Which ‘people’ would these be I wonder? The Sioux or Zoroastrians, or Rangers supporters perhaps?
What is with the KCMG bollocks? Is he allowed to advertise himself in that way?
Since if he were one the correct form of address would be 'Sir [Name] KG' I imagine he probably is. It would be like referring to yourself as the Supreme Duke and Earl Marshall of the Wash and Humber. It is a non-existent title so has no meaning.
I have edited that because of course KCMG is Michael and George, not the Garter.
More to the point, a little research confirms there are no 'Knight Commanders' in the Garter. They are 'Knight Companions.' It's the other orders have Knight Commanders. So it's a totally made up title.
Why would he do it? I don't know, but I'm guessing because he's a tool. This would be in character with much of his career.
Asking why Delingpole is acting like a prat, is rather like asking why water is wet.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
Cyclefree is on the ball as always. However as so often more than one strand of the many problems can get confused.
In terms of presentation obviously this is a disaster. In one bound Truss and co manage both to spook the people who actually have some say over trillions and to devastate the lives and opinions of ordinary middle ground punters. This takes skill. And there is a special advanced skill in giving away hundreds of billions of free money and getting no credit for it.
Books will be written about this.
However, the real problem is not the presentation disaster of giving away a few billion to the rich. These sums are accounting footnotes. The real problem is that we are in a cycle, and have been since 2008 at least of borrowing to live beyond our means and affording it by artificial zero/negative interest rates.
We are still in it. Bank crisis, Covid, Ukraine, and now Energy. Next it will be housing/mortgages to be met by oceans of free money.
On this matter solutions seem more distant.
Effectively, we are in a world where the major central banks - certainly the Fed, BoE, Bank of Japan and the Bank of China - are practicing Modern Monetary Theory to a nth degree. There is an argument for saying it worked for approaching 15 years. We are now about to see whether it works under these circumstances.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
BTW, one of the better Ukrainian war twitters is from Alexander Kamyshin, who I believe is head of the Ukrainian railways. It casts a little light away from the immediate frontlines, to show what the non-solders are doing to try to keep the country running.
I notice that renewables are on 62% at the moment. There must be at least one energy company that making a heap of money charging the gas rate for wind and solar.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
Which ‘people’ would these be I wonder? The Sioux or Zoroastrians, or Rangers supporters perhaps?
What is with the KCMG bollocks? Is he allowed to advertise himself in that way?
Since if he were one the correct form of address would be 'Sir [Name] KG' I imagine he probably is. It would be like referring to yourself as the Supreme Duke and Earl Marshall of the Wash and Humber. It is a non-existent title so has no meaning.
I have edited that because of course KCMG is Michael and George, not the Garter.
More to the point, a little research confirms there are no 'Knight Commanders' in the Garter. They are 'Knight Companions.' It's the other orders have Knight Commanders. So it's a totally made up title.
Why would he do it? I don't know, but I'm guessing because he's a tool. This would be in character with much of his career.
Just had a look at his twitter feed. Completely lost down an anti-vax rabbit hole of paranoia.
Which ‘people’ would these be I wonder? The Sioux or Zoroastrians, or Rangers supporters perhaps?
What is with the KCMG bollocks? Is he allowed to advertise himself in that way?
Since if he were one the correct form of address would be 'Sir [Name] KG' I imagine he probably is. It would be like referring to yourself as the Supreme Duke and Earl Marshall of the Wash and Humber. It is a non-existent title so has no meaning.
I have edited that because of course KCMG is Michael and George, not the Garter.
More to the point, a little research confirms there are no 'Knight Commanders' in the Garter. They are 'Knight Companions.' It's the other orders have Knight Commanders. So it's a totally made up title.
Why would he do it? I don't know, but I'm guessing because he's a tool. This would be in character with much of his career.
Just had a look at his twitter feed. Completely lost down an anti-vax rabbit hole of paranoia.
Was he ever taken seriously?
I believe a PBer (or several depending on how you interpret PB identities) was quite pally with him. Thankfully that PBer is not prone to going down conspiracy theory rabbit holes.
the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
IMO the big question facing Putin is the following: if he automagically 'wins' all of Ukraine today, how does he stop all the economic sanctions that are massively limiting his country's strength? The west won't just say: "Oh well, he's won, we'd better just lift everything!" as they well know Putin will do the same with your fair country and others.
Russia has spent decades getting vast amount of treasure from oil and gas. They will now be seen around the world as a massively unreliable supplier, untrustworthy. They will sell oil and gas, but at nowhere near the quantities they did before, or on the favourable conditions. Europe will find alternative supplies and move towards other, hopefully greener, forms of supply.
There is now no way that Russia ends this war stronger than it was before February this year. It will be a diminished country, in terms of its military, its world standing, and most importantly, the lives of its own citizens. A pariah.
The only way out of this is to withdraw from Ukraine - at the very least to its pre-February borders - and admit defeat. Then, slowly over time, sanctions can be withdrawn. But I doubt Germany et al will be taking long-term energy contracts out with them, and western companies will be very hesitant to invest in the country.
Continuing the escalation will only weaken Russia, as well as imperilling the world. And that's what worries me: as I've been saying for years, Putin is not interested in making Russia stronger. He is only interested in bringing us down to his level.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
Very good analysis @cicero mainly because I'm in total agreement with it but also because it is spot on.
The bed wetting from the types on here reliving their 1980s under the covers nightmares is a sight to behold. God knows what would happen if they had to face the night and fury of Liz Truss.
Liz Truss says the markets don't understand her plans.
Liz Truss thinks the energy cap caps your bill at £2500 a year - she doesn't understand her plans.
No, she doesn’t think that. That was a slip of the tongue and you know it.
Dianne Abbott didn't get any grace for a "slip of the tongue", so neither does Liz Truss. Liz Truss is a moron who doesn't know what she's doing.
Fair point. My question is this - do you think Truss thinks the bills are capped at £2500? I don’t, but sadly the way the cap has been reported has confused a lot of people.
As usual, Martin Lewis is the only main source who treats people like adults.
1. Economically, the post from @williamglenn quoting the Fox Business tweet suggesting the Fed is concerned about systemic risk from rising interest rates is the key economic issue. It suggests the Fed is going to scale back on interest rate increases and may even reverse some.
I've always taken the view the Fed's moves are essentially political to show US voters they are doing something on inflation (even though raising interest rates does little to cool a lot of the underlying causes). Given the midterms are next month, we may see a reverse ferret from the Fed using the excuse of market turmoil as a reason to change course.
2. Re nukes in Ukraine, bear in mind the last thing China wants is Russia using nukes as that will automatically make China's strategic positioning far worse as Japan at least and possibly S Korea and Taiwan go for nukes. This Xi will do everything to stop Putin using such weapons
Not just Asia. Every country with 20 year old fuel rods from their nuclear reactors is a chemistry class or 2 away from the bomb.
Thanks to bans and moratoria on transferring plutonium internationally, it just stacks up. Clinton had a plan to buy the world stocks up, IIRC, but the sticking point was the US purchasing the reprocessed plutonium.
Which ‘people’ would these be I wonder? The Sioux or Zoroastrians, or Rangers supporters perhaps?
What is with the KCMG bollocks? Is he allowed to advertise himself in that way?
Since if he were one the correct form of address would be 'Sir [Name] KG' I imagine he probably is. It would be like referring to yourself as the Supreme Duke and Earl Marshall of the Wash and Humber. It is a non-existent title so has no meaning.
I have edited that because of course KCMG is Michael and George, not the Garter.
More to the point, a little research confirms there are no 'Knight Commanders' in the Garter. They are 'Knight Companions.' It's the other orders have Knight Commanders. So it's a totally made up title.
Why would he do it? I don't know, but I'm guessing because he's a tool. This would be in character with much of his career.
Just had a look at his twitter feed. Completely lost down an anti-vax rabbit hole of paranoia.
Was he ever taken seriously?
To be fair there are respected doctors like Dr Aseem Malhotra now coming out saying the vax is harmful
The absolute obscenity of making the poorest fund tax cuts for the richest is the end game of the Brexit chosen by the zealots and ideologues who now run this country. It will be accompanied by environmental degradation and significant further reductions in individual rights and freedoms. This is fundamentalism and like all fundamentalism it is profoundly harmful, so must be defeated.
It was always the end-game for the right wing Tory Brexit faction. They were also smart enough to know that their vision could never win on its own so they temporarily hitched their wagon to the Farage/UKIP anti-immigration faction to get over the first hurdle.
Once the vote was won all they had to do was manoeuvre themselves into control which they have managed to do courtesy of 80,000 aged clueless Tory members.
At least we will now witness this right-wing wet-dream in action and if the initial reaction is anything to go by it will shred its credibility for decades to come. With any luck it will eventually take Brexit down with it as the penny finally drops that these are the very same idiots that promised them the "sunlit uplands" and "levelling up".
Which ‘people’ would these be I wonder? The Sioux or Zoroastrians, or Rangers supporters perhaps?
Do Dynamo and his BA obsessed friends count?
I work for the people behind the Illuminati, who are behind the Zeta Reticulans, who in turn are in charge of the Lizard Men.
The Chief Lizard frequently apologises about WWI and 2.
It is a complicated story, involving a junior lizard, a time machine and a meeting a mad bloke eating oysters on his own at a second rate hotel. And a Moroccan black cab driver in London.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
It's not nonsense because if the Tories had gone in to the last election spelling out what they have done since Truss became PM they would have lost by the sort of margins the polls are now indicating.
MPs are elected They chose a PM. After that the manifesto can be ignored as so often it is. Labour are as equally guilty as the Tories of doing things that they said they would not. Suck it up.
Which ‘people’ would these be I wonder? The Sioux or Zoroastrians, or Rangers supporters perhaps?
What is with the KCMG bollocks? Is he allowed to advertise himself in that way?
Since if he were one the correct form of address would be 'Sir [Name] KG' I imagine he probably is. It would be like referring to yourself as the Supreme Duke and Earl Marshall of the Wash and Humber. It is a non-existent title so has no meaning.
I have edited that because of course KCMG is Michael and George, not the Garter.
More to the point, a little research confirms there are no 'Knight Commanders' in the Garter. They are 'Knight Companions.' It's the other orders have Knight Commanders. So it's a totally made up title.
Why would he do it? I don't know, but I'm guessing because he's a tool. This would be in character with much of his career.
Just had a look at his twitter feed. Completely lost down an anti-vax rabbit hole of paranoia.
Was he ever taken seriously?
To be fair there are respected doctors like Dr Aseem Malhotra now coming out saying the vax is harmful
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
Very good analysis @cicero mainly because I'm in total agreement with it but also because it is spot on.
The bed wetting from the types on here reliving their 1980s under the covers nightmares is a sight to behold. God knows what would happen if they had to face the night and fury of Liz Truss.
Well, these films packed a punch.
I'm not very worried about nuclear war today. I suspect that Russia's nukes are more of a danger to Russia than to us.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
An excellent post and I find it difficult to disagree with most of it. My only concern is the collapse of the Russian regime and what replaces it. Whilst I hope for a Russian spring, a democratic revival and a welcome return to being an important partner, I fear if done wrong we get a regime even more reactionary than Putin’s.
Speaking of education budgets, one third of teacher training providers are going to be closed. Not because they are bad, but because the government doesn't like them.
Which ‘people’ would these be I wonder? The Sioux or Zoroastrians, or Rangers supporters perhaps?
What is with the KCMG bollocks? Is he allowed to advertise himself in that way?
Since if he were one the correct form of address would be 'Sir [Name] KG' I imagine he probably is. It would be like referring to yourself as the Supreme Duke and Earl Marshall of the Wash and Humber. It is a non-existent title so has no meaning.
I have edited that because of course KCMG is Michael and George, not the Garter.
More to the point, a little research confirms there are no 'Knight Commanders' in the Garter. They are 'Knight Companions.' It's the other orders have Knight Commanders. So it's a totally made up title.
Why would he do it? I don't know, but I'm guessing because he's a tool. This would be in character with much of his career.
Just had a look at his twitter feed. Completely lost down an anti-vax rabbit hole of paranoia.
Was he ever taken seriously?
To be fair there are respected doctors like Dr Aseem Malhotra now coming out saying the vax is harmful
"Malhotra's views on diet and health have been criticized by the British Heart Foundation as "misleading and wrong", and his public questioning of the need ever to use statins has been condemned as a danger to public health."
"During the COVID-19 pandemic Malhotra published a book called The 21-Day Immunity Plan[11] making claims that following the diet could quickly help people reduce their risk from the virus; such claims are not backed by medical research evidence."
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
It's not nonsense because if the Tories had gone in to the last election spelling out what they have done since Truss became PM they would have lost by the sort of margins the polls are now indicating.
MPs are elected They chose a PM. After that the manifesto can be ignored as so often it is. Labour are as equally guilty as the Tories of doing things that they said they would not. Suck it up.
Labour bankrupted the economy... there is no money left.... that wasnt in the manifesto...
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
An excellent post and I find it difficult to disagree with most of it. My only concern is the collapse of the Russian regime and what replaces it. Whilst I hope for a Russian spring, a democratic revival and a welcome return to being an important partner, I fear if done wrong we get a regime even more reactionary than Putin’s.
Does anyone know if Putin truly is sick as said a few months ago or is that just a rumour
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
Not for this. None of it. They said completely different stuff at that GE, hence there isn't a mandate. Clearly governments have to be flexible so a manifesto can not be sacrosanct , but to do the complete opposite of what you say under these circumstances is beyond the pale.
PS I don't know whether you noticed but the other day I responded to one of your posts positively. I agreed with what you said, primarily I was able to do so because you actually said something rather than just bitching.
Can you see the difference between a post that says 'nonsense' and one that says 'Democratic consent was given at the GE'
The first is just a negative waste of time, the second had content. Why didn't you say the 2nd in the first place. We might not agree with it, but it has value. The former didn't have any value whatsoever.
The absolute obscenity of making the poorest fund tax cuts for the richest is the end game of the Brexit chosen by the zealots and ideologues who now run this country. It will be accompanied by environmental degradation and significant further reductions in individual rights and freedoms. This is fundamentalism and like all fundamentalism it is profoundly harmful, so must be defeated.
It was always the end-game for the right wing Tory Brexit faction. They were also smart enough to know that their vision could never win on its own so they temporarily hitched their wagon to the Farage/UKIP anti-immigration faction to get over the first hurdle.
Once the vote was won all they had to do was manoeuvre themselves into control which they have managed to do courtesy of 80,000 aged clueless Tory members.
At least we will now witness this right-wing wet-dream in action and if the initial reaction is anything to go by it will shred its credibility for decades to come. With any luck it will eventually take Brexit down with it as the penny finally drops that these are the very same idiots that promised them the "sunlit uplands" and "levelling up".
The problem with this theory is that Liz Truss was a Remainer, and she's only in power because Boris Johnson was brought down in large part because of hysteria orchestrated by opponents of Brexit as well as the miscalculation of Rishi Sunak and his supporters.
Which ‘people’ would these be I wonder? The Sioux or Zoroastrians, or Rangers supporters perhaps?
What is with the KCMG bollocks? Is he allowed to advertise himself in that way?
Since if he were one the correct form of address would be 'Sir [Name] KG' I imagine he probably is. It would be like referring to yourself as the Supreme Duke and Earl Marshall of the Wash and Humber. It is a non-existent title so has no meaning.
I have edited that because of course KCMG is Michael and George, not the Garter.
More to the point, a little research confirms there are no 'Knight Commanders' in the Garter. They are 'Knight Companions.' It's the other orders have Knight Commanders. So it's a totally made up title.
Why would he do it? I don't know, but I'm guessing because he's a tool. This would be in character with much of his career.
Just had a look at his twitter feed. Completely lost down an anti-vax rabbit hole of paranoia.
Was he ever taken seriously?
To be fair there are respected doctors like Dr Aseem Malhotra now coming out saying the vax is harmful
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.l
IMO the big question facing Putin is the following: if he automagically 'wins' all of Ukraine today, how does he stop all the economic sanctions that are massively limiting his country's strength? The west won't just say: "Oh well, he's won, we'd better just lift everything!" as they well know Putin will do the same with your fair country and others.
Russia has spent decades getting vast amount of treasure from oil and gas. They will now be seen around the world as a massively unreliable supplier, untrustworthy. They will sell oil and gas, but at nowhere near the quantities they did before, or on the favourable conditions. Europe will find alternative supplies and move towards other, hopefully greener, forms of supply.
There is now no way that Russia ends this war stronger than it was before February this year. It will be a diminished country, in terms of its military, its world standing, and most importantly, the lives of its own citizens. A pariah.
The only way out of this is to withdraw from Ukraine - at the very least to its pre-February borders - and admit defeat. Then, slowly over time, sanctions can be withdrawn. But I doubt Germany et al will be taking long-term energy contracts out with them, and western companies will be very hesitant to invest in the country.
Continuing the escalation will only weaken Russia, as well as imperilling the world. And that's what worries me: as I've been saying for years, Putin is not interested in making Russia stronger. He is only interested in bringing us down to his level.
Putin might but there's plenty in his cohort who won't. If the West has been smart, it's been making it clear to some of the cohorts that getting rid of Putin would be seen as a big plus in their favour.
Which ‘people’ would these be I wonder? The Sioux or Zoroastrians, or Rangers supporters perhaps?
What is with the KCMG bollocks? Is he allowed to advertise himself in that way?
Since if he were one the correct form of address would be 'Sir [Name] KG' I imagine he probably is. It would be like referring to yourself as the Supreme Duke and Earl Marshall of the Wash and Humber. It is a non-existent title so has no meaning.
I have edited that because of course KCMG is Michael and George, not the Garter.
More to the point, a little research confirms there are no 'Knight Commanders' in the Garter. They are 'Knight Companions.' It's the other orders have Knight Commanders. So it's a totally made up title.
Why would he do it? I don't know, but I'm guessing because he's a tool. This would be in character with much of his career.
Just had a look at his twitter feed. Completely lost down an anti-vax rabbit hole of paranoia.
Was he ever taken seriously?
To be fair there are respected doctors like Dr Aseem Malhotra now coming out saying the vax is harmful
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
IMO the big question facing Putin is the following: if he automagically 'wins' all of Ukraine today, how does he stop all the economic sanctions that are massively limiting his country's strength? The west won't just say: "Oh well, he's won, we'd better just lift everything!" as they well know Putin will do the same with your fair country and others.
Russia has spent decades getting vast amount of treasure from oil and gas. They will now be seen around the world as a massively unreliable supplier, untrustworthy. They will sell oil and gas, but at nowhere near the quantities they did before, or on the favourable conditions. Europe will find alternative supplies and move towards other, hopefully greener, forms of supply.
There is now no way that Russia ends this war stronger than it was before February this year. It will be a diminished country, in terms of its military, its world standing, and most importantly, the lives of its own citizens. A pariah.
The only way out of this is to withdraw from Ukraine - at the very least to its pre-February borders - and admit defeat. Then, slowly over time, sanctions can be withdrawn. But I doubt Germany et al will be taking long-term energy contracts out with them, and western companies will be very hesitant to invest in the country.
Continuing the escalation will only weaken Russia, as well as imperilling the world. And that's what worries me: as I've been saying for years, Putin is not interested in making Russia stronger. He is only interested in bringing us down to his level.
In short: Yes to most of that. It will take a very long time for Russia´s neighbours not to fear and hate them, but with the scale of the economic and demographic collapse no beginning, the outlook is truly grim, even if they withdrew today. Even if sanctions were lifted, the de facto boycott will continue. Who wants anything to do with a bunch of murderers, torturers and rapists, who laugh when the threaten nuclear megadeath to the whole world?
Russia will have to face the same moral regeneration as Germany after 1945, and that is a process that takes generations.
TLDR; the things you think are beyond the pale morally, are to another person the only moral answer.
The usual conclusion from the book is that we should be more understanding of others’ political positions - more often than we think our opponents genuinely believe in the moral purpose of what they are doing.
In the case of the extremists in government, I feel there is also another conclusion to draw. If you are weird enough, you can find almost any outcome the ‘moral’ one (cf gulags under communism). So one should be deeply suspicious of one’s own moral certainties.
Given what others have posted about Truss in the last few hours, I’m not sure she will be open to that conclusion though.
I've not read it (although will now add it to the pile), but I did write this a few months ago on Facebook:
What a lot of bollocks.
This sanctimonious arsehole (bet he's a Dem) needs to mind his own business.
One techie friend of mine has always said that it's a feature, not a bug, of social media, that it generates hate.
One (and I have been guilty of this, and try to correct it) can end up saying things one would never dream of saying to another person in real life, and never dream of writing, if putting pen to paper.
Which ‘people’ would these be I wonder? The Sioux or Zoroastrians, or Rangers supporters perhaps?
What is with the KCMG bollocks? Is he allowed to advertise himself in that way?
Since if he were one the correct form of address would be 'Sir [Name] KG' I imagine he probably is. It would be like referring to yourself as the Supreme Duke and Earl Marshall of the Wash and Humber. It is a non-existent title so has no meaning.
I have edited that because of course KCMG is Michael and George, not the Garter.
More to the point, a little research confirms there are no 'Knight Commanders' in the Garter. They are 'Knight Companions.' It's the other orders have Knight Commanders. So it's a totally made up title.
Why would he do it? I don't know, but I'm guessing because he's a tool. This would be in character with much of his career.
Just had a look at his twitter feed. Completely lost down an anti-vax rabbit hole of paranoia.
Was he ever taken seriously?
To be fair there are respected doctors like Dr Aseem Malhotra now coming out saying the vax is harmful
Calling Aseem Malhotra a 'respected doctor' would be like calling Richard Carrier a 'respected historian.' He is a crank who happens to have qualifications.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
Not for this. None of it. They said completely different stuff at that GE, hence there isn't a mandate. Clearly governments have to be flexible so a manifesto can not be sacrosanct , but to do the complete opposite of what you say under these circumstances is beyond the pale.
PS I don't know whether you noticed but the other day I responded to one of your posts positively. I agreed with what you said, primarily I was able to do so because you actually said something rather than just bitching.
Can you see the difference between a post that says 'nonsense' and one that says 'Democratic consent was given at the GE'
The first is just a negative waste of time, the second had content. Why didn't you say the 2nd in the first place. We might not agree with it, but it has value. The former didn't have any value whatsoever.
Why don't you just mind your own business. I write what I want. You are not my overseer. Nor are you there to mark my posts.Go away and stop stalking me.
Speaking of education budgets, one third of teacher training providers are going to be closed. Not because they are bad, but because the government doesn't like them.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
Very good analysis @cicero mainly because I'm in total agreement with it but also because it is spot on.
The bed wetting from the types on here reliving their 1980s under the covers nightmares is a sight to behold. God knows what would happen if they had to face the night and fury of Liz Truss.
Well, these films packed a punch.
I'm not very worried about nuclear war today. I suspect that Russia's nukes are more of a danger to Russia than to us.
Threads was a superb film.
However, if Russia was going to use a WMD, the time of most danger was post the retreat from Kyiv. Things are too far down the line
I still remember going to bed in late October 1962, thinking that I might not quite reach my teens, my thirteenth birthday not being until January.
As always, we muddled through and since then, I've treated doom-sayers with a little contempt. If it's being foreseen, it probably won't happen. It's the unforseen you need to worry about.
Global warning? A piece of piss. Nuckear war? It won't happen. A large asteroid? We can probably knock it off-course.
A complete f*ck-up? Always possible, but no point worrying about. As for a financial misadventure? Put it into context. What is this life if full of care ...
To be fair I also thought I wouldn’t reach my teens because I was convinced a T-Rex was going to eat me after watching Jurassic Park
Why would a t-rex watch Jurassic Park?
A T. rex would be horrified at Jurassic Park showing its peers without their usual feathery covering.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
An excellent post and I find it difficult to disagree with most of it. My only concern is the collapse of the Russian regime and what replaces it. Whilst I hope for a Russian spring, a democratic revival and a welcome return to being an important partner, I fear if done wrong we get a regime even more reactionary than Putin’s.
Russian nationalism is heavily invested in the mighty power of its military. With that discredited and comprehensively defeated in the field and the economy on the carpet it is difficult to see what it shifts into. A period of chaos, I suspect.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
It's not nonsense because if the Tories had gone in to the last election spelling out what they have done since Truss became PM they would have lost by the sort of margins the polls are now indicating.
MPs are elected They chose a PM. After that the manifesto can be ignored as so often it is. Labour are as equally guilty as the Tories of doing things that they said they would not. Suck it up.
Labour bankrupted the economy... there is no money left.... that wasnt in the manifesto...
You are mixing up the consequences of a manifesto and carrying out the manifesto.
You can't just ignore the manifesto (well you can but it has consequences) The Salisbury Convention has just a little say on that matter.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
IMO the big question facing Putin is the following: if he automagically 'wins' all of Ukraine today, how does he stop all the economic sanctions that are massively limiting his country's strength? The west won't just say: "Oh well, he's won, we'd better just lift everything!" as they well know Putin will do the same with your fair country and others.
Russia has spent decades getting vast amount of treasure from oil and gas. They will now be seen around the world as a massively unreliable supplier, untrustworthy. They will sell oil and gas, but at nowhere near the quantities they did before, or on the favourable conditions. Europe will find alternative supplies and move towards other, hopefully greener, forms of supply.
There is now no way that Russia ends this war stronger than it was before February this year. It will be a diminished country, in terms of its military, its world standing, and most importantly, the lives of its own citizens. A pariah.
The only way out of this is to withdraw from Ukraine - at the very least to its pre-February borders - and admit defeat. Then, slowly over time, sanctions can be withdrawn. But I doubt Germany et al will be taking long-term energy contracts out with them, and western companies will be very hesitant to invest in the country.
Continuing the escalation will only weaken Russia, as well as imperilling the world. And that's what worries me: as I've been saying for years, Putin is not interested in making Russia stronger. He is only interested in bringing us down to his level.
In short: Yes to most of that. It will take a very long time for Russia´s neighbours not to fear and hate them, but with the scale of the economic and demographic collapse no beginning, the outlook is truly grim, even if they withdrew today. Even if sanctions were lifted, the de facto boycott will continue. Who wants anything to do with a bunch of murderers, torturers and rapists, who laugh when the threaten nuclear megadeath to the whole world?
Russia will have to face the same moral regeneration as Germany after 1945, and that is a process that takes generations.
I don't think Putin and his clique are in the same league of evil as Hitler and his clique.
They're still pretty evil.
It was very hard for Germany, simply because of how vile the Nazis were. But, it was also easier, because they were such an outlier. Germany, pre-Nazi, was a prosperous, law-abiding, civilised country, with strong civic institutions. Russia doesn't really have any of that. Russia has always been a kleptocracy, since the time of the Mongol invasions. Without the Mongols, Russia today would probably be Scandinavian.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
Very good analysis @cicero mainly because I'm in total agreement with it but also because it is spot on.
The bed wetting from the types on here reliving their 1980s under the covers nightmares is a sight to behold. God knows what would happen if they had to face the night and fury of Liz Truss.
Well, these films packed a punch.
I'm not very worried about nuclear war today. I suspect that Russia's nukes are more of a danger to Russia than to us.
I first watched Threads in the early 2010s, when there appeared to be little prospect of nuclear war, and it utterly disturbed me then.
So watching it now is not, I fear, particularly well advised.
It is however also worth noting that it, like most of its cold-war bedfellows, do go for pretty much the bleakest representation of the aftermath of an all out nuclear war that they can (understandably). On a similar note, back in the day the Soviet Union had thousands of missiles spare that it could hit the UK with, if the goal was obliteration they could manage it. Any strike nowadays would be significant but as a poster mentioned, yesterday necessarily limited because there’s likely much fewer operational missiles to go round, and you need a decent chunk to knock out the USA.
Not that I relish the chance of finding out mind, just treat Threads for what it is - fiction, and realise that there is still a reason, in 2022, why MAD hasn’t happened yet despite tens of thousands of nukes being pointed at every population centre in the world (pretty much) for most of the Cold War.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
Very good analysis @cicero mainly because I'm in total agreement with it but also because it is spot on.
The bed wetting from the types on here reliving their 1980s under the covers nightmares is a sight to behold. God knows what would happen if they had to face the night and fury of Liz Truss.
Well, these films packed a punch.
I'm not very worried about nuclear war today. I suspect that Russia's nukes are more of a danger to Russia than to us.
Tritium is $30k a gram. 5 grams or so per warhead.
Think version of those tiny metal canisters of laughing gas the kids get high on in the park…. Fits in a small pocket, easily.
At 150k a pop, how many haven’t been stolen in Putins Russia?
Apropos of nothing, I ‘enjoyed’ my second covid booster on Thursday. I had a pretty intense reaction (flu like fever etc) to my fist booster (Pfizer, after 2x AZ). Had the new moderna mRNA this time and again nasty fever for 36 hours. Not fun. But harmful? Not a lot of evidence for that.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
It's not nonsense because if the Tories had gone in to the last election spelling out what they have done since Truss became PM they would have lost by the sort of margins the polls are now indicating.
MPs are elected They chose a PM. After that the manifesto can be ignored as so often it is. Labour are as equally guilty as the Tories of doing things that they said they would not. Suck it up.
Labour bankrupted the economy... there is no money left.... that wasnt in the manifesto...
Labour bankrupted the economy due to external issues.
The tories are bankrupting the economy with their own internal games. If it was just the case of energy caps then no one would be complaining - it's utterly useless tax cuts that are the issue here....
Which ‘people’ would these be I wonder? The Sioux or Zoroastrians, or Rangers supporters perhaps?
What is with the KCMG bollocks? Is he allowed to advertise himself in that way?
Since if he were one the correct form of address would be 'Sir [Name] KG' I imagine he probably is. It would be like referring to yourself as the Supreme Duke and Earl Marshall of the Wash and Humber. It is a non-existent title so has no meaning.
I have edited that because of course KCMG is Michael and George, not the Garter.
More to the point, a little research confirms there are no 'Knight Commanders' in the Garter. They are 'Knight Companions.' It's the other orders have Knight Commanders. So it's a totally made up title.
Why would he do it? I don't know, but I'm guessing because he's a tool. This would be in character with much of his career.
Just had a look at his twitter feed. Completely lost down an anti-vax rabbit hole of paranoia.
Was he ever taken seriously?
To be fair there are respected doctors like Dr Aseem Malhotra now coming out saying the vax is harmful
The absolute obscenity of making the poorest fund tax cuts for the richest is the end game of the Brexit chosen by the zealots and ideologues who now run this country. It will be accompanied by environmental degradation and significant further reductions in individual rights and freedoms. This is fundamentalism and like all fundamentalism it is profoundly harmful, so must be defeated.
It was always the end-game for the right wing Tory Brexit faction. They were also smart enough to know that their vision could never win on its own so they temporarily hitched their wagon to the Farage/UKIP anti-immigration faction to get over the first hurdle.
Once the vote was won all they had to do was manoeuvre themselves into control which they have managed to do courtesy of 80,000 aged clueless Tory members.
At least we will now witness this right-wing wet-dream in action and if the initial reaction is anything to go by it will shred its credibility for decades to come. With any luck it will eventually take Brexit down with it as the penny finally drops that these are the very same idiots that promised them the "sunlit uplands" and "levelling up".
The problem with this theory is that Liz Truss was a Remainer, and she's only in power because Boris Johnson was brought down in large part because of hysteria orchestrated by opponents of Brexit as well as the miscalculation of Rishi Sunak and his supporters.
No, Liz Truss is / was an opportunist. She jumped on the Remain bandwagon when she thought it was going to win and leapt off it when she realise supporting Leave would be better for her career progression. You might recall she used to be anti-monarchy yet as an MP she has spent years swearing loyalty to the monarch.
She says whatever works. I very much doubt she believes in anything.
Which ‘people’ would these be I wonder? The Sioux or Zoroastrians, or Rangers supporters perhaps?
What is with the KCMG bollocks? Is he allowed to advertise himself in that way?
Since if he were one the correct form of address would be 'Sir [Name] KG' I imagine he probably is. It would be like referring to yourself as the Supreme Duke and Earl Marshall of the Wash and Humber. It is a non-existent title so has no meaning.
I have edited that because of course KCMG is Michael and George, not the Garter.
More to the point, a little research confirms there are no 'Knight Commanders' in the Garter. They are 'Knight Companions.' It's the other orders have Knight Commanders. So it's a totally made up title.
Why would he do it? I don't know, but I'm guessing because he's a tool. This would be in character with much of his career.
Just had a look at his twitter feed. Completely lost down an anti-vax rabbit hole of paranoia.
Was he ever taken seriously?
To be fair there are respected doctors like Dr Aseem Malhotra now coming out saying the vax is harmful
Calling Aseem Malhotra a 'respected doctor' would be like calling Richard Carrier a 'respected historian.' He is a crank who happens to have qualifications.
Malhotra urges a high fat low carb diet...many people agree with him on this i follow that diet myself
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
Not for this. None of it. They said completely different stuff at that GE, hence there isn't a mandate. Clearly governments have to be flexible so a manifesto can not be sacrosanct , but to do the complete opposite of what you say under these circumstances is beyond the pale.
PS I don't know whether you noticed but the other day I responded to one of your posts positively. I agreed with what you said, primarily I was able to do so because you actually said something rather than just bitching.
Can you see the difference between a post that says 'nonsense' and one that says 'Democratic consent was given at the GE'
The first is just a negative waste of time, the second had content. Why didn't you say the 2nd in the first place. We might not agree with it, but it has value. The former didn't have any value whatsoever.
Why don't you just mind your own business. I write what I want. You are not my overseer. Nor are you there to mark my posts.Go away and stop stalking me.
Can't even react positively to a positive post eh?
It is my business as this is an open forum so I will comment as I see fit (unless I get banned). If I decide to comment on your bile I will. Shame as your last few posts have been more constructive, but I see you have gone back to the crap again.
Apropos of nothing, I ‘enjoyed’ my second covid booster on Thursday. I had a pretty intense reaction (flu like fever etc) to my fist booster (Pfizer, after 2x AZ). Had the new moderna mRNA this time and again nasty fever for 36 hours. Not fun. But harmful? Not a lot of evidence for that.
Looks like a load of bollocks to me. "...this vaccine is not completely safe." No vaccine is completely safe, surely?
Edit - from wiki:
"Malhotra's views on diet and health have been criticized by the British Heart Foundation as "misleading and wrong", and his public questioning of the need ever to use statins has been condemned as a danger to public health.[10] His "Pioppi diet" was named by the British Dietetic Association as one of the "top 5 worst celeb diets to avoid in 2018".[4] During the COVID-19 pandemic Malhotra published a book called The 21-Day Immunity Plan[11] making claims that following the diet could quickly help people reduce their risk from the virus; such claims are not backed by medical research evidence.[1]"
Speaking of education budgets, one third of teacher training providers are going to be closed. Not because they are bad, but because the government doesn't like them.
Which ‘people’ would these be I wonder? The Sioux or Zoroastrians, or Rangers supporters perhaps?
What is with the KCMG bollocks? Is he allowed to advertise himself in that way?
Since if he were one the correct form of address would be 'Sir [Name] KG' I imagine he probably is. It would be like referring to yourself as the Supreme Duke and Earl Marshall of the Wash and Humber. It is a non-existent title so has no meaning.
I have edited that because of course KCMG is Michael and George, not the Garter.
More to the point, a little research confirms there are no 'Knight Commanders' in the Garter. They are 'Knight Companions.' It's the other orders have Knight Commanders. So it's a totally made up title.
Why would he do it? I don't know, but I'm guessing because he's a tool. This would be in character with much of his career.
Just had a look at his twitter feed. Completely lost down an anti-vax rabbit hole of paranoia.
Was he ever taken seriously?
To be fair there are respected doctors like Dr Aseem Malhotra now coming out saying the vax is harmful
Calling Aseem Malhotra a 'respected doctor' would be like calling Richard Carrier a 'respected historian.' He is a crank who happens to have qualifications.
Malhotra urges a high fat low carb diet...many people agree with him on this i follow that diet myself
Which ‘people’ would these be I wonder? The Sioux or Zoroastrians, or Rangers supporters perhaps?
What is with the KCMG bollocks? Is he allowed to advertise himself in that way?
Since if he were one the correct form of address would be 'Sir [Name] KG' I imagine he probably is. It would be like referring to yourself as the Supreme Duke and Earl Marshall of the Wash and Humber. It is a non-existent title so has no meaning.
I have edited that because of course KCMG is Michael and George, not the Garter.
More to the point, a little research confirms there are no 'Knight Commanders' in the Garter. They are 'Knight Companions.' It's the other orders have Knight Commanders. So it's a totally made up title.
Why would he do it? I don't know, but I'm guessing because he's a tool. This would be in character with much of his career.
Is that the real Mr Delingpole or a satirical ripoff? I find it hard to tell, not being familiar with the gent.
Apropos of nothing, I ‘enjoyed’ my second covid booster on Thursday. I had a pretty intense reaction (flu like fever etc) to my fist booster (Pfizer, after 2x AZ). Had the new moderna mRNA this time and again nasty fever for 36 hours. Not fun. But harmful? Not a lot of evidence for that.
Looks like a load of bollocks to me. "...this vaccine is not completely safe." No vaccine is completely safe, surely?
No, nothing will be completely safe, hence the wrangles we’ve had over vaccinating kids in the U.K.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
It's not nonsense because if the Tories had gone in to the last election spelling out what they have done since Truss became PM they would have lost by the sort of margins the polls are now indicating.
MPs are elected They chose a PM. After that the manifesto can be ignored as so often it is. Labour are as equally guilty as the Tories of doing things that they said they would not. Suck it up.
Labour bankrupted the economy... there is no money left.... that wasnt in the manifesto...
And they have paid the price - 12 years (so far) in opposition.
The Tories will pay the price at the next election because they have stuffed the country in a far, far worse way than Labour ever did.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
Not for this. None of it. They said completely different stuff at that GE, hence there isn't a mandate. Clearly governments have to be flexible so a manifesto can not be sacrosanct , but to do the complete opposite of what you say under these circumstances is beyond the pale.
PS I don't know whether you noticed but the other day I responded to one of your posts positively. I agreed with what you said, primarily I was able to do so because you actually said something rather than just bitching.
Can you see the difference between a post that says 'nonsense' and one that says 'Democratic consent was given at the GE'
The first is just a negative waste of time, the second had content. Why didn't you say the 2nd in the first place. We might not agree with it, but it has value. The former didn't have any value whatsoever.
Why don't you just mind your own business. I write what I want. You are not my overseer. Nor are you there to mark my posts.Go away and stop stalking me.
1/10. Unnecessarily angry and pointless, but a point for being largely mistake-free.
You haven't been stalked by KJH. Had you been so you would be as bored with it as I am .
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
It's not nonsense because if the Tories had gone in to the last election spelling out what they have done since Truss became PM they would have lost by the sort of margins the polls are now indicating.
MPs are elected They chose a PM. After that the manifesto can be ignored as so often it is. Labour are as equally guilty as the Tories of doing things that they said they would not. Suck it up.
Labour bankrupted the economy... there is no money left.... that wasnt in the manifesto...
Labour bankrupted the economy due to external issues.
The tories are bankrupting the economy with their own internal games. If it was just the case of energy caps then no one would be complaining - it's utterly useless tax cuts that are the issue here....
Useless is a matter of opinion. I think they are pointless but that's another matter.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
Not for this. None of it. They said completely different stuff at that GE, hence there isn't a mandate. Clearly governments have to be flexible so a manifesto can not be sacrosanct , but to do the complete opposite of what you say under these circumstances is beyond the pale.
PS I don't know whether you noticed but the other day I responded to one of your posts positively. I agreed with what you said, primarily I was able to do so because you actually said something rather than just bitching.
Can you see the difference between a post that says 'nonsense' and one that says 'Democratic consent was given at the GE'
The first is just a negative waste of time, the second had content. Why didn't you say the 2nd in the first place. We might not agree with it, but it has value. The former didn't have any value whatsoever.
Why don't you just mind your own business. I write what I want. You are not my overseer. Nor are you there to mark my posts.Go away and stop stalking me.
1/10. Unnecessarily angry and pointless, but a point for being largely mistake-free.
Yes, that missing question mark is a self-inflicted fail. Could have been deux points.
Apropos of nothing, I ‘enjoyed’ my second covid booster on Thursday. I had a pretty intense reaction (flu like fever etc) to my fist booster (Pfizer, after 2x AZ). Had the new moderna mRNA this time and again nasty fever for 36 hours. Not fun. But harmful? Not a lot of evidence for that.
Looks like a load of bollocks to me. "...this vaccine is not completely safe." No vaccine is completely safe, surely?
No, nothing will be completely safe, hence the wrangles we’ve had over vaccinating kids in the U.K.
Apols - I buggered up the block quotes earlier there - now sorted I hope.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
Not for this. None of it. They said completely different stuff at that GE, hence there isn't a mandate. Clearly governments have to be flexible so a manifesto can not be sacrosanct , but to do the complete opposite of what you say under these circumstances is beyond the pale.
PS I don't know whether you noticed but the other day I responded to one of your posts positively. I agreed with what you said, primarily I was able to do so because you actually said something rather than just bitching.
Can you see the difference between a post that says 'nonsense' and one that says 'Democratic consent was given at the GE'
The first is just a negative waste of time, the second had content. Why didn't you say the 2nd in the first place. We might not agree with it, but it has value. The former didn't have any value whatsoever.
TBF, though I have no time for this lot, an election in Dec 19 is pre covid, pre Ukraine, pre energy crisis and (of course) pre Brexit.
it is impossible both to elect for 5 years and expect government not to adjust to radical changes of circumstance, which these are.
That does not mean I agree with either Boris or LT.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
Not for this. None of it. They said completely different stuff at that GE, hence there isn't a mandate. Clearly governments have to be flexible so a manifesto can not be sacrosanct , but to do the complete opposite of what you say under these circumstances is beyond the pale.
PS I don't know whether you noticed but the other day I responded to one of your posts positively. I agreed with what you said, primarily I was able to do so because you actually said something rather than just bitching.
Can you see the difference between a post that says 'nonsense' and one that says 'Democratic consent was given at the GE'
The first is just a negative waste of time, the second had content. Why didn't you say the 2nd in the first place. We might not agree with it, but it has value. The former didn't have any value whatsoever.
Why don't you just mind your own business. I write what I want. You are not my overseer. Nor are you there to mark my posts.Go away and stop stalking me.
1/10. Unnecessarily angry and pointless, but a point for being largely mistake-free.
You haven't been stalked by KJH. Had you been so you would be as bored with it as I am .
And do you ever wonder why @Farooq and nobody else is?
And do you ever wonder why lots of others here comment on your posts in the same way as I do from posters ranging from the left to the right?
You only have to look at your obnoxious reply to what was a reasonably positive post to you.
Speaking of education budgets, one third of teacher training providers are going to be closed. Not because they are bad, but because the government doesn't like them.
Apropos of nothing, I ‘enjoyed’ my second covid booster on Thursday. I had a pretty intense reaction (flu like fever etc) to my fist booster (Pfizer, after 2x AZ). Had the new moderna mRNA this time and again nasty fever for 36 hours. Not fun. But harmful? Not a lot of evidence for that.
I had mine a fortnight ago. Felt slightly fragile for a day, but vaccination is supposed to provoke an immune response. It is the whole point!
Sure, post vaccine myocarditis and other side effects exist, but myocarditis etc is an even more frequent complication of the virus itself.
The infectivity is such that about 50% will now get it every year, and like flu the antigenic shift means that immunity fades. I reckon on annual boosters from now on. Anti-vaxxers can make their choice. It's their funeral.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
Not for this. None of it. They said completely different stuff at that GE, hence there isn't a mandate. Clearly governments have to be flexible so a manifesto can not be sacrosanct , but to do the complete opposite of what you say under these circumstances is beyond the pale.
PS I don't know whether you noticed but the other day I responded to one of your posts positively. I agreed with what you said, primarily I was able to do so because you actually said something rather than just bitching.
Can you see the difference between a post that says 'nonsense' and one that says 'Democratic consent was given at the GE'
The first is just a negative waste of time, the second had content. Why didn't you say the 2nd in the first place. We might not agree with it, but it has value. The former didn't have any value whatsoever.
Why don't you just mind your own business. I write what I want. You are not my overseer. Nor are you there to mark my posts.Go away and stop stalking me.
Can't even react positively to a positive post eh?
It is my business as this is an open forum so I will comment as I see fit (unless I get banned). If I decide to comment on your bile I will. Shame as your last few posts have been more constructive, but I see you have gone back to the crap again.
Give him a break, @squareroot2's world order is disintegrating before his eyes as Truss is being mad enough to give that neoliberal bollocks a try - with the inevitable disastrous consequences.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
Not for this. None of it. They said completely different stuff at that GE, hence there isn't a mandate. Clearly governments have to be flexible so a manifesto can not be sacrosanct , but to do the complete opposite of what you say under these circumstances is beyond the pale.
PS I don't know whether you noticed but the other day I responded to one of your posts positively. I agreed with what you said, primarily I was able to do so because you actually said something rather than just bitching.
Can you see the difference between a post that says 'nonsense' and one that says 'Democratic consent was given at the GE'
The first is just a negative waste of time, the second had content. Why didn't you say the 2nd in the first place. We might not agree with it, but it has value. The former didn't have any value whatsoever.
Why don't you just mind your own business. I write what I want. You are not my overseer. Nor are you there to mark my posts.Go away and stop stalking me.
1/10. Unnecessarily angry and pointless, but a point for being largely mistake-free.
You haven't been stalked by KJH. Had you been so you would be as bored with it as I am .
And do you ever wonder why @Farooq and nobody else is?
And do you ever wonder why lots of others here comment on your posts in the same way as I do from posters ranging from the left to the right?
You only have to look at your obnoxious reply to what was a reasonably positive post to you.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
IMO the big question facing Putin is the following: if he automagically 'wins' all of Ukraine today, how does he stop all the economic sanctions that are massively limiting his country's strength? The west won't just say: "Oh well, he's won, we'd better just lift everything!" as they well know Putin will do the same with your fair country and others.
Russia has spent decades getting vast amount of treasure from oil and gas. They will now be seen around the world as a massively unreliable supplier, untrustworthy. They will sell oil and gas, but at nowhere near the quantities they did before, or on the favourable conditions. Europe will find alternative supplies and move towards other, hopefully greener, forms of supply.
There is now no way that Russia ends this war stronger than it was before February this year. It will be a diminished country, in terms of its military, its world standing, and most importantly, the lives of its own citizens. A pariah.
The only way out of this is to withdraw from Ukraine - at the very least to its pre-February borders - and admit defeat. Then, slowly over time, sanctions can be withdrawn. But I doubt Germany et al will be taking long-term energy contracts out with them, and western companies will be very hesitant to invest in the country.
Continuing the escalation will only weaken Russia, as well as imperilling the world. And that's what worries me: as I've been saying for years, Putin is not interested in making Russia stronger. He is only interested in bringing us down to his level.
In short: Yes to most of that. It will take a very long time for Russia´s neighbours not to fear and hate them, but with the scale of the economic and demographic collapse no beginning, the outlook is truly grim, even if they withdrew today. Even if sanctions were lifted, the de facto boycott will continue. Who wants anything to do with a bunch of murderers, torturers and rapists, who laugh when the threaten nuclear megadeath to the whole world?
Russia will have to face the same moral regeneration as Germany after 1945, and that is a process that takes generations.
I don't think Putin and his clique are in the same league of evil as Hitler and his clique.
They're still pretty evil.
It was very hard for Germany, simply because of how vile the Nazis were. But, it was also easier, because they were such an outlier. Germany, pre-Nazi, was a prosperous, law-abiding, civilised country, with strong civic institutions. Russia doesn't really have any of that. Russia has always been a kleptocracy, since the time of the Mongol invasions. Without the Mongols, Russia today would probably be Scandinavian.
That's very arguable (on Germany, that is).
Germany always had a strong militaristic tradition and although clearly delineated, its civil institutions were actually very weak compared to the army. For example, the Reichstag under the Empire had no power over the government, and during the Weimar era the Presidency ruled without the Reichstag altogether under Article 48 on many occasions long before Hitler came to power. And the President was elected because he was an ex military commander.
Germany also always had a highly expansionist outlook, including annexing large chunks of territory from its neighbours. They launched WWI (yes, they did, that's been an argument pretty much done and dusted for 60 years ever since Fischer published his book on the subject and Ritter was caught forging and destroying documents to rebut it) very largely in the hope of annexing more territory in Poland, Belgium and France.
Without wishing to be all AJP Taylor about this, one of the more troubling features of Nazism is how many of its policies followed quite naturally from those of earlier generations of German rulers.
I was just thinking about how things may evolve. The tories seem hell bent on doubling down. The possible outcome seems to be to shore up their base of wealthy southern and rural constituencies. (although even if this is the case, they are going in to an unwise battle with them over planning reform - which makes you wonder, is there any political strategy at all?). But I wondered... looking at the regional polling that came out yesterday, what is the likelihood of an 'independent group' of red wall tory MPs forming? Could this be the end game for the current 'growth plans'?
The southern base is far, far from safe and not just due to planning but demographics - many seats' populations of young professionals priced out of London are growing in formerly solid commuter towns - and spending most of the time since the referendum taking liberal Conservatives (which many in the south are) for granted and insulting them. There maybe a similar parallel with Labour losing its northern heartlands after ignoring them for too long - they might shore it up, but these aren't the kind of policies that will help, as there are very few libertarians, and fewer still who'll put that ahead of their kids' school, NHS wait times, or a rocketing mortgage. Rather they might precipitate a far swifter collapse than Labour managed until Corbyn was fully let rip.
I still remember going to bed in late October 1962, thinking that I might not quite reach my teens, my thirteenth birthday not being until January.
As always, we muddled through and since then, I've treated doom-sayers with a little contempt. If it's being foreseen, it probably won't happen. It's the unforseen you need to worry about.
Global warning? A piece of piss. Nuckear war? It won't happen. A large asteroid? We can probably knock it off-course.
A complete f*ck-up? Always possible, but no point worrying about. As for a financial misadventure? Put it into context. What is this life if full of care ...
To be fair I also thought I wouldn’t reach my teens because I was convinced a T-Rex was going to eat me after watching Jurassic Park
Why would a t-rex watch Jurassic Park?
A T. rex would be horrified at Jurassic Park showing its peers without their usual feathery covering.
It’s fascinating how quickly Jurassic Park became out of date. Not all dinosaurs were feathered, but a significant number were. I used to have dinosaur books which pictured T-Rex standing upright, rather than the more modern horizontal positioning.
On that score Jurassic Park was out of date before it was even made - in spite of leaning heavily on the new theories that were circulating at the time about warm blooded dinosaurs. They made great use of the ideas of Bob Bakker who was one of the original proponents of the warm blooded dinosaur hypothesis and which included feathered dinosaurs. They seem to have made a conscious decision not to push things too far away from the traditional view of dinosaurs and so limited the use of feathers and fur.
They pay a direct homage to Bakker in the second film by having one of the experts who returns to the island based on him including his distinictive looks.
Just checked my memory and the film did indeed come out in 1993 by when feathers in at least some theropods (and obviously Archaeopteryx) were very much accepted. So a timelag of maybe a decade or so after Bakker's book (1975?) and the ensuing debates. Though it was also about that time (early 1990s) that the first Liaoning fossils were being discovered to reinforce the point re feathers in dinos, and in due course to extend it considerably. Very nice online talk here by Prof Mike Benton btw.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
Very good analysis @cicero mainly because I'm in total agreement with it but also because it is spot on.
The bed wetting from the types on here reliving their 1980s under the covers nightmares is a sight to behold. God knows what would happen if they had to face the night and fury of Liz Truss.
Well, these films packed a punch.
I'm not very worried about nuclear war today. I suspect that Russia's nukes are more of a danger to Russia than to us.
I first watched Threads in the early 2010s, when there appeared to be little prospect of nuclear war, and it utterly disturbed me then.
So watching it now is not, I fear, particularly well advised.
It is however also worth noting that it, like most of its cold-war bedfellows, do go for pretty much the bleakest representation of the aftermath of an all out nuclear war that they can (understandably). On a similar note, back in the day the Soviet Union had thousands of missiles spare that it could hit the UK with, if the goal was obliteration they could manage it. Any strike nowadays would be significant but as a poster mentioned, yesterday necessarily limited because there’s likely much fewer operational missiles to go round, and you need a decent chunk to knock out the USA.
Not that I relish the chance of finding out mind, just treat Threads for what it is - fiction, and realise that there is still a reason, in 2022, why MAD hasn’t happened yet despite tens of thousands of nukes being pointed at every population centre in the world (pretty much) for most of the Cold War.
The chances of nuclear annihilation depend on our evaluation of three things.
1. Is Putin mad enough to do it?
2. Will anyone in the chain of command refuse the order, or do we believe if the order is given, it will be followed?
3. Does Russia actually have the operational capability to fire its nukes?
With regard to 1, Putin is clearly behaving irrationally and has been since the start of the war. He's clearly capable of issuing the order. There is also the good kamil galeev thread on Twitter about how a tactical nuke would provoke such a response from the west, it would allow Putin to de-escalate the war, thus saving face.
As far as 2 goes, we don't know. There's a rather high chance if Putin ordered a full first strike of strategic nukes it would be refused. But battlefield nukes? We know from the M388 US Davy Crockett that these things are man portable. It's not the same process as tactical nukes. Could Putin order his generals to deploy tactical nukes on the battlefield and is there a reasonable possibility he will be obeyed? Yes, absolutely. If NATO then responds with a devastating conventional attack, e.g. sinking the Black Sea Fleet, cruise missile strikes on military targets, etc, it is very possible that leads to an escalation that sees people within the chain of command more willing to follow orders to use strategic nukes, or an accident - e.g. a cruise missile being mistaken for a nuclear first strike, leading to a response.
3. The big unknown. Having seen the state of most Russian materiel can we assume their nuclear arsenal is in a similar, poorly-maintained state? Probably. But do we want to find out?
"WORKERS in essential services will be downgraded from heroes to low-skilled by Easter if vaccinations continue at their current rate, it has been confirmed."
Speaking of education budgets, one third of teacher training providers are going to be closed. Not because they are bad, but because the government doesn't like them.
That is better than four months ago when they accidentally decided to close 100% of them through administrative incompetence.
Do they honestly think
I cut it to that because 'no' is such a simple answer.
I was talking to a friend last night, also a retired teacher. We were trying to decide whether the DfE's actions on education showed malice or mind-bending stupidity.
We came to the conclusion (a) it's impossible to say and (b) it doesn't matter an awful lot given the effect is much the same.
(For what it's worth, I suspect it's genuine ignorance coupled with intellectual laziness, typical Whitehall arrogance and complacency. Which doesn't necessarily equal stupidity but in practical terms is indistinguishable from it.)
The absolute obscenity of making the poorest fund tax cuts for the richest is the end game of the Brexit chosen by the zealots and ideologues who now run this country. It will be accompanied by environmental degradation and significant further reductions in individual rights and freedoms. This is fundamentalism and like all fundamentalism it is profoundly harmful, so must be defeated.
It was always the end-game for the right wing Tory Brexit faction. They were also smart enough to know that their vision could never win on its own so they temporarily hitched their wagon to the Farage/UKIP anti-immigration faction to get over the first hurdle.
Once the vote was won all they had to do was manoeuvre themselves into control which they have managed to do courtesy of 80,000 aged clueless Tory members.
At least we will now witness this right-wing wet-dream in action and if the initial reaction is anything to go by it will shred its credibility for decades to come. With any luck it will eventually take Brexit down with it as the penny finally drops that these are the very same idiots that promised them the "sunlit uplands" and "levelling up".
The problem with this theory is that Liz Truss was a Remainer, and she's only in power because Boris Johnson was brought down in large part because of hysteria orchestrated by opponents of Brexit as well as the miscalculation of Rishi Sunak and his supporters.
Boris was brought down by his own party because he was a lying, lazy arse and his ratings had headed south and was taking the party down with him.
Truss has the zeal of the converted and is nothing more than a puppet of ERG. To repeat myself, let's see how it plays out when voters finally see the face behind the Brexit mask.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
IMO the big question facing Putin is the following: if he automagically 'wins' all of Ukraine today, how does he stop all the economic sanctions that are massively limiting his country's strength? The west won't just say: "Oh well, he's won, we'd better just lift everything!" as they well know Putin will do the same with your fair country and others.
Russia has spent decades getting vast amount of treasure from oil and gas. They will now be seen around the world as a massively unreliable supplier, untrustworthy. They will sell oil and gas, but at nowhere near the quantities they did before, or on the favourable conditions. Europe will find alternative supplies and move towards other, hopefully greener, forms of supply.
There is now no way that Russia ends this war stronger than it was before February this year. It will be a diminished country, in terms of its military, its world standing, and most importantly, the lives of its own citizens. A pariah.
The only way out of this is to withdraw from Ukraine - at the very least to its pre-February borders - and admit defeat. Then, slowly over time, sanctions can be withdrawn. But I doubt Germany et al will be taking long-term energy contracts out with them, and western companies will be very hesitant to invest in the country.
Continuing the escalation will only weaken Russia, as well as imperilling the world. And that's what worries me: as I've been saying for years, Putin is not interested in making Russia stronger. He is only interested in bringing us down to his level.
In short: Yes to most of that. It will take a very long time for Russia´s neighbours not to fear and hate them, but with the scale of the economic and demographic collapse no beginning, the outlook is truly grim, even if they withdrew today. Even if sanctions were lifted, the de facto boycott will continue. Who wants anything to do with a bunch of murderers, torturers and rapists, who laugh when the threaten nuclear megadeath to the whole world?
Russia will have to face the same moral regeneration as Germany after 1945, and that is a process that takes generations.
I don't think Putin and his clique are in the same league of evil as Hitler and his clique.
They're still pretty evil.
It was very hard for Germany, simply because of how vile the Nazis were. But, it was also easier, because they were such an outlier. Germany, pre-Nazi, was a prosperous, law-abiding, civilised country, with strong civic institutions. Russia doesn't really have any of that. Russia has always been a kleptocracy, since the time of the Mongol invasions. Without the Mongols, Russia today would probably be Scandinavian.
Part of the problem is that there has been no moral recovery from Stalin, who really was just as evil as Hitler.
Instead of atoning for the crimes of Stalinism and Communism, Putin has mostly repeated those crimes. This is why I use the word "moral" crisis. There has been no truth and reconciliation, but instead a glorification of the KGB and other criminals. Unless this is ended, Russia can never recover. I have many Russophone friends who now refuse to engage with any Russian culture because whatever the glories of Bulgakov, Tshaikovsky etc, everything is overlaid with the continuing brutality of thugs like Stalin, Beria and indeed Putin. As one said, who cares about the ballet when they are rebuilding the GULAG? The collapse of Russian soft power is just as remarkable as any other part of this Russian disaster.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
Not for this. None of it. They said completely different stuff at that GE, hence there isn't a mandate. Clearly governments have to be flexible so a manifesto can not be sacrosanct , but to do the complete opposite of what you say under these circumstances is beyond the pale.
PS I don't know whether you noticed but the other day I responded to one of your posts positively. I agreed with what you said, primarily I was able to do so because you actually said something rather than just bitching.
Can you see the difference between a post that says 'nonsense' and one that says 'Democratic consent was given at the GE'
The first is just a negative waste of time, the second had content. Why didn't you say the 2nd in the first place. We might not agree with it, but it has value. The former didn't have any value whatsoever.
Why don't you just mind your own business. I write what I want. You are not my overseer. Nor are you there to mark my posts.Go away and stop stalking me.
1/10. Unnecessarily angry and pointless, but a point for being largely mistake-free.
You haven't been stalked by KJH. Had you been so you would be as bored with it as I am .
And do you ever wonder why @Farooq and nobody else is?
And do you ever wonder why lots of others here comment on your posts in the same way as I do from posters ranging from the left to the right?
You only have to look at your obnoxious reply to what was a reasonably positive post to you.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
IMO the big question facing Putin is the following: if he automagically 'wins' all of Ukraine today, how does he stop all the economic sanctions that are massively limiting his country's strength? The west won't just say: "Oh well, he's won, we'd better just lift everything!" as they well know Putin will do the same with your fair country and others.
Russia has spent decades getting vast amount of treasure from oil and gas. They will now be seen around the world as a massively unreliable supplier, untrustworthy. They will sell oil and gas, but at nowhere near the quantities they did before, or on the favourable conditions. Europe will find alternative supplies and move towards other, hopefully greener, forms of supply.
There is now no way that Russia ends this war stronger than it was before February this year. It will be a diminished country, in terms of its military, its world standing, and most importantly, the lives of its own citizens. A pariah.
The only way out of this is to withdraw from Ukraine - at the very least to its pre-February borders - and admit defeat. Then, slowly over time, sanctions can be withdrawn. But I doubt Germany et al will be taking long-term energy contracts out with them, and western companies will be very hesitant to invest in the country.
Continuing the escalation will only weaken Russia, as well as imperilling the world. And that's what worries me: as I've been saying for years, Putin is not interested in making Russia stronger. He is only interested in bringing us down to his level.
In short: Yes to most of that. It will take a very long time for Russia´s neighbours not to fear and hate them, but with the scale of the economic and demographic collapse no beginning, the outlook is truly grim, even if they withdrew today. Even if sanctions were lifted, the de facto boycott will continue. Who wants anything to do with a bunch of murderers, torturers and rapists, who laugh when the threaten nuclear megadeath to the whole world?
Russia will have to face the same moral regeneration as Germany after 1945, and that is a process that takes generations.
I don't think Putin and his clique are in the same league of evil as Hitler and his clique.
They're still pretty evil.
It was very hard for Germany, simply because of how vile the Nazis were. But, it was also easier, because they were such an outlier. Germany, pre-Nazi, was a prosperous, law-abiding, civilised country, with strong civic institutions. Russia doesn't really have any of that. Russia has always been a kleptocracy, since the time of the Mongol invasions. Without the Mongols, Russia today would probably be Scandinavian.
That's very arguable (on Germany, that is).
Germany always had a strong militaristic tradition and although clearly delineated, its civil institutions were actually very weak compared to the army. For example, the Reichstag under the Empire had no power over the government, and during the Weimar era the Presidency ruled without the Reichstag altogether under Article 48 on many occasions long before Hitler came to power. And the President was elected because he was an ex military commander.
Germany also always had a highly expansionist outlook, including annexing large chunks of territory from its neighbours. They launched WWI (yes, they did, that's been an argument pretty much done and dusted for 60 years ever since Fischer published his book on the subject and Ritter was caught forging and destroying documents to rebut it) very largely in the hope of annexing more territory in Poland, Belgium and France.
Without wishing to be all AJP Taylor about this, one of the more troubling features of Nazism is how many of its policies followed quite naturally from those of earlier generations of German rulers.
But Germany's expansionist impulses were much more in line with the Zeitgeist. How does Russia's behaviour today stack up against what is expected of states in the third decade of this century? Context matters somewhat.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
Very good analysis @cicero mainly because I'm in total agreement with it but also because it is spot on.
The bed wetting from the types on here reliving their 1980s under the covers nightmares is a sight to behold. God knows what would happen if they had to face the night and fury of Liz Truss.
Well, these films packed a punch.
I'm not very worried about nuclear war today. I suspect that Russia's nukes are more of a danger to Russia than to us.
Tritium is $30k a gram. 5 grams or so per warhead.
Think version of those tiny metal canisters of laughing gas the kids get high on in the park…. Fits in a small pocket, easily.
At 150k a pop, how many haven’t been stolen in Putins Russia?
More importantly, Tritium has a short half-life of about 12 years. I wonder how good the replenishment schedules are?
The absolute obscenity of making the poorest fund tax cuts for the richest is the end game of the Brexit chosen by the zealots and ideologues who now run this country. It will be accompanied by environmental degradation and significant further reductions in individual rights and freedoms. This is fundamentalism and like all fundamentalism it is profoundly harmful, so must be defeated.
It was always the end-game for the right wing Tory Brexit faction. They were also smart enough to know that their vision could never win on its own so they temporarily hitched their wagon to the Farage/UKIP anti-immigration faction to get over the first hurdle.
Once the vote was won all they had to do was manoeuvre themselves into control which they have managed to do courtesy of 80,000 aged clueless Tory members.
At least we will now witness this right-wing wet-dream in action and if the initial reaction is anything to go by it will shred its credibility for decades to come. With any luck it will eventually take Brexit down with it as the penny finally drops that these are the very same idiots that promised them the "sunlit uplands" and "levelling up".
The problem with this theory is that Liz Truss was a Remainer, and she's only in power because Boris Johnson was brought down in large part because of hysteria orchestrated by opponents of Brexit as well as the miscalculation of Rishi Sunak and his supporters.
Boris was brought down by his own party because he was a lying, lazy arse and his ratings had headed south and was taking the party down with him.
Truss has the zeal of the converted and is nothing more than a puppet of ERG. To repeat myself, let's see how it plays out when voters finally see the face behind the Brexit mask.
I think it very likely this government will take down Brexit with it. Certainly the "Singapore on Thames" version, but also the Red Wall Autarky version too. Over the next 10 years we will move ever closer to the Single Market, to the point where Rejoin to have a say in the rules becomes the obvious next step.
TLDR; the things you think are beyond the pale morally, are to another person the only moral answer.
The usual conclusion from the book is that we should be more understanding of others’ political positions - more often than we think our opponents genuinely believe in the moral purpose of what they are doing.
In the case of the extremists in government, I feel there is also another conclusion to draw. If you are weird enough, you can find almost any outcome the ‘moral’ one (cf gulags under communism). So one should be deeply suspicious of one’s own moral certainties.
Given what others have posted about Truss in the last few hours, I’m not sure she will be open to that conclusion though.
I've not read it (although will now add it to the pile), but I did write this a few months ago on Facebook:
What a lot of bollocks.
This sanctimonious arsehole (bet he's a Dem) needs to mind his own business.
One techie friend of mine has always said that it's a feature, not a bug, of social media, that it generates hate.
One (and I have been guilty of this, and try to correct it) can end up saying things one would never dream of saying to another person in real life, and never dream of writing, if putting pen to paper.
That is surely true. On my one and only visit so far to a PB social I met a few posters I had sparred with several times, not always politely. They all turned out to be terribly nice people, somewhat disappointingly.
Regarding indicators of when to drop everything and bug out, other possibilities as well as those already mentioned include
- a provocation against (or ascribed to) Russian speakers in NATO countries (especially where geographically concentrated, such as in Ida-Viru in Estonia, which adjoins the Russian border, but also in Latvia), or in non-NATO countries such as Moldova (Transnistria), or
- a provocation in territories annexed by Russia in 1945 such as Vyborg (formerly in Finland) or Kaliningrad (surrounded on land by NATO members).
A terrorist attack in any of these places could have horrendous knock-on effects. Or not even a terrorist attack. In Estonia see a couple of incidents involving statues.
Lyman and the rest of the front line are scary enough, but what's also scary is the volatility all over the place, with several possible trigger points across Europe.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
Not for this. None of it. They said completely different stuff at that GE, hence there isn't a mandate. Clearly governments have to be flexible so a manifesto can not be sacrosanct , but to do the complete opposite of what you say under these circumstances is beyond the pale.
PS I don't know whether you noticed but the other day I responded to one of your posts positively. I agreed with what you said, primarily I was able to do so because you actually said something rather than just bitching.
Can you see the difference between a post that says 'nonsense' and one that says 'Democratic consent was given at the GE'
The first is just a negative waste of time, the second had content. Why didn't you say the 2nd in the first place. We might not agree with it, but it has value. The former didn't have any value whatsoever.
Why don't you just mind your own business. I write what I want. You are not my overseer. Nor are you there to mark my posts.Go away and stop stalking me.
Can't even react positively to a positive post eh?
It is my business as this is an open forum so I will comment as I see fit (unless I get banned). If I decide to comment on your bile I will. Shame as your last few posts have been more constructive, but I see you have gone back to the crap again.
Give him a break, @squareroot2's world order is disintegrating before his eyes as Truss is being mad enough to give that neoliberal bollocks a try - with the inevitable disastrous consequences.
That's not the case either. The Tories have been in power for too long. This is the inevitable consequence of being in power and running outbof ideas . The tax cuts are meaningless and will do sfa. The 50 billion cost which probably isn't true spooked the markets. The media, post lying Boris have been waiting to bring the Tories down. Frankly it makes no odds to me whether it's Labour or Tories in power, I am In the same boat as many people. The Tories are talking about screwing pensioners. Frankly I am likely to be better off under Labour ...
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 25m First ukrainian official Ive seen putting a specific figure on the number of Russian troops trapped in Lyman. 5000.
With the front now 20 km further east from Lyman and supplies cut off, then the situation for the Russians is desperate. Fighting now in Kreminna shows a total collapse of the line, as was suggested last night. Peskov also announced the suspension of the mobilization "because the recruiting offices are over loaded" (translation from the weasel- the mobilization has been the greatest Russian military disaster in decades).
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
An excellent post and I find it difficult to disagree with most of it. My only concern is the collapse of the Russian regime and what replaces it. Whilst I hope for a Russian spring, a democratic revival and a welcome return to being an important partner, I fear if done wrong we get a regime even more reactionary than Putin’s.
Look to 1905 as well as 1945. A humiliating defeat does not mean the guy at the top getting ousted.
Also we're back to a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, at least as far as the Russian people goes. While lots of Russians are undertandably reluctant to meet a sordid death in a Ukrainian sunflower field and there are pockets of protest, I can't (admittedly from a great and poorly informed distance) really discern any strong distaste for Putin or the nationalist project.
Comments
But it is interesting to wonder who he means. Although also kinda obvious...
https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/09/30/its-a-slaughter/
The funereal faces in the Kremlin last night showed that the regime knows the game is up. The denouncing of the UN Charter (who signed up for these rules? asked Putin: all members of the UN, actually Vlad), was sinister, but in a pathetic, Dr. Evil, kind of way. The celebrations in Red Square were empty, and now many Russians are beginning to understand that the country is facing complete humiliation and utter disaster,
Though I would not want to test it, there is pretty good chance that even with better funding over the past decades, the Russian missile systems are in just as bad a state as the rest of the rabble of an army. Any nuclear use could lead to the rapid destruction of Russia´s entire armed forces, including its nuclear forces. The generals know this and while they are happy enough to rattle the nuclear sabre, there must be real concern that if they play that card, then rapid and total vengeance would follow. The western policy of maintaining conventional support for Ukraine makes complete sense. Russia has been warned to expect a "catastrophic" response to any first use of WMD.
So while our middle-agers here are enjoying the disaster porn of Threads and the like, the feeling here, close to the border, is that Russia is finished as a great power and that this war is the last nail in the coffin of a genuinely evil, criminal cabal. In their death throes they are very dangerous, but there is no real prospect of their long term survival. Could be weeks, or even months, but the direction of travel is close to irreversible. Then Russia will have to negotiate the scale of their moral depravity, in the same way as Germany did, after 1945.
https://twitter.com/AKamyshin
The Ukrainians are really winning the communications battle, at least from the west's viewpoint.
And she'd still waste at least two of them.....
I notice that renewables are on 62% at the moment. There must be at least one energy company that making a heap of money charging the gas rate for wind and solar.
Was he ever taken seriously?
https://images.app.goo.gl/Km2MTmxYDPc3Pv1y8
Looking at this map, it looks as though Kremina and Sverodonetsk will be taken back shortly.
Russia has spent decades getting vast amount of treasure from oil and gas. They will now be seen around the world as a massively unreliable supplier, untrustworthy. They will sell oil and gas, but at nowhere near the quantities they did before, or on the favourable conditions. Europe will find alternative supplies and move towards other, hopefully greener, forms of supply.
There is now no way that Russia ends this war stronger than it was before February this year. It will be a diminished country, in terms of its military, its world standing, and most importantly, the lives of its own citizens. A pariah.
The only way out of this is to withdraw from Ukraine - at the very least to its pre-February borders - and admit defeat. Then, slowly over time, sanctions can be withdrawn. But I doubt Germany et al will be taking long-term energy contracts out with them, and western companies will be very hesitant to invest in the country.
Continuing the escalation will only weaken Russia, as well as imperilling the world. And that's what worries me: as I've been saying for years, Putin is not interested in making Russia stronger. He is only interested in bringing us down to his level.
The bed wetting from the types on here reliving their 1980s under the covers nightmares is a sight to behold. God knows what would happen if they had to face the night and fury of Liz Truss.
Thanks to bans and moratoria on transferring plutonium internationally, it just stacks up. Clinton had a plan to buy the world stocks up, IIRC, but the sticking point was the US purchasing the reprocessed plutonium.
1997: Labour 179 seat majority (659 MPs in Commons)
1992: Tories 14,093,007 votes
1983: Tory 14.8pp vote share lead
1959: Tory 49.4% vote share
1931: National 67.2% vote share, 36.6pp vote share lead and 493 seat majority (615 MPs in Commons)
Some of those records are safe, but one does start to wonder about a few of them.
https://twitter.com/DrAseemMalhotra/status/1574986541302104065?s=20&t=HBbW0LFrvxGdVCWUzy4Tgw
He should be Field Marshal Dr. James Delingpole, KG, VC, DSO, President for Life, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and the Fishes of the Sea.
Once the vote was won all they had to do was manoeuvre themselves into control which they have managed to do courtesy of 80,000 aged clueless Tory members.
At least we will now witness this right-wing wet-dream in action and if the initial reaction is anything to go by it will shred its credibility for decades to come. With any luck it will eventually take Brexit down with it as the penny finally drops that these are the very same idiots that promised them the "sunlit uplands" and "levelling up".
That isn’t me…
@DailyMirror
https://twitter.com/KwasiKwarteng/status/1576133060411523072
Not a great start to “Black History Month”…
The Chief Lizard frequently apologises about WWI and 2.
It is a complicated story, involving a junior lizard, a time machine and a meeting a mad bloke eating oysters on his own at a second rate hotel. And a Moroccan black cab driver in London.
But can someone explain how you increase productivity by reducing investment
See
https://twitter.com/RichardALJones/status/1575730600111378432
Richard Jones
@RichardALJones
"spending on capital projects and research and development would be the early targets for savings"
From a government that claims to put the need to restore the economy to growth above all else, difficult to imagine anything more counterproductive.
And HS2 - which really isn't going to save her a penny in the 2 years she has to screw things up...
I'm not very worried about nuclear war today. I suspect that Russia's nukes are more of a danger to Russia than to us.
https://schoolsweek.co.uk/itt-review-5k-places-at-risk-as-third-of-scitts-left-out/
That is better than four months ago when they accidentally decided to close 100% of them through administrative incompetence.
"Malhotra's views on diet and health have been criticized by the British Heart Foundation as "misleading and wrong", and his public questioning of the need ever to use statins has been condemned as a danger to public health."
"During the COVID-19 pandemic Malhotra published a book called The 21-Day Immunity Plan[11] making claims that following the diet could quickly help people reduce their risk from the virus; such claims are not backed by medical research evidence."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aseem_Malhotra
PS I don't know whether you noticed but the other day I responded to one of your posts positively. I agreed with what you said, primarily I was able to do so because you actually said something rather than just bitching.
Can you see the difference between a post that says 'nonsense' and one that says 'Democratic consent was given at the GE'
The first is just a negative waste of time, the second had content. Why didn't you say the 2nd in the first place. We might not agree with it, but it has value. The former didn't have any value whatsoever.
Russia will have to face the same moral regeneration as Germany after 1945, and that is a process that takes generations.
One (and I have been guilty of this, and try to correct it) can end up saying things one would never dream of saying to another person in real life, and never dream of writing, if putting pen to paper.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/oct/30/butter-nonsense-the-rise-of-the-cholesterol-deniers
Calling Aseem Malhotra a 'respected doctor' would be like calling Richard Carrier a 'respected historian.' He is a crank who happens to have qualifications.
It's only outstanding and the the leader last year received a knighthood for services to education...
However, if Russia was going to use a WMD, the time of most danger was post the retreat from Kyiv. Things are too far down the line
You can't just ignore the manifesto (well you can but it has consequences) The Salisbury Convention has just a little say on that matter.
They're still pretty evil.
It was very hard for Germany, simply because of how vile the Nazis were. But, it was also easier, because they were such an outlier. Germany, pre-Nazi, was a prosperous, law-abiding, civilised country, with strong civic institutions. Russia doesn't really have any of that. Russia has always been a kleptocracy, since the time of the Mongol invasions. Without the Mongols, Russia today would probably be Scandinavian.
So watching it now is not, I fear, particularly well advised.
It is however also worth noting that it, like most of its cold-war bedfellows, do go for pretty much the bleakest representation of the aftermath of an all out nuclear war that they can (understandably). On a similar note, back in the day the Soviet Union had thousands of missiles spare that it could hit the UK with, if the goal was obliteration they could manage it. Any strike nowadays would be significant but as a poster mentioned, yesterday necessarily limited because there’s likely much fewer operational missiles to go round, and you need a decent chunk to knock out the USA.
Not that I relish the chance of finding out mind, just treat Threads for what it is - fiction, and realise that there is still a reason, in 2022, why MAD hasn’t happened yet despite tens of thousands of nukes being pointed at every population centre in the world (pretty much) for most of the Cold War.
Think version of those tiny metal canisters of laughing gas the kids get high on in the park…. Fits in a small pocket, easily.
At 150k a pop, how many haven’t been stolen in Putins Russia?
To be fair there are respected doctors like Dr Aseem Malhotra now coming out saying the vax is harmful
https://twitter.com/DrAseemMalhotra/status/1574986541302104065?s=20&t=HBbW0LFrvxGdVCWUzy4Tgw
The Pfizer mRNA to be precise.
Apropos of nothing, I ‘enjoyed’ my second covid booster on Thursday. I had a pretty intense reaction (flu like fever etc) to my fist booster (Pfizer, after 2x AZ). Had the new moderna mRNA this time and again nasty fever for 36 hours. Not fun.
But harmful? Not a lot of evidence for that.
The tories are bankrupting the economy with their own internal games. If it was just the case of energy caps then no one would be complaining - it's utterly useless tax cuts that are the issue here....
She says whatever works. I very much doubt she believes in anything.
It is my business as this is an open forum so I will comment as I see fit (unless I get banned). If I decide to comment on your bile I will. Shame as your last few posts have been more constructive, but I see you have gone back to the crap again.
Edit - from wiki:
"Malhotra's views on diet and health have been criticized by the British Heart Foundation as "misleading and wrong", and his public questioning of the need ever to use statins has been condemned as a danger to public health.[10] His "Pioppi diet" was named by the British Dietetic Association as one of the "top 5 worst celeb diets to avoid in 2018".[4] During the COVID-19 pandemic Malhotra published a book called The 21-Day Immunity Plan[11] making claims that following the diet could quickly help people reduce their risk from the virus; such claims are not backed by medical research evidence.[1]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aseem_Malhotra
'Respected doctor', eh?
The DfE make the Russian Army's High Command look positively competent.
But harmful? Not a lot of evidence for that.
Looks like a load of bollocks to me. "...this vaccine is not completely safe." No vaccine is completely safe, surely?
No, nothing will be completely safe, hence the wrangles we’ve had over vaccinating kids in the U.K.
The Tories will pay the price at the next election because they have stuffed the country in a far, far worse way than Labour ever did.
it is impossible both to elect for 5 years and expect government not to adjust to radical changes of circumstance, which these are.
That does not mean I agree with either Boris or LT.
And do you ever wonder why lots of others here comment on your posts in the same way as I do from posters ranging from the left to the right?
You only have to look at your obnoxious reply to what was a reasonably positive post to you.
I suppose the top 0.1% will cheer when they are exempted from all taxes using the money saved by the closing of everything
Apropos of nothing, I ‘enjoyed’ my second covid booster on Thursday. I had a pretty intense reaction (flu like fever etc) to my fist booster (Pfizer, after 2x AZ). Had the new moderna mRNA this time and again nasty fever for 36 hours. Not fun.
But harmful? Not a lot of evidence for that.
I had mine a fortnight ago. Felt slightly fragile for a day, but vaccination is supposed to provoke an immune response. It is the whole point!
Sure, post vaccine myocarditis and other side effects exist, but myocarditis etc is an even more frequent complication of the virus itself.
The infectivity is such that about 50% will now get it every year, and like flu the antigenic shift means that immunity fades. I reckon on annual boosters from now on. Anti-vaxxers can make their choice. It's their funeral.
Germany always had a strong militaristic tradition and although clearly delineated, its civil institutions were actually very weak compared to the army. For example, the Reichstag under the Empire had no power over the government, and during the Weimar era the Presidency ruled without the Reichstag altogether under Article 48 on many occasions long before Hitler came to power. And the President was elected because he was an ex military commander.
Germany also always had a highly expansionist outlook, including annexing large chunks of territory from its neighbours. They launched WWI (yes, they did, that's been an argument pretty much done and dusted for 60 years ever since Fischer published his book on the subject and Ritter was caught forging and destroying documents to rebut it) very largely in the hope of annexing more territory in Poland, Belgium and France.
Without wishing to be all AJP Taylor about this, one of the more troubling features of Nazism is how many of its policies followed quite naturally from those of earlier generations of German rulers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9NMQf_RfZw
1. Is Putin mad enough to do it?
2. Will anyone in the chain of command refuse the order, or do we believe if the order is given, it will be followed?
3. Does Russia actually have the operational capability to fire its nukes?
With regard to 1, Putin is clearly behaving irrationally and has been since the start of the war. He's clearly capable of issuing the order. There is also the good kamil galeev thread on Twitter about how a tactical nuke would provoke such a response from the west, it would allow Putin to de-escalate the war, thus saving face.
As far as 2 goes, we don't know. There's a rather high chance if Putin ordered a full first strike of strategic nukes it would be refused. But battlefield nukes? We know from the M388 US Davy Crockett that these things are man portable. It's not the same process as tactical nukes. Could Putin order his generals to deploy tactical nukes on the battlefield and is there a reasonable possibility he will be obeyed? Yes, absolutely. If NATO then responds with a devastating conventional attack, e.g. sinking the Black Sea Fleet, cruise missile strikes on military targets, etc, it is very possible that leads to an escalation that sees people within the chain of command more willing to follow orders to use strategic nukes, or an accident - e.g. a cruise missile being mistaken for a nuclear first strike, leading to a response.
3. The big unknown. Having seen the state of most Russian materiel can we assume their nuclear arsenal is in a similar, poorly-maintained state? Probably. But do we want to find out?
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/work/key-workers-to-be-called-low-skilled-workers-again-by-easter-20210126204660
"WORKERS in essential services will be downgraded from heroes to low-skilled by Easter if vaccinations continue at their current rate, it has been confirmed."
I was talking to a friend last night, also a retired teacher. We were trying to decide whether the DfE's actions on education showed malice or mind-bending stupidity.
We came to the conclusion (a) it's impossible to say and (b) it doesn't matter an awful lot given the effect is much the same.
(For what it's worth, I suspect it's genuine ignorance coupled with intellectual laziness, typical Whitehall arrogance and complacency. Which doesn't necessarily equal stupidity but in practical terms is indistinguishable from it.)
Truss has the zeal of the converted and is nothing more than a puppet of ERG. To repeat myself, let's see how it plays out when voters finally see the face behind the Brexit mask.
Instead of atoning for the crimes of Stalinism and Communism, Putin has mostly repeated those crimes. This is why I use the word "moral" crisis. There has been no truth and reconciliation, but instead a glorification of the KGB and other criminals. Unless this is ended, Russia can never recover. I have many Russophone friends who now refuse to engage with any Russian culture because whatever the glories of Bulgakov, Tshaikovsky etc, everything is overlaid with the continuing brutality of thugs like Stalin, Beria and indeed Putin. As one said, who cares about the ballet when they are rebuilding the GULAG? The collapse of Russian soft power is just as remarkable as any other part of this Russian disaster.
Edited extra bit: bugger. Suspended market just as I was placing bets.
PS In fairness you have done some today.
That is surely true. On my one and only visit so far to a PB social I met a few posters I had sparred with several times, not always politely. They all turned out to be terribly nice people, somewhat disappointingly.
- a provocation against (or ascribed to) Russian speakers in NATO countries (especially where geographically concentrated, such as in Ida-Viru in Estonia, which adjoins the Russian border, but also in Latvia), or in non-NATO countries such as Moldova (Transnistria), or
- a provocation in territories annexed by Russia in 1945 such as Vyborg (formerly in Finland) or Kaliningrad (surrounded on land by NATO members).
A terrorist attack in any of these places could have horrendous knock-on effects. Or not even a terrorist attack. In Estonia see a couple of incidents involving statues.
Lyman and the rest of the front line are scary enough, but what's also scary is the volatility all over the place, with several possible trigger points across Europe.
Frankly it makes no odds to me whether it's Labour or Tories in power, I am In the same boat as many people. The Tories are talking about screwing pensioners. Frankly I am likely to be better off under Labour ...