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YouGov has LAB with a 25% lead amongst women – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 30 in General
imageYouGov has LAB with a 25% lead amongst women – politicalbetting.com

We have now got the data set of the dramatic YouGov poll that had Labour with a 17% lead over the Conservatives. The numbers I find very interesting are in the gnder split where women back LAB by 50% over a 25% share for the Tories

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472
    Second.
  • Third in a two horse race like the Tories
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    So what does the Truss government think of today?

    One minister just told me it was "bullshit" that today's market movement was related to last Friday's growth plan.

    They pointed to the Bank of Japan intervention as evidence of a global problem, as US interest rate decisions


    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1575164947319128064
  • MaxPB said:

    Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.

    Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    Scott_xP said:

    So what does the Truss government think of today?

    One minister just told me it was "bullshit" that today's market movement was related to last Friday's growth plan.

    They pointed to the Bank of Japan intervention as evidence of a global problem, as US interest rate decisions


    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1575164947319128064

    They are not entirely wrong. This IS a global debt crisis. But they have made it worse in Britain with appalling presentation, optics, timing... and no one will give them the benefit of the doubt
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    Does Keir Starmer look like a PM in waiting?
    Does: 36% (+14) / Does not: 41% (-16)

    Does Labour look ready for government?
    Does: 37% (+11) / Does not: 39% (-13)

    Fieldwork: 27-28 Sep, changes since 27-29 Aug

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/28/labour-twice-trusted-tories-deliver-economic-growt https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1575153586975088642/photo/1
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,150
    Andrew Senteance doing the appropriate funereal tone on Sky news.
  • Does Keir Starmer look like a PM in waiting?
    Does: 36% (+14) / Does not: 41% (-16)

    Does Labour look ready for government?
    Does: 37% (+11) / Does not: 39% (-13)

    Fieldwork: 27-28 Sep, changes since 27-29 Aug
  • Imagine what the lead must be among unsuperficially brown women
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472
    He's improving.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    "I suppose that in terms of cost of living it is mostly women who have to bear the brunt."

    Is this really true any more? it seems like an old fashioned view of family finances, where the coal mining Dad comes home from the Pit and hands his cash wages to Er Indoors

  • pingping Posts: 3,203
    edited September 28
    Truss is going to square her circle with huge spending cuts, focussed on the red wall.

    Turns out, in 2019 they voted for Thatcher mk2.

    If I were a Tory MP in the red wall, I’d be upping my security….
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,150
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So what does the Truss government think of today?

    One minister just told me it was "bullshit" that today's market movement was related to last Friday's growth plan.

    They pointed to the Bank of Japan intervention as evidence of a global problem, as US interest rate decisions


    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1575164947319128064

    They are not entirely wrong. This IS a global debt crisis. But they have made it worse in Britain with appalling presentation, optics, timing... and no one will give them the benefit of the doubt
    Not just presentation, optics or timing. They seem to think that they can maintain market confidence on borrowing by promising tax cuts and supply side reforms. And the markets don't believe it.
  • MaxPB said:

    Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.

    Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
    Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    MaxPB said:

    I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.

    She is in a bind, however

    As has been noted, if she comes out and sticks to her fiscal guns, she might kick off the panic again. But if she comes out and reverses policies, she is basically committing career suicide, and she might still kick off more panic

    What can she possibly say?

    Of course she is largely to blame for her own problems, but I can see the dilemma
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    He’d better make the most of it.
    Going to be miserable once he’s PM.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    Leon said:

    "I suppose that in terms of cost of living it is mostly women who have to bear the brunt."

    Is this really true any more? it seems like an old fashioned view of family finances, where the coal mining Dad comes home from the Pit and hands his cash wages to Er Indoors

    Cost of hair dye so they can LIE about their catastrophic decline, innit
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    FPT
    PJH said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Have spent all my hours since Fri talking to market participants & UKG politicos & policymakers. The gap between what capital markets need to see (policy reversal, tax rises or spending cuts) & what UKG is planning to do (more detail on supply side reforms) is MASSIVE 1/

    Prob is not only that @trussliz & @KwasiKwarteng think they can ride this out. They also have no political space to deliver the kinds of things - a major fiscal & policy course correction - markets now want to see 2/

    A reversal on her flagship policy - tax cuts - puts Truss in play with Tory MPs. She'd effectively be a lame duck PM. But no reversal/credible course correction - & the negative market reaction - puts her CX in play 3/

    How to square circle? Spending cuts? One option being discussed in Whitehall would be 5y freeze on already tight budgets of Govt departments. But markets would rightly doubt whether there was enough political will to withstand spending pressures in the run-up to an election 4/4


    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1575142464293314562

    5yr freeze on spending is 25% cuts cross the border...

    How does the NHS cut 24% when it needs to find money for social care just to resolve it's own internal issues where lack of social care > bed blocking > inability to admit patients > A&E full > Ambulances caring for patients > call times of 8 hours for anything none life threatening and often 1 hr + for things that are...
    How does education?
    From years of being a School Governor running Finance

    Year 1 cut all extra curriculum projects and some TAs
    Year 2 - the rest of the TAs and support staff
    Year 3 - restructure staff structure and remove some teaching staff
    Year 4 - panic


    Years 2 and 3 are interchangeable but there isn't 5% to play with on schools budgets let alone 25%....
    5. Don’t heat the buildings…
    You can't legally do that - rooms have to hit at least a minimum temperature.

    And a lot of school boilers will be inefficient but there definitely won't be the money to replace them..
    Also legally you have to balance the budget. So it's merely a question of which bit of the law you want to fall foul of.
    Yep I know that - you can however run a deficit in the current year provided you can demonstrate a plan to recover the deficit rapidly over the next few years....

    That gets to be fun when you have a number of expensive supply teachers and no interest in the permanent jobs they are covering for - eventually your only choice is to not have a teacher for a while....
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,604
    MaxPB said:

    I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.

    So you keep telling us.

    For reversing a corporation tax rise that you didn't even support until a recent Damascene conversion.

    Supporting the Tories isn't easy at the moment. I am sure you've found an appropriate political home.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    MaxPB said:

    I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.

    There’s going to be something in the 23rd November, apparently…
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So what does the Truss government think of today?

    One minister just told me it was "bullshit" that today's market movement was related to last Friday's growth plan.

    They pointed to the Bank of Japan intervention as evidence of a global problem, as US interest rate decisions


    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1575164947319128064

    They are not entirely wrong. This IS a global debt crisis. But they have made it worse in Britain with appalling presentation, optics, timing... and no one will give them the benefit of the doubt
    Not just presentation, optics or timing. They seem to think that they can maintain market confidence on borrowing by promising tax cuts and supply side reforms. And the markets don't believe it.
    It was certainly a gamble, as I said at the time ("avoiding a horrible, menacing traffic jam by driving 140mph on the wrong side of the motorway")

    And the gamble has failed
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,474

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    @Leon I met a 96 year old chap on my round today who said he’d met Princess Elizabeth when she was training for the ATS. He’s half deaf, half blind (and waiting for a cataract operation), but was cooking himself a beef casserole and had a couple of beers in the fridge to enjoy it with

    I’d prefer it if you delivered the coup de grace

    I'm going to sound hideously cruel - and I apologise - but your lovely old geezer is an example of what I mean.

    Why are we paying for a 96 year old to have a cataract operation? We cannot afford this any more. We are impoverishing future generations - who will literally die younger, and after bleaker lives, because of our misdirected if well-meaning generosity today.
    Perhaps we could have a stab at a fairer distribution of wealth before we resort to killing off all the old people?
    As a centrist may I suggest killing off those more than 20% away from median wealth perhaps meets both your objectives?
    Radical centrism at its finest!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited September 28
    Nigelb said:

    He’d better make the most of it.
    Going to be miserable once he’s PM.
    For us all. Out of the frying pan into the Keir
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    MaxPB said:

    Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.

    The tories have nothing for anyone other than ignorant pensioners; and those who are afraid of a labour government.

    Douglas Murray put it best when he recalled a conservative politician talking to a young person who cannot afford a house and suggesting that the solution is 'brownfield land'. It almost perfectly encapsulates the generational divide; the conservatives protect the view they have over the nearby fields and the next generation get the a cramped flat on dirty, polluted land. If they tank the economy, the conservative party is completely ruined and has no future.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204

    MaxPB said:

    Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.

    Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
    Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
    I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,474
    Nigelb said:

    He’d better make the most of it.
    Going to be miserable once he’s PM.
    So are most given how they moan, since it is an annoying job. But its a problem worth having.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    ping said:

    Truss is going to square her circle with huge spending cuts, focussed on the red wall.

    Turns out, in 2019 they voted for Thatcher mk2.

    If I were a Tory MP in the red wall, I’d be upping my security….

    Love to know what she can cut - beyond projects that have not started yet....
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.

    She is in a bind, however

    As has been noted, if she comes out and sticks to her fiscal guns, she might kick off the panic again. But if she comes out and reverses policies, she is basically committing career suicide, and she might still kick off more panic

    What can she possibly say?

    Of course she is largely to blame for her own problems, but I can see the dilemma
    She has a little bit of good-will up her sleeve. But it can be used just once, and it is a small thing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.

    She is in a bind, however

    As has been noted, if she comes out and sticks to her fiscal guns, she might kick off the panic again. But if she comes out and reverses policies, she is basically committing career suicide, and she might still kick off more panic

    What can she possibly say?

    Of course she is largely to blame for her own problems, but I can see the dilemma
    She could sack Kwasi and appoint Gove. I mean she could but obviously she won't.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    eek said:

    ping said:

    Truss is going to square her circle with huge spending cuts, focussed on the red wall.

    Turns out, in 2019 they voted for Thatcher mk2.

    If I were a Tory MP in the red wall, I’d be upping my security….

    Love to know what she can cut - beyond projects that have not started yet....
    My local has a function room they'd let them do the coronation in for fifty quid
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.

    She is in a bind, however

    As has been noted, if she comes out and sticks to her fiscal guns, she might kick off the panic again. But if she comes out and reverses policies, she is basically committing career suicide, and she might still kick off more panic

    What can she possibly say?

    Of course she is largely to blame for her own problems, but I can see the dilemma
    She has a little bit of good-will up her sleeve. But it can be used just once, and it is a small thing.
    Rly? Who from?
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.

    There’s going to be something in the 23rd November, apparently…
    That's 8 weeks today...

    Can you see this mess going on with no Government announcement for 8 weeks....
  • Here's something Liz could try. Go on TV and say that the events of recent days have proven what's she's always secretly believed: that markets are inherently wicked and she now plans to rein in, or even destroy if necessary, market capitalism. She would go from culprit to great reformer in one stroke, and it would be difficult for Labour to argue against her new position.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472
    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.

    She is in a bind, however

    As has been noted, if she comes out and sticks to her fiscal guns, she might kick off the panic again. But if she comes out and reverses policies, she is basically committing career suicide, and she might still kick off more panic

    What can she possibly say?

    Of course she is largely to blame for her own problems, but I can see the dilemma
    She has a little bit of good-will up her sleeve. But it can be used just once, and it is a small thing.
    Rly? Who from?
    I had you in mind.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461

    Imagine what the lead must be among unsuperficially brown women

    ??
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    No PM on the 6 o’clock news. First politician up is Keir Starmer explaining how reckless she’s been.
    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1575168868816809995
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,457
    Find that 13% lead amongst 50-64 the most significant figure.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,474
    edited September 28
    Funny thing about Starmer is that he was talked about as a leadership prospect immediately upon first being elected - he had to rule himself out of the contest- as if he was the second coming of Jesus, then spent some years seeming boring and competent, then a period mocked for his support for Corbyn and pitching to the left, and now is once again riding high, so high a victory from along way back now looks quite possible.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,760
    edited September 28
    Roger said:

    Imagine what the lead must be among unsuperficially brown women

    ??
    (Now ex) Labour MP Huq said we had had four “superficially brown” Chancellors under this government

    WTF does that mean?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Omnium said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.

    She is in a bind, however

    As has been noted, if she comes out and sticks to her fiscal guns, she might kick off the panic again. But if she comes out and reverses policies, she is basically committing career suicide, and she might still kick off more panic

    What can she possibly say?

    Of course she is largely to blame for her own problems, but I can see the dilemma
    She has a little bit of good-will up her sleeve. But it can be used just once, and it is a small thing.
    Rly? Who from?
    I had you in mind.
    Nope. She is down to her last bart.
  • Roger said:

    Imagine what the lead must be among unsuperficially brown women

    ??
    (Ex) Labour MP Huq said we had had four “superficially brown” Chancellors under this government

    WTF does that mean?
    That she is a pretty dim racist who probably doesnt even realise it and Labour are better off without her. Not much more.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    Going well.

    Exc: Whitehall to be told to find efficiency savings as well as refusing to reopen spending review

    Chris Philp to write to Secretaries of State within hours

    "What efficiency savings are there given levels of inflation??! Amazing bulls***" said a Whitehall source

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1575157707421601799
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.

    There’s going to be something in the 23rd November, apparently…
    That's 8 weeks today...

    Can you see this mess going on with no Government announcement for 8 weeks....
    Things were going OK till the Government announcement was made Friday...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.

    She is in a bind, however

    As has been noted, if she comes out and sticks to her fiscal guns, she might kick off the panic again. But if she comes out and reverses policies, she is basically committing career suicide, and she might still kick off more panic

    What can she possibly say?
    In her position the only sensible thing would be to go to the country and pray for a Labour victory.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    Nigelb said:

    Going well.

    Exc: Whitehall to be told to find efficiency savings as well as refusing to reopen spending review

    Chris Philp to write to Secretaries of State within hours

    "What efficiency savings are there given levels of inflation??! Amazing bulls***" said a Whitehall source

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1575157707421601799

    I mean theres the not wasting resource on looking for savings saving.......
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    No doubt some will cheer this, but I doubt it will meet with universal approbation.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574867846462685190
    If govt doesn't reverse its fiscal plans, it may have little option but to cut public spending so enormously it could result in the end of the NHS, acc to Charlie Bean, one of UK's leading economists, of the ⁦@OBR_UK & @bankofengland
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.

    She is in a bind, however

    As has been noted, if she comes out and sticks to her fiscal guns, she might kick off the panic again. But if she comes out and reverses policies, she is basically committing career suicide, and she might still kick off more panic

    What can she possibly say?

    Of course she is largely to blame for her own problems, but I can see the dilemma
    She either commits career suicide - for the benefit of the nation; or her Prime Ministerial career gets strangled almost at birth by Conservative MPs. For the benefit of the nation.

    Thems the choices, Liz.

    Time for the MPs to spell that out.
    I do feel somewhat sorry for her, on a human level

    But on a political level she is probably finished, already, and I'm not sure what is gained for UK PLC by her staggering on

    Quite astonishing
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    india eyeing up the uk and pulling out a secret folder marked "east anglia company"
    https://twitter.com/mutablejoe/status/1575143701801844736
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,150
    Will we see a poll with the Tories under 20%?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472

    Roger said:

    Imagine what the lead must be among unsuperficially brown women

    ??
    (Now ex) Labour MP Huq said we had had four “superficially brown” Chancellors under this government

    WTF does that mean?
    No idea BL
    The actual Brown was/is a nutter though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    Nigelb said:

    No doubt some will cheer this, but I doubt it will meet with universal approbation.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574867846462685190
    If govt doesn't reverse its fiscal plans, it may have little option but to cut public spending so enormously it could result in the end of the NHS, acc to Charlie Bean, one of UK's leading economists, of the ⁦@OBR_UK & @bankofengland

    Ahahahaha

    That makes me look kindly and socialist in comparison. But it rather drives home my point as to how fucked we are
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,673
    God, I hadn’t quite realised how close we came to a run on pension funds

    That is absolutely shambolic, shameful and outright embarrassing for a party that apparently stood for economic competence
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551
    edited September 28
    Looks like Liz has got a "woman problem" like Dave back in the day! :D
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697
    I bet you she doesn't have the necklace on next time she makes an appearance.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.

    Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
    Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
    I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
    The Tories need to find a way of getting their sensibles back into the party and moving the grifters and crazies away from positions of power. They need to start learning the right lessons from Labour's brush with extinction. It amazes me that they have failed to do this up to now.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.

    She is in a bind, however

    As has been noted, if she comes out and sticks to her fiscal guns, she might kick off the panic again. But if she comes out and reverses policies, she is basically committing career suicide, and she might still kick off more panic

    What can she possibly say?

    Of course she is largely to blame for her own problems, but I can see the dilemma
    "Our plan is fully costed and revenue neutral over X years, a forthcoming OBR and Treasury report with all of the details will be released in X days, the UK is and has always been a nation that pays it's way, my growth plan is part of that commitment to ensure we can continue this role over the long term"

    Announce that the 45p rate will return at 43p at £100k or something as a peace offering and everyone calms down.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472

    Will we see a poll with the Tories under 20%?

    You could get a job at Smarkets.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922
    edited September 28

    Nigelb said:

    Going well.

    Exc: Whitehall to be told to find efficiency savings as well as refusing to reopen spending review

    Chris Philp to write to Secretaries of State within hours

    "What efficiency savings are there given levels of inflation??! Amazing bulls***" said a Whitehall source

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1575157707421601799

    I mean theres the not wasting resource on looking for savings saving.......
    Or the savings from keeping JRM away from anything important by sending him around offices to annoy staff who want to work from home, or perhaps even catch them wasting taxpayer money on modern woke technology like typewriters and fax machines.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,474
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've gone from indifference to active loathing of Liz Truss. Destroying the nation's economy and not even coming out to defend her actions.

    She is in a bind, however

    As has been noted, if she comes out and sticks to her fiscal guns, she might kick off the panic again. But if she comes out and reverses policies, she is basically committing career suicide, and she might still kick off more panic

    What can she possibly say?

    Of course she is largely to blame for her own problems, but I can see the dilemma
    I can too, but she's also known to be flexible and ruthless. She has cocked up massively, I find that hard to dispute - even if people think her plans are good in theory, she has quite clearly been blindsided by the reaction to the plans, and it is causing serious damage - and she has to step up and get a grip, not stick her fingers in her ears and pretend its just those bad Labour people and people who hate growth(who?) who are complaining.
  • Andrew Bonar Law = the Unknown Prime Minister (1922-23)

    Liz Truss - the Unseen Prime Minister (2022 - )
  • kle4 said:

    Funny thing about Starmer is that he was talked about as a leadership prospect immediately upon first being elected - he had to rule himself out of the contest- as if he was the second coming of Jesus, then spent some years seeming boring and competent, then a period mocked for his support for Corbyn and pitching to the left, and now is once again riding high, so high a victory from along way back now looks quite possible.

    Starmer has many flaws. Stupidity is not one of them. That is currently a huge political advantage.

  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,046
    A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,506
    edited September 28
    Absolutely astonishing that the Conservative Party with a majority of 80 concluded that their Johnson related collapse in support from the public was policy related rather than primarly a problem focussed on the man himself and his style of Govt. Nobody was asking for what they’ve given us.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,226
    Nigelb said:

    No doubt some will cheer this, but I doubt it will meet with universal approbation.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574867846462685190
    If govt doesn't reverse its fiscal plans, it may have little option but to cut public spending so enormously it could result in the end of the NHS, acc to Charlie Bean, one of UK's leading economists, of the ⁦@OBR_UK & @bankofengland

    Ah, I see it's time for the hysterical "could"s.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297

    Andrew Bonar Law = the Unknown Prime Minister (1922-23)

    Liz Truss - the Unseen Prime Minister (2022 - )

    Unspeakable.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,226
    GIN1138 said:

    Looks like Liz has got a "woman problem" like Dave back in the day! :D

    Or Sir Keir has a "man problem"?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,474
    alex_ said:

    Absolutely astonishing that the Conservative Party with a majority of 80 concluded that their Johnson related collapse in support from the public was policy related rather than simply a problem focussed on the man himself and his style of Govt. Nobody was asking for what they’ve given us.

    Not even Truss was asking for it, she wanted Boris (and by implication his governing policies) to remain in place!

    It's a simple case of believing wishing something to be true makes it true. At best she didn't see it coming, at worse she did and didn't care.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    No doubt some will cheer this, but I doubt it will meet with universal approbation.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574867846462685190
    If govt doesn't reverse its fiscal plans, it may have little option but to cut public spending so enormously it could result in the end of the NHS, acc to Charlie Bean, one of UK's leading economists, of the ⁦@OBR_UK & @bankofengland

    Ah, I see it's time for the hysterical "could"s.
    That started with the Chancellor’s claims about growth.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,474

    Andrew Bonar Law = the Unknown Prime Minister (1922-23)

    Liz Truss - the Unseen Prime Minister (2022 - )

    We've got way more unknown PMs than that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    EPG said:

    A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.

    In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend

  • NYT - Live Updates: Hurricane Ian, Nearly a Category 5 Storm, Pounds the Florida Coast
    Forecasters said cities at the heart of the storm were facing ‘catastrophic wind damage’ as it began to come ashore north of Fort Myers, Fla., and officials warned it was too late to evacuate in some places.

    Florida utilities are reporting that more than 300,000 customers have lost power, with the largest number of electricity outages in Lee, Collier and Sarasota counties, near where Hurricane Ian's eye is coming ashore.

    Even as some parts of Florida’s coast experience a catastrophic surge of seawater over their shores, Hurricane Ian has pushed water out of Tampa Bay, leaving it less than a foot deep in some areas.

    The phenomenon, reminiscent of what occurred during Hurricane Irma in 2017, is likely to last only a few hours — and could suddenly reverse, with damaging results.

    YouTube - Tampa Bay water recedes as Hurricane Ian draws closer to Florida
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q55xqcYE7IU
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    alex_ said:

    Absolutely astonishing that the Conservative Party with a majority of 80 concluded that their Johnson related collapse in support from the public was policy related rather than primarly a problem focussed on the man himself and his style of Govt. Nobody was asking for what they’ve given us.

    The tory voting public wanted Continuity (no sleaze) Johnson
  • eek said:

    alex_ said:

    Absolutely astonishing that the Conservative Party with a majority of 80 concluded that their Johnson related collapse in support from the public was policy related rather than simply a problem focussed on the man himself and his style of Govt. Nobody was asking for what they’ve given us.

    When MPs voted for a new party leader - they could vote on the best person for the job,

    As soon as members got involved suddenly policy ideas became important as a means of gathering votes. So suddenly a bunch of out of touch loonies can determine Government policy because given a choice of 2 candidates the one that promises most sweeties for them wins...
    Yes this has destroyed both our main parties, and is amplified by social media. We probably get one acceptable leader every four or five cycles and they will likely be the ones out of power rather than PMs. It really needs to change but won't. Expect Italian style comedy politics for a while to come.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,474
    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.

    In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend

    I cannot quite credit why Truss, who seemed generally competent, decided to stake everything on a high stakes gamble to please super rich people (and the rest of us down the line, maybe, if it worked).

    Why did she do this? It isn't because she believed it was necessary, her own word re Boris prove she knows it wasn't, it was a choice.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,788
    Leon said:

    She is in a bind, however

    As has been noted, if she comes out and sticks to her fiscal guns, she might kick off the panic again. But if she comes out and reverses policies, she is basically committing career suicide, and she might still kick off more panic

    What can she possibly say?

    Of course she is largely to blame for her own problems, but I can see the dilemma

    Maybe the dopes who voted for her might have realised that an ex-remainer, ex-Lib Dem, ex-republican, wasn't likely to be the safe pair of hands the country needed post-Boris. If you want mass-euthanization you could start with that lot!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    "Compare these two polls, conducted two weeks apart. Two weeks ago, the Tories had a 15-point lead on which party voters most trust to grow the economy. In a fortnight, that’s turned into a 32-point lead for Labour."

    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1575172668613074947?s=20&t=2bd9RagQhYdggng36dGN8Q
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,150
    EPG said:

    A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.

    You inherit the situation you inherit. If you do a massive giveaway and the markets don't buy it you're screwed. No-one forced them to do it.

    I'd agree the 45p change is inconsequential but it resonates politically.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862

    Andrew Bonar Law = the Unknown Prime Minister (1922-23)

    Liz Truss - the Unseen Prime Minister (2022 - )

    He made it to 209 days and was replaced by his Chancellor.

    One of those ain't happening with Truss.
  • Can you imagine the Daily Mail right now if Keir Starmer had gone into hiding?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551
    edited September 28
    alex_ said:

    Absolutely astonishing that the Conservative Party with a majority of 80 concluded that their Johnson related collapse in support from the public was policy related rather than primarly a problem focussed on the man himself and his style of Govt. Nobody was asking for what they’ve given us.

    I don't think the "Conservative Party" necessarily did think that just the current leadership who appear to be rather mad.

    I think both Penny and Kemi could have beaten Liz if they'd been in the final two ballot and in which case we'd now have a very different government and financial statement.

    But thems the breaks...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757

    alex_ said:

    Absolutely astonishing that the Conservative Party with a majority of 80 concluded that their Johnson related collapse in support from the public was policy related rather than primarly a problem focussed on the man himself and his style of Govt. Nobody was asking for what they’ve given us.

    The tory voting public wanted Continuity (no sleaze) Johnson
    Yep, the economic policies were OK. Just needed something on energy - which Truss and Kwarteng gave and everyone thought was fine.
  • kle4 said:

    Andrew Bonar Law = the Unknown Prime Minister (1922-23)

    Liz Truss - the Unseen Prime Minister (2022 - )

    We've got way more unknown PMs than that.
    True. But it was ABL who was subject of book by that title, written by Conservative historian Robert Blake, aka Lord Blake:

    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18343477-the-unknown-prime-minister
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862

    kle4 said:

    Andrew Bonar Law = the Unknown Prime Minister (1922-23)

    Liz Truss - the Unseen Prime Minister (2022 - )

    We've got way more unknown PMs than that.
    True. But it was ABL who was subject of book by that title, written by Conservative historian Robert Blake, aka Lord Blake:

    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18343477-the-unknown-prime-minister
    Based on a remark by Asquith: 'It is fitting that we have buried the Unknown Prime Minister next to the Unknown Soldier.'
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,046

    EPG said:

    A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.

    You inherit the situation you inherit. If you do a massive giveaway and the markets don't buy it you're screwed. No-one forced them to do it.

    I'd agree the 45p change is inconsequential but it resonates politically.
    For sure. But I don't think any giveaway budget works when rate expectations are as high as they are now. And a very large share of the deficit was inherited from Sunak decisions. (They were also very politically problematic for the Tory Party in particular, which was asking its traditional supporters to become much worse off to pay for everyone else's fuel.)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.

    In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend

    I cannot quite credit why Truss, who seemed generally competent, decided to stake everything on a high stakes gamble to please super rich people (and the rest of us down the line, maybe, if it worked).

    Why did she do this? It isn't because she believed it was necessary, her own word re Boris prove she knows it wasn't, it was a choice.
    No I think she really believes this. It is IEA economics. Low tax, low spend, Singapore on Thames and all that

    What's more, it might have worked and it might still work one day, and something like it probably needs to be tried. But they chose the worst possible moment to try it, a time when it is basically impossible. The world is drowning in debt and lenders are even looking suspiciously at the USA, the ultimate safe haven. Then the UK pops up and says Hey we're going on a borrowing spree!

    Turns out they chose to do that 140mph drive down the wrong side of the motorway during rush hour, and therefore crashed immediately
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,150
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.

    In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend

    I cannot quite credit why Truss, who seemed generally competent, decided to stake everything on a high stakes gamble to please super rich people (and the rest of us down the line, maybe, if it worked).

    Why did she do this? It isn't because she believed it was necessary, her own word re Boris prove she knows it wasn't, it was a choice.
    Because she genuinely believes it. And pleasing the super rich with the 45p cut wasn't really the problem. It was the total package of the giveaway. It's not rocket science. You borrow lots of money, do a large giveaway and don't provide any forecast. Insane.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819

    eek said:

    alex_ said:

    Absolutely astonishing that the Conservative Party with a majority of 80 concluded that their Johnson related collapse in support from the public was policy related rather than simply a problem focussed on the man himself and his style of Govt. Nobody was asking for what they’ve given us.

    When MPs voted for a new party leader - they could vote on the best person for the job,

    As soon as members got involved suddenly policy ideas became important as a means of gathering votes. So suddenly a bunch of out of touch loonies can determine Government policy because given a choice of 2 candidates the one that promises most sweeties for them wins...
    Yes this has destroyed both our main parties, and is amplified by social media. We probably get one acceptable leader every four or five cycles and they will likely be the ones out of power rather than PMs. It really needs to change but won't. Expect Italian style comedy politics for a while to come.
    Which means that a form of PR / AV is essential asap to solve this mess.

    At least with a coalition Government (as AV would generate most of the time) the saner elements could stop really stupid things occurring.
  • moonshine said:

    I think we’ve reached peak hyperbole. All this “destroyed the economy”. I’ll buy another bottle of champagne in Finland if we hit 6% base rates in the next year. It’s not going to happen. The swap curve is all over the place due to the volatility, that is all.

    And all the reasons we’ve discussed over many weeks and months are working to bring down core inflation globally. Not least that the Fed is busy precipitating a global crisis.

    Now that is not to say that Truss might have torpedoed her chances at reelection by failing to properly explain her plans and then defend them after the event. But all this “boo hoo the economy has been killed”. I mean really. The wheels are still turning but when you’re at the eye of the storm you can sometimes not appreciate it. Our bond yields don’t carry much of a premium over Treasuries and in a historical context are just reverting to normal. Our currency like all others has lost massive ground to the dollar but broadly has kept pace with peers (euro, yen which needed an intervention this week by the way). Our deficit is mediocre among peers, our debt to gdp relatively good and the impact of the coming energy war likely to impact us less severely than most of Europe.

    Truss is actually correct, the problem we have is such appalling growth prospects. Wheels coming off the industrial base on Europe (thanks Putin, honourable mention Schroeder and Merkel), China still in lockdown and having failed to resolve the black hole on its financial system (yuan lowest v dollar than since pre Beijing Olympics). And of course the long standing trade and productivity gap in the Uk.

    But rarely can I recall normally sober posters losing their cognitive function so thoroughly.

    Of course everyone wants more growth. Massive unfunded tax cuts for the rich when public finances are already dire do not create more growth.

    If we were going to borrow for long term investment, the reaction from markets and commentators would have been different.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Leon said:

    "Compare these two polls, conducted two weeks apart. Two weeks ago, the Tories had a 15-point lead on which party voters most trust to grow the economy. In a fortnight, that’s turned into a 32-point lead for Labour."

    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1575172668613074947?s=20&t=2bd9RagQhYdggng36dGN8Q

    Frankly, surprised it is not more. All they need to say is "Well, we wouldn't do THAT!!!"
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,604
    ...
    moonshine said:

    I think we’ve reached peak hyperbole. All this “destroyed the economy”. I’ll buy another bottle of champagne in Finland if we hit 6% base rates in the next year. It’s not going to happen. The swap curve is all over the place due to the volatility, that is all.

    And all the reasons we’ve discussed over many weeks and months are working to bring down core inflation globally. Not least that the Fed is busy precipitating a global crisis.

    Now that is not to say that Truss might have torpedoed her chances at reelection by failing to properly explain her plans and then defend them after the event. But all this “boo hoo the economy has been killed”. I mean really. The wheels are still turning but when you’re at the eye of the storm you can sometimes not appreciate it. Our bond yields don’t carry much of a premium over Treasuries and in a historical context are just reverting to normal. Our currency like all others has lost massive ground to the dollar but broadly has kept pace with peers (euro, yen which needed an intervention this week by the way). Our deficit is mediocre among peers, our debt to gdp relatively good and the impact of the coming energy war likely to impact us less severely than most of Europe.

    Truss is actually correct, the problem we have is such appalling growth prospects. Wheels coming off the industrial base on Europe (thanks Putin, honourable mention Schroeder and Merkel), China still in lockdown and having failed to resolve the black hole on its financial system (yuan lowest v dollar than since pre Beijing Olympics). And of course the long standing trade and productivity gap in the Uk.

    But rarely can I recall normally sober posters losing their cognitive function so thoroughly.

    Not a testicle amongst them. Shower.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,788
    Leon said:

    No I think she really believes this. It is IEA economics. Low tax, low spend, Singapore on Thames and all that

    What's more, it might have worked and it might still work one day, and something like it probably needs to be tried. But they chose the worst possible moment to try it, a time when it is basically impossible. The world is drowning in debt and lenders are even looking suspiciously at the USA, the ultimate safe haven. Then the UK pops up and says Hey we're going on a borrowing spree!

    Turns out they chose to do that 140mph drive down the wrong side of the motorway during rush hour, and therefore crashed immediately

    Exactly. I sort of buy the argument they are making, but can not understand the timing or the way it has been delivered as a sort of half-a-budget with no spending implications or OBR evaluation. It's bonkers.

    But I think, surely Kwarteng can see this? What am I missing? Is Kwarteng a genius or maniac? Well I was 50/50 on that question at the end of last week, it's now about 10/90.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 516

    eek said:


    When MPs voted for a new party leader - they could vote on the best person for the job,

    As soon as members got involved suddenly policy ideas became important as a means of gathering votes. So suddenly a bunch of out of touch loonies can determine Government policy because given a choice of 2 candidates the one that promises most sweeties for them wins...

    Yes this has destroyed both our main parties, and is amplified by social media. We probably get one acceptable leader every four or five cycles and they will likely be the ones out of power rather than PMs. It really needs to change but won't. Expect Italian style comedy politics for a while to come.
    If you flipped the Tory process around I think that might help without being so much of a non-starter as just removing the membership participation. Have a lots-of-candidates hustings process, give members a ranked-choice ballot, have the top 3 or so go to an MP vote for the final decision.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,474
    moonshine said:

    I think we’ve reached peak hyperbole. All this “destroyed the economy”. I’ll buy another bottle of champagne in Finland if we hit 6% base rates in the next year. It’s not going to happen. The swap curve is all over the place due to the volatility, that is all.

    And all the reasons we’ve discussed over many weeks and months are working to bring down core inflation globally. Not least that the Fed is busy precipitating a global crisis.

    Now that is not to say that Truss might have torpedoed her chances at reelection by failing to properly explain her plans and then defend them after the event. But all this “boo hoo the economy has been killed”. I mean really. The wheels are still turning but when you’re at the eye of the storm you can sometimes not appreciate it. Our bond yields don’t carry much of a premium over Treasuries and in a historical context are just reverting to normal. Our currency like all others has lost massive ground to the dollar but broadly has kept pace with peers (euro, yen which needed an intervention this week by the way). Our deficit is mediocre among peers, our debt to gdp relatively good and the impact of the coming energy war likely to impact us less severely than most of Europe.

    Truss is actually correct, the problem we have is such appalling growth prospects. Wheels coming off the industrial base on Europe (thanks Putin, honourable mention Schroeder and Merkel), China still in lockdown and having failed to resolve the black hole on its financial system (yuan lowest v dollar than since pre Beijing Olympics). And of course the long standing trade and productivity gap in the Uk.

    But rarely can I recall normally sober posters losing their cognitive function so thoroughly.

    It's possible there is an overreaction. If so those who stay the course will earn a lot of bragging rights.

    But destroy is relative. Has it harmed rather than helped? The answer seems to be a resounding yes. Complaining it was not properly explained doesn't cut the mustard.
This discussion has been closed.