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Ladbrokes open the betting on the Truss successor – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 15 in General
imageLadbrokes open the betting on the Truss successor – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,369
    Bah: is Truss's successor even born yet?

    She's only 48 or so, so she has at least 30 years in the top job.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,683
    edited September 5
    First, like Truss?

    Nah; second, like Sunak.

    Congratulations to Liz. She has had the expectations bar set helpfully low by both her predecessor and her detractors; hopefully she clears it comfortably (for all our sakes).
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 566
    Mordaunt looks reasonable value at 12.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,920
    Starmer: “there can be no justification for not freezing energy prices and imposing a windfall tax on producers”.

    Other than it will break the market mechanism and lead to rationing, and disincentivise investment in boosting supply.

    Bore off you dimwitted twit. We are in the midst of a once in a generation energy crisis and now have a PM who spent years working in the energy sector. Let’s see what she does.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,721
    rcs1000 said:

    Bah: is Truss's successor even born yet?

    She's only 48 or so, so she has at least 30 years in the top job.

    Or the Tories have at least 30 years out of power after 2024 once the voting system gets changed.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,519
    edited September 5
    Edit: I can't read.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,109
    Endillion said:

    First, like Truss?

    Nah; second, like Sunak.

    Congratulations to Liz. She has had the expectations bar set helpfully low by both her predecessor and her detractors; hopefully she clears it comfortably (for all our sakes).

    A 17 point lead for Labour...

    Will it go up, or down?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,316
    Johnson, I think.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697
    Are the Lib Dems the big winners here? Scotland/South of England.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,438
    AlistairM said:

    Edit: I can't read.

    He is.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769
    Endillion said:

    First, like Truss?

    Nah; second, like Sunak.

    Congratulations to Liz. She has had the expectations bar set helpfully low by both her predecessor and her detractors; hopefully she clears it comfortably (for all our sakes).

    Given everything I've heard about Liz my only expectation is that she will undershoot the bar while starring into the oncoming headlamps...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,100
    Lay Penny
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,973
    If Liz Truss is the answer, we're asking the wrong question.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,721
    Presumably today we get a very big jump in Starmer in the next PM betting simply because until now it was odds on the "next PM" would be Truss or Sunak.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,282
    Boris and Sunak both at 12 great value.
    Given that they each represent a significant faction among MP's and members.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,934
    edited September 5
    FPT
    rcs1000 said:

    This morning, my plane touched down at Gatwick at 9:22am, and I was at my flat in Central London at 10:45.

    Thameslink + Crossrail is amazing.

    Wrt Crossrail on 6th November the new section will be linked up to the rest of the line.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    Come on spinners. Its not 'lowest winning margin' its 'triumphant endorsement from a party given two amazing candidates to choose from '
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769

    If Liz Truss is the answer, we're asking the wrong question.

    More likely you are asking the wrong people....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,109
    The low number for Truss also blows up her cunning IndyRef scheme.

    Why should Scots meet a 60% threshold, if she only got 47%...
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 9,854
    edited September 5
    dixiedean said:

    Boris and Sunak both at 12 great value.
    Given that they each represent a significant faction among MP's and members.

    I'd lay both except that laying at 12 for a market that won't pay out for years is distinctly unappealing.

    They're the David Milliband of the Tory Party now.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    Eabhal said:

    Are the Lib Dems the big winners here? Scotland/South of England.

    South maybe yes
    Scotland nah
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,282
    "I will deliver on the energy crisis" can be read more than one way.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,920

    Lay Penny

    Suits you sir
  • glwglw Posts: 8,777

    Come on spinners. Its not 'lowest winning margin' its 'triumphant endorsement from a party given two amazing candidates to choose from '

    I thought Brady's "outstanding candidates" was hilarious. The quality of British politicians has never been lower in living memory.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,109
    JUST IN: Markets are pretty unmoved for now by the confirmation that Liz Truss will be the UK's next prime minister

    The pound is trading at around the $1.15 level and benchmark 10-year bond yields are steady

    Latest: http://bloom.bg/3AT2nfH https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1566759040897748992/photo/1
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769
    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1566758811947368449

    Shaun Lintern
    @ShaunLintern
    ·
    30s
    If Liz Truss follows through on things she has said on the NHS then we should see action on drs pensions, rebuilding
    @TeamQEH
    and other hospitals, more funding for social care and somehow sorting GP access.

    Billions and billions of spending just there.

    + billions on energy bills
    + billions on social care

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    glw said:

    Come on spinners. Its not 'lowest winning margin' its 'triumphant endorsement from a party given two amazing candidates to choose from '

    I thought Brady's "outstanding candidates" was hilarious. The quality of British politicians has never been lower in living memory.
    Old Lady Brady and his bag of spare parts
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    FTPT

    What time does the buyer's remorse start in Tory WhatsApp groups?

    Having thought about this 57% is really bad for Truss.

    First choice of less than 1-in-6 MPs but deriving her authority from an overwhelming membership mandate was her story.

    Now it's unpopular with MPs, barely prefered by the membership.

    So glad I held off betting on Truss percentage, I was this close to lumping on the 60-69.99 bands this morning.

    I wonder if late deciders went Sunak?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    dixiedean said:

    "I will deliver on the energy crisis" can be read more than one way.

    Its a threat!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,282

    dixiedean said:

    Boris and Sunak both at 12 great value.
    Given that they each represent a significant faction among MP's and members.

    I'd lay both except that laying at 12 for a market that won't pay out for years is distinctly unappealing.

    They're the David Milliband of the Tory Party now.
    Well.
    They need to stick around first of course.
    But if it goes tits up they'll need to be quick about it.
    If it's before the next election it's one of them I think.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697
    edited September 5

    Eabhal said:

    Are the Lib Dems the big winners here? Scotland/South of England.

    South maybe yes
    Scotland nah
    Ah, I just remembered they don't have my favourite ever politician leading them anymore.


  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,920
    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    What time does the buyer's remorse start in Tory WhatsApp groups?

    Having thought about this 57% is really bad for Truss.

    First choice of less than 1-in-6 MPs but deriving her authority from an overwhelming membership mandate was her story.

    Now it's unpopular with MPs, barely prefered by the membership.

    So glad I held off betting on Truss percentage, I was this close to lumping on the 60-69.99 bands this morning.

    I wonder if late deciders went Sunak?
    It will mean she needs to adopt a collegiate approach and have a properly functioning Cabinet.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,973
    On another point: it's a sign of Starmer's political stupidity that on a day when the Conservatives choose a new leader, on a date known for a month or more, he is at a school in *North London*.

    He really does give the impression that he'd be PM of the middle-class Londoners, not the country.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,369
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    rcs1000 said:

    This morning, my plane touched down at Gatwick at 9:22am, and I was at my flat in Central London at 10:45.

    Thameslink + Crossrail is amazing.

    Wrt Crossrail on 6th November the new section will be linked up to the rest of the line.
    Given I live about four minutes walk from Tottenham Court Road station, Crossrail is going to be a massive game changer for me.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,659
    Betting Post

    F1: Backed Perez each way at 14 (with boost) to win in Monza.

    The Red Bull is a beast in a straight line.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769
    FPT
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Lewis still doesn’t get that there’s not enough supply. He can scream at the government to do something all he likes, but demand has to fall or there will be rationing and blackouts.
    No one yet is talking about how we can reduce (across Europe) demand enough to match the new supply...

    And until we do that prices will continually leap up in price....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,739

    Johnson, I think.

    No; the US prevents me betting even behind a VPN, but I’d expect laying Johnson to be value, as it was for Arcuri.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    What time does the buyer's remorse start in Tory WhatsApp groups?

    Having thought about this 57% is really bad for Truss.

    First choice of less than 1-in-6 MPs but deriving her authority from an overwhelming membership mandate was her story.

    Now it's unpopular with MPs, barely prefered by the membership.

    So glad I held off betting on Truss percentage, I was this close to lumping on the 60-69.99 bands this morning.

    I wonder if late deciders went Sunak?
    My guess is that Brady delivered this to Truss (probably by accident to be fair) by sending out ballots so soon after start of the race because of a fear about a postal strike.

    If no one could have voted until say the 4th week of this it may have looked very different.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1566758811947368449

    Shaun Lintern
    @ShaunLintern
    ·
    30s
    If Liz Truss follows through on things she has said on the NHS then we should see action on drs pensions, rebuilding
    @TeamQEH
    and other hospitals, more funding for social care and somehow sorting GP access.

    Billions and billions of spending just there.

    + billions on energy bills
    + billions on social care

    We must stop this damaging threat to fund the NHS!
    Mason has already been breathlessly comndemning the freeze the wholesale price of energy alleged plan as it will have to be paid for. The horror.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,109
    Labour pushing a video with Truss's comments on British workers lacking "graft" https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1566753744984936451
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,912
    At this early point I would make Badenoch or Patel or Braverman favourite to be next Tory leader, assuming Truss still leads the party into the next election and fails to win it. One of them likely facing Tugendhat in the final 2
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,912
    @David_Cameron
    Many congratulations to new PM
    @trussliz
    . At this time of challenge & global uncertainty, I wish the new government well. I never forget the support I had from all former Conservative leaders when I won the ballot in 2005 & I hope all Conservatives will unite behind the new PM
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,508
    glw said:

    Come on spinners. Its not 'lowest winning margin' its 'triumphant endorsement from a party given two amazing candidates to choose from '

    I thought Brady's "outstanding candidates" was hilarious. The quality of British politicians has never been lower in living memory.
    In one of the biographies I read, it was part of John Majors speech too, speaking at the announcement of his successor “with such outstanding candidates, this was an election the Conservative Party couldn’t lose.”

    “Yes, because you were not in it.” An MP shouted from the front row.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,739
    For comparison, Boris Johnson won 66.4% of the vote in 2019, David Cameron 67.6% in 2005 and Iain Duncan Smith 60.7% in 2001.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,912
    @JustinWelby
    I am praying for Liz Truss as she takes on the great responsibilities of leadership at a time of such significant challenges.

    May God guide her, and all who serve in our political life, towards His hope for our nation, and particular care for those who are vulnerable
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited September 5
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Are the Lib Dems the big winners here? Scotland/South of England.

    South maybe yes
    Scotland nah
    Ah, I just remembered they don't have my favourite ever politician leading them anymore.


    Tbf a recovery could cost the Cons a seat or two in Scotland to the SNP but they are a million miles from retaking Berwickshire or anywhere in Aberdeenshire. 2 to 3 GE/Holyrood haul for that
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,910
    edited September 5
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Are the Lib Dems the big winners here? Scotland/South of England.

    South maybe yes
    Scotland nah
    Ah, I just remembered they don't have my favourite ever politician leading them anymore.


    No longer on our TV screens, alas. Mr C-H does not seem so fond of appearing* in farmyard, erm, birds and bees movies.

    *as the unwitting commentator, etc. I hasten to add.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,912
    @Keir_Starmer
    ·
    30m
    I'd like to congratulate our next Prime Minister Liz Truss as she prepares for office.

    But after 12 years of the Tories all we have to show for it is low wages, high prices, and a Tory cost of living crisis.

    Only Labour can deliver the fresh start our country needs.

    @EdwardJDavey
    Under Liz Truss, we're set to see more of the same crisis and chaos as under Boris Johnson. From the cost of living emergency to the NHS crisis, the Conservatives have shown they don’t care, and have no plan.

    It's time to scrap the energy price hike then call a General Election.

    @NicolaSturgeon
    Congratulations to Liz Truss. Our political differences are deep, but I will seek to build a good working relationship with her as I did with last 3 PMs.
    She must now freeze energy bills for people & businesses, deliver more cash support, and increase funding for public services
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,871
    Scott_xP said:

    The low number for Truss also blows up her cunning IndyRef scheme.

    Why should Scots meet a 60% threshold, if she only got 47%...

    The obvious response to the 60% threshold was there therefore wasn't a mandate for leaving the EU then. How to upset both leavers and remainers simultaneously with a policy announcement.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,100
    Big shout out to William Hills who settled immediately, and faster than Betfair.

    Bookies have been v. fair on this one, although I wait to see (with interest) how heavily Hills will now limit my account.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,912
    Scott_xP said:

    The low number for Truss also blows up her cunning IndyRef scheme.

    Why should Scots meet a 60% threshold, if she only got 47%...

    The 60% threshold is support for indyref2 to even get a vote
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited September 5
    HYUFD said:

    @Keir_Starmer
    ·
    30m
    I'd like to congratulate our next Prime Minister Liz Truss as she prepares for office.

    But after 12 years of the Tories all we have to show for it is low wages, high prices, and a Tory cost of living crisis.

    Only Labour can deliver the fresh start our country needs.

    @EdwardJDavey
    Under Liz Truss, we're set to see more of the same crisis and chaos as under Boris Johnson. From the cost of living emergency to the NHS crisis, the Conservatives have shown they don’t care, and have no plan.

    It's time to scrap the energy price hike then call a General Election.

    @NicolaSturgeon
    Congratulations to Liz Truss. Our political differences are deep, but I will seek to build a good working relationship with her as I did with last 3 PMs.
    She must now freeze energy bills for people & businesses, deliver more cash support, and increase funding for public services

    Sturgeon isnt daft. She knows what will happen later this week.
    Davey, yep, not bad, over the target.
    Starmer - is it PMQs? Ill use my PMQs line
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,910
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The low number for Truss also blows up her cunning IndyRef scheme.

    Why should Scots meet a 60% threshold, if she only got 47%...

    The 60% threshold is support for indyref2 to even get a vote
    How remarkable, you have gleefully dumped the doctrine of parliamentary supremacy in favour of anyone who can fiddle an opinion poll. Your party is not fit to hold the title of 'Conservative'.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697
    HYUFD said:

    @David_Cameron
    Many congratulations to new PM
    @trussliz
    . At this time of challenge & global uncertainty, I wish the new government well. I never forget the support I had from all former Conservative leaders when I won the ballot in 2005 & I hope all Conservatives will unite behind the new PM

    Jumping the gun somewhat. The Queen might as well just call for Starmer now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    rcs1000 said:

    Bah: is Truss's successor even born yet?

    She's only 48 or so, so she has at least 30 years in the top job.

    Don’t forget the time value of money, now we have the return of interest rates and inflation.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,769
    IanB2 said:

    For comparison, Boris Johnson won 66.4% of the vote in 2019, David Cameron 67.6% in 2005 and Iain Duncan Smith 60.7% in 2001.

    The number of similarities this election result has to IDS's stint is frankly worrying...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    @David_Cameron
    Many congratulations to new PM
    @trussliz
    . At this time of challenge & global uncertainty, I wish the new government well. I never forget the support I had from all former Conservative leaders when I won the ballot in 2005 & I hope all Conservatives will unite behind the new PM

    Jumping the gun somewhat. The Queen might as well just call for Starmer now.
    Huw Edwards has already teed up the 'they doubted Margaret in 75 too' narrative
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,109
    rcs1000 said:

    Bah: is Truss's successor even born yet?

    She's only 48 or so, so she has at least 30 years in the top job.

    I wonder if she will last 30 weeks...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The low number for Truss also blows up her cunning IndyRef scheme.

    Why should Scots meet a 60% threshold, if she only got 47%...

    The 60% threshold is support for indyref2 to even get a vote
    How remarkable, you have gleefully dumped the doctrine of parliamentary supremacy in favour of anyone who can fiddle an opinion poll. Your party is not fit to hold the title of 'Conservative'.
    Sturgeon is on PB confirmed. She just tweeted that.
  • eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    For comparison, Boris Johnson won 66.4% of the vote in 2019, David Cameron 67.6% in 2005 and Iain Duncan Smith 60.7% in 2001.

    The number of similarities this election result has to IDS's stint is frankly worrying...
    IDS at least had the decency to be useless in opposition.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,233
    HYUFD said:

    At this early point I would make Badenoch or Patel or Braverman favourite to be next Tory leader, assuming Truss still leads the party into the next election and fails to win it. One of them likely facing Tugendhat in the final 2

    I think that these odds might be better value when you see what Cabinet role, if any, these candidates get tomorrow. Those who don't get posts will find it very, very difficult to remain in the news for several years. Look what happened to Hunt this time.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,438
    Is that it for the day now? Wait until tomorrow for the official take over?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,912
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The low number for Truss also blows up her cunning IndyRef scheme.

    Why should Scots meet a 60% threshold, if she only got 47%...

    The 60% threshold is support for indyref2 to even get a vote
    How remarkable, you have gleefully dumped the doctrine of parliamentary supremacy in favour of anyone who can fiddle an opinion poll. Your party is not fit to hold the title of 'Conservative'.
    Not my position, Truss', however still her decision and that of Westminster and she has made clear she will not allow indyref2 without at least 60%+ wanting one for a year consistently and will put that in law
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,990
    edited September 5
    glw said:

    Come on spinners. Its not 'lowest winning margin' its 'triumphant endorsement from a party given two amazing candidates to choose from '

    I thought Brady's "outstanding candidates" was hilarious. The quality of British politicians has never been lower in living memory.
    TBF he didn't say outstandingly good.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 626
    rcs1000 said:

    Bah: is Truss's successor even born yet?

    She's only 48 or so, so she has at least 30 years in the top job.

    Is she taking over PB then ? .. :smiley:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,912
    edited September 5
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    At this early point I would make Badenoch or Patel or Braverman favourite to be next Tory leader, assuming Truss still leads the party into the next election and fails to win it. One of them likely facing Tugendhat in the final 2

    I think that these odds might be better value when you see what Cabinet role, if any, these candidates get tomorrow. Those who don't get posts will find it very, very difficult to remain in the news for several years. Look what happened to Hunt this time.
    Braverman set to be Home Secretary would be a good bet to be Tory Leader of the Opposition if Truss loses
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,109
    DavidL said:

    Those who don't get posts will find it very, very difficult to remain in the news for several years. Look what happened to Hunt this time.

    Hunt was facing 3 years of King BoZo. Nobody got a look in.

    The defeated this time are facing #ThickLizzy. There will be no shortage of opportunities to regretfully point out her misfortunes to a willing press.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited September 5
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    For comparison, Boris Johnson won 66.4% of the vote in 2019, David Cameron 67.6% in 2005 and Iain Duncan Smith 60.7% in 2001.

    The number of similarities this election result has to IDS's stint is frankly worrying...
    However we must remember of the three previous head to heads

    Clarke - EUphile in a broadly eurosceptic or wary electorate
    Davis - fucking idiot who used big jugs to campaign
    Hunt - remainer in an age of Get Brexit Done

    Sunak was just another option without the nonsense baggage as above
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,990
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    For comparison, Boris Johnson won 66.4% of the vote in 2019, David Cameron 67.6% in 2005 and Iain Duncan Smith 60.7% in 2001.

    The number of similarities this election result has to IDS's stint is frankly worrying...
    More worrying is the obvious difference - her party is in government.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,233

    Is that it for the day now? Wait until tomorrow for the official take over?

    Presumably she will be heading to Balmoral to kiss hands etc.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,280
    edited September 5
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The low number for Truss also blows up her cunning IndyRef scheme.

    Why should Scots meet a 60% threshold, if she only got 47%...

    The 60% threshold is support for indyref2 to even get a vote
    The other part of the cunning plan was that Yes would have to get 50% plus 1 of the whole electorate, 47% not even close.

    The Truss obviously carrying on the one rule for bosses and another for everyone else vibe.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,519
    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Bah: is Truss's successor even born yet?

    She's only 48 or so, so she has at least 30 years in the top job.

    I wonder if she will last 30 weeks...
    She won't last 30 months. Either got rid of by the Tories or the electorate before then.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,508
    HYUFD said:

    At this early point I would make Badenoch or Patel or Braverman favourite to be next Tory leader, assuming Truss still leads the party into the next election and fails to win it. One of them likely facing Tugendhat in the final 2

    The Party Membership clearly want Badenoch. The only winning bet today is Badenoch as LOTO.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,109
    NEW: Current Deputy PM @DominicRaab says he’s not expecting to be in the cabinet.

    Says he’s pretty sure he’ll be out of a job tomorrow.


    https://twitter.com/ShehabKhan/status/1566763999315857410
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,990
    Scott_xP said:

    The low number for Truss also blows up her cunning IndyRef scheme.

    Why should Scots meet a 60% threshold, if she only got 47%...

    It's a return to traditional Tory values.

    Them, and us.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    DavidL said:

    Is that it for the day now? Wait until tomorrow for the official take over?

    Presumably she will be heading to Balmoral to kiss hands etc.
    Yes, that’s the plan. Johnson and Truss both meeting HM at Balmoral tomorrow.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,100
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    At this early point I would make Badenoch or Patel or Braverman favourite to be next Tory leader, assuming Truss still leads the party into the next election and fails to win it. One of them likely facing Tugendhat in the final 2

    I think that these odds might be better value when you see what Cabinet role, if any, these candidates get tomorrow. Those who don't get posts will find it very, very difficult to remain in the news for several years. Look what happened to Hunt this time.
    If Truss is smart (haha) she'll reach out.

    She doesn't have Boris's mandate amongst either the MPs or the members, and she should look to build bridges.

    If she doesn't then she'll have a whispering campaign going against her almost immediately, and the next 12 months will be very difficult for her.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,519

    HYUFD said:

    At this early point I would make Badenoch or Patel or Braverman favourite to be next Tory leader, assuming Truss still leads the party into the next election and fails to win it. One of them likely facing Tugendhat in the final 2

    The Party Membership clearly want Badenoch. The only winning bet today is Badenoch as LOTO.
    In a member's vote Truss would have lost to both Badenoch or PM. The most important rounds of voting were on subsequent days when the MPs knocked both of them out.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,932
    Scott_xP said:

    The low number for Truss also blows up her cunning IndyRef scheme.

    Why should Scots meet a 60% threshold, if she only got 47%...

    Electing a leader who can be booted out at any moment is a bit different to creating a new sovereign state.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,642
    Delighted to see a Remainer in No.10.

    Let's see what her first moves are. Application to join the Euro, perhaps?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,508
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    For comparison, Boris Johnson won 66.4% of the vote in 2019, David Cameron 67.6% in 2005 and Iain Duncan Smith 60.7% in 2001.

    The number of similarities this election result has to IDS's stint is frankly worrying...
    More worrying is the obvious difference - her party is in government.
    She didn’t have much to say today.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,233
    edited September 5

    HYUFD said:

    At this early point I would make Badenoch or Patel or Braverman favourite to be next Tory leader, assuming Truss still leads the party into the next election and fails to win it. One of them likely facing Tugendhat in the final 2

    The Party Membership clearly want Badenoch. The only winning bet today is Badenoch as LOTO.
    She needs to get something substantial and she needs to run it well with some new thinking. At the moment she is a series of interesting soundbites.

    Edit, education would be good for her and the government.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,519

    The chains!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,642
    edited September 5
    The good news, which accords with my experience (related on here) of good, upstanding Cons members supporting Rishi, is that not every Cons member is batshit crazy. Quite a lot of them not, if fact.

    Does give some degree of hope for the future.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,062
    Thank you to everyone who voted for me in this campaign.

    I’ve said throughout that the Conservatives are one family.

    It’s right we now unite behind the new PM, Liz Truss, as she steers the country through difficult times.


    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1566763533093814272
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,280
    Yup, though not clear yet what she has actually smashed.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,533
    AlistairM said:


    The chains!

    She might as well wear handcuffs and brandish a whip

    Should have plenty in common with Sturgeon tho, so no lack of small talk
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,932
    AlistairM said:


    The chains!

    She should walk on stage to the guitar solo from Fleetwood Mac's The Chain.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,508
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    At this early point I would make Badenoch or Patel or Braverman favourite to be next Tory leader, assuming Truss still leads the party into the next election and fails to win it. One of them likely facing Tugendhat in the final 2

    The Party Membership clearly want Badenoch. The only winning bet today is Badenoch as LOTO.
    She needs to get something substantial and she needs to run it well with some new thinking. At the moment she is a series of interesting soundbites.

    Edit, education would be good for her and the government.
    Education seems a natural fit. Actually a very difficult job, hard to appear like you are winning in it?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,222
    edited September 5
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    For comparison, Boris Johnson won 66.4% of the vote in 2019, David Cameron 67.6% in 2005 and Iain Duncan Smith 60.7% in 2001.

    The number of similarities this election result has to IDS's stint is frankly worrying...
    The "Quiet Man is turning up the volume" is still the gold standard of awful Tory leadership speeches that I use for measurement and reference, so Truss still has someway to go on this. Duncan-Smith is the executive, premium gold-standard ; Premium Bond, or Basildon Bond.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    eek said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Lewis still doesn’t get that there’s not enough supply. He can scream at the government to do something all he likes, but demand has to fall or there will be rationing and blackouts.
    No one yet is talking about how we can reduce (across Europe) demand enough to match the new supply...

    And until we do that prices will continually leap up in price....
    Yep! All the countries affected by the supply shock need to work together, to maximise supply and minimise demand over the winter.

    Simply throwing billions of public money at freezing bills, does nothing to reduce demand. The package of measure needs to include deals with large consumers of energy, a public information campaign about reducing domestic energy use, and some price signals to everyone else, while not letting small businesses and those of limited means suffer from market failure.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,233
    So our third female PM. All Tories, of course. When will Labour even give us the option of a female leader? Even the Lib Dems had a rather unsuccesful go.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,990

    AlistairM said:


    The chains!

    She should walk on stage to the guitar solo from Fleetwood Mac's The Chain.
    Or Under Your Thumb.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,118

    On another point: it's a sign of Starmer's political stupidity that on a day when the Conservatives choose a new leader, on a date known for a month or more, he is at a school in *North London*.

    He really does give the impression that he'd be PM of the middle-class Londoners, not the country.

    Schools are facing 2 big issues: teacher recruitment and energy costs. Showing he understands that is pretty shrewd in my view.

    Anyway, my drink is coming so I will leave you all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,912
    edited September 5

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    For comparison, Boris Johnson won 66.4% of the vote in 2019, David Cameron 67.6% in 2005 and Iain Duncan Smith 60.7% in 2001.

    The number of similarities this election result has to IDS's stint is frankly worrying...
    The "Quiet Man is turning up the volume" is still the gold-standard I refer to of awful Tory leadership speeches, so Truss still has someway to go on this. Duncan-Smith is the executive, premium gold-standard ; Premium Bond, or Basildon Bond.
    To be fair to IDS he never lost a general election, made gains in every local election he was leader and the Tories averaged about 32-33% before he was ousted in polls. He was not a great leader but if Truss did as well as IDS did even that would be somewhat of a recovery from what Survation was suggesting she would lead the Tories to today
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859

    AlistairM said:


    The chains!

    She should walk on stage to the guitar solo from Fleetwood Mac's The Chain.
    That would leave lots of people disappointed, who were expecting to watch the Grand Prix.
This discussion has been closed.