I’m minded to agree Crimea is a bit different from the other regions here, as those maps of the old 1991 referendum show. When Ukraine liberates the other annexed territories they will be met with cheering and hugs, but the Crimean population may be a different matter.
However, we are months away from them getting anywhere near marching on the peninsula. There’s a vast tract of land in the South and East to advance on and secure first.
I see the bridge bombing as a strike against Russias war logistics and Putin’s ego, not the starting pistol of an offensive on Crimea
If Kherson falls in the coming days (quite possible) then the Ukrainians might go for Crimea FIRST, as it is so strategic, and would cause maximum humiliation for Putin: an actual proper defeat, losing territory he was so proud of winning without a shot in 2014. Also, with the bridge largely out of action the Ukes can totally isolate Crimea by cutting Russia's landroute along the Azovite coast
Then Crimea hangs, exposed, like a ripe mango. Pluck it
The problem of Crimea from Kherson for the Ukrainians is the same as the problem of Kherson from Crimea for the Russians, namely supply over the Dnieper with so many of the bridges out. I don't know if that logistical issue is more solvable from the Ukrainian side, but I suspect as possible is an advance along the Zaporizhzhia - Melitopol axis to secure some control East of the Dnieper before any advance from a liberated Kherson.
A drive to the Black Sea coast, splitting the Russian zone in two, must be tempting. Take back Mariupol, avenge its sufferings
Sky News focus group of former Tory voters - embarrassed by and ashamed of the Conservative Party - negative references to Johnson as well as Truss. Having absolutely slated Truss they say another change of leader won’t help; expect Labour to win next time. Half already switched to intending a Labour vote, half undecided.
Sky News focus group of former Tory voters - embarrassed by and ashamed of the Conservative Party - negative references to Johnson as well as Truss. Having absolutely slated Truss they say another change of leader won’t help; expect Labour to win next time. Half already switched to intending a Labour vote, half undecided.
The right change should stabilise the markets which is very important right now
Starmer is heading to no 10 but he is facing years of tax increases, public sector cuts, and austerity and I do not think the country has woken up to the consequences of covid, war and yes the mishandling of the economy by Truss/ Kwarteng
"Burns, 50, was a close friend of Margaret Thatcher in her final years"
Whilst I don't wish to suggest intergenerational friendships are not a thing, I call bullshit on the idea Thatcher was 'close friends' with someone 47 years her junior.
Boris just has great judgement in friends and allies - Paterson, Burns, Pincher
Imagine if Boris’s bridge to Northern Ireland had been destroyed by some kind of Von der Leyen-Varadkar axis special ops.
The idea of a bridge (to Ireland generally) isn't a bad thing. Not practical yet.
It’s a shit idea precisely because it’s not practical.
Come along. The idea of flight in the 18th century wasn't shit.
I love trains.
I want a high speed train linking Derry, Belfast and Dublin.
I want a high speed train from Holyhead to Hull.
Neither have, I suppose, a good business case behind them, but at least they are buildable.
That's really unambitious. Why not build a tunnel from Caergybi to Dublin and link the lot?
A bridge or tunnel between Ireland and England, Wales or Scotland is eminently feasible technically - there are plenty of possible routes with advantages and disadvantages. Where the idea falls down is economics. And it falls down in a big way. It would be a humongous project.
Sky News focus group of former Tory voters - embarrassed by and ashamed of the Conservative Party - negative references to Johnson as well as Truss. Having absolutely slated Truss they say another change of leader won’t help; expect Labour to win next time. Half already switched to intending a Labour vote, half undecided.
In the present political climate it would be good if someone could write a thread header on just how Starmer and labour would deal with the economic and political issues they are likely to face in 2024
In the present political climate it would be good if someone could write a thread header on just how Starmer and labour would deal with the economic and political issues they are likely to face in 2024
It's likely to get even worse, so would rapidly be out of date.
Why is it that now is suddenly the time for a “diplomatic” solution, when the hard work has been done and Russia is about to be handed its arse in the field? No no no.
The Musk proposal was utterly appalling by the way Leon. The idea of “neutrality” for Ukraine, when they’ve just been subjected to an invasion against all past treaties? No. “Fair” referendums on statehood when so many have been killed, fled or illegally moved into the area? Come off it. Trading away sovereign territory because a nuclear armed autocrat keeps smirking that he has “means at his disposal”? Absolutely 100% not or this will indeed be the most dangerous few decades for life on this planet in some millions of years.
Elon topped off his week by saying Taiwan should just become an “autonomous” region of China. Yuck.
What’s concerning is he likely didn’t come up with this stuff in a vacuum but because “realist” buddies of his in the US steered him that way. Ukraine are showing the way, hold firm and send the bully packing.
"There’s a very weird group of people who are deathly afraid of covid but nonchalant about nuclear war."
There’s a word for those who resort to straw men arguments, too.
I’ve been busy today, so I don’t know if you ever answered my question about what this ‘settlement / off-ramp’ you keep pushing actually looks like ? How does it work ?
How do you achieve agreement within the present coalition for that to happen - particularly when countries like Poland and the Baltic states see this as existential for them too ? What is left of NATO afterwards ?
If you manage the above, and threaten to, or actually withhold aid from Ukraine, does it stop fighting ?
And equally, if that support is withdrawn, does Russia stop its campaign of destruction of the Ukrainian state ?
Even assuming Ukraine can be coerced in such a manner to surrender its territory, what then ? Putin’s adversaries will have demonstrated that they will submit to nuclear blackmail. What’s to prevent a third attempt by Russia ? And what then ?
And none if the above takes account of the wider message - that unless you possess nuclear weapons, you may be invaded, and even the closest your allies will abandon you. And if you’re ran aggressive state that does possess nuclear weapons, you can engage in nuclear blackmail as cover for your aggressions.
It’s perfectly possible to be very worried indeed about nuclear conflict, and still think that appeasement of fascistic dictators is a very dangerous policy.
"Burns, 50, was a close friend of Margaret Thatcher in her final years"
Whilst I don't wish to suggest intergenerational friendships are not a thing, I call bullshit on the idea Thatcher was 'close friends' with someone 47 years her junior.
Boris just has great judgement in friends and allies - Paterson, Burns, Pincher
Oh Dear poor Truss . The latest Opinium poll is a horror show for her.
Good evening
Every opinion poll is a horror show for her and it is either she goes or the conservative party is heading for extinction
Hopefully her mps will find a way to remove her now they will be back in Parliament
I would just add Kwarteng has been an unbelievable failure but if Truss goes so does he
The one thing @HYUFD and I agree on is Wallace PM and Sunak COE to help restore confidence in the market
Wallace wholeheartedly backed Truss. He could have sat back.
IDS was replaced by coronation by Michael Howard who also backed him in the leadership election and was his Shadow Chancellor. However Howard's Shadow Cabinet contained a wider range of the party.
A leader elected by MPs by coronation would almost certainly have to have been a Truss supporter to avoid a membership revolt and a challenge from a Truss loyalist and a safe pair of hands
"Burns, 50, was a close friend of Margaret Thatcher in her final years"
Whilst I don't wish to suggest intergenerational friendships are not a thing, I call bullshit on the idea Thatcher was 'close friends' with someone 47 years her junior.
Boris just has great judgement in friends and allies - Paterson, Burns, Pincher
She was. I know Conor well.
That's totally true.
Well, I take it back then, but what an odd couple mix.
Sky News focus group of former Tory voters - embarrassed by and ashamed of the Conservative Party - negative references to Johnson as well as Truss. Having absolutely slated Truss they say another change of leader won’t help; expect Labour to win next time. Half already switched to intending a Labour vote, half undecided.
Cogent case being made on twitter that FGs are a bit meh, basically an unweighted n=8 opinion poll where we aren't told selection criteria.
In the present political climate it would be good if someone could write a thread header on just how Starmer and labour would deal with the economic and political issues they are likely to face in 2024
It's likely to get even worse, so would rapidly be out of date.
I agree that 2024 is looking very difficult for any government
Imagine if Boris’s bridge to Northern Ireland had been destroyed by some kind of Von der Leyen-Varadkar axis special ops.
The idea of a bridge (to Ireland generally) isn't a bad thing. Not practical yet.
It’s a shit idea precisely because it’s not practical.
Come along. The idea of flight in the 18th century wasn't shit.
I love trains.
I want a high speed train linking Derry, Belfast and Dublin.
I want a high speed train from Holyhead to Hull.
Neither have, I suppose, a good business case behind them, but at least they are buildable.
Standing tough under stars and stripes, we can tell This dream's in sight, you've got to admit it At this point in time that it's clear The future looks bright On that train, all graphite and glitter Undersea by rail Ninety minutes from New York to Paris Well, by '76 we'll be a-okay
What a beautiful world this will be What a glorious time to be free What a beautiful world this will be (Ooh, ah) What a glorious time to be free
"Burns, 50, was a close friend of Margaret Thatcher in her final years"
Whilst I don't wish to suggest intergenerational friendships are not a thing, I call bullshit on the idea Thatcher was 'close friends' with someone 47 years her junior.
Boris just has great judgement in friends and allies - Paterson, Burns, Pincher
"This isn't a matter of providing "offramps" for Putin.
It's about whether we keep driving on the "onramp" that leads directly towards nuclear.
It's time to ease off the accelerator and pull over to the side of the road. Before we slam into a wall."
Leaving aside anything else, there's plenty of time - things have moved pretty fast this last month compared to the months prior (and in a positive direction for Ukraine), but they still seem a long long way from being able to contemplate an attempt to retake Crimea.
If the Ukrainians attempted to retake Crimea, and it's still a very big 'if', it would only be after they had recovered Kherson, Mariupol, and a host of other parts of newly invaded Ukraine.
Crimea would - and will - be much harder for Ukraine.
But it's not clear why we would want to tie the hands of the Ukrainians behind their backs before they have cleared the Russians from newly annexed lands.
I’m minded to agree Crimea is a bit different from the other regions here, as those maps of the old 1991 referendum show. When Ukraine liberates the other annexed territories they will be met with cheering and hugs, but the Crimean population may be a different matter.
However, we are months away from them getting anywhere near marching on the peninsula. There’s a vast tract of land in the South and East to advance on and secure first.
I see the bridge bombing as a strike against Russias war logistics and Putin’s ego, not the starting pistol of an offensive on Crimea
Crimea though does give Russia substantial control of the Black Sea coast and total control of the Azov coast. Ukraine needs to control it, or at least have it demilitarised, in order to safely guard its seaways.
"Burns, 50, was a close friend of Margaret Thatcher in her final years"
Whilst I don't wish to suggest intergenerational friendships are not a thing, I call bullshit on the idea Thatcher was 'close friends' with someone 47 years her junior.
Boris just has great judgement in friends and allies - Paterson, Burns, Pincher
"Burns, 50, was a close friend of Margaret Thatcher in her final years"
Whilst I don't wish to suggest intergenerational friendships are not a thing, I call bullshit on the idea Thatcher was 'close friends' with someone 47 years her junior.
Boris just has great judgement in friends and allies - Paterson, Burns, Pincher
She was. I know Conor well.
That's totally true.
Well, I take it back then, but what an odd couple mix.
He's close friends with Mark Worthington who was her longstanding private secretary and became friends with her in the late 1990s.
She came to speak for him several times as a parliamentary candidate before she succumbed to dementia.
"Burns, 50, was a close friend of Margaret Thatcher in her final years"
Whilst I don't wish to suggest intergenerational friendships are not a thing, I call bullshit on the idea Thatcher was 'close friends' with someone 47 years her junior.
Boris just has great judgement in friends and allies - Paterson, Burns, Pincher
"Burns, 50, was a close friend of Margaret Thatcher in her final years"
Whilst I don't wish to suggest intergenerational friendships are not a thing, I call bullshit on the idea Thatcher was 'close friends' with someone 47 years her junior.
Boris just has great judgement in friends and allies - Paterson, Burns, Pincher
"Burns, 50, was a close friend of Margaret Thatcher in her final years"
Whilst I don't wish to suggest intergenerational friendships are not a thing, I call bullshit on the idea Thatcher was 'close friends' with someone 47 years her junior.
Boris just has great judgement in friends and allies - Paterson, Burns, Pincher
She was. I know Conor well.
That's totally true.
Well, I take it back then, but what an odd couple mix.
He's close friends with Mark Worthington who was her longstanding private secretary and became friends with her in the late 1990s.
She came to speak for him several times as a parliamentary candidate before she succumbed to dementia.
Isn't Conor known in Westminster as "Thatcher's representative on earth"?
"Burns, 50, was a close friend of Margaret Thatcher in her final years"
Whilst I don't wish to suggest intergenerational friendships are not a thing, I call bullshit on the idea Thatcher was 'close friends' with someone 47 years her junior.
Boris just has great judgement in friends and allies - Paterson, Burns, Pincher
"Burns, 50, was a close friend of Margaret Thatcher in her final years"
Whilst I don't wish to suggest intergenerational friendships are not a thing, I call bullshit on the idea Thatcher was 'close friends' with someone 47 years her junior.
Boris just has great judgement in friends and allies - Paterson, Burns, Pincher
She was. I know Conor well.
That's totally true.
Well, I take it back then, but what an odd couple mix.
He's close friends with Mark Worthington who was her longstanding private secretary and became friends with her in the late 1990s.
She came to speak for him several times as a parliamentary candidate before she succumbed to dementia.
My good friend "Urban" the notorious black clad heroin dealer called me today. During Covid he got dangerously ill, fell on his face, and suffered serious brain damage, yet he still keeps cheerful and has opinions
He told me he's gone right off Truss. And if she's lost the brain damaged ex-heroin dealers who only wear black she's in a pickle, no mistake
Looks like nothing. People in Moscow don't seem to have noticed anything.
A bit like that phantom coup against Xi a couple of weeks ago.
Why would there be a coup in China before the People's Congress?
It is possible, but still unlikely, that Xi's bid for a third term will hit the rocks. Chinese leaders have been allowed to retire safely will fortunes, so it's not like he'd be strung up like Putin.
And the Zero Covid policy and the support for Russia (combined with an ongoing low level financial crisis playing out in China) makes his position less strong than he was.
I'd make it a 75% chance that he gets a third term, and a 25% chance that he does not.
Why do we think the economy is going to suffer so much?
I'm sure a recession is on the way but doesn't this mean we're out of the whole deflation/low interest rate zombie days? Natural gas prices have been coming down and the European price is half the peak in the summer. So we'll see. A decent recovery is not impossible provided we have sensible policies. I'd question the amount of damage Truss and Kwarteng can actually do in a month, all we need is a reverse gear. I'm more worried about the long term future of the public realm. The courts, the prisons, the boring stuff that governments have to do day in and day out. Leon made a point the other day about HMRC. The new software we are getting doesn't fill me with confidence about the service we will provide and if you can't collect the taxes that are due you can't fund the NHS.
Liz has to go. Sticking with her is completely pointless. It is completely without a point. No alternative action could possibly result in a worse outcome.
Though I’m inclined to agree, one should not tempt fate quite so egregiously.
"Burns, 50, was a close friend of Margaret Thatcher in her final years"
Whilst I don't wish to suggest intergenerational friendships are not a thing, I call bullshit on the idea Thatcher was 'close friends' with someone 47 years her junior.
Boris just has great judgement in friends and allies - Paterson, Burns, Pincher
"Burns, 50, was a close friend of Margaret Thatcher in her final years"
Whilst I don't wish to suggest intergenerational friendships are not a thing, I call bullshit on the idea Thatcher was 'close friends' with someone 47 years her junior.
Boris just has great judgement in friends and allies - Paterson, Burns, Pincher
She was. I know Conor well.
That's totally true.
Well, I take it back then, but what an odd couple mix.
He's close friends with Mark Worthington who was her longstanding private secretary and became friends with her in the late 1990s.
She came to speak for him several times as a parliamentary candidate before she succumbed to dementia.
Bollocks.
I love the way you (who are totally ignorant of the facts) feel qualified to comment on this.
I met Thatcher twice because of Conor and she regularly came to see him when he was a parliamentary candidate in Eastleigh. He was one of the few people who'd visit her regularly right until the end. His friendship with her is even cited in Charles Moore's third biography of her. Mark Worthington would verify it, as would Carol Thatcher or anyone else who knew her and Conor well.
You are wrong. Shut up and stop making a fool of yourself because you'd prefer to think differently.
In the present political climate it would be good if someone could write a thread header on just how Starmer and labour would deal with the economic and political issues they are likely to face in 2024
It's likely to get even worse, so would rapidly be out of date.
I agree that 2024 is looking very difficult for any government
The main decision will be whether to ration the boiled rats or hand them out on a "first come first served" basis, with special VIP status for anyone whose eyes haven't melted, as they will be needed for corpse burial
Sky News focus group of former Tory voters - embarrassed by and ashamed of the Conservative Party - negative references to Johnson as well as Truss. Having absolutely slated Truss they say another change of leader won’t help; expect Labour to win next time. Half already switched to intending a Labour vote, half undecided.
Cogent case being made on twitter that FGs are a bit meh, basically an unweighted n=8 opinion poll where we aren't told selection criteria.
They're a pukka qualitative research tool (e.g. teasing out why people dislike Truss). Suck for quantitative insight for all the reasons you mention.
In the present political climate it would be good if someone could write a thread header on just how Starmer and labour would deal with the economic and political issues they are likely to face in 2024
It's likely to get even worse, so would rapidly be out of date.
I agree that 2024 is looking very difficult for any government
The main decision will be whether to ration the boiled rats or hand them out on a "first come first served" basis, with special VIP status for anyone whose eyes haven't melted, as they will be needed for corpse burial
And there's me thinking it was what would happen if we don't win Euro 24 football.
Allies of the MP claim he had injured his ribs the weekend before the party conference and was on heavy medication to manage the pain.
They suggested the prescribed medicine made the effect of the alcohol worse.
It is not disputed by the former minister's friends that he had been drinking or that he flirted with the young man who had joined him, who, we understand, was not known to Mr Burns.
The MP was sufficiently drunk that he had to later be taken back to his hotel by a friend.
My good friend "Urban" the notorious black clad heroin dealer called me today. During Covid he got dangerously ill, fell on his face, and suffered serious brain damage, yet he still keeps cheerful and has opinions
He told me he's gone right off Truss. And if she's lost the brain damaged ex-heroin dealers who only wear black she's in a pickle, no mistake
I guess heroin dealers like her ultra libertarian politics?
Imagine if Boris’s bridge to Northern Ireland had been destroyed by some kind of Von der Leyen-Varadkar axis special ops.
The idea of a bridge (to Ireland generally) isn't a bad thing. Not practical yet.
It’s a shit idea precisely because it’s not practical.
Come along. The idea of flight in the 18th century wasn't shit.
I love trains.
I want a high speed train linking Derry, Belfast and Dublin.
I want a high speed train from Holyhead to Hull.
Neither have, I suppose, a good business case behind them, but at least they are buildable.
There's a really good case for a high speed train from Dublin to Belfast, especially if the stops were Dublin - Dublin Airport - Belfast. There's no reason why it should take more than 40 minutes, if you put really fast rail in.
"Burns, 50, was a close friend of Margaret Thatcher in her final years"
Whilst I don't wish to suggest intergenerational friendships are not a thing, I call bullshit on the idea Thatcher was 'close friends' with someone 47 years her junior.
Boris just has great judgement in friends and allies - Paterson, Burns, Pincher
"Burns, 50, was a close friend of Margaret Thatcher in her final years"
Whilst I don't wish to suggest intergenerational friendships are not a thing, I call bullshit on the idea Thatcher was 'close friends' with someone 47 years her junior.
Boris just has great judgement in friends and allies - Paterson, Burns, Pincher
She was. I know Conor well.
That's totally true.
Well, I take it back then, but what an odd couple mix.
He's close friends with Mark Worthington who was her longstanding private secretary and became friends with her in the late 1990s.
She came to speak for him several times as a parliamentary candidate before she succumbed to dementia.
Bollocks.
I love the way you (who are totally ignorant of the facts) feel qualified to comment on this.
I met Thatcher twice because of Conor and she regularly came to see him when he was a parliamentary candidate in Eastleigh. He was one of the few people who'd visit her regularly right until the end. His friendship with her is even cited in Charles Moore's third biography of her. Mark Worthington would verify it, as would Carol Thatcher or anyone else who knew her and Conor well.
You are wrong. Shut up and stop making a fool of yourself because you'd prefer to think differently.
Liz has to go. Sticking with her is completely pointless. It is completely without a point. No alternative action could possibly result in a worse outcome.
Though I’m inclined to agree, one should not tempt fate quite so egregiously.
I'm no Truss fan, but I do think Putin would be a worse PM...
Allies of the MP claim he had injured his ribs the weekend before the party conference and was on heavy medication to manage the pain.
They suggested the prescribed medicine made the effect of the alcohol worse.
It is not disputed by the former minister's friends that he had been drinking or that he flirted with the young man who had joined him, who, we understand, was not known to Mr Burns.
The MP was sufficiently drunk that he had to later be taken back to his hotel by a friend.
We have become absurdly puritanical. His drunken fumblings are more sad than menacing, and merit a proper ticking off, not cancellation. Unless there is more to it
If all this plotting seems like pie in the sky, it is nonetheless remarkable that it is going on at all. A former minister suggested Sunak and Penny Mordaunt, who finished second and third in the leadership contest, should visit Truss to tell her the game is up. A former Downing Street aide revealed: “Penny is full on manoeuvres. She told someone directly that she was restarting her campaign.”
Another MP added: “The options are death if we stick with Liz or ridicule if we get someone else and right now ridicule seems preferable.”
Imagine if Boris’s bridge to Northern Ireland had been destroyed by some kind of Von der Leyen-Varadkar axis special ops.
The idea of a bridge (to Ireland generally) isn't a bad thing. Not practical yet.
It’s a shit idea precisely because it’s not practical.
Come along. The idea of flight in the 18th century wasn't shit.
I love trains.
I want a high speed train linking Derry, Belfast and Dublin.
I want a high speed train from Holyhead to Hull.
Neither have, I suppose, a good business case behind them, but at least they are buildable.
Standing tough under stars and stripes, we can tell This dream's in sight, you've got to admit it At this point in time that it's clear The future looks bright On that train, all graphite and glitter Undersea by rail Ninety minutes from New York to Paris Well, by '76 we'll be a-okay
What a beautiful world this will be What a glorious time to be free What a beautiful world this will be (Ooh, ah) What a glorious time to be free
Ah, God. I miss the 1980s. All that optimism. Everything was going to get better. And the music was lovely
I watched Point Break the weekend before last. It was a delight to watch a film about an America which didn't hate itself. There were bank robbers. But they just wanted money. There were no lectures on racism or climate change or alternative sexualities or any other moral shortcomings of the west. It was just a story. A slightky ludicrous story, granted. But beautifully shot. (ok, this was actually 90s. But the poont holds.)
My good friend "Urban" the notorious black clad heroin dealer called me today. During Covid he got dangerously ill, fell on his face, and suffered serious brain damage, yet he still keeps cheerful and has opinions
He told me he's gone right off Truss. And if she's lost the brain damaged ex-heroin dealers who only wear black she's in a pickle, no mistake
I guess heroin dealers like her ultra libertarian politics?
He's actually surprisingly conservative on many issues. Given that he is, or was, an international heroin trafficker supplying The Beige to supermodels in Mayfair. Gets cheesed off with speeding motorists in his hood, etc
It's like the way people expect gays or blacks to be leftwing. We all expect majorly important heroin dealers to be louche and amoral. Many are upstanding, and would be hard working Tory local councillors in a parallel universe
Allies of the MP claim he had injured his ribs the weekend before the party conference and was on heavy medication to manage the pain.
They suggested the prescribed medicine made the effect of the alcohol worse.
It is not disputed by the former minister's friends that he had been drinking or that he flirted with the young man who had joined him, who, we understand, was not known to Mr Burns.
The MP was sufficiently drunk that he had to later be taken back to his hotel by a friend.
We have become absurdly puritanical. His drunken fumblings are more sad than menacing, and merit a proper ticking off, not cancellation. Unless there is more to it
If that's all it was he will get the whip restored in time, since it would be wrong but not terminal, so his career won't be ended.
In the meantime he'd be a distraction as a minister, and if he chooses to get that pissed whilst on medication to boot clearly lacks the judgement to be one.
The days of people unable to control themselves whilst serving in office are indeed over (at least when it comes to light). Is that puritannical? Perhaps, but all they have to do is not get shitfaced at public events.
Behind the scenes, [Shapps] is understood to have been in contact with both Johnson and Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor, in a bid to gauge whether they are prepared to join an effort to oust Truss.
According to fellow rebel MPs, Shapps is even offering himself as a caretaker prime minister, though few others regard him as realistic because he once used an alter ego – Michael Green – to sell get rich quick schemes on the internet. One rebel observer noted, wryly: “That rules out Grant but I’m not sure his get rich schemes were any more dubious than the chancellor’s.”
In the present political climate it would be good if someone could write a thread header on just how Starmer and labour would deal with the economic and political issues they are likely to face in 2024
Bit early to know what Reeves will face in late 2024 economically. It looks like it will be totally dire but two years is a long time at the moment.
Looks like nothing. People in Moscow don't seem to have noticed anything.
A bit like that phantom coup against Xi a couple of weeks ago.
Why would there be a coup in China before the People's Congress?
It is possible, but still unlikely, that Xi's bid for a third term will hit the rocks. Chinese leaders have been allowed to retire safely will fortunes, so it's not like he'd be strung up like Putin.
And the Zero Covid policy and the support for Russia (combined with an ongoing low level financial crisis playing out in China) makes his position less strong than he was.
I'd make it a 75% chance that he gets a third term, and a 25% chance that he does not.
I'm not sure the support for Russia is there anymore. He didn't even congratulate Putin on his 70th birthday but found the time to do so for the President of Tajikistan.
"Burns, 50, was a close friend of Margaret Thatcher in her final years"
Whilst I don't wish to suggest intergenerational friendships are not a thing, I call bullshit on the idea Thatcher was 'close friends' with someone 47 years her junior.
Boris just has great judgement in friends and allies - Paterson, Burns, Pincher
She was. I know Conor well.
That's totally true.
So you associate with weirdos, no surprise there then
Allies of the MP claim he had injured his ribs the weekend before the party conference and was on heavy medication to manage the pain.
They suggested the prescribed medicine made the effect of the alcohol worse.
It is not disputed by the former minister's friends that he had been drinking or that he flirted with the young man who had joined him, who, we understand, was not known to Mr Burns.
The MP was sufficiently drunk that he had to later be taken back to his hotel by a friend.
We have become absurdly puritanical. His drunken fumblings are more sad than menacing, and merit a proper ticking off, not cancellation. Unless there is more to it
If that's all it was he will get the whip restored in time, so his career won't be ended.
In the meantime he'd be a distraction as a minister, and if he chooses to get that pissed whilst on medication to boot clearly lacks the judgement to be one.
The days of people unable to control themselves whilst serving in office are indeed over (at least when it comes to light). Is that puritannical? Perhaps, but all they have to do is not get shitfaced at public events.
But how are you ever going to get laid if you aren't allowed to furtively grope someone in a bar?
A lot of my best relationships have started with a bit of ludicrous, embarrassing, very drunken fumbling under a table. The lady thrusts your hand away, but in an equivocal manner which says Hmmm, maybe, but come back to me when you're sober
A friend gets in touch to say this is the kind of vicious comments I used to make about Mark Reckless.
If Shapps is causing concern, Michael Gove is causing fury in No 10. He went public last week with his opposition to the 45p tax cut, branding it a “display of the wrong values”.
Downing Street sources say Gove’s troublemaking came after Truss privately contacted the former levelling up secretary to seek his advice and offer him a job. They met for tea in the state room at No 10 on September 26, the Monday before conference.
Gove told Truss “how much he admired her” and praised the energy price support package, though he made clear that he did not support the abolition of the top rate of tax. Truss, in turn, asked Gove if he was interested in a new role. Nothing was explicitly offered but the PM alluded to a senior diplomatic role working with a major ally. Possibilities could have been Israel or the United Arab Emirates where ambassadorial vacancies are soon due to arise.
In Downing Street’s view, Gove went to Birmingham and “stabbed the PM in the back”. A senior Conservative said: “Michael Gove is trying to destroy another Tory leader.”
In an astonishing attack on Gove’s character, a friend of Truss added: “Michael is troubled and has never found his place in the sun. There is something deeply troubling about the darkness inside him. It grips him and it takes over.
“It corrupts his soul. The more he plots, the more baggage he collects and the more conflicted he then becomes about who and what he is. His answer to everything is more tax, more salami slicing, more failed economics. The Tory party has rejected him.”
A Gove ally denied that he had gone behind Truss’s back. “Michael had told his whip and Liz directly that this is what he was going to do,” the source said, also accusing Downing Street of briefing an “inaccurate account” of the conversation.
But accounts have reached the whips that Gove was privately suggesting the biggest names should “get the old gang back together”. One MP said: “Michael thinks Boris and Rishi should come together and get the show back on the road.” It is unclear how this might work, given that Sunak resigned from Johnson’s government and Johnson sacked Gove as an act of revenge for his betrayal in 2016.
Shapps’s spreadsheet details how the PM has already lost the support of the so-called G- Group of about 20 right-wing conservatives. One of the most prominent was Peter Bone, who was made deputy leader of the Commons by Johnson, voted for Truss, joined her transition team and was then sacked. “She just abolished his post,” a senior MP said. “She has taken somebody who was loyal to her and crossed the road to make an enemy. Not one of the people in the group now support her.”
You do have to ask just how she thinks she can continue
As important Sir Graham Brady should ask her the same question
Because she's the elected leader of the Conservative Party and has a parliamentary majority? She needs an opinion poll lead in May 2024, not now.
She needs to not be this far behind, or this hated, now though. Opinions are being set. A growing economy before an election won't help that, as I think Major could tell us.
Behind the scenes, [Shapps] is understood to have been in contact with both Johnson and Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor, in a bid to gauge whether they are prepared to join an effort to oust Truss.
According to fellow rebel MPs, Shapps is even offering himself as a caretaker prime minister, though few others regard him as realistic because he once used an alter ego – Michael Green – to sell get rich quick schemes on the internet. One rebel observer noted, wryly: “That rules out Grant but I’m not sure his get rich schemes were any more dubious than the chancellor’s.”
The funniest thing I read on here in a while (it had both me and @Gardenwalker spitting out our tea) was that Grant Shapps is Grant Shapps in a wig.
Behind the scenes, [Shapps] is understood to have been in contact with both Johnson and Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor, in a bid to gauge whether they are prepared to join an effort to oust Truss.
According to fellow rebel MPs, Shapps is even offering himself as a caretaker prime minister, though few others regard him as realistic because he once used an alter ego – Michael Green – to sell get rich quick schemes on the internet. One rebel observer noted, wryly: “That rules out Grant but I’m not sure his get rich schemes were any more dubious than the chancellor’s.”
Imagine if Boris’s bridge to Northern Ireland had been destroyed by some kind of Von der Leyen-Varadkar axis special ops.
The idea of a bridge (to Ireland generally) isn't a bad thing. Not practical yet.
It’s a shit idea precisely because it’s not practical.
Come along. The idea of flight in the 18th century wasn't shit.
I love trains.
I want a high speed train linking Derry, Belfast and Dublin.
I want a high speed train from Holyhead to Hull.
Neither have, I suppose, a good business case behind them, but at least they are buildable.
Standing tough under stars and stripes, we can tell This dream's in sight, you've got to admit it At this point in time that it's clear The future looks bright On that train, all graphite and glitter Undersea by rail Ninety minutes from New York to Paris Well, by '76 we'll be a-okay
What a beautiful world this will be What a glorious time to be free What a beautiful world this will be (Ooh, ah) What a glorious time to be free
Ah, God. I miss the 1980s. All that optimism. Everything was going to get better. And the music was lovely
I watched Point Break the weekend before last. It was a delight to watch a film about an America which didn't hate itself. There were bank robbers. But they just wanted money. There were no lectures on racism or climate change or alternative sexualities or any other moral shortcomings of the west. It was just a story. A slightky ludicrous story, granted. But beautifully shot. (ok, this was actually 90s. But the poont holds.)
Yes, it was often a little obnoxious, but the cocky America that liked itself is greatly preferable to the nervous, self-loathing superpower in steep decline we see now
I watched Top Gun Maverick the other day. The perfect movie to encapsulate this mood. America is an ageing Tom Cruise. Dyeing its hair but wondering why it bothers. Has a flashy motorbike but rarely uses it. Fancies a nice cocoa but has to get in the jet one more time
Allies of the MP claim he had injured his ribs the weekend before the party conference and was on heavy medication to manage the pain.
They suggested the prescribed medicine made the effect of the alcohol worse.
It is not disputed by the former minister's friends that he had been drinking or that he flirted with the young man who had joined him, who, we understand, was not known to Mr Burns.
The MP was sufficiently drunk that he had to later be taken back to his hotel by a friend.
We have become absurdly puritanical. His drunken fumblings are more sad than menacing, and merit a proper ticking off, not cancellation. Unless there is more to it
What baffles me is why MPs get this pissed, where it matters. Him and Pincher and the Labour guy who punched people in the HoC bar. Virtually all adult drinkers find an equilibrium at which they don't get punching/groping/escort back to hotel drunk beyond the age at which they graduate, let alone in highest high profile work settings.
You do have to ask just how she thinks she can continue
As important Sir Graham Brady should ask her the same question
Because she's the elected leader of the Conservative Party and has a parliamentary majority? She needs an opinion poll lead in May 2024, not now.
I respectably disagree
She has been an utter disaster for the party, is out of touch with the public, and both she and Kwarteng have misjudged the markets which have passed their own verdict on both of them
While mortgage rates were rising towards 5% they have been directly responsible for another 1 per cent or more and this will see in the market for millions of mortgage holders, prepossessions, negative equity and all the horrors of this which last time took 10 years to alleviate. It may well have happened anyway but by their stupidity they own this in the eyes of the public
For these reasons she has to go now - there is no way back for her
Comments
Every opinion poll is a horror show for her and it is either she goes or the conservative party is heading for extinction
Hopefully her mps will find a way to remove her now they will be back in Parliament
I would just add Kwarteng has been an unbelievable failure but if Truss goes so does he
The one thing @HYUFD and I agree on is Wallace PM and Sunak COE to help restore confidence in the market
I want a high speed train linking Derry, Belfast and Dublin.
I want a high speed train from Holyhead to Hull.
Neither have, I suppose, a good business case behind them, but at least they are buildable.
Starmer is heading to no 10 but he is facing years of tax increases, public sector cuts, and austerity and I do not think the country has woken up to the consequences of covid, war and yes the mishandling of the economy by Truss/ Kwarteng
I have to say though that the train on the south island that took me along the coast was great.
Whilst I don't wish to suggest intergenerational friendships are not a thing, I call bullshit on the idea Thatcher was 'close friends' with someone 47 years her junior.
Boris just has great judgement in friends and allies - Paterson, Burns, Pincher
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/05/liz-truss-already-less-popular-boris-johnson-ever-
I’ve been busy today, so I don’t know if you ever answered my question about what this ‘settlement / off-ramp’ you keep pushing actually looks like ?
How does it work ?
How do you achieve agreement within the present coalition for that to happen - particularly when countries like Poland and the Baltic states see this as existential for them too ?
What is left of NATO afterwards ?
If you manage the above, and threaten to, or actually withhold aid from Ukraine, does it stop fighting ?
And equally, if that support is withdrawn, does Russia stop its campaign of destruction of the Ukrainian state ?
Even assuming Ukraine can be coerced in such a manner to surrender its territory, what then ?
Putin’s adversaries will have demonstrated that they will submit to nuclear blackmail. What’s to prevent a third attempt by Russia ?
And what then ?
And none if the above takes account of the wider message - that unless you possess nuclear weapons, you may be invaded, and even the closest your allies will abandon you.
And if you’re ran aggressive state that does possess nuclear weapons, you can engage in nuclear blackmail as cover for your aggressions.
It’s perfectly possible to be very worried indeed about nuclear conflict, and still think that appeasement of fascistic dictators is a very dangerous policy.
That's totally true.
A leader elected by MPs by coronation would almost certainly have to have been a Truss supporter to avoid a membership revolt and a challenge from a Truss loyalist and a safe pair of hands
Standing tough under stars and stripes, we can tell
This dream's in sight, you've got to admit it
At this point in time that it's clear
The future looks bright
On that train, all graphite and glitter
Undersea by rail
Ninety minutes from New York to Paris
Well, by '76 we'll be a-okay
What a beautiful world this will be
What a glorious time to be free
What a beautiful world this will be (Ooh, ah)
What a glorious time to be free
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ueivjr3f8xg
Ah, God. I miss the 1980s. All that optimism. Everything was going to get better. And the music was lovely
Among voters who backed the Tories at the last election, 41% say she should remain in post, while 39% say she should resign.
Labour’s lead of 21 points is biggest Opinium has recorded.
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1578781269756104705
Feels like a lot of suspensions for less than 3 years but I don't know the usual amount.
Liz Truss’s personal approval rating of -47 is the worst ever recorded for a PM by the company.
A worse rating than Johnson during partygate & May in the weeks before her resignation.
There's more... 🧵
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1578781265297563649
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-rebels-smartphone-spreadsheet-that-means-liz-truss-is-still-in-deep-trouble-0shzg86hq?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1665249707-1
Crimea would - and will - be much harder for Ukraine.
But it's not clear why we would want to tie the hands of the Ukrainians behind their backs before they have cleared the Russians from newly annexed lands.
As important Sir Graham Brady should ask her the same question
That's totally true. He's close friends with Mark Worthington who was her longstanding private secretary and became friends with her in the late 1990s.
She came to speak for him several times as a parliamentary candidate before she succumbed to dementia.
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death Rode the 356...
He used to go and see her most Sundays.
He told me he's gone right off Truss. And if she's lost the brain damaged ex-heroin dealers who only wear black she's in a pickle, no mistake
It is possible, but still unlikely, that Xi's bid for a third term will hit the rocks. Chinese leaders have been allowed to retire safely will fortunes, so it's not like he'd be strung up like Putin.
And the Zero Covid policy and the support for Russia (combined with an ongoing low level financial crisis playing out in China) makes his position less strong than he was.
I'd make it a 75% chance that he gets a third term, and a 25% chance that he does not.
I'm sure a recession is on the way but doesn't this mean we're out of the whole deflation/low interest rate zombie days? Natural gas prices have been coming down and the European price is half the peak in the summer. So we'll see. A decent recovery is not impossible provided we have sensible policies. I'd question the amount of damage Truss and Kwarteng can actually do in a month, all we need is a reverse gear. I'm more worried about the long term future of the public realm. The courts, the prisons, the boring stuff that governments have to do day in and day out. Leon made a point the other day about HMRC. The new software we are getting doesn't fill me with confidence about the service we will provide and if you can't collect the taxes that are due you can't fund the NHS.
I met Thatcher twice because of Conor and she regularly came to see him when he was a parliamentary candidate in Eastleigh. He was one of the few people who'd visit her regularly right until the end. His friendship with her is even cited in Charles Moore's third biography of her. Mark Worthington would verify it, as would Carol Thatcher or anyone else who knew her and Conor well.
You are wrong. Shut up and stop making a fool of yourself because you'd prefer to think differently.
Probably crap.
https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/1578804663721537537
They suggested the prescribed medicine made the effect of the alcohol worse.
It is not disputed by the former minister's friends that he had been drinking or that he flirted with the young man who had joined him, who, we understand, was not known to Mr Burns.
The MP was sufficiently drunk that he had to later be taken back to his hotel by a friend.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63187793
Is that it? Does that now end careers?
We have become absurdly puritanical. His drunken fumblings are more sad than menacing, and merit a proper ticking off, not cancellation. Unless there is more to it
Another MP added: “The options are death if we stick with Liz or ridicule if we get someone else and right now ridicule seems preferable.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-rebels-smartphone-spreadsheet-that-means-liz-truss-is-still-in-deep-trouble-0shzg86hq
Nice to see the posh set waking up to the glories of Peckham, Brockley and "the new Hampstead Heath," Telegraph Hill.
It was a delight to watch a film about an America which didn't hate itself.
There were bank robbers. But they just wanted money. There were no lectures on racism or climate change or alternative sexualities or any other moral shortcomings of the west. It was just a story.
A slightky ludicrous story, granted. But beautifully shot.
(ok, this was actually 90s. But the poont holds.)
It's like the way people expect gays or blacks to be leftwing. We all expect majorly important heroin dealers to be louche and amoral. Many are upstanding, and would be hard working Tory local councillors in a parallel universe
In the meantime he'd be a distraction as a minister, and if he chooses to get that pissed whilst on medication to boot clearly lacks the judgement to be one.
The days of people unable to control themselves whilst serving in office are indeed over (at least when it comes to light). Is that puritannical? Perhaps, but all they have to do is not get shitfaced at public events.
Behind the scenes, [Shapps] is understood to have been in contact with both Johnson and Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor, in a bid to gauge whether they are prepared to join an effort to oust Truss.
According to fellow rebel MPs, Shapps is even offering himself as a caretaker prime minister, though few others regard him as realistic because he once used an alter ego – Michael Green – to sell get rich quick schemes on the internet. One rebel observer noted, wryly: “That rules out Grant but I’m not sure his get rich schemes were any more dubious than the chancellor’s.”
A lot of my best relationships have started with a bit of ludicrous, embarrassing, very drunken fumbling under a table. The lady thrusts your hand away, but in an equivocal manner which says Hmmm, maybe, but come back to me when you're sober
And so it goes
If Shapps is causing concern, Michael Gove is causing fury in No 10. He went public last week with his opposition to the 45p tax cut, branding it a “display of the wrong values”.
Downing Street sources say Gove’s troublemaking came after Truss privately contacted the former levelling up secretary to seek his advice and offer him a job. They met for tea in the state room at No 10 on September 26, the Monday before conference.
Gove told Truss “how much he admired her” and praised the energy price support package, though he made clear that he did not support the abolition of the top rate of tax. Truss, in turn, asked Gove if he was interested in a new role. Nothing was explicitly offered but the PM alluded to a senior diplomatic role working with a major ally. Possibilities could have been Israel or the United Arab Emirates where ambassadorial vacancies are soon due to arise.
In Downing Street’s view, Gove went to Birmingham and “stabbed the PM in the back”. A senior Conservative said: “Michael Gove is trying to destroy another Tory leader.”
In an astonishing attack on Gove’s character, a friend of Truss added: “Michael is troubled and has never found his place in the sun. There is something deeply troubling about the darkness inside him. It grips him and it takes over.
“It corrupts his soul. The more he plots, the more baggage he collects and the more conflicted he then becomes about who and what he is. His answer to everything is more tax, more salami slicing, more failed economics. The Tory party has rejected him.”
A Gove ally denied that he had gone behind Truss’s back. “Michael had told his whip and Liz directly that this is what he was going to do,” the source said, also accusing Downing Street of briefing an “inaccurate account” of the conversation.
But accounts have reached the whips that Gove was privately suggesting the biggest names should “get the old gang back together”. One MP said: “Michael thinks Boris and Rishi should come together and get the show back on the road.” It is unclear how this might work, given that Sunak resigned from Johnson’s government and Johnson sacked Gove as an act of revenge for his betrayal in 2016.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11293049/NHS-soup-shake-diet-cure-Type-2-diabetes.html
I watched Top Gun Maverick the other day. The perfect movie to encapsulate this mood. America is an ageing Tom Cruise. Dyeing its hair but wondering why it bothers. Has a flashy motorbike but rarely uses it. Fancies a nice cocoa but has to get in the jet one more time
She has been an utter disaster for the party, is out of touch with the public, and both she and Kwarteng have misjudged the markets which have passed their own verdict on both of them
While mortgage rates were rising towards 5% they have been directly responsible for another 1 per cent or more and this will see in the market for millions of mortgage holders, prepossessions, negative equity and all the horrors of this which last time took 10 years to alleviate. It may well have happened anyway but by their stupidity they own this in the eyes of the public
For these reasons she has to go now - there is no way back for her