The idea that the SNP are going to lose seats to the Tories fails to spot the obvious e.g Angus Robertson won Moray with 39% of the vote in 2010. The Yes vote was "only" 42 % in the Referendum.
That is not the basis on which Robertson will be defeated in a multi-party election, unless you think the second placed Tory will persuade all the Labour & LibDem voters to support them. No way will that happen at the present time in Scotland.
What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
It will not be to the Tories , that is for sure. Their leader is crap , now being interviewed by police for knowing postal votes early. Tories still toxic, Labour and LD's hated and Support for non BT parties exploding.
So you are suggesting that only she knew of these 'tallies'? Whatever all that entailed? Only she, some numpty tory, was involved? Whatever happened it involved more than the tory party. And really before OGH gets sued what do you mean by 'knowing postal votes early'? Please make clear that you are not accusing Davidson of tampering with votes or counting them.
Indeed it might be an idea to make clear just what is the proceedure for postal votes and who is present when they are opened. For instance I understand that while staff are required by law to keep ballot papers face down when they are opened (just how is that managed?) there may be occasions when the face of the paper is visible. Are you suggesting only tory officials were in the rooms when these ballots were opened? No SNP officials?
The wording used by Ruth Davidson is surprising and unwise but I posted on here several times that BT were doing extremely well on postal votes. My canvassing showed we were getting a very significant majority.
In my opinion this was for a number of reasons. Firstly, by far the largest users of postal votes were the old who voted overwhelmingly no. Secondly, I think Yes supporters were much more minded to vote on what they believed was going to be an historic day than merely popping something in the post a week or so beforehand.
So I would be astonished if Ruth Davidson did not have canvassing information both from personal visits and even more so from telephone calls indicating a strong no turnout in the postal votes. The idea that anyone had access to the actual ballots is incredibly far fetched.
Clearly the much vaunted healing process hasn't exactly got underway yet.
quite the opposite , until the vow is delivered and home rule in place it will not go away.
Anyone know if the Opinium tables have been released? And will his Lordship release His tables at 2pm then?
What is ELBOW saying ? A huge swing to Labour after Miliband fluffed his lines ?
It may be skewed by Opinium's narrow Lab lead! But at the moment Con/LD down, Lab/UKIP up on last week. Lab lead also up - but like I said need Opinium's sample numbers to confirm.
Also, Lord Sunil, the Sunil on Sunday's proprietor and headline-finder pursuivant, has just issued the editorial team with a directive to include all polls with field-work completed on a Sunday (or later) to be included in the following week's ELBOW.
So we've had to add the ICM from 10th August, and shift a bunch of other polls about.
The resulting ELBOWs (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) for the weeks ending 17th Aug to 21st Sep are as follows:
Aug 17th: Lab 36.2, Con 33.2, UKIP 13.1, LD 8.8 - Lab lead 3.0 Aug 24th: Lab 37.1, Con 33.5, UKIP 13.0, LD 8.5 - Lab lead 3.6 Aug 31st: Lab 36.0, Con 32.2, UKIP 14.5, LD 7.8 - Lab lead 3.8 Sep 7th: Lab 35.8, Con 32.5, UKIP 14.9, LD 7.6 - Lab lead 3.3 Sep 14th: Lab 36.0, Con 31.3, UKIP 15.6, LD 7.6 - Lab lead 4.6 Sep 21st: Lab 35.6, Con 32.4, UKIP 13.7, LD 8.3 - Lab lead 3.2
It's not really being mentioned but the Lib Dems are currently level with the Greens on YouGov. How much longer can this go on. That amounts to nearly 3/4 of their 2010 vote disappearing. Do they just not care?
As a former Lib/LD activist this is something I just don’t understand. It’s bad enough just watching what’s happening; it I was still involved I’d be tearing myself in bits trying to work it out!
It’s as though, since they joined the Coalition ....... I didn’t like it, but recognised it as the only viable means of a Government ......just about everything that could possibly go wrong has! And the as Frank Booth says, the leadership, at the top anyway, just doesn’t seem to care. Sarah Teather at least has the good grace to show her embarrassment but to listen to the likes of Clegg and Danny Alexander you would think that “I’d be all right on the night”!
Apart from Eastleigh and a few council by-elections, to be fair, it hasn’t been!
Everything in Rochester depends on the CON candidate choice. The blues need someone who can appeal to LAN and LD cross-overs - not a Mark Reckless lookalike.
Why should Lab and LD give a stuff whether it's Tory or Ukip? I really cannot understand those tempted to vote tactically for the Tories. Ukip may be worse but they're in a position to do precisely nothing.
Conversation on this site may lead you to think that only Tory establishment types hate UKIP, but actually there's a perception among quite a lot of people that they're BNP-lite.
Only among dyed-in-the-wool lefties.
No, I think sadly the impression is far wider spread than that. That's the damage a cynically mendacious media campaign can produce. If you read a faintly nasty story about UKIP supporters/politicians, and have nothing to set that against, that quickly becomes your opinion. And an opinion, once set, is pretty much impossible to shift.
So as I thought the Mirror went on a massive fishing exercise among horny Tory MPs. I would be shocked if the minister who resigned is the only one they have caught in their net.
I would have thought if you tweeted all the male MPs with flirty message and perhaps some dirty pictures, you would get a hell of a lot more than one willing to play ball.
They have form for this. I seemed to remember they tried similar things in previous years.
But when will public figures learn? Phone hacking, Snowdon, iCloud celeb hack, if you put something on the internet somewhere, there is a chance if you are a public figure that somebody will try and get hold of it.
What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
It will not be to the Tories , that is for sure. Their leader is crap , now being interviewed by police for knowing postal votes early. Tories still toxic, Labour and LD's hated and Support for non BT parties exploding.
So you are suggesting that only she knew of these 'tallies'? Whatever all that entailed? Only she, some numpty tory, was involved? Whatever happened it involved more than the tory party. And really before OGH gets sued what do you mean by 'knowing postal votes early'? Please make clear that you are not accusing Davidson of tampering with votes or counting them.
Indeed it might be an idea to make clear just what is the proceedure for postal votes and who is present when they are opened. For instance I understand that while staff are required by law to keep ballot papers face down when they are opened (just how is that managed?) there may be occasions when the face of the paper is visible. Are you suggesting only tory officials were in the rooms when these ballots were opened? No SNP officials?
You are still as thick as ever I see. I merely stated what is is all the newspapers , she stated it on national TV you stupid clown. Police are investigating how people knew postal ballots numbers based on her stating it on national TV.
So far there are no reports of SNP officials stating the postal ballot numbers on national TV 45 minutes after count started. I will let you know if I hear anything on that however.
Mr Moderator, I see his Spanish sojourn hasn’t tempered malcolmg’s language. I often think someone posting here is a "stupid clown” or worse, but I really don’t think it’s appropriate to post it.
@FrancisUrquhart Government ministers, and MP's in general cannot complain when the same, (and more) are used by their agencies on the general public?
I think any public figure is very stupid to do anything like this. Given what we know, it isn't just the Mirror sniffing around, I bet the Chinese and the Russians have hard drives full of comprising material of leading western figures.
What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
It will not be to the Tories , that is for sure. Their leader is crap , now being interviewed by police for knowing postal votes early. Tories still toxic, Labour and LD's hated and Support for non BT parties exploding.
So you are suggesting that only she knew of these 'tallies'? Whatever all that entailed? Only she, some numpty tory, was involved? Whatever happened it involved more than the tory party. And really before OGH gets sued what do you mean by 'knowing postal votes early'? Please make clear that you are not accusing Davidson of tampering with votes or counting them.
Indeed it might be an idea to make clear just what is the proceedure for postal votes and who is present when they are opened. For instance I understand that while staff are required by law to keep ballot papers face down when they are opened (just how is that managed?) there may be occasions when the face of the paper is visible. Are you suggesting only tory officials were in the rooms when these ballots were opened? No SNP officials?
You are still as thick as ever I see. I merely stated what is is all the newspapers , she stated it on national TV you stupid clown. Police are investigating how people knew postal ballots numbers based on her stating it on national TV.
So far there are no reports of SNP officials stating the postal ballot numbers on national TV 45 minutes after count started. I will let you know if I hear anything on that however.
While I have sympathy for anyone who gets caught in a sting operation by the press, you have to think of the obvious? If the press can trick them that easily, what could a truly malicious professional outfit do to them?
Cameron wouldn't have resigned if there had been a Yes vote:
"I just don't think(resigning would have been) the right thing to do. The job of the United Kingdom Prime Minister, whatever the outcome, would be to knuckle down and get on with the job. It would not have been doing your duty."
MalcolmG The SNP will pick up a few Glasgow seats from Labour they hold at Holyrood and some urban areas that vote Yes, however many rural SNP seats voted No and used to be Tory, that offers an opportunity for Scottish Tories
I said on a much earlier thread that I think the No activism was good news for Tartan Tories who've been lurking at SNPers for a long while.
IIRC there were about 20% No voters who claim to be SNP. And with the Union winning, I could see those Tartan Tories being more self-confident than before.
Maybe @DavidL et al could comment here. I find it fascinating that we've got several Scottish Tories on here - yet no SLabers.
What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
While I have sympathy for anyone who gets caught in a sting operation by the press, you have to think of the obvious? If the press can trick them that easily, what could a truly malicious professional outfit do to them?
Today's Top Tip: If you must take selfies of your private parts don't send them over internet however hard it might be.
FPT If Labour is truly to form a Government in 2015, then the 8/1 on them is where the money is. They should be coming through the middle of a hopelessly split Tory/UKIP vote - something like 35%-30%-30%...... A failure by Labour shows just how much UKIP is hurting them too.
I don't think the Tories would entirely mind Labour winning this one. It will provide a useful demonstration of how a split vote on the right benefits Miliband.
I have two separate family members and a number of friends living in the constituency so I will be keeping my ear on the ground.
The wording used by Ruth Davidson is surprising and unwise but I posted on here several times that BT were doing extremely well on postal votes. My canvassing showed we were getting a very significant majority.
In my opinion this was for a number of reasons. Firstly, by far the largest users of postal votes were the old who voted overwhelmingly no. Secondly, I think Yes supporters were much more minded to vote on what they believed was going to be an historic day than merely popping something in the post a week or so beforehand.
So I would be astonished if Ruth Davidson did not have canvassing information both from personal visits and even more so from telephone calls indicating a strong no turnout in the postal votes. The idea that anyone had access to the actual ballots is incredibly far fetched.
Clearly the much vaunted healing process hasn't exactly got underway yet.
Quite the opposite I would say. Scottish politics will not be the same again.
While I have sympathy for anyone who gets caught in a sting operation by the press, you have to think of the obvious? If the press can trick them that easily, what could a truly malicious professional outfit do to them?
Today's Top Tip: If you must take selfies of your private parts don't send them over internet however hard it might be.
While I have sympathy for anyone who gets caught in a sting operation by the press, you have to think of the obvious? If the press can trick them that easily, what could a truly malicious professional outfit do to them?
No sympathy , he is obviously not very bright and unbelievable that someone as stupid as this can be a government minister , shows they do not get there based on talent.
MalcolmG The SNP will pick up a few Glasgow seats from Labour they hold at Holyrood and some urban areas that vote Yes, however many rural SNP seats voted No and used to be Tory, that offers an opportunity for Scottish Tories
It's not really being mentioned but the Lib Dems are currently level with the Greens on YouGov. How much longer can this go on. That amounts to nearly 3/4 of their 2010 vote disappearing. Do they just not care?
The Lib Dems are doing what is right for the Country regardless of the consequences for their party.
Given the German coalition experience, it has always been known that the minority party in a coalition government would lose support. In Germany the minority coalition partner lost all its seats in a subsequent election.
The biggest problem for Lib Dems and all parties is that the voters don't recognise the seriousness of the problem with government finances. Electors are used to being told that government spending will be increased and taxes lowered.
Well the country's debt levels are now getting close to being unsustainable and borrowing to cover the continuing massive £100bn deficit and refinancing maturing debt is going to get much harder.
Only when the extent of the government debt position is fully recognised by voters as a crisis will the Lib Dems selfless attitude be properly recognised. That does not mean the Lib Dems will ultimately be rewarded. See how badly Churchill was rewarded for his war efforts in the 1945 election that he lost.
I said on a much earlier thread that I think the No activism was good news for Tartan Tories who've been lurking at SNPers for a long while.
IIRC there were about 20% No voters who claim to be SNP. And with the Union winning, I could see those Tartan Tories being more self-confident than before.
Maybe @DavidL et al could comment here. I find it fascinating that we've got several Scottish Tories on here - yet no SLabers.
What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
I did comment downthread Plato. I can see 3 gains with an outside chance of a fourth popping up somewhere. I also think Labour are going to lose a raft of seats in Glasgow and Lanark to the SNP which will be partially offset by the odd gain from the Lib Dems who are everyone's lunch.
So looks like Cameron is going to make a huge mistake for the Tories in saying that he will, in effect, campaign for a No vote in a referendum. This will effectively mean that the Tories elect a better off outer after the general election.
A piousness policy that will sit around the necks of the Tories for at least a general election.
The wife of Nigel Farage yesterday barred The Telegraph from a Ukip fringe meeting instructing MEPs how to secure taxpayer-funded holidays for their friends and supporters.
While I have sympathy for anyone who gets caught in a sting operation by the press, you have to think of the obvious? If the press can trick them that easily, what could a truly malicious professional outfit do to them?
No sympathy , he is obviously not very bright and unbelievable that someone as stupid as this can be a government minister , shows they do not get there based on talent.
Of course they don´t. A lot of them seem to get there purely based on the demographic they want to appeal too. Normally falls flat but there you go.
MalcolmG While the SNP will likely make net gains next year and win over left-wing Labour voters who voted Yes (even the PQ/BQ in Quebec won most votes in Quebec the election after losing indy referendums), do not forgot a few voters who have voted SNP in rural areas for many years will have voted No in the likes of Angus and Perth and used to be Tory voters, that is where the Tories targets would be
While I have sympathy for anyone who gets caught in a sting operation by the press, you have to think of the obvious? If the press can trick them that easily, what could a truly malicious professional outfit do to them?
No sympathy , he is obviously not very bright and unbelievable that someone as stupid as this can be a government minister , shows they do not get there based on talent.
When I was at the Home Office it was noticed that there was a strong tendency for men in certain certain branches of government to suffer from a condition known as Caprinosity. The disease is easily described - their bollocks become bigger than their brain. It is of course not unknown in the private sector but is most commonly found in those parts of the public sector where people have some relationship to power over others, such as MPs, the police (where it is endemic), the murkier by ways of the Civil Service and so forth. I see from today's news papers that the RC Bishop of Arundel has just been disclosed as a sufferer.
Since it is Sunday. If GCHQ were for some reason to read this blog, and (only in theory) had an agent provocateur..... Who would it be? Edit, no names, just the general characteristics
As a denizen of Eastbourne, I'll be out campaigning for the Blue Team. We've got a lot of Kippers and immigrants now here.
I haven't done this since 1987. Lewes is a funny place, like Bath. I think the LDs will retain it, but that's just a hunch based on my local knowledge and that many men dress like Uncle Bulgaria...
I think the Scottish seats in the next election will be a surprise to some. Clearly the SNP are eating into the Labour vote for much the same reason as UKIP are south of the border.
However most SNP seats are in what was originally Tory territory. Places like Perth and Angus. With the tories in the doldrums, people there seem to have tactically voted SNP to keep Labour out. However after the antics of the referendum I don't think that will be happening again.
Similarly the Liberal seats are also rural and often ex tory historically.
Going seat by seat, these are the seats that could go tory
Aberdeen South: Tories 7,000 behind SNP. However Libdems got 12,000 votes. Angus: Tories 3,200 behind SNP Argyll and Bute: Tories 3,500 behind LD Banff and Buchan: Tories 4,000 behind SNP Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Tories 5,800 behind LD Edinburgh West: Tories 5,900 behind LD Moray: Tories 5,800 behind SNP Perth and North Perthshire: Tories 4,300 behind SNP. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine: Tories 3,600 behind LD
Add in the fact that the demographics make it inevitable that about 20 LD seats at places like Eastbourne, Lewes, Mid Dorset, Someton and Frome, Taunton, North Norfolk, you could get a situation where:
Labour win 30 tory (20) and Liberal Seats (10) but lose 10 seats to SNP in Scotland, gain one from green, lose one to Respect. Net gain 20 = 278 seats
Tory win 30 seats of libs and SNP but lose 20 seats to Labour and 10 to UKIP = 306 seats (no change)
Lib lose 25 to tory, 10 to labour and 5 to SNP. = 17 seats
SNP = lose 5 to tory gain 10 from labour and 5 from LD = 16 seats
UKIP = 10 seats
DUP = 8 Seats
SF = 5
PC = 3
SDLP = 3
Alliance = 1
Speaker = 1
Sylvia Hernon = 1
Respect = 1
Total number of seats = 650. Real number of Seats = 644 as Speaker and SF do not vote.
Therefore 322 needed for Majority rather than 326.
306 tory + 10 UKIP + 8 DUP + Sylvia Hernon = 325
If Tories depose Bercow and elect a speaker from another party = 326
= Tory minority government with supply and confidence from above until another election in about 18 months, possibly longer as the left is so fragmented over 7 parties (8 including SF)
While I have sympathy for anyone who gets caught in a sting operation by the press, you have to think of the obvious? If the press can trick them that easily, what could a truly malicious professional outfit do to them?
Today's Top Tip: If you must take selfies of your private parts don't send them over internet however hard it might be.
It's not really being mentioned but the Lib Dems are currently level with the Greens on YouGov. How much longer can this go on. That amounts to nearly 3/4 of their 2010 vote disappearing. Do they just not care?
The Lib Dems are doing what is right for the Country regardless of the consequences for their party.
Given the German coalition experience, it has always been known that the minority party in a coalition government would lose support. In Germany the minority coalition partner lost all its seats in a subsequent election.
The biggest problem for Lib Dems and all parties is that the voters don't recognise the seriousness of the problem with government finances. Electors are used to being told that government spending will be increased and taxes lowered.
Well the country's debt levels are now getting close to being unsustainable and borrowing to cover the continuing massive £100bn deficit and refinancing maturing debt is going to get much harder.
Only when the extent of the government debt position is fully recognised by voters as a crisis will the Lib Dems selfless attitude be properly recognised. That does not mean the Lib Dems will ultimately be rewarded. See how badly Churchill was rewarded for his war efforts in the 1945 election that he lost.
You may well be right, Mr. Evershed. Would it not therefore have have been a good idea for the Lib Dems to have spent the past four years shouting about how ghastly the UK's financial position actually is (and it really is awful in my view) and pushing their coalition partners to do more about it?
I am afraid that the Lib Dems have not performed well in government and not done taken the opportunities that coalition offered them. Their likely punishment next May will be well deserved.
Malcolm G Parties often claim they are ahead on postal votes at by elections etc, sharp eyed activists can often see where the crosses are being put through the ballot paper at verification, not technically illegal
The facts do speak for themselves, with 16 of Italy's 20 regions - from the north to the south of the country - currently under investigation for the misappropriation of public funds worth around 60 million euros.
More than half of the population are currently employed by the government - doing sometimes entirely pointless and deeply spurious jobs.
Ways of cheating the system seem positively encouraged, and the cost of tax evasion is estimated at anything up to 275 billion euros a year.
@Blueberry The how did The Mirror get the pictures aspect is interesting. What are the odds of finding a Government minister willing to post photos in his pyjamas to a complete stranger, must be akin to Scottish panda pregnancies.
There might be more in this story, than meets the eye.
It sounds as if it was going on for some months, with the 'lady' contacting several MPs. You can imagine conversations going on for some time, until the fateful tweet is sent from one of them.
It's yet another example of Cameron's adage being correct: too many tweets making a tw@t.
No doubt the Mirror are pleased to take attention away from their admitted guilt in hacking. its a mystery why we do not have Mirror editors in jail rather than trying to sting MPs.
But this is the press which sees itself aboove the law and demand the right to police themselves.
Like British Muslims? (Sharia, planning permission, FGM, etc.)
IOS Not quite what he said, his actual statement on renegotiation '"If I don't achieve that it will be for the British public to decide whether to stay in or get out," he said.
But he added: "I have said this all my political life: if I thought that it wasn't in Britain's interest to be in the European Union, I wouldn't argue for us to be in it." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29398973
I said on a much earlier thread that I think the No activism was good news for Tartan Tories who've been lurking at SNPers for a long while.
IIRC there were about 20% No voters who claim to be SNP. And with the Union winning, I could see those Tartan Tories being more self-confident than before.
Maybe @DavidL et al could comment here. I find it fascinating that we've got several Scottish Tories on here - yet no SLabers.
What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
I did comment downthread Plato. I can see 3 gains with an outside chance of a fourth popping up somewhere. I also think Labour are going to lose a raft of seats in Glasgow and Lanark to the SNP which will be partially offset by the odd gain from the Lib Dems who are everyone's lunch.
Carlotta Indeed, I campaigned for Brooks in 2001 in Braintree, on a personal level I found him very pleasant, he has made an error of judgement, done the honourable thing and resigned. Hopefully his family can now be left in peace to sort this out
Excellent to see the same people who criticised Farage for having a drink with a fewpeople after a conference and helping a disabled woman back to her hotel blaming the mirror for Brooks Newmark taking pictures of his dick and sending them to a girl half his age
And when did Mark Reckless first get criticised on PB?? About half four yesterday?? Do you realise what idiots you look?
Imagine how they'd react if Newmark joined ukip now...
He will dial it up to 11 at his speech as his big way of winning back the kipper vote. Except it won't work because the reason the kipper vote exists is because of him - not the EU.
While I have sympathy for anyone who gets caught in a sting operation by the press, you have to think of the obvious? If the press can trick them that easily, what could a truly malicious professional outfit do to them?
No sympathy , he is obviously not very bright and unbelievable that someone as stupid as this can be a government minister , shows they do not get there based on talent.
When I was at the Home Office it was noticed that there was a strong tendency for men in certain certain branches of government to suffer from a condition known as Caprinosity. The disease is easily described - their bollocks become bigger than their brain. It is of course not unknown in the private sector but is most commonly found in those parts of the public sector where people have some relationship to power over others, such as MPs, the police (where it is endemic), the murkier by ways of the Civil Service and so forth. I see from today's news papers that the RC Bishop of Arundel has just been disclosed as a sufferer.
David Davis is being very naughty saying he doesn't think there will be any other defections. That way he gets to act "shocked and appalled" that Cam has let another get away.
Since it is Sunday. If GCHQ were for some reason to read this blog, and (only in theory) had an agent provocateur..... Who would it be? Edit, no names, just the general characteristics
MalcolmG While the SNP will likely make net gains next year and win over left-wing Labour voters who voted Yes (even the PQ/BQ in Quebec won most votes in Quebec the election after losing indy referendums), do not forgot a few voters who have voted SNP in rural areas for many years will have voted No in the likes of Angus and Perth and used to be Tory voters, that is where the Tories targets would be
Because they voted NO does not necessarily mean they will go back to the Tories. It is still hard to say how things will pan out , at the moment it looks like SNP will be more popular than ever but that could fade away. It would be far better for Scotland to have 40 SNP MP's in Westminster as opposed to 40 nodding donkey labour ones as at present. People just do not seem to be intelligent enough to see how to get the best of both worlds.
It's not really being mentioned but the Lib Dems are currently level with the Greens on YouGov. How much longer can this go on. That amounts to nearly 3/4 of their 2010 vote disappearing. Do they just not care?
1. The Lib Dems are doing what is right for the Country regardless of the consequences for their party.... 3. The biggest problem for Lib Dems and all parties is that the voters don't recognise the seriousness of the problem with government finances. Electors are used to being told that government spending will be increased and taxes lowered.
On point 1 - if only the LDs took that approach. They started out from that position and then rapidly shifted to sniping and opposing their Coalition partner blaming the partner for the cuts and not the state of govt finances. the LDs have become the party that lists all the reasons why coalitions are bad things and the voters agree with them so have largely deserted them. On point 3 - key LDs such as Cable and Farron preferring to wring their hands in anguish over the tough decisions taken but have held back from explaining how bad things are and how bad the states of govt finances are due to Labour' legacy. We have had Clegg & Alexander sometimes blaming Labour and Cable & Farron blaming "someone else" usually the mysterious bogie men "the bankers".
Sitting on the fence with folk at the top of your party sending mixed messages ends up with voters recoiling from you. Yes the Conservatives have public splits but the Lib Dem divisions are amongst the people running the party.
Imagine David Cameron announced that he would campaign for Britain to leave the European Union if his planned renegotiation of Britain's relationship with the EU was not a success.
And imagine David Cameron announced that a Conservative government would withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights.
Would this make your opinion of him more positive, more negative or would it make no difference?
The result is more or less a 50-50 split in those changing opinion either thinking more positively or negatively.
Which is the reason for the fudge on both of those issues - the decision is up to the British people and there would be a British Bill of Rights that would trump the Convention on certain things.
Malcolm G Parties often claim they are ahead on postal votes at by elections etc, sharp eyed activists can often see where the crosses are being put through the ballot paper at verification, not technically illegal
It is illegal to count them and tell someone beforehand though. Pretty stupid of Davidson to admit on national TV that their agents had been counting them and passing on info to her and others , when it is against the law.
Brooks Newmark showing greater self awareness than many politicians:
Brooks Newmark tells @itvnews: "I have been a complete fool. I have no one to blame but myself. I have hurt those I care about most."
They are always contrite after getting caught. He at least realises he is a donkey of the first order.
Not all of them. A lesser man would be blustering about 'entrapment', 'gross misrepresentation' 'consenting adults' and so forth - keeping the story running. As it is, he has shut it down completely - rather spoiling the Mirror's fun - calls for "Cameron to sack him", further 'questions over Cameron's judgement' and so forth.
It looks like the Commons will lose one of life's more colourful characters - and we complain that they are all grey aparatchniks.....
Excellent to see the same people who criticised Farage for having a drink with a fewpeople after a conference and helping a disabled woman back to her hotel blaming the mirror for Brooks Newmark taking pictures of his dick and sending them to a girl half his age
And when did Mark Reckless first get criticised on PB?? About half four yesterday?? Do you realise what idiots you look?
Imagine how they'd react if Newmark joined ukip now...
The dirty old perv they're welcome to him!!!!
It's possible to be critical of Brooks, the Mirror and Farage!
Well quite. I still haven't recovered from Vince attempting to vote against his own Tuition Fee Bill
That was just so surreal. A real Head vs Heart moment played out before us on the telly. And his nuclear weapon... after all this talk about Mr Newmark.
It's not really being mentioned but the Lib Dems are currently level with the Greens on YouGov. How much longer can this go on. That amounts to nearly 3/4 of their 2010 vote disappearing. Do they just not care?
1. The Lib Dems are doing what is right for the Country regardless of the consequences for their party.... 3. The biggest problem for Lib Dems and all parties is that the voters don't recognise the seriousness of the problem with government finances. Electors are used to being told that government spending will be increased and taxes lowered.
On point 1 - if only the LDs took that approach. They started out from that position and then rapidly shifted to sniping and opposing their Coalition partner blaming the partner for the cuts and not the state of govt finances. the LDs have become the party that lists all the reasons why coalitions are bad things and the voters agree with them so have largely deserted them. On point 3 - key LDs such as Cable and Farron preferring to wring their hands in anguish over the tough decisions taken but have held back from explaining how bad things are and how bad the states of govt finances are due to Labour' legacy. We have had Clegg & Alexander sometimes blaming Labour and Cable & Farron blaming "someone else" usually the mysterious bogie men "the bankers".
Sitting on the fence with folk at the top of your party sending mixed messages ends up with voters recoiling from you. Yes the Conservatives have public splits but the Lib Dem divisions are amongst the people running the party.
On 31 December 2012 I see 285,856 official pubblic employees in Sicily. 272,138 of them have a permanent contract.
In particular School 98,335 Artistic and Musical Training 719 Government Department 12,568 Prime Minister office 29 Fiscal agencies 3,873 Firefighters 3,282 Police 29,632 Armed Forces 13,433 Justice system 1,101 Prefects 85 Prisons 38 Non economic public companies 3,270 Research institutes 1,026 Universities 7,044 NHS 48,146 Local government 46,176 Regional government 17,029 Indenpendent authorities 0 Diplomats 0 Bodies created by ex Law 70 (don't have a clue on what they are..) 60
The stats on public employment in Italy are a bit misleading though. They consider the proper public employment but there are other jobs that are para-public. For example all outsourced services. The workers are hired by the private company that won the outsourcing contract. So they don't count as public employment even if they work in the same building of public employees.
And then there are railways, post offices and energy company. They sell shares. So they are "SpA" even if the government hold the majority of shares. Same thing for all the useless (many of them) companies under the control of municipalities as main financing bodies.
Brooks Newmark showing greater self awareness than many politicians:
Brooks Newmark tells @itvnews: "I have been a complete fool. I have no one to blame but myself. I have hurt those I care about most."
They are always contrite after getting caught. He at least realises he is a donkey of the first order.
Not all of them. A lesser man would be blustering about 'entrapment', 'gross misrepresentation' 'consenting adults' and so forth - keeping the story running. As it is, he has shut it down completely - rather spoiling the Mirror's fun - calls for "Cameron to sack him", further 'questions over Cameron's judgement' and so forth.
It looks like the Commons will lose one of life's more colourful characters - and we complain that they are all grey aparatchniks.....
I have no sympathy for him at all , gets all he deserves for being so stupid.
It looks like the Commons will lose one of life's more colourful characters - and we complain that they are all grey aparatchniks.....
Is he resigning as an MP? I thought he was just giving up his ministerial job. Presumably he'll be back in after 2015 in the event that the the Tories get back into government.
Excellent to see the same people who criticised Farage for having a drink with a fewpeople after a conference and helping a disabled woman back to her hotel blaming the mirror for Brooks Newmark taking pictures of his dick and sending them to a girl half his age
And when did Mark Reckless first get criticised on PB?? About half four yesterday?? Do you realise what idiots you look?
Imagine how they'd react if Newmark joined ukip now...
The dirty old perv they're welcome to him!!!!
It's possible to be critical of Brooks, the Mirror and Farage!
Imagine David Cameron announced that he would campaign for Britain to leave the European Union if his planned renegotiation of Britain's relationship with the EU was not a success.
And imagine David Cameron announced that a Conservative government would withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights.
Would this make your opinion of him more positive, more negative or would it make no difference?
The result is more or less a 50-50 split in those changing opinion either thinking more positively or negatively.
Which is the reason for the fudge on both of those issues - the decision is up to the British people and there would be a British Bill of Rights that would trump the Convention on certain things.
Who do you trust to make the right decisions on Europe:
Farage 22% Cameron 17% Miliband 17% Clegg 7%
The more eurosceptic a politician is, the more he's trusted on this issue.
Imagine David Cameron announced that he would campaign for Britain to leave the European Union if his planned renegotiation of Britain's relationship with the EU was not a success. Would this make your opinion of him more positive, more negative or would it make no difference?
23% more positive 18% more negative
Not 50-50 at all... a clear lead for the eurosceptic position.
Comments
The idea that the SNP are going to lose seats to the Tories fails to spot the obvious e.g Angus Robertson won Moray with 39% of the vote in 2010. The Yes vote was "only" 42 % in the Referendum.
That is not the basis on which Robertson will be defeated in a multi-party election, unless you think the second placed Tory will persuade all the Labour & LibDem voters to support them. No way will that happen at the present time in Scotland.
Indeed it might be an idea to make clear just what is the proceedure for postal votes and who is present when they are opened. For instance I understand that while staff are required by law to keep ballot papers face down when they are opened (just how is that managed?) there may be occasions when the face of the paper is visible. Are you suggesting only tory officials were in the rooms when these ballots were opened? No SNP officials?
Also, Lord Sunil, the Sunil on Sunday's proprietor and headline-finder pursuivant, has just issued the editorial team with a directive to include all polls with field-work completed on a Sunday (or later) to be included in the following week's ELBOW.
So we've had to add the ICM from 10th August, and shift a bunch of other polls about.
The resulting ELBOWs (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) for the weeks ending 17th Aug to 21st Sep are as follows:
Aug 17th: Lab 36.2, Con 33.2, UKIP 13.1, LD 8.8 - Lab lead 3.0
Aug 24th: Lab 37.1, Con 33.5, UKIP 13.0, LD 8.5 - Lab lead 3.6
Aug 31st: Lab 36.0, Con 32.2, UKIP 14.5, LD 7.8 - Lab lead 3.8
Sep 7th: Lab 35.8, Con 32.5, UKIP 14.9, LD 7.6 - Lab lead 3.3
Sep 14th: Lab 36.0, Con 31.3, UKIP 15.6, LD 7.6 - Lab lead 4.6
Sep 21st: Lab 35.6, Con 32.4, UKIP 13.7, LD 8.3 - Lab lead 3.2
https://twitter.com/ClatchardCraig/status/515907995868626945/photo/1
It’s as though, since they joined the Coalition ....... I didn’t like it, but recognised it as the only viable means of a Government ......just about everything that could possibly go wrong has! And the as Frank Booth says, the leadership, at the top anyway, just doesn’t seem to care. Sarah Teather at least has the good grace to show her embarrassment but to listen to the likes of Clegg and Danny Alexander you would think that “I’d be all right on the night”!
Apart from Eastleigh and a few council by-elections, to be fair, it hasn’t been!
I would have thought if you tweeted all the male MPs with flirty message and perhaps some dirty pictures, you would get a hell of a lot more than one willing to play ball.
They have form for this. I seemed to remember they tried similar things in previous years.
But when will public figures learn? Phone hacking, Snowdon, iCloud celeb hack, if you put something on the internet somewhere, there is a chance if you are a public figure that somebody will try and get hold of it.
So far there are no reports of SNP officials stating the postal ballot numbers on national TV 45 minutes after count started. I will let you know if I hear anything on that however.
Government ministers, and MP's in general cannot complain when the same, (and more) are used by their agencies on the general public?
I fear how an independent Scotland would fare. All Brown's ill fortune would be concentrated in a much smaller area.
If the press can trick them that easily, what could a truly malicious professional outfit do to them?
"I just don't think(resigning would have been) the right thing to do. The job of the United Kingdom Prime Minister, whatever the outcome, would be to knuckle down and get on with the job. It would not have been doing your duty."
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/david-cameron-i-would-have-stayed-on-as-pm-after-yes-vote.1411898004
IIRC there were about 20% No voters who claim to be SNP. And with the Union winning, I could see those Tartan Tories being more self-confident than before.
Maybe @DavidL et al could comment here. I find it fascinating that we've got several Scottish Tories on here - yet no SLabers.
The Lib Dems are doing what is right for the Country regardless of the consequences for their party.
Given the German coalition experience, it has always been known that the minority party in a coalition government would lose support. In Germany the minority coalition partner lost all its seats in a subsequent election.
The biggest problem for Lib Dems and all parties is that the voters don't recognise the seriousness of the problem with government finances. Electors are used to being told that government spending will be increased and taxes lowered.
Well the country's debt levels are now getting close to being unsustainable and borrowing to cover the continuing massive £100bn deficit and refinancing maturing debt is going to get much harder.
Only when the extent of the government debt position is fully recognised by voters as a crisis will the Lib Dems selfless attitude be properly recognised. That does not mean the Lib Dems will ultimately be rewarded. See how badly Churchill was rewarded for his war efforts in the 1945 election that he lost.
A piousness policy that will sit around the necks of the Tories for at least a general election.
The wife of Nigel Farage yesterday barred The Telegraph from a Ukip fringe meeting instructing MEPs how to secure taxpayer-funded holidays for their friends and supporters.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11126430/Nigel-Farages-wife-bars-Press-from-EU-junkets-meeting.html
Of course they don´t. A lot of them seem to get there purely based on the demographic they want to appeal too. Normally falls flat but there you go.
http://www.newsnetscotland.scot/index.php/scottish-news/9793-no-campaign-postal-vote-conduct-called-into-question-as-second-figure-says-he-knew-no-were-ahead
"I don't think there will be any more" says David Davis on future Tory defections to UKIP #bbcsp "
Hostage to fortune?
If GCHQ were for some reason to read this blog, and (only in theory) had an agent provocateur.....
Who would it be?
Edit, no names, just the general characteristics
BBC bashing The Bishop.
"He said his actions "were not illegal and did not involve minors"."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29397223
I haven't done this since 1987. Lewes is a funny place, like Bath. I think the LDs will retain it, but that's just a hunch based on my local knowledge and that many men dress like Uncle Bulgaria...
I am afraid that the Lib Dems have not performed well in government and not done taken the opportunities that coalition offered them. Their likely punishment next May will be well deserved.
More than half of the population are currently employed by the government - doing sometimes entirely pointless and deeply spurious jobs.
Ways of cheating the system seem positively encouraged, and the cost of tax evasion is estimated at anything up to 275 billion euros a year.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-29364585
Sounds totally sustainable.
But he added: "I have said this all my political life: if I thought that it wasn't in Britain's interest to be in the European Union, I wouldn't argue for us to be in it."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29398973
Brooks Newmark tells @itvnews: "I have been a complete fool. I have no one to blame but myself. I have hurt those I care about most."
And when did Mark Reckless first get criticised on PB?? About half four yesterday?? Do you realise what idiots you look?
Imagine how they'd react if Newmark joined ukip now...
The dirty old perv they're welcome to him!!!!
He will dial it up to 11 at his speech as his big way of winning back the kipper vote. Except it won't work because the reason the kipper vote exists is because of him - not the EU.
Very true. But then PB is the biggest Cam fanboy club there is.
It would probably be someone with no more than an average number of posts?
How much time could they afford to spend reading PB?
On point 3 - key LDs such as Cable and Farron preferring to wring their hands in anguish over the tough decisions taken but have held back from explaining how bad things are and how bad the states of govt finances are due to Labour' legacy. We have had Clegg & Alexander sometimes blaming Labour and Cable & Farron blaming "someone else" usually the mysterious bogie men "the bankers".
Sitting on the fence with folk at the top of your party sending mixed messages ends up with voters recoiling from you. Yes the Conservatives have public splits but the Lib Dem divisions are amongst the people running the party.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/j77kqbuqsf/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-260914.pdf
Imagine David Cameron announced that he would campaign for Britain to leave the European Union if his planned renegotiation of Britain's relationship with the EU was not a success.
And imagine David Cameron announced that a Conservative government would withdraw
from the European Convention on Human Rights.
Would this make your opinion of him more positive, more negative or would it make no difference?
The result is more or less a 50-50 split in those changing opinion either thinking more positively or negatively.
Which is the reason for the fudge on both of those issues - the decision is up to the British people and there would be a British Bill of Rights that would trump the Convention on certain things.
I went away for 6 months and still have one of the highest tallies!
If it is me, then I wish the b*ggers would send the paycheck!
It looks like the Commons will lose one of life's more colourful characters - and we complain that they are all grey aparatchniks.....
That was just so surreal. A real Head vs Heart moment played out before us on the telly. And his nuclear weapon... after all this talk about Mr Newmark.
On SNP seats we will see next year
On 31 December 2012 I see 285,856 official pubblic employees in Sicily. 272,138 of them have a permanent contract.
In particular
School 98,335
Artistic and Musical Training 719
Government Department 12,568
Prime Minister office 29
Fiscal agencies 3,873
Firefighters 3,282
Police 29,632
Armed Forces 13,433
Justice system 1,101
Prefects 85
Prisons 38
Non economic public companies 3,270
Research institutes 1,026
Universities 7,044
NHS 48,146
Local government 46,176
Regional government 17,029
Indenpendent authorities 0
Diplomats 0
Bodies created by ex Law 70 (don't have a clue on what they are..) 60
The stats on public employment in Italy are a bit misleading though. They consider the proper public employment but there are other jobs that are para-public.
For example all outsourced services. The workers are hired by the private company that won the outsourcing contract. So they don't count as public employment even if they work in the same building of public employees.
And then there are railways, post offices and energy company. They sell shares. So they are "SpA" even if the government hold the majority of shares. Same thing for all the useless (many of them) companies under the control of municipalities as main financing bodies.
And Cameron is going to be desperately trying yo convince them he is the man to do what they want. Won't work though.
In today's Sunday Times.
Farage 22%
Cameron 17%
Miliband 17%
Clegg 7%
The more eurosceptic a politician is, the more he's trusted on this issue.
Cameron 27%
Miliband 17%
Clegg 4%
Farage 10%
UKIP clearly underperforming here when compared to right-wing parties like AfD in Europe...
I seem to remember reading he is stepping down at the election.
would campaign for Britain to leave the
European Union if his planned renegotiation of
Britain's relationship with the EU was not a
success. Would this make your opinion of him
more positive, more negative or would it make
no difference?
23% more positive
18% more negative
Not 50-50 at all... a clear lead for the eurosceptic position.