Retaining Senate control would be a huge boost for Biden – politicalbetting.com
Retaining Senate control would be a huge boost for Biden – politicalbetting.com
We are just over a month away from the November 8th US mid-term elections when generally, as the table above indicates, the party of the incumbent president does not do well.
Comments
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First, much like Politicians once washed up on the shore of the shrewd Smithson.0
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Second, like Elisabeth wasn’t in Scotland.0
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Nor was she Elisabeth.0
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HARRISONBURG, Va. – Gerald Leonard Drake, 63, from Winchester, was indicted Thursday for planting a pipe bomb at a Civil War reenactment event in 2017.
Drake purported to be a member of Antifa, was a member of the org he threatened to bomb.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BradKutner/status/15781517920675635210 -
4th Like the Tories in GE242
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A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."
0 -
Funny how you always forget the Green and Alba votes, plus the 38% of Scottish Labour voters who are pro-independence, plus a few pp of the SLD and SCon votes.HYUFD said:
Nope. The latest Yougov Scottish Westminster poll has the SNP on 45%, ie only those who voted Yes in 2014.StuartDickson said:
You’re stuck in the past.HYUFD said:
The SNP are still on roughly the 45% Yes got in 2014.StuartDickson said:
I love Unionists who lack ambition 😄HYUFD said:
Nationalists will stick with Nationalist parties ie SNP and Green.StuartDickson said:
Fair point. But it is a dreadful strategy.HYUFD said:
Given the shift of SCon voters to SLAB over recent weeks the percentage of SLAB voters pro independence will now be much less than 38%StuartDickson said:
Wise advice.Taz said:
Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:
You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.StuartDickson said:
Yes there is.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:
Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.StuartDickson said:
That was before Iraq and Better Together.Scott_xP said:SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”
Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016
Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.
The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
Instead Anas has conducted a purge of pro-independence candidates and members. Odd behaviour when 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence.
Starmer is fishing in a pool of soft SCons, which is approx 8pp, at best. Instead, he should be trying to win back the voters his party lost to the SNP and Greens post-Better Together, approx 25pp.
But hey, what do I know?
Starmer and Sarwar have instead now achieved the more realistic goal of making Scottish Labour the main Unionist party in Scotland again and the main alternative to the SNP
Your mistake is to think that everyone in Scotland is either a Unionist or a Nationalist. They’re really, really not. The normal people in the middle far outweigh the 100% convinced ends of the spectrum. The SNP and Greens at least make an honest effort to appeal to Middle Scotland. Keir Starmer abandoned that possibility the second he adopted Michael Gove’s ‘muscular Unionism’ lock, stock and barrel.
SLAB are appealing now to the majority of the 55% who voted No then for the first time since the referendum
The SNP are appealing not just to the 52% who support independence, but also to the 38% who still support devolution.
Labour have set themselves a low ceiling by only appealing to the 38% who support devolution.
Elementary arithmetic errors will be the death of the Union.
Scottish Labour now up to 31%
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1577725231333920769?s=20&t=cOcT4j2I4kbPR5_kFa3ARA0 -
Appeasement whoppers gonna whopperLeon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."0 -
His analysis is famously impartial. He said this when the invasion started:Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."
@ClintEhrlich
Many people are predicting that a Russian invasion of Ukraine will look like the failed Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
They're wrong. The world will be shocked by the swiftness of Russian victory.
We're about to witness a Sputnik moment.
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/14966697032462827559 -
You know, I'm shocked to hear that truth-bomb from Clint Ehrlich, former Visiting Researcher at, er, the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."8 -
It feels like the Senate has been deadlocked, or +-2 either way, for a long time, a natural order of things, but I can see that is not the case. A bit like the overwhelming age divide in our voting, which is more recent than many think.0
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In related news, the Pope releases a statement extolling the virtues of the Catholic faith.El_Capitano said:
You know, I'm shocked to hear that truth-bomb from Clint Ehrlich, former Visiting Researcher at, er, the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."4 -
Hopefully the Dems hold onto the house as well. Completely destroy Trumpism and force the GOP back into the centre.6
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Oops. Not one of your finest @Leon.Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."0 -
Clint Ehrlich?Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
Of wait. You are serious?
Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.2 -
Note that the Betfair market has a definition of victory in both the Senate and House that does not allow those winners who caucus with the Democrats to be counted as members of the party when it comes to betting outcomes. Be careful when you bet
Are either of the Indies who caucaus with them up this time?0 -
Probably nothing.
Or there's a coup underway in Moscow:
https://twitter.com/AmRaadPSF/status/15787905662629355531 -
Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by someAlistair said:
Clint Ehrlich?Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
Of wait. You are serious?
Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
BUT HE IS RIGHT
See also:
ian bremmer
@ianbremmer
·
3h
nato should support ukraine to retake all of their occupied territory from feb 24 invasion.
crimea should be a matter for negotiation (as zelensky was willing to before the invasion), not military conflict.
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1578737859808227329?s=20
This is surely the case. By all means let Ukraine sweep the Russians out of the invaded zones - Donbass, Luhansk - if they can
But Crimea is very different, as Musk recognised, too0 -
Or OAPs being wealthier than the young. Lots of things are presented as "it was always thus" yet are nothing of the sort.kle4 said:It feels like the Senate has been deadlocked, or +-2 either way, for a long time, a natural order of things, but I can see that is not the case. A bit like the overwhelming age divide in our voting, which is more recent than many think.
1 -
Leaving aside anything else, there's plenty of time - things have moved pretty fast this last month compared to the months prior (and in a positive direction for Ukraine), but they still seem a long long way from being able to contemplate an attempt to retake Crimea.Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."0 -
Some Catholics probably would be surprised by that. Apparently some really do not like him one bit.Malmesbury said:
In related news, the Pope releases a statement extolling the virtues of the Catholic faith.El_Capitano said:
You know, I'm shocked to hear that truth-bomb from Clint Ehrlich, former Visiting Researcher at, er, the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."0 -
Lab 514 seatsmurali_s said:4th Like the Tories in GE24
SNP 52
LD 33
Con 26
PC 5
Grn 1
NI 18
Speaker 1
One can but dream 😄
SNP His Majesty’s Official Opposition 🏴0 -
More Catholic than the Pope is an old, old comment. With reason.kle4 said:
Some Catholics probably would be surprised by that. Apparently some really do not like him one bit.Malmesbury said:
In related news, the Pope releases a statement extolling the virtues of the Catholic faith.El_Capitano said:
You know, I'm shocked to hear that truth-bomb from Clint Ehrlich, former Visiting Researcher at, er, the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."1 -
I think it's probably disinfo and psy ops. All these coup rumours are coming from Ukrainian accountsMarqueeMark said:Probably nothing.
Or there's a coup underway in Moscow:
https://twitter.com/AmRaadPSF/status/15787905662629355530 -
Even if that ends up happening, it hardly hurts the Ukrainians to not say so. For morale and negotiating position, even if the practicalities limit their sincere wishes to reclaim their territory (or western support is diminished, making it unviable) there's no diplomatic benefit to dropping their legitimate claims now, or suggesting there is no intent to retake it.Leon said:
Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by someAlistair said:
Clint Ehrlich?Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
Of wait. You are serious?
Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
BUT HE IS RIGHT
See also:
ian bremmer
@ianbremmer
·
3h
nato should support ukraine to retake all of their occupied territory from feb 24 invasion.
crimea should be a matter for negotiation (as zelensky was willing to before the invasion), not military conflict.
This is surely the case. By all means let Ukraine sweep the Russians out of the invaded zones - Donbass, Luhansk - if they can
But Crimea is very different, as Musk recognised, too1 -
What a spanner.williamglenn said:
His analysis is famously impartial. He said this when the invasion started:Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."
@ClintEhrlich
Many people are predicting that a Russian invasion of Ukraine will look like the failed Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
They're wrong. The world will be shocked by the swiftness of Russian victory.
We're about to witness a Sputnik moment.
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/14966697032462827551 -
So instead of the opposition being led by a bunch of single issue fanatics and far right xenophobes who've been in power for far too long because of Labour's weakness, it would be, er...StuartDickson said:
Lab 514 seatsmurali_s said:4th Like the Tories in GE24
SNP 52
LD 33
Con 26
PC 5
Grn 1
NI 18
Speaker 1
One can but dream 😄
SNP His Majesty’s Official Opposition 🏴1 -
...Bears' toilet discovered in the woods.Malmesbury said:
In related news, the Pope releases a statement extolling the virtues of the Catholic faith.El_Capitano said:
You know, I'm shocked to hear that truth-bomb from Clint Ehrlich, former Visiting Researcher at, er, the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."0 -
The Ukrainians will absolutely try to retake Crimea. The blood is up, they want revenge, and they want Russia to HURT, and seizing Crimea will do that. And who can blame them. I am pretty sure I would feel the same if I was Ukrainian. Fuck the Russianskle4 said:
Even if that ends up happening, it hardly hurts the Ukrainians to not say so. For morale and negotiating position, even if the practicalities limit their sincere wishes to reclaim their territory (or western support is diminished, making it unviable) there's no diplomatic benefit to dropping their legitimate claims now, or suggesting there is no intent to retake it.Leon said:
Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by someAlistair said:
Clint Ehrlich?Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
Of wait. You are serious?
Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
BUT HE IS RIGHT
See also:
ian bremmer
@ianbremmer
·
3h
nato should support ukraine to retake all of their occupied territory from feb 24 invasion.
crimea should be a matter for negotiation (as zelensky was willing to before the invasion), not military conflict.
This is surely the case. By all means let Ukraine sweep the Russians out of the invaded zones - Donbass, Luhansk - if they can
But Crimea is very different, as Musk recognised, too
But it is then a valid question: should we support them as whole heartedly as we supported them in resisting the initial invasion? Arm them with NATO weapons to take territory that, before the war, was de facto part of Russia?
I am not sure. Because that really does look quite nuclear war-ish0 -
Looks like nothing. People in Moscow don't seem to have noticed anything.MarqueeMark said:Probably nothing.
Or there's a coup underway in Moscow:
https://twitter.com/AmRaadPSF/status/1578790566262935553
A bit like that phantom coup against Xi a couple of weeks ago.0 -
Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.
The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.
Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.
What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.8 -
Yebbut... still the better option.ydoethur said:
So instead of the opposition being led by a bunch of single issue fanatics and far right xenophobes who've been in power for far too long because of Labour's weakness, it would be, er...StuartDickson said:
Lab 514 seatsmurali_s said:4th Like the Tories in GE24
SNP 52
LD 33
Con 26
PC 5
Grn 1
NI 18
Speaker 1
One can but dream 😄
SNP His Majesty’s Official Opposition 🏴0 -
Still feels relatively warm outside here in SW London, just got a run in.0
-
after his daily dump amid the trees?Malmesbury said:
In related news, the Pope releases a statement extolling the virtues of the Catholic faith.El_Capitano said:
You know, I'm shocked to hear that truth-bomb from Clint Ehrlich, former Visiting Researcher at, er, the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."0 -
There are so many economic headwinds for the Dems that keeping control of the Senate would feel like a huge victory for them .
The House is going to be incredibly hard for them to keep . This would need the abortion issue to really help Dem turnout and even then that might not be enough .
For the good of US democracy Trumpism needs to be dealt a huge blow in November , those GOP candidates endorsed by him need to lose.0 -
"There’s a very weird group of people who are deathly afraid of covid but nonchalant about nuclear war."moonshine said:Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.
The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.
Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.
What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.
https://twitter.com/johndurant/status/1578609257934598144?s=200 -
A couple people have noticed that the Chechens and Wagner Group are not fighting in the main sector now. Bit like they are reserving their forces for the next round of Game Of (Moscow) Thronesydoethur said:
Looks like nothing. People in Moscow don't seem to have noticed anything.MarqueeMark said:Probably nothing.
Or there's a coup underway in Moscow:
https://twitter.com/AmRaadPSF/status/1578790566262935553
A bit like that phantom coup against Xi a couple of weeks ago.0 -
Carry on speaking about yourself in the third person like this, and we’ll have to start worrying about you.Leon said:
Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by someAlistair said:
Clint Ehrlich?Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
Of wait. You are serious?
Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
BUT HE IS RIGHT1 -
Been a beautiful day here in Staffs. Certainly compared to yesterday when it rained so hard my gutters literally overflowed.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Still feels relatively warm outside here in SW London, just got a run in.
0 -
Don't tell Leon: "precise explosive placement".
NOT a truck bomb.
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/15787229139515801680 -
I find it hard to imagine that anybody would want that. What do you want though @StuartDickson ? You're resident Swedish arent't you? Do you have some plan to return to Scotland as the King from over the water?StuartDickson said:
Lab 514 seatsmurali_s said:4th Like the Tories in GE24
SNP 52
LD 33
Con 26
PC 5
Grn 1
NI 18
Speaker 1
One can but dream 😄
SNP His Majesty’s Official Opposition 🏴
Tongue in cheek the above, but really what is it that you'd like?1 -
Elon Musk is giving blowjobs-as-sales=pitches to both Putin and Xi. For current fun AND future (he hopes) profits.0
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Beautiful day in Dorset - an enjoyable, if tiring, afternoon splitting logs - but it's getting quite cool now.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Still feels relatively warm outside here in SW London, just got a run in.
0 -
This isn't about saving face for Putin, it is about saving face for all the shitty right wong think tankers who've spent thr last decade idolising Putin amd framing a Bold Masculin Russia vs Weak Woke West narrative.Leon said:
Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by someAlistair said:
Clint Ehrlich?Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
Of wait. You are serious?
Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
BUT HE IS RIGHT
See also:
ian bremmer
@ianbremmer
·
3h
nato should support ukraine to retake all of their occupied territory from feb 24 invasion.
crimea should be a matter for negotiation (as zelensky was willing to before the invasion), not military conflict.
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1578737859808227329?s=20
This is surely the case. By all means let Ukraine sweep the Russians out of the invaded zones - Donbass, Luhansk - if they can
But Crimea is very different, as Musk recognised, too
If Putin gets nothing then they get nothing. The West's response is shattering their world view and tearing down their hero. They desperately need an off ramp and they think bed wetting about nuclear war is the way to do it.7 -
Makes sense. After all, these are people who are happy with wearing masks 24/7, living for months on end in a tiny confined space, and talking to no-one outside your "bubble".Leon said:
"There’s a very weird group of people who are deathly afraid of covid but nonchalant about nuclear war."moonshine said:Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.
The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.
Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.
What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.
https://twitter.com/johndurant/status/1578609257934598144?s=20
Which is pretty much what life in a post apocalyptic fallout shelter would look like.1 -
They want to, but war 'fatigue' from the West is something that eill need an eye kept on, and it's not hard to see some losing their stomach when 'attacking' entrenched Russian positions.Leon said:
The Ukrainians will absolutely try to retake Crimea. The blood is up, they want revenge, and they want Russia to HURT, and seizing Crimea will do that. And who can blame them. I am pretty sure I would feel the same if I was Ukrainian. Fuck the Russianskle4 said:
Even if that ends up happening, it hardly hurts the Ukrainians to not say so. For morale and negotiating position, even if the practicalities limit their sincere wishes to reclaim their territory (or western support is diminished, making it unviable) there's no diplomatic benefit to dropping their legitimate claims now, or suggesting there is no intent to retake it.Leon said:
Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by someAlistair said:
Clint Ehrlich?Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
Of wait. You are serious?
Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
BUT HE IS RIGHT
See also:
ian bremmer
@ianbremmer
·
3h
nato should support ukraine to retake all of their occupied territory from feb 24 invasion.
crimea should be a matter for negotiation (as zelensky was willing to before the invasion), not military conflict.
This is surely the case. By all means let Ukraine sweep the Russians out of the invaded zones - Donbass, Luhansk - if they can
But Crimea is very different, as Musk recognised, too
But it is then a valid question: should we support them as whole heartedly as we supported them in resisting the initial invasion? Arm them with NATO weapons to take territory that, before the war, was de facto part of Russia?
I am not sure. Because that really does look quite nuclear war-ish
You for instance suggest retaking the Donbas should still be supported, but I tend to agree with the below position, that a lot of people will try to act like the war began this year, not 8 years ago - the world ignored it at the time, and plenty may well be happy to return to that position, and not back more.
I don't think people on here are prepared for the overwhelming pressure that is going to be put on Ukraine by powerful voices in the west to stop its offensives at the 24th February lines, the same voices that also said Ukraine would lose and that we should not be arming them.
https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1578368451889942528?cxt=HHwWgMCqudLvvucrAAAA
The key, as ever, will be the americans - I think it is pretty clear Trump would reduce american support if he wins the next election, given what his son says.0 -
Flags fluttering alongside you and the bodyguards minding your way?CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Still feels relatively warm outside here in SW London, just got a run in.
Well done on the promotion, and I hope you'll forgive me.
0 -
Speaking of idolising Putin, who was extolling his anti-woke speech on here last year? The name escapes me.Alistair said:
This isn't about saving face for Putin, it is about saving face for all the shitty right wong think tankers who've spent thr last decade idolising Putin amd framing a Bold Masculin Russia vs Weak Woke West narrative.Leon said:
Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by someAlistair said:
Clint Ehrlich?Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
Of wait. You are serious?
Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
BUT HE IS RIGHT
See also:
ian bremmer
@ianbremmer
·
3h
nato should support ukraine to retake all of their occupied territory from feb 24 invasion.
crimea should be a matter for negotiation (as zelensky was willing to before the invasion), not military conflict.
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1578737859808227329?s=20
This is surely the case. By all means let Ukraine sweep the Russians out of the invaded zones - Donbass, Luhansk - if they can
But Crimea is very different, as Musk recognised, too
If Putin gets nothing then they get nothing. The West's response is shattering their world view and tearing down their hero. They desperately need an off ramp and they think bed wetting about nuclear war is the way to do it.1 -
He's either a wimp or a Russian trollLeon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."0 -
Some perspective.
Russia = 17,098,246 sq km
Crimea = 27,000 sq km
Do you think most Russians would demand nuclear war over Crimea?0 -
That's just culture war stuff.Leon said:
"There’s a very weird group of people who are deathly afraid of covid but nonchalant about nuclear war."moonshine said:Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.
The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.
Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.
What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.
https://twitter.com/johndurant/status/1578609257934598144?s=201 -
I'm certainly a bit concerned about nuclear covid.Leon said:
"There’s a very weird group of people who are deathly afraid of covid but nonchalant about nuclear war."moonshine said:Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.
The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.
Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.
What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.
https://twitter.com/johndurant/status/1578609257934598144?s=200 -
Yes.Alistair said:
This isn't about saving face for Putin, it is about saving face for all the shitty right wong think tankers who've spent thr last decade idolising Putin amd framing a Bold Masculin Russia vs Weak Woke West narrative.Leon said:
Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by someAlistair said:
Clint Ehrlich?Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
Of wait. You are serious?
Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
BUT HE IS RIGHT
See also:
ian bremmer
@ianbremmer
·
3h
nato should support ukraine to retake all of their occupied territory from feb 24 invasion.
crimea should be a matter for negotiation (as zelensky was willing to before the invasion), not military conflict.
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1578737859808227329?s=20
This is surely the case. By all means let Ukraine sweep the Russians out of the invaded zones - Donbass, Luhansk - if they can
But Crimea is very different, as Musk recognised, too
If Putin gets nothing then they get nothing. The West's response is shattering their world view and tearing down their hero. They desperately need an off ramp and they think bed wetting about nuclear war is the way to do it.
Remember the bizarre propaganda about the protestors in Ukraine? When some of them were shot, it was all a provocation by NATO s****ite snipers. Apparently.
If the Woke Trans Gay NATO wins in Ukraine….
“And he was much too good a journalist to spoil his contrast by remarking that the half-dozen comparatively slender young men in blue pajamas who were standing about their victorious land ironclad, drinking coffee and eating biscuits, had also in their eyes and carriage something not altogether degraded below the level of a man.”
0 -
The idea of the opposition is that they should be able to form a government.Benpointer said:
Yebbut... still the better option.ydoethur said:
So instead of the opposition being led by a bunch of single issue fanatics and far right xenophobes who've been in power for far too long because of Labour's weakness, it would be, er...StuartDickson said:
Lab 514 seatsmurali_s said:4th Like the Tories in GE24
SNP 52
LD 33
Con 26
PC 5
Grn 1
NI 18
Speaker 1
One can but dream 😄
SNP His Majesty’s Official Opposition 🏴
The Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and possibly even the Greens could do that in theory, as they stand a sufficient number of candidates to.
The SNP could not. It is actually mathematically impossible.
For them to form the opposition would be a disaster. It would upend the whole notion of it.
Even leaving aside their unpleasant aspects, which all parties have.1 -
0
-
Neutrality was a load of horseshit from the start anyway. It's not neutrality if its mandated by one side under threat of attack, it's not a choice at that point.moonshine said:Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.
The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.
Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.
What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.
Plus the other reasons given for the invasion, such as Ukraine not being real country, and annexing those areas they control (partly), show it was never about Ukraine being neutral.
The demand for neutrality (I recall Kissinger stating it too - yes, he's still alive it turns out) is the apperance of reasonableness covering an acceptance of imperial dominion for some states. If that is to be argued it should be honestly, not as some pretence it is what the country involved wants.2 -
This military dude thinks it was a missileMarqueeMark said:Don't tell Leon: "precise explosive placement".
NOT a truck bomb.
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1578722913951580168
"Kerch Bridge Missile Pictures:
All the evidence you need that the Kerch Bridge was hit by a missile and not a truck bomb as Russian media claims.
Pay attention to where you see the light from the explosion, it’s not coming from the truck.
First, .1 seconds before"
https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1578739132838207488?s=20&t=LBmX9csAkFlUd-v3OuNv9g
An important question is: which is less embarrassing or menacing for Russia? what narrative do they want to be told?
If it was a clever SBS style waterborne attack that is highly impressive. And suggests that Ukraine might have been responsible the the Nordstream explosion. They certainly have the motivation0 -
Probably not an icon.williamglenn said:Boris Johnson has become an icon in Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfkiyoY8WRk0 -
They're welcome to him.williamglenn said:Boris Johnson has become an icon in Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfkiyoY8WRk
The sooner the better.1 -
If neither the Conservatives nor the Lib Dems could muster more MPs than the SNP, then the whole system would be upended anyway regardless of whether the SNP were "official opposition" or not. But it's not going to happen.ydoethur said:
The idea of the opposition is that they should be able to form a government.Benpointer said:
Yebbut... still the better option.ydoethur said:
So instead of the opposition being led by a bunch of single issue fanatics and far right xenophobes who've been in power for far too long because of Labour's weakness, it would be, er...StuartDickson said:
Lab 514 seatsmurali_s said:4th Like the Tories in GE24
SNP 52
LD 33
Con 26
PC 5
Grn 1
NI 18
Speaker 1
One can but dream 😄
SNP His Majesty’s Official Opposition 🏴
The Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and possibly even the Greens could do that in theory, as they stand a sufficient number of candidates to.
The SNP could not. It is actually mathematically impossible.
For them to form the opposition would be a disaster. It would upend the whole notion of it.
Even leaving aside their unpleasant aspects, which all parties have.1 -
That's a whole bunch of supposition based on one angle. The clean break ends of the road you can see are the expansion joints, so of course they break clean. You don't see the ragged ends because they are in the see.MarqueeMark said:Don't tell Leon: "precise explosive placement".
NOT a truck bomb.
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/15787229139515801680 -
Droll. VGkyf_100 said:
Makes sense. After all, these are people who are happy with wearing masks 24/7, living for months on end in a tiny confined space, and talking to no-one outside your "bubble".Leon said:
"There’s a very weird group of people who are deathly afraid of covid but nonchalant about nuclear war."moonshine said:Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.
The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.
Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.
What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.
https://twitter.com/johndurant/status/1578609257934598144?s=20
Which is pretty much what life in a post apocalyptic fallout shelter would look like.0 -
Isnt Liz Truss in favour of 2 for 1 deals.......ydoethur said:
They're welcome to him.williamglenn said:Boris Johnson has become an icon in Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfkiyoY8WRk
The sooner the better.0 -
As a proportion of the total Russian land area Crimea is about the same as the Isle of Wight is to the UK.0
-
I’m minded to agree Crimea is a bit different from the other regions here, as those maps of the old 1991 referendum show. When Ukraine liberates the other annexed territories they will be met with cheering and hugs, but the Crimean population may be a different matter.
However, we are months away from them getting anywhere near marching on the peninsula. There’s a vast tract of land in the South and East to advance on and secure first.
I see the bridge bombing as a strike against Russias war logistics and Putin’s ego, not the starting pistol of an offensive on Crimea2 -
Would that be the Musk who wants Taiwan to have the same status as HK?Leon said:
Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by someAlistair said:
Clint Ehrlich?Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
Of wait. You are serious?
Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
BUT HE IS RIGHT
See also:
ian bremmer
@ianbremmer
·
3h
nato should support ukraine to retake all of their occupied territory from feb 24 invasion.
crimea should be a matter for negotiation (as zelensky was willing to before the invasion), not military conflict.
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1578737859808227329?s=20
This is surely the case. By all means let Ukraine sweep the Russians out of the invaded zones - Donbass, Luhansk - if they can
But Crimea is very different, as Musk recognised, too
That guy?0 -
Immensely powerful people of a certain mind set don't set much store by the views of ordinary people, the freedoms of a liberal society, or other people like them getting their nemesis (unless their direct enemies).moonshine said:Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.
The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.
Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.
What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.
Has anyone done analysis of where Trump stands on Ukraine in particular and Taiwan in general, on the basis of what he has said and done?
0 -
Not another one...
@JPN_PMO - Japan government organization
[Emergency alert]
North Korea has launched a suspected ballistic missile. More updates to follow.
https://twitter.com/JPN_PMO/status/15787921967568936960 -
There's an entertaining "lunch with the FT" featuring Musk todaydixiedean said:
Would that be the Musk who wants Taiwan to have the same status as HK?Leon said:
Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by someAlistair said:
Clint Ehrlich?Leon said:A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE
"THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
Of wait. You are serious?
Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
BUT HE IS RIGHT
See also:
ian bremmer
@ianbremmer
·
3h
nato should support ukraine to retake all of their occupied territory from feb 24 invasion.
crimea should be a matter for negotiation (as zelensky was willing to before the invasion), not military conflict.
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1578737859808227329?s=20
This is surely the case. By all means let Ukraine sweep the Russians out of the invaded zones - Donbass, Luhansk - if they can
But Crimea is very different, as Musk recognised, too
That guy?
https://www.ft.com/content/5ef14997-982e-4f03-8548-b5d67202623a
Tho in fact they have dinner, at his favourite Tex Mex joint. I want to go. It sounds amazing
I am in favour of the fact Musk drinks margaritas. He is amusing0 -
The benefit of taking Crimea for Ukraine is that they are in an amazing bargaining position.TimS said:I’m minded to think Crimea is a big different from the other regions here, as those maps of the old 1991 referendum show. When Ukraine liberates the other annexed territories they will be met with cheering and hugs, but the Crimean population may be a different matter.
However, we are months away from them getting anywhere near marching on the peninsula. There’s a vast tract of land in the South and East to advance on and secure first.
I see the bridge bombing as a strike against Russias war logistics and Putin’s ego, not the starting pistol of an offensive on Crimea
They can keep it, they can demonstrate their credentials by allowing a referendum of the population and show they really are the good guys or they can make terms with Russia where (Elon will love this) they hand it to Russia in return for huge reparations and a guarantee that Crimea remains neutral/demilitarised.
0 -
Torn between minimising the incident and escalation, the Russians seem to have opted for minimisation. The rail bridge is open already apparently (lol)
https://twitter.com/markurban01/status/1578796297859268608?s=21&t=G9-B8gIgyPaz1q4-hjyMmQ0 -
Trump attempted to extort the President of Ukraine over badly needed anti tank weapons.algarkirk said:
Immensely powerful people of a certain mind set don't set much store by the views of ordinary people, the freedoms of a liberal society, or other people like them getting their nemesis (unless their direct enemies).moonshine said:Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.
The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.
Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.
What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.
Has anyone done analysis of where Trump stands on Ukraine in particular and Taiwan in general, on the basis of what he has said and done?2 -
Oh Dear poor Truss . The latest Opinium poll is a horror show for her.0
-
and yet they get a bridge…FrankBooth said:As a proportion of the total Russian land area Crimea is about the same as the Isle of Wight is to the UK.
1 -
Thank you - Happy Horse forgives allOmnium said:
Flags fluttering alongside you and the bodyguards minding your way?CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Still feels relatively warm outside here in SW London, just got a run in.
Well done on the promotion, and I hope you'll forgive me.0 -
Do you imagine a bridge to the IoW would ever clear planning?IanB2 said:
and yet they get a bridge…FrankBooth said:As a proportion of the total Russian land area Crimea is about the same as the Isle of Wight is to the UK.
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Coincidence? Kismet? Conspiracy?
Could the Soviets Cut Off Crimea? - WW2 - October 8, 1943
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=et3FWnoLIy0
Or just chickens coming home to roost?0 -
Leon is becoming some kind of disinformation service.1
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I rather liked the suggestions a day or so ago that you should now style yourself as CorrectHorseRegiment.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:
Thank you - Happy Horse forgives allOmnium said:
Flags fluttering alongside you and the bodyguards minding your way?CorrectHorseBattery3 said:Still feels relatively warm outside here in SW London, just got a run in.
Well done on the promotion, and I hope you'll forgive me.
I guess though you'll forgive us if we style you CHB.0 -
If Kherson falls in the coming days (quite possible) then the Ukrainians might go for Crimea FIRST, as it is so strategic, and would cause maximum humiliation for Putin: an actual proper defeat, losing territory he was so proud of winning without a shot in 2014. Also, with the bridge largely out of action the Ukes can totally isolate Crimea by cutting Russia's landroute along the Azovite coastTimS said:I’m minded to agree Crimea is a bit different from the other regions here, as those maps of the old 1991 referendum show. When Ukraine liberates the other annexed territories they will be met with cheering and hugs, but the Crimean population may be a different matter.
However, we are months away from them getting anywhere near marching on the peninsula. There’s a vast tract of land in the South and East to advance on and secure first.
I see the bridge bombing as a strike against Russias war logistics and Putin’s ego, not the starting pistol of an offensive on Crimea
Then Crimea hangs, exposed, like a ripe mango. Pluck it0 -
Imagine if Boris’s bridge to Northern Ireland had been destroyed by some kind of Von der Leyen-Varadkar axis special ops.6
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Retaining control of the Senate for the Democrats while losing the House would certainly be a boost to Biden but not unprecedented.
Trump in 2018 and Obama in 2010 in his first midterm saw their party lose the House but hold the Senate. Reagan in 1982 also saw the GOP hold the Senate but fail to win the House.
Indeed Bill Clinton is the only US President in the last 50 years to have had such a disastrous first midterms that his party lost control of both the House and Senate (Bush 41 and Ford's parties controlled neither chamber when they came to office anyway). Ironically though Clinton was re elected in 19960 -
It's not that strategic if the bridge is shot. Most of the Kherson oblast is the other side of the Dnipro. Quite a long to get to Crimea.Leon said:
If Kherson falls in the coming days (quite possible) then the Ukrainians might go for Crimea FIRST, as it is so strategic, and would cause maximum humiliation for Putin: an actual proper defeat, losing territory he was so proud of winning without a shot in 2014. Also, with the bridge largely out of action the Ukes can totally isolate Crimea by cutting Russia's landroute along the Azovite coastTimS said:I’m minded to agree Crimea is a bit different from the other regions here, as those maps of the old 1991 referendum show. When Ukraine liberates the other annexed territories they will be met with cheering and hugs, but the Crimean population may be a different matter.
However, we are months away from them getting anywhere near marching on the peninsula. There’s a vast tract of land in the South and East to advance on and secure first.
I see the bridge bombing as a strike against Russias war logistics and Putin’s ego, not the starting pistol of an offensive on Crimea
Then Crimea hangs, exposed, like a ripe mango. Pluck it0 -
Which see? Kiev and all Rus?Alistair said:
That's a whole bunch of supposition based on one angle. The clean break ends of the road you can see are the expansion joints, so of course they break clean. You don't see the ragged ends because they are in the see.MarqueeMark said:Don't tell Leon: "precise explosive placement".
NOT a truck bomb.
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/15787229139515801680 -
At every step so far they’ve taken the right course and I think as propaganda coups go the greatest goal must be the recapture of (the burned remains of) Mariupol, followed by the city of Donetsk. But who knows.Leon said:
If Kherson falls in the coming days (quite possible) then the Ukrainians might go for Crimea FIRST, as it is so strategic, and would cause maximum humiliation for Putin: an actual proper defeat, losing territory he was so proud of winning without a shot in 2014. Also, with the bridge largely out of action the Ukes can totally isolate Crimea by cutting Russia's landroute along the Azovite coastTimS said:I’m minded to agree Crimea is a bit different from the other regions here, as those maps of the old 1991 referendum show. When Ukraine liberates the other annexed territories they will be met with cheering and hugs, but the Crimean population may be a different matter.
However, we are months away from them getting anywhere near marching on the peninsula. There’s a vast tract of land in the South and East to advance on and secure first.
I see the bridge bombing as a strike against Russias war logistics and Putin’s ego, not the starting pistol of an offensive on Crimea
Then Crimea hangs, exposed, like a ripe mango. Pluck it0 -
Leon is becoming some kind of disinformation service.Gardenwalker said:Leon is becoming some kind of disinformation service.
Fixed that for you. No charge.3 -
And completely powerless given the huge Labour majority. It would actually be better for the SNP to win fewer seats but hold the balance of power in a hung parliament in terms of getting any influenceStuartDickson said:
Lab 514 seatsmurali_s said:4th Like the Tories in GE24
SNP 52
LD 33
Con 26
PC 5
Grn 1
NI 18
Speaker 1
One can but dream 😄
SNP His Majesty’s Official Opposition 🏴0 -
Oh mate.
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The idea of a bridge (to Ireland generally) isn't a bad thing. Not practical yet.Gardenwalker said:Imagine if Boris’s bridge to Northern Ireland had been destroyed by some kind of Von der Leyen-Varadkar axis special ops.
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Even adding the Green percentage (Alba don't yet stand at Westminster) the Nationalist parties combined are only on 48% to 50% for the combined Unionist parties.StuartDickson said:
Funny how you always forget the Green and Alba votes, plus the 38% of Scottish Labour voters who are pro-independence, plus a few pp of the SLD and SCon votes.HYUFD said:
Nope. The latest Yougov Scottish Westminster poll has the SNP on 45%, ie only those who voted Yes in 2014.StuartDickson said:
You’re stuck in the past.HYUFD said:
The SNP are still on roughly the 45% Yes got in 2014.StuartDickson said:
I love Unionists who lack ambition 😄HYUFD said:
Nationalists will stick with Nationalist parties ie SNP and Green.StuartDickson said:
Fair point. But it is a dreadful strategy.HYUFD said:
Given the shift of SCon voters to SLAB over recent weeks the percentage of SLAB voters pro independence will now be much less than 38%StuartDickson said:
Wise advice.Taz said:
Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:
You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.StuartDickson said:
Yes there is.CorrectHorseBattery3 said:
Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.StuartDickson said:
That was before Iraq and Better Together.Scott_xP said:SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”
Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016
Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.
The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
Instead Anas has conducted a purge of pro-independence candidates and members. Odd behaviour when 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence.
Starmer is fishing in a pool of soft SCons, which is approx 8pp, at best. Instead, he should be trying to win back the voters his party lost to the SNP and Greens post-Better Together, approx 25pp.
But hey, what do I know?
Starmer and Sarwar have instead now achieved the more realistic goal of making Scottish Labour the main Unionist party in Scotland again and the main alternative to the SNP
Your mistake is to think that everyone in Scotland is either a Unionist or a Nationalist. They’re really, really not. The normal people in the middle far outweigh the 100% convinced ends of the spectrum. The SNP and Greens at least make an honest effort to appeal to Middle Scotland. Keir Starmer abandoned that possibility the second he adopted Michael Gove’s ‘muscular Unionism’ lock, stock and barrel.
SLAB are appealing now to the majority of the 55% who voted No then for the first time since the referendum
The SNP are appealing not just to the 52% who support independence, but also to the 38% who still support devolution.
Labour have set themselves a low ceiling by only appealing to the 38% who support devolution.
Elementary arithmetic errors will be the death of the Union.
Scottish Labour now up to 31%
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1577725231333920769?s=20&t=cOcT4j2I4kbPR5_kFa3ARA
As mentioned earlier less than 38% of SLab voters now back independence given the SCon movement to SLab and some SNP voters are still Unionists too0 -
It has airfields and naval bases. SevastopolFrankBooth said:
It's not that strategic if the bridge is shot. Most of the Kherson oblast is the other side of the Dnipro. Quite a long to get to Crimea.Leon said:
If Kherson falls in the coming days (quite possible) then the Ukrainians might go for Crimea FIRST, as it is so strategic, and would cause maximum humiliation for Putin: an actual proper defeat, losing territory he was so proud of winning without a shot in 2014. Also, with the bridge largely out of action the Ukes can totally isolate Crimea by cutting Russia's landroute along the Azovite coastTimS said:I’m minded to agree Crimea is a bit different from the other regions here, as those maps of the old 1991 referendum show. When Ukraine liberates the other annexed territories they will be met with cheering and hugs, but the Crimean population may be a different matter.
However, we are months away from them getting anywhere near marching on the peninsula. There’s a vast tract of land in the South and East to advance on and secure first.
I see the bridge bombing as a strike against Russias war logistics and Putin’s ego, not the starting pistol of an offensive on Crimea
Then Crimea hangs, exposed, like a ripe mango. Pluck it
It would also be an enormous psychological blow against Putin: losing Crimea. And the Ukes want to hurt Putin0 -
The problem of Crimea from Kherson for the Ukrainians is the same as the problem of Kherson from Crimea for the Russians, namely supply over the Dnieper with so many of the bridges out. I don't know if that logistical issue is more solvable from the Ukrainian side, but I suspect as possible is an advance along the Zaporizhzhia - Melitopol axis to secure some control East of the Dnieper before any advance from a liberated Kherson.Leon said:
If Kherson falls in the coming days (quite possible) then the Ukrainians might go for Crimea FIRST, as it is so strategic, and would cause maximum humiliation for Putin: an actual proper defeat, losing territory he was so proud of winning without a shot in 2014. Also, with the bridge largely out of action the Ukes can totally isolate Crimea by cutting Russia's landroute along the Azovite coastTimS said:I’m minded to agree Crimea is a bit different from the other regions here, as those maps of the old 1991 referendum show. When Ukraine liberates the other annexed territories they will be met with cheering and hugs, but the Crimean population may be a different matter.
However, we are months away from them getting anywhere near marching on the peninsula. There’s a vast tract of land in the South and East to advance on and secure first.
I see the bridge bombing as a strike against Russias war logistics and Putin’s ego, not the starting pistol of an offensive on Crimea
Then Crimea hangs, exposed, like a ripe mango. Pluck it
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Conor Burns, who has just been sacked for misbehaviour allegations, is to be knighted in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours.0
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It’s a shit idea precisely because it’s not practical.Omnium said:
The idea of a bridge (to Ireland generally) isn't a bad thing. Not practical yet.Gardenwalker said:Imagine if Boris’s bridge to Northern Ireland had been destroyed by some kind of Von der Leyen-Varadkar axis special ops.
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I now not to be.Gardenwalker said:Conor Burns, who has just been sacked for misbehaviour allegations, is to be knighted in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours.
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Bridge must have been destroyed by some artificially intelligent aliens?Gardenwalker said:Leon is becoming some kind of disinformation service.
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The Tories’ capacity for self harm is mind blowing right now.Gardenwalker said:Conor Burns, who has just been sacked for misbehaviour allegations, is to be knighted in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours.
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Liz has to go. Sticking with her is completely pointless. It is completely without a point. No alternative action could possibly result in a worse outcome.1
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And now both Bournemouth MPs sit as ex-Tory independentsGardenwalker said:Conor Burns, who has just been sacked for misbehaviour allegations, is to be knighted in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours.
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There’s something fucked up in the water down there.IanB2 said:
And now both Bournemouth MPs sit as ex-Tory independentsGardenwalker said:Conor Burns, who has just been sacked for misbehaviour allegations, is to be knighted in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours.
Chope, Swayne…0
