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Trump back as favourite to win WH2014 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 21 in General
imageTrump back as favourite to win WH2014 – politicalbetting.com

After the raid on his Florida home and all the other developments relating to ‘Trump he is now back as favourite to win the Presidency back at WH2014.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,792
    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    2014?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,759
    Time for Biden to suggest Trump visit Zaporizhzhia to cut a deal with Putin.

    Toxic matter meets toxic antimatter - neutralises both?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    Quite. As I say even I am going to think he's a pussy wiv da nukelar stuff if nothing comes of this

    Bad is easy (turn off water to cooling ponds) apocalyptic much harder, apparently
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,156
    LAY
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    Isn’t it a bit risky causing a nuclear disaster which could quickly effect your supposed allies like Belarus just to the north and the Putin arse licker Orban to the west .
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited August 18
    We could send Margaret Ferrier with a geiger counter to monitor things. Seems a fair community service sentence
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,792
    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    Isn’t it a bit risky causing a nuclear disaster which could quickly effect your supposed allies like Belarus just to the north and the Putin arse licker Orban to the west .
    That’s why he won’t cause a total disaster, yet, just do something freaky. In my war game
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,140
    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    If I was Putin I woudl want the west to forget about ukraine - hence do very little of interest - a bit of war in the East of Ukraine etc - After all the west (after great consternation at the time) forgot about the Taleban takeover in a matter of weeks , so much so that people were surprised it was only a year ago the other day on the anniversary.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,344
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,969
    Another ammunition depot hit inside Russia.

    https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1560322642888081411
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,482
    As the reality filters out about Trump's relationship with Russia vis a vis national secrets just resting in his safe, and the Weisselberg news he has no chance... surely?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,792

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    If I was Putin I woudl want the west to forget about ukraine - hence do very little of interest - a bit of war in the East of Ukraine etc - After all the west (after great consternation at the time) forgot about the Taleban takeover in a matter of weeks , so much so that people were surprised it was only a year ago the other day on the anniversary.
    No, he wants the sanctions lifted. The status quo is not good for him, medium term
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,759

    Another ammunition depot hit inside Russia.

    https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1560322642888081411

    Which will leave Russia with an awkward question if they do do something stupid:

    Why, if they were mad enough to do such a thing, would the Ukrainians hit one of their own nuclear power plants instead of a Russian one?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,060

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Latest YouGov

    Truss 68% Sunak 31% on conservative members already voted

    38% haven't voted yet though just 26% are undecided

    There are only about 10% sitting on the fence
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,140
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    If I was Putin I woudl want the west to forget about ukraine - hence do very little of interest - a bit of war in the East of Ukraine etc - After all the west (after great consternation at the time) forgot about the Taleban takeover in a matter of weeks , so much so that people were surprised it was only a year ago the other day on the anniversary.
    No, he wants the sanctions lifted. The status quo is not good for him, medium term
    sanctions will get lifted he is does very little either out of boredom, money incentive to break them or the (real) need of the west for Russia's gas especially
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,059
    If he runs again Trump would be favourite to win the nomination and Presidency. Unless the Democrats pick a younger centrist like Buttigieg
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,218

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    If I was Putin I woudl want the west to forget about ukraine - hence do very little of interest - a bit of war in the East of Ukraine etc - After all the west (after great consternation at the time) forgot about the Taleban takeover in a matter of weeks , so much so that people were surprised it was only a year ago the other day on the anniversary.
    No, he wants the sanctions lifted. The status quo is not good for him, medium term
    sanctions will get lifted he is does very little either out of boredom, money incentive to break them or the (real) need of the west for Russia's gas especially
    I would not be surprised if there was some easing of sanctions, dressed up as a win for the west, in exchange for extra gas being provided. Especially if it is a harsh winter.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,792

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    If I was Putin I woudl want the west to forget about ukraine - hence do very little of interest - a bit of war in the East of Ukraine etc - After all the west (after great consternation at the time) forgot about the Taleban takeover in a matter of weeks , so much so that people were surprised it was only a year ago the other day on the anniversary.
    No, he wants the sanctions lifted. The status quo is not good for him, medium term
    sanctions will get lifted he is does very little either out of boredom, money incentive to break them or the (real) need of the west for Russia's gas especially
    But this is a way to get them lifted very quickly

    Create a Fukushima style calamity. Kill a few hundred people and contaminate 100 sq km of Ukraine

    That would be enough, I reckon, to horrify the world, terrify europe and create pressure on Ukraine to accept a bad peace, as the west agrees to lift sanctions

    It’s not pleasant but I could easily see that “working” for Putin
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,059

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    If I was Putin I woudl want the west to forget about ukraine - hence do very little of interest - a bit of war in the East of Ukraine etc - After all the west (after great consternation at the time) forgot about the Taleban takeover in a matter of weeks , so much so that people were surprised it was only a year ago the other day on the anniversary.
    Given IS have been blowing up Taliban backed clerics and Mosques, ironically the Taliban are now the moderates in Afghanistan
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,156

    As the reality filters out about Trump's relationship with Russia vis a vis national secrets just resting in his safe, and the Weisselberg news he has no chance... surely?

    There are so many reasons why he won't be president again and that's not counting those we don't yet know about.

    Talking my book, yes, in spades, but a year from now people will be kicking themselves not laying this. They'll be shaking their heads and going, "how could we have ever thought that was going to happen?"

    And I'll say to them, "because you didn't see the wood, just the trees".

    Well I won't - since that would be naff - but this will be the reason.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,759
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    If I was Putin I woudl want the west to forget about ukraine - hence do very little of interest - a bit of war in the East of Ukraine etc - After all the west (after great consternation at the time) forgot about the Taleban takeover in a matter of weeks , so much so that people were surprised it was only a year ago the other day on the anniversary.
    Given IS have been blowing up Taliban backed clerics and Mosques, ironically the Taliban are now the moderates in Afghanistan
    Which says quite a lot about how badly mismanaged things were during the 20 year occupation.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,573
    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    We cannot analyse the situation at all, in the complete absence of the Russian (propaganda) perspective, which has been censored from the internet, and will not be found in any of the media we consume. Zerohedge is the only website that I know of covering the conflict from a pro-Russian (more anti-American really) side, and their reporting isn't really analysis. Our own media is shamefully on message - most of the 'bad' stories for Ukraine come (admirably) from the Ukrainian media; they're certainly not covered in the UK media.

    I find it very hard to believe that Ukraine could create a 'false flag' attack in a facility it doesn't even control. However, I also don't see the point of Russia blowing up a nuclear power station in territory it occupies.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    If I was Putin I woudl want the west to forget about ukraine - hence do very little of interest - a bit of war in the East of Ukraine etc - After all the west (after great consternation at the time) forgot about the Taleban takeover in a matter of weeks , so much so that people were surprised it was only a year ago the other day on the anniversary.
    No, he wants the sanctions lifted. The status quo is not good for him, medium term
    sanctions will get lifted he is does very little either out of boredom, money incentive to break them or the (real) need of the west for Russia's gas especially
    But this is a way to get them lifted very quickly

    Create a Fukushima style calamity. Kill a few hundred people and contaminate 100 sq km of Ukraine

    That would be enough, I reckon, to horrify the world, terrify europe and create pressure on Ukraine to accept a bad peace, as the west agrees to lift sanctions

    It’s not pleasant but I could easily see that “working” for Putin
    The problems with that scenario are
    1. The peace would be unstable. Russia will likely also be unstable after this no matter how it plays out.
    2. Ukrainian society would not accept it so as a minimum partisan warfare would continue on a massive scale. I think that the Ukrainians would continue fighting with the official army even if threated with reduced western arms support and that would actually swing public opinion in the West behind them.
    3. The Poles and others would not accept it and would funnel arms in to support Ukrainian resistance.
    4. Russian military collapse may well occur in quite a short timeframe, Ukrainians could go through the motions of a coerced negotiation until military defeat for Russia.
    5. Western public opinion might swing to more belligerence if Russia threatens or causes a nuclear incident and at a minimum will insist on effective sanctions continuing.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,575
    kinabalu said:

    As the reality filters out about Trump's relationship with Russia vis a vis national secrets just resting in his safe, and the Weisselberg news he has no chance... surely?

    There are so many reasons why he won't be president again and that's not counting those we don't yet know about.

    Talking my book, yes, in spades, but a year from now people will be kicking themselves not laying this. They'll be shaking their heads and going, "how could we have ever thought that was going to happen?"

    And I'll say to them, "because you didn't see the wood, just the trees".

    Well I won't - since that would be naff - but this will be the reason.
    I agree he probably won't be. The problem is - look at the probabilities - it probably won't be anyone else either. And as there are some actual reasons why he might be voted in for 2024 (heaven forbid) I think he is placed rightly as the front runner in a poor field.

    Tragic.

  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    If I was Putin I woudl want the west to forget about ukraine - hence do very little of interest - a bit of war in the East of Ukraine etc - After all the west (after great consternation at the time) forgot about the Taleban takeover in a matter of weeks , so much so that people were surprised it was only a year ago the other day on the anniversary.
    No, he wants the sanctions lifted. The status quo is not good for him, medium term
    sanctions will get lifted he is does very little either out of boredom, money incentive to break them or the (real) need of the west for Russia's gas especially
    But this is a way to get them lifted very quickly

    Create a Fukushima style calamity. Kill a few hundred people and contaminate 100 sq km of Ukraine

    That would be enough, I reckon, to horrify the world, terrify europe and create pressure on Ukraine to accept a bad peace, as the west agrees to lift sanctions

    It’s not pleasant but I could easily see that “working” for Putin
    Alternatively it gets the rest of the world's back up and they decide that Putin must lose.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,344

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Latest YouGov

    Truss 68% Sunak 31% on conservative members already voted

    38% haven't voted yet though just 26% are undecided

    There are only about 10% sitting on the fence
    So if we assume the decided not-yet-voters split the same way as those who have already voted, Rishi will need all of the undecideds to vote for him, although of course if that is to happen, then whatever caused it means Rishi will likely have got many more of the not-yet-voted as well.

    So it is not quite all over but, well, some people are on the pitch...
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,218

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    If I was Putin I woudl want the west to forget about ukraine - hence do very little of interest - a bit of war in the East of Ukraine etc - After all the west (after great consternation at the time) forgot about the Taleban takeover in a matter of weeks , so much so that people were surprised it was only a year ago the other day on the anniversary.
    No, he wants the sanctions lifted. The status quo is not good for him, medium term
    sanctions will get lifted he is does very little either out of boredom, money incentive to break them or the (real) need of the west for Russia's gas especially
    But this is a way to get them lifted very quickly

    Create a Fukushima style calamity. Kill a few hundred people and contaminate 100 sq km of Ukraine

    That would be enough, I reckon, to horrify the world, terrify europe and create pressure on Ukraine to accept a bad peace, as the west agrees to lift sanctions

    It’s not pleasant but I could easily see that “working” for Putin
    Alternatively it gets the rest of the world's back up and they decide that Putin must lose.
    The 'rest of the world' will have to answer the following question: if Putin gets what he wants by performing such a heinous act, what will he do to get what he wants next time?

    And there will be a next time.
    Given next time is likely to be in Europe would the rest of the world be that bothered ?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,446
    On topic - calling the compound frequently infested by the Sage > Suspect of Mar-a-Lardo a "home" is a stretch & then some.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,792

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    If I was Putin I woudl want the west to forget about ukraine - hence do very little of interest - a bit of war in the East of Ukraine etc - After all the west (after great consternation at the time) forgot about the Taleban takeover in a matter of weeks , so much so that people were surprised it was only a year ago the other day on the anniversary.
    No, he wants the sanctions lifted. The status quo is not good for him, medium term
    sanctions will get lifted he is does very little either out of boredom, money incentive to break them or the (real) need of the west for Russia's gas especially
    But this is a way to get them lifted very quickly

    Create a Fukushima style calamity. Kill a few hundred people and contaminate 100 sq km of Ukraine

    That would be enough, I reckon, to horrify the world, terrify europe and create pressure on Ukraine to accept a bad peace, as the west agrees to lift sanctions

    It’s not pleasant but I could easily see that “working” for Putin
    Alternatively it gets the rest of the world's back up and they decide that Putin must lose.
    Yes. It’s a gamble for Putin. Or maybe a gambit

    However we have learned to our cost that he is prepared to make huge gambles. In a bad way

    I reckon there’s a 50% chance he will do something bad at the nuclear plant soon, and a 10% chance it will be really bad - Chernobyl style. And a 2% chance it is so bad it will kick off nuclear war and we will all die

    7/2 bar the rest
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,969
    edited August 18
    It seems the BBC’s new University Challenge host does not have the approval of the alphabet people:

    Rajan isn’t who I’d been told. This is worse. A man who has applauded the “bravery” of TERFs is taking over a show with one of the biggest queer/trans representations on TV. It sends a clear signal and undoes so much work done to make all students feel welcome and safe.

    https://twitter.com/lillcrawf/status/1560194819477147649
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,417
    edited August 18
    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    It's also another tool to try to encourage a ceasefire if that's the route he wants, point out the 'risks' around power plants.

    Edit: I see you made that point later.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,253

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Latest YouGov

    Truss 68% Sunak 31% on conservative members already voted

    38% haven't voted yet though just 26% are undecided

    There are only about 10% sitting on the fence
    So if we assume the decided not-yet-voters split the same way as those who have already voted, Rishi will need all of the undecideds to vote for him, although of course if that is to happen, then whatever caused it means Rishi will likely have got many more of the not-yet-voted as well.

    So it is not quite all over but, well, some people are on the pitch...
    I wonder if Liz will withdraw the whip when she takes power and terminate Rishi's career as an MP. Boris got nothing but praise from Tory Leavers when he did it to the Remoaners, so surely the same would happen if done to Boris's assassin. There would also be a Trump/Liz Cheney vibe about it, which might also be appreciated.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,412
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    If I was Putin I woudl want the west to forget about ukraine - hence do very little of interest - a bit of war in the East of Ukraine etc - After all the west (after great consternation at the time) forgot about the Taleban takeover in a matter of weeks , so much so that people were surprised it was only a year ago the other day on the anniversary.
    No, he wants the sanctions lifted. The status quo is not good for him, medium term
    sanctions will get lifted he is does very little either out of boredom, money incentive to break them or the (real) need of the west for Russia's gas especially
    But this is a way to get them lifted very quickly

    Create a Fukushima style calamity. Kill a few hundred people and contaminate 100 sq km of Ukraine

    That would be enough, I reckon, to horrify the world, terrify europe and create pressure on Ukraine to accept a bad peace, as the west agrees to lift sanctions

    It’s not pleasant but I could easily see that “working” for Putin
    Alternatively it gets the rest of the world's back up and they decide that Putin must lose.
    Yes. It’s a gamble for Putin. Or maybe a gambit

    However we have learned to our cost that he is prepared to make huge gambles. In a bad way

    I reckon there’s a 50% chance he will do something bad at the nuclear plant soon, and a 10% chance it will be really bad - Chernobyl style. And a 2% chance it is so bad it will kick off nuclear war and we will all die

    7/2 bar the rest
    What are the odds aliens stop it with a lab engineered virus?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,573

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    If I was Putin I woudl want the west to forget about ukraine - hence do very little of interest - a bit of war in the East of Ukraine etc - After all the west (after great consternation at the time) forgot about the Taleban takeover in a matter of weeks , so much so that people were surprised it was only a year ago the other day on the anniversary.
    No, he wants the sanctions lifted. The status quo is not good for him, medium term
    sanctions will get lifted he is does very little either out of boredom, money incentive to break them or the (real) need of the west for Russia's gas especially
    But this is a way to get them lifted very quickly

    Create a Fukushima style calamity. Kill a few hundred people and contaminate 100 sq km of Ukraine

    That would be enough, I reckon, to horrify the world, terrify europe and create pressure on Ukraine to accept a bad peace, as the west agrees to lift sanctions

    It’s not pleasant but I could easily see that “working” for Putin
    The problems with that scenario are
    1. The peace would be unstable. Russia will likely also be unstable after this no matter how it plays out.
    2. Ukrainian society would not accept it so as a minimum partisan warfare would continue on a massive scale. I think that the Ukrainians would continue fighting with the official army even if threated with reduced western arms support and that would actually swing public opinion in the West behind them.
    3. The Poles and others would not accept it and would funnel arms in to support Ukrainian resistance.
    4. Russian military collapse may well occur in quite a short timeframe, Ukrainians could go through the motions of a coerced negotiation until military defeat for Russia.
    5. Western public opinion might swing to more belligerence if Russia threatens or causes a nuclear incident and at a minimum will insist on effective sanctions continuing.
    6. It's total horseshit. If Russia did as Leon suggests, it would be a serious escalation, and call for an escalated response. Which is why they're alleging that Ukraine wants to false flag it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,417
    edited August 18

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    We cannot analyse the situation at all, in the complete absence of the Russian (propaganda) perspective, which has been censored from the internet, and will not be found in any of the media we consume. Zerohedge is the only website that I know of covering the conflict from a pro-Russian (more anti-American really) side, and their reporting isn't really analysis. Our own media is shamefully on message - most of the 'bad' stories for Ukraine come (admirably) from the Ukrainian media; they're certainly not covered in the UK media.

    I find it very hard to believe that Ukraine could create a 'false flag' attack in a facility it doesn't even control. However, I also don't see the point of Russia blowing up a nuclear power station in territory it occupies.
    The point about not really having input from the other side is true, yet the exact same logic about 'not seeing the point' was used by various media and other commentators to say there would not be an invasion in the first place, since what would be the point when it would only be counter productive.

    So whilst we cannot believe every story coming out about evils of Russian plans, they have demonstrably taken irrational actions before, threatened far worse actions over much more minor slights (eg nuclear weapon threats), so such a course has to be reacted to as if it is likely, just in case. If they were concerned about losing ground in general, even if not near that plant, that would provide a pretext to remind others that Russia could take action.

    No one has an interest in nuclear disaster, but they'd also claim to have no interest in tens of thousands dying or shelling cities to bits, yet they clearly do and are prepared to take massive risks around these plants already, so it isn't out of left field to worry.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,218

    It seems the BBC’s new University Challenge host does not have the approval of the alphabet people:

    Rajan isn’t who I’d been told. This is worse. A man who has applauded the “bravery” of TERFs is taking over a show with one of the biggest queer/trans representations on TV. It sends a clear signal and undoes so much work done to make all students feel welcome and safe.

    https://twitter.com/lillcrawf/status/1560194819477147649

    Doesn’t Amol Rajan being a ‘person of colour’ not weigh in his favour with these nitwits ?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,851

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    We cannot analyse the situation at all, in the complete absence of the Russian (propaganda) perspective, which has been censored from the internet, and will not be found in any of the media we consume. Zerohedge is the only website that I know of covering the conflict from a pro-Russian (more anti-American really) side, and their reporting isn't really analysis. Our own media is shamefully on message - most of the 'bad' stories for Ukraine come (admirably) from the Ukrainian media; they're certainly not covered in the UK media.

    I find it very hard to believe that Ukraine could create a 'false flag' attack in a facility it doesn't even control. However, I also don't see the point of Russia blowing up a nuclear power station in territory it occupies.
    I'm sceptical too - false flag allegations can be bluffs or double bluffs or deterrents, setting up finger-pointing or claiming they've prevented the other side from doing whatever.

    Objectively, the issue seems to be that the Russians have based artillery at the plant, confident that the Ukrainians won't blow it up, which is just as unfair as basing a firing position in a hospital or a school and then comploaining if it's attacked. The Ukrainians have a legitimate interest in making this an ongoing issue. But I can't see that either side actually have an interest in a nuclear disaster.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,759
    Fishing said:

    On topic - depressing news but probably not that meaningful this far out. Nevertheless, this might help as it raised a smile from me:

    Facebook post by the Flat Earth Society:

    "The Flat Earth Society has members ALL AROUND THE GLOBE" ...

    Makes a change from their members being all around the bend.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,573
    ydoethur said:

    Another ammunition depot hit inside Russia.

    https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1560322642888081411

    Which will leave Russia with an awkward question if they do do something stupid:

    Why, if they were mad enough to do such a thing, would the Ukrainians hit one of their own nuclear power plants instead of a Russian one?
    Because if they hit a Russian one it would be considered an atrocity toward Russia and damage Ukraine's cause with its allies. If their own one gets hit, it's a Russian atrocity on Ukraine, and calls for greater Western action against Russia.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,037
    Taz said:

    It seems the BBC’s new University Challenge host does not have the approval of the alphabet people:

    Rajan isn’t who I’d been told. This is worse. A man who has applauded the “bravery” of TERFs is taking over a show with one of the biggest queer/trans representations on TV. It sends a clear signal and undoes so much work done to make all students feel welcome and safe.

    https://twitter.com/lillcrawf/status/1560194819477147649

    Doesn’t Amol Rajan being a ‘person of colour’ not weigh in his favour with these nitwits ?
    Welcome and safe, unless you disagree with the Twitter people in which case you don't deserve a livelihood.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,417

    It seems the BBC’s new University Challenge host does not have the approval of the alphabet people:

    Rajan isn’t who I’d been told. This is worse. A man who has applauded the “bravery” of TERFs is taking over a show with one of the biggest queer/trans representations on TV. It sends a clear signal and undoes so much work done to make all students feel welcome and safe.

    https://twitter.com/lillcrawf/status/1560194819477147649

    It's just crazy to think that students could be welcome and safe on a tv quiz show regardless of the views of the host.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,344

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Latest YouGov

    Truss 68% Sunak 31% on conservative members already voted

    38% haven't voted yet though just 26% are undecided

    There are only about 10% sitting on the fence
    So if we assume the decided not-yet-voters split the same way as those who have already voted, Rishi will need all of the undecideds to vote for him, although of course if that is to happen, then whatever caused it means Rishi will likely have got many more of the not-yet-voted as well.

    So it is not quite all over but, well, some people are on the pitch...
    I wonder if Liz will withdraw the whip when she takes power and terminate Rishi's career as an MP. Boris got nothing but praise from Tory Leavers when he did it to the Remoaners, so surely the same would happen if done to Boris's assassin. There would also be a Trump/Liz Cheney vibe about it, which might also be appreciated.
    Given most MPs voted for Rishi, depriving him of the whip would be a courageous move. Even keeping him out of the Cabinet would be brave.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,759

    ydoethur said:

    Another ammunition depot hit inside Russia.

    https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1560322642888081411

    Which will leave Russia with an awkward question if they do do something stupid:

    Why, if they were mad enough to do such a thing, would the Ukrainians hit one of their own nuclear power plants instead of a Russian one?
    Because if they hit a Russian one it would be considered an atrocity toward Russia and damage Ukraine's cause with its allies. If their own one gets hit, it's a Russian atrocity on Ukraine, and calls for greater Western action against Russia.
    If they hit their own nuclear plant, it would not be an atrocity by Russia. It would be an epochal act of self harm compared to the Paraguayan War mentioned by Sunil last night. They would have nothing to gain, certainly not compared to the vast amounts they would lose.

    What’s annoying is that the Russians genuinely seem to think we’ll believe their transparent lies. I can see why they got on with Dominic Cummings.

  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,811
    edited August 18

    As the reality filters out about Trump's relationship with Russia vis a vis national secrets just resting in his safe, and the Weisselberg news he has no chance... surely?

    A video coming out showing Trump pissing on the Declaration of Independence wouldn't affect most Trump supporters vote
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,219
    edited August 18
    How do you go about laying Trump already. I'm not into this betting lark but at anything longer than even it must be easy money. As on old git myself, I wouldn't fancy Trump's chances of living until 2024. Anyone any idea about his genetics?

    Edited to reflect the right century.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,520

    Another ammunition depot hit inside Russia.

    https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1560322642888081411

    Seems to be 60 miles away from the front line if it's in Timonovo as claimed. That's a fair distance. Explosion in Kerch reported this evening too.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,573
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    We cannot analyse the situation at all, in the complete absence of the Russian (propaganda) perspective, which has been censored from the internet, and will not be found in any of the media we consume. Zerohedge is the only website that I know of covering the conflict from a pro-Russian (more anti-American really) side, and their reporting isn't really analysis. Our own media is shamefully on message - most of the 'bad' stories for Ukraine come (admirably) from the Ukrainian media; they're certainly not covered in the UK media.

    I find it very hard to believe that Ukraine could create a 'false flag' attack in a facility it doesn't even control. However, I also don't see the point of Russia blowing up a nuclear power station in territory it occupies.
    The point about not really having input from the other side is true, yet the exact same logic about 'not seeing the point' was used by various media and other commentators to say there would not be an invasion in the first place, since what would be the point when it would only be counter productive.

    So whilst we cannot believe every story coming out about evils of Russian plans, they have demonstrably taken irrational actions before, threatened far worse actions over much more minor slights (eg nuclear weapon threats), so such a course has to be reacted to as if it is likely, just in case. If they were concerned about losing ground in general, even if not near that plant, that would provide a pretext to remind others that Russia could take action.

    No one has an interest in nuclear disaster, but they'd also claim to have no interest in tens of thousands dying or shelling cities to bits, yet they clearly do and are prepared to take massive risks around these plants already, so it isn't out of left field to worry.
    But if they managed to pin the blame for it on the Ukrainians, as they seem to be trying to do, there would be no scary optics about Russian ruthlessness.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,417
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    If I was Putin I woudl want the west to forget about ukraine - hence do very little of interest - a bit of war in the East of Ukraine etc - After all the west (after great consternation at the time) forgot about the Taleban takeover in a matter of weeks , so much so that people were surprised it was only a year ago the other day on the anniversary.
    Given IS have been blowing up Taliban backed clerics and Mosques, ironically the Taliban are now the moderates in Afghanistan
    I recall around the time they overran bits of Iraq that IS were described as having been considered too extreme by Al Qaeda (whilst also being much slicker in their comms compared to boring old Zawahiri 'blathering on' in his messages)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,446
    With respect to Liz Cheney's landslide defeat in Wyoming primary - by larger margin than polling had suggested - some thoughts:

    > Essentially two kinds of Republican/conservative voters in WY pissed off by Cheney's dissing (to put it mildly) of Trump:
    1. True Trumpist believers and similar dyed-in-the-wool Putinist allies and/or chumps
    2. GOP & conservative independents less wedded to Trump personally & ideologically BUT who recognize & respect clout of him AND his defenders, suckups, fellow-travelers, etc., etc. within the Republican Party, esp IF GOP can regain control of even half of Congress

    Obvious how Cheney ran afoul of first group. What messed her up with the second, was fact that her break with Trump got her tossed out of US House GOP leadership and otherwise destroyed her influence with Republican politicos, activists, funders and (most) reliably Republican voters.

    PLUS fact that Cheney lacked a true grass-roots base within Wyoming, having risen fast & somewhat furiously (in view of some GOP rivals) politically by drafting onto her big-shot (local AND DC) Big Daddy Cheney to boost her into the Republican governmental establishment.

    Once the basis of her Beltway GOP establishment credentials were shredded by her own post-January 2021 patriotism, only thing she had to fall back on was nostalgia, old family retainers & the like, and Democrats.

    Liz Cheney was an obvious goner months before the 2022 Wyoming primary. What drove her rejection by the voters to epic proportions, was her disconnect from what most folks in the Equality State consider their vital, critical and greatly endangered (in particular by Democrats) economic interests, namely coal, gas and oil.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,344
    The government has reintroduced the cap on the number of medical and dental students. And since so many candidates last year were given places deferred to this year, getting into medical school will be even harder than normal.

    Both are ironic. So many of those clamouring to get into medical school will drop out after they've qualified, and the government capping numbers is the same one trying to fill shortages of doctors.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,792

    It seems the BBC’s new University Challenge host does not have the approval of the alphabet people:

    Rajan isn’t who I’d been told. This is worse. A man who has applauded the “bravery” of TERFs is taking over a show with one of the biggest queer/trans representations on TV. It sends a clear signal and undoes so much work done to make all students feel welcome and safe.

    https://twitter.com/lillcrawf/status/1560194819477147649

    Twitter photo in their profile


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,417
    edited August 18
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Another ammunition depot hit inside Russia.

    https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1560322642888081411

    Which will leave Russia with an awkward question if they do do something stupid:

    Why, if they were mad enough to do such a thing, would the Ukrainians hit one of their own nuclear power plants instead of a Russian one?
    Because if they hit a Russian one it would be considered an atrocity toward Russia and damage Ukraine's cause with its allies. If their own one gets hit, it's a Russian atrocity on Ukraine, and calls for greater Western action against Russia.
    If they hit their own nuclear plant, it would not be an atrocity by Russia. It would be an epochal act of self harm compared to the Paraguayan War mentioned by Sunil last night. They would have nothing to gain, certainly not compared to the vast amounts they would lose.

    What’s annoying is that the Russians genuinely seem to think we’ll believe their transparent lies. I can see why they got on with Dominic Cummings.

    Russia presumably doesn't care if the West believes its lies. They lied about invading, and in multiple often contradictory reasons for the invasion. They only care that those outside the West are provided something they can 'both sides' argue to stay right out of it (fairly successfully it appears), and hopefully that some in the West will argue their case (intentionally or otherwise), even though really motivated by other factors.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,811

    It seems the BBC’s new University Challenge host does not have the approval of the alphabet people:

    Rajan isn’t who I’d been told. This is worse. A man who has applauded the “bravery” of TERFs is taking over a show with one of the biggest queer/trans representations on TV. It sends a clear signal and undoes so much work done to make all students feel welcome and safe.

    https://twitter.com/lillcrawf/status/1560194819477147649

    That'll make the Tories love him, until they read his Wikipedia page:

    ""The Guardian wrote, "Amol Rajan, (...) is a declared republican who once branded the royal family as 'absurd' and the media as a 'propaganda outlet' for the monarchy."[33] In 2021, he publicly apologised for comments made in a 2012 article he wrote for The Independent, in which he described Prince Philip as a "racist buffoon" and Prince Charles as "scientifically illiterate", and for an open letter he sent to Prince William and his wife Catherine while the two were expecting their first child, in which he described their public role as a "total fraud", the Queen's Diamond Jubilee as a "celebration of mediocrity", and the royal family as a clan "unusually full of fools"."
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,520
    ydoethur said:

    Another ammunition depot hit inside Russia.

    https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1560322642888081411

    Which will leave Russia with an awkward question if they do do something stupid:

    Why, if they were mad enough to do such a thing, would the Ukrainians hit one of their own nuclear power plants instead of a Russian one?
    The nuclear power plant near Kursk, very similar design to Chernobyl, is less than 40 miles from the Ukrainian border.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,417
    edited August 18
    CD13 said:

    How do you go about laying Trump already. I'm not into this betting lark but at anything longer than even it must be easy money. As on old git myself, I wouldn't fancy Trump's chances of living until 2024. Anyone any idea about his genetics?

    Edited to reflect the right century.

    IDK, he seems to have boundless energy. His dad made it to 93, and he's teetotal even if he subsists on fast food.

    Wikipedia says his dad's full name was Frederick Christ Trump. Why Trump doesn't advertise himself as the Son of Christ I don't know.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,218
    kle4 said:

    It seems the BBC’s new University Challenge host does not have the approval of the alphabet people:

    Rajan isn’t who I’d been told. This is worse. A man who has applauded the “bravery” of TERFs is taking over a show with one of the biggest queer/trans representations on TV. It sends a clear signal and undoes so much work done to make all students feel welcome and safe.

    https://twitter.com/lillcrawf/status/1560194819477147649

    It's just crazy to think that students could be welcome and safe on a tv quiz show regardless of the views of the host.
    Begs the question if they are on the show with Rajan, who seems a warm, amiable and genial chap, why would they not feel welcome and safe ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,218
    Leon said:




    It seems the BBC’s new University Challenge host does not have the approval of the alphabet people:

    Rajan isn’t who I’d been told. This is worse. A man who has applauded the “bravery” of TERFs is taking over a show with one of the biggest queer/trans representations on TV. It sends a clear signal and undoes so much work done to make all students feel welcome and safe.

    https://twitter.com/lillcrawf/status/1560194819477147649

    Twitter photo in their profile


    Pronouns in her bio, presumably too.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,344
    CD13 said:

    How do you go about laying Trump already. I'm not into this betting lark but at anything longer than even it must be easy money. As on old git myself, I wouldn't fancy Trump's chances of living until 2024. Anyone any idea about his genetics?

    Edited to reflect the right century.

    The Donald is 76 years old. Mum (who was Scottish btw) died at 88 and dad died at 93. Smart genes.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,322
    Leon said:




    It seems the BBC’s new University Challenge host does not have the approval of the alphabet people:

    Rajan isn’t who I’d been told. This is worse. A man who has applauded the “bravery” of TERFs is taking over a show with one of the biggest queer/trans representations on TV. It sends a clear signal and undoes so much work done to make all students feel welcome and safe.

    https://twitter.com/lillcrawf/status/1560194819477147649

    Twitter photo in their profile


    “There are more female, non-binary, and queer students on the programme than ever before. I am so proud to have been involved in casting this cohort,”

    I wonder what “casting” means in this context. I know the choice of which teams make it to TV is not wholly merit-based, but are they picking and choosing people for each team too?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,417
    BTW, ydoethur was right, it was not easy to make it through The Satanic Verses.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,985

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Latest YouGov

    Truss 68% Sunak 31% on conservative members already voted

    38% haven't voted yet though just 26% are undecided

    There are only about 10% sitting on the fence
    So if we assume the decided not-yet-voters split the same way as those who have already voted, Rishi will need all of the undecideds to vote for him, although of course if that is to happen, then whatever caused it means Rishi will likely have got many more of the not-yet-voted as well.

    So it is not quite all over but, well, some people are on the pitch...
    I wonder if Liz will withdraw the whip when she takes power and terminate Rishi's career as an MP. Boris got nothing but praise from Tory Leavers when he did it to the Remoaners, so surely the same would happen if done to Boris's assassin. There would also be a Trump/Liz Cheney vibe about it, which might also be appreciated.
    Given most MPs voted for Rishi, depriving him of the whip would be a courageous move. Even keeping him out of the Cabinet would be brave.
    "Most"? 38.3% is hardly "most". And some of those have publicly switched sides.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,344
    CatMan said:

    It seems the BBC’s new University Challenge host does not have the approval of the alphabet people:

    Rajan isn’t who I’d been told. This is worse. A man who has applauded the “bravery” of TERFs is taking over a show with one of the biggest queer/trans representations on TV. It sends a clear signal and undoes so much work done to make all students feel welcome and safe.

    https://twitter.com/lillcrawf/status/1560194819477147649

    That'll make the Tories love him, until they read his Wikipedia page:

    ""The Guardian wrote, "Amol Rajan, (...) is a declared republican who once branded the royal family as 'absurd' and the media as a 'propaganda outlet' for the monarchy."[33] In 2021, he publicly apologised for comments made in a 2012 article he wrote for The Independent, in which he described Prince Philip as a "racist buffoon" and Prince Charles as "scientifically illiterate", and for an open letter he sent to Prince William and his wife Catherine while the two were expecting their first child, in which he described their public role as a "total fraud", the Queen's Diamond Jubilee as a "celebration of mediocrity", and the royal family as a clan "unusually full of fools"."
    That's the standard Tory line now Liz Truss is running the shop, or will be in a fortnight.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,219
    Mr JohnL,

    Thanks, it looks like Old Father Time isn't such a friend after all.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,417

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    If I was Putin I woudl want the west to forget about ukraine - hence do very little of interest - a bit of war in the East of Ukraine etc - After all the west (after great consternation at the time) forgot about the Taleban takeover in a matter of weeks , so much so that people were surprised it was only a year ago the other day on the anniversary.
    No, he wants the sanctions lifted. The status quo is not good for him, medium term
    sanctions will get lifted he is does very little either out of boredom, money incentive to break them or the (real) need of the west for Russia's gas especially
    But this is a way to get them lifted very quickly

    Create a Fukushima style calamity. Kill a few hundred people and contaminate 100 sq km of Ukraine

    That would be enough, I reckon, to horrify the world, terrify europe and create pressure on Ukraine to accept a bad peace, as the west agrees to lift sanctions

    It’s not pleasant but I could easily see that “working” for Putin
    Alternatively it gets the rest of the world's back up and they decide that Putin must lose.
    The 'rest of the world' will have to answer the following question: if Putin gets what he wants by performing such a heinous act, what will he do to get what he wants next time?

    And there will be a next time.
    Particularly since the question has been asked and answered before, and we're looking at that answer in 2022.

    Even if that made sense then, the nature of diplomacy with horrible regimes being what it is, the actions this year show the answer should be very different now, even with additional cost.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,344

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Latest YouGov

    Truss 68% Sunak 31% on conservative members already voted

    38% haven't voted yet though just 26% are undecided

    There are only about 10% sitting on the fence
    So if we assume the decided not-yet-voters split the same way as those who have already voted, Rishi will need all of the undecideds to vote for him, although of course if that is to happen, then whatever caused it means Rishi will likely have got many more of the not-yet-voted as well.

    So it is not quite all over but, well, some people are on the pitch...
    I wonder if Liz will withdraw the whip when she takes power and terminate Rishi's career as an MP. Boris got nothing but praise from Tory Leavers when he did it to the Remoaners, so surely the same would happen if done to Boris's assassin. There would also be a Trump/Liz Cheney vibe about it, which might also be appreciated.
    Given most MPs voted for Rishi, depriving him of the whip would be a courageous move. Even keeping him out of the Cabinet would be brave.
    "Most"? 38.3% is hardly "most". And some of those have publicly switched sides.
    Good point. I was forgetting about Penny Mordaunt in the final round. Nonetheless, the point stands since Rishi got more MPs' votes than Truss in every round.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kle4 said:

    BTW, ydoethur was right, it was not easy to make it through The Satanic Verses.

    You did that?

    The wannabe assassin managed just 2 pages
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,171
    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    Isn’t it a bit risky causing a nuclear disaster which could quickly effect your supposed allies like Belarus just to the north and the Putin arse licker Orban to the west .
    It will also seal the feat of climate change by putting the whole world off building new nuclear plants, perhaps for years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,417
    CatMan said:

    It seems the BBC’s new University Challenge host does not have the approval of the alphabet people:

    Rajan isn’t who I’d been told. This is worse. A man who has applauded the “bravery” of TERFs is taking over a show with one of the biggest queer/trans representations on TV. It sends a clear signal and undoes so much work done to make all students feel welcome and safe.

    https://twitter.com/lillcrawf/status/1560194819477147649

    That'll make the Tories love him, until they read his Wikipedia page:

    ""The Guardian wrote, "Amol Rajan, (...) is a declared republican who once branded the royal family as 'absurd' and the media as a 'propaganda outlet' for the monarchy."[33] In 2021, he publicly apologised for comments made in a 2012 article he wrote for The Independent, in which he described Prince Philip as a "racist buffoon" and Prince Charles as "scientifically illiterate", and for an open letter he sent to Prince William and his wife Catherine while the two were expecting their first child, in which he described their public role as a "total fraud", the Queen's Diamond Jubilee as a "celebration of mediocrity", and the royal family as a clan "unusually full of fools"."
    Most of that seems pretty weaksauce, each to their own, but putting out an 'open letter' on such a point would make him look like a giant tool.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,417
    edited August 18
    IshmaelZ said:

    kle4 said:

    BTW, ydoethur was right, it was not easy to make it through The Satanic Verses.

    You did that?

    The wannabe assassin managed just 2 pages
    Well technically I have 40 pages to go, but that'll been done shortly. The writing is terrible.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,550
    kle4 said:

    BTW, ydoethur was right, it was not easy to make it through The Satanic Verses.

    As some wag observed at the time Rushdie deserved a fatwa for the turgid mess that was that book.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,759

    ydoethur said:

    Another ammunition depot hit inside Russia.

    https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1560322642888081411

    Which will leave Russia with an awkward question if they do do something stupid:

    Why, if they were mad enough to do such a thing, would the Ukrainians hit one of their own nuclear power plants instead of a Russian one?
    The nuclear power plant near Kursk, very similar design to Chernobyl, is less than 40 miles from the Ukrainian border.
    The Russians claim to have intercepted Ukrainian drones aimed at Kursk the same time Belgorod was hit.

    The power plant’s a bit further east but it should be within their range if they wanted to cause a catastrophe.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    Evening all.

    A wonderful day for #FBPE Eurogoons. Here's one telling us how we are all going to suffer because of the new charges for travel under the ETIAS visa waiver scheme.

    Jim Brown 3.5 % #FBPE #FBSI #FBR🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇪🇺
    @JimJasbro

    Aug 17
    If you're not a club member..you have to pay more to enter...I knew this would happen #BrexitDisaster #brexittotaldisasternotmovingontilltheyhave

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1559552006284611584

    It's £5.92 for the whole of the EU for 3 years. 16p a month. The country will starve.

    :smile:
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,218

    kle4 said:

    BTW, ydoethur was right, it was not easy to make it through The Satanic Verses.

    As some wag observed at the time Rushdie deserved a fatwa for the turgid mess that was that book.
    Was that Rebekah Vardy ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,613
    IshmaelZ said:

    kle4 said:

    BTW, ydoethur was right, it was not easy to make it through The Satanic Verses.

    You did that?

    The wannabe assassin managed just 2 pages
    I got about half-way :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,613
    CD13 said:

    Mr JohnL,

    Thanks, it looks like Old Father Time isn't such a friend after all.

    "Time is the fire in which we burn!"
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,713

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    Isn’t it a bit risky causing a nuclear disaster which could quickly effect your supposed allies like Belarus just to the north and the Putin arse licker Orban to the west .
    It will also seal the feat of climate change by putting the whole world off building new nuclear plants, perhaps for years.
    That's not going to put Putin off though is it?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,253
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:




    It seems the BBC’s new University Challenge host does not have the approval of the alphabet people:

    Rajan isn’t who I’d been told. This is worse. A man who has applauded the “bravery” of TERFs is taking over a show with one of the biggest queer/trans representations on TV. It sends a clear signal and undoes so much work done to make all students feel welcome and safe.

    https://twitter.com/lillcrawf/status/1560194819477147649

    Twitter photo in their profile


    “There are more female, non-binary, and queer students on the programme than ever before. I am so proud to have been involved in casting this cohort,”

    I wonder what “casting” means in this context. I know the choice of which teams make it to TV is not wholly merit-based, but are they picking and choosing people for each team too?
    Further down the thread there's a bloke on the UCL team who looks about seventy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,759
    edited August 18
    IshmaelZ said:

    kle4 said:

    BTW, ydoethur was right, it was not easy to make it through The Satanic Verses.

    You did that?

    The wannabe assassin managed just 2 pages
    At risk of being tasteless, I’m not bloody surprised he tried to kill him if he’d struggled that far.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,573

    With respect to Liz Cheney's landslide defeat in Wyoming primary - by larger margin than polling had suggested - some thoughts:

    > Essentially two kinds of Republican/conservative voters in WY pissed off by Cheney's dissing (to put it mildly) of Trump:
    1. True Trumpist believers and similar dyed-in-the-wool Putinist allies and/or chumps
    2. GOP & conservative independents less wedded to Trump personally & ideologically BUT who recognize & respect clout of him AND his defenders, suckups, fellow-travelers, etc., etc. within the Republican Party, esp IF GOP can regain control of even half of Congress

    Obvious how Cheney ran afoul of first group. What messed her up with the second, was fact that her break with Trump got her tossed out of US House GOP leadership and otherwise destroyed her influence with Republican politicos, activists, funders and (most) reliably Republican voters.

    PLUS fact that Cheney lacked a true grass-roots base within Wyoming, having risen fast & somewhat furiously (in view of some GOP rivals) politically by drafting onto her big-shot (local AND DC) Big Daddy Cheney to boost her into the Republican governmental establishment.

    Once the basis of her Beltway GOP establishment credentials were shredded by her own post-January 2021 patriotism, only thing she had to fall back on was nostalgia, old family retainers & the like, and Democrats.

    Liz Cheney was an obvious goner months before the 2022 Wyoming primary. What drove her rejection by the voters to epic proportions, was her disconnect from what most folks in the Equality State consider their vital, critical and greatly endangered (in particular by Democrats) economic interests, namely coal, gas and oil.

    In short, like the Tories during the Great Reform Act 'riding the tiger' of the middle classes, 'neocon' Republicans like Liz Cheney's Dad have ridden the tiger of the average right wing American voter. Severed from that link now that they average right wing American voter has discovered Trumpism, they have nothing. No means of support.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438
    On topic: Trump definitely has a clear path to the Presidency - he runs for the Republican nomination, wins it, and then goes on to beat Sleepy Joe, or whoever the Democratic nominee is.

    He currently polls about 50% among registered Republicans for the Presidential nomination. He has similar favourable/unfavourable numbers than Joe Biden. (And the Dems, could of course, pick someone even less electable, like Kamala Harris.)

    On the other hand, Trump is a diminished figure, with mounting legal and financial risks. He is also exceptionally unpopular with Democrats.

    My gut - for what it's worth - is that if the Democrats were to choose a sensible and moderate Presidential nominee (and ideally one below the age of 60), they would defeat Trump handily in 2024. The problem is that word 'if'. Biden probably wants to run again. And he's not going to be any less senile. And Harris is next in line if Biden does not stand (albeit she was bloody awful last time in the Primaries, so it's far from certain she'd win the nomination).

    By contrast, I think Pence or DeSantis or Hayley or Cotton or whoever, would probably win the Presidency handily. I think the US is ready for a Republican again. But I don't think they're ready for another Trump term.

    My next question is this: what if Trump's "picks" do particularly badly in November? Walker in Georgia, Oz in Pennsylvania, Vance in Ohio, Masters in Arizona - they are all candidates where Trump has thrown his weight. What if they don't do well? (And what if Trump opponents like Brian Kemp do do well?)

    From a betting perspective, I think Trump is about right: he's a one in five shot. DeSantis is probably a little rich for me, given he has a difficult Gubernatorial race ahead of him. (Albeit there is a clear path for him too. So any selling of DeSantis would be in small size.)

    Biden is probably a little cheap. If he decides to run again (and he really shouldn't), then he's going to win the nomination, and then be a 50/50 shot (or better) for the Presidency.

    And Gavin Newsom's price is insane. He's not running. And even if he ran, he wouldn't win the nomination. Heck, I'm not even sure he'd carry his home state.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,713

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.04 Liz Truss 96%
    21 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Latest YouGov

    Truss 68% Sunak 31% on conservative members already voted

    38% haven't voted yet though just 26% are undecided

    There are only about 10% sitting on the fence
    So if we assume the decided not-yet-voters split the same way as those who have already voted, Rishi will need all of the undecideds to vote for him, although of course if that is to happen, then whatever caused it means Rishi will likely have got many more of the not-yet-voted as well.

    So it is not quite all over but, well, some people are on the pitch...
    I wonder if Liz will withdraw the whip when she takes power and terminate Rishi's career as an MP. Boris got nothing but praise from Tory Leavers when he did it to the Remoaners, so surely the same would happen if done to Boris's assassin. There would also be a Trump/Liz Cheney vibe about it, which might also be appreciated.
    Given most MPs voted for Rishi, depriving him of the whip would be a courageous move. Even keeping him out of the Cabinet would be brave.
    "Most"? 38.3% is hardly "most". And some of those have publicly switched sides.
    It is though. Most means 'greatest in amount, quantity, or degree'.

    Most does not (necessarily) = majority.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,811

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:




    It seems the BBC’s new University Challenge host does not have the approval of the alphabet people:

    Rajan isn’t who I’d been told. This is worse. A man who has applauded the “bravery” of TERFs is taking over a show with one of the biggest queer/trans representations on TV. It sends a clear signal and undoes so much work done to make all students feel welcome and safe.

    https://twitter.com/lillcrawf/status/1560194819477147649

    Twitter photo in their profile


    “There are more female, non-binary, and queer students on the programme than ever before. I am so proud to have been involved in casting this cohort,”

    I wonder what “casting” means in this context. I know the choice of which teams make it to TV is not wholly merit-based, but are they picking and choosing people for each team too?
    Further down the thread there's a bloke on the UCL team who looks about seventy.
    If only the original host was available, then we could avoid all this controversy

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysG96dUtGh4
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,987
    Evening all :)

    Returning from my evening walk, I see the cost of a litre of unleaded at my local Tesco's is back down to 166.9p.

    A significant fall (25p) from the peak value in June but still well above where it was at the beginning of the year, let alone this time last year.

    Looking at oil prices, WTI is around $90 per barrel and Brent Crude at $96 per barrel which takes us back to just before Putin's invasion of Ukraine but well in front of this time last year when a barrel of Brent Crude went for just under $70 so effectively a one third increase in 12 months so it's not surprising it's hurting.

    Yes, it's off its highs of March and June when Brent Crude traded above $120 per barrel.

    What are we seeing? Has additional supply come on stream from Saudi and others to balance the apparent (though not I suspect actual) absence of Russian oil or are we seeing a reversion to a "new normality" as the conflict in the Ukraine seems to have reached a stalemate with neither side winning nor losing at this point.

    Is there a possibility we are also seeing a fall off in demand - I'm reminded in 2008 oil prices (and petrol prices) surged in the spring before collapsing spectacularly with the loss of Lehman Brothers and the worldwide slowdown. We saw another demand-led collapse in the spring of 2020 but for very different reasons.

    The question is whether OPEC and others will try to cut supply to keep prices up - as we've seen Saudi isn't doing badly out of the new higher oil prices and neither are firms like Saudi Aramco. If there's a thought prices could be softening I wonder if we'll see a slight contraction in supply.

    The economic and political impact of higher oil prices are well known - the oil price spike of 1973-74 dominated the 1970s and signalled the end of the post-war Butskellite concensus and the dawn of Thatcherism. As to what will happen if $100 per barrel oil is here to stay, I'm not sure. The energy crisis, like housing, is multi-faceted and nuanced and defies simple or simplistic solutions.

    The provision of energy is one thing - the provision and cost of fuel is another - not unrelated but the connections go right through the economy and society.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    IshmaelZ said:

    kle4 said:

    BTW, ydoethur was right, it was not easy to make it through The Satanic Verses.

    You did that?

    The wannabe assassin managed just 2 pages
    Yep - quite a difficult book. I graduated from University in Bradford a couple of years earlier.

    I find Rushdie easier to listen to eg on Radio. My favourite of his is Haroun and the Sea of Stories, which he wrote for children :blush: .
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,037
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: Trump definitely has a clear path to the Presidency - he runs for the Republican nomination, wins it, and then goes on to beat Sleepy Joe, or whoever the Democratic nominee is.

    He currently polls about 50% among registered Republicans for the Presidential nomination. He has similar favourable/unfavourable numbers than Joe Biden. (And the Dems, could of course, pick someone even less electable, like Kamala Harris.)

    On the other hand, Trump is a diminished figure, with mounting legal and financial risks. He is also exceptionally unpopular with Democrats.

    My gut - for what it's worth - is that if the Democrats were to choose a sensible and moderate Presidential nominee (and ideally one below the age of 60), they would defeat Trump handily in 2024. The problem is that word 'if'. Biden probably wants to run again. And he's not going to be any less senile. And Harris is next in line if Biden does not stand (albeit she was bloody awful last time in the Primaries, so it's far from certain she'd win the nomination).

    By contrast, I think Pence or DeSantis or Hayley or Cotton or whoever, would probably win the Presidency handily. I think the US is ready for a Republican again. But I don't think they're ready for another Trump term.

    My next question is this: what if Trump's "picks" do particularly badly in November? Walker in Georgia, Oz in Pennsylvania, Vance in Ohio, Masters in Arizona - they are all candidates where Trump has thrown his weight. What if they don't do well? (And what if Trump opponents like Brian Kemp do do well?)

    From a betting perspective, I think Trump is about right: he's a one in five shot. DeSantis is probably a little rich for me, given he has a difficult Gubernatorial race ahead of him. (Albeit there is a clear path for him too. So any selling of DeSantis would be in small size.)

    Biden is probably a little cheap. If he decides to run again (and he really shouldn't), then he's going to win the nomination, and then be a 50/50 shot (or better) for the Presidency.

    And Gavin Newsom's price is insane. He's not running. And even if he ran, he wouldn't win the nomination. Heck, I'm not even sure he'd carry his home state.

    Hm, if I were at least a 50/50 shot for the presidency, I'd struggle to accept I shouldn't do it. At least tens of millions of people would be for me against the alternative.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,156
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    As the reality filters out about Trump's relationship with Russia vis a vis national secrets just resting in his safe, and the Weisselberg news he has no chance... surely?

    There are so many reasons why he won't be president again and that's not counting those we don't yet know about.

    Talking my book, yes, in spades, but a year from now people will be kicking themselves not laying this. They'll be shaking their heads and going, "how could we have ever thought that was going to happen?"

    And I'll say to them, "because you didn't see the wood, just the trees".

    Well I won't - since that would be naff - but this will be the reason.
    I agree he probably won't be. The problem is - look at the probabilities - it probably won't be anyone else either. And as there are some actual reasons why he might be voted in for 2024 (heaven forbid) I think he is placed rightly as the front runner in a poor field.

    Tragic.

    It is tragic that he's even in the frame. But I am doing probabilities - I rate him a 10% chance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,059
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Disturbingly when I wargame this in my head, as Vlad Putin, I keep reaching the conclusion: Do Something Bad

    ie Leak at least a bit of radiation, blame it on the Ukrainians, say it was shelled. What's not to like? Don't destroy the plant and the world, but do enough - poison a town or two - to put terror into your enemies, and make Europe sue for peace

    Putin and Russia rely on the impression of power and aggression. If they back down now, and nothing happens, then it will look weak. So it was all a bluff. The West will gain resolve

    For this gambit to work best for him, he needs to do something bad at the power plant, just not something apocalyptic, yet

    If I was Putin I woudl want the west to forget about ukraine - hence do very little of interest - a bit of war in the East of Ukraine etc - After all the west (after great consternation at the time) forgot about the Taleban takeover in a matter of weeks , so much so that people were surprised it was only a year ago the other day on the anniversary.
    Given IS have been blowing up Taliban backed clerics and Mosques, ironically the Taliban are now the moderates in Afghanistan
    Which says quite a lot about how badly mismanaged things were during the 20 year occupation.
    We could have been there 1,000 years and we still wouldn't have enabled it to have a competent, liberal democratic government. Biden's strategy is now to just strike AQ or IS leaders like Zahawi and otherwise leave the Taliban to it
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438
    kle4 said:

    CD13 said:

    How do you go about laying Trump already. I'm not into this betting lark but at anything longer than even it must be easy money. As on old git myself, I wouldn't fancy Trump's chances of living until 2024. Anyone any idea about his genetics?

    Edited to reflect the right century.

    IDK, he seems to have boundless energy. His dad made it to 93, and he's teetotal even if he subsists on fast food.

    Wikipedia says his dad's full name was Frederick Christ Trump. Why Trump doesn't advertise himself as the Son of Christ I don't know.
    He is looking distinctly older, though. There's a tired, haggard look that he's acquired since leaving the White House.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    edited August 18
    Interesting map.

    (Update - beginning to wonder if it is fake)

    Who hates who?


    https://twitter.com/OCanonist/status/1559667917783834625

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,059
    edited August 18

    CatMan said:

    It seems the BBC’s new University Challenge host does not have the approval of the alphabet people:

    Rajan isn’t who I’d been told. This is worse. A man who has applauded the “bravery” of TERFs is taking over a show with one of the biggest queer/trans representations on TV. It sends a clear signal and undoes so much work done to make all students feel welcome and safe.

    https://twitter.com/lillcrawf/status/1560194819477147649

    That'll make the Tories love him, until they read his Wikipedia page:

    ""The Guardian wrote, "Amol Rajan, (...) is a declared republican who once branded the royal family as 'absurd' and the media as a 'propaganda outlet' for the monarchy."[33] In 2021, he publicly apologised for comments made in a 2012 article he wrote for The Independent, in which he described Prince Philip as a "racist buffoon" and Prince Charles as "scientifically illiterate", and for an open letter he sent to Prince William and his wife Catherine while the two were expecting their first child, in which he described their public role as a "total fraud", the Queen's Diamond Jubilee as a "celebration of mediocrity", and the royal family as a clan "unusually full of fools"."
    That's the standard Tory line now Liz Truss is running the shop, or will be in a fortnight.
    Liz now loves the royals so much she wants another royal yacht, or so she says. As on most of the other opinions she used to hold and dumped to become Tory leader
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited August 18
    The Russian side and the Ukrainian side are each accusing the other of planning a provocation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant tomorrow.

    There have been many conflicts where each side has blamed the other for doing something. There have been some in which one side has accused the other of being about to carry out a provocation. But I don't know of any other conflicts in which both sides have said the other side will carry out a provocation in a named small area the next day.

    TASS: Russian side on alleged Ukrainian plan: https://tass.com/politics/1495145

    Ukrinform: Ukrainian side on alleged Russian plan: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3553342-russian-invaders-plot-provocation-at-zaporizhzhia-npp-for-aug-19-intelligence.html

    Tomorrow is a Friday too, and not only will markets shut for the weekend but it's also a monthly options expiry day.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,759

    With respect to Liz Cheney's landslide defeat in Wyoming primary - by larger margin than polling had suggested - some thoughts:

    > Essentially two kinds of Republican/conservative voters in WY pissed off by Cheney's dissing (to put it mildly) of Trump:
    1. True Trumpist believers and similar dyed-in-the-wool Putinist allies and/or chumps
    2. GOP & conservative independents less wedded to Trump personally & ideologically BUT who recognize & respect clout of him AND his defenders, suckups, fellow-travelers, etc., etc. within the Republican Party, esp IF GOP can regain control of even half of Congress

    Obvious how Cheney ran afoul of first group. What messed her up with the second, was fact that her break with Trump got her tossed out of US House GOP leadership and otherwise destroyed her influence with Republican politicos, activists, funders and (most) reliably Republican voters.

    PLUS fact that Cheney lacked a true grass-roots base within Wyoming, having risen fast & somewhat furiously (in view of some GOP rivals) politically by drafting onto her big-shot (local AND DC) Big Daddy Cheney to boost her into the Republican governmental establishment.

    Once the basis of her Beltway GOP establishment credentials were shredded by her own post-January 2021 patriotism, only thing she had to fall back on was nostalgia, old family retainers & the like, and Democrats.

    Liz Cheney was an obvious goner months before the 2022 Wyoming primary. What drove her rejection by the voters to epic proportions, was her disconnect from what most folks in the Equality State consider their vital, critical and greatly endangered (in particular by Democrats) economic interests, namely coal, gas and oil.

    In short, like the Tories during the Great Reform Act 'riding the tiger' of the middle classes
    Eh?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,059
    CatMan said:

    It seems the BBC’s new University Challenge host does not have the approval of the alphabet people:

    Rajan isn’t who I’d been told. This is worse. A man who has applauded the “bravery” of TERFs is taking over a show with one of the biggest queer/trans representations on TV. It sends a clear signal and undoes so much work done to make all students feel welcome and safe.

    https://twitter.com/lillcrawf/status/1560194819477147649

    That'll make the Tories love him, until they read his Wikipedia page:

    ""The Guardian wrote, "Amol Rajan, (...) is a declared republican who once branded the royal family as 'absurd' and the media as a 'propaganda outlet' for the monarchy."[33] In 2021, he publicly apologised for comments made in a 2012 article he wrote for The Independent, in which he described Prince Philip as a "racist buffoon" and Prince Charles as "scientifically illiterate", and for an open letter he sent to Prince William and his wife Catherine while the two were expecting their first child, in which he described their public role as a "total fraud", the Queen's Diamond Jubilee as a "celebration of mediocrity", and the royal family as a clan "unusually full of fools"."
    Rajan is actually quite a good presenter, I wouldn't vote for him but he is a good choice to succeed Paxman at University Challenge
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,344

    The government has reintroduced the cap on the number of medical and dental students. And since so many candidates last year were given places deferred to this year, getting into medical school will be even harder than normal.

    Both are ironic. So many of those clamouring to get into medical school will drop out after they've qualified, and the government capping numbers is the same one trying to fill shortages of doctors.

    Link to BBC story on capped medical school places:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62594141
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,037
    MattW said:
    How did they poll North Korea?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,573
    ydoethur said:

    With respect to Liz Cheney's landslide defeat in Wyoming primary - by larger margin than polling had suggested - some thoughts:

    > Essentially two kinds of Republican/conservative voters in WY pissed off by Cheney's dissing (to put it mildly) of Trump:
    1. True Trumpist believers and similar dyed-in-the-wool Putinist allies and/or chumps
    2. GOP & conservative independents less wedded to Trump personally & ideologically BUT who recognize & respect clout of him AND his defenders, suckups, fellow-travelers, etc., etc. within the Republican Party, esp IF GOP can regain control of even half of Congress

    Obvious how Cheney ran afoul of first group. What messed her up with the second, was fact that her break with Trump got her tossed out of US House GOP leadership and otherwise destroyed her influence with Republican politicos, activists, funders and (most) reliably Republican voters.

    PLUS fact that Cheney lacked a true grass-roots base within Wyoming, having risen fast & somewhat furiously (in view of some GOP rivals) politically by drafting onto her big-shot (local AND DC) Big Daddy Cheney to boost her into the Republican governmental establishment.

    Once the basis of her Beltway GOP establishment credentials were shredded by her own post-January 2021 patriotism, only thing she had to fall back on was nostalgia, old family retainers & the like, and Democrats.

    Liz Cheney was an obvious goner months before the 2022 Wyoming primary. What drove her rejection by the voters to epic proportions, was her disconnect from what most folks in the Equality State consider their vital, critical and greatly endangered (in particular by Democrats) economic interests, namely coal, gas and oil.

    In short, like the Tories during the Great Reform Act 'riding the tiger' of the middle classes
    Eh?
    Did they not do that? Don't tell me the one thing I managed to retain from A level history is wrong.
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