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The first post leadership polling not good for Truss – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,006
edited September 2022 in General
imageThe first post leadership polling not good for Truss – politicalbetting.com

I never know what to make of quickie polls like the one published by YouGov in the last half hour. This was carried out after the leadership election result was announced.

Read the full story here

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Comments

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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,097
    Is this the honeymoon bounce then?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,855
    Latest reshuffle rumour among senior Tory MPs is comeback for Robert Jenrick as Attorney General. Solicitor, not a barrister, though.
    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1566827719958069248
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    DOA.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938
    So looks like replacing Boris was a complete waste of time in reviving Tory popularity at least. More voters think Truss will be a worse PM than Boris than a better one.

    Not that Sunak would have done much better, he trailed Starmer by 9% as preferred PM.

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1566826044656607232?s=20&t=wxPW-kLuKnv0s7lQIwcQ2g

    Anyway, let us see if Truss' new Cabinet and policies on cost of living can see her get some sort of bounce at least
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited September 2022
    I wonder what the Queen will make of The Truss. I expect Truss to be very slightly frightened of her, despite having been a republican earlier on.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    edited September 2022
    Only way is up. Truss is not offputting and her consistent rise and lack of particularly noticable scandal shows she is competent.

    It's more of a question of if she buys into the shite about her being ideologically fixated, and it does not work, or if she appoints complete lemmings, and they screw up.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 9,459
    I expect she may have a short term bounce after a week or so if she announces a few popular policies on energy prices. We saw a fair bit of swinging around for Boris and Rishi in the early months of Covid as they first rejected then embraced big bungs to keep the economy going.

    The most telling stat, I think, is the proportion saying they expect her to be "about the same" as Boris Johnson. This indicates a deep seated ennui. It shows there is no great groundswell for Boris to make a triumphant return, and I think it shows how many people see the problem as being the Tory government, not the specific individual leading it.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    HYUFD said:

    So looks like replacing Boris was a complete waste of time in reviving Tory popularity at least. More voters think Truss will be a worse PM than Boris than a better one.

    We know you want Boris back and are hoping for a bad result to justify being loyal to an ex-PM over the party itself, but you could give her a chance at least.
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    The announcement on energy prices can't come soon enough not only for her popularity, but for the number of businesses that are already going to the wall.
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    I wonder what the Queen will make of The Truss. I expect Truss to be very slightly frightened of her, despite having been a republican earlier on.

    The Duke and Duchess of Edinburgh got on very well with the bona fide republican Cherie Blair.
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,883
    Chris said:

    Is this the honeymoon bounce then?

    She's not there yet. She's only just climbed ino the "Just Married" Car.
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,560
    edited September 2022
    She's had generally bad press so this poll was I suppose to be expected.

    With such low expectations it is at least much harder to disappoint.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,518
    Fishing said:

    With such low expectations it is at least much harder to disappoint.

    Liz says hold my beer...
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Patel resigns, says Guido
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    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    IshmaelZ said:

    Patel resigns, says Guido

    That's going to confuse a few people...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,900
    Bit of a polling failure I think with her winning by only 15 points
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    theakestheakes Posts: 841
    Problem is not Truss, Sunak etc, it is the Tory brand. Like all governments round about 12 years they have reached their sell by date. So many occasions, 1908 -16, Liberal led, 1931 - 1945( National and Coalition, 1951 - 1964 (Conservative), 1979 - 1997 (Conservative, really it should have happened in 1992, 1997 - 2010, (Labour), now the general perception is Conservative 2010 - present.
    There is an inevitability about it, it is that time again, "We need a change", and there is no Corbyn to even delay the process.
    It cannot be stopped, whatever the Daily Express may try and say.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,518
    TimS said:

    I expect she may have a short term bounce after a week or so if she announces a few popular policies on energy prices. We saw a fair bit of swinging around for Boris and Rishi in the early months of Covid as they first rejected then embraced big bungs to keep the economy going.

    The most telling stat, I think, is the proportion saying they expect her to be "about the same" as Boris Johnson. This indicates a deep seated ennui. It shows there is no great groundswell for Boris to make a triumphant return, and I think it shows how many people see the problem as being the Tory government, not the specific individual leading it.

    I see 34% of Con voters think she will be worse than Johnson.

    What is the opposite of a polling bounce? A polling dip or a polling slump, or perhaps a polling splat?
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    Truss, more than any incoming PM I can think of, will be judged more by her actions in government rather than the mood music of her appointment (which is, let’s face it, terrible).

    I am not sure the instant reactions are going to tell us much other than she’s coming into office as a fairly unknown but uninspiring choice in the middle of a period of Tory self-indulgence holding this campaign whilst the country inches closer to the precipice.

    It’s hard to see anyone getting favourable ratings in that circumstance. Even a more engaging and uplifting choice.

    The Tories are in check, but they have a few moves still to play before this is all over. I am not convinced I could ever see myself voting Tory under Truss, but what happens next is much more important than the mood music today.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    https://news.sky.com/story/priti-patel-resigns-as-home-secretary-12690816

    Priti Patel has resigned as home secretary.

    Writing a letter to Boris Johnson on Monday afternoon, Ms Patel said "it has been the honour of my life to serve our country as home secretary for the last three years" and she will now "champion many of the policies and causes I have stood up for" from the backbenches.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,776
    theakes said:

    Problem is not Truss, Sunak etc, it is the Tory brand. Like all governments round about 12 years they have reached their sell by date. So many occasions, 1908 -16, Liberal led, 1931 - 1945( National and Coalition, 1951 - 1964 (Conservative), 1979 - 1997 (Conservative, really it should have happened in 1992, 1997 - 2010, (Labour), now the general perception is Conservative 2010 - present.
    There is an inevitability about it, it is that time again, "We need a change", and there is no Corbyn to even delay the process.
    It cannot be stopped, whatever the Daily Express may try and say.

    Yes. My reading too. Labour will really have to screw up to lose in 2024

    The Tories are done for now, barring a black swan
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    Chris said:

    Is this the honeymoon bounce then?

    Interestingly, I had a quick look at the polling. There seems to have been a slight bounce in the Tories sometime in late July/early August, which coincides with the rise of the general assumption that Truss would become next PM. I took a screen grab from wiki and highlighted the period of time, but I've no idea how to put pictures here. Regardless, it is easy to spot.

    I humbly submit that this was Truss's honeymoon bounce but, fittingly considering who she is replacing, it's more of a dead cat.
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    Leon said:

    theakes said:

    Problem is not Truss, Sunak etc, it is the Tory brand. Like all governments round about 12 years they have reached their sell by date. So many occasions, 1908 -16, Liberal led, 1931 - 1945( National and Coalition, 1951 - 1964 (Conservative), 1979 - 1997 (Conservative, really it should have happened in 1992, 1997 - 2010, (Labour), now the general perception is Conservative 2010 - present.
    There is an inevitability about it, it is that time again, "We need a change", and there is no Corbyn to even delay the process.
    It cannot be stopped, whatever the Daily Express may try and say.

    Yes. My reading too. Labour will really have to screw up to lose in 2024

    The Tories are done for now, barring a black swan
    Had a couple of those since the last election….

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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,446
    IshmaelZ said:

    Patel resigns, says Guido

    Preferring not to be sacked tomorrow.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748
    Andy_JS said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Patel resigns, says Guido

    Preferring not to be sacked tomorrow.
    I'd assume just making it clear that she wouldn't want to be reappointed tomorrow.
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    Do Priti and La Truss not get on, then ?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938
    IshmaelZ said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/priti-patel-resigns-as-home-secretary-12690816

    Priti Patel has resigned as home secretary.

    Writing a letter to Boris Johnson on Monday afternoon, Ms Patel said "it has been the honour of my life to serve our country as home secretary for the last three years" and she will now "champion many of the policies and causes I have stood up for" from the backbenches.

    Could be a shrewd move by Priti given Truss was likely to sack her anyway. If Truss is defeated at the next election she would not be directly associated with it while being a former Home Secretary she would be a strong contender for Leader of the Opposition
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,053
    For Liz, in the words of Yazz, The Only Way is Up.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Leon said:

    theakes said:

    Problem is not Truss, Sunak etc, it is the Tory brand. Like all governments round about 12 years they have reached their sell by date. So many occasions, 1908 -16, Liberal led, 1931 - 1945( National and Coalition, 1951 - 1964 (Conservative), 1979 - 1997 (Conservative, really it should have happened in 1992, 1997 - 2010, (Labour), now the general perception is Conservative 2010 - present.
    There is an inevitability about it, it is that time again, "We need a change", and there is no Corbyn to even delay the process.
    It cannot be stopped, whatever the Daily Express may try and say.

    Yes. My reading too. Labour will really have to screw up to lose in 2024

    The Tories are done for now, barring a black swan
    You’re not factoring in the warm, reassuring charisma of Truss. Her ability to connect and inspire is unique. She transcends the average.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,446
    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Patel resigns, says Guido

    Preferring not to be sacked tomorrow.
    I'd assume just making it clear that she wouldn't want to be reappointed tomorrow.
    I can't remember anything like it happening in previous years.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,913
    Lol, i see you're one of the The NI rise is unfair! Reversing the NI rise is unfair! people.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938
    Ukranians seem pleased with Truss anyway, calling her the 'new Iron Lady'

    https://twitter.com/FrankRGardner/status/1566788162503983104?s=20&t=wxPW-kLuKnv0s7lQIwcQ2g
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    IshmaelZ said:

    Patel resigns, says Guido

    Oh dear. How sad. Nevermind.
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    I think the Tories are stuck with Truss at the next GE, for good or bad.

    To give herself a fighting chance she could appoint a Cabinet of "all the talents" and trust her colleagues to run their departments well. However, if the rumours that she intends to appoint Suella Braverman as Home Secretary, and that JRM will be given a big job, are true, then it looks like she's following the Boris strategy of appointing on the basis of loyalty rather than merit. A huge mistake, I reckon. But good for Labour.
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    If Geoffrey Cox had behaved as Attorney General in the way that Suella Braverman did - and her successor will - Theresa May might well still be Prime Minister.
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    HYUFD said:

    Ukranians seem pleased with Truss anyway, calling her the 'new Iron Lady'

    https://twitter.com/FrankRGardner/status/1566788162503983104?s=20&t=wxPW-kLuKnv0s7lQIwcQ2g

    Of course Thatcher was so named by the Russians.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    HYUFD said:

    Ukranians seem pleased with Truss anyway, calling her the 'new Iron Lady'

    https://twitter.com/FrankRGardner/status/1566788162503983104?s=20&t=wxPW-kLuKnv0s7lQIwcQ2g

    Is that the only way people know how to refer to female politicians?

    The Adamantium Lady would be more modern and hip.
    IshmaelZ said:

    Patel resigns, says Guido

    Interesting - too soft?

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    HYUFD said:

    Ukranians seem pleased with Truss anyway, calling her the 'new Iron Lady'

    https://twitter.com/FrankRGardner/status/1566788162503983104?s=20&t=wxPW-kLuKnv0s7lQIwcQ2g

    Whatever will @Leon make of that outfit!
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Do Priti and La Truss not get on, then ?

    Dunno, but it has been received wisdom for weeks that she is losing the Home Office
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    edited September 2022

    If Geoffrey Cox had behaved as Attorney General in the way that Suella Braverman did - and her successor will - Theresa May might well still be Prime Minister.

    I was thinking the same thing the other day. Overdoing the bombast or not, he could have fudged it for political convenience and didn't.
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    HYUFD said:

    Ukranians seem pleased with Truss anyway, calling her the 'new Iron Lady'

    https://twitter.com/FrankRGardner/status/1566788162503983104?s=20&t=wxPW-kLuKnv0s7lQIwcQ2g

    Is that a reference to the ostentatious jewellery?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,913
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    theakes said:

    Problem is not Truss, Sunak etc, it is the Tory brand. Like all governments round about 12 years they have reached their sell by date. So many occasions, 1908 -16, Liberal led, 1931 - 1945( National and Coalition, 1951 - 1964 (Conservative), 1979 - 1997 (Conservative, really it should have happened in 1992, 1997 - 2010, (Labour), now the general perception is Conservative 2010 - present.
    There is an inevitability about it, it is that time again, "We need a change", and there is no Corbyn to even delay the process.
    It cannot be stopped, whatever the Daily Express may try and say.

    Yes. My reading too. Labour will really have to screw up to lose in 2024

    The Tories are done for now, barring a black swan
    Only question i think is how far short or over the line Captain Underpants is. Which likely determines if we are looking at 1 or 2 terms of urghliness
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,913
    HYUFD said:

    Ukranians seem pleased with Truss anyway, calling her the 'new Iron Lady'

    https://twitter.com/FrankRGardner/status/1566788162503983104?s=20&t=wxPW-kLuKnv0s7lQIwcQ2g

    The Mail say thats the new new iron lady
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    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Patel resigns, says Guido

    Preferring not to be sacked tomorrow.
    I'd assume just making it clear that she wouldn't want to be reappointed tomorrow.
    "I didn't want to be in your stupid cabinet anyway, so joke's on you actually..."
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    IshmaelZ said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/priti-patel-resigns-as-home-secretary-12690816

    Priti Patel has resigned as home secretary.

    Writing a letter to Boris Johnson on Monday afternoon, Ms Patel said "it has been the honour of my life to serve our country as home secretary for the last three years" and she will now "champion many of the policies and causes I have stood up for" from the backbenches.

    At least that is a positive
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited September 2022
    One, very small chink of light I can see, is that Truss might be considerably more libertarian than figures like Patel, hence fewer restrictions on protest, tilts at capital punishment, and pointless tilts at drug "crackdowns", etc.

    On the other hand, the promised repressive anti-union legislation mooted by some in her team, and the tough talk on Rwanda, seem to militate in a very different direction to that one.

    Is she authoritarian Liz, or ultra-libertarian Liz ?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Bit of a polling failure I think with her winning by only 15 points

    Rather.

    I reallllllly want to know if later deciders went Sunak.
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,435
    It's started.


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    kle4 said:

    If Geoffrey Cox had behaved as Attorney General in the way that Suella Braverman did - and her successor will - Theresa May might well still be Prime Minister.

    I was thinking the same thing the other day. Overdoing the bombast or not, he could have fudged it for political convenience.
    He believed in the rule of law and the importance of providing independent, disinterested legal guidance. Braverman was chosen for the role because she was happy to ignore both.

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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748

    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Patel resigns, says Guido

    Preferring not to be sacked tomorrow.
    I'd assume just making it clear that she wouldn't want to be reappointed tomorrow.
    "I didn't want to be in your stupid cabinet anyway, so joke's on you actually..."
    Perhaps that wasn't quite the message.

    (I really like Patel, and I imagine she was doing a decent job at the Home Office. Pretty hard to judge of course.)
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    HYUFD said:

    Ukranians seem pleased with Truss anyway, calling her the 'new Iron Lady'

    https://twitter.com/FrankRGardner/status/1566788162503983104?s=20&t=wxPW-kLuKnv0s7lQIwcQ2g

    Can you name one single rational reason why the Ukrainians wouldn't be effusively positive about anyone taking on the leadership of a country providing military aid?

    To do anything else would be absolutely crazy biting of the hand that feeds you.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Like, this is some revealing numbers from YouGov.

    Their headline figure was 66/34 Truss (which was in line with my expectation) but the wider question gets her down to 57


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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Patel positioning herself to pick up the pieces?
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    One, very small chink of light I can see, is that Truss might be considerably more libertarian than figures like Patel, hence fewer restrictions on protest, tilts at capital punishment, and pointless tilts at drug "crackdowns", etc.

    On the other hand, the promised repressive anti-union legislation mooted by some in her team, and the tough talk on Rwanda, seem to militate in a very different direction to that one.

    Is she authoritarian Liz or ultra-libertarian Liz ?

    Truss believes in freedom for people who think as she does.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625

    It's started.


    I appreciate the symbolism, but the star never went anywhere.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    One, very small chink of light I can see, is that Truss might be considerably more libertarian than figures like Patel, hence fewer restrictions on protest, tilts at capital punishment, and pointless tilts at drug "crackdowns", etc.

    On the other hand, the promised repressive anti-union legislation mooted by some in her team, and the tough talk on Rwanda, seem to militate in a very different direction to that one.

    Is she authoritarian Liz or ultra-libertarian Liz ?

    Truss believes in freedom for people who think as she does.

    Whatever that happens to be this week.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,913

    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Patel resigns, says Guido

    Preferring not to be sacked tomorrow.
    I'd assume just making it clear that she wouldn't want to be reappointed tomorrow.
    "I didn't want to be in your stupid cabinet anyway, so joke's on you actually..."
    'Its not even my stand by job, ive got so much else going on. I was only doing it for a mate.'
  • Options
    IshmaelZ said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/priti-patel-resigns-as-home-secretary-12690816

    Priti Patel has resigned as home secretary.

    Writing a letter to Boris Johnson on Monday afternoon, Ms Patel said "it has been the honour of my life to serve our country as home secretary for the last three years" and she will now "champion many of the policies and causes I have stood up for" from the backbenches.

    I think her and Truss must get on really badly. I can't see any other reason for Truss not to keep her as Home Sec, or for her not to want to stay - there's a lot of very unfinished business.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,776
    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    theakes said:

    Problem is not Truss, Sunak etc, it is the Tory brand. Like all governments round about 12 years they have reached their sell by date. So many occasions, 1908 -16, Liberal led, 1931 - 1945( National and Coalition, 1951 - 1964 (Conservative), 1979 - 1997 (Conservative, really it should have happened in 1992, 1997 - 2010, (Labour), now the general perception is Conservative 2010 - present.
    There is an inevitability about it, it is that time again, "We need a change", and there is no Corbyn to even delay the process.
    It cannot be stopped, whatever the Daily Express may try and say.

    Yes. My reading too. Labour will really have to screw up to lose in 2024

    The Tories are done for now, barring a black swan
    You’re not factoring in the warm, reassuring charisma of Truss. Her ability to connect and inspire is unique. She transcends the average.
    I reckon that even if Truss turns out to be surprisingly competent, and the Tories manage the various crises with impressive skill, they would STILL lose. People simply want a change now. They are BORED of the Tories

    The one thing that might save them is Remarkable Events. We have not been short of black swans of late. Eg if we end up in a hot war (God forbid) then who knows….
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Guido can sometimes be pretty snarky when it comes to internal Tory shenanigans, but this part referring to some of these pre-emptive resignations seems like pretty obvious spinning. When ones you like do it they are not flouncing, or about to be sacked, no sir. They are just super ambitious frontbenchers (well, Priti anyway) who for some unknown reason has decided they no longer wish to be in government in a way which has nothing whatsoever to do with the new PM.

    Neither are intended as snubs to Liz – unlike when Philip Hammond et al quit on Theresa May’s last day – however they are signals they both want a couple of years out of government
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    It's started.


    I appreciate the symbolism, but the star never went anywhere.
    I've been playing too much Factorio, I wondered at first why they'd replaced 'our star' with an oil symbol.
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    The woman in the bottom left corner in the white jacket speaks for all of us about Liz Truss becoming PM


  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    theakes said:

    Problem is not Truss, Sunak etc, it is the Tory brand. Like all governments round about 12 years they have reached their sell by date. So many occasions, 1908 -16, Liberal led, 1931 - 1945( National and Coalition, 1951 - 1964 (Conservative), 1979 - 1997 (Conservative, really it should have happened in 1992, 1997 - 2010, (Labour), now the general perception is Conservative 2010 - present.
    There is an inevitability about it, it is that time again, "We need a change", and there is no Corbyn to even delay the process.
    It cannot be stopped, whatever the Daily Express may try and say.

    Yes. My reading too. Labour will really have to screw up to lose in 2024

    The Tories are done for now, barring a black swan
    You’re not factoring in the warm, reassuring charisma of Truss. Her ability to connect and inspire is unique. She transcends the average.
    I reckon that even if Truss turns out to be surprisingly competent, and the Tories manage the various crises with impressive skill, they would STILL lose. People simply want a change now. They are BORED of the Tories

    The one thing that might save them is Remarkable Events. We have not been short of black swans of late. Eg if we end up in a hot war (God forbid) then who knows….
    Elections ultimately are always 'It's time for a change' vs 'Don't risk it'. Boris undoubtedly did well in an opportune moment to see a very unusual situation of a 9 year government getting an increase in the voting. But 14 years in, post (or during) recession, there would still be a sizable 'time for a change' vote even if Truss does pretty good.

    But it is a big majority to defend. 1992 remains graspable.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,776

    It's started.



    Awww bless

    It took the eurosceptics 41 years to get their referendum, so on that basis this campaign should bear fruit in 2063, by which time we will all have morphed into quasi-organic data sets onto mega-alien computers on the meta-planet Zuck 4.9
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    theakes said:

    Problem is not Truss, Sunak etc, it is the Tory brand. Like all governments round about 12 years they have reached their sell by date. So many occasions, 1908 -16, Liberal led, 1931 - 1945( National and Coalition, 1951 - 1964 (Conservative), 1979 - 1997 (Conservative, really it should have happened in 1992, 1997 - 2010, (Labour), now the general perception is Conservative 2010 - present.
    There is an inevitability about it, it is that time again, "We need a change", and there is no Corbyn to even delay the process.
    It cannot be stopped, whatever the Daily Express may try and say.

    Yes. My reading too. Labour will really have to screw up to lose in 2024

    The Tories are done for now, barring a black swan
    You’re not factoring in the warm, reassuring charisma of Truss. Her ability to connect and inspire is unique. She transcends the average.
    I reckon that even if Truss turns out to be surprisingly competent, and the Tories manage the various crises with impressive skill, they would STILL lose. People simply want a change now. They are BORED of the Tories

    The one thing that might save them is Remarkable Events. We have not been short of black swans of late. Eg if we end up in a hot war (God forbid) then who knows….
    Surely Truss is beyond engaging in a hot war to save her skin.
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623

    The woman in the bottom left corner in the white jacket speaks for all of us about Liz Truss becoming PM


    I think we've all been at those awkward last-day-in-the-office leaving do speeches.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,913

    It's started.


    We have your star. Here is a twinkly bit as proof. Further instructions will follow. Know this, however. Your star feels pain and blames you, not us.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Leon said:

    It's started.



    Awww bless

    It took the eurosceptics 41 years to get their referendum, so on that basis this campaign should bear fruit in 2063, by which time we will all have morphed into quasi-organic data sets onto mega-alien computers on the meta-planet Zuck 4.9
    And you’ll be there drinking their wine on someone else’s dime claiming Brexit was a great success.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,097
    Leon said:

    It's started.



    Awww bless

    It took the eurosceptics 41 years to get their referendum, so on that basis this campaign should bear fruit in 2063, by which time we will all have morphed into quasi-organic data sets onto mega-alien computers on the meta-planet Zuck 4.9
    I think you'll find that will just be the Tory leadership (or in some cases perhaps already is).

    I think the rest will still be stuck here.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,900
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bit of a polling failure I think with her winning by only 15 points

    Rather.

    I reallllllly want to know if later deciders went Sunak.
    Clearly they did.
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,641
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    It's started.



    Awww bless

    It took the eurosceptics 41 years to get their referendum, so on that basis this campaign should bear fruit in 2063, by which time we will all have morphed into quasi-organic data sets onto mega-alien computers on the meta-planet Zuck 4.9
    With HYUFD still refusing another independence referendum as it hasn't been a generation yet and you will be talking about teenage Zuckian alien girls.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,913

    The woman in the bottom left corner in the white jacket speaks for all of us about Liz Truss becoming PM


    I think we've all been at those awkward last-day-in-the-office leaving do speeches.
    That is a clone made from the DNA of Anne Widdicombe and Anna Soubry
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,518
    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    theakes said:

    Problem is not Truss, Sunak etc, it is the Tory brand. Like all governments round about 12 years they have reached their sell by date. So many occasions, 1908 -16, Liberal led, 1931 - 1945( National and Coalition, 1951 - 1964 (Conservative), 1979 - 1997 (Conservative, really it should have happened in 1992, 1997 - 2010, (Labour), now the general perception is Conservative 2010 - present.
    There is an inevitability about it, it is that time again, "We need a change", and there is no Corbyn to even delay the process.
    It cannot be stopped, whatever the Daily Express may try and say.

    Yes. My reading too. Labour will really have to screw up to lose in 2024

    The Tories are done for now, barring a black swan
    You’re not factoring in the warm, reassuring charisma of Truss. Her ability to connect and inspire is unique. She transcends the average.
    I reckon that even if Truss turns out to be surprisingly competent, and the Tories manage the various crises with impressive skill, they would STILL lose. People simply want a change now. They are BORED of the Tories

    The one thing that might save them is Remarkable Events. We have not been short of black swans of late. Eg if we end up in a hot war (God forbid) then who knows….
    Surely Truss is beyond engaging in a hot war to save her skin.
    Let's hope her Cosplay Thatcherism doesn't go that far.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    theakes said:

    Problem is not Truss, Sunak etc, it is the Tory brand. Like all governments round about 12 years they have reached their sell by date. So many occasions, 1908 -16, Liberal led, 1931 - 1945( National and Coalition, 1951 - 1964 (Conservative), 1979 - 1997 (Conservative, really it should have happened in 1992, 1997 - 2010, (Labour), now the general perception is Conservative 2010 - present.
    There is an inevitability about it, it is that time again, "We need a change", and there is no Corbyn to even delay the process.
    It cannot be stopped, whatever the Daily Express may try and say.

    Yes. My reading too. Labour will really have to screw up to lose in 2024

    The Tories are done for now, barring a black swan
    You’re not factoring in the warm, reassuring charisma of Truss. Her ability to connect and inspire is unique. She transcends the average.
    I reckon that even if Truss turns out to be surprisingly competent, and the Tories manage the various crises with impressive skill, they would STILL lose. People simply want a change now. They are BORED of the Tories

    The one thing that might save them is Remarkable Events. We have not been short of black swans of late. Eg if we end up in a hot war (God forbid) then who knows….
    Elections ultimately are always 'It's time for a change' vs 'Don't risk it'. Boris undoubtedly did well in an opportune moment to see a very unusual situation of a 9 year government getting an increase in the voting. But 14 years in, post (or during) recession, there would still be a sizable 'time for a change' vote even if Truss does pretty good.

    But it is a big majority to defend. 1992 remains graspable.
    Indeed. 7+ years of Truss is perfectly possible. It will require work and luck to get rid of her. It’s a harder task than Cameron or Blair faced.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,776
    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    It's started.



    Awww bless

    It took the eurosceptics 41 years to get their referendum, so on that basis this campaign should bear fruit in 2063, by which time we will all have morphed into quasi-organic data sets onto mega-alien computers on the meta-planet Zuck 4.9
    And you’ll be there drinking their wine on someone else’s dime claiming Brexit was a great success.
    Indeed. Felicidades



  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    It's started.



    Awww bless

    It took the eurosceptics 41 years to get their referendum, so on that basis this campaign should bear fruit in 2063, by which time we will all have morphed into quasi-organic data sets onto mega-alien computers on the meta-planet Zuck 4.9
    And you’ll be there drinking their wine on someone else’s dime claiming Brexit was a great success.
    Indeed. Felicidades



    Nice Yorkshire pudding.
  • Options
    Not to alarm anybody but I'm looking after PB Wednesday lunchtime/afternoon.

    So that covers PMQs which means a dozen MPs defect to Labour?
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    It's started.



    Awww bless

    It took the eurosceptics 41 years to get their referendum, so on that basis this campaign should bear fruit in 2063, by which time we will all have morphed into quasi-organic data sets onto mega-alien computers on the meta-planet Zuck 4.9
    And you’ll be there drinking their wine on someone else’s dime claiming Brexit was a great success.
    Indeed. Felicidades



    Someone seems to have decapitated and eviscerated your pork pie!
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,776
    2000 Dinghy People crossed at the weekend

    I quite like Priti Patel - or at least I weirdly fancy her - but she had one job, and she failed. Exeunt
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,518

    It's started.


    I expect that it will be a modest turnout. I am working this weekend, otherwise might have made the effort.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,776
    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    It's started.



    Awww bless

    It took the eurosceptics 41 years to get their referendum, so on that basis this campaign should bear fruit in 2063, by which time we will all have morphed into quasi-organic data sets onto mega-alien computers on the meta-planet Zuck 4.9
    And you’ll be there drinking their wine on someone else’s dime claiming Brexit was a great success.
    Indeed. Felicidades



    Nice Yorkshire pudding.
    Aunt Bessie’s. Surprised to find it in Alentejo, TBH
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,043
    HYUFD said:

    So looks like replacing Boris was a complete waste of time in reviving Tory popularity at least. More voters think Truss will be a worse PM than Boris than a better one.

    Not that Sunak would have done much better, he trailed Starmer by 9% as preferred PM.

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1566826044656607232?s=20&t=wxPW-kLuKnv0s7lQIwcQ2g

    Anyway, let us see if Truss' new Cabinet and policies on cost of living can see her get some sort of bounce at least

    He had to go. It's just your party picked one of the weakest candidates available.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,053
    Foxy said:

    It's started.


    I expect that it will be a modest turnout. I am working this weekend, otherwise might have made the effort.
    Why would the EU take us back ?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,518
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    theakes said:

    Problem is not Truss, Sunak etc, it is the Tory brand. Like all governments round about 12 years they have reached their sell by date. So many occasions, 1908 -16, Liberal led, 1931 - 1945( National and Coalition, 1951 - 1964 (Conservative), 1979 - 1997 (Conservative, really it should have happened in 1992, 1997 - 2010, (Labour), now the general perception is Conservative 2010 - present.
    There is an inevitability about it, it is that time again, "We need a change", and there is no Corbyn to even delay the process.
    It cannot be stopped, whatever the Daily Express may try and say.

    Yes. My reading too. Labour will really have to screw up to lose in 2024

    The Tories are done for now, barring a black swan
    You’re not factoring in the warm, reassuring charisma of Truss. Her ability to connect and inspire is unique. She transcends the average.
    I reckon that even if Truss turns out to be surprisingly competent, and the Tories manage the various crises with impressive skill, they would STILL lose. People simply want a change now. They are BORED of the Tories

    The one thing that might save them is Remarkable Events. We have not been short of black swans of late. Eg if we end up in a hot war (God forbid) then who knows….
    Elections ultimately are always 'It's time for a change' vs 'Don't risk it'. Boris undoubtedly did well in an opportune moment to see a very unusual situation of a 9 year government getting an increase in the voting. But 14 years in, post (or during) recession, there would still be a sizable 'time for a change' vote even if Truss does pretty good.

    But it is a big majority to defend. 1992 remains graspable.
    Indeed. 7+ years of Truss is perfectly possible. It will require work and luck to get rid of her. It’s a harder task than Cameron or Blair faced.
    Sure. No room for complacency, need to be very well drilled to win every seat possible.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,932
    Leon said:

    2000 Dinghy People crossed at the weekend

    I quite like Priti Patel - or at least I weirdly fancy her - but she had one job, and she failed. Exeunt

    So how would you solve the problem in a way that doesn't break international and maritime law???
  • Options
    I've decided to keep my Tory membership going, there's going to be another leadership contest in the next year.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited September 2022
    I'm sure it's nothing to worry about but Binance have decided to auto-convert users stable coin assets into it's own stablecoin BUSD. I'm sure this happening after Binance has been seeing sustained massive withdrawls of USDC is a coincidence and everything is fine.

    https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/e62f703604a94538a1f1bc803b2d579f
    https://twitter.com/binance/status/1566818107758460929
  • Options
    BBC economics editor saying that Truss and her team are engaged with energy companies as of now to agree a 2 year energy price cap for consumers at a cost of approximately 90 billion

    Additional a price cap of some sort will also apply to small businesses inflating the figure over £100 billion

    If Truss announces this scheme or something similar than the debate changes and of course consumers will be relieved

    And before anyone says windfall taxes will pay for this they simply will not, and it is likely to be a scheme payable over 20 years on energy bills
  • Options
    Alistair said:

    I'm sure it's nothing to worry about but Binance have decided to auto-convert users stable coin assets into it's own stablecoin BUSD. I'm sure this happening after Binance has been seeing sustained massive withdrawls of USDC is a coincidence and everything is fine.

    https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/e62f703604a94538a1f1bc803b2d579f
    https://twitter.com/binance/status/1566818107758460929

    You're such a cynic.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,913

    I've decided to keep my Tory membership going, there's going to be another leadership contest in the next year.

    That and no other party will accept people with £2000 Gola trainers and limited edition sexual violence analogies
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    It's started.


    I expect that it will be a modest turnout. I am working this weekend, otherwise might have made the effort.
    Why would the EU take us back ?
    Net contributer.

    But it'd take several generations at least I think.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    I've decided to keep my Tory membership going, there's going to be another leadership contest in the next year.

    MPs sending letters in already? Boris on manoeuvres?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,776
    For a sense of how mad it is to look more than 10 years into the future, this is some stat

    China’s population is expected to halve - HALVE - by 2100, and the sharp decline starts now

    And at least ten other countries - big ones like Korea and Italy - are in the same boat

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1566806384838152193?s=21&t=MRZkjO8ld5QUWt5i1WHZeQ
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    Jonathan said:

    I've decided to keep my Tory membership going, there's going to be another leadership contest in the next year.

    MPs sending letters in already? Boris on manoeuvres?
    Yes and yes.
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    It's started.


    I expect that it will be a modest turnout. I am working this weekend, otherwise might have made the effort.
    Shame. The rage filled afternoon of some folk arguing over the numbers attending that big pro EU march in London was one of the highlights of Brexit.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Leon said:

    For a sense of how mad it is to look more than 10 years into the future, this is some stat

    China’s population is expected to halve - HALVE - by 2100, and the sharp decline starts now

    And at least ten other countries - big ones like Korea and Italy - are in the same boat

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1566806384838152193?s=21&t=MRZkjO8ld5QUWt5i1WHZeQ

    That's a lot of empty cities.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    2000 Dinghy People crossed at the weekend

    I quite like Priti Patel - or at least I weirdly fancy her - but she had one job, and she failed. Exeunt

    So how would you solve the problem in a way that doesn't break international and maritime law???
    It's no solution, but you could just declare the waters out of bounds and sink anyone that strays.
    I think that satisfies the legal restrictions.

This discussion has been closed.