I could hardly believe how many people I met in Boston pubs who were intending to vote Ukip. But good 'ol tim said it was all a mirage and I assumed I was meeting an unrepresentative crowd.
Well, Tim was a pretty unrepresentative crowd himself.
Out of a Conservative-leaning sample group (loyalists, joiners, considerers, defectors), more are moving away from the Conservatives than towards them.
At first glance that's not a great poll for Labour (tho we await the deets). Add in 8 months of an improving economy, and the Miliband factor (will they really vote for him on the day?) and it is possible to see a repeat performance of 2010. Tory NOM.
When asked to rank their priorities, "cutting the deficit and debt" ranks only FIFTH -- behind economic growth, immigration, cost of living and the NHS.
It could be cutting the deficit is way down people´s priorities but it remains key. Say an incoming Labour government embarks on an old fashioned dash for growth. Apart from the fact it will have the same effect as before, this will likely mean the markets do not consider Labour serious as regards the deficit. Cue, attacks on the pound. This will then be allowed to fall and fall (increase in inflation) or interest rates will rise (with the usual consequences).
So, no coherent plan on the deficit means: economic growth - hurt by either inflation or high interest rates or both, immigration - possibly less if there is less economic growth, cost of living - up as inflation rises, NHS (yaaaawn) - at risk if he government runs out of money as interest rates rise
The other party of protest that has potential for betting is the greens. 16/1 at William Hill for 2 or more.
I haven't seen a market for Respect, but I expect that they may make a good show in some seats particularly if it goes all Pete Tong on the airstrikes.
Unfortunately there are no GE seat spreads available yet but where would you set it for UKIP right now.
I would be a buyer at 6 if available. Overegging it?
Clacton and South Thanet are odds on... About 1/6 and 4/5
I think Thurrock should be odds on now as well. 7/4 is massive, I'd have it 4/6
S Bas and E Thurrock is still big odds considering it has a better profile than Thurrock...
Boston and Skegness has a 20 pt lead according to Farage
He also showed polling that puts ukip ahead in Eastleigh... Although Disne James isn't standing there... Wherever she is standing should be worth looking at as she is an obviously worthy candidate
Perhaps Portsmouth South for her.
Great Grimsby, Castle point, Dudley North, North Thanet, Rochester and Strood, Basildon &Billericay...
Hornchurch and Upminster was polled by the cons recently... I know that because I was one of them...
If you think 6 is a buy then just have a massive bet on5 or more. It's still odds against
I'd be surprised by double figures and amazed at less than three
Thanks Isam
>5 on Betfair wins me a pony in an all-green book. My best strategy now is to try and pick off the likely constituencies.
I think Clacton, S Thanet and Rochester are gimmes. Eastleigh looks good too. Beyond that it gets tricky.
I'll have a look at your suggestions. I'm already on Cleethorpes 33/1, Eastleigh 8/1 and Kettering 12/1 but they could be 'strong seconds' which would be a bit of a bummer.
I wouldn't buy Eastleigh. That's Lib Dem ground-zero. They have a blue-balls firm grip on the local council and a sizeable activist base.
I think the Scottish seats in the next election will be a surprise to some. Clearly the SNP are eating into the Labour vote for much the same reason as UKIP are south of the border.
However most SNP seats are in what was originally Tory territory. Places like Perth and Angus. With the tories in the doldrums, people there seem to have tactically voted SNP to keep Labour out. However after the antics of the referendum I don't think that will be happening again.
Similarly the Liberal seats are also rural and often ex tory historically.
Going seat by seat, these are the seats that could go tory
Aberdeen South: Tories 7,000 behind SNP. However Libdems got 12,000 votes. Angus: Tories 3,200 behind SNP Argyll and Bute: Tories 3,500 behind LD Banff and Buchan: Tories 4,000 behind SNP Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Tories 5,800 behind LD Edinburgh West: Tories 5,900 behind LD Moray: Tories 5,800 behind SNP Perth and North Perthshire: Tories 4,300 behind SNP. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine: Tories 3,600 behind LD
Add in the fact that the demographics make it inevitable that about 20 LD seats at places like Eastbourne, Lewes, Mid Dorset, Someton and Frome, Taunton, North Norfolk, you could get a situation where:
Labour win 30 tory (20) and Liberal Seats (10) but lose 10 seats to SNP in Scotland, gain one from green, lose one to Respect. Net gain 20 = 278 seats
Tory win 30 seats of libs and SNP but lose 20 seats to Labour and 10 to UKIP = 306 seats (no change)
Lib lose 25 to tory, 10 to labour and 5 to SNP. = 17 seats
SNP = lose 5 to tory gain 10 from labour and 5 from LD = 16 seats
UKIP = 10 seats
DUP = 8 Seats
SF = 5
PC = 3
SDLP = 3
Alliance = 1
Speaker = 1
Sylvia Hernon = 1
Respect = 1
Total number of seats = 650. Real number of Seats = 644 as Speaker and SF do not vote.
Therefore 322 needed for Majority rather than 326.
306 tory + 10 UKIP + 8 DUP + Sylvia Hernon = 325
If Tories depose Bercow and elect a speaker from another party = 326
= Tory minority government with supply and confidence from above until another election in about 18 months, possibly longer as the left is so fragmented over 7 parties (8 including SF)
Both Ffion and Cameron have eyes wet with tears following William Hague's speech. A fantastic exposition of Conservative history, values and the relevance of those to the future.
Casino UKIP may also pick up some from Labour, they are confident in Rotherham. The SNP will pick up a few urban Labour seats which voted Yes, but the Tories could win some rural SNP seats which voted No
I can seduce many into agreeing with me - not an attractive facet of my personality, but frankly very useful in a mercenary way.
There are times when one must throw the kitchen sink at an issue. Mr Reckless is now in my tractor beam. I hate self-centred disloyalty. And wouldn't want me as an enemy.
Adam Boulton has an interesting article today in which he argues the election still Cameron's to lose. He compares Miliband's speech unfavourably to the speeches of Cameron in 2009 and Blair in 1996 before they became PM, as well as even Kinnock's 1991 speech http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/columns/adamboulton/article1464401.ece
At first glance that's not a great poll for Labour (tho we await the deets). Add in 8 months of an improving economy, and the Miliband factor (will they really vote for him on the day?) and it is possible to see a repeat performance of 2010. Tory NOM.
I noted even the leftie comics on the likes of Mock the Week openly take the pi$$ out of how unelectable /useless Miliband appears, even more so than standard fare of posh boy Cameron / Osborne being out of touch. I heard one that even attended Labour Party conference in a personal capacity openly mocking him / his speech.
Re "dick" pics in snapchat...if people think that is safe, well they haven't heard of screen capture then. For all we know, the minister might have sent them via snapchat, doesn't mean they wont still have them, plus all the dodgy messages.
I can seduce many into agreeing with me - not an attractive facet of my personality, but frankly very useful in a mercenary way.
There are times when one must throw the kitchen sink at an issue. Mr Reckless is now in my tractor beam. I hate self-centred disloyalty. And wouldn't want me as an enemy.
If Bercow is deposed, I can't see him meekly voting with the Conservatives, nor standing down for a by-election, so I think you are probably optimistic there.
You also have to remember that there are a significant minority of Tory MPs, especially those in London constituencies, who actively support membership of the EU, and who would be very unhappy with a ukip coalition. Even if you did get the votes for the Queens speech you would constantly be at the mercy of those on either extreme of the Tory UKIP spectrum.
Danny565 Labour always has a lead with public sector workers, but as private sector workers make up a majority of the economy they need a small lead with them too if they are going to win the general election
Casino UKIP may also pick up some from Labour, they are confident in Rotherham. The SNP will pick up a few urban Labour seats which voted Yes, but the Tories could win some rural SNP seats which voted No
The Tories should win three or four seats from the LibDems in Scotland, however there is a danger that if they are seen to renage on Devomax then they will not.
At first glance that's not a great poll for Labour (tho we await the deets). Add in 8 months of an improving economy, and the Miliband factor (will they really vote for him on the day?) and it is possible to see a repeat performance of 2010. Tory NOM.
I noted even the leftie comics on the likes of Mock the Week openly take the pi$$ out of how unelectable /useless Miliband appears, even more so than standard fare of posh boy Cameron / Osborne being out of touch. I heard one that even attended Labour Party conference in a personal capacity openly mocking him / his speech.
Re "dick" pics in snapchat...if people think that is safe, well they haven't heard of screen capture then. For all we know, the minister might have sent them via snapchat, doesn't mean they wont still have them, plus all the dodgy messages.
Yes. Head will beat heart. The arsehole will beat the fool. The privileged, out of touch, pompous (but competent) posh boy will beat the well-meaning but weird, incompetent and out of his depth north London left-wing intellectual.
I detest Cameron but i see Miliband as *such* a threat to the well-being and recovery of this country, that I have returned to the fold after flirting very heavily with UKIP this year. His speech last week was a turning point for me.
Casino UKIP may also pick up some from Labour, they are confident in Rotherham. The SNP will pick up a few urban Labour seats which voted Yes, but the Tories could win some rural SNP seats which voted No
The Tories should win three or four seats from the LibDems in Scotland, however there is a danger that if they are seen to renage on Devomax then they will not.
I'm a bit more cautious. I can see the Tories picking up WA&K, and B,R&S from the Lib Dems. But i doubt they will pick up any more than that.
If Labour totally collapse in Scotland, they may also sneek through the middle to pick up Dumfries & Galloway, but Labour have a very solid majority there at present.
CR-That is obviously the great Tory hope. That REd is so far out there that he is unelectable. It may or may not work. Still, others have run campaigns based on fear and fear alone and have done ok. Even if this includes the evil baby eating Tories of 2010 - Labour lost, but they should have lost far more seats. Then we have 1992.
CR-That is obviously the great Tory hope. That REd is so far out there that he is unelectable. It may or may not work. Still, others have run campaigns based on fear and fear alone and have done ok. Even if this includes the evil baby eating Tories of 2010 - Labour lost, but they should have lost far more seats. Then we have 1992.
Yes, even 2010 is evidence of the effectiveness of a strong rearguard action. Labour should really have lost a further 20 seats to the Tories, so the Tories won a very slim majority.
You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.
I don't understand the fashion for texting and e-mailing photographs of one's genitalia.
I doubt it's the weirdest way people have looked at genitalia. If people were willing to painstakingly scrimshaw genitalia, as a funny little story from a year or so ago on 'whale bone porn' leads me to believe was a thing, texting or emailing genitalia just seems lazy by comparison
You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.
I don't understand the fashion for texting and e-mailing photographs of one's genitalia.
I doubt it's the weirdest way people have looked at or transmitted genitalia. If people are willing to painstakingly scrimshaw genitalia, as a funny little story from a year or so ago on 'whale bone porn' apparently was a thing, then texting or emailing them just seems lazy by comparison.
You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.
I don't understand the fashion for texting and e-mailing photographs of one's genitalia.
I doubt it's the weirdest way people have looked at or transmitted genitalia. If people are willing to painstakingly scrimshaw genitalia, as a funny little story from a year or so ago on 'whale bone porn' apparently was a thing, then texting or emailing them just seems lazy by comparison.
You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.
I don't understand the fashion for texting and e-mailing photographs of one's genitalia.
I doubt it's the weirdest way people have looked at genitalia. If people were willing to painstakingly scrimshaw genitalia, as a funny little story from a year or so ago on 'whale bone porn' leads me to believe was a thing, texting or emailing genitalia just seems lazy by comparison
You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.
I don't understand the fashion for texting and e-mailing photographs of one's genitalia.
I doubt it's the weirdest way people have looked at or transmitted genitalia. If people are willing to painstakingly scrimshaw genitalia, as a funny little story from a year or so ago on 'whale bone porn' apparently was a thing, then texting or emailing them just seems lazy by comparison.
You are supposed to send pictures of your genitals via Snapchat, 'cos the pictures disappear after ten seconds.
I don't understand the fashion for texting and e-mailing photographs of one's genitalia.
I doubt it's the weirdest way people have looked at or transmitted genitalia. If people are willing to painstakingly scrimshaw genitalia, as a funny little story from a year or so ago on 'whale bone porn' apparently was a thing, then texting or emailing them just seems lazy by comparison.
Comments
So Tories and Labour virtually tied on seats?
Does this assume any Labour-SNP moves?
Given we still have 7 months to go would seem all to play for.
Out of a Conservative-leaning sample group (loyalists, joiners, considerers, defectors), more are moving away from the Conservatives than towards them.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Project-Blueprint-Phase-5.pdf
2010 result was:
Lab 42%, SNP 20%, LD 19%, Con 17%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_breakdown_of_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010#Scotland
Say an incoming Labour government embarks on an old fashioned dash for growth. Apart from the fact it will have the same effect as before, this will likely mean the markets do not consider Labour serious as regards the deficit. Cue, attacks on the pound. This will then be allowed to fall and fall (increase in inflation) or interest rates will rise (with the usual consequences).
So, no coherent plan on the deficit means:
economic growth - hurt by either inflation or high interest rates or both,
immigration - possibly less if there is less economic growth,
cost of living - up as inflation rises,
NHS (yaaaawn) - at risk if he government runs out of money as interest rates rise
I haven't seen a market for Respect, but I expect that they may make a good show in some seats particularly if it goes all Pete Tong on the airstrikes.
Very well dug-in there.
- Tories unpopular but winning on the economy vs Labour.
- Labour narrowly leading the polls pretty much by default, with an unpopular leader
- the Lib Dems seemingly facing a bad election
- the SNP potentially gaining big in Scotland in Labour areas
- UKIP challenging the Tories in the South
- UKIP (possibly) challenging Labour in Northern heartlands.
So many factors. So many unknowns. It's really tough to say what will happen.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/09/liberal-democrat-battleground/
that means it belongs with the ELBOW for the 21st September!
Just about to depart east London for the Midlands now, but watch this space!
At this point in 2009 I think the Tories were still getting 10-15% leads in the marginals?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_Parliamentary_Constituencies#Westminster_Constituencies
It could be that both the SNP and UKIP fight both Labour and the Conservatives, respectively, to "par" in terms of net seat loss.
I think "hung parliament" on Betfair is still excellent value.
http://tinyurl.com/ko6zc46
There are times when one must throw the kitchen sink at an issue. Mr Reckless is now in my tractor beam. I hate self-centred disloyalty. And wouldn't want me as an enemy.
I suspect he'll stop following me on Twitter now.
Re "dick" pics in snapchat...if people think that is safe, well they haven't heard of screen capture then. For all we know, the minister might have sent them via snapchat, doesn't mean they wont still have them, plus all the dodgy messages.
If Bercow is deposed, I can't see him meekly voting with the Conservatives, nor standing down for a by-election, so I think you are probably optimistic there.
You also have to remember that there are a significant minority of Tory MPs, especially those in London constituencies, who actively support membership of the EU, and who would be very unhappy with a ukip coalition. Even if you did get the votes for the Queens speech you would constantly be at the mercy of those on either extreme of the Tory UKIP spectrum.
I detest Cameron but i see Miliband as *such* a threat to the well-being and recovery of this country, that I have returned to the fold after flirting very heavily with UKIP this year. His speech last week was a turning point for me.
Make of that what you will.
If Labour totally collapse in Scotland, they may also sneek through the middle to pick up Dumfries & Galloway, but Labour have a very solid majority there at present.
Thanks to Mandelson, they didn't.
It's just a different world, the internet. It has changed everything.
Clearly, I lead a sheltered life.
I doubt it's the weirdest way people have looked at genitalia. If people were willing to painstakingly scrimshaw genitalia, as a funny little story from a year or so ago on 'whale bone porn' leads me to believe was a thing, texting or emailing genitalia just seems lazy by comparison
I doubt it's the weirdest way people have looked at or transmitted genitalia. If people are willing to painstakingly scrimshaw genitalia, as a funny little story from a year or so ago on 'whale bone porn' apparently was a thing, then texting or emailing them just seems lazy by comparison.
I doubt it's the weirdest way people have looked at or transmitted genitalia. If people are willing to painstakingly scrimshaw genitalia, as a funny little story from a year or so ago on 'whale bone porn' apparently was a thing, then texting or emailing them just seems lazy by comparison.
It's just a different world, the internet. It has changed everything.
Clearly, I lead a sheltered life.
I doubt it's the weirdest way people have looked at genitalia. If people were willing to painstakingly scrimshaw genitalia, as a funny little story from a year or so ago on 'whale bone porn' leads me to believe was a thing, texting or emailing genitalia just seems lazy by comparison
I doubt it's the weirdest way people have looked at or transmitted genitalia. If people are willing to painstakingly scrimshaw genitalia, as a funny little story from a year or so ago on 'whale bone porn' apparently was a thing, then texting or emailing them just seems lazy by comparison.
I doubt it's the weirdest way people have looked at or transmitted genitalia. If people are willing to painstakingly scrimshaw genitalia, as a funny little story from a year or so ago on 'whale bone porn' apparently was a thing, then texting or emailing them just seems lazy by comparison.
Churchill switched twice. Conservative to Liberal then Liberal to Conservative.