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Remember Truss was 3rd place amongst CON MPs – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 14 in General
imageRemember Truss was 3rd place amongst CON MPs – politicalbetting.com

One of the problems about the Conservative party’s system for electing a leader is that it is entirely possible for the person who is chosen not to be the choice of MPs – something that looks set to happen in the current contest.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,505
    1st. Whereas Liz was 3rd.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,170
    edited August 6
    One ahead of Truss, then
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,505
    I suspect Gove did his best to stop Truss by supporting Badenoch but it didn't quite work.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    edited August 6
    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,477
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    9.8 Rishi Sunak 10%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.1 Liz Truss 91%
    10.5 Rishi Sunak 10%
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,477
    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    A pile-on by the right wing press aided and abetted by Team Truss, mainly on trans rights iirc.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,115
    On one hand, Liz's weakness among MPs can be exaggerated; there were quite a few candidates in her region of the Conservative party (tax cuts now, Boris was robbed), and it took a while for the votes to coalesce around her.

    However, the slowness with which that happened is a bit of a red flag. Even MPs who agreed with la Truss weren't enthusiastic to endorse her.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,157
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,115
    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    A helluva gamble.
    With hindsight, it would have worked, but he couldn't be sure how many votes he had, how many claimed supporters were lying to him, or how many votes he needed to lend.

    A bit like the difference between normal chess, where you can see all the pieces, and blitzkrieg, where you can only see your own and you don't have a clue what your opponent is up to.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    I think Mordaunt, Badenoch, Truss and Sunak were all plausible for the final two.
    Tugendhat, Shapps, Chishti, Hunt, Zahawi weren't.
    Bravermann perhaps if Truss and Badenoch weren't running.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,073
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    I think Mordaunt, Badenoch, Truss and Sunak were all plausible for the final two.
    Tugendhat, Shapps, Chishti, Hunt, Zahawi weren't.
    Bravermann perhaps if Truss and Badenoch weren't running.
    Badenoch was unprecedentedly inexperienced for the role. I don’t see that she was plausible for the final 2.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,734
    MPs have had multiple ballots amongst lots of candidates to pick the final 2 to send to members. If even after that they cannot produce 2 candidates they are happy with then tough, that is their own fault. The membership who campaign for and fundraise for the party are just as important as the parliamentary party.

    In any case Braverman and Badenoch were probably the most hardline of the leadership candidates not Truss or Sunak. Neither made the last 2
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,213
    Year of next GE

    2022 10/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 1/3
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513
    Even Sunak received less than one-quarter of the MPs votes in the first round, and less than two-fifths in the final MPs round of voting.

    The dispersed nature of the voting was a product of all of the candidates having strong weaknesses, and the party having no clear consensus on the best way forward.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,893
    edited August 6
    I can remember when PB Tories used to cast doubt on Ed Miliband's legitimacy as leader because in 2010 he gained the first choice support of "only" 31.6% of Labour MPs/MEPs on the first round of voting (and 46.6% in the final round).

    Truss managed just 14% of first choices.

    Looking back, Labour's old electoral college system was a pretty good one by contrast with what we have now.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,977
    edited August 6
    From a purely pragmatic point of view the White (Haired) Walkers have to vote for Jizzy Lizzy now. They can't go into a GE with a PM who most of the MPs thought was a wanker and not up to it.


    You put this in me
    So now what, so now what?
    Wanting, needing, waiting
    For you to Trusstify my love (my love)
    Hoping, praying
    For you to Trusstify my love
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    A helluva gamble.
    With hindsight, it would have worked, but he couldn't be sure how many votes he had, how many claimed supporters were lying to him, or how many votes he needed to lend.

    A bit like the difference between normal chess, where you can see all the pieces, and blitzkrieg, where you can only see your own and you don't have a clue what your opponent is up to.
    Wait a minute.
    There's a kind of chess where you can't see your opponents pieces??
    How does that work?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,734
    Dura_Ace said:

    From a purely pragmatic point of view the White (Haired) Walkers have to vote for Jizzy Lizzy now. They can't go into a GE with a PM who most of the MPs thought was a wanker and not up to it.


    You put this in me
    So now what, so now what?
    Wanting, needing, waiting
    For you to Trusstify my love (my love)
    Hoping, praying
    For you to Trusstify my love

    Johnson won over half of Tory MPs in 2019 and then won the membership vote too
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,115
    dixiedean said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    A helluva gamble.
    With hindsight, it would have worked, but he couldn't be sure how many votes he had, how many claimed supporters were lying to him, or how many votes he needed to lend.

    A bit like the difference between normal chess, where you can see all the pieces, and blitzkrieg, where you can only see your own and you don't have a clue what your opponent is up to.
    Wait a minute.
    There's a kind of chess where you can't see your opponents pieces??
    How does that work?

    Players sit back-to-back, with an umpire between them. Each of them has a board.

    Player A just has their pieces on their board and makes their moves there. Same for player B.

    The umpire has the complete game on their board, and indicates to players when its their turn to move and when their pieces have been captured.

    It's as nuts as it sounds, and much more fun to watch than play, frankly.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,213
    Birmingham is the big mover up the table this week (Commonwealth Games effect?). London lengthening.

    Which city will host Eurovision Song Contest 2023?
    (price a week ago in brackets)

    Glasgow 3 (2.2)
    Birmingham 5.5 (13)
    Manchester 7 (5.6)
    Leeds 17 (26)
    Aberdeen 19 (26)
    Belfast 19 (26)
    London 19 (9)
    Liverpool 20 (18)
    Brighton 28 (41)
    Edinburgh 28 (41)
    Bristol 29 (51)
    Cardiff 29 (21)
    Bradford 34 (21)
    Sheffield 34 (29)
    Dundee 34 (34)
    Newcastle 34 (34)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,477

    I can remember when PB Tories used to cast doubt on Ed Miliband's legitimacy as leader because in 2010 he gained the first choice support of "only" 31.6% of Labour MPs/MEPs on the first round of voting (and 46.6% in the final round).

    Truss managed just 14% of first choices.

    Looking back, Labour's old electoral college system was a pretty good one by contrast with what we have now.

    Drawing lots to choose the new leader would be a better system than we have now. A damn sight quicker for a start, and less blue on blue action. This is just the most recent in a series of leadership elections that the most sophisticated electorate in the world has ballsed up.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 725

    Birmingham is the big mover up the table this week (Commonwealth Games effect?). London lengthening.

    Which city will host Eurovision Song Contest 2023?
    (price a week ago in brackets)

    Glasgow 3 (2.2)
    Birmingham 5.5 (13)
    Manchester 7 (5.6)
    Leeds 17 (26)
    Aberdeen 19 (26)
    Belfast 19 (26)
    London 19 (9)
    Liverpool 20 (18)
    Brighton 28 (41)
    Edinburgh 28 (41)
    Bristol 29 (51)
    Cardiff 29 (21)
    Bradford 34 (21)
    Sheffield 34 (29)
    Dundee 34 (34)
    Newcastle 34 (34)

    Manchester is drifting because of this article I suspect. It has no suitable venue available next May. Leeds is now the presumed "Northern England" choice and fulfils all the requirements but the transport system is mediocre.

    https://news.smarkets.com/tv-and-entertainment/where-will-eurovision-2023-be-held/
  • vikvik Posts: 157
    There is no actual proof that Truss isn't the first choice of MP's.

    There was no final round where Mordaunt's votes were distributed between Truss and Sunak. It is entirely possible that Truss might have gotten more than 65% of Mordaunt's votes & edged ahead of Sunak, with 181 votes vs 174.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,213
    Dura_Ace said:

    From a purely pragmatic point of view the White (Haired) Walkers have to vote for Jizzy Lizzy now. They can't go into a GE with a PM who most of the MPs thought was a wanker and not up to it.


    You put this in me
    So now what, so now what?
    Wanting, needing, waiting
    For you to Trusstify my love (my love)
    Hoping, praying
    For you to Trusstify my love

    Poor is the man
    Whose pleasures depend
    On the permission of another

    Profound.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445
    vik said:

    There is no actual proof that Truss isn't the first choice of MP's.

    There was no final round where Mordaunt's votes were distributed between Truss and Sunak. It is entirely possible that Truss might have gotten more than 65% of Mordaunt's votes & edged ahead of Sunak, with 181 votes vs 174.

    First choice is the votes obtained in the first ballot.
    Preferred of two in a forced choice is somewhat different.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 671
    Was Corbyn the first choice of Labour MPs?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    She's almost certainly first place now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536

    Year of next GE

    2022 10/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 1/3

    I'd like a specific price for 2025.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    I'd probably sell her sub 60% to be honest.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,213

    Year of next GE

    2022 10/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 1/3

    I'd like a specific price for 2025.
    Indeed!

    January 2025 must surely be a very strong contender.

    They need to kick the ball, and that’s the longest grass available.
  • vikvik Posts: 157
    dixiedean said:

    vik said:

    There is no actual proof that Truss isn't the first choice of MP's.

    There was no final round where Mordaunt's votes were distributed between Truss and Sunak. It is entirely possible that Truss might have gotten more than 65% of Mordaunt's votes & edged ahead of Sunak, with 181 votes vs 174.

    First choice is the votes obtained in the first ballot.
    Preferred of two in a forced choice is somewhat different.
    Sure, but first choice doesn't really mean anything. The election system (very correctly) is based on preferential voting.

    Australia's entire electoral system is similarly based on preferential voting & the current Labor government got less first preference votes (33%) vs the Coalition (36%). It doesn't make Labor an illegitimate government. Everybody accepts that Greens & other minor parties preferred a Labor government to a Coalition.

    Similarly, if Truss got more of Mordaunt's votes than Sunak then that would have meant that Mordaunt's voters preferred Truss to Sunak. It doesn't call into question Truss' legitimacy as the party leader.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,213
    England is heading for a drought, Environment Agency warns

    According to the Environment Agency, most of England is in “prolonged dry weather” status, but the country has not yet officially entered a drought. The National Drought Group — which brings together the Environment Agency, government, water companies, the National Farmers’ Union and industry and environmental groups — is expected to meet again this month following their July meeting.

    https://www.ft.com/content/5dcf3944-5f27-49a1-917e-08fee8ebe35f
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 608
    Where did the idea of having "rounds" until a candidate wins legitimacy from having a "majority" come from? It smacks of papal conclaves and De Gaulle's 5th Republic.

    How about using FPTP? Get the most votes from MPs and you're in. If you want to vote for a minor candidate to make a point, fine. If 10 minor candidates pick up votes from a total of half the electorate, that's also fine. Sure, the winner might enjoy less "legitimacy" but it's not a perfect world. At least you don't incentivise the dishonesty of "lending" votes to another candidate so as to knock out a main rival.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,115
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    There was that poll earlier in the week that had BORIS winning a three-way fight between Boris, Rishi and Liz. After everything that has happened, that's nuts. But politics can stay nuts for a long time.

    But Sunak was rational, decent(ish, and far too late) and (politically) wrong. Truss was stupidy loyal to a busted flush, but that was politically smart of her.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 608

    I can remember when PB Tories used to cast doubt on Ed Miliband's legitimacy as leader because in 2010 he gained the first choice support of "only" 31.6% of Labour MPs/MEPs on the first round of voting (and 46.6% in the final round).

    Truss managed just 14% of first choices.

    Looking back, Labour's old electoral college system was a pretty good one by contrast with what we have now.

    Drawing lots to choose the new leader would be a better system than we have now. A damn sight quicker for a start, and less blue on blue action. This is just the most recent in a series of leadership elections that the most sophisticated electorate in the world has ballsed up.
    It's hilarious when Tory MPs are called the most sophisticated electorate in the world. Some of them may think they are. The biggest knuckleheads among them, especially.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,811
    RH1992 said:

    Birmingham is the big mover up the table this week (Commonwealth Games effect?). London lengthening.

    Which city will host Eurovision Song Contest 2023?
    (price a week ago in brackets)

    Glasgow 3 (2.2)
    Birmingham 5.5 (13)
    Manchester 7 (5.6)
    Leeds 17 (26)
    Aberdeen 19 (26)
    Belfast 19 (26)
    London 19 (9)
    Liverpool 20 (18)
    Brighton 28 (41)
    Edinburgh 28 (41)
    Bristol 29 (51)
    Cardiff 29 (21)
    Bradford 34 (21)
    Sheffield 34 (29)
    Dundee 34 (34)
    Newcastle 34 (34)

    Manchester is drifting because of this article I suspect. It has no suitable venue available next May. Leeds is now the presumed "Northern England" choice and fulfils all the requirements but the transport system is mediocre.

    https://news.smarkets.com/tv-and-entertainment/where-will-eurovision-2023-be-held/
    Not sure why Cardiff is there. They've dropped out

    "Eurovision 2023: Cardiff out of race for song contest"
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-62406786
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,941
    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    In Sunak and Truss the Tories have 2 articulate, well educated, moderately competent potential leaders. They both have flaws, and both will seriously struggle to cope with the problems we have right now. Sunak is the more small c Conservative one, dubious about the ability of the state to do much and keener to leave things to private enterprise and the hidden hand of the market. Truss is keener to have government do things, to take more risks and will undoubtedly be more activist.

    Have either of them got a real handle on the mess that they are inheriting with inflation rampant, QE, high taxes but very poorly performing public services, low productivity and investment, an ongoing balance of payments problem, Andrew Bailey, Ukraine, gas prices, etc etc? Not really, but then who does?

    Shouldn't that be 'the mess the they helped to create'?
    Not really in that most of the mess predates their time in politics. But I would agree that so far they have done little to address it. IT was famously a temporary measure to fund the Napoleonic wars. Most things in government start with temporary measures that become permanent. But the emergency steps taken after the GFC have become our economic policy for the last 14 years, and not just in this country. However justifiable they were at the time they were not a long term solution and they are now breaking down.
    QE and near zero interest rates - aka plentiful cheap-as-chips money - is the drug that's kept us living beyond our means for years. It's only tenable if inflation is being prevented by other macro factors. Now inflation's here the drug can't be continued because the side effects are too severe and too risky, therefore we'll have to come off it and IMO there is no way, no way at all, to do this without a world of pain. People have to get poorer. So for me the key thing is to drop the fairytales and concentrate on making sure the loss is skewed towards those most able to bear it.
    Lower house prices and fewer foreign holidays have various economic, social and environmental benefits as well.

    But there are millions of people who think they need higher house prices and/or think they are entitled to more foreign holidays.
    You're going a bit Guru of Grim again with the foreign holidays (non) point but - YES - we really need lower house prices. I'd probably have this in my top 5 of things that would transform the country for the better. So much better to achieve it with prices stable for many years while everything else goes up, rather than a crash, but the world doesn't tend to work like that unfortunately.
    It isn't really a price problem though that is how it manifests. As I am fond of pointing out, if the Titanic was short of lifeboats (which I believe is true, doesn't matter if it isn't) it would be perverse of the officers to address the issue as one of how to make lifeboat places more *affordable* for the third class passengers.
    Back to policy objectives and solving the real problem(s) -

    The Titanic actually had multiple lifeboat problems. The actual spaces was the last in the line of the holes in the cheese -

    1) not enough trained seamen to launch and man the boats they had.
    2) no practise. A major issue was that the wooden boats flexed massively as they were loaded. As they were designed to do. But to officers and men unfamiliar with this, it seemed dangerous. So they massively under loaded the boats.
    4) the plan was to load the boats by rowing to the gangway exit on the ship. But by the time they went there, the few stewards trying to control things had been overwhelmed. Fearing the boats would swamped, they towed away. This bit got kind of left out in most accounts…..
    5) shortage of spaces in the boats.

    The reason I’m putting all this down is that a classic flaw in policy making is to fix one real problem - not the chain of problems.

    What the Titanic needed was more seamen, more automated boat launching, more boat practise. And more boats.

    Most of these were implemented after the Titanic. The problem was (and still is) seamen to direct, control and undertake the evacuation - see the various modern disasters involving passenger ships.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 608
    2024 London mayoral election - a battle between two independent candidates: Corbyn vs Johnson :-)
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,095
    But how many of the MPs who didn't vote for her are now going to come out with the old, 'But she's soared in stature as the debates went on and is now impressing me in ways that I never thought possible.'?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,053
    Dynamo said:

    2024 London mayoral election - a battle between two independent candidates: Corbyn vs Johnson :-)

    Alien vs. Predator
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    Almost certainly but at least he'd feel lile he had a chance before losing by 20 points to Penny.

    At the moment you can smell the resigned desperation coming from him
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,773
    Dynamo said:

    Where did the idea of having "rounds" until a candidate wins legitimacy from having a "majority" come from? It smacks of papal conclaves and De Gaulle's 5th Republic.

    How about using FPTP? Get the most votes from MPs and you're in. If you want to vote for a minor candidate to make a point, fine. If 10 minor candidates pick up votes from a total of half the electorate, that's also fine. Sure, the winner might enjoy less "legitimacy" but it's not a perfect world. At least you don't incentivise the dishonesty of "lending" votes to another candidate so as to knock out a main rival.

    STV would have been better. Any sordid deals would have been done beforehand with one subsequent vote.
    Just like aus. No runoff required.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,893
    edited August 6

    She's almost certainly first place now.

    I rather doubt it, and even then that would only be in a face off with Sunak alone. The rather improbable supporters she has belatedly picked up (the likes of Tugenhat, Mordaunt, Javid for example) have surely done so only to further their own careers in a situation where the outcome appears all but inevitable. The key point is that very few MPs thought enough of her to back her when they had multiple choices - only 1 in 7 in fact.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    (FPT)
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Taz said:

    Jake Berry on Sky News. Truss to offer hope not handouts.

    And will the energy companies accept "hope" in payment for providing heating?
    The strange thing is we all know the reality is that they will need to offer massive subsidies on heating this winter. Why not get ahead of the curve and own it rather than spend the next three months saying help is a bad thing and then do a last minute u-turn?
    There is something very frivolous about this campaign. They are not addressing the very real concerns people have and are making ludicrous promises to a narrow group people that will either harm the rest of us or that they will have to break pretty soon after taking office.

    It is fundamentally unserious.

    FWIW Husband is voting Sunak. But with no enthusiasm at all. Like choosing between being infested with fleas or lice.
    Well if he will choose to stay in a party of parasites ....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,793
    Beautiful day here in Sussex.

    Driving to see my father a thought just popped in there…. Liz Truss Prime Minister.

    Leaving all partisan aspects aside. Good grief what on Earth are people thinking!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    A detailed response to the Amnesty report.

    https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/08/06/whats-wrong-with-amnesty-internationals-conclusions-that-ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/
    ...As the Ukrainian Government appears to accept, every military – whether fighting for its sovereignty or preservation of its people or otherwise — must abide by IHL and be seen to be doing so. No warring party, however righteous their cause, can evade these demands. Being on the side of the angels is no defence.
    But human rights organisations, especially those with the international reach of Amnesty International (AI), have a correlative obligation to ensure that trenchant allegations alleging failures are based upon a comprehensive fact-finding exercise, a proper methodological approach and conclusions that take into account the realities of a beleaguered government’s attempt to defend its population from systematic war crimes, a persecutory campaign encompassing crimes against humanity and possibly genocide....

  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 427

    Year of next GE

    2022 10/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 1/3

    I've only just twigged that 2024 might be the year of :

    * UK general election
    * "Indyref2" (in theory - assuming the SNP run their election campaign as an 'indyref' platform)
    * London mayoral election
    * US Presidential election

    Combined with possible economic bad times, that's going to be quite the news cycle.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,135
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    The Beloved Boris mentality is worthy of study.

    It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.

    And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.

    Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    Jonathan said:

    Beautiful day here in Sussex.

    Driving to see my father a thought just popped in there…. Liz Truss Prime Minister.

    Leaving all partisan aspects aside. Good grief what on Earth are people thinking!

    Don't blame me!
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,811
    edited August 6
    It seems the Rwanda plan might have made the Channel People Smugglers drop their prices

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/aug/06/channel-smugglers-drop-prices-and-cram-more-people-on-to-boats

    "One Syrian asylum seeker told the Guardian that the smugglers had dropped their prices dramatically. “Before it was £3,000 or £4,000 to cross. Now the top price is £1,200 and some asylum seekers are negotiating a price of as little as £500 to cross. Everyone can afford to cross these days. Some asylum seekers are saying to smugglers, ‘Why should I pay you £4,000 to go to the UK when I might end up in Rwanda? I will pay you £500’. Then a deal is struck.”"
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    edited August 6

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    The Beloved Boris mentality is worthy of study.

    It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.

    And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.

    Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
    The party members are old and frightened and Boris will kiss them and make the nasty things go away and make it all right, like Nanny?
  • PantherDavePantherDave Posts: 56
    dixiedean said:

    vik said:

    There is no actual proof that Truss isn't the first choice of MP's.

    There was no final round where Mordaunt's votes were distributed between Truss and Sunak. It is entirely possible that Truss might have gotten more than 65% of Mordaunt's votes & edged ahead of Sunak, with 181 votes vs 174.

    First choice is the votes obtained in the first ballot.
    Preferred of two in a forced choice is somewhat different.
    The membership have a forced choice of two as well. Who knows who would have been top for them of all the candidates
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    CatMan said:

    It seems the Rwanda plan might have made the Channel People Smugglers drop their prices

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/aug/06/channel-smugglers-drop-prices-and-cram-more-people-on-to-boats
    "
    One Syrian asylum seeker told the Guardian that the smugglers had dropped their prices dramatically. “Before it was £3,000 or £4,000 to cross. Now the top price is £1,200 and some asylum seekers are negotiating a price of as little as £500 to cross. Everyone can afford to cross these days. Some asylum seekers are saying to smugglers, ‘Why should I pay you £4,000 to go to the UK when I might end up in Rwanda? I will pay you £500’. Then a deal is struck.”
    "

    Which, presumably, means more people crossing, depending on how many of the smugglers remain in the trade?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445

    dixiedean said:

    vik said:

    There is no actual proof that Truss isn't the first choice of MP's.

    There was no final round where Mordaunt's votes were distributed between Truss and Sunak. It is entirely possible that Truss might have gotten more than 65% of Mordaunt's votes & edged ahead of Sunak, with 181 votes vs 174.

    First choice is the votes obtained in the first ballot.
    Preferred of two in a forced choice is somewhat different.
    The membership have a forced choice of two as well. Who knows who would have been top for them of all the candidates
    I could make a pretty educated guess it would be someone who isn't a candidate.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,719
    dixiedean said:

    CatMan said:

    It seems the Rwanda plan might have made the Channel People Smugglers drop their prices

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/aug/06/channel-smugglers-drop-prices-and-cram-more-people-on-to-boats
    "
    One Syrian asylum seeker told the Guardian that the smugglers had dropped their prices dramatically. “Before it was £3,000 or £4,000 to cross. Now the top price is £1,200 and some asylum seekers are negotiating a price of as little as £500 to cross. Everyone can afford to cross these days. Some asylum seekers are saying to smugglers, ‘Why should I pay you £4,000 to go to the UK when I might end up in Rwanda? I will pay you £500’. Then a deal is struck.”
    "

    If only the government could act to cut prices in other areas so efficiently and swiftly.
    Send people who don’t pay their energy bills to Rwanda?

    Win/win for those people as they don’t have to pay their bill and they get a free trip to somewhere nice and warm for the winter.

    Priti is on the case.

  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,244

    Jonathan said:

    Beautiful day here in Sussex.

    Driving to see my father a thought just popped in there…. Liz Truss Prime Minister.

    Leaving all partisan aspects aside. Good grief what on Earth are people thinking!

    Don't blame me!
    But I do blame you, Mr Mark. If your lot had not gone mad in 2015 and targeted the Lib Dem seats, the result of that election could well have been a continuation of the coalition government, with the Tory leader still being that nice Mr Cameron.

    Greed is one of the deadly sins that you have to pay for. The problem is that we are all having to pay the price of your sin.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341

    Birmingham is the big mover up the table this week (Commonwealth Games effect?). London lengthening.

    Which city will host Eurovision Song Contest 2023?
    (price a week ago in brackets)

    Glasgow 3 (2.2)
    Birmingham 5.5 (13)
    Manchester 7 (5.6)
    Leeds 17 (26)
    Aberdeen 19 (26)
    Belfast 19 (26)
    London 19 (9)
    Liverpool 20 (18)
    Brighton 28 (41)
    Edinburgh 28 (41)
    Bristol 29 (51)
    Cardiff 29 (21)
    Bradford 34 (21)
    Sheffield 34 (29)
    Dundee 34 (34)
    Newcastle 34 (34)

    I wrote a thriller some many years back that started with the NEC being burnt down by IRA Good Friday refuseniks, on the night before Eurovision.

    The idea of us hosting Eurovision was always the most implausible element of an interesting plot....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,734
    edited August 6

    dixiedean said:

    vik said:

    There is no actual proof that Truss isn't the first choice of MP's.

    There was no final round where Mordaunt's votes were distributed between Truss and Sunak. It is entirely possible that Truss might have gotten more than 65% of Mordaunt's votes & edged ahead of Sunak, with 181 votes vs 174.

    First choice is the votes obtained in the first ballot.
    Preferred of two in a forced choice is somewhat different.
    The membership have a forced choice of two as well. Who knows who would have been top for them of all the candidates
    Had all the candidates with enough MP nominations been sent to the membership as Labour does then the membership polling was clear. Badenoch would have won a resounding victory no doubt, over Truss as well as Sunak
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445
    edited August 6
    This doesn't answer the question. It merely answers the question that she would prefer to be asked.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/06/liz-truss-handouts-cost-of-living-crisis-tax-cuts-conservative-leadership

    The real question is what happens to energy companies, landlords and Councils when people, and there'll be a lot of working folk too, simply cannot pay their bills?
    Something has to give.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,032
    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Taz said:

    Jake Berry on Sky News. Truss to offer hope not handouts.

    And will the energy companies accept "hope" in payment for providing heating?
    The strange thing is we all know the reality is that they will need to offer massive subsidies on heating this winter. Why not get ahead of the curve and own it rather than spend the next three months saying help is a bad thing and then do a last minute u-turn?
    There is something very frivolous about this campaign. They are not addressing the very real concerns people have and are making ludicrous promises to a narrow group people that will either harm the rest of us or that they will have to break pretty soon after taking office.

    It is fundamentally unserious.

    FWIW Husband is voting Sunak. But with no enthusiasm at all. Like choosing between being infested with fleas or lice.
    Well if he will choose to stay in a party of parasites ....
    I'm a bit surprised by his continued membership to be honest. He only joined to vote "Not Boris". He votes Green in local elections and really likes the Labour councillor in Millom who is a friend, very sensible and gets things done. The last matters a lot to Husband. He knows and likes on a personal basis Trudi Harrison but says she's hopeless at getting anything done for the local area. Husband is involved in the local Civic Society and with the proposed Iron Line and other worthy voluntary causes and places a lot of store on people with sensible pragmatic solutions rather than fancy ideas and a lot of blather. He'd sack pretty much everyone at Cumbria County Council on the grounds of their general uselessness.

    I think he may have got a free pen or something when he joined. But we are cutting back our spending and, exciting as it is to have Tory leadership elections almost as often as Xmas, something's gotta give. So ....
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,308

    She's almost certainly first place now.

    I rather doubt it, and even then that would only be in a face off with Sunak alone. The rather improbable supporters she has belatedly picked up (the likes of Tugenhat, Mordaunt, Javid for example) have surely done so only to further their own careers in a situation where the outcome appears all but inevitable. The key point is that very few MPs thought enough of her to back her when they had multiple choices - only 1 in 7 in fact.
    The same is true of Sunak. MP's flocked to him because they believed he would get the job by hook or by crook.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    edited August 6
    ClippP said:

    Jonathan said:

    Beautiful day here in Sussex.

    Driving to see my father a thought just popped in there…. Liz Truss Prime Minister.

    Leaving all partisan aspects aside. Good grief what on Earth are people thinking!

    Don't blame me!
    But I do blame you, Mr Mark. If your lot had not gone mad in 2015 and targeted the Lib Dem seats, the result of that election could well have been a continuation of the coalition government, with the Tory leader still being that nice Mr Cameron.

    Greed is one of the deadly sins that you have to pay for. The problem is that we are all having to pay the price of your sin.
    And if that same nice Mr Cameron had kept his promise to Mr Clegg that he and the Tory Party HQ would stay neutral during the AV referendum, rather than deploy all that egregious nonsense about babies dying, we might even have the opportunity to cast second and third choice votes when choosing our MP, like Tory MPs enjoy when they choose their leadership candidates...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393
    Dura_Ace said:

    From a purely pragmatic point of view the White (Haired) Walkers have to vote for Jizzy Lizzy now. They can't go into a GE with a PM who most of the MPs thought was a wanker and not up to it.


    You put this in me
    So now what, so now what?
    Wanting, needing, waiting
    For you to Trusstify my love (my love)
    Hoping, praying
    For you to Trusstify my love

    That remains one of the filthiest pop songs ever. The video too.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    boulay said:

    dixiedean said:

    CatMan said:

    It seems the Rwanda plan might have made the Channel People Smugglers drop their prices

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/aug/06/channel-smugglers-drop-prices-and-cram-more-people-on-to-boats
    "
    One Syrian asylum seeker told the Guardian that the smugglers had dropped their prices dramatically. “Before it was £3,000 or £4,000 to cross. Now the top price is £1,200 and some asylum seekers are negotiating a price of as little as £500 to cross. Everyone can afford to cross these days. Some asylum seekers are saying to smugglers, ‘Why should I pay you £4,000 to go to the UK when I might end up in Rwanda? I will pay you £500’. Then a deal is struck.”
    "

    If only the government could act to cut prices in other areas so efficiently and swiftly.
    Send people who don’t pay their energy bills to Rwanda?

    Win/win for those people as they don’t have to pay their bill and they get a free trip to somewhere nice and warm for the winter.

    Priti is on the case.

    My parents already have an invitation, to spend the worst part of winter somewhere warm and sunny!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393
    CatMan said:

    It seems the Rwanda plan might have made the Channel People Smugglers drop their prices

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/aug/06/channel-smugglers-drop-prices-and-cram-more-people-on-to-boats

    "One Syrian asylum seeker told the Guardian that the smugglers had dropped their prices dramatically. “Before it was £3,000 or £4,000 to cross. Now the top price is £1,200 and some asylum seekers are negotiating a price of as little as £500 to cross. Everyone can afford to cross these days. Some asylum seekers are saying to smugglers, ‘Why should I pay you £4,000 to go to the UK when I might end up in Rwanda? I will pay you £500’. Then a deal is struck.”"

    Fantastic. "We'll send the forrin to Rwanda, that'll stop them!"

    Except that nobody goes to Rwanda. And now the price of getting here is a fraction of what it once was.

    Bravo you Tories! Couldn't have fucked this up harder if you'd tried.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,520

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    The Beloved Boris mentality is worthy of study.

    It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.

    And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.

    Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
    I've met 3 people who are of the beloved Boris mentality (like the expression btw).
    All felt strongly that Boris Johnson was extremely hardworking for the country.

    They literally brought this up as a strength of his "he's worked so hard for us, he's getting on with the job etc."

    Now obviously neither I nor they observe Boris Johnson's working hours... the only explanation I can think for this is that Boris has repeatedly said (and his MPs have repeatedly said) how hard he is working. Perhaps the simple lesson is that repeatedly saying something makes it true for the public.

    Not an original take - but I struggle to think of other explanations.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    ClippP said:

    Jonathan said:

    Beautiful day here in Sussex.

    Driving to see my father a thought just popped in there…. Liz Truss Prime Minister.

    Leaving all partisan aspects aside. Good grief what on Earth are people thinking!

    Don't blame me!
    But I do blame you, Mr Mark. If your lot had not gone mad in 2015 and targeted the Lib Dem seats, the result of that election could well have been a continuation of the coalition government, with the Tory leader still being that nice Mr Cameron.

    Greed is one of the deadly sins that you have to pay for. The problem is that we are all having to pay the price of your sin.
    We didn't need to target those seats. Nick Clegg had poisoned the LibDem well, without us needing to tip anything in there.

    But if you will have a leader named after an annoying, biting horse fly....
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,308
    Carnyx said:

    CatMan said:

    It seems the Rwanda plan might have made the Channel People Smugglers drop their prices

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/aug/06/channel-smugglers-drop-prices-and-cram-more-people-on-to-boats
    "
    One Syrian asylum seeker told the Guardian that the smugglers had dropped their prices dramatically. “Before it was £3,000 or £4,000 to cross. Now the top price is £1,200 and some asylum seekers are negotiating a price of as little as £500 to cross. Everyone can afford to cross these days. Some asylum seekers are saying to smugglers, ‘Why should I pay you £4,000 to go to the UK when I might end up in Rwanda? I will pay you £500’. Then a deal is struck.”
    "

    Which, presumably, means more people crossing, depending on how many of the smugglers remain in the trade?
    Yes. Which is obviously bad. However, it does show an effect at work. If some Rwanda became 'all claims processed in Rwanda (or similar)' those getting on boats at all would basically be nil.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994

    Carnyx said:

    CatMan said:

    It seems the Rwanda plan might have made the Channel People Smugglers drop their prices

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/aug/06/channel-smugglers-drop-prices-and-cram-more-people-on-to-boats
    "
    One Syrian asylum seeker told the Guardian that the smugglers had dropped their prices dramatically. “Before it was £3,000 or £4,000 to cross. Now the top price is £1,200 and some asylum seekers are negotiating a price of as little as £500 to cross. Everyone can afford to cross these days. Some asylum seekers are saying to smugglers, ‘Why should I pay you £4,000 to go to the UK when I might end up in Rwanda? I will pay you £500’. Then a deal is struck.”
    "

    Which, presumably, means more people crossing, depending on how many of the smugglers remain in the trade?
    Yes. Which is obviously bad. However, it does show an effect at work. If some Rwanda became 'all claims processed in Rwanda (or similar)' those getting on boats at all would basically be nil.
    They'll just try to evade the authorities instead?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,308
    rkrkrk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    The Beloved Boris mentality is worthy of study.

    It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.

    And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.

    Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
    I've met 3 people who are of the beloved Boris mentality (like the expression btw).
    All felt strongly that Boris Johnson was extremely hardworking for the country.

    They literally brought this up as a strength of his "he's worked so hard for us, he's getting on with the job etc."

    Now obviously neither I nor they observe Boris Johnson's working hours... the only explanation I can think for this is that Boris has repeatedly said (and his MPs have repeatedly said) how hard he is working. Perhaps the simple lesson is that repeatedly saying something makes it true for the public.

    Not an original take - but I struggle to think of other explanations.
    He could have worked extremely hard. What is known is that he didn't work very effectively.

    The PM 'living above the shop' is wrong imo for all sorts of reasons. I believe the PM should live a short drive or long walk from No. 10, in a flat in one of the Royal Estates.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536

    CatMan said:

    It seems the Rwanda plan might have made the Channel People Smugglers drop their prices

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/aug/06/channel-smugglers-drop-prices-and-cram-more-people-on-to-boats

    "One Syrian asylum seeker told the Guardian that the smugglers had dropped their prices dramatically. “Before it was £3,000 or £4,000 to cross. Now the top price is £1,200 and some asylum seekers are negotiating a price of as little as £500 to cross. Everyone can afford to cross these days. Some asylum seekers are saying to smugglers, ‘Why should I pay you £4,000 to go to the UK when I might end up in Rwanda? I will pay you £500’. Then a deal is struck.”"

    Fantastic. "We'll send the forrin to Rwanda, that'll stop them!"

    Except that nobody goes to Rwanda. And now the price of getting here is a fraction of what it once was.

    Bravo you Tories! Couldn't have fucked this up harder if you'd tried.
    Rwanda is £350m on the bus. Both sides squabble over what is essentially a trivial sideshow because Values.

    Even if working at full capacity it might take 200-300 migrants every 2-3 months, whereas we have 60,000+ to deal with.

    The only solution is a deal with France to return every boat back to Calais.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,308
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    CatMan said:

    It seems the Rwanda plan might have made the Channel People Smugglers drop their prices

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/aug/06/channel-smugglers-drop-prices-and-cram-more-people-on-to-boats
    "
    One Syrian asylum seeker told the Guardian that the smugglers had dropped their prices dramatically. “Before it was £3,000 or £4,000 to cross. Now the top price is £1,200 and some asylum seekers are negotiating a price of as little as £500 to cross. Everyone can afford to cross these days. Some asylum seekers are saying to smugglers, ‘Why should I pay you £4,000 to go to the UK when I might end up in Rwanda? I will pay you £500’. Then a deal is struck.”
    "

    Which, presumably, means more people crossing, depending on how many of the smugglers remain in the trade?
    Yes. Which is obviously bad. However, it does show an effect at work. If some Rwanda became 'all claims processed in Rwanda (or similar)' those getting on boats at all would basically be nil.
    They'll just try to evade the authorities instead?
    Possibly.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536

    Jonathan said:

    Beautiful day here in Sussex.

    Driving to see my father a thought just popped in there…. Liz Truss Prime Minister.

    Leaving all partisan aspects aside. Good grief what on Earth are people thinking!

    Don't blame me!
    You're only human, after all.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    edited August 6
    rkrkrk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    The Beloved Boris mentality is worthy of study.

    It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.

    And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.

    Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
    I've met 3 people who are of the beloved Boris mentality (like the expression btw).
    All felt strongly that Boris Johnson was extremely hardworking for the country.

    They literally brought this up as a strength of his "he's worked so hard for us, he's getting on with the job etc."

    Now obviously neither I nor they observe Boris Johnson's working hours... the only explanation I can think for this is that Boris has repeatedly said (and his MPs have repeatedly said) how hard he is working. Perhaps the simple lesson is that repeatedly saying something makes it true for the public.

    Not an original take - but I struggle to think of other explanations.
    Yes, the one thing he is not, is hard working!

    Although, I would guess it would to him, used to winging everything with the minimum of last-minute effort, have felt like very hard work indeed, since no-one is going to be PM without a lot of work coming their way. So when he said he worked hard, he surely believed it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341

    Dura_Ace said:

    From a purely pragmatic point of view the White (Haired) Walkers have to vote for Jizzy Lizzy now. They can't go into a GE with a PM who most of the MPs thought was a wanker and not up to it.


    You put this in me
    So now what, so now what?
    Wanting, needing, waiting
    For you to Trusstify my love (my love)
    Hoping, praying
    For you to Trusstify my love

    That remains one of the filthiest pop songs ever. The video too.
    Thirty years on, still sublime.

    (Especially the William Orbit remix.)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    The Beloved Boris mentality is worthy of study.

    It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.

    And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.

    Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
    It is - a curious mix of celeb worship, anti-intellectualism, class deference, escapism, and short attention spans plus shallow sensibilities in the age of social media and reality tv is my best shot at explaining it.

    But I don't want to do the actual study. I'd rather try my level best to forget him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,734
    ClippP said:

    Jonathan said:

    Beautiful day here in Sussex.

    Driving to see my father a thought just popped in there…. Liz Truss Prime Minister.

    Leaving all partisan aspects aside. Good grief what on Earth are people thinking!

    Don't blame me!
    But I do blame you, Mr Mark. If your lot had not gone mad in 2015 and targeted the Lib Dem seats, the result of that election could well have been a continuation of the coalition government, with the Tory leader still being that nice Mr Cameron.

    Greed is one of the deadly sins that you have to pay for. The problem is that we are all having to pay the price of your sin.
    Liz Truss is an ex LD activist and in her youth was more radical than Nick Clegg. What are you complaining about?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    edited August 6

    Dura_Ace said:

    From a purely pragmatic point of view the White (Haired) Walkers have to vote for Jizzy Lizzy now. They can't go into a GE with a PM who most of the MPs thought was a wanker and not up to it.


    You put this in me
    So now what, so now what?
    Wanting, needing, waiting
    For you to Trusstify my love (my love)
    Hoping, praying
    For you to Trusstify my love

    That remains one of the filthiest pop songs ever. The video too.
    The only pop music video I recall being released individually on VHS, as no TV stations would play it.

    https://www.madonnashop.com/buy/justify-my-love-vhs-single/
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,520

    rkrkrk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    The Beloved Boris mentality is worthy of study.

    It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.

    And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.

    Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
    I've met 3 people who are of the beloved Boris mentality (like the expression btw).
    All felt strongly that Boris Johnson was extremely hardworking for the country.

    They literally brought this up as a strength of his "he's worked so hard for us, he's getting on with the job etc."

    Now obviously neither I nor they observe Boris Johnson's working hours... the only explanation I can think for this is that Boris has repeatedly said (and his MPs have repeatedly said) how hard he is working. Perhaps the simple lesson is that repeatedly saying something makes it true for the public.

    Not an original take - but I struggle to think of other explanations.
    He could have worked extremely hard. What is known is that he didn't work very effectively.

    The PM 'living above the shop' is wrong imo for all sorts of reasons. I believe the PM should live a short drive or long walk from No. 10, in a flat in one of the Royal Estates.
    There's enough evidence out there for me that he was a pretty lazy PM/adminstrator.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-38-days-when-britain-sleepwalked-into-disaster-hq3b9tlgh
    https://www.economist.com/britain/2022/07/06/the-toxicity-of-boris-johnson
  • TresTres Posts: 1,161
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    The Beloved Boris mentality is worthy of study.

    It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.

    And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.

    Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
    It is - a curious mix of celeb worship, anti-intellectualism, class deference, escapism, and short attention spans plus shallow sensibilities in the age of social media and reality tv is my best shot at explaining it.

    But I don't want to do the actual study. I'd rather try my level best to forget him.
    nah I wouldn't complicate it - just some people are more gullible than the rest of us
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,734
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    The Beloved Boris mentality is worthy of study.

    It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.

    And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.

    Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
    It is - a curious mix of celeb worship, anti-intellectualism, class deference, escapism, and short attention spans plus shallow sensibilities in the age of social media and reality tv is my best shot at explaining it.

    But I don't want to do the actual study. I'd rather try my level best to forget him.
    Boris is a classics scholar, probably was our most intellectual PM since Gordon Brown
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,244
    edited August 6
    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    Jonathan said:

    Beautiful day here in Sussex.

    Driving to see my father a thought just popped in there…. Liz Truss Prime Minister.

    Leaving all partisan aspects aside. Good grief what on Earth are people thinking!

    Don't blame me!
    But I do blame you, Mr Mark. If your lot had not gone mad in 2015 and targeted the Lib Dem seats, the result of that election could well have been a continuation of the coalition government, with the Tory leader still being that nice Mr Cameron.

    Greed is one of the deadly sins that you have to pay for. The problem is that we are all having to pay the price of your sin.
    Liz Truss is an ex LD activist and in her youth was more radical than Nick Clegg. What are you complaining about?
    That she has been corrupted by a lust for power and, with it, an easy life where thousands of Tory minions work for her, spin for her and the wealthy ones pave her path with gold.

    All she has to do in exchange for that is live with corruption and do as she is told.

    Being a bit radical, as she used to be, and asking challenging questions is what we need in a democracy.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,308

    Dura_Ace said:

    From a purely pragmatic point of view the White (Haired) Walkers have to vote for Jizzy Lizzy now. They can't go into a GE with a PM who most of the MPs thought was a wanker and not up to it.


    You put this in me
    So now what, so now what?
    Wanting, needing, waiting
    For you to Trusstify my love (my love)
    Hoping, praying
    For you to Trusstify my love

    That remains one of the filthiest pop songs ever. The video too.
    Thirty years on, still sublime.

    (Especially the William Orbit remix.)
    She had a pretty brilliant run. Tuned out of her now - seen a few shots in online tabloids and it looks like she's slipped into self parody and facial injection addiction nowadays.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,308
    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    Jonathan said:

    Beautiful day here in Sussex.

    Driving to see my father a thought just popped in there…. Liz Truss Prime Minister.

    Leaving all partisan aspects aside. Good grief what on Earth are people thinking!

    Don't blame me!
    But I do blame you, Mr Mark. If your lot had not gone mad in 2015 and targeted the Lib Dem seats, the result of that election could well have been a continuation of the coalition government, with the Tory leader still being that nice Mr Cameron.

    Greed is one of the deadly sins that you have to pay for. The problem is that we are all having to pay the price of your sin.
    Liz Truss is an ex LD activist and in her youth was more radical than Nick Clegg. What are you complaining about?
    That she has been corrupted by a lust for power and, with it, an easy life where thousands of Tory minions work for her, spin for her and the wealthy ones pave her path with gold.

    All she has to do in exchange for that is live with corruption and do as she is told.
    Nick Clegg would be proud.
  • TresTres Posts: 1,161
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    The Beloved Boris mentality is worthy of study.

    It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.

    And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.

    Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
    It is - a curious mix of celeb worship, anti-intellectualism, class deference, escapism, and short attention spans plus shallow sensibilities in the age of social media and reality tv is my best shot at explaining it.

    But I don't want to do the actual study. I'd rather try my level best to forget him.
    Boris is a classics scholar, probably was our most intellectual PM since Gordon Brown
    classics is basically a step up from art history for public school bluffers
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,734
    Tres said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    The Beloved Boris mentality is worthy of study.

    It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.

    And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.

    Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
    It is - a curious mix of celeb worship, anti-intellectualism, class deference, escapism, and short attention spans plus shallow sensibilities in the age of social media and reality tv is my best shot at explaining it.

    But I don't want to do the actual study. I'd rather try my level best to forget him.
    Boris is a classics scholar, probably was our most intellectual PM since Gordon Brown
    classics is basically a step up from art history for public school bluffers
    You can't be a true intellectual and have no interest in the classics or the history of art
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,244

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    Jonathan said:

    Beautiful day here in Sussex.

    Driving to see my father a thought just popped in there…. Liz Truss Prime Minister.

    Leaving all partisan aspects aside. Good grief what on Earth are people thinking!

    Don't blame me!
    But I do blame you, Mr Mark. If your lot had not gone mad in 2015 and targeted the Lib Dem seats, the result of that election could well have been a continuation of the coalition government, with the Tory leader still being that nice Mr Cameron.

    Greed is one of the deadly sins that you have to pay for. The problem is that we are all having to pay the price of your sin.
    Liz Truss is an ex LD activist and in her youth was more radical than Nick Clegg. What are you complaining about?
    That she has been corrupted by a lust for power and, with it, an easy life where thousands of Tory minions work for her, spin for her and the wealthy ones pave her path with gold.

    All she has to do in exchange for that is live with corruption and do as she is told.
    Nick Clegg would be proud.
    Nick Clegg had it too easy too. He would have been a better politician if he had had to struggle a bit more.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,308

    CatMan said:

    It seems the Rwanda plan might have made the Channel People Smugglers drop their prices

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/aug/06/channel-smugglers-drop-prices-and-cram-more-people-on-to-boats

    "One Syrian asylum seeker told the Guardian that the smugglers had dropped their prices dramatically. “Before it was £3,000 or £4,000 to cross. Now the top price is £1,200 and some asylum seekers are negotiating a price of as little as £500 to cross. Everyone can afford to cross these days. Some asylum seekers are saying to smugglers, ‘Why should I pay you £4,000 to go to the UK when I might end up in Rwanda? I will pay you £500’. Then a deal is struck.”"

    Fantastic. "We'll send the forrin to Rwanda, that'll stop them!"

    Except that nobody goes to Rwanda. And now the price of getting here is a fraction of what it once was.

    Bravo you Tories! Couldn't have fucked this up harder if you'd tried.
    Rwanda is £350m on the bus. Both sides squabble over what is essentially a trivial sideshow because Values.

    Even if working at full capacity it might take 200-300 migrants every 2-3 months, whereas we have 60,000+ to deal with.

    The only solution is a deal with France to return every boat back to Calais.
    The solution is to have all assylum claims for Britain processed in dedicated centres overseas. No processing done in Blighty at all. Claim assylum here, you'll be taken to one of the overseas centres to have your claim processed.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,170
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    The Beloved Boris mentality is worthy of study.

    It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.

    And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.

    Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
    It is - a curious mix of celeb worship, anti-intellectualism, class deference, escapism, and short attention spans plus shallow sensibilities in the age of social media and reality tv is my best shot at explaining it.

    But I don't want to do the actual study. I'd rather try my level best to forget him.
    Boris is a classics scholar, probably was our most intellectual PM since Gordon Brown
    Dead wrong. You can coast through Oxford classics on the back of a trad prep/public school background because you are competing unhandicapped against players who are learning the bloody difficult languages for the first time
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Taz said:

    Jake Berry on Sky News. Truss to offer hope not handouts.

    And will the energy companies accept "hope" in payment for providing heating?
    The strange thing is we all know the reality is that they will need to offer massive subsidies on heating this winter. Why not get ahead of the curve and own it rather than spend the next three months saying help is a bad thing and then do a last minute u-turn?
    There is something very frivolous about this campaign. They are not addressing the very real concerns people have and are making ludicrous promises to a narrow group people that will either harm the rest of us or that they will have to break pretty soon after taking office.

    It is fundamentally unserious.

    FWIW Husband is voting Sunak. But with no enthusiasm at all. Like choosing between being infested with fleas or lice.
    Well if he will choose to stay in a party of parasites ....
    I'm a bit surprised by his continued membership to be honest. He only joined to vote "Not Boris". He votes Green in local elections and really likes the Labour councillor in Millom who is a friend, very sensible and gets things done. The last matters a lot to Husband. He knows and likes on a personal basis Trudi Harrison but says she's hopeless at getting anything done for the local area. Husband is involved in the local Civic Society and with the proposed Iron Line and other worthy voluntary causes and places a lot of store on people with sensible pragmatic solutions rather than fancy ideas and a lot of blather. He'd sack pretty much everyone at Cumbria County Council on the grounds of their general uselessness.

    I think he may have got a free pen or something when he joined. But we are cutting back our spending and, exciting as it is to have Tory leadership elections almost as often as Xmas, something's gotta give. So ....
    They are far from the only council of which that could be said, sadly.

    If I were twenty years younger I might seriously have considered trying to get into local government.
    Local authorities have had a raw deal from central government over decades, but many have not helped their own cause.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,170
    HYUFD said:

    Tres said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    The Beloved Boris mentality is worthy of study.

    It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.

    And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.

    Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
    It is - a curious mix of celeb worship, anti-intellectualism, class deference, escapism, and short attention spans plus shallow sensibilities in the age of social media and reality tv is my best shot at explaining it.

    But I don't want to do the actual study. I'd rather try my level best to forget him.
    Boris is a classics scholar, probably was our most intellectual PM since Gordon Brown
    classics is basically a step up from art history for public school bluffers
    You can't be a true intellectual and have no interest in the classics or the history of art
    Necessary vs sufficient conditions...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520
    Tres said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    The Beloved Boris mentality is worthy of study.

    It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.

    And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.

    Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
    It is - a curious mix of celeb worship, anti-intellectualism, class deference, escapism, and short attention spans plus shallow sensibilities in the age of social media and reality tv is my best shot at explaining it.

    But I don't want to do the actual study. I'd rather try my level best to forget him.
    nah I wouldn't complicate it - just some people are more gullible than the rest of us
    Well that is true - and I'm happy to leave it there - but we'd need to say more in the study to justify the funding.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,323
    CatMan said:

    It seems the Rwanda plan might have made the Channel People Smugglers drop their prices

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/aug/06/channel-smugglers-drop-prices-and-cram-more-people-on-to-boats

    "One Syrian asylum seeker told the Guardian that the smugglers had dropped their prices dramatically. “Before it was £3,000 or £4,000 to cross. Now the top price is £1,200 and some asylum seekers are negotiating a price of as little as £500 to cross. Everyone can afford to cross these days. Some asylum seekers are saying to smugglers, ‘Why should I pay you £4,000 to go to the UK when I might end up in Rwanda? I will pay you £500’. Then a deal is struck.”"

    That Adam Smith, he knew a thing or two.

    Now probably most famous for having a traffic cone on the top of his head on the Royal Mile, of course. The Chinese tourists seem obsessed with him but the locals, not so much.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,244
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    The Beloved Boris mentality is worthy of study.

    It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.

    And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.

    Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
    It is - a curious mix of celeb worship, anti-intellectualism, class deference, escapism, and short attention spans plus shallow sensibilities in the age of social media and reality tv is my best shot at explaining it.

    But I don't want to do the actual study. I'd rather try my level best to forget him.
    Boris is a classics scholar, probably was our most intellectual PM since Gordon Brown
    The competition here is Cameron and May. So when you compare Johnson with them, you may well be right. The most intellectual.... Also the most devious, the most lazy, the most self-centred... and lots of other negative categories. In short, Johnson was the worst. And not only since Gordon Bown.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    edited August 6
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    The Beloved Boris mentality is worthy of study.

    It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.

    And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.

    Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
    It is - a curious mix of celeb worship, anti-intellectualism, class deference, escapism, and short attention spans plus shallow sensibilities in the age of social media and reality tv is my best shot at explaining it.

    But I don't want to do the actual study. I'd rather try my level best to forget him.
    Boris is a classics scholar, probably was our most intellectual PM since Gordon Brown
    I don’t think you are fully grasping the concept of being an intellectual here, Mr HY?

    I could go to cookery classes but it wouldn’t make me a chef.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,734
    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Bet Rishi is wishing he'd handed out 10 of his votes to Penny.

    I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.

    He'd have lost to Penny I expect too - but it'd have been closer than it will be.
    He would have beaten The Hat and Hunt, maybe Zahawi. Lost to the rest, even bonkers Braverman.
    Yep - it's a populist right party and so whichever populist right candidate made the run off was probably going to be fav to win. Although Mordaunt doesn't quite fit that. She was more a blank canvas.

    I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.

    Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
    The Beloved Boris mentality is worthy of study.

    It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.

    And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.

    Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
    It is - a curious mix of celeb worship, anti-intellectualism, class deference, escapism, and short attention spans plus shallow sensibilities in the age of social media and reality tv is my best shot at explaining it.

    But I don't want to do the actual study. I'd rather try my level best to forget him.
    Boris is a classics scholar, probably was our most intellectual PM since Gordon Brown
    The competition here is Cameron and May. So when you compare Johnson with them, you may well be right. The most intellectual.... Also the most devious, the most lazy, the most self-centred... and lots of other negative categories. In short, Johnson was the worst. And not only since Gordon Bown.
    He was also more intellectual than Blair, Major and Thatcher, if not as hard working as Thatcher or probably not as logical. He is also likely more intellectual than Truss, Sunak and Starmer
This discussion has been closed.