politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ladbrokes odds on the Rochester and Strood by election
Rochester & Strood byelection odds:
2/5 UKIP
3/1 Cons
8/1 Labour
Comments
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First!0
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FPT: @MarqueeMark
Labour could win if it retains the National poll swings - and then just - depending on how the cookie crumbles between the Tories and UKIP. Remember Labour didn't win this seat even in 2005 !
I am not so sure UKIP will win this one. But on the back of Clacton, who knows ?
Tories should be favourites !0 -
Hmm. If UKIP win that's obviously great for them, but if they lose after probably winning Clacton and maybe the Labour seat, won't that rather diminish their efforts to build up momentum pre-election?0
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What the Tories need is a rich punter to smash them into favouritism to deter any defectors lined up for later this week.0
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FPT If Labour is truly to form a Government in 2015, then the 8/1 on them is where the money is. They should be coming through the middle of a hopelessly split Tory/UKIP vote - something like 35%-30%-30%...... A failure by Labour shows just how much UKIP is hurting them too.
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When is Cameron's speech ? The next defection on that day ? What are the odds ?DecrepitJohnL said:What the Tories need is a rich punter to smash them into favouritism to deter any defectors lined up for later this week.
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Odds have shortened on the tories already.
If Reckless loses, the Carswell convention for kipper defectors may prevent further ones demonstrating their "principles"
But what would make me laugh would be the eurosceptic candidate losing the next tory leadership contest by 2 MPs.
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The Labour seat is looking like a safe Labour hold.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. If UKIP win that's obviously great for them, but if they lose after probably winning Clacton and maybe the Labour seat, won't that rather diminish their efforts to build up momentum pre-election?
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Mr. Dave, if that's so, then it's doubleplusungood for the blues. UKIP start looking a deeper shade of Tory again, putting off WWC Labour sorts, and tempting even more very blue fellows.0
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I think we need to ask how many defections would it take for Cameron to be forced out.
Could he carry on as PM but not as leader of the Tory party?0 -
Oh, no ! Another Scottish Tory surge ! There are in government already there. They are called the Tartan Tories ! If some of them split and go tp the Tories, Labour wins !SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.0 -
It is one thing to defect. All parties have had defectors who have become disillusioned with their party.
It is another to defect and to do so at a time to cause maximum damage to the party you are leaving.
That suggests a malevolence and a cunning that ill rewards those who have worked at a local level to get you elected.
It doesn't suggest a honest tussle with your beliefs, and then gradually coming round to the fact that the party no longer represents your views.
So, for that reason, I don't have any sympathy with Reckless. I hope he loses, and almost anyone would be a better representative for R&S.0 -
There is no purpose for Labour to win the seat now, they'd hold the seat for six months but it'd be an almost certain Tory gain back next May. What would be better for them is if Reckless won the seat and created a genuine three way contest for the General Election.
Having said that I think UKIP will win regardless of what Labour do, they'll get Labour and Lib Dem switchers as well as Tory ones.
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Good Morning.
As much as I was amused about Brooks Newmarks troubles, the way The Mirror sprung that trap was, I feel, criminal in it's intent.
Rupert Myers @RupertMyers 28m
The Mirror's creepy tactics against Brooks Newmark are shameful. Whoever thought this up is no journalist http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/brooks-newmark-resignation#4y20v3 …0 -
I don't think the Tories would entirely mind Labour winning this one. It will provide a useful demonstration of how a split vote on the right benefits Miliband.MarqueeMark said:FPT If Labour is truly to form a Government in 2015, then the 8/1 on them is where the money is. They should be coming through the middle of a hopelessly split Tory/UKIP vote - something like 35%-30%-30%...... A failure by Labour shows just how much UKIP is hurting them too.
I have two separate family members and a number of friends living in the constituency so I will be keeping my ear on the ground.0 -
Quite so, Morris Dancer. It's the final limb of the Miliband Paradox. Having driven the protest vote away to the new pastures of UKIP by being so crap, Miliband has made UKIP sufficiently attractive to defectors who, being primarily from the Tory party, then disabuse protest voters of the notion that UKIP is really a working class, welfarist haven. The end result is that Labour's vote holds up, and the Tories are damaged by the defections. It is, quite inadvertently, a brilliant strategy.0
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I'd be surprised if the official CCHQ word has not gone out to STFU about EV4EL and anything else that might reinforce the bairn-eating-Tories meme.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.0 -
Better to lose now and get another bite come election time, than hang on to the seat till then, and lose.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. If UKIP win that's obviously great for them, but if they lose after probably winning Clacton and maybe the Labour seat, won't that rather diminish their efforts to build up momentum pre-election?
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SeanT
I think that there is something in that, but not for the reasons you mentioned. The reality is the SNP have swung way to the left in a desperate bid to outflank Labour. The only problem is that they couldn't deliver their homelands for the referendum.
The SNP blame Labour for losing the election (apparently we sent to many resources from "the south") they are bitter angry and determined to take Labour on as the "pure" left wing party.
A similar mistake to the Libs in 2005.
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I think the value is on the Tories. They're going to fight very hard for this one. There will be a large anti-Reckless vote, and his best chance/hope will be if it's split between Lab and Con, but I think there'll be a markedly differential level of effort. Labour didn't seem to bother at all in Newark, and I suggest it'll be the same story here.0
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"There is no purpose for Labour to win the seat now, they'd hold the seat for six months but it'd be an almost certain Tory gain back next May. What would be better for them is if Reckless won the seat and created a genuine three way contest."
It is certainly true that, if Reckless wins, it is well worth being in a good second-place. So, both Labour & Tory should throw the sink as this.
It will be an exciting by-election.
I think the Tory strategy should not be Glasgow East (a quick by-election), but it should be Glenrothes (a long lead-in.)0 -
You lot are forgetting the SNP surge in purely Labour seats. Should the voters stick with change, Labour will surely lose a majority in parliament after the GE, even if they are the biggest party in seats.surbiton said:
Oh, no ! Another Scottish Tory surge ! There are in government already there. They are called the Tartan Tories ! If some of them split and go tp the Tories, Labour wins !SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
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It was a Labour seat 1997-2010. Pretty well the same boundaries anyway.YBarddCwsc said:"There is no purpose for Labour to win the seat now, they'd hold the seat for six months but it'd be an almost certain Tory gain back next May. What would be better for them is if Reckless won the seat and created a genuine three way contest."
It is certainly true that, if Reckless wins, it is well worth being in a good second-place. So, both Labour & Tory should throw the sink as this.
It will be an exciting by-election.
I think the Tory strategy should not be Glasgow East (a quick by-election), but it should be Glenrothes (a long lead-in.)0 -
@paulhutcheon: Exclusive: Johann Lamont secures review of @scottishlabour structures and ties with UK party @newsundayherald http://t.co/T1EJkPSsp20
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@LabourList: Scottish Labour plans to wrest control of Westminster selections from NEC http://t.co/Yv2GjzL8JF0
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You have a wicked sense of humour. But I agree.foxinsoxuk said:Odds have shortened on the tories already.
If Reckless loses, the Carswell convention for kipper defectors may prevent further ones demonstrating their "principles"
But what would make me laugh would be the eurosceptic candidate losing the next tory leadership contest by 2 MPs.0 -
Why? The polling suggests the Scots are quite relaxed about EVEL - indeed, the SNP have long practiced it.DecrepitJohnL said:
I'd be surprised if the official CCHQ word has not gone out to STFU about EV4EL and anything else that might reinforce the bairn-eating-Tories meme.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
It's Labour who don't like EVEL, for reasons to obvious to mention....0 -
Why? Because of the anti-Scots tone that accompanies it. Look back over the post-indyref threads.CarlottaVance said:
Why? The polling suggests the Scots are quite relaxed about EVEL - indeed, the SNP have long practiced it.DecrepitJohnL said:
I'd be surprised if the official CCHQ word has not gone out to STFU about EV4EL and anything else that might reinforce the bairn-eating-Tories meme.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
It's Labour who don't like EVEL, for reasons to obvious to mention....0 -
Reckless must be hoping for a Carswell-inspired "UKIP can do it" bounce, because Mike's "double-digit lead" (which sounds like 10-20%) is unlikely to be enough at this stage.
The Tories can go hard on Reckless, knowing that if Labour win, it barely matters. Indeed it might reinforce vote UKIP get Labour.0 -
The screw the poor Green party level with LDs.
Pay more for car use, pay more for energy, pay more for flights, pay more taxes on petrol, car ownership, parking fees, parking permits cos we know best. Bunch of authoritarian shysters posing as saviours of penguins and polar bears, a last refuge for poseurs & scoundrels.0 -
The Tories won it in 2005OldKingCole said:
It was a Labour seat 1997-2010. Pretty well the same boundaries anyway.YBarddCwsc said:"There is no purpose for Labour to win the seat now, they'd hold the seat for six months but it'd be an almost certain Tory gain back next May. What would be better for them is if Reckless won the seat and created a genuine three way contest."
It is certainly true that, if Reckless wins, it is well worth being in a good second-place. So, both Labour & Tory should throw the sink as this.
It will be an exciting by-election.
I think the Tory strategy should not be Glasgow East (a quick by-election), but it should be Glenrothes (a long lead-in.)0 -
I agree - it's a honey trap. The Mirror should come clean about whose photos they used to get Newmark to send photos of himself. Did they hire a model for that specific purpose? Or did they just take them from the internet? And this stuff about Newmark initiating the exchange... unbelievably unlucky for him that the 'woman' just happens to be a male Mirror journalist who's up for sending nude pictures of herself. It's totally unethical.MikeK said:Good Morning.
As much as I was amused about Brooks Newmarks troubles, the way The Mirror sprung that trap was, I feel, criminal in it's intent.
Rupert Myers @RupertMyers 28m
The Mirror's creepy tactics against Brooks Newmark are shameful. Whoever thought this up is no journalist http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/brooks-newmark-resignation#4y20v3 …0 -
It will not be to the Tories , that is for sure. Their leader is crap , now being interviewed by police for knowing postal votes early. Tories still toxic, Labour and LD's hated and Support for non BT parties exploding.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.0 -
FPT @DecrepitJohnL
Clark was (rather pretensiously) referencing Bob Armstrong's comments in the Australian Spycatcher trial
Lawyer: What is the difference between a misleading impression and a lie?
Armstrong: A lie is a straight untruth
L: What is a misleading impression - a sort of bent untruth?
A: As one person said [Edmund Burke] it is perhaps being "economical with the truth"
(Burke didn't actually use the phrase but he reference to, "as in the exercise of all virtues, there is an economy of truth")0 -
The seat didnt exist on these boundaries in 2005. BMA won the seat that actually existed (having earlier conceded defeat) for Labour. The change in boundaries threw the notional majority back to Tories by a small amount.ThomasNashe said:
The Tories won it in 2005OldKingCole said:
It was a Labour seat 1997-2010. Pretty well the same boundaries anyway.YBarddCwsc said:"There is no purpose for Labour to win the seat now, they'd hold the seat for six months but it'd be an almost certain Tory gain back next May. What would be better for them is if Reckless won the seat and created a genuine three way contest."
It is certainly true that, if Reckless wins, it is well worth being in a good second-place. So, both Labour & Tory should throw the sink as this.
It will be an exciting by-election.
I think the Tory strategy should not be Glasgow East (a quick by-election), but it should be Glenrothes (a long lead-in.)
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Look at the polls - the Scots see it as a question of fairness and it's something the SNP does already - where's the issue (apart from Labour parliamentary arithmetic)?DecrepitJohnL said:
Why? Because of the anti-Scots tone that accompanies it. Look back over the post-indyref threads.CarlottaVance said:
Why? The polling suggests the Scots are quite relaxed about EVEL - indeed, the SNP have long practiced it.DecrepitJohnL said:
I'd be surprised if the official CCHQ word has not gone out to STFU about EV4EL and anything else that might reinforce the bairn-eating-Tories meme.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
It's Labour who don't like EVEL, for reasons to obvious to mention....
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The timing by Reckless will infuriate many Tories and I'd expect to see a Newark type kitchen-sink thrown at him... I've never been a blue-activist but it's certainly got my blood boiling and tempts me to go and help the blues in some way.ThomasNashe said:I think the value is on the Tories. They're going to fight very hard for this one. There will be a large anti-Reckless vote, and his best chance/hope will be if it's split between Lab and Con, but I think there'll be a markedly differential level of effort. Labour didn't seem to bother at all in Newark, and I suggest it'll be the same story here.
It may help in some ways, lose Clacton was seemingly inevitable despite my irrational support of Rev Oswald but if they can then take out Reckless in November that MIGHT draw a line until the election.....
Trying to look for a positive - not that easy though....0 -
We wont be able to rely on your vote then?dr_spyn said:The screw the poor Green party level with LDs.
Pay more for car use, pay more for energy, pay more for flights, pay more taxes on petrol, car ownership, parking fees, parking permits cos we know best. Bunch of authoritarian shysters posing as saviours of penguins and polar bears, a last refuge for poseurs & scoundrels.
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Who are LAB going to lose Scottish seats to? Not the Nats who failed to get their vote out on Sept 18.SeanT said:
I specifically avoided the word "surge"!! hah.Smarmeron said:@SeanT
An orgasmic surge of "toryism"? I wouldn't bet the house on it, but an uptick is likely.
However a quadrupling of their seats could easily be described as a surge. That is to say, I can see them getting 4 or 5 seats on a good day. Nothing world-shaking, but a definite revival, and all helpful to the cause in what could be a tight election, especially if Labour are going to LOSE 10-15 seats north of the Border, which seems quite possible.0 -
I stand corrected. How could I forget him conceding the seat, blaming Blair for the loss of it, only to scrape home after all!Neil said:
The seat didnt exist on these boundaries in 2005. BMA won the seat that actually existed (having earlier conceded defeat) for Labour. The change in boundaries threw the notional majority back to Tories by a small amount.ThomasNashe said:
The Tories won it in 2005OldKingCole said:
It was a Labour seat 1997-2010. Pretty well the same boundaries anyway.YBarddCwsc said:"There is no purpose for Labour to win the seat now, they'd hold the seat for six months but it'd be an almost certain Tory gain back next May. What would be better for them is if Reckless won the seat and created a genuine three way contest."
It is certainly true that, if Reckless wins, it is well worth being in a good second-place. So, both Labour & Tory should throw the sink as this.
It will be an exciting by-election.
I think the Tory strategy should not be Glasgow East (a quick by-election), but it should be Glenrothes (a long lead-in.)0 -
The problem I see for a tory "surge" in Scotland is that the consolidation of the Yes vote puts the SNP in a very strong position. The traditional heartlands of Tory Scotland in Angus, Perthshire, Aberdeenshire etc have been SNP for a long time. In these seats the SNP will lose votes from those that voted no but they will also gain votes from those that voted yes.
It is difficult to see such an equation resulting in Tory gains. The borders are a better bet for 2 reasons. Firstly one of the targets is Lib Dem and they are in melt down. Secondly the yes vote was barely 30%. I think Dumfries from Labour is a good chance for the same reason.
Another Lib Dem seat in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine looks a good prospect for the same reasons. After that it gets a bit tricky but North East Fife and Argyll and Bute are very long odd outsiders as is Gordon but I suspect that will go SNP.0 -
I'm in Spain where I'm blocked from getting into my Ladbrokes account. I though this was supposed to be the open market?0
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Having read the whole sordid saga I felt rather sorry for him - middle aged man thinking with little head shocker! But in his position he's done the right thing and killed the story stone dead.Blueberry said:
I agree - it's a honey trap. The Mirror should come clean about whose photos they used to get Newmark to send photos of himself. Did they hire a model for that specific purpose? Or did they just take them from the internet? And this stuff about Newmark initiating the exchange... unbelievably unlucky for him that the 'woman' just happens to be a male Mirror journalist who's up for sending nude pictures of herself. It's totally unethical.MikeK said:Good Morning.
As much as I was amused about Brooks Newmarks troubles, the way The Mirror sprung that trap was, I feel, criminal in it's intent.
Rupert Myers @RupertMyers 28m
The Mirror's creepy tactics against Brooks Newmark are shameful. Whoever thought this up is no journalist http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/brooks-newmark-resignation#4y20v3 …0 -
1st!
To put money on the Rochester and Strood by election on Betfair!0 -
The hyperventilation over UKIP is becoming ever more hilarious.volcanopete said:The veneer of Ukip's libertariansim is shown yet again by Farage ditching the Wags Tax proposal in the style of a formidable totalitarian.Führerprinzip in an authoritarian party-bad news for any non-Aryan humans.
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Update - Betfair have put up a market on R&S
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.1157074460 -
Well, you rather underestimated Spurs in the last week ...Scrapheap_as_was said:
The timing by Reckless will infuriate many Tories and I'd expect to see a Newark type kitchen-sink thrown at him... I've never been a blue-activist but it's certainly got my blood boiling and tempts me to go and help the blues in some way.ThomasNashe said:I think the value is on the Tories. They're going to fight very hard for this one. There will be a large anti-Reckless vote, and his best chance/hope will be if it's split between Lab and Con, but I think there'll be a markedly differential level of effort. Labour didn't seem to bother at all in Newark, and I suggest it'll be the same story here.
It may help in some ways, lose Clacton was seemingly inevitable despite my irrational support of Rev Oswald but if they can then take out Reckless in November that MIGHT draw a line until the election.....
Trying to look for a positive - not that easy though....0 -
If they leave the Westminster party they could surge. And really surge. Scotland is not a naturally left wing country in my opinion.SeanT said:
I specifically avoided the word "surge"!! hah.Smarmeron said:@SeanT
An orgasmic surge of "toryism"? I wouldn't bet the house on it, but an uptick is likely.
However a quadrupling of their seats could easily be described as a surge. That is to say, I can see them getting 4 or 5 seats on a good day. Nothing world-shaking, but a definite revival, and all helpful to the cause in what could be a tight election, especially if Labour are going to LOSE 10-15 seats north of the Border, which seems quite possible.
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@Blueberry The how did The Mirror get the pictures aspect is interesting. What are the odds of finding a Government minister willing to post photos in his pyjamas to a complete stranger, must be akin to Scottish panda pregnancies.
There might be more in this story, than meets the eye.0 -
I'm surprised the 'journalist' did not send a message saying: "hey, I'd love to meet you at conference, but I just need £400 for the train ticket and hotel bills..."Blueberry said:
I agree - it's a honey trap. The Mirror should come clean about whose photos they used to get Newmark to send photos of himself. Did they hire a model for that specific purpose? Or did they just take them from the internet? And this stuff about Newmark initiating the exchange... unbelievably unlucky for him that the 'woman' just happens to be a male Mirror journalist who's up for sending nude pictures of herself. It's totally unethical.MikeK said:Good Morning.
As much as I was amused about Brooks Newmarks troubles, the way The Mirror sprung that trap was, I feel, criminal in it's intent.
Rupert Myers @RupertMyers 28m
The Mirror's creepy tactics against Brooks Newmark are shameful. Whoever thought this up is no journalist http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/brooks-newmark-resignation#4y20v3 …
There's many innocent dupes who've been conned out of tens of thousands by such scams, usually involving plane fares. There's an American ex-soldier whose photo has been used (without his knowledge) by scammers trying to befriend ladies.
On another note, it's a tactic used by groomers on t'Internet as well: grown men posing as young girls or boys to attract friendship for dubious reasons from other young boys and girls.
The Mirror's trodden a narrow line here, and it feels as icky as hell. If it turns out the lady's photo was used without her permission, then they've gone well over that line.
But most of my sympathy goes for Newmark's family.0 -
UKIP should win this one but Reckless doesn't have Carswell's cross-party appeal, so Lab and Con need to fight it out for second place to position themselves to scoop up centrist tactical support in 2015. That means they need to talk their chances up now even if they don't seriously expect to win - or if in Labour's case as Artist says they don't even want to win it.0
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So should the SCons, if they haven't already. A certain level of party devolution is going to be a must, to allow UK-wide parties (excepting NI, or course, but you know what I mean) to compete effectively in Scotland against the SNP.Scott_P said:@LabourList: Scottish Labour plans to wrest control of Westminster selections from NEC http://t.co/Yv2GjzL8JF
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Hello malcolm - hope you had a good holiday!malcolmg said:
It will not be to the Tories , that is for sure. Their leader is crap , now being interviewed by police for knowing postal votes early. Tories still toxic, Labour and LD's hated and Support for non BT parties exploding.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
Got a link for "Davidson being interviewed by the police"?
Wouldn't want to get OGH in trouble......0 -
Stuck some tweets into the thread header, including William Hill odds0
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It sounds as if it was going on for some months, with the 'lady' contacting several MPs. You can imagine conversations going on for some time, until the fateful tweet is sent from one of them.dr_spyn said:@Blueberry The how did The Mirror get the pictures aspect is interesting. What are the odds of finding a Government minister willing to post photos in his pyjamas to a complete stranger, must be akin to Scottish panda pregnancies.
There might be more in this story, than meets the eye.
It's yet another example of Cameron's adage being correct: too many tweets making a tw@t.0 -
Did $newmark initiate it though?Blueberry said:
I agree - it's a honey trap. The Mirror should come clean about whose photos they used to get Newmark to send photos of himself. Did they hire a model for that specific purpose? Or did they just take them from the internet? And this stuff about Newmark initiating the exchange... unbelievably unlucky for him that the 'woman' just happens to be a male Mirror journalist who's up for sending nude pictures of herself. It's totally unethical.MikeK said:Good Morning.
As much as I was amused about Brooks Newmarks troubles, the way The Mirror sprung that trap was, I feel, criminal in it's intent.
Rupert Myers @RupertMyers 28m
The Mirror's creepy tactics against Brooks Newmark are shameful. Whoever thought this up is no journalist http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/brooks-newmark-resignation#4y20v3 …
Buzzfeed says that "she" was floating around trying to flirt with multiple Tory MPs and he was just the numpty that responded0 -
Carlotta, very nice thanks, lots of sun and refreshment. Will have a look for link. I saw it on this tweetCarlottaVance said:
Hello malcolm - hope you had a good holiday!malcolmg said:
It will not be to the Tories , that is for sure. Their leader is crap , now being interviewed by police for knowing postal votes early. Tories still toxic, Labour and LD's hated and Support for non BT parties exploding.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
Got a link for "Davidson being interviewed by the police"?
Wouldn't want to get OGH in trouble......
Katie @KatieEwen123 · 12h
So Ruth Davidson is to be questioned "under caution" by police regarding claims that sample postal votes were counted by BT
Believe it is to find out where info came from , she said on TV that postal votes were heavily to NO, gave numbers etc and it was reported to police who are investigating.0 -
Whilst the SNP currently practice it they have the freedom to decide what is an "English only" bill/vote. I suspect you could frame the polling questions to make the Scottish population well against EV4EL.CarlottaVance said:
Look at the polls - the Scots see it as a question of fairness and it's something the SNP does already - where's the issue (apart from Labour parliamentary arithmetic)?DecrepitJohnL said:
Why? Because of the anti-Scots tone that accompanies it. Look back over the post-indyref threads.CarlottaVance said:
Why? The polling suggests the Scots are quite relaxed about EVEL - indeed, the SNP have long practiced it.DecrepitJohnL said:
I'd be surprised if the official CCHQ word has not gone out to STFU about EV4EL and anything else that might reinforce the bairn-eating-Tories meme.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
It's Labour who don't like EVEL, for reasons to obvious to mention....0 -
She must be really stupid if she said it ! A moron , in fact !malcolmg said:
Carlotta, very nice thanks, lots of sun and refreshment. Will have a look for link. I saw it on this tweetCarlottaVance said:
Hello malcolm - hope you had a good holiday!malcolmg said:
It will not be to the Tories , that is for sure. Their leader is crap , now being interviewed by police for knowing postal votes early. Tories still toxic, Labour and LD's hated and Support for non BT parties exploding.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
Got a link for "Davidson being interviewed by the police"?
Wouldn't want to get OGH in trouble......
Katie @KatieEwen123 · 12h
So Ruth Davidson is to be questioned "under caution" by police regarding claims that sample postal votes were counted by BT
Believe it is to find out where info came from , she said on TV that postal votes were heavily to NO, gave numbers etc and it was reported to police who are investigating.0 -
Reckless coming up on BBCSP.
Much of the stuff about Newmark flashing his nethers seems to be ignoring the fact that he was trying to arrange a 'meeting' during the conference. I'm not happy about stings like this but I wish for (almost) once a publicly cuckolded politico wife would tell her husband to sling his hook.0 -
Everything in Rochester depends on the CON candidate choice. The blues need someone who can appeal to LAN and LD cross-overs - not a Mark Reckless lookalike.0
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0
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Lots of stuff here on it:malcolmg said:
Carlotta, very nice thanks, lots of sun and refreshment. Will have a look for link. I saw it on this tweetCarlottaVance said:
Hello malcolm - hope you had a good holiday!malcolmg said:
It will not be to the Tories , that is for sure. Their leader is crap , now being interviewed by police for knowing postal votes early. Tories still toxic, Labour and LD's hated and Support for non BT parties exploding.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
Got a link for "Davidson being interviewed by the police"?
Wouldn't want to get OGH in trouble......
Katie @KatieEwen123 · 12h
So Ruth Davidson is to be questioned "under caution" by police regarding claims that sample postal votes were counted by BT
Believe it is to find out where info came from , she said on TV that postal votes were heavily to NO, gave numbers etc and it was reported to police who are investigating.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=ruth+davidson+postal+&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&gfe_rd=cr&ei=Y9onVLawHMaq8weGzIDYAg#q=ruth+davidson+postal&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&tbm=nws0 -
Link here? http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/crown-office-to-probe-postal-vote-claims.25440050malcolmg said:
Carlotta, very nice thanks, lots of sun and refreshment. Will have a look for link. I saw it on this tweetCarlottaVance said:
Hello malcolm - hope you had a good holiday!malcolmg said:
It will not be to the Tories , that is for sure. Their leader is crap , now being interviewed by police for knowing postal votes early. Tories still toxic, Labour and LD's hated and Support for non BT parties exploding.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
Got a link for "Davidson being interviewed by the police"?
Wouldn't want to get OGH in trouble......
Katie @KatieEwen123 · 12h
So Ruth Davidson is to be questioned "under caution" by police regarding claims that sample postal votes were counted by BT
Believe it is to find out where info came from , she said on TV that postal votes were heavily to NO, gave numbers etc and it was reported to police who are investigating.
And morning Malcolm.0 -
Hurst , Thank youHurstLlama said:@MalcolmG
Morning Mr. G., good to see you back and pleased to read that you had a nice holiday.0 -
It seems to be legal to block you, provided gambling laws "meet the objectives of consumer protection and the prevention of both fraud and incitement to squander money on gambling, as well as the need to preserve public order". We can't have you running amok through Spain disrupting public order by laying UKIP with Shadsy.MikeSmithson said:I'm in Spain where I'm blocked from getting into my Ladbrokes account. I though this was supposed to be the open market?
http://euobserver.com/justice/30213
Apparently Betfair and Ladbrokes want the laws harmonized by the EU, and the Commission has had some success in getting member states to open up their local monopolies, but it might be worth calling your MP and suggesting he do more to push for faster progress.0 -
The idea that the English getting devolution is somehow unfair to the Scots is incredibly stupid. If fairness to the English gets scrapped just for the sake of better appearances in Scotland, it would be truly appalling.DecrepitJohnL said:
I'd be surprised if the official CCHQ word has not gone out to STFU about EV4EL and anything else that might reinforce the bairn-eating-Tories meme.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.0 -
I think the Scottish seats in the next election will be a surprise to some. Clearly the SNP are eating into the Labour vote for much the same reason as UKIP are south of the border.
However most SNP seats are in what was originally Tory territory. Places like Perth and Angus. With the tories in the doldrums, people there seem to have tactically voted SNP to keep Labour out. However after the antics of the referendum I don't think that will be happening again.
Similarly the Liberal seats are also rural and often ex tory historically.
Going seat by seat, these are the seats that could go tory
Aberdeen South: Tories 7,000 behind SNP. However Libdems got 12,000 votes.
Angus: Tories 3,200 behind SNP
Argyll and Bute: Tories 3,500 behind LD
Banff and Buchan: Tories 4,000 behind SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Tories 5,800 behind LD
Edinburgh West: Tories 5,900 behind LD
Moray: Tories 5,800 behind SNP
Perth and North Perthshire: Tories 4,300 behind SNP.
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine: Tories 3,600 behind LD
Add in the fact that the demographics make it inevitable that about 20 LD seats at places like Eastbourne, Lewes, Mid Dorset, Someton and Frome, Taunton, North Norfolk, you could get a situation where:
Labour win 30 tory (20) and Liberal Seats (10) but lose 10 seats to SNP in Scotland, gain one from green, lose one to Respect. Net gain 20 = 278 seats
Tory win 30 seats of libs and SNP but lose 20 seats to Labour and 10 to UKIP = 306 seats (no change)
Lib lose 25 to tory, 10 to labour and 5 to SNP. = 17 seats
SNP = lose 5 to tory gain 10 from labour and 5 from LD = 16 seats
UKIP = 10 seats
DUP = 8 Seats
SF = 5
PC = 3
SDLP = 3
Alliance = 1
Speaker = 1
Sylvia Hernon = 1
Respect = 1
Total number of seats = 650. Real number of Seats = 644 as Speaker and SF do not vote.
Therefore 322 needed for Majority rather than 326.
306 tory + 10 UKIP + 8 DUP + Sylvia Hernon = 325
If Tories depose Bercow and elect a speaker from another party = 326
= Tory minority government with supply and confidence from above until another election in about 18 months, possibly longer as the left is so fragmented over 7 parties (8 including SF)
0 -
Why should Lab and LD give a stuff whether it's Tory or Ukip? I really cannot understand those tempted to vote tactically for the Tories. Ukip may be worse but they're in a position to do precisely nothing.MikeSmithson said:Everything in Rochester depends on the CON candidate choice. The blues need someone who can appeal to LAN and LD cross-overs - not a Mark Reckless lookalike.
0 -
I wonder if they had other profiles doing similar things to MPs in other parties. Although the Mirror is particularly anti-Tory...JosiasJessop said:
It sounds as if it was going on for some months, with the 'lady' contacting several MPs. You can imagine conversations going on for some time, until the fateful tweet is sent from one of them.dr_spyn said:@Blueberry The how did The Mirror get the pictures aspect is interesting. What are the odds of finding a Government minister willing to post photos in his pyjamas to a complete stranger, must be akin to Scottish panda pregnancies.
There might be more in this story, than meets the eye.
It's yet another example of Cameron's adage being correct: too many tweets making a tw@t.0 -
If the Conservative Party wishes to regain the two dozen Scottish seats it held while Mrs Thatcher was Prime Minister, then it needs to avoid repelling Scottish voters, whatever the merits or otherwise of this or any other issue. To get elected, you need to people to vote for you.CarlottaVance said:
Look at the polls - the Scots see it as a question of fairness and it's something the SNP does already - where's the issue (apart from Labour parliamentary arithmetic)?DecrepitJohnL said:
Why? Because of the anti-Scots tone that accompanies it. Look back over the post-indyref threads.CarlottaVance said:
Why? The polling suggests the Scots are quite relaxed about EVEL - indeed, the SNP have long practiced it.DecrepitJohnL said:
I'd be surprised if the official CCHQ word has not gone out to STFU about EV4EL and anything else that might reinforce the bairn-eating-Tories meme.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
It's Labour who don't like EVEL, for reasons to obvious to mention....0 -
Off for a walk in the sun - how long can this good weather last? And then a nice long look at the Ryder Cup finale and Sunday Politics.0
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Paul_Mid_Beds said:
I think the Scottish seats in the next election will be a surprise to some. Clearly the SNP are eating into the Labour vote for much the same reason as UKIP are south of the border.
However most SNP seats are in what was originally Tory territory. Places like Perth and Angus. With the tories in the doldrums, people there seem to have tactically voted SNP to keep Labour out. However after the antics of the referendum I don't think that will be happening again.
Similarly the Liberal seats are also rural and often ex tory historically.
Going seat by seat, these are the seats that could go tory
Aberdeen South: Tories 7,000 behind SNP. However Libdems got 12,000 votes.
Angus: Tories 3,200 behind SNP
Argyll and Bute: Tories 3,500 behind LD
Banff and Buchan: Tories 4,000 behind SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Tories 5,800 behind LD
Edinburgh West: Tories 5,900 behind LD
Moray: Tories 5,800 behind SNP
Perth and North Perthshire: Tories 4,300 behind SNP.
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine: Tories 3,600 behind LD
Add in the fact that the demographics make it inevitable that about 20 LD seats at places like Eastbourne, Lewes, Mid Dorset, Someton and Frome, Taunton, North Norfolk, you could get a situation where:
Labour win 30 tory (20) and Liberal Seats (10) but lose 10 seats to SNP in Scotland, gain one from green, lose one to Respect. Net gain 20 = 278 seats
Tory win 30 seats of libs and SNP but lose 20 seats to Labour and 10 to UKIP = 306 seats (no change)
Lib lose 25 to tory, 10 to labour and 5 to SNP. = 17 seats
SNP = lose 5 to tory gain 10 from labour and 5 from LD = 16 seats
UKIP = 10 seats
DUP = 8 Seats
SF = 5
PC = 3
SDLP = 3
Alliance = 1
Speaker = 1
Sylvia Hernon = 1
Respect = 1
Total number of seats = 650. Real number of Seats = 644 as Speaker and SF do not vote.
Therefore 322 needed for Majority rather than 326.
306 tory + 10 UKIP + 8 DUP + Sylvia Hernon = 325
If Tories depose Bercow and elect a speaker from another party = 326
= Tory minority government with supply and confidence from above until another election in about 18 months, possibly longer as the left is so fragmented over 7 parties (8 including SF)
I was reading your post until UKIP = 10. Then I filed it under "Fiction"0 -
Thanks:Carola said:
Link here? http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/crown-office-to-probe-postal-vote-claims.25440050malcolmg said:
Carlotta, very nice thanks, lots of sun and refreshment. Will have a look for link. I saw it on this tweetCarlottaVance said:
Hello malcolm - hope you had a good holiday!malcolmg said:
It will not be to the Tories , that is for sure. Their leader is crap , now being interviewed by police for knowing postal votes early. Tories still toxic, Labour and LD's hated and Support for non BT parties exploding.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
Got a link for "Davidson being interviewed by the police"?
Wouldn't want to get OGH in trouble......
Katie @KatieEwen123 · 12h
So Ruth Davidson is to be questioned "under caution" by police regarding claims that sample postal votes were counted by BT
Believe it is to find out where info came from , she said on TV that postal votes were heavily to NO, gave numbers etc and it was reported to police who are investigating.
And morning Malcolm.
It is expected that Ms Davidson will be spoken to about her TV statement.
Not quite 'interviewed under caution by the police'.......
0 -
No doubt the Mirror are pleased to take attention away from their admitted guilt in hacking. its a mystery why we do not have Mirror editors in jail rather than trying to sting MPs.JosiasJessop said:
It sounds as if it was going on for some months, with the 'lady' contacting several MPs. You can imagine conversations going on for some time, until the fateful tweet is sent from one of them.dr_spyn said:@Blueberry The how did The Mirror get the pictures aspect is interesting. What are the odds of finding a Government minister willing to post photos in his pyjamas to a complete stranger, must be akin to Scottish panda pregnancies.
There might be more in this story, than meets the eye.
It's yet another example of Cameron's adage being correct: too many tweets making a tw@t.
But this is the press which sees itself aboove the law and demand the right to police themselves.0 -
PS If the Commission were to try harmonize gambling laws with the goal of allowing OGH to use Betfair from Spain without a proxy server, would this require a referendum under the Referendum Lock? Because that would make for some awesome meta-betting markets.0
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Conversation on this site may lead you to think that only Tory establishment types hate UKIP, but actually there's a perception among quite a lot of people that they're BNP-lite.FrankBooth said:
Why should Lab and LD give a stuff whether it's Tory or Ukip? I really cannot understand those tempted to vote tactically for the Tories. Ukip may be worse but they're in a position to do precisely nothing.MikeSmithson said:Everything in Rochester depends on the CON candidate choice. The blues need someone who can appeal to LAN and LD cross-overs - not a Mark Reckless lookalike.
0 -
Mr. K, the weather's unseasonably warm.0
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malcolmg, not sure where you went for your holidays (and I can understand why you might have timed it as you did!) but you missed some superb weather in the Outer Hebs - Barra was positively Mediterranean!0
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Where is the evidence that Scottish voters are opposed to EVEL?DecrepitJohnL said:
If the Conservative Party wishes to regain the two dozen Scottish seats it held while Mrs Thatcher was Prime Minister, then it needs to avoid repelling Scottish votersCarlottaVance said:
Look at the polls - the Scots see it as a question of fairness and it's something the SNP does already - where's the issue (apart from Labour parliamentary arithmetic)?DecrepitJohnL said:
Why? Because of the anti-Scots tone that accompanies it. Look back over the post-indyref threads.CarlottaVance said:
Why? The polling suggests the Scots are quite relaxed about EVEL - indeed, the SNP have long practiced it.DecrepitJohnL said:
I'd be surprised if the official CCHQ word has not gone out to STFU about EV4EL and anything else that might reinforce the bairn-eating-Tories meme.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
It's Labour who don't like EVEL, for reasons to obvious to mention....
The polling says the opposite.
The last time the Tories had two dozen MPs in Scotland was in 1964......
0 -
Only among dyed-in-the-wool lefties.Stereotomy said:
Conversation on this site may lead you to think that only Tory establishment types hate UKIP, but actually there's a perception among quite a lot of people that they're BNP-lite.FrankBooth said:
Why should Lab and LD give a stuff whether it's Tory or Ukip? I really cannot understand those tempted to vote tactically for the Tories. Ukip may be worse but they're in a position to do precisely nothing.MikeSmithson said:Everything in Rochester depends on the CON candidate choice. The blues need someone who can appeal to LAN and LD cross-overs - not a Mark Reckless lookalike.
0 -
The wording used by Ruth Davidson is surprising and unwise but I posted on here several times that BT were doing extremely well on postal votes. My canvassing showed we were getting a very significant majority.
In my opinion this was for a number of reasons. Firstly, by far the largest users of postal votes were the old who voted overwhelmingly no. Secondly, I think Yes supporters were much more minded to vote on what they believed was going to be an historic day than merely popping something in the post a week or so beforehand.
So I would be astonished if Ruth Davidson did not have canvassing information both from personal visits and even more so from telephone calls indicating a strong no turnout in the postal votes. The idea that anyone had access to the actual ballots is incredibly far fetched.0 -
Anyone know if the Opinium tables have been released? And will his Lordship release His tables at 2pm then?
0 -
In fact, they hate UKIP more. Many PBTories would not mind if the Tory party did have the same policies as UKIP.Stereotomy said:
Conversation on this site may lead you to think that only Tory establishment types hate UKIP, but actually there's a perception among quite a lot of people that they're BNP-lite.FrankBooth said:
Why should Lab and LD give a stuff whether it's Tory or Ukip? I really cannot understand those tempted to vote tactically for the Tories. Ukip may be worse but they're in a position to do precisely nothing.MikeSmithson said:Everything in Rochester depends on the CON candidate choice. The blues need someone who can appeal to LAN and LD cross-overs - not a Mark Reckless lookalike.
0 -
So you argument is that they should not provide fairness to the English, because even though it doesn't disadvantage the Scots, the appearance of it might look bad? That's a terrible approach to governance.DecrepitJohnL said:
If the Conservative Party wishes to regain the two dozen Scottish seats it held while Mrs Thatcher was Prime Minister, then it needs to avoid repelling Scottish voters, whatever the merits or otherwise of this or any other issue. To get elected, you need to people to vote for you.CarlottaVance said:
Look at the polls - the Scots see it as a question of fairness and it's something the SNP does already - where's the issue (apart from Labour parliamentary arithmetic)?DecrepitJohnL said:
Why? Because of the anti-Scots tone that accompanies it. Look back over the post-indyref threads.CarlottaVance said:
Why? The polling suggests the Scots are quite relaxed about EVEL - indeed, the SNP have long practiced it.DecrepitJohnL said:
I'd be surprised if the official CCHQ word has not gone out to STFU about EV4EL and anything else that might reinforce the bairn-eating-Tories meme.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
It's Labour who don't like EVEL, for reasons to obvious to mention....0 -
What is ELBOW saying ? A huge swing to Labour after Miliband fluffed his lines ?Sunil_Prasannan said:Anyone know if the Opinium tables have been released? And will his Lordship release His tables at 2pm then?
0 -
Good morning CarolaCarola said:
Link here? http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/crown-office-to-probe-postal-vote-claims.25440050malcolmg said:
Carlotta, very nice thanks, lots of sun and refreshment. Will have a look for link. I saw it on this tweetCarlottaVance said:
Hello malcolm - hope you had a good holiday!malcolmg said:
It will not be to the Tories , that is for sure. Their leader is crap , now being interviewed by police for knowing postal votes early. Tories still toxic, Labour and LD's hated and Support for non BT parties exploding.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
Got a link for "Davidson being interviewed by the police"?
Wouldn't want to get OGH in trouble......
Katie @KatieEwen123 · 12h
So Ruth Davidson is to be questioned "under caution" by police regarding claims that sample postal votes were counted by BT
Believe it is to find out where info came from , she said on TV that postal votes were heavily to NO, gave numbers etc and it was reported to police who are investigating.
And morning Malcolm.0 -
It's not really being mentioned but the Lib Dems are currently level with the Greens on YouGov. How much longer can this go on. That amounts to nearly 3/4 of their 2010 vote disappearing. Do they just not care?0
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Now try running a campaign without some idiot mouthing anti-Scottish sentiments that will be helpfully fed to the Scottish papers by the SNP, LibDems and SLAB.CarlottaVance said:
Where is the evidence that Scottish voters are opposed to EVEL?DecrepitJohnL said:
If the Conservative Party wishes to regain the two dozen Scottish seats it held while Mrs Thatcher was Prime Minister, then it needs to avoid repelling Scottish votersCarlottaVance said:
Look at the polls - the Scots see it as a question of fairness and it's something the SNP does already - where's the issue (apart from Labour parliamentary arithmetic)?DecrepitJohnL said:
Why? Because of the anti-Scots tone that accompanies it. Look back over the post-indyref threads.CarlottaVance said:
Why? The polling suggests the Scots are quite relaxed about EVEL - indeed, the SNP have long practiced it.DecrepitJohnL said:
I'd be surprised if the official CCHQ word has not gone out to STFU about EV4EL and anything else that might reinforce the bairn-eating-Tories meme.SeanT said:What are the chances of a Tory revival in Scotland?
Better than negligible, surely.
They have a personable leader, widely admired, who performed well in indyref. Labour do not.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are dead. The SNP, post-no, is surging (as some of us, ahem, predicted) - but their new leader is definitely to the left of the previous guy. The SNP will take seats from Labour in places like Glasgow... Leaving room for rural, middle class and rightwing No voters to go... Where?
If the Scots Tories are ever going to revive, now is the time. I can see them snatching a few seats.
It's Labour who don't like EVEL, for reasons to obvious to mention....
The polling says the opposite.
The last time the Tories had two dozen MPs in Scotland was in 1964......
And under Mrs Thatcher, in 1979 the Conservatives won 22 Scottish seats, and 21 in 1983. Or in round numbers, two dozen.0 -
I wouldn't be surprised if the agents attending postal votes openings informed her of what they have seen. I believe you can have an idea of what is going on even if the ballots are opened faced down, especially in this case where they are only 2 options (so you can spot easily where the cross is. In a ballot with 10 candidates it is more difficult to get a clear idea from a faced down ballott if your candidate is not at the top or at the bottom).
I think all parties try to sample it. It is apparently not allowed to report what you have seen at the postal voting opening but I doubt they don't really report it to central offices.DavidL said:The wording used by Ruth Davidson is surprising and unwise but I posted on here several times that BT were doing extremely well on postal votes. My canvassing showed we were getting a very significant majority.
In my opinion this was for a number of reasons. Firstly, by far the largest users of postal votes were the old who voted overwhelmingly no. Secondly, I think Yes supporters were much more minded to vote on what they believed was going to be an historic day than merely popping something in the post a week or so beforehand.
So I would be astonished if Ruth Davidson did not have canvassing information both from personal visits and even more so from telephone calls indicating a strong no turnout in the postal votes. The idea that anyone had access to the actual ballots is incredibly far fetched.0 -
Reckless coped well with bruiser Neil I thought.0
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Clearly the much vaunted healing process hasn't exactly got underway yet.DavidL said:The wording used by Ruth Davidson is surprising and unwise but I posted on here several times that BT were doing extremely well on postal votes. My canvassing showed we were getting a very significant majority.
In my opinion this was for a number of reasons. Firstly, by far the largest users of postal votes were the old who voted overwhelmingly no. Secondly, I think Yes supporters were much more minded to vote on what they believed was going to be an historic day than merely popping something in the post a week or so beforehand.
So I would be astonished if Ruth Davidson did not have canvassing information both from personal visits and even more so from telephone calls indicating a strong no turnout in the postal votes. The idea that anyone had access to the actual ballots is incredibly far fetched.0 -
Mark, bit further afield , we were in the hills near Malaga, daughter's birthday , so we had booked a ranch ( they have 2 apartments ) where she could go riding. Was very nice indeed, stunning scenery , pool , etc.MarqueeMark said:malcolmg, not sure where you went for your holidays (and I can understand why you might have timed it as you did!) but you missed some superb weather in the Outer Hebs - Barra was positively Mediterranean!
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