Well quite. I still haven't recovered from Vince attempting to vote against his own Tuition Fee Bill That was just so surreal. A real Head vs Heart moment played out before us on the telly. And his nuclear weapon... after all this talk about Mr Newmark.
It's not really being mentioned but the Lib Dems are currently level with the Greens on YouGov. How much longer can this go on. That amounts to nearly 3/4 of their 2010 vote disappearing. Do they just not care?
1. The Lib Dems are doing what is right for the Country regardless of the consequences for their party.... 3. The biggest problem for Lib Dems and all parties is that the voters don't recognise the seriousness of the problem with government finances. Electors are used to being told that government spending will be increased and taxes lowered.
On point 1 - if only the LDs took that approach. They started out from that position and then rapidly shifted to sniping and opposing their Coalition partner blaming the partner for the cuts and not the state of govt finances. the LDs have become the party that lists all the reasons why coalitions are bad things and the voters agree with them so have largely deserted them. On point 3 - key LDs such as Cable and Farron preferring to wring their hands in anguish over the tough decisions taken but have held back from explaining how bad things are and how bad the states of govt finances are due to Labour' legacy. We have had Clegg & Alexander sometimes blaming Labour and Cable & Farron blaming "someone else" usually the mysterious bogie men "the bankers". Sitting on the fence with folk at the top of your party sending mixed messages ends up with voters recoiling from you. Yes the Conservatives have public splits but the Lib Dem divisions are amongst the people running the party.
Duplicitous, untrustworthy? A party that prefers opposing, rather than taking tough decisions.
It looks like the Commons will lose one of life's more colourful characters - and we complain that they are all grey aparatchniks.....
Is he resigning as an MP? I thought he was just giving up his ministerial job. Presumably he'll be back in after 2015 in the event that the the Tories get back into government.
You're right - I'd misheard 'stepping down from ministerial post' as 'parliament' - tho whether he stands again may be open to question.
I see that 12 schools in Tower Hamlets are under scrutiny as Trojan Horses - not a surprise, just amazed it's taken this long to out them.
In today's Sunday Times.
A lot of labour supporters on here often cite Tower Hamlets schools as those we should aspire to... I constantly compared them to the Birmingham schools, who were also very successful academically... The connection has long been there for anyone who wanted to make it
I hope everyone remember tim constantly telling me that East end schools were better because "thick white racists" had been moved out... Well turns out he was right, but ethnic cleansers aren't usually so boastful
Everything in Rochester depends on the CON candidate choice. The blues need someone who can appeal to LAN and LD cross-overs - not a Mark Reckless lookalike.
Why should Lab and LD give a stuff whether it's Tory or Ukip? I really cannot understand those tempted to vote tactically for the Tories. Ukip may be worse but they're in a position to do precisely nothing.
Conversation on this site may lead you to think that only Tory establishment types hate UKIP, but actually there's a perception among quite a lot of people that they're BNP-lite.
Only among dyed-in-the-wool lefties.
No, I think sadly the impression is far wider spread than that. That's the damage a cynically mendacious media campaign can produce. If you read a faintly nasty story about UKIP supporters/politicians, and have nothing to set that against, that quickly becomes your opinion. And an opinion, once set, is pretty much impossible to shift.
The recent Comres did not show UKIP to be more negatively viewed than other parties.
"Please indicate whether you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following."
Imagine David Cameron announced that he would campaign for Britain to leave the European Union if his planned renegotiation of Britain's relationship with the EU was not a success.
And imagine David Cameron announced that a Conservative government would withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights.
Would this make your opinion of him more positive, more negative or would it make no difference?
The result is more or less a 50-50 split in those changing opinion either thinking more positively or negatively.
Which is the reason for the fudge on both of those issues - the decision is up to the British people and there would be a British Bill of Rights that would trump the Convention on certain things.
99%+ of those polled will have no previous knowledge of the provisions or workings on the European Convention on Human Rights. And if I were in a similar position, asked if a nasty Tory wanted to remove us from a human rights convention, I wouldn't like the sound of it either. I'm amazed that anyone thought more positively. There should have been a supplementary question 'Name an article of the ECHR', and the favourable vs unfavourable weighted on the basis of the answers.
Imagine David Cameron announced that he would campaign for Britain to leave the European Union if his planned renegotiation of Britain's relationship with the EU was not a success. Would this make your opinion of him more positive, more negative or would it make no difference?
23% more positive 18% more negative
Not 50-50 at all... a clear lead for the eurosceptic position.
It was this incident that halted my pencil in the polling booth back then. I just couldn't with good conscience give even a local council election vote to the LDs - even though I was a passionate Coalitionista. I had two votes and despite intending to share them between Tories and LDs as I walked into the polling booth - I just couldn't do it.
Quite an epiphany for me. I was very conflicted about where I stood. Finally, I jumped and joined the Blue Team. I'm a real In For A Penny/In For A Pound sort and felt much better afterwards.
Well quite. I still haven't recovered from Vince attempting to vote against his own Tuition Fee Bill That was just so surreal. A real Head vs Heart moment played out before us on the telly. And his nuclear weapon... after all this talk about Mr Newmark.
It's not really being mentioned but the Lib Dems are currently level with the Greens on YouGov. How much longer can this go on. That amounts to nearly 3/4 of their 2010 vote disappearing. Do they just not care?
1. The Lib Dems are doing what is right for the Country regardless of the consequences for their party.... 3. The biggest problem for Lib Dems and all parties is that the voters don't recognise the seriousness of the problem with government finances. Electors are used to being told that government spending will be increased and taxes lowered.
On point 1 - if only the LDs took that approach. They started out from that position and then rapidly shifted to sniping and opposing their Coalition partner blaming the partner for the cuts and not the state of govt finances. the LDs have become the party that lists all the reasons why coalitions are bad things and the voters agree with them so have largely deserted them. On point 3 - key LDs such as Cable and Farron preferring to wring their hands in anguish over the tough decisions taken but have held back from explaining how bad things are and how bad the states of govt finances are due to Labour' legacy. We have had Clegg & Alexander sometimes blaming Labour and Cable & Farron blaming "someone else" usually the mysterious bogie men "the bankers". Sitting on the fence with folk at the top of your party sending mixed messages ends up with voters recoiling from you. Yes the Conservatives have public splits but the Lib Dem divisions are amongst the people running the party.
Duplicitous, untrustworthy? A party that prefers opposing, rather than taking tough decisions.
You offered a bet last night under/over 47.5% on UKIP in R&S
I was out and haven't really got an opinion on it to be honest... I'd only be backing over out of ukip bravado, I don't know what the right level should be
I think your guess at the bookie odds was about 1/3 ukip, so not a mile away from the hills and lads prices... What do you fancy there?
Malcolm G Parties often claim they are ahead on postal votes at by elections etc, sharp eyed activists can often see where the crosses are being put through the ballot paper at verification, not technically illegal
It is illegal to count them and tell someone beforehand though. Pretty stupid of Davidson to admit on national TV that their agents had been counting them and passing on info to her and others , when it is against the law.
Mr. G., Having been involved in a face-down verification of postal votes I would say that it is impossible to count them. Of course, things might be done differently up there, but down here you have four people at a table on which is dumped a bin load of ballot papers. The four people then proceed to count the number of papers (papers not votes) into groups of 25 whilst at the same time as far as possible keeping them face down. One can get an impression, of course, of which way the votes are splitting (totally wrong in my case at the Euro Elections) but not a count.
Agents from the parties are not allowed nearer the tables than about a yard and the counting is done by people unconnected with any party and in any case would only at best count 25 of each load.. So unless you are telling us that massive rigging goes on in Scotland your idea that agents counted the votes rather fails.
It would be a stupid mistake for Cameron to ramp up the "I will take us out the E.U" little immediate electoral gain, more demonstrating of weakness to the nutty brigade and a long term strategic error.
It was this incident that halted my pencil in the polling booth back then. I just couldn't with good conscience give even a local council election vote to the LDs - even though I was a passionate Coalitionista. I had two votes and despite intending to share them between Tories and LDs as I walked into the polling booth - I just couldn't do it.
Quite an epiphany for me. I was very conflicted about where I stood. Finally, I jumped and joined the Blue Team. I'm a real In For A Penny/In For A Pound sort and felt much better afterwards.
Well quite. I still haven't recovered from Vince attempting to vote against his own Tuition Fee Bill That was just so surreal. A real Head vs Heart moment played out before us on the telly. And his nuclear weapon... after all this talk about Mr Newmark.
It's not really being mentioned but the Lib Dems are currently level with the Greens on YouGov. How much longer can this go on. That amounts to nearly 3/4 of their 2010 vote disappearing. Do they just not care?
1. The Lib Dems are doing what is right for the Country regardless of the consequences for their party.... 3. The biggest problem for Lib Dems and all parties is that the voters don't recognise the seriousness of the problem with government finances. Electors are used to being told that government spending will be increased and taxes lowered.
On point 1 - if only the LDs took that approach. They started out from that position and then rapidly shifted to sniping and opposing their Coalition partner blaming the partner for the cuts and not the state of govt finances. the LDs have become the party that lists all the reasons why coalitions are bad things and the voters agree with them so have largely deserted them. On point 3 - key LDs such as Cable and Farron preferring to wring their hands in anguish over the tough decisions taken but have held back from explaining how bad things are and how bad the states of govt finances are due to Labour' legacy. We have had Clegg & Alexander sometimes blaming Labour and Cable & Farron blaming "someone else" usually the mysterious bogie men "the bankers". Sitting on the fence with folk at the top of your party sending mixed messages ends up with voters recoiling from you. Yes the Conservatives have public splits but the Lib Dem divisions are amongst the people running the party.
Duplicitous, untrustworthy? A party that prefers opposing, rather than taking tough decisions.
I hope @MrJones comes back soon. He was a very unPC voice when this site was full of it/name-calling anyone who disagreed with the levels of immigration a racist etc.
And he was right. It's horrible what's happened - but pretending it didn't is worse in my book.
I see that 12 schools in Tower Hamlets are under scrutiny as Trojan Horses - not a surprise, just amazed it's taken this long to out them.
In today's Sunday Times.
A lot of labour supporters on here often cite Tower Hamlets schools as those we should aspire to... I constantly compared them to the Birmingham schools, who were also very successful academically... The connection has long been there for anyone who wanted to make it
I hope everyone remember tim constantly telling me that East end schools were better because "thick white racists" had been moved out... Well turns out he was right, but ethnic cleansers aren't usually so boastful
It was this incident that halted my pencil in the polling booth back then. I just couldn't with good conscience give even a local council election vote to the LDs - even though I was a passionate Coalitionista. I had two votes and despite intending to share them between Tories and LDs as I walked into the polling booth - I just couldn't do it. Quite an epiphany for me. I was very conflicted about where I stood. Finally, I jumped and joined the Blue Team. I'm a real In For A Penny/In For A Pound sort and felt much better afterwards.
There does seem to be a difference in approach between Conservative members of Govt and Lib Dem members of Govt. The Lib Dems appear to be more willing to highlight where they have opposed proposals almost delighting in listing all the things they have stopped. They even stop things as Govt ministers that were agreed in the coalition agreement. It leaves a very bad smell. The main folk opposing Lib Dem proposals in the Conservatives are Conservative back benchers. These folk are less well known and not bound by the principles of cabinet Government. Maybe that is why the Lib Dems have not lost MPs to Labour? Lib Dem backbenchers can read in the papers and media how their Govt ministers are opposing the Conservatives. This engenders more loyalty, but at the expense of trashing their parties image?
It was this incident that halted my pencil in the polling booth back then. I just couldn't with good conscience give even a local council election vote to the LDs - even though I was a passionate Coalitionista. I had two votes and despite intending to share them between Tories and LDs as I walked into the polling booth - I just couldn't do it.
Well quite. I still haven't recovered from Vince attempting to vote against his own Tuition Fee Bill That was just so surreal. A real Head vs Heart moment played out before us on the telly. And his nuclear weapon... after all this talk about Mr Newmark.
It's not really being mentioned but the Lib Dems are currently level with the Greens on YouGov. How much longer can this go on. That amounts to nearly 3/4 of their 2010 vote disappearing. Do they just not care?
1. The Lib Dems are doing what is right for the Country regardless of the consequences for their party.... 3. The biggest problem for Lib Dems and all parties is that the voters don't recognise the seriousness of the problem with government finances. Electors are used to being told that government spending will be increased and taxes lowered.
On point 1 - if only the LDs took that approach. They started out from that position and then rapidly shifted to sniping and opposing their Coalition partner blaming the partner for the cuts and not the state of govt finances. the LDs have become the party that lists all the reasons why coalitions are bad things and the voters agree with them so have largely deserted them.
snip
Sitting on the fence with folk at the top of your party sending mixed messages ends up with voters recoiling from you. Yes the Conservatives have public splits but the Lib Dem divisions are amongst the people running the party.
Duplicitous, untrustworthy? A party that prefers opposing, rather than taking tough decisions.
It would be a stupid mistake for Cameron to ramp up the "I will take us out the E.U" little immediate electoral gain, more demonstrating of weakness to the nutty brigade and a long term strategic error.
Cameron can ever win many of the UKIPpers back whatever he promises as they don't trust him.
It would be a stupid mistake for Cameron to ramp up the "I will take us out the E.U" little immediate electoral gain, more demonstrating of weakness to the nutty brigade and a long term strategic error.
"Little immediate electoral gain"! Every time Cameron has done something properly eurosceptic: vetoed the EU budget, block the fiscal treaty etc, he has seen a large boost in the polls. The UK public is on the side of the eurosceptics, and europhiles have to bend over backwards with justifications to pretend otherwise.
Imagine David Cameron announced that he would campaign for Britain to leave the European Union if his planned renegotiation of Britain's relationship with the EU was not a success. Would this make your opinion of him more positive, more negative or would it make no difference?
23% more positive 18% more negative
Not 50-50 at all... a clear lead for the eurosceptic position.
Not a clear lead at all
It's a bigger gap than Labour have over the Conservatives.
I would argue that Camerons VETO was a long term vote loser as all it did was inspire UKIP. Same will happen here.
It was a long term loser as he later backed down on it. As I said, europhiles have to bend over backwards to claim being eurosceptic is a loser: an obvious poll bounce was clear for all to see. UKIP's gains have come because Cameron has failed to be eurosceptic elsewhere, most notably on immigration.
Just got £100 on at 1/2 UKIP to win Rochester by-election with my local friendly William Hill betting shop.
Can't see the price lasting long. Reckless by name maybe, but he won't have chanced his political career on this move unless he was pretty sure he will still be in Parliament after the GE. I make him a 1/5 shot, or shorter. It's not as if any of the major Parties are popular; the tide's running UKIP's way and should carry him safely home, at the by and the GE.
It would be a stupid mistake for Cameron to ramp up the "I will take us out the E.U" little immediate electoral gain, more demonstrating of weakness to the nutty brigade and a long term strategic error.
"Little immediate electoral gain"! Every time Cameron has done something properly eurosceptic: vetoed the EU budget, block the fiscal treaty etc, he has seen a large boost in the polls.
Sure, for a week or two. Then the sceptics realize what he's specifically said or done has been over-hyped and is still way short of what they want, leaving him back where he started, except less trusted.
EdinT Thanks for that, better prepare to carpetbag from Hereford to Braintree then to fight off the Kipper and Miliband hordes! Probably a local councillor would be best if he does confirm he is stepping down Anyway, off for a swim
I hope @MrJones comes back soon. He was a very unPC voice when this site was full of it/name-calling anyone who disagreed with the levels of immigration a racist etc.
And he was right. It's horrible what's happened - but pretending it didn't is worse in my book.
I see that 12 schools in Tower Hamlets are under scrutiny as Trojan Horses - not a surprise, just amazed it's taken this long to out them.
In today's Sunday Times.
A lot of labour supporters on here often cite Tower Hamlets schools as those we should aspire to... I constantly compared them to the Birmingham schools, who were also very successful academically... The connection has long been there for anyone who wanted to make it
I hope everyone remember tim constantly telling me that East end schools were better because "thick white racists" had been moved out... Well turns out he was right, but ethnic cleansers aren't usually so boastful
Mark Pritchard @MPritchardMP The deluded. dull, dalek-like Doncaster diatribe from Mark Reckless is a fantastical betrayal of his constituents, helpers, and colleagues
Darren McCaffrey @DMcCaffreySKY Extraordinary scenes under heat from hostile press and local Tories Farage and Reckless have done a runner from Rochester centre. Video soon
Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie Mark Reckless is now being accompanied by a bodyguard down Rochester high street. He clearly doesn't view it a safe seat #c4news Retweeted by Michael Crick
Excellent to see the same people who criticised Farage for having a drink with a fewpeople after a conference and helping a disabled woman back to her hotel blaming the mirror for Brooks Newmark taking pictures of his dick and sending them to a girl half his age
And when did Mark Reckless first get criticised on PB?? About half four yesterday?? Do you realise what idiots you look?
Imagine how they'd react if Newmark joined ukip now...
The dirty old perv they're welcome to him!!!!
This is, of course, as nothing to reaction to child abuse by the BBC and Asian Muslims.
When it's Catholic priests doing it, worse thing in the World (I agree) and a specifically Catholic problem.
When it's BBC employees or Muslims doing it, it's a "social problem" and nothing to do with the BBC or Islam.
And when it's the BBC or Labour Councils covering up, neither faces calls for their removal from the public sphere, of course.
Miss Plato, quite. Norfolk desires an honour. I do wonder how many other situations like that there might be, though.
I don't think the race card has been corroded utterly, though. Recall the recent nonsense of UKIP being called euracist. There's also been less reporting of the racial aspect of Rotherham than there should've been.
Mark Pritchard @MPritchardMP The deluded. dull, dalek-like Doncaster diatribe from Mark Reckless is a fantastical betrayal of his constituents, helpers, and colleagues
Darren McCaffrey @DMcCaffreySKY Extraordinary scenes under heat from hostile press and local Tories Farage and Reckless have done a runner from Rochester centre. Video soon
Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie Mark Reckless is now being accompanied by a bodyguard down Rochester high street. He clearly doesn't view it a safe seat #c4news Retweeted by Michael Crick
The odds are in the thread header... Fill yer boots!
Mark Pritchard @MPritchardMP The deluded. dull, dalek-like Doncaster diatribe from Mark Reckless is a fantastical betrayal of his constituents, helpers, and colleagues
Darren McCaffrey @DMcCaffreySKY Extraordinary scenes under heat from hostile press and local Tories Farage and Reckless have done a runner from Rochester centre. Video soon
Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie Mark Reckless is now being accompanied by a bodyguard down Rochester high street. He clearly doesn't view it a safe seat #c4news Retweeted by Michael Crick
Did any pb Tories condemn Yesnp thugs during indyref? I'm struggling to remember. *innocent face*
Mark Pritchard @MPritchardMP The deluded. dull, dalek-like Doncaster diatribe from Mark Reckless is a fantastical betrayal of his constituents, helpers, and colleagues
Darren McCaffrey @DMcCaffreySKY Extraordinary scenes under heat from hostile press and local Tories Farage and Reckless have done a runner from Rochester centre. Video soon
Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie Mark Reckless is now being accompanied by a bodyguard down Rochester high street. He clearly doesn't view it a safe seat #c4news Retweeted by Michael Crick
I see that 12 schools in Tower Hamlets are under scrutiny as Trojan Horses - not a surprise, just amazed it's taken this long to out them.
In today's Sunday Times.
It appears the cry of "waaysist" has finally lost its power over government and media.
And not before time.
In an interview, he passed the credit to his editor, who had pushed it.
"Norfolk says he wasn’t unwilling to take up the story, but emphasises that it was “entirely driven” by Harding, who left The Times in December and is now head of news for the BBC."
Malcolm G Parties often claim they are ahead on postal votes at by elections etc, sharp eyed activists can often see where the crosses are being put through the ballot paper at verification, not technically illegal
It is illegal to count them and tell someone beforehand though. Pretty stupid of Davidson to admit on national TV that their agents had been counting them and passing on info to her and others , when it is against the law.
Mr. G., Having been involved in a face-down verification of postal votes I would say that it is impossible to count them. Of course, things might be done differently up there, but down here you have four people at a table on which is dumped a bin load of ballot papers. The four people then proceed to count the number of papers (papers not votes) into groups of 25 whilst at the same time as far as possible keeping them face down. One can get an impression, of course, of which way the votes are splitting (totally wrong in my case at the Euro Elections) but not a count.
Agents from the parties are not allowed nearer the tables than about a yard and the counting is done by people unconnected with any party and in any case would only at best count 25 of each load.. So unless you are telling us that massive rigging goes on in Scotland your idea that agents counted the votes rather fails.
Hurst , I have no clue or knowledge, only going by what I have read , heard on TV. Tory leader said their agents had reported to them that they well ahead on postal ballots according to what she said on TV and what is being reported in papers. Crown office and police investigating so concerns somewhere.
It would be a stupid mistake for Cameron to ramp up the "I will take us out the E.U" little immediate electoral gain, more demonstrating of weakness to the nutty brigade and a long term strategic error.
"Little immediate electoral gain"! Every time Cameron has done something properly eurosceptic: vetoed the EU budget, block the fiscal treaty etc, he has seen a large boost in the polls.
Sure, for a week or two. Then the sceptics realize what he's specifically said or done has been over-hyped and is still way short of what they want, leaving him back where he started, except less trusted.
The inevitably logic of that is that Cameron should do something that's genuinely lastingly eurosceptic, rather than just a show of euroscepticism. Then he'd get the bounce and it wouldn't recede.
It would be a stupid mistake for Cameron to ramp up the "I will take us out the E.U" little immediate electoral gain, more demonstrating of weakness to the nutty brigade and a long term strategic error.
"Little immediate electoral gain"! Every time Cameron has done something properly eurosceptic: vetoed the EU budget, block the fiscal treaty etc, he has seen a large boost in the polls.
Sure, for a week or two. Then the sceptics realize what he's specifically said or done has been over-hyped and is still way short of what they want, leaving him back where he started, except less trusted.
The inevitably logic of that is that Cameron should do something that's genuinely lastingly eurosceptic, rather than just a show of euroscepticism. Then he'd get the bounce and it wouldn't recede.
Exactly. To prove that even a shred of what he says isn't a pose.
It would be a stupid mistake for Cameron to ramp up the "I will take us out the E.U" little immediate electoral gain, more demonstrating of weakness to the nutty brigade and a long term strategic error.
"Little immediate electoral gain"! Every time Cameron has done something properly eurosceptic: vetoed the EU budget, block the fiscal treaty etc, he has seen a large boost in the polls.
Sure, for a week or two. Then the sceptics realize what he's specifically said or done has been over-hyped and is still way short of what they want, leaving him back where he started, except less trusted.
The inevitably logic of that is that Cameron should do something that's genuinely lastingly eurosceptic, rather than just a show of euroscepticism. Then he'd get the bounce and it wouldn't recede.
A bounce downwards you mean.
If the Tories want to fend off the UKIP threat then they've got to stop geing Farage lookie-likies.
It would be a stupid mistake for Cameron to ramp up the "I will take us out the E.U" little immediate electoral gain, more demonstrating of weakness to the nutty brigade and a long term strategic error.
"Little immediate electoral gain"! Every time Cameron has done something properly eurosceptic: vetoed the EU budget, block the fiscal treaty etc, he has seen a large boost in the polls.
Sure, for a week or two. Then the sceptics realize what he's specifically said or done has been over-hyped and is still way short of what they want, leaving him back where he started, except less trusted.
The inevitably logic of that is that Cameron should do something that's genuinely lastingly eurosceptic, rather than just a show of euroscepticism. Then he'd get the bounce and it wouldn't recede.
The sceptics want to leave the EU. Cameron wants to stay in the EU. That's a difference that can't be split, and making the occasional gesture in their direction is just making him look ridiculous.
Except other than pulling the UK out of the EU he cannot do that. Nothing else will suffice. And as that would be a disaster for the Tories he would be better off doing nothing.
Me neither. I think it's mostly actually about *culture* not *race*
I don't have any problem with someone because of their skin colour - but I was really nervous around a middle aged white-Muslim convert who worked for me, as I didn't know what was going to upset him/get accused of doing something that the PC crowd didn't like.
It was weird. Never felt that way about anyone else - and given I'm a quiet atheist, it wasn't his religious views that bothered me. It was all the baggage and PCness that went with it.
Miss Plato, quite. Norfolk desires an honour. I do wonder how many other situations like that there might be, though.
I don't think the race card has been corroded utterly, though. Recall the recent nonsense of UKIP being called euracist. There's also been less reporting of the racial aspect of Rotherham than there should've been.
It would be a stupid mistake for Cameron to ramp up the "I will take us out the E.U" little immediate electoral gain, more demonstrating of weakness to the nutty brigade and a long term strategic error.
"Little immediate electoral gain"! Every time Cameron has done something properly eurosceptic: vetoed the EU budget, block the fiscal treaty etc, he has seen a large boost in the polls.
Sure, for a week or two. Then the sceptics realize what he's specifically said or done has been over-hyped and is still way short of what they want, leaving him back where he started, except less trusted.
The inevitably logic of that is that Cameron should do something that's genuinely lastingly eurosceptic, rather than just a show of euroscepticism. Then he'd get the bounce and it wouldn't recede.
A bounce downwards you mean.
If the Tories want to fend off the UKIP threat then they've got to stop geing Farage lookie-likies.
Mark Pritchard @MPritchardMP The deluded. dull, dalek-like Doncaster diatribe from Mark Reckless is a fantastical betrayal of his constituents, helpers, and colleagues
Darren McCaffrey @DMcCaffreySKY Extraordinary scenes under heat from hostile press and local Tories Farage and Reckless have done a runner from Rochester centre. Video soon
Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie Mark Reckless is now being accompanied by a bodyguard down Rochester high street. He clearly doesn't view it a safe seat #c4news Retweeted by Michael Crick
The odds are in the thread header... Fill yer boots!
If the Tories choose a plausible candidate then I will. But get ready my friend for the tons of manure that'll be poured over Mr Reckless in the coming weeks.
This is so unlike Carsewll for whom I have a great respect
It would be a stupid mistake for Cameron to ramp up the "I will take us out the E.U" little immediate electoral gain, more demonstrating of weakness to the nutty brigade and a long term strategic error.
"Little immediate electoral gain"! Every time Cameron has done something properly eurosceptic: vetoed the EU budget, block the fiscal treaty etc, he has seen a large boost in the polls.
Sure, for a week or two. Then the sceptics realize what he's specifically said or done has been over-hyped and is still way short of what they want, leaving him back where he started, except less trusted.
The inevitably logic of that is that Cameron should do something that's genuinely lastingly eurosceptic, rather than just a show of euroscepticism. Then he'd get the bounce and it wouldn't recede.
A bounce downwards you mean.
If the Tories want to fend off the UKIP threat then they've got to stop geing Farage lookie-likies.
What's the evidence for this assertion?
Maria Hutchings in Eastleigh. The CON candidate is S Thanet.
Mark Pritchard @MPritchardMP The deluded. dull, dalek-like Doncaster diatribe from Mark Reckless is a fantastical betrayal of his constituents, helpers, and colleagues
Darren McCaffrey @DMcCaffreySKY Extraordinary scenes under heat from hostile press and local Tories Farage and Reckless have done a runner from Rochester centre. Video soon
Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie Mark Reckless is now being accompanied by a bodyguard down Rochester high street. He clearly doesn't view it a safe seat #c4news Retweeted by Michael Crick
The odds are in the thread header... Fill yer boots!
If the Tories choose a plausible candidate then I will. But get ready my friend for the tons of manure that'll be poured over Mr Reckless in the coming weeks.
This is so unlike Carsewll for whom I have a great respect
Oh are you TCPoliticalBetting?
If the Tories choose a plausible candidate then the odds will change to reflect that I would think, but good luck. I haven't had a bet on it.
The manure poured over ukip is nothing new, it happened before we won the euros... Just fuels the anti establishment image, whether that image is justified or not.
Did you clock that when you accused/reprimanded me for linking betfair Sportsbook odds that I hadn't, and did indeed use the exchange? I didn't see the acknowledgement of your error that's all
Spell his name correctly if you respect him so much!
It would be a stupid mistake for Cameron to ramp up the "I will take us out the E.U" little immediate electoral gain, more demonstrating of weakness to the nutty brigade and a long term strategic error.
"Little immediate electoral gain"! Every time Cameron has done something properly eurosceptic: vetoed the EU budget, block the fiscal treaty etc, he has seen a large boost in the polls.
Sure, for a week or two. Then the sceptics realize what he's specifically said or done has been over-hyped and is still way short of what they want, leaving him back where he started, except less trusted.
The inevitably logic of that is that Cameron should do something that's genuinely lastingly eurosceptic, rather than just a show of euroscepticism. Then he'd get the bounce and it wouldn't recede.
A bounce downwards you mean.
If the Tories want to fend off the UKIP threat then they've got to stop geing Farage lookie-likies.
What's the evidence for this assertion?
Maria Hutchings in Eastleigh. The CON candidate is S Thanet.
Mike
There was a small item in the Sunday Times today indicating that local polling in Eastleigh puts her ahead. Heard anything?
Let's have a look at the next set of by elections shall we. All the UKIP have been able to do in the north is get the anti Labour vote to coalesce around them.
It is nothing more than a Tory fantasy that UKIP will do to Labour in the north what it is doing to The Tories everywhere else.
Imagine David Cameron announced that he would campaign for Britain to leave the European Union if his planned renegotiation of Britain's relationship with the EU was not a success. Would this make your opinion of him more positive, more negative or would it make no difference?
23% more positive 18% more negative
Not 50-50 at all... a clear lead for the eurosceptic position.
Not a clear lead at all
It's a bigger gap than Labour have over the Conservatives.
Its also probably nonsense. Farage can pick off Tories but is desperate not to get pigeoned as only appealing to Tories. So he ramps up that he is taking on Labour.
Mark Pritchard @MPritchardMP The deluded. dull, dalek-like Doncaster diatribe from Mark Reckless is a fantastical betrayal of his constituents, helpers, and colleagues
Darren McCaffrey @DMcCaffreySKY Extraordinary scenes under heat from hostile press and local Tories Farage and Reckless have done a runner from Rochester centre. Video soon
Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie Mark Reckless is now being accompanied by a bodyguard down Rochester high street. He clearly doesn't view it a safe seat #c4news Retweeted by Michael Crick
Did any pb Tories condemn Yesnp thugs during indyref? I'm struggling to remember. *innocent face*
Not seen what happened so how can any party folk condemn it? But if Reckless finds it difficult to walk about his campaign will be in trouble. His local party seem to be 90% against him.
F1: I'll put up an early thoughts post on Japan. Most of it will be a critical analysis of why I've had a rough patch of late (bad luck or misjudgement).
It would be a stupid mistake for Cameron to ramp up the "I will take us out the E.U" little immediate electoral gain, more demonstrating of weakness to the nutty brigade and a long term strategic error.
"Little immediate electoral gain"! Every time Cameron has done something properly eurosceptic: vetoed the EU budget, block the fiscal treaty etc, he has seen a large boost in the polls.
Sure, for a week or two. Then the sceptics realize what he's specifically said or done has been over-hyped and is still way short of what they want, leaving him back where he started, except less trusted.
The inevitably logic of that is that Cameron should do something that's genuinely lastingly eurosceptic, rather than just a show of euroscepticism. Then he'd get the bounce and it wouldn't recede.
A bounce downwards you mean.
If the Tories want to fend off the UKIP threat then they've got to stop geing Farage lookie-likies.
What's the evidence for this assertion?
Maria Hutchings in Eastleigh. The CON candidate is S Thanet.
That doesn't support your assertion that a genuinely and permanently pro-British policy from Cameron would result in a long term 'bounce down' in the polls. Maria Hutchings may have been euro-sceptic, but she was standing for a party without genuine euro-sceptic credentials to back her up.
Mark Pritchard @MPritchardMP The deluded. dull, dalek-like Doncaster diatribe from Mark Reckless is a fantastical betrayal of his constituents, helpers, and colleagues
I just watched Mr Reckless' conference speech. I thought it was OK.
Whoever this potential Labour defector is, it's probably someone with a history of making slightly politically incorrect statements.
And who also thinks the rich pay too much tax? Apart from Peter Mandelson (not an MP, of course) I'm struggling to think of anyone in the Labour ranks who would match up.
Unfortunately there are no GE seat spreads available yet but where would you set it for UKIP right now.
I would be a buyer at 6 if available. Overegging it?
Clacton and South Thanet are odds on... About 1/6 and 4/5
I think Thurrock should be odds on now as well. 7/4 is massive, I'd have it 4/6
S Bas and E Thurrock is still big odds considering it has a better profile than Thurrock...
Boston and Skegness has a 20 pt lead according to Farage
He also showed polling that puts ukip ahead in Eastleigh... Although Disne James isn't standing there... Wherever she is standing should be worth looking at as she is an obviously worthy candidate
Perhaps Portsmouth South for her.
Great Grimsby, Castle point, Dudley North, North Thanet, Rochester and Strood, Basildon &Billericay...
Hornchurch and Upminster was polled by the cons recently... I know that because I was one of them...
If you think 6 is a buy then just have a massive bet on5 or more. It's still odds against
I'd be surprised by double figures and amazed at less than three
Whoever this potential Labour defector is, it's probably someone with a history of making slightly politically incorrect statements.
We'll find the next defector soon it seems:
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 59m "When's the Prime Minister's speech?" Nigel Farage teases, when I ask him whether & when we'll hear of more defections to Ukip
Let's have a look at the next set of by elections shall we. All the UKIP have been able to do in the north is get the anti Labour vote to coalesce around them.
It is nothing more than a Tory fantasy that UKIP will do to Labour in the north what it is doing to The Tories everywhere else.
Getting the anti-incumbent vote to coalesce around you can cause a lot of problems for the incumbent. That's how the Conservatives used to lose seats to the Lib Dems.
It would be a stupid mistake for Cameron to ramp up the "I will take us out the E.U" little immediate electoral gain, more demonstrating of weakness to the nutty brigade and a long term strategic error.
"Little immediate electoral gain"! Every time Cameron has done something properly eurosceptic: vetoed the EU budget, block the fiscal treaty etc, he has seen a large boost in the polls.
Sure, for a week or two. Then the sceptics realize what he's specifically said or done has been over-hyped and is still way short of what they want, leaving him back where he started, except less trusted.
The inevitably logic of that is that Cameron should do something that's genuinely lastingly eurosceptic, rather than just a show of euroscepticism. Then he'd get the bounce and it wouldn't recede.
A bounce downwards you mean.
If the Tories want to fend off the UKIP threat then they've got to stop geing Farage lookie-likies.
What's the evidence for this assertion?
Maria Hutchings in Eastleigh. The CON candidate is S Thanet.
That doesn't support your assertion that a genuinely and permanently pro-British policy from Cameron would result in a long term 'bounce down' in the polls. Maria Hutchings may have been euro-sceptic, but she was standing for a party without genuine euro-sceptic credentials to back her up.
She also had no local party to speak of and that Europhile Cameron following her round, undermining her Eurosceptic credibility and social conservatism.
Cameron is toxic to any attempt to build a right wing coalition and the centre left is well catered for in parties.
Malcolm G Parties often claim they are ahead on postal votes at by elections etc, sharp eyed activists can often see where the crosses are being put through the ballot paper at verification, not technically illegal
It is illegal to count them and tell someone beforehand though. Pretty stupid of Davidson to admit on national TV that their agents had been counting them and passing on info to her and others , when it is against the law.
Mr. G., Having been involved in a face-down verification of postal votes I would say that it is impossible to count them. Of course, things might be done differently up there, but down here you have four people at a table on which is dumped a bin load of ballot papers. The four people then proceed to count the number of papers (papers not votes) into groups of 25 whilst at the same time as far as possible keeping them face down. One can get an impression, of course, of which way the votes are splitting (totally wrong in my case at the Euro Elections) but not a count.
Agents from the parties are not allowed nearer the tables than about a yard and the counting is done by people unconnected with any party and in any case would only at best count 25 of each load.. So unless you are telling us that massive rigging goes on in Scotland your idea that agents counted the votes rather fails.
Hurst , I have no clue or knowledge, only going by what I have read , heard on TV. Tory leader said their agents had reported to them that they well ahead on postal ballots according to what she said on TV and what is being reported in papers. Crown office and police investigating so concerns somewhere.
Ruthie stated on live tv that 'agents had been able to "take tallies" of postal ballots which she said was "very positive" for her side.
Ms Davidson told the Scotland Decides programme: "We have had people at every sample opening around the country over the last few weeks... and we have been incredibly encouraged by the results from that.
"Going into today, going by the postal votes that were cast, our side would have had a lead and I think that we have a confidence, I hope a quiet confidence, that the quiet majority of Scots have spoken today."
One big gain for Ukip is that two by-elections will keep them in the news for a month or two. Unless they lose badly, that can only be to their advantage.
It would be a stupid mistake for Cameron to ramp up the "I will take us out the E.U" little immediate electoral gain, more demonstrating of weakness to the nutty brigade and a long term strategic error.
"Little immediate electoral gain"! Every time Cameron has done something properly eurosceptic: vetoed the EU budget, block the fiscal treaty etc, he has seen a large boost in the polls.
Sure, for a week or two. Then the sceptics realize what he's specifically said or done has been over-hyped and is still way short of what they want, leaving him back where he started, except less trusted.
The inevitably logic of that is that Cameron should do something that's genuinely lastingly eurosceptic, rather than just a show of euroscepticism. Then he'd get the bounce and it wouldn't recede.
The sceptics want to leave the EU. Cameron wants to stay in the EU. That's a difference that can't be split, and making the occasional gesture in their direction is just making him look ridiculous.
I think you are correct, Mr. Tokyo. But what else can Cameron do, admit his party his hopelessly split? He has had years to work this out and maybe even resolve it, but as ever he has ducked the issue. It would seem that being rather good as PM involves taking as few decisions as possible, at least in the world of Cameron.
As an aside, I do hope someone asks him how Libya is getting on. He seems to want to tell us that failed states generate terrorist threats for the UK and so we must go to war again (and again without a plan, or even an idea, of how to win). Well, he created the failed state in Libya, complete with providing the environment where some chap from Manchester can set up his own AQ training camps with 200-300 members.
Mark Pritchard @MPritchardMP The deluded. dull, dalek-like Doncaster diatribe from Mark Reckless is a fantastical betrayal of his constituents, helpers, and colleagues
Darren McCaffrey @DMcCaffreySKY Extraordinary scenes under heat from hostile press and local Tories Farage and Reckless have done a runner from Rochester centre. Video soon
Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie Mark Reckless is now being accompanied by a bodyguard down Rochester high street. He clearly doesn't view it a safe seat #c4news Retweeted by Michael Crick
My socialist niece is probably booing him from her flat above. Incidentally I think there is a danger that outsiders view all Kent seats and the Eastern counties in general as being the same. Tories are not that unpopular in Medway which has a selective education authority. There are still a number of defence related jobs in the area although with the recent defence spending cuts that is less of a factor than it was.. There is also a strong traditional Labour vote in the constituency and it has a history of hard fought Tory/Lab battles both locally and in the various parliamentary seats. Not to say Reckless won't win but it's no shoo-in unlike the dead cert for UKIP at Frinton-on -Sea
Whoever this potential Labour defector is, it's probably someone with a history of making slightly politically incorrect statements.
Alternatively, someone who is known to be euro sceptic (perhaps pro-withdrawal) in order to protect the local workforce's rights and incomes.
This lot all voted for a referendum:
Ronnie Campbell Rosie Cooper Jeremy Corbyn Jon Cruddas John Cryer Ian Davidson Natascha Engel Frank Field Roger Godsiff Kate Hoey Kelvin Hopkins Steve McCabe John McDonnell Austin Mitchell Dennis Skinner Andrew Smith Graham Stringer Gisela Stuart Mike Wood
Unfortunately there are no GE seat spreads available yet but where would you set it for UKIP right now.
I would be a buyer at 6 if available. Overegging it?
Clacton and South Thanet are odds on... About 1/6 and 4/5
I think Thurrock should be odds on now as well. 7/4 is massive, I'd have it 4/6
S Bas and E Thurrock is still big odds considering it has a better profile than Thurrock...
Boston and Skegness has a 20 pt lead according to Farage
He also showed polling that puts ukip ahead in Eastleigh... Although Disne James isn't standing there... Wherever she is standing should be worth looking at as she is an obviously worthy candidate
Perhaps Portsmouth South for her.
Great Grimsby, Castle point, Dudley North, North Thanet, Rochester and Strood, Basildon &Billericay...
Hornchurch and Upminster was polled by the cons recently... I know that because I was one of them...
If you think 6 is a buy then just have a massive bet on5 or more. It's still odds against
I'd be surprised by double figures and amazed at less than three
Thanks Isam
>5 on Betfair wins me a pony in an all-green book. My best strategy now is to try and pick off the likely constituencies.
I think Clacton, S Thanet and Rochester are gimmes. Eastleigh looks good too. Beyond that it gets tricky.
I'll have a look at your suggestions. I'm already on Cleethorpes 33/1, Eastleigh 8/1 and Kettering 12/1 but they could be 'strong seconds' which would be a bit of a bummer.
Whoever this potential Labour defector is, it's probably someone with a history of making slightly politically incorrect statements.
We'll find the next defector soon it seems:
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 59m "When's the Prime Minister's speech?" Nigel Farage teases, when I ask him whether & when we'll hear of more defections to Ukip
"Senior Kipper told me to re-read chapter on defections in '95 book on SDP. In Oct 1981, after Lab conf, 7 defected to SDP, 11 by xmas. Hmm."
It would be a stupid mistake for Cameron to ramp up the "I will take us out the E.U" little immediate electoral gain, more demonstrating of weakness to the nutty brigade and a long term strategic error.
"Little immediate electoral gain"! Every time Cameron has done something properly eurosceptic: vetoed the EU budget, block the fiscal treaty etc, he has seen a large boost in the polls.
Sure, for a week or two. Then the sceptics realize what he's specifically said or done has been over-hyped and is still way short of what they want, leaving him back where he started, except less trusted.
The inevitably logic of that is that Cameron should do something that's genuinely lastingly eurosceptic, rather than just a show of euroscepticism. Then he'd get the bounce and it wouldn't recede.
The sceptics want to leave the EU. Cameron wants to stay in the EU. That's a difference that can't be split, and making the occasional gesture in their direction is just making him look ridiculous.
That difficulty only persists as long as Cameron, or someone with similar EU views, is leader. The Conservatives should remember this. If they choose someone who is genuinely a proper eurosceptic as leader to follow him, then they can pick up these votes, and, as an added bonus, have a leader who actually agrees with his party. The membership and activist base both want to leave, and their party gains in the polls by being eurosceptic. The lesson is obviously to choose someone who wants to leave as the next leader. The only way to stop the Tory splits over Europe is to have a party that's unified from top to bottom in wanting to leave.
Whoever this potential Labour defector is, it's probably someone with a history of making slightly politically incorrect statements.
We'll find the next defector soon it seems:
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 59m "When's the Prime Minister's speech?" Nigel Farage teases, when I ask him whether & when we'll hear of more defections to Ukip
The Tories should do a last minute timing change, and swap Cameron's speech around with another high profile one.
Just got £100 on at 1/2 UKIP to win Rochester by-election with my local friendly William Hill betting shop.
Can't see the price lasting long. Reckless by name maybe, but he won't have chanced his political career on this move unless he was pretty sure he will still be in Parliament after the GE. I make him a 1/5 shot, or shorter. It's not as if any of the major Parties are popular; the tide's running UKIP's way and should carry him safely home, at the by and the GE.
£3k available at 4/9 on Betfair if you're interested.
"Rank in Ukip-friendly [Demograhics] list: Clacton = 1 Rotherham = 66 Thanet N = 92 Thanet S = 142 Heywood & Midd = 148 Rochester & S = 271 Eastleigh = 324"
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/516175786077081600
I don't know what criteria he uses but I'm not sure how an area where UKIP romped first in the European elections isn't in the top 250 UKIP friendly seats.
Unfortunately there are no GE seat spreads available yet but where would you set it for UKIP right now.
I would be a buyer at 6 if available. Overegging it?
Thanks Isam
>5 on Betfair wins me a pony in an all-green book. My best strategy now is to try and pick off the likely constituencies.
I think Clacton, S Thanet and Rochester are gimmes. Eastleigh looks good too. Beyond that it gets tricky.
I'll have a look at your suggestions. I'm already on Cleethorpes 33/1, Eastleigh 8/1 and Kettering 12/1 but they could be 'strong seconds' which would be a bit of a bummer.
Its funny that Diane James isn't standing in Eastleigh.. the Survation polling has UKIP nicely in front
You need to be on Thurrock at 7/4, and S Bas and E Thurrock at bigger than 5s
Basildon and Billericay... John Baron MP is a likely defector
About 18 months ago I tried to identify seats UKIP might do well in, here were the best ones according to my untested system
Clacton and Rochester didn't feature as UKIP didn't stand
Barking Boston & Skegness Bromsgrove Dag & Rain Lads 20s Dudley North 20@25s McL Halesown & Rowley Regis Morley & Outwood Lads are 33s Newcastle Under Lyme Plymouth Moor View 16s S Bas & E Thurrock 100@20 Up Lads Staffordshire Moorlands Stoke on Trent South Telford £40@25s Lads UP Thanet North Thanet South 5/2 Thurrock PP £50@16 £75@16 Walsall North Lads are 16s Walsall South West Bromwich West Wolverhampton NE 33s
These were my 2nd bests
Bexhill & Battle Birmingham Yardley McLads 100 Bournemouth East Bridgewater & W Somerset Brirmingham Northfield Broadland Burton Cannock Chase Christchurch Dartford Dover East Devon Erith & Thamesmead Folkestone & Hythe Great Yarmouth Hastings & Rye Hx & Upm Kingswood Ludlow N Devon McLads 20 N Warks Lads are 50s Newton Abbot Lads are 50s Peterborough Poole SE Cornwall McLads ar 33s Solihull Spelthorne Stoke on Trent Central Stoke on Trent North Stourbridge Torridge & W Devon Totnes Wells Lads are 50s West Brom East West Suffolk
Comments
I hope everyone remember tim constantly telling me that East end schools were better because "thick white racists" had been moved out... Well turns out he was right, but ethnic cleansers aren't usually so boastful
"Please indicate whether you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following."
Green Party: +27% / -29%
Labour: +30% / -43%
UKIP: +27% / -43%
The EU: +23% / -45%
Conservative Party: +25% / -48%
(No LD question?)
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/IoS_SM_Political_Poll_28th_September_2014_8723.pdf
They are under scrutiny, it doesn't mean they are guilty?
Quite an epiphany for me. I was very conflicted about where I stood. Finally, I jumped and joined the Blue Team. I'm a real In For A Penny/In For A Pound sort and felt much better afterwards.
You offered a bet last night under/over 47.5% on UKIP in R&S
I was out and haven't really got an opinion on it to be honest... I'd only be backing over out of ukip bravado, I don't know what the right level should be
I think your guess at the bookie odds was about 1/3 ukip, so not a mile away from the hills and lads prices... What do you fancy there?
Thanks :-)
Agents from the parties are not allowed nearer the tables than about a yard and the counting is done by people unconnected with any party and in any case would only at best count 25 of each load.. So unless you are telling us that massive rigging goes on in Scotland your idea that agents counted the votes rather fails.
It would be a stupid mistake for Cameron to ramp up the "I will take us out the E.U" little immediate electoral gain, more demonstrating of weakness to the nutty brigade and a long term strategic error.
Turns out tim was "probably" right
Right or wrong, we don't know?
That is why they are under scrutiny...to find out.
"seem to remember" might have included @CarlottaVance's post, so it might be wise to discount it
twitter.com/Survation/status/516147573233844224
And he was right. It's horrible what's happened - but pretending it didn't is worse in my book.
We were speaking of Kevin Spacey on a previous thread - he does a superb Jack Nicholson impersonation. And Christopher Walken
youtube.com/watch?v=8KooaRwGO40
I would argue that Camerons VETO was a long term vote loser as all it did was inspire UKIP. Same will happen here.
Can't see the price lasting long. Reckless by name maybe, but he won't have chanced his political career on this move unless he was pretty sure he will still be in Parliament after the GE. I make him a 1/5 shot, or shorter. It's not as if any of the major Parties are popular; the tide's running UKIP's way and should carry him safely home, at the by and the GE.
And not before time.
He says that Mr Farage is on the verge of getting a senior Labour defector. And thinks he knows who it is [but isn't saying]
Well worth a read.
He's been banned for mentioning it!!!
And I'm delighted. Being too scared to out the truth has been corrosive.
TBH, I think The Times' Andrew Norfolk deserves enormous credit to taking it on. He should get a gong for his work re Rotherham et al.
Mark Pritchard @MPritchardMP
The deluded. dull, dalek-like Doncaster diatribe from Mark Reckless is a fantastical betrayal of his constituents, helpers, and colleagues
Darren McCaffrey @DMcCaffreySKY
Extraordinary scenes under heat from hostile press and local Tories Farage and Reckless have done a runner from Rochester centre. Video soon
Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie
Mark Reckless is now being accompanied by a bodyguard down Rochester high street. He clearly doesn't view it a safe seat #c4news
Retweeted by Michael Crick
When it's Catholic priests doing it, worse thing in the World (I agree) and a specifically Catholic problem.
When it's BBC employees or Muslims doing it, it's a "social problem" and nothing to do with the BBC or Islam.
And when it's the BBC or Labour Councils covering up, neither faces calls for their removal from the public sphere, of course.
I don't think the race card has been corroded utterly, though. Recall the recent nonsense of UKIP being called euracist. There's also been less reporting of the racial aspect of Rotherham than there should've been.
Famously the insult that provoked Ronnie Kray to kill George Cornell. Truth was no mitigation.
knighthood for Nick Griffin?
*innocent face*
He deserves all he gets.
"Norfolk says he wasn’t unwilling to take up the story, but emphasises that it was “entirely driven” by Harding, who left The Times in December and is now head of news for the BBC."
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/more-two-years-‘vindicated’-times-sex-abuse-investigation-nearing-end
An uncharacteristic inaccuracy, Decrepit.
Ronnie wasn't fat.
If the Tories want to fend off the UKIP threat then they've got to stop geing Farage lookie-likies.
And the Tory reaction to Reckless is both understandable but entirely stupid. Gotta try and build those bridges.
Except other than pulling the UK out of the EU he cannot do that. Nothing else will suffice. And as that would be a disaster for the Tories he would be better off doing nothing.
I don't have any problem with someone because of their skin colour - but I was really nervous around a middle aged white-Muslim convert who worked for me, as I didn't know what was going to upset him/get accused of doing something that the PC crowd didn't like.
It was weird. Never felt that way about anyone else - and given I'm a quiet atheist, it wasn't his religious views that bothered me. It was all the baggage and PCness that went with it.
Unfortunately there are no GE seat spreads available yet but where would you set it for UKIP right now.
I would be a buyer at 6 if available. Overegging it?
This is so unlike Carsewll for whom I have a great respect
If the Tories choose a plausible candidate then the odds will change to reflect that I would think, but good luck. I haven't had a bet on it.
The manure poured over ukip is nothing new, it happened before we won the euros... Just fuels the anti establishment image, whether that image is justified or not.
Did you clock that when you accused/reprimanded me for linking betfair Sportsbook odds that I hadn't, and did indeed use the exchange? I didn't see the acknowledgement of your error that's all
Spell his name correctly if you respect him so much!
There was a small item in the Sunday Times today indicating that local polling in Eastleigh puts her ahead. Heard anything?
She looks a good bet at 3/1.
All the cool kids are atheists. Or Pastafarians.
Let's have a look at the next set of by elections shall we. All the UKIP have been able to do in the north is get the anti Labour vote to coalesce around them.
It is nothing more than a Tory fantasy that UKIP will do to Labour in the north what it is doing to The Tories everywhere else.
Its also probably nonsense. Farage can pick off Tories but is desperate not to get pigeoned as only appealing to Tories. So he ramps up that he is taking on Labour.
http://youtu.be/K76v3UG1t58
I think Thurrock should be odds on now as well. 7/4 is massive, I'd have it 4/6
S Bas and E Thurrock is still big odds considering it has a better profile than Thurrock...
Boston and Skegness has a 20 pt lead according to Farage
He also showed polling that puts ukip ahead in Eastleigh... Although Disne James isn't standing there... Wherever she is standing should be worth looking at as she is an obviously worthy candidate
Perhaps Portsmouth South for her.
Great Grimsby, Castle point, Dudley North, North Thanet, Rochester and Strood, Basildon &Billericay...
Hornchurch and Upminster was polled by the cons recently... I know that because I was one of them...
If you think 6 is a buy then just have a massive bet on5 or more. It's still odds against
I'd be surprised by double figures and amazed at less than three
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 59m
"When's the Prime Minister's speech?" Nigel Farage teases, when I ask him whether & when we'll hear of more defections to Ukip
All my losing bets or recent times have been on UKIP. All mouth and little delivery
Yes indeed i do. I laid your son Robert 11/2 they'd win in Wythenshawe.... You were meant to pay me at Dirty Dicks, but alas no money was forthcoming
Also laid over 26.5 in the euros to Quincel and pulpstar on the back of a dodgy ICM poll that showed them on 20
Oh and I laid them on betfair at 11/4 for Heywood and Middleton
Cameron is toxic to any attempt to build a right wing coalition and the centre left is well catered for in parties.
Ms Davidson told the Scotland Decides programme: "We have had people at every sample opening around the country over the last few weeks... and we have been incredibly encouraged by the results from that.
"Going into today, going by the postal votes that were cast, our side would have had a lead and I think that we have a confidence, I hope a quiet confidence, that the quiet majority of Scots have spoken today."
http://tinyurl.com/km28unh
Extremely stupid at the very least.
One big gain for Ukip is that two by-elections will keep them in the news for a month or two. Unless they lose badly, that can only be to their advantage.
As an aside, I do hope someone asks him how Libya is getting on. He seems to want to tell us that failed states generate terrorist threats for the UK and so we must go to war again (and again without a plan, or even an idea, of how to win). Well, he created the failed state in Libya, complete with providing the environment where some chap from Manchester can set up his own AQ training camps with 200-300 members.
This lot all voted for a referendum:
Ronnie Campbell
Rosie Cooper
Jeremy Corbyn
Jon Cruddas
John Cryer
Ian Davidson
Natascha Engel
Frank Field
Roger Godsiff
Kate Hoey
Kelvin Hopkins
Steve McCabe
John McDonnell
Austin Mitchell
Dennis Skinner
Andrew Smith
Graham Stringer
Gisela Stuart
Mike Wood
>5 on Betfair wins me a pony in an all-green book. My best strategy now is to try and pick off the likely constituencies.
I think Clacton, S Thanet and Rochester are gimmes. Eastleigh looks good too. Beyond that it gets tricky.
I'll have a look at your suggestions. I'm already on Cleethorpes 33/1, Eastleigh 8/1 and Kettering 12/1 but they could be 'strong seconds' which would be a bit of a bummer.
Clacton = 1
Rotherham = 66
Thanet N = 92
Thanet S = 142
Heywood & Midd = 148
Rochester & S = 271
Eastleigh = 324"
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/516175786077081600
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/515959413208014848
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/09/dr-robert-ford-and-dr-matthew-goodwin-the-top-100-most-ukip-friendly-conservative-seats.html
UKIP-friendly Labour seats.
http://labourlist.org/2014/09/the-top-100-ukip-leaning-labour-seats/
Peter Henley @BBCPeterH · 44s
Lord Ashcroft - 4 types of Tories - Loyalists - core vote, Joiners - pro-Cameron, poss UKIP Defectors and Considerers
Mark Reckless deserves to be spoken in the same breath as Philby, Maclean et al.
You need to be on Thurrock at 7/4, and S Bas and E Thurrock at bigger than 5s
Basildon and Billericay... John Baron MP is a likely defector
About 18 months ago I tried to identify seats UKIP might do well in, here were the best ones according to my untested system
Clacton and Rochester didn't feature as UKIP didn't stand
Barking
Boston & Skegness
Bromsgrove
Dag & Rain Lads 20s
Dudley North 20@25s McL
Halesown & Rowley Regis
Morley & Outwood Lads are 33s
Newcastle Under Lyme
Plymouth Moor View 16s
S Bas & E Thurrock 100@20 Up Lads
Staffordshire Moorlands
Stoke on Trent South
Telford £40@25s Lads UP
Thanet North
Thanet South 5/2
Thurrock PP £50@16 £75@16
Walsall North Lads are 16s
Walsall South
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton NE 33s
These were my 2nd bests
Bexhill & Battle
Birmingham Yardley McLads 100
Bournemouth East
Bridgewater & W Somerset
Brirmingham Northfield
Broadland
Burton
Cannock Chase
Christchurch
Dartford
Dover
East Devon
Erith & Thamesmead
Folkestone & Hythe
Great Yarmouth
Hastings & Rye
Hx & Upm
Kingswood
Ludlow
N Devon McLads 20
N Warks Lads are 50s
Newton Abbot Lads are 50s
Peterborough
Poole
SE Cornwall McLads ar 33s
Solihull
Spelthorne
Stoke on Trent Central
Stoke on Trent North
Stourbridge
Torridge & W Devon
Totnes
Wells Lads are 50s
West Brom East
West Suffolk
Peter Henley @BBCPeterH · 56s
Marginal poll by @LordAshcroft shows Cons winning Mid Dorset from LD, but swing from Cons to LD at Eastleigh
Peter Henley @BBCPeterH · 15s
Cons would lose Brighton Kemptown to Labour and fail to win overall majority according to @LordAPolls