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Remember Truss was 3rd place amongst CON MPs – politicalbetting.com
Remember Truss was 3rd place amongst CON MPs – politicalbetting.com
One of the problems about the Conservative party’s system for electing a leader is that it is entirely possible for the person who is chosen not to be the choice of MPs – something that looks set to happen in the current contest.
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I still don't understand what happened between the 2nd and 3rd Ballot with Mourdaunt.
1.11 Liz Truss 90%
9.8 Rishi Sunak 10%
Next Conservative leader
1.1 Liz Truss 91%
10.5 Rishi Sunak 10%
However, the slowness with which that happened is a bit of a red flag. Even MPs who agreed with la Truss weren't enthusiastic to endorse her.
With hindsight, it would have worked, but he couldn't be sure how many votes he had, how many claimed supporters were lying to him, or how many votes he needed to lend.
A bit like the difference between normal chess, where you can see all the pieces, and blitzkrieg, where you can only see your own and you don't have a clue what your opponent is up to.
Tugendhat, Shapps, Chishti, Hunt, Zahawi weren't.
Bravermann perhaps if Truss and Badenoch weren't running.
In any case Braverman and Badenoch were probably the most hardline of the leadership candidates not Truss or Sunak. Neither made the last 2
2022 10/1
2023 5/1
2024 or later 1/3
The dispersed nature of the voting was a product of all of the candidates having strong weaknesses, and the party having no clear consensus on the best way forward.
Truss managed just 14% of first choices.
Looking back, Labour's old electoral college system was a pretty good one by contrast with what we have now.
You put this in me
So now what, so now what?
Wanting, needing, waiting
For you to Trusstify my love (my love)
Hoping, praying
For you to Trusstify my love
There's a kind of chess where you can't see your opponents pieces??
How does that work?
Players sit back-to-back, with an umpire between them. Each of them has a board.
Player A just has their pieces on their board and makes their moves there. Same for player B.
The umpire has the complete game on their board, and indicates to players when its their turn to move and when their pieces have been captured.
It's as nuts as it sounds, and much more fun to watch than play, frankly.
Which city will host Eurovision Song Contest 2023?
(price a week ago in brackets)
Glasgow 3 (2.2)
Birmingham 5.5 (13)
Manchester 7 (5.6)
Leeds 17 (26)
Aberdeen 19 (26)
Belfast 19 (26)
London 19 (9)
Liverpool 20 (18)
Brighton 28 (41)
Edinburgh 28 (41)
Bristol 29 (51)
Cardiff 29 (21)
Bradford 34 (21)
Sheffield 34 (29)
Dundee 34 (34)
Newcastle 34 (34)
https://news.smarkets.com/tv-and-entertainment/where-will-eurovision-2023-be-held/
There was no final round where Mordaunt's votes were distributed between Truss and Sunak. It is entirely possible that Truss might have gotten more than 65% of Mordaunt's votes & edged ahead of Sunak, with 181 votes vs 174.
Whose pleasures depend
On the permission of another
Profound.
Preferred of two in a forced choice is somewhat different.
January 2025 must surely be a very strong contender.
They need to kick the ball, and that’s the longest grass available.
Australia's entire electoral system is similarly based on preferential voting & the current Labor government got less first preference votes (33%) vs the Coalition (36%). It doesn't make Labor an illegitimate government. Everybody accepts that Greens & other minor parties preferred a Labor government to a Coalition.
Similarly, if Truss got more of Mordaunt's votes than Sunak then that would have meant that Mordaunt's voters preferred Truss to Sunak. It doesn't call into question Truss' legitimacy as the party leader.
I made money on her, having backed her on a hunch a while ago at 66, but I actually read things wrong. I thought being untainted by Johnson association, as she was, would have been a strength.
Well it was amongst MPs but not with the members where it's very much still "Boris" rather than Johnson. And I think this is the main reason why Sunak is losing to Truss. He's seen as the traitor who knifed the Beloved. I think this is a bigger factor than Truss's populism.
According to the Environment Agency, most of England is in “prolonged dry weather” status, but the country has not yet officially entered a drought. The National Drought Group — which brings together the Environment Agency, government, water companies, the National Farmers’ Union and industry and environmental groups — is expected to meet again this month following their July meeting.
https://www.ft.com/content/5dcf3944-5f27-49a1-917e-08fee8ebe35f
How about using FPTP? Get the most votes from MPs and you're in. If you want to vote for a minor candidate to make a point, fine. If 10 minor candidates pick up votes from a total of half the electorate, that's also fine. Sure, the winner might enjoy less "legitimacy" but it's not a perfect world. At least you don't incentivise the dishonesty of "lending" votes to another candidate so as to knock out a main rival.
But Sunak was rational, decent(ish, and far too late) and (politically) wrong. Truss was stupidy loyal to a busted flush, but that was politically smart of her.
"Eurovision 2023: Cardiff out of race for song contest"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-62406786
The Titanic actually had multiple lifeboat problems. The actual spaces was the last in the line of the holes in the cheese -
1) not enough trained seamen to launch and man the boats they had.
2) no practise. A major issue was that the wooden boats flexed massively as they were loaded. As they were designed to do. But to officers and men unfamiliar with this, it seemed dangerous. So they massively under loaded the boats.
4) the plan was to load the boats by rowing to the gangway exit on the ship. But by the time they went there, the few stewards trying to control things had been overwhelmed. Fearing the boats would swamped, they towed away. This bit got kind of left out in most accounts…..
5) shortage of spaces in the boats.
The reason I’m putting all this down is that a classic flaw in policy making is to fix one real problem - not the chain of problems.
What the Titanic needed was more seamen, more automated boat launching, more boat practise. And more boats.
Most of these were implemented after the Titanic. The problem was (and still is) seamen to direct, control and undertake the evacuation - see the various modern disasters involving passenger ships.
At the moment you can smell the resigned desperation coming from him
Just like aus. No runoff required.
Driving to see my father a thought just popped in there…. Liz Truss Prime Minister.
Leaving all partisan aspects aside. Good grief what on Earth are people thinking!
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/08/06/whats-wrong-with-amnesty-internationals-conclusions-that-ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/
...As the Ukrainian Government appears to accept, every military – whether fighting for its sovereignty or preservation of its people or otherwise — must abide by IHL and be seen to be doing so. No warring party, however righteous their cause, can evade these demands. Being on the side of the angels is no defence.
But human rights organisations, especially those with the international reach of Amnesty International (AI), have a correlative obligation to ensure that trenchant allegations alleging failures are based upon a comprehensive fact-finding exercise, a proper methodological approach and conclusions that take into account the realities of a beleaguered government’s attempt to defend its population from systematic war crimes, a persecutory campaign encompassing crimes against humanity and possibly genocide....
* UK general election
* "Indyref2" (in theory - assuming the SNP run their election campaign as an 'indyref' platform)
* London mayoral election
* US Presidential election
Combined with possible economic bad times, that's going to be quite the news cycle.
It cannot be based much on either ideology or loyalty has Boris has little of either.
And the laziness, self-indulgence, immaturity and refusal to learn from mistakes of Boris cannot be denied.
Boris isn't even a means to and end anymore as he was in 2019.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/aug/06/channel-smugglers-drop-prices-and-cram-more-people-on-to-boats
"One Syrian asylum seeker told the Guardian that the smugglers had dropped their prices dramatically. “Before it was £3,000 or £4,000 to cross. Now the top price is £1,200 and some asylum seekers are negotiating a price of as little as £500 to cross. Everyone can afford to cross these days. Some asylum seekers are saying to smugglers, ‘Why should I pay you £4,000 to go to the UK when I might end up in Rwanda? I will pay you £500’. Then a deal is struck.”"
Win/win for those people as they don’t have to pay their bill and they get a free trip to somewhere nice and warm for the winter.
Priti is on the case.
Greed is one of the deadly sins that you have to pay for. The problem is that we are all having to pay the price of your sin.
The idea of us hosting Eurovision was always the most implausible element of an interesting plot....
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/06/liz-truss-handouts-cost-of-living-crisis-tax-cuts-conservative-leadership
The real question is what happens to energy companies, landlords and Councils when people, and there'll be a lot of working folk too, simply cannot pay their bills?
Something has to give.
I think he may have got a free pen or something when he joined. But we are cutting back our spending and, exciting as it is to have Tory leadership elections almost as often as Xmas, something's gotta give. So ....
Except that nobody goes to Rwanda. And now the price of getting here is a fraction of what it once was.
Bravo you Tories! Couldn't have fucked this up harder if you'd tried.
All felt strongly that Boris Johnson was extremely hardworking for the country.
They literally brought this up as a strength of his "he's worked so hard for us, he's getting on with the job etc."
Now obviously neither I nor they observe Boris Johnson's working hours... the only explanation I can think for this is that Boris has repeatedly said (and his MPs have repeatedly said) how hard he is working. Perhaps the simple lesson is that repeatedly saying something makes it true for the public.
Not an original take - but I struggle to think of other explanations.
But if you will have a leader named after an annoying, biting horse fly....
The PM 'living above the shop' is wrong imo for all sorts of reasons. I believe the PM should live a short drive or long walk from No. 10, in a flat in one of the Royal Estates.
Even if working at full capacity it might take 200-300 migrants every 2-3 months, whereas we have 60,000+ to deal with.
The only solution is a deal with France to return every boat back to Calais.
Although, I would guess it would to him, used to winging everything with the minimum of last-minute effort, have felt like very hard work indeed, since no-one is going to be PM without a lot of work coming their way. So when he said he worked hard, he surely believed it.
(Especially the William Orbit remix.)
But I don't want to do the actual study. I'd rather try my level best to forget him.
https://www.madonnashop.com/buy/justify-my-love-vhs-single/
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-38-days-when-britain-sleepwalked-into-disaster-hq3b9tlgh
https://www.economist.com/britain/2022/07/06/the-toxicity-of-boris-johnson
All she has to do in exchange for that is live with corruption and do as she is told.
Being a bit radical, as she used to be, and asking challenging questions is what we need in a democracy.
If I were twenty years younger I might seriously have considered trying to get into local government.
Local authorities have had a raw deal from central government over decades, but many have not helped their own cause.
Now probably most famous for having a traffic cone on the top of his head on the Royal Mile, of course. The Chinese tourists seem obsessed with him but the locals, not so much.
I could go to cookery classes but it wouldn’t make me a chef.