Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
She won't have a majority in the Commons for this stuff when it gets back. Forced U-turn incoming, but not until Truss gets to say Thatchers famous line to conference first.
TLDR; the things you think are beyond the pale morally, are to another person the only moral answer.
The usual conclusion from the book is that we should be more understanding of others’ political positions - more often than we think our opponents genuinely believe in the moral purpose of what they are doing.
In the case of the extremists in government, I feel there is also another conclusion to draw. If you are weird enough, you can find almost any outcome the ‘moral’ one (cf gulags under communism). So one should be deeply suspicious of one’s own moral certainties.
Given what others have posted about Truss in the last few hours, I’m not sure she will be open to that conclusion though.
I've not read it (although will now add it to the pile), but I did write this a few months ago on Facebook:
Yep I agree with what you wrote - I think you’ll like the book - I think it should be essential reading for anyone involved in politics - I recommend it to any 6th former wanting to go into politics at school. It’s basically giving a firm psychological basis for the call for empathy in your post
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Whatever she is, she is not a charismatic populist. She cannot inspire the kind of movement that Trump and other right wing demagogues can.
As a result despite best efforts , the KamiKwasi budget did not result in sowing division and energising a populist movement. The Tories were not motivated by post truth denials, enthusiastically picking up post truth dog-whistles. Instead, we got a hard crunch of reality.
That has to be good thing, if Boris has been in charge he would have found a way to spin it. Instead, we are dealing with hard truths.
It’s better to deal with hard truths, than lies.
Hard truths like no household will pay more than £2,500 for energy this year? Either spin or gross incompetence to not know the central thing about your flagship £200bn policy.
An approach of everyone else is too dim to understand, but we will make no effort to explain it to you for 8 weeks may not be your typical spin machine, but neither is it any more worthy of praise.
I did not say that Truss didn’t try to spin. She just so bad at it, that we end up facing reality in the face. It may not be worthy of praise, but it’s better that we look problems in the eye than spin ourselves into another period of denial.
Incidentally Robert, the new boundaries are catastrophic for Lib Dem hopes in North East Fife: the constituency now takes in a large SNP/Lab chunk. Baxter judges it to be a de facto SNP seat now.
Baxter’s prediction for North East Fife (new boundaries), based on yesterday’s YouGov, is:
SNP 40% SLab 31% SLD 20% Grn 4% Con 3%
I didn't see that: well, in which case that is probably the most doomed of the SLD seats, with the caveat that the LDs are masters at persuading people that only they can bear Lab/Con/SNP here.
Edit to add:
I'm probably a bit negative on the SLD chances. That's a Baxtered estimate, using the latest opinion polls, which have a big move to SLab and with the SLDs down.
In the real world, the SLDs will tell everyone in the Lab area, that it's an LD seat, and if they don't vote LD, they'll let the SNP in.
And it might just work. My 50% for the LDs may be generous, but it's not absurd.
You’re assuming that Scottish Labour voters are solidly Unionist. They are not. According to the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey, 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence, and an awful lot more are ambivalent. Faced with a straight Lib Dem/SNP choice, a big chunk of Labour voters in Fife will choose the SNP. Clegg&Cameron lingers long in the memory!
Nevertheless, on a forced choice basis, Unionists outnumber Nationalists in Scotland (for now), and NE Fife is a more Unionist than average constituency. The LDs would need to consolidate the Unionist vote, and while it is not a 50% shot, it's far from impossible.
- “Unionists outnumber Nationalists in Scotland (for now)…”
Nope. Scottish independence became the choice of the plurality a long time ago, and the choice of the majority recently. The gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey has.
Independence 52% Devolution (the status quo) 38% Direct rule (the status quo ante) 8%
And bear in mind that a huge chunk of that 38% supporting devolution are ‘small n’ Scottish nationalists.
It's like the TV series Chernobyl but even darker, and smarter. The regression to primitive medieval life, and the guttural language? Superb
Is it terrifying? Not quite. Desolating, yes
As a literary man (so I understand from your posts) have you read "Riddley Walker" by Russell Hoban?
A very difficult book to read as it is all written in a post-apocalyptic dialect - written in an "English" years/decades after a nuclear holocaust.
It could almost be a follow-on from the society left by Threads - but decades later.
Worth a read - if you can stomach translating a very peculiar dialect.
As a warning about nuclear holocaust THREADS possibly fails because it is so mesmerically brilliant. Each horrific image and word is in perfect sequence which becomes kinda.... beautiful. It really is a sombre Bach fugue
Like a harrowing but brilliant bullfight? No, more like a prolonged stag hunt in Edwardian England in the piling rain, or a funereal spaceship in a terrible dream, or the death of a million slaves turned into a single, fragile, blue-glass vase. Dunno. Tremendous!
But fuck I don't wanna die in a nuclear war
Surely the question of the film is do you really want to live through a nuclear war.
Well, yes, that too
I'm now reading that they made that movie for £400,000
In-fucking-sane. A colossal, historic masterpiece that really conveys what nuclear apocalypse would be like, for the price of 6 minutes of Netflix drama?
it just shows it really isn't the money, if you have the artistry. Great script, too. And so relentless. So utterly pitiless. No redemption (as there should not be). Wow
I watched Threads this eve for the first time since the 90s.
The message is obvious, the consequences of nuclear war are horrific and, while survivable, are questionable - who would want to live?
My re-watch tells me we are also a lot further along that timeline than we would care to admit. We've all read the scare stories on the news, but this is real. The russians are clearly days away from deploying battlefield nukes and if we respond in kind, we get the threads timeline. If we don't respond in kind though...... No good options.
It's the great use of the typo-graphic (?) bulletins you get during the movie informing you of the different stages of escalation which really works. You don't need to see "many B52's lost" over Iran, the graphical bulletin gives everything you need. And it adds an urgency and immediacy which, and you are right, allies with certain things we're seeing now.
Yep. It is the banality of ordinary life just going along in the first half hour or so of the movie, as the teletype news bulletins come in.
What are the teletype bulletins from the last few days as we go about our daily lives?
Gas pipeline to Europe is blown up. Blackouts expected. Putin announces partial mobilisation, another 300,000 soldiers called up to fight US announces another $1bn in military aid to Ukraine. $26bn provided so far. Four Ukrainian provinces annexed by Russia, Putin delivers live TV address Polish minister warns use of battlefield nukes will be considered an attack on NATO...
As I say, what we are seeing at the moment fits in disturbingly neatly with the Threads timeline, and we are perilously close.
I hesitate to say good morning this morning! We do seem to be doom and gloom. And, I suppose, justifiably. However there is some positivity in the Cole household; an operation which will probably at least hold the deterioration in my dexterity and mobility has been scheduled for later this month and over the next few days the appropriate preparations will be made, so we can look forward to the arrival of great grandson one! Rather than worrying about OKC! And granddaughter three seems to have come out of her Covid related miseries and be doing well at school! Likes sixth form much better!
Incidentally Robert, the new boundaries are catastrophic for Lib Dem hopes in North East Fife: the constituency now takes in a large SNP/Lab chunk. Baxter judges it to be a de facto SNP seat now.
Baxter’s prediction for North East Fife (new boundaries), based on yesterday’s YouGov, is:
SNP 40% SLab 31% SLD 20% Grn 4% Con 3%
I didn't see that: well, in which case that is probably the most doomed of the SLD seats, with the caveat that the LDs are masters at persuading people that only they can bear Lab/Con/SNP here.
Edit to add:
I'm probably a bit negative on the SLD chances. That's a Baxtered estimate, using the latest opinion polls, which have a big move to SLab and with the SLDs down.
In the real world, the SLDs will tell everyone in the Lab area, that it's an LD seat, and if they don't vote LD, they'll let the SNP in.
And it might just work. My 50% for the LDs may be generous, but it's not absurd.
You’re assuming that Scottish Labour voters are solidly Unionist. They are not. According to the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey, 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence, and an awful lot more are ambivalent. Faced with a straight Lib Dem/SNP choice, a big chunk of Labour voters in Fife will choose the SNP. Clegg&Cameron lingers long in the memory!
Nevertheless, on a forced choice basis, Unionists outnumber Nationalists in Scotland (for now), and NE Fife is a more Unionist than average constituency. The LDs would need to consolidate the Unionist vote, and while it is not a 50% shot, it's far from impossible.
- “Unionists outnumber Nationalists in Scotland (for now)…”
Nope. Scottish independence became the choice of the plurality a long time ago, and the choice of the majority recently. The gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey has.
Independence 52% Devolution (the status quo) 38% Direct rule (the status quo ante) 8%
And bear in mind that a huge chunk of that 38% supporting devolution are ‘small n’ Scottish nationalists.
With all due respect (and I do like and respect you), there have been narrow leads on independence vs remaining part of the UK in 13 of the last 14 polls:
Now, in a referendum, could Independence win? Absolutely. Indeed, I might even make it a narrow favourite. But current polling is for a narrow win for the Unionist side.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
But the manifesto (levelling up etc) was very much towards one extreme of conservatism, and this is very much towards another extreme.
In your view is that not a problem? Again, genuinely interested, not trolling.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
Truss and Kwarteng claim that this a new era. It does not add up.
It's like the TV series Chernobyl but even darker, and smarter. The regression to primitive medieval life, and the guttural language? Superb
Is it terrifying? Not quite. Desolating, yes
As a literary man (so I understand from your posts) have you read "Riddley Walker" by Russell Hoban?
A very difficult book to read as it is all written in a post-apocalyptic dialect - written in an "English" years/decades after a nuclear holocaust.
It could almost be a follow-on from the society left by Threads - but decades later.
Worth a read - if you can stomach translating a very peculiar dialect.
As a warning about nuclear holocaust THREADS possibly fails because it is so mesmerically brilliant. Each horrific image and word is in perfect sequence which becomes kinda.... beautiful. It really is a sombre Bach fugue
Like a harrowing but brilliant bullfight? No, more like a prolonged stag hunt in Edwardian England in the piling rain, or a funereal spaceship in a terrible dream, or the death of a million slaves turned into a single, fragile, blue-glass vase. Dunno. Tremendous!
But fuck I don't wanna die in a nuclear war
Surely the question of the film is do you really want to live through a nuclear war.
Well, yes, that too
I'm now reading that they made that movie for £400,000
In-fucking-sane. A colossal, historic masterpiece that really conveys what nuclear apocalypse would be like, for the price of 6 minutes of Netflix drama?
it just shows it really isn't the money, if you have the artistry. Great script, too. And so relentless. So utterly pitiless. No redemption (as there should not be). Wow
I watched Threads this eve for the first time since the 90s.
The message is obvious, the consequences of nuclear war are horrific and, while survivable, are questionable - who would want to live?
My re-watch tells me we are also a lot further along that timeline than we would care to admit. We've all read the scare stories on the news, but this is real. The russians are clearly days away from deploying battlefield nukes and if we respond in kind, we get the threads timeline. If we don't respond in kind though...... No good options.
It's the great use of the typo-graphic (?) bulletins you get during the movie informing you of the different stages of escalation which really works. You don't need to see "many B52's lost" over Iran, the graphical bulletin gives everything you need. And it adds an urgency and immediacy which, and you are right, allies with certain things we're seeing now.
Yep. It is the banality of ordinary life just going along in the first half hour or so of the movie, as the teletype news bulletins come in.
What are the teletype bulletins from the last few days as we go about our daily lives?
Gas pipeline to Europe is blown up. Blackouts expected. Putin announces partial mobilisation, another 300,000 soldiers called up to fight US announces another $1bn in military aid to Ukraine. $26bn provided so far. Four Ukrainian provinces annexed by Russia, Putin delivers live TV address Polish minister warns use of battlefield nukes will be considered an attack on NATO...
As I say, what we are seeing at the moment fits in disturbingly neatly with the Threads timeline, and we are perilously close.
Sure:
But the alternative is that we announce that nuclear blackmail works. That doesn't end well either.
Basically, a bunch of stupid frat boys watched one of those B movies, where a MegaCorp has a bunch of henchmen in sunglasses on retainer who commit ludicrously illegal acts. And thought - “cool, we need this”.
Obviously they switched off the movie(s) before the last act. Those guys always end up dead or in prison.
Whatever she is, she is not a charismatic populist. She cannot inspire the kind of movement that Trump and other right wing demagogues can.
As a result despite best efforts , the KamiKwasi budget did not result in sowing division and energising a populist movement. The Tories were not motivated by post truth denials, enthusiastically picking up post truth dog-whistles. Instead, we got a hard crunch of reality.
That has to be good thing, if Boris has been in charge he would have found a way to spin it. Instead, we are dealing with hard truths.
It’s better to deal with hard truths, than lies.
Hard truths like no household will pay more than £2,500 for energy this year? Either spin or gross incompetence to not know the central thing about your flagship £200bn policy.
An approach of everyone else is too dim to understand, but we will make no effort to explain it to you for 8 weeks may not be your typical spin machine, but neither is it any more worthy of praise.
I did not say that Truss didn’t try to spin. She just so bad at it, that we end up facing reality in the face. It may not be worthy of praise, but it’s better that we look problems in the eye than spin ourselves into another period of denial.
Not sure eight weeks of silence counts as meeting problems head on or facing reality. Maybe in a monastery but not as PM and Chancellor in a financial crisis.
I hesitate to say good morning this morning! We do seem to be doom and gloom. And, I suppose, justifiably. However there is some positivity in the Cole household; an operation which will probably at least hold the deterioration in my dexterity and mobility has been scheduled for later this month and over the next few days the appropriate preparations will be made, so we can look forward to the arrival of great grandson one! Rather than worrying about OKC! And granddaughter three seems to have come out of her Covid related miseries and be doing well at school! Likes sixth form much better!
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
Truss and Kwarteng claim that this a new era. It does not add up.
No sense whatever of an imminent U-turn in Downing Street on Budget. One source says: 'We've got an 80-seat majority and we've done nothing with it. We have an opportunity now to push through reforms to things that have been holding Britain back for years. If not now, when?' https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1575866749106327552
Incidentally Robert, the new boundaries are catastrophic for Lib Dem hopes in North East Fife: the constituency now takes in a large SNP/Lab chunk. Baxter judges it to be a de facto SNP seat now.
Baxter’s prediction for North East Fife (new boundaries), based on yesterday’s YouGov, is:
SNP 40% SLab 31% SLD 20% Grn 4% Con 3%
I didn't see that: well, in which case that is probably the most doomed of the SLD seats, with the caveat that the LDs are masters at persuading people that only they can bear Lab/Con/SNP here.
Edit to add:
I'm probably a bit negative on the SLD chances. That's a Baxtered estimate, using the latest opinion polls, which have a big move to SLab and with the SLDs down.
In the real world, the SLDs will tell everyone in the Lab area, that it's an LD seat, and if they don't vote LD, they'll let the SNP in.
And it might just work. My 50% for the LDs may be generous, but it's not absurd.
You’re assuming that Scottish Labour voters are solidly Unionist. They are not. According to the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey, 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence. Faced with a straight Lib Dem/SNP choice, a big chunk of Labour voters in Fife will choose the SNP. Clegg&Cameron lingers long in the memory!
A vote for the SNP makes a Tory government more likely.
Basic arithmetic failure there.
Even if 100% of Scots voted SNP it would not assist the Conservatives one iota. Because, unlike Labour, the SNP will not do coalition or C&S deals with the Conservatives.
Mr. Above, cheers. It'll be fascinating to see what Sunak et al do. Starmer and other party leaders should be getting every single MP they have to vote against the measures.
Starmer would be quite happy for them to plough ahead with the full public support of all Tory MPs.......
It is Truss who benefits, marginally, from having an excuse to u-turn and possibly sack the Chancellor.
Incidentally Robert, the new boundaries are catastrophic for Lib Dem hopes in North East Fife: the constituency now takes in a large SNP/Lab chunk. Baxter judges it to be a de facto SNP seat now.
Baxter’s prediction for North East Fife (new boundaries), based on yesterday’s YouGov, is:
SNP 40% SLab 31% SLD 20% Grn 4% Con 3%
I didn't see that: well, in which case that is probably the most doomed of the SLD seats, with the caveat that the LDs are masters at persuading people that only they can bear Lab/Con/SNP here.
Edit to add:
I'm probably a bit negative on the SLD chances. That's a Baxtered estimate, using the latest opinion polls, which have a big move to SLab and with the SLDs down.
In the real world, the SLDs will tell everyone in the Lab area, that it's an LD seat, and if they don't vote LD, they'll let the SNP in.
And it might just work. My 50% for the LDs may be generous, but it's not absurd.
You’re assuming that Scottish Labour voters are solidly Unionist. They are not. According to the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey, 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence. Faced with a straight Lib Dem/SNP choice, a big chunk of Labour voters in Fife will choose the SNP. Clegg&Cameron lingers long in the memory!
A vote for the SNP makes a Tory government more likely.
Basic arithmetic failure there.
Even if 100% of Scots voted SNP it would not assist the Conservatives one iota. Because, unlike Labour, the SNP will not do coalition or C&S deals with the Conservatives.
If Scotland returned Labour MPs a Labour majority is more likely. That’s a good thing for the UK and Scottish democracy, which is currently a one party state.
Obviously, the SNP likes being in opposition to a Tory government at Westminster, because it gives their movement energy.
I suspect the rising Starmer tide will float even leaky boats like SLAB.
Vote SLAB and have a say in the UK government is going to have some appeal at the next GE.
Dr. Foxy, it will indeed help Labour in Scotland. A difficulty faced in government will be trying to ensure that neither the north of England nor Scotland feels let down, although that will be aided by the immediate comparison (probably) being between Labour and Truss' current madness.
But it won't be great, probably, if you're in the south and outside of London. Although they often get ignored by all sides.
I hesitate to say good morning this morning! We do seem to be doom and gloom. And, I suppose, justifiably. However there is some positivity in the Cole household; an operation which will probably at least hold the deterioration in my dexterity and mobility has been scheduled for later this month and over the next few days the appropriate preparations will be made, so we can look forward to the arrival of great grandson one! Rather than worrying about OKC! And granddaughter three seems to have come out of her Covid related miseries and be doing well at school! Likes sixth form much better!
Best of luck with my spinal colleagues.
Bed situation appalling at my hospital. On Thursday we had 80 patients awaiting an emergency bed. Nottinghamshire has even worse problems:
Incidentally Robert, the new boundaries are catastrophic for Lib Dem hopes in North East Fife: the constituency now takes in a large SNP/Lab chunk. Baxter judges it to be a de facto SNP seat now.
Baxter’s prediction for North East Fife (new boundaries), based on yesterday’s YouGov, is:
SNP 40% SLab 31% SLD 20% Grn 4% Con 3%
I didn't see that: well, in which case that is probably the most doomed of the SLD seats, with the caveat that the LDs are masters at persuading people that only they can bear Lab/Con/SNP here.
Edit to add:
I'm probably a bit negative on the SLD chances. That's a Baxtered estimate, using the latest opinion polls, which have a big move to SLab and with the SLDs down.
In the real world, the SLDs will tell everyone in the Lab area, that it's an LD seat, and if they don't vote LD, they'll let the SNP in.
And it might just work. My 50% for the LDs may be generous, but it's not absurd.
You’re assuming that Scottish Labour voters are solidly Unionist. They are not. According to the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey, 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence. Faced with a straight Lib Dem/SNP choice, a big chunk of Labour voters in Fife will choose the SNP. Clegg&Cameron lingers long in the memory!
A vote for the SNP makes a Tory government more likely.
Basic arithmetic failure there.
Even if 100% of Scots voted SNP it would not assist the Conservatives one iota. Because, unlike Labour, the SNP will not do coalition or C&S deals with the Conservatives.
If Scotland returned Labour MPs a Labour majority is more likely. That’s a good thing for the UK and Scottish democracy, which is currently a one party state.
Obviously, the SNP likes being in opposition to a Tory government at Westminster, because it gives their movement energy.
"one party state" - it is actually a minority government and has been for some years. Currently with a degree of cooperative agreement with the SGs.
I hesitate to say good morning this morning! We do seem to be doom and gloom. And, I suppose, justifiably. However there is some positivity in the Cole household; an operation which will probably at least hold the deterioration in my dexterity and mobility has been scheduled for later this month and over the next few days the appropriate preparations will be made, so we can look forward to the arrival of great grandson one! Rather than worrying about OKC! And granddaughter three seems to have come out of her Covid related miseries and be doing well at school! Likes sixth form much better!
Best of luck with my spinal colleagues.
Bed situation appalling at my hospital. On Thursday we had 80 patients awaiting an emergency bed. Nottinghamshire has even worse problems:
Incidentally Robert, the new boundaries are catastrophic for Lib Dem hopes in North East Fife: the constituency now takes in a large SNP/Lab chunk. Baxter judges it to be a de facto SNP seat now.
Baxter’s prediction for North East Fife (new boundaries), based on yesterday’s YouGov, is:
SNP 40% SLab 31% SLD 20% Grn 4% Con 3%
I didn't see that: well, in which case that is probably the most doomed of the SLD seats, with the caveat that the LDs are masters at persuading people that only they can bear Lab/Con/SNP here.
Edit to add:
I'm probably a bit negative on the SLD chances. That's a Baxtered estimate, using the latest opinion polls, which have a big move to SLab and with the SLDs down.
In the real world, the SLDs will tell everyone in the Lab area, that it's an LD seat, and if they don't vote LD, they'll let the SNP in.
And it might just work. My 50% for the LDs may be generous, but it's not absurd.
You’re assuming that Scottish Labour voters are solidly Unionist. They are not. According to the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey, 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence. Faced with a straight Lib Dem/SNP choice, a big chunk of Labour voters in Fife will choose the SNP. Clegg&Cameron lingers long in the memory!
A vote for the SNP makes a Tory government more likely.
Basic arithmetic failure there.
Even if 100% of Scots voted SNP it would not assist the Conservatives one iota. Because, unlike Labour, the SNP will not do coalition or C&S deals with the Conservatives.
If Scotland returned Labour MPs a Labour majority is more likely. That’s a good thing for the UK and Scottish democracy, which is currently a one party state.
Obviously, the SNP likes being in opposition to a Tory government at Westminster, because it gives their movement energy.
I suspect the rising Starmer tide will float even leaky boats like SLAB.
Vote SLAB and have a say in the UK government is going to have some appeal at the next GE.
Bit of a logical fallacy there. It's MP numbers that count, to have a say, and at the moment there is only one - ergo no experienced Labour MPs qua MPs of the ilk of Messrs Smith, Dewar, Cook and so on. So low-to-zero presence in the cabinet, and more generally swamped in the E&W mass. Unless any MSPs want to take the risk.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
But the manifesto (levelling up etc) was very much towards one extreme of conservatism, and this is very much towards another extreme.
In your view is that not a problem? Again, genuinely interested, not trolling.
Manifestos are not binding. We elect representatives to use their best judgement.
The only places where direct democratic consent is needed is where they want to change the rules of the game - voting systems, Scottish independence, Brexit etc
🔥 "Truss-terfucked" 🔥 "Conference will be a shitshow with a capital S" 🔥 "I've got a D in GCSE maths and even I could run the economy better than this bunch of chancers"
Me and @SophiaSleigh on the Tories at war as they gather in Birmingham.
I hesitate to say good morning this morning! We do seem to be doom and gloom. And, I suppose, justifiably. However there is some positivity in the Cole household; an operation which will probably at least hold the deterioration in my dexterity and mobility has been scheduled for later this month and over the next few days the appropriate preparations will be made, so we can look forward to the arrival of great grandson one! Rather than worrying about OKC! And granddaughter three seems to have come out of her Covid related miseries and be doing well at school! Likes sixth form much better!
Best of luck with my spinal colleagues.
Bed situation appalling at my hospital. On Thursday we had 80 patients awaiting an emergency bed. Nottinghamshire has even worse problems:
If Truss wants to collapse Health and Social Care then we are going to be in a very dark place.
Thank you. I had an excellent experience with the spinal unit a few years ago; completely resolved the problem. Obviously I'm concerned with the bed situation. However the secretary who phoned me yesterday to make the arrangements seemed quite confident. Very pleasant and positive lady!
Incidentally Robert, the new boundaries are catastrophic for Lib Dem hopes in North East Fife: the constituency now takes in a large SNP/Lab chunk. Baxter judges it to be a de facto SNP seat now.
Baxter’s prediction for North East Fife (new boundaries), based on yesterday’s YouGov, is:
SNP 40% SLab 31% SLD 20% Grn 4% Con 3%
Have the boundaries changed that much? Which area is now included? I know the seat quite well (I was born there and my folks still live there) and as my dad used to be quite active in the local Labour party I know how minimal Labour support was in the old constituency! I struggle to believe that Labour would do better than the Lib Dems and unless the seat has changed completely I can't see it being anything other than a Lib Dem vs SNP race. That Con 3% is incredible too - at one time this was considered a fairly safe Tory seat. I can just about believe it though!
🔥 "Truss-terfucked" 🔥 "Conference will be a shitshow with a capital S" 🔥 "I've got a D in GCSE maths and even I could run the economy better than this bunch of chancers"
Me and @SophiaSleigh on the Tories at war as they gather in Birmingham.
Marina Hyde has a book out. An anthology of her columns, and she has written another column about it. It contains this section
Having lost the news so decisively, I did think the sensible thing to do was to get out of the business of making predictions. Now, you might have noted this decision was not unanimously adopted by my profession. I can’t remember exactly when it hit me, but at a certain point I noticed how often political journalism was about predicting what was coming. We were suddenly awash with discussions about how the various stories were going to play out. Don’t get me wrong, I read and very much enjoyed most of it. But with the best will in the world, I’m not totally sure it’s the job of a journalist to tell you what’s going to happen next, as opposed to what’s just happened. Let’s be clear: the stuff that actually was occurring was wild enough. Even so, increasing amounts of content – particularly about where Brexit would end up – seemed to be a kind of futurology, with speculation about potential scenarios occasionally crowding out analysis of existing developments. I think it comes back to that thing of having lost the news. There was almost a cargo cult element to it all. If we just lay out the flowchart, if we just set out our logical case for how things should develop, then somehow – somehow! – the old familiar certainties will be airdropped back to us. They haven’t been yet – but soon, no doubt. Any day now …
Obviously on a betting site what happens next is of prime importance, but she is right about the majority of political "journalists"
Here is Dan
I started working in politics in 1991. I saw the implosion of Major up close. And the end of New Labour. The Miliband era. May's collapse. Boris blowing it within three years. But I've never seen a more toxic political, communications and policy mix than this. It's unsustainable.
Basically, a bunch of stupid frat boys watched one of those B movies, where a MegaCorp has a bunch of henchmen in sunglasses on retainer who commit ludicrously illegal acts. And thought - “cool, we need this”.
Obviously they switched off the movie(s) before the last act. Those guys always end up dead or in prison.
Talking of stupid frat boys, here's more information on Musk vs Twitter. It does not make Musk look good:
I particularly like: ""I wrote heavy duty software for 20 years," Mr Musk says." . Like f**k did he - and his coding skills at X.com and elsewhere were not necessarily widely regarded.
Another example of Musk bein a self-grandising bullshitter.
Orwellian is an over-used term in political commentary, but there's a War-is-Peace vibe when welfare cuts to fund tax breaks for millionaires is advertised by the guy whose ministerial job is "levelling up".
Incidentally Robert, the new boundaries are catastrophic for Lib Dem hopes in North East Fife: the constituency now takes in a large SNP/Lab chunk. Baxter judges it to be a de facto SNP seat now.
Baxter’s prediction for North East Fife (new boundaries), based on yesterday’s YouGov, is:
SNP 40% SLab 31% SLD 20% Grn 4% Con 3%
I didn't see that: well, in which case that is probably the most doomed of the SLD seats, with the caveat that the LDs are masters at persuading people that only they can bear Lab/Con/SNP here.
Edit to add:
I'm probably a bit negative on the SLD chances. That's a Baxtered estimate, using the latest opinion polls, which have a big move to SLab and with the SLDs down.
In the real world, the SLDs will tell everyone in the Lab area, that it's an LD seat, and if they don't vote LD, they'll let the SNP in.
And it might just work. My 50% for the LDs may be generous, but it's not absurd.
You’re assuming that Scottish Labour voters are solidly Unionist. They are not. According to the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey, 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence. Faced with a straight Lib Dem/SNP choice, a big chunk of Labour voters in Fife will choose the SNP. Clegg&Cameron lingers long in the memory!
A vote for the SNP makes a Tory government more likely.
Basic arithmetic failure there.
Even if 100% of Scots voted SNP it would not assist the Conservatives one iota. Because, unlike Labour, the SNP will not do coalition or C&S deals with the Conservatives.
If Scotland returned Labour MPs a Labour majority is more likely. That’s a good thing for the UK and Scottish democracy, which is currently a one party state.
Obviously, the SNP likes being in opposition to a Tory government at Westminster, because it gives their movement energy.
I suspect the rising Starmer tide will float even leaky boats like SLAB.
Vote SLAB and have a say in the UK government is going to have some appeal at the next GE.
Bit of a logical fallacy there. It's MP numbers that count, to have a say, and at the moment there is only one - ergo no experienced Labour MPs qua MPs of the ilk of Messrs Smith, Dewar, Cook and so on. So low-to-zero presence in the cabinet, and more generally swamped in the E&W mass. Unless any MSPs want to take the risk.
Edit: in fairness to Mr Murray I should have said: no *group* of experienced MPs. Mr M has not been a cabinet minister IIRC - but then it is a long tine since 2010.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
But the manifesto (levelling up etc) was very much towards one extreme of conservatism, and this is very much towards another extreme.
In your view is that not a problem? Again, genuinely interested, not trolling.
Manifestos are not binding. We elect representatives to use their best judgement.
The only places where direct democratic consent is needed is where they want to change the rules of the game - voting systems, Scottish independence, Brexit etc
Except that if it's not in the manifesto, any laws required will struggle to get through the Lords.
If it's not in the manifesto and a long way from the mood music of the manifesto, it will struggle to get through the Commons.
Basically, a bunch of stupid frat boys watched one of those B movies, where a MegaCorp has a bunch of henchmen in sunglasses on retainer who commit ludicrously illegal acts. And thought - “cool, we need this”.
Obviously they switched off the movie(s) before the last act. Those guys always end up dead or in prison.
Talking of stupid frat boys, here's more information on Musk vs Twitter. It does not make Musk look good:
I particularly like: ""I wrote heavy duty software for 20 years," Mr Musk says." . Like f**k did he - and his coding skills at X.com and elsewhere were not necessarily widely regarded.
Another example of Musk bein a self-grandising bullshitter.
Has he thought of standing as leader of the Tory party?
S&P: “for now it is unclear whether the government plans to ultimately introduce fiscal consolidation measures to bring debt back on a downward path and we assume that the package will be funded by debt, as announced.”
You should get on the phone to them and tell them that she just doesn't give a fuck and really is going to slash the state's liabilities.
@williamglenn have you changed your mind* about the plan, then?
I ask because if you have I’m impressed - as I recall you were one of the few defenders a few days ago - an entrenched position that it is hard to row back from.
If you haven’t, and still support her plan, I find your quoted comment very surprising. Slashing the state’s liabilities is, I agree, the logical consequence of her actions so far. But it’s also morally bankrupt. Utterly so.
*if you never supported her plan in the first place, apologies. I think you did, but it’s been a busy few days, I might be mistaken.
In that particular comment I was just pointing out that Scott has a different view to the ratings agencies.
On the budget, I would still defend it in a devil's advocate way. It was obviously politically inept to do something that was seen as a giveaway to the rich at this time, but I think that returning to a simpler two-tier income tax system is a good thing.
Incidentally Robert, the new boundaries are catastrophic for Lib Dem hopes in North East Fife: the constituency now takes in a large SNP/Lab chunk. Baxter judges it to be a de facto SNP seat now.
Baxter’s prediction for North East Fife (new boundaries), based on yesterday’s YouGov, is:
SNP 40% SLab 31% SLD 20% Grn 4% Con 3%
Have the boundaries changed that much? Which area is now included? I know the seat quite well (I was born there and my folks still live there) and as my dad used to be quite active in the local Labour party I know how minimal Labour support was in the old constituency! I struggle to believe that Labour would do better than the Lib Dems and unless the seat has changed completely I can't see it being anything other than a Lib Dem vs SNP race. That Con 3% is incredible too - at one time this was considered a fairly safe Tory seat. I can just about believe it though!
Some of the incoming student/lecturer element would hold to their southern habits - simply a matter of voting for what they are familiar with, rather than specifically Scottish politics, which would reduce the SNP vote and favour LDs (as in Edinburgh). But if (as remarked here on PB of late) there is a wider tendency to say to hell with the LDs, we'll have Labour this time to make sure, one can see why both SNP and Slab might do well.
Marina Hyde has a book out. An anthology of her columns, and she has written another column about it. It contains this section
Having lost the news so decisively, I did think the sensible thing to do was to get out of the business of making predictions. Now, you might have noted this decision was not unanimously adopted by my profession. I can’t remember exactly when it hit me, but at a certain point I noticed how often political journalism was about predicting what was coming. We were suddenly awash with discussions about how the various stories were going to play out. Don’t get me wrong, I read and very much enjoyed most of it. But with the best will in the world, I’m not totally sure it’s the job of a journalist to tell you what’s going to happen next, as opposed to what’s just happened. Let’s be clear: the stuff that actually was occurring was wild enough. Even so, increasing amounts of content – particularly about where Brexit would end up – seemed to be a kind of futurology, with speculation about potential scenarios occasionally crowding out analysis of existing developments. I think it comes back to that thing of having lost the news. There was almost a cargo cult element to it all. If we just lay out the flowchart, if we just set out our logical case for how things should develop, then somehow – somehow! – the old familiar certainties will be airdropped back to us. They haven’t been yet – but soon, no doubt. Any day now …
Obviously on a betting site what happens next is of prime importance, but she is right about the majority of political "journalists"
Here is Dan
I started working in politics in 1991. I saw the implosion of Major up close. And the end of New Labour. The Miliband era. May's collapse. Boris blowing it within three years. But I've never seen a more toxic political, communications and policy mix than this. It's unsustainable.
He, and others, have been saying for more than a week now the 45p cut is not sustainable
And yet, it is sustained, and there is no sign of it being ditched by anyone in a position to do so
We are governed by zealots. They have been convincing themselves of this stuff for decades, and don't particularly care that nobody else is convinced. Such people are clearly inferior.
🔥 "Truss-terfucked" 🔥 "Conference will be a shitshow with a capital S" 🔥 "I've got a D in GCSE maths and even I could run the economy better than this bunch of chancers"
Me and @SophiaSleigh on the Tories at war as they gather in Birmingham.
A journalist not knowing that it should be “x and I” not “Me and x”??
There's an argument for "Sophia and me" but it's not "Sophia and I" - you wouldn't say "I on the Tories at war...". You could say "I report on the Tories at war" or "me on the Tories at war".
Waking up this morning to Truss and Kwarteng both interviewed in Tory newspapers. "I had no other choice" and "this will be disruptive and unpopular".
Part of the reason it is so unpopular is this: where is their democratic mandate? Nobody voted for this.
I have answered on here repeatedly that people do not vote for a Prime Minister or a manifesto or a party - legally that isn't how our system works. Whilst that is true, as *people* continue to believe they vote for those things a party in government can't do a Voyager 1 flick and say "we have a majority". You do, but not for this.
How do they imagine it will end? Simon Clarke yesterday said the welfare state was too big. He is Levelling Up Secretary and represents Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. He proposes not just to scrap the levelling up they are waiting for, but to bonfire their mortgages, their pensions, their welfare payments and their services. Vote Conservative? They will destroy him!
This feels like an academic exercise in my politics A-level classes. A mad one. When my lecturers had got drunk the night before and decided "screw it, lets set them a bonkers task". Except it is real. And the consequences on people's lives are real. And the electoral armageddon will be real.
I haven’t read it so can anyone tell me if any of what is unfolding from our new leaders was in the 2019 Conservative Party manifesto?
It matters not.
Does to me, which is why I’m asking
I don't think Covid or Ukrainian war were in the manifesto. Manifesto, from any party is a document of rubbish, you shoild never elect anyone who is so unimaginative that they think governing according to a givecyesr old plan is feasible or desireable. Should be called a Manfester
Ian McGilchrist argues in The Matter with Things that Zeno, of paradox fame, created his enigmas to show that the more you treat reality analytically, the more lose touch with it. That is exactly what the PM and CX are doing. They’ve analysed their “problem” for so long they’ve become blinded by the analysis and lost touch with what the problem actually is. Happens a lot with superficially intelligent people, they can, like Zeno’s paradoxes, superficially argue, with amazing internal logic, facts that have no bearing whatsoever on the outside world.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
For what? For this? Truss says they are burning down everything that went before them and have no choice. The mandate is for what they are burning, not for the fire.
🔥 "Truss-terfucked" 🔥 "Conference will be a shitshow with a capital S" 🔥 "I've got a D in GCSE maths and even I could run the economy better than this bunch of chancers"
Me and @SophiaSleigh on the Tories at war as they gather in Birmingham.
A journalist not knowing that it should be “x and I” not “Me and x”??
There's an argument for "Sophia and me" but it's not "Sophia and I" - you wouldn't say "I on the Tories at war...". You could say "I report on the Tories at war" or "me on the Tories at war".
It's shocking grammar anyway, because it leaves out the verb. Should be 'Sophia and I report on the Tories at war.'
I hesitate to say good morning this morning! We do seem to be doom and gloom. And, I suppose, justifiably. However there is some positivity in the Cole household; an operation which will probably at least hold the deterioration in my dexterity and mobility has been scheduled for later this month and over the next few days the appropriate preparations will be made, so we can look forward to the arrival of great grandson one! Rather than worrying about OKC! And granddaughter three seems to have come out of her Covid related miseries and be doing well at school! Likes sixth form much better!
Best of luck with my spinal colleagues.
Bed situation appalling at my hospital. On Thursday we had 80 patients awaiting an emergency bed. Nottinghamshire has even worse problems:
If Truss wants to collapse Health and Social Care then we are going to be in a very dark place.
I believe the official groupthink - as tested on here by BR - is "people die so what". The good people willl have private medical insurance. The people who die should have worked harder to get it. Its their own fault.
🔥 "Truss-terfucked" 🔥 "Conference will be a shitshow with a capital S" 🔥 "I've got a D in GCSE maths and even I could run the economy better than this bunch of chancers"
Me and @SophiaSleigh on the Tories at war as they gather in Birmingham.
A journalist not knowing that it should be “x and I” not “Me and x”??
The main clause of your question doesn't contain a verb, and you used two question marks. And yet your question was understood, just as the journalist's tweet was easy to follow; that's all that matters.
We can at least say for sure we’re not facing a cult of personality anymore. A cult but there’s no personality to be found.
I'm not sure who described it as "Cargo cult Thatcherism" but I think that's very accurate. They are using the language and pulling the same levers of the economy, but without any real appreciation for what the concepts mean or how they work.
Incidentally Robert, the new boundaries are catastrophic for Lib Dem hopes in North East Fife: the constituency now takes in a large SNP/Lab chunk. Baxter judges it to be a de facto SNP seat now.
Baxter’s prediction for North East Fife (new boundaries), based on yesterday’s YouGov, is:
SNP 40% SLab 31% SLD 20% Grn 4% Con 3%
Have the boundaries changed that much? Which area is now included? I know the seat quite well (I was born there and my folks still live there) and as my dad used to be quite active in the local Labour party I know how minimal Labour support was in the old constituency! I struggle to believe that Labour would do better than the Lib Dems and unless the seat has changed completely I can't see it being anything other than a Lib Dem vs SNP race. That Con 3% is incredible too - at one time this was considered a fairly safe Tory seat. I can just about believe it though!
Some of the incoming student/lecturer element would hold to their southern habits - simply a matter of voting for what they are familiar with, rather than specifically Scottish politics, which would reduce the SNP vote and favour LDs (as in Edinburgh). But if (as remarked here on PB of late) there is a wider tendency to say to hell with the LDs, we'll have Labour this time to make sure, one can see why both SNP and Slab might do well.
If the unionist vote switches to Labour it will be a huge change in the seat. Back in the 90s, when the rest of Fife was a sea of red, this was a Tory vs Lib Dem contest and neither Labour nor the SNP got much of a look in. If it is SNP vs Labour at the next election it really will be a huge change. I don't live there anymore and don't know the new boundaries but still, that Baxter prediction looks really surprising to me. Will be one to watch on election night!
We can at least say for sure we’re not facing a cult of personality anymore. A cult but there’s no personality to be found.
I'm not sure who described it as "Cargo cult Thatcherism" but I think that's very accurate. They are using the language and pulling the same levers of the economy, but without any real appreciation for what the concepts mean or how they work.
I think it was @Nigel_Foremain who described it as cargo cult Thatcherism.
Incidentally Robert, the new boundaries are catastrophic for Lib Dem hopes in North East Fife: the constituency now takes in a large SNP/Lab chunk. Baxter judges it to be a de facto SNP seat now.
Baxter’s prediction for North East Fife (new boundaries), based on yesterday’s YouGov, is:
SNP 40% SLab 31% SLD 20% Grn 4% Con 3%
I didn't see that: well, in which case that is probably the most doomed of the SLD seats, with the caveat that the LDs are masters at persuading people that only they can bear Lab/Con/SNP here.
Edit to add:
I'm probably a bit negative on the SLD chances. That's a Baxtered estimate, using the latest opinion polls, which have a big move to SLab and with the SLDs down.
In the real world, the SLDs will tell everyone in the Lab area, that it's an LD seat, and if they don't vote LD, they'll let the SNP in.
And it might just work. My 50% for the LDs may be generous, but it's not absurd.
You’re assuming that Scottish Labour voters are solidly Unionist. They are not. According to the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey, 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence. Faced with a straight Lib Dem/SNP choice, a big chunk of Labour voters in Fife will choose the SNP. Clegg&Cameron lingers long in the memory!
A vote for the SNP makes a Tory government more likely.
Basic arithmetic failure there.
Even if 100% of Scots voted SNP it would not assist the Conservatives one iota. Because, unlike Labour, the SNP will not do coalition or C&S deals with the Conservatives.
If Scotland returned Labour MPs a Labour majority is more likely. That’s a good thing for the UK and Scottish democracy, which is currently a one party state.
Obviously, the SNP likes being in opposition to a Tory government at Westminster, because it gives their movement energy.
Will that lovely Labour democracy acknowledge Scottish views on Brexit or the right of an elected Scottish government to decide whether to have a vote on membership of the UK Union? Cos that’ll be great.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested
Democratic consent was given at the GE.
But the manifesto (levelling up etc) was very much towards one extreme of conservatism, and this is very much towards another extreme.
In your view is that not a problem? Again, genuinely interested, not trolling.
Manifestos are not binding. We elect representatives to use their best judgement.
The only places where direct democratic consent is needed is where they want to change the rules of the game - voting systems, Scottish independence, Brexit etc
Except that if it's not in the manifesto, any laws required will struggle to get through the Lords.
If it's not in the manifesto and a long way from the mood music of the manifesto, it will struggle to get through the Commons.
TLDR; the things you think are beyond the pale morally, are to another person the only moral answer.
The usual conclusion from the book is that we should be more understanding of others’ political positions - more often than we think our opponents genuinely believe in the moral purpose of what they are doing.
In the case of the extremists in government, I feel there is also another conclusion to draw. If you are weird enough, you can find almost any outcome the ‘moral’ one (cf gulags under communism). So one should be deeply suspicious of one’s own moral certainties.
Given what others have posted about Truss in the last few hours, I’m not sure she will be open to that conclusion though.
I've not read it (although will now add it to the pile), but I did write this a few months ago on Facebook:
Very many moons ago the head of Market Research at the FMCG company I’d recently joined told the fresh faced (mainly Oxbridge) graduates newly enrolled in the marketing department that we should go out on Sunday mornings to the “Paddy’s Market”. He observed that “there are very many more of them than there are of you, and they pay your wages.” Years later a former CEO of that company was sitting on the Board of a major American car manufacturer when the Company CEO scoffed “what does the American consumer know about the car business?” He was gone within months.
Mr. Divvie, would you give the constituent parts of the UK a veto on matters like that in a referendum?
I'm not sure that's right. A British vote should weigh equally. It'd be slightly bonkers if everywhere except Wales wanted to rejoin the EU and the Welsh vote stopped us doing so.
Incidentally Robert, the new boundaries are catastrophic for Lib Dem hopes in North East Fife: the constituency now takes in a large SNP/Lab chunk. Baxter judges it to be a de facto SNP seat now.
Baxter’s prediction for North East Fife (new boundaries), based on yesterday’s YouGov, is:
SNP 40% SLab 31% SLD 20% Grn 4% Con 3%
I didn't see that: well, in which case that is probably the most doomed of the SLD seats, with the caveat that the LDs are masters at persuading people that only they can bear Lab/Con/SNP here.
Edit to add:
I'm probably a bit negative on the SLD chances. That's a Baxtered estimate, using the latest opinion polls, which have a big move to SLab and with the SLDs down.
In the real world, the SLDs will tell everyone in the Lab area, that it's an LD seat, and if they don't vote LD, they'll let the SNP in.
And it might just work. My 50% for the LDs may be generous, but it's not absurd.
You’re assuming that Scottish Labour voters are solidly Unionist. They are not. According to the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey, 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence. Faced with a straight Lib Dem/SNP choice, a big chunk of Labour voters in Fife will choose the SNP. Clegg&Cameron lingers long in the memory!
A vote for the SNP makes a Tory government more likely.
Basic arithmetic failure there.
Even if 100% of Scots voted SNP it would not assist the Conservatives one iota. Because, unlike Labour, the SNP will not do coalition or C&S deals with the Conservatives.
If Scotland returned Labour MPs a Labour majority is more likely. That’s a good thing for the UK and Scottish democracy, which is currently a one party state.
Obviously, the SNP likes being in opposition to a Tory government at Westminster, because it gives their movement energy.
"one party state" - it is actually a minority government and has been for some years. Currently with a degree of cooperative agreement with the SGs.
And not a state. At the moment the one party which takes all the big decisions in the state to which Scotland belongs is the one England votes in, and a pretty pisspoor job they’ve been making of it.
The absolute obscenity of making the poorest fund tax cuts for the richest is the end game of the Brexit chosen by the zealots and ideologues who now run this country. It will be accompanied by environmental degradation and significant further reductions in individual rights and freedoms. This is fundamentalism and like all fundamentalism it is profoundly harmful, so must be defeated.
Our pleasure. Although I wasn’t allowed to watch it when it first aired, being 10 years old, even just the Radio Times cover gave me nightmares at the time.
1) a disastrous out of touch Conference performance.
2) a backbench rebellion means Finance bill fails to pass.
3) Truss and Kamikwase out by Halloween?
For added shits and giggles they have scheduled all major speeches after 4pm. The idea clearly being so that markets cannot tank the economy in real time. Great - so it tanks on the Asian markets overnight then the following morning here.
Truss wants to stamp her authority over this conference. Which is nice. As she is incapable of speaking how does she intend to do this? And then we have what they are saying. Which is "we are masters of the universe and you will kneel before Zod Truss.
Best bit of all? When they are forced to climb back down they will send out Simon Clarke to spin it.
They imagine it will end in victory, crowds cheering and triumphant parades...
It's why those A Level "You are the Prime Minister" lessons are fun to teach- the scenarios nearly always end in disaster and the learning point is "this is all trickier than you might have thought".
Maybe everything that's happening is the fault of her secondary school for not teaching her that properly.
Where is the electoral mandate for this low tax and smaller state economy . Truss and Kwarteng are determined to change the UKs economic model with absolutely no democratic consent .
Nonsense.
She won't have a majority in the Commons for this stuff when it gets back. Forced U-turn incoming, but not until Truss gets to say Thatchers famous line to conference first.
She's not turning, just refining her plans no doubt.
Waking up this morning to Truss and Kwarteng both interviewed in Tory newspapers. "I had no other choice" and "this will be disruptive and unpopular".
Part of the reason it is so unpopular is this: where is their democratic mandate? Nobody voted for this.
I have answered on here repeatedly that people do not vote for a Prime Minister or a manifesto or a party - legally that isn't how our system works. Whilst that is true, as *people* continue to believe they vote for those things a party in government can't do a Voyager 1 flick and say "we have a majority". You do, but not for this.
How do they imagine it will end? Simon Clarke yesterday said the welfare state was too big. He is Levelling Up Secretary and represents Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. He proposes not just to scrap the levelling up they are waiting for, but to bonfire their mortgages, their pensions, their welfare payments and their services. Vote Conservative? They will destroy him!
This feels like an academic exercise in my politics A-level classes. A mad one. When my lecturers had got drunk the night before and decided "screw it, lets set them a bonkers task". Except it is real. And the consequences on people's lives are real. And the electoral armageddon will be real.
There is no explanation for the 'we had to do it' argument. It is a completely pathetic defence. It is now firmly set in peoples minds that that the chaos was caused by their idea to borrow money to give a tax cut to the very richest. The labour party just need to keep repeating this and they have the possibility of destroying the conservative party forever. This would be a tragedy but clearly they deserve it after electing Truss to the leadership and purging all the sane elements. They just aren't a party of government.
Our pleasure. Although I wasn’t allowed to watch it when it first aired, being 10 years old, even just the Radio Times cover gave me nightmares at the time.
I didn't see the War Game for obvious reasons ca 1966, but the Sunday Times colour mag (in the days when ti was seriously good journalism) did a long feature on it and that terrified me too!
Incidentally Robert, the new boundaries are catastrophic for Lib Dem hopes in North East Fife: the constituency now takes in a large SNP/Lab chunk. Baxter judges it to be a de facto SNP seat now.
Baxter’s prediction for North East Fife (new boundaries), based on yesterday’s YouGov, is:
SNP 40% SLab 31% SLD 20% Grn 4% Con 3%
I didn't see that: well, in which case that is probably the most doomed of the SLD seats, with the caveat that the LDs are masters at persuading people that only they can bear Lab/Con/SNP here.
Edit to add:
I'm probably a bit negative on the SLD chances. That's a Baxtered estimate, using the latest opinion polls, which have a big move to SLab and with the SLDs down.
In the real world, the SLDs will tell everyone in the Lab area, that it's an LD seat, and if they don't vote LD, they'll let the SNP in.
And it might just work. My 50% for the LDs may be generous, but it's not absurd.
You’re assuming that Scottish Labour voters are solidly Unionist. They are not. According to the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey, 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence. Faced with a straight Lib Dem/SNP choice, a big chunk of Labour voters in Fife will choose the SNP. Clegg&Cameron lingers long in the memory!
A vote for the SNP makes a Tory government more likely.
Basic arithmetic failure there.
Even if 100% of Scots voted SNP it would not assist the Conservatives one iota. Because, unlike Labour, the SNP will not do coalition or C&S deals with the Conservatives.
If Scotland returned Labour MPs a Labour majority is more likely. That’s a good thing for the UK and Scottish democracy, which is currently a one party state.
Obviously, the SNP likes being in opposition to a Tory government at Westminster, because it gives their movement energy.
"one party state" - it is actually a minority government and has been for some years. Currently with a degree of cooperative agreement with the SGs.
And not a state. At the moment the one party which takes all the big decisions in the state to which Scotland belongs is the one England votes in, and a pretty pisspoor job they’ve been making of it.
There is a state - the UK. But its very multi-national and poorly understood. Most of what the Truss is doing doesn't affect Scotland and NI (the "are you off yer tits love" response from Sturgeon was funny).
As Glaswegians say when coming out of the pub toilet cubicle, "I'd give it a few minutes, pal" before you watch the War Game. Which is perhaps better cinematographically.
They imagine it will end in victory, crowds cheering and triumphant parades...
It's why those A Level "You are the Prime Minister" lessons are fun to teach- the scenarios nearly always end in disaster and the learning point is "this is all trickier than you might have thought".
Maybe everything that's happening is the fault of her secondary school for not teaching her that properly.
If she'd kept to a steady approach typifying her Cabinet career rather than immediately and unnecessarily deciding to try out every silly idea she'd ever had with zero build up perhaps shed8jace been able to do ok.
Did she move so fast as she wanted to get praised at conference or something? People were pushing on the energy stuff but the other stuff could wait
We can at least say for sure we’re not facing a cult of personality anymore. A cult but there’s no personality to be found.
I'm not sure who described it as "Cargo cult Thatcherism" but I think that's very accurate. They are using the language and pulling the same levers of the economy, but without any real appreciation for what the concepts mean or how they work.
I think it was @Nigel_Foremain who described it as cargo cult Thatcherism.
Thanks. Wanted to attribute that but couldn't for the life of me remember who said it - entirely accurate IMHO.
Incidentally Robert, the new boundaries are catastrophic for Lib Dem hopes in North East Fife: the constituency now takes in a large SNP/Lab chunk. Baxter judges it to be a de facto SNP seat now.
Baxter’s prediction for North East Fife (new boundaries), based on yesterday’s YouGov, is:
SNP 40% SLab 31% SLD 20% Grn 4% Con 3%
I didn't see that: well, in which case that is probably the most doomed of the SLD seats, with the caveat that the LDs are masters at persuading people that only they can bear Lab/Con/SNP here.
Edit to add:
I'm probably a bit negative on the SLD chances. That's a Baxtered estimate, using the latest opinion polls, which have a big move to SLab and with the SLDs down.
In the real world, the SLDs will tell everyone in the Lab area, that it's an LD seat, and if they don't vote LD, they'll let the SNP in.
And it might just work. My 50% for the LDs may be generous, but it's not absurd.
You’re assuming that Scottish Labour voters are solidly Unionist. They are not. According to the gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey, 38% of Scottish Labour voters are pro-independence. Faced with a straight Lib Dem/SNP choice, a big chunk of Labour voters in Fife will choose the SNP. Clegg&Cameron lingers long in the memory!
A vote for the SNP makes a Tory government more likely.
Basic arithmetic failure there.
Even if 100% of Scots voted SNP it would not assist the Conservatives one iota. Because, unlike Labour, the SNP will not do coalition or C&S deals with the Conservatives.
If Scotland returned Labour MPs a Labour majority is more likely. That’s a good thing for the UK and Scottish democracy, which is currently a one party state.
Obviously, the SNP likes being in opposition to a Tory government at Westminster, because it gives their movement energy.
"one party state" - it is actually a minority government and has been for some years. Currently with a degree of cooperative agreement with the SGs.
And not a state. At the moment the one party which takes all the big decisions in the state to which Scotland belongs is the one England votes in, and a pretty pisspoor job they’ve been making of it.
There is a state - the UK. But its very multi-national and poorly understood. Most of what the Truss is doing doesn't affect Scotland and NI (the "are you off yer tits love" response from Sturgeon was funny).
It will, though, in the end, because the budgetary changes will feed through.
1) a disastrous out of touch Conference performance.
2) a backbench rebellion means Finance bill fails to pass.
3) Truss and Kamikwase out by Halloween?
For added shits and giggles they have scheduled all major speeches after 4pm. The idea clearly being so that markets cannot tank the economy in real time. Great - so it tanks on the Asian markets overnight then the following morning here.
Truss wants to stamp her authority over this conference. Which is nice. As she is incapable of speaking how does she intend to do this? And then we have what they are saying. Which is "we are masters of the universe and you will kneel before Zod Truss.
Best bit of all? When they are forced to climb back down they will send out Simon Clarke to spin it.
I wonder if they'll go ridiculous and claim they are not backing down even when they are, or go super prissy and moan that the bad media not getting has ruined their chance to give money back to rich people I mean help people.
Comments
Nope. Scottish independence became the choice of the plurality a long time ago, and the choice of the majority recently. The gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey has.
Independence 52%
Devolution (the status quo) 38%
Direct rule (the status quo ante) 8%
And bear in mind that a huge chunk of that 38% supporting devolution are ‘small n’ Scottish nationalists.
Times says HS2 might be cut
What are the teletype bulletins from the last few days as we go about our daily lives?
Gas pipeline to Europe is blown up. Blackouts expected.
Putin announces partial mobilisation, another 300,000 soldiers called up to fight
US announces another $1bn in military aid to Ukraine. $26bn provided so far.
Four Ukrainian provinces annexed by Russia, Putin delivers live TV address
Polish minister warns use of battlefield nukes will be considered an attack on NATO...
As I say, what we are seeing at the moment fits in disturbingly neatly with the Threads timeline, and we are perilously close.
However there is some positivity in the Cole household; an operation which will probably at least hold the deterioration in my dexterity and mobility has been scheduled for later this month and over the next few days the appropriate preparations will be made, so we can look forward to the arrival of great grandson one!
Rather than worrying about OKC!
And granddaughter three seems to have come out of her Covid related miseries and be doing well at school! Likes sixth form much better!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence
Now, in a referendum, could Independence win? Absolutely. Indeed, I might even make it a narrow favourite. But current polling is for a narrow win for the Unionist side.
Terrible news for Leeds.
Oh.
In your view is that not a problem? Again, genuinely interested, not trolling.
But the alternative is that we announce that nuclear blackmail works. That doesn't end well either.
Obviously they switched off the movie(s) before the last act. Those guys always end up dead or in prison.
Excellent news - all the best
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1575866749106327552
It is Truss who benefits, marginally, from having an excuse to u-turn and possibly sack the Chancellor.
https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1575975278652043264
Vote SLAB and have a say in the UK government is going to have some appeal at the next GE.
But it won't be great, probably, if you're in the south and outside of London. Although they often get ignored by all sides.
Edit – none of the above beat me to it.
Bed situation appalling at my hospital. On Thursday we had 80 patients awaiting an emergency bed. Nottinghamshire has even worse problems:
https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/nottingham-news/nottinghamshire-hospitals-plea-help-staff-7651802
If Truss wants to collapse Health and Social Care then we are going to be in a very dark place.
The only places where direct democratic consent is needed is where they want to change the rules of the game - voting systems, Scottish independence, Brexit etc
🔥 "Conference will be a shitshow with a capital S"
🔥 "I've got a D in GCSE maths and even I could run the economy better than this bunch of chancers"
Me and @SophiaSleigh on the Tories at war as they gather in Birmingham.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/liz-truss-battling-to-show-mps-she-is-up-to-the-job_uk_6336a771e4b028164528b45e
Obviously I'm concerned with the bed situation. However the secretary who phoned me yesterday to make the arrangements seemed quite confident.
Very pleasant and positive lady!
That Con 3% is incredible too - at one time this was considered a fairly safe Tory seat. I can just about believe it though!
Having lost the news so decisively, I did think the sensible thing to do was to get out of the business of making predictions. Now, you might have noted this decision was not unanimously adopted by my profession. I can’t remember exactly when it hit me, but at a certain point I noticed how often political journalism was about predicting what was coming. We were suddenly awash with discussions about how the various stories were going to play out. Don’t get me wrong, I read and very much enjoyed most of it. But with the best will in the world, I’m not totally sure it’s the job of a journalist to tell you what’s going to happen next, as opposed to what’s just happened. Let’s be clear: the stuff that actually was occurring was wild enough. Even so, increasing amounts of content – particularly about where Brexit would end up – seemed to be a kind of futurology, with speculation about potential scenarios occasionally crowding out analysis of existing developments. I think it comes back to that thing of having lost the news. There was almost a cargo cult element to it all. If we just lay out the flowchart, if we just set out our logical case for how things should develop, then somehow – somehow! – the old familiar certainties will be airdropped back to us.
They haven’t been yet – but soon, no doubt. Any day now …
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/01/marina-hyde-on-six-years-of-political-chaos-brexit-boris-trump-truss
Obviously on a betting site what happens next is of prime importance, but she is right about the majority of political "journalists"
Here is Dan
I started working in politics in 1991. I saw the implosion of Major up close. And the end of New Labour. The Miliband era. May's collapse. Boris blowing it within three years. But I've never seen a more toxic political, communications and policy mix than this. It's unsustainable.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1576099151016005632
He, and others, have been saying for more than a week now the 45p cut is not sustainable
And yet, it is sustained, and there is no sign of it being ditched by anyone in a position to do so
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-63098117
I particularly like: ""I wrote heavy duty software for 20 years," Mr Musk says." . Like f**k did he - and his coding skills at X.com and elsewhere were not necessarily widely regarded.
Another example of Musk bein a self-grandising bullshitter.
Also, this reminded me of Joan Didion: '"I did what I thought was right.” How many madmen have said it and meant it? How many murderers?'
https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1576108415549526016/photo/1
If it's not in the manifesto and a long way from the mood music of the manifesto, it will struggle to get through the Commons.
On the budget, I would still defend it in a devil's advocate way. It was obviously politically inept to do something that was seen as a giveaway to the rich at this time, but I think that returning to a simpler two-tier income tax system is a good thing.
1) a disastrous out of touch Conference performance.
2) a backbench rebellion means Finance bill fails to pass.
3) Truss and Kamikwase out by Halloween?
Part of the reason it is so unpopular is this: where is their democratic mandate? Nobody voted for this.
I have answered on here repeatedly that people do not vote for a Prime Minister or a manifesto or a party - legally that isn't how our system works. Whilst that is true, as *people* continue to believe they vote for those things a party in government can't do a Voyager 1 flick and say "we have a majority". You do, but not for this.
How do they imagine it will end? Simon Clarke yesterday said the welfare state was too big. He is Levelling Up Secretary and represents Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. He proposes not just to scrap the levelling up they are waiting for, but to bonfire their mortgages, their pensions, their welfare payments and their services. Vote Conservative? They will destroy him!
This feels like an academic exercise in my politics A-level classes. A mad one. When my lecturers had got drunk the night before and decided "screw it, lets set them a bonkers task". Except it is real. And the consequences on people's lives are real. And the electoral armageddon will be real.
Manifesto, from any party is a document of rubbish, you shoild never elect anyone who is so unimaginative that they think governing according to a givecyesr old plan is feasible or desireable.
Should be called a Manfester
So, we want you to be Sec of State for Levelling-up
Great. That means redistribution?
Er, no
Helping most deprived?
Er, no
It means geographical fairness?
Er, no
So what is it?
You argue for tax cuts - and public spending cuts
I’ll do it
https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1576111490113081344
"I had to do it"
"I did what I thought was right"
Thanks, you bastards
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1576113649462435840
Will that lovely Labour democracy acknowledge Scottish views on Brexit or the right of an elected Scottish government to decide whether to have a vote on membership of the UK Union? Cos that’ll be great.
I'm not sure that's right. A British vote should weigh equally. It'd be slightly bonkers if everywhere except Wales wanted to rejoin the EU and the Welsh vote stopped us doing so.
At the moment the one party which takes all the big decisions in the state to which Scotland belongs is the one England votes in, and a pretty pisspoor job they’ve been making of it.
https://www.crazyaboutmagazines.com/ourshop/prod_1230357-Radio-Times-magazine-Picking-Up-The-Threads-cover-2228-September-1984.html
Truss wants to stamp her authority over this conference. Which is nice. As she is incapable of speaking how does she intend to do this? And then we have what they are saying. Which is "we are masters of the universe and you will kneel before
ZodTruss.Best bit of all? When they are forced to climb back down they will send out Simon Clarke to spin it.
Maybe everything that's happening is the fault of her secondary school for not teaching her that properly.
and
Pictures
Justwatch is quite useful. It seems to be on Britbox.
It is now firmly set in peoples minds that that the chaos was caused by their idea to borrow money to give a tax cut to the very richest.
The labour party just need to keep repeating this and they have the possibility of destroying the conservative party forever. This would be a tragedy but clearly they deserve it after electing Truss to the leadership and purging all the sane elements. They just aren't a party of government.
Did she move so fast as she wanted to get praised at conference or something? People were pushing on the energy stuff but the other stuff could wait