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Liz takes a bit of a tumble in the betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 7 in General
imageLiz takes a bit of a tumble in the betting – politicalbetting.com

So far it’s been just about the worst day for Liz Truss for some time on the betting markets. As can be seen she has slipped sharply though she is still an 81% chance.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,108
    FTP - today's US primaries - overview of what's what, including Kansas abortion referendum cited by RCS:

    https://www.270towin.com/news/2022/07/28/first-look-august-2-primaries_1400.html

    In my own quasi-humble semi-opinion, most important races on today's ballots are primaries for US House in three districts where Republican incumbents voted to impeach Trump after Trump-inspired/led/conspired January 2021 assault on US Capitol in effort to overturn Trump's losing the 2020 presidential election.

    > MI 3rd Congressional - Peter Meijer, first-term US Rep & supermarket empire scion, is opposed in Republican priamry by John Gibbs, Trump's former Assistant HUD Secretary & endorsee. Note that Democratic Campaign Committee (DCC) is running ads BOOSTING Gibbs, because they think Democrat Hillary Scholten, who lost to Meijer by six points in 2020 general, has better chance versus Trump's anointed than against Meijer.

    > WA 3rd CD - Jaime Herrera Beutler is facing 8 opponents in (almost) all-mail Top Two primary, but only two matter, both also Republicans: Joe Kent, former Green Beret endorsed by Trump, and Heidi St John an evangelical religious conservative. Note that pro-JHB super-PAC is running ads attacking Kent as a former Bernie Bro (in 2016) in order to take knock down Kent's red-meat right-wing support. Since it's close to moral certainty that Top Two will be JHB and Kent, goal is to keep down Kent's vote and thus boost Herrera Beutler at the start of the general election campaign, in which Republicans will be spit, Democrats will vote for JHB (if they don't skip race with no D on ballot) and Independents will hold balance.

    > WA 4th CD - Dan Newhouse is opposed by one Democrat and 6 other GOPers, including 2020 gubernatorial nominee and small town police chief Loren Culp. In this primary, superPAC backing Newhouse is running ads attacking Culp, with goal of knocking down his vote, to help ensure that Newhouse makes Top Two and possibly to knock Culp into third place and off the Fall ballot.

    Personally IF yours truly had a vote in any of these races, I'd cast it for Meijer, Herrera Beutler or Newhouse. Because I'm a Democrat who puts country before party, and want to see ALL of the Republicans who had the courage to do the same at risk of their political positions and future careers.

    Fact that the DCCC is trying to defeat Meijer in the primary in order to boost chances of Democrat winning in the general election, is to my way of thinking despicable.

    Never have had much use for DCCC, and zero respect. They have now fallen below even THAT super-low standard.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,108
    Liz Truss - undependable quasi-support for whatever it is she says she's currently semi-supporting.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 478

    MI 3rd Congressional - Peter Meijer, first-term US Rep & supermarket empire scion, is opposed in Republican priamry by John Gibbs, Trump's former Assistant HUD Secretary & endorsee. Note that Democratic Campaign Committee (DCC) is running ads BOOSTING Gibbs, because they think Democrat Hillary Scholten, who lost to Meijer by six points in 2020 general, has better chance versus Trump's anointed than against Meijer.

    They need to be careful, they might get what they are campaigning for.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,685
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.23 Liz Truss 81%
    5.1 Rishi Sunak 20%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.22 Liz Truss 82%
    5.5 Rishi Sunak 18%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,106
    The SNP may not like Truss' statement but could to see our potential future PM standing firm against Sturgeon, something most Unionists will welcome.

    He public sector comments may not have been well advised for the electorate as a whole, hence her row back but for party members concerned about public sector crowding out of the private sector in parts of the North it will not have gone down so badly
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,372
    Fair to say she's built up a bit of a buffer of support such that she can take a tumble. It really is remarkable dominance even considering no members vote in a Tory leadership contest has been close.
  • Latest Westminster voting intention (27-28 July)

    Con: 34% (+2 from 21-22 July)
    Lab: 35% (-4)
    Lib Dem: 13% (+1)
    Green: 7% (-1)
    Reform UK: 3% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)


    Tie incoming...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,372
    Eh, it'll be fine, I'm sure they can keep putting off a decision until the price of restoration magically becomes something that won't upset people.

    The Palace has caught fire 44 times since 2012, new data obtained by @CallumWilliamT
    via FOI reveals.

    In March 2021, a fire had to be put out in the Speaker’s House despite £9,243 in fire safety having been spent on fire prevention in the area. https://politico.eu/article/palace


    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1554405469086695430?cxt=HHwWjICy3bvirZIrAAAA
  • DriverDriver Posts: 478

    Latest Westminster voting intention (27-28 July)

    Con: 34% (+2 from 21-22 July)
    Lab: 35% (-4)
    Lib Dem: 13% (+1)
    Green: 7% (-1)
    Reform UK: 3% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)


    Tie incoming...

    Which pollster?
  • Driver said:

    Latest Westminster voting intention (27-28 July)

    Con: 34% (+2 from 21-22 July)
    Lab: 35% (-4)
    Lib Dem: 13% (+1)
    Green: 7% (-1)
    Reform UK: 3% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)


    Tie incoming...

    Which pollster?
    YouGov:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1554507822729150464

    I'd bet on a Tory lead now if I were anyone here
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,709

    Liz Truss - undependable quasi-support for whatever it is she says she's currently semi-supporting.

    Pretty much. Truss is an interesting candidate. She is intensely ideological but doesn't seem to have a clear idea what her ideology is. She is permanently stuck in her contrarian teenager phase.
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 117
    Anyone able to offer an opinion on what China's response to Pelosi arriving in Taiwan will be?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,350

    FTP - today's US primaries - overview of what's what, including Kansas abortion referendum cited by RCS:

    https://www.270towin.com/news/2022/07/28/first-look-august-2-primaries_1400.html

    In my own quasi-humble semi-opinion, most important races on today's ballots are primaries for US House in three districts where Republican incumbents voted to impeach Trump after Trump-inspired/led/conspired January 2021 assault on US Capitol in effort to overturn Trump's losing the 2020 presidential election.

    > MI 3rd Congressional - Peter Meijer, first-term US Rep & supermarket empire scion, is opposed in Republican priamry by John Gibbs, Trump's former Assistant HUD Secretary & endorsee. Note that Democratic Campaign Committee (DCC) is running ads BOOSTING Gibbs, because they think Democrat Hillary Scholten, who lost to Meijer by six points in 2020 general, has better chance versus Trump's anointed than against Meijer.

    > WA 3rd CD - Jaime Herrera Beutler is facing 8 opponents in (almost) all-mail Top Two primary, but only two matter, both also Republicans: Joe Kent, former Green Beret endorsed by Trump, and Heidi St John an evangelical religious conservative. Note that pro-JHB super-PAC is running ads attacking Kent as a former Bernie Bro (in 2016) in order to take knock down Kent's red-meat right-wing support. Since it's close to moral certainty that Top Two will be JHB and Kent, goal is to keep down Kent's vote and thus boost Herrera Beutler at the start of the general election campaign, in which Republicans will be spit, Democrats will vote for JHB (if they don't skip race with no D on ballot) and Independents will hold balance.

    > WA 4th CD - Dan Newhouse is opposed by one Democrat and 6 other GOPers, including 2020 gubernatorial nominee and small town police chief Loren Culp. In this primary, superPAC backing Newhouse is running ads attacking Culp, with goal of knocking down his vote, to help ensure that Newhouse makes Top Two and possibly to knock Culp into third place and off the Fall ballot.

    Personally IF yours truly had a vote in any of these races, I'd cast it for Meijer, Herrera Beutler or Newhouse. Because I'm a Democrat who puts country before party, and want to see ALL of the Republicans who had the courage to do the same at risk of their political positions and future careers.

    Fact that the DCCC is trying to defeat Meijer in the primary in order to boost chances of Democrat winning in the general election, is to my way of thinking despicable.

    Never have had much use for DCCC, and zero respect. They have now fallen below even THAT super-low standard.

    Agree 100%
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,087
    kle4 said:

    Fair to say she's built up a bit of a buffer of support such that she can take a tumble. It really is remarkable dominance even considering no members vote in a Tory leadership contest has been close.

    Let's suppose this does her a lot of damage, and takes her vote share from the 65-70% that seemed likely down to 50-55%. That would be a large swing, but she'd still win.

    However, she'd win after coming third in the first round of MPs, with the initial support of less than one-seventh of MPs, and with the lowest support among the membership of any new Conservative leader since this method of election was introduced.

    It wouldn't be a great start.
  • Current Labour Lead By Pollster:

    YouGov: 1%
    Opinium: 3%
    Redfield: 4%
    Techne: 7%
    Deltapoll: 11%
    ComRes: 13%
    Ipsos MORI: 14%

    ...useful

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1554508834978336771
  • Bet on a Tory lead.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,372

    Anyone able to offer an opinion on what China's response to Pelosi arriving in Taiwan will be?

    You should really have specified an 'informed opinion'.

    One can only hope it will simply be in line with their histrionic twitter and media reactions to the mildest of issues, as that would indicate its not too serious.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,292
    HYUFD said:

    The SNP may not like Truss' statement but could to see our potential future PM standing firm against Sturgeon, something most Unionists will welcome.

    He public sector comments may not have been well advised for the electorate as a whole, hence her row back but for party members concerned about public sector crowding out of the private sector in parts of the North it will not have gone down so badly

    Not just the SNP. Quite a few people of other parties, including the "Conservative" one, have taken it very badly.

    For instance:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20594201.former-tory-msp-says-liz-truss-lost-vote-inappropriate-nicola-sturgeon-dig/

    Ignoring a democratically elected First Minister is not a good practice to carry on from Mr Johnson.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,530
    edited August 2
    kle4 said:

    Eh, it'll be fine, I'm sure they can keep putting off a decision until the price of restoration magically becomes something that won't upset people.

    The Palace has caught fire 44 times since 2012, new data obtained by @CallumWilliamT
    via FOI reveals.

    In March 2021, a fire had to be put out in the Speaker’s House despite £9,243 in fire safety having been spent on fire prevention in the area. https://politico.eu/article/palace


    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1554405469086695430?cxt=HHwWjICy3bvirZIrAAAA

    Good grief.

    OTOH, I hear Putin is in the market for some new arms depots. Sounds exactly like it would fit his requirements.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,350
    I don't care at all about leadership election promises

    "Honest" Keir has proved that they're worth less than manifesto promises

    Right now I care most about steadfast support for Ukraine

    Truss has been resolutely anti-Russian

    Sunak has allegedly been weak in his pro-Ukrainian stance

    "Honest" Keir twice campaigned hard for Ukraine to not exist
  • What this shows us that the old Liz Truss is still very much there.

    She has a habit of talking about things she doesn't understand, having to walk back what she has said. It does not inspire confidence that is competent or that she is a change from BoJo.

    That announcement to cut pay in the Red Wall will have gone down there very badly.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,811

    Current Labour Lead By Pollster:

    YouGov: 1%
    Opinium: 3%
    Redfield: 4%
    Techne: 7%
    Deltapoll: 11%
    ComRes: 13%
    Ipsos MORI: 14%

    ...useful

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1554508834978336771

    Yes. The polls seemed to settle at around 6-7 point lead for a while.
    Now they've gone haywire.
    Not only these but contradictory head-to-heads too.
  • I don't care at all about leadership election promises

    "Honest" Keir has proved that they're worth less than manifesto promises

    Right now I care most about steadfast support for Ukraine

    Truss has been resolutely anti-Russian

    Sunak has allegedly been weak in his pro-Ukrainian stance

    "Honest" Keir twice campaigned hard for Ukraine to not exist

    Okay...?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,294
    Driver said:

    MI 3rd Congressional - Peter Meijer, first-term US Rep & supermarket empire scion, is opposed in Republican priamry by John Gibbs, Trump's former Assistant HUD Secretary & endorsee. Note that Democratic Campaign Committee (DCC) is running ads BOOSTING Gibbs, because they think Democrat Hillary Scholten, who lost to Meijer by six points in 2020 general, has better chance versus Trump's anointed than against Meijer.

    They need to be careful, they might get what they are campaigning for.
    Dems actively funding their favoured opponent Republican in primaries, couldn’t possibly backfire on them come November. Definitely, absolutely not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,372

    kle4 said:

    Fair to say she's built up a bit of a buffer of support such that she can take a tumble. It really is remarkable dominance even considering no members vote in a Tory leadership contest has been close.

    Let's suppose this does her a lot of damage, and takes her vote share from the 65-70% that seemed likely down to 50-55%. That would be a large swing, but she'd still win.

    However, she'd win after coming third in the first round of MPs, with the initial support of less than one-seventh of MPs, and with the lowest support among the membership of any new Conservative leader since this method of election was introduced.

    It wouldn't be a great start.
    I think the third in the first round thing is not that big a deal. I mean, it was a very wide field after all. Even coming second it was pretty close, for all we know she might have cleaned up amongst Mordaunt's supporters.
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 117
    Sandpit said:

    Anyone able to offer an opinion on what China's response to Pelosi arriving in Taiwan will be?

    Lots of shouting, a few military exercises, than back to the Covid lockdowns.
    Any chance of invasion of Taiwan?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,106
    @YouGov
    Latest Westminster voting intention (27-28 July)

    Con: 34% (+2 from 21-22 July)
    Lab: 35% (-4)
    Lib Dem: 13% (+1)
    Green: 7% (-1)
    Reform UK: 3% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1554507822729150464?s=20&t=4DB9DY7oPzkXsaop9AyC_w
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    kle4 said:

    Eh, it'll be fine, I'm sure they can keep putting off a decision until the price of restoration magically becomes something that won't upset people.

    The Palace has caught fire 44 times since 2012, new data obtained by @CallumWilliamT
    via FOI reveals.

    In March 2021, a fire had to be put out in the Speaker’s House despite £9,243 in fire safety having been spent on fire prevention in the area. https://politico.eu/article/palace


    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1554405469086695430?cxt=HHwWjICy3bvirZIrAAAA

    They just keep arson around until it all goes wrong.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,292
    edited August 2
    HYUFD said:

    The SNP may not like Truss' statement but could to see our potential future PM standing firm against Sturgeon, something most Unionists will welcome.

    He public sector comments may not have been well advised for the electorate as a whole, hence her row back but for party members concerned about public sector crowding out of the private sector in parts of the North it will not have gone down so badly

    And as for supposed attention seeking by the First Minister, I'm rather sharply reminded by this tweet that others do it conspicuously -

    https://twitter.com/scotfoodjames/status/1554212010333814784?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1554212010333814784|twgr^9d8a5830391dc54ea8c2b908eb57a5110f9ce614|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/02/liz-truss-dismissal-of-attention-seeker-sturgeon-will-horrify-scots-says-snp
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,350

    I don't care at all about leadership election promises

    "Honest" Keir has proved that they're worth less than manifesto promises

    Right now I care most about steadfast support for Ukraine

    Truss has been resolutely anti-Russian

    Sunak has allegedly been weak in his pro-Ukrainian stance

    "Honest" Keir twice campaigned hard for Ukraine to not exist

    Okay...?
    He tried to make Corbyn Prime Minister

    Twice

    Corbyn wants, and wanted, Ukraine to accede to Russian territorial demands

    Russia wants all of Ukraine

    People that support or supported Corbyn should be deeply ashamed of themselves
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,258
    FF43 said:

    Liz Truss - undependable quasi-support for whatever it is she says she's currently semi-supporting.

    Pretty much. Truss is an interesting candidate. She is intensely ideological but doesn't seem to have a clear idea what her ideology is. She is permanently stuck in her contrarian teenager phase.
    I don't really agree, but that conjured up an image of Liz Truss as Morwenna Banks' little girl character:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kyp1pHCSZIY
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,438
    @rcs1000

    Robert: I too have been told to watch the next 2-3 months very carefully in China and not to rule out a black swan. Xi is so wedded to zero covid he can’t undo it without massive loss of face and as you say, the policy is now there as long as Xi is.

    He’s made provincial and municipal governors perform “local” lockdowns because he didn’t have the strength to issue a national lockdown edict but has simultaneously banned them from using “dangerous” “unproven” western vaccines. And as a result he’s making Chinese poorer.

    In short he’s twisted too many people’s tits to be assured of smooth passage to a third term, which is widely seen as presaging a form of life emperorship for him. So as a result a fierce power struggle is already underway. Usual style of mysterious deaths of opponents.

    The military sabre rattling with Taiwan has been predictable to me for many years. At some point the Ponzi scheme of the Chinese economy led this way. What’s surprises me is the current leadership’s willingness to commit such an act of self harm and accelerate that economic reckoning.

    Militarily the whole thing is a joke. They can no more take Taiwan as Putin can Kiev. Doesn’t stop this being a dangerous moment. Because whereas Kiev is an indirect NATO - Russia conflict, the U.S. would if necessary directly
    involve itself in the protection of Taiwan.

    So place your bets. Who leaves office (and possibly planet earth) first? Putin or Xi? Three months ago the answer seemed obviously to be Putin. Now I’m not so sure.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,334
    edited August 2

    I don't care at all about leadership election promises

    "Honest" Keir has proved that they're worth less than manifesto promises

    Right now I care most about steadfast support for Ukraine

    Truss has been resolutely anti-Russian

    Sunak has allegedly been weak in his pro-Ukrainian stance

    "Honest" Keir twice campaigned hard for Ukraine to not exist

    Okay...?
    He tried to make Corbyn Prime Minister

    Twice

    Corbyn wants, and wanted, Ukraine to accede to Russian territorial demands

    Russia wants all of Ukraine

    People that support or supported Corbyn should be deeply ashamed of themselves
    You voted for Boris Johnson.

    He meets illegally with Russian spies.

    You voted for Priti Patel.

    She meets illegally with Iranian spies.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,716
    HYUFD said:

    @YouGov
    Latest Westminster voting intention (27-28 July)

    Con: 34% (+2 from 21-22 July)
    Lab: 35% (-4)
    Lib Dem: 13% (+1)
    Green: 7% (-1)
    Reform UK: 3% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1554507822729150464?s=20&t=4DB9DY7oPzkXsaop9AyC_w

    Nearly EIGHT months without any Tory poll leads.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 478

    What this shows us that the old Liz Truss is still very much there.

    She has a habit of talking about things she doesn't understand, having to walk back what she has said. It does not inspire confidence that is competent or that she is a change from BoJo.

    That announcement to cut pay in the Red Wall will have gone down there very badly.

    The policy has been ditched, can everyone please stop lying about it now?
  • Driver said:

    What this shows us that the old Liz Truss is still very much there.

    She has a habit of talking about things she doesn't understand, having to walk back what she has said. It does not inspire confidence that is competent or that she is a change from BoJo.

    That announcement to cut pay in the Red Wall will have gone down there very badly.

    The policy has been ditched, can everyone please stop lying about it now?
    Thanks for chiming in Liz.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,864
    She's a still sho-in for the Tory leadership, so what matters more is that her stance on levelling down public sector pay in the regions will come back to haunt her at the GE. A gift for Labour in red wall seats and many more besides.

    We will have a Conservative leader who had publically set out "plans that would see pay dramatically cut for police, nurses and our armed forces in Cardiff and Canterbury, Teesside and Taunton during a cost of living crisis" (in the helpful words of Sunak campaign, to which Starmer says thanks). It doesn't matter that she tried to retract or that the policy won't feature in the Conservative GE manifesto, it's what she clearly wants to happen. Labour will be shouting that from the rooftops and it will be very hard to deny.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,106
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The SNP may not like Truss' statement but could to see our potential future PM standing firm against Sturgeon, something most Unionists will welcome.

    He public sector comments may not have been well advised for the electorate as a whole, hence her row back but for party members concerned about public sector crowding out of the private sector in parts of the North it will not have gone down so badly

    Not just the SNP. Quite a few people of other parties, including the "Conservative" one, have taken it very badly.

    For instance:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20594201.former-tory-msp-says-liz-truss-lost-vote-inappropriate-nicola-sturgeon-dig/

    Ignoring a democratically elected First Minister is not a good practice to carry on from Mr Johnson.
    You manage to find 1 ex Tory MSP who has not been at Holyrood for 6 years.

    Ignoring Sturgeon's constant indyref2 shrieking is however an excellent move from a Tory PM, meanwhile actual Tory MSPs like Murdo Fraser are loving the new harder line from Truss
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,350
    The most consequential election today is almost certainly the Kansas abortion referendum.

    Kansas is - if the polls are to be believed - one of the most anti-abortion states in the US. It is also a Republican bastion, and it's holding a referendum on the same day as the Republican primaries.

    Outside money and volunteers have flooded the State ahead of the referendum, which - technically - is an amendment to the State constitution which would allow it to restrict abortions.

    This is a very interesting race, because it will show (broadly) how much of a motivator abortion is to voters.

    One would expect a comfortable majority for the measure, not least because it doesn't prohibit abortion, and merely gives the legislature the right to rule on it. And this is also a referendum on changing the status quo.

    But abortion access forces are fired up. All the evidence is that early voting has been running at 2-3x normal levels.

    My rough "rule of thumb" is that something around 60:40 in favor means that abortion is motivating each side equally. While less than 55% in favor suggests it favors the Dems.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,372
    Driver said:

    What this shows us that the old Liz Truss is still very much there.

    She has a habit of talking about things she doesn't understand, having to walk back what she has said. It does not inspire confidence that is competent or that she is a change from BoJo.

    That announcement to cut pay in the Red Wall will have gone down there very badly.

    The policy has been ditched, can everyone please stop lying about it now?
    Was it ditched, or was it misrepresented? I'm confused, as if it was the latter then there would obviously be no reason to ditch it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,294

    Sandpit said:

    Anyone able to offer an opinion on what China's response to Pelosi arriving in Taiwan will be?

    Lots of shouting, a few military exercises, than back to the Covid lockdowns.
    Any chance of invasion of Taiwan?
    Personally I can’t see it.

    Taiwan has extensive air defences, any sizeable invasion would need to be from the sea, which gives everyone friendly enough notice to take them out. Japan, Philiippines, Korea and USA all have a lot of military assets in the area.

    It really would escalate quickly once it started, and China knows this. Unlike Putin, the CCP are not totally mad.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 478

    She's a still sho-in for the Tory leadership, so what matters more is that her stance on levelling down public sector pay in the regions will come back to haunt her at the GE. A gift for Labour in red wall seats and many more besides.

    We will have a Conservative leader who had publically set out "plans that would see pay dramatically cut for police, nurses and our armed forces in Cardiff and Canterbury, Teesside and Taunton during a cost of living crisis" (in the helpful words of Sunak campaign, to which Starmer says thanks). It doesn't matter that she tried to retract or that the policy won't feature in the Conservative GE manifesto, it's what she clearly wants to happen. Labour will be shouting that from the rooftops and it will be very hard to deny.


    If Sir Keir wants to lie about Tory proposed policies, I'm sure they'll be happy to return the favour if he ever comes up with any.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,406

    Sandpit said:

    Anyone able to offer an opinion on what China's response to Pelosi arriving in Taiwan will be?

    Lots of shouting, a few military exercises, than back to the Covid lockdowns.
    Any chance of invasion of Taiwan?
    If I was Xi, boss of the CMC, I would wonder if the weapons that the PLA is armed with — many of which will be of similar quality to, or derived from Russian designs — are really adequate for a war with any country armed by or supported by the USA. And if Xi isn't thinking about that he is as big as berk as Putin, and that is very big on the berk scale.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,350

    I don't care at all about leadership election promises

    "Honest" Keir has proved that they're worth less than manifesto promises

    Right now I care most about steadfast support for Ukraine

    Truss has been resolutely anti-Russian

    Sunak has allegedly been weak in his pro-Ukrainian stance

    "Honest" Keir twice campaigned hard for Ukraine to not exist

    Okay...?
    He tried to make Corbyn Prime Minister

    Twice

    Corbyn wants, and wanted, Ukraine to accede to Russian territorial demands

    Russia wants all of Ukraine

    People that support or supported Corbyn should be deeply ashamed of themselves
    You voted for Boris Johnson.

    He meets illegally with Russian spies.

    You voted for Priti Patel.

    She meets illegally with Iranian spies.
    What are the pro Russian/Iranian policies that either have implemented, or even tried to, during their times in office?

    Jeremy Corbyn wanted to share detailed forensic murder info with the murderer

    Boris beat him. Thank fuck
  • What's weird is that salaries already are linked to the region they're in, at least if that region is London.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 478
    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    What this shows us that the old Liz Truss is still very much there.

    She has a habit of talking about things she doesn't understand, having to walk back what she has said. It does not inspire confidence that is competent or that she is a change from BoJo.

    That announcement to cut pay in the Red Wall will have gone down there very badly.

    The policy has been ditched, can everyone please stop lying about it now?
    Was it ditched, or was it misrepresented? I'm confused, as if it was the latter then there would obviously be no reason to ditch it.
    It was obvious that the lies about the policy would continue, so the policy had to be ditched, because of the great curse of contemporary politics: "if you're explaining, you're losing".
  • kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    What this shows us that the old Liz Truss is still very much there.

    She has a habit of talking about things she doesn't understand, having to walk back what she has said. It does not inspire confidence that is competent or that she is a change from BoJo.

    That announcement to cut pay in the Red Wall will have gone down there very badly.

    The policy has been ditched, can everyone please stop lying about it now?
    Was it ditched, or was it misrepresented? I'm confused, as if it was the latter then there would obviously be no reason to ditch it.
    Both can be true simultaneously.

    Its possible for it to be misrepresented, but decide its not worth arguing to correct the misrepresentations, so thus ditching the policy altogether.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,864
    Driver said:

    What this shows us that the old Liz Truss is still very much there.

    She has a habit of talking about things she doesn't understand, having to walk back what she has said. It does not inspire confidence that is competent or that she is a change from BoJo.

    That announcement to cut pay in the Red Wall will have gone down there very badly.

    The policy has been ditched, can everyone please stop lying about it now?
    The intention hasn't been ditched, just the willingness to admit to the policy before a leadership election or general election.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 4,190
    edited August 2
    YouGov have tended to give Labour the low end scores but 35 is the lowest Labour VI since the YouGov of Dec 1-2 2021.
    Redfield plus YouGov strongly hint that despite some derision at the prospect yesterday, Tarrygate has impacted Labours support. Probably certainty to vote effects I suspect as labourites back away from failure to support workers
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,350
    glw said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anyone able to offer an opinion on what China's response to Pelosi arriving in Taiwan will be?

    Lots of shouting, a few military exercises, than back to the Covid lockdowns.
    Any chance of invasion of Taiwan?
    If I was Xi, boss of the CMC, I would wonder if the weapons that the PLA is armed with — many of which will be of similar quality to, or derived from Russian designs — are really adequate for a war with any country armed by or supported by the USA. And if Xi isn't thinking about that he is as big as berk as Putin, and that is very big on the berk scale.
    Invading Taiwan is also a much tougher ask than invading Ukraine due to the 100 miles of ocean between them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,106
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anyone able to offer an opinion on what China's response to Pelosi arriving in Taiwan will be?

    Lots of shouting, a few military exercises, than back to the Covid lockdowns.
    Any chance of invasion of Taiwan?
    Personally I can’t see it.

    Taiwan has extensive air defences, any sizeable invasion would need to be from the sea, which gives everyone friendly enough notice to take them out. Japan, Philiippines, Korea and USA all have a lot of military assets in the area.

    It really would escalate quickly once it started, and China knows this. Unlike Putin, the CCP are not totally mad.
    I note in the end Beijing just made disapproving statements rather than actually sending jets to take on Pelosi's plane and escort as it landed. Getting her out though still to come
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,372
    Driver said:

    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    What this shows us that the old Liz Truss is still very much there.

    She has a habit of talking about things she doesn't understand, having to walk back what she has said. It does not inspire confidence that is competent or that she is a change from BoJo.

    That announcement to cut pay in the Red Wall will have gone down there very badly.

    The policy has been ditched, can everyone please stop lying about it now?
    Was it ditched, or was it misrepresented? I'm confused, as if it was the latter then there would obviously be no reason to ditch it.
    It was obvious that the lies about the policy would continue, so the policy had to be ditched, because of the great curse of contemporary politics: "if you're explaining, you're losing".
    So the argument is that Truss is incredibly weak? Since rather than use the goodwill she has through a large lead with members to explain the policy, she ditched a good policy instead?

    Your explanation is like when politicians complain about the media attacking them as a reason they lost - real leaders have to overcome opponents and their arguments, if it is something they believe is worth fighting for.

    So either she was weak or it was not a very good idea in the first place, as she does not care to defend it as it actually was.
  • YouGov have tended to give Labour the low end scores but 35 is the lowest Labour VI since the YouGov of Dec 1-2 2021.
    Redfield plus YouGov strongly hint that despite some derision at the prospect yesterday, Tarrygate has impacted Labours support. Probably certainty to vote effects I suspect as labourites back away from failure to support workers

    IPSOS overlaps and has 13 point lead, explain that?
  • I don't care at all about leadership election promises

    "Honest" Keir has proved that they're worth less than manifesto promises

    Right now I care most about steadfast support for Ukraine

    Truss has been resolutely anti-Russian

    Sunak has allegedly been weak in his pro-Ukrainian stance

    "Honest" Keir twice campaigned hard for Ukraine to not exist

    Okay...?
    He tried to make Corbyn Prime Minister

    Twice

    Corbyn wants, and wanted, Ukraine to accede to Russian territorial demands

    Russia wants all of Ukraine

    People that support or supported Corbyn should be deeply ashamed of themselves
    You voted for Boris Johnson.

    He meets illegally with Russian spies.

    You voted for Priti Patel.

    She meets illegally with Iranian spies.
    What are the pro Russian/Iranian policies that either have implemented, or even tried to, during their times in office?

    Jeremy Corbyn wanted to share detailed forensic murder info with the murderer

    Boris beat him. Thank fuck
    Boris Johnson is the worst PM in British history. Congratulations on voting for that
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,350
    moonshine said:

    @rcs1000

    Robert: I too have been told to watch the next 2-3 months very carefully in China and not to rule out a black swan. Xi is so wedded to zero covid he can’t undo it without massive loss of face and as you say, the policy is now there as long as Xi is.

    He’s made provincial and municipal governors perform “local” lockdowns because he didn’t have the strength to issue a national lockdown edict but has simultaneously banned them from using “dangerous” “unproven” western vaccines. And as a result he’s making Chinese poorer.

    In short he’s twisted too many people’s tits to be assured of smooth passage to a third term, which is widely seen as presaging a form of life emperorship for him. So as a result a fierce power struggle is already underway. Usual style of mysterious deaths of opponents.

    The military sabre rattling with Taiwan has been predictable to me for many years. At some point the Ponzi scheme of the Chinese economy led this way. What’s surprises me is the current leadership’s willingness to commit such an act of self harm and accelerate that economic reckoning.

    Militarily the whole thing is a joke. They can no more take Taiwan as Putin can Kiev. Doesn’t stop this being a dangerous moment. Because whereas Kiev is an indirect NATO - Russia conflict, the U.S. would if necessary directly
    involve itself in the protection of Taiwan.

    So place your bets. Who leaves office (and possibly planet earth) first? Putin or Xi? Three months ago the answer seemed obviously to be Putin. Now I’m not so sure.

    Also, China's nuclear weapons probably work.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,258
    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    What this shows us that the old Liz Truss is still very much there.

    She has a habit of talking about things she doesn't understand, having to walk back what she has said. It does not inspire confidence that is competent or that she is a change from BoJo.

    That announcement to cut pay in the Red Wall will have gone down there very badly.

    The policy has been ditched, can everyone please stop lying about it now?
    Was it ditched, or was it misrepresented? I'm confused, as if it was the latter then there would obviously be no reason to ditch it.
    It was misrepresented and it was ditched. Misrepresented because people implied she wanted to cut nurses' pay, and ditched because she didn't want it to turn into a dementia tax moment.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,279
    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    What this shows us that the old Liz Truss is still very much there.

    She has a habit of talking about things she doesn't understand, having to walk back what she has said. It does not inspire confidence that is competent or that she is a change from BoJo.

    That announcement to cut pay in the Red Wall will have gone down there very badly.

    The policy has been ditched, can everyone please stop lying about it now?
    Was it ditched, or was it misrepresented? I'm confused, as if it was the latter then there would obviously be no reason to ditch it.
    It was obvious that the lies about the policy would continue, so the policy had to be ditched, because of the great curse of contemporary politics: "if you're explaining, you're losing".
    So the argument is that Truss is incredibly weak? Since rather than use the goodwill she has through a large lead with members to explain the policy, she ditched a good policy instead?

    Your explanation is like when politicians complain about the media attacking them as a reason they lost - real leaders have to overcome opponents and their arguments, if it is something they believe is worth fighting for.

    So either she was weak or it was not a very good idea in the first place, as she does not care to defend it as it actually was.
    She either had to u-turn or die on the hill of regional pay. Just not worth it for the furore, it's something that would take ages to have any effect whereas the Tory leadership election is called in about a month's time.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,438
    rcs1000 said:

    glw said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anyone able to offer an opinion on what China's response to Pelosi arriving in Taiwan will be?

    Lots of shouting, a few military exercises, than back to the Covid lockdowns.
    Any chance of invasion of Taiwan?
    If I was Xi, boss of the CMC, I would wonder if the weapons that the PLA is armed with — many of which will be of similar quality to, or derived from Russian designs — are really adequate for a war with any country armed by or supported by the USA. And if Xi isn't thinking about that he is as big as berk as Putin, and that is very big on the berk scale.
    Invading Taiwan is also a much tougher ask than invading Ukraine due to the 100 miles of ocean between them.
    Taiwan has also spent 7 decades turning the whole island into a medieval keep. It can withstand not only direct attack but also a long term naval siege.

    But it all rather depends how desperate Xi is. He can still retire peacefully with his money, an option unavailable to Putin. But you rather fear the power has got to his head.

  • kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    What this shows us that the old Liz Truss is still very much there.

    She has a habit of talking about things she doesn't understand, having to walk back what she has said. It does not inspire confidence that is competent or that she is a change from BoJo.

    That announcement to cut pay in the Red Wall will have gone down there very badly.

    The policy has been ditched, can everyone please stop lying about it now?
    Was it ditched, or was it misrepresented? I'm confused, as if it was the latter then there would obviously be no reason to ditch it.
    It was misrepresented and it was ditched. Misrepresented because people implied she wanted to cut nurses' pay, and ditched because she didn't want it to turn into a dementia tax moment.
    Let's play my favourite game.

    If Labour had announced this policy, you'd be saying "where is the money coming from, they will have to cut the pay of nurses and doctors".

    Your bias is showing.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,466
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anyone able to offer an opinion on what China's response to Pelosi arriving in Taiwan will be?

    Lots of shouting, a few military exercises, than back to the Covid lockdowns.
    Any chance of invasion of Taiwan?
    Personally I can’t see it.

    Taiwan has extensive air defences, any sizeable invasion would need to be from the sea, which gives everyone friendly enough notice to take them out. Japan, Philiippines, Korea and USA all have a lot of military assets in the area.

    It really would escalate quickly once it started, and China knows this. Unlike Putin, the CCP are not totally mad.
    The one positive thing at the moment is that Russian troop build ups were watched and advertised by the US and UK as to invade a country is very hard to do without intelligence agencies watching it in real time.

    Whilst a lot of countries chose not to believe it I’m sure that if the US start seeing build up (and it’s going to take many ships, many planes, many landing craft, logistics (you would imagine the Chinese have learnt from Russia) it will firstly be all over the news and secondly the Taiwanese and neighbours are going to believe it.

    So hopefully for now it’s sabre rattling.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 4,190
    edited August 2

    YouGov have tended to give Labour the low end scores but 35 is the lowest Labour VI since the YouGov of Dec 1-2 2021.
    Redfield plus YouGov strongly hint that despite some derision at the prospect yesterday, Tarrygate has impacted Labours support. Probably certainty to vote effects I suspect as labourites back away from failure to support workers

    IPSOS overlaps and has 13 point lead, explain that?
    Ipsos fieldwork was 21st to 27th. Almost entirely pre Tarry. And the earlier part of that 21 to 27 was when Comres and Deltapoll reported double digit leads too.
    Edit - and Ipsos reports on '100% certain to vote' , if an event impacts certainty, Mori will react strongly. Its 'all naming a party' figure was 42 to 31, thats often been historically a better figure for Labour. Their own commnentary says the lead 'may be soft'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,372

    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    What this shows us that the old Liz Truss is still very much there.

    She has a habit of talking about things she doesn't understand, having to walk back what she has said. It does not inspire confidence that is competent or that she is a change from BoJo.

    That announcement to cut pay in the Red Wall will have gone down there very badly.

    The policy has been ditched, can everyone please stop lying about it now?
    Was it ditched, or was it misrepresented? I'm confused, as if it was the latter then there would obviously be no reason to ditch it.
    Both can be true simultaneously.

    Its possible for it to be misrepresented, but decide its not worth arguing to correct the misrepresentations, so thus ditching the policy altogether.
    Yes, but to do that is to admit the policy is not worth defending and pursuing. By going so hard on the misrepresentation angle the argument appears to be it remains a good policy, but she won't bother to do it - and how is that a good thing?

    It would be much more powerful to stick to the misrepresentation argument, if that is what it was, and so explain that is why it will be pursued.

    When in government every policy decision will be challenged and misrepresented by someone - do we want them to abandon the good ones because it is 'not worth' arguing to correct misrepresentations?
  • YouGov have tended to give Labour the low end scores but 35 is the lowest Labour VI since the YouGov of Dec 1-2 2021.
    Redfield plus YouGov strongly hint that despite some derision at the prospect yesterday, Tarrygate has impacted Labours support. Probably certainty to vote effects I suspect as labourites back away from failure to support workers

    IPSOS overlaps and has 13 point lead, explain that?
    Ipsos fieldwork was 21st to 27th. Almost entirely pre Tarry. And the earlier part of that 21 to 27 was when Comres and Deltapoll reported double digit leads too
    We need another poll to confirm but a possibility yes.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,742

    Latest Westminster voting intention (27-28 July)

    Con: 34% (+2 from 21-22 July)
    Lab: 35% (-4)
    Lib Dem: 13% (+1)
    Green: 7% (-1)
    Reform UK: 3% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)


    Tie incoming...

    Jeez I worry whether together with the recent pandemic there’s also a virus of stupidity effecting the country . At this point the Tories could bring in a euthanasia policy on over 80s to relieve pressure on the NHS and still the blue rinses will be cheering on this loathsome government.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,215
    For F1 fans..

    Piastri confirmed for Alpine next year. But no news from him, and everything else v quiet? Hmmm
  • nico679 said:

    Latest Westminster voting intention (27-28 July)

    Con: 34% (+2 from 21-22 July)
    Lab: 35% (-4)
    Lib Dem: 13% (+1)
    Green: 7% (-1)
    Reform UK: 3% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)


    Tie incoming...

    Jeez I worry whether together with the recent pandemic there’s also a virus of stupidity effecting the country . At this point the Tories could bring in a euthanasia policy on over 80s to relieve pressure on the NHS and still the blue rinses will be cheering on this loathsome government.
    Look mate this is really not on. We convince people with policies and ideas, people are not stupid because they don't want to vote for us. We are stupid for not appealing to them.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 8,829

    YouGov have tended to give Labour the low end scores but 35 is the lowest Labour VI since the YouGov of Dec 1-2 2021.
    Redfield plus YouGov strongly hint that despite some derision at the prospect yesterday, Tarrygate has impacted Labours support. Probably certainty to vote effects I suspect as labourites back away from failure to support workers

    IPSOS overlaps and has 13 point lead, explain that?
    Doesn’t need explaining really. There is always noise in data and we have two extremes represented. They are just samples, not the whole data (I.e. the entire voting public) and it’s possible to land with a set that does not well represent the whole.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,372
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    What this shows us that the old Liz Truss is still very much there.

    She has a habit of talking about things she doesn't understand, having to walk back what she has said. It does not inspire confidence that is competent or that she is a change from BoJo.

    That announcement to cut pay in the Red Wall will have gone down there very badly.

    The policy has been ditched, can everyone please stop lying about it now?
    Was it ditched, or was it misrepresented? I'm confused, as if it was the latter then there would obviously be no reason to ditch it.
    It was obvious that the lies about the policy would continue, so the policy had to be ditched, because of the great curse of contemporary politics: "if you're explaining, you're losing".
    So the argument is that Truss is incredibly weak? Since rather than use the goodwill she has through a large lead with members to explain the policy, she ditched a good policy instead?

    Your explanation is like when politicians complain about the media attacking them as a reason they lost - real leaders have to overcome opponents and their arguments, if it is something they believe is worth fighting for.

    So either she was weak or it was not a very good idea in the first place, as she does not care to defend it as it actually was.
    She either had to u-turn or die on the hill of regional pay. Just not worth it for the furore, it's something that would take ages to have any effect whereas the Tory leadership election is called in about a month's time.
    That's fine if she had to u-turn as it would go down like a sack of manure, but this is like a typical 'I'm stupid defence' politicians use, if she wants to simultaneously say it was a great idea but she won't do it because it's too much hassle to explain.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,607
    edited August 2
    PredictIt has No Change to Kansas abortion as marginal favourite - 54% chance of winning.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/17/US-Elections
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,294
    edited August 2

    For F1 fans..

    Piastri confirmed for Alpine next year. But no news from him, and everything else v quiet? Hmmm

    Definitely something up. The ‘silly season’ just got very silly.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,742

    nico679 said:

    Latest Westminster voting intention (27-28 July)

    Con: 34% (+2 from 21-22 July)
    Lab: 35% (-4)
    Lib Dem: 13% (+1)
    Green: 7% (-1)
    Reform UK: 3% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)


    Tie incoming...

    Jeez I worry whether together with the recent pandemic there’s also a virus of stupidity effecting the country . At this point the Tories could bring in a euthanasia policy on over 80s to relieve pressure on the NHS and still the blue rinses will be cheering on this loathsome government.
    Look mate this is really not on. We convince people with policies and ideas, people are not stupid because they don't want to vote for us. We are stupid for not appealing to them.
    If the last 12 years hasn’t convinced them then I doubt much will now . The nation is in a sorry state and the architects of that are being rewarded . A sad state of affairs .
  • Sandpit said:

    I don't care at all about leadership election promises

    "Honest" Keir has proved that they're worth less than manifesto promises

    Right now I care most about steadfast support for Ukraine

    Truss has been resolutely anti-Russian

    Sunak has allegedly been weak in his pro-Ukrainian stance

    "Honest" Keir twice campaigned hard for Ukraine to not exist

    Okay...?
    He tried to make Corbyn Prime Minister

    Twice

    Corbyn wants, and wanted, Ukraine to accede to Russian territorial demands

    Russia wants all of Ukraine

    People that support or supported Corbyn should be deeply ashamed of themselves
    You voted for Boris Johnson.

    He meets illegally with Russian spies.

    You voted for Priti Patel.

    She meets illegally with Iranian spies.
    What are the pro Russian/Iranian policies that either have implemented, or even tried to, during their times in office?

    Jeremy Corbyn wanted to share detailed forensic murder info with the murderer

    Boris beat him. Thank fuck
    Boris Johnson is the worst PM in British history. Congratulations on voting for that
    Only Jeremy Corbyn would have been worse. A lot worse. Doubly so for Ukraine.
    The good news is that they are both gone.

    We now have Starmer vs Johnson 2.0. Easy choice for me.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,466
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    What this shows us that the old Liz Truss is still very much there.

    She has a habit of talking about things she doesn't understand, having to walk back what she has said. It does not inspire confidence that is competent or that she is a change from BoJo.

    That announcement to cut pay in the Red Wall will have gone down there very badly.

    The policy has been ditched, can everyone please stop lying about it now?
    Was it ditched, or was it misrepresented? I'm confused, as if it was the latter then there would obviously be no reason to ditch it.
    It was obvious that the lies about the policy would continue, so the policy had to be ditched, because of the great curse of contemporary politics: "if you're explaining, you're losing".
    So the argument is that Truss is incredibly weak? Since rather than use the goodwill she has through a large lead with members to explain the policy, she ditched a good policy instead?

    Your explanation is like when politicians complain about the media attacking them as a reason they lost - real leaders have to overcome opponents and their arguments, if it is something they believe is worth fighting for.

    So either she was weak or it was not a very good idea in the first place, as she does not care to defend it as it actually was.
    She either had to u-turn or die on the hill of regional pay. Just not worth it for the furore, it's something that would take ages to have any effect whereas the Tory leadership election is called in about a month's time.
    That's fine if she had to u-turn as it would go down like a sack of manure, but this is like a
    typical 'I'm stupid defence' politicians use, if she wants to simultaneously say it was a great idea but she won't do it because it's too much hassle to explain.
    As I wrote on previous thread - if it’s a great idea that’s been misrepresented then it’s simple - she can take the offer from Andrew Neil for an interview and explain what she really meant and dazzle us with the brilliance of the plan.

    Andrew Neil will have nothing he can pull apart as it’s a great plan which she will have cleared up and represented properly and Queen Liz will be crowned PM.

    Surely nobody can have a problem with this?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,106
    nico679 said:

    Latest Westminster voting intention (27-28 July)

    Con: 34% (+2 from 21-22 July)
    Lab: 35% (-4)
    Lib Dem: 13% (+1)
    Green: 7% (-1)
    Reform UK: 3% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)


    Tie incoming...

    Jeez I worry whether together with the recent pandemic there’s also a virus of stupidity effecting the country . At this point the Tories could bring in a euthanasia policy on over 80s to relieve pressure on the NHS and still the blue rinses will be cheering on this loathsome government.
    Electoral calculus gives Conservatives 284, Labour 274, LDs 16, SNP 52 on the new boundaries on today's Yougov.

    So Tories most seats but Starmer could form a minority government with LD support that would have more support than the Conservatives and with the Greens, Alliance and SDLP that would have more support than the Tories + DUP even without the SNP
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=34&LAB=35&LIB=13&Reform=3&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.5&SCOTLAB=24&SCOTLIB=8&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=0&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=46.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,350

    I don't care at all about leadership election promises

    "Honest" Keir has proved that they're worth less than manifesto promises

    Right now I care most about steadfast support for Ukraine

    Truss has been resolutely anti-Russian

    Sunak has allegedly been weak in his pro-Ukrainian stance

    "Honest" Keir twice campaigned hard for Ukraine to not exist

    Okay...?
    He tried to make Corbyn Prime Minister

    Twice

    Corbyn wants, and wanted, Ukraine to accede to Russian territorial demands

    Russia wants all of Ukraine

    People that support or supported Corbyn should be deeply ashamed of themselves
    You voted for Boris Johnson.

    He meets illegally with Russian spies.

    You voted for Priti Patel.

    She meets illegally with Iranian spies.
    What are the pro Russian/Iranian policies that either have implemented, or even tried to, during their times in office?

    Jeremy Corbyn wanted to share detailed forensic murder info with the murderer

    Boris beat him. Thank fuck
    Boris Johnson is the worst PM in British history. Congratulations on voting for that
    I've explained why I'm proud of that vote

    If you cared about Ukraine you would wish that you'd voted for him too
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,864
    Driver said:

    She's a still sho-in for the Tory leadership, so what matters more is that her stance on levelling down public sector pay in the regions will come back to haunt her at the GE. A gift for Labour in red wall seats and many more besides.

    We will have a Conservative leader who had publically set out "plans that would see pay dramatically cut for police, nurses and our armed forces in Cardiff and Canterbury, Teesside and Taunton during a cost of living crisis" (in the helpful words of Sunak campaign, to which Starmer says thanks). It doesn't matter that she tried to retract or that the policy won't feature in the Conservative GE manifesto, it's what she clearly wants to happen. Labour will be shouting that from the rooftops and it will be very hard to deny.


    If Sir Keir wants to lie about Tory proposed policies, I'm sure they'll be happy to return the favour if he ever comes up with any.
    Sir Keir doesn't need to lie about anything. All he needs to say is that what she announced is what she intends to do once a GE is out of the way, regardless of what features in the Tory manifesto. And why on earth should she be believed if she claims that she didn't really mean it? Starmer's claim will have the ring of plausibility.

    Almost doubling VAT from 8% to 15% wasn't in the 1979 Tory manifesto either. It didn't stop Labour claiming that it would happen, to Tory denials. And it did happen.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,294
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    kle4 said:

    Driver said:

    What this shows us that the old Liz Truss is still very much there.

    She has a habit of talking about things she doesn't understand, having to walk back what she has said. It does not inspire confidence that is competent or that she is a change from BoJo.

    That announcement to cut pay in the Red Wall will have gone down there very badly.

    The policy has been ditched, can everyone please stop lying about it now?
    Was it ditched, or was it misrepresented? I'm confused, as if it was the latter then there would obviously be no reason to ditch it.
    It was obvious that the lies about the policy would continue, so the policy had to be ditched, because of the great curse of contemporary politics: "if you're explaining, you're losing".
    So the argument is that Truss is incredibly weak? Since rather than use the goodwill she has through a large lead with members to explain the policy, she ditched a good policy instead?

    Your explanation is like when politicians complain about the media attacking them as a reason they lost - real leaders have to overcome opponents and their arguments, if it is something they believe is worth fighting for.

    So either she was weak or it was not a very good idea in the first place, as she does not care to defend it as it actually was.
    She either had to u-turn or die on the hill of regional pay. Just not worth it for the furore, it's something that would take ages to have any effect whereas the Tory leadership election is called in about a month's time.
    That's fine if she had to u-turn as it would go down like a sack of manure, but this is like a typical 'I'm stupid defence' politicians use, if she wants to simultaneously say it was a great idea but she won't do it because it's too much hassle to explain.
    She’s parking it for now, and will circle back around to the concept in a less febrile atmosphere, that allows for more nuanced discussion - without a hundred fellow Tories engaging in a Twitter pile-on of untruths and misrepresentations.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 478

    YouGov have tended to give Labour the low end scores but 35 is the lowest Labour VI since the YouGov of Dec 1-2 2021.
    Redfield plus YouGov strongly hint that despite some derision at the prospect yesterday, Tarrygate has impacted Labours support. Probably certainty to vote effects I suspect as labourites back away from failure to support workers

    IPSOS overlaps and has 13 point lead, explain that?
    Mori only uses 10/10 likelihood to vote in its headline VI, I think?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 4,190
    edited August 2

    YouGov have tended to give Labour the low end scores but 35 is the lowest Labour VI since the YouGov of Dec 1-2 2021.
    Redfield plus YouGov strongly hint that despite some derision at the prospect yesterday, Tarrygate has impacted Labours support. Probably certainty to vote effects I suspect as labourites back away from failure to support workers

    IPSOS overlaps and has 13 point lead, explain that?
    Ipsos fieldwork was 21st to 27th. Almost entirely pre Tarry. And the earlier part of that 21 to 27 was when Comres and Deltapoll reported double digit leads too
    We need another poll to confirm but a possibility yes.
    ComRes and MORI generally went against the recent flow which was back to the pre chaos position. These last 2 polls are an indication the Tories have closed in further probably on the back of wall to wall press coverage and Labour have helped with Starmers slightly weird for Labour picket aversion. It may just be an anomoly but if the ComRes which should be out imminently closes and Thursdays Redfield is around the Monday lead then id fancy a tie or opinium 1 point either way lead on Saturday evening

    Edit - and important to note those last 2 polls are more Lab loss than tory gain. The tories are nowhere near the 38 or 39 minimum theyd need to be biggest party (imo)
  • YouGov have tended to give Labour the low end scores but 35 is the lowest Labour VI since the YouGov of Dec 1-2 2021.
    Redfield plus YouGov strongly hint that despite some derision at the prospect yesterday, Tarrygate has impacted Labours support. Probably certainty to vote effects I suspect as labourites back away from failure to support workers

    IPSOS overlaps and has 13 point lead, explain that?
    Ipsos fieldwork was 21st to 27th. Almost entirely pre Tarry. And the earlier part of that 21 to 27 was when Comres and Deltapoll reported double digit leads too
    We need another poll to confirm but a possibility yes.
    ComRes and MORI generally went against the recent flow which was back to the pre chaos position. These last 2 polls are an indication the Tories have clised in further probably on the back of wall to wall press coverage and Labour have helped with Starmers slightly weird for Labour picket aversion. It may just be an anomoly but if the ComRes which should be out imminently closes and Thursdays Redfield is around the Monday lead then id fancy a tie or opinium 1 point either way lead on Saturday evening
    I best get a bet on.
  • I don't care at all about leadership election promises

    "Honest" Keir has proved that they're worth less than manifesto promises

    Right now I care most about steadfast support for Ukraine

    Truss has been resolutely anti-Russian

    Sunak has allegedly been weak in his pro-Ukrainian stance

    "Honest" Keir twice campaigned hard for Ukraine to not exist

    Okay...?
    He tried to make Corbyn Prime Minister

    Twice

    Corbyn wants, and wanted, Ukraine to accede to Russian territorial demands

    Russia wants all of Ukraine

    People that support or supported Corbyn should be deeply ashamed of themselves
    You voted for Boris Johnson.

    He meets illegally with Russian spies.

    You voted for Priti Patel.

    She meets illegally with Iranian spies.
    What are the pro Russian/Iranian policies that either have implemented, or even tried to, during their times in office?

    Jeremy Corbyn wanted to share detailed forensic murder info with the murderer

    Boris beat him. Thank fuck
    Boris Johnson is the worst PM in British history. Congratulations on voting for that
    I've explained why I'm proud of that vote

    If you cared about Ukraine you would wish that you'd voted for him too
    I could never vote for a party led by Boris Johnson. If you get a Stewart or a Cameron back I'll think about it. I have voted Tory in the past.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,292
    edited August 2
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The SNP may not like Truss' statement but could to see our potential future PM standing firm against Sturgeon, something most Unionists will welcome.

    He public sector comments may not have been well advised for the electorate as a whole, hence her row back but for party members concerned about public sector crowding out of the private sector in parts of the North it will not have gone down so badly

    Not just the SNP. Quite a few people of other parties, including the "Conservative" one, have taken it very badly.

    For instance:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20594201.former-tory-msp-says-liz-truss-lost-vote-inappropriate-nicola-sturgeon-dig/

    Ignoring a democratically elected First Minister is not a good practice to carry on from Mr Johnson.
    You manage to find 1 ex Tory MSP who has not been at Holyrood for 6 years.

    Ignoring Sturgeon's constant indyref2 shrieking is however an excellent move from a Tory PM, meanwhile actual Tory MSPs like Murdo Fraser are loving the new harder line from Truss
    Murdo Fraser? He's as bad as Ms Truss for changing his mind. He wanted independence for the Scottish Tories. Now he's all in favour of unity.

    Just bear in mind: he's a list MSP, not a constituency one. He will almost always get elected whatever happens under FPTP.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 4,190
    edited August 2
    Driver said:

    YouGov have tended to give Labour the low end scores but 35 is the lowest Labour VI since the YouGov of Dec 1-2 2021.
    Redfield plus YouGov strongly hint that despite some derision at the prospect yesterday, Tarrygate has impacted Labours support. Probably certainty to vote effects I suspect as labourites back away from failure to support workers

    IPSOS overlaps and has 13 point lead, explain that?
    Mori only uses 10/10 likelihood to vote in its headline VI, I think?
    Correct. The 'all naming a party' (i think thats '5 to 10' certain to vote) figures were 42 Lab, 31 Tory
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,292
    edited August 2
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The SNP may not like Truss' statement but could to see our potential future PM standing firm against Sturgeon, something most Unionists will welcome.

    He public sector comments may not have been well advised for the electorate as a whole, hence her row back but for party members concerned about public sector crowding out of the private sector in parts of the North it will not have gone down so badly

    Not just the SNP. Quite a few people of other parties, including the "Conservative" one, have taken it very badly.

    For instance:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20594201.former-tory-msp-says-liz-truss-lost-vote-inappropriate-nicola-sturgeon-dig/

    Ignoring a democratically elected First Minister is not a good practice to carry on from Mr Johnson.
    You manage to find 1 ex Tory MSP who has not been at Holyrood for 6 years.

    Ignoring Sturgeon's constant indyref2 shrieking is however an excellent move from a Tory PM, meanwhile actual Tory MSPs like Murdo Fraser are loving the new harder line from Truss
    Also: sexist, aren't you?

    Also: anti-constitutionalist, aren't you?
  • Driver said:

    YouGov have tended to give Labour the low end scores but 35 is the lowest Labour VI since the YouGov of Dec 1-2 2021.
    Redfield plus YouGov strongly hint that despite some derision at the prospect yesterday, Tarrygate has impacted Labours support. Probably certainty to vote effects I suspect as labourites back away from failure to support workers

    IPSOS overlaps and has 13 point lead, explain that?
    Mori only uses 10/10 likelihood to vote in its headline VI, I think?
    Correct. The 'all naming a party' figures were 42 Lab, 31 Tory
    Is this something we should be looking at? Tory voters on not sure coming back into the fold?
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 2,823
    edited August 2
    Sandpit said:

    I don't care at all about leadership election promises

    "Honest" Keir has proved that they're worth less than manifesto promises

    Right now I care most about steadfast support for Ukraine

    Truss has been resolutely anti-Russian

    Sunak has allegedly been weak in his pro-Ukrainian stance

    "Honest" Keir twice campaigned hard for Ukraine to not exist

    Okay...?
    He tried to make Corbyn Prime Minister

    Twice

    Corbyn wants, and wanted, Ukraine to accede to Russian territorial demands

    Russia wants all of Ukraine

    People that support or supported Corbyn should be deeply ashamed of themselves
    You voted for Boris Johnson.

    He meets illegally with Russian spies.

    You voted for Priti Patel.

    She meets illegally with Iranian spies.
    What are the pro Russian/Iranian policies that either have implemented, or even tried to, during their times in office?

    Jeremy Corbyn wanted to share detailed forensic murder info with the murderer

    Boris beat him. Thank fuck
    Boris Johnson is the worst PM in British history. Congratulations on voting for that
    Only Jeremy Corbyn would have been worse. A lot worse. Doubly so for Ukraine.
    I doubt it very much re Ukraine. It is in the obvious interest of the West to supply Ukraine with sufficient weapons to fight Russia to a standstill and maintain a grinding war of attrition, but not enough to push Russia back so much that Putin feels able to justify the use of nuclear weapons. This would have been case regardless of who happened to be in power in the UK. It is the Americans who are calling the shots, as usual.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    @rcs1000

    Robert: I too have been told to watch the next 2-3 months very carefully in China and not to rule out a black swan. Xi is so wedded to zero covid he can’t undo it without massive loss of face and as you say, the policy is now there as long as Xi is.

    He’s made provincial and municipal governors perform “local” lockdowns because he didn’t have the strength to issue a national lockdown edict but has simultaneously banned them from using “dangerous” “unproven” western vaccines. And as a result he’s making Chinese poorer.

    In short he’s twisted too many people’s tits to be assured of smooth passage to a third term, which is widely seen as presaging a form of life emperorship for him. So as a result a fierce power struggle is already underway. Usual style of mysterious deaths of opponents.

    The military sabre rattling with Taiwan has been predictable to me for many years. At some point the Ponzi scheme of the Chinese economy led this way. What’s surprises me is the current leadership’s willingness to commit such an act of self harm and accelerate that economic reckoning.

    Militarily the whole thing is a joke. They can no more take Taiwan as Putin can Kiev. Doesn’t stop this being a dangerous moment. Because whereas Kiev is an indirect NATO - Russia conflict, the U.S. would if necessary directly
    involve itself in the protection of Taiwan.

    So place your bets. Who leaves office (and possibly planet earth) first? Putin or Xi? Three months ago the answer seemed obviously to be Putin. Now I’m not so sure.

    Also, China's nuclear weapons probably work.
    As will Japan's & South Korea's if China ever uses them.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 17,554
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The SNP may not like Truss' statement but could to see our potential future PM standing firm against Sturgeon, something most Unionists will welcome.

    He public sector comments may not have been well advised for the electorate as a whole, hence her row back but for party members concerned about public sector crowding out of the private sector in parts of the North it will not have gone down so badly

    Not just the SNP. Quite a few people of other parties, including the "Conservative" one, have taken it very badly.

    For instance:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20594201.former-tory-msp-says-liz-truss-lost-vote-inappropriate-nicola-sturgeon-dig/

    Ignoring a democratically elected First Minister is not a good practice to carry on from Mr Johnson.
    You manage to find 1 ex Tory MSP who has not been at Holyrood for 6 years.

    Ignoring Sturgeon's constant indyref2 shrieking is however an excellent move from a Tory PM, meanwhile actual Tory MSPs like Murdo Fraser are loving the new harder line from Truss
    Also: sexist, aren't you?

    Also: anti-constitutionalist, aren't you?
    Men can't shriek? Are you sure it isn't you making sexist assumptions?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 4,190
    edited August 2

    Driver said:

    YouGov have tended to give Labour the low end scores but 35 is the lowest Labour VI since the YouGov of Dec 1-2 2021.
    Redfield plus YouGov strongly hint that despite some derision at the prospect yesterday, Tarrygate has impacted Labours support. Probably certainty to vote effects I suspect as labourites back away from failure to support workers

    IPSOS overlaps and has 13 point lead, explain that?
    Mori only uses 10/10 likelihood to vote in its headline VI, I think?
    Correct. The 'all naming a party' figures were 42 Lab, 31 Tory
    Is this something we should be looking at? Tory voters on not sure coming back into the fold?
    Its an indicator of slightly softer/underlying support. Its worth keeping an eye on with MORI polls. It suggests a few more soft Tory supporters than Labour right now but Labour have a large lead on those definitely intending voting at this time. Its basically opinium in reverse, these are the swingbackers who may firm up as GE approaches
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,350

    I don't care at all about leadership election promises

    "Honest" Keir has proved that they're worth less than manifesto promises

    Right now I care most about steadfast support for Ukraine

    Truss has been resolutely anti-Russian

    Sunak has allegedly been weak in his pro-Ukrainian stance

    "Honest" Keir twice campaigned hard for Ukraine to not exist

    Okay...?
    He tried to make Corbyn Prime Minister

    Twice

    Corbyn wants, and wanted, Ukraine to accede to Russian territorial demands

    Russia wants all of Ukraine

    People that support or supported Corbyn should be deeply ashamed of themselves
    You voted for Boris Johnson.

    He meets illegally with Russian spies.

    You voted for Priti Patel.

    She meets illegally with Iranian spies.
    What are the pro Russian/Iranian policies that either have implemented, or even tried to, during their times in office?

    Jeremy Corbyn wanted to share detailed forensic murder info with the murderer

    Boris beat him. Thank fuck
    Boris Johnson is the worst PM in British history. Congratulations on voting for that
    I've explained why I'm proud of that vote

    If you cared about Ukraine you would wish that you'd voted for him too
    I could never vote for a party led by Boris Johnson. If you get a Stewart or a Cameron back I'll think about it. I have voted Tory in the past.
    Are you ashamed of voting for Corbyn and for Ukraine’s dissolution into Russia?

    If you are, I might be able to forgive your youthful (relatively), ignorant support for the “people’s champion”

    If not then accept your position as an enabler of Russia’s evil aggression
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,064
    Anyway, I wonder whether the Spendid Assembly of The PB Tory Selectorate has also received this email from CCHQ, which in part reads:

    Your ballot is now on the way - but it will arrive with you a little later than we originally said. Please do not worry.

    This is because we have taken some time to add some additional security to our ballot process which has delayed us slightly.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,106
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The SNP may not like Truss' statement but could to see our potential future PM standing firm against Sturgeon, something most Unionists will welcome.

    He public sector comments may not have been well advised for the electorate as a whole, hence her row back but for party members concerned about public sector crowding out of the private sector in parts of the North it will not have gone down so badly

    Not just the SNP. Quite a few people of other parties, including the "Conservative" one, have taken it very badly.

    For instance:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20594201.former-tory-msp-says-liz-truss-lost-vote-inappropriate-nicola-sturgeon-dig/

    Ignoring a democratically elected First Minister is not a good practice to carry on from Mr Johnson.
    You manage to find 1 ex Tory MSP who has not been at Holyrood for 6 years.

    Ignoring Sturgeon's constant indyref2 shrieking is however an excellent move from a Tory PM, meanwhile actual Tory MSPs like Murdo Fraser are loving the new harder line from Truss
    Also: sexist, aren't you?

    Also: anti-constitutionalist, aren't you?
    No on neither count, it may have escaped your attention but Liz Truss is a woman.

    The UK constitution is also based on Crown in Parliament
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    Not an attention seeker, no siree!

    NICOLA Sturgeon has deleted a tweet about more than 40,000 Russian soldiers being “eliminated” in Ukraine after being accused of “glorifying war”.

    The First Minister posted a message about the statistic accompanied by a strong arm emoji earlier today, sparking a backlash on social media.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20595998.nicola-sturgeon-deletes-tweet-accused-glorifying-war/?ref=twtrec
  • I don't care at all about leadership election promises

    "Honest" Keir has proved that they're worth less than manifesto promises

    Right now I care most about steadfast support for Ukraine

    Truss has been resolutely anti-Russian

    Sunak has allegedly been weak in his pro-Ukrainian stance

    "Honest" Keir twice campaigned hard for Ukraine to not exist

    Okay...?
    He tried to make Corbyn Prime Minister

    Twice

    Corbyn wants, and wanted, Ukraine to accede to Russian territorial demands

    Russia wants all of Ukraine

    People that support or supported Corbyn should be deeply ashamed of themselves
    You voted for Boris Johnson.

    He meets illegally with Russian spies.

    You voted for Priti Patel.

    She meets illegally with Iranian spies.
    What are the pro Russian/Iranian policies that either have implemented, or even tried to, during their times in office?

    Jeremy Corbyn wanted to share detailed forensic murder info with the murderer

    Boris beat him. Thank fuck
    Boris Johnson is the worst PM in British history. Congratulations on voting for that
    I've explained why I'm proud of that vote

    If you cared about Ukraine you would wish that you'd voted for him too
    I could never vote for a party led by Boris Johnson. If you get a Stewart or a Cameron back I'll think about it. I have voted Tory in the past.
    Are you ashamed of voting for Corbyn and for Ukraine’s dissolution into Russia?

    If you are, I might be able to forgive your youthful (relatively), ignorant support for the “people’s champion”

    If not then accept your position as an enabler of Russia’s evil aggression
    You obviously read my posts very little.

    I have apologised countless times for my support of Corbyn, for voting for him in elections and also in the Labour Party. It is why I voted for Starmer full well knowing he would get rid of all of his policies, ideas and people.

    Now will you apologise for voting for Boris Johnson? The worst, most corrupt and terrible PM we've actually ever had? If not I will accept your position as an enabler of corruption, lying and cronyism in politics.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,261
    JohnO said:

    Anyway, I wonder whether the Spendid Assembly of The PB Tory Selectorate has also received this email from CCHQ, which in part reads:

    Your ballot is now on the way - but it will arrive with you a little later than we originally said. Please do not worry.

    This is because we have taken some time to add some additional security to our ballot process which has delayed us slightly.

    Yep....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,350
    MikeL said:

    PredictIt has No Change to Kansas abortion as marginal favourite - 54% chance of winning.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/17/US-Elections

    Were that to be the case, it would be extraordinary, and would suggest that in vast swathes of America (basically everywhere except Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi and Utah), abortion is likely to remain legal if it gets to referendum / ballot proposition.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,106
    JohnO said:

    Anyway, I wonder whether the Spendid Assembly of The PB Tory Selectorate has also received this email from CCHQ, which in part reads:

    Your ballot is now on the way - but it will arrive with you a little later than we originally said. Please do not worry.

    This is because we have taken some time to add some additional security to our ballot process which has delayed us slightly.

    If Sunak wins a shock narrow victory that email might provoke an interesting reaction from some Truss supporters but I am sure all above board
This discussion has been closed.