politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The limits of private polling

NickPalmer said:

JosiasJessop said:

You accuse me of being too sure that I'm right. Well, I'll throw back that your position just appears to be one of supporting the party line. As ever. Tell me, how many times did you vote against the party whip in the thirteen years you were an MP?

35 times. And not enough. But as usual you ignore inconvenient parts of posts that you are responding to. I say I'm reluctantly in favour of bombing, you respond to ask if I'm in favour of bombing. I say I disagreed with my party over Libya, you respond that I always support the party line.

I'll leave you to it.

"But as usual you ignore inconvenient parts of posts that you are responding to."

Heh. I could say the same for you.

I'll give you Libya; you did disagree with your party there. But it still stands that your voting record was lamentable, although you were far from being the worst MP. Then again, I dislike the party system and the sheep-like MPs of all parties that it creates.

TSE Agree, and we need to wait for all the conferences to end to see the impact, but clearly Ed's speech will not be challenging JFK, MLK, even Thatcher or Kinnock in the greatest oratory of all time!

Tykejohnno said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Tykejohnno said:

Just watched the snow interview with ed and the labour front bench haven't a clue on economics,Christ they bad.

But I'm beginning to think,ed's ,shit hitting the fan proof ;-) can someone tell me when if ever we will see regular tory leads in the polls ;-)

Just asking,abit worried about me country ;-)

And you haven't a clue about punctuation and grammar!

Just watched the Snow interview with Ed, and the Labour Front Bench haven't a clue on economics. Christ, they are bad!

But I'm beginning to think, Ed's shit-hitting-the-fan-proof ;-)
Can someone tell me when, if ever, we will see regular Tory leads in the polls? ;-)

Just asking; a bit worried about my country ;-)

Give us a break Grammar Nazi ;-)

Is it that obvious I was brought up in a labour city ;-)

Sorry, I couldn't resist

Tomorrow is the seventh anniversary of Sion Simon's magnum opus, you know the one that said

'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'

Shall I do a thread on it tomorrow?

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase

Socrates said:

Where can I see the Jon Snow interview?

scan down the thread its there in at least two posts

MonikerDiCanio said:

Morris_Dancer said:

The Snow-MIliband interview is up here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4ygfbpHJGM

Why has EdM been hospitalized?

Socrates,ed interview here.

JosiasJessop said:

The fact that you are thankful that the mass-murdering, chemical-weapon using, terrorist supporting, hereditary madman is winning the war is enough.

And I see you dodge the OPCW issue.

Idiotic Orwellian doublespeak. Everyone in this thread knows it is the West and its allies who have supported terrorists in the region -to say it's Assad is simply you hoping if you tell a big enough lie enough times you'll get away with it. The rebels have also been the ones shown to be using chemical weapons -they are after all the people who we are now being asked to bomb. Hereditary mad man? Utter barrel scraping desperation.

People should watch this on the genisis of the entire Syrian conflict:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwv7JXgPxLI&list=PLqQQFOVUZBLjYqXyt5LCbK3TDDqh8s_8r
The first man speaking in the video has now been murdered.

I would ask you to watch it if I thought for a second you were actively seeking facts rather than pursuing an agenda.

isam said:

Britain Elects (@britainelects)
24/09/2014 21:17
Best party to control immigration (ComRes):
UKIP - 43%
CON - 16%
LAB - 12%
LDEM - 4%
(DK) - 25%

ELBOW shows a 1.3% drop in UKIP support between 14th and 21st September.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh crap,

Another Ed disaster in the making or the Sun going too far?

Jim Waterson ‏@jimwaterson 33s

Miliband refuses Sun's offer to pose with a wristband, so the paper runs "Ed hates Help for Heroes" on front page.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ByU_CZJCEAIubwu.png

This will backfire on the Sun like berating Brown's letter to the mother of a deceased soldier did.

Nick Robinson BBC1 interview far more damaging for Miliband as it's got 10 times the audience of C4.

Not much Miliband could have done but Robinson just made Miliband look hopeless for not mentioning the deficit.

Robinson also said the Child Benefit 1% cap would save one thousandth of the deficit.

Ed on BBC with Robinson wasn't pretty either. Truly breathtaking lack of grasp of what he would face in No 10 ( or utter duplicity in pretending it'll be all ok on the night, while concealing the facts).

This man may well actually represent us in Beijing and Washington and Brussels. Just scary.

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh crap,

Another Ed disaster in the making or the Sun going too far?

Jim Waterson ‏@jimwaterson 33s

Miliband refuses Sun's offer to pose with a wristband, so the paper runs "Ed hates Help for Heroes" on front page.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ByU_CZJCEAIubwu.png

This will backfire on the Sun like berating Brown's letter to the mother of a deceased soldier did.

Agree.

Luckyguy1983 said:

JosiasJessop said:

The fact that you are thankful that the mass-murdering, chemical-weapon using, terrorist supporting, hereditary madman is winning the war is enough.

And I see you dodge the OPCW issue.

Idiotic Orwellian doublespeak. Everyone in this thread knows it is the West and its allies who have supported terrorists in the region -to say it's Assad is simply you hoping if you tell a big enough lie enough times you'll get away with it. The rebels have also been the ones shown to be using chemical weapons -they are after all the people who we are now being asked to bomb. Hereditary mad man? Utter barrel scraping desperation.

People should watch this on the genisis of the entire Syrian conflict:
(snip)

I would ask you to watch it if I thought for a second you were actively seeking facts rather than pursuing an agenda.

I've got no agenda related to this, real or hidden. You're welcome to think otherwise.

SquareRoot said:

Does Ed Miliband have insurance? He needs it after that car crash of an interview..

It is of course entirely possible that EdM cannot drive Labour any lower through his own ratings. His negatives may not be capable of lowering the number anymore. Will GE 2015 be another election similar to GE 2010 etc where the Labour party Leader is omitted from Labour's election material?

If I was Miliband I would sit down for one full day and I would go through and make sure I knew every major figure re the public finances:

Deficit
Debt
Total public spending
Health budget
Education
Welfare
Defence
All major tax rates
etc etc

Remember Rachel Reeves didn't know what the state pension was the other day.

Journalists are going to think they've got an open goal if Miliband doesn't get a grip right now of every key figure.

But the question is - is he numerate? Is he capable of remembering numbers? Does he have a feel of how the numbers all fit together?

The smart thing to do would be to get Ed to wear a HfH wristband and then put up a picture on the Labour party twitter feed, "supporting Help for Heroes". Get's around being on the Sun front page and angering half of his activist base but still is seen to be supporting a worthwhile cause.

Still don't think it is a big deal though.

MikeL said:

If I was Miliband I would sit down for one full day and I would go through and make sure I knew every major figure re the public finances:

Deficit
Debt
Total public spending
Health budget
Education
Welfare
Defence
All major tax rates
etc etc

Remember Rachel Reeves didn't know what the state pension was the other day.

Journalists are going to think they've got an open goal if Miliband doesn't get a grip right now of every key figure.

But the question is - is he numerate? Is he capable of remembering numbers? Does he have a feel of how the numbers all fit together?

Rachel Reeves? Where?

@TSE

Regarding Sion Simon - oh, go on, then!

Did anyone read Richard Nabavi's feeble attempt to defend this government's record on Rotherham this morning ?

Posting multiple links to different versions of the same things in an attempt to make it look like they had done something.

No matter how many times you link to the same thing it doesn't help if it lacks all substance.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MikeL said:

If I was Miliband I would sit down for one full day and I would go through and make sure I knew every major figure re the public finances:

Deficit
Debt
Total public spending
Health budget
Education
Welfare
Defence
All major tax rates
etc etc

Remember Rachel Reeves didn't know what the state pension was the other day.

Journalists are going to think they've got an open goal if Miliband doesn't get a grip right now of every key figure.

But the question is - is he numerate? Is he capable of remembering numbers? Does he have a feel of how the numbers all fit together?

Rachel Reeves? Where?

Nick Ferrari show on LBC on Monday. Replayed on BBC2 Daily Politics.

manofkent2014 said:

You can tell its a bad day for Ed. Where are all are all the Labour lot?

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh crap,

Another Ed disaster in the making or the Sun going too far?

Jim Waterson ‏@jimwaterson 33s

Miliband refuses Sun's offer to pose with a wristband, so the paper runs "Ed hates Help for Heroes" on front page.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ByU_CZJCEAIubwu.png

This will backfire on the Sun like berating Brown's letter to the mother of a deceased soldier did.

Brown's sympathy was because of his poor eyesight. Other than bad judgement exactly what disability has Ed Miliband got?

He's got the right to not to wear what The Sun want him to, to drive their agenda.
Don't get me wrong, Milliband is a weapons grade c#¥#, but as a supporter of HfH myself, I can't get worked up over this. I got grief for telling a colleague who "nominated" me for that moronic Ice bucket thingy to knob off!

“For the 48 hours around David Cameron’s announcement on English votes, it was panic. Every option was considered. We were going to do English votes for English laws, an English parliament, and then we weren’t. It was like a democratic audit seminar.”

There is a worry that the past fortnight has been a foretaste of the election. “What you saw was what you will see in the short campaign,” said one.

Several sources said the real problem was the quality of many of the people around the leader. “I have never ever seen anything as dysfunctional. We make a decision. Then it’s reversed . . . It’s just the most chaotic organisation.”

Their collective eight-month job interview for Downing Street has begun.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4217190.ece

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MikeL said:

If I was Miliband I would sit down for one full day and I would go through and make sure I knew every major figure re the public finances:

Deficit
Debt
Total public spending
Health budget
Education
Welfare
Defence
All major tax rates
etc etc

Remember Rachel Reeves didn't know what the state pension was the other day.

Journalists are going to think they've got an open goal if Miliband doesn't get a grip right now of every key figure.

But the question is - is he numerate? Is he capable of remembering numbers? Does he have a feel of how the numbers all fit together?

Rachel Reeves? Where?

Here.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2766383/Whoops-Labour-s-shadow-pensions-minister-Rachel-Reeves-does-not-know-state-pension-worth.html

manofkent2014 said:

You can tell its a bad day for Ed. Where are all are all the Labour lot?

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh crap,

Another Ed disaster in the making or the Sun going too far?

Jim Waterson ‏@jimwaterson 33s

Miliband refuses Sun's offer to pose with a wristband, so the paper runs "Ed hates Help for Heroes" on front page.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ByU_CZJCEAIubwu.png

This will backfire on the Sun like berating Brown's letter to the mother of a deceased soldier did.

Brown's sympathy was because of his poor eyesight. Other than bad judgement exactly what disability has Ed Miliband got?

A face that only a mother could love?

After the fiasco with the Sun earlier in the summer, surely Ed Miliband and his team should have been prepared for a Sun stunt like this at their Conference and had a plan in place to avoid such a PR disaster?
BBC - Ed Miliband apologises for offence over Sun picture

"Ed Miliband has apologised for any offence caused after he posed with a copy of the Sun newspaper.

The Labour leader was pictured holding a special edition of the paper which was sent to millions of homes free to mark the start of the World Cup.

Labour MPs have criticised their leader for associating himself with the paper, which has long been criticised for its reporting of the Hillsborough disaster.

Mr Miliband said he "understood the anger" felt on Merseyside about it.

Groups representing victims and survivors of the 1989 tragedy expressed anger at Mr Miliband's actions, one describing them as an "absolute disgrace"."

___Bobajob___ said:

Scott_P said:

@Selkie: Miliband refuses to pose with Help for Heroes wristband. Ugly. http://t.co/7Y99C0Ltuc ht @suttonnick

What's your view of the likely outcome Scott? As usual, you don't say, preferring instead to retweet the drivel of others.

TwistedFireStopper said:

manofkent2014 said:

You can tell its a bad day for Ed. Where are all are all the Labour lot?

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh crap,

Another Ed disaster in the making or the Sun going too far?

Jim Waterson ‏@jimwaterson 33s

Miliband refuses Sun's offer to pose with a wristband, so the paper runs "Ed hates Help for Heroes" on front page.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ByU_CZJCEAIubwu.png

This will backfire on the Sun like berating Brown's letter to the mother of a deceased soldier did.

Brown's sympathy was because of his poor eyesight. Other than bad judgement exactly what disability has Ed Miliband got?

He's got the right to not to wear what The Sun want him to, to drive their agenda.
Don't get me wrong, Milliband is a weapons grade c#¥#, but as a supporter of HfH myself, I can't get worked up over this. I got grief for telling a colleague who "nominated" me for that moronic Ice bucket thingy to knob off!

Well said.

I can't stand any attempts at imposing organised groupthink.

Dai Havard (Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney) announces retirement for 2015. Born in 1950, first elected in 2001....I am not sure how many noticed him in these 13 years

TheScreamingEagles said:

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

In matches with a big fav, ht draw/full time fav is often value... But how often has it been 0-0 at ht and end up 7-0 ????

Wasn't there a Spurs match, that was nil nil at half time and ended 9-1 to Spurs.

Edit: Gah, it was 1 nil to Spurs at half time, and finished 9-1 to Spurs

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/8365091.stm

I backed jermaine Defoe first goalscorer that day

I backed Falcao first goalscorer this day

http://www.goal.com/en-gb/match/atlético-madrid-vs-deportivo-la-coruña/1323089/report

the previous day I had forgotten to put on £100 at 66/1 Ibisevic to score a hat trick for Stuttgart because I had such a bad hangover... Of course it copped... A bad birthday weekend

I always lose money in matches involving Wigan.

Wigan were top of my list of teams never to get involved with, City were the same until the money turned up.

Currently Southampton are not to be trusted.

My bogey side at the moment are Arsenal.

your bogey side, try being me!!!!

anotherDave said:

isam said:

Britain Elects (@britainelects)
24/09/2014 21:17
Best party to control immigration (ComRes):
UKIP - 43%
CON - 16%
LAB - 12%
LDEM - 4%
(DK) - 25%

UKIP leads across all social classes, and all age groups on that issue.

p.11 of the PDF
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/ITV_News_Index_24th_September_2014.pdf

Incredible that the party that got 3% in the last election can have such a lead on any issue

manofkent2014 said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

manofkent2014 said:

You can tell its a bad day for Ed. Where are all are all the Labour lot?

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh crap,

Another Ed disaster in the making or the Sun going too far?

Jim Waterson ‏@jimwaterson 33s

Miliband refuses Sun's offer to pose with a wristband, so the paper runs "Ed hates Help for Heroes" on front page.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ByU_CZJCEAIubwu.png

This will backfire on the Sun like berating Brown's letter to the mother of a deceased soldier did.

Brown's sympathy was because of his poor eyesight. Other than bad judgement exactly what disability has Ed Miliband got?

He's got the right to not to wear what The Sun want him to, to drive their agenda.
Don't get me wrong, Milliband is a weapons grade c#¥#, but as a supporter of HfH myself, I can't get worked up over this. I got grief for telling a colleague who "nominated" me for that moronic Ice bucket thingy to knob off!

That's not the point really Yes he has the right to do whatever he wants within the law but it will seem churlish to many not involving himself in this campaign because of concerns about what some of his party members think. It's also rather dumb (as much of his attitudes to the News International Group have been) because Hfh is a popular and uncontentious issue and as the last election proved the Sun is still probably the most influential paper there is particularly amongst Labour's core working class vote and whilst it can't win elections anymore it can still go along way to influencing the outcome in marginal seats.

This sort of photo opportunity, or the Ice bucket challenge are the modern politicians equivalent of baby kissing. Pointless but nessecary.

It is another example of how shambolic Eds media team is.

Scott_P said:

Doubts were growing yesterday over Labour’s mansion tax as experts warned that the plan was ill-conceived and based on “guesswork”.

Tim Knox , director of the Centre for Policy Studies think-tank, said: “The mansion tax plays very well with the Labour party and wider public sense of ‘them and us’, but it’s quite clear it’s not a real policy. A real policy has proper numbers, real methodology and a real impact assessment. This has none of them.”

He warned that the tax could be “incredibly damaging” to London and its place in the global economy. “It’s hard to think of something that raises such an insignificant amount of money which could cause such a significant amount of damage.”

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4217249.ece

Scott, let me explain:

Taxing rich people in central London is popular.

There is very limited sympathy for foreign oligarchs, foreign bankers and foreign footballers.

@audreyanne
"You need to learn not to mess with the media"

Indeed not, politicians would be well advised to remember who their masters are.

manofkent2014 said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

manofkent2014 said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

manofkent2014 said:

You can tell its a bad day for Ed. Where are all are all the Labour lot?

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh crap,

Another Ed disaster in the making or the Sun going too far?

Jim Waterson ‏@jimwaterson 33s

Miliband refuses Sun's offer to pose with a wristband, so the paper runs "Ed hates Help for Heroes" on front page.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ByU_CZJCEAIubwu.png

This will backfire on the Sun like berating Brown's letter to the mother of a deceased soldier did.

Brown's sympathy was because of his poor eyesight. Other than bad judgement exactly what disability has Ed Miliband got?

He's got the right to not to wear what The Sun want him to, to drive their agenda.
Don't get me wrong, Milliband is a weapons grade c#¥#, but as a supporter of HfH myself, I can't get worked up over this. I got grief for telling a colleague who "nominated" me for that moronic Ice bucket thingy to knob off!

That's not the point really Yes he has the right to do whatever he wants within the law but it will seem churlish to many not involving himself in this campaign because of concerns about what some of his party members think. It's also rather dumb (as much of his attitudes to the News International Group have been) because Hfh is a popular and uncontentious issue and as the last election proved the Sun is still probably the most influential paper there is particularly amongst Labour's core working class vote and whilst it can't win elections anymore it can still go along way to influencing the outcome in marginal seats.

The point is, that there is no point to this. It's X Factor politics, and if we've really sunk so low that Milliband not doing The Sun's bidding is important, we're in trouble.

They've been playing X Factor politics for a decade or more from what I recall. We've been in trouble for quite a long time now....

Yes, you're right on that. Maybe it's time to call a halt? I think we deserve better.

You didn't think the Sun Editorial team were going to just forget about Ed Miliband's very public apology for posing with a copy of their newspaper? And in asking that question of me, you missed the entire point of my post. Why aren't you directing that question at Ed Miliband's team of SPADS who get paid handsomely to avoid these PR disasters?

David Cameron has just been caught bang to rights after being recorded indiscreetly discussing the Queen's reaction to the Indy Referendum result. His apology has made the front page of tomorrow's Daily Mail - Forgive me, your majesty: Cameron's humbling apology after boasting that Queen 'purred down the phone' to him over Scots vote

"David Cameron issued a humbling apology to the Queen last night for letting slip her ecstatic reaction to the Scottish referendum result.

The Prime Minister said he was ‘very embarrassed’ and ‘extremely sorry’ to have revealed the Queen’s private views during a conversation he did not know was being picked up by microphones.

His public apology to the monarch is thought to be without precedent for a serving premier. He said he would be following it up with a personal phone call."

___Bobajob___ said:

fitalass said:

After the fiasco with the Sun earlier in the summer, surely Ed Miliband and his team should have been prepared for a Sun stunt like this at their Conference and had a plan in place to avoid such a PR disaster?
BBC - Ed Miliband apologises for offence over Sun picture

"Ed Miliband has apologised for any offence caused after he posed with a copy of the Sun newspaper.

The Labour leader was pictured holding a special edition of the paper which was sent to millions of homes free to mark the start of the World Cup.

Labour MPs have criticised their leader for associating himself with the paper, which has long been criticised for its reporting of the Hillsborough disaster.

Mr Miliband said he "understood the anger" felt on Merseyside about it.

Groups representing victims and survivors of the 1989 tragedy expressed anger at Mr Miliband's actions, one describing them as an "absolute disgrace"."

___Bobajob___ said:

Scott_P said:

@Selkie: Miliband refuses to pose with Help for Heroes wristband. Ugly. http://t.co/7Y99C0Ltuc ht @suttonnick

What's your view of the likely outcome Scott? As usual, you don't say, preferring instead to retweet the drivel of others.

So what do you suggest he did today then?

If this is a "stunt" by the Sun as you say, it's a pretty sick one, given it is for a charity for injured soldiers