I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.
She is in a bind, however
As has been noted, if she comes out and sticks to her fiscal guns, she might kick off the panic again. But if she comes out and reverses policies, she is basically committing career suicide, and she might still kick off more panic
What can she possibly say?
Of course she is largely to blame for her own problems, but I can see the dilemma
I can too, but she's also known to be flexible and ruthless. She has cocked up massively, I find that hard to dispute - even if people think her plans are good in theory, she has quite clearly been blindsided by the reaction to the plans, and it is causing serious damage - and she has to step up and get a grip, not stick her fingers in her ears and pretend its just those bad Labour people and people who hate growth(who?) who are complaining.
On an intellectual level I'm one of them, though on a practical level I think it falls into the same trap as communism - lovely in theory, leads to gulags in practice.
I'm starting to think this is the whole purpose behind all of this. Truss and Kwarteng might be naive but they're not stupid. The reaction to Friday was predictable, and we know LT and KK are zealots principled in their views.
Could this be a (from their perspective) selfless move, recognising they're going to lose the next general election regardless, taking a once-in-a-generation opportunity to force a small state and private take-over of many of the functions of government?
e.g. NHS - if it disappears, there are plenty of Tory donors waiting in the wings with their healthcare companies. Truss and Kwarteng get peerages, Labour salvages what it can, but fundamentally we are turned into the profit-making paradise that the Singapore-on-Thames lot have wanted since Brexit?
Labour would renationalise if the NHS was sold off, and would be guaranteed a majority.
Firefighters are battling two major storm-related fires in Key West and have responded to several more smaller fire emergencies.
The National Weather Service issued several tornado warnings Wednesday night and Thursday morning. There are no confirmed tornadoes, but the chances of tornadoes today “remain pretty high,” Rodney Wynn, a meteorologist with the Weather Service in Tampa, said, adding that they are “pretty common” during hurricanes.
Tory increased their share of vote in that one by 1%. Should steady the ship. Not a bad poll for them to be going up despite the media narrative as backdrop when is was taken.
Are you being a Tory again? Your posts today have been bizarre
I'm starting to think this is the whole purpose behind all of this. Truss and Kwarteng might be naive but they're not stupid. The reaction to Friday was predictable, and we know LT and KK are zealots principled in their views.
Could this be a (from their perspective) selfless move, recognising they're going to lose the next general election regardless, taking a once-in-a-generation opportunity to force a small state and private take-over of many of the functions of government?
e.g. NHS - if it disappears, there are plenty of Tory donors waiting in the wings with their healthcare companies. Truss and Kwarteng get peerages, Labour salvages what it can, but fundamentally we are turned into the profit-making paradise that the Singapore-on-Thames lot have wanted since Brexit?
200 Conservative MPs would send them to the Tower first
A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.
In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend
I cannot quite credit why Truss, who seemed generally competent, decided to stake everything on a high stakes gamble to please super rich people (and the rest of us down the line, maybe, if it worked).
Why did she do this? It isn't because she believed it was necessary, her own word re Boris prove she knows it wasn't, it was a choice.
No I think she really believes this. It is IEA economics. Low tax, low spend, Singapore on Thames and all that
What's more, it might have worked and it might still work one day, and something like it probably needs to be tried. But they chose the worst possible moment to try it, a time when it is basically impossible. The world is drowning in debt and lenders are even looking suspiciously at the USA, the ultimate safe haven. Then the UK pops up and says Hey we're going on a borrowing spree!
Turns out they chose to do that 140mph drive down the wrong side of the motorway during rush hour, and therefore crashed immediately
It was ideology over analysis of the present situation. A confirmation bias of swallowing every internet talking point from your side and believing it.
The reality is that tax cuts can create growth, but rarely enough growth to make up for the shortfall in receipts. So it is ultimately creation of more debt we can't afford. And now they are looking to reduce the impact by bringing in more low skilled migrants, further cementing us into a low skill, low productivity economy.
Yes. The tragedy for us is that, now, no one else will be brave enough to try these reforms for ages, and something like them (though clearly more forensic and costed) is actually needed
Instead, Labour will take over and we will get lukewarm, uber-Woke, mildly inept social democracy on top of a stagnating economy, plus no hope of sorting out migration
After that inevitably runs out of road, which it will, fuck knows. Communism or Fascism maybe
It’s too early to write the obituary on Truss the Reformer. If she survives this baptism of fire, she could yet succeed.
Perceptions of the last few days could also switch depending on how the global situation develops.
Have you seen the reports of the chief secretary now asking for govt departments to identify cuts?
She won’t survive. There is no way out of this, and she won’t recover from the damage she’s done. The pensions news today was the final nail
I don't think the pensions news is as bad as reported and the issue was resolved by the BoE intervention. There might be some regulatory lessons about liability driven investment but it's not a show-stopper for Truss's supple-side plans.
It ends in 13 working days. After which the BoE will seek to sell the gilts it has bought, back to the market.
The difference in price will be paid by the taxpayer.
There could be quite a substantial loss for the taxpayer.
@Neil of this parish told me govt couldn't go onto DC pension schemes because they were err "unaffordable". A house of cards that Kwarteng has pulled...
A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.
In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend
I cannot quite credit why Truss, who seemed generally competent, decided to stake everything on a high stakes gamble to please super rich people (and the rest of us down the line, maybe, if it worked).
Why did she do this? It isn't because she believed it was necessary, her own word re Boris prove she knows it wasn't, it was a choice.
No I think she really believes this. It is IEA economics. Low tax, low spend, Singapore on Thames and all that
What's more, it might have worked and it might still work one day, and something like it probably needs to be tried. But they chose the worst possible moment to try it, a time when it is basically impossible. The world is drowning in debt and lenders are even looking suspiciously at the USA, the ultimate safe haven. Then the UK pops up and says Hey we're going on a borrowing spree!
Turns out they chose to do that 140mph drive down the wrong side of the motorway during rush hour, and therefore crashed immediately
It was ideology over analysis of the present situation. A confirmation bias of swallowing every internet talking point from your side and believing it.
The reality is that tax cuts can create growth, but rarely enough growth to make up for the shortfall in receipts. So it is ultimately creation of more debt we can't afford. And now they are looking to reduce the impact by bringing in more low skilled migrants, further cementing us into a low skill, low productivity economy.
Yes. The tragedy for us is that, now, no one else will be brave enough to try these reforms for ages, and something like them (though clearly more forensic and costed) is actually needed
Instead, Labour will take over and we will get lukewarm, uber-Woke, mildly inept social democracy on top of a stagnating economy, plus no hope of sorting out migration
After that inevitably runs out of road, which it will, fuck knows. Communism or Fascism maybe
It’s too early to write the obituary on Truss the Reformer. If she survives this baptism of fire, she could yet succeed.
Perceptions of the last few days could also switch depending on how the global situation develops.
Have you seen the reports of the chief secretary now asking for govt departments to identify cuts?
She won’t survive. There is no way out of this, and she won’t recover from the damage she’s done. The pensions news today was the final nail
I don't think the pensions news is as bad as reported and the issue was resolved by the BoE intervention. There might be some regulatory lessons about liability driven investment but it's not a show-stopper for Truss's supple-side plans.
It ends in 13 working days. After which the BoE will seek to sell the gilts it has bought, back to the market.
The difference in price will be paid by the taxpayer.
There could be quite a substantial loss for the taxpayer.
A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.
In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend
I cannot quite credit why Truss, who seemed generally competent, decided to stake everything on a high stakes gamble to please super rich people (and the rest of us down the line, maybe, if it worked).
Why did she do this? It isn't because she believed it was necessary, her own word re Boris prove she knows it wasn't, it was a choice.
No I think she really believes this. It is IEA economics. Low tax, low spend, Singapore on Thames and all that
What's more, it might have worked and it might still work one day, and something like it probably needs to be tried. But they chose the worst possible moment to try it, a time when it is basically impossible. The world is drowning in debt and lenders are even looking suspiciously at the USA, the ultimate safe haven. Then the UK pops up and says Hey we're going on a borrowing spree!
Turns out they chose to do that 140mph drive down the wrong side of the motorway during rush hour, and therefore crashed immediately
It was ideology over analysis of the present situation. A confirmation bias of swallowing every internet talking point from your side and believing it.
The reality is that tax cuts can create growth, but rarely enough growth to make up for the shortfall in receipts. So it is ultimately creation of more debt we can't afford. And now they are looking to reduce the impact by bringing in more low skilled migrants, further cementing us into a low skill, low productivity economy.
Yes. The tragedy for us is that, now, no one else will be brave enough to try these reforms for ages, and something like them (though clearly more forensic and costed) is actually needed
Instead, Labour will take over and we will get lukewarm, uber-Woke, mildly inept social democracy on top of a stagnating economy, plus no hope of sorting out migration
After that inevitably runs out of road, which it will, fuck knows. Communism or Fascism maybe
It’s too early to write the obituary on Truss the Reformer. If she survives this baptism of fire, she could yet succeed.
Perceptions of the last few days could also switch depending on how the global situation develops.
Have you seen the reports of the chief secretary now asking for govt departments to identify cuts?
She won’t survive. There is no way out of this, and she won’t recover from the damage she’s done. The pensions news today was the final nail
I don't think the pensions news is as bad as reported and the issue was resolved by the BoE intervention. There might be some regulatory lessons about liability driven investment but it's not a show-stopper for Truss's supple-side plans.
1. if it wasn't as bad as reported then the Bof E wouldn't have had to launch its emergency rescue 2. Nobody in the industry thinks anything has been resolved
But apart from that, you're bob-on. I think Mel Stride was talking about you as well as his parliamentary colleagues when he told Channel 4 News that they were talking out of their backside.
I haven't quite caught up, but the BoE seems to be simultaneously promising higher interest rates and doing Quantitative Easing. That is clearly a contradictory policy that cannot exist for long.
Poor John Redwood looks like he's going to have a nervous breakdown. He's dry mouthed and shaking as he tells us how well the government's policy should be welcomed.
He looks fine, and clearly he made a lot of sense if your critique consists of the alleged dryness of his mouth.
I think we’ve reached peak hyperbole. All this “destroyed the economy”. I’ll buy another bottle of champagne in Finland if we hit 6% base rates in the next year. It’s not going to happen. The swap curve is all over the place due to the volatility, that is all.
And all the reasons we’ve discussed over many weeks and months are working to bring down core inflation globally. Not least that the Fed is busy precipitating a global crisis.
Now that is not to say that Truss might have torpedoed her chances at reelection by failing to properly explain her plans and then defend them after the event. But all this “boo hoo the economy has been killed”. I mean really. The wheels are still turning but when you’re at the eye of the storm you can sometimes not appreciate it. Our bond yields don’t carry much of a premium over Treasuries and in a historical context are just reverting to normal. Our currency like all others has lost massive ground to the dollar but broadly has kept pace with peers (euro, yen which needed an intervention this week by the way). Our deficit is mediocre among peers, our debt to gdp relatively good and the impact of the coming energy war likely to impact us less severely than most of Europe.
Truss is actually correct, the problem we have is such appalling growth prospects. Wheels coming off the industrial base on Europe (thanks Putin, honourable mention Schroeder and Merkel), China still in lockdown and having failed to resolve the black hole on its financial system (yuan lowest v dollar than since pre Beijing Olympics). And of course the long standing trade and productivity gap in the Uk.
But rarely can I recall normally sober posters losing their cognitive function so thoroughly.
You see that cartoon dog? Sat in the room on fire with its mug, saying "this is fine"?
That's you that is.
bond yields merely reverting to normal with all the mortgage debt about is disastrous on its own....
It is all very easy for Starmer at the moment but I fail to see exactly what he's said he's going to do that will fundamentally change the position that we are in.
If he tells us that we are all poorer thanks to Covid and Russia, and sorry, but we'll just have to put up with sh*t services and high taxes for years to come then that might be believable.
A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.
In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend
I cannot quite credit why Truss, who seemed generally competent, decided to stake everything on a high stakes gamble to please super rich people (and the rest of us down the line, maybe, if it worked).
Why did she do this? It isn't because she believed it was necessary, her own word re Boris prove she knows it wasn't, it was a choice.
No I think she really believes this. It is IEA economics. Low tax, low spend, Singapore on Thames and all that
What's more, it might have worked and it might still work one day, and something like it probably needs to be tried. But they chose the worst possible moment to try it, a time when it is basically impossible. The world is drowning in debt and lenders are even looking suspiciously at the USA, the ultimate safe haven. Then the UK pops up and says Hey we're going on a borrowing spree!
Turns out they chose to do that 140mph drive down the wrong side of the motorway during rush hour, and therefore crashed immediately
It was ideology over analysis of the present situation. A confirmation bias of swallowing every internet talking point from your side and believing it.
The reality is that tax cuts can create growth, but rarely enough growth to make up for the shortfall in receipts. So it is ultimately creation of more debt we can't afford. And now they are looking to reduce the impact by bringing in more low skilled migrants, further cementing us into a low skill, low productivity economy.
Yes. The tragedy for us is that, now, no one else will be brave enough to try these reforms for ages, and something like them (though clearly more forensic and costed) is actually needed
Instead, Labour will take over and we will get lukewarm, uber-Woke, mildly inept social democracy on top of a stagnating economy, plus no hope of sorting out migration
After that inevitably runs out of road, which it will, fuck knows. Communism or Fascism maybe
It’s too early to write the obituary on Truss the Reformer. If she survives this baptism of fire, she could yet succeed.
Perceptions of the last few days could also switch depending on how the global situation develops.
Have you seen the reports of the chief secretary now asking for govt departments to identify cuts?
She won’t survive. There is no way out of this, and she won’t recover from the damage she’s done. The pensions news today was the final nail
I don't think the pensions news is as bad as reported and the issue was resolved by the BoE intervention. There might be some regulatory lessons about liability driven investment but it's not a show-stopper for Truss's supple-side plans.
1. if it wasn't as bad as reported then the Bof E wouldn't have had to launch its emergency rescue 2. Nobody in the industry thinks anything has been resolved
But apart from that, you're bob-on. I think Mel Stride was talking about you as well as his parliamentary colleagues when he told Channel 4 News that they were talking out of their backside.
I haven't quite caught up, but the BoE seems to be simultaneously promising higher interest rates and doing Quantitative Easing. That is clearly a contradictory policy that cannot exist for long.
think qe is initially limited to 14 days...though lord knows what happens after that
Poor John Redwood looks like he's going to have a nervous breakdown. He's dry mouthed and shaking as he tells us how well the government's policy should be welcomed.
Perhaps he is becoming over excited at the thought of really sticking it to the feckless undeserving poor and anyone stupid enough to have to have an actual mortgage.
I don't want to usurp anyone's role as bedwetter-in-chief, but I have had a bad premonition.
The next few years are going to be rubbish. Some Conservative nonentity is going to have to clean the worst of the mess for two years, then Starmer takes over. Things might gradually improve, but it won't be fun.
In other countries, that's the sort of situation where you get a really nasty populist party. "Neither old party has stood up for you against those global elites. They've made you suffer and it's all a hoax..." Maybe Farage, more likely someone younger, slicker, more professional.
How does that not happen?
FPTP. It's our ultimate insurance policy against a Le Pen or Orban taking over.
Ummm: the US had FPTP, and it's probably going to get an increasingly deranged Trump for a second time.
Find that 13% lead amongst 50-64 the most significant figure.
If I'm reading the table right only 54% of LibDem voters in 2019 are still backing the party? Small sample though and doesn't feel accurate.
I'm sure it is correct: a substantial minority of LibDem votes are borrowed, because they've convinced the electorate that they are the only way to beat Con/Lab in this constituency.
Tory increased their share of vote in that one by 1%. Should steady the ship. Not a bad poll for them to be going up despite the media narrative as backdrop when is was taken.
And 14% thinking the budget is a good idea is really quite surprisingly high too, isn't it?
Poor John Redwood looks like he's going to have a nervous breakdown. He's dry mouthed and shaking as he tells us how well the government's policy should be welcomed.
Perhaps he is becoming over excited at the thought of really sticking it to the feckless undeserving poor and anyone stupid enough to have to have an actual mortgage.
No, he was ashen faced with fear in his eyes.
He's an excellent performer, it's good to see him in the media more, and clearly the right people are annoyed by it.
So no turning back, Lady's not for turning, problems are "global", seems to be the official line tonight. I don't think this is going to end well, either for the economy as a whole, anything left of the reasonably functioning public realm, or much more likely both spheres.
Find that 13% lead amongst 50-64 the most significant figure.
If I'm reading the table right only 54% of LibDem voters in 2019 are still backing the party? Small sample though and doesn't feel accurate.
I'm sure it is correct: a substantial minority of LibDem votes are borrowed, because they've convinced the electorate that they are the only way to beat Con/Lab in this constituency.
I think too there were quite a few anti-Brexit voters in that unusual election, now reverting to other parties from Labour to Greens.
I mean they are but weve done an effective catalyst on problems here. The contagion is everywhere and isnt going away soon. Printed money has destroyed us
I don't want to usurp anyone's role as bedwetter-in-chief, but I have had a bad premonition.
The next few years are going to be rubbish. Some Conservative nonentity is going to have to clean the worst of the mess for two years, then Starmer takes over. Things might gradually improve, but it won't be fun.
In other countries, that's the sort of situation where you get a really nasty populist party. "Neither old party has stood up for you against those global elites. They've made you suffer and it's all a hoax..." Maybe Farage, more likely someone younger, slicker, more professional.
How does that not happen?
FPTP. It's our ultimate insurance policy against a Le Pen or Orban taking over.
Ummm: the US had FPTP, and it's probably going to get an increasingly deranged Trump for a second time.
If I was a betting man I'd probably take you on over that.
I am astonished. Just received the following short email from my mother:
"Come back Boris, all is forgiven?"
We stayed up together to watch Portillo lose. She's never had a good word to say about Boris. Can any disgraced former Prime Minister have had their reputation enhanced so quickly by their successor?
Tory increased their share of vote in that one by 1%. Should steady the ship. Not a bad poll for them to be going up despite the media narrative as backdrop when is was taken.
Are you being a Tory again? Your posts today have been bizarre
I take polling posts seriously, I wouldn’t say anything deliberately untrue, though I could make a mistake. double check my checking if you like.
Maybe a touch tongue in cheek, as that last poll I think was January. Though, on the other hand, it shows the firm does double digit leads and sub 30 Tories so are not a Kantor or Techne.
My other posts today are not bizarre, they are actually true, cutting through the hyperbole on here today if you listen to what I am saying.
What I am saying is really straightforward. The growth budget, with a couple of little ideological flourishes which have back fired, and the quarter of a trillion borrowing for Bill Freezing are actually two very different fiscal events, the chancellor has unwisely blurred together. The markets are not, IMF mostly not, attacking the growth budget - the growth budget isn’t a huge financial risk problem on its own. It is actually UK putting it out there we intend to borrow nearly a quarter of a trillion to freeze our consumers energy bills for a few years the markets are saying no to - the markets are saying no, we assess you are not in a great position to manage that size of largesse right now.
So the answer is really straightforward as well, and it doesn’t need cuts or tax rises (though interest rates are touch low maybe, and a tax contribution such as a windfall element would sweeten the markets) we just don’t borrow £200B and give half of it to people who don’t even need a hand out. We adjust the Bill Freezing plan.
Absolutely astonishing that the Conservative Party with a majority of 80 concluded that their Johnson related collapse in support from the public was policy related rather than primarly a problem focussed on the man himself and his style of Govt. Nobody was asking for what they’ve given us.
I don't think the "Conservative Party" necessarily did think that just the current leadership who appear to be rather mad.
I think both Penny and Kemi could have beaten Liz if they'd been in the final two ballot and in which case we'd now have a very different government and financial statement.
But thems the breaks...
Kemi believes the same libertarian nonsense economics that got us here today.
Tory increased their share of vote in that one by 1%. Should steady the ship. Not a bad poll for them to be going up despite the media narrative as backdrop when is was taken.
Are you being a Tory again? Your posts today have been bizarre
I take polling posts seriously, I wouldn’t say anything deliberately untrue, though I could make a mistake. double check my checking if you like.
Maybe a touch tongue in cheek, as that last poll I think was January. Though, on the other hand, it shows the firm does double digit leads and sub 30 Tories so are not a Kantor or Techne.
My other posts today are not bizarre, they are actually true, cutting through the hyperbole on here today if you listen to what I am saying.
What I am saying is really straightforward. The growth budget, with a couple of little ideological flourishes which have back fired, and the quarter of a trillion borrowing for Bill Freezing are actually two very different fiscal events, the chancellor has unwisely blurred together. The markets are not, IMF mostly not, attacking the growth budget - the growth budget isn’t a huge financial risk problem on its own. It is actually UK putting it out there we intend to borrow nearly a quarter of a trillion to freeze our consumers energy bills for a few years the markets are saying no to - the markets are saying no, we assess you are not in a great position to manage that size of largesse right now.
Where will the growth come from though? That has yet to be explained. It has merely been asserted. Consumer confidence and disposable income on the floor, high inflation, borrowing and a weak currency is not a "growth Budget" in my book.
I don't want to usurp anyone's role as bedwetter-in-chief, but I have had a bad premonition.
The next few years are going to be rubbish. Some Conservative nonentity is going to have to clean the worst of the mess for two years, then Starmer takes over. Things might gradually improve, but it won't be fun.
In other countries, that's the sort of situation where you get a really nasty populist party. "Neither old party has stood up for you against those global elites. They've made you suffer and it's all a hoax..." Maybe Farage, more likely someone younger, slicker, more professional.
How does that not happen?
FPTP. It's our ultimate insurance policy against a Le Pen or Orban taking over.
Ummm: the US had FPTP, and it's probably going to get an increasingly deranged Trump for a second time.
Does it matter ? Economically I mean. You have gas and a seemingly endlessly strong currency. I'd trade the UK's situation for the US every day and twice on Sundays.
Tory increased their share of vote in that one by 1%. Should steady the ship. Not a bad poll for them to be going up despite the media narrative as backdrop when is was taken.
Are you being a Tory again? Your posts today have been bizarre
I take polling posts seriously, I wouldn’t say anything deliberately untrue, though I could make a mistake. double check my checking if you like.
Maybe a touch tongue in cheek, as that last poll I think was January. Though, on the other hand, it shows the firm does double digit leads and sub 30 Tories so are not a Kantor or Techne.
My other posts today are not bizarre, they are actually true, cutting through the hyperbole on here today if you listen to what I am saying.
What I am saying is really straightforward. The growth budget, with a couple of little ideological flourishes which have back fired, and the quarter of a trillion borrowing for Bill Freezing are actually two very different fiscal events, the chancellor has unwisely blurred together. The markets are not, IMF mostly not, attacking the growth budget - the growth budget isn’t a huge financial risk problem on its own. It is actually UK putting it out there we intend to borrow nearly a quarter of a trillion to freeze our consumers energy bills for a few years the markets are saying no to - the markets are saying no, we assess you are not in a great position to manage that size of largesse right now.
Where will the growth come from though? That has yet to be explained. It has merely been asserted.
The reality train left the station back in 2016. We just have to believe hard enough, and it will happen!
Find that 13% lead amongst 50-64 the most significant figure.
If I'm reading the table right only 54% of LibDem voters in 2019 are still backing the party? Small sample though and doesn't feel accurate.
I'm sure it is correct: a substantial minority of LibDem votes are borrowed, because they've convinced the electorate that they are the only way to beat Con/Lab in this constituency.
Also many core LibDem supporters will vote Labour tactically to beat the Tories. The national LibDem share is a bit misleading as it is very "lumpy".
@PickardJE former Chief Adviser at the Bank of England, Charles Goodhart, tells Times Radio: "You can say goodbye to growth over the period from now until the general election…”
I am astonished. Just received the following short email from my mother:
"Come back Boris, all is forgiven?"
We stayed up together to watch Portillo lose. She's never had a good word to say about Boris. Can any disgraced former Prime Minister have had their reputation enhanced so quickly by their successor?
The only moral course of action now is a clean-up job under not-Truss, perhaps looking at a modest wealth tax as part of an overall package that returns to fiscal sanity.
Time to slay some sacred cows, to wit the triple lock.
Tory increased their share of vote in that one by 1%. Should steady the ship. Not a bad poll for them to be going up despite the media narrative as backdrop when is was taken.
Are you being a Tory again? Your posts today have been bizarre
I take polling posts seriously, I wouldn’t say anything deliberately untrue, though I could make a mistake. double check my checking if you like.
Maybe a touch tongue in cheek, as that last poll I think was January. Though, on the other hand, it shows the firm does double digit leads and sub 30 Tories so are not a Kantor or Techne.
My other posts today are not bizarre, they are actually true, cutting through the hyperbole on here today if you listen to what I am saying.
What I am saying is really straightforward. The growth budget, with a couple of little ideological flourishes which have back fired, and the quarter of a trillion borrowing for Bill Freezing are actually two very different fiscal events, the chancellor has unwisely blurred together. The markets are not, IMF mostly not, attacking the growth budget - the growth budget isn’t a huge financial risk problem on its own. It is actually UK putting it out there we intend to borrow nearly a quarter of a trillion to freeze our consumers energy bills for a few years the markets are saying no to - the markets are saying no, we assess you are not in a great position to manage that size of largesse right now.
The government needs to decide if they want to borrow to support gas prices or not. Doing so and cutting taxes at the same time is a no no.
And I find it very odd that you seem to KNOW what the market is thinking. Particularly since the market did not react like this to the gas price announcement. It was a response to the giveaway statement. So the government can withdraw the energy support if the tax cuts are non-negotiable and the public can decide if that was a sensible choice.
Tory increased their share of vote in that one by 1%. Should steady the ship. Not a bad poll for them to be going up despite the media narrative as backdrop when is was taken.
Are you being a Tory again? Your posts today have been bizarre
I take polling posts seriously, I wouldn’t say anything deliberately untrue, though I could make a mistake. double check my checking if you like.
Maybe a touch tongue in cheek, as that last poll I think was January. Though, on the other hand, it shows the firm does double digit leads and sub 30 Tories so are not a Kantor or Techne.
My other posts today are not bizarre, they are actually true, cutting through the hyperbole on here today if you listen to what I am saying.
What I am saying is really straightforward. The growth budget, with a couple of little ideological flourishes which have back fired, and the quarter of a trillion borrowing for Bill Freezing are actually two very different fiscal events, the chancellor has unwisely blurred together. The markets are not, IMF mostly not, attacking the growth budget - the growth budget isn’t a huge financial risk problem on its own. It is actually UK putting it out there we intend to borrow nearly a quarter of a trillion to freeze our consumers energy bills for a few years the markets are saying no to - the markets are saying no, we assess you are not in a great position to manage that size of largesse right now.
Where will the growth come from though? That has yet to be explained. It has merely been asserted.
The reality train left the station back in 2016. We just have to believe hard enough, and it will happen!
Personally I blame the “openly gay” Supreme Court Justices, people with FBPE on their Twitter profiles, and the crypto-Remainer Sunak Rishi.
Tory increased their share of vote in that one by 1%. Should steady the ship. Not a bad poll for them to be going up despite the media narrative as backdrop when is was taken.
Are you being a Tory again? Your posts today have been bizarre
I take polling posts seriously, I wouldn’t say anything deliberately untrue, though I could make a mistake. double check my checking if you like.
Maybe a touch tongue in cheek, as that last poll I think was January. Though, on the other hand, it shows the firm does double digit leads and sub 30 Tories so are not a Kantor or Techne.
My other posts today are not bizarre, they are actually true, cutting through the hyperbole on here today if you listen to what I am saying.
What I am saying is really straightforward. The growth budget, with a couple of little ideological flourishes which have back fired, and the quarter of a trillion borrowing for Bill Freezing are actually two very different fiscal events, the chancellor has unwisely blurred together. The markets are not, IMF mostly not, attacking the growth budget - the growth budget isn’t a huge financial risk problem on its own. It is actually UK putting it out there we intend to borrow nearly a quarter of a trillion to freeze our consumers energy bills for a few years the markets are saying no to - the markets are saying no, we assess you are not in a great position to manage that size of largesse right now.
So the answer is really straightforward as well, and it doesn’t need cuts or tax rises (though interest rates are touch low maybe, and a tax contribution such as a windfall element would sweeten the markets) we just don’t borrow £200B and give half of it to people who don’t even need a hand out. We adjust the Bill Freezing plan.
Simples.
Any questions?
That's completely arse about face. The Chancellor promised growth with a range of measures that won't deliver growth. The energy stuff has been known about for weeks.
⚡️Meduza: Kremlin to hold back on illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories.
According to independent Russian media outlet Meduza, the annexation will be postponed as it now won't have the desired "PR effect" on the Russian population that is dissatisfied with mobilization. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1575197790401007616
Tory increased their share of vote in that one by 1%. Should steady the ship. Not a bad poll for them to be going up despite the media narrative as backdrop when is was taken.
Are you being a Tory again? Your posts today have been bizarre
I take polling posts seriously, I wouldn’t say anything deliberately untrue, though I could make a mistake. double check my checking if you like.
Maybe a touch tongue in cheek, as that last poll I think was January. Though, on the other hand, it shows the firm does double digit leads and sub 30 Tories so are not a Kantor or Techne.
My other posts today are not bizarre, they are actually true, cutting through the hyperbole on here today if you listen to what I am saying.
What I am saying is really straightforward. The growth budget, with a couple of little ideological flourishes which have back fired, and the quarter of a trillion borrowing for Bill Freezing are actually two very different fiscal events, the chancellor has unwisely blurred together. The markets are not, IMF mostly not, attacking the growth budget - the growth budget isn’t a huge financial risk problem on its own. It is actually UK putting it out there we intend to borrow nearly a quarter of a trillion to freeze our consumers energy bills for a few years the markets are saying no to - the markets are saying no, we assess you are not in a great position to manage that size of largesse right now.
Where will the growth come from though? That has yet to be explained. It has merely been asserted.
The reality train left the station back in 2016. We just have to believe hard enough, and it will happen!
Personally I blame the “openly gay” Supreme Court Justices, people with FBPE on their Twitter profiles, and the crypto-Remainer Sunak Rishi.
No folk who like to give statues swimming lessons?
Poor John Redwood looks like he's going to have a nervous breakdown. He's dry mouthed and shaking as he tells us how well the government's policy should be welcomed.
Perhaps he is becoming over excited at the thought of really sticking it to the feckless undeserving poor and anyone stupid enough to have to have an actual mortgage.
No, he was ashen faced with fear in his eyes.
He's an excellent performer, it's good to see him in the media more, and clearly the right people are annoyed by it.
Another post from the resident disc jockey at Broadmoor Radio.
It is all very easy for Starmer at the moment but I fail to see exactly what he's said he's going to do that will fundamentally change the position that we are in.
If he tells us that we are all poorer thanks to Covid and Russia, and sorry, but we'll just have to put up with sh*t services and high taxes for years to come then that might be believable.
All politics is relative and someone has to be one who doesn't lose at a GE. At the moment that could be SKS.
To be fair to him his claims have not been been massively over excessive. As the time gets nearer he will struggle, as all Labour campaigns have since 'Labour's Tax Bombshell' (1992) to be seen as honest without pledging to raise taxes on you as opposed to someone else. Or will be indicate that taxes must rise and risk doing a Kinnock?
Such is, and will be, the situation over tax, spend, borrow, debt, deficit, mortgages, housing, NHS, social care....etc that all we can ask for is a government that is sane, caring, fairly honest, moderate, and has got a costed plan.
The current position is, as we know, dire in each respect. Labour's problem is that there is no centrist Labour style cause not wanting both massively increased pay, massively better performance and massive infrastructure investment.
Poor John Redwood looks like he's going to have a nervous breakdown. He's dry mouthed and shaking as he tells us how well the government's policy should be welcomed.
Perhaps he is becoming over excited at the thought of really sticking it to the feckless undeserving poor and anyone stupid enough to have to have an actual mortgage.
No, he was ashen faced with fear in his eyes.
He's an excellent performer, it's good to see him in the media more, and clearly the right people are annoyed by it.
Another post from the resident disc jockey at Broadmoor Radio.
Russianguy1983 is literally the worst poster on this site.
It doesn't matter what you say, he'll say his agenda piece and then put you on ignore.
I don't want to usurp anyone's role as bedwetter-in-chief, but I have had a bad premonition.
The next few years are going to be rubbish. Some Conservative nonentity is going to have to clean the worst of the mess for two years, then Starmer takes over. Things might gradually improve, but it won't be fun.
In other countries, that's the sort of situation where you get a really nasty populist party. "Neither old party has stood up for you against those global elites. They've made you suffer and it's all a hoax..." Maybe Farage, more likely someone younger, slicker, more professional.
How does that not happen?
FPTP. It's our ultimate insurance policy against a Le Pen or Orban taking over.
Ummm: the US had FPTP, and it's probably going to get an increasingly deranged Trump for a second time.
But distorted by the "Electoral Kindergarten" gerrymander.
I don't want to usurp anyone's role as bedwetter-in-chief, but I have had a bad premonition.
The next few years are going to be rubbish. Some Conservative nonentity is going to have to clean the worst of the mess for two years, then Starmer takes over. Things might gradually improve, but it won't be fun.
In other countries, that's the sort of situation where you get a really nasty populist party. "Neither old party has stood up for you against those global elites. They've made you suffer and it's all a hoax..." Maybe Farage, more likely someone younger, slicker, more professional.
How does that not happen?
FPTP. It's our ultimate insurance policy against a Le Pen or Orban taking over.
Ummm: the US had FPTP, and it's probably going to get an increasingly deranged Trump for a second time.
But distorted by the "Electoral Kindergarten" gerrymander.
Yes, FPTP with a tiny number of constituencies which are all weighted in such a way as to make every election a total knife edge in the middle in a handful of swing states. As implementations of FPTP go it's...not up there.
A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.
In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend
I cannot quite credit why Truss, who seemed generally competent, decided to stake everything on a high stakes gamble to please super rich people (and the rest of us down the line, maybe, if it worked).
Why did she do this? It isn't because she believed it was necessary, her own word re Boris prove she knows it wasn't, it was a choice.
No I think she really believes this. It is IEA economics. Low tax, low spend, Singapore on Thames and all that
What's more, it might have worked and it might still work one day, and something like it probably needs to be tried. But they chose the worst possible moment to try it, a time when it is basically impossible. The world is drowning in debt and lenders are even looking suspiciously at the USA, the ultimate safe haven. Then the UK pops up and says Hey we're going on a borrowing spree!
Turns out they chose to do that 140mph drive down the wrong side of the motorway during rush hour, and therefore crashed immediately
It was ideology over analysis of the present situation. A confirmation bias of swallowing every internet talking point from your side and believing it.
The reality is that tax cuts can create growth, but rarely enough growth to make up for the shortfall in receipts. So it is ultimately creation of more debt we can't afford. And now they are looking to reduce the impact by bringing in more low skilled migrants, further cementing us into a low skill, low productivity economy.
Yes. The tragedy for us is that, now, no one else will be brave enough to try these reforms for ages, and something like them (though clearly more forensic and costed) is actually needed
Instead, Labour will take over and we will get lukewarm, uber-Woke, mildly inept social democracy on top of a stagnating economy, plus no hope of sorting out migration
After that inevitably runs out of road, which it will, fuck knows. Communism or Fascism maybe
It’s too early to write the obituary on Truss the Reformer. If she survives this baptism of fire, she could yet succeed.
Perceptions of the last few days could also switch depending on how the global situation develops.
Have you seen the reports of the chief secretary now asking for govt departments to identify cuts?
She won’t survive. There is no way out of this, and she won’t recover from the damage she’s done. The pensions news today was the final nail
I don't think the pensions news is as bad as reported and the issue was resolved by the BoE intervention. There might be some regulatory lessons about liability driven investment but it's not a show-stopper for Truss's supple-side plans.
It ends in 13 working days. After which the BoE will seek to sell the gilts it has bought, back to the market.
The difference in price will be paid by the taxpayer.
There could be quite a substantial loss for the taxpayer.
“If there was no intervention today, gilt yields could have gone up to 7-8 per cent from 4.5 per cent this morning and in that situation around 90 per cent of UK pension funds would have run out of collateral,” said Kerrin Rosenberg, Cardano Investment chief executive. “They would have been wiped out.”
I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.
She is in a bind, however
As has been noted, if she comes out and sticks to her fiscal guns, she might kick off the panic again. But if she comes out and reverses policies, she is basically committing career suicide, and she might still kick off more panic
What can she possibly say?
In her position the only sensible thing would be to go to the country and pray for a Labour victory.
Essentially what Arthur Balfour did in 1905-06. He & his ministers resigned and allowed Liberals to form new government, in expectation (allegedly) that Libs would loose subsequent general election.
Result was Liberal landslide - and Balfour booted out by electors from his own seat.
Actually, he was hoping the Liberal party would split and be unable to form a government, meaning he could then paint the Liberals as untrustworthy and divided.
It very nearly came off too, in the form of the Relugas Compact designed by Haldane to force Campbell-Bannerman out of the leadership.
@BBCTees 🚨 Prime Minister Liz Truss will be speaking live on our breakfast show tomorrow morning!
🤔 Do you have a question you'd like us to ask to her?
What the actual fuck? The day after this mess she's going onto Alan Partridge radio?
It’s BBC Radio Tees.
Not North Norfolk Digital.
Similar audience. I would be baffled as to why BBC Tees and not national. Or a major area. But I know Kwarteng is tied to her. And Cameron Brown is his SPAD. Who worked for Houchen and Wharton. And tees Tories absolutely have local hacks in their pockets...
Truss is going to square her circle with huge spending cuts, focussed on the red wall.
Turns out, in 2019 they voted for Thatcher mk2.
If I were a Tory MP in the red wall, I’d be upping my security….
Love to know what she can cut - beyond projects that have not started yet....
There is a 14% cut that can be made on the public sector wage bill just waiting for a start
You will have to spell that out to people who can’t read your mind…
Make all public sector pensions DC going forward(the db part they already paid remains db). Then cap public sector employer contributions at 6% so down from the current average of 20% and now inline with most private sector employer contributions. Public sector pensions have to become DC sooner or later as DB is unaffordable so may as well do it now when we need to make savings
Can we get odds on the Lib Dems out-polling the Tories?
That's one of a number of markets the imaginative Shadsy is likely to put up.
Personally I wouldn't rule out the LDs passing the Tories at some point before the GE.
Hi Peter, hope you're keeping well mate.
What is Shadsy?
matthew shaddick, head of me losing all my money at Smarkets politics.
Ah and so I Twitter him and he'll give me odds on Lib Dems outpolling the Tories?
How are you mate?
I'm good thanks, how are you?
Just pissed off that I have lost about £200 in Boris is going bets this year, because they were all Gone by the end of the month bets. More patient and less greedy, is the way forward.
The fall in prices has created a lot of forced sellers, as pension funds bought government bonds using leverage. That needs to be collateralised daily and the speed and size of the moves (completely unprecedented) means many are struggling to sell other assets in time. That forced selling pushes prices down further and exacerbates the problem.
This is spiraling out of control and will only get worse without intervention. Absent that, this could end up massively increasingly the deficit of UK DB Pension Funds and removing what buyers the government already had for its debt"
Can we get odds on the Lib Dems out-polling the Tories?
That's one of a number of markets the imaginative Shadsy is likely to put up.
Personally I wouldn't rule out the LDs passing the Tories at some point before the GE.
Hi Peter, hope you're keeping well mate.
What is Shadsy?
matthew shaddick, head of me losing all my money at Smarkets politics.
Ah and so I Twitter him and he'll give me odds on Lib Dems outpolling the Tories?
How are you mate?
I'm good thanks, how are you?
Just pissed off that I have lost about £200 in Boris is going bets this year, because they were all Gone by the end of the month bets. More patient and less greedy, is the way forward.
Fine thanks, it's much better on here tonight. Perhaps I should go out every Tuesday.
800k Floridians currently without power. In southwest FL, virtually no one has power unless they've got a generator that's (still) above water.
Forecasters are forecasting that > storm surge may last up to six hours in some areas > Ian will still be hurricane strength going through central Florida including Orlando > rainfall already heavy across south Florida and will get worse before it gets better > storm surge expected on ATLANTIC coast around Jacksonville & St Augustine in northeast FL
Can we get odds on the Lib Dems out-polling the Tories?
That's one of a number of markets the imaginative Shadsy is likely to put up.
Personally I wouldn't rule out the LDs passing the Tories at some point before the GE.
Hi Peter, hope you're keeping well mate.
What is Shadsy?
matthew shaddick, head of me losing all my money at Smarkets politics.
Ah and so I Twitter him and he'll give me odds on Lib Dems outpolling the Tories?
How are you mate?
I'm good thanks, how are you?
Just pissed off that I have lost about £200 in Boris is going bets this year, because they were all Gone by the end of the month bets. More patient and less greedy, is the way forward.
Perhaps you'll get lucky with some Boris is coming back bets now?
That by election win in Sherbourne feels a looooooong time ago! The Tory vote share in tomorrows will be interesting! How many will vote blue in the teeth of the gale??
Truss is going to square her circle with huge spending cuts, focussed on the red wall.
Turns out, in 2019 they voted for Thatcher mk2.
If I were a Tory MP in the red wall, I’d be upping my security….
Love to know what she can cut - beyond projects that have not started yet....
There is a 14% cut that can be made on the public sector wage bill just waiting for a start
You will have to spell that out to people who can’t read your mind…
Make all public sector pensions DC going forward(the db part they already paid remains db). Then cap public sector employer contributions at 6% so down from the current average of 20% and now inline with most private sector employer contributions. Public sector pensions have to become DC sooner or later as DB is unaffordable so may as well do it now when we need to make savings
I've no objection principle (former public sector worker) but you should recognise that devaluing the pension offer will likely require pay increases which would eat into savings. When I was public sector, the pensions made the positions sticky, people whined but recognised the pension beat what they'd get elsewhere. Take that away and you'll lose people who have options. Pension made me think twice, but I couldn't face a whole lifetime of boredom.
@BBCTees 🚨 Prime Minister Liz Truss will be speaking live on our breakfast show tomorrow morning!
🤔 Do you have a question you'd like us to ask to her?
What the actual fuck? The day after this mess she's going onto Alan Partridge radio?
It’s BBC Radio Tees.
Not North Norfolk Digital.
Similar audience. I would be baffled as to why BBC Tees and not national. Or a major area. But I know Kwarteng is tied to her. And Cameron Brown is his SPAD. Who worked for Houchen and Wharton. And tees Tories absolutely have local hacks in their pockets...
Local journalists can be brutal though, and often underestimated by national politicians. So this is risky. If she gets a mauling on Tees Radio (and let’s face it that’s likely) it could be a much retweeted PR catastrophe much more than being mauled on R4 where they can just dismiss it as BBC London remoaner lefties.
A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.
In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend
I cannot quite credit why Truss, who seemed generally competent, decided to stake everything on a high stakes gamble to please super rich people (and the rest of us down the line, maybe, if it worked).
Why did she do this? It isn't because she believed it was necessary, her own word re Boris prove she knows it wasn't, it was a choice.
No I think she really believes this. It is IEA economics. Low tax, low spend, Singapore on Thames and all that
What's more, it might have worked and it might still work one day, and something like it probably needs to be tried. But they chose the worst possible moment to try it, a time when it is basically impossible. The world is drowning in debt and lenders are even looking suspiciously at the USA, the ultimate safe haven. Then the UK pops up and says Hey we're going on a borrowing spree!
Turns out they chose to do that 140mph drive down the wrong side of the motorway during rush hour, and therefore crashed immediately
It was ideology over analysis of the present situation. A confirmation bias of swallowing every internet talking point from your side and believing it.
The reality is that tax cuts can create growth, but rarely enough growth to make up for the shortfall in receipts. So it is ultimately creation of more debt we can't afford. And now they are looking to reduce the impact by bringing in more low skilled migrants, further cementing us into a low skill, low productivity economy.
Yes. The tragedy for us is that, now, no one else will be brave enough to try these reforms for ages, and something like them (though clearly more forensic and costed) is actually needed
Instead, Labour will take over and we will get lukewarm, uber-Woke, mildly inept social democracy on top of a stagnating economy, plus no hope of sorting out migration
After that inevitably runs out of road, which it will, fuck knows. Communism or Fascism maybe
It’s too early to write the obituary on Truss the Reformer. If she survives this baptism of fire, she could yet succeed.
Perceptions of the last few days could also switch depending on how the global situation develops.
Have you seen the reports of the chief secretary now asking for govt departments to identify cuts?
She won’t survive. There is no way out of this, and she won’t recover from the damage she’s done. The pensions news today was the final nail
I don't think the pensions news is as bad as reported and the issue was resolved by the BoE intervention. There might be some regulatory lessons about liability driven investment but it's not a show-stopper for Truss's supple-side plans.
It ends in 13 working days. After which the BoE will seek to sell the gilts it has bought, back to the market.
The difference in price will be paid by the taxpayer.
There could be quite a substantial loss for the taxpayer.
“If there was no intervention today, gilt yields could have gone up to 7-8 per cent from 4.5 per cent this morning and in that situation around 90 per cent of UK pension funds would have run out of collateral,” said Kerrin Rosenberg, Cardano Investment chief executive. “They would have been wiped out.”
——
And if they have to sell them at 7-8%…?
… this could cost the taxpayer billions. To bail out private DB schemes.
I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.
She is in a bind, however
As has been noted, if she comes out and sticks to her fiscal guns, she might kick off the panic again. But if she comes out and reverses policies, she is basically committing career suicide, and she might still kick off more panic
What can she possibly say?
In her position the only sensible thing would be to go to the country and pray for a Labour victory.
Essentially what Arthur Balfour did in 1905-06. He & his ministers resigned and allowed Liberals to form new government, in expectation (allegedly) that Libs would loose subsequent general election.
Result was Liberal landslide - and Balfour booted out by electors from his own seat.
Actually, he was hoping the Liberal party would split and be unable to form a government, meaning he could then paint the Liberals as untrustworthy and divided.
It very nearly came off too, in the form of the Relugas Compact designed by Haldane to force Campbell-Bannerman out of the leadership.
Re: your para 1, that's the usual explanation, interpretation. But given the fact that Conservative & Liberal Unionist alliance was itself sharply divided over Tariff Reform, still think that Balfour (a smart cookie) was pretty sure that he'd loose the 1906 election.
Re: para 2, the Regulas Compact was a truly bullshit bluff, predicated on the laughable notion that none of the Compacters would accept office under Campbell-Bannerman. Even Mrs. C-B knew THAT was a crock and a half, as so proved.
Truss is going to square her circle with huge spending cuts, focussed on the red wall.
Turns out, in 2019 they voted for Thatcher mk2.
If I were a Tory MP in the red wall, I’d be upping my security….
Love to know what she can cut - beyond projects that have not started yet....
There is a 14% cut that can be made on the public sector wage bill just waiting for a start
You will have to spell that out to people who can’t read your mind…
Make all public sector pensions DC going forward(the db part they already paid remains db). Then cap public sector employer contributions at 6% so down from the current average of 20% and now inline with most private sector employer contributions. Public sector pensions have to become DC sooner or later as DB is unaffordable so may as well do it now when we need to make savings
Staff retention is already a problem in the public sector.
@PickardJE former Chief Adviser at the Bank of England, Charles Goodhart, tells Times Radio: "You can say goodbye to growth over the period from now until the general election…”
@BBCTees 🚨 Prime Minister Liz Truss will be speaking live on our breakfast show tomorrow morning!
🤔 Do you have a question you'd like us to ask to her?
What the actual fuck? The day after this mess she's going onto Alan Partridge radio?
It’s BBC Radio Tees.
Not North Norfolk Digital.
Similar audience. I would be baffled as to why BBC Tees and not national. Or a major area. But I know Kwarteng is tied to her. And Cameron Brown is his SPAD. Who worked for Houchen and Wharton. And tees Tories absolutely have local hacks in their pockets...
She’s doing BBC Radio Nottingham too. Looks,like she’s doing the round of the local stations.
Truss is going to square her circle with huge spending cuts, focussed on the red wall.
Turns out, in 2019 they voted for Thatcher mk2.
If I were a Tory MP in the red wall, I’d be upping my security….
Love to know what she can cut - beyond projects that have not started yet....
There is a 14% cut that can be made on the public sector wage bill just waiting for a start
You will have to spell that out to people who can’t read your mind…
Make all public sector pensions DC going forward(the db part they already paid remains db). Then cap public sector employer contributions at 6% so down from the current average of 20% and now inline with most private sector employer contributions. Public sector pensions have to become DC sooner or later as DB is unaffordable so may as well do it now when we need to make savings
I've no objection principle (former public sector worker) but you should recognise that devaluing the pension offer will likely require pay increases which would eat into savings. When I was public sector, the pensions made the positions sticky, people whined but recognised the pension beat what they'd get elsewhere. Take that away and you'll lose people who have options. Pension made me think twice, but I couldn't face a whole lifetime of boredom.
Yes there would be downsides as you describe, however starting from the base we are going to have to change them to dc at some point as we have something like 2trillion in unfunded pension liabilities most of which is down to public sector pensions it is something that has to be tackled sooner or later so when we need to cut government spending that seems a good time.
It is doubly so as DB schemes are pretty much dead in the private sector since the pension raid and we are going to find in 20 years or so we will have a huge income divide between public sector pensioners and private sector pensioners which is going to breed a lot of resentment from people who's tax is funding pensions they will never be able to afford themselves.
Poor John Redwood looks like he's going to have a nervous breakdown. He's dry mouthed and shaking as he tells us how well the government's policy should be welcomed.
Well it hasn't been John, so what else have you got?
I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.
She is in a bind, however
As has been noted, if she comes out and sticks to her fiscal guns, she might kick off the panic again. But if she comes out and reverses policies, she is basically committing career suicide, and she might still kick off more panic
What can she possibly say?
Of course she is largely to blame for her own problems, but I can see the dilemma
I can too, but she's also known to be flexible and ruthless. She has cocked up massively, I find that hard to dispute - even if people think her plans are good in theory, she has quite clearly been blindsided by the reaction to the plans, and it is causing serious damage - and she has to step up and get a grip, not stick her fingers in her ears and pretend its just those bad Labour people and people who hate growth(who?) who are complaining.
On an intellectual level I'm one of them, though on a practical level I think it falls into the same trap as communism - lovely in theory, leads to gulags in practice.
I stand corrected then, though I doubt their movement has much growth either.
⚡️Meduza: Kremlin to hold back on illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories.
According to independent Russian media outlet Meduza, the annexation will be postponed as it now won't have the desired "PR effect" on the Russian population that is dissatisfied with mobilization. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1575197790401007616
The thing about annexation is that it’s actually an extremely high risk move, especially (as suggested) if the Russian public don’t buy it. The only purpose for it would be to create an excuse for using nuclear weapons, or at least creating a threat that the Western allies of Ukraine buy into. If that’s actually a bluff then it opens up the question of the what is the line that can’t be crossed. At the moment it’s the recognised Russian border. But if Russia no longer recognise what their real border is…
Comments
On an intellectual level I'm one of them, though on a practical level I think it falls into the same trap as communism - lovely in theory, leads to gulags in practice.
Firefighters are battling two major storm-related fires in Key West and have responded to several more smaller fire emergencies.
The National Weather Service issued several tornado warnings Wednesday night and Thursday morning. There are no confirmed tornadoes, but the chances of tornadoes today “remain pretty high,” Rodney Wynn, a meteorologist with the Weather Service in Tampa, said, adding that they are “pretty common” during hurricanes.
Live radio WGCU (NPR) from Fort Myers, Florida:
https://onlineradiobox.com/us/wgcu/?cs=us.wgcu&played=1
A house of cards that Kwarteng has pulled...
If he tells us that we are all poorer thanks to Covid and Russia, and sorry, but we'll just have to put up with sh*t services and high taxes for years to come then that might be believable.
I'm not his biggest fan but this is a revealing moment from Jordan Peterson. Ignore the interviewer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1612L2FMHo
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11258227/BoE-announces-buy-government-debt-bid-ease-market-chaos.html#comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrpXoAYw_0A
"It started in America"
The contagion is everywhere and isnt going away soon. Printed money has destroyed us
BBC Radio Tees
@BBCTees
🚨 Prime Minister Liz Truss will be speaking live on our breakfast show tomorrow morning!
🤔 Do you have a question you'd like us to ask to her?
"Come back Boris, all is forgiven?"
We stayed up together to watch Portillo lose. She's never had a good word to say about Boris. Can any disgraced former Prime Minister have had their reputation enhanced so quickly by their successor?
double check my checking if you like.
Maybe a touch tongue in cheek, as that last poll I think was January. Though, on the other hand, it shows the firm does double digit leads and sub 30 Tories so are not a Kantor or Techne.
My other posts today are not bizarre, they are actually true, cutting through the hyperbole on here today if you listen to what I am saying.
What I am saying is really straightforward. The growth budget, with a couple of little ideological flourishes which have back fired, and the quarter of a trillion borrowing for Bill Freezing are actually two very different fiscal events, the chancellor has unwisely blurred together. The markets are not, IMF mostly not, attacking the growth budget - the growth budget isn’t a huge financial risk problem on its own. It is actually UK putting it out there we intend to borrow nearly a quarter of a trillion to freeze our consumers energy bills for a few years the markets are saying no to - the markets are saying no, we assess you are not in a great position to manage that size of largesse right now.
So the answer is really straightforward as well, and it doesn’t need cuts or tax rises (though interest rates are touch low maybe, and a tax contribution such as a windfall element would sweeten the markets) we just don’t borrow £200B and give half of it to people who don’t even need a hand out. We adjust the Bill Freezing plan.
Simples.
Any questions?
Consumer confidence and disposable income on the floor, high inflation, borrowing and a weak currency is not a "growth Budget" in my book.
I'd trade the UK's situation for the US every day and twice on Sundays.
Didn't turn out well for Lord North. But then he clearly lacked the politico-economic talents of, say, Liz Truss.
@PickardJE
former Chief Adviser at the Bank of England, Charles Goodhart, tells Times Radio: "You can say goodbye to growth over the period from now until the general election…”
What a sh*tshow!
The only moral course of action now is a clean-up job under not-Truss, perhaps looking at a modest wealth tax as part of an overall package that returns to fiscal sanity.
Time to slay some sacred cows, to wit the triple lock.
And I find it very odd that you seem to KNOW what the market is thinking. Particularly since the market did not react like this to the gas price announcement. It was a response to the giveaway statement. So the government can withdraw the energy support if the tax cuts are non-negotiable and the public can decide if that was a sensible choice.
⚡️Meduza: Kremlin to hold back on illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories.
According to independent Russian media outlet Meduza, the annexation will be postponed as it now won't have the desired "PR effect" on the Russian population that is dissatisfied with mobilization.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1575197790401007616
Personally I wouldn't rule out the LDs passing the Tories at some point before the GE.
The pure poetic justice of this.
Burn Tories Burn!
Like "will you admit I was right?"
To be fair to him his claims have not been been massively over excessive. As the time gets nearer he will struggle, as all Labour campaigns have since 'Labour's Tax Bombshell' (1992) to be seen as honest without pledging to raise taxes on you as opposed to someone else. Or will be indicate that taxes must rise and risk doing a Kinnock?
Such is, and will be, the situation over tax, spend, borrow, debt, deficit, mortgages, housing, NHS, social care....etc that all we can ask for is a government that is sane, caring, fairly honest, moderate, and has got a costed plan.
The current position is, as we know, dire in each respect. Labour's problem is that there is no centrist Labour style cause not wanting both massively increased pay, massively better performance and massive infrastructure investment.
It doesn't matter what you say, he'll say his agenda piece and then put you on ignore.
What is Shadsy?
Not North Norfolk Digital.
“Bristol Colston statue toppling was 'violent act', say judges”
This was the case Braverman referred to judges for “clarification”. She appears to have been vindicated.
Landfall at 3.05pm, category 4, near Port Charlotte. Storm surge worst south of eye, around Fort Myers & vicinity.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/hurricane-ian-live-updates-rcna49729
What next? Cars? Posters?
https://www.ft.com/content/756e81d1-b2a6-4580-9054-206386353c4e
“If there was no intervention today, gilt yields could have gone up to 7-8 per cent from 4.5 per cent this morning and in that situation around 90 per cent of UK pension funds would have run out of collateral,” said Kerrin Rosenberg, Cardano Investment chief executive. “They would have been wiped out.”
——
And if they have to sell them at 7-8%…?
It very nearly came off too, in the form of the Relugas Compact designed by Haldane to force Campbell-Bannerman out of the leadership.
How are you mate?
Perhaps the lowest since May?
Just pissed off that I have lost about £200 in Boris is going bets this year, because they were all Gone by the end of the month bets. More patient and less greedy, is the way forward.
"Report from the gilt market...
The fall in prices has created a lot of forced sellers, as pension funds bought government bonds using leverage. That needs to be collateralised daily and the speed and size of the moves (completely unprecedented) means many are struggling to sell other assets in time. That forced selling pushes prices down further and exacerbates the problem.
This is spiraling out of control and will only get worse without intervention. Absent that, this could end up massively increasingly the deficit of UK DB Pension Funds and removing what buyers the government already had for its debt"
Thank God the BoE (belatedly) intervened.
How are you matey
Forecasters are forecasting that
> storm surge may last up to six hours in some areas
> Ian will still be hurricane strength going through central Florida including Orlando
> rainfall already heavy across south Florida and will get worse before it gets better
> storm surge expected on ATLANTIC coast around Jacksonville & St Augustine in northeast FL
Put it all on the grandkids credit card, eh?!
Re: para 2, the Regulas Compact was a truly bullshit bluff, predicated on the laughable notion that none of the Compacters would accept office under Campbell-Bannerman. Even Mrs. C-B knew THAT was a crock and a half, as so proved.
Find it very difficult to concentrate with this endless stream of crap news from the UK.
The only upside is that this must surely be the final denouement for the malevolent clowns formerly known as the Conservative Party.
LAB: 45% (+7)
CON: 28% (-4)
LDM: 11% (-2)
GRN: 6% (-1)
RFM: 3% (=)
Via @FindoutnowUK, 23-27 Sep.
It is doubly so as DB schemes are pretty much dead in the private sector since the pension raid and we are going to find in 20 years or so we will have a huge income divide between public sector pensioners and private sector pensioners which is going to breed a lot of resentment from people who's tax is funding pensions they will never be able to afford themselves.
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1575182230640394240
$1.1 bln 🇺🇸 additional security assistance for 🇺🇦:
✅18 HIMARS
✅150 HMMWVs
✅20 multi-mission radars
✅40 trucks, 80 trailers
✅Tactical secure comms & surveillance systems
✅Explosive ordnance disposal equipment
✅Body armor
Other equipment
Thank you to @POTUS & @SecDef!
🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸
https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1575206419061563392