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The Cost of Lizzing Crisis [1] – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,963
    Nigelb said:

    Haven't fully caught up yet, but am enjoying the mental whiplash on manifestos.

    When discussing PR and coalitions - the fact that we supposedly vote according to manifestos is crucial, compromise and coalitions damage the very fabric of our political system.

    When discussing a majority party making huge changes mid-term - the fact that we supposedly vote according to manifestos is irrelevant, they have no hold on a Government that can call upon a majority in the House of Commons under our political system.

    Fun.

    My personal take is the same for both: politicians elected as our representatives can compromise (with each other, with reality, and/or with ideology) as much as they like. But they will have to face the electorate afterwards, who will pass judgement on what compromises they decided to make.

    And politicians know this, and this will influence the House of Commons as a whole, and if it doesn't, they will face the electorate in due time. As did the Lib Dems after compromising away their tuition fees stance.

    This is why certain forms of PR - those which advocate party lists - are so pernicious. The result is that some MPs know they will get re-elected almost no matter what. Obviously there are a number of systems that don't work this way but anything that gives more power to the parties should be avoided.
    I still think the Danish option of unweighted lists is a happy compromise - yes, you have a party list, but you choose a specific person on it, and if party X gets N seats, they go to the N candidates with the most personal votes on the list. This encourages parties to seek diversity instead of robotic loyalty - for example, the Tories could have a list with Truss and Sunak and Gove and various other flavours, and if you like the Tories in general but want to avoid certain types of them, you can do exactly that. The party benefits by attracting a variety of support.

    It is also possible to simply vote for the party. Some Danish parties allocate such votes to the people at the top of the list, which does boost the power of the party to reward loyalty. Essentially the voter is saying "I like the Tories and delegate to them which individuals get seats". But others simply ignore those votes in deciding who gets the seats, and that's the variant I like.
    Not for me I'm afraid. It still gives too much power to the parties. Any system that allows the parties to claim that votes were for them rather than for an individual is a retrograde step in my eyes. We should be reducing the influence and power of the party over democratic politics rather than increasing it.
    Most people vote for a party and potential PM so not a convincing argument against the Danish system. Curtailing party control a good objective I agree, the Danish approach might be a good pragmatic compromise. If large multi-member constituencies were part of the system that would give competition within a constituency in terms of dealing with issues for constituents.
    No most people THINK they are voting for a party when in fact they are not. They are voting for an individual representative. That is what we should reinforce rather than giving more power to parties which are a perversion of the democratic system.
    Parties are a feature of pretty well every democracy, and seem to be necessary to their organised functioning at the national level.
    I’m no fan of them, and instinctively shy away from attaching myself to one, but they are not a ‘perversion’, even if some of their manifestations can be.
    It's pretty obvious we need at least some way of loosely grouping interests together to establish some broad vision for a programme. It's just that we need the party machines to be much less powerful, and competitive electoral systems to prevent easy domination.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,978

    Cicero said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:


    Phillips P. OBrien
    @PhillipsPOBrien
    ·
    25m
    First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.

    https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien

    With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).

    The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,

    Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.

    So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
    IMO the big question facing Putin is the following: if he automagically 'wins' all of Ukraine today, how does he stop all the economic sanctions that are massively limiting his country's strength? The west won't just say: "Oh well, he's won, we'd better just lift everything!" as they well know Putin will do the same with your fair country and others.

    Russia has spent decades getting vast amount of treasure from oil and gas. They will now be seen around the world as a massively unreliable supplier, untrustworthy. They will sell oil and gas, but at nowhere near the quantities they did before, or on the favourable conditions. Europe will find alternative supplies and move towards other, hopefully greener, forms of supply.

    There is now no way that Russia ends this war stronger than it was before February this year. It will be a diminished country, in terms of its military, its world standing, and most importantly, the lives of its own citizens. A pariah.

    The only way out of this is to withdraw from Ukraine - at the very least to its pre-February borders - and admit defeat. Then, slowly over time, sanctions can be withdrawn. But I doubt Germany et al will be taking long-term energy contracts out with them, and western companies will be very hesitant to invest in the country.

    Continuing the escalation will only weaken Russia, as well as imperilling the world. And that's what worries me: as I've been saying for years, Putin is not interested in making Russia stronger. He is only interested in bringing us down to his level.
    In short: Yes to most of that. It will take a very long time for Russia´s neighbours not to fear and hate them, but with the scale of the economic and demographic collapse no beginning, the outlook is truly grim, even if they withdrew today. Even if sanctions were lifted, the de facto boycott will continue. Who wants anything to do with a bunch of murderers, torturers and rapists, who laugh when the threaten nuclear megadeath to the whole world?

    Russia will have to face the same moral regeneration as Germany after 1945, and that is a process that takes generations.
    I don't think Putin and his clique are in the same league of evil as Hitler and his clique.

    They're still pretty evil.

    It was very hard for Germany, simply because of how vile the Nazis were. But, it was also easier, because they were such an outlier. Germany, pre-Nazi, was a prosperous, law-abiding, civilised country, with strong civic institutions. Russia doesn't really have any of that. Russia has always been a kleptocracy, since the time of the Mongol invasions. Without the Mongols, Russia today would probably be Scandinavian.
    Part of the problem is that there has been no moral recovery from Stalin, who really was just as evil as Hitler.

    Instead of atoning for the crimes of Stalinism and Communism, Putin has mostly repeated those crimes. This is why I use the word "moral" crisis. There has been no truth and reconciliation, but instead a glorification of the KGB and other criminals. Unless this is ended, Russia can never recover. I have many Russophone friends who now refuse to engage with any Russian culture because whatever the glories of Bulgakov, Tshaikovsky etc, everything is overlaid with the continuing brutality of thugs like Stalin, Beria and indeed Putin. As one said, who cares about the ballet when they are rebuilding the GULAG? The collapse of Russian soft power is just as remarkable as any other part of this Russian disaster.
    The Soviet Union came out of WWII with a huge amount of international goodwill, which completely obscured the crimes of the 1930's. The onset of the Cold War diminished, but certainly did not destroy, that goodwill, particularly as the Soviets could claim to be anti-colonialists, and the West really did throw its weight behind some ghastly leaders in the Third World.

    Obviously, where you are based, and in Eastern Europe generally, people have never had warm feelings towards the Soviet Union, given the dreadful treatment they received at its hands. It's remarkable really, how little venegeance was taken against Soviet collaborators.
    The first paragraph is quite right; and it wasn't only goodwill earned by the Soviet union, but a recognition that governments in the 30s had made some horrendous mistakes.
    At least that's what many of the then older generation said.

    I'm not quite sure that the second paragraph is as correct as the first; there appears to be, or to have been, some amount of support among the older generation for the Communist regimes because they compared well, in many respects, with what had gone before.
    There was little residual support for communism in the immediate aftermath of the changes, but nostalgia grew with the disruptive changes that followed.

    I remember reading an account of the changes in Eastern Europe in the 90s and an observation that struck me was that, at some point during the transition to capitalist economies, it dawned on people that they were being ‘sorted’ into classes, not just them but likely their children and children’s children, moving from a state where, barring the tiny nomenclature, everyone had similar living standards to a western state with a ‘middle class’ who would perpetually have generally better access to everything than the ‘working class’.

    Not surprising that some on the losing side of the deal started to hanker for the lost ‘equality’ and ‘all in it together’ communitarianism, made easier with a bit of distance in the same way that many of us look back on objectively unpleasant experiences almost as if we had enjoyed them at the time.

    Well for every country, even including Russia, it did not take long for actual living standards to overtake the so-called equality of the Communist system.
    It took until about 2006 for average real wages in Russia to reach their 1990 level - and with a smaller population too.

    Except the 1) 1990 level was Soviet statistics and not accurate 2) in 1990 you could not buy very much anyway, because the choice of goods was minimal. Communism rationed goods by availability, not by price. So there is quite a bit of research that suggests that within 2-3 years actual living standards had improved sharply. That was my experience of that time too. it took quite a while for accurate statistics gathering to be set up, and much of the real economy raced ahead of the data gathering.

    Now Estonia has an average living standard that is pretty close to the UK, and a recorded GDP/cap in December ´21 at $38,207 that is very close indeed to the $45,839 of the UK. That could be lagging behind too.

  • Advent starts on the 27th of Nov. so I think it's admissable then.

    It does this year. That's the earliest it can start (because Christmas Day this year is on a Sunday). The latest it can start is 3rd December (in years when Christmas Day is a Monday).
  • Tres said:

    Oops….

    That isn’t me…
    @DailyMirror


    https://twitter.com/KwasiKwarteng/status/1576133060411523072

    Not a great start to “Black History Month”…

    I find the idea October is "Black History Month" is very odd. For me October is Halloween, in the same way as December is Christmas. Black and orange are the colours of October, but not that meaning of black.

    October is about witches, ghouls, skeletons, zombies, devils and so on . . . adding "black people" to that list seems more than a tad unfortunate.

    Just watched Hocus Pocus with the girls, it still holds up. Looking forward to watching Hocus Pocus 2 with them tonight.
    For me Halloween is the 31st and maybe the couple of days leading up to it, not the whole month.
    We enjoy Halloween for the whole month. Halloween movies whenever we watch a movie all month long, there's so many good ones you couldn't do them all in a day, and all the shops have Halloween stuff all month etc too. Plus other activities, we're going pumpkin picking later this month on a farm, then will be pumpkin carving after. The kids do Halloween activities at school, at Rainbows and Brownies. Oh and Pumpkin Spice Latte etc too.

    Halloween is a month long for us, not a day, any more than Christmas is just 25 December.
    When you explain it like that, it does seem terribly inconsiderate that black history should intrude so much into your whole month of focusing on made up childish nonsense.
    "Childish nonsense" - do you consider Christmas to be childish nonsense?

    In case you missed it, most of that stuff I named (apart from the latte) is for my children. So excuse me if activities aimed for children are childish. I suppose Christmas Grottos are made up childish nonsense to you too? 🙄

    December being linked with Christmas, and October with Halloween, is not a novel or new concept. It just strikes me as odd that black history isn't linked to a month without a strong connection to something else already.
    It was a simple pisstake of you getting the hump about black history being in focus for a whole month. That month being October, so enough of the misdirection about Christmas, please.

    And yes, I love Halloween and Christmas. Our kids used to compete to build grottos on Christmas morning and I very much enjoyed the childish nonsense that it was.
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,595

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tres said:

    Oops….

    That isn’t me…
    @DailyMirror


    https://twitter.com/KwasiKwarteng/status/1576133060411523072

    Not a great start to “Black History Month”…

    I find the idea October is "Black History Month" is very odd. For me October is Halloween, in the same way as December is Christmas. Black and orange are the colours of October, but not that meaning of black.

    October is about witches, ghouls, skeletons, zombies, devils and so on . . . adding "black people" to that list seems more than a tad unfortunate.

    Just watched Hocus Pocus with the girls, it still holds up. Looking forward to watching Hocus Pocus 2 with them tonight.
    For me Halloween is the 31st and maybe the couple of days leading up to it, not the whole month.
    We enjoy Halloween for the whole month. Halloween movies whenever we watch a movie all month long, there's so many good ones you couldn't do them all in a day, and all the shops have Halloween stuff all month etc too. Plus other activities, we're going pumpkin picking later this month on a farm, then will be pumpkin carving after. The kids do Halloween activities at school, at Rainbows and Brownies. Oh and Pumpkin Spice Latte etc too.

    Halloween is a month long for us, not a day, any more than Christmas is just 25 December.
    When you explain it like that, it does seem terribly inconsiderate that black history should intrude so much into your whole month of focusing on made up childish nonsense.
    "Childish nonsense" - do you consider Christmas to be childish nonsense?

    In case you missed it, most of that stuff I named (apart from the latte) is for my children. So excuse me if activities aimed for children are childish. I suppose Christmas Grottos are made up childish nonsense to you too? 🙄

    December being linked with Christmas, and October with Halloween, is not a novel or new concept. It just strikes me as odd that black history isn't linked to a month without a strong connection to something else already.
    Americans seem to love Halloween for some reason, not just the kids. Ten days back - so in deepest mid-September, a regular hotel I was at with entirely adult guests had decorated the hotel lift (elevator) with rubber spiders and rats and the like, as if this were normal behaviour. Which, here, it is.
    To me its weird to do in September, but then I think its weird to put up Christmas trees in November too.

    1 October/1 December is when decorations can go up.

    Americans certainly aren't so restrained, that's true.
    Advent starts on the 27th of Nov. so I think it's admissable then.
    I always go with mid December. That’s still three weeks altogether. Putting up your decorations weeks in advance is like wearing a poppy in October.
    I'm early Dec.
    Same here. Always glad to get the Xmas stuff out of the loft.

    I wouldn’t bother but my wife loves all that Kitsch stuff.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,726

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .deleted - old picture

    Those people do not consider Biden and the Democrats to be aligned with America's interests.
    Those people aren’t aligned with America’s interests.

    That's an opinion that cannot possibly be validated, as you know. You would have to define what America's interests were, whether the interests of the State and its people were the same thing, then whether the current geostrategic posture/domestic policy of the State was aligned with those interests. It's all subjective.
    It is a democracy.
    Supporting a fascist dictator in abolishing through military force an independent democratic nation of 44m people is not in its interests. Attacking aid to Ukraine which has passed both Houses of Congress by very large, bipartisan majorities is certainly acting against national interests.

    There nothing subjective about that - they are opposing their own government and constitution.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Turkey again saying they will block Sweden’s NATO application.
  • Tres said:

    Oops….

    That isn’t me…
    @DailyMirror


    https://twitter.com/KwasiKwarteng/status/1576133060411523072

    Not a great start to “Black History Month”…

    I find the idea October is "Black History Month" is very odd. For me October is Halloween, in the same way as December is Christmas. Black and orange are the colours of October, but not that meaning of black.

    October is about witches, ghouls, skeletons, zombies, devils and so on . . . adding "black people" to that list seems more than a tad unfortunate.

    Just watched Hocus Pocus with the girls, it still holds up. Looking forward to watching Hocus Pocus 2 with them tonight.
    For me Halloween is the 31st and maybe the couple of days leading up to it, not the whole month.
    We enjoy Halloween for the whole month. Halloween movies whenever we watch a movie all month long, there's so many good ones you couldn't do them all in a day, and all the shops have Halloween stuff all month etc too. Plus other activities, we're going pumpkin picking later this month on a farm, then will be pumpkin carving after. The kids do Halloween activities at school, at Rainbows and Brownies. Oh and Pumpkin Spice Latte etc too.

    Halloween is a month long for us, not a day, any more than Christmas is just 25 December.
    yes ,as a family we made a big thing of halloween as both myself and my daughter are on the gothic side - Autumn is our favourite season by far and thinking of the "dark" side of life in a fun and community way is good imo once in a while - It is more a spiritual thing for us and whilst we are not (or was - daughter is now a balanced adult!) the Adams Family we do feel it more of a deeper and soulful exercise than say Christmas which is pure materialism and too sentimental in a shallow way for my taste. I do like you make it last from the 1st October and do serious stuff mixed in with fun - It will cumulate in a fun halloween murder mystery this year at chez state go away where guests take on a role - Dracula ,Bride of Dracula,Frankinstein, Curella De Ville ,Morticia ,Gomez ,Wicked Witch , Poison Ivy etc and I serve a suitable meal and we wok out who "did it"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,355
    A lot of the time, you get a read on how a party is feeling by what they *don't* do.

    MPs have been instructed by Downing St to share and champion graphics on the mini-budget, focussing on the energy price policy.

    How many have done that? Trouble.


    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1576200935579189249
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,355
    The lack of Treasury experience in the most senior positions is one notable element of the current situ.

    Perm sec: (empty)
    Second perm sec: (empty)
    Chancellor: 25 days
    Chief Sec: 25 days
    Finance Sec: 23 days

    So in five of the top Treasury jobs… **73 days** experience total.


    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1576190729918947328
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,415
    Nigelb said:

    Haven't fully caught up yet, but am enjoying the mental whiplash on manifestos.

    When discussing PR and coalitions - the fact that we supposedly vote according to manifestos is crucial, compromise and coalitions damage the very fabric of our political system.

    When discussing a majority party making huge changes mid-term - the fact that we supposedly vote according to manifestos is irrelevant, they have no hold on a Government that can call upon a majority in the House of Commons under our political system.

    Fun.

    My personal take is the same for both: politicians elected as our representatives can compromise (with each other, with reality, and/or with ideology) as much as they like. But they will have to face the electorate afterwards, who will pass judgement on what compromises they decided to make.

    And politicians know this, and this will influence the House of Commons as a whole, and if it doesn't, they will face the electorate in due time. As did the Lib Dems after compromising away their tuition fees stance.

    This is why certain forms of PR - those which advocate party lists - are so pernicious. The result is that some MPs know they will get re-elected almost no matter what. Obviously there are a number of systems that don't work this way but anything that gives more power to the parties should be avoided.
    I still think the Danish option of unweighted lists is a happy compromise - yes, you have a party list, but you choose a specific person on it, and if party X gets N seats, they go to the N candidates with the most personal votes on the list. This encourages parties to seek diversity instead of robotic loyalty - for example, the Tories could have a list with Truss and Sunak and Gove and various other flavours, and if you like the Tories in general but want to avoid certain types of them, you can do exactly that. The party benefits by attracting a variety of support.

    It is also possible to simply vote for the party. Some Danish parties allocate such votes to the people at the top of the list, which does boost the power of the party to reward loyalty. Essentially the voter is saying "I like the Tories and delegate to them which individuals get seats". But others simply ignore those votes in deciding who gets the seats, and that's the variant I like.
    Not for me I'm afraid. It still gives too much power to the parties. Any system that allows the parties to claim that votes were for them rather than for an individual is a retrograde step in my eyes. We should be reducing the influence and power of the party over democratic politics rather than increasing it.
    Most people vote for a party and potential PM so not a convincing argument against the Danish system. Curtailing party control a good objective I agree, the Danish approach might be a good pragmatic compromise. If large multi-member constituencies were part of the system that would give competition within a constituency in terms of dealing with issues for constituents.
    No most people THINK they are voting for a party when in fact they are not. They are voting for an individual representative. That is what we should reinforce rather than giving more power to parties which are a perversion of the democratic system.
    Parties are a feature of pretty well every democracy, and seem to be necessary to their organised functioning at the national level.
    I’m no fan of them, and instinctively shy away from attaching myself to one, but they are not a ‘perversion’, even if some of their manifestations can be.
    What about introducing the secret ballot? In Parliament…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,599

    Turkey again saying they will block Sweden’s NATO application.

    He has actually said that he will not approve it until they have enacted all the conditions he agreed to.

    Which, since they are in the process of enacting most of them, including lifting their arms embargo as of last night, seems to be mostly posturing for his domestic audience.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,522
    F1: entertaining qualifying session.

    Relatively pleased with the 23 on Perez each way to win (mentioned some while ago).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,552
    Watching this continual series of CNN reporters standing in the sunshine talking about damage that took place days ago, while outside it is merely raining, is becoming tiresome. Let’s take the dog for a walk and see if I can find somewhere for a second breakfast…
  • Scott_xP said:

    The lack of Treasury experience in the most senior positions is one notable element of the current situ.

    Perm sec: (empty)
    Second perm sec: (empty)
    Chancellor: 25 days
    Chief Sec: 25 days
    Finance Sec: 23 days

    So in five of the top Treasury jobs… **73 days** experience total.


    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1576190729918947328

    Minimum requirement for cabinet level posts should be 3 years experience as either junior minister or select committee in relevant departments only. Stop plonking MPs who have no knowledge of an area into the most important roles in the country.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Tres said:

    Oops….

    That isn’t me…
    @DailyMirror


    https://twitter.com/KwasiKwarteng/status/1576133060411523072

    Not a great start to “Black History Month”…

    I find the idea October is "Black History Month" is very odd. For me October is Halloween, in the same way as December is Christmas. Black and orange are the colours of October, but not that meaning of black.

    October is about witches, ghouls, skeletons, zombies, devils and so on . . . adding "black people" to that list seems more than a tad unfortunate.

    Just watched Hocus Pocus with the girls, it still holds up. Looking forward to watching Hocus Pocus 2 with them tonight.
    For me Halloween is the 31st and maybe the couple of days leading up to it, not the whole month.
    We enjoy Halloween for the whole month. Halloween movies whenever we watch a movie all month long, there's so many good ones you couldn't do them all in a day, and all the shops have Halloween stuff all month etc too. Plus other activities, we're going pumpkin picking later this month on a farm, then will be pumpkin carving after. The kids do Halloween activities at school, at Rainbows and Brownies. Oh and Pumpkin Spice Latte etc too.

    Halloween is a month long for us, not a day, any more than Christmas is just 25 December.
    When you explain it like that, it does seem terribly inconsiderate that black history should intrude so much into your whole month of focusing on made up childish nonsense.
    "Childish nonsense" - do you consider Christmas to be childish nonsense?

    In case you missed it, most of that stuff I named (apart from the latte) is for my children. So excuse me if activities aimed for children are childish. I suppose Christmas Grottos are made up childish nonsense to you too? 🙄

    December being linked with Christmas, and October with Halloween, is not a novel or new concept. It just strikes me as odd that black history isn't linked to a month without a strong connection to something else already.
    It was a simple pisstake of you getting the hump about black history being in focus for a whole month. That month being October, so enough of the misdirection about Christmas, please.

    And yes, I love Halloween and Christmas. Our kids used to compete to build grottos on Christmas morning and I very much enjoyed the childish nonsense that it was.
    There some people on PB that would argue that up and down are the same thing, wet is the same as dry, and there is no difference between loud and quiet.

    You might want to keep that in mind because using reason and facts will not save you :wink:
  • Scott_xP said:

    The lack of Treasury experience in the most senior positions is one notable element of the current situ.

    Perm sec: (empty)
    Second perm sec: (empty)
    Chancellor: 25 days
    Chief Sec: 25 days
    Finance Sec: 23 days

    So in five of the top Treasury jobs… **73 days** experience total.


    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1576190729918947328

    Minimum requirement for cabinet level posts should be 3 years experience as either junior minister or select committee in relevant departments only. Stop plonking MPs who have no knowledge of an area into the most important roles in the country.
    Whilst that may help, I think relevant experience in the outside world would be more beneficial - ie the Chancellor being a former finance director/economist , Health minister being a medical professional etc -
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,726

    Nigelb said:

    Haven't fully caught up yet, but am enjoying the mental whiplash on manifestos.

    When discussing PR and coalitions - the fact that we supposedly vote according to manifestos is crucial, compromise and coalitions damage the very fabric of our political system.

    When discussing a majority party making huge changes mid-term - the fact that we supposedly vote according to manifestos is irrelevant, they have no hold on a Government that can call upon a majority in the House of Commons under our political system.

    Fun.

    My personal take is the same for both: politicians elected as our representatives can compromise (with each other, with reality, and/or with ideology) as much as they like. But they will have to face the electorate afterwards, who will pass judgement on what compromises they decided to make.

    And politicians know this, and this will influence the House of Commons as a whole, and if it doesn't, they will face the electorate in due time. As did the Lib Dems after compromising away their tuition fees stance.

    This is why certain forms of PR - those which advocate party lists - are so pernicious. The result is that some MPs know they will get re-elected almost no matter what. Obviously there are a number of systems that don't work this way but anything that gives more power to the parties should be avoided.
    I still think the Danish option of unweighted lists is a happy compromise - yes, you have a party list, but you choose a specific person on it, and if party X gets N seats, they go to the N candidates with the most personal votes on the list. This encourages parties to seek diversity instead of robotic loyalty - for example, the Tories could have a list with Truss and Sunak and Gove and various other flavours, and if you like the Tories in general but want to avoid certain types of them, you can do exactly that. The party benefits by attracting a variety of support.

    It is also possible to simply vote for the party. Some Danish parties allocate such votes to the people at the top of the list, which does boost the power of the party to reward loyalty. Essentially the voter is saying "I like the Tories and delegate to them which individuals get seats". But others simply ignore those votes in deciding who gets the seats, and that's the variant I like.
    Not for me I'm afraid. It still gives too much power to the parties. Any system that allows the parties to claim that votes were for them rather than for an individual is a retrograde step in my eyes. We should be reducing the influence and power of the party over democratic politics rather than increasing it.
    Most people vote for a party and potential PM so not a convincing argument against the Danish system. Curtailing party control a good objective I agree, the Danish approach might be a good pragmatic compromise. If large multi-member constituencies were part of the system that would give competition within a constituency in terms of dealing with issues for constituents.
    No most people THINK they are voting for a party when in fact they are not. They are voting for an individual representative. That is what we should reinforce rather than giving more power to parties which are a perversion of the democratic system.
    Parties are a feature of pretty well every democracy, and seem to be necessary to their organised functioning at the national level.
    I’m no fan of them, and instinctively shy away from attaching myself to one, but they are not a ‘perversion’, even if some of their manifestations can be.
    What about introducing the secret ballot? In Parliament…
    Interesting idea, but how happy would constituents be about that ?
    I favour PR, since it would get rid of the two party lock on government. That’s certainly one of the thing which leads to rule by unrepresentative factions who temporarily seize hold of the party apparatus.
  • Turkey again saying they will block Sweden’s NATO application.

    Turkey are quite close to Russia nowadays - more so than Nato really - Turkey may do a Nexit in a few years imo
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,599
    Genuine red letter day on power generation:

    67% of electricity is from wind or solar at this moment. Less than 10% from gas and only 1.5% from biomass.

    That's got to be a record, surely?

    And it helps that demand is sensationally low for some reason even though France is sucking in power like you can't believe it, but it's still good news.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,599
    Scott_xP said:
    That last paragraph is, oddly, how teachers feel about the DfE.

    Except for 'government' substitute 'real life.'
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,522
    Anyway, I'm off but the pre-race ramble with the incredibly insightful tip that fails due to monumental bad luck will be posted tomorrow.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The lack of Treasury experience in the most senior positions is one notable element of the current situ.

    Perm sec: (empty)
    Second perm sec: (empty)
    Chancellor: 25 days
    Chief Sec: 25 days
    Finance Sec: 23 days

    So in five of the top Treasury jobs… **73 days** experience total.


    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1576190729918947328

    Minimum requirement for cabinet level posts should be 3 years experience as either junior minister or select committee in relevant departments only. Stop plonking MPs who have no knowledge of an area into the most important roles in the country.
    Whilst that may help, I think relevant experience in the outside world would be more beneficial - ie the Chancellor being a former finance director/economist , Health minister being a medical professional etc -
    Didnt Truss and Kwarteng both work in the city? Along with JRM and others in the cabinet. All still either mad or terribly informed.
  • ydoethur said:

    Genuine red letter day on power generation:

    67% of electricity is from wind or solar at this moment. Less than 10% from gas and only 1.5% from biomass.

    That's got to be a record, surely?

    And it helps that demand is sensationally low for some reason even though France is sucking in power like you can't believe it, but it's still good news.

    demand is low because people delaying putting on heating and government buildings tend to work on a rigid 1st oct to 31 March heating on cycle . It is probably the time of year therefore for peak renewable. No bad thing of course but lets not pretend gas is not needed in huge quantities for many years to come
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,599

    Anyway, I'm off but the pre-race ramble with the incredibly insightful tip that fails due to monumental bad luck Ferrari's latest unbelievable cockup will be posted tomorrow.

    FTFY :smile:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,714
    Cicero said:

    The latest (Russian propagandist) RYBAR map - 3.00pm local time - shows Lyman in Ukrainian hands and the battlefront moved north and east by some 10km.

    https://twitter.com/WWIIIAR/status/1576185632564871174/photo/1

    As indeed was reported several hours ago. Looks like the fall of Lyman was like the road to Basra. A complete disaster for Russia.
    Russia confirming they have withdrawn from Lyman.

    Maybe some inverted commas required there, Russia.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,599

    ydoethur said:

    Genuine red letter day on power generation:

    67% of electricity is from wind or solar at this moment. Less than 10% from gas and only 1.5% from biomass.

    That's got to be a record, surely?

    And it helps that demand is sensationally low for some reason even though France is sucking in power like you can't believe it, but it's still good news.

    demand is low because people delaying putting on heating and government buildings tend to work on a rigid 1st oct to 31 March heating on cycle . It is probably the time of year therefore for peak renewable. No bad thing of course but lets not pretend gas is not needed in huge quantities for many years to come
    This is electricity generation. Not gas heating. People's heating wouldn't be affecting it.

    (Anyway, it is October 1st. By your logic the heating should be spiking.)
  • Scott_xP said:

    The lack of Treasury experience in the most senior positions is one notable element of the current situ.

    Perm sec: (empty)
    Second perm sec: (empty)
    Chancellor: 25 days
    Chief Sec: 25 days
    Finance Sec: 23 days

    So in five of the top Treasury jobs… **73 days** experience total.


    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1576190729918947328

    Minimum requirement for cabinet level posts should be 3 years experience as either junior minister or select committee in relevant departments only. Stop plonking MPs who have no knowledge of an area into the most important roles in the country.
    Whilst that may help, I think relevant experience in the outside world would be more beneficial - ie the Chancellor being a former finance director/economist , Health minister being a medical professional etc -
    Didnt Truss and Kwarteng both work in the city? Along with JRM and others in the cabinet. All still either mad or terribly informed.
    well quite - it does not necessarily mean competence but surely it helps
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,726
    Well the first of Putin’s new “possessions” is about to be taken away from him.
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1576149053771063298
    Ukrainian troops enter Donetsk's Lyman as officials confirm liberation of five nearby settlements

    Liberation of Yampil, Novoselivka, Shandryholove, Drobysheve, Stavky is officially confirmed. Locals report Ukrainian troops in Lyman's northern end
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,599

    Scott_xP said:

    The lack of Treasury experience in the most senior positions is one notable element of the current situ.

    Perm sec: (empty)
    Second perm sec: (empty)
    Chancellor: 25 days
    Chief Sec: 25 days
    Finance Sec: 23 days

    So in five of the top Treasury jobs… **73 days** experience total.


    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1576190729918947328

    Minimum requirement for cabinet level posts should be 3 years experience as either junior minister or select committee in relevant departments only. Stop plonking MPs who have no knowledge of an area into the most important roles in the country.
    What about the Civil Service?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,355

    Didnt Truss and Kwarteng both work in the city? Along with JRM and others in the cabinet. All still either mad or terribly informed.

    ...
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,505
    Scott_xP said:
    I could give him some advice in just one paragraph.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,444
    ydoethur said:

    Genuine red letter day on power generation:

    67% of electricity is from wind or solar at this moment. Less than 10% from gas and only 1.5% from biomass.

    That's got to be a record, surely?

    And it helps that demand is sensationally low for some reason even though France is sucking in power like you can't believe it, but it's still good news.

    It'll be interesting if the wind lasts the day, we would have had more electricity over the day as a whole from nuclear than from gas. That can't happen very often.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,726
    Ukrainian troops have entered the city of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, confirmed the spokesman of the eastern grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Serhiy Cherevatyi on the national telethon program.

    "We are already in Lyman, but there are still battles. Details will follow later."

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1576205473283735554
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,544

    Tres said:

    Oops….

    That isn’t me…
    @DailyMirror


    https://twitter.com/KwasiKwarteng/status/1576133060411523072

    Not a great start to “Black History Month”…

    I find the idea October is "Black History Month" is very odd. For me October is Halloween, in the same way as December is Christmas. Black and orange are the colours of October, but not that meaning of black.

    October is about witches, ghouls, skeletons, zombies, devils and so on . . . adding "black people" to that list seems more than a tad unfortunate.

    Just watched Hocus Pocus with the girls, it still holds up. Looking forward to watching Hocus Pocus 2 with them tonight.
    For me Halloween is the 31st and maybe the couple of days leading up to it, not the whole month.
    We enjoy Halloween for the whole month. Halloween movies whenever we watch a movie all month long, there's so many good ones you couldn't do them all in a day, and all the shops have Halloween stuff all month etc too. Plus other activities, we're going pumpkin picking later this month on a farm, then will be pumpkin carving after. The kids do Halloween activities at school, at Rainbows and Brownies. Oh and Pumpkin Spice Latte etc too.

    Halloween is a month long for us, not a day, any more than Christmas is just 25 December.
    When you explain it like that, it does seem terribly inconsiderate that black history should intrude so much into your whole month of focusing on made up childish nonsense.
    "Childish nonsense" - do you consider Christmas to be childish nonsense?

    In case you missed it, most of that stuff I named (apart from the latte) is for my children. So excuse me if activities aimed for children are childish. I suppose Christmas Grottos are made up childish nonsense to you too? 🙄

    December being linked with Christmas, and October with Halloween, is not a novel or new concept. It just strikes me as odd that black history isn't linked to a month without a strong connection to something else already.
    I'm surprised at you endorsing Halloween, which surely nurtures a dependency culture. Is it any wonder that the British are as our prime minister puts it the laziest people in the world when they are taught from a young age that they just have to dress up as Harry Potter and people will hand them a bag of haribos?
  • Turkey again saying they will block Sweden’s NATO application.

    Turkey are quite close to Russia nowadays - more so than Nato really - Turkey may do a Nexit in a few years imo
    Turkey has history with Sweden.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,544

    Scott_xP said:
    I could give him some advice in just one paragraph.
    Two words would do it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,714

    Scott_xP said:
    I could give him some advice in just one paragraph.
    One word: resign.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,799
    Is there any chance of Tory members showing some sense and bottle and actually booing the twerps that will be speaking to them?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,444

    ydoethur said:

    Genuine red letter day on power generation:

    67% of electricity is from wind or solar at this moment. Less than 10% from gas and only 1.5% from biomass.

    That's got to be a record, surely?

    And it helps that demand is sensationally low for some reason even though France is sucking in power like you can't believe it, but it's still good news.

    It'll be interesting if the wind lasts the day, we would have had more electricity over the day as a whole from nuclear than from gas. That can't happen very often.
    A reminder that the current record UK electricity from wind is 19.916 GW from May earlier this year. Would expect that to be broken a few times this winter.

    The 10 GW level was broken for the first time in January 2018. We've been continuously over that level for all of the last 24 hours.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Scott_xP said:
    I could give him some advice in just one paragraph.
    A single word would suffice.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    glw said:

    Is there any chance of Tory members showing some sense and bottle and actually booing the twerps that will be speaking to them?

    Probably not. They only elected the chief twerp a short time ago, so I would not expect too much.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,056
    edited October 2022

    Tres said:

    Oops….

    That isn’t me…
    @DailyMirror


    https://twitter.com/KwasiKwarteng/status/1576133060411523072

    Not a great start to “Black History Month”…

    I find the idea October is "Black History Month" is very odd. For me October is Halloween, in the same way as December is Christmas. Black and orange are the colours of October, but not that meaning of black.

    October is about witches, ghouls, skeletons, zombies, devils and so on . . . adding "black people" to that list seems more than a tad unfortunate.

    Just watched Hocus Pocus with the girls, it still holds up. Looking forward to watching Hocus Pocus 2 with them tonight.
    For me Halloween is the 31st and maybe the couple of days leading up to it, not the whole month.
    We enjoy Halloween for the whole month. Halloween movies whenever we watch a movie all month long, there's so many good ones you couldn't do them all in a day, and all the shops have Halloween stuff all month etc too. Plus other activities, we're going pumpkin picking later this month on a farm, then will be pumpkin carving after. The kids do Halloween activities at school, at Rainbows and Brownies. Oh and Pumpkin Spice Latte etc too.

    Halloween is a month long for us, not a day, any more than Christmas is just 25 December.
    When you explain it like that, it does seem terribly inconsiderate that black history should intrude so much into your whole month of focusing on made up childish nonsense.
    "Childish nonsense" - do you consider Christmas to be childish nonsense?

    In case you missed it, most of that stuff I named (apart from the latte) is for my children. So excuse me if activities aimed for children are childish. I suppose Christmas Grottos are made up childish nonsense to you too? 🙄

    December being linked with Christmas, and October with Halloween, is not a novel or new concept. It just strikes me as odd that black history isn't linked to a month without a strong connection to something else already.
    Much prefer the older ways; Halloween almost unnoticed and a triviality except a bit for the 6-11 year olds on 31st October; November the month of remembrance - All Saints, All Souls, Remembrance Sunday. Advent in December (good season for listening to Bach) getting ready for Christmas, which begins on Christmas Eve, ending on 6th January, extending to 2nd Feb if you have the mind to do so. The world is a bit against this but I do my best. The days after 25th December are best - time for people and visitors, and a bit of time off. Think about a tree about 21st December.

    Every month should be Black History month to make up for past distortions in the western imagination.

  • Tres said:

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    Oops….

    That isn’t me…
    @DailyMirror


    https://twitter.com/KwasiKwarteng/status/1576133060411523072

    Not a great start to “Black History Month”…

    I find the idea October is "Black History Month" is very odd. For me October is Halloween, in the same way as December is Christmas. Black and orange are the colours of October, but not that meaning of black.

    October is about witches, ghouls, skeletons, zombies, devils and so on . . . adding "black people" to that list seems more than a tad unfortunate.

    Just watched Hocus Pocus with the girls, it still holds up. Looking forward to watching Hocus Pocus 2 with them tonight.
    For me Halloween is the 31st and maybe the couple of days leading up to it, not the whole month.
    We enjoy Halloween for the whole month. Halloween movies whenever we watch a movie all month long, there's so many good ones you couldn't do them all in a day, and all the shops have Halloween stuff all month etc too. Plus other activities, we're going pumpkin picking later this month on a farm, then will be pumpkin carving after. The kids do Halloween activities at school, at Rainbows and Brownies. Oh and Pumpkin Spice Latte etc too.

    Halloween is a month long for us, not a day, any more than Christmas is just 25 December.
    You do realise of course that your personal experience of the world may differ from the rest of us,,,,,..
    Indeed but Bart isn't trying to push his experiences on you in the way Black History Month is pushed on the rest of us. He simply made an observation about what October means to him. To me it means something different again but I also don't seek to make others conform to my view.
    Out of all the shitty things happening in the world, learning about black history doesn't come close to making my list of things to get upset about.
    Sad that you can't tell the difference between an observation and getting upset. But then all you are really seeking to do is create division so I understand your hyperbole.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,726

    Scott_xP said:
    I could give him some advice in just one paragraph.
    One word: resign.
    Resign now.
  • Nigelb said:

    Haven't fully caught up yet, but am enjoying the mental whiplash on manifestos.

    When discussing PR and coalitions - the fact that we supposedly vote according to manifestos is crucial, compromise and coalitions damage the very fabric of our political system.

    When discussing a majority party making huge changes mid-term - the fact that we supposedly vote according to manifestos is irrelevant, they have no hold on a Government that can call upon a majority in the House of Commons under our political system.

    Fun.

    My personal take is the same for both: politicians elected as our representatives can compromise (with each other, with reality, and/or with ideology) as much as they like. But they will have to face the electorate afterwards, who will pass judgement on what compromises they decided to make.

    And politicians know this, and this will influence the House of Commons as a whole, and if it doesn't, they will face the electorate in due time. As did the Lib Dems after compromising away their tuition fees stance.

    This is why certain forms of PR - those which advocate party lists - are so pernicious. The result is that some MPs know they will get re-elected almost no matter what. Obviously there are a number of systems that don't work this way but anything that gives more power to the parties should be avoided.
    I still think the Danish option of unweighted lists is a happy compromise - yes, you have a party list, but you choose a specific person on it, and if party X gets N seats, they go to the N candidates with the most personal votes on the list. This encourages parties to seek diversity instead of robotic loyalty - for example, the Tories could have a list with Truss and Sunak and Gove and various other flavours, and if you like the Tories in general but want to avoid certain types of them, you can do exactly that. The party benefits by attracting a variety of support.

    It is also possible to simply vote for the party. Some Danish parties allocate such votes to the people at the top of the list, which does boost the power of the party to reward loyalty. Essentially the voter is saying "I like the Tories and delegate to them which individuals get seats". But others simply ignore those votes in deciding who gets the seats, and that's the variant I like.
    Not for me I'm afraid. It still gives too much power to the parties. Any system that allows the parties to claim that votes were for them rather than for an individual is a retrograde step in my eyes. We should be reducing the influence and power of the party over democratic politics rather than increasing it.
    Most people vote for a party and potential PM so not a convincing argument against the Danish system. Curtailing party control a good objective I agree, the Danish approach might be a good pragmatic compromise. If large multi-member constituencies were part of the system that would give competition within a constituency in terms of dealing with issues for constituents.
    No most people THINK they are voting for a party when in fact they are not. They are voting for an individual representative. That is what we should reinforce rather than giving more power to parties which are a perversion of the democratic system.
    Parties are a feature of pretty well every democracy, and seem to be necessary to their organised functioning at the national level.
    I’m no fan of them, and instinctively shy away from attaching myself to one, but they are not a ‘perversion’, even if some of their manifestations can be.
    The perversion is the way they control power through bribery and threat. I have no problems with partis per se. But they should not be allowed to pervert the democratic system by forcing MPs to vote against their own consciences or the best interests of their constituents. I admired Ken Clarke for his opposition to Brexit (even though I had less time for those who claimed they would support the result but then changed their tune after they were re-elected)

    Let the parties exist but remove their power to coerce rather than persuade MPs to support them.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,415
    ydoethur said:

    Turkey again saying they will block Sweden’s NATO application.

    He has actually said that he will not approve it until they have enacted all the conditions he agreed to.

    Which, since they are in the process of enacting most of them, including lifting their arms embargo as of last night, seems to be mostly posturing for his domestic audience.
    It’s very elaborate street theatre - the Turks won’t actually get any Kurds extradited, and then know it, but they will get “concessions”. Which will make the voters in Turkey feel something has been done.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Breaking: Russia has been voted out of the ICAO council (at UN for aviation here in Montreal) following a democratic vote by member states — the first time in history that a country has been voted out of the premier category of the council. #ICAO….

    Now: Russia is *refusing* to recognise the results of the election, demanding a second vote.

    ICAO Execs and over 170 countries remain gathered in the UN assembly hall grappling with what to do next

    Majority of countries are highlighting the election was free, fair & final #ICAO


    https://twitter.com/alexinair/status/1576222097281810432
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,978
    Just a few funny straws in the wind. A friend has just returned from Spain. He says that tens of thousands of Russian young men have turned up. Meanwhile on this morning´s ferries to Helsinki a huge number of Russian young men "with a lot of luggage". I think the suggested 250,000 Young Russians leaving the country may be an underestimate. Of course that kind of destroys the Russian army, but the Russian economy is also being shattered here too.

    Then there is the "rally" in Red Square. even the hand picked were not exactly rising to the blood curdling cries from the assorted fascists on stage. Obviously we know that most Russians are quiescent towards the regime, but even still..

    The crushing defeat at Lyman is now likely to be followed by more of the same, to the point that the Russian army can no longer function.

    It feels like Russia has gone over the cliff, and some kind of breakdown is emerging as the most likely future. I do not know what happens next, but the outlook for the regime is darkening by the day.

    "'Stand, Men of the West! Stand and wait! This is the hour of doom".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,726
    Russian sappers blew up a bridge on the only road out of Lyman too early - stopping their own convoy and exposing hundreds of Russia’s regular troops to a devastating ‘turkey shoot’ - a deliberate act to punish retreating survivors for disobeying Putin’s orders or a real mistake?
    https://twitter.com/joerichlaw/status/1576217831695216640
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,162
    The polling response to this week’s mini-budget is bigger than the one after Black Wednesday.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,415
    Cicero said:

    Just a few funny straws in the wind. A friend has just returned from Spain. He says that tens of thousands of Russian young men have turned up. Meanwhile on this morning´s ferries to Helsinki a huge number of Russian young men "with a lot of luggage". I think the suggested 250,000 Young Russians leaving the country may be an underestimate. Of course that kind of destroys the Russian army, but the Russian economy is also being shattered here too.

    Then there is the "rally" in Red Square. even the hand picked were not exactly rising to the blood curdling cries from the assorted fascists on stage. Obviously we know that most Russians are quiescent towards the regime, but even still..

    The crushing defeat at Lyman is now likely to be followed by more of the same, to the point that the Russian army can no longer function.

    It feels like Russia has gone over the cliff, and some kind of breakdown is emerging as the most likely future. I do not know what happens next, but the outlook for the regime is darkening by the day.

    "'Stand, Men of the West! Stand and wait! This is the hour of doom".

    “There rose a huge shape of shadow, impenetrable, lightning-crowned, filling all the sky. Enormous it reared above the world, and stretched out towards them a vast threatening hand, terrible but impotent; for even as it leaned over them, a great wind took it, and it was all blown away, and passed; and then a hush fell.”
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,992
    glw said:

    Is there any chance of Tory members showing some sense and bottle and actually booing the twerps that will be speaking to them?

    Interestingly Lord Heseltine will be attending his first Tory conference for many years. He will be speaking at a fringe event with David Gauke for the European Movement

    https://www.instagram.com/p/CjKrKpmKsQ7/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
  • glwglw Posts: 9,799

    Breaking: Russia has been voted out of the ICAO council (at UN for aviation here in Montreal) following a democratic vote by member states — the first time in history that a country has been voted out of the premier category of the council. #ICAO….

    Now: Russia is *refusing* to recognise the results of the election, demanding a second vote.

    ICAO Execs and over 170 countries remain gathered in the UN assembly hall grappling with what to do next

    Majority of countries are highlighting the election was free, fair & final #ICAO


    https://twitter.com/alexinair/status/1576222097281810432

    That's a good move. If we can't boot them out of the UN itself then removing them from subsidiary agencies instead will cause Russia some real trouble.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,963

    Turkey again saying they will block Sweden’s NATO application.

    Sigh, what are they after this time?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Conference off to a great start as the hosting Tory Mayor puts down the Chairman of the Young Conservative Network for calling Birmingham a dump. He then deletes the tweet, pretends to have sent it because of a mugging attempt, but multiple tweets to the same effect resurface.

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1576196176679870464
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,415
    kle4 said:

    Turkey again saying they will block Sweden’s NATO application.

    Sigh, what are they after this time?
    It’s like the voting for the Oscars - probably a really bling watch?
  • glw said:

    Is there any chance of Tory members showing some sense and bottle and actually booing the twerps that will be speaking to them?

    More chance of seeing Vlad's apparatchicks giving him the bird.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,225
    philiph said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    I haven’t read it so can anyone tell me if any of what is unfolding from our new leaders was in the 2019 Conservative Party manifesto?

    It matters not.
    Does to me, which is why I’m asking
    I don't think Covid or Ukrainian war were in the manifesto.
    Manifesto, from any party is a document of rubbish, you shoild never elect anyone who is so unimaginative that they think governing according to a givecyesr old plan is feasible or desireable.
    Should be called a Manfester
    I don't think Covid or Ukrainian war were in the manifesto.

    You clearly didn't listen to Putin's speech, then.
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,595

    Conference off to a great start as the hosting Tory Mayor puts down the Chairman of the Young Conservative Network for calling Birmingham a dump. He then deletes the tweet, pretends to have sent it because of a mugging attempt, but multiple tweets to the same effect resurface.

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1576196176679870464

    If he thinks Birmingham is the worst city in the U.K. he’s never been to Sunderland.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    Is there any chance of Tory members showing some sense and bottle and actually booing the twerps that will be speaking to them?

    Interestingly Lord Heseltine will be attending his first Tory conference for many years. He will be speaking at a fringe event with David Gauke for the European Movement

    https://www.instagram.com/p/CjKrKpmKsQ7/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
    That will have all the sane Tories attending. I presume they booked only a small room?
  • glw said:

    Is there any chance of Tory members showing some sense and bottle and actually booing the twerps that will be speaking to them?

    Good afternoon

    I expect there will a lot of members, supporters and even mps keeping miles away
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,992

    Conference off to a great start as the hosting Tory Mayor puts down the Chairman of the Young Conservative Network for calling Birmingham a dump. He then deletes the tweet, pretends to have sent it because of a mugging attempt, but multiple tweets to the same effect resurface.

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1576196176679870464

    A bit harsh on Birmingham maybe but there is no doubt the majority of the Tory delegates would prefer the conference to be in Bournemouth or Harrogate
  • Cicero said:

    Just a few funny straws in the wind. A friend has just returned from Spain. He says that tens of thousands of Russian young men have turned up. Meanwhile on this morning´s ferries to Helsinki a huge number of Russian young men "with a lot of luggage". I think the suggested 250,000 Young Russians leaving the country may be an underestimate. Of course that kind of destroys the Russian army, but the Russian economy is also being shattered here too.

    Then there is the "rally" in Red Square. even the hand picked were not exactly rising to the blood curdling cries from the assorted fascists on stage. Obviously we know that most Russians are quiescent towards the regime, but even still..

    The crushing defeat at Lyman is now likely to be followed by more of the same, to the point that the Russian army can no longer function.

    It feels like Russia has gone over the cliff, and some kind of breakdown is emerging as the most likely future. I do not know what happens next, but the outlook for the regime is darkening by the day.

    "'Stand, Men of the West! Stand and wait! This is the hour of doom".

    Maybe also the ladies
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,415
    Nigelb said:

    Russian sappers blew up a bridge on the only road out of Lyman too early - stopping their own convoy and exposing hundreds of Russia’s regular troops to a devastating ‘turkey shoot’ - a deliberate act to punish retreating survivors for disobeying Putin’s orders or a real mistake?
    https://twitter.com/joerichlaw/status/1576217831695216640

    Putin told his commanders to re-enact Stalingrad. So they did.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Breaking: Russia has been voted out of the ICAO council (at UN for aviation here in Montreal) following a democratic vote by member states — the first time in history that a country has been voted out of the premier category of the council. #ICAO….

    Now: Russia is *refusing* to recognise the results of the election, demanding a second vote.

    ICAO Execs and over 170 countries remain gathered in the UN assembly hall grappling with what to do next

    Majority of countries are highlighting the election was free, fair & final #ICAO


    https://twitter.com/alexinair/status/1576222097281810432

    What did they expect after the aircraft leasing debacle? I am only surprised it took this long.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,162
    edited October 2022

    Conference off to a great start as the hosting Tory Mayor puts down the Chairman of the Young Conservative Network for calling Birmingham a dump. He then deletes the tweet, pretends to have sent it because of a mugging attempt, but multiple tweets to the same effect resurface.

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1576196176679870464

    Maybe he was mugged several times?

    Time to make membership of the Conservative Party a notifiable condition.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,963
    Scott_xP said:
    It isn't exactly uncommon for important and very busy people to seek to cut down the length of summaries they receive, concision is important (if not something I practice). But somethings really do take more than a paragraph, or even two gods forbid, to adequately explain things.

    An insistence that people cut down everything is as silly as what I hope is purely a TV trope where lawyers in court demand yes or no answers to questions, which would force people into giving misleading answers when the truth requires some nuance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,963

    Nigelb said:

    Russian sappers blew up a bridge on the only road out of Lyman too early - stopping their own convoy and exposing hundreds of Russia’s regular troops to a devastating ‘turkey shoot’ - a deliberate act to punish retreating survivors for disobeying Putin’s orders or a real mistake?
    https://twitter.com/joerichlaw/status/1576217831695216640

    Putin told his commanders to re-enact Stalingrad. So they did.
    Except that the Russians won Stalingrad. At terrible cost, but still.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    HYUFD said:

    Conference off to a great start as the hosting Tory Mayor puts down the Chairman of the Young Conservative Network for calling Birmingham a dump. He then deletes the tweet, pretends to have sent it because of a mugging attempt, but multiple tweets to the same effect resurface.

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1576196176679870464

    A bit harsh on Birmingham maybe but there is no doubt the majority of the Tory delegates would prefer the conference to be in Bournemouth or Harrogate
    Do they want to win the next GE or not?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,963
    glw said:

    Breaking: Russia has been voted out of the ICAO council (at UN for aviation here in Montreal) following a democratic vote by member states — the first time in history that a country has been voted out of the premier category of the council. #ICAO….

    Now: Russia is *refusing* to recognise the results of the election, demanding a second vote.

    ICAO Execs and over 170 countries remain gathered in the UN assembly hall grappling with what to do next

    Majority of countries are highlighting the election was free, fair & final #ICAO


    https://twitter.com/alexinair/status/1576222097281810432

    That's a good move. If we can't boot them out of the UN itself then removing them from subsidiary agencies instead will cause Russia some real trouble.
    I look forward to Russia's usual 'How dare anyone actually respond to what we are doing? This is an outrage!" reaction.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,962
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It isn't exactly uncommon for important and very busy people to seek to cut down the length of summaries they receive, concision is important (if not something I practice). But somethings really do take more than a paragraph, or even two gods forbid, to adequately explain things.

    An insistence that people cut down everything is as silly as what I hope is purely a TV trope where lawyers in court demand yes or no answers to questions, which would force people into giving misleading answers when the truth requires some nuance.
    "I must insist that you only answer 'yes' or 'no' to the questions I pose, or you may be held in contempt of court. Do you understand?"

    --- "Yes"

    "Good. What is your name?"

    --- "Um. No?"
  • HYUFD said:

    Conference off to a great start as the hosting Tory Mayor puts down the Chairman of the Young Conservative Network for calling Birmingham a dump. He then deletes the tweet, pretends to have sent it because of a mugging attempt, but multiple tweets to the same effect resurface.

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1576196176679870464

    A bit harsh on Birmingham maybe but there is no doubt the majority of the Tory delegates would prefer the conference to be in Bournemouth or Harrogate
    Then that says it all and they deserve to be out of office for decades

    This is not the conservative party I have supported since I was 18 (60 years ago) and I am very near to ticking Starmers box, just as I did for Blair, though Starmer is no Blair but he understands fairness

    It will take the conservative party to come to its senses and appoint Sunak in place of the dreadful Truss and even worse Kwarteng for me to even consider supporting them
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    HYUFD said:

    Conference off to a great start as the hosting Tory Mayor puts down the Chairman of the Young Conservative Network for calling Birmingham a dump. He then deletes the tweet, pretends to have sent it because of a mugging attempt, but multiple tweets to the same effect resurface.

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1576196176679870464

    A bit harsh on Birmingham maybe but there is no doubt the majority of the Tory delegates would prefer the conference to be in Bournemouth or Harrogate
    Eastbourne would have been a better choice - unlimited Zimmerframe parking....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449
    HYUFD said:

    Conference off to a great start as the hosting Tory Mayor puts down the Chairman of the Young Conservative Network for calling Birmingham a dump. He then deletes the tweet, pretends to have sent it because of a mugging attempt, but multiple tweets to the same effect resurface.

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1576196176679870464

    A bit harsh on Birmingham maybe but there is no doubt the majority of the Tory delegates would prefer the conference to be in Bournemouth or Harrogate
    As an aside I bet Street is in a foul mood, seeing as HS2 is about to be cancelled any day now, undoing his years and years of patient hard work on the project.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,452
    edited October 2022

    Conference off to a great start as the hosting Tory Mayor puts down the Chairman of the Young Conservative Network for calling Birmingham a dump. He then deletes the tweet, pretends to have sent it because of a mugging attempt, but multiple tweets to the same effect resurface.

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1576196176679870464

    Haw! Edit: but tbf it was Master YC not Mr Street who was fibbing about mugging ...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    HYUFD said:

    Conference off to a great start as the hosting Tory Mayor puts down the Chairman of the Young Conservative Network for calling Birmingham a dump. He then deletes the tweet, pretends to have sent it because of a mugging attempt, but multiple tweets to the same effect resurface.

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1576196176679870464

    A bit harsh on Birmingham maybe but there is no doubt the majority of the Tory delegates would prefer the conference to be in Bournemouth or Harrogate
    Eastbourne would have been a better choice - unlimited Zimmerframe parking....
    As the old road signpost goes “Dover for the Continent, Eastbourne for the incontinent”
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449
    Cicero said:

    Just a few funny straws in the wind. A friend has just returned from Spain. He says that tens of thousands of Russian young men have turned up. Meanwhile on this morning´s ferries to Helsinki a huge number of Russian young men "with a lot of luggage". I think the suggested 250,000 Young Russians leaving the country may be an underestimate. Of course that kind of destroys the Russian army, but the Russian economy is also being shattered here too.

    Then there is the "rally" in Red Square. even the hand picked were not exactly rising to the blood curdling cries from the assorted fascists on stage. Obviously we know that most Russians are quiescent towards the regime, but even still..

    The crushing defeat at Lyman is now likely to be followed by more of the same, to the point that the Russian army can no longer function.

    It feels like Russia has gone over the cliff, and some kind of breakdown is emerging as the most likely future. I do not know what happens next, but the outlook for the regime is darkening by the day.

    "'Stand, Men of the West! Stand and wait! This is the hour of doom".

    How do 10Ks of russian men get a visa to head to spain?
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481

    HYUFD said:

    Conference off to a great start as the hosting Tory Mayor puts down the Chairman of the Young Conservative Network for calling Birmingham a dump. He then deletes the tweet, pretends to have sent it because of a mugging attempt, but multiple tweets to the same effect resurface.

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1576196176679870464

    A bit harsh on Birmingham maybe but there is no doubt the majority of the Tory delegates would prefer the conference to be in Bournemouth or Harrogate
    As an aside I bet Street is in a foul mood, seeing as HS2 is about to be cancelled any day now, undoing his years and years of patient hard work on the project.
    Well they can hardly cancel the route to Birmingham - it's already being built....

    And it will demonstrate that the Tories don't care about anything beyond London so that's going to cost them some Northern seats...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,452

    HYUFD said:

    Conference off to a great start as the hosting Tory Mayor puts down the Chairman of the Young Conservative Network for calling Birmingham a dump. He then deletes the tweet, pretends to have sent it because of a mugging attempt, but multiple tweets to the same effect resurface.

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1576196176679870464

    A bit harsh on Birmingham maybe but there is no doubt the majority of the Tory delegates would prefer the conference to be in Bournemouth or Harrogate
    Is it just me or does it seem the Tory party is basically having a collective breakdown whilst still nominally in office?
    It's not just because Master Grainger of the YCs thinks Brum is allegedly a dump (tho' he should have seen it in the 1970s) - it gets worse.

    https://twitter.com/BiliDowcr/status/1576196662334091265
  • HYUFD said:

    Conference off to a great start as the hosting Tory Mayor puts down the Chairman of the Young Conservative Network for calling Birmingham a dump. He then deletes the tweet, pretends to have sent it because of a mugging attempt, but multiple tweets to the same effect resurface.

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1576196176679870464

    A bit harsh on Birmingham maybe but there is no doubt the majority of the Tory delegates would prefer the conference to be in Bournemouth or Harrogate
    Good job these snobs didnt campaign on an agenda of levelling up.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,963

    Scott_xP said:

    The lack of Treasury experience in the most senior positions is one notable element of the current situ.

    Perm sec: (empty)
    Second perm sec: (empty)
    Chancellor: 25 days
    Chief Sec: 25 days
    Finance Sec: 23 days

    So in five of the top Treasury jobs… **73 days** experience total.


    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1576190729918947328

    Minimum requirement for cabinet level posts should be 3 years experience as either junior minister or select committee in relevant departments only. Stop plonking MPs who have no knowledge of an area into the most important roles in the country.
    My problem with this is the typical issue of oppositions coming in, as shadow ministerial expereince is no substitute for the real thing either.

    But the experience point was very noticable.



    I noticed a week or so ago Donelan fibbing about having been in the Cabinet before being made Education Secretary for 2 days, when she was just an 'attends Cabinet'. Whilst Chief Secretary of the Treasury seems to go back and forth on its formal status, by and large if you don't have a department it's not the same thing at all.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I could give him some advice in just one paragraph.
    One word: resign.
    Resign now.
    I prefer John Farrow's way of dealing with these kinds of people.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,415
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russian sappers blew up a bridge on the only road out of Lyman too early - stopping their own convoy and exposing hundreds of Russia’s regular troops to a devastating ‘turkey shoot’ - a deliberate act to punish retreating survivors for disobeying Putin’s orders or a real mistake?
    https://twitter.com/joerichlaw/status/1576217831695216640

    Putin told his commanders to re-enact Stalingrad. So they did.
    Except that the Russians won Stalingrad. At terrible cost, but still.
    They are re-enacting Stalingrad. Just that Putin and Co are playing the Germans. Details, details.

    Given the chaotic supply chains and the terrible equipment provided by the Russian army and the oncoming winter, it looks like the Russians will be the ones campaigning in their summer uniforms, in the mud. The Ukrainians are just taking delivery of state of the art winter clothing from Finland….
  • HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    Is there any chance of Tory members showing some sense and bottle and actually booing the twerps that will be speaking to them?

    Interestingly Lord Heseltine will be attending his first Tory conference for many years. He will be speaking at a fringe event with David Gauke for the European Movement

    https://www.instagram.com/p/CjKrKpmKsQ7/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
    Have they let him back in?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,599

    ydoethur said:

    Turkey again saying they will block Sweden’s NATO application.

    He has actually said that he will not approve it until they have enacted all the conditions he agreed to.

    Which, since they are in the process of enacting most of them, including lifting their arms embargo as of last night, seems to be mostly posturing for his domestic audience.
    It’s very elaborate street theatre - the Turks won’t actually get any Kurds extradited, and then know it, but they will get “concessions”. Which will make the voters in Turkey feel something has been done.
    Which is why nobody has been expecting Turkey to ratify Sweden and Finland's NATO membership before next June. When there are elections in Turkey.

    Erdogan has already agreed in principle to let them in and I doubt if he will in practice stop them. But he needs the sabre to rattle for a few months more.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    I see Russia is now retreating from a logistics hub in "Russian territory" in a war it started on its neighbour. What a joke of a country.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,992

    HYUFD said:

    Conference off to a great start as the hosting Tory Mayor puts down the Chairman of the Young Conservative Network for calling Birmingham a dump. He then deletes the tweet, pretends to have sent it because of a mugging attempt, but multiple tweets to the same effect resurface.

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1576196176679870464

    A bit harsh on Birmingham maybe but there is no doubt the majority of the Tory delegates would prefer the conference to be in Bournemouth or Harrogate
    Good job these snobs didnt campaign on an agenda of levelling up.....
    Well Truss has clearly abandoned levelling up anyway now in favour of boosting the City of London more (at least in theory)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    There is a large fire reportedly coming from the Belbek airfield in Crimea home to Russia’s 27th Composite Aviation Division.
    https://t.me/chp_crimea/12192


    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576227894053208065
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,600

    Cicero said:

    Just a few funny straws in the wind. A friend has just returned from Spain. He says that tens of thousands of Russian young men have turned up. Meanwhile on this morning´s ferries to Helsinki a huge number of Russian young men "with a lot of luggage". I think the suggested 250,000 Young Russians leaving the country may be an underestimate. Of course that kind of destroys the Russian army, but the Russian economy is also being shattered here too.

    Then there is the "rally" in Red Square. even the hand picked were not exactly rising to the blood curdling cries from the assorted fascists on stage. Obviously we know that most Russians are quiescent towards the regime, but even still..

    The crushing defeat at Lyman is now likely to be followed by more of the same, to the point that the Russian army can no longer function.

    It feels like Russia has gone over the cliff, and some kind of breakdown is emerging as the most likely future. I do not know what happens next, but the outlook for the regime is darkening by the day.

    "'Stand, Men of the West! Stand and wait! This is the hour of doom".

    How do 10Ks of russian men get a visa to head to spain?
    It's quite common for people to have multi-year multiple entry Schengen visas.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,599

    Nigelb said:

    Russian sappers blew up a bridge on the only road out of Lyman too early - stopping their own convoy and exposing hundreds of Russia’s regular troops to a devastating ‘turkey shoot’ - a deliberate act to punish retreating survivors for disobeying Putin’s orders or a real mistake?
    https://twitter.com/joerichlaw/status/1576217831695216640

    Putin told his commanders to re-enact Stalingrad. So they did.
    They should tell him they want to do Operation Uranus.

    This one involving bayonets not tanks...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,415
    kle4 said:

    glw said:

    Breaking: Russia has been voted out of the ICAO council (at UN for aviation here in Montreal) following a democratic vote by member states — the first time in history that a country has been voted out of the premier category of the council. #ICAO….

    Now: Russia is *refusing* to recognise the results of the election, demanding a second vote.

    ICAO Execs and over 170 countries remain gathered in the UN assembly hall grappling with what to do next

    Majority of countries are highlighting the election was free, fair & final #ICAO


    https://twitter.com/alexinair/status/1576222097281810432

    That's a good move. If we can't boot them out of the UN itself then removing them from subsidiary agencies instead will cause Russia some real trouble.
    I look forward to Russia's usual 'How dare anyone actually respond to what we are doing? This is an outrage!" reaction.
    The ICAO say that 158% of their members voted to expel Russia.

    But they won’t, sadly
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481

    The polling response to this week’s mini-budget is bigger than the one after Black Wednesday.

    Black Wednesday was someone profiteering from the UK being in an impossible situation (it's more than that but it's Soros is the go to poster child for that day).

    Last week was completely self inflicted and the only names and faces involved are Truss and Kwasi...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,599
    edited October 2022
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Conference off to a great start as the hosting Tory Mayor puts down the Chairman of the Young Conservative Network for calling Birmingham a dump. He then deletes the tweet, pretends to have sent it because of a mugging attempt, but multiple tweets to the same effect resurface.

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1576196176679870464

    A bit harsh on Birmingham maybe but there is no doubt the majority of the Tory delegates would prefer the conference to be in Bournemouth or Harrogate
    As an aside I bet Street is in a foul mood, seeing as HS2 is about to be cancelled any day now, undoing his years and years of patient hard work on the project.
    Well they can hardly cancel the route to Birmingham - it's already being built....

    And it will demonstrate that the Tories don't care about anything beyond London so that's going to cost them some Northern seats...
    So is the route to Crewe. They may do an HS2 East on the route from Crewe to Manchester but I would say the rest has gone too far to stop.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,992

    HYUFD said:

    Conference off to a great start as the hosting Tory Mayor puts down the Chairman of the Young Conservative Network for calling Birmingham a dump. He then deletes the tweet, pretends to have sent it because of a mugging attempt, but multiple tweets to the same effect resurface.

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1576196176679870464

    A bit harsh on Birmingham maybe but there is no doubt the majority of the Tory delegates would prefer the conference to be in Bournemouth or Harrogate
    Then that says it all and they deserve to be out of office for decades

    This is not the conservative party I have supported since I was 18 (60 years ago) and I am very near to ticking Starmers box, just as I did for Blair, though Starmer is no Blair but he understands fairness

    It will take the conservative party to come to its senses and appoint Sunak in place of the dreadful Truss and even worse Kwarteng for me to even consider supporting them
    I am afraid it is, if you asked the average Tory conference attendee in the Thatcher years or the Major years or the Hague or Cameron years if they would have preferred the main party conference to be in Bournemouth or Birmingham they would have gone for Bournemouth everytime (with Harrogate for the spring conference)
This discussion has been closed.