Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
What it might mean, though, is that the Labour vote share spikes (artificially) at the next GE and they take it as a firm mandate to do their own version of their hobby horse batshittery, with extreme Wokery and nannying.
They could come down again with a thud just as quick. But so be it.
That by election win in Sherbourne feels a looooooong time ago! The Tory vote share in tomorrows will be interesting! How many will vote blue in the teeth of the gale??
I think there may be something for you Tory-inclined in tomorrow's by-elections. Some tricky LD defences in Harborough and Warrington. I think the party will do well to hold them all.
Elsewhere, doesn't look easy for the Blues.
Jennifer Saunders is the Tory candidate in Oxford. Joke of a Party.
Odd she's bouncing between Churchill (well to the NW of Oxford) and Hinksey Park (where my friends used to live - outer Victorian suburb to south of the centre, between the river meadows).
Labour should retain this one. The Greens have been advancing in this part of Oxford but Labour’s candidate is excellent and they’ve been campaigning hard.
Churchill in this context is the Headington/East Oxford area around the hospital, not the little village in NW Oxfordshire.
We’ve got two more years if this. If the government really is going to make the poorest pay for tax cuts for the richest we’ll see civil disorder. It’s hard to understand why any sane Tory - or anyone else - would support this. It degrades us as a country.
A few more nuggets to flesh out Sam’s thread, based on a series of conversations with people in and close to government over recent days. To echo Sam, they have two overarching messages: 1. Market chaos is NOT a consequence of Friday’s statement 2. No change in plans, whatsoever. https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1575203918573080576
They have spoken to credible FX people and market traders, who have assured them it simply “doesn’t add up” that their fiscal package could have caused this market reaction. They believe the main explanation for these ructions is US monetary policy.
They are determined to plough on with the plan and provide more info about their supply side reforms on everything from wind farms to planning. They believe this will help reassure markets, as will their medium term fiscal plan in Nov.
One message you’ll be hearing a LOT in the coming wks: if it weren’t for govt’s mini-Budget (and by this they seem mainly to mean the energy package) UK would have been facing a major economic shock. Markets can do what they want; they believe theirs is the right plan.
There really is the stench of death around this government now. To be fair, Sunak’s campaign team warned that Truss was a crackpot, and she’s not disappointed. | Tory MPs tell Truss: sack Kwarteng or face mutiny
Wow. Tory MP quoted in article: “She could sack Kwasi and appoint somebody who could then make a few tweaks. But I think people are seriously underpricing the chance that it’s all over, that this government is dead on arrival.” /2
A few more nuggets to flesh out Sam’s thread, based on a series of conversations with people in and close to government over recent days. To echo Sam, they have two overarching messages: 1. Market chaos is NOT a consequence of Friday’s statement 2. No change in plans, whatsoever. https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1575203918573080576
They have spoken to credible FX people and market traders, who have assured them it simply “doesn’t add up” that their fiscal package could have caused this market reaction. They believe the main explanation for these ructions is US monetary policy.
They are determined to plough on with the plan and provide more info about their supply side reforms on everything from wind farms to planning. They believe this will help reassure markets, as will their medium term fiscal plan in Nov.
One message you’ll be hearing a LOT in the coming wks: if it weren’t for govt’s mini-Budget (and by this they seem mainly to mean the energy package) UK would have been facing a major economic shock. Markets can do what they want; they believe theirs is the right plan.
With a side swipe at "speculators" and hedge funds - the free marketers he has spent his whole life telling us to worship as they provide oil for the great financial engine that delivers prosperity.
No wonder he looks like shit.
And, iirc, he may have had (has?) some business dealings with personally
I must say I'm surprised and pleased to see some of our most committed Tory posters talking about giving Starmer their vote next time. I think the Tories will be in the low-to-mid 20's soon.
Hopefully such voters will think about which seat they are in, and vote tactically.
I think this will end up with Truss and Kwarteng made to drop the 45p and bring forward the details before November in return for the party backing the growth plan and spending restraint in general.
It's not really about the 45p rate, although it probably won't yield much, that's just become mood music and the brand music - the real issue is the junking of the idea that the cost of debt and the size of the deficit matters.
I must say I'm surprised and pleased to see some of our most committed Tory posters talking about giving Starmer their vote next time. I think the Tories will be in the mid-to-low 20's soon.
For a lot of what you might call natural conservative voters, what we're really saying is we're pro-business, pro-stability and pro-economic competence. We want the economy to do well, because that's how we believe the whole populace prospers.
We vote for the party with policies that will lead to stability and prosperity economically. Historically that has been the Conservative Party. But it clearly is not now.
The Conservatives do not own my vote. And they certainly lost it this week.
We’ve got two more years if this. If the government really is going to make the poorest pay for tax cuts for the richest we’ll see civil disorder. It’s hard to understand why any sane Tory - or anyone else - would support this. It degrades us as a country.
I do not support this and have already said several times today this is a resignation (s) matter
A few more nuggets to flesh out Sam’s thread, based on a series of conversations with people in and close to government over recent days. To echo Sam, they have two overarching messages: 1. Market chaos is NOT a consequence of Friday’s statement 2. No change in plans, whatsoever. https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1575203918573080576
They have spoken to credible FX people and market traders, who have assured them it simply “doesn’t add up” that their fiscal package could have caused this market reaction. They believe the main explanation for these ructions is US monetary policy.
They are determined to plough on with the plan and provide more info about their supply side reforms on everything from wind farms to planning. They believe this will help reassure markets, as will their medium term fiscal plan in Nov.
One message you’ll be hearing a LOT in the coming wks: if it weren’t for govt’s mini-Budget (and by this they seem mainly to mean the energy package) UK would have been facing a major economic shock. Markets can do what they want; they believe theirs is the right plan.
Undoubtedly Thatcher wanted to as well but she was sensible enough not to try and ignore economic reality, the high price of debt, and soaring inflation and press on regardless and ignore any issues about fiscal sustainability.
That's the problem here. It's raw ideology meeting the real world.
That's not the art of politics.
For decades the Tory USP has been that they won't frighten the horses (the markets) unlike Labour. Yet on Friday Kwarteng and Truss donned their special handmade horse-frightening masks and charged into the field banging saucepans together as they ran. It's just bonkers.
We’ve got two more years if this. If the government really is going to make the poorest pay for tax cuts for the richest we’ll see civil disorder. It’s hard to understand why any sane Tory - or anyone else - would support this. It degrades us as a country.
It is mostly the PB demographic (£50-150k) paying.
SKS wants parliament recalled. Not going to happen but could he call all his party in to ask questions to empty benches. A publicity stunt sure. But emphasizes the government being AWOL.
Not sure he can do that tbh. HoC won't be open unless the Speaker agrees to it surely?
You're probably right. Maybe Phil and Holly still have a key.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
What it might mean, though, is that the Labour vote share spikes (artificially) at the next GE and they take it as a firm mandate to do their own version of their hobby horse batshittery, with extreme Wokery and nannying.
They could come down again with a thud just as quick. But so be it.
Hopefully the quick suspension of Rupa Huq may point to a not-so-woke future?
I must say I'm surprised and pleased to see some of our most committed Tory posters talking about giving Starmer their vote next time. I think the Tories will be in the mid-to-low 20's soon.
For a lot of what you might call natural conservative voters, what we're really saying is we're pro-business, pro-stability and pro-economic competence. We want the economy to do well, because that's how we believe the whole populace prospers.
We vote for the party with policies that will lead to stability and prosperity economically. Historically that has been the Conservative Party. But it clearly is not now.
The Conservatives do not own my vote. And they certainly lost it this week.
We are at Ratner levels of self-destruction by the Tory Party. The membership have blown their own party to pieces. Maybe they knew in their hearts that it was time for Opposition.
It is all very easy for Starmer at the moment but I fail to see exactly what he's said he's going to do that will fundamentally change the position that we are in.
If he tells us that we are all poorer thanks to Covid and Russia, and sorry, but we'll just have to put up with sh*t services and high taxes for years to come then that might be believable.
"we are all poorer thanks to Covid and Russia, and sorry, but we'll just have to put up with sh*t services and high taxes for years to come"
... is a pithy summation of the facts. And this is the *good* outcome, where the war ends soonish, and does not worsen
At some point, some political party has to give this news to the British people
The catch is the "spawled in the gutter with the remains of a dodgy kebab" theory of politics. Unless the UK is unambiguously in that state, it won't be ready to be a brave little soldier and take its medicine. The temptation of someone saying "the political class are lying to you- they want you to be poor and fear you claiming your true deserved wealth" will be irresistible. (Heck, we see it here often enough.)
Being optimistic, Truss screwing up this badly this quickly is a good thing. Maybe the kebab moment is about to happen, and this Conservative government can be left with the grim duty of checking the country into the economic equivalent of the Priory. We then give Starmer a modern Doctor's Mandate and the Conservatives can't complain about it. And by 2029, the fogs are starting to clear.
Can the UK electorate stay on the wagon? I hope so, but the recent results from Italy make me nervous.
I think this will end up with Truss and Kwarteng made to drop the 45p and bring forward the details before November in return for the party backing the growth plan and spending restraint in general.
It's not really about the 45p rate, although it probably won't yield much, that's just become mood music and the brand music - the real issue is the junking of the idea that the cost of debt and the size of the deficit matters.
i.e. MMT
But they will drop the 45p. As Hodges has been saying all day. Why not do it now rather than drag it out for two more torrid weeks and then do it anyway as they will have to.
I must say I'm surprised and pleased to see some of our most committed Tory posters talking about giving Starmer their vote next time. I think the Tories will be in the low-to-mid 20's soon.
This is not a traditional Tory government, it is a libertarian government as matches Truss and Kwarteng's ideology.
Truss is the most libertarian PM, economically laissez faire but socially liberal, we have ever had. However I for one will still support the party, this experiment will not last for ever it will either succeed or fail
Has no one else clocked that we now have another episode of incompetence from the BoW to contend with? Seems like DB pensions / LDI were a ticking time bomb that was going to explode whenever gilt yields reverted to historical norms. Which they were going to anyway via QE reversal and being dragged up by the Fed.
On top of the crap job by the MPC last week, following a sustained period of being far too dovish.
Anyway let’s blame Kwasi for a £2bn tax cut for higher rate taxpayers!
It wasn’t the higher rate taxpayer thing. That was just the politically crass thing, it’s not going to have had any effect on the markets. As our deputy host says - it was the lack of/suppressing of independent forecasts. It was the Govt saying “eff you” to the experts, we’re doing what we (ideologically) want anyway. And the markets obviously said “eff you” back. It’s not that the markets believe the forecasts implicitly. But they want to know what they’re betting against. That’s what the forecasts give them.
Finance traders make money by successfully going against consensus opinion.
Looks like the Ukrainians have surrounded Lyman. From an amateur map observer it looks like Ukraine are pushing for another encirclement further North too.
SitRep Lyman/Kupyansk - 28/09 - Thread
Lyman: what do we know?
✅Visual confirmation of AFU 🇺🇦 control over Novoselivka, Zelena Dolyna ➡️AFU 🇺🇦 reportedly reached the Zherebets river at Nevs'ke, Novolyubivka and Ivanivka ➡️AFU 🇺🇦 is advancing on Stavky road north of Lyman
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
Crikey. Starmer is in landslide territory if this is reflected across Tory voters in general.
GE cannot come quick enough.
I fear I am in the same boat
I LOATHE Labour, and wokeness, and all of that, as you all know
But this could be my one and only vote for Labour ever (I hope). And, as it happens, for Keir Starmer MP
Enough. This is the shittiest of shit shows. The Tories need to go away and re-imagine what they want, in opposition, and boring Sir Keir needs to steady the ship of state. And tell the Scot Nats to fuck off
what could really move things now amongst the oaps is tory incompetence threatened pensions....suddenly it starts to hit home for the oaps who think they are sitting pretty in mortgage free houses and being out of the workforce
Do we know the Daily Mail front page for tomorrow?
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
What it might mean, though, is that the Labour vote share spikes (artificially) at the next GE and they take it as a firm mandate to do their own version of their hobby horse batshittery, with extreme Wokery and nannying.
They could come down again with a thud just as quick. But so be it.
Hopefully the quick suspension of Rupa Huq may point to a not-so-woke future?
I think this will end up with Truss and Kwarteng made to drop the 45p and bring forward the details before November in return for the party backing the growth plan and spending restraint in general.
It's not really about the 45p rate, although it probably won't yield much, that's just become mood music and the brand music - the real issue is the junking of the idea that the cost of debt and the size of the deficit matters.
Years ago, I worked on the Paul Simon for President campaign. (The Senator not the Singer.)
Who was an old-school New Deal Democrat who also was sponsor in US Senate of the Balanced Budget Amendment.
A few more nuggets to flesh out Sam’s thread, based on a series of conversations with people in and close to government over recent days. To echo Sam, they have two overarching messages: 1. Market chaos is NOT a consequence of Friday’s statement 2. No change in plans, whatsoever. https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1575203918573080576
They have spoken to credible FX people and market traders, who have assured them it simply “doesn’t add up” that their fiscal package could have caused this market reaction. They believe the main explanation for these ructions is US monetary policy.
They are determined to plough on with the plan and provide more info about their supply side reforms on everything from wind farms to planning. They believe this will help reassure markets, as will their medium term fiscal plan in Nov.
One message you’ll be hearing a LOT in the coming wks: if it weren’t for govt’s mini-Budget (and by this they seem mainly to mean the energy package) UK would have been facing a major economic shock. Markets can do what they want; they believe theirs is the right plan.
On that last point without the energy part of the mini budget the UK would have faced a major economic crisis.
Adding the other bits to the mini budget triggered it’s own economic crisis
If it doesn't add up that their fiscal package caused meltdown then why did it not happen on, say, the Wednesday before Karwteng gave one of the worst budget speeches in history?
- ”We have now got the data set of the dramatic YouGov poll that had Labour with a 17% lead over the Conservatives.”
Interesting choice of sub-sample there Mike. For punters interested in the Maj market, this is the more interesting subsample:
YOUGOV HAS SNP WITH A 23% LEAD AMONG SCOTS
SNP 44% SLab 21% SCon 19% SLD 5%
So a swing of 2% from SNP to Labour since 2019 then! Labour meanwhile has a swing of 13% overall UK wide which would be enough to give it an overall majority
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
What it might mean, though, is that the Labour vote share spikes (artificially) at the next GE and they take it as a firm mandate to do their own version of their hobby horse batshittery, with extreme Wokery and nannying.
They could come down again with a thud just as quick. But so be it.
Shall we join the Labour Party and try and influence them from the inside?
As a superficially brown chap, I could educate them.
KEY WEST, Fla. — Eko Kereselidze looked out at the huge stretch of water nipping at her front door on Wednesday and wondered what to do next. Hurricane Ian had flooded her street in Key West just to her front step, and the authorities were predicting even worse storm surges through Friday during high tides.
She contemplated going to a nearby hotel, even if just to crash in the lobby or upper floors.
“I don’t know what we are going to do,” Ms. Kereselidze said. “It was so bad. It was so scary, because I can’t swim.”
In Monroe County, Florida’s southernmost county, which includes the Keys, officials were warning people that the danger had not subsided, even though the storm had already passed through.
At least 6.6 inches of rain had fallen in the county, according to Kirsten Livengood, a spokeswoman for the county, where the waters rose two feet higher than normal.
Ms. Kereselidze and a friend, Dea Tinikashvili, had prepared for the storm as best they could, storing important documents in vacuum-sealed plastic and propping large appliances up off the ground in their carport. The washer was up on bricks, and the clothes dryer on a chair. All around them: water.
At one point during the storm, they found a man standing in the pelting rain, holding bags of his belongings. His home had flooded and he had fled on foot. They took the stranger in.
Elizabeth Cifuentes, a housekeeper, and her roommate, Vinicio Ochoa, who works in landscaping, were trapped inside their nearby apartment, waiting for the water to recede.
“How did I spend the night? With fear!” Ms. Cifuentes said. “The water was up to here,” she added, pointing to the front step.
Flooding is not uncommon in Key West, but neither Ms. Cifuentes nor Mr. Ochoa said they could recall things ever getting this bad. For the last big storm in the area, Hurricane Irma in 2017, they fled to Orlando.
Mr. Ochoa said everyone was calling him on Wednesday to come work and help clean up the masses of broken tree branches that were now peppering the city. His car started up, despite having spent the night in standing water, but it was still surrounded by water and he was unable to move it.
“I think it’s still too windy out here to work” he said. “What If I get hit in the head with a flying branch?”
Addendum - Hurricane Ian just made a second landfall, this time on the Florida mainland near the southwestern city of Punta Gorda. Ian had maximum sustained winds estimated at 145 m.p.h., according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm first hit Florida at Cayo Costa, a barrier island west of Fort Myers.
SSI - note that Ian is moving slowly, and is expected to remain over Florida for the next day or so, before it heads out into the Atlantic near Jacksonville. With rainfall AND storm surge expected to get worse before they get better, in part due to shifting winds as counter-cyclical storm proceeds in generally NNW direction across the peninsula.
As the BoE intervention expires in 13 days, what is the PB stock club thinking about personal investment strategy?
Does it all kick off again? What to sell and what to buy? Are we really heading for a crash like March 2020 or the GFC?
Yes. I’m trying to figure it out right now.
At the moment, my assumption is that the BoE’s special monetary operation probably won’t end when they say it will. I’m trying to work out what that means.
Get the hell out of Sterling, to the maximum extent possible? Maybe.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
What it might mean, though, is that the Labour vote share spikes (artificially) at the next GE and they take it as a firm mandate to do their own version of their hobby horse batshittery, with extreme Wokery and nannying.
They could come down again with a thud just as quick. But so be it.
Shall we join the Labour Party and try and influence them from the inside?
As a superficially brown chap, I could educate them.
I think this will end up with Truss and Kwarteng made to drop the 45p and bring forward the details before November in return for the party backing the growth plan and spending restraint in general.
It's not really about the 45p rate, although it probably won't yield much, that's just become mood music and the brand music - the real issue is the junking of the idea that the cost of debt and the size of the deficit matters.
Years ago, I worked on the Paul Simon for President campaign. (The Senator not the Singer.)
Who was an old-school New Deal Democrat who also was sponsor in US Senate of the Balanced Budget Amendment.
He had some early momentum in that campaign IIRC. At what point did you realise it was all slip slidin' away?
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
Crikey. Starmer is in landslide territory if this is reflected across Tory voters in general.
GE cannot come quick enough.
I fear I am in the same boat
I LOATHE Labour, and wokeness, and all of that, as you all know
But this could be my one and only vote for Labour ever (I hope). And, as it happens, for Keir Starmer MP
Enough. This is the shittiest of shit shows. The Tories need to go away and re-imagine what they want, in opposition, and boring Sir Keir needs to steady the ship of state. And tell the Scot Nats to fuck off
Im in Clive Lewis constituency, he can fuck off. I'll vote Reform if they stand, Green if not (as they may well take second in a Tory metdown here)
what could really move things now amongst the oaps is tory incompetence threatened pensions....suddenly it starts to hit home for the oaps who think they are sitting pretty in mortgage free houses and being out of the workforce
Do we know the Daily Mail front page for tomorrow?
Britain’s new government may already be dead in the water. It has shredded its own reputation and poisoned the politics of growth https://econ.st/3dUF3GD
A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.
In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend
In the words of TSE, 'legendary modesty' etc.
However yes getting rid of Johnson and Sunak going has been a complete disaster for the Tories. It was as strong a partnership for the Conservatives as Blair and Brown was for Labour and once that broke up Labour failed to win a general election for now 15 years and counting and on this week's events sadly I fear the Tories face a similar fate unless the likely Starmer Labour government really mucks up
As the BoE intervention expires in 13 days, what is the PB stock club thinking about personal investment strategy?
Does it all kick off again? What to sell and what to buy? Are we really heading for a crash like March 2020 or the GFC?
Yes. I’m trying to figure it out right now.
At the moment, my assumption is that the BoE’s special monetary operation probably won’t end when they say it will. I’m trying to work out what that means.
Get the hell out of Sterling, to the maximum extent possible? Maybe.
A global crash is imminent, regardless of what happens here short term. Its shit here but its also, concurrently shit out there, everywhere
A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.
In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend
In the words of TSE, 'legendary modesty' etc.
However yes getting rid of Johnson and Sunak going has been a complete disaster for the Tories. It was as strong a partnership for the Conservatives as Blair and Brown was for Labour and once that broke up Labour failed to win a general election for now 15 years and counting and on this week's events sadly I fear the Tories face a similar fate unless the likely Starmer Labour government really mucks up
To be fair. You did warn your erstwhile fellow Conservatives
OT. Faisal Islam has to be the best financial commentator around at the moment. No histrionics but explains himself clearly. There hasn't been anyone as good since Stephanie Flanders
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
Crikey. Starmer is in landslide territory if this is reflected across Tory voters in general.
GE cannot come quick enough.
He is in landslide territory.
I’ve never felt so horrified by the tories that I’d absolutely vote for Labour. I am actively wishing Starmer on. I have never voted Labour before.
He is. Lab majority would be value at evens. It is 2/1.
As the BoE intervention expires in 13 days, what is the PB stock club thinking about personal investment strategy?
Does it all kick off again? What to sell and what to buy? Are we really heading for a crash like March 2020 or the GFC?
Yes. I’m trying to figure it out right now.
At the moment, my assumption is that the BoE’s special monetary operation probably won’t end when they say it will. I’m trying to work out what that means.
Get the hell out of Sterling, to the maximum extent possible? Maybe.
A global crash is imminent, regardless of what happens here short term. Its shit here but its also, concurrently shit out there, everywhere
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
Truss is doing/wants to do the kind of things that Cameron should have done in 2010. Obviously we’re in a different situation now which makes it much harder, but it’s not crazy.
It’s crazy to do it 12 years into a government with 0 mandate.
She has absolutely no right to implement the chaos we see. If she is so confident in herself, call a GE
In the end this is the difference between Truss and Thatcher. Thatcher did have a mandate. The only mandate Truss has is from the membership of the Conservative Party. The economic situation that supposedly requires urgent correction is one that was created almost completely by the current government, of which she is the longest serving member.
A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.
In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend
In the words of TSE, 'legendary modesty' etc.
However yes getting rid of Johnson and Sunak going has been a complete disaster for the Tories. It was as strong a partnership for the Conservatives as Blair and Brown was for Labour and once that broke up Labour failed to win a general election for now 15 years and counting and on this week's events sadly I fear the Tories face a similar fate unless the likely Starmer Labour government really mucks up
Well, on the "upside" I seriously doubt Starmer will enjoy benign economic conditions. He will become very unpopular very quickly. A Prime Minister of Deep Austerity. Not Tony Blair with his golden economic legacy handing out the dosh
I predict he will valiantly give us our medicine, not do it particularly well, then he will be kicked out for his pains, in 2028-9
OT. Faisal Islam has to be the best financial commentator around at the moment. No histrionics but explains himself clearly. There hasn't been anyone as good since Stephanie Flanders
As the BoE intervention expires in 13 days, what is the PB stock club thinking about personal investment strategy?
Does it all kick off again? What to sell and what to buy? Are we really heading for a crash like March 2020 or the GFC?
I would say not and if there is any risk that it will the intervention will be extended. This is not a good situation and, as the government has just discovered, we have a lot less room for manouvre than we thought but it still doesn't feel anything like as bad as 2008/9. That was genuinely frightening.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
What it might mean, though, is that the Labour vote share spikes (artificially) at the next GE and they take it as a firm mandate to do their own version of their hobby horse batshittery, with extreme Wokery and nannying.
They could come down again with a thud just as quick. But so be it.
Hopefully the quick suspension of Rupa Huq may point to a not-so-woke future?
Only if Labour de select her for the next GE
Huw was awful, I have no problem with deselecting her.
Let's hope too that Rob Roberts and Chris Pincher are also deselected for the next election
A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.
In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend
In the words of TSE, 'legendary modesty' etc.
However yes getting rid of Johnson and Sunak going has been a complete disaster for the Tories. It was as strong a partnership for the Conservatives as Blair and Brown was for Labour and once that broke up Labour failed to win a general election for now 15 years and counting and on this week's events sadly I fear the Tories face a similar fate unless the likely Starmer Labour government really mucks up
The harder question is whether, once Johnson was pushed out, there was any way of stopping Truss or a Trussalike replacing him.
As the BoE intervention expires in 13 days, what is the PB stock club thinking about personal investment strategy?
Does it all kick off again? What to sell and what to buy? Are we really heading for a crash like March 2020 or the GFC?
Yes. I’m trying to figure it out right now.
At the moment, my assumption is that the BoE’s special monetary operation probably won’t end when they say it will. I’m trying to work out what that means.
Get the hell out of Sterling, to the maximum extent possible? Maybe.
A global crash is imminent, regardless of what happens here short term. Its shit here but its also, concurrently shit out there, everywhere
But just not quite as.
This week, yes. Once they have finished screwing us then focus will move to the Euro which is at 20 year lows against the dollar (up a bit today though). The ECB failure to act at all has left Europe ready to implode and the energy crisis is going to be absolutely brutal. Central banks have almost no ammo left. Its bleaker and weaker than 2008
Looks like the Ukrainians have surrounded Lyman. From an amateur map observer it looks like Ukraine are pushing for another encirclement further North too.
SitRep Lyman/Kupyansk - 28/09 - Thread
Lyman: what do we know?
✅Visual confirmation of AFU 🇺🇦 control over Novoselivka, Zelena Dolyna ➡️AFU 🇺🇦 reportedly reached the Zherebets river at Nevs'ke, Novolyubivka and Ivanivka ➡️AFU 🇺🇦 is advancing on Stavky road north of Lyman
That was how the Hundred Days in 1918 worked - advances made Into the weak areas, creating salients. Either the Germans retreated or got caught. And it went on and on….
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
Truss is doing/wants to do the kind of things that Cameron should have done in 2010. Obviously we’re in a different situation now which makes it much harder, but it’s not crazy.
It’s crazy to do it 12 years into a government with 0 mandate.
She has absolutely no right to implement the chaos we see. If she is so confident in herself, call a GE
In the end this is the difference between Truss and Thatcher. Thatcher did have a mandate. The only mandate Truss has is from the membership of the Conservative Party. The economic situation that supposedly requires urgent correction is one that was created almost completely by the current government, of which she is the longest serving member.
I don't think a questgion of mandate. I think governments are entitled to change direction without a fresh election, though the Lords in particular can certainly feel perfectly obliged to take into account the lack of democratic endorsement, such as exists.
What was barmy was doing this with evidently no clear plan on how to prepare people and businesses for it, quite obviously no idea that it might be received negatively and no immediate response to that, and now no urgency to take any action even though they appear to have completely demolish their own argument for doing it, as very few people indeed think we'll get growth as a result of this, even if they don't think it will be disaster.
I was genuinely surprised to learn today that Allister Heath is the actual editor of the Sunday Telegraph. I’d always assumed he was one of those batshit libertarian fundie columnists, a bit like a City boy version of Hannan, that editors commission to liven up the oped pages.
Where is HYUFD tonight ? He will surely always hold out, as the benchmark test of the Tories staying above critical mass.
If HYUFD were to abandon Essex Conservatism, my monocle would fall into my whisky, I would be shocked and appalled, and the world just wouldn't be right anymore.
A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.
In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend
In the words of TSE, 'legendary modesty' etc.
However yes getting rid of Johnson and Sunak going has been a complete disaster for the Tories. It was as strong a partnership for the Conservatives as Blair and Brown was for Labour and once that broke up Labour failed to win a general election for now 15 years and counting and on this week's events sadly I fear the Tories face a similar fate unless the likely Starmer Labour government really mucks up
Well, on the "upside" I seriously doubt Starmer will enjoy benign economic conditions. He will become very unpopular very quickly. A Prime Minister of Deep Austerity. Not Tony Blair with his golden economic legacy handing out the dosh
I predict he will valiantly give us our medicine, not do it particularly well, then he will be kicked out for his pains, in 2028-9
The timing may well suit him. The next two years will be economically awful, but all things pass and by 2025 things will pick up, and he can gain the credit. He does seem to be a lucky general.
A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.
In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend
In the words of TSE, 'legendary modesty' etc.
However yes getting rid of Johnson and Sunak going has been a complete disaster for the Tories. It was as strong a partnership for the Conservatives as Blair and Brown was for Labour and once that broke up Labour failed to win a general election for now 15 years and counting and on this week's events sadly I fear the Tories face a similar fate unless the likely Starmer Labour government really mucks up
How quickly we forget that Johnson had already trashed the reputation of the Tories for anything approaching competence.
Ok, fair enough, Truss turned disaster into catastrophe, as you and others predicted.
I think this will end up with Truss and Kwarteng made to drop the 45p and bring forward the details before November in return for the party backing the growth plan and spending restraint in general.
It's not really about the 45p rate, although it probably won't yield much, that's just become mood music and the brand music - the real issue is the junking of the idea that the cost of debt and the size of the deficit matters.
Years ago, I worked on the Paul Simon for President campaign. (The Senator not the Singer.)
Who was an old-school New Deal Democrat who also was sponsor in US Senate of the Balanced Budget Amendment.
He had some early momentum in that campaign IIRC. At what point did you realise it was all slip slidin' away?
When he came in (or rather was declared) second in the 1988 Iowa precinct caucuses behind Dick Gephardt (remember him?) Which did NOT help him shortly thereafter in New Hampshire Primary, and loss their doomed him from then one from coast to coast.
Except for a Last Hurrah in the Illinois Primary. In his own state, Simon was opposed in Democratic primary only by Al Gore (then a moderate-conservative) and Jesse Jackson (based in Chicago). He beat the two of them like a gong, but then got 5% or so in Wisconsin and he was out.
Senator Simon had actually wanted to end his POTUS campaign after South Dakota (also single digits) but was dissuaded by the many Illinois politicos who had signed on to run as Simon delegates for the national convention. They insisted (somewhat insistently) that he remain in the race until AFTER the Illinois Primary.
Should add that Simon almost always had the backing of the Daley machine (father and son) but was NOT a machine hack. Instead, he was supported because he was NOT a hack, but rather the opposite.
Also reason why I never met anyone from Illinois - Republican or Democrat or whatever - who ever had a bad word to say about Paul Simon.
Currently you can count me in the 12% Con - Lab switcher.
Max is a big switch, an intelligent chap making the rational choice. Welcome to the fold Max!
Be careful what you wish for. When people like Max leave the Opposition (and the Tories will be in Opposition soon) it become feeble and ineffective, and the last thing any Country needs is feeble opposition to the Government.
I would merely be lending my vote to Labour to precipitate and end to this shambles which is destroying both country and party. The Tories now need a spell of opposition to better understand what the nation wants. Being in government has made them blinkered and drunk on power.
Even I'm thinking about and I've opposed Labour my whole life.
That tells you how serious I find the current situation. And I haven't changed my values.
The incumbent administration is fucking crazy.
I'm voting Labour too, I've realised Starmer is going to need a majority to sort out this mess.
We cannot risk a hung parliament with the SNP playing silly beggars.
What it might mean, though, is that the Labour vote share spikes (artificially) at the next GE and they take it as a firm mandate to do their own version of their hobby horse batshittery, with extreme Wokery and nannying.
They could come down again with a thud just as quick. But so be it.
Shall we join the Labour Party and try and influence them from the inside?
As a superficially brown chap, I could educate them.
A huge % of the fiscal incontinence hammering the pound is the Sunak-Johnson legacy of unconditional spend on imported fuel. It was politically handy for the opposition to make it about the negligible 45% take, but Labour is equally committed to sterling doom right now.
In retrospect, @HYUFD has been completely vindicated. The Tories should've stuck with Boris, and ignored the critics. He has enormous human flaws, but he did not destroy the Tory party and bankrupt the country in a single weekend
In the words of TSE, 'legendary modesty' etc.
However yes getting rid of Johnson and Sunak going has been a complete disaster for the Tories. It was as strong a partnership for the Conservatives as Blair and Brown was for Labour and once that broke up Labour failed to win a general election for now 15 years and counting and on this week's events sadly I fear the Tories face a similar fate unless the likely Starmer Labour government really mucks up
Yes, but fuck off. You offer us a choice between a lying thieving chancer and a mad woman and preen yourself for having recommended we stick with the chancer. Legendary modesty my fucking arse, you nasty conniving little opportunist.
what could really move things now amongst the oaps is tory incompetence threatened pensions....suddenly it starts to hit home for the oaps who think they are sitting pretty in mortgage free houses and being out of the workforce
Do we know the Daily Mail front page for tomorrow?
There was a post this afternoon indicating that the cost of the intervention in the gilt market was £1.025bn. I suggested at the time that the decimal point was in the wrong place but £65bn seems a lot. That is something like what we pumped into the RBS , at least in nominal terms.
What was barmy was doing this with evidently no clear plan on how to prepare people and businesses for it, quite obviously no idea that it might be received negatively and no immediate response to that, and now no urgency to take any action even though they appear to have completely demolish their own argument for doing it, as very few people indeed think we'll get growth as a result of this, even if they don't think it will be disaster.
They think they are right, and expect everyone to agree with them.
They are still claiming this is a comms issue. if they explain their brilliance better, people will get on board.
Where is HYUFD tonight ? He would surely always holdout.
If HYUFD were to abandon Essex Conservatism, my monocle would fall into my whisky, I would be shocked and appalled, and the world just wouldn't be right anymore.
But surely he won't.
I think he’ll hold his nose. To give him his credit he has consistently warned against Truss.
The PB true blue now consists merely of three Russian bots, a man awaiting trial for axe murdering his llama, and BartyBobbins.
Where is HYUFD tonight ? He will surely always hold out, as the test of the Tories going below critical mass.
If HYUFD were to abandon Essex Conservatism, my monocle would fall into my whisky, I would be shocked and appalled, and the world just wouldn't be right anymore.
It seems to me that we’re in the scenario I outlined almost two years ago, the one that Starmer could win an election from. None of the other candidates would be able to do what he has done.
I suppose I’m saying that I’m glad I voted for him but we’ve also got very lucky.
I think Starmer will be a very popular PM. Because he will look wonderful compared to what has gone before
Yes, he will, for about 3 weeks. Until he has to do the necessary
He hasn't got the charisma needed to be a severe doctor giving you enemas, like Thatcher. He's a tolerably dull hired consultant, with a weirdly squeaky pen, who will bore you from minute 10 and then deeply irritate you after a quarter of an hour and then you will want to murder him after 1 hour max
Where is HYUFD tonight ? He will surely always hold out, as the test of the Tories staying above critical mass.
If HYUFD were to abandon Essex Conservatism, my monocle would fall into my whisky, I would be shocked and appalled, and the world just wouldn't be right anymore.
But surely he wouldn't.
HYUFD was ahead of the game in saying Truss was a sub-optimal choice.
I think Starmer will be a very popular PM. Because he will look wonderful compared to what has gone before
Yes, he will, for about 3 weeks. Until he has to do the necessary
He hasn't got the charisma needed to be a severe doctor giving you enemas, like Thatcher. He's a tolerably dull hired consultant, with a weirdly squeaky pen, who will bore you from minute 10 and then deeply irritate you after a quarter of an hour and then you will want to murder him after 1 hour max
That's our political future
You’ve hated him since the day he was elected. So forgive me if I take your views with a giant grain of salt
It's v hard to find independent market participants who agree with No10's diagnosis that recent lurches in gilts and the £ had nothing to do with Fri's statement. Some say the BoE's 0.5% move on Thurs may have contributed, at the margin. But govt's view on this is... an outlier. https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1575234669708480512
Where is HYUFD tonight ? He will surely always hold out, as the test of the Tories staying above critical mass.
If HYUFD were to abandon Essex Conservatism, my monocle would fall into my whisky, I would be shocked and appalled, and the world just wouldn't be right anymore.
But surely he wouldn't.
HYUFD was ahead of the game in saying Truss was a sub-optimal choice.
No he fucking wasn't. Everybody said that, many of them earlier and more cogently than him.
DM front page at last. Hmm, massive dead giant squirrel* and female hominine pic, and only mention of pensions is to blame some City wide boys or something.
Looks like the Ukrainians have surrounded Lyman. From an amateur map observer it looks like Ukraine are pushing for another encirclement further North too.
SitRep Lyman/Kupyansk - 28/09 - Thread
Lyman: what do we know?
✅Visual confirmation of AFU 🇺🇦 control over Novoselivka, Zelena Dolyna ➡️AFU 🇺🇦 reportedly reached the Zherebets river at Nevs'ke, Novolyubivka and Ivanivka ➡️AFU 🇺🇦 is advancing on Stavky road north of Lyman
That was how the Hundred Days in 1918 worked - advances made Into the weak areas, creating salients. Either the Germans retreated or got caught. And it went on and on….
Mud season is just beginning though. Take a look at this tank destroyed today:
Not much is going to be moving off the tarmac there soon, at least until the frost starts. A problem for logistics and manoeuvre for both sides.
Comments
They could come down again with a thud just as quick. But so be it.
Churchill in this context is the Headington/East Oxford area around the hospital, not the little village in NW Oxfordshire.
It means they have decided to simply deny reality and lie to the public.
https://twitter.com/Rob_Merrick/status/1575144324769120261?t=Xb9eV-xWetH1EWOJJ2mOxA&s=19
Liz Truss has spoken today to Ukraine's president about the ongoing crisis
Zelensky promised to provide all the assistance he could
https://twitter.com/Liztruss/status/1575098230626721793?t=xQMASmJWILfE2kVy605YpQ&s=19
I’m honestly beginning to think maybe you lot are right & I would do a better job 🤦🏻♀️
Adding the other bits to the mini budget triggered it’s own economic crisis
The blerk is a poundshop Tebbit
I suspect many are in Tory/Lib Dem swing seats.
We vote for the party with policies that will lead to stability and prosperity economically. Historically that has been the Conservative Party. But it clearly is not now.
The Conservatives do not own my vote. And they certainly lost it this week.
Not sure IF Jesus would say, they know not what they do. But pretty sure He'd have wept.
FT tells No10/11 to “rethink its ill-conceived growth plan, and reverse a significant portion of its tax cuts.”
“This will carry a big political cost — but not doing so might now be even more costly.”
https://www.ft.com/content/c6499193-5b6e-42cb-bb99-084e29236791
But you can hear the mountain creaking for sure.
Being optimistic, Truss screwing up this badly this quickly is a good thing. Maybe the kebab moment is about to happen, and this Conservative government can be left with the grim duty of checking the country into the economic equivalent of the Priory. We then give Starmer a modern Doctor's Mandate and the Conservatives can't complain about it. And by 2029, the fogs are starting to clear.
Can the UK electorate stay on the wagon? I hope so, but the recent results from Italy make me nervous.
But she can’t. Or won’t. That might change.
But they will drop the 45p. As Hodges has been saying all day. Why not do it now rather than drag it out for two more torrid weeks and then do it anyway as they will have to.
Truss is the most libertarian PM, economically laissez faire but socially liberal, we have ever had. However I for one will still support the party, this experiment will not last for ever it will either succeed or fail
NEW: As Chancellor, Rishi Sunak said benefits would rise by inflation
Now, the government is no longer committing to that https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1575221715642220545
Finance traders make money by successfully going against consensus opinion.
Remember Jo Cox
SitRep Lyman/Kupyansk - 28/09 - Thread
Lyman: what do we know?
✅Visual confirmation of AFU 🇺🇦 control over Novoselivka, Zelena Dolyna
➡️AFU 🇺🇦 reportedly reached the Zherebets river at Nevs'ke, Novolyubivka and Ivanivka
➡️AFU 🇺🇦 is advancing on Stavky road north of Lyman
1/X
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1575224760824627200
I LOATHE Labour, and wokeness, and all of that, as you all know
But this could be my one and only vote for Labour ever (I hope). And, as it happens, for Keir Starmer MP
Enough. This is the shittiest of shit shows. The Tories need to go away and re-imagine what they want, in opposition, and boring Sir Keir needs to steady the ship of state. And tell the Scot Nats to fuck off
https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/metro-front-page-2022-09-29/
Who was an old-school New Deal Democrat who also was sponsor in US Senate of the Balanced Budget Amendment.
As a superficially brown chap, I could educate them.
https://labour.org.uk/members/why-join-labour/
Does it all kick off again? What to sell and what to buy? Are we really heading for a crash like March 2020 or the GFC?
KEY WEST, Fla. — Eko Kereselidze looked out at the huge stretch of water nipping at her front door on Wednesday and wondered what to do next. Hurricane Ian had flooded her street in Key West just to her front step, and the authorities were predicting even worse storm surges through Friday during high tides.
She contemplated going to a nearby hotel, even if just to crash in the lobby or upper floors.
“I don’t know what we are going to do,” Ms. Kereselidze said. “It was so bad. It was so scary, because I can’t swim.”
In Monroe County, Florida’s southernmost county, which includes the Keys, officials were warning people that the danger had not subsided, even though the storm had already passed through.
At least 6.6 inches of rain had fallen in the county, according to Kirsten Livengood, a spokeswoman for the county, where the waters rose two feet higher than normal.
Ms. Kereselidze and a friend, Dea Tinikashvili, had prepared for the storm as best they could, storing important documents in vacuum-sealed plastic and propping large appliances up off the ground in their carport. The washer was up on bricks, and the clothes dryer on a chair. All around them: water.
At one point during the storm, they found a man standing in the pelting rain, holding bags of his belongings. His home had flooded and he had fled on foot. They took the stranger in.
Elizabeth Cifuentes, a housekeeper, and her roommate, Vinicio Ochoa, who works in landscaping, were trapped inside their nearby apartment, waiting for the water to recede.
“How did I spend the night? With fear!” Ms. Cifuentes said. “The water was up to here,” she added, pointing to the front step.
Flooding is not uncommon in Key West, but neither Ms. Cifuentes nor Mr. Ochoa said they could recall things ever getting this bad. For the last big storm in the area, Hurricane Irma in 2017, they fled to Orlando.
Mr. Ochoa said everyone was calling him on Wednesday to come work and help clean up the masses of broken tree branches that were now peppering the city. His car started up, despite having spent the night in standing water, but it was still surrounded by water and he was unable to move it.
“I think it’s still too windy out here to work” he said. “What If I get hit in the head with a flying branch?”
Addendum - Hurricane Ian just made a second landfall, this time on the Florida mainland near the southwestern city of Punta Gorda. Ian had maximum sustained winds estimated at 145 m.p.h., according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm first hit Florida at Cayo Costa, a barrier island west of Fort Myers.
SSI - note that Ian is moving slowly, and is expected to remain over Florida for the next day or so, before it heads out into the Atlantic near Jacksonville. With rainfall AND storm surge expected to get worse before they get better, in part due to shifting winds as counter-cyclical storm proceeds in generally NNW direction across the peninsula.
At the moment, my assumption is that the BoE’s special monetary operation probably won’t end when they say it will. I’m trying to work out what that means.
Get the hell out of Sterling, to the maximum extent possible? Maybe.
However yes getting rid of Johnson and Sunak going has been a complete disaster for the Tories. It was as strong a partnership for the Conservatives as Blair and Brown was for Labour and once that broke up Labour failed to win a general election for now 15 years and counting and on this week's events sadly I fear the Tories face a similar fate unless the likely Starmer Labour government really mucks up
I predict he will valiantly give us our medicine, not do it particularly well, then he will be kicked out for his pains, in 2028-9
Let's hope too that Rob Roberts and Chris Pincher are also deselected for the next election
Once they have finished screwing us then focus will move to the Euro which is at 20 year lows against the dollar (up a bit today though). The ECB failure to act at all has left Europe ready to implode and the energy crisis is going to be absolutely brutal.
Central banks have almost no ammo left.
Its bleaker and weaker than 2008
What was barmy was doing this with evidently no clear plan on how to prepare people and businesses for it, quite obviously no idea that it might be received negatively and no immediate response to that, and now no urgency to take any action even though they appear to have completely demolish their own argument for doing it, as very few people indeed think we'll get growth as a result of this, even if they don't think it will be disaster.
(http://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1575233258144792577 refers.)
If HYUFD were to abandon Essex Conservatism, my monocle would fall into my whisky, I would be shocked and appalled, and the world just wouldn't be right anymore.
But surely he wouldn't.
Ok, fair enough, Truss turned disaster into catastrophe, as you and others predicted.
Except for a Last Hurrah in the Illinois Primary. In his own state, Simon was opposed in Democratic primary only by Al Gore (then a moderate-conservative) and Jesse Jackson (based in Chicago). He beat the two of them like a gong, but then got 5% or so in Wisconsin and he was out.
Senator Simon had actually wanted to end his POTUS campaign after South Dakota (also single digits) but was dissuaded by the many Illinois politicos who had signed on to run as Simon delegates for the national convention. They insisted (somewhat insistently) that he remain in the race until AFTER the Illinois Primary.
Should add that Simon almost always had the backing of the Daley machine (father and son) but was NOT a machine hack. Instead, he was supported because he was NOT a hack, but rather the opposite.
Also reason why I never met anyone from Illinois - Republican or Democrat or whatever - who ever had a bad word to say about Paul Simon.
Pray for me.
They are still claiming this is a comms issue. if they explain their brilliance better, people will get on board.
Or something
To give him his credit he has consistently warned against Truss.
The PB true blue now consists merely of three Russian bots, a man awaiting trial for axe murdering his llama, and BartyBobbins.
I suppose I’m saying that I’m glad I voted for him but we’ve also got very lucky.
He hasn't got the charisma needed to be a severe doctor giving you enemas, like Thatcher. He's a tolerably dull hired consultant, with a weirdly squeaky pen, who will bore you from minute 10 and then deeply irritate you after a quarter of an hour and then you will want to murder him after 1 hour max
That's our political future
"They still don't understand the markets," says Eurasia Group's @Mij_Europe.
On @GlobalPlayer 📲 https://www.globalplayer.com/podcasts/episodes/7DreUL1/
@maitlis | @jonsopel https://twitter.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1575178111393714177/video/1
Some say the BoE's 0.5% move on Thurs may have contributed, at the margin.
But govt's view on this is... an outlier.
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1575234669708480512
DM front page at last. Hmm, massive dead giant squirrel* and female hominine pic, and only mention of pensions is to blame some City wide boys or something.
*https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ID9hcwX07iQ
Not much is going to be moving off the tarmac there soon, at least until the frost starts. A problem for logistics and manoeuvre for both sides.