It is Douglas Carsewell who has currently left his former constituents without any form of Westminster representation in a vote on this issue now Parliament has been recalled. And its also Douglas Carsewell who has chosen to self indulgently put his constituents through a costly by-election as a UKIP political stunt just months before a GE.
Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) 24/09/2014 19:44 Around 1,000 people have turned out for Ukip mtg in Clacton w/ @DouglasCarswell@Nigel_Farage --> #Ukipconf14 pic.twitter.com/4GdYbd29cj
Clacton is in the bag. We would throw the kitchen sink at H & M.
If you'd like to meet, I plan to return on Saturday 4 th Ocober.
Parliament recalled over air strikes on Islamic State in Iraq
Cammo trying to drown out the start of the UKIP Conference in Doncaster? It won't help him or any of the Lab/Lib/Con team.
You're not helping damp down the perception of Kippers as fruitcakes with comments like that!
I Know it's the Tories and Cammo that are the true nut-cases. Even Nick Robinson agrees with me that the recall on Friday is a put up job to spoil the UKIP conference opening. Cammo waited all this time to recall parliament, he could have waited until Monday.
Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson 7m Choreography of consensus on bombing IS clear - nothing during Lab Conf, at request of Iraq, not to include Syria & vote during UKIP Conf
I see UKIP have taken to wearing the SNP's used victim mantle.
The country's elected representatives are discussing going to war. Move your bloody conference if it means that much to dominate a news cycle.
Up your too. The Lab/Lib/Con tribe leading us to a low level confrontation and suckers like MM are now calling it WW3.
The "liblabcon" thing always reminds me of that old logical fallacy:
We need something different Ukip are different Therefore we need ukip
And if it was solely because UKIP were 'different' they would not be getting the support they are......
What the hell is pseudo-democratic about a regime that mows down innocent protesters in their thousands? No wonder you think the British Empire is so great - you seem highly unbothered by the well-being of the locals.
Mr. K, damnit, I've accidentally revealed Castle Morris Dancer is in fact a floating fortress in the middle of the Atlantic!
On a serious note, I've been very tired since the afternoon. I think that's why I wrote that.
Mr. F, if you are that confident of Clacton, I agree. Whether UKIP will or not remains to be seen. Even if it's near certain, Farage might prefer to try and guarantee one victory than aim for two and run the risk of a disappointment.
Very big advantage if he could gain both, though. Not in numbers (although that'd be good for him), but, more importantly, in the multiple party triumph. Beating both the major party of government and the lead opposition party would be a cracking result for the purples.
It is Douglas Carsewell who has currently left his former constituents without any form of Westminster representation in a vote on this issue now Parliament has been recalled. And its also Douglas Carsewell who has chosen to self indulgently put his constituents through a costly by-election as a UKIP political stunt just months before a GE.
Douglas Carswel's little toe makes more of an MP than Louise "revolving door" Mensch ever did...
And it's Douglas Carswell who is so popular with said constituents that he is 1/50 with some bookmakers to win the seat for ukip, and is holding a public meeting tonight with 1000 attendees
It is Douglas Carsewell who has currently left his former constituents without any form of Westminster representation in a vote on this issue now Parliament has been recalled. And its also Douglas Carsewell who has chosen to self indulgently put his constituents through a costly by-election as a UKIP political stunt just months before a GE.
Douglas Carswel's little toe makes more of an MP than Louise "revolving door" Mensch ever did...
It's so painfully clear that you would be saluting someone from the hill-tops if someone crossed the floor to the Tories and did this. You aren't governed by any clear philosophy of principle: you are just one of those sycophantic Tories that will spin an anti-UKIP line with whatever argument you find lying around. No doubt if Carswell had not resigned his seat, you would be condemning him for cowardice and misrepresenting his constituents. So transparent.
Welshowl Indeed, and while the SNP has got a poll bounce in Scotland despite losing the independence referendum, Wales is moving into line with England with UKIP now not only ahead of the LDs but also overtaking Plaid, the Welsh nationalists.
The seat changes are that Labour would take Cardiff North from the Tories and Cardiff Central from the LDs while the Tories would gain Brecon and Radnor from the LDs
Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) 24/09/2014 19:44 Around 1,000 people have turned out for Ukip mtg in Clacton w/ @DouglasCarswell@Nigel_Farage --> #Ukipconf14 pic.twitter.com/4GdYbd29cj
Clacton is in the bag. We would throw the kitchen sink at H & M.
If you'd like to meet, I plan to return on Saturday 4 th Ocober.
Saturdays are too busy for me I'm afraid Sean. Thanks though
I am going to go down there in the week leading up to the vote... Tied to the t20 cricket at the mo!
Thank God Miliband stopping the strengthening of ISIS last year.
Unfortunately he did the exact opposite. His schoolboy attempt at playing politics did serious damage.
It's one of those alternative history things where we'll have to agree to differ - personally, trying to learn from Iraq, I think he did both Syria and Britain a considerable service by preventing intervention, and he should have done it for Libya too. We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another. It's possible that you're right and it would have led to a better outcome - if we're honest we'll never know for sure.
Reluctantly, I agree that ISIS is a nastiness class apart and intervention against them does make sense.
Utterly disagree. And if you have learnt any lesson from Iraq, then it appears to be the wrong lesson.
"We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another."
So if Miliband backs bombing, then you will say he's wrong? And do you think the use of chemical weapons should be punished, especially after the west's craven capitulation over Halabja?
Still pushing the lie that Assad used chemical weapons I see.
2/3) I agree the situation has changed -thankfully Syria is on its way to being fully re-controlled by an authoritarian but comparatively enlightened pseudo-democratic Baathist dictatorship.
I think that says all that needs to be said about your world view.
"I feel enlightened. Let's use chemical weapons on my citizens!"
Edit: and weren't you the guy dissing Human Rights Watch when they reported earlier in the year that Assad's regime was using chlorine as a chemical weapon?
Thank God Miliband stopping the strengthening of ISIS last year.
Unfortunately he did the exact opposite. His schoolboy attempt at playing politics did serious damage.
It's one of those alternative history things where we'll have to agree to differ - personally, trying to learn from Iraq, I think he did both Syria and Britain a considerable service by preventing intervention, and he should have done it for Libya too. We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another. It's possible that you're right and it would have led to a better outcome - if we're honest we'll never know for sure.
Reluctantly, I agree that ISIS is a nastiness class apart and intervention against them does make sense.
Utterly disagree. And if you have learnt any lesson from Iraq, then it appears to be the wrong lesson.
"We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another."
So if Miliband backs bombing, then you will say he's wrong? And do you think the use of chemical weapons should be punished, especially after the west's craven capitulation over Halabja?
Still pushing the lie that Assad used chemical weapons I see.
Mr. P, ironic. SNP attacks London politicians for 'breaking promises' and responds by, er, breaking its promise that the referendum would be a once in a generation opportunity.
Thank God Miliband stopping the strengthening of ISIS last year.
Unfortunately he did the exact opposite. His schoolboy attempt at playing politics did serious damage.
It's one of those alternative history things where we'll have to agree to differ - personally, trying to learn from Iraq, I think he did both Syria and Britain a considerable service by preventing intervention, and he should have done it for Libya too. We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another. It's possible that you're right and it would have led to a better outcome - if we're honest we'll never know for sure.
Reluctantly, I agree that ISIS is a nastiness class apart and intervention against them does make sense.
Serious question -how to you account for the fact that the US' Middle East allies in these bombings are also the backers of ISIS?
@iankatz1000: I won't rule out possibility of another Scottish indep referendum inside five years, @NicolaSturgeon tells #newsnight tonight. 22.30
Here we go. So much for those who claimed the issue was dead for a generation,,,,,,,,,
I stand by my comments last week that we will see a quiet and unheralded movement of certain people and assets from Scotland. Nothing dramatic but there will be those who will want to derisk the future.
Mr. P, ironic. SNP attacks London politicians for 'breaking promises' and responds by, er, breaking its promise that the referendum would be a once in a generation opportunity.
Hmm.
No, no, no.
According to the Natters on Twitter, Eck said once in a 'political' generation, and Nicola is a new generation (despite the fact she has been at the heart of the project for years)...
The seat changes are that Labour would take Cardiff North from the Tories and Cardiff Central from the LDs while the Tories would gain Brecon and Radnor from the LDs
The Welsh seat that interests me is Aberavon. I wonder how much affection there will be for Kinnock junior. He'll win of course, but....
2/3) I agree the situation has changed -thankfully Syria is on its way to being fully re-controlled by an authoritarian but comparatively enlightened pseudo-democratic Baathist dictatorship.
I think that says all that needs to be said about your world view.
"I feel enlightened. Let's use chemical weapons on my citizens!"
Edit: and weren't you the guy dissing Human Rights Watch when they reported earlier in the year that Assad's regime was using chlorine as a chemical weapon?
I'll feel really enlightened if you provide me with any evidence that such weapons were used by Assad, not the Saudi-backed beheaders who we're now being asked to bomb.
SeanF Depends if Fillon makes good on his promise to run as an independent if he does not get the UMP nomination, allowing Hollande to come through the middle. A Hollande v Le Pen contest could go either way.
Don't rule out Valls challenging Hollande for the Socialist nomination either if Hollande really does look unelectable
Thank God Miliband stopping the strengthening of ISIS last year.
Unfortunately he did the exact opposite. His schoolboy attempt at playing politics did serious damage.
It's one of those alternative history things where we'll have to agree to differ - personally, trying to learn from Iraq, I think he did both Syria and Britain a considerable service by preventing intervention, and he should have done it for Libya too. We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another. It's possible that you're right and it would have led to a better outcome - if we're honest we'll never know for sure.
Reluctantly, I agree that ISIS is a nastiness class apart and intervention against them does make sense.
Utterly disagree. And if you have learnt any lesson from Iraq, then it appears to be the wrong lesson.
"We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another."
So if Miliband backs bombing, then you will say he's wrong? And do you think the use of chemical weapons should be punished, especially after the west's craven capitulation over Halabja?
Still pushing the lie that Assad used chemical weapons I see.
@iankatz1000: I won't rule out possibility of another Scottish indep referendum inside five years, @NicolaSturgeon tells #newsnight tonight. 22.30
Here we go. So much for those who claimed the issue was dead for a generation,,,,,,,,,
Indeed. At least the No side had the intent and desire that it would be dead for a generation. It was always going to be the case that Yes would want another one as soon as reasonably practicable, and that defining things by 'political generation' or just finding some new casus to justify redoing the whole affair (UK to vote to leave the EU or something), was always on the cards. On that issue at the least, they were flat out liars, and flat out lies (not misinterpretations, or lies by omission) are actually quite the rare thing, because they are usually too risky.
The seat changes are that Labour would take Cardiff North from the Tories and Cardiff Central from the LDs while the Tories would gain Brecon and Radnor from the LDs
The Welsh seat that interests me is Aberavon. I wonder how much affection there will be for Kinnock junior. He'll win of course, but....
Mr. P, ironic. SNP attacks London politicians for 'breaking promises' and responds by, er, breaking its promise that the referendum would be a once in a generation opportunity.
2/3) I agree the situation has changed -thankfully Syria is on its way to being fully re-controlled by an authoritarian but comparatively enlightened pseudo-democratic Baathist dictatorship.
I think that says all that needs to be said about your world view.
"I feel enlightened. Let's use chemical weapons on my citizens!"
Edit: and weren't you the guy dissing Human Rights Watch when they reported earlier in the year that Assad's regime was using chlorine as a chemical weapon?
I'll feel really enlightened if you provide me with any evidence that such weapons were used by Assad, not the Saudi-backed beheaders who we're now being asked to bomb.
But for the moment, it's worth remembering how you see Assad:
"thankfully Syria is on its way to being fully re-controlled by an authoritarian but comparatively enlightened pseudo-democratic Baathist dictatorship"
Thank God Miliband stopping the strengthening of ISIS last year.
Unfortunately he did the exact opposite. His schoolboy attempt at playing politics did serious damage.
It's one of those alternative history things where we'll have to agree to differ - personally, trying to learn from Iraq, I think he did both Syria and Britain a considerable service by preventing intervention, and he should have done it for Libya too. We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another. It's possible that you're right and it would have led to a better outcome - if we're honest we'll never know for sure.
Reluctantly, I agree that ISIS is a nastiness class apart and intervention against them does make sense.
Serious question -how to you account for the fact that the US' Middle East allies in these bombings are also the backers of ISIS?
The idea that Salmond genuinely thought he was going to win until he lost has given me an unreasonable amount of amusement and satisfaction. Private polling has its uses.
Mr. P, ironic. SNP attacks London politicians for 'breaking promises' and responds by, er, breaking its promise that the referendum would be a once in a generation opportunity.
Hmm.
Actually Salmond was rather circumspect because his so called 'pledge' was caveated with this line
"In my opinion, and it is just my opinion, this is a once in a generation opportunity for Scotland."
Its not even in 'Cast iron Guarantee' type pledge territory let alone Tuition Fees or Euro Constitution referendum manifesto pledge territory
And it certainly wasn't a signed public declaration in the newspaper type commitment..........
ScottP There will only be another independence referendum within 5 years if the UK votes to exit the EU in a 2017 referendum. Otherwise, it will wait a generation at least
I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies that 'threatened' to move in the event of a Yes, modify their stance to 'leave if there is another vote'
The idea that Salmond genuinely thought he was going to win until he lost has given me an unreasonable amount of amusement and satisfaction. Private polling has its uses.
So, SNP cunning plans for justifying trying to bore Scotland into submission: 1) most MSPs 2) most MPs 3) highest share of the vote in either election 4) DevoMax not including everything, such as the right to move the Moon closer to Scotland or the right to see the Aurora Borealis every night
There's a risk, though, that they'll piss off people who think they're trying it on, and that people just want to get on with things after the decision has been made, instead of being nagged.
@iankatz1000: I won't rule out possibility of another Scottish indep referendum inside five years, @NicolaSturgeon tells #newsnight tonight. 22.30
Here we go. So much for those who claimed the issue was dead for a generation,,,,,,,,,
It really is the Neverendum.
It will be political paralysis for the forseable future, but at least time to figure out an answer as to what currency to use!
Once the hysteria dies down and DevoMax is delivered, I think this will recede.
It's still very raw for Nats, but there will come a point when things settle down and everyone wants to get along with the system in place for a while.
Thank God Miliband stopping the strengthening of ISIS last year.
Unfortunately he did the exact opposite. His schoolboy attempt at playing politics did serious damage.
It's one of those alternative history things where we'll have to agree to differ - personally, trying to learn from Iraq, I think he did both Syria and Britain a considerable service by preventing intervention, and he should have done it for Libya too. We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another. It's possible that you're right and it would have led to a better outcome - if we're honest we'll never know for sure.
Reluctantly, I agree that ISIS is a nastiness class apart and intervention against them does make sense.
Serious question -how to you account for the fact that the US' Middle East allies in these bombings are also the backers of ISIS?
Is 'leverage their influence' another way of saying 'paid a ransom' ?
You bet! Peanuts for India to pay a Ransom to any hostage taker:, after all we, the British are paying for it out of the aid money the British government gives India. Oh, and they also managed to send a satellite around Mars today. Isn't Cammo lovely?
@iankatz1000: I won't rule out possibility of another Scottish indep referendum inside five years, @NicolaSturgeon tells #newsnight tonight. 22.30
Here we go. So much for those who claimed the issue was dead for a generation,,,,,,,,,
If she's serious, she's deluded, in my opinion, if she thinks the UK Parliment will allow that to happen.. Utterly naive at best.
Sturgeon and Swinney especially have been pushing the idea of a Home a Rule and to push the fight to more and more powers. Part of me feels that this chat of 'not ruling out another Referndum' in the next however many years is designed to appease their new, largely bandwagon orientated support. These '45%' goofs especially.
Swerving sideways, my best mate, who is a Nationalist, is concerned with the surge in support from the '45' as he firmly believes it will repel the ordinary, middle of the road voter with their hard left, victim playing, anti-establishment and anti-everything routine. I believe to him a large degree.
Mr. P, ironic. SNP attacks London politicians for 'breaking promises' and responds by, er, breaking its promise that the referendum would be a once in a generation opportunity.
Hmm.
It was notable that the attacks on broken promises were being pulled out before there was even a chance to implement any of the damn promises, as though the complaints of some backbenchers or Cameron playing hardball with Ed M about EV4EL was irrefutable evidence the vow was nothing but lies. It was pretty risible, but set the scene for immediately deciding it's time to start up the neverendum train all over again - no matter what is offered, the narrative has already been set that the vow will not be fulfilled, even if Westminster claims (and even does) to have done everything they said they would. They are not to be trusted, and they broke their word first, so it is ok to start up again.
I did not like the SNP positions during the referendum, obviously, because their principle cause is not one I support, but I felt like they deserved a heck of a lot of respect for their talent, ambition and effectiveness. But since the outcome, they have made me reconsider some of my criticism of some of the things coming from their, well, critics.
So, SNP cunning plans for justifying trying to bore Scotland into submission: 1) most MSPs 2) most MPs 3) highest share of the vote in either election 4) DevoMax not including everything, such as the right to move the Moon closer to Scotland or the right to see the Aurora Borealis every night
There's a risk, though, that they'll piss off people who think they're trying it on, and that people just want to get on with things after the decision has been made, instead of being nagged.
If at first you don't secede, try, try, try again.
I do not believe in an English Parliament. I do not believe in devolution to cities (or even city states.) And I certainly do not believe that the current system can continue without reform.
That reform has to mean that English MPs have the final say over measures that only affect English matters.
I think the mistake that people are making is to assume that we are bound by the current structure of the Crown-in-Parliament, which is - IMV - at the root of many of the problems that we have in the UK government system.
If you take the executive out of the legislature, and make the PM directly elected (and getting to appoint his executive team) then there would be absolutely no problem in electing English, Welsh, Scottish and Northern Ireland parliaments.
The Executive would take executive decisions. And if they wanted to propose legislation then they would need to convince a majority of members of the relevant national parliament.
Why on earth do national assemblies need to be predicated on a presidential style executive? I do not think that has any direct relationship to the issue at all. A basic use of subsidiarity is all that is required to justify the assemblies.
They're not predicated on it.
But it solve the issue of having a UK health minster, without a majority in England, using executive authority to make decision affecting England.
Fundamentally, though, I don't think parliament is doing a good job and needs fixing. Executive dominance is the problem; elective dictatorship TM has come to be the norm.
Thank God Miliband stopping the strengthening of ISIS last year.
Unfortunately he did the exact opposite. His schoolboy attempt at playing politics did serious damage.
It's one of those alternative history things where we'll have to agree to differ - personally, trying to learn from Iraq, I think he did both Syria and Britain a considerable service by preventing intervention, and he should have done it for Libya too. We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another. It's possible that you're right and it would have led to a better outcome - if we're honest we'll never know for sure.
Reluctantly, I agree that ISIS is a nastiness class apart and intervention against them does make sense.
Serious question -how to you account for the fact that the US' Middle East allies in these bombings are also the backers of ISIS?
Is 'leverage their influence' another way of saying 'paid a ransom' ?
You bet! Peanuts for India to pay a Ransom to any hostage taker:, after all we, the British are paying for it out of the aid money the British government gives India. Oh and they also managed to send a satelite around Mars today. Isn't Cammo lovely?
£300 million divided by 1 billion Indians works out at 30p per Indian per year.
@iankatz1000: I won't rule out possibility of another Scottish indep referendum inside five years, @NicolaSturgeon tells #newsnight tonight. 22.30
Here we go. So much for those who claimed the issue was dead for a generation,,,,,,,,,
It really is the Neverendum.
It will be political paralysis for the forseable future, but at least time to figure out an answer as to what currency to use!
If Westminster is so stupid as to not deliver on its commitments in reasonable time the SNP may not need any answers.......
Maybe, but it's only been a week, and they aren't even waiting for a lack of delivery - they are setting up a narrative that it won't be, or that it is not enough (which to them it isn't but they do not speak for all Scotland).
"Among undecided voters, all parties have an opportunity in the coming seven months before the 2015 general election, but the extent of that opportunity differs across the parties."
Con 27% vote potential Lab 27% vote potential UKIP 21% vote potential Green 21% vote potential LD 19% vote potential
The idea that Salmond genuinely thought he was going to win until he lost has given me an unreasonable amount of amusement and satisfaction. Private polling has its uses.
If only this story had been published 24 hours earlier, it would have given us great amusement last night.
@iankatz1000: I won't rule out possibility of another Scottish indep referendum inside five years, @NicolaSturgeon tells #newsnight tonight. 22.30
Here we go. So much for those who claimed the issue was dead for a generation,,,,,,,,,
It really is the Neverendum.
It will be political paralysis for the forseable future, but at least time to figure out an answer as to what currency to use!
Once the hysteria dies down and DevoMax is delivered, I think this will recede.
It's still very raw for Nats, but there will come a point when things settle down and everyone wants to get along with the system in place for a while.
10-20 years down the line though? Harder to say.
This is pretty close I'd say to the reality. More the 20 year mark for me before/if it truly heats up again.
So people approve of a tax on others. Hardly surprising, but as has been pointed out on here actually collecting it would not be straightforward in the least.
PB Tories can't even get the majority views of Tory voters right. Has DH told us mansion tax is a disaster 4 Ed yet?
I do not believe in an English Parliament. I do not believe in devolution to cities (or even city states.) And I certainly do not believe that the current system can continue without reform.
That reform has to mean that English MPs have the final say over measures that only affect English matters.
I think the mistake that people are making is to assume that we are bound by the current structure of the Crown-in-Parliament, which is - IMV - at the root of many of the problems that we have in the UK government system.
If you take the executive out of the legislature, and make the PM directly elected (and getting to appoint his executive team) then there would be absolutely no problem in electing English, Welsh, Scottish and Northern Ireland parliaments.
The Executive would take executive decisions. And if they wanted to propose legislation then they would need to convince a majority of members of the relevant national parliament.
Why on earth do national assemblies need to be predicated on a presidential style executive? I do not think that has any direct relationship to the issue at all. A basic use of subsidiarity is all that is required to justify the assemblies.
They're not predicated on it.
But it solve the issue of having a UK health minster, without a majority in England, using executive authority to make decision affecting England.
Fundamentally, though, I don't think parliament is doing a good job and needs fixing. Executive dominance is the problem; elective dictatorship TM has come to be the norm.
Ah so your point was to suggest possibly the greatest centralisation of power and diminution of democracy in recent British political history. Given the purpose of this is providing equal decentralisation across the four home nations that would rather be counterproductive?
Anyway, I'm glad you actually realised that and recognised that the actual problem is the executive because I was just about to point that out!.
So people approve of a tax on others. Hardly surprising, but as has been pointed out on here actually collecting it would not be straightforward in the least.
PB Tories can't even get the majority views of Tory voters right. Has DH told us mansion tax is a disaster 4 Ed yet?
He's only managed to get, like, 5 posts done on disasters for Ed in the past couple of days, he hasn't had time to cover all of them yet - why are they not enough people out there who can see the truth that everything Ed M does or says is a disaster, who can take some of the blogging duties off his hands? He's only one man after all, he cannot cover every disaster.
Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver 10m About 90% of audience raised hand when Farage asked who wasn't a member of UKIP. Bringing people back into politics.
@iankatz1000: I won't rule out possibility of another Scottish indep referendum inside five years, @NicolaSturgeon tells #newsnight tonight. 22.30
Here we go. So much for those who claimed the issue was dead for a generation,,,,,,,,,
If she's serious, she's deluded, in my opinion, if she thinks the UK Parliment will allow that to happen.. Utterly naive at best.
Sturgeon and Swinney especially have been pushing the idea of a Home a Rule and to push the fight to more and more powers. Part of me feels that this chat of 'not ruling out another Referndum' in the next however many years is designed to appease their new, largely bandwagon orientated support. These '45%' goofs especially.
Swerving sideways, my best mate, who is a Nationalist, is concerned with the surge in support from the '45' as he firmly believes it will repel the ordinary, middle of the road voter with their hard left, victim playing, anti-establishment and anti-everything routine. I believe to him a large degree.
What's Westminster going to do if the Scottish parliament votes for another referendum (polls indicating the Scottish people want one) because Westminster has not lived up to its commitments? And then if the SNP got a whopping great majority for independence off the back of it? What's Westminster going to do about it then?
Anyway until Westminster has delivered on Devomax it would be poor politics to take the threat of one off the table!
@michaelhogan: Jeremy Paxman to host Channel 4's election coverage. Gok Wan and Alan Carr providing expert analysis. A big fat gypsy on the Swingometer
Thank God Miliband stopping the strengthening of ISIS last year.
Unfortunately he did the exact opposite. His schoolboy attempt at playing politics did serious damage.
It's one of those alternative history things where we'll have to agree to differ - personally, trying to learn from Iraq, I think he did both Syria and Britain a considerable service by preventing intervention, and he should have done it for Libya too. We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another. It's possible that you're right and it would have led to a better outcome - if we're honest we'll never know for sure.
Reluctantly, I agree that ISIS is a nastiness class apart and intervention against them does make sense.
Serious question -how to you account for the fact that the US' Middle East allies in these bombings are also the backers of ISIS?
Is 'leverage their influence' another way of saying 'paid a ransom' ?
You bet! Peanuts for India to pay a Ransom to any hostage taker:, after all we, the British are paying for it out of the aid money the British government gives India. Oh and they also managed to send a satelite around Mars today. Isn't Cammo lovely?
£300 million divided by 1 billion Indians works out at 30p per Indian per year.
BTW Net aid to the EU is £10 billion per annum!
That is not the point, @Sunil, and you know it. India is doing very nicely on it's own thank you very much and it doesn't need British aid to give it a leg up.
2/3) I agree the situation has changed -thankfully Syria is on its way to being fully re-controlled by an authoritarian but comparatively enlightened pseudo-democratic Baathist dictatorship.
I think that says all that needs to be said about your world view.
"I feel enlightened. Let's use chemical weapons on my citizens!"
Edit: and weren't you the guy dissing Human Rights Watch when they reported earlier in the year that Assad's regime was using chlorine as a chemical weapon?
I'll feel really enlightened if you provide me with any evidence that such weapons were used by Assad, not the Saudi-backed beheaders who we're now being asked to bomb.
But for the moment, it's worth remembering how you see Assad:
"thankfully Syria is on its way to being fully re-controlled by an authoritarian but comparatively enlightened pseudo-democratic Baathist dictatorship"
I'm puzzled as to what is it that seems to have upset you about that statement? -Authoritarian -Yes -Comparatively enlightened -compared to a medieval monarchies like KSA or Bahrain where gays are stoned to death and women are not allowed to drive, in Syria there is freedom of religion, freedom to wear what you like -do you somehow deny this? -Pseudo-democratic -at the very least. The Syrians allowed any international observers who wanted to go (we didn't) to their last election. However, the qualifications (40 years in Syria) did hugely limit the slate, and the war torn nature of the land made Assad a shoe in. Hence pseudo-democratic. -Baathist -disagree? -Dictatorship -disagree?
So people approve of a tax on others. Hardly surprising, but as has been pointed out on here actually collecting it would not be straightforward in the least.
PB Tories can't even get the majority views of Tory voters right. Has DH told us mansion tax is a disaster 4 Ed yet?
How so? The survey is clear Tory voters apparently approve, but 99% of them won't be paying it, so it's easy isn't it? I don't smoke so cigarettes can go up to £30 a packet to fund the NHS as far as I'm concerned. Still doesn't mean there wouldn't be problems implementing it, such as smuggling.
Well, socialism is cooler when you're at Uni, isn't it?
I've never found socialism cool.
Neither have I, but combine some stylish dark reds, Che Guevara's face and some totalitarian regimes that never worked, and millions of angry students disagree.
Apologies to the nice/proper socialists out there.
PS and appropos of nothing, I see from Wikipedia that Engels at one point at least had an even more stupendous beard than Marx and his much more famous one. I don't know why I find that interesting, but I do. I may not be cut out for political philosophy in a serious manner.
Thank God Miliband stopping the strengthening of ISIS last year.
Unfortunately he did the exact opposite. His schoolboy attempt at playing politics did serious damage.
It's one of those alternative history things where we'll have to agree to differ - personally, trying to learn from Iraq, I think he did both Syria and Britain a considerable service by preventing intervention, and he should have done it for Libya too. We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another. It's possible that you're right and it would have led to a better outcome - if we're honest we'll never know for sure.
Reluctantly, I agree that ISIS is a nastiness class apart and intervention against them does make sense.
Utterly disagree. And if you have learnt any lesson from Iraq, then it appears to be the wrong lesson.
"We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another."
So if Miliband backs bombing, then you will say he's wrong? And do you think the use of chemical weapons should be punished, especially after the west's craven capitulation over Halabja?
Still pushing the lie that Assad used chemical weapons I see.
Still wearing that tinfoil hat? It must be wearing a little thin now, so here's some instructions on how to make a new one. I suggest you use blunt scissors, as I wouldn't want you hurting yourself:
@iankatz1000: I won't rule out possibility of another Scottish indep referendum inside five years, @NicolaSturgeon tells #newsnight tonight. 22.30
Here we go. So much for those who claimed the issue was dead for a generation,,,,,,,,,
If she's serious, she's deluded, in my opinion, if she thinks the UK Parliment will allow that to happen.. Utterly naive at best.
Sturgeon and Swinney especially have been pushing the idea of a Home a Rule and to push the fight to more and more powers. Part of me feels that this chat of 'not ruling out another Referndum' in the next however many years is designed to appease their new, largely bandwagon orientated support. These '45%' goofs especially.
Swerving sideways, my best mate, who is a Nationalist, is concerned with the surge in support from the '45' as he firmly believes it will repel the ordinary, middle of the road voter with their hard left, victim playing, anti-establishment and anti-everything routine. I believe to him a large degree.
What's Westminster going to do if the Scottish parliament votes for another referendum (polls indicating the Scottish people want one) because Westminster has not lived up to its commitments? And then if the SNP got a whopping great majority for independence off the back of it? What Westminster going to do about it then?
I can't see Westminster not delivering, not even Ed's that dumb. Added to that, SNP 'leaders' seemingly favouring the home rule battle for now.
Null and void issue for me currently.
I won't be really rude though and answer the question. If they do 'welch' on the commitments however; then within the next 5-10 years is way more likely.
Thank God Miliband stopping the strengthening of ISIS last year.
Unfortunately he did the exact opposite. His schoolboy attempt at playing politics did serious damage.
It's one of those alternative history things where we'll have to agree to differ - personally, trying to learn from Iraq, I think he did both Syria and Britain a considerable service by preventing intervention, and he should have done it for Libya too. We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another. It's possible that you're right and it would have led to a better outcome - if we're honest we'll never know for sure.
Reluctantly, I agree that ISIS is a nastiness class apart and intervention against them does make sense.
Utterly disagree. And if you have learnt any lesson from Iraq, then it appears to be the wrong lesson.
"We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another."
So if Miliband backs bombing, then you will say he's wrong? And do you think the use of chemical weapons should be punished, especially after the west's craven capitulation over Halabja?
I (reluctantly) support bombing in this case, as you'll see if you re-read my last paragraph. On chemical weapons, I think we have to look at each case separately - it's a nasty form of killing, but not the only nasty form. "Punishment" (i.e. killing people who support the side we don't like) needs to have a reasonable chance of leading to a better outcome. IMO you are too sure you're right on this, as you are on everything else: for the construction of a train line, that doesn't matter too much, for killing people, rather more.
The big negative on this isam and Nick is that the TV Parliament channel was going to give non- top coverage of the opening day of conference. I still hope it will. However I've a feeling that it will now concentrate on the vote in the house, which after all is it's primary buisiness.
I don't think enough people watch the Parliament channel to worry about it, though Iit's disappointing for those who aren't attending and would like to follow it all.
By the way, if there are any PBers attending, do come over to the stand I'm running there and say hello.
@michaelhogan: Jeremy Paxman to host Channel 4's election coverage. Gok Wan and Alan Carr providing expert analysis. A big fat gypsy on the Swingometer
It will be mindbleach time when we get to compare whether Ed, Dave, Nick and Nigel look good naked...
Thank God Miliband stopping the strengthening of ISIS last year.
Unfortunately he did the exact opposite. His schoolboy attempt at playing politics did serious damage.
It's one of those alternative history things where we'll have to agree to differ - personally, trying to learn from Iraq, I think he did both Syria and Britain a considerable service by preventing intervention, and he should have done it for Libya too. We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another. It's possible that you're right and it would have led to a better outcome - if we're honest we'll never know for sure.
Reluctantly, I agree that ISIS is a nastiness class apart and intervention against them does make sense.
Serious question -how to you account for the fact that the US' Middle East allies in these bombings are also the backers of ISIS?
Is 'leverage their influence' another way of saying 'paid a ransom' ?
You bet! Peanuts for India to pay a Ransom to any hostage taker:, after all we, the British are paying for it out of the aid money the British government gives India. Oh and they also managed to send a satelite around Mars today. Isn't Cammo lovely?
£300 million divided by 1 billion Indians works out at 30p per Indian per year.
BTW Net aid to the EU is £10 billion per annum!
That is not the point, @Sunil, and you know it. India is doing very nicely on it's own thank you very much and it doesn't need British aid to give it a leg up.
Exactly, Mike, that is my point!
Think! 30p per Indian per year is peanuts. I doubt any Indian could purchase much with 30p spread across a whole year!
For context, India's inflation rate was around 7.2% in July.
Sarkozy and his wife have never had much in common, politically.
If Sarkozy runs in 2017, he'll beat Marine Le Pen 2:1. Hollande won't reach the run-off.
If Miliband does win in 2015, I wonder if fast forwarding 5 years we may be in a similar political situation to the one the French are in now:
The left deeply unpopular due to being forced into difficult policy decisions, and two parties to the right/right-of-centre benefitting significantly.
Only difference being it wouldn't be Cameron making a comeback IMHO. Boris and Farage?
If Labour win in 2015, then by the middle of the next Parliament, I think we'd see each of Con/Lab/UKIP polling 25-30%.
"Farage ... has a clear strategy for building a longer insurgency, a core plank of which is to establish Ukip as Labour’s main opposition in the north. Nor is this political fantasy: at the European elections in May, across 51 authorities in the north-west and north-east, Ukip finished ahead of Labour in 18 and as its main rival in 30. "
Well, socialism is cooler when you're at Uni, isn't it?
I've never found socialism cool.
Neither have I, but combine some stylish dark reds, Che Guevara's face and some totalitarian regimes that never worked, and millions of angry students disagree.
Apologies to the nice/proper socialists out there.
PS and appropos of nothing, I see from Wikipedia that Engels at one point at least had an even more stupendous beard than Marx and his much more famous one. I don't know why I find that interesting, but I do. I may not be cut out for political philosophy in a serious manner.
The one thing that got me was the number of students who wore Lenin/Soviet symbols.
So, SNP cunning plans for justifying trying to bore Scotland into submission: 1) most MSPs 2) most MPs 3) highest share of the vote in either election 4) DevoMax not including everything, such as the right to move the Moon closer to Scotland or the right to see the Aurora Borealis every night
There's a risk, though, that they'll piss off people who think they're trying it on, and that people just want to get on with things after the decision has been made, instead of being nagged.
If at first you don't secede, try, try, try again.
Very good!
@DavidL "The idea that Salmond genuinely thought he was going to win until he lost has given me an unreasonable amount of amusement and satisfaction. Private polling has its uses."
Won't happen because Labour are now in a Tory situation.
Competing on many fronts, but finishing second in too many against a range of different adversaries - be it the SNP in Scotland, UKIP down the East Coast, Tories in East Mids etc.
Their vote is likely to be considerably less efficient this time round.
What's the odds on no party reaching 300 seats in May?
Thank God Miliband stopping the strengthening of ISIS last year.
Unfortunately he did the exact opposite. His schoolboy attempt at playing politics did serious damage.
It's one of those alternative history things where we'll have to agree to differ - personally, trying to learn from Iraq, I think he did both Syria and Britain a considerable service by preventing intervention, and he should have done it for Libya too. We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another. It's possible that you're right and it would have led to a better outcome - if we're honest we'll never know for sure.
Reluctantly, I agree that ISIS is a nastiness class apart and intervention against them does make sense.
Utterly disagree. And if you have learnt any lesson from Iraq, then it appears to be the wrong lesson.
"We have no business killing people to favour one dubious group over another."
So if Miliband backs bombing, then you will say he's wrong? And do you think the use of chemical weapons should be punished, especially after the west's craven capitulation over Halabja?
I (reluctantly) support bombing in this case, as you'll see if you re-read my last paragraph. On chemical weapons, I think we have to look at each case separately - it's a nasty form of killing, but not the only nasty form. "Punishment" (i.e. killing people who support the side we don't like) needs to have a reasonable chance of leading to a better outcome. IMO you are too sure you're right on this, as you are on everything else: for the construction of a train line, that doesn't matter too much, for killing people, rather more.
The big negative on this isam and Nick is that the TV Parliament channel was going to give non- top coverage of the opening day of conference. I still hope it will. However I've a feeling that it will now concentrate on the vote in the house, which after all is it's primary buisiness.
I don't think enough people watch the Parliament channel to worry about it, though Iit's disappointing for those who aren't attending and would like to follow it all.
By the way, if there are any PBers attending, do come over to the stand I'm running there and say hello.
Oh Nick if you thought I was trolling you when I asked if you were going back to parliament rather than the ukip conference, I apologise. Honest mistake, I forgot
Well, socialism is cooler when you're at Uni, isn't it?
I've never found socialism cool.
Neither have I, but combine some stylish dark reds, Che Guevara's face and some totalitarian regimes that never worked, and millions of angry students disagree.
Apologies to the nice/proper socialists out there.
PS and appropos of nothing, I see from Wikipedia that Engels at one point at least had an even more stupendous beard than Marx and his much more famous one. I don't know why I find that interesting, but I do. I may not be cut out for political philosophy in a serious manner.
The one thing that got me was the number of students who wore Lenin/Soviet symbols.
I never really got why people thought Trotsky was a really positive model. Sure, he wasn't Stalin, but that's not saying a great deal. With Lenin, I could never shake the impression that he was the type of guy who would wash his hands after shaking it with a member of the lower orders, though that was just a gut reaction on my part which may have no basis in fact in how he felt about such people in reality, not merely theory, so if I am being unfair to his memory I apologies on that limited score. Not a pleasant bunch of folks though, my limited investigations into the subject determined.
Comments
Now I've pointed out before Wales is not Scotland writ small but the 3% figure really is amazingly low, especially given the Indyref only last week.
If you'd like to meet, I plan to return on Saturday 4 th Ocober.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2765521/Comeback-ex-French-president-Nicolas-Sarkozy-says-gay-marriage-humiliates-families-promptly-slapped-wife.html
What the hell is pseudo-democratic about a regime that mows down innocent protesters in their thousands? No wonder you think the British Empire is so great - you seem highly unbothered by the well-being of the locals.
On a serious note, I've been very tired since the afternoon. I think that's why I wrote that.
Mr. F, if you are that confident of Clacton, I agree. Whether UKIP will or not remains to be seen. Even if it's near certain, Farage might prefer to try and guarantee one victory than aim for two and run the risk of a disappointment.
Very big advantage if he could gain both, though. Not in numbers (although that'd be good for him), but, more importantly, in the multiple party triumph. Beating both the major party of government and the lead opposition party would be a cracking result for the purples.
This is going to be a very entertaining election.
If Sarkozy runs in 2017, he'll beat Marine Le Pen 2:1. Hollande won't reach the run-off.
He probably did mention them because he likes to talk about the local GP who is from Romania.
But she's only scary if you're scared of the doctor I suppose
Welshowl Indeed, and while the SNP has got a poll bounce in Scotland despite losing the independence referendum, Wales is moving into line with England with UKIP now not only ahead of the LDs but also overtaking Plaid, the Welsh nationalists.
The seat changes are that Labour would take Cardiff North from the Tories and Cardiff Central from the LDs while the Tories would gain Brecon and Radnor from the LDs
I am going to go down there in the week leading up to the vote... Tied to the t20 cricket at the mo!
http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2014/09/09/americas-frankenstein-brigade/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2767841/John-Prescott-dismisses-Labour-high-flier-Chuka-Umunna-Cumbawumba-latest-bizarre-outburst.html
"I feel enlightened. Let's use chemical weapons on my citizens!"
Edit: and weren't you the guy dissing Human Rights Watch when they reported earlier in the year that Assad's regime was using chlorine as a chemical weapon?
Hmm.
The left deeply unpopular due to being forced into difficult policy decisions, and two parties to the right/right-of-centre benefitting significantly.
Only difference being it wouldn't be Cameron making a comeback IMHO. Boris and Farage?
Here's how the Indian interior minister got 46 hostages away from ISIS:
'External affairs minister Sushma Swaraj was in constant touch with her counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE to leverage their influence over the Sunii insurgents to seek the release of Indians being held captive, sources said.'
http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/iraqonthebrink/indian-nurses-reach-mosul-kerala-cm-says-they-are-safe/article1-1236585.aspx
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swcEfKkKLLs
According to the Natters on Twitter, Eck said once in a 'political' generation, and Nicola is a new generation (despite the fact she has been at the heart of the project for years)...
*buffs nails*
The Welsh seat that interests me is Aberavon. I wonder how much affection there will be for Kinnock junior. He'll win of course, but....
Don't rule out Valls challenging Hollande for the Socialist nomination either if Hollande really does look unelectable
Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Libya, have you ever got any foreign policy issue right?
There's a well known conspiracy that might explain your statement, but I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt. For now.
http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/05/13/syria-strong-evidence-government-used-chemicals-weapon
But for the moment, it's worth remembering how you see Assad:
"thankfully Syria is on its way to being fully re-controlled by an authoritarian but comparatively enlightened pseudo-democratic Baathist dictatorship"
It will be political paralysis for the forseable future, but at least time to figure out an answer as to what currency to use!
"In my opinion, and it is just my opinion, this is a once in a generation opportunity for Scotland."
Its not even in 'Cast iron Guarantee' type pledge territory let alone Tuition Fees or Euro Constitution referendum manifesto pledge territory
And it certainly wasn't a signed public declaration in the newspaper type commitment..........
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/14/alex-salmond-no-vote_n_5817786.html
So, SNP cunning plans for justifying trying to bore Scotland into submission:
1) most MSPs
2) most MPs
3) highest share of the vote in either election
4) DevoMax not including everything, such as the right to move the Moon closer to Scotland or the right to see the Aurora Borealis every night
There's a risk, though, that they'll piss off people who think they're trying it on, and that people just want to get on with things after the decision has been made, instead of being nagged.
It's still very raw for Nats, but there will come a point when things settle down and everyone wants to get along with the system in place for a while.
10-20 years down the line though? Harder to say.
Sturgeon and Swinney especially have been pushing the idea of a Home a Rule and to push the fight to more and more powers. Part of me feels that this chat of 'not ruling out another Referndum' in the next however many years is designed to appease their new, largely bandwagon orientated support. These '45%' goofs especially.
Swerving sideways, my best mate, who is a Nationalist, is concerned with the surge in support from the '45' as he firmly believes it will repel the ordinary, middle of the road voter with their hard left, victim playing, anti-establishment and anti-everything routine. I believe to him a large degree.
I did not like the SNP positions during the referendum, obviously, because their principle cause is not one I support, but I felt like they deserved a heck of a lot of respect for their talent, ambition and effectiveness. But since the outcome, they have made me reconsider some of my criticism of some of the things coming from their, well, critics.
But it solve the issue of having a UK health minster, without a majority in England, using executive authority to make decision affecting England.
Fundamentally, though, I don't think parliament is doing a good job and needs fixing. Executive dominance is the problem; elective dictatorship TM has come to be the norm.
BTW Net aid to the EU is £10 billion per annum!
http://tinyurl.com/l3v2mml
"Among undecided voters, all parties have an opportunity in the coming seven months before the 2015 general election, but the extent of that opportunity differs across the parties."
Con 27% vote potential
Lab 27% vote potential
UKIP 21% vote potential
Green 21% vote potential
LD 19% vote potential
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/do-party-conferences-matter-why-the-dye-may-be-cast-for-ed-miliband/
Has DH told us mansion tax is a disaster 4 Ed yet?
Anyway, I'm glad you actually realised that and recognised that the actual problem is the executive because I was just about to point that out!.
Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver 10m
About 90% of audience raised hand when Farage asked who wasn't a member of UKIP. Bringing people back into politics.
Anyway until Westminster has delivered on Devomax it would be poor politics to take the threat of one off the table!
Pochettino = Ed Miliband
-Authoritarian -Yes
-Comparatively enlightened -compared to a medieval monarchies like KSA or Bahrain where gays are stoned to death and women are not allowed to drive, in Syria there is freedom of religion, freedom to wear what you like -do you somehow deny this?
-Pseudo-democratic -at the very least. The Syrians allowed any international observers who wanted to go (we didn't) to their last election. However, the qualifications (40 years in Syria) did hugely limit the slate, and the war torn nature of the land made Assad a shoe in. Hence pseudo-democratic.
-Baathist -disagree?
-Dictatorship -disagree?
A bit odd to be honest.
As for your source, I choose to see the sentence 'Evidence strongly suggests' at the beginning of the article. The report by the OPCW they mention has now been published. No mention of culpability: http://www.opcw.org/news/article/opcw-fact-finding-mission-compelling-confirmation-that-chlorine-gas-used-as-weapon-in-syria/
Meanwhile, Farage moaning apparently that airstrikes vote during UKIP conference
Apologies to the nice/proper socialists out there.
PS and appropos of nothing, I see from Wikipedia that Engels at one point at least had an even more stupendous beard than Marx and his much more famous one. I don't know why I find that interesting, but I do. I may not be cut out for political philosophy in a serious manner.
http://www.ehow.com/how_2049858_make-tinfoil-hat.html
Null and void issue for me currently.
I won't be really rude though and answer the question. If they do 'welch' on the commitments however; then within the next 5-10 years is way more likely.
Has anyone made the SouthamObserver joke yet?
By the way, if there are any PBers attending, do come over to the stand I'm running there and say hello.
Think! 30p per Indian per year is peanuts. I doubt any Indian could purchase much with 30p spread across a whole year!
For context, India's inflation rate was around 7.2% in July.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/24/nigel-farage-ukip-peasants-revolt-westminster-working-class-britons
@DavidL "The idea that Salmond genuinely thought he was going to win until he lost has given me an unreasonable amount of amusement and satisfaction. Private polling has its uses."
Double like!
Competing on many fronts, but finishing second in too many against a range of different adversaries - be it the SNP in Scotland, UKIP down the East Coast, Tories in East Mids etc.
Their vote is likely to be considerably less efficient this time round.
What's the odds on no party reaching 300 seats in May?
I nearly didn't publish this thread, because I didn't want Southam think I was having a go at him.
It just struck me as an interesting phenomena.
The two big betting/polling events in the last two years, and the losers thought they were on course for victory.