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YouGov has LAB with a 25% lead amongst women – politicalbetting.com
YouGov has LAB with a 25% lead amongst women – politicalbetting.com
We have now got the data set of the dramatic YouGov poll that had Labour with a 17% lead over the Conservatives. The numbers I find very interesting are in the gnder split where women back LAB by 50% over a 25% share for the Tories
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One minister just told me it was "bullshit" that today's market movement was related to last Friday's growth plan.
They pointed to the Bank of Japan intervention as evidence of a global problem, as US interest rate decisions
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1575164947319128064
Keir is having a great time
Does: 36% (+14) / Does not: 41% (-16)
Does Labour look ready for government?
Does: 37% (+11) / Does not: 39% (-13)
Fieldwork: 27-28 Sep, changes since 27-29 Aug
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/28/labour-twice-trusted-tories-deliver-economic-growt https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1575153586975088642/photo/1
Does: 36% (+14) / Does not: 41% (-16)
Does Labour look ready for government?
Does: 37% (+11) / Does not: 39% (-13)
Fieldwork: 27-28 Sep, changes since 27-29 Aug
Is this really true any more? it seems like an old fashioned view of family finances, where the coal mining Dad comes home from the Pit and hands his cash wages to Er Indoors
Turns out, in 2019 they voted for Thatcher mk2.
If I were a Tory MP in the red wall, I’d be upping my security….
As has been noted, if she comes out and sticks to her fiscal guns, she might kick off the panic again. But if she comes out and reverses policies, she is basically committing career suicide, and she might still kick off more panic
What can she possibly say?
Of course she is largely to blame for her own problems, but I can see the dilemma
Going to be miserable once he’s PM.
That gets to be fun when you have a number of expensive supply teachers and no interest in the permanent jobs they are covering for - eventually your only choice is to not have a teacher for a while....
For reversing a corporation tax rise that you didn't even support until a recent Damascene conversion.
Supporting the Tories isn't easy at the moment. I am sure you've found an appropriate political home.
And the gamble has failed
Douglas Murray put it best when he recalled a conservative politician talking to a young person who cannot afford a house and suggesting that the solution is 'brownfield land'. It almost perfectly encapsulates the generational divide; the conservatives protect the view they have over the nearby fields and the next generation get the a cramped flat on dirty, polluted land. If they tank the economy, the conservative party is completely ruined and has no future.
Can you see this mess going on with no Government announcement for 8 weeks....
https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1575168868816809995
WTF does that mean?
Exc: Whitehall to be told to find efficiency savings as well as refusing to reopen spending review
Chris Philp to write to Secretaries of State within hours
"What efficiency savings are there given levels of inflation??! Amazing bulls***" said a Whitehall source
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1575157707421601799
Thems the choices, Liz.
Time for the MPs to spell that out.
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574867846462685190
If govt doesn't reverse its fiscal plans, it may have little option but to cut public spending so enormously it could result in the end of the NHS, acc to Charlie Bean, one of UK's leading economists, of the @OBR_UK & @bankofengland
But on a political level she is probably finished, already, and I'm not sure what is gained for UK PLC by her staggering on
Quite astonishing
https://twitter.com/mutablejoe/status/1575143701801844736
The actual Brown was/is a nutter though.
That makes me look kindly and socialist in comparison. But it rather drives home my point as to how fucked we are
That is absolutely shambolic, shameful and outright embarrassing for a party that apparently stood for economic competence
Announce that the 45p rate will return at 43p at £100k or something as a peace offering and everyone calms down.
Liz Truss - the Unseen Prime Minister (2022 - )
It's a simple case of believing wishing something to be true makes it true. At best she didn't see it coming, at worse she did and didn't care.
As soon as members got involved suddenly policy ideas became important as a means of gathering votes. So suddenly a bunch of out of touch loonies can determine Government policy because given a choice of 2 candidates the one that promises most sweeties for them wins...
Forecasters said cities at the heart of the storm were facing ‘catastrophic wind damage’ as it began to come ashore north of Fort Myers, Fla., and officials warned it was too late to evacuate in some places.
Florida utilities are reporting that more than 300,000 customers have lost power, with the largest number of electricity outages in Lee, Collier and Sarasota counties, near where Hurricane Ian's eye is coming ashore.
Even as some parts of Florida’s coast experience a catastrophic surge of seawater over their shores, Hurricane Ian has pushed water out of Tampa Bay, leaving it less than a foot deep in some areas.
The phenomenon, reminiscent of what occurred during Hurricane Irma in 2017, is likely to last only a few hours — and could suddenly reverse, with damaging results.
YouTube - Tampa Bay water recedes as Hurricane Ian draws closer to Florida
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q55xqcYE7IU
Why did she do this? It isn't because she believed it was necessary, her own word re Boris prove she knows it wasn't, it was a choice.
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1575172668613074947?s=20&t=2bd9RagQhYdggng36dGN8Q
I'd agree the 45p change is inconsequential but it resonates politically.
One of those ain't happening with Truss.
I think both Penny and Kemi could have beaten Liz if they'd been in the final two ballot and in which case we'd now have a very different government and financial statement.
But thems the breaks...
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18343477-the-unknown-prime-minister
What's more, it might have worked and it might still work one day, and something like it probably needs to be tried. But they chose the worst possible moment to try it, a time when it is basically impossible. The world is drowning in debt and lenders are even looking suspiciously at the USA, the ultimate safe haven. Then the UK pops up and says Hey we're going on a borrowing spree!
Turns out they chose to do that 140mph drive down the wrong side of the motorway during rush hour, and therefore crashed immediately
And all the reasons we’ve discussed over many weeks and months are working to bring down core inflation globally. Not least that the Fed is busy precipitating a global crisis.
Now that is not to say that Truss might have torpedoed her chances at reelection by failing to properly explain her plans and then defend them after the event. But all this “boo hoo the economy has been killed”. I mean really. The wheels are still turning but when you’re at the eye of the storm you can sometimes not appreciate it. Our bond yields don’t carry much of a premium over Treasuries and in a historical context are just reverting to normal. Our currency like all others has lost massive ground to the dollar but broadly has kept pace with peers (euro, yen which needed an intervention this week by the way). Our deficit is mediocre among peers, our debt to gdp relatively good and the impact of the coming energy war likely to impact us less severely than most of Europe.
Truss is actually correct, the problem we have is such appalling growth prospects. Wheels coming off the industrial base on Europe (thanks Putin, honourable mention Schroeder and Merkel), China still in lockdown and having failed to resolve the black hole on its financial system (yuan lowest v dollar than since pre Beijing Olympics). And of course the long standing trade and productivity gap in the Uk.
But rarely can I recall normally sober posters losing their cognitive function so thoroughly.
At least with a coalition Government (as AV would generate most of the time) the saner elements could stop really stupid things occurring.
If we were going to borrow for long term investment, the reaction from markets and commentators would have been different.
But I think, surely Kwarteng can see this? What am I missing? Is Kwarteng a genius or maniac? Well I was 50/50 on that question at the end of last week, it's now about 10/90.
But destroy is relative. Has it harmed rather than helped? The answer seems to be a resounding yes. Complaining it was not properly explained doesn't cut the mustard.