Congratulations to Liz. She has had the expectations bar set helpfully low by both her predecessor and her detractors; hopefully she clears it comfortably (for all our sakes).
Starmer: “there can be no justification for not freezing energy prices and imposing a windfall tax on producers”.
Other than it will break the market mechanism and lead to rationing, and disincentivise investment in boosting supply.
Bore off you dimwitted twit. We are in the midst of a once in a generation energy crisis and now have a PM who spent years working in the energy sector. Let’s see what she does.
Congratulations to Liz. She has had the expectations bar set helpfully low by both her predecessor and her detractors; hopefully she clears it comfortably (for all our sakes).
Congratulations to Liz. She has had the expectations bar set helpfully low by both her predecessor and her detractors; hopefully she clears it comfortably (for all our sakes).
Given everything I've heard about Liz my only expectation is that she will undershoot the bar while starring into the oncoming headlamps...
Presumably today we get a very big jump in Starmer in the next PM betting simply because until now it was odds on the "next PM" would be Truss or Sunak.
Shaun Lintern @ShaunLintern · 30s If Liz Truss follows through on things she has said on the NHS then we should see action on drs pensions, rebuilding @TeamQEH and other hospitals, more funding for social care and somehow sorting GP access.
Billions and billions of spending just there.
+ billions on energy bills + billions on social care
Boris and Sunak both at 12 great value. Given that they each represent a significant faction among MP's and members.
I'd lay both except that laying at 12 for a market that won't pay out for years is distinctly unappealing.
They're the David Milliband of the Tory Party now.
Well. They need to stick around first of course. But if it goes tits up they'll need to be quick about it. If it's before the next election it's one of them I think.
On another point: it's a sign of Starmer's political stupidity that on a day when the Conservatives choose a new leader, on a date known for a month or more, he is at a school in *North London*.
He really does give the impression that he'd be PM of the middle-class Londoners, not the country.
Lewis still doesn’t get that there’s not enough supply. He can scream at the government to do something all he likes, but demand has to fall or there will be rationing and blackouts.
No one yet is talking about how we can reduce (across Europe) demand enough to match the new supply...
And until we do that prices will continually leap up in price....
What time does the buyer's remorse start in Tory WhatsApp groups?
Having thought about this 57% is really bad for Truss.
First choice of less than 1-in-6 MPs but deriving her authority from an overwhelming membership mandate was her story.
Now it's unpopular with MPs, barely prefered by the membership.
So glad I held off betting on Truss percentage, I was this close to lumping on the 60-69.99 bands this morning.
I wonder if late deciders went Sunak?
My guess is that Brady delivered this to Truss (probably by accident to be fair) by sending out ballots so soon after start of the race because of a fear about a postal strike.
If no one could have voted until say the 4th week of this it may have looked very different.
Shaun Lintern @ShaunLintern · 30s If Liz Truss follows through on things she has said on the NHS then we should see action on drs pensions, rebuilding @TeamQEH and other hospitals, more funding for social care and somehow sorting GP access.
Billions and billions of spending just there.
+ billions on energy bills + billions on social care
We must stop this damaging threat to fund the NHS! Mason has already been breathlessly comndemning the freeze the wholesale price of energy alleged plan as it will have to be paid for. The horror.
At this early point I would make Badenoch or Patel or Braverman favourite to be next Tory leader, assuming Truss still leads the party into the next election and fails to win it. One of them likely facing Tugendhat in the final 2
@David_Cameron Many congratulations to new PM @trussliz . At this time of challenge & global uncertainty, I wish the new government well. I never forget the support I had from all former Conservative leaders when I won the ballot in 2005 & I hope all Conservatives will unite behind the new PM
Come on spinners. Its not 'lowest winning margin' its 'triumphant endorsement from a party given two amazing candidates to choose from '
I thought Brady's "outstanding candidates" was hilarious. The quality of British politicians has never been lower in living memory.
In one of the biographies I read, it was part of John Majors speech too, speaking at the announcement of his successor “with such outstanding candidates, this was an election the Conservative Party couldn’t lose.”
“Yes, because you were not in it.” An MP shouted from the front row.
Are the Lib Dems the big winners here? Scotland/South of England.
South maybe yes Scotland nah
Ah, I just remembered they don't have my favourite ever politician leading them anymore.
Tbf a recovery could cost the Cons a seat or two in Scotland to the SNP but they are a million miles from retaking Berwickshire or anywhere in Aberdeenshire. 2 to 3 GE/Holyrood haul for that
@Keir_Starmer · 30m I'd like to congratulate our next Prime Minister Liz Truss as she prepares for office.
But after 12 years of the Tories all we have to show for it is low wages, high prices, and a Tory cost of living crisis.
Only Labour can deliver the fresh start our country needs.
@EdwardJDavey Under Liz Truss, we're set to see more of the same crisis and chaos as under Boris Johnson. From the cost of living emergency to the NHS crisis, the Conservatives have shown they don’t care, and have no plan.
It's time to scrap the energy price hike then call a General Election.
@NicolaSturgeon Congratulations to Liz Truss. Our political differences are deep, but I will seek to build a good working relationship with her as I did with last 3 PMs. She must now freeze energy bills for people & businesses, deliver more cash support, and increase funding for public services
The low number for Truss also blows up her cunning IndyRef scheme.
Why should Scots meet a 60% threshold, if she only got 47%...
The obvious response to the 60% threshold was there therefore wasn't a mandate for leaving the EU then. How to upset both leavers and remainers simultaneously with a policy announcement.
@Keir_Starmer · 30m I'd like to congratulate our next Prime Minister Liz Truss as she prepares for office.
But after 12 years of the Tories all we have to show for it is low wages, high prices, and a Tory cost of living crisis.
Only Labour can deliver the fresh start our country needs.
@EdwardJDavey Under Liz Truss, we're set to see more of the same crisis and chaos as under Boris Johnson. From the cost of living emergency to the NHS crisis, the Conservatives have shown they don’t care, and have no plan.
It's time to scrap the energy price hike then call a General Election.
@NicolaSturgeon Congratulations to Liz Truss. Our political differences are deep, but I will seek to build a good working relationship with her as I did with last 3 PMs. She must now freeze energy bills for people & businesses, deliver more cash support, and increase funding for public services
Sturgeon isnt daft. She knows what will happen later this week. Davey, yep, not bad, over the target. Starmer - is it PMQs? Ill use my PMQs line
The low number for Truss also blows up her cunning IndyRef scheme.
Why should Scots meet a 60% threshold, if she only got 47%...
The 60% threshold is support for indyref2 to even get a vote
How remarkable, you have gleefully dumped the doctrine of parliamentary supremacy in favour of anyone who can fiddle an opinion poll. Your party is not fit to hold the title of 'Conservative'.
@David_Cameron Many congratulations to new PM @trussliz . At this time of challenge & global uncertainty, I wish the new government well. I never forget the support I had from all former Conservative leaders when I won the ballot in 2005 & I hope all Conservatives will unite behind the new PM
Jumping the gun somewhat. The Queen might as well just call for Starmer now.
@David_Cameron Many congratulations to new PM @trussliz . At this time of challenge & global uncertainty, I wish the new government well. I never forget the support I had from all former Conservative leaders when I won the ballot in 2005 & I hope all Conservatives will unite behind the new PM
Jumping the gun somewhat. The Queen might as well just call for Starmer now.
Huw Edwards has already teed up the 'they doubted Margaret in 75 too' narrative
The low number for Truss also blows up her cunning IndyRef scheme.
Why should Scots meet a 60% threshold, if she only got 47%...
The 60% threshold is support for indyref2 to even get a vote
How remarkable, you have gleefully dumped the doctrine of parliamentary supremacy in favour of anyone who can fiddle an opinion poll. Your party is not fit to hold the title of 'Conservative'.
Sturgeon is on PB confirmed. She just tweeted that.
At this early point I would make Badenoch or Patel or Braverman favourite to be next Tory leader, assuming Truss still leads the party into the next election and fails to win it. One of them likely facing Tugendhat in the final 2
I think that these odds might be better value when you see what Cabinet role, if any, these candidates get tomorrow. Those who don't get posts will find it very, very difficult to remain in the news for several years. Look what happened to Hunt this time.
The low number for Truss also blows up her cunning IndyRef scheme.
Why should Scots meet a 60% threshold, if she only got 47%...
The 60% threshold is support for indyref2 to even get a vote
How remarkable, you have gleefully dumped the doctrine of parliamentary supremacy in favour of anyone who can fiddle an opinion poll. Your party is not fit to hold the title of 'Conservative'.
Not my position, Truss', however still her decision and that of Westminster and she has made clear she will not allow indyref2 without at least 60%+ wanting one for a year consistently and will put that in law
At this early point I would make Badenoch or Patel or Braverman favourite to be next Tory leader, assuming Truss still leads the party into the next election and fails to win it. One of them likely facing Tugendhat in the final 2
I think that these odds might be better value when you see what Cabinet role, if any, these candidates get tomorrow. Those who don't get posts will find it very, very difficult to remain in the news for several years. Look what happened to Hunt this time.
Braverman set to be Home Secretary would be a good bet to be Tory Leader of the Opposition if Truss loses
For comparison, Boris Johnson won 66.4% of the vote in 2019, David Cameron 67.6% in 2005 and Iain Duncan Smith 60.7% in 2001.
The number of similarities this election result has to IDS's stint is frankly worrying...
However we must remember of the three previous head to heads
Clarke - EUphile in a broadly eurosceptic or wary electorate Davis - fucking idiot who used big jugs to campaign Hunt - remainer in an age of Get Brexit Done
Sunak was just another option without the nonsense baggage as above
At this early point I would make Badenoch or Patel or Braverman favourite to be next Tory leader, assuming Truss still leads the party into the next election and fails to win it. One of them likely facing Tugendhat in the final 2
The Party Membership clearly want Badenoch. The only winning bet today is Badenoch as LOTO.
At this early point I would make Badenoch or Patel or Braverman favourite to be next Tory leader, assuming Truss still leads the party into the next election and fails to win it. One of them likely facing Tugendhat in the final 2
I think that these odds might be better value when you see what Cabinet role, if any, these candidates get tomorrow. Those who don't get posts will find it very, very difficult to remain in the news for several years. Look what happened to Hunt this time.
If Truss is smart (haha) she'll reach out.
She doesn't have Boris's mandate amongst either the MPs or the members, and she should look to build bridges.
If she doesn't then she'll have a whispering campaign going against her almost immediately, and the next 12 months will be very difficult for her.
At this early point I would make Badenoch or Patel or Braverman favourite to be next Tory leader, assuming Truss still leads the party into the next election and fails to win it. One of them likely facing Tugendhat in the final 2
The Party Membership clearly want Badenoch. The only winning bet today is Badenoch as LOTO.
In a member's vote Truss would have lost to both Badenoch or PM. The most important rounds of voting were on subsequent days when the MPs knocked both of them out.
At this early point I would make Badenoch or Patel or Braverman favourite to be next Tory leader, assuming Truss still leads the party into the next election and fails to win it. One of them likely facing Tugendhat in the final 2
The Party Membership clearly want Badenoch. The only winning bet today is Badenoch as LOTO.
She needs to get something substantial and she needs to run it well with some new thinking. At the moment she is a series of interesting soundbites.
Edit, education would be good for her and the government.
The good news, which accords with my experience (related on here) of good, upstanding Cons members supporting Rishi, is that not every Cons member is batshit crazy. Quite a lot of them not, if fact.
At this early point I would make Badenoch or Patel or Braverman favourite to be next Tory leader, assuming Truss still leads the party into the next election and fails to win it. One of them likely facing Tugendhat in the final 2
The Party Membership clearly want Badenoch. The only winning bet today is Badenoch as LOTO.
She needs to get something substantial and she needs to run it well with some new thinking. At the moment she is a series of interesting soundbites.
Edit, education would be good for her and the government.
Education seems a natural fit. Actually a very difficult job, hard to appear like you are winning in it?
For comparison, Boris Johnson won 66.4% of the vote in 2019, David Cameron 67.6% in 2005 and Iain Duncan Smith 60.7% in 2001.
The number of similarities this election result has to IDS's stint is frankly worrying...
The "Quiet Man is turning up the volume" is still the gold standard of awful Tory leadership speeches that I use for measurement and reference, so Truss still has someway to go on this. Duncan-Smith is the executive, premium gold-standard ; Premium Bond, or Basildon Bond.
Lewis still doesn’t get that there’s not enough supply. He can scream at the government to do something all he likes, but demand has to fall or there will be rationing and blackouts.
No one yet is talking about how we can reduce (across Europe) demand enough to match the new supply...
And until we do that prices will continually leap up in price....
Yep! All the countries affected by the supply shock need to work together, to maximise supply and minimise demand over the winter.
Simply throwing billions of public money at freezing bills, does nothing to reduce demand. The package of measure needs to include deals with large consumers of energy, a public information campaign about reducing domestic energy use, and some price signals to everyone else, while not letting small businesses and those of limited means suffer from market failure.
So our third female PM. All Tories, of course. When will Labour even give us the option of a female leader? Even the Lib Dems had a rather unsuccesful go.
On another point: it's a sign of Starmer's political stupidity that on a day when the Conservatives choose a new leader, on a date known for a month or more, he is at a school in *North London*.
He really does give the impression that he'd be PM of the middle-class Londoners, not the country.
Schools are facing 2 big issues: teacher recruitment and energy costs. Showing he understands that is pretty shrewd in my view.
Anyway, my drink is coming so I will leave you all.
For comparison, Boris Johnson won 66.4% of the vote in 2019, David Cameron 67.6% in 2005 and Iain Duncan Smith 60.7% in 2001.
The number of similarities this election result has to IDS's stint is frankly worrying...
The "Quiet Man is turning up the volume" is still the gold-standard I refer to of awful Tory leadership speeches, so Truss still has someway to go on this. Duncan-Smith is the executive, premium gold-standard ; Premium Bond, or Basildon Bond.
To be fair to IDS he never lost a general election, made gains in every local election he was leader and the Tories averaged about 32-33% before he was ousted in polls. He was not a great leader but if Truss did as well as IDS did even that would be somewhat of a recovery from what Survation was suggesting she would lead the Tories to today
Comments
She's only 48 or so, so she has at least 30 years in the top job.
Nah; second, like Sunak.
Congratulations to Liz. She has had the expectations bar set helpfully low by both her predecessor and her detractors; hopefully she clears it comfortably (for all our sakes).
Other than it will break the market mechanism and lead to rationing, and disincentivise investment in boosting supply.
Bore off you dimwitted twit. We are in the midst of a once in a generation energy crisis and now have a PM who spent years working in the energy sector. Let’s see what she does.
Will it go up, or down?
Given that they each represent a significant faction among MP's and members.
Why should Scots meet a 60% threshold, if she only got 47%...
They're the David Milliband of the Tory Party now.
Scotland nah
The pound is trading at around the $1.15 level and benchmark 10-year bond yields are steady
Latest: http://bloom.bg/3AT2nfH https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1566759040897748992/photo/1
Shaun Lintern
@ShaunLintern
·
30s
If Liz Truss follows through on things she has said on the NHS then we should see action on drs pensions, rebuilding
@TeamQEH
and other hospitals, more funding for social care and somehow sorting GP access.
Billions and billions of spending just there.
+ billions on energy bills
+ billions on social care
First choice of less than 1-in-6 MPs but deriving her authority from an overwhelming membership mandate was her story.
Now it's unpopular with MPs, barely prefered by the membership.
So glad I held off betting on Truss percentage, I was this close to lumping on the 60-69.99 bands this morning.
I wonder if late deciders went Sunak?
They need to stick around first of course.
But if it goes tits up they'll need to be quick about it.
If it's before the next election it's one of them I think.
He really does give the impression that he'd be PM of the middle-class Londoners, not the country.
Betting Post
F1: Backed Perez each way at 14 (with boost) to win in Monza.
The Red Bull is a beast in a straight line.
And until we do that prices will continually leap up in price....
If no one could have voted until say the 4th week of this it may have looked very different.
Mason has already been breathlessly comndemning the freeze the wholesale price of energy alleged plan as it will have to be paid for. The horror.
Many congratulations to new PM
@trussliz
. At this time of challenge & global uncertainty, I wish the new government well. I never forget the support I had from all former Conservative leaders when I won the ballot in 2005 & I hope all Conservatives will unite behind the new PM
“Yes, because you were not in it.” An MP shouted from the front row.
I am praying for Liz Truss as she takes on the great responsibilities of leadership at a time of such significant challenges.
May God guide her, and all who serve in our political life, towards His hope for our nation, and particular care for those who are vulnerable
*as the unwitting commentator, etc. I hasten to add.
·
30m
I'd like to congratulate our next Prime Minister Liz Truss as she prepares for office.
But after 12 years of the Tories all we have to show for it is low wages, high prices, and a Tory cost of living crisis.
Only Labour can deliver the fresh start our country needs.
@EdwardJDavey
Under Liz Truss, we're set to see more of the same crisis and chaos as under Boris Johnson. From the cost of living emergency to the NHS crisis, the Conservatives have shown they don’t care, and have no plan.
It's time to scrap the energy price hike then call a General Election.
@NicolaSturgeon
Congratulations to Liz Truss. Our political differences are deep, but I will seek to build a good working relationship with her as I did with last 3 PMs.
She must now freeze energy bills for people & businesses, deliver more cash support, and increase funding for public services
Bookies have been v. fair on this one, although I wait to see (with interest) how heavily Hills will now limit my account.
Davey, yep, not bad, over the target.
Starmer - is it PMQs? Ill use my PMQs line
The defeated this time are facing #ThickLizzy. There will be no shortage of opportunities to regretfully point out her misfortunes to a willing press.
Clarke - EUphile in a broadly eurosceptic or wary electorate
Davis - fucking idiot who used big jugs to campaign
Hunt - remainer in an age of Get Brexit Done
Sunak was just another option without the nonsense baggage as above
The Truss obviously carrying on the one rule for bosses and another for everyone else vibe.
Says he’s pretty sure he’ll be out of a job tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/ShehabKhan/status/1566763999315857410
Them, and us.
She doesn't have Boris's mandate amongst either the MPs or the members, and she should look to build bridges.
If she doesn't then she'll have a whispering campaign going against her almost immediately, and the next 12 months will be very difficult for her.
Let's see what her first moves are. Application to join the Euro, perhaps?
Edit, education would be good for her and the government.
The chains!
Does give some degree of hope for the future.
I’ve said throughout that the Conservatives are one family.
It’s right we now unite behind the new PM, Liz Truss, as she steers the country through difficult times.
https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1566763533093814272
Should have plenty in common with Sturgeon tho, so no lack of small talk
John Sheridan has been manager of Oldham Athletic under six Prime Ministers.
Simply throwing billions of public money at freezing bills, does nothing to reduce demand. The package of measure needs to include deals with large consumers of energy, a public information campaign about reducing domestic energy use, and some price signals to everyone else, while not letting small businesses and those of limited means suffer from market failure.
Anyway, my drink is coming so I will leave you all.