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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ladbrokes odds on the Rochester and Strood by election
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ladbrokes odds on the Rochester and Strood by election
Rochester & Strood byelection odds:
2/5 UKIP
3/1 Cons
8/1 Labour
0
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Labour could win if it retains the National poll swings - and then just - depending on how the cookie crumbles between the Tories and UKIP. Remember Labour didn't win this seat even in 2005 !
I am not so sure UKIP will win this one. But on the back of Clacton, who knows ?
Tories should be favourites !
It's a bye election? A chance to kick the government without much actual commitment to any "cause", should favour UKIP?
If Reckless loses, the Carswell convention for kipper defectors may prevent further ones demonstrating their "principles"
But what would make me laugh would be the eurosceptic candidate losing the next tory leadership contest by 2 MPs.
Different circumstances? Though if we are honest, bye elections are always hard to call.
Could he carry on as PM but not as leader of the Tory party?
An orgasmic surge of "toryism"? I wouldn't bet the house on it, but an uptick is likely.
It is another to defect and to do so at a time to cause maximum damage to the party you are leaving.
That suggests a malevolence and a cunning that ill rewards those who have worked at a local level to get you elected.
It doesn't suggest a honest tussle with your beliefs, and then gradually coming round to the fact that the party no longer represents your views.
So, for that reason, I don't have any sympathy with Reckless. I hope he loses, and almost anyone would be a better representative for R&S.
Having said that I think UKIP will win regardless of what Labour do, they'll get Labour and Lib Dem switchers as well as Tory ones.
As much as I was amused about Brooks Newmarks troubles, the way The Mirror sprung that trap was, I feel, criminal in it's intent.
Rupert Myers @RupertMyers 28m
The Mirror's creepy tactics against Brooks Newmark are shameful. Whoever thought this up is no journalist http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/brooks-newmark-resignation#4y20v3 …
I have two separate family members and a number of friends living in the constituency so I will be keeping my ear on the ground.
I think that there is something in that, but not for the reasons you mentioned. The reality is the SNP have swung way to the left in a desperate bid to outflank Labour. The only problem is that they couldn't deliver their homelands for the referendum.
The SNP blame Labour for losing the election (apparently we sent to many resources from "the south") they are bitter angry and determined to take Labour on as the "pure" left wing party.
A similar mistake to the Libs in 2005.
It is certainly true that, if Reckless wins, it is well worth being in a good second-place. So, both Labour & Tory should throw the sink as this.
It will be an exciting by-election.
I think the Tory strategy should not be Glasgow East (a quick by-election), but it should be Glenrothes (a long lead-in.)
It's Labour who don't like EVEL, for reasons to obvious to mention....
The Tories can go hard on Reckless, knowing that if Labour win, it barely matters. Indeed it might reinforce vote UKIP get Labour.
Pay more for car use, pay more for energy, pay more for flights, pay more taxes on petrol, car ownership, parking fees, parking permits cos we know best. Bunch of authoritarian shysters posing as saviours of penguins and polar bears, a last refuge for poseurs & scoundrels.
Statistically unlikely, but if they won extra seats in Scotland that allowed the Tories to form a UK government, it would put a cat amongst the EVEL pigeons?
Clark was (rather pretensiously) referencing Bob Armstrong's comments in the Australian Spycatcher trial
Lawyer: What is the difference between a misleading impression and a lie?
Armstrong: A lie is a straight untruth
L: What is a misleading impression - a sort of bent untruth?
A: As one person said [Edmund Burke] it is perhaps being "economical with the truth"
(Burke didn't actually use the phrase but he reference to, "as in the exercise of all virtues, there is an economy of truth")
It may help in some ways, lose Clacton was seemingly inevitable despite my irrational support of Rev Oswald but if they can then take out Reckless in November that MIGHT draw a line until the election.....
Trying to look for a positive - not that easy though....
It is difficult to see such an equation resulting in Tory gains. The borders are a better bet for 2 reasons. Firstly one of the targets is Lib Dem and they are in melt down. Secondly the yes vote was barely 30%. I think Dumfries from Labour is a good chance for the same reason.
Another Lib Dem seat in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine looks a good prospect for the same reasons. After that it gets a bit tricky but North East Fife and Argyll and Bute are very long odd outsiders as is Gordon but I suspect that will go SNP.
To put money on the Rochester and Strood by election on Betfair!
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.115707446
There might be more in this story, than meets the eye.
There's many innocent dupes who've been conned out of tens of thousands by such scams, usually involving plane fares. There's an American ex-soldier whose photo has been used (without his knowledge) by scammers trying to befriend ladies.
On another note, it's a tactic used by groomers on t'Internet as well: grown men posing as young girls or boys to attract friendship for dubious reasons from other young boys and girls.
The Mirror's trodden a narrow line here, and it feels as icky as hell. If it turns out the lady's photo was used without her permission, then they've gone well over that line.
But most of my sympathy goes for Newmark's family.
Got a link for "Davidson being interviewed by the police"?
Wouldn't want to get OGH in trouble......
It's yet another example of Cameron's adage being correct: too many tweets making a tw@t.
Buzzfeed says that "she" was floating around trying to flirt with multiple Tory MPs and he was just the numpty that responded
Katie @KatieEwen123 · 12h
So Ruth Davidson is to be questioned "under caution" by police regarding claims that sample postal votes were counted by BT
Believe it is to find out where info came from , she said on TV that postal votes were heavily to NO, gave numbers etc and it was reported to police who are investigating.
Much of the stuff about Newmark flashing his nethers seems to be ignoring the fact that he was trying to arrange a 'meeting' during the conference. I'm not happy about stings like this but I wish for (almost) once a publicly cuckolded politico wife would tell her husband to sling his hook.
Morning Mr. G., good to see you back and pleased to read that you had a nice holiday.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=ruth+davidson+postal+&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&gfe_rd=cr&ei=Y9onVLawHMaq8weGzIDYAg#q=ruth+davidson+postal&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&tbm=nws
And morning Malcolm.
http://euobserver.com/justice/30213
Apparently Betfair and Ladbrokes want the laws harmonized by the EU, and the Commission has had some success in getting member states to open up their local monopolies, but it might be worth calling your MP and suggesting he do more to push for faster progress.
However most SNP seats are in what was originally Tory territory. Places like Perth and Angus. With the tories in the doldrums, people there seem to have tactically voted SNP to keep Labour out. However after the antics of the referendum I don't think that will be happening again.
Similarly the Liberal seats are also rural and often ex tory historically.
Going seat by seat, these are the seats that could go tory
Aberdeen South: Tories 7,000 behind SNP. However Libdems got 12,000 votes.
Angus: Tories 3,200 behind SNP
Argyll and Bute: Tories 3,500 behind LD
Banff and Buchan: Tories 4,000 behind SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Tories 5,800 behind LD
Edinburgh West: Tories 5,900 behind LD
Moray: Tories 5,800 behind SNP
Perth and North Perthshire: Tories 4,300 behind SNP.
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine: Tories 3,600 behind LD
Add in the fact that the demographics make it inevitable that about 20 LD seats at places like Eastbourne, Lewes, Mid Dorset, Someton and Frome, Taunton, North Norfolk, you could get a situation where:
Labour win 30 tory (20) and Liberal Seats (10) but lose 10 seats to SNP in Scotland, gain one from green, lose one to Respect. Net gain 20 = 278 seats
Tory win 30 seats of libs and SNP but lose 20 seats to Labour and 10 to UKIP = 306 seats (no change)
Lib lose 25 to tory, 10 to labour and 5 to SNP. = 17 seats
SNP = lose 5 to tory gain 10 from labour and 5 from LD = 16 seats
UKIP = 10 seats
DUP = 8 Seats
SF = 5
PC = 3
SDLP = 3
Alliance = 1
Speaker = 1
Sylvia Hernon = 1
Respect = 1
Total number of seats = 650. Real number of Seats = 644 as Speaker and SF do not vote.
Therefore 322 needed for Majority rather than 326.
306 tory + 10 UKIP + 8 DUP + Sylvia Hernon = 325
If Tories depose Bercow and elect a speaker from another party = 326
= Tory minority government with supply and confidence from above until another election in about 18 months, possibly longer as the left is so fragmented over 7 parties (8 including SF)
It is expected that Ms Davidson will be spoken to about her TV statement.
Not quite 'interviewed under caution by the police'.......
But this is the press which sees itself aboove the law and demand the right to police themselves.
The polling says the opposite.
The last time the Tories had two dozen MPs in Scotland was in 1964......
In my opinion this was for a number of reasons. Firstly, by far the largest users of postal votes were the old who voted overwhelmingly no. Secondly, I think Yes supporters were much more minded to vote on what they believed was going to be an historic day than merely popping something in the post a week or so beforehand.
So I would be astonished if Ruth Davidson did not have canvassing information both from personal visits and even more so from telephone calls indicating a strong no turnout in the postal votes. The idea that anyone had access to the actual ballots is incredibly far fetched.
And under Mrs Thatcher, in 1979 the Conservatives won 22 Scottish seats, and 21 in 1983. Or in round numbers, two dozen.
I think all parties try to sample it. It is apparently not allowed to report what you have seen at the postal voting opening but I doubt they don't really report it to central offices.