US really stepping up the supplies to Ukraine. Even a small number of HIMARs made a big difference. 18 more on the way!
$1.1 bln 🇺🇸 additional security assistance for 🇺🇦: ✅18 HIMARS ✅150 HMMWVs ✅20 multi-mission radars ✅40 trucks, 80 trailers ✅Tactical secure comms & surveillance systems ✅Explosive ordnance disposal equipment ✅Body armor Other equipment Thank you to @POTUS & @SecDef! 🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸 https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1575206419061563392
I saw it suggested that these were contracts for delivery over the next 1-2 years, rather than being imminent supplies through the Presidential Drawdown Authority.
If they are for imminent delivery that would be a big deal. Ukraine currently have 16 HIMARS and 11 of the similar, tracked, M270 MLRS. So +18 would be +two-thirds.
One of contributing factors to the markets crisis was the Govt didn't publish OBR forecasts alongside mini-Budget = uncertainty. Govt said OBR couldn't get them ready within timescales for 23 Sept. In fact, the OBR "stood ready" to produce them by 14 Sept:
In its defence, govt said this week that the OBR had said (quoting OBR) any forecasts would “necessarily require some reduction in the breadth and depth of the analysis and information that we would be able to provide”
HOWEVER this does not tell the full story. In a letter to Treasury cttee chair on 26 August, OBR chair said "we would do our best in the time available to give the Govt, Parliament & the public the most complete & up-to-date picture of the economic and fiscal outlook as possible"
One of contributing factors to the markets crisis was the Govt didn't publish OBR forecasts alongside mini-Budget = uncertainty. Govt said OBR couldn't get them ready within timescales for 23 Sept. In fact, the OBR "stood ready" to produce them by 14 Sept:
In its defence, govt said this week that the OBR had said (quoting OBR) any forecasts would “necessarily require some reduction in the breadth and depth of the analysis and information that we would be able to provide”
HOWEVER this does not tell the full story. In a letter to Treasury cttee chair on 26 August, OBR chair said "we would do our best in the time available to give the Govt, Parliament & the public the most complete & up-to-date picture of the economic and fiscal outlook as possible"
Same recording, or only a handful of minutes on each?
Eight different interviews. Some stations have been touting for questions on social media from listeners.
She’s missed out Wales, Scotland and NI which is pisspoor.
Quite, but as HYUFD says they don't count. Not enough Tory votes
And it's barely enough time to say good morning at each, and try to remember not to congratulate Leeds on Lancashire's cricket win and remark in Teesside on the Colston statue. Certainly not compared with an hour beign grilled by the BBC or Sky. .
deliberate..she isnt capable of handling difficult questioning
There are about 40 BBC Radio Countyshire stations, so that's five hours to get through all of them.
Doesn't seem like a brilliantly efficient use of the PM's time.
(What some celebs do is to record answers, then let Mike and Snoo (your morning crew- back tomorrow at six on Local FM) tack on the questions to go with them. Which is way more efficient, if productivity is what's going to get us out of this hole.)
Has no one else clocked that we now have another episode of incompetence from the BoW to contend with? Seems like DB pensions / LDI were a ticking time bomb that was going to explode whenever gilt yields reverted to historical norms. Which they were going to anyway via QE reversal and being dragged up by the Fed.
On top of the crap job by the MPC last week, following a sustained period of being far too dovish.
Anyway let’s blame Kwasi for a £2bn tax cut for higher rate taxpayers!
Who do you think is paying the 20% employer contribution into public sector pensions if not tax payers? Plus not all public sector pensions are fully funded
You could argue the "tax payer" is paying for the whole thing. The term "Public Sector Pension" covers a multitude of sins and is a lazy catch-all. The pension arrangements for civil servants, local Government officers, fire fighters, the Police and the Armed Forces are all different.
The fact remains we have two choices
Spend less or tax more.
Tax more isn't an option because the amount of extra tax that is needed is far more than could be raised from upper earners therefore the basic rate would have to be raised and that would push millions from just about managing to poverty.
The sooner we accept we have to spend less and have a grown up conversation about what we can do without the sooner things get fixed.
Currently all we have is people yelping spend more, taxing the rich more will pay for it when in reality the extra tax we could raise is going to nowhere near cutting the deficit. We would probably need to raise the basic rate to at least 25% even if we made top rate tax 75% to cover the deficit
The 45% rate cut accounts for just 2 billion which is an extraordinary small amount to lose credibility on
And yes you are right, tax increases and spending cuts loom a long way into the future
it took 13 years but finally the tories elected a leader dumb enough to fall into Brown's farewell trap
For example the wage bill for the NHS is 56.1 billion (46.6% of total nhs budget)
This means of that 56.1 about 9 billion is employer pension contributions. Where do you think that is coming from if not the tax payer?
Of course the government as an employer is paying employer pension contributions. Assuming we want the government to have employees we do actually need to pay the costs (salary, employer pension contribution and everything else) of employing people.
I didnt suggest they dont pay employer contributions. I suggested they were payed at a more realistic rate 20% is ridiculous when we are at this level of debt and deficit
They are realistic when set against the original reduction in salary. Free market innit. See what @Selebian said.
But as the source I supplied indicated apart from knowledge intensive industries public sector employees actually earn more than their private sector counterparts
Some do, some don't, so it evens out to some degree. But in any case it is not relevant. You were complaining not about total salary but about 20% employer contribs on salary, while ignoring the reduction in salary by something like 10% in the first place.
Apart from the source I quoted showed that apart from a narrow range of jobs public sector earns more....you keep trying to ignore that and pretend the public sector worker is hard done by when most really aren't. If they don't like the change they can resign and get a private sector job. I am guessing most won't when they look at the salaries they can get.
So in short - deep concern, deep alarm but few signs yet of Tory discontentment rallying round a move. But Tory conference begins Sunday (forcing people on record) and crunch votes this autumn. Everyone - like the country - watching to see if things stabilise or deteriorate. 10/
Same recording, or only a handful of minutes on each?
Eight different interviews. Some stations have been touting for questions on social media from listeners.
She’s missed out Wales, Scotland and NI which is pisspoor.
Quite, but as HYUFD says they don't count. Not enough Tory votes
And it's barely enough time to say good morning at each, and try to remember not to congratulate Leeds on Lancashire's cricket win and remark in Teesside on the Colston statue. Certainly not compared with an hour beign grilled by the BBC or Sky. .
deliberate..she isnt capable of handling difficult questioning
She may or may not be, but what is the average Norfolk rustic or Bristle chap going to think when Ms Truss clears off barely five minutes after the hellos and some banal remark about where she is virtually? They'll think she is extracting the urine.
Who do you think is paying the 20% employer contribution into public sector pensions if not tax payers? Plus not all public sector pensions are fully funded
You could argue the "tax payer" is paying for the whole thing. The term "Public Sector Pension" covers a multitude of sins and is a lazy catch-all. The pension arrangements for civil servants, local Government officers, fire fighters, the Police and the Armed Forces are all different.
The fact remains we have two choices
Spend less or tax more.
Tax more isn't an option because the amount of extra tax that is needed is far more than could be raised from upper earners therefore the basic rate would have to be raised and that would push millions from just about managing to poverty.
The sooner we accept we have to spend less and have a grown up conversation about what we can do without the sooner things get fixed.
Currently all we have is people yelping spend more, taxing the rich more will pay for it when in reality the extra tax we could raise is going to nowhere near cutting the deficit. We would probably need to raise the basic rate to at least 25% even if we made top rate tax 75% to cover the deficit
impossible to have a grown up conversation in the kind of democracy we have now
The most bizarre thing I think is the whole line now “that we wait for the 23rd November “ for the plan to reduce debt as proportion of GDP
They quite clearly had no plan and are now Scrabbling to pull one together
Citi bank says it now expects the government to deliver a “substantial fiscal announcement now in the week of the 11 October…If the government is able to meaningfully re-assure the markets, the pressure on gilts could ease.”
One of contributing factors to the markets crisis was the Govt didn't publish OBR forecasts alongside mini-Budget = uncertainty. Govt said OBR couldn't get them ready within timescales for 23 Sept. In fact, the OBR "stood ready" to produce them by 14 Sept:
In its defence, govt said this week that the OBR had said (quoting OBR) any forecasts would “necessarily require some reduction in the breadth and depth of the analysis and information that we would be able to provide”
HOWEVER this does not tell the full story. In a letter to Treasury cttee chair on 26 August, OBR chair said "we would do our best in the time available to give the Govt, Parliament & the public the most complete & up-to-date picture of the economic and fiscal outlook as possible"
This is why the markets have no confidence in the Truss Ministry.
How did the government not see that no OBR forecast would look like they were trying to hide stuff?
Hubris meets nemesis.
I spoke to somebody close to the Tory Party today, their view, Liz Truss and her supporters think she won a massive landslide general election victory when she couldn't get more than a handful of MPs to vote for her and a lower share of the vote with the Tory members than IDS did.
For example the wage bill for the NHS is 56.1 billion (46.6% of total nhs budget)
This means of that 56.1 about 9 billion is employer pension contributions. Where do you think that is coming from if not the tax payer?
Of course the government as an employer is paying employer pension contributions. Assuming we want the government to have employees we do actually need to pay the costs (salary, employer pension contribution and everything else) of employing people.
I didnt suggest they dont pay employer contributions. I suggested they were payed at a more realistic rate 20% is ridiculous when we are at this level of debt and deficit
The large number of vacancies suggests that working in the NHS is not the goldmine that you think.
My old flatmate picked up his pension this week after 35 years in the CS, starting in the treasury. WhatsApped me to say he got out at the right time. Its a bloody farce at the top.
Re; Truss's tours of BBC local radio stations to avoid difficult questioning, perhaps she'll be on at 4am to avoid trouble, as Alan Partridge's station managers planned for him too ?
what could really move things now amongst the oaps is tory incompetence threatened pensions....suddenly it starts to hit home for the oaps who think they are sitting pretty in mortgage free houses and being out of the workforce
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 37m "Ministers in cabinet rubbish the link between Friday's statement and today's turmoil". Then those Ministers have no business being anywhere near a whelk-stall, never mind the cabinet table.
The Cabinet falls en masse when Truss falls. Of course they are denying there is any link. Will there have ever been a more sycophantic cloned Cabinet?
One of contributing factors to the markets crisis was the Govt didn't publish OBR forecasts alongside mini-Budget = uncertainty. Govt said OBR couldn't get them ready within timescales for 23 Sept. In fact, the OBR "stood ready" to produce them by 14 Sept:
In its defence, govt said this week that the OBR had said (quoting OBR) any forecasts would “necessarily require some reduction in the breadth and depth of the analysis and information that we would be able to provide”
HOWEVER this does not tell the full story. In a letter to Treasury cttee chair on 26 August, OBR chair said "we would do our best in the time available to give the Govt, Parliament & the public the most complete & up-to-date picture of the economic and fiscal outlook as possible"
The most bizarre thing I think is the whole line now “that we wait for the 23rd November “ for the plan to reduce debt as proportion of GDP
They quite clearly had no plan and are now Scrabbling to pull one together
Citi bank says it now expects the government to deliver a “substantial fiscal announcement now in the week of the 11 October…If the government is able to meaningfully re-assure the markets, the pressure on gilts could ease.”
what could really move things now amongst the oaps is tory incompetence threatened pensions....suddenly it starts to hit home for the oaps who think they are sitting pretty in mortgage free houses and being out of the workforce
Do we know the Daily Mail front page for tomorrow?
Has no one else clocked that we now have another episode of incompetence from the BoW to contend with? Seems like DB pensions / LDI were a ticking time bomb that was going to explode whenever gilt yields reverted to historical norms. Which they were going to anyway via QE reversal and being dragged up by the Fed.
On top of the crap job by the MPC last week, following a sustained period of being far too dovish.
Anyway let’s blame Kwasi for a £2bn tax cut for higher rate taxpayers!
How did the government not see that no OBR forecast would look like they were trying to hide stuff?
Because Truss and Kwarteng are not half as clever as they think they are. Nobody thinks they are hiding the figures because they are flattering.
Seriously anyone fancy trying such tricks in a business context? Would you get away with it? Like hell you would, you'd be lucky to keep your job.
"...the prime minister is a maniac. It is the trait that comes across in the testimony of advisers and civil servants who have worked with her. They describe fundamentalist attachment to the free-market ideas that were manifest as policy in last week’s disastrous mini-budget, and a habit of dismissing rational caution as spoilsport cowardice. It is said that Truss’s fanatical streak often needed reining in by No 10 when she was a minister. Now it is unbridled. Character flaws of that magnitude cannot be hidden from the public."
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 37m "Ministers in cabinet rubbish the link between Friday's statement and today's turmoil". Then those Ministers have no business being anywhere near a whelk-stall, never mind the cabinet table.
The Cabinet falls en masse when Truss falls. Of course they are denying there is any link. Will there have ever been a more sycophantic cloned Cabinet?
Two PMs in a row now have tried Cabinets that are full of useless but ultra loyal MPs, rather than "all the talents" and "cabinet of rivals".
Sickening . To cut the 45% top rate and then to not support those who have very little whilst at the same time re-instating the triple lock .
TBF the TL is important for those pensioners who don't have much in the way of a private pension or other income. But to treat differently the other folk who have very little ...
what could really move things now amongst the oaps is tory incompetence threatened pensions....suddenly it starts to hit home for the oaps who think they are sitting pretty in mortgage free houses and being out of the workforce
Do we know the Daily Mail front page for tomorrow?
Liz Truss joined the Tories from the Lib Dems in about 1997 I believe, the nadir of the patter’s fortunes. She believes in this shit. She really does. She won’t back down.
One of contributing factors to the markets crisis was the Govt didn't publish OBR forecasts alongside mini-Budget = uncertainty. Govt said OBR couldn't get them ready within timescales for 23 Sept. In fact, the OBR "stood ready" to produce them by 14 Sept:
In its defence, govt said this week that the OBR had said (quoting OBR) any forecasts would “necessarily require some reduction in the breadth and depth of the analysis and information that we would be able to provide”
HOWEVER this does not tell the full story. In a letter to Treasury cttee chair on 26 August, OBR chair said "we would do our best in the time available to give the Govt, Parliament & the public the most complete & up-to-date picture of the economic and fiscal outlook as possible"
what could really move things now amongst the oaps is tory incompetence threatened pensions....suddenly it starts to hit home for the oaps who think they are sitting pretty in mortgage free houses and being out of the workforce
Do we know the Daily Mail front page for tomorrow?
"Meghan da-dah da-dah da-dah..." I expect.
I would be very surprised if the Pension word makes an appearance.
what could really move things now amongst the oaps is tory incompetence threatened pensions....suddenly it starts to hit home for the oaps who think they are sitting pretty in mortgage free houses and being out of the workforce
Do we know the Daily Mail front page for tomorrow?
what could really move things now amongst the oaps is tory incompetence threatened pensions....suddenly it starts to hit home for the oaps who think they are sitting pretty in mortgage free houses and being out of the workforce
Don't think what happened today was about pensioners who are already being paid their pensions. It was about gilts and liabilities for future pensioners I think?
We know you’re our core voter group so there’s your triple lock and big hike to account for inflation . Those on benefits , you don’t vote for us so there FOAD !
what could really move things now amongst the oaps is tory incompetence threatened pensions....suddenly it starts to hit home for the oaps who think they are sitting pretty in mortgage free houses and being out of the workforce
Do we know the Daily Mail front page for tomorrow?
So in short - deep concern, deep alarm but few signs yet of Tory discontentment rallying round a move. But Tory conference begins Sunday (forcing people on record) and crunch votes this autumn. Everyone - like the country - watching to see if things stabilise or deteriorate. 10/
This government is awesome, the optics so brilliant.
I know it is a very inexperienced Cabinet, with the exception of Truss, but have none of them taken part in politics at all in their lives? They cannot sell this current approach, it just screams callous and uncaring.
How did the government not see that no OBR forecast would look like they were trying to hide stuff?
Because Truss and Kwarteng are not half as clever as they think they are. Nobody thinks they are hiding the figures because they are flattering.
Seriously anyone fancy trying such tricks in a business context? Would you get away with it? Like hell you would, you'd be lucky to keep your job.
"...the prime minister is a maniac. It is the trait that comes across in the testimony of advisers and civil servants who have worked with her. They describe fundamentalist attachment to the free-market ideas that were manifest as policy in last week’s disastrous mini-budget, and a habit of dismissing rational caution as spoilsport cowardice. It is said that Truss’s fanatical streak often needed reining in by No 10 when she was a minister. Now it is unbridled. Character flaws of that magnitude cannot be hidden from the public."
SKS wants parliament recalled. Not going to happen but could he call all his party in to ask questions to empty benches. A publicity stunt sure. But emphasizes the government being AWOL.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
Has no one else clocked that we now have another episode of incompetence from the BoW to contend with? Seems like DB pensions / LDI were a ticking time bomb that was going to explode whenever gilt yields reverted to historical norms. Which they were going to anyway via QE reversal and being dragged up by the Fed.
On top of the crap job by the MPC last week, following a sustained period of being far too dovish.
Anyway let’s blame Kwasi for a £2bn tax cut for higher rate taxpayers!
So why did Truss and Kwarteng support the BoE intervention and offer unlimited taxpayer funding to cover the BoE’s (potential) losses?
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
There really is the stench of death around this government now. To be fair, Sunak’s campaign team warned that Truss was a crackpot, and she’s not disappointed. | Tory MPs tell Truss: sack Kwarteng or face mutiny
Wow. Tory MP quoted in article: “She could sack Kwasi and appoint somebody who could then make a few tweaks. But I think people are seriously underpricing the chance that it’s all over, that this government is dead on arrival.” /2
Sickening . To cut the 45% top rate and then to not support those who have very little whilst at the same time re-instating the triple lock .
Whole thing seems like route one to throwing an election, to be honest.
That would be fine, but it's also likely that an election is two years away.
If she wanted to throw an election without it causing real damage, she should just have called an election and put something obviously crazy and unacceptable in the manifesto, like ceding Essex to Belgum (Luxembourg can have Romford) or making people who have benefited from the house price boom pay for their social care.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
Has no one else clocked that we now have another episode of incompetence from the BoW to contend with? Seems like DB pensions / LDI were a ticking time bomb that was going to explode whenever gilt yields reverted to historical norms. Which they were going to anyway via QE reversal and being dragged up by the Fed.
On top of the crap job by the MPC last week, following a sustained period of being far too dovish.
Anyway let’s blame Kwasi for a £2bn tax cut for higher rate taxpayers!
What incompetency? The BoE today had a choice of Watch a lot of pensions disappear by close of play today or do something. So it did something…
I wouldn't say they're falling into a trap but Labour should be focusing on the fiscal recklessness rather than fairness of what the government is doing. Competence is always the killer.
I wonder whether Truss takes after her mother who was in CND. Perhaps people tried to reason with her that unilateral disarmament was a mistake but she just saw that as spoilsport behaviour? Just believe in peace and all that.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
Crikey. Starmer is in landslide territory if this is reflected across Tory voters in general.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
You're not deserting them, they have deserted you.
My 90 yo father-in-law, a loyal and committed Tory all his life, is utterly bemused by the current shambles.
In truth though, he remains a Conservative; the party bearing that name does not.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
That's literally where I'm at, no messing about with a coalition, give Labour a clear run to fix the economy and the Tories no chance of stumbling back into office before a sufficient amount of time has passed and a proper leader is in place.
I wouldn't say they're falling into a trap but Labour should be focusing on the fiscal recklessness rather than fairness of what the government is doing. Competence is always the killer.
I wonder whether Truss takes after her mother who was in CND. Perhaps people tried to reason with her that unilateral disarmament was a mistake but she just saw that as spoilsport behaviour? Just believe in peace and all that.
She’s basically a political extremists, from a family of political extremists.
SKS wants parliament recalled. Not going to happen but could he call all his party in to ask questions to empty benches. A publicity stunt sure. But emphasizes the government being AWOL.
Here's a question. Who is the government accountable to when parliament isn't sitting throughout so much of the year?
Sickening . To cut the 45% top rate and then to not support those who have very little whilst at the same time re-instating the triple lock .
Whole thing seems like route one to throwing an election, to be honest.
That would be fine, but it's also likely that an election is two years away.
If she wanted to throw an election without it causing real damage, she should just have called an election and put something obviously crazy and unacceptable in the manifesto, like ceding Essex to Belgum (Luxembourg can have Romford) or making people who have benefited from the house price boom pay for their social care.
Sunil fails to resist the temptation to type: "Romford, like Ilford, has been in Greater London since 1965."
SKS wants parliament recalled. Not going to happen but could he call all his party in to ask questions to empty benches. A publicity stunt sure. But emphasizes the government being AWOL.
Not sure he can do that tbh. HoC won't be open unless the Speaker agrees to it surely?
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
Truss is doing/wants to do the kind of things that Cameron should have done in 2010. Obviously we’re in a different situation now which makes it much harder, but it’s not crazy.
Has no one else clocked that we now have another episode of incompetence from the BoW to contend with? Seems like DB pensions / LDI were a ticking time bomb that was going to explode whenever gilt yields reverted to historical norms. Which they were going to anyway via QE reversal and being dragged up by the Fed.
On top of the crap job by the MPC last week, following a sustained period of being far too dovish.
Anyway let’s blame Kwasi for a £2bn tax cut for higher rate taxpayers!
A few more nuggets to flesh out Sam’s thread, based on a series of conversations with people in and close to government over recent days. To echo Sam, they have two overarching messages: 1. Market chaos is NOT a consequence of Friday’s statement 2. No change in plans, whatsoever. https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1575203918573080576
They have spoken to credible FX people and market traders, who have assured them it simply “doesn’t add up” that their fiscal package could have caused this market reaction. They believe the main explanation for these ructions is US monetary policy.
They are determined to plough on with the plan and provide more info about their supply side reforms on everything from wind farms to planning. They believe this will help reassure markets, as will their medium term fiscal plan in Nov.
One message you’ll be hearing a LOT in the coming wks: if it weren’t for govt’s mini-Budget (and by this they seem mainly to mean the energy package) UK would have been facing a major economic shock. Markets can do what they want; they believe theirs is the right plan.
With a side swipe at "speculators" and hedge funds - the free marketers he has spent his whole life telling us to worship as they provide oil for the great financial engine that delivers prosperity.
It is all very easy for Starmer at the moment but I fail to see exactly what he's said he's going to do that will fundamentally change the position that we are in.
If he tells us that we are all poorer thanks to Covid and Russia, and sorry, but we'll just have to put up with sh*t services and high taxes for years to come then that might be believable.
"we are all poorer thanks to Covid and Russia, and sorry, but we'll just have to put up with sh*t services and high taxes for years to come"
... is a pithy summation of the facts. And this is the *good* outcome, where the war ends soonish, and does not worsen
At some point, some political party has to give this news to the British people
US really stepping up the supplies to Ukraine. Even a small number of HIMARs made a big difference. 18 more on the way!
$1.1 bln 🇺🇸 additional security assistance for 🇺🇦: ✅18 HIMARS ✅150 HMMWVs ✅20 multi-mission radars ✅40 trucks, 80 trailers ✅Tactical secure comms & surveillance systems ✅Explosive ordnance disposal equipment ✅Body armor Other equipment Thank you to @POTUS & @SecDef! 🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸 https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1575206419061563392
I saw it suggested that these were contracts for delivery over the next 1-2 years, rather than being imminent supplies through the Presidential Drawdown Authority.
If they are for imminent delivery that would be a big deal. Ukraine currently have 16 HIMARS and 11 of the similar, tracked, M270 MLRS. So +18 would be +two-thirds.
- ”We have now got the data set of the dramatic YouGov poll that had Labour with a 17% lead over the Conservatives.”
Interesting choice of sub-sample there Mike. For punters interested in the Maj market, this is the more interesting subsample:
YOUGOV HAS SNP WITH A 23% LEAD AMONG SCOTS
SNP 44% SLab 21% SCon 19% SLD 5%
Isn’t that a bit of a drop from GE 2019?
No? The SNP lead was 18 points in 2019.
At 45% tbf, but subsamples, subsamples. Still, it's striking how in 2019 the Tories were at 25% and Labour at 19% with LDs at 10. Wonder what it will be like in a few days.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
Crikey. Starmer is in landslide territory if this is reflected across Tory voters in general.
GE cannot come quick enough.
He is in landslide territory.
I’ve never felt so horrified by the tories that I’d absolutely vote for Labour. I am actively wishing Starmer on. I have never voted Labour before.
I think this will end up with Truss and Kwarteng made to drop the 45p and bring forward the details before November in return for the party backing the growth plan and spending restraint in general.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
Truss is doing/wants to do the kind of things that Cameron should have done in 2010. Obviously we’re in a different situation now which makes it much harder, but it’s not crazy.
It’s crazy to do it 12 years into a government with 0 mandate.
She has absolutely no right to implement the chaos we see. If she is so confident in herself, call a GE
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
One can only imagine what the average Tory MP’s postbag looks like at the moment.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
Can (barely) understand how (at least as a tactic) people can pooh pooh the pound plunge etc.
But how can anyone do the same with respect to THIS statement?
We don't exactly run in same circles (except PB) or share similar views (mostly) but I feel sure that you are NOT alone.
Might same same or close re: other PBers. But you perhaps have been most consistent and solid in your views, and values.
I must say I'm surprised and pleased to see some of our most committed Tory posters talking about giving Starmer their vote next time. I think the Tories will be in the low-to-mid 20's soon.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
That's literally where I'm at, no messing about with a coalition, give Labour a clear run to fix the economy and the Tories no chance of stumbling back into office before a sufficient amount of time has passed and a proper leader is in place.
It breaks my heart the Tory party is doing this to the country but unlike the GOP we stand up and try and oust our nutty leaders.
@PickardJE former Chief Adviser at the Bank of England, Charles Goodhart, tells Times Radio: "You can say goodbye to growth over the period from now until the general election…”
Quelle surprise.
Seems pretty fatal for the government. How can they explain their pro-growth agenda leading to (or failing to prevent) the exact opposite occurring?
So far they seem to be saying
1) You just don't understand it 2) It's the fault of people not believing in it hard enough
But I cannot see that being compelling for the person in the street suffering in a recession.
A recession is the least of the problems for people in the street.
Depression Decline and fall Junk credit ratings Authoritarianism Nuclear conflict Evaporating public services
The Yookay is entering the end game. A “recession” is a walk in the park compared to what’s about to happen.
We are now quite a poor country...many people just dont realise it yet. We have a current account deficit of 8.3% of gdp and a budget deficit of 4.8% of gdp with total debt to gdp nr 100%. There will now be massive drops in living standards for the majority of the population
What strikes me when visiting the UK is the crap people buy. Duff cars, cheap clothes, dreadful furniture, junk food, tat. There is no taste for quality. There is no taste full stop.
Mayfair, one of my more frequent haunts during recent years, is a special case. All those awful overpriced Italian sports cars that seem to just be permanently parked for show.
The immense wealth has been “spaffed up a wall”, to quote the most recent useless FM to be kicked out of office.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
Truss is doing/wants to do the kind of things that Cameron should have done in 2010. Obviously we’re in a different situation now which makes it much harder, but it’s not crazy.
Undoubtedly Thatcher wanted to as well but she was sensible enough not to try and ignore economic reality, the high price of debt, and soaring inflation and press on regardless and ignore any issues about fiscal sustainability.
That's the problem here. It's raw ideology meeting the real world.
Has no one else clocked that we now have another episode of incompetence from the BoW to contend with? Seems like DB pensions / LDI were a ticking time bomb that was going to explode whenever gilt yields reverted to historical norms. Which they were going to anyway via QE reversal and being dragged up by the Fed.
On top of the crap job by the MPC last week, following a sustained period of being far too dovish.
Anyway let’s blame Kwasi for a £2bn tax cut for higher rate taxpayers!
What incompetency? The BoE today had a choice of Watch a lot of pensions disappear by close of play today or do something. So it did something…
Doing something today was right (though the MPC should have also announced a raise). The incompetence was on the prudential side over years in letting the problem store up.
I must say I'm surprised and pleased to see some of our most committed Tory posters talking about giving Starmer their vote next time. I think the Tories will be in the low-to-mid 20's soon.
Comments
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/06/07/poland-himars-us/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/09/28/how-truss-kwarteng-warned-danger-pound-nosedived/
Doesn't seem like a brilliantly efficient use of the PM's time.
(What some celebs do is to record answers, then let Mike and Snoo (your morning crew- back tomorrow at six on Local FM) tack on the questions to go with them. Which is way more efficient, if productivity is what's going to get us out of this hole.)
On top of the crap job by the MPC last week, following a sustained period of being far too dovish.
Anyway let’s blame Kwasi for a £2bn tax cut for higher rate taxpayers!
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1575218382999547904
They quite clearly had no plan and are now
Scrabbling to pull one together
https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1575201312182251520
I spoke to somebody close to the Tory Party today, their view, Liz Truss and her supporters think she won a massive landslide general election victory when she couldn't get more than a handful of MPs to vote for her and a lower share of the vote with the Tory members than IDS did.
R4Today will simply re-broadcast the gaffes (inevitably).
My old flatmate picked up his pension this week after 35 years in the CS, starting in the treasury. WhatsApped me to say he got out at the right time. Its a bloody farce at the top.
If she repeats the same things eight times, or if she contradicts herself?
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1575220392771604480
Seriously anyone fancy trying such tricks in a business context? Would you get away with it? Like hell you would, you'd be lucky to keep your job.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/27/keir-starmer-labour-liz-truss-politics
Both PMs have failed utterly.
Lesson for the next one.
They have dug themselves a hole so deep their arse is attracting kangaroos.
But the FT cover is very tastefully done, with a graph doing a decent job of going in one of KK's ears and out the other.
Rather more tasteful than the European of a couple of days ago ...
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/28/liz-truss-kwasi-kwarteng-tory-mps-sack-or-mutiny?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Wow. Tory MP quoted in article: “She could sack Kwasi and appoint somebody who could then make a few tweaks. But I think people are seriously underpricing the chance that it’s all over, that this government is dead on arrival.” /2
If she wanted to throw an election without it causing real damage, she should just have called an election and put something obviously crazy and unacceptable in the manifesto, like ceding Essex to Belgum (Luxembourg can have Romford) or making people who have benefited from the house price boom pay for their social care.
I wonder whether Truss takes after her mother who was in CND. Perhaps people tried to reason with her that unilateral disarmament was a mistake but she just saw that as spoilsport behaviour? Just believe in peace and all that.
GE cannot come quick enough.
My 90 yo father-in-law, a loyal and committed Tory all his life, is utterly bemused by the current shambles.
In truth though, he remains a Conservative; the party bearing that name does not.
Truss seems to be taking that as proof that her plan is working...
Totally fucking mental
We al know the type.
To echo Sam, they have two overarching messages:
1. Market chaos is NOT a consequence of Friday’s statement
2. No change in plans, whatsoever. https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1575203918573080576
They have spoken to credible FX people and market traders, who have assured them it simply “doesn’t add up” that their fiscal package could have caused this market reaction. They believe the main explanation for these ructions is US monetary policy.
They are determined to plough on with the plan and provide more info about their supply side reforms on everything from wind farms to planning. They believe this will help reassure markets, as will their medium term fiscal plan in Nov.
One message you’ll be hearing a LOT in the coming wks: if it weren’t for govt’s mini-Budget (and by this they seem mainly to mean the energy package) UK would have been facing a major economic shock.
Markets can do what they want; they believe theirs is the right plan.
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1575225440133795841
No wonder he looks like shit.
... is a pithy summation of the facts. And this is the *good* outcome, where the war ends soonish, and does not worsen
At some point, some political party has to give this news to the British people
The HIMARS is preferred by a number of users because of reliability, speed (it can relocate fast) and lower running costs over the M270
He is in landslide territory.
I’ve never felt so horrified by the tories that I’d absolutely vote for Labour. I am actively wishing Starmer on. I have never voted Labour before.
She has absolutely no right to implement the chaos we see. If she is so confident in herself, call a GE
But how can anyone do the same with respect to THIS statement?
We don't exactly run in same circles (except PB) or share similar views (mostly) but I feel sure that you are NOT alone.
Might same same or close re: other PBers. But you perhaps have been most consistent and solid in your views, and values.
As I believe you still are.
@TorstenBell
·
8h
This is by far the worst unforced economic policy error of my lifetime
lol
That's the problem here. It's raw ideology meeting the real world.
That's not the art of politics.