're a funny guy Lucky, I like you. That's why I'm going to kill you last.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    Investment Zones not getting a good reception.

    https://news.oxfordshire.gov.uk/investment-zones/

    Oxfordshire County Council has written to government minsters to explain why it has decided the county should not bid to be involved in Whitehall’s investment zones initiative, which involves creating targeted areas where planning regulations would be relaxed in an attempt to drive growth.

    Councillor Liz Leffman, Leader of Oxfordshire County Council, has written a formal letter to Simon Clark, Secretary of State for Levelling Up, to explain why it was thought this was not the right move for Oxfordshire.

    She said: “We have thanked the government for inviting Oxfordshire to bid for investment zone status. We have decided not to progress this opportunity. Oxfordshire continues to support many very exciting business developments, particularly in the areas of science and technology, so in writing a letter to government I wanted to explain the logic behind why we feel that applying for an investment zone does not fit with our ambitions....

    “We consider that the de-regularisation of planning controls and reductions in environmental protection, which appear to be a condition of any investment zone, are incompatible with our net zero carbon aspirations and our commitment to protect and enhance biodiversity and environmental quality, as stated in our vision.


  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,021

    Not 98% or is that in 2022? 👍

    Spot on. 2023 is a long way away for Truss, there has to be some betting on 2022.

    More seriously, how exactly will they get rid of her? The current rules prohibit for a year. There no obvious unity, saviour over the water candidate. But there are the likes of Braverman, Boris, waiting for an opportunity knowing membership will favour them. Sunak preferred by voters of other parties, would be contentious and split the Tory party. And whilst Truss and Kwarteng are diabolical communicators, if it’s the economic approach and ideological message that has sunk Tory’s in the polls, what platform and themes do they want to fight election on?

    Why isn’t 2025 on the chart 🙂
    Maybe CON might have been taken over by LD by 2025?!
  • WillG said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I know we're not meant to say this, and I am a "fucking appeaser", and after this I will kill myself in shame, but looking at the bald economic stats: Russia could win this war

    Because it is Europe which is bleeding out, not Russia. Despite everything

    Presumably this is because the price of raw materials, energy etc, which Russia exports, has gone up?

    It was inevitable that Europe was going to suffer when this war started. But just as things start to get bad for Europeans, Russia keeps doing things that remind them to continue supporting the war, like bombing childrens playgrounds. And then they make territorial claims based on sham referendums that irritate its 'allies' who cannot support such acts because of the precedents it would set for their own territorial problems and disputes. So it keeps going with these bizarre own goals by the master strategist Putin.

    I don't really see how Russia wins the
    war because it can't easily fix the problems with its military, even if it pumps unlimited amounts of money in to it, it cannot really change anything. Russia doesn't have the motivation to win and Ukraine does.

    The idea that Russia is only 3-4% down on pre-invasion GDP is clearly bunkum. They have had hundreds of thousands of young professionals leave the country, disproportionately from skilled, productive trades. In addition, we know there are shortages in a lot of manufacturing plants, slowing production. It's just clearly
    nonsense numbers.
    Yes, clearly down to energy fluctuations and / or the price of oil. A more meaningful measure would be GDP ex-energy production, which The Economist didn't comment on, which is bizarre.

    Also look at this in terms of the $ - Russia is a commodity producer and commodities are priced in dollars. Which raises the question of what their GDP numbers will be like when commodities fall.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863
    Soho absolutely rammed. Frieze? End lf the world?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    darkage said:

    Investment Zones not getting a good reception.

    https://news.oxfordshire.gov.uk/investment-zones/

    Oxfordshire County Council has written to government minsters to explain why it has decided the county should not bid to be involved in Whitehall’s investment zones initiative, which involves creating targeted areas where planning regulations would be relaxed in an attempt to drive growth.

    Councillor Liz Leffman, Leader of Oxfordshire County Council, has written a formal letter to Simon Clark, Secretary of State for Levelling Up, to explain why it was thought this was not the right move for Oxfordshire.

    She said: “We have thanked the government for inviting Oxfordshire to bid for investment zone status. We have decided not to progress this opportunity. Oxfordshire continues to support many very exciting business developments, particularly in the areas of science and technology, so in writing a letter to government I wanted to explain the logic behind why we feel that applying for an investment zone does not fit with our ambitions....

    “We consider that the de-regularisation of planning controls and reductions in environmental protection, which appear to be a condition of any investment zone, are incompatible with our net zero carbon aspirations and our commitment to protect and enhance biodiversity and environmental quality, as stated in our vision.


    Party: Liberal Democrat Green Alliance (Liberal Democrat Member), it seems relevant to add.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465
    Leon said:

    I know we're not meant to say this, and I am a "fucking appeaser", and after this I will kill myself in shame, but looking at the bald economic stats: Russia could win this war

    Because it is Europe which is bleeding out, not Russia. Despite everything

    Economics are important but are not everything. In this age Russia cannot lose so many men and materials and still pursue its aims.

    Plus, it's about the US - so long as they supply Ukraine, Ukraine can win.
  • darkage said:

    Investment Zones not getting a good reception.

    https://news.oxfordshire.gov.uk/investment-zones/

    Oxfordshire County Council has written to government minsters to explain why it has decided the county should not bid to be involved in Whitehall’s investment zones initiative, which involves creating targeted areas where planning regulations would be relaxed in an attempt to drive growth.

    Councillor Liz Leffman, Leader of Oxfordshire County Council, has written a formal letter to Simon Clark, Secretary of State for Levelling Up, to explain why it was thought this was not the right move for Oxfordshire.

    She said: “We have thanked the government for inviting Oxfordshire to bid for investment zone status. We have decided not to progress this opportunity. Oxfordshire continues to support many very exciting business developments, particularly in the areas of science and
    technology, so in writing a letter to government
    I wanted to explain the logic behind why we feel that applying for an investment zone does not fit with our ambitions....

    “We consider that the de-regularisation of planning controls and reductions in environmental protection, which appear to be a condition of any investment zone, are incompatible with our net zero carbon aspirations and our commitment to protect and enhance biodiversity and environmental quality, as stated in our vision.


    i think you have to be careful of extrapolating Oxfordshire to the entire country. It's a county where the council changes have been disproportionately - not in a bad way - swayed by local concerns over overbuilding on rural land. It's not surprising the local council has said this. Others may be different.

  • Leon said:

    Soho absolutely rammed. Frieze? End lf the world?

    Gay sex?

  • Taz said:

    Anyway, in other news, my wife and i have been safely delivered of a son: 7lb 13oz. Very pleased to now have one of each, son and daughter.

    She was safely discharged from hospital this afternoon. Both mum and baby tired but doing well and pleased to be back home.

    Anyway, in other news, my wife and i have been safely delivered of a son: 7lb 13oz. Very pleased to now have one of each, son and daughter.


    She was safely discharged from hospital this afternoon. Both mum and baby tired but doing well and pleased to be back home.

    Congrats to you all.
    Indeed congrats to the Casino family

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,441
    Leon said:

    Soho absolutely rammed. Frieze? End lf the world?

    Found the same in Edinburgh a couple of weeks ago. This really doesn't feel like a recession in the capitals....
  • Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Soho absolutely rammed. Frieze? End lf the world?

    Found the same in Edinburgh a couple of weeks ago. This really doesn't feel like a recession in the capitals....
    Anecdote alert.

    Quite a few friends are using some of their WFH/pandemic enforced savings they've built up since March 2020.
  • Leading on from @rcs1000 comments re PA FPT, I really don't see how Fetterman wins from here, despite the argument that Shapiro will run away with the Governor's race. Fetterman is clearly still not well. Add to that his crime issue and also that ticket splitting seems to be back on the rise, I don't see him winning.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    Leon said:

    Soho absolutely rammed. Frieze? End lf the world?

    Gay sex?

    Now? You certainly pick your moments - dinner will be ready in fifteen minutes.

    Strapons are the new norm, Mail tells its readers

    Warning: i know lot of you are old and fragile, I can’t be held responsible for any petite bodies you see in this article.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-11297521/Bisexual-Miss-Universe-Australia-Maria-Thattil-says-strap-ons-new-norm.html?dicbo=v2-bcc627c18f9f3ddc8d42a1e0c4ddc85d&ico=outbrain_footer
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    WillG said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I know we're not meant to say this, and I am a "fucking appeaser", and after this I will kill myself in shame, but looking at the bald economic stats: Russia could win this war

    Because it is Europe which is bleeding out, not Russia. Despite everything

    Presumably this is because the price of raw materials, energy etc, which Russia exports, has gone up?

    It was inevitable that Europe was going to suffer when this war started. But just as things start to get bad for Europeans, Russia keeps doing things that remind them to continue supporting the war, like bombing childrens playgrounds. And then they make territorial claims based on sham referendums that irritate its 'allies' who cannot support such acts because of the precedents it would set for their own territorial problems and disputes. So it keeps going with these bizarre own goals by the master strategist Putin.

    I don't really see how Russia wins the
    war because it can't easily fix the problems with its military, even if it pumps unlimited amounts of money in to it, it cannot really change anything. Russia doesn't have the motivation to win and Ukraine does.

    The idea that Russia is only 3-4% down on pre-invasion GDP is clearly bunkum. They have had hundreds of thousands of young professionals leave the country, disproportionately from skilled, productive trades. In addition, we know there are shortages in a lot of manufacturing plants, slowing production. It's just clearly
    nonsense numbers.
    Yes, clearly down to energy fluctuations and / or the price of oil. A more meaningful measure would be GDP ex-energy production, which The Economist didn't comment on, which is bizarre.

    Also look at this in terms of the $ - Russia is a commodity producer and commodities are priced in dollars. Which raises the question of what their GDP numbers will be like when commodities fall.

    That is an absolutely shit argument. It's like saying those of working age in this country must be much better off than the elderly because look how much younger and harder working they are. Earned and unearned money are exactly equally valuable dollar for dollar.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,643

    Leon said:

    Soho absolutely rammed. Frieze? End lf the world?

    Gay sex?

    No, it's just the way I walk :lol:
  • There was a discussion on the site yesterday regards a Scottish referendum, I believe in relation to the Supreme Court case as to whether such a vote would be legal. I have to say I am very puzzled by a lot of the arguments going around about this.

    Firstly the Brexit precedent. The argument goes that it is now constitutional to have a referendum with a 50+1 majority needed for change. There are several flaws with this. The first of which being the obvious point that the UK is an internationally recognised sovereign state and has been for centuries. Scotland is not. So why would the Brexit vote matter? Secondly the Brexit vote was not legally binding anyway. The pledges made by David Cameron and others to respect the result were a matter of taking him at his word. In reality this meant that MPs felt they had little choice but to vote for withdrawal. But that was based on the political consequences of them not doing so. At no point was it seriously suggested that those MPs obstructing Brexit should be prosecuted and sent to prison.

    I don't know what the Supreme Court will do. To me they seem to move in mysterious ways, though maybe that's just because I am not a legal expert. Modern physics can feel rather odd too. I would find it extraordinary if the Supreme Court believed a Scottish referendum could be legally binding but what exactly would be the opposition to an advisory vote? After all what is it but a glorified and very expensive opinion poll? Should the Scottish government not be allowed to hold such a vote? Sturgeon could claim that she would respect the result whichever way it went but since the UK government wouldn't be recognising the legalilty of the vote it wouldn't be worth a can of beans.

    Some people might think my dismissal of Scottish sovereignty is rather cold and unfair. With respect I would question how much they have actually thought through the repercussions of a new vote. There was a referendum 8 years ago on independence that provided a solid if not overwhelming majority for the status quo, that being a sovereign UK. So a determination that it is up to Scots to choose whether they remain in the UK means what? Presumably a 50+1 referendum vote. Such a vote would likely produce several areas or regions with a majority for remaining in the UK. Should these regions be allowed to stay in the UK? Would they have any right of secession from an independent Scotland? My guess is that would not go down well with the SNP. So the position would appear to be that a simple majority in a referendum not authorised by Westminster would be satisfactory and there are no rules as to how often or how many referendum you can hold. There is no indication that any regions of Scotland would have the right to secede at any point either.

    I was one of the people saying this and citing the Brexit vote. As you say, the brexit referendum legally was advisory. But politically it was binding. AIUI the Scottish government's case to the SC is that their proposed referendum is also advisory, so does not tread on the toes of the reserved power held by Westminster.

    The mess created by the Brexit referendum is that legally advisory polls are now treated as politically binding. If Scotland votes to leave - and I believe we will this time simply because ScotCons will try and boycott it - it becomes politically very difficult to set the result aside. "Its only advisory" - and yet the Brexit vote bound the hands of successive parliaments despite also only being advisory.

    The best result will be for the SC to rule against the Scottish government. But as they are asking for an advisory referendum which does not challenge the reserved powers held by Westminster, on what grounds would they say no? The SNP win either way. Sadly.
  • So one to ponder for the PB.com crowd.

    We saw in Brazil that Bolsinaro defied poll expectations in the first round and is climbing in the polls. Could be numerous factors but one that would fit the facts is Bolsinaro shy voters feeling more confident post his first round performance to come out and say they support him.

    Do we still believe there is no 'shy GOP / Trump' factor in the US polls?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922
    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Soho absolutely rammed. Frieze? End lf the world?

    Found the same in Edinburgh a couple of weeks ago. This really doesn't feel like a recession in the capitals....
    Some of you have odd memories of recessions past. Social life does not stop.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204

    darkage said:

    Investment Zones not getting a good reception.

    https://news.oxfordshire.gov.uk/investment-zones/

    Oxfordshire County Council has written to government minsters to explain why it has decided the county should not bid to be involved in Whitehall’s investment zones initiative, which involves creating targeted areas where planning regulations would be relaxed in an attempt to drive growth.

    Councillor Liz Leffman, Leader of Oxfordshire County Council, has written a formal letter to Simon Clark, Secretary of State for Levelling Up, to explain why it was thought this was not the right move for Oxfordshire.

    She said: “We have thanked the government for inviting Oxfordshire to bid for investment zone status. We have decided not to progress this opportunity. Oxfordshire continues to support many very exciting business developments, particularly in the areas of science and
    technology, so in writing a letter to government
    I wanted to explain the logic behind why we feel that applying for an investment zone does not fit with our ambitions....

    “We consider that the de-regularisation of planning controls and reductions in environmental protection, which appear to be a condition of any investment zone, are incompatible with our net zero carbon aspirations and our commitment to protect and enhance biodiversity and environmental quality, as stated in our vision.


    i think you have to be careful of extrapolating Oxfordshire to the entire country. It's a county where the council changes have been disproportionately - not in a bad way - swayed by local concerns over overbuilding on rural land. It's not surprising the local council has said this. Others may be different.

    Yes of course. But the weird thing, which I cannot understand, is how the government believe that 'reductions in environmental protections' is a message that is going to be politically popular. After they have spent years laying the ground for net zero, etc, and whilst they have their own MP's moaning about raw sewage going in to the sea, etc. They also have a policy of 'reducing affordable housing'. How do they expect this to be a politically popular policy? Do they even have the vaguest idea about what they are doing?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Leon said:

    Soho absolutely rammed. Frieze? End lf the world?

    Gay sex?

    No, it's just the way I walk :lol:
    :lol:
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    So what now for rugby union?
    The 11 still standing have lost one-sixth of their home league fixtures.
    And it's early October.

    Why is it in such a mess? Tigers always seem to get a decent crowd across the road from my place.
    Tigers do yes, Bath too. But Worcester were trying to live like prem football on a gate of 5,000, which is League 2. House of cards.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922

    Jessica Elgot
    @jessicaelgot
    ·
    18m
    Robert Halfon, who chairs the education select committee, told Truss she had "trashed the last 10 years" of the Conservative economic record, according to one colleague.

    Put him down as a maybe?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Investment Zones not getting a good reception.

    https://news.oxfordshire.gov.uk/investment-zones/

    Oxfordshire County Council has written to government minsters to explain why it has decided the county should not bid to be involved in Whitehall’s investment zones initiative, which involves creating targeted areas where planning regulations would be relaxed in an attempt to drive growth.

    Councillor Liz Leffman, Leader of Oxfordshire County Council, has written a formal letter to Simon Clark, Secretary of State for Levelling Up, to explain why it was thought this was not the right move for Oxfordshire.

    She said: “We have thanked the government for inviting Oxfordshire to bid for investment zone status. We have decided not to progress this opportunity. Oxfordshire continues to support many very exciting business developments, particularly in the areas of science and
    technology, so in writing a letter to government
    I wanted to explain the logic behind why we feel that applying for an investment zone does not fit with our ambitions....

    “We consider that the de-regularisation of planning controls and reductions in environmental protection, which appear to be a condition of any investment zone, are incompatible with our net zero carbon aspirations and our commitment to protect and enhance biodiversity and environmental quality, as stated in our vision.


    i think you have to be careful of extrapolating Oxfordshire to the entire country. It's a county where the council changes have been disproportionately - not in a bad way - swayed by local concerns over overbuilding on rural land. It's not surprising the local council has said this. Others may be different.

    Yes of course. But the weird thing, which I cannot understand, is how the government believe that 'reductions in environmental protections' is a message that is going to be politically popular. After they have spent years laying the ground for net zero, etc, and whilst they have their own MP's moaning about raw sewage going in to the sea, etc. They also have a policy of 'reducing affordable housing'. How do they expect this to be a politically popular policy? Do they even have the vaguest idea about what they are doing?
    Well, this is the whole debate; growth vs environment? Because you really, really cannot have both. Either you have newts and songbirds and orchids or you have nice houses for people to live in and malls for them to shop in and factories to earn good money in.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    Not 98% or is that in 2022? 👍

    Spot on. 2023 is a long way away for Truss, there has to be some betting on 2022.

    More seriously, how exactly will they get rid of her? The current rules prohibit for a year. There no obvious unity, saviour over the water candidate. But there are the likes of Braverman, Boris, waiting for an opportunity knowing membership will favour them. Sunak preferred by voters of other parties, would be contentious and split the Tory party. And whilst Truss and Kwarteng are diabolical communicators, if it’s the economic approach and ideological message that has sunk Tory’s in the polls, what platform and themes do they want to fight election on?

    Why isn’t 2025 on the chart 🙂
    Maybe CON might have been taken over by LD by 2025?!
    Her exit date could be 2025, could it not? 6-1 Bobby Moore?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,392

    Anyway, in other news, my wife and i have been safely delivered of a son: 7lb 13oz. Very pleased to now have one of each, son and daughter.

    She was safely discharged from hospital this afternoon. Both mum and baby tired but doing well and pleased to be back home.

    Congrats!

  • Anyway, in other news, my wife and i have been safely delivered of a son: 7lb 13oz. Very pleased to now have one of each, son and daughter.

    She was safely discharged from hospital this afternoon. Both mum and baby tired but doing well and pleased to be back home.

    Fantastic news

    We all need good news in these desperate times

    Well done Mum and Dad and baby and no doubt very excited daughter
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Leon said:

    Soho absolutely rammed. Frieze? End lf the world?

    Gay sex?

    Now? You certainly pick your moments - dinner will be ready in fifteen minutes.

    Strapons are the new norm, Mail tells its readers

    Warning: i know lot of you are old and fragile, I can’t be held responsible for any petite bodies you see in this article.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-11297521/Bisexual-Miss-Universe-Australia-Maria-Thattil-says-strap-ons-new-norm.html?dicbo=v2-bcc627c18f9f3ddc8d42a1e0c4ddc85d&ico=outbrain_footer
    What line do you expect the Mail to take, given its enthusiasm for the newly appointed Pegster of Whales?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,300

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Soho absolutely rammed. Frieze? End lf the world?

    Found the same in Edinburgh a couple of weeks ago. This really doesn't feel like a recession in the capitals....
    Anecdote alert.

    Quite a few friends are using some of their WFH/pandemic enforced savings they've built up since March 2020.
    People spend more when they see their savings diminishing by 10% (officially) and much higher (obvious to anyone with eyes who has been to a shop in the last month).

    Also, though I don't want to set Leon off again, we might all be in a nuclear wasteland next year where the only currencies of value will be baked beans and hazmat suits.

    As Don Draper puts it, "I'm living like there's no tomorrow, because there isn't one".

    That doesn't help those who aren't comfortably well off and living on the breadline, though. It's just a further bifurcation of society.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    Not 98% or is that in 2022? 👍

    Spot on. 2023 is a long way away for Truss, there has to be some betting on 2022.

    More seriously, how exactly will they get rid of her? The current rules prohibit for a year. There no obvious unity, saviour over the water candidate. But there are the likes of Braverman, Boris, waiting for an opportunity knowing membership will favour them. Sunak preferred by voters of other parties, would be contentious and split the Tory party. And whilst Truss and Kwarteng are diabolical communicators, if it’s the economic approach and ideological message that has sunk Tory’s in the polls, what platform and themes do they want to fight election on?

    Why isn’t 2025 on the chart 🙂
    Well, a 2025 election would require campaigning over Christmas 2024/New Year 2025. Possible, but not likely :)
    We had a December one last time.

    Why call it earlier when something might turn up to save you?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    edited October 12

    Jessica Elgot
    @jessicaelgot
    ·
    18m
    Robert Halfon, who chairs the education select committee, told Truss she had "trashed the last 10 years" of the Conservative economic record, according to one colleague.

    Based on PMQs, I can bet on the response.

    "But the energy price guarantee."
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,148

    There was a discussion on the site yesterday regards a Scottish referendum, I believe in relation to the Supreme Court case as to whether such a vote would be legal. I have to say I am very puzzled by a lot of the arguments going around about this.

    Firstly the Brexit precedent. The argument goes that it is now constitutional to have a referendum with a 50+1 majority needed for change. There are several flaws with this. The first of which being the obvious point that the UK is an internationally recognised sovereign state and has been for centuries. Scotland is not. So why would the Brexit vote matter? Secondly the Brexit vote was not legally binding anyway. The pledges made by David Cameron and others to respect the result were a matter of taking him at his word. In reality this meant that MPs felt they had little choice but to vote for withdrawal. But that was based on the political consequences of them not doing so. At no point was it seriously suggested that those MPs obstructing Brexit should be prosecuted and sent to prison.

    I don't know what the Supreme Court will do. To me they seem to move in mysterious ways, though maybe that's just because I am not a legal expert. Modern physics can feel rather odd too. I would find it extraordinary if the Supreme Court believed a Scottish referendum could be legally binding but what exactly would be the opposition to an advisory vote? After all what is it but a glorified and very expensive opinion poll? Should the Scottish government not be allowed to hold such a vote? Sturgeon could claim that she would respect the result whichever way it went but since the UK government wouldn't be recognising the legalilty of the vote it wouldn't be worth a can of beans.

    Some people might think my dismissal of Scottish sovereignty is rather cold and unfair. With respect I would question how much they have actually thought through the repercussions of a new vote. There was a referendum 8 years ago on independence that provided a solid if not overwhelming majority for the status quo, that being a sovereign UK. So a determination that it is up to Scots to choose whether they remain in the UK means what? Presumably a 50+1 referendum vote. Such a vote would likely produce several areas or regions with a majority for remaining in the UK. Should these regions be allowed to stay in the UK? Would they have any right of secession from an independent Scotland? My guess is that would not go down well with the SNP. So the position would appear to be that a simple majority in a referendum not authorised by Westminster would be satisfactory and there are no rules as to how often or how many referendum you can hold. There is no indication that any regions of Scotland would have the right to secede at any point either.

    I was one of the people saying this and citing the Brexit vote. As you say, the brexit referendum legally was advisory. But politically it was binding. AIUI the Scottish government's case to the SC is that their proposed referendum is also advisory, so does not tread on the toes of the reserved power held by Westminster.

    The mess created by the Brexit referendum is that legally advisory polls are now treated as politically binding. If Scotland votes to leave - and I believe we will this time simply because ScotCons will try and boycott it - it becomes politically very difficult to set the result aside. "Its only advisory" - and yet the Brexit vote bound the hands of successive parliaments despite also only being advisory.

    The best result will be for the SC to rule against the Scottish government. But as they are asking for an advisory referendum which does not challenge the reserved powers held by Westminster, on what grounds would they say no? The SNP win either way. Sadly.
    'Advisory polls are now treated as politically binding'

    By whom exactly? Not the law I would have thought. It was determined that Theresa May had to get Parliamentary approval to enforce Article 50. Followed by years of arguments in Parliament about what to do including two general elections before we actually left. What would have happened if we hadn't left? There might have been civil unrest and MPs risked losing their seats at the next election but that didn't make it binding.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,320
    IshmaelZ said:

    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Investment Zones not getting a good reception.

    https://news.oxfordshire.gov.uk/investment-zones/

    Oxfordshire County Council has written to government minsters to explain why it has decided the county should not bid to be involved in Whitehall’s investment zones initiative, which involves creating targeted areas where planning regulations would be relaxed in an attempt to drive growth.

    Councillor Liz Leffman, Leader of Oxfordshire County Council, has written a formal letter to Simon Clark, Secretary of State for Levelling Up, to explain why it was thought this was not the right move for Oxfordshire.

    She said: “We have thanked the government for inviting Oxfordshire to bid for investment zone status. We have decided not to progress this opportunity. Oxfordshire continues to support many very exciting business developments, particularly in the areas of science and
    technology, so in writing a letter to government
    I wanted to explain the logic behind why we feel that applying for an investment zone does not fit with our ambitions....

    “We consider that the de-regularisation of planning controls and reductions in environmental protection, which appear to be a condition of any investment zone, are incompatible with our net zero carbon aspirations and our commitment to protect and enhance biodiversity and environmental quality, as stated in our vision.


    i think you have to be careful of extrapolating Oxfordshire to the entire country. It's a county where the council changes have been disproportionately - not in a bad way - swayed by local concerns over overbuilding on rural land. It's not surprising the local council has said this. Others may be different.

    Yes of course. But the weird thing, which I cannot understand, is how the government believe that 'reductions in environmental protections' is a message that is going to be politically popular. After they have spent years laying the ground for net zero, etc, and whilst they have their own MP's moaning about raw sewage going in to the sea, etc. They also have a policy of 'reducing affordable housing'. How do they expect this to be a politically popular policy? Do they even have the vaguest idea about what they are doing?
    Well, this is the whole debate; growth vs environment? Because you really, really cannot have both. Either you have newts and songbirds and orchids or you have nice houses for people to live in and malls for them to shop in and factories to earn good money in.
    You absolutely can have both. You just need to discourage building houses and malls in places that harm the newts and songbirds
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Investment Zones not getting a good reception.

    https://news.oxfordshire.gov.uk/investment-zones/

    Oxfordshire County Council has written to government minsters to explain why it has decided the county should not bid to be involved in Whitehall’s investment zones initiative, which involves creating targeted areas where planning regulations would be relaxed in an attempt to drive growth.

    Councillor Liz Leffman, Leader of Oxfordshire County Council, has written a formal letter to Simon Clark, Secretary of State for Levelling Up, to explain why it was thought this was not the right move for Oxfordshire.

    She said: “We have thanked the government for inviting Oxfordshire to bid for investment zone status. We have decided not to progress this opportunity. Oxfordshire continues to support many very exciting business developments, particularly in the areas of science and
    technology, so in writing a letter to government
    I wanted to explain the logic behind why we feel that applying for an investment zone does not fit with our ambitions....

    “We consider that the de-regularisation of planning controls and reductions in environmental protection, which appear to be a condition of any investment zone, are incompatible with our net zero carbon aspirations and our commitment to protect and enhance biodiversity and environmental quality, as stated in our vision.


    i think you have to be careful of extrapolating Oxfordshire to the entire country. It's a county where the council changes have been disproportionately - not in a bad way - swayed by local concerns over overbuilding on rural land. It's not surprising the local council has said this. Others may be different.

    Yes of course. But the weird thing, which I cannot understand, is how the government believe that 'reductions in environmental protections' is a message that is going to be politically popular. After they have spent years laying the ground for net zero, etc, and whilst they have their own MP's moaning about raw sewage going in to the sea, etc. They also have a policy of 'reducing affordable housing'. How do they expect this to be a politically popular policy? Do they even have the vaguest idea about what they are doing?
    They live in their own little echo chamber world it seems. Surrounded by aides and think tankers who tell them the same rubbish: red tape is killing business, green stuff is all crap, Singapore is to be emulated, the poor are idle and feckless and spend all their money fags and big TVs, the public want Indian immigration but not Polish, grammar schools can be brought back and so on and on.

    This Cabinet are as mad as mad can be.

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,392

    There was a discussion on the site yesterday regards a Scottish referendum, I believe in relation to the Supreme Court case as to whether such a vote would be legal. I have to say I am very puzzled by a lot of the arguments going around about this.

    Firstly the Brexit precedent. The argument goes that it is now constitutional to have a referendum with a 50+1 majority needed for change. There are several flaws with this. The first of which being the obvious point that the UK is an internationally recognised sovereign state and has been for centuries. Scotland is not. So why would the Brexit vote matter? Secondly the Brexit vote was not legally binding anyway. The pledges made by David Cameron and others to respect the result were a matter of taking him at his word. In reality this meant that MPs felt they had little choice but to vote for withdrawal. But that was based on the political consequences of them not doing so. At no point was it seriously suggested that those MPs obstructing Brexit should be prosecuted and sent to prison.

    I don't know what the Supreme Court will do. To me they seem to move in mysterious ways, though maybe that's just because I am not a legal expert. Modern physics can feel rather odd too. I would find it extraordinary if the Supreme Court believed a Scottish referendum could be legally binding but what exactly would be the opposition to an advisory vote? After all what is it but a glorified and very expensive opinion poll? Should the Scottish government not be allowed to hold such a vote? Sturgeon could claim that she would respect the result whichever way it went but since the UK government wouldn't be recognising the legalilty of the vote it wouldn't be worth a can of beans.

    Some people might think my dismissal of Scottish sovereignty is rather cold and unfair. With respect I would question how much they have actually thought through the repercussions of a new vote. There was a referendum 8 years ago on independence that provided a solid if not overwhelming majority for the status quo, that being a sovereign UK. So a determination that it is up to Scots to choose whether they remain in the UK means what? Presumably a 50+1 referendum vote. Such a vote would likely produce several areas or regions with a majority for remaining in the UK. Should these regions be allowed to stay in the UK? Would they have any right of secession from an independent Scotland? My guess is that would not go down well with the SNP. So the position would appear to be that a simple majority in a referendum not authorised by Westminster would be satisfactory and there are no rules as to how often or how many referendum you can hold. There is no indication that any regions of Scotland would have the right to secede at any point either.

    I was one of the people saying this and citing the Brexit vote. As you say, the brexit referendum legally was advisory. But politically it was binding. AIUI the Scottish government's case to the SC is that their proposed referendum is also advisory, so does not tread on the toes of the reserved power held by Westminster.

    The mess created by the Brexit referendum is that legally advisory polls are now treated as politically binding. If Scotland votes to leave - and I believe we will this time simply because ScotCons will try and boycott it - it becomes politically very difficult to set the result aside. "Its only advisory" - and yet the Brexit vote bound the hands of successive parliaments despite also only being advisory.


    The best result will be for the SC to rule against the Scottish government. But as they are asking for an advisory referendum which does not challenge the reserved powers held by Westminster, on what grounds would they say no? The SNP win either way. Sadly.
    The argument is very simple. The intention of Westminster Parliament in drafting the law was very clear. The courts look to the intention if the wording is ambiguous (I don’t think it is actually which is why the SNP’s position references the principle of self determination).

    Westminster intention was gerrof my turf
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,643

    Not 98% or is that in 2022? 👍

    Spot on. 2023 is a long way away for Truss, there has to be some betting on 2022.

    More seriously, how exactly will they get rid of her? The current rules prohibit for a year. There no obvious unity, saviour over the water candidate. But there are the likes of Braverman, Boris, waiting for an opportunity knowing membership will favour them. Sunak preferred by voters of other parties, would be contentious and split the Tory party. And whilst Truss and Kwarteng are diabolical communicators, if it’s the economic approach and ideological message that has sunk Tory’s in the polls, what platform and themes do they want to fight election on?

    Why isn’t 2025 on the chart 🙂
    Well, a 2025 election would require campaigning over Christmas 2024/New Year 2025. Possible, but not likely :)
    We had a December one last time.

    Why call it earlier when something might turn up to save you?
    December 2019 was BEFORE Christmas.

    My point: A 2025 election means January 2025.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    kyf_100 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Soho absolutely rammed. Frieze? End lf the world?

    Found the same in Edinburgh a couple of weeks ago. This really doesn't feel like a recession in the capitals....
    Anecdote alert.

    Quite a few friends are using some of their WFH/pandemic enforced savings they've built up since March 2020.
    People spend more when they see their savings diminishing by 10% (officially) and much higher (obvious to anyone with eyes who has been to a shop in the last month).

    Also, though I don't want to set Leon off again, we might all be in a nuclear wasteland next year where the only currencies of value will be baked beans and hazmat suits.

    As Don Draper puts it, "I'm living like there's no tomorrow, because there isn't one".

    That doesn't help those who aren't comfortably well off and living on the breadline, though. It's just a further bifurcation of society.
    There are a lot of people who have done well out of the pandemic. There are also some people who have been lucky enough to have employers who have given significant COL pay rises/one off payments.

    Depending on how and what you spend your money on, you could have been a big winner out of the last 3 years.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,210
    IshmaelZ said:

    darkage said:

    Investment Zones not getting a good reception.

    https://news.oxfordshire.gov.uk/investment-zones/

    Oxfordshire County Council has written to government minsters to explain why it has decided the county should not bid to be involved in Whitehall’s investment zones initiative, which involves creating targeted areas where planning regulations would be relaxed in an attempt to drive growth.

    Councillor Liz Leffman, Leader of Oxfordshire County Council, has written a formal letter to Simon Clark, Secretary of State for Levelling Up, to explain why it was thought this was not the right move for Oxfordshire.

    She said: “We have thanked the government for inviting Oxfordshire to bid for investment zone status. We have decided not to progress this opportunity. Oxfordshire continues to support many very exciting business developments, particularly in the areas of science and technology, so in writing a letter to government I wanted to explain the logic behind why we feel that applying for an investment zone does not fit with our ambitions....

    “We consider that the de-regularisation of planning controls and reductions in environmental protection, which appear to be a condition of any investment zone, are incompatible with our net zero carbon aspirations and our commitment to protect and enhance biodiversity and environmental quality, as stated in our vision.


    Party: Liberal Democrat Green Alliance (Liberal Democrat Member), it seems relevant to add.
    Yes, Liz is leader of the council, which is an LD/Lab/Green coalition.

    There is one overwhelming reason the Conservatives have lost control of Oxfordshire County Council, and three of its districts, within the space of a few years: local plans that signed up to massive greenfield development with below-par accompanying infrastructure. A, existing residents don't like it. B, when the new houses do go up, they take overspill from Oxford and London... and people from Oxford and London don't vote Tory. It's the classic Blue Wall story.

    So along comes Truss with her plan to win back the Blue Wall: "We're going to offer you the chance to relax environmental and infrastructure standards, so you can build even more houses."

    I think even Baldrick would find it difficult to describe that one as "cunning".
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    darkage said:

    Investment Zones not getting a good reception.

    https://news.oxfordshire.gov.uk/investment-zones/

    From the NIMBYs and Greens, of course not. Which is why they’re desparately needed.
This discussion has been closed.