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Trump back as favourite to win WH2014 – politicalbetting.com

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,296
    New thread.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,805

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    And so it begins: an article in the Telegraph today blames the lack of Brexit benefits experienced thus far on "the Johnson government's incompetence". Boris Johnson, the latest Brexit high priest to be blamed for Brexit not coming good. This will happen to Liz Truss eventually.
    https://twitter.com/NicholasTyrone/status/1560209392280141824

    Well May was a pragmatic remainer, Johnson a remainer who chose leave for tactical reasons, and Truss an enthusiastic remainer. Maybe what Brexit needs is a true believer, like, err Sunak?

    But for some reason leavers have decided he is the remainer not Truss.
    Coming soon to a Sunak graphic.

    It is rather funny in fairness.

    All comes down to knifing the great one and not being good enough to overcome that.
    It's not really about Leave/Remain though, is it?

    Sunak's problem (apart from knifing Poor Borwisy-Worisy) is that he's telling people that they can't have their cake and eat it, that there are tradeoffs to be made.

    Truss (who is sound on Brexit, like St Paul was sound on Christianity) is selling the same sunny optimistic unicorn world where we can have everything we want and no downside.
    Cakeism was surely core to Brexit?
    Yup, which is one way of understanding why 2016-9 was so traumatic.

    We voted for cake and eat it, dammit, and the EU ideas for future relationships were about (cake eaten + cake retained) = constant.

    That wasn't the point at all.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,093

    HYUFD said:

    Team Truss is back in the clarification game after a 2009 leaflet emerged, co-written by Liz Truss, calling for, inter alia:-

    Doctors to have a 10 per cent pay cut — Liz hates @Foxy
    Patients to be charged to see doctors
    The Royal Navy to lose two aircraft carriers
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19553769/liz-truss-charge-patients-doctor-defence-cuts/

    The actual document (rather than just the 'outrageous' 'gotchas' as presented to us by the Sunak-supporting press, would probably be quite an interesting insight into what Truss would do to get the economy through.

    I've been in favour of getting rid of one of the aircraft carriers for a long time - giving it to the EU as a shiny bauble to get the perfect cherry on top trade deal. It's actually a laibility so economically it works out as Liz indicates. Would mean the EU could sail it around with an EU flag feeling very grand.
    Not a good idea, we need the aircraft carriers to defend our overseas territories and play a full part in NATO and as a P5 UN member. Note Truss now pushing increased defence spending
    We don't even have the areoplanes for two Queen Elizabeth class carriers do we? I agree we need to defend the Falklands, and I want us to build the Navy long term, but I see those carriers as white elephants.
    We are purchasing F35s on a continuing basis. 25 so far. 42 is the plan by the end of 2023. The current talk seems to be of a fleet of around 80.

    The carriers are designed for 24-48 fixed wing aircraft, though you could surge that to 60+ with a deck park etc. Though at that point, you would be making aircraft movement slow, difficult and maybe even dangerous.
    So really we don't even have the aircraft to fill one yet. Which isn't going to menace the Argentinians particularly.

    Give it to the EU (the French) and let them spend their money.
    One of the carriers is currently deployed on an exercise with our Northern European friends, IIRC. Consider why that is?

    24 F35 (or even 12 F35) would be more powerful than the entire Argentine airforce.

    In fact, it is interesting to see the number of countries for which that is true.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,095
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    DavidL said:

    'East End Eton' celebrates record year with nearly 90% of A-level students getting A* or A grades: State school in one of London's poorest boroughs will send 85 pupils to Oxbridge this year
    Brampton Manor Academy in one of London's poorest boroughs sees 430 students achieve straight A* or As
    85 pupils secured places at Oxford or Cambridge universities - with 470 going to a Russell Group institution
    School in Newham has now sent nearly 300 students to Oxbridge in just a decade since it opened sixth form
    This year's figure for Oxbridge of 85 was a significant rise on the 55 offers received in 2021 and 51 in 2020

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11124035/East-End-Eton-Brampton-Manor-Academy-sees-nearly-90-level-students-getting-A.html

    Astonishing and transformative. Why is every school, and indeed OFSTED, not focused on learning how they achieve what they have?
    Meanwhile the son of a friend didn't get into the university he wanted - Imperial.

    He got 4 As at A level, with one A*

    Yup - AAAA*

    Meanwhile, the daughter of someone else I know got 5 A levels. All A*....

    Anyone for some redefining of grade boundaries?

    When 44% of grades are A or A* as they were last year, they have no meaning at all.

    I also think there's merit in giving people percentages rather than grades, and also a grade showing their ranking, so that people would get say 78%/A* if the 78% puts them in the top 2%, or 78%/C if they are 30% down.
    Something like that - we are heading (back) to the comedy where you can't tell the difference between the bested the average.

    Consider - if 44% of grades are A or A* and 50% are going to university....

    When I did my A levels, 3 As got you into anywhere you wanted. They were quite rare, and meant you had achieved very high marks. 4 A levels was for people with socialisation issues.

    This meant that B or even C grades could still get you into university.
    As recently as 1996, my year, the very top university offer was AAB, AAA offers were unheard-of, except for possibly a couple of very niche specialist courses.
    My offer at IC (as it then was) in 1997 was BBB. As back then were only required by Oxbridge and for medics/dentists/vets.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,095

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ONS/status/1560507188459741185

    Retail sales volumes rose slightly by 0.3% in July 2022 following a fall of 0.2% in June 2022.

    Retail remains 2.3% above its pre-pandemic level http://ow.ly/aAlL50KnA8c


    People not feeling the need to tighten their belts.

    Or simply having to pay higher prices for things...
    Or stocking up.
    Indeed, expecting things to go further up in price.

    The ONS did mention that alcohol, tobacco, clothes and household goods all fell. This would suggest to me that discretionary spending is down.
    Lol, you’ve realised the logical error in your first argument.

    To be honest, that discretionary spending isn’t falling off a cliff should be a big concern.

    Of course, the media don’t see it like that. They want the story to be “people are feeling the squeeze and spending less.” They don’t like asking “well why aren’t people saving ahead of the huge energy price rises?”
    Two reasons why people aren't saving.

    A bit of denial. Despite it being one of the defining advantages for humans, the ability to anticipate and prepare for future events can be hard to use when the anticipated change is negative. People are in denial about how bad the price increases will be.

    Secondly, there's an assumption that the government will be forced by public and media pressure to fix the problem, so that there will be no disaster to prepare for. The government have done a lot to create this feeling by emphasizing how much they have done and will do to help, and so there's a complacency. The infinite capacity of government borrowing will ride to the rescue again, and all will be well.

    I have my doubts. I think a wise thing to do this winter is to consolidate homes with wider family and friends as much as possible. Have granny come to stay early for Christmas, and don't send her home until winter is over.
    And a third reason: an awful lot of people don't have any significant capacity to save anyway.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,662
    Good morning, everyone.

    Pro-EU types had some obvious ways to compromise, most clearly just by keeping their own promise for a referendum on Lisbon. During May's time grieve got the concession he was after but shrieked it was 'too late'. Such MPs could've backed May's deal but they (primarily Labour) decided to oppose it, and voted the same way as the anti-EU MPs (holding diametrically opposing views and voting the same way is usually a sign one side is buggering things up).

    The Lisbon referendum was a great opportunity. It would've been lost by a mile and given both the UK establishment and the EU an undeniable sign that the UK electorate was discontent. The lesson drawn might've been 'no referendum ever again' or pro-EU people might have taken into account the view going forward.

    Also, I'd argue that compromise and nuance is inherently the friend of the pro-EU side of the argument. Blurred lines and give and take are aspects of the EU project. Black and white and clear boundaries play more into an anti-EU way of thinking.

    But the pro-EU side could still have won if they'd got the basics right (economy). And now they should consider the long term, not just winning a vote but trying to change the way the electorate view the EU. You can't do that by hiding from the matter or by just deriding those who hold other opinions.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,095

    Andy_JS said:

    When Trump won in 2016 everyone should have come together to work out why so many people voted for him and to try to ensure that it wouldn't happen again by dealing with the problems that must have resulted in him being elected. The fact that he's favourite again would suggest the problems haven't been properly addressed.

    More people voted for HRC...
    Entirely irrelevant, of course.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,880
    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    My Imperial offer back in the 90s was BBC. It was considered high at the time, but gave some wriggle room. I think some poor soul had AAB for Cambridge. It was hugely stressful for them. I feel sorry for kids today.

    All this talk of A-levels is both a bit over 20 years in the past or a bit under 20 years in the future (Daughter) to my personal situation - so I can look at all this with afar right now...
    The key question looking at all this from a very decent lens isn't is kid x getting this or that grade, but is the education system properly setting kids up for the future.
    It’s a good point, whether the education system is set up to actually deliver the needed skills.

    I quite like the idea of degree apprenticeships, where the employers and the universities work together to design a degree course, that’s both academically rigorous and providing the skills required for the worksplace.

    For example, it would be easy for Airbus, Rolls-Royce, BAe Systems and half a dozen F1 teams, to come up with a course for a Masters in Aeronautical Engineering.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,095

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    And so it begins: an article in the Telegraph today blames the lack of Brexit benefits experienced thus far on "the Johnson government's incompetence". Boris Johnson, the latest Brexit high priest to be blamed for Brexit not coming good. This will happen to Liz Truss eventually.
    https://twitter.com/NicholasTyrone/status/1560209392280141824

    Well May was a pragmatic remainer, Johnson a remainer who chose leave for tactical reasons, and Truss an enthusiastic remainer. Maybe what Brexit needs is a true believer, like, err Sunak?

    But for some reason leavers have decided he is the remainer not Truss.
    Coming soon to a Sunak graphic.

    It is rather funny in fairness.

    All comes down to knifing the great one and not being good enough to overcome that.
    It's not really about Leave/Remain though, is it?

    Sunak's problem (apart from knifing Poor Borwisy-Worisy) is that he's telling people that they can't have their cake and eat it, that there are tradeoffs to be made.
    ...having put up NI in his last budget, breaking a manifesto pledge...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,478
    edited August 19
    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ONS/status/1560507188459741185

    Retail sales volumes rose slightly by 0.3% in July 2022 following a fall of 0.2% in June 2022.

    Retail remains 2.3% above its pre-pandemic level http://ow.ly/aAlL50KnA8c


    People not feeling the need to tighten their belts.

    Or simply having to pay higher prices for things...
    Or stocking up.
    Indeed, expecting things to go further up in price.

    The ONS did mention that alcohol, tobacco, clothes and household goods all fell. This would suggest to me that discretionary spending is down.
    Lol, you’ve realised the logical error in your first argument.

    To be honest, that discretionary spending isn’t falling off a cliff should be a big concern.

    Of course, the media don’t see it like that. They want the story to be “people are feeling the squeeze and spending less.” They don’t like asking “well why aren’t people saving ahead of the huge energy price rises?”
    Two reasons why people aren't saving.

    A bit of denial. Despite it being one of the defining advantages for humans, the ability to anticipate and prepare for future events can be hard to use when the anticipated change is negative. People are in denial about how bad the price increases will be.

    Secondly, there's an assumption that the government will be forced by public and media pressure to fix the problem, so that there will be no disaster to prepare for. The government have done a lot to create this feeling by emphasizing how much they have done and will do to help, and so there's a complacency. The infinite capacity of government borrowing will ride to the rescue again, and all will be well.

    I have my doubts. I think a wise thing to do this winter is to consolidate homes with wider family and friends as much as possible. Have granny come to stay early for Christmas, and don't send her home until winter is over.
    And a third reason: an awful lot of people don't have any significant capacity to save anyway.
    You can break the population into three parts. There are those rich enough not to need to save to prepare for the price increases, because they will be able to ride it out from their continuing income.

    There will be those, as you say, who have no capacity to save in advance.

    And then there is the middle group, I would guess the largest, who could ease their difficulties over the winter by making adjustments now, but who don't seem to be doing so.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,358

    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    And so it begins: an article in the Telegraph today blames the lack of Brexit benefits experienced thus far on "the Johnson government's incompetence". Boris Johnson, the latest Brexit high priest to be blamed for Brexit not coming good. This will happen to Liz Truss eventually.
    https://twitter.com/NicholasTyrone/status/1560209392280141824

    When do you think you might live a day on earth without getting yourself triggered by Brexit? Six years on now. Its quite sad to think it plausible that you might never.
    But why though? That's the puzzling thing for me.

    I voted remain, pragmatically, and missed the deepness of attachment that some obviously had/have for the EU construct. I find it quite bizarre.

    I think it comes down to one of two things: a dislike (non-admitted) of the people of their own country and being part of the EU in their mind diluted that (perhaps combined with a dislike of the very concept of the nation state); and /or their own personal situation (i.e. property abroad or other financial aspect).
    There's practical aspects of leaving the EU for exporters that are... expensive, our Dutch accountants (An expense needed only because we left the EU) reckon reclaimation from Germany is impossible for British firms and we've got a row over a potential 6 figure VAT bill (Which I'm not going to go into on a public form) here.
    Trading in Euros would eliminate lots of currency risk for us too.
    So for me wanting to rejoin is purely on pragmatics & business reasons - any emotional or social attachment the likes of Soubry and Steve Bray show to a vast intra-country beaurocracy is beyond my comprehension.
    Good morning

    It is obvious we need an improved relationship with the EU but the likes of Soubry and Bray and @Scott_xP just cause so much annoyance they may not see it but their attitude only contributes to the divisions rather than helps to find a compromise
    Fuck compromise. Leavers never compromised on their Long March and we won't either.
    Then it will never end
    I’ll never stop bitching about it. Unless by some miracle our whole way of life exceeds that of being in the EU - public realm, worker protection, environmental regs, the whole shebang, then I will continue to bitch about it.

    Every day that passes I am more and more convinced that Brexit is a right wing project to screw normal people. To make us as divided as the US, with crumbling infrastructure and privatised healthcare. I hope I’m wrong but at the minute I don’t think I am.

    I trusted supranational EU bureaucrats to act in the best interests of most people in the UK then I will ever trust the Tory Party. The Leave campaigns, financed by the same people who finance the Tory Party, were just bullshit from beginning to end.

    I was born a European citizen. It meant a lot to me and I have had it stripped from me against my will. I will never forgive or forget that.

    Preach, brother.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,093
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    My Imperial offer back in the 90s was BBC. It was considered high at the time, but gave some wriggle room. I think some poor soul had AAB for Cambridge. It was hugely stressful for them. I feel sorry for kids today.

    All this talk of A-levels is both a bit over 20 years in the past or a bit under 20 years in the future (Daughter) to my personal situation - so I can look at all this with afar right now...
    The key question looking at all this from a very decent lens isn't is kid x getting this or that grade, but is the education system properly setting kids up for the future.
    It’s a good point, whether the education system is set up to actually deliver the needed skills.

    I quite like the idea of degree apprenticeships, where the employers and the universities work together to design a degree course, that’s both academically rigorous and providing the skills required for the worksplace.

    For example, it would be easy for Airbus, Rolls-Royce, BAe Systems and half a dozen F1 teams, to come up with a course for a Masters in Aeronautical Engineering.
    The missing idea is the mix of academic with practical, I feel.

    Lots of modern jobs require hands on skill combined with academic knowledge. Working with CNC, for example - you want someone who can machine by hand (to know what you can do with metal), mathematical and computer skills to program it, and academic knowledge about materials and their interactions.

    I would add that I have seen many, many people in pure white collar jobs who crave hands on work.

    The old class nonsense on this is garbage.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,610

    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    And so it begins: an article in the Telegraph today blames the lack of Brexit benefits experienced thus far on "the Johnson government's incompetence". Boris Johnson, the latest Brexit high priest to be blamed for Brexit not coming good. This will happen to Liz Truss eventually.
    https://twitter.com/NicholasTyrone/status/1560209392280141824

    When do you think you might live a day on earth without getting yourself triggered by Brexit? Six years on now. Its quite sad to think it plausible that you might never.
    But why though? That's the puzzling thing for me.

    I voted remain, pragmatically, and missed the deepness of attachment that some obviously had/have for the EU construct. I find it quite bizarre.

    I think it comes down to one of two things: a dislike (non-admitted) of the people of their own country and being part of the EU in their mind diluted that (perhaps combined with a dislike of the very concept of the nation state); and /or their own personal situation (i.e. property abroad or other financial aspect).
    There's practical aspects of leaving the EU for exporters that are... expensive, our Dutch accountants (An expense needed only because we left the EU) reckon reclaimation from Germany is impossible for British firms and we've got a row over a potential 6 figure VAT bill (Which I'm not going to go into on a public form) here.
    Trading in Euros would eliminate lots of currency risk for us too.
    So for me wanting to rejoin is purely on pragmatics & business reasons - any emotional or social attachment the likes of Soubry and Steve Bray show to a vast intra-country beaurocracy is beyond my comprehension.
    Good morning

    It is obvious we need an improved relationship with the EU but the likes of Soubry and Bray and @Scott_xP just cause so much annoyance they may not see it but their attitude only contributes to the divisions rather than helps to find a compromise
    Fuck compromise. Leavers never compromised on their Long March and we won't either.
    Then it will never end
    I’ll never stop bitching about it. Unless by some miracle our whole way of life exceeds that of being in the EU - public realm, worker protection, environmental regs, the whole shebang, then I will continue to bitch about it.

    Every day that passes I am more and more convinced that Brexit is a right wing project to screw normal people. To make us as divided as the US, with crumbling infrastructure and privatised healthcare. I hope I’m wrong but at the minute I don’t think I am.

    I trusted supranational EU bureaucrats to act in the best interests of most people in the UK then I will ever trust the Tory Party. The Leave campaigns, financed by the same people who finance the Tory Party, were just bullshit from beginning to end.

    I was born a European citizen. It meant a lot to me and I have had it stripped from me against my will. I will never forgive or forget that.

    Tony Benn (and Corbyn) thought that the EU was a right wing project to screw normal people.

    Anyways - you are acting as though the EU is a country. You are just as European as you always were.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,093

    Good morning, everyone.

    Pro-EU types had some obvious ways to compromise, most clearly just by keeping their own promise for a referendum on Lisbon. During May's time grieve got the concession he was after but shrieked it was 'too late'. Such MPs could've backed May's deal but they (primarily Labour) decided to oppose it, and voted the same way as the anti-EU MPs (holding diametrically opposing views and voting the same way is usually a sign one side is buggering things up).

    The Lisbon referendum was a great opportunity. It would've been lost by a mile and given both the UK establishment and the EU an undeniable sign that the UK electorate was discontent. The lesson drawn might've been 'no referendum ever again' or pro-EU people might have taken into account the view going forward.

    Also, I'd argue that compromise and nuance is inherently the friend of the pro-EU side of the argument. Blurred lines and give and take are aspects of the EU project. Black and white and clear boundaries play more into an anti-EU way of thinking.

    But the pro-EU side could still have won if they'd got the basics right (economy). And now they should consider the long term, not just winning a vote but trying to change the way the electorate view the EU. You can't do that by hiding from the matter or by just deriding those who hold other opinions.

    100% on the Lisbon thing. The Remain (to be) side took the view that "This is our project - you are not allowed a say". In a democracy, this was building an open goal for Nigel Farage and chums.

    An earlier referendum on the EU would have been won, handily.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,958

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    And so it begins: an article in the Telegraph today blames the lack of Brexit benefits experienced thus far on "the Johnson government's incompetence". Boris Johnson, the latest Brexit high priest to be blamed for Brexit not coming good. This will happen to Liz Truss eventually.
    https://twitter.com/NicholasTyrone/status/1560209392280141824

    When do you think you might live a day on earth without getting yourself triggered by Brexit? Six years on now. Its quite sad to think it plausible that you might never.
    But why though? That's the puzzling thing for me.

    I voted remain, pragmatically, and missed the deepness of attachment that some obviously had/have for the EU construct. I find it quite bizarre.

    I think it comes down to one of two things: a dislike (non-admitted) of the people of their own country and being part of the EU in their mind diluted that (perhaps combined with a dislike of the very concept of the nation state); and /or their own personal situation (i.e. property abroad or other financial aspect).
    The obsessives are on both sides. The swivel eyed obsessive bores of the nineties and noughties became the popular prophets and election winners of the last decade. Scotts time will come in the 2040s.

    My prediction? We will join the then European Federation in 2046. However in 2048 the AI takes over global governance from humans.

    And who elects the AI? If we don't have control over it AI is not a benefit but dangerous
    Yes, long term we are f***ed. If the human race is lucky, it will be mostly human with in built superior AI who take over. Such is life, well at least future life.
    There is no luck about it, if we get to a point we may not retain control over AI it should be banned and leaders elected who will ban it and enforce that ban by arresting anyone involved in it
    Do you trust the Chinese military not to develop it? Do you think the Chinese trust the US military not to develop it?

    Our divided world has no realistic choice to stop.
    I think even the Chinese government would end AI projects they were close to losing control of and which threatened their power inside and over China
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,177
    Just seen a photo of Granddaughter Two's Cambridge IGCSE certificate. It's got both grades and marks on it!

    Coincidentally, she obviously failed to get a A* in one subject by one mark and achieved an A in one subject by one mark!
This discussion has been closed.