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  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    chestnut said:

    AndyJS said:

    Whoever this potential Labour defector is, it's probably someone with a history of making slightly politically incorrect statements.

    Alternatively, someone who is known to be euro sceptic (perhaps pro-withdrawal) in order to protect the local workforce's rights and incomes.

    This lot all voted for a referendum:

    Ronnie Campbell
    Rosie Cooper
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Jon Cruddas
    John Cryer
    Ian Davidson
    Natascha Engel
    Frank Field
    Roger Godsiff
    Kate Hoey
    Kelvin Hopkins
    Steve McCabe
    John McDonnell
    Austin Mitchell
    Dennis Skinner
    Andrew Smith
    Graham Stringer
    Gisela Stuart
    Mike Wood



    Just been through them all and the only plausible defector is Engel.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited September 2014
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    "Rank in Ukip-friendly [Demograhics] list:
    Clacton = 1
    Rotherham = 66
    Thanet N = 92
    Thanet S = 142
    Heywood & Midd = 148
    Rochester & S = 271
    Eastleigh = 324"

    twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/516175786077081600

    What about Boston?
    Of the Conservative seats, number 2.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/09/dr-robert-ford-and-dr-matthew-goodwin-the-top-100-most-ukip-friendly-conservative-seats.html

    UKIP-friendly Labour seats.

    http://labourlist.org/2014/09/the-top-100-ukip-leaning-labour-seats/
    Most UKIP Labour friendly seats are in Wales? I can understand Yorkshire, but Wales?
    UKIP tied Labour in Wales in the EU Parliament election.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wales_(European_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results

    http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2014/09/22/the-electoral-state-of-the-parties-5-ukip/
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.

    Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.

    Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?
  • Speedy said:

    I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.

    Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.

    Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?
    No, I want to see Mark Reckless humiliated for his treachery.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I see the Cameron is saying this:

    "In his Andrew Marr interview, he promised to focus on tightening immigration rules when he attempted to renegotiate Britain's relationship with Brussels before the referendum promised by the end of 2017."

    By "tightening immigration rules" does he mean actual immigration rules, or benefits rules? Because the latter isn't immigration rules and won't have any effect.
  • Just got £100 on at 1/2 UKIP to win Rochester by-election with my local friendly William Hill betting shop.

    Can't see the price lasting long. Reckless by name maybe, but he won't have chanced his political career on this move unless he was pretty sure he will still be in Parliament after the GE. I make him a 1/5 shot, or shorter. It's not as if any of the major Parties are popular; the tide's running UKIP's way and should carry him safely home, at the by and the GE.

    Not sure I agree with your thinking there, Peter. There are plenty of reasons he could have chanced his political career (not mutually exclusive, it should be noted). In addition to the face value reason - that he believes his beliefs are closer to UKIP than the Tories - and the cynical one, that he believes that UKIP will probably win the seat in 2015 and therefore has done what's necessary to ensure he's the candidate, it could be the mixed version of the two: that he believes he has next to no chance winning with the Tories, due to the intervention of UKIP, but that it could be Labour coming through the middle that does it and that at best he can save himself by defecting but even if not, he can make a gesture and statement in the process.

    I have to say, I don't know the area at all and only have comments of others and electoral data and the like to go on, but I don't think I'd be following you on this one.
  • Carola said:

    You have to admire Shapps's chutzpah, calling someone out for lying.

    'Sem vergonha' as they would say in Brazil.
  • Saturday - David Herdson writes a a piece which says Like many a football team 2-1 up in a cup tie with ten minutes to go, a cautious defensiveness seems to have settled over the Labour Party, judging by their conference just gone

    Sunday - Andrew Rawnsley writes Labour is playing like a football team hoping for a dodgy 1-0 win

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/28/ed-miliband-flat-and-uninspiring-labour-conference
  • Speedy said:

    I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.

    Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.

    Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?
    No, I want to see Mark Reckless humiliated for his treachery.
    Churchill crossed the floor of the House too, you know!
  • @Isam

    You missed Cleethorpes, although I don't think there are any odds available now.

    And Greater Grimsby?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited September 2014
    Artist said:

    "Rank in Ukip-friendly [Demograhics] list:
    Clacton = 1
    Rotherham = 66
    Thanet N = 92
    Thanet S = 142
    Heywood & Midd = 148
    Rochester & S = 271
    Eastleigh = 324"

    twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/516175786077081600

    I don't know what criteria he uses but I'm not sure how an area where UKIP romped first in the European elections isn't in the top 250 UKIP friendly seats.
    As I understand it, their book's thesis is that UKIP supporters come from distinct demographic groups.

    Presumably thats not all UKIP supporters, but the most likely ones.

    http://youtu.be/e3L-aBgNL1w
  • Speedy said:

    I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.

    Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.

    Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?
    No, I want to see Mark Reckless humiliated for his treachery.
    Churchill crossed the floor of the House too, you know!
    Churchill didn't lie about it, nor did he time it to ensure maximum pain for the party he quit.
  • Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.

    Some of us have plans today.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Speedy said:



    Peter Henley @BBCPeterH · 15s
    Cons would lose Brighton Kemptown to Labour and fail to win overall majority according to @LordAPolls

    Who would fail to win an overall majority? Tories or Labour?
  • Just got £100 on at 1/2 UKIP to win Rochester by-election with my local friendly William Hill betting shop.

    Can't see the price lasting long. Reckless by name maybe, but he won't have chanced his political career on this move unless he was pretty sure he will still be in Parliament after the GE. I make him a 1/5 shot, or shorter. It's not as if any of the major Parties are popular; the tide's running UKIP's way and should carry him safely home, at the by and the GE.

    Not sure I agree with your thinking there, Peter. There are plenty of reasons he could have chanced his political career (not mutually exclusive, it should be noted). In addition to the face value reason - that he believes his beliefs are closer to UKIP than the Tories - and the cynical one, that he believes that UKIP will probably win the seat in 2015 and therefore has done what's necessary to ensure he's the candidate, it could be the mixed version of the two: that he believes he has next to no chance winning with the Tories, due to the intervention of UKIP, but that it could be Labour coming through the middle that does it and that at best he can save himself by defecting but even if not, he can make a gesture and statement in the process.

    I have to say, I don't know the area at all and only have comments of others and electoral data and the like to go on, but I don't think I'd be following you on this one.
    Fairy nuff, David.

    Let's see whether 1/2 is still available in a few weeks time.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2014

    @Isam

    You missed Cleethorpes, although I don't think there are any odds available now.

    And Greater Grimsby?

    Yeah not sure how I missed those... maybe I forgot to look!

    They both seem to fit the pattern

    Great Grimsby looks good... It will be funny to see the Tories smear the UKIP candidate as being a former NF supporter in the 80s etc when she was the Conservative candidate in 2010, and very nearly won!
  • I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    "Rank in Ukip-friendly [Demograhics] list:
    Clacton = 1
    Rotherham = 66
    Thanet N = 92
    Thanet S = 142
    Heywood & Midd = 148
    Rochester & S = 271
    Eastleigh = 324"

    twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/516175786077081600

    What about Boston?
    Of the Conservative seats, number 2.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/09/dr-robert-ford-and-dr-matthew-goodwin-the-top-100-most-ukip-friendly-conservative-seats.html

    UKIP-friendly Labour seats.

    http://labourlist.org/2014/09/the-top-100-ukip-leaning-labour-seats/
    Most UKIP Labour friendly seats are in Wales? I can understand Yorkshire, but Wales?
    I couldn't find Rochester & Strood in the Top 100 UKIP friendly Tory seats !
  • Speedy said:

    I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.

    Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.

    Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?
    No, I want to see Mark Reckless humiliated for his treachery.
    Churchill crossed the floor of the House too, you know!
    Churchill didn't lie about it, nor did he time it to ensure maximum pain for the party he quit.
    You OK hun?

    :)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I doubt UKIP will take any seats off Labour in 2015, but (a) they might do it after that if Labour go into government and become unpopular, and (b) they'll be blocking Labour from ousting the Tories in a lot of traditional Con-Lab marginals.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.

    Good !
  • Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.

    Some of us have plans today.

    Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.

    She seems by far the most likely to me too, although UKIP wouldn't have a cat's chance in hell in her seat.
  • Danny565 said:

    I doubt UKIP will take any seats off Labour in 2015, but (a) they might do it after that if Labour go into government and become unpopular, and (b) they'll be blocking Labour from ousting the Tories in a lot of traditional Con-Lab marginals.

    The most interesting polling of the weekend was UKIP failing to take Rotherham.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.

    Wouldn't she almost certainly lose her seat though?

    I guess she could stand elsewhere in the GE
  • Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 57s

    Lord Ashcroft's snapshot polling is showing:

    CON and LAB to gain 8 LDEM seats apiece. CON to lose 24 seats to LAB and 2 to UKIP.
  • Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.

    Some of us have plans today.

    Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...
    You'll probably have to wait until Monday
  • Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 57s

    Lord Ashcroft's snapshot polling is showing:

    CON and LAB to gain 8 LDEM seats apiece. CON to lose 24 seats to LAB and 2 to UKIP.

    That's not acceptable. UKIP will require more than 2.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 57s

    Lord Ashcroft's snapshot polling is showing:

    CON and LAB to gain 8 LDEM seats apiece. CON to lose 24 seats to LAB and 2 to UKIP.

    Hmph. That sounds very poor for Labour.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Danny565 said:

    I doubt UKIP will take any seats off Labour in 2015, but (a) they might do it after that if Labour go into government and become unpopular, and (b) they'll be blocking Labour from ousting the Tories in a lot of traditional Con-Lab marginals.

    Labour held 11 seats in Kent and Essex prior to 2010. If UKIP now lock them out of those seats, their path to victory is much narrower.
  • isam said:

    I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.

    Wouldn't she almost certainly lose her seat though?

    I guess she could stand elsewhere in the GE

    She would definitely lose her seat. But she has never given the impression of being comfortable as a Labour MP. Maybe she'd go to the Lords as a UKIP peer?

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Speedy said:

    I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.

    Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.

    Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?
    No, I want to see Mark Reckless humiliated for his treachery.
    Churchill crossed the floor of the House too, you know!
    Twice!
  • Danny565 said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 57s

    Lord Ashcroft's snapshot polling is showing:

    CON and LAB to gain 8 LDEM seats apiece. CON to lose 24 seats to LAB and 2 to UKIP.

    Hmph. That sounds very poor for Labour.
    Maybe not

    Kiran Stacey @kiranstacey · 23m

    Verdict from @LordAshcroft: from results he has from marginals, looks like Lab heading for a majority. #CPC14
  • isam said:

    I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.

    Wouldn't she almost certainly lose her seat though?

    I guess she could stand elsewhere in the GE
    She's been an MP for a long time. Perhaps she thinks the principle is more important than the risk of losing a job?
  • Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.

    Some of us have plans today.

    Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...
    You'll probably have to wait until Monday
    Bluddy Opinium!
  • Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.

    Some of us have plans today.

    Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...
    Opinium and ICM are always late, don't expect them before tomorrow. I always have to put them on the Wikipedia page with a link to the newspaper article rather than the tables... although, give the Guardian and Observer their due, they always publish the fieldwork dates and number of respondents, which very few papers do.

  • isam said:

    isam said:

    Interesting reactions today

    Mark Pritchard @MPritchardMP
    The deluded. dull, dalek-like Doncaster diatribe from Mark Reckless is a fantastical betrayal of his constituents, helpers, and colleagues

    Darren McCaffrey @DMcCaffreySKY
    Extraordinary scenes under heat from hostile press and local Tories Farage and Reckless have done a runner from Rochester centre. Video soon

    Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie
    Mark Reckless is now being accompanied by a bodyguard down Rochester high street. He clearly doesn't view it a safe seat #c4news
    Retweeted by Michael Crick

    The odds are in the thread header... Fill yer boots!
    If the Tories choose a plausible candidate then I will. But get ready my friend for the tons of manure that'll be poured over Mr Reckless in the coming weeks.

    This is so unlike Carsewll for whom I have a great respect
    (To OGH) Oh are you TCPoliticalBetting? ....... Spell his name correctly if you respect him so much!
    isam you are a berk to attack OGH over a spelling.
    I am honoured to be thought of as OGH - even though we have radically different political beliefs.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 57s

    Lord Ashcroft's snapshot polling is showing:

    CON and LAB to gain 8 LDEM seats apiece. CON to lose 24 seats to LAB and 2 to UKIP.

    Hmph. That sounds very poor for Labour.
    Maybe not

    Kiran Stacey @kiranstacey · 23m

    Verdict from @LordAshcroft: from results he has from marginals, looks like Lab heading for a majority. #CPC14
    But only 24 seats changing hands wouldn't even get Labour up to 300 seats though...
  • Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.

    Some of us have plans today.

    Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...
    Opinium and ICM are always late, don't expect them before tomorrow. I always have to put them on the Wikipedia page with a link to the newspaper article rather than the tables... although, give the Guardian and Observer their due, they always publish the fieldwork dates and number of respondents, which very few papers do.

    Opinium published their indyref poll tables simultaneously as the newspapers published the figures.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    If UKIP cannot take Rotherham now they have no chance in northern towns and cities.
  • Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 57s

    Lord Ashcroft's snapshot polling is showing:

    CON and LAB to gain 8 LDEM seats apiece. CON to lose 24 seats to LAB and 2 to UKIP.

    Hmph. That sounds very poor for Labour.
    Maybe not

    Kiran Stacey @kiranstacey · 23m

    Verdict from @LordAshcroft: from results he has from marginals, looks like Lab heading for a majority. #CPC14
    But only 24 seats changing hands wouldn't even get Labour up to 300 seats though...
    How many seats does Glasgow have?
  • Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 57s

    Lord Ashcroft's snapshot polling is showing:

    CON and LAB to gain 8 LDEM seats apiece. CON to lose 24 seats to LAB and 2 to UKIP.

    Hmph. That sounds very poor for Labour.
    Maybe not

    Kiran Stacey @kiranstacey · 23m

    Verdict from @LordAshcroft: from results he has from marginals, looks like Lab heading for a majority. #CPC14
    But only 24 seats changing hands wouldn't even get Labour up to 300 seats though...
    I think it might be winning the 24 seats he has polled, then extrapolating them to get the national swing, so on UNS they get a majority.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2014
    Socrates said:

    I see the Cameron is saying this:

    "In his Andrew Marr interview, he promised to focus on tightening immigration rules when he attempted to renegotiate Britain's relationship with Brussels before the referendum promised by the end of 2017."

    By "tightening immigration rules" does he mean actual immigration rules, or benefits rules? Because the latter isn't immigration rules and won't have any effect.

    Look, on such matters Cameron relies on policies drawn up by Letwin. Enough said? Yes Cameron lacks a set of fundamental principles - something that a part time study of economics brings in a PPE degree. Unfortunately the main alternative, Miliband, is so dire I fear the economic damage his period in office will bring. At least with Cameron the damage is more easily repairable.
  • Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.

    Some of us have plans today.

    Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...
    Opinium and ICM are always late, don't expect them before tomorrow. I always have to put them on the Wikipedia page with a link to the newspaper article rather than the tables... although, give the Guardian and Observer their due, they always publish the fieldwork dates and number of respondents, which very few papers do.

    Cool, so it's you who put the latest polls on Wiki? Thanks very much for that.

    I would present this week's ELBOW right now, but need the Ashcroft headlines %-ages, and his sample sizes, as well as Opinium's sample sizes.
  • Anushka Asthana ‏@SkyAnushka 1m

    .@LordAshcroft says if labour wins same share as last time and holds 7% of lib dems (and no sign they won't) Ed M is pm
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Whoever this potential Labour defector is, it's probably someone with a history of making slightly politically incorrect statements.

    We'll find the next defector soon it seems:

    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 59m
    "When's the Prime Minister's speech?" Nigel Farage teases, when I ask him whether & when we'll hear of more defections to Ukip
    The Tories should do a last minute timing change, and swap Cameron's speech around with another high profile one.
    God! You lot are jittery. :D
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    How many northern seats are UKIP winning off Labour?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2014

    Speedy said:

    I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.

    Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.

    Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?
    No, I want to see Mark Reckless humiliated for his treachery.
    To help Miliband is worse than reckless, almost treasonous.
  • Speedy said:

    I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.

    Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.

    Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?
    No, I want to see Mark Reckless humiliated for his treachery.
    To help Miliband is worse than reckless, almost treasoness.
    As I said, he deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, MacLean et al.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Where are UKIPs tanks on Labours Lawn?
  • Artist said:

    chestnut said:

    AndyJS said:

    Whoever this potential Labour defector is, it's probably someone with a history of making slightly politically incorrect statements.

    Alternatively, someone who is known to be euro sceptic (perhaps pro-withdrawal) in order to protect the local workforce's rights and incomes.

    This lot all voted for a referendum:

    Ronnie Campbell
    Rosie Cooper
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Jon Cruddas
    John Cryer
    Ian Davidson
    Natascha Engel
    Frank Field
    Roger Godsiff
    Kate Hoey
    Kelvin Hopkins
    Steve McCabe
    John McDonnell
    Austin Mitchell
    Dennis Skinner
    Andrew Smith
    Graham Stringer
    Gisela Stuart
    Mike Wood
    Just been through them all and the only plausible defector is Engel.
    Why not an outgoing MP with nothing to lose? Austin Mitchell?
  • Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.

    Some of us have plans today.

    Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...
    Opinium and ICM are always late, don't expect them before tomorrow. I always have to put them on the Wikipedia page with a link to the newspaper article rather than the tables... although, give the Guardian and Observer their due, they always publish the fieldwork dates and number of respondents, which very few papers do.

    Cool, so it's you who put the latest polls on Wiki? Thanks very much for that.
    Well, I'm just one of them. Anyone can do it... yesterday's Opinium and ComRes went up as soon as TSE posted them here. Someone else did YouGov. If there is a VI in the ashcroft poll, it will go up toot sweet.

  • Lab-SNP coalition next May? Would make the 2016 Scottish election more interesting, and the SNP "B" team could find themselves in cabinet positions!
  • Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.

    Some of us have plans today.

    Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...
    Opinium and ICM are always late, don't expect them before tomorrow. I always have to put them on the Wikipedia page with a link to the newspaper article rather than the tables... although, give the Guardian and Observer their due, they always publish the fieldwork dates and number of respondents, which very few papers do.

    Opinium published their indyref poll tables simultaneously as the newspapers published the figures.
    well they don't do that with the VI polls.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    ComRes ‏@ComResPolls 9m
    Full detail of ComRes / @daily_politics poll of Conservative councillors is here http://comres.co.uk/poll/1272/bbc-sunday-politics-conservative-councillors-survey.htm

    More Tory councillors want pact with UKIP.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    MikeK said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Whoever this potential Labour defector is, it's probably someone with a history of making slightly politically incorrect statements.

    We'll find the next defector soon it seems:

    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 59m
    "When's the Prime Minister's speech?" Nigel Farage teases, when I ask him whether & when we'll hear of more defections to Ukip
    The Tories should do a last minute timing change, and swap Cameron's speech around with another high profile one.
    God! You lot are jittery. :D
    Err, I'm neither a member nor a worker lackey.

    Makes little difference to me - fun and games to watch though, playing Farage at his own game.
  • Lab-SNP coalition next May? Would make the 2016 Scottish election more interesting, and the SNP "B" team could find themselves in cabinet positions!

    On a practical basis, it is hard to see the SNP voting against a Labour government too often. And, of course, if Labour wins most seats but loses seats in Scotland the likelihood is that it will have come first in England.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    ComRes ‏@ComResPolls 16m
    New poll today for Sunday Mirror / @IndyOnSunday
    Cons: 29% (-3)
    Lab: 35% (+1)
    LibDem: 7% (-1)
    UKIP: 19% (+1)
    Green: 4% (+1)
    O: 6% (+1)
  • Carola said:

    You have to admire Shapps's chutzpah, calling someone out for lying.

    We are witnesses to history. Oh hold on, no. We are witnesses to the burial of bad news. Shapps's headline-friendly denunciation of Reckless -- "He lied, lied and lied again." -- will knock the Newmark nadgers off the front page.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    IOS said:

    How many northern seats are UKIP winning off Labour?

    None. And they won't. And there won't be a single Labour defection.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    http://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway/news/farage-and-reckless-on-the-24211/

    Interesting foto of man with small bugle, trying to drown out Farage and Reckless in pub?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    IOS said:

    Where are UKIPs tanks on Labours Lawn?

    Nissan Micras are no good on lawns.
  • Carola said:

    You have to admire Shapps's chutzpah, calling someone out for lying.

    We are witnesses to history. Oh hold on, no. We are witnesses to the burial of bad news. Shapps's headline-friendly denunciation of Reckless -- "He lied, lied and lied again." -- will knock the Newmark nadgers off the front page.
    Isn't that a straight knock off of what the Guardian said about Aitken? Or have I misremembered?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Anushka Asthana ‏@SkyAnushka 1m

    .@LordAshcroft says if labour wins same share as last time and holds 7% of lib dems (and no sign they won't) Ed M is pm

    Ed will probably be PM if he gets 290 seats.

    All the other pollsters are telling us that Ed's 2010 vote isn't rock solid.

    Comres and Populus have Labour lost votes at 16%, Yougov have them at 19%.


  • Speedy said:

    I'm joining team 2015, to campaign in Rochester & Strood.

    Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.

    Is that because you're hoping to meet Labour's 27 year old female subcontinent kickboxer PPC ?
    No, I want to see Mark Reckless humiliated for his treachery.
    To help Miliband is worse than reckless, almost treasoness.
    As I said, he deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, MacLean et al.
    Bah! Excellent native PB Tory wit!
    [whack]
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    This bunch look like they're all expecting a genital picture message from a cabinet minister. pic.twitter.com/5vVc4fF2zO

    — Richard Horton (@iofiv) September 28, 2014

    "We've been betrayed", sez the Shapps man.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.

    Wouldn't she almost certainly lose her seat though?

    I guess she could stand elsewhere in the GE

    She would definitely lose her seat. But she has never given the impression of being comfortable as a Labour MP. Maybe she'd go to the Lords as a UKIP peer?

    I wouldn't know really.

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Does anyone know, is Ashcroft's latest polling just a return to the same marginals he has already been polling?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Interesting reactions today

    Mark Pritchard @MPritchardMP
    The deluded. dull, dalek-like Doncaster diatribe from Mark Reckless is a fantastical betrayal of his constituents, helpers, and colleagues

    Darren McCaffrey @DMcCaffreySKY
    Extraordinary scenes under heat from hostile press and local Tories Farage and Reckless have done a runner from Rochester centre. Video soon

    Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie
    Mark Reckless is now being accompanied by a bodyguard down Rochester high street. He clearly doesn't view it a safe seat #c4news
    Retweeted by Michael Crick

    The odds are in the thread header... Fill yer boots!
    If the Tories choose a plausible candidate then I will. But get ready my friend for the tons of manure that'll be poured over Mr Reckless in the coming weeks.

    This is so unlike Carsewll for whom I have a great respect
    (To OGH) Oh are you TCPoliticalBetting? ....... Spell his name correctly if you respect him so much!
    isam you are a berk to attack OGH over a spelling.
    I am honoured to be thought of as OGH - even though we have radically different political beliefs.
    Hardly an attack!!

    I am just fighting pettiness with pettiness.. shame on me really
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2014
    test
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    To all you professional gamblers,


    Are there any odds on Vilnius Central (Boston)? I can't see much changing there before the GE and Mark Simmonds has done a runner. I don't usually bet but anything better than evens looks good.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    chestnut said:

    Does anyone know, is Ashcroft's latest polling just a return to the same marginals he has already been polling?

    Whatever it is, it's a poor excuse of a poll. More like a statement.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    chestnut said:

    Anushka Asthana ‏@SkyAnushka 1m

    .@LordAshcroft says if labour wins same share as last time and holds 7% of lib dems (and no sign they won't) Ed M is pm

    Ed will probably be PM if he gets 290 seats.

    All the other pollsters are telling us that Ed's 2010 vote isn't rock solid.

    Comres and Populus have Labour lost votes at 16%, Yougov have them at 19%.


    The Red Liberals seem to think more highly of Labour than it's 2010 voters do.

  • isam said:

    I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.

    Wouldn't she almost certainly lose her seat though?

    I guess she could stand elsewhere in the GE
    Hoey is 68, according to Wikipedia, so presumably she'd be retiring soon, or taking ermine. However, surely any Labour defection is far less likely than Conservative ones for the simple reason that Labour expects to win the election which is only six months away.
  • Carola said:

    You have to admire Shapps's chutzpah, calling someone out for lying.

    We are witnesses to history. Oh hold on, no. We are witnesses to the burial of bad news. Shapps's headline-friendly denunciation of Reckless -- "He lied, lied and lied again." -- will knock the Newmark nadgers off the front page.
    Surely "are you going to defect?" is a question you are supposed to lie to, like when you ask Boris if he wants to be party leader.

  • MikeK said:

    ComRes ‏@ComResPolls 9m
    Full detail of ComRes / @daily_politics poll of Conservative councillors is here http://comres.co.uk/poll/1272/bbc-sunday-politics-conservative-councillors-survey.htm

    More Tory councillors want pact with UKIP.

    Their EU question is a surprise to me. I would have expected that to be a lot more anti-EU.

    "45% of Conservative councillors say that they would vote to leave the European Union if a referendum were held tomorrow. 39% would vote to stay in the EU."
  • MikeK said:

    This bunch look like they're all expecting a genital picture message from a cabinet minister. pic.twitter.com/5vVc4fF2zO

    — Richard Horton (@iofiv) September 28, 2014
    You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.

  • MikeK said:

    This bunch look like they're all expecting a genital picture message from a cabinet minister. pic.twitter.com/5vVc4fF2zO

    — Richard Horton (@iofiv) September 28, 2014
    You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.



    Rookie mistake.

    You can do a screen shot of the pics on snap chat.

    So I have been told.
  • Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    Anushka Asthana ‏@SkyAnushka 1m

    .@LordAshcroft says if labour wins same share as last time and holds 7% of lib dems (and no sign they won't) Ed M is pm

    Ed will probably be PM if he gets 290 seats.

    All the other pollsters are telling us that Ed's 2010 vote isn't rock solid.

    Comres and Populus have Labour lost votes at 16%, Yougov have them at 19%.


    The Red Liberals seem to think more highly of Labour than it's 2010 voters do.

    Gluttons for buyer's remorse!
  • MikeK said:

    This bunch look like they're all expecting a genital picture message from a cabinet minister. pic.twitter.com/5vVc4fF2zO

    — Richard Horton (@iofiv) September 28, 2014
    You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.

    Rookie mistake.

    You can do a screen shot of the pics on snap chat.

    So I have been told.I've not yet worked out how to do a screenshot, although sometimes I do it by accident as I sometimes find a photo of my home page in all my other snaps.

  • MikeK said:

    This bunch look like they're all expecting a genital picture message from a cabinet minister. pic.twitter.com/5vVc4fF2zO

    — Richard Horton (@iofiv) September 28, 2014
    You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.

    Rookie mistake.

    You can do a screen shot of the pics on snap chat.

    So I have been told.

    Political erectness?
  • MikeK said:

    This bunch look like they're all expecting a genital picture message from a cabinet minister. pic.twitter.com/5vVc4fF2zO

    — Richard Horton (@iofiv) September 28, 2014
    You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.

    Rookie mistake.

    You can do a screen shot of the pics on snap chat.

    So I have been told.
    I've not yet worked out how to do a screenshot, although sometimes I do it by accident as I sometimes find a photo of my home page in all my other snaps.



    What phone do you have?
  • CD13 said:

    To all you professional gamblers,


    Are there any odds on Vilnius Central (Boston)? I can't see much changing there before the GE and Mark Simmonds has done a runner. I don't usually bet but anything better than evens looks good.

    Been looking for them, CD, but can't find any. Isam reckons they were 5/1 but has probably shorter now.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014
    I wonder how many marginal seats did Lord Ashcroft poll.
    I can guess that one of those 2 UKIP gains in marginal seats would be Thurrock though.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    CD13 said:

    To all you professional gamblers,


    Are there any odds on Vilnius Central (Boston)? I can't see much changing there before the GE and Mark Simmonds has done a runner. I don't usually bet but anything better than evens looks good.

    Ladbrokes priced up every constituency but have pulled them for now.

    But if UKIP really are 20 points clear, then I guess Evens will be but a dream
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    So can someone sum up Ashcrofts poll?
  • MikeK said:

    This bunch look like they're all expecting a genital picture message from a cabinet minister. pic.twitter.com/5vVc4fF2zO

    — Richard Horton (@iofiv) September 28, 2014
    You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.

    Rookie mistake.

    You can do a screen shot of the pics on snap chat.

    So I have been told.
    I've not yet worked out how to do a screenshot, although sometimes I do it by accident as I sometimes find a photo of my home page in all my other snaps.

    What phone do you have?HTC One S

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Finally some details are leaking:

    http://cnmnewz.com/conservative-party-conference-lord-ashcroft-polling-data-reveals-latest-torylabour-trends/

    "The numbers revealed that the Conservative Party is optimistic about stealing a number of high profile Liberal Democrat seats.. Constituencies such as Berwick upon Tweed, Chippenham, Somerton and Frome, St Austell and Newquay, and Wells.

    Of the seats targeted by Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party, Lord Ashcroft admitted that the Conservatives are likely to lose at least 2 seats to UKIP, but did not go into further detail. This did not factor in the Clacton and Rochester and Strood by-elections."
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Isam,

    Thanks. I'm a very cautious gambler and I've probably missed the boat now.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    isam said:

    Great Grimsby looks good... It will be funny to see the Tories smear the UKIP candidate as being a former NF supporter in the 80s etc when she was the Conservative candidate in 2010, and very nearly won!

    Yes, back to the hypocrisy and double standards against UKIP you mentioned earlier.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    edited September 2014
    @SPEEDY

    "Of the seats targeted by Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party, Lord Ashcroft admitted that the Conservatives are likely to lose at least 2 seats to UKIP, but did not go into further detail. This did not factor in the Clacton and Rochester and Strood by-elections."

    So the 13/8 >5 seats (Betfair) remains value. it seems.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    PtP,

    I blame tim.

    I could hardly believe how many people I met in Boston pubs who were intending to vote Ukip. But good 'ol tim said it was all a mirage and I assumed I was meeting an unrepresentative crowd.
  • Ninoinoz said:

    isam said:

    Great Grimsby looks good... It will be funny to see the Tories smear the UKIP candidate as being a former NF supporter in the 80s etc when she was the Conservative candidate in 2010, and very nearly won!

    Yes, back to the hypocrisy and double standards against UKIP you mentioned earlier.
    Can you repeat your comment about Maria Miller's speech to conference in 2012?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2014
    Bognor Regis and Littlehampton was in my 3rd list of possibles for UKIP

    Anecdotally when I was working at Glorious Goodwood, the locals call Bognor "Bosnia Regis"... so maybe thats worth a look
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    IOS said:

    So can someone sum up Ashcrofts poll?

    LAB 35, CON 30, UKIP 19, LD 7

    Undeciders consider:

    LAB 35, CON 31, UKIP 29, LD 22

    Favourability:

    LAB 4.34
    Cameron 4.29
    CON 4.14
    UKIP 3.78
    Miliband 3.75
    Farage 3.68
    LD 3.23
    Clegg 3.07
  • Yes, fieldwork 12-17 Sept. Lab 35, Con 30, LD 7, UKIP 19.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    MikeK said:

    This bunch look like they're all expecting a genital picture message from a cabinet minister. pic.twitter.com/5vVc4fF2zO

    — Richard Horton (@iofiv) September 28, 2014
    You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.



    I don't understand the fashion for texting and e-mailing photographs of one's genitalia.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014
    Good News, Ashcroft's national poll is large enough for subsamples to have meaning.
    Look at Scotland (sample 624):

    SNP 35
    LAB 32
    CON 17
    LD 9
    UKIP 6

    Or the Midlands (sample 1582):

    LAB 33
    CON 33
    UKIP 20
    LD 7

    Interesting, no one has discussed the prospects of UKIP in the midlands.
This discussion has been closed.