Liz takes a bit of a tumble in the betting – politicalbetting.com
Liz takes a bit of a tumble in the betting – politicalbetting.com
So far it’s been just about the worst day for Liz Truss for some time on the betting markets. As can be seen she has slipped sharply though she is still an 81% chance.
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https://www.270towin.com/news/2022/07/28/first-look-august-2-primaries_1400.html
In my own quasi-humble semi-opinion, most important races on today's ballots are primaries for US House in three districts where Republican incumbents voted to impeach Trump after Trump-inspired/led/conspired January 2021 assault on US Capitol in effort to overturn Trump's losing the 2020 presidential election.
> MI 3rd Congressional - Peter Meijer, first-term US Rep & supermarket empire scion, is opposed in Republican priamry by John Gibbs, Trump's former Assistant HUD Secretary & endorsee. Note that Democratic Campaign Committee (DCC) is running ads BOOSTING Gibbs, because they think Democrat Hillary Scholten, who lost to Meijer by six points in 2020 general, has better chance versus Trump's anointed than against Meijer.
> WA 3rd CD - Jaime Herrera Beutler is facing 8 opponents in (almost) all-mail Top Two primary, but only two matter, both also Republicans: Joe Kent, former Green Beret endorsed by Trump, and Heidi St John an evangelical religious conservative. Note that pro-JHB super-PAC is running ads attacking Kent as a former Bernie Bro (in 2016) in order to take knock down Kent's red-meat right-wing support. Since it's close to moral certainty that Top Two will be JHB and Kent, goal is to keep down Kent's vote and thus boost Herrera Beutler at the start of the general election campaign, in which Republicans will be spit, Democrats will vote for JHB (if they don't skip race with no D on ballot) and Independents will hold balance.
> WA 4th CD - Dan Newhouse is opposed by one Democrat and 6 other GOPers, including 2020 gubernatorial nominee and small town police chief Loren Culp. In this primary, superPAC backing Newhouse is running ads attacking Culp, with goal of knocking down his vote, to help ensure that Newhouse makes Top Two and possibly to knock Culp into third place and off the Fall ballot.
Personally IF yours truly had a vote in any of these races, I'd cast it for Meijer, Herrera Beutler or Newhouse. Because I'm a Democrat who puts country before party, and want to see ALL of the Republicans who had the courage to do the same at risk of their political positions and future careers.
Fact that the DCCC is trying to defeat Meijer in the primary in order to boost chances of Democrat winning in the general election, is to my way of thinking despicable.
Never have had much use for DCCC, and zero respect. They have now fallen below even THAT super-low standard.
Talking of endorsements...
https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1554250246527586308
1.23 Liz Truss 81%
5.1 Rishi Sunak 20%
Next Conservative leader
1.22 Liz Truss 82%
5.5 Rishi Sunak 18%
He public sector comments may not have been well advised for the electorate as a whole, hence her row back but for party members concerned about public sector crowding out of the private sector in parts of the North it will not have gone down so badly
Con: 34% (+2 from 21-22 July)
Lab: 35% (-4)
Lib Dem: 13% (+1)
Green: 7% (-1)
Reform UK: 3% (-1)
SNP: 5% (+1)
Tie incoming...
The Palace has caught fire 44 times since 2012, new data obtained by @CallumWilliamT
via FOI reveals.
In March 2021, a fire had to be put out in the Speaker’s House despite £9,243 in fire safety having been spent on fire prevention in the area. https://politico.eu/article/palace
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1554405469086695430?cxt=HHwWjICy3bvirZIrAAAA
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1554507822729150464
I'd bet on a Tory lead now if I were anyone here
However, she'd win after coming third in the first round of MPs, with the initial support of less than one-seventh of MPs, and with the lowest support among the membership of any new Conservative leader since this method of election was introduced.
It wouldn't be a great start.
YouGov: 1%
Opinium: 3%
Redfield: 4%
Techne: 7%
Deltapoll: 11%
ComRes: 13%
Ipsos MORI: 14%
...useful
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1554508834978336771
One can only hope it will simply be in line with their histrionic twitter and media reactions to the mildest of issues, as that would indicate its not too serious.
For instance:
https://www.thenational.scot/news/20594201.former-tory-msp-says-liz-truss-lost-vote-inappropriate-nicola-sturgeon-dig/
Ignoring a democratically elected First Minister is not a good practice to carry on from Mr Johnson.
OTOH, I hear Putin is in the market for some new arms depots. Sounds exactly like it would fit his requirements.
"Honest" Keir has proved that they're worth less than manifesto promises
Right now I care most about steadfast support for Ukraine
Truss has been resolutely anti-Russian
Sunak has allegedly been weak in his pro-Ukrainian stance
"Honest" Keir twice campaigned hard for Ukraine to not exist
She has a habit of talking about things she doesn't understand, having to walk back what she has said. It does not inspire confidence that is competent or that she is a change from BoJo.
That announcement to cut pay in the Red Wall will have gone down there very badly.
Now they've gone haywire.
Not only these but contradictory head-to-heads too.
Latest Westminster voting intention (27-28 July)
Con: 34% (+2 from 21-22 July)
Lab: 35% (-4)
Lib Dem: 13% (+1)
Green: 7% (-1)
Reform UK: 3% (-1)
SNP: 5% (+1)
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1554507822729150464?s=20&t=4DB9DY7oPzkXsaop9AyC_w
https://twitter.com/scotfoodjames/status/1554212010333814784?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1554212010333814784|twgr^9d8a5830391dc54ea8c2b908eb57a5110f9ce614|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/02/liz-truss-dismissal-of-attention-seeker-sturgeon-will-horrify-scots-says-snp
Twice
Corbyn wants, and wanted, Ukraine to accede to Russian territorial demands
Russia wants all of Ukraine
People that support or supported Corbyn should be deeply ashamed of themselves
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kyp1pHCSZIY
Robert: I too have been told to watch the next 2-3 months very carefully in China and not to rule out a black swan. Xi is so wedded to zero covid he can’t undo it without massive loss of face and as you say, the policy is now there as long as Xi is.
He’s made provincial and municipal governors perform “local” lockdowns because he didn’t have the strength to issue a national lockdown edict but has simultaneously banned them from using “dangerous” “unproven” western vaccines. And as a result he’s making Chinese poorer.
In short he’s twisted too many people’s tits to be assured of smooth passage to a third term, which is widely seen as presaging a form of life emperorship for him. So as a result a fierce power struggle is already underway. Usual style of mysterious deaths of opponents.
The military sabre rattling with Taiwan has been predictable to me for many years. At some point the Ponzi scheme of the Chinese economy led this way. What’s surprises me is the current leadership’s willingness to commit such an act of self harm and accelerate that economic reckoning.
Militarily the whole thing is a joke. They can no more take Taiwan as Putin can Kiev. Doesn’t stop this being a dangerous moment. Because whereas Kiev is an indirect NATO - Russia conflict, the U.S. would if necessary directly
involve itself in the protection of Taiwan.
So place your bets. Who leaves office (and possibly planet earth) first? Putin or Xi? Three months ago the answer seemed obviously to be Putin. Now I’m not so sure.
He meets illegally with Russian spies.
You voted for Priti Patel.
She meets illegally with Iranian spies.
We will have a Conservative leader who had publically set out "plans that would see pay dramatically cut for police, nurses and our armed forces in Cardiff and Canterbury, Teesside and Taunton during a cost of living crisis" (in the helpful words of Sunak campaign, to which Starmer says thanks). It doesn't matter that she tried to retract or that the policy won't feature in the Conservative GE manifesto, it's what she clearly wants to happen. Labour will be shouting that from the rooftops and it will be very hard to deny.
Ignoring Sturgeon's constant indyref2 shrieking is however an excellent move from a Tory PM, meanwhile actual Tory MSPs like Murdo Fraser are loving the new harder line from Truss
Kansas is - if the polls are to be believed - one of the most anti-abortion states in the US. It is also a Republican bastion, and it's holding a referendum on the same day as the Republican primaries.
Outside money and volunteers have flooded the State ahead of the referendum, which - technically - is an amendment to the State constitution which would allow it to restrict abortions.
This is a very interesting race, because it will show (broadly) how much of a motivator abortion is to voters.
One would expect a comfortable majority for the measure, not least because it doesn't prohibit abortion, and merely gives the legislature the right to rule on it. And this is also a referendum on changing the status quo.
But abortion access forces are fired up. All the evidence is that early voting has been running at 2-3x normal levels.
My rough "rule of thumb" is that something around 60:40 in favor means that abortion is motivating each side equally. While less than 55% in favor suggests it favors the Dems.
Taiwan has extensive air defences, any sizeable invasion would need to be from the sea, which gives everyone friendly enough notice to take them out. Japan, Philiippines, Korea and USA all have a lot of military assets in the area.
It really would escalate quickly once it started, and China knows this. Unlike Putin, the CCP are not totally mad.
Jeremy Corbyn wanted to share detailed forensic murder info with the murderer
Boris beat him. Thank fuck
Its possible for it to be misrepresented, but decide its not worth arguing to correct the misrepresentations, so thus ditching the policy altogether.
Redfield plus YouGov strongly hint that despite some derision at the prospect yesterday, Tarrygate has impacted Labours support. Probably certainty to vote effects I suspect as labourites back away from failure to support workers
Your explanation is like when politicians complain about the media attacking them as a reason they lost - real leaders have to overcome opponents and their arguments, if it is something they believe is worth fighting for.
So either she was weak or it was not a very good idea in the first place, as she does not care to defend it as it actually was.
But it all rather depends how desperate Xi is. He can still retire peacefully with his money, an option unavailable to Putin. But you rather fear the power has got to his head.
If Labour had announced this policy, you'd be saying "where is the money coming from, they will have to cut the pay of nurses and doctors".
Your bias is showing.
Whilst a lot of countries chose not to believe it I’m sure that if the US start seeing build up (and it’s going to take many ships, many planes, many landing craft, logistics (you would imagine the Chinese have learnt from Russia) it will firstly be all over the news and secondly the Taiwanese and neighbours are going to believe it.
So hopefully for now it’s sabre rattling.
Edit - and Ipsos reports on '100% certain to vote' , if an event impacts certainty, Mori will react strongly. Its 'all naming a party' figure was 42 to 31, thats often been historically a better figure for Labour. Their own commnentary says the lead 'may be soft'
It would be much more powerful to stick to the misrepresentation argument, if that is what it was, and so explain that is why it will be pursued.
When in government every policy decision will be challenged and misrepresented by someone - do we want them to abandon the good ones because it is 'not worth' arguing to correct misrepresentations?
Piastri confirmed for Alpine next year. But no news from him, and everything else v quiet? Hmmm
https://www.predictit.org/markets/17/US-Elections
We now have Starmer vs Johnson 2.0. Easy choice for me.
Andrew Neil will have nothing he can pull apart as it’s a great plan which she will have cleared up and represented properly and Queen Liz will be crowned PM.
Surely nobody can have a problem with this?
So Tories most seats but Starmer could form a minority government with LD support that would have more support than the Conservatives and with the Greens, Alliance and SDLP that would have more support than the Tories + DUP even without the SNP
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=34&LAB=35&LIB=13&Reform=3&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.5&SCOTLAB=24&SCOTLIB=8&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=0&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=46.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
If you cared about Ukraine you would wish that you'd voted for him too
Almost doubling VAT from 8% to 15% wasn't in the 1979 Tory manifesto either. It didn't stop Labour claiming that it would happen, to Tory denials. And it did happen.
Edit - and important to note those last 2 polls are more Lab loss than tory gain. The tories are nowhere near the 38 or 39 minimum theyd need to be biggest party (imo)
Just bear in mind: he's a list MSP, not a constituency one. He will almost always get elected whatever happens under FPTP.
Also: anti-constitutionalist, aren't you?
If you are, I might be able to forgive your youthful (relatively), ignorant support for the “people’s champion”
If not then accept your position as an enabler of Russia’s evil aggression
Your ballot is now on the way - but it will arrive with you a little later than we originally said. Please do not worry.
This is because we have taken some time to add some additional security to our ballot process which has delayed us slightly.
The UK constitution is also based on Crown in Parliament
NICOLA Sturgeon has deleted a tweet about more than 40,000 Russian soldiers being “eliminated” in Ukraine after being accused of “glorifying war”.
The First Minister posted a message about the statistic accompanied by a strong arm emoji earlier today, sparking a backlash on social media.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20595998.nicola-sturgeon-deletes-tweet-accused-glorifying-war/?ref=twtrec
I have apologised countless times for my support of Corbyn, for voting for him in elections and also in the Labour Party. It is why I voted for Starmer full well knowing he would get rid of all of his policies, ideas and people.
Now will you apologise for voting for Boris Johnson? The worst, most corrupt and terrible PM we've actually ever had? If not I will accept your position as an enabler of corruption, lying and cronyism in politics.