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Retaining Senate control would be a huge boost for Biden – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 20 in General
imageRetaining Senate control would be a huge boost for Biden – politicalbetting.com

We are just over a month away from the November 8th US mid-term elections when generally, as the table above indicates, the party of the incumbent president does not do well.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472
    First, much like Politicians once washed up on the shore of the shrewd Smithson.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Second, like Elisabeth wasn’t in Scotland.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nor was she Elisabeth.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    HARRISONBURG, Va. – Gerald Leonard Drake, 63, from Winchester, was indicted Thursday for planting a pipe bomb at a Civil War reenactment event in 2017.

    Drake purported to be a member of Antifa, was a member of the org he threatened to bomb.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BradKutner/status/1578151792067563521
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,965
    4th Like the Tories in GE24
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,867
    edited October 8
    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."


  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    edited October 8
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
    Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.
    Wise advice.

    Instead Anas has conducted a purge of pro-independence candidates and members. Odd behaviour when 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence.
    Given the shift of SCon voters to SLAB over recent weeks the percentage of SLAB voters pro independence will now be much less than 38%
    Fair point. But it is a dreadful strategy.

    Starmer is fishing in a pool of soft SCons, which is approx 8pp, at best. Instead, he should be trying to win back the voters his party lost to the SNP and Greens post-Better Together, approx 25pp.

    But hey, what do I know?
    Nationalists will stick with Nationalist parties ie SNP and Green.

    Starmer and Sarwar have instead now achieved the more realistic goal of making Scottish Labour the main Unionist party in Scotland again and the main alternative to the SNP
    I love Unionists who lack ambition 😄

    Your mistake is to think that everyone in Scotland is either a Unionist or a Nationalist. They’re really, really not. The normal people in the middle far outweigh the 100% convinced ends of the spectrum. The SNP and Greens at least make an honest effort to appeal to Middle Scotland. Keir Starmer abandoned that possibility the second he adopted Michael Gove’s ‘muscular Unionism’ lock, stock and barrel.
    The SNP are still on roughly the 45% Yes got in 2014.

    SLAB are appealing now to the majority of the 55% who voted No then for the first time since the referendum
    You’re stuck in the past.

    The SNP are appealing not just to the 52% who support independence, but also to the 38% who still support devolution.

    Labour have set themselves a low ceiling by only appealing to the 38% who support devolution.

    Elementary arithmetic errors will be the death of the Union.
    Nope. The latest Yougov Scottish Westminster poll has the SNP on 45%, ie only those who voted Yes in 2014.

    Scottish Labour now up to 31%
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1577725231333920769?s=20&t=cOcT4j2I4kbPR5_kFa3ARA
    Funny how you always forget the Green and Alba votes, plus the 38% of Scottish Labour voters who are pro-independence, plus a few pp of the SLD and SCon votes.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,591
    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."

    Appeasement whoppers gonna whopper
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,468
    It feels like the Senate has been deadlocked, or +-2 either way, for a long time, a natural order of things, but I can see that is not the case. A bit like the overwhelming age divide in our voting, which is more recent than many think.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203

    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."

    You know, I'm shocked to hear that truth-bomb from Clint Ehrlich, former Visiting Researcher at, er, the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.
    In related news, the Pope releases a statement extolling the virtues of the Catholic faith.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."


    Oops. Not one of your finest @Leon.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    edited October 8
    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."


    Clint Ehrlich?

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

    Of wait. You are serious?

    Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,468
    Note that the Betfair market has a definition of victory in both the Senate and House that does not allow those winners who caucus with the Democrats to be counted as members of the party when it comes to betting outcomes. Be careful when you bet

    Are either of the Indies who caucaus with them up this time?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Probably nothing.

    Or there's a coup underway in Moscow:

    https://twitter.com/AmRaadPSF/status/1578790566262935553
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,867
    edited October 8
    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."


    Clint Ehrlich?

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

    Of wait. You are serious?

    Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
    Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by some

    BUT HE IS RIGHT

    See also:

    ian bremmer
    @ianbremmer
    ·
    3h
    nato should support ukraine to retake all of their occupied territory from feb 24 invasion.

    crimea should be a matter for negotiation (as zelensky was willing to before the invasion), not military conflict.


    https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1578737859808227329?s=20


    This is surely the case. By all means let Ukraine sweep the Russians out of the invaded zones - Donbass, Luhansk - if they can

    But Crimea is very different, as Musk recognised, too
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    kle4 said:

    It feels like the Senate has been deadlocked, or +-2 either way, for a long time, a natural order of things, but I can see that is not the case. A bit like the overwhelming age divide in our voting, which is more recent than many think.

    Or OAPs being wealthier than the young. Lots of things are presented as "it was always thus" yet are nothing of the sort.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,468
    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."


    Leaving aside anything else, there's plenty of time - things have moved pretty fast this last month compared to the months prior (and in a positive direction for Ukraine), but they still seem a long long way from being able to contemplate an attempt to retake Crimea.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,468

    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."

    You know, I'm shocked to hear that truth-bomb from Clint Ehrlich, former Visiting Researcher at, er, the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.
    In related news, the Pope releases a statement extolling the virtues of the Catholic faith.
    Some Catholics probably would be surprised by that. Apparently some really do not like him one bit.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    murali_s said:

    4th Like the Tories in GE24

    Lab 514 seats
    SNP 52
    LD 33
    Con 26
    PC 5
    Grn 1
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    One can but dream 😄

    SNP His Majesty’s Official Opposition 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."

    You know, I'm shocked to hear that truth-bomb from Clint Ehrlich, former Visiting Researcher at, er, the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.
    In related news, the Pope releases a statement extolling the virtues of the Catholic faith.
    Some Catholics probably would be surprised by that. Apparently some really do not like him one bit.
    More Catholic than the Pope is an old, old comment. With reason.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,867

    Probably nothing.

    Or there's a coup underway in Moscow:

    https://twitter.com/AmRaadPSF/status/1578790566262935553

    I think it's probably disinfo and psy ops. All these coup rumours are coming from Ukrainian accounts
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,468
    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."


    Clint Ehrlich?

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

    Of wait. You are serious?

    Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
    Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by some

    BUT HE IS RIGHT

    See also:

    ian bremmer
    @ianbremmer
    ·
    3h
    nato should support ukraine to retake all of their occupied territory from feb 24 invasion.

    crimea should be a matter for negotiation (as zelensky was willing to before the invasion), not military conflict.


    This is surely the case. By all means let Ukraine sweep the Russians out of the invaded zones - Donbass, Luhansk - if they can

    But Crimea is very different, as Musk recognised, too
    Even if that ends up happening, it hardly hurts the Ukrainians to not say so. For morale and negotiating position, even if the practicalities limit their sincere wishes to reclaim their territory (or western support is diminished, making it unviable) there's no diplomatic benefit to dropping their legitimate claims now, or suggesting there is no intent to retake it.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,788

    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."

    His analysis is famously impartial. He said this when the invasion started:

    @ClintEhrlich
    Many people are predicting that a Russian invasion of Ukraine will look like the failed Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

    They're wrong. The world will be shocked by the swiftness of Russian victory.

    We're about to witness a Sputnik moment.


    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1496669703246282755
    What a spanner.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    murali_s said:

    4th Like the Tories in GE24

    Lab 514 seats
    SNP 52
    LD 33
    Con 26
    PC 5
    Grn 1
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    One can but dream 😄

    SNP His Majesty’s Official Opposition 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
    So instead of the opposition being led by a bunch of single issue fanatics and far right xenophobes who've been in power for far too long because of Labour's weakness, it would be, er...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736

    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."

    You know, I'm shocked to hear that truth-bomb from Clint Ehrlich, former Visiting Researcher at, er, the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.
    In related news, the Pope releases a statement extolling the virtues of the Catholic faith.
    ...Bears' toilet discovered in the woods.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,867
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."


    Clint Ehrlich?

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

    Of wait. You are serious?

    Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
    Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by some

    BUT HE IS RIGHT

    See also:

    ian bremmer
    @ianbremmer
    ·
    3h
    nato should support ukraine to retake all of their occupied territory from feb 24 invasion.

    crimea should be a matter for negotiation (as zelensky was willing to before the invasion), not military conflict.


    This is surely the case. By all means let Ukraine sweep the Russians out of the invaded zones - Donbass, Luhansk - if they can

    But Crimea is very different, as Musk recognised, too
    Even if that ends up happening, it hardly hurts the Ukrainians to not say so. For morale and negotiating position, even if the practicalities limit their sincere wishes to reclaim their territory (or western support is diminished, making it unviable) there's no diplomatic benefit to dropping their legitimate claims now, or suggesting there is no intent to retake it.
    The Ukrainians will absolutely try to retake Crimea. The blood is up, they want revenge, and they want Russia to HURT, and seizing Crimea will do that. And who can blame them. I am pretty sure I would feel the same if I was Ukrainian. Fuck the Russians

    But it is then a valid question: should we support them as whole heartedly as we supported them in resisting the initial invasion? Arm them with NATO weapons to take territory that, before the war, was de facto part of Russia?

    I am not sure. Because that really does look quite nuclear war-ish
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Probably nothing.

    Or there's a coup underway in Moscow:

    https://twitter.com/AmRaadPSF/status/1578790566262935553

    Looks like nothing. People in Moscow don't seem to have noticed anything.

    A bit like that phantom coup against Xi a couple of weeks ago.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    ydoethur said:

    murali_s said:

    4th Like the Tories in GE24

    Lab 514 seats
    SNP 52
    LD 33
    Con 26
    PC 5
    Grn 1
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    One can but dream 😄

    SNP His Majesty’s Official Opposition 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
    So instead of the opposition being led by a bunch of single issue fanatics and far right xenophobes who've been in power for far too long because of Labour's weakness, it would be, er...
    Yebbut... still the better option.
  • Still feels relatively warm outside here in SW London, just got a run in.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808

    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."

    You know, I'm shocked to hear that truth-bomb from Clint Ehrlich, former Visiting Researcher at, er, the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.
    In related news, the Pope releases a statement extolling the virtues of the Catholic faith.
    after his daily dump amid the trees?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,552
    There are so many economic headwinds for the Dems that keeping control of the Senate would feel like a huge victory for them .

    The House is going to be incredibly hard for them to keep . This would need the abortion issue to really help Dem turnout and even then that might not be enough .

    For the good of US democracy Trumpism needs to be dealt a huge blow in November , those GOP candidates endorsed by him need to lose.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,867
    moonshine said:

    Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.

    The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.

    Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.

    What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.

    "There’s a very weird group of people who are deathly afraid of covid but nonchalant about nuclear war."

    https://twitter.com/johndurant/status/1578609257934598144?s=20
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203
    ydoethur said:

    Probably nothing.

    Or there's a coup underway in Moscow:

    https://twitter.com/AmRaadPSF/status/1578790566262935553

    Looks like nothing. People in Moscow don't seem to have noticed anything.

    A bit like that phantom coup against Xi a couple of weeks ago.
    A couple people have noticed that the Chechens and Wagner Group are not fighting in the main sector now. Bit like they are reserving their forces for the next round of Game Of (Moscow) Thrones
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808
    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."


    Clint Ehrlich?

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

    Of wait. You are serious?

    Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
    Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by some

    BUT HE IS RIGHT
    Carry on speaking about yourself in the third person like this, and we’ll have to start worrying about you.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Still feels relatively warm outside here in SW London, just got a run in.

    Been a beautiful day here in Staffs. Certainly compared to yesterday when it rained so hard my gutters literally overflowed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Don't tell Leon: "precise explosive placement".

    NOT a truck bomb.

    https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1578722913951580168
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472

    murali_s said:

    4th Like the Tories in GE24

    Lab 514 seats
    SNP 52
    LD 33
    Con 26
    PC 5
    Grn 1
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    One can but dream 😄

    SNP His Majesty’s Official Opposition 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
    I find it hard to imagine that anybody would want that. What do you want though @StuartDickson ? You're resident Swedish arent't you? Do you have some plan to return to Scotland as the King from over the water?

    Tongue in cheek the above, but really what is it that you'd like?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,453
    Elon Musk is giving blowjobs-as-sales=pitches to both Putin and Xi. For current fun AND future (he hopes) profits.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736

    Still feels relatively warm outside here in SW London, just got a run in.

    Beautiful day in Dorset - an enjoyable, if tiring, afternoon splitting logs - but it's getting quite cool now.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,300
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.

    The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.

    Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.

    What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.

    "There’s a very weird group of people who are deathly afraid of covid but nonchalant about nuclear war."

    https://twitter.com/johndurant/status/1578609257934598144?s=20
    Makes sense. After all, these are people who are happy with wearing masks 24/7, living for months on end in a tiny confined space, and talking to no-one outside your "bubble".

    Which is pretty much what life in a post apocalyptic fallout shelter would look like.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,468
    edited October 8
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."


    Clint Ehrlich?

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

    Of wait. You are serious?

    Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
    Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by some

    BUT HE IS RIGHT

    See also:

    ian bremmer
    @ianbremmer
    ·
    3h
    nato should support ukraine to retake all of their occupied territory from feb 24 invasion.

    crimea should be a matter for negotiation (as zelensky was willing to before the invasion), not military conflict.


    This is surely the case. By all means let Ukraine sweep the Russians out of the invaded zones - Donbass, Luhansk - if they can

    But Crimea is very different, as Musk recognised, too
    Even if that ends up happening, it hardly hurts the Ukrainians to not say so. For morale and negotiating position, even if the practicalities limit their sincere wishes to reclaim their territory (or western support is diminished, making it unviable) there's no diplomatic benefit to dropping their legitimate claims now, or suggesting there is no intent to retake it.
    The Ukrainians will absolutely try to retake Crimea. The blood is up, they want revenge, and they want Russia to HURT, and seizing Crimea will do that. And who can blame them. I am pretty sure I would feel the same if I was Ukrainian. Fuck the Russians

    But it is then a valid question: should we support them as whole heartedly as we supported them in resisting the initial invasion? Arm them with NATO weapons to take territory that, before the war, was de facto part of Russia?

    I am not sure. Because that really does look quite nuclear war-ish
    They want to, but war 'fatigue' from the West is something that eill need an eye kept on, and it's not hard to see some losing their stomach when 'attacking' entrenched Russian positions.

    You for instance suggest retaking the Donbas should still be supported, but I tend to agree with the below position, that a lot of people will try to act like the war began this year, not 8 years ago - the world ignored it at the time, and plenty may well be happy to return to that position, and not back more.

    I don't think people on here are prepared for the overwhelming pressure that is going to be put on Ukraine by powerful voices in the west to stop its offensives at the 24th February lines, the same voices that also said Ukraine would lose and that we should not be arming them.

    https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1578368451889942528?cxt=HHwWgMCqudLvvucrAAAA

    The key, as ever, will be the americans - I think it is pretty clear Trump would reduce american support if he wins the next election, given what his son says.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472

    Still feels relatively warm outside here in SW London, just got a run in.

    Flags fluttering alongside you and the bodyguards minding your way?

    Well done on the promotion, and I hope you'll forgive me.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    edited October 8
    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."


    Clint Ehrlich?

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

    Of wait. You are serious?

    Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
    Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by some

    BUT HE IS RIGHT

    See also:

    ian bremmer
    @ianbremmer
    ·
    3h
    nato should support ukraine to retake all of their occupied territory from feb 24 invasion.

    crimea should be a matter for negotiation (as zelensky was willing to before the invasion), not military conflict.


    https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1578737859808227329?s=20


    This is surely the case. By all means let Ukraine sweep the Russians out of the invaded zones - Donbass, Luhansk - if they can

    But Crimea is very different, as Musk recognised, too
    This isn't about saving face for Putin, it is about saving face for all the shitty right wong think tankers who've spent thr last decade idolising Putin amd framing a Bold Masculin Russia vs Weak Woke West narrative.

    If Putin gets nothing then they get nothing. The West's response is shattering their world view and tearing down their hero. They desperately need an off ramp and they think bed wetting about nuclear war is the way to do it.
    Speaking of idolising Putin, who was extolling his anti-woke speech on here last year? The name escapes me.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,268
    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."


    He's either a wimp or a Russian troll
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,148
    Some perspective.

    Russia = 17,098,246 sq km
    Crimea = 27,000 sq km

    Do you think most Russians would demand nuclear war over Crimea?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.

    The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.

    Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.

    What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.

    "There’s a very weird group of people who are deathly afraid of covid but nonchalant about nuclear war."

    https://twitter.com/johndurant/status/1578609257934598144?s=20
    That's just culture war stuff.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,963
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.

    The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.

    Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.

    What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.

    "There’s a very weird group of people who are deathly afraid of covid but nonchalant about nuclear war."

    https://twitter.com/johndurant/status/1578609257934598144?s=20
    I'm certainly a bit concerned about nuclear covid.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203
    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."


    Clint Ehrlich?

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

    Of wait. You are serious?

    Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
    Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by some

    BUT HE IS RIGHT

    See also:

    ian bremmer
    @ianbremmer
    ·
    3h
    nato should support ukraine to retake all of their occupied territory from feb 24 invasion.

    crimea should be a matter for negotiation (as zelensky was willing to before the invasion), not military conflict.


    https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1578737859808227329?s=20


    This is surely the case. By all means let Ukraine sweep the Russians out of the invaded zones - Donbass, Luhansk - if they can

    But Crimea is very different, as Musk recognised, too
    This isn't about saving face for Putin, it is about saving face for all the shitty right wong think tankers who've spent thr last decade idolising Putin amd framing a Bold Masculin Russia vs Weak Woke West narrative.

    If Putin gets nothing then they get nothing. The West's response is shattering their world view and tearing down their hero. They desperately need an off ramp and they think bed wetting about nuclear war is the way to do it.
    Yes.

    Remember the bizarre propaganda about the protestors in Ukraine? When some of them were shot, it was all a provocation by NATO s****ite snipers. Apparently.

    If the Woke Trans Gay NATO wins in Ukraine….

    “And he was much too good a journalist to spoil his contrast by remarking that the half-dozen comparatively slender young men in blue pajamas who were standing about their victorious land ironclad, drinking coffee and eating biscuits, had also in their eyes and carriage something not altogether degraded below the level of a man.”
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    ydoethur said:

    murali_s said:

    4th Like the Tories in GE24

    Lab 514 seats
    SNP 52
    LD 33
    Con 26
    PC 5
    Grn 1
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    One can but dream 😄

    SNP His Majesty’s Official Opposition 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
    So instead of the opposition being led by a bunch of single issue fanatics and far right xenophobes who've been in power for far too long because of Labour's weakness, it would be, er...
    Yebbut... still the better option.
    The idea of the opposition is that they should be able to form a government.

    The Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and possibly even the Greens could do that in theory, as they stand a sufficient number of candidates to.

    The SNP could not. It is actually mathematically impossible.

    For them to form the opposition would be a disaster. It would upend the whole notion of it.

    Even leaving aside their unpleasant aspects, which all parties have.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977
    Boris Johnson has become an icon in Ukraine:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfkiyoY8WRk
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,468
    moonshine said:

    Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.

    The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.

    Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.

    What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.

    Neutrality was a load of horseshit from the start anyway. It's not neutrality if its mandated by one side under threat of attack, it's not a choice at that point.

    Plus the other reasons given for the invasion, such as Ukraine not being real country, and annexing those areas they control (partly), show it was never about Ukraine being neutral.

    The demand for neutrality (I recall Kissinger stating it too - yes, he's still alive it turns out) is the apperance of reasonableness covering an acceptance of imperial dominion for some states. If that is to be argued it should be honestly, not as some pretence it is what the country involved wants.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,867

    Don't tell Leon: "precise explosive placement".

    NOT a truck bomb.

    https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1578722913951580168

    This military dude thinks it was a missile

    "Kerch Bridge Missile Pictures:

    All the evidence you need that the Kerch Bridge was hit by a missile and not a truck bomb as Russian media claims.

    Pay attention to where you see the light from the explosion, it’s not coming from the truck.

    First, .1 seconds before"


    https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1578739132838207488?s=20&t=LBmX9csAkFlUd-v3OuNv9g

    An important question is: which is less embarrassing or menacing for Russia? what narrative do they want to be told?

    If it was a clever SBS style waterborne attack that is highly impressive. And suggests that Ukraine might have been responsible the the Nordstream explosion. They certainly have the motivation
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472

    Boris Johnson has become an icon in Ukraine:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfkiyoY8WRk

    Probably not an icon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Boris Johnson has become an icon in Ukraine:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfkiyoY8WRk

    They're welcome to him.

    The sooner the better.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,963
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    murali_s said:

    4th Like the Tories in GE24

    Lab 514 seats
    SNP 52
    LD 33
    Con 26
    PC 5
    Grn 1
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    One can but dream 😄

    SNP His Majesty’s Official Opposition 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
    So instead of the opposition being led by a bunch of single issue fanatics and far right xenophobes who've been in power for far too long because of Labour's weakness, it would be, er...
    Yebbut... still the better option.
    The idea of the opposition is that they should be able to form a government.

    The Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and possibly even the Greens could do that in theory, as they stand a sufficient number of candidates to.

    The SNP could not. It is actually mathematically impossible.

    For them to form the opposition would be a disaster. It would upend the whole notion of it.

    Even leaving aside their unpleasant aspects, which all parties have.
    If neither the Conservatives nor the Lib Dems could muster more MPs than the SNP, then the whole system would be upended anyway regardless of whether the SNP were "official opposition" or not. But it's not going to happen.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    Don't tell Leon: "precise explosive placement".

    NOT a truck bomb.

    https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1578722913951580168

    That's a whole bunch of supposition based on one angle. The clean break ends of the road you can see are the expansion joints, so of course they break clean. You don't see the ragged ends because they are in the see.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,867
    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.

    The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.

    Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.

    What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.

    "There’s a very weird group of people who are deathly afraid of covid but nonchalant about nuclear war."

    https://twitter.com/johndurant/status/1578609257934598144?s=20
    Makes sense. After all, these are people who are happy with wearing masks 24/7, living for months on end in a tiny confined space, and talking to no-one outside your "bubble".

    Which is pretty much what life in a post apocalyptic fallout shelter would look like.
    Droll. VG
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922
    ydoethur said:

    Boris Johnson has become an icon in Ukraine:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfkiyoY8WRk

    They're welcome to him.

    The sooner the better.
    Isnt Liz Truss in favour of 2 for 1 deals.......
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,148
    As a proportion of the total Russian land area Crimea is about the same as the Isle of Wight is to the UK.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    edited October 8
    I’m minded to agree Crimea is a bit different from the other regions here, as those maps of the old 1991 referendum show. When Ukraine liberates the other annexed territories they will be met with cheering and hugs, but the Crimean population may be a different matter.

    However, we are months away from them getting anywhere near marching on the peninsula. There’s a vast tract of land in the South and East to advance on and secure first.

    I see the bridge bombing as a strike against Russias war logistics and Putin’s ego, not the starting pistol of an offensive on Crimea
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,453
    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."


    Clint Ehrlich?

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

    Of wait. You are serious?

    Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
    Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by some

    BUT HE IS RIGHT

    See also:

    ian bremmer
    @ianbremmer
    ·
    3h
    nato should support ukraine to retake all of their occupied territory from feb 24 invasion.

    crimea should be a matter for negotiation (as zelensky was willing to before the invasion), not military conflict.


    https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1578737859808227329?s=20


    This is surely the case. By all means let Ukraine sweep the Russians out of the invaded zones - Donbass, Luhansk - if they can

    But Crimea is very different, as Musk recognised, too
    Would that be the Musk who wants Taiwan to have the same status as HK?
    That guy?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576
    moonshine said:

    Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.

    The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.

    Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.

    What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.

    Immensely powerful people of a certain mind set don't set much store by the views of ordinary people, the freedoms of a liberal society, or other people like them getting their nemesis (unless their direct enemies).

    Has anyone done analysis of where Trump stands on Ukraine in particular and Taiwan in general, on the basis of what he has said and done?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977
    Not another one...

    @JPN_PMO - Japan government organization
    [Emergency alert]
    North Korea has launched a suspected ballistic missile. More updates to follow.


    https://twitter.com/JPN_PMO/status/1578792196756893696
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,867
    edited October 8
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    A foreign policy analyst who agrees with me SO THERE

    "THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.

    A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.

    We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force."

    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1578668487139987456?s=20&t=pOBRbRAnUgnS41hCKnjORQ


    "This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.

    It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.

    It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."


    Clint Ehrlich?

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

    Of wait. You are serious?

    Hahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahahaha.
    Yes, I know he has a history of being spectacularly wrong, and is loathed as a Russian shill by some

    BUT HE IS RIGHT

    See also:

    ian bremmer
    @ianbremmer
    ·
    3h
    nato should support ukraine to retake all of their occupied territory from feb 24 invasion.

    crimea should be a matter for negotiation (as zelensky was willing to before the invasion), not military conflict.


    https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1578737859808227329?s=20


    This is surely the case. By all means let Ukraine sweep the Russians out of the invaded zones - Donbass, Luhansk - if they can

    But Crimea is very different, as Musk recognised, too
    Would that be the Musk who wants Taiwan to have the same status as HK?
    That guy?
    There's an entertaining "lunch with the FT" featuring Musk today

    https://www.ft.com/content/5ef14997-982e-4f03-8548-b5d67202623a

    Tho in fact they have dinner, at his favourite Tex Mex joint. I want to go. It sounds amazing

    I am in favour of the fact Musk drinks margaritas. He is amusing
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,819
    TimS said:

    I’m minded to think Crimea is a big different from the other regions here, as those maps of the old 1991 referendum show. When Ukraine liberates the other annexed territories they will be met with cheering and hugs, but the Crimean population may be a different matter.

    However, we are months away from them getting anywhere near marching on the peninsula. There’s a vast tract of land in the South and East to advance on and secure first.

    I see the bridge bombing as a strike against Russias war logistics and Putin’s ego, not the starting pistol of an offensive on Crimea

    The benefit of taking Crimea for Ukraine is that they are in an amazing bargaining position.

    They can keep it, they can demonstrate their credentials by allowing a referendum of the population and show they really are the good guys or they can make terms with Russia where (Elon will love this) they hand it to Russia in return for huge reparations and a guarantee that Crimea remains neutral/demilitarised.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    Torn between minimising the incident and escalation, the Russians seem to have opted for minimisation. The rail bridge is open already apparently (lol)

    https://twitter.com/markurban01/status/1578796297859268608?s=21&t=G9-B8gIgyPaz1q4-hjyMmQ
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    algarkirk said:

    moonshine said:

    Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.

    The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.

    Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.

    What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.

    Immensely powerful people of a certain mind set don't set much store by the views of ordinary people, the freedoms of a liberal society, or other people like them getting their nemesis (unless their direct enemies).

    Has anyone done analysis of where Trump stands on Ukraine in particular and Taiwan in general, on the basis of what he has said and done?

    Trump attempted to extort the President of Ukraine over badly needed anti tank weapons.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,552
    Oh Dear poor Truss . The latest Opinium poll is a horror show for her.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808

    As a proportion of the total Russian land area Crimea is about the same as the Isle of Wight is to the UK.

    and yet they get a bridge…
  • Omnium said:

    Still feels relatively warm outside here in SW London, just got a run in.

    Flags fluttering alongside you and the bodyguards minding your way?

    Well done on the promotion, and I hope you'll forgive me.
    Thank you - Happy Horse forgives all
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472
    IanB2 said:

    As a proportion of the total Russian land area Crimea is about the same as the Isle of Wight is to the UK.

    and yet they get a bridge…
    Do you imagine a bridge to the IoW would ever clear planning?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,453
    Coincidence? Kismet? Conspiracy?

    Could the Soviets Cut Off Crimea? - WW2 - October 8, 1943

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=et3FWnoLIy0

    Or just chickens coming home to roost?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,607
    Leon is becoming some kind of disinformation service.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472

    Omnium said:

    Still feels relatively warm outside here in SW London, just got a run in.

    Flags fluttering alongside you and the bodyguards minding your way?

    Well done on the promotion, and I hope you'll forgive me.
    Thank you - Happy Horse forgives all
    I rather liked the suggestions a day or so ago that you should now style yourself as CorrectHorseRegiment.

    I guess though you'll forgive us if we style you CHB.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,867
    TimS said:

    I’m minded to agree Crimea is a bit different from the other regions here, as those maps of the old 1991 referendum show. When Ukraine liberates the other annexed territories they will be met with cheering and hugs, but the Crimean population may be a different matter.

    However, we are months away from them getting anywhere near marching on the peninsula. There’s a vast tract of land in the South and East to advance on and secure first.

    I see the bridge bombing as a strike against Russias war logistics and Putin’s ego, not the starting pistol of an offensive on Crimea

    If Kherson falls in the coming days (quite possible) then the Ukrainians might go for Crimea FIRST, as it is so strategic, and would cause maximum humiliation for Putin: an actual proper defeat, losing territory he was so proud of winning without a shot in 2014. Also, with the bridge largely out of action the Ukes can totally isolate Crimea by cutting Russia's landroute along the Azovite coast

    Then Crimea hangs, exposed, like a ripe mango. Pluck it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited October 8
    Retaining control of the Senate for the Democrats while losing the House would certainly be a boost to Biden but not unprecedented.

    Trump in 2018 and Obama in 2010 in his first midterm saw their party lose the House but hold the Senate. Reagan in 1982 also saw the GOP hold the Senate but fail to win the House.

    Indeed Bill Clinton is the only US President in the last 50 years to have had such a disastrous first midterms that his party lost control of both the House and Senate (Bush 41 and Ford's parties controlled neither chamber when they came to office anyway). Ironically though Clinton was re elected in 1996
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,148
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I’m minded to agree Crimea is a bit different from the other regions here, as those maps of the old 1991 referendum show. When Ukraine liberates the other annexed territories they will be met with cheering and hugs, but the Crimean population may be a different matter.

    However, we are months away from them getting anywhere near marching on the peninsula. There’s a vast tract of land in the South and East to advance on and secure first.

    I see the bridge bombing as a strike against Russias war logistics and Putin’s ego, not the starting pistol of an offensive on Crimea

    If Kherson falls in the coming days (quite possible) then the Ukrainians might go for Crimea FIRST, as it is so strategic, and would cause maximum humiliation for Putin: an actual proper defeat, losing territory he was so proud of winning without a shot in 2014. Also, with the bridge largely out of action the Ukes can totally isolate Crimea by cutting Russia's landroute along the Azovite coast

    Then Crimea hangs, exposed, like a ripe mango. Pluck it
    It's not that strategic if the bridge is shot. Most of the Kherson oblast is the other side of the Dnipro. Quite a long to get to Crimea.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,778
    Alistair said:

    Don't tell Leon: "precise explosive placement".

    NOT a truck bomb.

    https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1578722913951580168

    That's a whole bunch of supposition based on one angle. The clean break ends of the road you can see are the expansion joints, so of course they break clean. You don't see the ragged ends because they are in the see.
    Which see? Kiev and all Rus?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I’m minded to agree Crimea is a bit different from the other regions here, as those maps of the old 1991 referendum show. When Ukraine liberates the other annexed territories they will be met with cheering and hugs, but the Crimean population may be a different matter.

    However, we are months away from them getting anywhere near marching on the peninsula. There’s a vast tract of land in the South and East to advance on and secure first.

    I see the bridge bombing as a strike against Russias war logistics and Putin’s ego, not the starting pistol of an offensive on Crimea

    If Kherson falls in the coming days (quite possible) then the Ukrainians might go for Crimea FIRST, as it is so strategic, and would cause maximum humiliation for Putin: an actual proper defeat, losing territory he was so proud of winning without a shot in 2014. Also, with the bridge largely out of action the Ukes can totally isolate Crimea by cutting Russia's landroute along the Azovite coast

    Then Crimea hangs, exposed, like a ripe mango. Pluck it
    At every step so far they’ve taken the right course and I think as propaganda coups go the greatest goal must be the recapture of (the burned remains of) Mariupol, followed by the city of Donetsk. But who knows.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203

    Leon is becoming some kind of disinformation service.

    Leon is becoming some kind of disinformation service.

    Fixed that for you. No charge.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    murali_s said:

    4th Like the Tories in GE24

    Lab 514 seats
    SNP 52
    LD 33
    Con 26
    PC 5
    Grn 1
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    One can but dream 😄

    SNP His Majesty’s Official Opposition 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
    And completely powerless given the huge Labour majority. It would actually be better for the SNP to win fewer seats but hold the balance of power in a hung parliament in terms of getting any influence
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,584
    Oh mate.


  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472

    Imagine if Boris’s bridge to Northern Ireland had been destroyed by some kind of Von der Leyen-Varadkar axis special ops.

    The idea of a bridge (to Ireland generally) isn't a bad thing. Not practical yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited October 8

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SNP Depute leader Keith Brown #snp22: “Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.”

    Blair’s *worst* GE result in Scotland was winning 41 seats

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578684082179158016

    That was before Iraq and Better Together.
    Labour still held the bulk of their seats in 2010. There is no reason Labour cannot do it again someday.
    Yes there is.

    Anti-French parties do not do well in French elections.
    Anti-Danish parties do not do well in Danish elections.
    Anti-Irish parties do not do well in Irish elections.
    Anti-Scottish parties do not do well in Scottish elections.

    The necessary prerequisite for Labour success in Scotland is them rediscovering their pro-Scottish heritage.
    You think Labour is anti-Scotland, I don't. You think Labour is anti-Scotland because they are against Independence, I don't agree.
    Being part of better together labour just showed themselves to be no different to the other unionist parties. They’d been better served allowing their MPs/officials to campaign for whichever cause they supported. We will end up,with an independent Scotland eventually. Better to allow Indy supporting parts of the party to embrace it.
    Wise advice.

    Instead Anas has conducted a purge of pro-independence candidates and members. Odd behaviour when 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence.
    Given the shift of SCon voters to SLAB over recent weeks the percentage of SLAB voters pro independence will now be much less than 38%
    Fair point. But it is a dreadful strategy.

    Starmer is fishing in a pool of soft SCons, which is approx 8pp, at best. Instead, he should be trying to win back the voters his party lost to the SNP and Greens post-Better Together, approx 25pp.

    But hey, what do I know?
    Nationalists will stick with Nationalist parties ie SNP and Green.

    Starmer and Sarwar have instead now achieved the more realistic goal of making Scottish Labour the main Unionist party in Scotland again and the main alternative to the SNP
    I love Unionists who lack ambition 😄

    Your mistake is to think that everyone in Scotland is either a Unionist or a Nationalist. They’re really, really not. The normal people in the middle far outweigh the 100% convinced ends of the spectrum. The SNP and Greens at least make an honest effort to appeal to Middle Scotland. Keir Starmer abandoned that possibility the second he adopted Michael Gove’s ‘muscular Unionism’ lock, stock and barrel.
    The SNP are still on roughly the 45% Yes got in 2014.

    SLAB are appealing now to the majority of the 55% who voted No then for the first time since the referendum
    You’re stuck in the past.

    The SNP are appealing not just to the 52% who support independence, but also to the 38% who still support devolution.

    Labour have set themselves a low ceiling by only appealing to the 38% who support devolution.

    Elementary arithmetic errors will be the death of the Union.
    Nope. The latest Yougov Scottish Westminster poll has the SNP on 45%, ie only those who voted Yes in 2014.

    Scottish Labour now up to 31%
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1577725231333920769?s=20&t=cOcT4j2I4kbPR5_kFa3ARA
    Funny how you always forget the Green and Alba votes, plus the 38% of Scottish Labour voters who are pro-independence, plus a few pp of the SLD and SCon votes.
    Even adding the Green percentage (Alba don't yet stand at Westminster) the Nationalist parties combined are only on 48% to 50% for the combined Unionist parties.

    As mentioned earlier less than 38% of SLab voters now back independence given the SCon movement to SLab and some SNP voters are still Unionists too
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,867

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I’m minded to agree Crimea is a bit different from the other regions here, as those maps of the old 1991 referendum show. When Ukraine liberates the other annexed territories they will be met with cheering and hugs, but the Crimean population may be a different matter.

    However, we are months away from them getting anywhere near marching on the peninsula. There’s a vast tract of land in the South and East to advance on and secure first.

    I see the bridge bombing as a strike against Russias war logistics and Putin’s ego, not the starting pistol of an offensive on Crimea

    If Kherson falls in the coming days (quite possible) then the Ukrainians might go for Crimea FIRST, as it is so strategic, and would cause maximum humiliation for Putin: an actual proper defeat, losing territory he was so proud of winning without a shot in 2014. Also, with the bridge largely out of action the Ukes can totally isolate Crimea by cutting Russia's landroute along the Azovite coast

    Then Crimea hangs, exposed, like a ripe mango. Pluck it
    It's not that strategic if the bridge is shot. Most of the Kherson oblast is the other side of the Dnipro. Quite a long to get to Crimea.
    It has airfields and naval bases. Sevastopol

    It would also be an enormous psychological blow against Putin: losing Crimea. And the Ukes want to hurt Putin
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,842
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I’m minded to agree Crimea is a bit different from the other regions here, as those maps of the old 1991 referendum show. When Ukraine liberates the other annexed territories they will be met with cheering and hugs, but the Crimean population may be a different matter.

    However, we are months away from them getting anywhere near marching on the peninsula. There’s a vast tract of land in the South and East to advance on and secure first.

    I see the bridge bombing as a strike against Russias war logistics and Putin’s ego, not the starting pistol of an offensive on Crimea

    If Kherson falls in the coming days (quite possible) then the Ukrainians might go for Crimea FIRST, as it is so strategic, and would cause maximum humiliation for Putin: an actual proper defeat, losing territory he was so proud of winning without a shot in 2014. Also, with the bridge largely out of action the Ukes can totally isolate Crimea by cutting Russia's landroute along the Azovite coast

    Then Crimea hangs, exposed, like a ripe mango. Pluck it
    The problem of Crimea from Kherson for the Ukrainians is the same as the problem of Kherson from Crimea for the Russians, namely supply over the Dnieper with so many of the bridges out. I don't know if that logistical issue is more solvable from the Ukrainian side, but I suspect as possible is an advance along the Zaporizhzhia - Melitopol axis to secure some control East of the Dnieper before any advance from a liberated Kherson.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,607
    Conor Burns, who has just been sacked for misbehaviour allegations, is to be knighted in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,607
    Omnium said:

    Imagine if Boris’s bridge to Northern Ireland had been destroyed by some kind of Von der Leyen-Varadkar axis special ops.

    The idea of a bridge (to Ireland generally) isn't a bad thing. Not practical yet.
    It’s a shit idea precisely because it’s not practical.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472

    Conor Burns, who has just been sacked for misbehaviour allegations, is to be knighted in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours.

    I now not to be.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,644

    Leon is becoming some kind of disinformation service.

    Bridge must have been destroyed by some artificially intelligent aliens?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604

    Conor Burns, who has just been sacked for misbehaviour allegations, is to be knighted in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours.

    The Tories’ capacity for self harm is mind blowing right now.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,259
    Liz has to go. Sticking with her is completely pointless. It is completely without a point. No alternative action could possibly result in a worse outcome.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808

    Conor Burns, who has just been sacked for misbehaviour allegations, is to be knighted in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours.

    And now both Bournemouth MPs sit as ex-Tory independents
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,607
    IanB2 said:

    Conor Burns, who has just been sacked for misbehaviour allegations, is to be knighted in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours.

    And now both Bournemouth MPs sit as ex-Tory independents
    There’s something fucked up in the water down there.

    Chope, Swayne…
This discussion has been closed.