🚨EXC: One of the most prominent economists backing Truss warned Government figures **before** the mini-Budget that it could spook the markets. Here’s what Gerard Lyons told me today.
I think Starmer will be a very popular PM. Because he will look wonderful compared to what has gone before
Yes, he will, for about 3 weeks. Until he has to do the necessary
He hasn't got the charisma needed to be a severe doctor giving you enemas, like Thatcher. He's a tolerably dull hired consultant, with a weirdly squeaky pen, who will bore you from minute 10 and then deeply irritate you after a quarter of an hour and then you will want to murder him after 1 hour max
That's our political future
Look on the bright side @Leon - it will give you something to rail about for five years.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
What it might mean, though, is that the Labour vote share spikes (artificially) at the next GE and they take it as a firm mandate to do their own version of their hobby horse batshittery, with extreme Wokery and nannying.
They could come down again with a thud just as quick. But so be it.
Hopefully the quick suspension of Rupa Huq may point to a not-so-woke future?
Only if Labour de select her for the next GE
Huw was awful, I have no problem with deselecting her.
Let's hope too that Rob Roberts and Chris Pincher are also deselected for the next election
There's quite a few others - Webbe, Corbyn, 2 SNP, 1 Plaid, the guy in Somerton, Neil Coyle,
As the BoE intervention expires in 13 days, what is the PB stock club thinking about personal investment strategy?
Does it all kick off again? What to sell and what to buy? Are we really heading for a crash like March 2020 or the GFC?
I would say not and if there is any risk that it will the intervention will be extended. This is not a good situation and, as the government has just discovered, we have a lot less room for manouvre than we thought but it still doesn't feel anything like as bad as 2008/9. That was genuinely frightening.
We had plenty of room for manoeuvre. We were borrowing heavily after covid and the government had also promised to support energy bills. But they then went for a big giveaway to top it all off and didn't even provide costings.
Where is HYUFD tonight ? He will surely always hold out, as the test of the Tories staying above critical mass.
If HYUFD were to abandon Essex Conservatism, my monocle would fall into my whisky, I would be shocked and appalled, and the world just wouldn't be right anymore.
But surely he wouldn't.
HYUFD was ahead of the game in saying Truss was a sub-optimal choice.
To be fair I think most people on here were saying something along those lines. It was more a question of whether or not the members would be daft enough to elect her.
A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.
In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend
In the words of TSE, 'legendary modesty' etc.
However yes getting rid of Johnson and Sunak going has been a complete disaster for the Tories. It was as strong a partnership for the Conservatives as Blair and Brown was for Labour and once that broke up Labour failed to win a general election for now 15 years and counting and on this week's events sadly I fear the Tories face a similar fate unless the likely Starmer Labour government really mucks up
Well, on the "upside" I seriously doubt Starmer will enjoy benign economic conditions. He will become very unpopular very quickly. A Prime Minister of Deep Austerity. Not Tony Blair with his golden economic legacy handing out the dosh
I predict he will valiantly give us our medicine, not do it particularly well, then he will be kicked out for his pains, in 2028-9
The timing may well suit him. The next two years will be economically awful, but all things pass and by 2025 things will pick up, and he can gain the credit. He does seem to be a lucky general.
Nah, that's bollocks. This is not the average recession which will be done in 18 months
This is systemic and deep, and will take several years - maybe many years - to work through. Everywhere is fucked. China included: check their vital signs. Debt abounds
We are in for a troubled decade of penury and scrimping. And that's if the war ends relatively well for the world. Thinking otherwise is delusional
🚨EXC: One of the most prominent economists backing Truss warned Government figures **before** the mini-Budget that it could spook the markets. Here’s what Gerard Lyons told me today.
Where is HYUFD tonight ? He will surely always hold out, as the test of the Tories staying above critical mass.
If HYUFD were to abandon Essex Conservatism, my monocle would fall into my whisky, I would be shocked and appalled, and the world just wouldn't be right anymore.
But surely he wouldn't.
HYUFD was ahead of the game in saying Truss was a sub-optimal choice.
To be fair I think most people on here were saying something along those lines. It was more a question of whether or not the members would be daft enough to elect her.
It was however distinctly original to claim that retaining Johnson A as PM was the optimal solution.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
What it might mean, though, is that the Labour vote share spikes (artificially) at the next GE and they take it as a firm mandate to do their own version of their hobby horse batshittery, with extreme Wokery and nannying.
They could come down again with a thud just as quick. But so be it.
Hopefully the quick suspension of Rupa Huq may point to a not-so-woke future?
Only if Labour de select her for the next GE
Huw was awful, I have no problem with deselecting her.
Let's hope too that Rob Roberts and Chris Pincher are also deselected for the next election
There's quite a few others - Webbe, Corbyn, 2 SNP, 1 Plaid, the guy in Somerton, Neil Coyle,
The guy in Somerton is David Warburton, but yeah, he should go too.
Where is HYUFD tonight ? He will surely always hold out, as the test of the Tories staying above critical mass.
If HYUFD were to abandon Essex Conservatism, my monocle would fall into my whisky, I would be shocked and appalled, and the world just wouldn't be right anymore.
But surely he wouldn't.
HYUFD was ahead of the game in saying Truss was a sub-optimal choice.
No he fucking wasn't. Everybody said that, many of them earlier and more cogently than him.
Looks like the Ukrainians have surrounded Lyman. From an amateur map observer it looks like Ukraine are pushing for another encirclement further North too.
SitRep Lyman/Kupyansk - 28/09 - Thread
Lyman: what do we know?
✅Visual confirmation of AFU 🇺🇦 control over Novoselivka, Zelena Dolyna ➡️AFU 🇺🇦 reportedly reached the Zherebets river at Nevs'ke, Novolyubivka and Ivanivka ➡️AFU 🇺🇦 is advancing on Stavky road north of Lyman
That was how the Hundred Days in 1918 worked - advances made Into the weak areas, creating salients. Either the Germans retreated or got caught. And it went on and on….
Also reports that some defenders in that area were mobilised locally 3 days previously with no training. God knows what they were given to defend themselves. Literal cannon-fodder.
A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.
In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend
In the words of TSE, 'legendary modesty' etc.
However yes getting rid of Johnson and Sunak going has been a complete disaster for the Tories. It was as strong a partnership for the Conservatives as Blair and Brown was for Labour and once that broke up Labour failed to win a general election for now 15 years and counting and on this week's events sadly I fear the Tories face a similar fate unless the likely Starmer Labour government really mucks up
Well, on the "upside" I seriously doubt Starmer will enjoy benign economic conditions. He will become very unpopular very quickly. A Prime Minister of Deep Austerity. Not Tony Blair with his golden economic legacy handing out the dosh
I predict he will valiantly give us our medicine, not do it particularly well, then he will be kicked out for his pains, in 2028-9
Starmer will also greatly increase tax and impose a wealth tax, he will likely face strikes from the left (I see he still allowed them to sing the red flag today) and yes will soon face big problems.
However it may not be him who leads Labour into a re election battle, the more charismatic and dynamic Wes Streeting is a good bet to be next Labour leader if having reached No 10 Starmer decides not to run again. Streeting the Macron to Starmer's Hollande or the Buttigieg to Starmer's Biden
DM front page at last. Hmm, massive dead giant squirrel* and female hominine pic, and only mention of pensions is to blame some City wide boys or something.
🚨EXC: One of the most prominent economists backing Truss warned Government figures **before** the mini-Budget that it could spook the markets. Here’s what Gerard Lyons told me today.
Where is HYUFD tonight ? He will surely always hold out, as the test of the Tories staying above critical mass.
If HYUFD were to abandon Essex Conservatism, my monocle would fall into my whisky, I would be shocked and appalled, and the world just wouldn't be right anymore.
But surely he wouldn't.
HYUFD was ahead of the game in saying Truss was a sub-optimal choice.
To be fair I think most people on here were saying something along those lines. It was more a question of whether or not the members would be daft enough to elect her.
It was however distinctly original to claim that retaining Johnson A as PM was the optimal solution.
DM front page at last. Hmm, massive dead giant squirrel* and female hominine pic, and only mention of pensions is to blame some City wide boys or something.
Carole Walker @carolewalkercw · 8m Tonight on @TimesRadio .. @DavidGauke tells me govt has “pretty well lost its reputation for economic competence”. Says there’s “a lot of disquiet amongst Conservative MPs” who are “looking at what their options are”
I think Starmer will be a very popular PM. Because he will look wonderful compared to what has gone before
Yes, he will, for about 3 weeks. Until he has to do the necessary
He hasn't got the charisma needed to be a severe doctor giving you enemas, like Thatcher. He's a tolerably dull hired consultant, with a weirdly squeaky pen, who will bore you from minute 10 and then deeply irritate you after a quarter of an hour and then you will want to murder him after 1 hour max
That's our political future
You’ve hated him since the day he was elected. So forgive me if I take your views with a giant grain of salt
I'm trying to spare you further psychic pain
Labour are going to be the next government: yay for you. You've waited long enough. But they will not be popular like Blair (or even early Cameron) because, events, facts, and general shiteness. They will be boring and loathed. Indeed I cannot see a single thing they can do which will be 1. affordable and 2. widely popular
I think Starmer will be a very popular PM. Because he will look wonderful compared to what has gone before
Yes, he will, for about 3 weeks. Until he has to do the necessary
He hasn't got the charisma needed to be a severe doctor giving you enemas, like Thatcher. He's a tolerably dull hired consultant, with a weirdly squeaky pen, who will bore you from minute 10 and then deeply irritate you after a quarter of an hour and then you will want to murder him after 1 hour max
That's our political future
You’ve hated him since the day he was elected. So forgive me if I take your views with a giant grain of salt
I'm trying to spare you further psychic pain
Labour are going to be the next government: yay for you. You've waited long enough. But they will not be popular like Blair (or even early Cameron) because, events, facts, and general shiteness. They will be boring and loathed. Indeed I cannot see a single thing they can do which will be 1. affordable and 2. widely popular
I think Starmer will be a very popular PM. Because he will look wonderful compared to what has gone before
Yes, he will, for about 3 weeks. Until he has to do the necessary
He hasn't got the charisma needed to be a severe doctor giving you enemas, like Thatcher. He's a tolerably dull hired consultant, with a weirdly squeaky pen, who will bore you from minute 10 and then deeply irritate you after a quarter of an hour and then you will want to murder him after 1 hour max
That's our political future
You’ve hated him since the day he was elected. So forgive me if I take your views with a giant grain of salt
I'm trying to spare you further psychic pain
Labour are going to be the next government: yay for you. You've waited long enough. But they will not be popular like Blair (or even early Cameron) because, events, facts, and general shiteness. They will be boring and loathed. Indeed I cannot see a single thing they can do which will be 1. affordable and 2. widely popular
If you can, do tell. I'd quite like to be cheered
Consign Truss to the political wasteland - affordable and popular.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
What it might mean, though, is that the Labour vote share spikes (artificially) at the next GE and they take it as a firm mandate to do their own version of their hobby horse batshittery, with extreme Wokery and nannying.
They could come down again with a thud just as quick. But so be it.
Hopefully the quick suspension of Rupa Huq may point to a not-so-woke future?
Only if Labour de select her for the next GE
Huw was awful, I have no problem with deselecting her.
Let's hope too that Rob Roberts and Chris Pincher are also deselected for the next election
There's quite a few others - Webbe, Corbyn, 2 SNP, 1 Plaid, the guy in Somerton, Neil Coyle,
The guy in Somerton is David Warburton, but yeah, he should go too.
DM front page at last. Hmm, massive dead giant squirrel* and female hominine pic, and only mention of pensions is to blame some City wide boys or something.
DM front page at last. Hmm, massive dead giant squirrel* and female hominine pic, and only mention of pensions is to blame some City wide boys or something.
Tory increased their share of vote in that one by 1%. Should steady the ship. Not a bad poll for them to be going up despite the media narrative as backdrop when is was taken.
Are you being a Tory again? Your posts today have been bizarre
I take polling posts seriously, I wouldn’t say anything deliberately untrue, though I could make a mistake. double check my checking if you like.
Maybe a touch tongue in cheek, as that last poll I think was January. Though, on the other hand, it shows the firm does double digit leads and sub 30 Tories so are not a Kantor or Techne.
My other posts today are not bizarre, they are actually true, cutting through the hyperbole on here today if you listen to what I am saying.
What I am saying is really straightforward. The growth budget, with a couple of little ideological flourishes which have back fired, and the quarter of a trillion borrowing for Bill Freezing are actually two very different fiscal events, the chancellor has unwisely blurred together. The markets are not, IMF mostly not, attacking the growth budget - the growth budget isn’t a huge financial risk problem on its own. It is actually UK putting it out there we intend to borrow nearly a quarter of a trillion to freeze our consumers energy bills for a few years the markets are saying no to - the markets are saying no, we assess you are not in a great position to manage that size of largesse right now.
The government needs to decide if they want to borrow to support gas prices or not. Doing so and cutting taxes at the same time is a no no.
And I find it very odd that you seem to KNOW what the market is thinking. Particularly since the market did not react like this to the gas price announcement. It was a response to the giveaway statement. So the government can withdraw the energy support if the tax cuts are non-negotiable and the public can decide if that was a sensible choice.
To answer your question, The markets were waiting on last Friday before acting, waiting in hope of more detail and reassurance. The chancellor surprised them with more tax cuts, never a clever thing to surprise markets already volatile with unexpected bad news. There’s also an element where international economists like the IMF and the markets have not been doing their jobs properly by not reacting sooner to UKs unnecessary quarter trillion loan for hand outs madness, in their defence, a weak defence, they will say CoE couldv announced different things last Friday about size of borrowing and how it’s to be financed. As if.
I am right though, it is the quarter trillion loan for handouts that is making us such a borrowing risk, it’s not the growth budget bits on their own the markets and IMF reacted negatively too.
And I am right, the quarter trillion loan, half of which handed out to people who don’t even need it, is insane, unessary and with a regressive social impact on our society in equal measure. Do we need to commit to two and half years up front, do we need to give so much to those who don’t need it, could we blend it with other options to create a vastly cheaper vastly better targeted hybrid approach - thinking outside box is what defines leaders in moments of crisis. And could we not pay a bit of it from windfall tax - some of the company’s themselves blow warm on windfall now almost like imagining themselves becoming greedy villains of the piece, giving them some chance to make their own contribution to the crisis with windfall tax can actually be a win win.
All of that together will pacify the markets and the critics, without a single change on the growth budget or a single public service cut.
All true this. And now you know it true cause I told you so. 😇
Carole Walker @carolewalkercw · 8m Tonight on @TimesRadio .. @DavidGauke tells me govt has “pretty well lost its reputation for economic competence”. Says there’s “a lot of disquiet amongst Conservative MPs” who are “looking at what their options are”
Start again, divested of the poisonous legacy. The Tory party is dying, the country needs a sensible centre right option and a working class focussed small c conservative option.
Where is HYUFD tonight ? He will surely always hold out, as the test of the Tories staying above critical mass.
If HYUFD were to abandon Essex Conservatism, my monocle would fall into my whisky, I would be shocked and appalled, and the world just wouldn't be right anymore.
But surely he wouldn't.
HYUFD was ahead of the game in saying Truss was a sub-optimal choice.
I think Starmer will be a very popular PM. Because he will look wonderful compared to what has gone before
Yes, he will, for about 3 weeks. Until he has to do the necessary
He hasn't got the charisma needed to be a severe doctor giving you enemas, like Thatcher. He's a tolerably dull hired consultant, with a weirdly squeaky pen, who will bore you from minute 10 and then deeply irritate you after a quarter of an hour and then you will want to murder him after 1 hour max
That's our political future
You’ve hated him since the day he was elected. So forgive me if I take your views with a giant grain of salt
I'm trying to spare you further psychic pain
Labour are going to be the next government: yay for you. You've waited long enough. But they will not be popular like Blair (or even early Cameron) because, events, facts, and general shiteness. They will be boring and loathed. Indeed I cannot see a single thing they can do which will be 1. affordable and 2. widely popular
If you can, do tell. I'd quite like to be cheered
Not be the Tories
A pleasing feeling which will last for about, ooh, a month. As I say
British voters have got used to their governments just forking out money so they can all stay home and eat sourdough and not catch the flu. It turns out this was a terrible policy which has screwed our finances (as elsewhere in the world) and also left everyone horribly complacent and entitled
This delusional world is now colliding with reality, in shattering style. We can't afford this crap. We can't afford a tax office which takes 8 months to process 2 documents because everyone is WFH and fancies a nap
It's over. Bitter reality is kicking in. Ask the Ukrainians
There is a very good book by Erik Larson called Issac's Storm about the Galveston Hurricane of 1900. The storm surge killed thousands of people and led to Houston usurping Galveston as the major port in Texas.
On the bright side, it is increasingly looking like there maybe a strong case for axing Trident renewal! In a years time the nuclear deterrent as a concept will either be moot or the main potential antagonist will have departed the scene...
I must say I'm surprised and pleased to see some of our most committed Tory posters talking about giving Starmer their vote next time. I think the Tories will be in the mid-to-low 20's soon.
For a lot of what you might call natural conservative voters, what we're really saying is we're pro-business, pro-stability and pro-economic competence. We want the economy to do well, because that's how we believe the whole populace prospers.
We vote for the party with policies that will lead to stability and prosperity economically. Historically that has been the Conservative Party. But it clearly is not now.
The Conservatives do not own my vote. And they certainly lost it this week.
We are at Ratner levels of self-destruction by the Tory Party. The membership have blown their own party to pieces. Maybe they knew in their hearts that it was time for Opposition.
One thing that puzzled me at the time of the Conservative "leadership" election, and now, is that the party "membership" appears to be less-than-well audited?
At least yours truly ain't aware of any auditing, say by the national party HQ or committee or whatever?
NOT that issues re: party membership roles are exclusive to the Conservative and Unionist Party. Not hardly!
Which is of course just one reason why in the US over a century ago, Gov. "Fighting Bob" LaFolette of Wisconsin launched the Primary election, as way of choosing party nominees by open, popular vote as opposed to closed party (hack) conventions. An idea that REALLY caught on, as you may have noticed.
I think Starmer will be a very popular PM. Because he will look wonderful compared to what has gone before
Yes, he will, for about 3 weeks. Until he has to do the necessary
He hasn't got the charisma needed to be a severe doctor giving you enemas, like Thatcher. He's a tolerably dull hired consultant, with a weirdly squeaky pen, who will bore you from minute 10 and then deeply irritate you after a quarter of an hour and then you will want to murder him after 1 hour max
That's our political future
You’ve hated him since the day he was elected. So forgive me if I take your views with a giant grain of salt
I'm trying to spare you further psychic pain
Labour are going to be the next government: yay for you. You've waited long enough. But they will not be popular like Blair (or even early Cameron) because, events, facts, and general shiteness. They will be boring and loathed. Indeed I cannot see a single thing they can do which will be 1. affordable and 2. widely popular
If you can, do tell. I'd quite like to be cheered
Not be the Tories
Yup. And that's the great service that Truss and co have done for the nation.
By being this awful, they have made sure that Starmer and co will look good in comparison. They may be the political equivalent of a muddy puddle, but they are now a muddy puddle in the middle of a desert.
Carole Walker @carolewalkercw · 8m Tonight on @TimesRadio .. @DavidGauke tells me govt has “pretty well lost its reputation for economic competence”. Says there’s “a lot of disquiet amongst Conservative MPs” who are “looking at what their options are”
Start again, divested of the poisonous legacy. The Tory party is dying, the country needs a sensible centre right option and a working class focussed small c conservative option.
I think Starmer will be a very popular PM. Because he will look wonderful compared to what has gone before
Yes, he will, for about 3 weeks. Until he has to do the necessary
He hasn't got the charisma needed to be a severe doctor giving you enemas, like Thatcher. He's a tolerably dull hired consultant, with a weirdly squeaky pen, who will bore you from minute 10 and then deeply irritate you after a quarter of an hour and then you will want to murder him after 1 hour max
That's our political future
You’ve hated him since the day he was elected. So forgive me if I take your views with a giant grain of salt
I'm trying to spare you further psychic pain
Labour are going to be the next government: yay for you. You've waited long enough. But they will not be popular like Blair (or even early Cameron) because, events, facts, and general shiteness. They will be boring and loathed. Indeed I cannot see a single thing they can do which will be 1. affordable and 2. widely popular
If you can, do tell. I'd quite like to be cheered
Not be the Tories
A pleasing feeling which will last for about, ooh, a month. As I say
British voters have got used to their governments just forking out money so they can all stay home and eat sourdough and not catch the flu. It turns out this was a terrible policy which has screwed our finances (as elsewhere in the world) and also left everyone horribly complacent and entitled
This delusional world is now colliding with reality, in shattering style. We can't afford this crap. We can't afford a tax office which takes 8 months to process 2 documents because everyone is WFH and fancies a nap
It's over. Bitter reality is kicking in. Ask the Ukrainians
Don't worry you'll be back talking about irrelevant things like aliens tomorrow
I think Starmer will be a very popular PM. Because he will look wonderful compared to what has gone before
Yes, he will, for about 3 weeks. Until he has to do the necessary
He hasn't got the charisma needed to be a severe doctor giving you enemas, like Thatcher. He's a tolerably dull hired consultant, with a weirdly squeaky pen, who will bore you from minute 10 and then deeply irritate you after a quarter of an hour and then you will want to murder him after 1 hour max
That's our political future
You’ve hated him since the day he was elected. So forgive me if I take your views with a giant grain of salt
I'm trying to spare you further psychic pain
Labour are going to be the next government: yay for you. You've waited long enough. But they will not be popular like Blair (or even early Cameron) because, events, facts, and general shiteness. They will be boring and loathed. Indeed I cannot see a single thing they can do which will be 1. affordable and 2. widely popular
If you can, do tell. I'd quite like to be cheered
Not be Boris Johnson or Liz Truss? That’s free and would meet with wild acclaim.
You’re projecting when you say “loathed”. You claim to loathe Gareth Southgate which, if true, is deranged. He’s a football manager who’s had a run of bad results after quite some success, not fucking Pol Pot. Not everyone insists on drama.
It really does feel like a 1997 moment, the momentum is surely in that direction now. People are just so fed up, it's time for a new Government to sweep the Tories away.
That is why I think it may well be a big majority.
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I must say I'm surprised and pleased to see some of our most committed Tory posters talking about giving Starmer their vote next time. I think the Tories will be in the mid-to-low 20's soon.
For a lot of what you might call natural conservative voters, what we're really saying is we're pro-business, pro-stability and pro-economic competence. We want the economy to do well, because that's how we believe the whole populace prospers.
We vote for the party with policies that will lead to stability and prosperity economically. Historically that has been the Conservative Party. But it clearly is not now.
The Conservatives do not own my vote. And they certainly lost it this week.
We are at Ratner levels of self-destruction by the Tory Party. The membership have blown their own party to pieces. Maybe they knew in their hearts that it was time for Opposition.
One thing that puzzled me at the time of the Conservative "leadership" election, and now, is that the party "membership" appears to be less-than-well audited?
At least yours truly ain't aware of any auditing, say by the national party HQ or committee or whatever?
NOT that issues re: party membership roles are exclusive to the Conservative and Unionist Party. Not hardly!
Which is of course just one reason why in the US over a century ago, Gov. "Fighting Bob" LaFolette of Wisconsin launched the Primary election, as way of choosing party nominees by open, popular vote as opposed to closed party (hack) conventions. An idea that REALLY caught on, as you may have noticed.
I read today on Twitter that the asking the Tory membership to choose the PM was like putting a Morris Dancer in charge of the Large Hadron Collider.
Carole Walker @carolewalkercw · 8m Tonight on @TimesRadio .. @DavidGauke tells me govt has “pretty well lost its reputation for economic competence”. Says there’s “a lot of disquiet amongst Conservative MPs” who are “looking at what their options are”
Start again, divested of the poisonous legacy. The Tory party is dying, the country needs a sensible centre right option and a working class focussed small c conservative option.
Is that two options or the same one in your view?
Two, i think. Electorally i see scope for a 'red wall' style party, something that can combine the Boris wallers and the Ukip 15, BXP 19 votes and the general trend away from Labour, and clearly a centre right party will have a general appeal to fiscal Tories, centrists etc
Sanibel Island is underwater. I had a nice holiday there once.
Storm came in just north of there, so really getting hammered. All the Gulf barrier islands south of Tampa will be underwater.
Re: Sanibel, had a friend that loved to go down there from WVA to go fishing in the wintertime. Had a small camper, kind with a foldup tent on top of a small trailer.
Or was it Captiva? One or the other, and both are now awash.
I think Starmer will be a very popular PM. Because he will look wonderful compared to what has gone before
Yes, he will, for about 3 weeks. Until he has to do the necessary
He hasn't got the charisma needed to be a severe doctor giving you enemas, like Thatcher. He's a tolerably dull hired consultant, with a weirdly squeaky pen, who will bore you from minute 10 and then deeply irritate you after a quarter of an hour and then you will want to murder him after 1 hour max
That's our political future
You’ve hated him since the day he was elected. So forgive me if I take your views with a giant grain of salt
I'm trying to spare you further psychic pain
Labour are going to be the next government: yay for you. You've waited long enough. But they will not be popular like Blair (or even early Cameron) because, events, facts, and general shiteness. They will be boring and loathed. Indeed I cannot see a single thing they can do which will be 1. affordable and 2. widely popular
If you can, do tell. I'd quite like to be cheered
Not be Boris Johnson or Liz Truss? That’s free and would meet with wild acclaim.
You’re projecting when you say “loathed”. You claim to loathe Gareth Southgate which, if true, is deranged. He’s a football manager who’s had a run of bad results after quite some success, not fucking Pol Pot. Not everyone insists on drama.
He is now regularly booed by fans at every game. That is actual loathing
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I've long had this thought in mind, but I don't see how they get round Freedom of Movement in return for the SM and CU
That said, Labour might inherit such a desert that can do what they like
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
Oh absolutely. In a country starved of growth, single market re-entry is worth quite a lot of GDP.
Plus, the Europeans will be looking for growth too.
Nobody gives a fuck about making sure we can still measure porridge in groat-glasses.
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I don't think there's any straightforward connection politically between the two things, and you're ignoring the fact that the EU is currently facing a major economic and geopolitical crisis of its own as the dream of being an equal partner to the US is dying.
Prediction: Truss and Kwarteng will still be running the country in 2024.
Do you think they can turn it around in 2 and a half years? I suggest it might be a tall order. The key will be slashing spending in those sectors that doesn't impact the client vote. Which basically leaves Scotland, Wales, inner city local authorities, benefits scroungers and the working poor to pay for the top down tax cuts.
Called this earlier. Sensible Tory MPs in marginal seats should defect en masse. Labour is at its strongest as a broad church of the centre left, centre and liberal centre right.
On the upside, Liz Truss might have solved the Crisis of the Dinghy People as everyone now tries to get in a tiny inflatable boat at Dover and haphazardly sail to Boulogne
I wouldn't want to be a Tory councillor in May 23 and May 24. Not easy at the best of times with a long running government, but after a likely Tory provoked crash, and living up to the stereotype of the arrogant, aloof Conservatives only caring about the rich?
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I've long had this thought in mind, but I don't see how they get round Freedom of Movement in return for the SM and CU
That said, Labour might inherit such a desert that can do what they like
I don’t think FoM will be such an issue after the two years we’re set to have. It’s quite likely that the UK will be a far less enticing prospect for economic migrants, especially at the lower end of the earnings scale, while UK citizens may well welcome the end of all the inconveniences now inflicted on them when they go to the European mainland.
I think Starmer will be a very popular PM. Because he will look wonderful compared to what has gone before
Yes, he will, for about 3 weeks. Until he has to do the necessary
He hasn't got the charisma needed to be a severe doctor giving you enemas, like Thatcher. He's a tolerably dull hired consultant, with a weirdly squeaky pen, who will bore you from minute 10 and then deeply irritate you after a quarter of an hour and then you will want to murder him after 1 hour max
That's our political future
You’ve hated him since the day he was elected. So forgive me if I take your views with a giant grain of salt
I'm trying to spare you further psychic pain
Labour are going to be the next government: yay for you. You've waited long enough. But they will not be popular like Blair (or even early Cameron) because, events, facts, and general shiteness. They will be boring and loathed. Indeed I cannot see a single thing they can do which will be 1. affordable and 2. widely popular
If you can, do tell. I'd quite like to be cheered
Not be the Tories
A pleasing feeling which will last for about, ooh, a month. As I say
British voters have got used to their governments just forking out money so they can all stay home and eat sourdough and not catch the flu. It turns out this was a terrible policy which has screwed our finances (as elsewhere in the world) and also left everyone horribly complacent and entitled
This delusional world is now colliding with reality, in shattering style. We can't afford this crap. We can't afford a tax office which takes 8 months to process 2 documents because everyone is WFH and fancies a nap
It's over. Bitter reality is kicking in. Ask the Ukrainians
Don't worry you'll be back talking about irrelevant things like aliens tomorrow
All they had to do was pick someone with their head screwed on right.
One job, and all that....
Tonight's dinner in the US, here in Asheville, is going to cost me the best part of £100. But I'm beyond caring; I'll enjoy the last week because the way things are going I won't be able to afford to come again.
If I had to live in the US, Asheville is my choice.
Called this earlier. Sensible Tory MPs in marginal seats should defect en masse. Labour is at its strongest as a broad church of the centre left, centre and liberal centre right.
They should make Labour earn the win, not hand it to them. Form a new party.
Carole Walker @carolewalkercw · 8m Tonight on @TimesRadio .. @DavidGauke tells me govt has “pretty well lost its reputation for economic competence”. Says there’s “a lot of disquiet amongst Conservative MPs” who are “looking at what their options are”
Start again, divested of the poisonous legacy. The Tory party is dying, the country needs a sensible centre right option and a working class focussed small c conservative option.
I always thought the boris johnson born to rule lot ruined the tory party
Called this earlier. Sensible Tory MPs in marginal seats should defect en masse. Labour is at its strongest as a broad church of the centre left, centre and liberal centre right.
Red Wall MPs must thinking about this because it is otherwise goodnight.
In fact, any Tory with a majority less than about 20,000 might want to be thinking very bloody hard tonight.
It is just beyond belief that the Truss crew are seriously considering not uprating benefits by inflation rate.
Just staggering.
10Ks of children already heading into poverty as things stand at moment, no matter what is coming.
There will be riots.
It’s exactly what I’d expect. These people are zealots who believe the poor are feckless and undeserving of anything but the barest minimums of state support.
I think we are going to see a further lurch of the crisis at the Conference next week.
Truss seems to be in denial, if briefings are to be believed, and certainly her outriders are blaming it on lefty markets and the woke Fed/IMF.
If she thinks “supply side” reforms will save her she is further mistaken; the market won’t believe she has the political credibility to push them through.
Called this earlier. Sensible Tory MPs in marginal seats should defect en masse. Labour is at its strongest as a broad church of the centre left, centre and liberal centre right.
The 'sensible' Tories would have quite a charge sheet: - Brought down their biggest electoral asset - Set up their preferred leadership candidate to lose in the runoff - Brought down another PM and heralded a Labour government
Carole Walker @carolewalkercw · 8m Tonight on @TimesRadio .. @DavidGauke tells me govt has “pretty well lost its reputation for economic competence”. Says there’s “a lot of disquiet amongst Conservative MPs” who are “looking at what their options are”
Start again, divested of the poisonous legacy. The Tory party is dying, the country needs a sensible centre right option and a working class focussed small c conservative option.
Is that two options or the same one in your view?
Two, i think. Electorally i see scope for a 'red wall' style party, something that can combine the Boris wallers and the Ukip 15, BXP 19 votes and the general trend away from Labour, and clearly a centre right party will have a general appeal to fiscal Tories, centrists etc
Wishful thinking on your part I'd say. Unless PR is brought in.
I think Starmer will be a very popular PM. Because he will look wonderful compared to what has gone before
Yes, he will, for about 3 weeks. Until he has to do the necessary
He hasn't got the charisma needed to be a severe doctor giving you enemas, like Thatcher. He's a tolerably dull hired consultant, with a weirdly squeaky pen, who will bore you from minute 10 and then deeply irritate you after a quarter of an hour and then you will want to murder him after 1 hour max
That's our political future
You’ve hated him since the day he was elected. So forgive me if I take your views with a giant grain of salt
I'm trying to spare you further psychic pain
Labour are going to be the next government: yay for you. You've waited long enough. But they will not be popular like Blair (or even early Cameron) because, events, facts, and general shiteness. They will be boring and loathed. Indeed I cannot see a single thing they can do which will be 1. affordable and 2. widely popular
If you can, do tell. I'd quite like to be cheered
Not be the Tories
A pleasing feeling which will last for about, ooh, a month. As I say
British voters have got used to their governments just forking out money so they can all stay home and eat sourdough and not catch the flu. It turns out this was a terrible policy which has screwed our finances (as elsewhere in the world) and also left everyone horribly complacent and entitled
This delusional world is now colliding with reality, in shattering style. We can't afford this crap. We can't afford a tax office which takes 8 months to process 2 documents because everyone is WFH and fancies a nap
It's over. Bitter reality is kicking in. Ask the Ukrainians
It's not clear if any of that would be happening if the government hadn't insisted on a big giveaway.
Carole Walker @carolewalkercw · 8m Tonight on @TimesRadio .. @DavidGauke tells me govt has “pretty well lost its reputation for economic competence”. Says there’s “a lot of disquiet amongst Conservative MPs” who are “looking at what their options are”
Start again, divested of the poisonous legacy. The Tory party is dying, the country needs a sensible centre right option and a working class focussed small c conservative option.
I always thought the boris johnson born to rule lot ruined the tory party
The old school tie twats were always a/the problem.
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I've long had this thought in mind, but I don't see how they get round Freedom of Movement in return for the SM and CU
That said, Labour might inherit such a desert that can do what they like
I don’t think FoM will be such an issue after the two years we’re set to have. It’s quite likely that the UK will be a far less enticing prospect for economic migrants, especially at the lower end of the earnings scale, while UK citizens may well welcome the end of all the inconveniences now inflicted on them when they go to the European mainland.
Hmm
I kind of hope you are right. I never had a problem with FoM, and the one thing about Btexit I deeply regretted was this: losing my right to live and work in the EU (and vice versa). I wanted something like EEA at least for a decade as we worked out our next moves
Moreover, the Tories have not clamped down on migration, they have simply opened it up to more of the world, often places where migrants are less likely to assimilate than citizens from the EU. AND the Tories have failed to stop the Channel Crossings. They are minatory yet also pathetic. Fuck the Tories
However I cannot see a way that Starmer can sell accepting FoM to the wider British electorate (who do care, unlike me) and I cannot see the EU allowing SM and CU without FoM
Comments
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1575234390497857536/photo/1
Lyons was informally advising the Truss leadership campaign this summer.
govt has “pretty well lost its reputation for economic competence”. Says there’s “a lot of disquiet amongst Conservative MPs” who are “looking at what their options are”
https://twitter.com/carolewalkercw/status/1575234868492976128
This is systemic and deep, and will take several years - maybe many years - to work through. Everywhere is fucked. China included: check their vital signs. Debt abounds
We are in for a troubled decade of penury and scrimping. And that's if the war ends relatively well for the world. Thinking otherwise is delusional
Two planes collide on the ground af Heathrow.
Too bad her actions seem to have scuppered any chance of that.
However it may not be him who leads Labour into a re election battle, the more charismatic and dynamic Wes Streeting is a good bet to be next Labour leader if having reached No 10 Starmer decides not to run again. Streeting the Macron to Starmer's Hollande or the Buttigieg to Starmer's Biden
That just leaves Minford, who of course did explain that fucking mortgage holders was part of the plan.
She will never have a better audience
Express is wobbling though: “Bank’s £65bn To Protect Pensions In Day Of Turmoil”
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1575235835552727067?s=20&t=KSWLmDtd3gMi45UbZaXLZA
@carolewalkercw
·
8m
Tonight on
@TimesRadio
..
@DavidGauke
tells me
govt has “pretty well lost its reputation for economic competence”. Says there’s “a lot of disquiet amongst Conservative MPs” who are “looking at what their options are”
Labour are going to be the next government: yay for you. You've waited long enough. But they will not be popular like Blair (or even early Cameron) because, events, facts, and general shiteness. They will be boring and loathed. Indeed I cannot see a single thing they can do which will be 1. affordable and 2. widely popular
If you can, do tell. I'd quite like to be cheered
https://twitter.com/mikebettes/status/1575180210219139080
What a first month!
I am right though, it is the quarter trillion loan for handouts that is making us such a borrowing risk, it’s not the growth budget bits on their own the markets and IMF reacted negatively too.
And I am right, the quarter trillion loan, half of which handed out to people who don’t even need it, is insane, unessary and with a regressive social impact on our society in equal measure. Do we need to commit to two and half years up front, do we need to give so much to those who don’t need it, could we blend it with other options to create a vastly cheaper vastly better targeted hybrid approach - thinking outside box is what defines leaders in moments of crisis. And could we not pay a bit of it from windfall tax - some of the company’s themselves blow warm on windfall now almost like imagining themselves becoming greedy villains of the piece, giving them some chance to make their own contribution to the crisis with windfall tax can actually be a win win.
All of that together will pacify the markets and the critics, without a single change on the growth budget or a single public service cut.
All true this. And now you know it true cause I told you so. 😇
The Tory party is dying, the country needs a sensible centre right option and a working class focussed small c conservative option.
British voters have got used to their governments just forking out money so they can all stay home and eat sourdough and not catch the flu. It turns out this was a terrible policy which has screwed our finances (as elsewhere in the world) and also left everyone horribly complacent and entitled
This delusional world is now colliding with reality, in shattering style. We can't afford this crap. We can't afford a tax office which takes 8 months to process 2 documents because everyone is WFH and fancies a nap
It's over. Bitter reality is kicking in. Ask the Ukrainians
Yet at least Corbo wasn’t in government.
I still find it preposterous that Truss is PM.
Liz Truss is PRIME MINISTER.
W
T
F
At least yours truly ain't aware of any auditing, say by the national party HQ or committee or whatever?
NOT that issues re: party membership roles are exclusive to the Conservative and Unionist Party. Not hardly!
Which is of course just one reason why in the US over a century ago, Gov. "Fighting Bob" LaFolette of Wisconsin launched the Primary election, as way of choosing party nominees by open, popular vote as opposed to closed party (hack) conventions. An idea that REALLY caught on, as you may have noticed.
By being this awful, they have made sure that Starmer and co will look good in comparison. They may be the political equivalent of a muddy puddle, but they are now a muddy puddle in the middle of a desert.
I have now doubled my money on the 'out by end of 2022' bet.
I'm staying in for the big pay out.
You’re projecting when you say “loathed”. You claim to loathe Gareth Southgate which, if true, is deranged. He’s a football manager who’s had a run of bad results after quite some success, not fucking Pol Pot. Not everyone insists on drama.
How do they know he’ll turn up sans underwear-on-head and chopsticks-up-nose?
That is why I think it may well be a big majority.
"Daniel Hannan: No, the pound isn’t crashing over a trifling batch of tax cuts. It’s because the markets are terrified of Starmer"
https://conservativehome.com/2022/09/28/daniel-hannan-no-the-pound-isnt-crashing-because-of-a-trifling-batch-of-tax-cuts/
I’d go (to still be in post in 2024);
70% Truss but not Kwarteng
60% Truss and Kwarteng
Re: Sanibel, had a friend that loved to go down there from WVA to go fishing in the wintertime. Had a small camper, kind with a foldup tent on top of a small trailer.
Or was it Captiva? One or the other, and both are now awash.
Sevastopol women are asked about mobilisation. This woman says she is worried about her son, but it's fine since she has another one. Insane place.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1575239006560059392
She slightly missed that target by by the end of the year looks a good bet.
That said, Labour might inherit such a desert that can do what they like
In a country starved of growth, single market re-entry is worth quite a lot of GDP.
Plus, the Europeans will be looking for growth too.
Nobody gives a fuck about making sure we can still measure porridge in groat-glasses.
It might work, I guess.
Just staggering.
10Ks of children already heading into poverty as things stand at moment, no matter what is coming.
There will be riots.
Really gripping I thought and a very believable (if sexed-up) depiction of cyber warfare.
It was made in that time when we assumed the Russian state was competent - which looks bizarre now.
Well, it's a theory.
Truss is as mad as a box of frogs.
Thanks Oxford.
One job, and all that....
Tonight's dinner in the US, here in Asheville, is going to cost me the best part of £100. But I'm beyond caring; I'll enjoy the last week because the way things are going I won't be able to afford to come again.
If I had to live in the US, Asheville is my choice.
In fact, any Tory with a majority less than about 20,000 might want to be thinking very bloody hard tonight.
And Truss has only just got going.
Truss seems to be in denial, if briefings are to be believed, and certainly her outriders are blaming it on lefty markets and the woke Fed/IMF.
If she thinks “supply side” reforms will save her she is further mistaken; the market won’t believe she has the political credibility to push them through.
- Brought down their biggest electoral asset
- Set up their preferred leadership candidate to lose in the runoff
- Brought down another PM and heralded a Labour government
I kind of hope you are right. I never had a problem with FoM, and the one thing about Btexit I deeply regretted was this: losing my right to live and work in the EU (and vice versa). I wanted something like EEA at least for a decade as we worked out our next moves
Moreover, the Tories have not clamped down on migration, they have simply opened it up to more of the world, often places where migrants are less likely to assimilate than citizens from the EU. AND the Tories have failed to stop the Channel Crossings. They are minatory yet also pathetic. Fuck the Tories
However I cannot see a way that Starmer can sell accepting FoM to the wider British electorate (who do care, unlike me) and I cannot see the EU allowing SM and CU without FoM
So I reckon you are hopecasting