My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I've long had this thought in mind, but I don't see how they get round Freedom of Movement in return for the SM and CU
That said, Labour might inherit such a desert that can do what they like
Which brings us back to the 'Truss is a deep agent for Liberals and Remain'.
I think Starmer will be a very popular PM. Because he will look wonderful compared to what has gone before
Yes, he will, for about 3 weeks. Until he has to do the necessary
He hasn't got the charisma needed to be a severe doctor giving you enemas, like Thatcher. He's a tolerably dull hired consultant, with a weirdly squeaky pen, who will bore you from minute 10 and then deeply irritate you after a quarter of an hour and then you will want to murder him after 1 hour max
That's our political future
You’ve hated him since the day he was elected. So forgive me if I take your views with a giant grain of salt
I'm trying to spare you further psychic pain
Labour are going to be the next government: yay for you. You've waited long enough. But they will not be popular like Blair (or even early Cameron) because, events, facts, and general shiteness. They will be boring and loathed. Indeed I cannot see a single thing they can do which will be 1. affordable and 2. widely popular
If you can, do tell. I'd quite like to be cheered
Not be the Tories
A pleasing feeling which will last for about, ooh, a month. As I say
British voters have got used to their governments just forking out money so they can all stay home and eat sourdough and not catch the flu. It turns out this was a terrible policy which has screwed our finances (as elsewhere in the world) and also left everyone horribly complacent and entitled
This delusional world is now colliding with reality, in shattering style. We can't afford this crap. We can't afford a tax office which takes 8 months to process 2 documents because everyone is WFH and fancies a nap
It's over. Bitter reality is kicking in. Ask the Ukrainians
It's not clear if any of that would be happening if the government hadn't insisted on a big giveaway.
Look, there was no choice, those super rich folk needed help!
(Yeah yeah, growth will help us all - but how convenient even if it does not work the rich still benefit in the meantime).
DM front page at last. Hmm, massive dead giant squirrel* and female hominine pic, and only mention of pensions is to blame some City wide boys or something.
I think we are going to see a further lurch of the crisis at the Conference next week.
Truss seems to be in denial, if briefings are to be believed, and certainly her outriders are blaming it on lefty markets and the woke Fed/IMF.
If she thinks “supply side” reforms will save her she is further mistaken; the market won’t believe she has the political credibility to push them through.
One thing is for sure, I will shortly be able to answer the question "is Liz Truss dangerously stupid?"
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I've long had this thought in mind, but I don't see how they get round Freedom of Movement in return for the SM and CU
That said, Labour might inherit such a desert that can do what they like
An incoming Labour goverment could do things like signing up to EU phytosanitary rule-taking for smoother food exports, and no one would give a shit. SM and CU? Nah.
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I've long had this thought in mind, but I don't see how they get round Freedom of Movement in return for the SM and CU
That said, Labour might inherit such a desert that can do what they like
I don’t think FoM will be such an issue after the two years we’re set to have. It’s quite likely that the UK will be a far less enticing prospect for economic migrants, especially at the lower end of the earnings scale, while UK citizens may well welcome the end of all the inconveniences now inflicted on them when they go to the European mainland.
Indeed, FoM to move to the continent may be very appealing.
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I've long had this thought in mind, but I don't see how they get round Freedom of Movement in return for the SM and CU
That said, Labour might inherit such a desert that can do what they like
An incoming Labour goverment could do things like signing up to EU phytosanitary rule-taking for smoother food exports, and no one would give a shit. SM and CU? Nah.
As far as I’m aware, the current thinking is indeed to patch up a lot of the holes in the FTA , but not yet to rejoin the SM.
Tory increased their share of vote in that one by 1%. Should steady the ship. Not a bad poll for them to be going up despite the media narrative as backdrop when is was taken.
Are you being a Tory again? Your posts today have been bizarre
I take polling posts seriously, I wouldn’t say anything deliberately untrue, though I could make a mistake. double check my checking if you like.
Maybe a touch tongue in cheek, as that last poll I think was January. Though, on the other hand, it shows the firm does double digit leads and sub 30 Tories so are not a Kantor or Techne.
My other posts today are not bizarre, they are actually true, cutting through the hyperbole on here today if you listen to what I am saying.
What I am saying is really straightforward. The growth budget, with a couple of little ideological flourishes which have back fired, and the quarter of a trillion borrowing for Bill Freezing are actually two very different fiscal events, the chancellor has unwisely blurred together. The markets are not, IMF mostly not, attacking the growth budget - the growth budget isn’t a huge financial risk problem on its own. It is actually UK putting it out there we intend to borrow nearly a quarter of a trillion to freeze our consumers energy bills for a few years the markets are saying no to - the markets are saying no, we assess you are not in a great position to manage that size of largesse right now.
Where will the growth come from though? That has yet to be explained. It has merely been asserted. Consumer confidence and disposable income on the floor, high inflation, borrowing and a weak currency is not a "growth Budget" in my book.
I’m not actually making comment on the ideology in the budget - I am focussing on what has really caused the markets and economists backlash, and what quickly makes the crisis go away.
I’ll make a quick comment on the ideology now though if you seek it. It will be interesting what the OBR says about chance of growth from these measure - independent economists might well say it’s a Reaganonomic wet dream of a growth budget unlikely to change the dial much on its own. In fact the government might agree with that, saying it needs much more than just that to stimulate growth.
I vote Lib Dem. When I hear trickle down budget measures I can hear Sir David Steell - this will cause apartheid in our country, apartheid of the pocket.
The error ‘Karteng made blending the whole thing into one statement doesn’t help me say this, but the ideological bits of budget did not impact the markets alone - the separate plan to borrow a quarter of a trillion for hand outs is what the markets and IMF are quite rightly acting on.
So we can have our own ideological views, but it shouldn’t stop us being fair about what’s really caused the crisis.
DM front page at last. Hmm, massive dead giant squirrel* and female hominine pic, and only mention of pensions is to blame some City wide boys or something.
Mail must have been sitting on that lawrence stuff for ages
I am really struggling to understand how this is front page news. Except unless you have orders to keep the actual news off the front page at all costs...
I think Starmer will be a very popular PM. Because he will look wonderful compared to what has gone before
Yes, he will, for about 3 weeks. Until he has to do the necessary
He hasn't got the charisma needed to be a severe doctor giving you enemas, like Thatcher. He's a tolerably dull hired consultant, with a weirdly squeaky pen, who will bore you from minute 10 and then deeply irritate you after a quarter of an hour and then you will want to murder him after 1 hour max
That's our political future
You’ve hated him since the day he was elected. So forgive me if I take your views with a giant grain of salt
I'm trying to spare you further psychic pain
Labour are going to be the next government: yay for you. You've waited long enough. But they will not be popular like Blair (or even early Cameron) because, events, facts, and general shiteness. They will be boring and loathed. Indeed I cannot see a single thing they can do which will be 1. affordable and 2. widely popular
If you can, do tell. I'd quite like to be cheered
Not be the Tories
A pleasing feeling which will last for about, ooh, a month. As I say
British voters have got used to their governments just forking out money so they can all stay home and eat sourdough and not catch the flu. It turns out this was a terrible policy which has screwed our finances (as elsewhere in the world) and also left everyone horribly complacent and entitled
This delusional world is now colliding with reality, in shattering style. We can't afford this crap. We can't afford a tax office which takes 8 months to process 2 documents because everyone is WFH and fancies a nap
It's over. Bitter reality is kicking in. Ask the Ukrainians
It's not clear if any of that would be happening if the government hadn't insisted on a big giveaway.
Look, there was no choice, those super rich folk needed help!
(Yeah yeah, growth will help us all - but how convenient even if it does not work the rich still benefit in the meantime).
On the upside, Liz Truss might have solved the Crisis of the Dinghy People as everyone now tries to get in a tiny inflatable boat at Dover and haphazardly sail to Boulogne
Carole Walker @carolewalkercw · 8m Tonight on @TimesRadio .. @DavidGauke tells me govt has “pretty well lost its reputation for economic competence”. Says there’s “a lot of disquiet amongst Conservative MPs” who are “looking at what their options are”
Start again, divested of the poisonous legacy. The Tory party is dying, the country needs a sensible centre right option and a working class focussed small c conservative option.
Is that two options or the same one in your view?
Two, i think. Electorally i see scope for a 'red wall' style party, something that can combine the Boris wallers and the Ukip 15, BXP 19 votes and the general trend away from Labour, and clearly a centre right party will have a general appeal to fiscal Tories, centrists etc
Wishful thinking on your part I'd say. Unless PR is brought in.
The trend against Labour in the red wall isn't wishful thinking, its demonstrable fact, they are potentially very vulnerable there. Were 'something new' to emerge (be that one or two something news), how solid are all those new Labour votes in current polling? I expect the Tories will muddle on and Labour will win easily, but eyes on the prize for 28/29 in that case
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I've long had this thought in mind, but I don't see how they get round Freedom of Movement in return for the SM and CU
That said, Labour might inherit such a desert that can do what they like
The next landing point could be that the UK can scrap the border paperwork by shadowing the EU's rules. The sort of thing RochdalePioneers has been pushing for a while- there's nowhere where it's worth diverging, so why put up the barriers that only make sense if we ever have different rules?
Utterly embarrasing for a large nation, but it has to be said that the UK government has a fair bit to be embarrased about at the moment. And it works as a something-for-something; the UK gets to veto FoM, but at the cost of not having input into other stuff and just following rules.
I don't think that sticks permanently, but it's better than where we are now. And whilst the Eurosceptic right will bellyache, they've burnt up a lot of credibility in the last week.
DM front page at last. Hmm, massive dead giant squirrel* and female hominine pic, and only mention of pensions is to blame some City wide boys or something.
Mail must have been sitting on that lawrence stuff for ages
I am really struggling to understand how this is front page news. Except unless you have orders to keep the actual news off the front page at all costs...
Mail needs to be careful. Its readers are as likely to be smashed by this clusterfuck as anyone else - perhaps more so as middle england mortgagees or about to retire with a nice pension or children about to buy first home etc - the failure to give them the actual news will be noticed.
Pravda for Middle England doesn't work all the time.
@PickardJE former Chief Adviser at the Bank of England, Charles Goodhart, tells Times Radio: "You can say goodbye to growth over the period from now until the general election…”
Quelle surprise.
Seems pretty fatal for the government. How can they explain their pro-growth agenda leading to (or failing to prevent) the exact opposite occurring?
So far they seem to be saying
1) You just don't understand it 2) It's the fault of people not believing in it hard enough
But I cannot see that being compelling for the person in the street suffering in a recession.
A recession is the least of the problems for people in the street.
Depression Decline and fall Junk credit ratings Authoritarianism Nuclear conflict Evaporating public services
The Yookay is entering the end game. A “recession” is a walk in the park compared to what’s about to happen.
We are now quite a poor country...many people just dont realise it yet. We have a current account deficit of 8.3% of gdp and a budget deficit of 4.8% of gdp with total debt to gdp nr 100%. There will now be massive drops in living standards for the majority of the population
Why are Tories always talking down the country? We're a rich country with 7 years of poor government.
On the upside, Liz Truss might have solved the Crisis of the Dinghy People as everyone now tries to get in a tiny inflatable boat at Dover and haphazardly sail to Boulogne
And will all be sent back after 90 days. Brexit keeps giving.
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I've long had this thought in mind, but I don't see how they get round Freedom of Movement in return for the SM and CU
That said, Labour might inherit such a desert that can do what they like
The next landing point could be that the UK can scrap the border paperwork by shadowing the EU's rules. The sort of thing RochdalePioneers has been pushing for a while- there's nowhere where it's worth diverging, so why put up the barriers that only make sense if we ever have different rules?
Utterly embarrasing for a large nation, but it has to be said that the UK government has a fair bit to be embarrased about at the moment. And it works as a something-for-something; the UK gets to veto FoM, but at the cost of not having input into other stuff and just following rules.
I don't think that sticks permanently, but it's better than where we are now. And whilst the Eurosceptic right will bellyache, they've burnt up a lot of credibility in the last week.
No, dream on
Political reality will not allow this. And Starmer knows this. There is no credible way pf packaging this policy which doesn't look humiliating and also electorally very risky, especially for a Remoaner Prime Minister
It's not going to happen. And - as I say - I wanted EEA/EFTA at least at first
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
What it might mean, though, is that the Labour vote share spikes (artificially) at the next GE and they take it as a firm mandate to do their own version of their hobby horse batshittery, with extreme Wokery and nannying.
They could come down again with a thud just as quick. But so be it.
Hopefully the quick suspension of Rupa Huq may point to a not-so-woke future?
Only if Labour de select her for the next GE
Huw was awful, I have no problem with deselecting her.
Let's hope too that Rob Roberts and Chris Pincher are also deselected for the next election
There's quite a few others - Webbe, Corbyn, 2 SNP, 1 Plaid, the guy in Somerton, Neil Coyle,
I picked out Roberts and Pincher specifically because they are back or remain in the Party fold. I think Webbe and certainly Corbyn, as I believe (although I may be wrong) the SNP and PC suspects are Independent now.
Huq was stupid with her outrageous comments, but a grovelling apology, proof of contrition and undergoing racial awareness training for her indiscretion seems like it could be redeemable. Corbyn's unrepentant anti -semitism on the other hand is wholly different and he is beyond redemption.
One or two posters are always keen to hang opposition figures like Starmer for his beer and curry indiscretion, Rayner for her "scum" comment, which was equally as offensive, although granted, not racially motivated, as Huq's,foolishness, and now Huq. These opposition politicians and their loose tongues are sometimes blamed for whipping up the sort of hatred that ended the lives of Cox and Sir David Amess.. I think such linkage devalues the criminality involved in both the Cox and Amess cases.
These posters, on the other hand are generally content to brush Rob Roberts, or Jamie Wallace, for example, under the carpet.
Whatever the truth of 'what caused the crash and the sudden rise in interest rates', the way things have worked out, it will forever be blamed by the public on the current government for their decision to borrow money to do a tax cut for the rich. It is spectacular political mismanagement.
Therese Coffey is Deputy PM. Worth getting on Coffey?
That is outstanding thought.
She is 46 on BF.
No way is that not value.
Chapeau.
I assume that the only way this happens is if the situation gets so bad Liz Truss stands aside *while* we're looking for a new permanent leader. Otherwise, though I shudder at saying this, wake up and smell the coffey
I think Starmer will be a very popular PM. Because he will look wonderful compared to what has gone before
Yes, he will, for about 3 weeks. Until he has to do the necessary
He hasn't got the charisma needed to be a severe doctor giving you enemas, like Thatcher. He's a tolerably dull hired consultant, with a weirdly squeaky pen, who will bore you from minute 10 and then deeply irritate you after a quarter of an hour and then you will want to murder him after 1 hour max
That's our political future
You’ve hated him since the day he was elected. So forgive me if I take your views with a giant grain of salt
I'm trying to spare you further psychic pain
Labour are going to be the next government: yay for you. You've waited long enough. But they will not be popular like Blair (or even early Cameron) because, events, facts, and general shiteness. They will be boring and loathed. Indeed I cannot see a single thing they can do which will be 1. affordable and 2. widely popular
If you can, do tell. I'd quite like to be cheered
Not be the Tories
A pleasing feeling which will last for about, ooh, a month. As I say
British voters have got used to their governments just forking out money so they can all stay home and eat sourdough and not catch the flu. It turns out this was a terrible policy which has screwed our finances (as elsewhere in the world) and also left everyone horribly complacent and entitled
This delusional world is now colliding with reality, in shattering style. We can't afford this crap. We can't afford a tax office which takes 8 months to process 2 documents because everyone is WFH and fancies a nap
It's over. Bitter reality is kicking in. Ask the Ukrainians
It's not clear if any of that would be happening if the government hadn't insisted on a big giveaway.
it's not the give-away it's the think of a number and click your heels approach to projecting future growth
@PickardJE former Chief Adviser at the Bank of England, Charles Goodhart, tells Times Radio: "You can say goodbye to growth over the period from now until the general election…”
Quelle surprise.
Seems pretty fatal for the government. How can they explain their pro-growth agenda leading to (or failing to prevent) the exact opposite occurring?
So far they seem to be saying
1) You just don't understand it 2) It's the fault of people not believing in it hard enough
But I cannot see that being compelling for the person in the street suffering in a recession.
A recession is the least of the problems for people in the street.
Depression Decline and fall Junk credit ratings Authoritarianism Nuclear conflict Evaporating public services
The Yookay is entering the end game. A “recession” is a walk in the park compared to what’s about to happen.
We are now quite a poor country...many people just dont realise it yet. We have a current account deficit of 8.3% of gdp and a budget deficit of 4.8% of gdp with total debt to gdp nr 100%. There will now be massive drops in living standards for the majority of the population
Why are Tories always talking down the country? We're a rich country with 7 years of poor government.
We're not as rich as we're currently pretending we are though. If we're to close the twin deficits, and make the necessary increases in business and infrastructure investment, it necessarily implies a considerable decline in consumption.
It's going to take a political leader of rare skill, and even rarer bravery, to bring the country with them through such a difficult adjustment.
It's true that making the country more equal will go some way to squaring this circle, but the size of the adjustment is so large that you still have to get the majority of the country to agree to sacrifice their personal short-term benefit for the long-term good of the country. It's a hard sell.
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I've long had this thought in mind, but I don't see how they get round Freedom of Movement in return for the SM and CU
That said, Labour might inherit such a desert that can do what they like
The next landing point could be that the UK can scrap the border paperwork by shadowing the EU's rules. The sort of thing RochdalePioneers has been pushing for a while- there's nowhere where it's worth diverging, so why put up the barriers that only make sense if we ever have different rules?
Utterly embarrasing for a large nation, but it has to be said that the UK government has a fair bit to be embarrased about at the moment. And it works as a something-for-something; the UK gets to veto FoM, but at the cost of not having input into other stuff and just following rules.
I don't think that sticks permanently, but it's better than where we are now. And whilst the Eurosceptic right will bellyache, they've burnt up a lot of credibility in the last week.
No, dream on
Political reality will not allow this. And Starmer knows this. There is no credible way pf packaging this policy which doesn't look humiliating and also electorally very risky, especially for a Remoaner Prime Minister
It's not going to happen. And - as I say - I wanted EEA/EFTA at least at first
I think wait and see how attractive the EU looks after the coming winter personally and how its big dogs treat the small ones. I suspect there wont be a big appetite to get on board
Called this earlier. Sensible Tory MPs in marginal seats should defect en masse. Labour is at its strongest as a broad church of the centre left, centre and liberal centre right.
They should make Labour earn the win, not hand it to them. Form a new party.
@PickardJE former Chief Adviser at the Bank of England, Charles Goodhart, tells Times Radio: "You can say goodbye to growth over the period from now until the general election…”
Quelle surprise.
Seems pretty fatal for the government. How can they explain their pro-growth agenda leading to (or failing to prevent) the exact opposite occurring?
So far they seem to be saying
1) You just don't understand it 2) It's the fault of people not believing in it hard enough
But I cannot see that being compelling for the person in the street suffering in a recession.
A recession is the least of the problems for people in the street.
Depression Decline and fall Junk credit ratings Authoritarianism Nuclear conflict Evaporating public services
The Yookay is entering the end game. A “recession” is a walk in the park compared to what’s about to happen.
We are now quite a poor country...many people just dont realise it yet. We have a current account deficit of 8.3% of gdp and a budget deficit of 4.8% of gdp with total debt to gdp nr 100%. There will now be massive drops in living standards for the majority of the population
Why are Tories always talking down the country? We're a rich country with 7 years of poor government.
We're not as rich as we're currently pretending we are though. If we're to close the twin deficits, and make the necessary increases in business and infrastructure investment, it necessarily implies a considerable decline in consumption.
It's going to take a political leader of rare skill, and even rarer bravery, to bring the country with them through such a difficult adjustment.
It's true that making the country more equal will go some way to squaring this circle, but the size of the adjustment is so large that you still have to get the majority of the country to agree to sacrifice their personal short-term benefit for the long-term good of the country. It's a hard sell.
Yes. It needs a Thatcher. That's where we are. And Thatcher had North Sea Oil, Privatisation (her own idea TBF) and the Falklands War, to see her through the electorally dangerous early years. And the £ bottomed out at $1.05 in 1985
Starmer is no Thatcher, nor does he want to be, he's just not capable
We are going to stagnate for a decade or more, unless events intervene
I was up in the mountains along the Carolina/Tennessee border this morning (the most beautiful part of the US I have so far discovered, as an aside), on a beautiful sunny if slightly cool day, but in the distance a wall of high cloud covering the southern horizon, in an otherwise cloudless sky, was visible. The leading edge of my Hurricane namesake.
This evening the cloud has edged over the town, and it's a little more windy. I suspect we've seen the last of good weather for this trip.
Tory increased their share of vote in that one by 1%. Should steady the ship. Not a bad poll for them to be going up despite the media narrative as backdrop when is was taken.
Are you being a Tory again? Your posts today have been bizarre
I take polling posts seriously, I wouldn’t say anything deliberately untrue, though I could make a mistake. double check my checking if you like.
Maybe a touch tongue in cheek, as that last poll I think was January. Though, on the other hand, it shows the firm does double digit leads and sub 30 Tories so are not a Kantor or Techne.
My other posts today are not bizarre, they are actually true, cutting through the hyperbole on here today if you listen to what I am saying.
What I am saying is really straightforward. The growth budget, with a couple of little ideological flourishes which have back fired, and the quarter of a trillion borrowing for Bill Freezing are actually two very different fiscal events, the chancellor has unwisely blurred together. The markets are not, IMF mostly not, attacking the growth budget - the growth budget isn’t a huge financial risk problem on its own. It is actually UK putting it out there we intend to borrow nearly a quarter of a trillion to freeze our consumers energy bills for a few years the markets are saying no to - the markets are saying no, we assess you are not in a great position to manage that size of largesse right now.
So the answer is really straightforward as well, and it doesn’t need cuts or tax rises (though interest rates are touch low maybe, and a tax contribution such as a windfall element would sweeten the markets) we just don’t borrow £200B and give half of it to people who don’t even need a hand out. We adjust the Bill Freezing plan.
Simples.
Any questions?
That's completely arse about face. The Chancellor promised growth with a range of measures that won't deliver growth. The energy stuff has been known about for weeks.
To answer your question, because I know you will see the logic of my argument about what triggered the market so what needed to calm it - There’s an element I think where international economists like the IMF and the markets have not been doing their jobs properly by not reacting sooner to UKs unnecessary quarter trillion loan for hand outs madness. Was it the mourning period? The markets waiting on last Friday before acting, in hope of more detail and more reassurance, announce different things last Friday about size of borrowing and how it’s to be financed.
The chancellor actually surprised them with more tax cuts, not the tax take they preferred; never a clever thing to surprise markets already volatile with unexpected bad news. That finally triggered it. But I am right, the elephant in the room is the quarter trillion loan for handouts markets acting on, the growth budget bits on their own the markets and IMF would not act like this.
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
Believe all of that if you like.
The Brexiteers are trashing their own project. We are witnessing the right-wing version of Brexit being played out before our very eyes and I expect many leavers in the North and Midlands are as appalled at what they are seeing as the Remain half of the country.
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I've long had this thought in mind, but I don't see how they get round Freedom of Movement in return for the SM and CU
That said, Labour might inherit such a desert that can do what they like
The next landing point could be that the UK can scrap the border paperwork by shadowing the EU's rules. The sort of thing RochdalePioneers has been pushing for a while- there's nowhere where it's worth diverging, so why put up the barriers that only make sense if we ever have different rules?
Utterly embarrasing for a large nation, but it has to be said that the UK government has a fair bit to be embarrased about at the moment. And it works as a something-for-something; the UK gets to veto FoM, but at the cost of not having input into other stuff and just following rules.
I don't think that sticks permanently, but it's better than where we are now. And whilst the Eurosceptic right will bellyache, they've burnt up a lot of credibility in the last week.
No, dream on
Political reality will not allow this. And Starmer knows this. There is no credible way pf packaging this policy which doesn't look humiliating and also electorally very risky, especially for a Remoaner Prime Minister
It's not going to happen. And - as I say - I wanted EEA/EFTA at least at first
I think wait and see how attractive the EU looks after the coming winter personally and how its big dogs treat the small ones. I suspect there wont be a big appetite to get on board
Yes, it is quite possible the EU is going to fracture badly under the multiple pressures of war, energy shortage, inflation, recession, East Orban versus West Macron, etc. And now we have Giorgia Meloni to add to the mix
Quite feasible the EU will look as fucked as the UK, or worse, by next spring
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I've long had this thought in mind, but I don't see how they get round Freedom of Movement in return for the SM and CU
That said, Labour might inherit such a desert that can do what they like
The next landing point could be that the UK can scrap the border paperwork by shadowing the EU's rules. The sort of thing RochdalePioneers has been pushing for a while- there's nowhere where it's worth diverging, so why put up the barriers that only make sense if we ever have different rules?
Utterly embarrasing for a large nation, but it has to be said that the UK government has a fair bit to be embarrased about at the moment. And it works as a something-for-something; the UK gets to veto FoM, but at the cost of not having input into other stuff and just following rules.
I don't think that sticks permanently, but it's better than where we are now. And whilst the Eurosceptic right will bellyache, they've burnt up a lot of credibility in the last week.
No, dream on
Political reality will not allow this. And Starmer knows this. There is no credible way pf packaging this policy which doesn't look humiliating and also electorally very risky, especially for a Remoaner Prime Minister
It's not going to happen. And - as I say - I wanted EEA/EFTA at least at first
Humiliation is where we are headed. There's an iceberg with 'national humiliation' lit up in neon lights on the top of it, and Loopy Liz has turned the national ship directly toward it, to take a closer look...
(and there isn't anything you haven't wanted, at least briefly)
Tory increased their share of vote in that one by 1%. Should steady the ship. Not a bad poll for them to be going up despite the media narrative as backdrop when is was taken.
Are you being a Tory again? Your posts today have been bizarre
I take polling posts seriously, I wouldn’t say anything deliberately untrue, though I could make a mistake. double check my checking if you like.
Maybe a touch tongue in cheek, as that last poll I think was January. Though, on the other hand, it shows the firm does double digit leads and sub 30 Tories so are not a Kantor or Techne.
My other posts today are not bizarre, they are actually true, cutting through the hyperbole on here today if you listen to what I am saying.
What I am saying is really straightforward. The growth budget, with a couple of little ideological flourishes which have back fired, and the quarter of a trillion borrowing for Bill Freezing are actually two very different fiscal events, the chancellor has unwisely blurred together. The markets are not, IMF mostly not, attacking the growth budget - the growth budget isn’t a huge financial risk problem on its own. It is actually UK putting it out there we intend to borrow nearly a quarter of a trillion to freeze our consumers energy bills for a few years the markets are saying no to - the markets are saying no, we assess you are not in a great position to manage that size of largesse right now.
So the answer is really straightforward as well, and it doesn’t need cuts or tax rises (though interest rates are touch low maybe, and a tax contribution such as a windfall element would sweeten the markets) we just don’t borrow £200B and give half of it to people who don’t even need a hand out. We adjust the Bill Freezing plan.
Simples.
Any questions?
That's completely arse about face. The Chancellor promised growth with a range of measures that won't deliver growth. The energy stuff has been known about for weeks.
To answer your question, because I know you will see the logic of my argument about what triggered the market so what needed to calm it - There’s an element I think where international economists like the IMF and the markets have not been doing their jobs properly by not reacting sooner to UKs unnecessary quarter trillion loan for hand outs madness. Was it the mourning period? The markets waiting on last Friday before acting, in hope of more detail and more reassurance, announce different things last Friday about size of borrowing and how it’s to be financed.
The chancellor actually surprised them with more tax cuts, not the tax take they preferred; never a clever thing to surprise markets already volatile with unexpected bad news. That finally triggered it. But I am right, the elephant in the room is the quarter trillion loan for handouts markets acting on, the growth budget bits on their own the markets and IMF would not act like this.
Time to acknowledge that elephant in the room.
repeating the same point again and again and again doesn't make it any more correct
Called this earlier. Sensible Tory MPs in marginal seats should defect en masse. Labour is at its strongest as a broad church of the centre left, centre and liberal centre right.
They should make Labour earn the win, not hand it to them. Form a new party.
Why?
Because Labour have not shown themselves to be the solution yet. They need to set out how they will turn this around. Be the adults and move beyond 'not the Tories'
It's possible/likely that the market turmoil of the past few days will be overshadowed by something much bigger somewhere else that will fundamentally change how it is perceived. The UK could be the canary in the coal mine in the same way that BNP Paribas was at the beginning of the subprime crisis in 2007.
Peston @itvpeston · 1h "I'm not going to make policy commitments on live TV"
Chief Secretary to the Treasury @CPhilpOfficial confirms to @Peston that the government has not decided if benefits will be upgraded in line with inflation this Autumn.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
One can only imagine what the average Tory MP’s postbag looks like at the moment.
Largely empty, given the postal workers' strike. Emails, though.....
It's possible/likely that the market turmoil of the past few days will be overshadowed by something much bigger somewhere else that will fundamentally change how it is perceived. The UK could be the canary in the coal mine in the same way that BNP Paribas was at the beginning of the subprime crisis in 2007.
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I've long had this thought in mind, but I don't see how they get round Freedom of Movement in return for the SM and CU
That said, Labour might inherit such a desert that can do what they like
The next landing point could be that the UK can scrap the border paperwork by shadowing the EU's rules. The sort of thing RochdalePioneers has been pushing for a while- there's nowhere where it's worth diverging, so why put up the barriers that only make sense if we ever have different rules?
Utterly embarrasing for a large nation, but it has to be said that the UK government has a fair bit to be embarrased about at the moment. And it works as a something-for-something; the UK gets to veto FoM, but at the cost of not having input into other stuff and just following rules.
I don't think that sticks permanently, but it's better than where we are now. And whilst the Eurosceptic right will bellyache, they've burnt up a lot of credibility in the last week.
No, dream on
Political reality will not allow this. And Starmer knows this. There is no credible way pf packaging this policy which doesn't look humiliating and also electorally very risky, especially for a Remoaner Prime Minister
It's not going to happen. And - as I say - I wanted EEA/EFTA at least at first
I think wait and see how attractive the EU looks after the coming winter personally and how its big dogs treat the small ones. I suspect there wont be a big appetite to get on board
Yes, it is quite possible the EU is going to fracture badly under the multiple pressures of war, energy shortage, inflation, recession, East Orban versus West Macron, etc. And now we have Giorgia Meloni to add to the mix
Quite feasible the EU will look as fucked as the UK, or worse, by next spring
Quite. SS Euroscooby is heading for the iceberg. 1.25% base rate. So fucked.
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I've long had this thought in mind, but I don't see how they get round Freedom of Movement in return for the SM and CU
That said, Labour might inherit such a desert that can do what they like
The next landing point could be that the UK can scrap the border paperwork by shadowing the EU's rules. The sort of thing RochdalePioneers has been pushing for a while- there's nowhere where it's worth diverging, so why put up the barriers that only make sense if we ever have different rules?
Utterly embarrasing for a large nation, but it has to be said that the UK government has a fair bit to be embarrased about at the moment. And it works as a something-for-something; the UK gets to veto FoM, but at the cost of not having input into other stuff and just following rules.
I don't think that sticks permanently, but it's better than where we are now. And whilst the Eurosceptic right will bellyache, they've burnt up a lot of credibility in the last week.
No, dream on
Political reality will not allow this. And Starmer knows this. There is no credible way pf packaging this policy which doesn't look humiliating and also electorally very risky, especially for a Remoaner Prime Minister
It's not going to happen. And - as I say - I wanted EEA/EFTA at least at first
Humiliation is where we are headed. There's an iceberg with 'national humiliation' lit up in neon lights on the top of it, and Loopy Liz has turned the national ship directly toward it, to take a closer look...
We are headed for some nasty reefs, but we certainly won't be alone - which will dilute the shame
Hard to say how it will play out in the end. If Putin goes nuclear then all this might seem quite trivial
Therese Coffey is Deputy PM. Worth getting on Coffey?
That is outstanding thought.
She is 46 on BF.
No way is that not value.
Chapeau.
Ben Wallace on 38 too.
If Truss is defenestrated then there will be very likely a coronation of one of those two. I don't see value on Johnson.
Wasn’t Coffey one if the inner circle who gave us Truss ? Not worth the bet, IMO. If Truss gets the boot, and she ought to within a week if there is any sense left in the Tory party, there isn’t time for an election, so no useful chance for trading bets.
All they had to do was pick someone with their head screwed on right.
One job, and all that....
Tonight's dinner in the US, here in Asheville, is going to cost me the best part of £100. But I'm beyond caring; I'll enjoy the last week because the way things are going I won't be able to afford to come again.
If I had to live in the US, Asheville is my choice.
That's a lot of bunk! Or rather, bunc!
As in Buncombe County, of which Asheville is the county seat.
from wiki
In 1820, a U.S. Congressman whose district included Buncombe County, unintentionally contributed a word to the English language. In the Sixteenth Congress, after lengthy debate on the Missouri Compromise, members of the House called for an immediate vote on that important question.
Felix Walker rose to address his colleagues, insisting that his constituents expected him to make a speech "for Buncombe." It was later remarked that Walker's untimely and irrelevant oration was not just for Buncombe—it "was Buncombe."
Buncombe, afterwards spelled bunkum and later shortened to bunk, became a term for empty, nonsensical talk. This, in turn, is the etymology of the verb debunk.
It's possible/likely that the market turmoil of the past few days will be overshadowed by something much bigger somewhere else that will fundamentally change how it is perceived. The UK could be the canary in the coal mine in the same way that BNP Paribas was at the beginning of the subprime crisis in 2007.
This is a possibility, yes. The contagion is out there. Edit - although the damage to the Conservatives is baked in somewhat now
Pentagon budget realignment files are a magnificent source of info about what the US military is up to, what classified programs US Special Operations Command runs in Ukraine, and what equipment has been sent to Ukraine. https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1574606905363898387
Yes, I'm watching Frozen Planet 3! With those macaques in the hot springs
It is now showing the famous flamingo lake in the high Atacama in Bolivia. I have been to that lake. It is truly wonderful. Bolivia is wonderfully mad. God I miss travel, I haven't been abroad for several weeks
SPAD: Prime Minister, it seems that many voters have taken your pledge to give bankers more of a bonus and to cut taxes for those who earn more than £150K quite badly. They think you are taking from the rest of us to give to the rich.
PM Truss: Fuck 'em. Let's take from the near destitute and give that to the rich.
It's possible/likely that the market turmoil of the past few days will be overshadowed by something much bigger somewhere else that will fundamentally change how it is perceived. The UK could be the canary in the coal mine in the same way that BNP Paribas was at the beginning of the subprime crisis in 2007.
@PickardJE former Chief Adviser at the Bank of England, Charles Goodhart, tells Times Radio: "You can say goodbye to growth over the period from now until the general election…”
Quelle surprise.
Seems pretty fatal for the government. How can they explain their pro-growth agenda leading to (or failing to prevent) the exact opposite occurring?
So far they seem to be saying
1) You just don't understand it 2) It's the fault of people not believing in it hard enough
But I cannot see that being compelling for the person in the street suffering in a recession.
A recession is the least of the problems for people in the street.
Depression Decline and fall Junk credit ratings Authoritarianism Nuclear conflict Evaporating public services
The Yookay is entering the end game. A “recession” is a walk in the park compared to what’s about to happen.
We are now quite a poor country...many people just dont realise it yet. We have a current account deficit of 8.3% of gdp and a budget deficit of 4.8% of gdp with total debt to gdp nr 100%. There will now be massive drops in living standards for the majority of the population
Why are Tories always talking down the country? We're a rich country with 7 years of poor government.
We're not as rich as we're currently pretending we are though. If we're to close the twin deficits, and make the necessary increases in business and infrastructure investment, it necessarily implies a considerable decline in consumption.
It's going to take a political leader of rare skill, and even rarer bravery, to bring the country with them through such a difficult adjustment.
It's true that making the country more equal will go some way to squaring this circle, but the size of the adjustment is so large that you still have to get the majority of the country to agree to sacrifice their personal short-term benefit for the long-term good of the country. It's a hard sell.
Yes. It needs a Thatcher. That's where we are. And Thatcher had North Sea Oil, Privatisation (her own idea TBF) and the Falklands War, to see her through the electorally dangerous early years. And the £ bottomed out at $1.05 in 1985
Starmer is no Thatcher, nor does he want to be, he's just not capable
We are going to stagnate for a decade or more, unless events intervene
Thatcher only got in in 1979 of course after 9 years of a failing Heath and then Labour government with strikes, rubbish uncollected, nationalised industry and rampant inflation
Therese Coffey is Deputy PM. Worth getting on Coffey?
That is outstanding thought.
She is 46 on BF.
No way is that not value.
Chapeau.
Ben Wallace on 38 too.
If Truss is defenestrated then there will be very likely a coronation of one of those two. I don't see value on Johnson.
This is the Conservative Party you are talking about. The worse the situation gets the louder the clamour from within the party for (a safe pair of hands, the man who got Brexit done, defeated COVID and Putin) Johnson's resurrection. I am not unconvinced that the voters might agree. Hopefully not enough of them for the barsteward to get re-elected.
SPAD: Prime Minister, it seems that many voters have taken your pledge to give bankers more of a bonus and to cut taxes for those who earn more than £150K quite badly. They think you are taking from the rest of us to give to the rich.
PM Truss: Fuck 'em. Let's take from the near destitute and give that to the rich.
SPAD: As you wish madam.
I mean its inane. We are going for growth but we are cutting benefits to ensure no poor people see any of it if it even happens. And public services can fuck right off too, growth isn't for them.
@PickardJE former Chief Adviser at the Bank of England, Charles Goodhart, tells Times Radio: "You can say goodbye to growth over the period from now until the general election…”
Quelle surprise.
Seems pretty fatal for the government. How can they explain their pro-growth agenda leading to (or failing to prevent) the exact opposite occurring?
So far they seem to be saying
1) You just don't understand it 2) It's the fault of people not believing in it hard enough
But I cannot see that being compelling for the person in the street suffering in a recession.
A recession is the least of the problems for people in the street.
Depression Decline and fall Junk credit ratings Authoritarianism Nuclear conflict Evaporating public services
The Yookay is entering the end game. A “recession” is a walk in the park compared to what’s about to happen.
We are now quite a poor country...many people just dont realise it yet. We have a current account deficit of 8.3% of gdp and a budget deficit of 4.8% of gdp with total debt to gdp nr 100%. There will now be massive drops in living standards for the majority of the population
Why are Tories always talking down the country? We're a rich country with 7 years of poor government.
We're not as rich as we're currently pretending we are though. If we're to close the twin deficits, and make the necessary increases in business and infrastructure investment, it necessarily implies a considerable decline in consumption.
It's going to take a political leader of rare skill, and even rarer bravery, to bring the country with them through such a difficult adjustment.
It's true that making the country more equal will go some way to squaring this circle, but the size of the adjustment is so large that you still have to get the majority of the country to agree to sacrifice their personal short-term benefit for the long-term good of the country. It's a hard sell.
Yes. It needs a Thatcher. That's where we are. And Thatcher had North Sea Oil, Privatisation (her own idea TBF) and the Falklands War, to see her through the electorally dangerous early years. And the £ bottomed out at $1.05 in 1985
Starmer is no Thatcher, nor does he want to be, he's just not capable
We are going to stagnate for a decade or more, unless events intervene
Thatcher only got in in 1979 of course after 9 years of a failing Heath and then Labour government with strikes, rubbish uncollected, nationalised industry and rampant inflation
People arr nowhere near ready for a thatcher yet...starmer will likely be akin to callaghan
Or perhaps the crisis will just be a logical extension of the current dynamic - the dollar could just get a whole lot stronger than it is currently, relative to pretty much all other currencies.
I was up in the mountains along the Carolina/Tennessee border this morning (the most beautiful part of the US I have so far discovered, as an aside), on a beautiful sunny if slightly cool day, but in the distance a wall of high cloud covering the southern horizon, in an otherwise cloudless sky, was visible. The leading edge of my Hurricane namesake.
This evening the cloud has edged over the town, and it's a little more windy. I suspect we've seen the last of good weather for this trip.
Sounds like a magnificent sight. That is a remarkable part of the world, which can be seen (for example) via the Blue Ridge Parkway.
IF you make it to Gatlinburg, say "hey" to Dolly!
Re: the weather, hurricane storm tracks can end up heading northeast along Eastern Seaboard, OR they can head north or even northwest into Upper South and Midwest. Could be a SERIOUS problem for someone beyond the State of Florida in a few days. NOT storm surge (unless you're on a lake) but rather heavy rain, which can be amplified by mountain terrain.
It's possible/likely that the market turmoil of the past few days will be overshadowed by something much bigger somewhere else that will fundamentally change how it is perceived. The UK could be the canary in the coal mine in the same way that BNP Paribas was at the beginning of the subprime crisis in 2007.
A global sovereign debt crisis is possible…
Correct. The UK is the first domino in a much larger chain of events. What happens next - who knows?
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I've long had this thought in mind, but I don't see how they get round Freedom of Movement in return for the SM and CU
That said, Labour might inherit such a desert that can do what they like
The next landing point could be that the UK can scrap the border paperwork by shadowing the EU's rules. The sort of thing RochdalePioneers has been pushing for a while- there's nowhere where it's worth diverging, so why put up the barriers that only make sense if we ever have different rules?
Utterly embarrasing for a large nation, but it has to be said that the UK government has a fair bit to be embarrased about at the moment. And it works as a something-for-something; the UK gets to veto FoM, but at the cost of not having input into other stuff and just following rules.
I don't think that sticks permanently, but it's better than where we are now. And whilst the Eurosceptic right will bellyache, they've burnt up a lot of credibility in the last week.
No, dream on
Political reality will not allow this. And Starmer knows this. There is no credible way pf packaging this policy which doesn't look humiliating and also electorally very risky, especially for a Remoaner Prime Minister
It's not going to happen. And - as I say - I wanted EEA/EFTA at least at first
Humiliation is where we are headed. There's an iceberg with 'national humiliation' lit up in neon lights on the top of it, and Loopy Liz has turned the national ship directly toward it, to take a closer look...
We are headed for some nasty reefs, but we certainly won't be alone - which will dilute the shame
Hard to say how it will play out in the end. If Putin goes nuclear then all this might seem quite trivial
Hopefully while I am mid-Atlantic. They carry a lot of food on that ship (the QM2 is the world's single biggest consumer of caviar, for a start) and i reckon we can hold out for a while, and go out in style.
Therese Coffey is Deputy PM. Worth getting on Coffey?
That is outstanding thought.
She is 46 on BF.
No way is that not value.
Chapeau.
Ben Wallace on 38 too.
If Truss is defenestrated then there will be very likely a coronation of one of those two. I don't see value on Johnson.
This is the Conservative Party you are talking about. The worse the situation gets the louder the clamour from within the party for (a safe pair of hands, the man who got Brexit done, defeated COVID and Putin) Johnson's resurrection. I am not unconvinced that the voters might agree. Hopefully not enough of them for the barsteward to get re-elected.
Things end up so shit that parties, Paterson etc seem irrelevant and Ronnie Redwall just wants his Bozza Bear back
@PickardJE former Chief Adviser at the Bank of England, Charles Goodhart, tells Times Radio: "You can say goodbye to growth over the period from now until the general election…”
Quelle surprise.
Seems pretty fatal for the government. How can they explain their pro-growth agenda leading to (or failing to prevent) the exact opposite occurring?
So far they seem to be saying
1) You just don't understand it 2) It's the fault of people not believing in it hard enough
But I cannot see that being compelling for the person in the street suffering in a recession.
A recession is the least of the problems for people in the street.
Depression Decline and fall Junk credit ratings Authoritarianism Nuclear conflict Evaporating public services
The Yookay is entering the end game. A “recession” is a walk in the park compared to what’s about to happen.
We are now quite a poor country...many people just dont realise it yet. We have a current account deficit of 8.3% of gdp and a budget deficit of 4.8% of gdp with total debt to gdp nr 100%. There will now be massive drops in living standards for the majority of the population
Why are Tories always talking down the country? We're a rich country with 7 years of poor government.
We're not as rich as we're currently pretending we are though. If we're to close the twin deficits, and make the necessary increases in business and infrastructure investment, it necessarily implies a considerable decline in consumption.
It's going to take a political leader of rare skill, and even rarer bravery, to bring the country with them through such a difficult adjustment.
It's true that making the country more equal will go some way to squaring this circle, but the size of the adjustment is so large that you still have to get the majority of the country to agree to sacrifice their personal short-term benefit for the long-term good of the country. It's a hard sell.
Yes. It needs a Thatcher. That's where we are. And Thatcher had North Sea Oil, Privatisation (her own idea TBF) and the Falklands War, to see her through the electorally dangerous early years. And the £ bottomed out at $1.05 in 1985
Starmer is no Thatcher, nor does he want to be, he's just not capable
We are going to stagnate for a decade or more, unless events intervene
Thatcher only got in in 1979 of course after 9 years of a failing Heath and then Labour government with strikes, rubbish uncollected, nationalised industry and rampant inflation
We have spent the last 30 years squandering the inheritance from Thatcher (and both parties have done this). We're like a family spunking the money made by some hard-working selfmade patriarch, and we've spaffed it all on mediocre hookers and dodgy blow
To be fair to us, the Germans have done the same from their own reforms. The Italians never reformed at all
Therese Coffey is Deputy PM. Worth getting on Coffey?
That is outstanding thought.
She is 46 on BF.
No way is that not value.
Chapeau.
Ben Wallace on 38 too.
If Truss is defenestrated then there will be very likely a coronation of one of those two. I don't see value on Johnson.
Wasn’t Coffey one if the inner circle who gave us Truss ? Not worth the bet, IMO. If Truss gets the boot, and she ought to within a week if there is any sense left in the Tory party, there isn’t time for an election, so no useful chance for trading bets.
Had a small dabble on Wallace.
Wallace didn't want it last time. He wasn't just pretending to not want it, he could've gone for it and would have had much support. I don't think he's value until he's past 50. The ones who actually stood last time seem more likely, so Sunak, Mordaunt, Badenoch, Tugendhat. But you probably also want someone who's not politically aligned to Truss. You want someone who correctly predicted Truss's mistake (so Sunak) or is a different flavour of Conservatism. Badenoch would be more of the same in terms of economic policy.
But I don't think anything's happening soon. The party isn't going to have a coronation when they can't agree on who to coronate. The MPs are pissed off, but they're not trying to mount a coup. Kwarteng could be for the block, but I think Truss hangs on until an election.
@PickardJE former Chief Adviser at the Bank of England, Charles Goodhart, tells Times Radio: "You can say goodbye to growth over the period from now until the general election…”
Quelle surprise.
Seems pretty fatal for the government. How can they explain their pro-growth agenda leading to (or failing to prevent) the exact opposite occurring?
So far they seem to be saying
1) You just don't understand it 2) It's the fault of people not believing in it hard enough
But I cannot see that being compelling for the person in the street suffering in a recession.
A recession is the least of the problems for people in the street.
Depression Decline and fall Junk credit ratings Authoritarianism Nuclear conflict Evaporating public services
The Yookay is entering the end game. A “recession” is a walk in the park compared to what’s about to happen.
We are now quite a poor country...many people just dont realise it yet. We have a current account deficit of 8.3% of gdp and a budget deficit of 4.8% of gdp with total debt to gdp nr 100%. There will now be massive drops in living standards for the majority of the population
Why are Tories always talking down the country? We're a rich country with 7 years of poor government.
We're not as rich as we're currently pretending we are though. If we're to close the twin deficits, and make the necessary increases in business and infrastructure investment, it necessarily implies a considerable decline in consumption.
It's going to take a political leader of rare skill, and even rarer bravery, to bring the country with them through such a difficult adjustment.
It's true that making the country more equal will go some way to squaring this circle, but the size of the adjustment is so large that you still have to get the majority of the country to agree to sacrifice their personal short-term benefit for the long-term good of the country. It's a hard sell.
Yes. It needs a Thatcher. That's where we are. And Thatcher had North Sea Oil, Privatisation (her own idea TBF) and the Falklands War, to see her through the electorally dangerous early years. And the £ bottomed out at $1.05 in 1985
Starmer is no Thatcher, nor does he want to be, he's just not capable
We are going to stagnate for a decade or more, unless events intervene
Thatcher only got in in 1979 of course after 9 years of a failing Heath and then Labour government with strikes, rubbish uncollected, nationalised industry and rampant inflation
We have spent the last 30 years squandering the inheritance from Thatcher (and both parties have done this). We're like a family spunking the money made by some hard-working selfmade patriarch, and we've spaffed it all on mediocre hookers and dodgy blow
To be fair to us, the Germans have done the same from their own reforms. The Italians never reformed at all
Europe as a whole is living on tick
The US too, but they have “exorbitant privilege”, a deep single market, and cheap energy.
All they had to do was pick someone with their head screwed on right.
One job, and all that....
Tonight's dinner in the US, here in Asheville, is going to cost me the best part of £100. But I'm beyond caring; I'll enjoy the last week because the way things are going I won't be able to afford to come again.
If I had to live in the US, Asheville is my choice.
That's a lot of bunk! Or rather, bunc!
As in Buncombe County, of which Asheville is the county seat.
from wiki
In 1820, a U.S. Congressman whose district included Buncombe County, unintentionally contributed a word to the English language. In the Sixteenth Congress, after lengthy debate on the Missouri Compromise, members of the House called for an immediate vote on that important question.
Felix Walker rose to address his colleagues, insisting that his constituents expected him to make a speech "for Buncombe." It was later remarked that Walker's untimely and irrelevant oration was not just for Buncombe—it "was Buncombe."
Buncombe, afterwards spelled bunkum and later shortened to bunk, became a term for empty, nonsensical talk. This, in turn, is the etymology of the verb debunk.
Well, I love Asheville!
How much can we read into US county names? Yesterday I was hiking in Translyvania County. Last week I passed through Isle of Wight County - and it isn't even an island (and only had a little bit of coast, beyond all the peanut farms).
Tory increased their share of vote in that one by 1%. Should steady the ship. Not a bad poll for them to be going up despite the media narrative as backdrop when is was taken.
Are you being a Tory again? Your posts today have been bizarre
I take polling posts seriously, I wouldn’t say anything deliberately untrue, though I could make a mistake. double check my checking if you like.
Maybe a touch tongue in cheek, as that last poll I think was January. Though, on the other hand, it shows the firm does double digit leads and sub 30 Tories so are not a Kantor or Techne.
My other posts today are not bizarre, they are actually true, cutting through the hyperbole on here today if you listen to what I am saying.
What I am saying is really straightforward. The growth budget, with a couple of little ideological flourishes which have back fired, and the quarter of a trillion borrowing for Bill Freezing are actually two very different fiscal events, the chancellor has unwisely blurred together. The markets are not, IMF mostly not, attacking the growth budget - the growth budget isn’t a huge financial risk problem on its own. It is actually UK putting it out there we intend to borrow nearly a quarter of a trillion to freeze our consumers energy bills for a few years the markets are saying no to - the markets are saying no, we assess you are not in a great position to manage that size of largesse right now.
So the answer is really straightforward as well, and it doesn’t need cuts or tax rises (though interest rates are touch low maybe, and a tax contribution such as a windfall element would sweeten the markets) we just don’t borrow £200B and give half of it to people who don’t even need a hand out. We adjust the Bill Freezing plan.
Simples.
Any questions?
That's completely arse about face. The Chancellor promised growth with a range of measures that won't deliver growth. The energy stuff has been known about for weeks.
To answer your question, because I know you will see the logic of my argument about what triggered the market so what needed to calm it - There’s an element I think where international economists like the IMF and the markets have not been doing their jobs properly by not reacting sooner to UKs unnecessary quarter trillion loan for hand outs madness. Was it the mourning period? The markets waiting on last Friday before acting, in hope of more detail and more reassurance, announce different things last Friday about size of borrowing and how it’s to be financed.
The chancellor actually surprised them with more tax cuts, not the tax take they preferred; never a clever thing to surprise markets already volatile with unexpected bad news. That finally triggered it. But I am right, the elephant in the room is the quarter trillion loan for handouts markets acting on, the growth budget bits on their own the markets and IMF would not act like this.
Time to acknowledge that elephant in the room.
repeating the same point again and again and again doesn't make it any more correct
What do you think triggered the markets then, if not how I just explained 🙂
My guess is that this government of Brexit extremists is going to end up making it a whole lot easier for Labour to forge a much closer relationship with the EU if it wins the next election. We won’t rejoin, but we’ll end up very closely aligned. Whatever is said in public now, that’s what will happen. And most voters will be fine with it.
I've long had this thought in mind, but I don't see how they get round Freedom of Movement in return for the SM and CU
That said, Labour might inherit such a desert that can do what they like
The next landing point could be that the UK can scrap the border paperwork by shadowing the EU's rules. The sort of thing RochdalePioneers has been pushing for a while- there's nowhere where it's worth diverging, so why put up the barriers that only make sense if we ever have different rules?
Utterly embarrasing for a large nation, but it has to be said that the UK government has a fair bit to be embarrased about at the moment. And it works as a something-for-something; the UK gets to veto FoM, but at the cost of not having input into other stuff and just following rules.
I don't think that sticks permanently, but it's better than where we are now. And whilst the Eurosceptic right will bellyache, they've burnt up a lot of credibility in the last week.
No, dream on
Political reality will not allow this. And Starmer knows this. There is no credible way pf packaging this policy which doesn't look humiliating and also electorally very risky, especially for a Remoaner Prime Minister
It's not going to happen. And - as I say - I wanted EEA/EFTA at least at first
Humiliation is where we are headed. There's an iceberg with 'national humiliation' lit up in neon lights on the top of it, and Loopy Liz has turned the national ship directly toward it, to take a closer look...
We are headed for some nasty reefs, but we certainly won't be alone - which will dilute the shame
Hard to say how it will play out in the end. If Putin goes nuclear then all this might seem quite trivial
Hopefully while I am mid-Atlantic. They carry a lot of food on that ship (the QM2 is the world's single biggest consumer of caviar, for a start) and i reckon we can hold out for a while, and go out in style.
I have a vision in my mind of IanB2 in the Queen’s Grill after eight weeks of fallout, as the chefs try to make something presentable of sprouting potatoes and bacon scraps. But the best silver!
It's possible/likely that the market turmoil of the past few days will be overshadowed by something much bigger somewhere else that will fundamentally change how it is perceived. The UK could be the canary in the coal mine in the same way that BNP Paribas was at the beginning of the subprime crisis in 2007.
A global sovereign debt crisis is possible…
Correct. The UK is the first domino in a much larger chain of events. What happens next - who knows?
Voting with their feet (and cars and bicycles): "The latest wave of Russian exiles since the war began in February has seen military-aged men pour into the Caucasus country -- by cars in a column stretching for some 20 kilometres, by bicycles and some walking kilometres by foot to the border crossing.
Just saw a France24 news story that estimated that 200K young Russian men had fled -- so far.
The journalists found some Putin supporters who were still fleeing, for example, Igor: "But personally, I can't go to the war because I am the sole breadwinner in the family and I've got that bloody mortgage."
@PickardJE former Chief Adviser at the Bank of England, Charles Goodhart, tells Times Radio: "You can say goodbye to growth over the period from now until the general election…”
Quelle surprise.
Seems pretty fatal for the government. How can they explain their pro-growth agenda leading to (or failing to prevent) the exact opposite occurring?
So far they seem to be saying
1) You just don't understand it 2) It's the fault of people not believing in it hard enough
But I cannot see that being compelling for the person in the street suffering in a recession.
A recession is the least of the problems for people in the street.
Depression Decline and fall Junk credit ratings Authoritarianism Nuclear conflict Evaporating public services
The Yookay is entering the end game. A “recession” is a walk in the park compared to what’s about to happen.
We are now quite a poor country...many people just dont realise it yet. We have a current account deficit of 8.3% of gdp and a budget deficit of 4.8% of gdp with total debt to gdp nr 100%. There will now be massive drops in living standards for the majority of the population
Why are Tories always talking down the country? We're a rich country with 7 years of poor government.
We're not as rich as we're currently pretending we are though. If we're to close the twin deficits, and make the necessary increases in business and infrastructure investment, it necessarily implies a considerable decline in consumption.
It's going to take a political leader of rare skill, and even rarer bravery, to bring the country with them through such a difficult adjustment.
It's true that making the country more equal will go some way to squaring this circle, but the size of the adjustment is so large that you still have to get the majority of the country to agree to sacrifice their personal short-term benefit for the long-term good of the country. It's a hard sell.
Yes. It needs a Thatcher. That's where we are. And Thatcher had North Sea Oil, Privatisation (her own idea TBF) and the Falklands War, to see her through the electorally dangerous early years. And the £ bottomed out at $1.05 in 1985
Starmer is no Thatcher, nor does he want to be, he's just not capable
We are going to stagnate for a decade or more, unless events intervene
Thatcher only got in in 1979 of course after 9 years of a failing Heath and then Labour government with strikes, rubbish uncollected, nationalised industry and rampant inflation
We have spent the last 30 years squandering the inheritance from Thatcher (and both parties have done this). We're like a family spunking the money made by some hard-working selfmade patriarch, and we've spaffed it all on mediocre hookers and dodgy blow
To be fair to us, the Germans have done the same from their own reforms. The Italians never reformed at all
Europe as a whole is living on tick
Thatch squandered N Sea oil revenue on unemployment benefit.
Or perhaps the crisis will just be a logical extension of the current dynamic - the dollar could just get a whole lot stronger than it is currently, relative to pretty much all other currencies.
£ & € = $0.50 anyone?
The difficulties the Fed is having in selling Treasury bonds suggests not
"‘Volatility vortex’ slams into $24tn US government bond market"
Called this earlier. Sensible Tory MPs in marginal seats should defect en masse. Labour is at its strongest as a broad church of the centre left, centre and liberal centre right.
They should make Labour earn the win, not hand it to them. Form a new party.
@PickardJE former Chief Adviser at the Bank of England, Charles Goodhart, tells Times Radio: "You can say goodbye to growth over the period from now until the general election…”
Quelle surprise.
Seems pretty fatal for the government. How can they explain their pro-growth agenda leading to (or failing to prevent) the exact opposite occurring?
So far they seem to be saying
1) You just don't understand it 2) It's the fault of people not believing in it hard enough
But I cannot see that being compelling for the person in the street suffering in a recession.
A recession is the least of the problems for people in the street.
Depression Decline and fall Junk credit ratings Authoritarianism Nuclear conflict Evaporating public services
The Yookay is entering the end game. A “recession” is a walk in the park compared to what’s about to happen.
We are now quite a poor country...many people just dont realise it yet. We have a current account deficit of 8.3% of gdp and a budget deficit of 4.8% of gdp with total debt to gdp nr 100%. There will now be massive drops in living standards for the majority of the population
Why are Tories always talking down the country? We're a rich country with 7 years of poor government.
We're not as rich as we're currently pretending we are though. If we're to close the twin deficits, and make the necessary increases in business and infrastructure investment, it necessarily implies a considerable decline in consumption.
It's going to take a political leader of rare skill, and even rarer bravery, to bring the country with them through such a difficult adjustment.
It's true that making the country more equal will go some way to squaring this circle, but the size of the adjustment is so large that you still have to get the majority of the country to agree to sacrifice their personal short-term benefit for the long-term good of the country. It's a hard sell.
Yes. It needs a Thatcher. That's where we are. And Thatcher had North Sea Oil, Privatisation (her own idea TBF) and the Falklands War, to see her through the electorally dangerous early years. And the £ bottomed out at $1.05 in 1985
Starmer is no Thatcher, nor does he want to be, he's just not capable
We are going to stagnate for a decade or more, unless events intervene
Thatcher only got in in 1979 of course after 9 years of a failing Heath and then Labour government with strikes, rubbish uncollected, nationalised industry and rampant inflation
We have spent the last 30 years squandering the inheritance from Thatcher (and both parties have done this). We're like a family spunking the money made by some hard-working selfmade patriarch, and we've spaffed it all on mediocre hookers and dodgy blow
To be fair to us, the Germans have done the same from their own reforms. The Italians never reformed at all
Europe as a whole is living on tick
The US too, but they have “exorbitant privilege”, a deep single market, and cheap energy.
True, but this is not the USA of 1922 nor 1962, nor 1992 nor even 2002
They have hideous racial divides, a terrible drugs problem, the ongoing Culture Wars, an actual coup attempt, actual collapsing cities, a proper mortal rival in China, a plunging life expectancy (worse than anywhere in Europe) and really really really REALLY shit cheese, bread, fruit and charcuterie
@PickardJE former Chief Adviser at the Bank of England, Charles Goodhart, tells Times Radio: "You can say goodbye to growth over the period from now until the general election…”
Quelle surprise.
Seems pretty fatal for the government. How can they explain their pro-growth agenda leading to (or failing to prevent) the exact opposite occurring?
So far they seem to be saying
1) You just don't understand it 2) It's the fault of people not believing in it hard enough
But I cannot see that being compelling for the person in the street suffering in a recession.
A recession is the least of the problems for people in the street.
Depression Decline and fall Junk credit ratings Authoritarianism Nuclear conflict Evaporating public services
The Yookay is entering the end game. A “recession” is a walk in the park compared to what’s about to happen.
We are now quite a poor country...many people just dont realise it yet. We have a current account deficit of 8.3% of gdp and a budget deficit of 4.8% of gdp with total debt to gdp nr 100%. There will now be massive drops in living standards for the majority of the population
Why are Tories always talking down the country? We're a rich country with 7 years of poor government.
We're not as rich as we're currently pretending we are though. If we're to close the twin deficits, and make the necessary increases in business and infrastructure investment, it necessarily implies a considerable decline in consumption.
It's going to take a political leader of rare skill, and even rarer bravery, to bring the country with them through such a difficult adjustment.
It's true that making the country more equal will go some way to squaring this circle, but the size of the adjustment is so large that you still have to get the majority of the country to agree to sacrifice their personal short-term benefit for the long-term good of the country. It's a hard sell.
Yes. It needs a Thatcher. That's where we are. And Thatcher had North Sea Oil, Privatisation (her own idea TBF) and the Falklands War, to see her through the electorally dangerous early years. And the £ bottomed out at $1.05 in 1985
Starmer is no Thatcher, nor does he want to be, he's just not capable
We are going to stagnate for a decade or more, unless events intervene
Thatcher only got in in 1979 of course after 9 years of a failing Heath and then Labour government with strikes, rubbish uncollected, nationalised industry and rampant inflation
We have spent the last 30 years squandering the inheritance from Thatcher (and both parties have done this). We're like a family spunking the money made by some hard-working selfmade patriarch, and we've spaffed it all on mediocre hookers and dodgy blow
To be fair to us, the Germans have done the same from their own reforms. The Italians never reformed at all
Europe as a whole is living on tick
Thatch squandered N Sea oil revenue on unemployment benefit.
What if she hadn't done that? It would have been even worse for coal and steel communities. She couldn't save the money and spend it at the same time.
Comments
(Yeah yeah, growth will help us all - but how convenient even if it does not work the rich still benefit in the meantime).
Suddenly, they are wrong.
Oh just piss off.
Worth getting on Coffey?
I’ll make a quick comment on the ideology now though if you seek it. It will be interesting what the OBR says about chance of growth from these measure - independent economists might well say it’s a Reaganonomic wet dream of a growth budget unlikely to change the dial much on its own. In fact the government might agree with that, saying it needs much more than just that to stimulate growth.
I vote Lib Dem. When I hear trickle down budget measures I can hear Sir David Steell - this will cause apartheid in our country, apartheid of the pocket.
The error ‘Karteng made blending the whole thing into one statement doesn’t help me say this, but the ideological bits of budget did not impact the markets alone - the separate plan to borrow a quarter of a trillion for hand outs is what the markets and IMF are quite rightly acting on.
So we can have our own ideological views, but it shouldn’t stop us being fair about what’s really caused the crisis.
His neat summary of the incoherent mess is one for the history books.
I expect the Tories will muddle on and Labour will win easily, but eyes on the prize for 28/29 in that case
Utterly embarrasing for a large nation, but it has to be said that the UK government has a fair bit to be embarrased about at the moment. And it works as a something-for-something; the UK gets to veto FoM, but at the cost of not having input into other stuff and just following rules.
I don't think that sticks permanently, but it's better than where we are now. And whilst the Eurosceptic right will bellyache, they've burnt up a lot of credibility in the last week.
Pravda for Middle England doesn't work all the time.
She is 46 on BF.
No way is that not value.
Chapeau.
Political reality will not allow this. And Starmer knows this. There is no credible way pf packaging this policy which doesn't look humiliating and also electorally very risky, especially for a Remoaner Prime Minister
It's not going to happen. And - as I say - I wanted EEA/EFTA at least at first
Huq was stupid with her outrageous comments, but a grovelling apology, proof of contrition and undergoing racial awareness training for her indiscretion seems like it could be redeemable. Corbyn's unrepentant anti -semitism on the other hand is wholly different and he is beyond redemption.
One or two posters are always keen to hang opposition figures like Starmer for his beer and curry indiscretion, Rayner for her "scum" comment, which was equally as offensive, although granted, not racially motivated, as Huq's,foolishness, and now Huq. These opposition politicians and their loose tongues are sometimes blamed for whipping up the sort of hatred that ended the lives of Cox and Sir David Amess.. I think such linkage devalues the criminality involved in both the Cox and Amess cases.
These posters, on the other hand are generally content to brush Rob Roberts, or Jamie Wallace, for example, under the carpet.
It's going to take a political leader of rare skill, and even rarer bravery, to bring the country with them through such a difficult adjustment.
It's true that making the country more equal will go some way to squaring this circle, but the size of the adjustment is so large that you still have to get the majority of the country to agree to sacrifice their personal short-term benefit for the long-term good of the country. It's a hard sell.
Just like the economy.
Starmer is no Thatcher, nor does he want to be, he's just not capable
We are going to stagnate for a decade or more, unless events intervene
If Truss is defenestrated then there will be very likely a coronation of one of those two. I don't see value on Johnson.
This evening the cloud has edged over the town, and it's a little more windy. I suspect we've seen the last of good weather for this trip.
The chancellor actually surprised them with more tax cuts, not the tax take they preferred; never a clever thing to surprise markets already volatile with unexpected bad news. That finally triggered it. But I am right, the elephant in the room is the quarter trillion loan for handouts markets acting on, the growth budget bits on their own the markets and IMF would not act like this.
Time to acknowledge that elephant in the room.
Quite feasible the EU will look as fucked as the UK, or worse, by next spring
(and there isn't anything you haven't wanted, at least briefly)
He clearly has no fucking idea.
Could be worse.
Peston
@itvpeston
·
1h
"I'm not going to make policy commitments on live TV"
Chief Secretary to the Treasury @CPhilpOfficial confirms to @Peston that the government has not decided if benefits will be upgraded in line with inflation this Autumn.
Hard to say how it will play out in the end. If Putin goes nuclear then all this might seem quite trivial
Not worth the bet, IMO. If Truss gets the boot, and she ought to within a week if there is any sense left in the Tory party, there isn’t time for an election, so no useful chance for trading bets.
Had a small dabble on Wallace.
As in Buncombe County, of which Asheville is the county seat.
from wiki
In 1820, a U.S. Congressman whose district included Buncombe County, unintentionally contributed a word to the English language. In the Sixteenth Congress, after lengthy debate on the Missouri Compromise, members of the House called for an immediate vote on that important question.
Felix Walker rose to address his colleagues, insisting that his constituents expected him to make a speech "for Buncombe." It was later remarked that Walker's untimely and irrelevant oration was not just for Buncombe—it "was Buncombe."
Buncombe, afterwards spelled bunkum and later shortened to bunk, became a term for empty, nonsensical talk. This, in turn, is the etymology of the verb debunk.
How many Red Wall MPs would it take to deny a majority?
The forthcoming Finance Bill is in tatters tonight.
Edit - although the damage to the Conservatives is baked in somewhat now
Pentagon budget realignment files are a magnificent source of info about what the US military is up to, what classified programs US Special Operations Command runs in Ukraine, and what equipment has been sent to Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1574606905363898387
. .
It is now showing the famous flamingo lake in the high Atacama in Bolivia. I have been to that lake. It is truly wonderful. Bolivia is wonderfully mad. God I miss travel, I haven't been abroad for several weeks
PM Truss: Fuck 'em. Let's take from the near destitute and give that to the rich.
SPAD: As you wish madam.
I’d like her to be Prime Minister one day.
Like, next week if possible?
(a safe pair of hands, the man who got Brexit done, defeated COVID and Putin) Johnson's resurrection. I am not unconvinced that the voters might agree. Hopefully not enough of them for the barsteward to get re-elected.
I can't help thinking they are a metaphor for the West, in some form, just can't work out how
£ & € = $0.50 anyone?
IF you make it to Gatlinburg, say "hey" to Dolly!
Re: the weather, hurricane storm tracks can end up heading northeast along Eastern Seaboard, OR they can head north or even northwest into Upper South and Midwest. Could be a SERIOUS problem for someone beyond the State of Florida in a few days. NOT storm surge (unless you're on a lake) but rather heavy rain, which can be amplified by mountain terrain.
To be fair to us, the Germans have done the same from their own reforms. The Italians never reformed at all
Europe as a whole is living on tick
But I don't think anything's happening soon. The party isn't going to have a coronation when they can't agree on who to coronate. The MPs are pissed off, but they're not trying to mount a coup. Kwarteng could be for the block, but I think Truss hangs on until an election.
How much can we read into US county names? Yesterday I was hiking in Translyvania County. Last week I passed through Isle of Wight County - and it isn't even an island (and only had a little bit of coast, beyond all the peanut farms).
Don’t worry. It’s me, not you.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3665661-more-dems-want-biden-run-in-2024-harris-top-choice-if-he-doesnt-poll/
Note Harris’s numbers are slipping, and Buttigieg is in third place.
"I have no choice but to flee Russia," Nikita told AFP standing outside the Georgian side of the Kazbegi border crossing in a narrow rocky ravine."
source: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220926-i-m-no-cannon-fodder-russians-flee-to-georgia
Just saw a France24 news story that estimated that 200K young Russian men had fled -- so far.
The journalists found some Putin supporters who were still fleeing, for example, Igor: "But personally, I can't go to the war because I am the sole breadwinner in the family and I've got that bloody mortgage."
I’m rough as fuck, me.
Sometimes I feel like I’ve more in common with Blanche Livermore than most of the other posters.
"‘Volatility vortex’ slams into $24tn US government bond market"
https://www.ft.com/content/ea41ce6d-e8b2-465e-8dff-8b7fa71dc7b4
No nation is immune to this, not America, not China, not the EU, not anywhere, there are no longer any true safe havens, this is wartime shit
BBC factcheck of the Starmer speech. Verdict: a few porkies.
They have hideous racial divides, a terrible drugs problem, the ongoing Culture Wars, an actual coup attempt, actual collapsing cities, a proper mortal rival in China, a plunging life expectancy (worse than anywhere in Europe) and really really really REALLY shit cheese, bread, fruit and charcuterie
As I said, nowhere is immune