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A damning attack on Truss from ConservativeHome – politicalbetting.com

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  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081

    No, I think she’s so deluded she thinks she will win.

    Hate to see how they react when the growth they are convinced is coming doesn’t appear.

    Every meeting with Liz Truss


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Your nom de plume (if you excuse the pun), is clearly quite appropriate. Not in terms just of your obvious puffed out chest of self-importance, but also the miniscule size of your brain. Most MPs of all parties go into politics for positive reasons. While there are a number of dullards and charlatans in the Tory Party there are an equal number in the other parties too. Slandering them all because you are so partisan to be unable to see the good in someone of a differing political viewpoint just demonstrates your immaturity and general stupidity.
    Er, it's not as if many MPs from other parties will be worrying? So 'Tory' is quite appropriate.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,505

    It's a song called "We need a victory", with the famous first line "Birds don't sing here", written for Bulat Okudzhava some time around 1970.

    Here it is, sung by the gorgeous Keti Topuria, a Georgian lass whose group A-Studio made it big in Kazakhstan.

    The lyrics in English:

    No birds sing here,
    No trees grow;
    Only we, shoulder to shoulder,
    Grow into the earth.

    The planet burns and turns
    Above our Motherland there’s smoke.
    And we need a victory.
    One for us all - we don't care about the cost.
    One for us all - we don't care about the cost.

    Deadly fire awaits us
    But it’s powerless.
    Cast doubt aside; off into the night is leaving
    Our 10th paratroop battalion,
    Our 10th paratroop battalion.

    Just as the fire dies down, another order sounds,
    The postman will go mad looking for us.

    A crimson rocket is flying,
    Machine-gun rounds pound
    And we need a victory.
    One for us all - we don't care about the cost.
    One for us all - we don't care about the cost.

    Deadly fire awaits us
    But it’s powerless.
    Cast doubt aside; off into the night is leaving
    Our 10th paratroop battalion,
    Our 10th paratroop battalion.

    From Kursk to Oryol the war has led us,
    To the enemy’s very gates: that, brother, is where we are.

    Some day we’ll remember this
    And we won’t believe it outselves.
    And now we need a victory.
    One for us all - we don't care about the cost.
    One for us all - we don't care about the cost.

    Deadly fire awaits us
    But it’s powerless.
    Cast doubt aside; off into the night is leaving
    Our 10th paratroop battalion,
    Our 10th paratroop battalion.
    Hello, Hello_clouds.

    Avoid the trolling bit and, Russian or not, you'll be fine here.

    What an, erm, charming little ditty.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    Labour had a reckoning with its extreme elements while not in power. The Conservatives have to face up to the same task, while in power. Not easy. But if they don't, they're screwed.
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1575889960087203840
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    "We're so crap we cannot adequately explain our policies to you; therefore you should totally trust that our policies are fantastic"
  • Liz Truss is a panto parody of Margaret Thatcher, similar to how Boris Johnson is a panto parody of Winston Churchill.

    Highly doubt that EITHER alleged role model would be flattered, let alone amused, by these "tribute" acts.
    My thoughts entirely. It is like watching someone doing a very badly executed version of "purple haze" by Jimmy Hendrix when they still haven't quite mastered the main riff to Smoke on the Water
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,743
    TimS said:

    Back in February at the start of the war I ran a location assessment to work out where to go in the event nuclear war looked likely, and what the trigger would be.

    For the trigger, unless your job and family situation allows, it’s not feasible to go very early and sit it out in a far flung location. We need to late enough that we’re not blowing our children’s schooling or my job.

    But leave it too late and you’re in the rush with millions of others and might struggle to make it out. Our current trigger is detonation of a tactical nuke by Putin.

    Location wise I followed the scorecard approach I take at work when I’m advising multinationals on where to put a new operation. Variables were speed and cost to get there and back, Covid and visa entry requirements, number of flights per week, agricultural self sufficiency, cost and standard of living, distance from blast and fallout, and avoiding flight paths over potential targets.

    Narrowed it down to Morocco or Ireland. Asia involved flying over CIS and E Europe and was too restrictive on entry requirements. S America also too difficult with visas and Covid rules for a quick getaway, and expensive to get to and back.

    Morocco was first choice. I think on balance it still is, but Ireland still in the running.

    I think you're pissing into the radioactive wind.

    If I wanted to live in the remnants of our civilisation. I'd go and eat puffins on the Western Isles.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited September 2022
    Eabhal said:

    Hopefully get some proper polls around the SC decision.
    Fundamental methodological error: never measure at or around an “event”. Regular, say monthly, polls are your friend. Scotland used to have two (System Three and ? I forget the other, ICM? courtesy of G Herald and Scotsman) until the rise of the SNP. Odd coincidence that they disappeared about then 😉
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,911
    Just checked my DB pension scheme investments. The one that isn’t in the PPF.

    24% in LDI/cash !!!!

    Used to be 50% stocks, 25% in both bonds and gilts.
  • The BBC certainly showed clips and it is obviously a much smaller crowd then Russian propaganda would have you believe
    Perhaps Mad Vlad's good buddy the Sage > Security Risk of Mar-a-Lardo can lend him a hand, via 45's own proven "fuzzy math" re: crowd "estimates"?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    edited September 2022

    No, I think she’s so deluded she thinks she will win.

    Hate to see how they react when the growth they are convinced is coming doesn’t appear.
    Blame it on Remoaners, Putin, the EU, the media, lazy British workers, Gordon Brown, the Bank of England, the unions, the civil service, the weather, whatever...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,911
    TimS said:

    Back in February at the start of the war I ran a location assessment to work out where to go in the event nuclear war looked likely, and what the trigger would be.

    For the trigger, unless your job and family situation allows, it’s not feasible to go very early and sit it out in a far flung location. We need to late enough that we’re not blowing our children’s schooling or my job.

    But leave it too late and you’re in the rush with millions of others and might struggle to make it out. Our current trigger is detonation of a tactical nuke by Putin.

    Location wise I followed the scorecard approach I take at work when I’m advising multinationals on where to put a new operation. Variables were speed and cost to get there and back, Covid and visa entry requirements, number of flights per week, agricultural self sufficiency, cost and standard of living, distance from blast and fallout, and avoiding flight paths over potential targets.

    Narrowed it down to Morocco or Ireland. Asia involved flying over CIS and E Europe and was too restrictive on entry requirements. S America also too difficult with visas and Covid rules for a quick getaway, and expensive to get to and back.

    Morocco was first choice. I think on balance it still is, but Ireland still in the running.

    North Morocco will surely suffer from radiation and fall out, there's a lot of NATO stuff just across the Med. And Gibraltar is likely to be one of the first places to be vaped

    Ireland surely the same. One easterly wind (and they do happen) and they get the fall out from the UK, plus the Russians will be landing bombs all over the Irish Sea looking for UK subs and boats

    Southern Morocco maybe. Essaouira?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,292

    The BBC certainly showed clips and it is obviously a much smaller crowd then Russian propaganda would have you believe
    A Potemkin crowd for a Potemkin Hitler. The whole country is now more or less an empty theatre, and the hall of war criminals watching the farcial proceedings already knew that. In good Scots we´d call it a toom tabard on a shoogly peg.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    Business chiefs tell Liz Truss to act now to cut debt or risk 'credibility and stability'

    🔴 CBI criticised the Chancellor for announcing tax cuts without explaining how they would be paid for

    ✍️ @HugoGye and @janemerrick23 https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/cbi-business-chiefs-liz-truss-kwasi-kwarteng-debt-credibility-stability-1888013?ito=social_itw_theipaper&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1664551198

    The same CBI whose director general Tony Danker said in a Treasury press release after the mini-budget: "This is a turning point for our economy. Today is day one of a new UK growth approach."

    That CBI? https://twitter.com/theipaper/status/1575869500133629952
  • Carnyx said:

    Er, it's not as if many MPs from other parties will be worrying? So 'Tory' is quite appropriate.
    Not difficult concept for a man of your intellect to grasp @Carnyx ; I was referring to the other poster's somewhat juvenile insistence that MPs of a party that he does not support must be crooked and venal. I wouldn't even accuse SNP politicians of that. Well not ALL anyway.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,896
    edited September 2022
    Even if the mini-budget were a work of economic genius, the market doesn't agree. So the government has to change tack. As Keynes is famously attributed to have said, "the market can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent".

    There is an easy fix. The government should request 45 pence from every rich person. And bankers should be forced to wear caps at work.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,737
    edited September 2022
    kamski said:

    Surely Nato isn't going to give security guarantees to a country already at war with Russia
    Slight issues in this thread are:

    a) UK has not given security guarantees to Ukraine (unless something happened I do not know about).
    b) NATO does not accept countries with border conflicts.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    stjohn said:

    Even if the mini-budget were a work of economic genius, the market doesn't agree. So the government has to change tack. As Keynes is famously attributed to have said, "the market can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent".

    Truss doesn't agree with you.

    And she thinks she is right.

    She thinks she can remain irrational much longer than you and I can remain solvent...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    Scott_xP said:

    Business chiefs tell Liz Truss to act now to cut debt or risk 'credibility and stability'

    🔴 CBI criticised the Chancellor for announcing tax cuts without explaining how they would be paid for

    Not really sure how the Tories of all people forgot that bit.

    As stjohn says, even if it were a good idea, the market doesn't agree, and that's significant.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,453
    Leon said:

    North Morocco will surely suffer from radiation and fall out, there's a lot of NATO stuff just across the Med. And Gibraltar is likely to be one of the first places to be vaped

    Ireland surely the same. One easterly wind (and they do happen) and they get the fall out from the UK, plus the Russians will be landing bombs all over the Irish Sea looking for UK subs and boats

    Southern Morocco maybe. Essaouira?
    Casablanca southwards should be OK. Has the advantage of being cheap too.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    There we have it - the worst calendar month on record for the 10-year British government bond. 😔

    Yield up 1.29 percentage points at Friday's close. https://twitter.com/BruceReuters/status/1575882172963004416/photo/1
  • Scott_xP said:

    Business chiefs tell Liz Truss to act now to cut debt or risk 'credibility and stability'

    🔴 CBI criticised the Chancellor for announcing tax cuts without explaining how they would be paid for

    ✍️ @HugoGye and @janemerrick23 https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/cbi-business-chiefs-liz-truss-kwasi-kwarteng-debt-credibility-stability-1888013?ito=social_itw_theipaper&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1664551198

    The same CBI whose director general Tony Danker said in a Treasury press release after the mini-budget: "This is a turning point for our economy. Today is day one of a new UK growth approach."

    That CBI? https://twitter.com/theipaper/status/1575869500133629952

    Sea change. Or rather up-the-creek-without-a-paddle change.

    Similar (indeed nearly identical) to similar change by Trussed-Up PBers in past days.

    Gee, wonder why?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    Keir Starmer can lock the imploding Tories out for a decade – if he gets the message right | Jonathan Freedland https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/30/keir-starmer-tories-labour-crisis?CMP=twt_gu&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium#Echobox=1664557126
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Fundamental methodological error: never measure at or around an “event”. Regular, say monthly, polls are your friend. Scotland used to have two (System Three and ? I forget the other, ICM? courtesy of G Herald and Scotsman) until the rise of the SNP. Odd coincidence that they disappeared about then 😉
    2010-ish? Yes, that was about when the Scotsman and then GH stopped being decent middle of the road broadsheets anyway, which didn't help.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839

    I'm on a flight to Australia 10th October, if armageddon can wait till the 11th, that would be super.
    If it happens on the 9th, will you go Round the Bend?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,292
    MattW said:

    Slight issues in this thread are:

    a) UK has not given security guarantees to Ukraine (unless something happened I do not know about).
    b) NATO does not accept countries with border conflicts.
    In 1955 the Federal Republic of Germany joined NATO, even though more than a third of Germany remained under Soviet occupation. The UK has already given a security guarantee to Ukraine: the Budapest Memorandum.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    TimS said:

    Back in February at the start of the war I ran a location assessment to work out where to go in the event nuclear war looked likely, and what the trigger would be.

    For the trigger, unless your job and family situation allows, it’s not feasible to go very early and sit it out in a far flung location. We need to late enough that we’re not blowing our children’s schooling or my job.

    But leave it too late and you’re in the rush with millions of others and might struggle to make it out. Our current trigger is detonation of a tactical nuke by Putin.

    Location wise I followed the scorecard approach I take at work when I’m advising multinationals on where to put a new operation. Variables were speed and cost to get there and back, Covid and visa entry requirements, number of flights per week, agricultural self sufficiency, cost and standard of living, distance from blast and fallout, and avoiding flight paths over potential targets.

    Narrowed it down to Morocco or Ireland. Asia involved flying over CIS and E Europe and was too restrictive on entry requirements. S America also too difficult with visas and Covid rules for a quick getaway, and expensive to get to and back.

    Morocco was first choice. I think on balance it still is, but Ireland still in the running.

    I'd not survive long anyway, because... medical supplies.

    So, we'd sit here in rural Dorset and drink our best wine first, until fall-out, starvation, marauding refugees from the cities, or the end of said medical supplies finished us off.

    But cheer up - it's not going to happen. Putin's bluffing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432

    I think you're pissing into the radioactive wind.

    If I wanted to live in the remnants of our civilisation. I'd go and eat puffins on the Western Isles.
    The torrential rain will wash a lot of the radioactive fallout away. Good call.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    Scott_xP said:

    There we have it - the worst calendar month on record for the 10-year British government bond. 😔

    Yield up 1.29 percentage points at Friday's close. https://twitter.com/BruceReuters/status/1575882172963004416/photo/1

    The worst month on a Wedneday when the breeze was in the SE?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,911

    Perhaps Mad Vlad's good buddy the Sage > Security Risk of Mar-a-Lardo can lend him a hand, via 45's own proven "fuzzy math" re: crowd "estimates"?
    The irony is that, if the USA was at present *enjoying* President Trump's 2nd term, we'd probably be at less risk of going to all out war and global death. Coz Trump would have said Sure, have Ukraine, & Putin would have taken half of Ukraine, end of story

  • Scott_xP said:

    Every meeting with Liz Truss


    Shouldn't the flunky be wearing an Eton collar?
  • TimS said:

    Back in February at the start of the war I ran a location assessment to work out where to go in the event nuclear war looked likely, and what the trigger would be.

    For the trigger, unless your job and family situation allows, it’s not feasible to go very early and sit it out in a far flung location. We need to late enough that we’re not blowing our children’s schooling or my job.

    But leave it too late and you’re in the rush with millions of others and might struggle to make it out. Our current trigger is detonation of a tactical nuke by Putin.

    Location wise I followed the scorecard approach I take at work when I’m advising multinationals on where to put a new operation. Variables were speed and cost to get there and back, Covid and visa entry requirements, number of flights per week, agricultural self sufficiency, cost and standard of living, distance from blast and fallout, and avoiding flight paths over potential targets.

    Narrowed it down to Morocco or Ireland. Asia involved flying over CIS and E Europe and was too restrictive on entry requirements. S America also too difficult with visas and Covid rules for a quick getaway, and expensive to get to and back.

    Morocco was first choice. I think on balance it still is, but Ireland still in the running.

    How did you weight the variables?

    Ireland is great for proximity, but fallout?
    Much of S and C America would be fine for entry requirements.
    I recently learnt that Colombia has some English-speaking islands.
    There are some pre-nuclear possibilities that would make nuclear escalation a racing certainty.


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    edited September 2022

    We have an ideal diversion planned for Monday. We're off to hear Max Hastings talk about the Cuban Missile Crisis.
    Should be good though. Very interesting and very topical. Not to succumb to hyperbolic doomcasting - as if - but this does look a slightly precarious situation. Putin is attempting nuclear blackmail and at same time giving America no choice but to not give in to it. What a bad mad man.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    NEW: I understand “multiple” Conservative MPs are in talks with Labour in Parliament to defeat elements of the “mini-budget. Particular focus on 45p rate. Focus is on sending a signal to markets.

    Only takes around 35 Tories to rebel for defeat.

    More on my @lbc show shortly

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1575894055636160515
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Scott_xP said:

    Exc: Big row in govt about "carpet bombing the entire country" with investment zones and blank cheque for biz tax relief.

    Tory MP asks: “You either have investment zones or an investment country – if you want the latter, what’s the point in the former?”

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1575878717414539272

    Then you realise ... the 'supply side measures' that need to be 'delivered' with the '80 seat majority' are just made up on the hoof and have no content or substance.
    'Investment zones' are just the another variation of 'freeports' and prior to that, 'enterprise zones'.
    Its just the same nonsense.
    If you want to cut public spending, you have to cut welfare and health spending. Not creating obscure new tax loopholes that have all sorts of peverse consequences in other parts of the economy. The 'Tory MP' quoted above is correct.
    I don't understand how anyone can seriously believe that these people have a plan to 'take the hard decisions' to 'save the British economy'.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Keir Starmer can lock the imploding Tories out for a decade – if he gets the message right | Jonathan Freedland https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/30/keir-starmer-tories-labour-crisis?CMP=twt_gu&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium#Echobox=1664557126

    I think it is going to be more than a decade, and that is not great for democracy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,911

    I'd not survive long anyway, because... medical supplies.

    So, we'd sit here in rural Dorset and drink our best wine first, until fall-out, starvation, marauding refugees from the cities, or the end of said medical supplies finished us off.

    But cheer up - it's not going to happen. Putin's bluffing.
    Trouble is, an awful lot of well-informed people on social media and elsewhere think Putin might not be bluffing. The short-arse Russian is in deep shit, and also pretty crazy now
  • I'd not survive long anyway, because... medical supplies.

    So, we'd sit here in rural Dorset and drink our best wine first, until fall-out, starvation, marauding refugees from the cities, or the end of said medical supplies finished us off.

    But cheer up - it's not going to happen. Putin's bluffing.
    Honestly can’t say what I’d do. I live in an urban area so it’s entirely plausible I’d say put and take my chances (which wouldn’t be great, in all likelihood). Have a few relatives dotted about in semi-rural areas, they’d be options too potentially, though don’t suspect the aftermath of a global nuclear war would be much fun anyway so I’m not sure I can really get too far ahead of myself in thinking of hopeful escapes.
  • For the poster(s) criticising what we have been doing in Ukraine: what would you do differently now? What would you have done differently back in late February?
  • Carnyx said:

    2010-ish? Yes, that was about when the Scotsman and then GH stopped being decent middle of the road broadsheets anyway, which didn't help.
    Scotland needs a national media. National polling companies. And a national government.
  • Leon said:

    Trouble is, an awful lot of well-informed people on social media and elsewhere think Putin might not be bluffing. The short-arse Russian is in deep shit, and also pretty crazy now
    You need a new supply of worry beads
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    edited September 2022

    Scotland needs a national media. National polling companies. And a national government.
    Indeed yes. The lack of the last while the SNP screw everything up handing out gazillions in illegal contracts to their mates is a definite blot on Scotland's prospects.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    And here is the flipside...

    Ignore the hype: Keir Starmer remains unelectable

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/09/30/ignore-hype-keir-starmer-remains-unelectable/ @CamillaTominey
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839

    For the poster(s) criticising what we have been doing in Ukraine: what would you do differently now? What would you have done differently back in late February?

    With most of them, either (a) surrender to the Russians at once or (b) arm the Russians in exchange for cheap gas.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    Perhaps the "Investment Zones" are rather better known as "Marginal Tory Seats"?
    On the basis of the recent polling, that would be pretty much all the seats they currently hold.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,911

    How did you weight the variables?

    Ireland is great for proximity, but fallout?
    Much of S and C America would be fine for entry requirements.
    I recently learnt that Colombia has some English-speaking islands.
    There are some pre-nuclear possibilities that would make nuclear escalation a racing certainty.


    "There are some pre-nuclear possibilities that would make nuclear escalation a racing certainty."

    Such as?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    Scott_xP said:

    And here is the flipside...

    Ignore the hype: Keir Starmer remains unelectable

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/09/30/ignore-hype-keir-starmer-remains-unelectable/ @CamillaTominey

    Which might even be persuasive - if Liz Truss were not considerably more unelectable.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,507

    I think it is going to be more than a decade, and that is not great for democracy.
    Agreed, but the Tories should probably have thought of that before sticking two fingers up to the voting public.

    (Obviously some counting of chickens before they hatch is going on here.)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    This is an economic crisis made in Downing Street. More unfunded borrowing in investment zones will cause risk and uncertainty, fueling market chaos and leaving working people paying the price. We can’t afford any more reckless Tory economics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/30/liz-truss-to-push-ahead-with-unlimited-investment-zones-despite-costs-row?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    If we're all going to get freaked out by nuclear war, time to consider the more positive aspects of it:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAEmhqdLFs
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    North Morocco will surely suffer from radiation and fall out, there's a lot of NATO stuff just across the Med. And Gibraltar is likely to be one of the first places to be vaped

    Ireland surely the same. One easterly wind (and they do happen) and they get the fall out from the UK, plus the Russians will be landing bombs all over the Irish Sea looking for UK subs and boats

    Southern Morocco maybe. Essaouira?
    Foreign nationals will be in camps in short order everywhere in the aftermath of a large scale exchange as crumbling governments seek to maintain order and feed their own, there wont be a freedom of movement thang.
    I dispute Russia will be landing bombs in the Irish sea, they havent got the numbers, they need most of their ICBMs and sub launched stuff for the normal targets and their truck launched won't reach, plus the initial exchange will wipe out any further exchanges of any size.
    Britain would take maybe 10 to 20 strikes in a full exchange (if the Russian arsenal isnt rusted away to shit in the main)
  • Phil said:

    Agreed, but the Tories should probably have thought of that before sticking two fingers up to the voting public.

    (Obviously some counting of chickens before they hatch is going on here.)
    Sadly they (meaning the post 2016 incarnations of the leadership*) have been doing that for a while. It is called populism, and it starts by them sticking two fingers up at people they think don't matter, and before they realise it the only people they are not sticking two fingers up at are themselves.

    *this word used advisedly
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,453

    How did you weight the variables?

    Ireland is great for proximity, but fallout?
    Much of S and C America would be fine for entry requirements.
    I recently learnt that Colombia has some English-speaking islands.
    There are some pre-nuclear possibilities that would make nuclear escalation a racing certainty.

    I had 3 types of weighting: ones that would rule a country out altogether (like visa requirement or flying over war zone), some nice to haves with low scores (like cost of living) and other more important ones that were weighted twice as much (ease of getting there and back).

    I’d rather not go intercontinental if possible as it’s that much trickier to come back if it’s all a false alarm.

    Ireland would rely on westerlies. Would need to take heed of the medium term forecast. Also need to be far enough from Northern Ireland and Shannon airport.
  • Scott_xP said:

    And here is the flipside...

    Ignore the hype: Keir Starmer remains unelectable

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/09/30/ignore-hype-keir-starmer-remains-unelectable/ @CamillaTominey

    SKS fans please explain
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,743
    edited September 2022
    Foxy said:

    The torrential rain will wash a lot of the radioactive fallout away. Good call.
    Infinite supply of iodine rich kelp and all the sea birds a man can desire.

    Care to join me for tern a l'bladder rack this Christmas?
  • ydoethur said:

    If we're all going to get freaked out by nuclear war, time to consider the more positive aspects of it:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAEmhqdLFs

    Does the nuclear winter reduce global warming perhaps?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper @BMGResearch Just 18% of people back the 'mini' budget and 55% oppose it.

    But look at this table - every single measure in it is popular on net, *except* the end of the bonus cap and scrapping the 45p income tax rate.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/latest-polls-tory-voters-abandoned-party-liz-truss-budget-crisis-poll-1888362 https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1575884403946897413/photo/1

    Cut my taxes but not the rich guy. Yes please. But no follow up on whether you'd still be in favour if it meant mortgage rises, house price falls, public service cuts.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,911

    Foreign nationals will be in camps in short order everywhere in the aftermath of a large scale exchange as crumbling governments seek to maintain order and feed their own, there wont be a freedom of movement thang.
    I dispute Russia will be landing bombs in the Irish sea, they havent got the numbers, they need most of their ICBMs and sub launched stuff for the normal targets and their truck launched won't reach, plus the initial exchange will wipe out any further exchanges of any size.
    Britain would take maybe 10 to 20 strikes in a full exchange (if the Russian arsenal isnt rusted away to shit in the main)
    I mean their air force might actually be out in the Irish Sea searching for NATO kit (as will ours, in the oppoite way, of course)

    TBH I don't think anywhere in Europe or anywhere near to Europe would escape this, so that rules out Morocco and Ireland

    Australia it is, but when and how, as @TimS says? What is the trigger to run away?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Scott_xP said:

    And here is the flipside...

    Ignore the hype: Keir Starmer remains unelectable

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/09/30/ignore-hype-keir-starmer-remains-unelectable/ @CamillaTominey

    So Johnson , a corrupt pathological liar is electable but somehow Starmer isn’t !
  • Does anyone else find it (at least) odd, that a UK government would go out of it's way (according to it's own narrative) to exacerbate a fiscal crisis, smack dab in the middle of a hot European war, involving MAJOR threats (putting it mildly) to the UK and the world?

    I mean, WHO stands to benefit from pouring gasoline onto the burning building? The fire fighers - or the arsonist?
  • I think it is going to be more than a decade, and that is not great for democracy.
    No, it isn't.

    She has to be stopped. She's trashing her Party as well as the country. She has to be removed, immediately. A caretaker PM can be installed to serve until the election. A sensible Chancellor, probably Sunak, can run the economy unfettered. That won't be fun, but it will be survivable.

    Obviously this leads to electoral carnage at the GE but the seeds of regeneration will be there. Even they will be destroyed if the Party dithers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    In three words (what three words?) Leon with nukes.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,852
    TimS said:

    I had 3 types of weighting: ones that would rule a country out altogether (like visa requirement or flying over war zone), some nice to haves with low scores (like cost of living) and other more important ones that were weighted twice as much (ease of getting there and back).

    I’d rather not go intercontinental if possible as it’s that much trickier to come back if it’s all a false alarm.

    Ireland would rely on westerlies. Would need to take heed of the medium term forecast. Also need to be far enough from Northern Ireland and Shannon airport.
    What about Tenerife? Can't see it being on the target list.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,212
    edited September 2022

    Foreign nationals will be in camps in short order everywhere in the aftermath of a large scale exchange as crumbling governments seek to maintain order and feed their own, there wont be a freedom of movement thang.
    I dispute Russia will be landing bombs in the Irish sea, they havent got the numbers, they need most of their ICBMs and sub launched stuff for the normal targets and their truck launched won't reach, plus the initial exchange will wipe out any further exchanges of any size.
    Britain would take maybe 10 to 20 strikes in a full exchange (if the Russian arsenal isnt rusted away to shit in the main)
    Yes to be honest you’re probably best in some respects staying put in the UK. Yes we’d take a lot of hits but you have ID and a passport and an address (destroyed or no) and a social security record. If there is some functioning government or central authority you probably stand a better chance of getting whatever assistance can be provided.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081

    No, it isn't.

    She has to be stopped. She's trashing her Party as well as the country. She has to be removed, immediately. A caretaker PM can be installed to serve until the election. A sensible Chancellor, probably Sunak, can run the economy unfettered. That won't be fun, but it will be survivable.

    Obviously this leads to electoral carnage at the GE but the seeds of regeneration will be there. Even they will be destroyed if the Party dithers.
    They need to defeat her in the Commons.

    Common sense won't work. Logic, reason; useless. Cataclysmic polling, irrelevant.

    Total meltdown of the UK economy, not important.

    They will have to vote down every single batshit measure she proposes.

    Then VONC her.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    IshmaelZ said:

    It's against the rules of Lloyd's and I assume also the companies market to write land based war risks.
    You can buy war-on-land coverage. Just not in a current war zone.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,911
    edited September 2022
    TimS said:

    I had 3 types of weighting: ones that would rule a country out altogether (like visa requirement or flying over war zone), some nice to haves with low scores (like cost of living) and other more important ones that were weighted twice as much (ease of getting there and back).

    I’d rather not go intercontinental if possible as it’s that much trickier to come back if it’s all a false alarm.

    Ireland would rely on westerlies. Would need to take heed of the medium term forecast. Also need to be far enough from Northern Ireland and Shannon airport.
    Did you do this as a kind of joke, or intellectual puzzle? Or did you approach it with serious intent?

    Not a hostile question. I am genuinely intrigued by the different reactions to this
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,911
    In which Frankie Boyle demonstrates that he still doesn't understand deterrence

    "Amazing that no matter how bad things get, scrapping Trident is just never mentioned. A non issue across the political spectrum. The genius of placing it in Scotland, whose Unpeople may sadly have to be consumed by incendiary light, while more important matters are debated"

    https://twitter.com/frankieboyle/status/1575896652313153537?s=20&t=e-c9feUhLwyd5N3H1MCCqw
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited September 2022

    How did you weight the variables?

    Ireland is great for proximity, but fallout?
    Much of S and C America would be fine for entry requirements.
    I recently learnt that Colombia has some English-speaking islands.
    There are some pre-nuclear possibilities that would make nuclear escalation a racing certainty.


    Ireland is at minimal risk of fallout unless theres an east or north wind blowing, so just hunker down for 3 to 4 weeks and then any risk would be down to being unlucky/increased cancer risks. Fallout might remain in the atmosphere for up to 5 years but not at lethal levels in and of itself, its that first month you need to keep bulk between you and the atmosphere. In good old Blighty there will be immeduate areas that remain lethal long term but avoid them and after a few weeks you can look forward to the brave new world
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839

    What about Tenerife? Can't see it being on the target list.
    Doesn't have much water though, does it?
  • Does anyone else find it (at least) odd, that a UK government would go out of it's way (according to it's own narrative) to exacerbate a fiscal crisis, smack dab in the middle of a hot European war, involving MAJOR threats (putting it mildly) to the UK and the world?

    I mean, WHO stands to benefit from pouring gasoline onto the burning building? The fire fighers - or the arsonist?

    This is Q-Anon level stuff. You might as well imply that the Federal Reserve is secretly working for Russia by hiking rates so quickly and creating market dislocations around the world.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Scott_xP said:

    This is an economic crisis made in Downing Street. More unfunded borrowing in investment zones will cause risk and uncertainty, fueling market chaos and leaving working people paying the price. We can’t afford any more reckless Tory economics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/30/liz-truss-to-push-ahead-with-unlimited-investment-zones-despite-costs-row?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    This is so stupid. It is exhausting.
    Liz Truss seems to have a basic lack of knowledge about how the world works.
    Governments require TAX to function. She is basically arguing for a policy of unlimited domestic tax havens. Tax havens, everywhere.
    So where does the government get tax from in this new world? Perhaps that is just an irritating matter of annoying detail that can be worked out 'down the line'.

    They go on about stripping back planning as well, but that is a total red herring, for all the reasons explained by Zack Simons here, someone who really knows his stuff being a top planning barrister.

    https://www.planoraks.com/posts-1/investment-zones

    I am seriously wondering if we are living through the complete breakdown of government.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Leon said:

    Trouble is, an awful lot of well-informed people on social media and elsewhere think Putin might not be bluffing. The short-arse Russian is in deep shit, and also pretty crazy now
    Isn't that the reason for a possible NATO announcement of some protection for Ukraine. A message like this:

    Gay Horse Riding Mad Vlad any Nuclear explosion in Ukraine and you personally are toast, your infrastructure is toast, your army and navy are toast. NATO will decimate you.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,852
    edited September 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Doesn't have much water though, does it?
    Hmm. Probably not in the summer. Are their desalination plants solar/wind powered or do they rely on oil?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    darkage said:

    This is so stupid. It is exhausting.

    Liz Truss seems to have a basic lack of knowledge about how the world works.

    I am seriously wondering if we are living through the complete breakdown of government.

    She is slavishly following this economic model

    https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1575419240592580608
  • What about Tenerife? Can't see it being on the target list.
    You’ve got to hope that someone somewhere is going to still be in a position to ship food in, because once the stocks run out what happens then?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Yes to be honest you’re probably best in some respects staying put in the UK. Yes we’d take a lot of hits but you have ID and a passport and an address (destroyed or no) and a social security record. If there is some functioning government or central authority you probably stand a better chance of getting whatever assistance can be provided.
    Precisely. The worst places to be will be London, Devonport, Portsmouth, near Fylingdales, Holy Loch, Faslane, upwind from the bigger air bases, tee and tyneside, midlands industrial belt, cheltenham
    There arent really enough nukes on standby for them to hit more than that lot (its enough!), most of Russias arsenal is aimed to taking out the US.
  • SKS fans please explain
    I am almost lost for words after reading that. She seems to think that the world is ganging up on Liz Truss.

    She only left out the Illumnati, aliens and the Freemasons ...
  • Cicero said:

    A Potemkin crowd for a Potemkin Hitler. The whole country is now more or less an empty theatre, and the hall of war criminals watching the farcial proceedings already knew that. In good Scots we´d call it a toom tabard on a shoogly peg.
    "We must defend Russian culture from western colonialist hegemony"

    *sings ripoff of a TikTok sea shanty meme from two years ago*


    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1575868888327524352

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    Leon said:

    In which Frankie Boyle demonstrates that he still doesn't understand deterrence

    "Amazing that no matter how bad things get, scrapping Trident is just never mentioned. A non issue across the political spectrum. The genius of placing it in Scotland, whose Unpeople may sadly have to be consumed by incendiary light, while more important matters are debated"

    https://twitter.com/frankieboyle/status/1575896652313153537?s=20&t=e-c9feUhLwyd5N3H1MCCqw

    Do you feel safer from homeland attack here than you would in Spain?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,453
    Leon said:

    Did you do this as a kind of joke, or intellectual puzzle? Or did you approach it with serious intent?

    Not a hostile question. I am genuinely intrigued by the different reactions to this
    Serious intent. It only took a couple of hours on a rainy Saturday.

    Going to dust it down now the stakes have been upped again.

    I still think a nuclear exchange would be more geographically contained than outright global conflagration, hence the focus on short haul.

    Getting the children out of school though, and explaining to the head. I mean I don’t mind the £60 fine but being told off by Trish the school secretary is quite a frightening prospect.
  • Leon said:

    "There are some pre-nuclear possibilities that would make nuclear escalation a racing certainty."

    Such as?
    Any air fight between NATO and Russia. 95% the war goes nuclear if so. This is possible around Lyman.

    Ukraine in NATO leads to the above.

    Arguably any direct NATO involvement in fighting inside any of the 5 territories.

    More like 50% (or at least there might be a week or so in which to act) if

    - Russia issues an ultimatum against encircling forces around Lyman
    - there are NordStream-type attacks on western installations (not necessarily energy-related) even if they are supposed to be by perpetrators unknown
    - surprise events such as assassinations
  • glwglw Posts: 10,254
    kinabalu said:

    Do you feel safer from homeland attack here than you would in Spain?
    Do you think Ukraine became a safer place to be by giving up their nuclear weapons?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    Scott_xP said:

    And here is the flipside...

    Ignore the hype: Keir Starmer remains unelectable

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/09/30/ignore-hype-keir-starmer-remains-unelectable/ @CamillaTominey

    Camilla Tominey ... lol.

    Where do they get these people?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    I mean their air force might actually be out in the Irish Sea searching for NATO kit (as will ours, in the oppoite way, of course)

    TBH I don't think anywhere in Europe or anywhere near to Europe would escape this, so that rules out Morocco and Ireland

    Australia it is, but when and how, as @TimS says? What is the trigger to run away?
    Russian air force wont make it over, its shit, NATO would utterly crush them for air superiority i think in pretty short order
    Scottish West Coast fishing villages are the place to be in the UK
    As for triggers, tricky, you may well find the point you should go is just after they stop international travel
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited September 2022
    News from GOP = Grifters on Parade:

    NYT ($) DeSantis, Once a ‘No’ on Storm Aid, Petitions a President He’s Bashed
    The Florida governor, who as a congressman opposed aid to victims of Hurricane Sandy, is seeking relief from the Biden administration as Hurricane Ian ravages his own state.

    As a freshman congressman in 2013, Ron DeSantis was unambiguous: A federal bailout for the New York region after Hurricane Sandy was an irresponsible boondoggle, a symbol of the “put it on the credit card mentality” he had come to Washington to oppose.

    “I sympathize with the victims,” he said. But his answer was no.

    Nearly a decade later, as his state confronts the devastation and costly destruction wrought by Hurricane Ian, Mr. DeSantis is appealing to the nation’s better angels — and betting on its short memory.

    “As you say, Tucker, we live in a very politicized time,” Mr. DeSantis, now Florida’s governor, told Tucker Carlson on Wednesday night, outlining his request for full federal reimbursement up front for 60 days and urging the Biden administration to do the right thing. “But you know, when people are fighting for their lives, when their whole livelihood is at stake, when they’ve lost everything — if you can’t put politics aside for that, then you’re just not going to be able to.”

    SSI - Two Fuckers doing what they do best: bull-shitting.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,911
    kinabalu said:

    Do you feel safer from homeland attack here than you would in Spain?
    Yes. Also safer than Germany, Holland, Poland, Baltics, etc

    eg There is a chance Putin will drop one strategic warhead to show he REALLY means it (I've seen this discussed by experts). Probably on a major western European nation

    Britain and France would be tempting targets, because they are rich, high profile and hostile to Russia, but they both have nukes. They will probably retaliate and smoke Moscow and St Petersburg and a few other cities. Catastrophe for Putin

    So Putin would choose somewhere else. So deterrence works

    We know this because Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Ukraine had nukes. No one has tried to destroy Israel - because Israel has nukes. Ditto North Korea. And so on

    Nukes work. They deter. What fool would now unilaterally get rid of Trident, after all that we have seen?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Having read the latest on these investment zones I really do think that Truss and Kwarteng are delusional and a clear and present danger to the UK.

    They need to be removed before they do any further damage .
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Leon said:

    Yes. Also safer than Germany, Holland, Poland, Baltics, etc

    eg There is a chance Putin will drop one strategic warhead to show he REALLY means it (I've seen this discussed by experts). Probably on a major western European nation

    Britain and France would be tempting targets, because they are rich, high profile and hostile to Russia, but they both have nukes. They will probably retaliate and smoke Moscow and St Petersburg and a few other cities. Catastrophe for Putin

    So Putin would choose somewhere else. So deterrence works

    We know this because Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Ukraine had nukes. No one has tried to destroy Israel - because Israel has nukes. Ditto North Korea. And so on

    Nukes work. They deter. What fool would now unilaterally get rid of Trident, after all that we have seen?
    A Scottish Nationalist?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    You can buy war-on-land coverage. Just not in a current war zone.
    Not at Lloyd's unless the rules have changed
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,911
    pigeon said:

    A Scottish Nationalist?
    Yes. Like Frankie Boyle

    They are lost in some dreamworld like we are still living in 1996 and enjoying some "peace dividend" and we can give up our nukes and Putin will see the light. FFS
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Precisely. The worst places to be will be London, Devonport, Portsmouth, near Fylingdales, Holy Loch, Faslane, upwind from the bigger air bases, tee and tyneside, midlands industrial belt, cheltenham
    There arent really enough nukes on standby for them to hit more than that lot (its enough!), most of Russias arsenal is aimed to taking out the US.
    Downwind, I think you mean?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,138
    ydoethur said:

    Doesn't have much water though, does it?
    It had a lot earlier this week - just after I left thank goodness.
  • This is Q-Anon level stuff. You might as well imply that the Federal Reserve is secretly working for Russia by hiking rates so quickly and creating market dislocations around the world.
    You seem quite defensive. More so than persuasive. As per your recent postings.

    Current HMG (BoJo & Bojo Lite) IS on record has having granted peerage to at least on security risk, is it not?

    And ever hear of Alger Hiss and Kim Philby, just to name a few fellow security risks who managed to become quite influential in government circles of their time & place?
  • Leon said:

    Yes. Also safer than Germany, Holland, Poland, Baltics, etc

    eg There is a chance Putin will drop one strategic warhead to show he REALLY means it (I've seen this discussed by experts). Probably on a major western European nation

    Britain and France would be tempting targets, because they are rich, high profile and hostile to Russia, but they both have nukes. They will probably retaliate and smoke Moscow and St Petersburg and a few other cities. Catastrophe for Putin

    So Putin would choose somewhere else. So deterrence works

    We know this because Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Ukraine had nukes. No one has tried to destroy Israel - because Israel has nukes. Ditto North Korea. And so on

    Nukes work. They deter. What fool would now unilaterally get rid of Trident, after all that we have seen?
    Scott_xP said:

    She is slavishly following this economic model

    https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1575419240592580608
    I think she is being advised by @BartholomewRoberts. For free obv.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Leon said:

    Trouble is, an awful lot of well-informed people on social media and elsewhere think Putin might not be bluffing. The short-arse Russian is in deep shit, and also pretty crazy now
    Who are these people? With all respect Leon you aren't averse to hysteria and I'm sure there are a fair few people making a living from spreading it.

    I'm strangely relaxed about the prospect of armageddon. As a single man I'm probably quite expendable and prepared to take the risk of staring down Mr Putin. I do have nieces and nephews though which gives me pause for thought.

    As for locations, have you considered Penarth? It's raining cats and dogs down this way but you'd be safe for a while at least unless Vlad drops the big one on Wales.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Carnyx said:

    Downwind, I think you mean?
    Yes, i believe you are right!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Who are these people? With all respect Leon you aren't averse to hysteria and I'm sure there are a fair few people making a living from spreading it.

    I'm strangely relaxed about the prospect of armageddon. As a single man I'm probably quite expendable and prepared to take the risk of staring down Mr Putin. I do have nieces and nephews though which gives me pause for thought.

    As for locations, have you considered Penarth? It's raining cats and dogs down this way but you'd be safe for a while at least unless Vlad drops the big one on Wales.
    Downwind from St Mawgan ...
This discussion has been closed.