"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
I would imagine that Russian bombers capable of carrying nukes are seen near Finland quite a lot, given Finland borders Russia. I think they’re occasionally seen round these parts.
Who is the unity candidate for Tory party MPs realising that they face certain disaster at the polls unless Truss is replaced. They would have a year to 18 months to turn things around. Cometh the hour....
Probably Tugendhat, no known enemies If not Wallace if he will serve
Things moving fast around Lyman, Russian sources saying Ukrainians have pushed at least 15 km beyond the town and there is a certain amount of Russian panic that they cannot seal the line. As Lyman falls, the whole front could be ripped open for the second time in a month. Could see Svatove and Kreminna under attack quite quickly.
Just a reminder that there is no direct Western involvement in the war to this point, and if there were, there would probably be no functioning Russian army left.
Everything Putin is doing is making a crushing defeat more and more likely. If he were insane enough to go "even slightly" nuclear, then the West and quite probably China -note the heavy silence in Beijing- would take the place apart.
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
How can you tell they are carrying nuclear weapons just by looking at them?
NYT ($) DeSantis, Once a ‘No’ on Storm Aid, Petitions a President He’s Bashed The Florida governor, who as a congressman opposed aid to victims of Hurricane Sandy, is seeking relief from the Biden administration as Hurricane Ian ravages his own state.
As a freshman congressman in 2013, Ron DeSantis was unambiguous: A federal bailout for the New York region after Hurricane Sandy was an irresponsible boondoggle, a symbol of the “put it on the credit card mentality” he had come to Washington to oppose.
“I sympathize with the victims,” he said. But his answer was no.
Nearly a decade later, as his state confronts the devastation and costly destruction wrought by Hurricane Ian, Mr. DeSantis is appealing to the nation’s better angels — and betting on its short memory.
“As you say, Tucker, we live in a very politicized time,” Mr. DeSantis, now Florida’s governor, told Tucker Carlson on Wednesday night, outlining his request for full federal reimbursement up front for 60 days and urging the Biden administration to do the right thing. “But you know, when people are fighting for their lives, when their whole livelihood is at stake, when they’ve lost everything — if you can’t put politics aside for that, then you’re just not going to be able to.”
SSI - Two Fuckers doing what they do best: bull-shitting.
DeSantis is an utter git, but Biden is a grownup, so it won’t effect federal aid.
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
No need to add to *the fear*. That's definitely spring. May Day parade somewhere?
Yes thats certainly not clandestine movement of ordnance into position for nefarious attack. It is very 'parade'
Tho of course Putin might do it like this deliberately, in a flamboyant paradey way, to freak us out
Nonetheless I reckon the vid is bogus. The trees are coming into leaf, like something almost being said. It's April or May, not Sept
Youll know if Russia is moving ordnance into nuclear exchange formation, we will be vastly increasing air patrols, there will be constant TV chatter etc.
Jens Stoltenberg (who's really bad in front of a mic) didn't say Ukraine had the right to reconquer territory even if it means nuclear war. His words seemed quite mild and he didn't announce any NATO response to today's incorporation of four territories by Russia. But all eyes will soon be on Lyman. In return for allowing an evacuation, is it possible that Ukraine might demand a concession that Russia could actually make? People say 2000 isn't a big number, but in this context it is. Neither a surrender nor a killing of them all is on the cards.
Who is the unity candidate for Tory party MPs realising that they face certain disaster at the polls unless Truss is replaced. They would have a year to 18 months to turn things around. Cometh the hour....
Probably Tugendhat, no known enemies
Tugendhat has one month's experience in government. It would be crazy to make him leader. The only 'safe pair of hands' options would be May or possibly Hunt.
Back in February at the start of the war I ran a location assessment to work out where to go in the event nuclear war looked likely, and what the trigger would be.
For the trigger, unless your job and family situation allows, it’s not feasible to go very early and sit it out in a far flung location. We need to late enough that we’re not blowing our children’s schooling or my job.
But leave it too late and you’re in the rush with millions of others and might struggle to make it out. Our current trigger is detonation of a tactical nuke by Putin.
Location wise I followed the scorecard approach I take at work when I’m advising multinationals on where to put a new operation. Variables were speed and cost to get there and back, Covid and visa entry requirements, number of flights per week, agricultural self sufficiency, cost and standard of living, distance from blast and fallout, and avoiding flight paths over potential targets.
Narrowed it down to Morocco or Ireland. Asia involved flying over CIS and E Europe and was too restrictive on entry requirements. S America also too difficult with visas and Covid rules for a quick getaway, and expensive to get to and back.
Morocco was first choice. I think on balance it still is, but Ireland still in the running.
In the event that nuclear war looks likely, I will make a headlong rush for the drinks cabinet.
There will, after all, be no need to worry about trifling things like livers and hangovers in the future.
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
How can you tell they are carrying nuclear weapons just by looking at them?
Those do look like the ICBMs Russia swanks around in parades. But as has been noted, the vid is surely fake, the foliage is all wrong. Ignore
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
How can you tell they are carrying nuclear weg apons just by looking at them?
Generally you can´t but they are always assumed to be nuclear capable. Incidentally the 70 year old Bear (Tu 95) is often intercepted by the RAF in the North Sea or the Norwegian Sea, and they are always intercepted on the assumption that they are carrying nukes.
That's the end of the speech. As I said from day 1, the purpose of what Putin is doing in Ukraine is to throw the West off its pedestal. This isn't about NATO or Ukraine, this is the big play to replace the current world order.
If that is correct, then Putin is failing miserably. Sadly there is no other option than he bangs his head against a nuclear NATO wall about 20% of the way in to Ukraine and gets humiliated in front of the rest of the world. No one buys his bizarre rantings about fighting western colonialism with his own colonial war. I guess it is all for a domestic consumption anyway.
im just reading a book on Putin and apparently he blew up apartment blocks in Moscow ie killed his own people to give him an excuse to launch air strikes against grozny and propel him to the presidency...the man is utterly ruthless and very deceptive...a dangerous enemy
Yep, he’s a fuckwit. Same as the people who work for and support him.
Who is the unity candidate for Tory party MPs realising that they face certain disaster at the polls unless Truss is replaced. They would have a year to 18 months to turn things around. Cometh the hour....
Probably Tugendhat, no known enemies
Tugendhat has one month's experience in government. It would be crazy to make him leader. The only 'safe pair of hands' options would be May or possibly Hunt.
He's about the only proper unity candidate though. Hunt is just too far from the Spartans etc to hold it together i think, hes yesterdays man May is possible, yes, but would be 'take us gently into the twilight' leader for the Tories
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
No need to add to *the fear*. That's definitely spring. May Day parade somewhere?
Yes thats certainly not clandestine movement of ordnance into position for nefarious attack. It is very 'parade'
Tho of course Putin might do it like this deliberately, in a flamboyant paradey way, to freak us out
Nonetheless I reckon the vid is bogus. The trees are coming into leaf, like something almost being said. It's April or May, not Sept
Youll know if Russia is moving ordnance into nuclear exchange formation, we will be vastly increasing air patrols, there will be constant TV chatter etc.
A thought occurred to me just now. At some point the UKG - if we have one - will have to step up civil defence preparations, just in case
When was the last time we had a Duck and Cover advert on telly? Ages ago. So no one knows what to do, no one understands how useful it is to hide with a torch under the kitchen table if a 19 megaton ICBM slams into next door's garage
Seriously. The government will need to explain sirens and all that stuff, if this situation persists. That'll be a fun moment
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 1h NEW: I understand “multiple” Conservative MPs are in talks with Labour in Parliament to defeat elements of the “mini-budget. Particular focus on 45p rate. Focus is on sending a signal to markets.
Edit: One of the MPs is Liz Truss (probably)
If enough of them rebel over a vote on supply then the likelihood of an election greatly increases. The normal response to this would be withdrawal of the whip, ergo the effective loss of Truss's Parliamentary majority.
If you're a Tory MP convinced your seat is beyond saving why not stand up and risk having the whip withdrawn?
“America is fully prepared with our NATO allies to defend every single inch of NATO territory … Mr. Putin, don’t misunderstand what I’m saying. Every inch.”
— Biden sends message to Putin following nuclear threats and annexation of Ukrainian land before announcing new sanctions
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
No need to add to *the fear*. That's definitely spring. May Day parade somewhere?
Yes thats certainly not clandestine movement of ordnance into position for nefarious attack. It is very 'parade'
Tho of course Putin might do it like this deliberately, in a flamboyant paradey way, to freak us out
Nonetheless I reckon the vid is bogus. The trees are coming into leaf, like something almost being said. It's April or May, not Sept
Youll know if Russia is moving ordnance into nuclear exchange formation, we will be vastly increasing air patrols, there will be constant TV chatter etc.
A thought occurred to me just now. At some point the UKG - if we have one - will have to step up civil defence preparations, just in case
When was the last time we had a Duck and Cover advert on telly? Ages ago. So no one knows what to do, no one understand how useful it is to hide with a torch under the kitchen table if a 19 megaton ICBM slams into next door's garage
Seriously. The government will need to explain sirens and all that stuff, if this situation persists. That'll be a fun moment
There are no air raid sirens any more. The 4 minute warning no longer exists. They might reinstate '3 bangs' fallout warnings
Back in February at the start of the war I ran a location assessment to work out where to go in the event nuclear war looked likely, and what the trigger would be.
For the trigger, unless your job and family situation allows, it’s not feasible to go very early and sit it out in a far flung location. We need to late enough that we’re not blowing our children’s schooling or my job.
But leave it too late and you’re in the rush with millions of others and might struggle to make it out. Our current trigger is detonation of a tactical nuke by Putin.
Location wise I followed the scorecard approach I take at work when I’m advising multinationals on where to put a new operation. Variables were speed and cost to get there and back, Covid and visa entry requirements, number of flights per week, agricultural self sufficiency, cost and standard of living, distance from blast and fallout, and avoiding flight paths over potential targets.
Narrowed it down to Morocco or Ireland. Asia involved flying over CIS and E Europe and was too restrictive on entry requirements. S America also too difficult with visas and Covid rules for a quick getaway, and expensive to get to and back.
Morocco was first choice. I think on balance it still is, but Ireland still in the running.
In the event that nuclear war looks likely, I will make a headlong rush for the drinks cabinet.
There will, after all, be no need to worry about trifling things like livers and hangovers in the future.
If LA turned into an apocalyptic wasteland, how would you tell?
“America is fully prepared with our NATO allies to defend every single inch of NATO territory … Mr. Putin, don’t misunderstand what I’m saying. Every inch.”
— Biden sends message to Putin following nuclear threats and annexation of Ukrainian land before announcing new sanctions
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
Those are mobile ICBM launchers. There would be no need to move them up to the border, because they have the range pretty much to hit anywhere from anywhere.
The ones you want to look out for are the Iskanders. They're the ones with modest ranged nuclear missiles, but the difficulty there is that they're used with non-nuclear warheads too, so pretty difficult to tell whether you're seeinga nuke being moved into range to fire.
Breaking911 @Breaking911 · 2m BIDEN TO PUTIN: "America is fully prepared with our NATO allies to defend every single inch of NATO territory, every single inch. Mr. Putin, don't misunderstand what I'm saying. Every inch."
Who is the unity candidate for Tory party MPs realising that they face certain disaster at the polls unless Truss is replaced. They would have a year to 18 months to turn things around. Cometh the hour....
Probably Tugendhat, no known enemies
Tugendhat has one month's experience in government. It would be crazy to make him leader. The only 'safe pair of hands' options would be May or possibly Hunt.
It's hard to imagine the MPs uniting behind anyone for the next GE.
Things moving fast around Lyman, Russian sources saying Ukrainians have pushed at least 15 km beyond the town and there is a certain amount of Russian panic that they cannot seal the line. As Lyman falls, the whole front could be ripped open for the second time in a month. Could see Svatove and Kreminna under attack quite quickly.
Just a reminder that there is no direct Western involvement in the war to this point, and if there were, there would probably be no functioning Russian army left.
Everything Putin is doing is making a crushing defeat more and more likely. If he were insane enough to go "even slightly" nuclear, then the West and quite probably China -note the heavy silence in Beijing- would take the place apart.
This. 100x this.
Putin is talking big bollx purely for domestic reasons, particularly attempting to placate the even-more-loony-than-him ultra-nazi nationalists.
China is gonna go ape if he breaks the nuke taboo because Taiwan will engineer a nuke protection at double quick speed. The genie will be out of the bottle.
Sadly I can’t speak Russian. What’s that they’re singing? Is it “Whistle a Happy Tune” from the King and I?
Look at the streets around them in the long shots. It's a couple of pens for a few thousand people bussed in for the regime. This in a city of 12m people.
The BBC certainly showed clips and it is obviously a much smaller crowd then Russian propaganda would have you believe
Perhaps Mad Vlad's good buddy the Sage > Security Risk of Mar-a-Lardo can lend him a hand, via 45's own proven "fuzzy math" re: crowd "estimates"?
The irony is that, if the USA was at present *enjoying* President Trump's 2nd term, we'd probably be at less risk of going to all out war and global death. Coz Trump would have said Sure, have Ukraine, & Putin would have taken half of Ukraine, end of story
You're probably right: the US would have done f*ck all, the Germans would have done practically nothing, and we probably wouldn't have been able to do enough.
That said... it is worth remembering that the Ukrainians stopped the initial advance before much (if any) aid arrived.
Who is the unity candidate for Tory party MPs realising that they face certain disaster at the polls unless Truss is replaced. They would have a year to 18 months to turn things around. Cometh the hour....
Probably Tugendhat, no known enemies
Tugendhat has one month's experience in government. It would be crazy to make him leader. The only 'safe pair of hands' options would be May or possibly Hunt.
He's about the only proper unity candidate though. Hunt is just too far from the Spartans etc to hold it together i think, hes yesterdays man May is possible, yes, but would be 'take us gently into the twilight' leader for the Tories
That's the point though. Going gently into the twilight with some of the nicer bits of jewellery still intact might be about the best the blue team can aspire to now.
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
No need to add to *the fear*. That's definitely spring. May Day parade somewhere?
Yes thats certainly not clandestine movement of ordnance into position for nefarious attack. It is very 'parade'
Tho of course Putin might do it like this deliberately, in a flamboyant paradey way, to freak us out
Nonetheless I reckon the vid is bogus. The trees are coming into leaf, like something almost being said. It's April or May, not Sept
Youll know if Russia is moving ordnance into nuclear exchange formation, we will be vastly increasing air patrols, there will be constant TV chatter etc.
A thought occurred to me just now. At some point the UKG - if we have one - will have to step up civil defence preparations, just in case
When was the last time we had a Duck and Cover advert on telly? Ages ago. So no one knows what to do, no one understand how useful it is to hide with a torch under the kitchen table if a 19 megaton ICBM slams into next door's garage
Seriously. The government will need to explain sirens and all that stuff, if this situation persists. That'll be a fun moment
There are no air raid sirens any more. The 4 minute warning no longer exists. They might reinstate '3 bangs' fallout warnings
"Arm founder says the UK has no chance of tech sovereignty. Government fritters away homegrown technologies and has no strategy to lessen reliance on other countries"
Hauser - a forriner - does not understand Britain's strategic needs and interests. We do not need to be tech sovereign. We need to have Tory shills make a fast profit from flogging everything off to the easiest bidder.
Sadly I can’t speak Russian. What’s that they’re singing? Is it “Whistle a Happy Tune” from the King and I?
Look at the streets around them in the long shots. It's a couple of pens for a few thousand people bussed in for the regime. This in a city of 12m people.
The BBC certainly showed clips and it is obviously a much smaller crowd then Russian propaganda would have you believe
Perhaps Mad Vlad's good buddy the Sage > Security Risk of Mar-a-Lardo can lend him a hand, via 45's own proven "fuzzy math" re: crowd "estimates"?
The irony is that, if the USA was at present *enjoying* President Trump's 2nd term, we'd probably be at less risk of going to all out war and global death. Coz Trump would have said Sure, have Ukraine, & Putin would have taken half of Ukraine, end of story
You're probably right: the US would have done f*ck all, the Germans would have done practically nothing, and we probably wouldn't have been able to do enough.
That said... it is worth remembering that the Ukrainians stopped the initial advance before much (if any) aid arrived.
If Putin had taken half of Ukr without a word then he would be marching into the Baltics by now.
Not that Trump would care.
I am surprise that Putin isn't trying to just freeze the Ukr war as much as possible and then just sit and wait for Trump to return in Jan 25.
Perhaps he doesn't have the time as an old man in a hurry.
Who is the unity candidate for Tory party MPs realising that they face certain disaster at the polls unless Truss is replaced. They would have a year to 18 months to turn things around. Cometh the hour....
Probably Tugendhat, no known enemies
Tugendhat has one month's experience in government. It would be crazy to make him leader. The only 'safe pair of hands' options would be May or possibly Hunt.
He's about the only proper unity candidate though. Hunt is just too far from the Spartans etc to hold it together i think, hes yesterdays man May is possible, yes, but would be 'take us gently into the twilight' leader for the Tories
That's the point though. Going gently into the twilight with some of the nicer bits of jewellery still intact might be about the best the blue team can aspire to now.
I wonder if you offered them 210 seats at a GE if they'd 'bank' right now?
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
How can you tell they are carrying nuclear weapons just by looking at them?
Those do look like the ICBMs Russia swanks around in parades. But as has been noted, the vid is surely fake, the foliage is all wrong. Ignore
If they're ICBMs they shouldn't have to move them at all to be able to hit anything. Good spot on the foliage.
Things moving fast around Lyman, Russian sources saying Ukrainians have pushed at least 15 km beyond the town and there is a certain amount of Russian panic that they cannot seal the line. As Lyman falls, the whole front could be ripped open for the second time in a month. Could see Svatove and Kreminna under attack quite quickly.
Just a reminder that there is no direct Western involvement in the war to this point, and if there were, there would probably be no functioning Russian army left.
Everything Putin is doing is making a crushing defeat more and more likely. If he were insane enough to go "even slightly" nuclear, then the West and quite probably China -note the heavy silence in Beijing- would take the place apart.
If Russia were so stupid, China would be capable and content to seize everything East of the Urals.
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
No need to add to *the fear*. That's definitely spring. May Day parade somewhere?
Yes thats certainly not clandestine movement of ordnance into position for nefarious attack. It is very 'parade'
Tho of course Putin might do it like this deliberately, in a flamboyant paradey way, to freak us out
Nonetheless I reckon the vid is bogus. The trees are coming into leaf, like something almost being said. It's April or May, not Sept
Youll know if Russia is moving ordnance into nuclear exchange formation, we will be vastly increasing air patrols, there will be constant TV chatter etc.
A thought occurred to me just now. At some point the UKG - if we have one - will have to step up civil defence preparations, just in case
When was the last time we had a Duck and Cover advert on telly? Ages ago. So no one knows what to do, no one understand how useful it is to hide with a torch under the kitchen table if a 19 megaton ICBM slams into next door's garage
Seriously. The government will need to explain sirens and all that stuff, if this situation persists. That'll be a fun moment
There are no air raid sirens any more. The 4 minute warning no longer exists. They might reinstate '3 bangs' fallout warnings
If things do progress towards DEFCON 1 it’s a shame the late Queen won’t be there to speak to the nation.
Back in February at the start of the war I ran a location assessment to work out where to go in the event nuclear war looked likely, and what the trigger would be.
For the trigger, unless your job and family situation allows, it’s not feasible to go very early and sit it out in a far flung location. We need to late enough that we’re not blowing our children’s schooling or my job.
But leave it too late and you’re in the rush with millions of others and might struggle to make it out. Our current trigger is detonation of a tactical nuke by Putin.
Location wise I followed the scorecard approach I take at work when I’m advising multinationals on where to put a new operation. Variables were speed and cost to get there and back, Covid and visa entry requirements, number of flights per week, agricultural self sufficiency, cost and standard of living, distance from blast and fallout, and avoiding flight paths over potential targets.
Narrowed it down to Morocco or Ireland. Asia involved flying over CIS and E Europe and was too restrictive on entry requirements. S America also too difficult with visas and Covid rules for a quick getaway, and expensive to get to and back.
Morocco was first choice. I think on balance it still is, but Ireland still in the running.
In the event that nuclear war looks likely, I will make a headlong rush for the drinks cabinet.
There will, after all, be no need to worry about trifling things like livers and hangovers in the future.
I’ve got an unopened bottle of very good Glen Garioch I was keeping for Scottish Independence day. I think I could probably drink it in 4 minutes if I had to.
Things moving fast around Lyman, Russian sources saying Ukrainians have pushed at least 15 km beyond the town and there is a certain amount of Russian panic that they cannot seal the line. As Lyman falls, the whole front could be ripped open for the second time in a month. Could see Svatove and Kreminna under attack quite quickly.
Just a reminder that there is no direct Western involvement in the war to this point, and if there were, there would probably be no functioning Russian army left.
Everything Putin is doing is making a crushing defeat more and more likely. If he were insane enough to go "even slightly" nuclear, then the West and quite probably China -note the heavy silence in Beijing- would take the place apart.
If Russia were so stupid, China would be capable and content to seize everything East of the Urals.
Putin's speech showed an obvious blindspot about China when he invoked the unequal treaties but forgot that Russia was a major beneficiary in territory that it still holds today.
"Polish officials said on Friday they had distributed anti-radiation tablets to fire departments nationwide in case of exposure triggered by the war in neighbouring Ukraine, while denying there was cause for alarm."
Officials said it was a routine initiative “in case of a potential radiation threat, which… at the moment does not exist.”"
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
No need to add to *the fear*. That's definitely spring. May Day parade somewhere?
Yes thats certainly not clandestine movement of ordnance into position for nefarious attack. It is very 'parade'
Tho of course Putin might do it like this deliberately, in a flamboyant paradey way, to freak us out
Nonetheless I reckon the vid is bogus. The trees are coming into leaf, like something almost being said. It's April or May, not Sept
Youll know if Russia is moving ordnance into nuclear exchange formation, we will be vastly increasing air patrols, there will be constant TV chatter etc.
A thought occurred to me just now. At some point the UKG - if we have one - will have to step up civil defence preparations, just in case
When was the last time we had a Duck and Cover advert on telly? Ages ago. So no one knows what to do, no one understand how useful it is to hide with a torch under the kitchen table if a 19 megaton ICBM slams into next door's garage
Seriously. The government will need to explain sirens and all that stuff, if this situation persists. That'll be a fun moment
There are no air raid sirens any more. The 4 minute warning no longer exists. They might reinstate '3 bangs' fallout warnings
If things do progress towards DEFCON 1 it’s a shame the late Queen won’t be there to speak to the nation.
Nor will Bozza Bear calm the nation any more. Whitty already looks like he has stared into an open nuclear reactor for hours unprotected so he might have to be the voice and face of armageddon
Who is the unity candidate for Tory party MPs realising that they face certain disaster at the polls unless Truss is replaced. They would have a year to 18 months to turn things around. Cometh the hour....
Probably Tugendhat, no known enemies
Tugendhat has one month's experience in government. It would be crazy to make him leader. The only 'safe pair of hands' options would be May or possibly Hunt.
It's hard to imagine the MPs uniting behind anyone for the next GE.
Whoever it is, I strongly suspect that MPs leaflets will not feature them, but instead focus on very local issues as they go down with the ship.
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
No need to add to *the fear*. That's definitely spring. May Day parade somewhere?
Yes thats certainly not clandestine movement of ordnance into position for nefarious attack. It is very 'parade'
Tho of course Putin might do it like this deliberately, in a flamboyant paradey way, to freak us out
Nonetheless I reckon the vid is bogus. The trees are coming into leaf, like something almost being said. It's April or May, not Sept
Youll know if Russia is moving ordnance into nuclear exchange formation, we will be vastly increasing air patrols, there will be constant TV chatter etc.
A thought occurred to me just now. At some point the UKG - if we have one - will have to step up civil defence preparations, just in case
When was the last time we had a Duck and Cover advert on telly? Ages ago. So no one knows what to do, no one understand how useful it is to hide with a torch under the kitchen table if a 19 megaton ICBM slams into next door's garage
Seriously. The government will need to explain sirens and all that stuff, if this situation persists. That'll be a fun moment
There are no air raid sirens any more. The 4 minute warning no longer exists. They might reinstate '3 bangs' fallout warnings
If things do progress towards DEFCON 1 it’s a shame the late Queen won’t be there to speak to the nation.
Nor will Bozza Bear calm the nation any more. Whitty already looks like he has stared into an open nuclear reactor for hours unprotected so he might have to be the voice and face of armageddon
"Polish officials said on Friday they had distributed anti-radiation tablets to fire departments nationwide in case of exposure triggered by the war in neighbouring Ukraine, while denying there was cause for alarm."
Officials said it was a routine initiative “in case of a potential radiation threat, which… at the moment does not exist.”"
A government boasting of spending 6.5% of GDP on energy subsidies. That's insane.
Is Liz shifting towards Corbynism? It would make a kind of sense: there's a big political hole to be filled now that Labour have vacated it, and it would be a good launchpad from which to attack the capitalist, free-market City spivs who scuppered her budget. What's she got to lose?
Putin is not going to nuke the West because MAD, silly.
But the New Yorker article upthread is essential reading because it provides a framework for thinking through what his - and the West’s options are.
I believe he is playing for time - mobilisation may save him yet - with one finger on the trigger of something non-nuclear - some chemical weapon, say, to be used on Ukrainian forces in the Donbas, or the Ukrainian population Kiev, or Kherson.
Thereby he hopes that the West will back down and concede (de facto) his annexations, which he can sell as a win.
The West on the other hand must be aiming to deter that - by promising suitable retribution, as we have done - and continuing efforts to support Ukrainian advances.
But I can’t see Putin backing down, as it invites his own destruction. For the West, it seems like the most optimistic case is now Putin’s ouster, occasioned either by heavy losses in Ukraine and/or civil discontent, and Russian withdrawal.
I’d put the chances of chemical escalation at 20%, nuclear escalation (within Ukraine) at 5%, and all-out nuclear apocalypse at less than 1%.
Separately, I’d suggest that the chances of a Korean style partition, heavily militarised on both sides, at 50%. Less likely (40%) is a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine to a greater or lesser degree, even less likely a comprehensive Russian defeat and occupation of Ukraine (10%).
Back in February at the start of the war I ran a location assessment to work out where to go in the event nuclear war looked likely, and what the trigger would be.
For the trigger, unless your job and family situation allows, it’s not feasible to go very early and sit it out in a far flung location. We need to late enough that we’re not blowing our children’s schooling or my job.
But leave it too late and you’re in the rush with millions of others and might struggle to make it out. Our current trigger is detonation of a tactical nuke by Putin.
Location wise I followed the scorecard approach I take at work when I’m advising multinationals on where to put a new operation. Variables were speed and cost to get there and back, Covid and visa entry requirements, number of flights per week, agricultural self sufficiency, cost and standard of living, distance from blast and fallout, and avoiding flight paths over potential targets.
Narrowed it down to Morocco or Ireland. Asia involved flying over CIS and E Europe and was too restrictive on entry requirements. S America also too difficult with visas and Covid rules for a quick getaway, and expensive to get to and back.
Morocco was first choice. I think on balance it still is, but Ireland still in the running.
I'd not survive long anyway, because... medical supplies.
So, we'd sit here in rural Dorset and drink our best wine first, until fall-out, starvation, marauding refugees from the cities, or the end of said medical supplies finished us off.
But cheer up - it's not going to happen. Putin's bluffing.
Trouble is, an awful lot of well-informed people on social media and elsewhere think Putin might not be bluffing. The short-arse Russian is in deep shit, and also pretty crazy now
Who are these people? With all respect Leon you aren't averse to hysteria and I'm sure there are a fair few people making a living from spreading it.
I'm strangely relaxed about the prospect of armageddon. As a single man I'm probably quite expendable and prepared to take the risk of staring down Mr Putin. I do have nieces and nephews though which gives me pause for thought.
As for locations, have you considered Penarth? It's raining cats and dogs down this way but you'd be safe for a while at least unless Vlad drops the big one on Wales.
@leon is a couple of years older than me, so would have spent his teens in the latter stages of the cold war. He must have been a permanent gibbering wreck, cacking his pants every time Frankie Goes to Hollywood's Two Tribes came on the radio, or Sting sang his lament about how he hoped Russians loved their children too (which let's face it is now in some doubt)
Yes I do personally recall the Cold War
I remember Duck and Cover. And that silent shrill sense of Eeek, in the back of your mind. What if they drop the bomb? It was a persistent and perturbing background murmur. Like a hummadruz
And this new emergency feels magnitudes worse and more unnerving, because it has spiralled out of nowhere in a world already thrown out of kilter by plague. I do NOT remember the Cuban Missile Crisis - I'm not that old - but I suspect this is even more perilous a moment than that
Weren’t you high for most of the 80s ?
I suspect it’s not more perilous than Cuba - for a relatively short period of time that was maybe 50/50. And the logic of deterrence and communication of intentions hadn’t fully been thought through at that time. Though Putin is probably less rational than Krushchev.
Things moving fast around Lyman, Russian sources saying Ukrainians have pushed at least 15 km beyond the town and there is a certain amount of Russian panic that they cannot seal the line. As Lyman falls, the whole front could be ripped open for the second time in a month. Could see Svatove and Kreminna under attack quite quickly.
Just a reminder that there is no direct Western involvement in the war to this point, and if there were, there would probably be no functioning Russian army left.
Everything Putin is doing is making a crushing defeat more and more likely. If he were insane enough to go "even slightly" nuclear, then the West and quite probably China -note the heavy silence in Beijing- would take the place apart.
This. 100x this.
Putin is talking big bollx purely for domestic reasons, particularly attempting to placate the even-more-loony-than-him ultra-nazi nationalists.
China is gonna go ape if he breaks the nuke taboo because Taiwan will engineer a nuke protection at double quick speed. The genie will be out of the bottle.
Hopefully he is just trying to shore things up at home. Even his position really is getting weaker than even the annexations could be part of it, since it would be an attempt to lock in his 'gains' in the event he were ever replaced, by making 'abandoning' those areas harder.
I'm not of an optimistic bent, and a mad dog is most dangerous of course, but hopefully steady Ukrainian progress will continue to occur, and tighten the noose on him. If the 2014 gains are ever threatened he surely would have to know he is in trouble.
A government boasting of spending 6.5% of GDP on energy subsidies. That's insane.
Wasn't there a study a while back showing the UK as the most vulnerable big nation in Europe, due to our energy mix, shoddy insulation and stingy welfare?
Still it's not very Conservative or Thatcherite to brag about spending borrowed money, rather than focusing on outcomes.
A government boasting of spending 6.5% of GDP on energy subsidies. That's insane.
This is evidence of how they haven't even worked out what their objective is, beyond solving the immediate problem of 'energy bills' and suggesting that they are 'doing something to return the country to growth'. If their overall goal was reducing consumption, they could have achieved a lot more with far less subsidy - I would guess that is what other European countries will be doing.
does that mean if russia is continuing the war they are attacking nato then...thats ww3
I think the intention is that Ukraine will have the same sort of protection that Sweden and Finland currently do. As an applicant there will be a series of multilateral security agreements.
So if occupied Ukraine is "Russia", unoccupied Ukraine is de facto NATO or as near as dammit.
Apparently there are going to be some big announcements this evening.
If the UK is providing security guarantees to Ukraine, while it's at war, I'd expect an address to the nation from Truss this evening.
An interesting moment. To what extent would voters compartmentalise their contempt for Truss over the budget from their instinctive support for Ukraine?
instinctive support for Ukraine is not the same as risking death and bombs raining on the UK for it
Yes. Which is why a message from the country's leadership is important at a time like this. Will the public give Truss a fair hearing on a different topic, or will they recoil?
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
No need to add to *the fear*. That's definitely spring. May Day parade somewhere?
Yes thats certainly not clandestine movement of ordnance into position for nefarious attack. It is very 'parade'
Tho of course Putin might do it like this deliberately, in a flamboyant paradey way, to freak us out
Nonetheless I reckon the vid is bogus. The trees are coming into leaf, like something almost being said. It's April or May, not Sept
Youll know if Russia is moving ordnance into nuclear exchange formation, we will be vastly increasing air patrols, there will be constant TV chatter etc.
A thought occurred to me just now. At some point the UKG - if we have one - will have to step up civil defence preparations, just in case
When was the last time we had a Duck and Cover advert on telly? Ages ago. So no one knows what to do, no one understand how useful it is to hide with a torch under the kitchen table if a 19 megaton ICBM slams into next door's garage
Seriously. The government will need to explain sirens and all that stuff, if this situation persists. That'll be a fun moment
There are no air raid sirens any more. The 4 minute warning no longer exists. They might reinstate '3 bangs' fallout warnings
If things do progress towards DEFCON 1 it’s a shame the late Queen won’t be there to speak to the nation.
Nor will Bozza Bear calm the nation any more. Whitty already looks like he has stared into an open nuclear reactor for hours unprotected so he might have to be the voice and face of armageddon
The BBC already have a "Strictly Come Dancing - Armageddon Special" lined-up for the emergency broadcast. With a countdown presented by Bruno Tonioli.
A government boasting of spending 6.5% of GDP on energy subsidies. That's insane.
Wasn't there a study a while back showing the UK as the most vulnerable big nation in Europe, due to our energy mix, shoddy insulation and stingy welfare?
Still it's not very Conservative or Thatcherite to brag about spending borrowed money, rather than focusing on outcomes.
Precisely. France has high nuclear baseload so would 'need' less support, but that's a good thing for France, not a bad thing for them.
The idea that spending is good in its own sake, rather than for what it gives, is awful. Its Brownian tractor stats, and no Tory should be doing that.
"Arm founder says the UK has no chance of tech sovereignty. Government fritters away homegrown technologies and has no strategy to lessen reliance on other countries"
Back in February at the start of the war I ran a location assessment to work out where to go in the event nuclear war looked likely, and what the trigger would be.
For the trigger, unless your job and family situation allows, it’s not feasible to go very early and sit it out in a far flung location. We need to late enough that we’re not blowing our children’s schooling or my job.
But leave it too late and you’re in the rush with millions of others and might struggle to make it out. Our current trigger is detonation of a tactical nuke by Putin.
Location wise I followed the scorecard approach I take at work when I’m advising multinationals on where to put a new operation. Variables were speed and cost to get there and back, Covid and visa entry requirements, number of flights per week, agricultural self sufficiency, cost and standard of living, distance from blast and fallout, and avoiding flight paths over potential targets.
Narrowed it down to Morocco or Ireland. Asia involved flying over CIS and E Europe and was too restrictive on entry requirements. S America also too difficult with visas and Covid rules for a quick getaway, and expensive to get to and back.
Morocco was first choice. I think on balance it still is, but Ireland still in the running.
In the event that nuclear war looks likely, I will make a headlong rush for the drinks cabinet.
There will, after all, be no need to worry about trifling things like livers and hangovers in the future.
If LA turned into an apocalyptic wasteland, how would you tell?
Because you look out the window and there is a man head to toe in leather with a bad mullet and it isn’t Leon, it’s Snake Plisken.
"Arm founder says the UK has no chance of tech sovereignty. Government fritters away homegrown technologies and has no strategy to lessen reliance on other countries"
Who is the unity candidate for Tory party MPs realising that they face certain disaster at the polls unless Truss is replaced. They would have a year to 18 months to turn things around. Cometh the hour....
Probably Tugendhat, no known enemies
Tugendhat has one month's experience in government. It would be crazy to make him leader. The only 'safe pair of hands' options would be May or possibly Hunt.
He's about the only proper unity candidate though. Hunt is just too far from the Spartans etc to hold it together i think, hes yesterdays man May is possible, yes, but would be 'take us gently into the twilight' leader for the Tories
That's the point though. Going gently into the twilight with some of the nicer bits of jewellery still intact might be about the best the blue team can aspire to now.
I wonder if you offered them 210 seats at a GE if they'd 'bank' right now?
I doubt that they would; you can only be a politician if you are a gambler with a big optimism bias.
But they probably should. For 240, they ought to bite your arm off.
Feels like a bit of a slam on Iceland to be honest.
The BBC World Service has been both a boon to the world and an astonishingly successful arm of British foreign policy and soft power. Cutting it is the latest evidence that "Global Britain" is a sham: Britain is well on its way to becoming Iceland with trees.
Sadly I can’t speak Russian. What’s that they’re singing? Is it “Whistle a Happy Tune” from the King and I?
Look at the streets around them in the long shots. It's a couple of pens for a few thousand people bussed in for the regime. This in a city of 12m people.
The BBC certainly showed clips and it is obviously a much smaller crowd then Russian propaganda would have you believe
Perhaps Mad Vlad's good buddy the Sage > Security Risk of Mar-a-Lardo can lend him a hand, via 45's own proven "fuzzy math" re: crowd "estimates"?
The irony is that, if the USA was at present *enjoying* President Trump's 2nd term, we'd probably be at less risk of going to all out war and global death. Coz Trump would have said Sure, have Ukraine, & Putin would have taken half of Ukraine, end of story
You're probably right: the US would have done f*ck all, the Germans would have done practically nothing, and we probably wouldn't have been able to do enough.
That said... it is worth remembering that the Ukrainians stopped the initial advance before much (if any) aid arrived.
If Putin had taken half of Ukr without a word then he would be marching into the Baltics by now.
Not that Trump would care.
I am surprise that Putin isn't trying to just freeze the Ukr war as much as possible and then just sit and wait for Trump to return in Jan 25.
Perhaps he doesn't have the time as an old man in a hurry.
You need to ask yourself - why didn't he do this whilst the 'window of opportunity' with Trump existed pre 2020? The 2014 annexations were done under Obama, without many difficulties.
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
No need to add to *the fear*. That's definitely spring. May Day parade somewhere?
Yes thats certainly not clandestine movement of ordnance into position for nefarious attack. It is very 'parade'
Tho of course Putin might do it like this deliberately, in a flamboyant paradey way, to freak us out
Nonetheless I reckon the vid is bogus. The trees are coming into leaf, like something almost being said. It's April or May, not Sept
Thank you for giving me a chuckle at the thought of a “flamboyant paradey” way of introducing the WMD. I had visions of drag queens and bodybuilders, and a man twirling a stick in a coat and tails out front.
Sadly I can’t speak Russian. What’s that they’re singing? Is it “Whistle a Happy Tune” from the King and I?
Look at the streets around them in the long shots. It's a couple of pens for a few thousand people bussed in for the regime. This in a city of 12m people.
The BBC certainly showed clips and it is obviously a much smaller crowd then Russian propaganda would have you believe
Perhaps Mad Vlad's good buddy the Sage > Security Risk of Mar-a-Lardo can lend him a hand, via 45's own proven "fuzzy math" re: crowd "estimates"?
The irony is that, if the USA was at present *enjoying* President Trump's 2nd term, we'd probably be at less risk of going to all out war and global death. Coz Trump would have said Sure, have Ukraine, & Putin would have taken half of Ukraine, end of story
You're probably right: the US would have done f*ck all, the Germans would have done practically nothing, and we probably wouldn't have been able to do enough.
That said... it is worth remembering that the Ukrainians stopped the initial advance before much (if any) aid arrived.
If Putin had taken half of Ukr without a word then he would be marching into the Baltics by now.
Not that Trump would care.
I am surprise that Putin isn't trying to just freeze the Ukr war as much as possible and then just sit and wait for Trump to return in Jan 25.
Perhaps he doesn't have the time as an old man in a hurry.
You need to ask yourself - why didn't he do this whilst the 'window of opportunity' with Trump existed pre 2020? The 2014 annexations were done under Obama, without many difficulties.
Without many difficulties? The result of the 2014 annexation was the massive overhaul of the Ukrainian military by the UK and the US. The very thing that has screwed Putin and left him clinging to office.
Back in February at the start of the war I ran a location assessment to work out where to go in the event nuclear war looked likely, and what the trigger would be.
For the trigger, unless your job and family situation allows, it’s not feasible to go very early and sit it out in a far flung location. We need to late enough that we’re not blowing our children’s schooling or my job.
But leave it too late and you’re in the rush with millions of others and might struggle to make it out. Our current trigger is detonation of a tactical nuke by Putin.
Location wise I followed the scorecard approach I take at work when I’m advising multinationals on where to put a new operation. Variables were speed and cost to get there and back, Covid and visa entry requirements, number of flights per week, agricultural self sufficiency, cost and standard of living, distance from blast and fallout, and avoiding flight paths over potential targets.
Narrowed it down to Morocco or Ireland. Asia involved flying over CIS and E Europe and was too restrictive on entry requirements. S America also too difficult with visas and Covid rules for a quick getaway, and expensive to get to and back.
Morocco was first choice. I think on balance it still is, but Ireland still in the running.
In the event that nuclear war looks likely, I will make a headlong rush for the drinks cabinet.
There will, after all, be no need to worry about trifling things like livers and hangovers in the future.
If LA turned into an apocalyptic wasteland, how would you tell?
Who is the unity candidate for Tory party MPs realising that they face certain disaster at the polls unless Truss is replaced. They would have a year to 18 months to turn things around. Cometh the hour....
Probably Tugendhat, no known enemies
Tugendhat has one month's experience in government. It would be crazy to make him leader. The only 'safe pair of hands' options would be May or possibly Hunt.
He's about the only proper unity candidate though. Hunt is just too far from the Spartans etc to hold it together i think, hes yesterdays man May is possible, yes, but would be 'take us gently into the twilight' leader for the Tories
That's the point though. Going gently into the twilight with some of the nicer bits of jewellery still intact might be about the best the blue team can aspire to now.
I wonder if you offered them 210 seats at a GE if they'd 'bank' right now?
They should, but I doubt they would.
As a former betting man, I can't believe the odds on a Labour Overall Majority. There seems to be built in some sort of assumption that the Tories will sort themselves out before the GE. I'd like to believe it, but I just don't see a route out for them from here.
All roads lead to annihilation, although the better ones leave open the possibility of regeneration. The rest are simply terminal.
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
No need to add to *the fear*. That's definitely spring. May Day parade somewhere?
Yes thats certainly not clandestine movement of ordnance into position for nefarious attack. It is very 'parade'
Tho of course Putin might do it like this deliberately, in a flamboyant paradey way, to freak us out
Nonetheless I reckon the vid is bogus. The trees are coming into leaf, like something almost being said. It's April or May, not Sept
Youll know if Russia is moving ordnance into nuclear exchange formation, we will be vastly increasing air patrols, there will be constant TV chatter etc.
A thought occurred to me just now. At some point the UKG - if we have one - will have to step up civil defence preparations, just in case
When was the last time we had a Duck and Cover advert on telly? Ages ago. So no one knows what to do, no one understands how useful it is to hide with a torch under the kitchen table if a 19 megaton ICBM slams into next door's garage
Seriously. The government will need to explain sirens and all that stuff, if this situation persists. That'll be a fun moment
Breaking911 @Breaking911 · 2m BIDEN TO PUTIN: "America is fully prepared with our NATO allies to defend every single inch of NATO territory, every single inch. Mr. Putin, don't misunderstand what I'm saying. Every inch."
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
No need to add to *the fear*. That's definitely spring. May Day parade somewhere?
Yes thats certainly not clandestine movement of ordnance into position for nefarious attack. It is very 'parade'
Tho of course Putin might do it like this deliberately, in a flamboyant paradey way, to freak us out
Nonetheless I reckon the vid is bogus. The trees are coming into leaf, like something almost being said. It's April or May, not Sept
Youll know if Russia is moving ordnance into nuclear exchange formation, we will be vastly increasing air patrols, there will be constant TV chatter etc.
A thought occurred to me just now. At some point the UKG - if we have one - will have to step up civil defence preparations, just in case
When was the last time we had a Duck and Cover advert on telly? Ages ago. So no one knows what to do, no one understand how useful it is to hide with a torch under the kitchen table if a 19 megaton ICBM slams into next door's garage
Seriously. The government will need to explain sirens and all that stuff, if this situation persists. That'll be a fun moment
There are no air raid sirens any more. The 4 minute warning no longer exists. They might reinstate '3 bangs' fallout warnings
If things do progress towards DEFCON 1 it’s a shame the late Queen won’t be there to speak to the nation.
Nor will Bozza Bear calm the nation any more. Whitty already looks like he has stared into an open nuclear reactor for hours unprotected so he might have to be the voice and face of armageddon
The BBC already have a "Strictly Come Dancing - Armageddon Special" lined-up for the emergency broadcast. With a countdown presented by Bruno Tonioli.
Vaporisation would be a relief.
Could be worse. They might show 'Threads' again.
Though it seems more likely the runway at Finningley will be rendered inop by Peel Holdings, not a nuclear strike.
"Arm founder says the UK has no chance of tech sovereignty. Government fritters away homegrown technologies and has no strategy to lessen reliance on other countries"
In which Frankie Boyle demonstrates that he still doesn't understand deterrence
"Amazing that no matter how bad things get, scrapping Trident is just never mentioned. A non issue across the political spectrum. The genius of placing it in Scotland, whose Unpeople may sadly have to be consumed by incendiary light, while more important matters are debated"
Do you feel safer from homeland attack here than you would in Spain?
Yes. Also safer than Germany, Holland, Poland, Baltics, etc
eg There is a chance Putin will drop one strategic warhead to show he REALLY means it (I've seen this discussed by experts). Probably on a major western European nation
Britain and France would be tempting targets, because they are rich, high profile and hostile to Russia, but they both have nukes. They will probably retaliate and smoke Moscow and St Petersburg and a few other cities. Catastrophe for Putin
So Putin would choose somewhere else. So deterrence works
We know this because Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Ukraine had nukes. No one has tried to destroy Israel - because Israel has nukes. Ditto North Korea. And so on
Nukes work. They deter. What fool would now unilaterally get rid of Trident, after all that we have seen?
Logic fail because it implies all countries having WMDs makes for a safer world.
But you do have a point. Tricky issue. No easy answers.
I'd ditch trident. It fails the cost benefit test for me.
A government boasting of spending 6.5% of GDP on energy subsidies. That's insane.
That means not very much . Surely it depends on how high energy costs are in those countries as to how much you’d need to spend in terms of GDP.
It means our government is boasting how much money it is wasting paying fuel bills of those who could afford it at the same time as they are cutting taxes and threatening a brutal spending round where benefits may not be protected from inflation.
So it is more important that the average Guardian reader gets £400 plus a cap than some poor bugger who can’t feed their kids gets to maintain their tragic standard of living.
Who is the unity candidate for Tory party MPs realising that they face certain disaster at the polls unless Truss is replaced. They would have a year to 18 months to turn things around. Cometh the hour....
Probably Tugendhat, no known enemies
Tugendhat has one month's experience in government. It would be crazy to make him leader. The only 'safe pair of hands' options would be May or possibly Hunt.
He's about the only proper unity candidate though. Hunt is just too far from the Spartans etc to hold it together i think, hes yesterdays man May is possible, yes, but would be 'take us gently into the twilight' leader for the Tories
I reckon Wallace would do it if it came to it. But not without Sunak as Chancellor.
Back in February at the start of the war I ran a location assessment to work out where to go in the event nuclear war looked likely, and what the trigger would be.
For the trigger, unless your job and family situation allows, it’s not feasible to go very early and sit it out in a far flung location. We need to late enough that we’re not blowing our children’s schooling or my job.
But leave it too late and you’re in the rush with millions of others and might struggle to make it out. Our current trigger is detonation of a tactical nuke by Putin.
Location wise I followed the scorecard approach I take at work when I’m advising multinationals on where to put a new operation. Variables were speed and cost to get there and back, Covid and visa entry requirements, number of flights per week, agricultural self sufficiency, cost and standard of living, distance from blast and fallout, and avoiding flight paths over potential targets.
Narrowed it down to Morocco or Ireland. Asia involved flying over CIS and E Europe and was too restrictive on entry requirements. S America also too difficult with visas and Covid rules for a quick getaway, and expensive to get to and back.
Morocco was first choice. I think on balance it still is, but Ireland still in the running.
In the event that nuclear war looks likely, I will make a headlong rush for the drinks cabinet.
There will, after all, be no need to worry about trifling things like livers and hangovers in the future.
I’ve got an unopened bottle of very good Glen Garioch I was keeping for Scottish Independence day. I think I could probably drink it in 4 minutes if I had to.
A government boasting of spending 6.5% of GDP on energy subsidies. That's insane.
That means not very much . Surely it depends on how high energy costs are in those countries as to how much you’d need to spend in terms of GDP.
It means our government is boasting how much money it is wasting paying fuel bills of those who could afford it at the same time as they are cutting taxes and threatening a brutal spending round where benefits may not be protected from inflation.
So it is more important that the average Guardian reader gets £400 plus a cap than some poor bugger who can’t feed their kids gets to maintain their tragic standard of living.
In which Frankie Boyle demonstrates that he still doesn't understand deterrence
"Amazing that no matter how bad things get, scrapping Trident is just never mentioned. A non issue across the political spectrum. The genius of placing it in Scotland, whose Unpeople may sadly have to be consumed by incendiary light, while more important matters are debated"
Do you feel safer from homeland attack here than you would in Spain?
Yes. Also safer than Germany, Holland, Poland, Baltics, etc
eg There is a chance Putin will drop one strategic warhead to show he REALLY means it (I've seen this discussed by experts). Probably on a major western European nation
Britain and France would be tempting targets, because they are rich, high profile and hostile to Russia, but they both have nukes. They will probably retaliate and smoke Moscow and St Petersburg and a few other cities. Catastrophe for Putin
So Putin would choose somewhere else. So deterrence works
We know this because Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Ukraine had nukes. No one has tried to destroy Israel - because Israel has nukes. Ditto North Korea. And so on
Nukes work. They deter. What fool would now unilaterally get rid of Trident, after all that we have seen?
Logic fail because it implies all countries having WMDs makes for a safer world.
But you do have a point. Tricky issue. No easy answers.
I'd ditch trident. It fails the cost benefit test for me.
idiot
Come back to me when you grow a brain.
£6 billion per year : 70 million people x sum(QALY) x some tiny probability
Trident is almost certainly worth it. We locked the whole country down to save a few 100,000.
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
No need to add to *the fear*. That's definitely spring. May Day parade somewhere?
Yes thats certainly not clandestine movement of ordnance into position for nefarious attack. It is very 'parade'
Tho of course Putin might do it like this deliberately, in a flamboyant paradey way, to freak us out
Nonetheless I reckon the vid is bogus. The trees are coming into leaf, like something almost being said. It's April or May, not Sept
Youll know if Russia is moving ordnance into nuclear exchange formation, we will be vastly increasing air patrols, there will be constant TV chatter etc.
A thought occurred to me just now. At some point the UKG - if we have one - will have to step up civil defence preparations, just in case
When was the last time we had a Duck and Cover advert on telly? Ages ago. So no one knows what to do, no one understand how useful it is to hide with a torch under the kitchen table if a 19 megaton ICBM slams into next door's garage
Seriously. The government will need to explain sirens and all that stuff, if this situation persists. That'll be a fun moment
There are no air raid sirens any more. The 4 minute warning no longer exists. They might reinstate '3 bangs' fallout warnings
If things do progress towards DEFCON 1 it’s a shame the late Queen won’t be there to speak to the nation.
Nor will Bozza Bear calm the nation any more. Whitty already looks like he has stared into an open nuclear reactor for hours unprotected so he might have to be the voice and face of armageddon
The BBC already have a "Strictly Come Dancing - Armageddon Special" lined-up for the emergency broadcast. With a countdown presented by Bruno Tonioli.
Vaporisation would be a relief.
Could be worse. They might show 'Threads' again.
Though it seems more likely the runway at Finningley will be rendered inop by Peel Holdings, not a nuclear strike.
My God, "Threads". Lost count of the nightmares that ray of TV sunshine gave me.
Although an updated version would be a good thing. From personal experience explaining to someone under the age of 35 what a nuclear weapon actually is and does is met with absolute incredulity. Seriously, for those brought up in the Cold War, the sheer ignorance of later generations is astounding - but probably not their fault.
Putin is not going to nuke the West because MAD, silly.
But the New Yorker article upthread is essential reading because it provides a framework for thinking through what his - and the West’s options are.
I believe he is playing for time - mobilisation may save him yet - with one finger on the trigger of something non-nuclear - some chemical weapon, say, to be used on Ukrainian forces in the Donbas, or the Ukrainian population Kiev, or Kherson.
Thereby he hopes that the West will back down and concede (de facto) his annexations, which he can sell as a win.
The West on the other hand must be aiming to deter that - by promising suitable retribution, as we have done - and continuing efforts to support Ukrainian advances.
But I can’t see Putin backing down, as it invites his own destruction. For the West, it seems like the most optimistic case is now Putin’s ouster, occasioned either by heavy losses in Ukraine and/or civil discontent, and Russian withdrawal.
I’d put the chances of chemical escalation at 20%, nuclear escalation (within Ukraine) at 5%, and all-out nuclear apocalypse at less than 1%.
Separately, I’d suggest that the chances of a Korean style partition, heavily militarised on both sides, at 50%. Less likely (40%) is a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine to a greater or lesser degree, even less likely a comprehensive Russian defeat and occupation of Ukraine (10%).
I think it's worth remembering that Saddam survived for more than a decade as dictator in Iraq after comprehensively losing the First Gulf War and being ejected from Kuwait. The scenario where Russia is comprehensively defeated in Ukraine and yet Putin hangs on as Russian dictator, is considerably more likely than people suppose.
I am struggling to see how the conflict reaches a stalemate. If the West continues to provide Ukraine with ammunition and training then it is very hard to see how Russia can establish a defensive line that it can hold.
If the West ceases to provide Ukraine with supplies of ammunition (perhaps because the Trumpists take control of Congress) then Ukraine will face certain defeat once it has exhausted its ammunition.
I feel very optimistic about the future course of the war.
A government boasting of spending 6.5% of GDP on energy subsidies. That's insane.
That loses my respect. 😡👎
Yes, a really crap graphic.
Sadly we live in a world where people demand that a percentage of GDP is spent on aid, and a percentage of GDP is spent on the armed forces - all totally meaningless and could be (and have been) spent on iPads for all the members of the departments concerned. Viewed in that light, this is a predictable (if dreadful) boast.
“One thing is clear, the Bank of England intervention has been a bail-out of those who borrowed, unwisely. The costs will ultimately be borne by the population at large.
The Bank of England intervention is welcome but this is a problem deferred, not resolved.”
It calls this an "open-ended Cuban Missile Crisis" which is accurate and explains why this might be worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis. In 1962 Khrushchev backed down and it was all over in ten days. This could go on for months, even years, with the world one misstep away from disaster. Yuk
Who is the unity candidate for Tory party MPs realising that they face certain disaster at the polls unless Truss is replaced. They would have a year to 18 months to turn things around. Cometh the hour....
Probably Tugendhat, no known enemies
Tugendhat has one month's experience in government. It would be crazy to make him leader. The only 'safe pair of hands' options would be May or possibly Hunt.
He's about the only proper unity candidate though. Hunt is just too far from the Spartans etc to hold it together i think, hes yesterdays man May is possible, yes, but would be 'take us gently into the twilight' leader for the Tories
That's the point though. Going gently into the twilight with some of the nicer bits of jewellery still intact might be about the best the blue team can aspire to now.
I wonder if you offered them 210 seats at a GE if they'd 'bank' right now?
I doubt that they would; you can only be a politician if you are a gambler with a big optimism bias.
But they probably should. For 240, they ought to bite your arm off.
Too bloody true. Electoral Calculus is predicting 168 and the trend is strongly downward.
A government boasting of spending 6.5% of GDP on energy subsidies. That's insane.
Wasn't there a study a while back showing the UK as the most vulnerable big nation in Europe, due to our energy mix, shoddy insulation and stingy welfare?
Still it's not very Conservative or Thatcherite to brag about spending borrowed money, rather than focusing on outcomes.
Precisely. France has high nuclear baseload so would 'need' less support, but that's a good thing for France, not a bad thing for them.
The idea that spending is good in its own sake, rather than for what it gives, is awful. Its Brownian tractor stats, and no Tory should be doing that.
As an example of that, it’s slightly ironic that if we’d spent even half what we’re going to borrow this year on new nuclear power stations a decade back, we’d not need to burn any gas in power stations at all. And the annual interest bill would be very small fraction of what it is now.
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
How can you tell they are carrying nuclear weapons just by looking at them?
A combination of markings and heightened security?
American nukes were alway quite conspicuous, when they moved by road. The RAF used to do elaborate charades that it was just a tea van or something. Which fooled no one.
"A column of heavy #Russian equipment carrying nuclear warheads was spotted in #Rostov ,#Putin #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineWar #Ukraine️ #UkraineWillWin #SlavaUkrainii #SlavaUkraïni #StandWithUkraine #Russia #nuclearwar"
I may have to bring forward my Doomsday Finger Buffet
NB: I have no idea if that video is genuine. The trees look suspiciously springlike, not autumnal, tho the weather matches the forecast for today in Rostov: clear and 24C
No need to add to *the fear*. That's definitely spring. May Day parade somewhere?
Yes thats certainly not clandestine movement of ordnance into position for nefarious attack. It is very 'parade'
Tho of course Putin might do it like this deliberately, in a flamboyant paradey way, to freak us out
Nonetheless I reckon the vid is bogus. The trees are coming into leaf, like something almost being said. It's April or May, not Sept
Youll know if Russia is moving ordnance into nuclear exchange formation, we will be vastly increasing air patrols, there will be constant TV chatter etc.
A thought occurred to me just now. At some point the UKG - if we have one - will have to step up civil defence preparations, just in case
When was the last time we had a Duck and Cover advert on telly? Ages ago. So no one knows what to do, no one understand how useful it is to hide with a torch under the kitchen table if a 19 megaton ICBM slams into next door's garage
Seriously. The government will need to explain sirens and all that stuff, if this situation persists. That'll be a fun moment
There are no air raid sirens any more. The 4 minute warning no longer exists. They might reinstate '3 bangs' fallout warnings
If things do progress towards DEFCON 1 it’s a shame the late Queen won’t be there to speak to the nation.
Nor will Bozza Bear calm the nation any more. Whitty already looks like he has stared into an open nuclear reactor for hours unprotected so he might have to be the voice and face of armageddon
The BBC already have a "Strictly Come Dancing - Armageddon Special" lined-up for the emergency broadcast. With a countdown presented by Bruno Tonioli.
Vaporisation would be a relief.
Could be worse. They might show 'Threads' again.
Though it seems more likely the runway at Finningley will be rendered inop by Peel Holdings, not a nuclear strike.
My God, "Threads". Lost count of the nightmares that ray of TV sunshine gave me.
Although an updated version would be a good thing. From personal experience explaining to someone under the age of 35 what a nuclear weapon actually is and does is met with absolute incredulity. Seriously, for those brought up in the Cold War, the sheer ignorance of later generations is astounding - but probably not their fault.
I was a student in the cruise missles and SS-20 era. At least two of my fellow students were Greenham Common women. I remember going to Wales with a group for a residential weekend at the Centre for Alternative Technology in Machynlleth and congratulating the lecturer on visualising a future world that would be safe from the Bomb because there was nothing worth nuking. For some reason this entirely serious comment did not go down at all well with anybody there, lecturer or group. It was quite a relief to escape from the urine-watered salads and head off up Cadair Idris.
Truss is not going to get her whole package through parliament.
This includes the “let ‘em rip” enterprise zones also known as Tory MP suicide zones.
She has until May next year to sort herself out, which will involve the mother of all U-Turns, sacking Kwarteng etc. There’s no sign of that.
I think she’ll go at that point.
Yes she will. She's not going to u-turn, she's not going to sack Kwarteng (because she can't, realistically), and she's not going to go before the election.
A government boasting of spending 6.5% of GDP on energy subsidies. That's insane.
That means not very much . Surely it depends on how high energy costs are in those countries as to how much you’d need to spend in terms of GDP.
It means our government is boasting how much money it is wasting paying fuel bills of those who could afford it at the same time as they are cutting taxes and threatening a brutal spending round where benefits may not be protected from inflation.
So it is more important that the average Guardian reader gets £400 plus a cap than some poor bugger who can’t feed their kids gets to maintain their tragic standard of living.
Which is a f****** disgrace.
Sickening.
I suppose it is just politics. But hopefully this type of farce should dispel any illusions anyone may have that this government are capable of "taking the hard decisions" necessary to "return the country to growth".
Who is the unity candidate for Tory party MPs realising that they face certain disaster at the polls unless Truss is replaced. They would have a year to 18 months to turn things around. Cometh the hour....
Probably Tugendhat, no known enemies
Tugendhat has one month's experience in government. It would be crazy to make him leader. The only 'safe pair of hands' options would be May or possibly Hunt.
He's about the only proper unity candidate though. Hunt is just too far from the Spartans etc to hold it together i think, hes yesterdays man May is possible, yes, but would be 'take us gently into the twilight' leader for the Tories
I reckon Wallace would do it if it came to it. But not without Sunak as Chancellor.
Comments
If not Wallace if he will serve
Just a reminder that there is no direct Western involvement in the war to this point, and if there were, there would probably be no functioning Russian army left.
Everything Putin is doing is making a crushing defeat more and more likely. If he were insane enough to go "even slightly" nuclear, then the West and quite probably China -note the heavy silence in Beijing- would take the place apart.
There will, after all, be no need to worry about trifling things like livers and hangovers in the future.
Same as the people who work for and support him.
Hunt is just too far from the Spartans etc to hold it together i think, hes yesterdays man
May is possible, yes, but would be 'take us gently into the twilight' leader for the Tories
When was the last time we had a Duck and Cover advert on telly? Ages ago. So no one knows what to do, no one understands how useful it is to hide with a torch under the kitchen table if a 19 megaton ICBM slams into next door's garage
Seriously. The government will need to explain sirens and all that stuff, if this situation persists. That'll be a fun moment
— Biden sends message to Putin following nuclear threats and annexation of Ukrainian land before announcing new sanctions
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1575912394936795163
They might reinstate '3 bangs' fallout warnings
A government boasting of spending 6.5% of GDP on energy subsidies. That's insane.
The ones you want to look out for are the Iskanders. They're the ones with modest ranged nuclear missiles, but the difficulty there is that they're used with non-nuclear warheads too, so pretty difficult to tell whether you're seeinga nuke being moved into range to fire.
Breaking911
@Breaking911
·
2m
BIDEN TO PUTIN: "America is fully prepared with our NATO allies to defend every single inch of NATO territory, every single inch. Mr. Putin, don't misunderstand what I'm saying. Every inch."
https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1575921900982718465?s=20&t=3c7bpfc_6GwUvIpPBYw8ww
Fine words, but God he is doddery. Not ideal
Putin is talking big bollx purely for domestic reasons, particularly attempting to placate the even-more-loony-than-him ultra-nazi nationalists.
China is gonna go ape if he breaks the nuke taboo because Taiwan will engineer a nuke protection at double quick speed. The genie will be out of the bottle.
That said... it is worth remembering that the Ukrainians stopped the initial advance before much (if any) aid arrived.
Going gently into the twilight with some of the nicer bits of jewellery still intact might be about the best the blue team can aspire to now.
Coming online just in time (unless Putin knocks out telecoms)
Who Do Polling.
This year's profit, that's all that matters.
Not that Trump would care.
I am surprise that Putin isn't trying to just freeze the Ukr war as much as possible and then just sit and wait for Trump to return in Jan 25.
Perhaps he doesn't have the time as an old man in a hurry.
I'll support what I support, and oppose what I oppose. A party name being on a policy neither makes it better nor worse.
Try that sometime. Its liberating.
"Polish officials said on Friday they had distributed anti-radiation tablets to fire departments nationwide in case of exposure triggered by the war in neighbouring Ukraine, while denying there was cause for alarm."
Officials said it was a routine initiative “in case of a potential radiation threat, which… at the moment does not exist.”"
https://insiderpaper.com/poland-preps-anti-radiation-tablets-over-nuclear-threat/
They are getting us ready, while trying not to scare us. Tricky
Especially from a Government that claims to be prepared to be unpopular.
But the New Yorker article upthread is essential reading because it provides a framework for thinking through what his - and the West’s options are.
I believe he is playing for time - mobilisation may save him yet - with one finger on the trigger of something non-nuclear - some chemical weapon, say, to be used on Ukrainian forces in the Donbas, or the Ukrainian population Kiev, or Kherson.
Thereby he hopes that the West will back down and concede (de facto) his annexations, which he can sell as a win.
The West on the other hand must be aiming to deter that - by promising suitable retribution, as we have done - and continuing efforts to support Ukrainian advances.
But I can’t see Putin backing down, as it invites his own destruction. For the West, it seems like the most optimistic case is now Putin’s ouster, occasioned either by heavy losses in Ukraine and/or civil discontent, and Russian withdrawal.
I’d put the chances of chemical escalation at 20%, nuclear escalation (within Ukraine) at 5%, and all-out nuclear apocalypse at less than 1%.
Separately, I’d suggest that the chances of a Korean style partition, heavily militarised on both sides, at 50%. Less likely (40%) is a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine to a greater or lesser degree, even less likely a comprehensive Russian defeat and occupation of Ukraine (10%).
I suspect it’s not more perilous than Cuba - for a relatively short period of time that was maybe 50/50. And the logic of deterrence and communication of intentions hadn’t fully been thought through at that time.
Though Putin is probably less rational than Krushchev.
I'm not of an optimistic bent, and a mad dog is most dangerous of course, but hopefully steady Ukrainian progress will continue to occur, and tighten the noose on him. If the 2014 gains are ever threatened he surely would have to know he is in trouble.
Still it's not very Conservative or Thatcherite to brag about spending borrowed money, rather than focusing on outcomes.
The verdict was Mene mene tekel parsin
Vaporisation would be a relief.
The idea that spending is good in its own sake, rather than for what it gives, is awful. Its Brownian tractor stats, and no Tory should be doing that.
We’ve bored on about this for years, but it’s largely true.
But they probably should. For 240, they ought to bite your arm off.
The BBC World Service has been both a boon to the world and an astonishingly successful arm of British foreign policy and soft power. Cutting it is the latest evidence that "Global Britain" is a sham: Britain is well on its way to becoming Iceland with trees.
https://twitter.com/dgardner/status/1575883043533119490?cxt=HHwWhIDTlevR1N4rAAAA
The 2014 annexations were done under Obama, without many difficulties.
Prophetic observation by Gertrude Stein.
As a former betting man, I can't believe the odds on a Labour Overall Majority. There seems to be built in some sort of assumption that the Tories will sort themselves out before the GE. I'd like to believe it, but I just don't see a route out for them from here.
All roads lead to annihilation, although the better ones leave open the possibility of regeneration. The rest are simply terminal.
Though it seems more likely the runway at Finningley will be rendered inop by Peel Holdings, not a nuclear strike.
So it is more important that the average Guardian reader gets £400 plus a cap than some poor bugger who can’t feed their kids gets to maintain their tragic standard of living.
Which is a f****** disgrace.
Sickening.
But not without Sunak as Chancellor.
But the logic applies, all the same.
Trident is almost certainly worth it. We locked the whole country down to save a few 100,000.
This includes the “let ‘em rip” enterprise zones also known as Tory MP suicide zones.
She has until May next year to sort herself out, which will involve the mother of all U-Turns, sacking Kwarteng etc. There’s no sign of that.
I think she’ll go at that point.
Although an updated version would be a good thing. From personal experience explaining to someone under the age of 35 what a nuclear weapon actually is and does is met with absolute incredulity. Seriously, for those brought up in the Cold War, the sheer ignorance of later generations is astounding - but probably not their fault.
I am struggling to see how the conflict reaches a stalemate. If the West continues to provide Ukraine with ammunition and training then it is very hard to see how Russia can establish a defensive line that it can hold.
If the West ceases to provide Ukraine with supplies of ammunition (perhaps because the Trumpists take control of Congress) then Ukraine will face certain defeat once it has exhausted its ammunition.
I feel very optimistic about the future course of the war.
Sadly we live in a world where people demand that a percentage of GDP is spent on aid, and a percentage of GDP is spent on the armed forces - all totally meaningless and could be (and have been) spent on iPads for all the members of the departments concerned. Viewed in that light, this is a predictable (if dreadful) boast.
“One thing is clear, the Bank of England intervention has been a bail-out of those who borrowed, unwisely. The costs will ultimately be borne by the population at large.
The Bank of England intervention is welcome but this is a problem deferred, not resolved.”
As I suspected at the time. This is outrageous.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putin-roulette-sacrificing-supporters-race-against-defeat?utm_campaign=tw_daily_soc&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_posts
It calls this an "open-ended Cuban Missile Crisis" which is accurate and explains why this might be worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis. In 1962 Khrushchev backed down and it was all over in ten days. This could go on for months, even years, with the world one misstep away from disaster. Yuk
And the annual interest bill would be very small fraction of what it is now.
American nukes were alway quite conspicuous, when they moved by road. The RAF used to do elaborate charades that it was just a tea van or something. Which fooled no one.
So a rather apt metaphor
I'd pound the streets for that.