Whoever this potential Labour defector is, it's probably someone with a history of making slightly politically incorrect statements.
Alternatively, someone who is known to be euro sceptic (perhaps pro-withdrawal) in order to protect the local workforce's rights and incomes.
This lot all voted for a referendum:
Ronnie Campbell Rosie Cooper Jeremy Corbyn Jon Cruddas John Cryer Ian Davidson Natascha Engel Frank Field Roger Godsiff Kate Hoey Kelvin Hopkins Steve McCabe John McDonnell Austin Mitchell Dennis Skinner Andrew Smith Graham Stringer Gisela Stuart Mike Wood
Just been through them all and the only plausible defector is Engel.
"In his Andrew Marr interview, he promised to focus on tightening immigration rules when he attempted to renegotiate Britain's relationship with Brussels before the referendum promised by the end of 2017."
By "tightening immigration rules" does he mean actual immigration rules, or benefits rules? Because the latter isn't immigration rules and won't have any effect.
Just got £100 on at 1/2 UKIP to win Rochester by-election with my local friendly William Hill betting shop.
Can't see the price lasting long. Reckless by name maybe, but he won't have chanced his political career on this move unless he was pretty sure he will still be in Parliament after the GE. I make him a 1/5 shot, or shorter. It's not as if any of the major Parties are popular; the tide's running UKIP's way and should carry him safely home, at the by and the GE.
Not sure I agree with your thinking there, Peter. There are plenty of reasons he could have chanced his political career (not mutually exclusive, it should be noted). In addition to the face value reason - that he believes his beliefs are closer to UKIP than the Tories - and the cynical one, that he believes that UKIP will probably win the seat in 2015 and therefore has done what's necessary to ensure he's the candidate, it could be the mixed version of the two: that he believes he has next to no chance winning with the Tories, due to the intervention of UKIP, but that it could be Labour coming through the middle that does it and that at best he can save himself by defecting but even if not, he can make a gesture and statement in the process.
I have to say, I don't know the area at all and only have comments of others and electoral data and the like to go on, but I don't think I'd be following you on this one.
Saturday - David Herdson writes a a piece which says Like many a football team 2-1 up in a cup tie with ten minutes to go, a cautious defensiveness seems to have settled over the Labour Party, judging by their conference just gone
Sunday - Andrew Rawnsley writes Labour is playing like a football team hoping for a dodgy 1-0 win
"Rank in Ukip-friendly [Demograhics] list: Clacton = 1 Rotherham = 66 Thanet N = 92 Thanet S = 142 Heywood & Midd = 148 Rochester & S = 271 Eastleigh = 324"
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/516175786077081600
I don't know what criteria he uses but I'm not sure how an area where UKIP romped first in the European elections isn't in the top 250 UKIP friendly seats.
As I understand it, their book's thesis is that UKIP supporters come from distinct demographic groups.
Presumably thats not all UKIP supporters, but the most likely ones.
Just got £100 on at 1/2 UKIP to win Rochester by-election with my local friendly William Hill betting shop.
Can't see the price lasting long. Reckless by name maybe, but he won't have chanced his political career on this move unless he was pretty sure he will still be in Parliament after the GE. I make him a 1/5 shot, or shorter. It's not as if any of the major Parties are popular; the tide's running UKIP's way and should carry him safely home, at the by and the GE.
Not sure I agree with your thinking there, Peter. There are plenty of reasons he could have chanced his political career (not mutually exclusive, it should be noted). In addition to the face value reason - that he believes his beliefs are closer to UKIP than the Tories - and the cynical one, that he believes that UKIP will probably win the seat in 2015 and therefore has done what's necessary to ensure he's the candidate, it could be the mixed version of the two: that he believes he has next to no chance winning with the Tories, due to the intervention of UKIP, but that it could be Labour coming through the middle that does it and that at best he can save himself by defecting but even if not, he can make a gesture and statement in the process.
I have to say, I don't know the area at all and only have comments of others and electoral data and the like to go on, but I don't think I'd be following you on this one.
Fairy nuff, David.
Let's see whether 1/2 is still available in a few weeks time.
You missed Cleethorpes, although I don't think there are any odds available now.
And Greater Grimsby?
Yeah not sure how I missed those... maybe I forgot to look!
They both seem to fit the pattern
Great Grimsby looks good... It will be funny to see the Tories smear the UKIP candidate as being a former NF supporter in the 80s etc when she was the Conservative candidate in 2010, and very nearly won!
I doubt UKIP will take any seats off Labour in 2015, but (a) they might do it after that if Labour go into government and become unpopular, and (b) they'll be blocking Labour from ousting the Tories in a lot of traditional Con-Lab marginals.
I doubt UKIP will take any seats off Labour in 2015, but (a) they might do it after that if Labour go into government and become unpopular, and (b) they'll be blocking Labour from ousting the Tories in a lot of traditional Con-Lab marginals.
The most interesting polling of the weekend was UKIP failing to take Rotherham.
I doubt UKIP will take any seats off Labour in 2015, but (a) they might do it after that if Labour go into government and become unpopular, and (b) they'll be blocking Labour from ousting the Tories in a lot of traditional Con-Lab marginals.
Labour held 11 seats in Kent and Essex prior to 2010. If UKIP now lock them out of those seats, their path to victory is much narrower.
I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.
Wouldn't she almost certainly lose her seat though?
I guess she could stand elsewhere in the GE
She would definitely lose her seat. But she has never given the impression of being comfortable as a Labour MP. Maybe she'd go to the Lords as a UKIP peer?
Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.
Some of us have plans today.
Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...
Opinium and ICM are always late, don't expect them before tomorrow. I always have to put them on the Wikipedia page with a link to the newspaper article rather than the tables... although, give the Guardian and Observer their due, they always publish the fieldwork dates and number of respondents, which very few papers do.
Mark Pritchard @MPritchardMP The deluded. dull, dalek-like Doncaster diatribe from Mark Reckless is a fantastical betrayal of his constituents, helpers, and colleagues
Darren McCaffrey @DMcCaffreySKY Extraordinary scenes under heat from hostile press and local Tories Farage and Reckless have done a runner from Rochester centre. Video soon
Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie Mark Reckless is now being accompanied by a bodyguard down Rochester high street. He clearly doesn't view it a safe seat #c4news Retweeted by Michael Crick
The odds are in the thread header... Fill yer boots!
If the Tories choose a plausible candidate then I will. But get ready my friend for the tons of manure that'll be poured over Mr Reckless in the coming weeks.
This is so unlike Carsewll for whom I have a great respect
(To OGH) Oh are you TCPoliticalBetting? ....... Spell his name correctly if you respect him so much!
isam you are a berk to attack OGH over a spelling. I am honoured to be thought of as OGH - even though we have radically different political beliefs.
Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.
Some of us have plans today.
Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...
Opinium and ICM are always late, don't expect them before tomorrow. I always have to put them on the Wikipedia page with a link to the newspaper article rather than the tables... although, give the Guardian and Observer their due, they always publish the fieldwork dates and number of respondents, which very few papers do.
Opinium published their indyref poll tables simultaneously as the newspapers published the figures.
"In his Andrew Marr interview, he promised to focus on tightening immigration rules when he attempted to renegotiate Britain's relationship with Brussels before the referendum promised by the end of 2017."
By "tightening immigration rules" does he mean actual immigration rules, or benefits rules? Because the latter isn't immigration rules and won't have any effect.
Look, on such matters Cameron relies on policies drawn up by Letwin. Enough said? Yes Cameron lacks a set of fundamental principles - something that a part time study of economics brings in a PPE degree. Unfortunately the main alternative, Miliband, is so dire I fear the economic damage his period in office will bring. At least with Cameron the damage is more easily repairable.
Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.
Some of us have plans today.
Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...
Opinium and ICM are always late, don't expect them before tomorrow. I always have to put them on the Wikipedia page with a link to the newspaper article rather than the tables... although, give the Guardian and Observer their due, they always publish the fieldwork dates and number of respondents, which very few papers do.
Cool, so it's you who put the latest polls on Wiki? Thanks very much for that.
I would present this week's ELBOW right now, but need the Ashcroft headlines %-ages, and his sample sizes, as well as Opinium's sample sizes.
Whoever this potential Labour defector is, it's probably someone with a history of making slightly politically incorrect statements.
We'll find the next defector soon it seems:
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 59m "When's the Prime Minister's speech?" Nigel Farage teases, when I ask him whether & when we'll hear of more defections to Ukip
The Tories should do a last minute timing change, and swap Cameron's speech around with another high profile one.
Whoever this potential Labour defector is, it's probably someone with a history of making slightly politically incorrect statements.
Alternatively, someone who is known to be euro sceptic (perhaps pro-withdrawal) in order to protect the local workforce's rights and incomes.
This lot all voted for a referendum:
Ronnie Campbell Rosie Cooper Jeremy Corbyn Jon Cruddas John Cryer Ian Davidson Natascha Engel Frank Field Roger Godsiff Kate Hoey Kelvin Hopkins Steve McCabe John McDonnell Austin Mitchell Dennis Skinner Andrew Smith Graham Stringer Gisela Stuart Mike Wood
Just been through them all and the only plausible defector is Engel.
Why not an outgoing MP with nothing to lose? Austin Mitchell?
Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.
Some of us have plans today.
Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...
Opinium and ICM are always late, don't expect them before tomorrow. I always have to put them on the Wikipedia page with a link to the newspaper article rather than the tables... although, give the Guardian and Observer their due, they always publish the fieldwork dates and number of respondents, which very few papers do.
Cool, so it's you who put the latest polls on Wiki? Thanks very much for that.
Well, I'm just one of them. Anyone can do it... yesterday's Opinium and ComRes went up as soon as TSE posted them here. Someone else did YouGov. If there is a VI in the ashcroft poll, it will go up toot sweet.
Ferfuxsake Lord Ashcroft, publish your damn polling.
Some of us have plans today.
Opinium tables....must have Opinium tables...
Opinium and ICM are always late, don't expect them before tomorrow. I always have to put them on the Wikipedia page with a link to the newspaper article rather than the tables... although, give the Guardian and Observer their due, they always publish the fieldwork dates and number of respondents, which very few papers do.
Opinium published their indyref poll tables simultaneously as the newspapers published the figures.
Whoever this potential Labour defector is, it's probably someone with a history of making slightly politically incorrect statements.
We'll find the next defector soon it seems:
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 59m "When's the Prime Minister's speech?" Nigel Farage teases, when I ask him whether & when we'll hear of more defections to Ukip
The Tories should do a last minute timing change, and swap Cameron's speech around with another high profile one.
God! You lot are jittery.
Err, I'm neither a member nor a worker lackey.
Makes little difference to me - fun and games to watch though, playing Farage at his own game.
Lab-SNP coalition next May? Would make the 2016 Scottish election more interesting, and the SNP "B" team could find themselves in cabinet positions!
On a practical basis, it is hard to see the SNP voting against a Labour government too often. And, of course, if Labour wins most seats but loses seats in Scotland the likelihood is that it will have come first in England.
You have to admire Shapps's chutzpah, calling someone out for lying.
We are witnesses to history. Oh hold on, no. We are witnesses to the burial of bad news. Shapps's headline-friendly denunciation of Reckless -- "He lied, lied and lied again." -- will knock the Newmark nadgers off the front page.
You have to admire Shapps's chutzpah, calling someone out for lying.
We are witnesses to history. Oh hold on, no. We are witnesses to the burial of bad news. Shapps's headline-friendly denunciation of Reckless -- "He lied, lied and lied again." -- will knock the Newmark nadgers off the front page.
Isn't that a straight knock off of what the Guardian said about Aitken? Or have I misremembered?
I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.
Wouldn't she almost certainly lose her seat though?
I guess she could stand elsewhere in the GE
She would definitely lose her seat. But she has never given the impression of being comfortable as a Labour MP. Maybe she'd go to the Lords as a UKIP peer?
Mark Pritchard @MPritchardMP The deluded. dull, dalek-like Doncaster diatribe from Mark Reckless is a fantastical betrayal of his constituents, helpers, and colleagues
Darren McCaffrey @DMcCaffreySKY Extraordinary scenes under heat from hostile press and local Tories Farage and Reckless have done a runner from Rochester centre. Video soon
Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie Mark Reckless is now being accompanied by a bodyguard down Rochester high street. He clearly doesn't view it a safe seat #c4news Retweeted by Michael Crick
The odds are in the thread header... Fill yer boots!
If the Tories choose a plausible candidate then I will. But get ready my friend for the tons of manure that'll be poured over Mr Reckless in the coming weeks.
This is so unlike Carsewll for whom I have a great respect
(To OGH) Oh are you TCPoliticalBetting? ....... Spell his name correctly if you respect him so much!
isam you are a berk to attack OGH over a spelling. I am honoured to be thought of as OGH - even though we have radically different political beliefs.
Hardly an attack!!
I am just fighting pettiness with pettiness.. shame on me really
Are there any odds on Vilnius Central (Boston)? I can't see much changing there before the GE and Mark Simmonds has done a runner. I don't usually bet but anything better than evens looks good.
I would not be surprised to see Kate Hoey move to UKIP.
Wouldn't she almost certainly lose her seat though?
I guess she could stand elsewhere in the GE
Hoey is 68, according to Wikipedia, so presumably she'd be retiring soon, or taking ermine. However, surely any Labour defection is far less likely than Conservative ones for the simple reason that Labour expects to win the election which is only six months away.
You have to admire Shapps's chutzpah, calling someone out for lying.
We are witnesses to history. Oh hold on, no. We are witnesses to the burial of bad news. Shapps's headline-friendly denunciation of Reckless -- "He lied, lied and lied again." -- will knock the Newmark nadgers off the front page.
Surely "are you going to defect?" is a question you are supposed to lie to, like when you ask Boris if he wants to be party leader.
Their EU question is a surprise to me. I would have expected that to be a lot more anti-EU.
"45% of Conservative councillors say that they would vote to leave the European Union if a referendum were held tomorrow. 39% would vote to stay in the EU."
You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.
Rookie mistake.
You can do a screen shot of the pics on snap chat.
So I have been told.I've not yet worked out how to do a screenshot, although sometimes I do it by accident as I sometimes find a photo of my home page in all my other snaps.
You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.
Rookie mistake.
You can do a screen shot of the pics on snap chat.
So I have been told.
I've not yet worked out how to do a screenshot, although sometimes I do it by accident as I sometimes find a photo of my home page in all my other snaps.
Are there any odds on Vilnius Central (Boston)? I can't see much changing there before the GE and Mark Simmonds has done a runner. I don't usually bet but anything better than evens looks good.
Been looking for them, CD, but can't find any. Isam reckons they were 5/1 but has probably shorter now.
Are there any odds on Vilnius Central (Boston)? I can't see much changing there before the GE and Mark Simmonds has done a runner. I don't usually bet but anything better than evens looks good.
Ladbrokes priced up every constituency but have pulled them for now.
But if UKIP really are 20 points clear, then I guess Evens will be but a dream
You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.
Rookie mistake.
You can do a screen shot of the pics on snap chat.
So I have been told.
I've not yet worked out how to do a screenshot, although sometimes I do it by accident as I sometimes find a photo of my home page in all my other snaps.
"The numbers revealed that the Conservative Party is optimistic about stealing a number of high profile Liberal Democrat seats.. Constituencies such as Berwick upon Tweed, Chippenham, Somerton and Frome, St Austell and Newquay, and Wells.
Of the seats targeted by Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party, Lord Ashcroft admitted that the Conservatives are likely to lose at least 2 seats to UKIP, but did not go into further detail. This did not factor in the Clacton and Rochester and Strood by-elections."
Great Grimsby looks good... It will be funny to see the Tories smear the UKIP candidate as being a former NF supporter in the 80s etc when she was the Conservative candidate in 2010, and very nearly won!
Yes, back to the hypocrisy and double standards against UKIP you mentioned earlier.
"Of the seats targeted by Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party, Lord Ashcroft admitted that the Conservatives are likely to lose at least 2 seats to UKIP, but did not go into further detail. This did not factor in the Clacton and Rochester and Strood by-elections."
So the 13/8 >5 seats (Betfair) remains value. it seems.
I could hardly believe how many people I met in Boston pubs who were intending to vote Ukip. But good 'ol tim said it was all a mirage and I assumed I was meeting an unrepresentative crowd.
Great Grimsby looks good... It will be funny to see the Tories smear the UKIP candidate as being a former NF supporter in the 80s etc when she was the Conservative candidate in 2010, and very nearly won!
Yes, back to the hypocrisy and double standards against UKIP you mentioned earlier.
Can you repeat your comment about Maria Miller's speech to conference in 2012?
Comments
Just been through them all and the only plausible defector is Engel.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wales_(European_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2014/09/22/the-electoral-state-of-the-parties-5-ukip/
"In his Andrew Marr interview, he promised to focus on tightening immigration rules when he attempted to renegotiate Britain's relationship with Brussels before the referendum promised by the end of 2017."
By "tightening immigration rules" does he mean actual immigration rules, or benefits rules? Because the latter isn't immigration rules and won't have any effect.
I have to say, I don't know the area at all and only have comments of others and electoral data and the like to go on, but I don't think I'd be following you on this one.
Sunday - Andrew Rawnsley writes Labour is playing like a football team hoping for a dodgy 1-0 win
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/28/ed-miliband-flat-and-uninspiring-labour-conference
You missed Cleethorpes, although I don't think there are any odds available now.
And Greater Grimsby?
Presumably thats not all UKIP supporters, but the most likely ones.
http://youtu.be/e3L-aBgNL1w
Some of us have plans today.
Let's see whether 1/2 is still available in a few weeks time.
They both seem to fit the pattern
Great Grimsby looks good... It will be funny to see the Tories smear the UKIP candidate as being a former NF supporter in the 80s etc when she was the Conservative candidate in 2010, and very nearly won!
I guess she could stand elsewhere in the GE
Lord Ashcroft's snapshot polling is showing:
CON and LAB to gain 8 LDEM seats apiece. CON to lose 24 seats to LAB and 2 to UKIP.
Kiran Stacey @kiranstacey · 23m
Verdict from @LordAshcroft: from results he has from marginals, looks like Lab heading for a majority. #CPC14
I am honoured to be thought of as OGH - even though we have radically different political beliefs.
I would present this week's ELBOW right now, but need the Ashcroft headlines %-ages, and his sample sizes, as well as Opinium's sample sizes.
.@LordAshcroft says if labour wins same share as last time and holds 7% of lib dems (and no sign they won't) Ed M is pm
Full detail of ComRes / @daily_politics poll of Conservative councillors is here http://comres.co.uk/poll/1272/bbc-sunday-politics-conservative-councillors-survey.htm …
More Tory councillors want pact with UKIP.
Makes little difference to me - fun and games to watch though, playing Farage at his own game.
New poll today for Sunday Mirror / @IndyOnSunday
Cons: 29% (-3)
Lab: 35% (+1)
LibDem: 7% (-1)
UKIP: 19% (+1)
Green: 4% (+1)
O: 6% (+1)
Interesting foto of man with small bugle, trying to drown out Farage and Reckless in pub?
All the other pollsters are telling us that Ed's 2010 vote isn't rock solid.
Comres and Populus have Labour lost votes at 16%, Yougov have them at 19%.
[whack]
"We've been betrayed", sez the Shapps man.
I am just fighting pettiness with pettiness.. shame on me really
Are there any odds on Vilnius Central (Boston)? I can't see much changing there before the GE and Mark Simmonds has done a runner. I don't usually bet but anything better than evens looks good.
"45% of Conservative councillors say that they would vote to leave the European Union if a referendum were held tomorrow. 39% would vote to stay in the EU."
Rookie mistake.
You can do a screen shot of the pics on snap chat.
So I have been told.
You can do a screen shot of the pics on snap chat.
So I have been told.I've not yet worked out how to do a screenshot, although sometimes I do it by accident as I sometimes find a photo of my home page in all my other snaps.
You can do a screen shot of the pics on snap chat.
So I have been told.
Political erectness?
What phone do you have?
I can guess that one of those 2 UKIP gains in marginal seats would be Thurrock though.
But if UKIP really are 20 points clear, then I guess Evens will be but a dream
http://cnmnewz.com/conservative-party-conference-lord-ashcroft-polling-data-reveals-latest-torylabour-trends/
"The numbers revealed that the Conservative Party is optimistic about stealing a number of high profile Liberal Democrat seats.. Constituencies such as Berwick upon Tweed, Chippenham, Somerton and Frome, St Austell and Newquay, and Wells.
Of the seats targeted by Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party, Lord Ashcroft admitted that the Conservatives are likely to lose at least 2 seats to UKIP, but did not go into further detail. This did not factor in the Clacton and Rochester and Strood by-elections."
Thanks. I'm a very cautious gambler and I've probably missed the boat now.
"Of the seats targeted by Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party, Lord Ashcroft admitted that the Conservatives are likely to lose at least 2 seats to UKIP, but did not go into further detail. This did not factor in the Clacton and Rochester and Strood by-elections."
So the 13/8 >5 seats (Betfair) remains value. it seems.
I blame tim.
I could hardly believe how many people I met in Boston pubs who were intending to vote Ukip. But good 'ol tim said it was all a mirage and I assumed I was meeting an unrepresentative crowd.
Anecdotally when I was working at Glorious Goodwood, the locals call Bognor "Bosnia Regis"... so maybe thats worth a look
Undeciders consider:
LAB 35, CON 31, UKIP 29, LD 22
Favourability:
LAB 4.34
Cameron 4.29
CON 4.14
UKIP 3.78
Miliband 3.75
Farage 3.68
LD 3.23
Clegg 3.07
I don't understand the fashion for texting and e-mailing photographs of one's genitalia.
Look at Scotland (sample 624):
SNP 35
LAB 32
CON 17
LD 9
UKIP 6
Or the Midlands (sample 1582):
LAB 33
CON 33
UKIP 20
LD 7
Interesting, no one has discussed the prospects of UKIP in the midlands.