politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ladbrokes odds on the Rochester and Strood by election
Comments
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chestnut said:
Alternatively, someone who is known to be euro sceptic (perhaps pro-withdrawal) in order to protect the local workforce's rights and incomes.AndyJS said:Whoever this potential Labour defector is, it's probably someone with a history of making slightly politically incorrect statements.
This lot all voted for a referendum:
Ronnie Campbell
Rosie Cooper
Jeremy Corbyn
Jon Cruddas
John Cryer
Ian Davidson
Natascha Engel
Frank Field
Roger Godsiff
Kate Hoey
Kelvin Hopkins
Steve McCabe
John McDonnell
Austin Mitchell
Dennis Skinner
Andrew Smith
Graham Stringer
Gisela Stuart
Mike Wood
Just been through them all and the only plausible defector is Engel.0 -
UKIP tied Labour in Wales in the EU Parliament election.Speedy said:
Most UKIP Labour friendly seats are in Wales? I can understand Yorkshire, but Wales?anotherDave said:
Of the Conservative seats, number 2.Speedy said:
What about Boston?anotherDave said:"Rank in Ukip-friendly [Demograhics] list:
Clacton = 1
Rotherham = 66
Thanet N = 92
Thanet S = 142
Heywood & Midd = 148
Rochester & S = 271
Eastleigh = 324"
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/516175786077081600
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/09/dr-robert-ford-and-dr-matthew-goodwin-the-top-100-most-ukip-friendly-conservative-seats.html
UKIP-friendly Labour seats.
http://labourlist.org/2014/09/the-top-100-ukip-leaning-labour-seats/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wales_(European_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2014/09/22/the-electoral-state-of-the-parties-5-ukip/
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Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.
Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.0 -
No, I want to see Mark Reckless humiliated for his treachery.Speedy said:
Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.
Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.0 -
I see the Cameron is saying this:
"In his Andrew Marr interview, he promised to focus on tightening immigration rules when he attempted to renegotiate Britain's relationship with Brussels before the referendum promised by the end of 2017."
By "tightening immigration rules" does he mean actual immigration rules, or benefits rules? Because the latter isn't immigration rules and won't have any effect.0 -
Not sure I agree with your thinking there, Peter. There are plenty of reasons he could have chanced his political career (not mutually exclusive, it should be noted). In addition to the face value reason - that he believes his beliefs are closer to UKIP than the Tories - and the cynical one, that he believes that UKIP will probably win the seat in 2015 and therefore has done what's necessary to ensure he's the candidate, it could be the mixed version of the two: that he believes he has next to no chance winning with the Tories, due to the intervention of UKIP, but that it could be Labour coming through the middle that does it and that at best he can save himself by defecting but even if not, he can make a gesture and statement in the process.Peter_the_Punter said:Just got £100 on at 1/2 UKIP to win Rochester by-election with my local friendly William Hill betting shop.
Can't see the price lasting long. Reckless by name maybe, but he won't have chanced his political career on this move unless he was pretty sure he will still be in Parliament after the GE. I make him a 1/5 shot, or shorter. It's not as if any of the major Parties are popular; the tide's running UKIP's way and should carry him safely home, at the by and the GE.
I have to say, I don't know the area at all and only have comments of others and electoral data and the like to go on, but I don't think I'd be following you on this one.0 -
'Sem vergonha' as they would say in Brazil.Carola said:You have to admire Shapps's chutzpah, calling someone out for lying.
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Saturday - David Herdson writes a a piece which says Like many a football team 2-1 up in a cup tie with ten minutes to go, a cautious defensiveness seems to have settled over the Labour Party, judging by their conference just gone
Sunday - Andrew Rawnsley writes Labour is playing like a football team hoping for a dodgy 1-0 win
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/28/ed-miliband-flat-and-uninspiring-labour-conference0 -
Churchill crossed the floor of the House too, you know!TheScreamingEagles said:
No, I want to see Mark Reckless humiliated for his treachery.Speedy said:
Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.
Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.0 -
@Isam
You missed Cleethorpes, although I don't think there are any odds available now.
And Greater Grimsby?0 -
As I understand it, their book's thesis is that UKIP supporters come from distinct demographic groups.Artist said:
I don't know what criteria he uses but I'm not sure how an area where UKIP romped first in the European elections isn't in the top 250 UKIP friendly seats.anotherDave said:"Rank in Ukip-friendly [Demograhics] list:
Clacton = 1
Rotherham = 66
Thanet N = 92
Thanet S = 142
Heywood & Midd = 148
Rochester & S = 271
Eastleigh = 324"
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/516175786077081600
Presumably thats not all UKIP supporters, but the most likely ones.
http://youtu.be/e3L-aBgNL1w
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Churchill didn't lie about it, nor did he time it to ensure maximum pain for the party he quit.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Churchill crossed the floor of the House too, you know!TheScreamingEagles said:
No, I want to see Mark Reckless humiliated for his treachery.Speedy said:
Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.
Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.0 -
Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.
Some of us have plans today.0 -
Who would fail to win an overall majority? Tories or Labour?Speedy said:
Peter Henley @BBCPeterH · 15s
Cons would lose Brighton Kemptown to Labour and fail to win overall majority according to @LordAPolls0 -
Fairy nuff, David.david_herdson said:
Not sure I agree with your thinking there, Peter. There are plenty of reasons he could have chanced his political career (not mutually exclusive, it should be noted). In addition to the face value reason - that he believes his beliefs are closer to UKIP than the Tories - and the cynical one, that he believes that UKIP will probably win the seat in 2015 and therefore has done what's necessary to ensure he's the candidate, it could be the mixed version of the two: that he believes he has next to no chance winning with the Tories, due to the intervention of UKIP, but that it could be Labour coming through the middle that does it and that at best he can save himself by defecting but even if not, he can make a gesture and statement in the process.Peter_the_Punter said:Just got £100 on at 1/2 UKIP to win Rochester by-election with my local friendly William Hill betting shop.
Can't see the price lasting long. Reckless by name maybe, but he won't have chanced his political career on this move unless he was pretty sure he will still be in Parliament after the GE. I make him a 1/5 shot, or shorter. It's not as if any of the major Parties are popular; the tide's running UKIP's way and should carry him safely home, at the by and the GE.
I have to say, I don't know the area at all and only have comments of others and electoral data and the like to go on, but I don't think I'd be following you on this one.
Let's see whether 1/2 is still available in a few weeks time.
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Yeah not sure how I missed those... maybe I forgot to look!Peter_the_Punter said:@Isam
You missed Cleethorpes, although I don't think there are any odds available now.
And Greater Grimsby?
They both seem to fit the pattern
Great Grimsby looks good... It will be funny to see the Tories smear the UKIP candidate as being a former NF supporter in the 80s etc when she was the Conservative candidate in 2010, and very nearly won!0 -
I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.0
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I couldn't find Rochester & Strood in the Top 100 UKIP friendly Tory seats !Speedy said:
Most UKIP Labour friendly seats are in Wales? I can understand Yorkshire, but Wales?anotherDave said:
Of the Conservative seats, number 2.Speedy said:
What about Boston?anotherDave said:"Rank in Ukip-friendly [Demograhics] list:
Clacton = 1
Rotherham = 66
Thanet N = 92
Thanet S = 142
Heywood & Midd = 148
Rochester & S = 271
Eastleigh = 324"
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/516175786077081600
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/09/dr-robert-ford-and-dr-matthew-goodwin-the-top-100-most-ukip-friendly-conservative-seats.html
UKIP-friendly Labour seats.
http://labourlist.org/2014/09/the-top-100-ukip-leaning-labour-seats/0 -
You OK hun?TheScreamingEagles said:
Churchill didn't lie about it, nor did he time it to ensure maximum pain for the party he quit.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Churchill crossed the floor of the House too, you know!TheScreamingEagles said:
No, I want to see Mark Reckless humiliated for his treachery.Speedy said:
Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.
Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.
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I doubt UKIP will take any seats off Labour in 2015, but (a) they might do it after that if Labour go into government and become unpopular, and (b) they'll be blocking Labour from ousting the Tories in a lot of traditional Con-Lab marginals.0
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Good !SouthamObserver said:I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.
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Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...TheScreamingEagles said:Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.
Some of us have plans today.0 -
She seems by far the most likely to me too, although UKIP wouldn't have a cat's chance in hell in her seat.SouthamObserver said:I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.
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The most interesting polling of the weekend was UKIP failing to take Rotherham.Danny565 said:I doubt UKIP will take any seats off Labour in 2015, but (a) they might do it after that if Labour go into government and become unpopular, and (b) they'll be blocking Labour from ousting the Tories in a lot of traditional Con-Lab marginals.
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Wouldn't she almost certainly lose her seat though?SouthamObserver said:I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.
I guess she could stand elsewhere in the GE0 -
Britain Elects @britainelects 57s
Lord Ashcroft's snapshot polling is showing:
CON and LAB to gain 8 LDEM seats apiece. CON to lose 24 seats to LAB and 2 to UKIP.0 -
You'll probably have to wait until MondaySunil_Prasannan said:
Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...TheScreamingEagles said:Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.
Some of us have plans today.
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That's not acceptable. UKIP will require more than 2.TheScreamingEagles said:Britain Elects @britainelects 57s
Lord Ashcroft's snapshot polling is showing:
CON and LAB to gain 8 LDEM seats apiece. CON to lose 24 seats to LAB and 2 to UKIP.0 -
Hmph. That sounds very poor for Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:Britain Elects @britainelects 57s
Lord Ashcroft's snapshot polling is showing:
CON and LAB to gain 8 LDEM seats apiece. CON to lose 24 seats to LAB and 2 to UKIP.0 -
Labour held 11 seats in Kent and Essex prior to 2010. If UKIP now lock them out of those seats, their path to victory is much narrower.Danny565 said:I doubt UKIP will take any seats off Labour in 2015, but (a) they might do it after that if Labour go into government and become unpopular, and (b) they'll be blocking Labour from ousting the Tories in a lot of traditional Con-Lab marginals.
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She would definitely lose her seat. But she has never given the impression of being comfortable as a Labour MP. Maybe she'd go to the Lords as a UKIP peer?isam said:
Wouldn't she almost certainly lose her seat though?SouthamObserver said:I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.
I guess she could stand elsewhere in the GE
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Twice!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Churchill crossed the floor of the House too, you know!TheScreamingEagles said:
No, I want to see Mark Reckless humiliated for his treachery.Speedy said:
Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.
Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.0 -
Maybe notDanny565 said:
Hmph. That sounds very poor for Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:Britain Elects @britainelects 57s
Lord Ashcroft's snapshot polling is showing:
CON and LAB to gain 8 LDEM seats apiece. CON to lose 24 seats to LAB and 2 to UKIP.
Kiran Stacey @kiranstacey · 23m
Verdict from @LordAshcroft: from results he has from marginals, looks like Lab heading for a majority. #CPC140 -
She's been an MP for a long time. Perhaps she thinks the principle is more important than the risk of losing a job?isam said:
Wouldn't she almost certainly lose her seat though?SouthamObserver said:I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.
I guess she could stand elsewhere in the GE0 -
Bluddy Opinium!TheScreamingEagles said:
You'll probably have to wait until MondaySunil_Prasannan said:
Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...TheScreamingEagles said:Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.
Some of us have plans today.0 -
Opinium and ICM are always late, don't expect them before tomorrow. I always have to put them on the Wikipedia page with a link to the newspaper article rather than the tables... although, give the Guardian and Observer their due, they always publish the fieldwork dates and number of respondents, which very few papers do.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...TheScreamingEagles said:Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.
Some of us have plans today.
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isam you are a berk to attack OGH over a spelling.isam said:
(To OGH) Oh are you TCPoliticalBetting? ....... Spell his name correctly if you respect him so much!MikeSmithson said:
If the Tories choose a plausible candidate then I will. But get ready my friend for the tons of manure that'll be poured over Mr Reckless in the coming weeks.isam said:
The odds are in the thread header... Fill yer boots!TCPoliticalBetting said:Interesting reactions today
Mark Pritchard @MPritchardMP
The deluded. dull, dalek-like Doncaster diatribe from Mark Reckless is a fantastical betrayal of his constituents, helpers, and colleagues
Darren McCaffrey @DMcCaffreySKY
Extraordinary scenes under heat from hostile press and local Tories Farage and Reckless have done a runner from Rochester centre. Video soon
Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie
Mark Reckless is now being accompanied by a bodyguard down Rochester high street. He clearly doesn't view it a safe seat #c4news
Retweeted by Michael Crick
This is so unlike Carsewll for whom I have a great respect
I am honoured to be thought of as OGH - even though we have radically different political beliefs.
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But only 24 seats changing hands wouldn't even get Labour up to 300 seats though...TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe notDanny565 said:
Hmph. That sounds very poor for Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:Britain Elects @britainelects 57s
Lord Ashcroft's snapshot polling is showing:
CON and LAB to gain 8 LDEM seats apiece. CON to lose 24 seats to LAB and 2 to UKIP.
Kiran Stacey @kiranstacey · 23m
Verdict from @LordAshcroft: from results he has from marginals, looks like Lab heading for a majority. #CPC140 -
Opinium published their indyref poll tables simultaneously as the newspapers published the figures.JohnLilburne said:
Opinium and ICM are always late, don't expect them before tomorrow. I always have to put them on the Wikipedia page with a link to the newspaper article rather than the tables... although, give the Guardian and Observer their due, they always publish the fieldwork dates and number of respondents, which very few papers do.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...TheScreamingEagles said:Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.
Some of us have plans today.0 -
If UKIP cannot take Rotherham now they have no chance in northern towns and cities.0
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How many seats does Glasgow have?Danny565 said:
But only 24 seats changing hands wouldn't even get Labour up to 300 seats though...TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe notDanny565 said:
Hmph. That sounds very poor for Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:Britain Elects @britainelects 57s
Lord Ashcroft's snapshot polling is showing:
CON and LAB to gain 8 LDEM seats apiece. CON to lose 24 seats to LAB and 2 to UKIP.
Kiran Stacey @kiranstacey · 23m
Verdict from @LordAshcroft: from results he has from marginals, looks like Lab heading for a majority. #CPC140 -
I think it might be winning the 24 seats he has polled, then extrapolating them to get the national swing, so on UNS they get a majority.Danny565 said:
But only 24 seats changing hands wouldn't even get Labour up to 300 seats though...TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe notDanny565 said:
Hmph. That sounds very poor for Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:Britain Elects @britainelects 57s
Lord Ashcroft's snapshot polling is showing:
CON and LAB to gain 8 LDEM seats apiece. CON to lose 24 seats to LAB and 2 to UKIP.
Kiran Stacey @kiranstacey · 23m
Verdict from @LordAshcroft: from results he has from marginals, looks like Lab heading for a majority. #CPC140 -
Look, on such matters Cameron relies on policies drawn up by Letwin. Enough said? Yes Cameron lacks a set of fundamental principles - something that a part time study of economics brings in a PPE degree. Unfortunately the main alternative, Miliband, is so dire I fear the economic damage his period in office will bring. At least with Cameron the damage is more easily repairable.Socrates said:I see the Cameron is saying this:
"In his Andrew Marr interview, he promised to focus on tightening immigration rules when he attempted to renegotiate Britain's relationship with Brussels before the referendum promised by the end of 2017."
By "tightening immigration rules" does he mean actual immigration rules, or benefits rules? Because the latter isn't immigration rules and won't have any effect.
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Cool, so it's you who put the latest polls on Wiki? Thanks very much for that.JohnLilburne said:
Opinium and ICM are always late, don't expect them before tomorrow. I always have to put them on the Wikipedia page with a link to the newspaper article rather than the tables... although, give the Guardian and Observer their due, they always publish the fieldwork dates and number of respondents, which very few papers do.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...TheScreamingEagles said:Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.
Some of us have plans today.
I would present this week's ELBOW right now, but need the Ashcroft headlines %-ages, and his sample sizes, as well as Opinium's sample sizes.0 -
Anushka Asthana @SkyAnushka 1m
.@LordAshcroft says if labour wins same share as last time and holds 7% of lib dems (and no sign they won't) Ed M is pm0 -
God! You lot are jittery.TheWatcher said:
The Tories should do a last minute timing change, and swap Cameron's speech around with another high profile one.Speedy said:
We'll find the next defector soon it seems:AndyJS said:Whoever this potential Labour defector is, it's probably someone with a history of making slightly politically incorrect statements.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 59m
"When's the Prime Minister's speech?" Nigel Farage teases, when I ask him whether & when we'll hear of more defections to Ukip
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How many northern seats are UKIP winning off Labour?0
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To help Miliband is worse than reckless, almost treasonous.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, I want to see Mark Reckless humiliated for his treachery.Speedy said:
Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.
Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.
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As I said, he deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, MacLean et al.TCPoliticalBetting said:
To help Miliband is worse than reckless, almost treasoness.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, I want to see Mark Reckless humiliated for his treachery.Speedy said:
Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.
Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.0 -
Where are UKIPs tanks on Labours Lawn?0
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Why not an outgoing MP with nothing to lose? Austin Mitchell?Artist said:
Just been through them all and the only plausible defector is Engel.chestnut said:
Alternatively, someone who is known to be euro sceptic (perhaps pro-withdrawal) in order to protect the local workforce's rights and incomes.AndyJS said:Whoever this potential Labour defector is, it's probably someone with a history of making slightly politically incorrect statements.
This lot all voted for a referendum:
Ronnie Campbell
Rosie Cooper
Jeremy Corbyn
Jon Cruddas
John Cryer
Ian Davidson
Natascha Engel
Frank Field
Roger Godsiff
Kate Hoey
Kelvin Hopkins
Steve McCabe
John McDonnell
Austin Mitchell
Dennis Skinner
Andrew Smith
Graham Stringer
Gisela Stuart
Mike Wood
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Well, I'm just one of them. Anyone can do it... yesterday's Opinium and ComRes went up as soon as TSE posted them here. Someone else did YouGov. If there is a VI in the ashcroft poll, it will go up toot sweet.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Cool, so it's you who put the latest polls on Wiki? Thanks very much for that.JohnLilburne said:
Opinium and ICM are always late, don't expect them before tomorrow. I always have to put them on the Wikipedia page with a link to the newspaper article rather than the tables... although, give the Guardian and Observer their due, they always publish the fieldwork dates and number of respondents, which very few papers do.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...TheScreamingEagles said:Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.
Some of us have plans today.
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Lab-SNP coalition next May? Would make the 2016 Scottish election more interesting, and the SNP "B" team could find themselves in cabinet positions!0
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well they don't do that with the VI polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
Opinium published their indyref poll tables simultaneously as the newspapers published the figures.JohnLilburne said:
Opinium and ICM are always late, don't expect them before tomorrow. I always have to put them on the Wikipedia page with a link to the newspaper article rather than the tables... although, give the Guardian and Observer their due, they always publish the fieldwork dates and number of respondents, which very few papers do.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...TheScreamingEagles said:Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.
Some of us have plans today.
0 -
ComRes @ComResPolls 9m
Full detail of ComRes / @daily_politics poll of Conservative councillors is here http://comres.co.uk/poll/1272/bbc-sunday-politics-conservative-councillors-survey.htm …
More Tory councillors want pact with UKIP.0 -
Err, I'm neither a member nor a worker lackey.MikeK said:
God! You lot are jittery.TheWatcher said:
The Tories should do a last minute timing change, and swap Cameron's speech around with another high profile one.Speedy said:
We'll find the next defector soon it seems:AndyJS said:Whoever this potential Labour defector is, it's probably someone with a history of making slightly politically incorrect statements.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 59m
"When's the Prime Minister's speech?" Nigel Farage teases, when I ask him whether & when we'll hear of more defections to Ukip
Makes little difference to me - fun and games to watch though, playing Farage at his own game.0 -
On a practical basis, it is hard to see the SNP voting against a Labour government too often. And, of course, if Labour wins most seats but loses seats in Scotland the likelihood is that it will have come first in England.SandyRentool said:Lab-SNP coalition next May? Would make the 2016 Scottish election more interesting, and the SNP "B" team could find themselves in cabinet positions!
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ComRes @ComResPolls 16m
New poll today for Sunday Mirror / @IndyOnSunday
Cons: 29% (-3)
Lab: 35% (+1)
LibDem: 7% (-1)
UKIP: 19% (+1)
Green: 4% (+1)
O: 6% (+1)0 -
We are witnesses to history. Oh hold on, no. We are witnesses to the burial of bad news. Shapps's headline-friendly denunciation of Reckless -- "He lied, lied and lied again." -- will knock the Newmark nadgers off the front page.Carola said:You have to admire Shapps's chutzpah, calling someone out for lying.
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http://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway/news/farage-and-reckless-on-the-24211/
Interesting foto of man with small bugle, trying to drown out Farage and Reckless in pub?0 -
Isn't that a straight knock off of what the Guardian said about Aitken? Or have I misremembered?DecrepitJohnL said:
We are witnesses to history. Oh hold on, no. We are witnesses to the burial of bad news. Shapps's headline-friendly denunciation of Reckless -- "He lied, lied and lied again." -- will knock the Newmark nadgers off the front page.Carola said:You have to admire Shapps's chutzpah, calling someone out for lying.
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Ed will probably be PM if he gets 290 seats.TheScreamingEagles said:Anushka Asthana @SkyAnushka 1m
.@LordAshcroft says if labour wins same share as last time and holds 7% of lib dems (and no sign they won't) Ed M is pm
All the other pollsters are telling us that Ed's 2010 vote isn't rock solid.
Comres and Populus have Labour lost votes at 16%, Yougov have them at 19%.
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Bah! Excellent native PB Tory wit!TheScreamingEagles said:
As I said, he deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, MacLean et al.TCPoliticalBetting said:
To help Miliband is worse than reckless, almost treasoness.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, I want to see Mark Reckless humiliated for his treachery.Speedy said:
Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.
Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.
[whack]0 -
This bunch look like they're all expecting a genital picture message from a cabinet minister. pic.twitter.com/5vVc4fF2zO
— Richard Horton (@iofiv) September 28, 2014
"We've been betrayed", sez the Shapps man.0 -
I wouldn't know really.SouthamObserver said:
She would definitely lose her seat. But she has never given the impression of being comfortable as a Labour MP. Maybe she'd go to the Lords as a UKIP peer?isam said:
Wouldn't she almost certainly lose her seat though?SouthamObserver said:I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.
I guess she could stand elsewhere in the GE
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Does anyone know, is Ashcroft's latest polling just a return to the same marginals he has already been polling?0
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Hardly an attack!!TCPoliticalBetting said:
isam you are a berk to attack OGH over a spelling.isam said:
(To OGH) Oh are you TCPoliticalBetting? ....... Spell his name correctly if you respect him so much!MikeSmithson said:
If the Tories choose a plausible candidate then I will. But get ready my friend for the tons of manure that'll be poured over Mr Reckless in the coming weeks.isam said:
The odds are in the thread header... Fill yer boots!TCPoliticalBetting said:Interesting reactions today
Mark Pritchard @MPritchardMP
The deluded. dull, dalek-like Doncaster diatribe from Mark Reckless is a fantastical betrayal of his constituents, helpers, and colleagues
Darren McCaffrey @DMcCaffreySKY
Extraordinary scenes under heat from hostile press and local Tories Farage and Reckless have done a runner from Rochester centre. Video soon
Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie
Mark Reckless is now being accompanied by a bodyguard down Rochester high street. He clearly doesn't view it a safe seat #c4news
Retweeted by Michael Crick
This is so unlike Carsewll for whom I have a great respect
I am honoured to be thought of as OGH - even though we have radically different political beliefs.
I am just fighting pettiness with pettiness.. shame on me really0 -
test0
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To all you professional gamblers,
Are there any odds on Vilnius Central (Boston)? I can't see much changing there before the GE and Mark Simmonds has done a runner. I don't usually bet but anything better than evens looks good.0 -
The Red Liberals seem to think more highly of Labour than it's 2010 voters do.chestnut said:
Ed will probably be PM if he gets 290 seats.TheScreamingEagles said:Anushka Asthana @SkyAnushka 1m
.@LordAshcroft says if labour wins same share as last time and holds 7% of lib dems (and no sign they won't) Ed M is pm
All the other pollsters are telling us that Ed's 2010 vote isn't rock solid.
Comres and Populus have Labour lost votes at 16%, Yougov have them at 19%.
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Hoey is 68, according to Wikipedia, so presumably she'd be retiring soon, or taking ermine. However, surely any Labour defection is far less likely than Conservative ones for the simple reason that Labour expects to win the election which is only six months away.isam said:
Wouldn't she almost certainly lose her seat though?SouthamObserver said:I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.
I guess she could stand elsewhere in the GE0 -
Surely "are you going to defect?" is a question you are supposed to lie to, like when you ask Boris if he wants to be party leader.DecrepitJohnL said:
We are witnesses to history. Oh hold on, no. We are witnesses to the burial of bad news. Shapps's headline-friendly denunciation of Reckless -- "He lied, lied and lied again." -- will knock the Newmark nadgers off the front page.Carola said:You have to admire Shapps's chutzpah, calling someone out for lying.
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Their EU question is a surprise to me. I would have expected that to be a lot more anti-EU.MikeK said:ComRes @ComResPolls 9m
Full detail of ComRes / @daily_politics poll of Conservative councillors is here http://comres.co.uk/poll/1272/bbc-sunday-politics-conservative-councillors-survey.htm …
More Tory councillors want pact with UKIP.
"45% of Conservative councillors say that they would vote to leave the European Union if a referendum were held tomorrow. 39% would vote to stay in the EU."0 -
You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.MikeK said:This bunch look like they're all expecting a genital picture message from a cabinet minister. pic.twitter.com/5vVc4fF2zO
— Richard Horton (@iofiv) September 28, 2014
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You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.JohnLilburne said:MikeK said:This bunch look like they're all expecting a genital picture message from a cabinet minister. pic.twitter.com/5vVc4fF2zO
— Richard Horton (@iofiv) September 28, 2014
Rookie mistake.
You can do a screen shot of the pics on snap chat.
So I have been told.0 -
Gluttons for buyer's remorse!Sean_F said:
The Red Liberals seem to think more highly of Labour than it's 2010 voters do.chestnut said:
Ed will probably be PM if he gets 290 seats.TheScreamingEagles said:Anushka Asthana @SkyAnushka 1m
.@LordAshcroft says if labour wins same share as last time and holds 7% of lib dems (and no sign they won't) Ed M is pm
All the other pollsters are telling us that Ed's 2010 vote isn't rock solid.
Comres and Populus have Labour lost votes at 16%, Yougov have them at 19%.0 -
Rookie mistake.TheScreamingEagles said:
You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.JohnLilburne said:MikeK said:This bunch look like they're all expecting a genital picture message from a cabinet minister. pic.twitter.com/5vVc4fF2zO
— Richard Horton (@iofiv) September 28, 2014
You can do a screen shot of the pics on snap chat.
So I have been told.I've not yet worked out how to do a screenshot, although sometimes I do it by accident as I sometimes find a photo of my home page in all my other snaps.
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I've not yet worked out how to do a screenshot, although sometimes I do it by accident as I sometimes find a photo of my home page in all my other snaps.JohnLilburne said:
Rookie mistake.TheScreamingEagles said:
You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.JohnLilburne said:MikeK said:This bunch look like they're all expecting a genital picture message from a cabinet minister. pic.twitter.com/5vVc4fF2zO
— Richard Horton (@iofiv) September 28, 2014
You can do a screen shot of the pics on snap chat.
So I have been told.
What phone do you have?0 -
Rookie mistake.TheScreamingEagles said:
You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.JohnLilburne said:MikeK said:This bunch look like they're all expecting a genital picture message from a cabinet minister. pic.twitter.com/5vVc4fF2zO
— Richard Horton (@iofiv) September 28, 2014
You can do a screen shot of the pics on snap chat.
So I have been told.
Political erectness?0 -
Been looking for them, CD, but can't find any. Isam reckons they were 5/1 but has probably shorter now.CD13 said:To all you professional gamblers,
Are there any odds on Vilnius Central (Boston)? I can't see much changing there before the GE and Mark Simmonds has done a runner. I don't usually bet but anything better than evens looks good.
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I wonder how many marginal seats did Lord Ashcroft poll.
I can guess that one of those 2 UKIP gains in marginal seats would be Thurrock though.0 -
Ladbrokes priced up every constituency but have pulled them for now.CD13 said:To all you professional gamblers,
Are there any odds on Vilnius Central (Boston)? I can't see much changing there before the GE and Mark Simmonds has done a runner. I don't usually bet but anything better than evens looks good.
But if UKIP really are 20 points clear, then I guess Evens will be but a dream
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So can someone sum up Ashcrofts poll?0
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What phone do you have?HTC One STheScreamingEagles said:
I've not yet worked out how to do a screenshot, although sometimes I do it by accident as I sometimes find a photo of my home page in all my other snaps.JohnLilburne said:
Rookie mistake.TheScreamingEagles said:
You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.JohnLilburne said:MikeK said:This bunch look like they're all expecting a genital picture message from a cabinet minister. pic.twitter.com/5vVc4fF2zO
— Richard Horton (@iofiv) September 28, 2014
You can do a screen shot of the pics on snap chat.
So I have been told.
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Finally some details are leaking:
http://cnmnewz.com/conservative-party-conference-lord-ashcroft-polling-data-reveals-latest-torylabour-trends/
"The numbers revealed that the Conservative Party is optimistic about stealing a number of high profile Liberal Democrat seats.. Constituencies such as Berwick upon Tweed, Chippenham, Somerton and Frome, St Austell and Newquay, and Wells.
Of the seats targeted by Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party, Lord Ashcroft admitted that the Conservatives are likely to lose at least 2 seats to UKIP, but did not go into further detail. This did not factor in the Clacton and Rochester and Strood by-elections."0 -
Isam,
Thanks. I'm a very cautious gambler and I've probably missed the boat now.0 -
Tables are for the 17th Sep?JohnLilburne said:0 -
Yes, back to the hypocrisy and double standards against UKIP you mentioned earlier.isam said:Great Grimsby looks good... It will be funny to see the Tories smear the UKIP candidate as being a former NF supporter in the 80s etc when she was the Conservative candidate in 2010, and very nearly won!
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@SPEEDY
"Of the seats targeted by Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party, Lord Ashcroft admitted that the Conservatives are likely to lose at least 2 seats to UKIP, but did not go into further detail. This did not factor in the Clacton and Rochester and Strood by-elections."
So the 13/8 >5 seats (Betfair) remains value. it seems.0 -
PtP,
I blame tim.
I could hardly believe how many people I met in Boston pubs who were intending to vote Ukip. But good 'ol tim said it was all a mirage and I assumed I was meeting an unrepresentative crowd.0 -
Can you repeat your comment about Maria Miller's speech to conference in 2012?Ninoinoz said:
Yes, back to the hypocrisy and double standards against UKIP you mentioned earlier.isam said:Great Grimsby looks good... It will be funny to see the Tories smear the UKIP candidate as being a former NF supporter in the 80s etc when she was the Conservative candidate in 2010, and very nearly won!
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Bognor Regis and Littlehampton was in my 3rd list of possibles for UKIP
Anecdotally when I was working at Glorious Goodwood, the locals call Bognor "Bosnia Regis"... so maybe thats worth a look0 -
Yes, fieldwork 12-17 Sept. Lab 35, Con 30, LD 7, UKIP 19.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Tables are for the 17th Sep?JohnLilburne said:
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You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.JohnLilburne said:MikeK said:This bunch look like they're all expecting a genital picture message from a cabinet minister. pic.twitter.com/5vVc4fF2zO
— Richard Horton (@iofiv) September 28, 2014
I don't understand the fashion for texting and e-mailing photographs of one's genitalia.
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Good News, Ashcroft's national poll is large enough for subsamples to have meaning.
Look at Scotland (sample 624):
SNP 35
LAB 32
CON 17
LD 9
UKIP 6
Or the Midlands (sample 1582):
LAB 33
CON 33
UKIP 20
LD 7
Interesting, no one has discussed the prospects of UKIP in the midlands.0
