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The first post leadership polling not good for Truss – politicalbetting.com
The first post leadership polling not good for Truss – politicalbetting.com
I never know what to make of quickie polls like the one published by YouGov in the last half hour. This was carried out after the leadership election result was announced.
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https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1566827719958069248
Not that Sunak would have done much better, he trailed Starmer by 9% as preferred PM.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1566826044656607232?s=20&t=wxPW-kLuKnv0s7lQIwcQ2g
Anyway, let us see if Truss' new Cabinet and policies on cost of living can see her get some sort of bounce at least
It's more of a question of if she buys into the shite about her being ideologically fixated, and it does not work, or if she appoints complete lemmings, and they screw up.
The most telling stat, I think, is the proportion saying they expect her to be "about the same" as Boris Johnson. This indicates a deep seated ennui. It shows there is no great groundswell for Boris to make a triumphant return, and I think it shows how many people see the problem as being the Tory government, not the specific individual leading it.
With such low expectations it is at least much harder to disappoint.
https://www.farnhamherald.com/news/politics/local-reaction-as-liz-truss-confirmed-as-new-conservative-party-leader-562180#Echobox=1662380024
There is an inevitability about it, it is that time again, "We need a change", and there is no Corbyn to even delay the process.
It cannot be stopped, whatever the Daily Express may try and say.
What is the opposite of a polling bounce? A polling dip or a polling slump, or perhaps a polling splat?
I am not sure the instant reactions are going to tell us much other than she’s coming into office as a fairly unknown but uninspiring choice in the middle of a period of Tory self-indulgence holding this campaign whilst the country inches closer to the precipice.
It’s hard to see anyone getting favourable ratings in that circumstance. Even a more engaging and uplifting choice.
The Tories are in check, but they have a few moves still to play before this is all over. I am not convinced I could ever see myself voting Tory under Truss, but what happens next is much more important than the mood music today.
Priti Patel has resigned as home secretary.
Writing a letter to Boris Johnson on Monday afternoon, Ms Patel said "it has been the honour of my life to serve our country as home secretary for the last three years" and she will now "champion many of the policies and causes I have stood up for" from the backbenches.
The Tories are done for now, barring a black swan
I humbly submit that this was Truss's honeymoon bounce but, fittingly considering who she is replacing, it's more of a dead cat.
https://twitter.com/FrankRGardner/status/1566788162503983104?s=20&t=wxPW-kLuKnv0s7lQIwcQ2g
To give herself a fighting chance she could appoint a Cabinet of "all the talents" and trust her colleagues to run their departments well. However, if the rumours that she intends to appoint Suella Braverman as Home Secretary, and that JRM will be given a big job, are true, then it looks like she's following the Boris strategy of appointing on the basis of loyalty rather than merit. A huge mistake, I reckon. But good for Labour.
The Adamantium Lady would be more modern and hip. Interesting - too soft?
On the other hand, the promised repressive anti-union legislation mooted by some in her team, and the tough talk on Rwanda, seem to militate in a very different direction to that one.
Is she authoritarian Liz, or ultra-libertarian Liz ?
I reallllllly want to know if later deciders went Sunak.
(I really like Patel, and I imagine she was doing a decent job at the Home Office. Pretty hard to judge of course.)
To do anything else would be absolutely crazy biting of the hand that feeds you.
Their headline figure was 66/34 Truss (which was in line with my expectation) but the wider question gets her down to 57
The one thing that might save them is Remarkable Events. We have not been short of black swans of late. Eg if we end up in a hot war (God forbid) then who knows….
Neither are intended as snubs to Liz – unlike when Philip Hammond et al quit on Theresa May’s last day – however they are signals they both want a couple of years out of government
But it is a big majority to defend. 1992 remains graspable.
Awww bless
It took the eurosceptics 41 years to get their referendum, so on that basis this campaign should bear fruit in 2063, by which time we will all have morphed into quasi-organic data sets onto mega-alien computers on the meta-planet Zuck 4.9
I think the rest will still be stuck here.
So that covers PMQs which means a dozen MPs defect to Labour?
I quite like Priti Patel - or at least I weirdly fancy her - but she had one job, and she failed. Exeunt
A good day.
Edit: And the "Johnson won't be leader at Conference bet" - thanks to @Foxy for that one.
https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/e62f703604a94538a1f1bc803b2d579f
https://twitter.com/binance/status/1566818107758460929
Additional a price cap of some sort will also apply to small businesses inflating the figure over £100 billion
If Truss announces this scheme or something similar than the debate changes and of course consumers will be relieved
And before anyone says windfall taxes will pay for this they simply will not, and it is likely to be a scheme payable over 20 years on energy bills
But it'd take several generations at least I think.
China’s population is expected to halve - HALVE - by 2100, and the sharp decline starts now
And at least ten other countries - big ones like Korea and Italy - are in the same boat
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1566806384838152193?s=21&t=MRZkjO8ld5QUWt5i1WHZeQ
I think that satisfies the legal restrictions.