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Liz takes a bit of a tumble in the betting – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,157

    HYUFD said:

    Truss going down like a lead balloon in Scotland.

    YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 51%
    Con 25%
    LD 17%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 1%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 31%
    LD 15%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 4%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 35%
    Con 34%
    LD 9%
    Grn 8%
    Ref 6%
    PC 5%

    North
    Lab 41%
    Con 34%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 2%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 19%
    Con 18%
    Grn 8%
    LD 5%

    (YouGov / The Times Survey;
    Sample Size: 1797; Fieldwork: 27th - 28th July 2022)

    Pro-independence parties 56%
    Unionist parties 42%

    So what, she has made clear she will never allow an indyref2 on her watch so sod all the SNP can do about it.
    We love your greatest hit, but does your single have a B-side?
    That calculation also errs on the generous side by omitting the quarter to third of Labour voters who are pro-indy.
  • @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Levelled up a fair bit. Now to get Techne struck off from the polling council.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MORE IMPORTANTLY

    My diet yields results. 7 pounds down

    I spend my days reading restaurant reviews and fish recipes, and drooling from hunger, but it works

    What is this miracle diet and why can you not eat fish?
    It's a very clever diet where you eat ABSOLUTELY FUCK ALL

    For about 3 days, then you eat normally for 1 day (don't binge), then another 3 days with NOTHING

    Brutal, but it works
    The Auschwitz Diet
    Anti Semitic Ping liked by 2 fellow Anti Semites too!
    No, anti semitism is hating jews, not making iffy jokes about anti semites. Being jezza, not making jokes about jezza.
    Forde -"AS was used as a factional tool"
    No it wasn't.

    Corbyn conflated Likud's policy of policing East Jerusalem and the West Bank and Jewish Labour MPs. He may not have set out to be Anti-Semitic, but whichever way you call it, he ended up in principle at the very least, being hopelessly Anti-Semitic.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,305

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MORE IMPORTANTLY

    My diet yields results. 7 pounds down

    I spend my days reading restaurant reviews and fish recipes, and drooling from hunger, but it works

    What is this miracle diet and why can you not eat fish?
    It's a very clever diet where you eat ABSOLUTELY FUCK ALL

    For about 3 days, then you eat normally for 1 day (don't binge), then another 3 days with NOTHING

    Brutal, but it works
    Quite a few models of my acquaintance used to use a variation of 'the cabbage diet' where they'd just have cabbage soup (spiced, plain, herby) for the 'fasting' days. They claimed it worked wonders and kept the worst of the hunger pangs at bay. I imagine there are some fabulous Greek 'green soups' that would also fit the bill.
    When I get a real wobble I do the same! I either have a bowl of hot bone broth (yes @HYUFD) or miso soup. Gives some minerals and vits and flavour with almost no calories
    Do you make your own bone broth or buy it?
    Buy it. The good stuff. From wholefoods
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    edited August 2022
    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Hmm.... OK....

    Maybe not. 1 bed flats in King's X are £1m for OK ones:


    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/111821045#/media?channel=RES_BUY&id=media7&ref=photoCollage


    and £1.3m for nice one bed flats in the Gasholders:


    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/125626310#/?channel=RES_BUY

    This is King's Cross, not Mayfair. Insane

    The question is who is buying them? Who is making that much money?
    Lord knows. I read a couple of articles saying it was wealthy Londoners downsizing from suburban houses to urban flats. There must also be a lot of super affluent students, with St Martin's, UAL, and UCL all close or very close

    And some buy to let? But they all seem let. It's a busy area now and the new flats are clearly occupied (balconies with chairs and bikes etc)

    The death of London was much exaggerated
    There comes a point though, surely?

    Live in an absolutely identical half million shoebox in zone 2 for 500k, commute the three stops in to kings cross and you're laughing. Tube strike? That's ok, 500k will buy you an uber home every night for the next 70 years.

    I'm just struggling to understand who wants to pay seven figures for 535 square feet.
  • Pulpstar said:

    The rise and fall and rise of Truss :D

    The rise and fall of the thread header!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited August 2022

    Liz Truss has extended her lead over Rishi Sunak to 34 points in the Tory leadership race, with 60 per cent of party members now saying they will vote for the foreign secretary to succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister.

    A YouGov poll for The Times and Times Radio found that almost nine in ten Conservative members have now made up their minds how they will vote ahead of ballot papers going out this week.

    Just 26 per cent say they will support Sunak, compared with 60 per cent for Truss. The rest are undecided or say they will not vote.

    The poll, carried out over the past five days, suggests a significant widening of Truss’s lead. The last YouGov survey, carried out in the wake of Penny Mordaunt’s elimination from the race, had support for Truss on 49 per cent compared with 31 per cent for Sunak, with 15 per cent undecided.

    It shows that Truss is now ahead of Sunak among all age groups, across different parts of the country and men and women. The only category where he beats Truss is among Tory Remain supporters.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/truss-extends-lead-over-sunak-in-tory-leadership-race-3pksqstpp

    60% still less than the 66% who voted for Johnson in July 2019 however
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited August 2022
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss going down like a lead balloon in Scotland.

    YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 51%
    Con 25%
    LD 17%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 1%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 31%
    LD 15%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 4%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 35%
    Con 34%
    LD 9%
    Grn 8%
    Ref 6%
    PC 5%

    North
    Lab 41%
    Con 34%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 2%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 19%
    Con 18%
    Grn 8%
    LD 5%

    (YouGov / The Times Survey;
    Sample Size: 1797; Fieldwork: 27th - 28th July 2022)

    Pro-independence parties 56%
    Unionist parties 42%

    So what, she has made clear she will never allow an indyref2 on her watch so sod all the SNP can do about it.
    We love your greatest hit, but does your single have a B-side?
    That calculation also errs on the generous side by omitting the quarter to third of Labour voters who are pro-indy.
    There are also plenty of SNP voters who are anti indy.

    Hence last month's poll of polls had No on 47% and Yes on 44%


    https://twitter.com/pollofpolls_EU/status/1544002146420629508?s=20&t=oRdJm1dQAw-nozPDYjCRDw
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603

    @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today

    Who is "all"?
  • @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today

    That's one reading of the brief clip of what he said. Is President Macron also a Russian mole for having tried to broker a peace deal?

  • Midlands and Wales
    Lab 35%
    Con 34%
    LD 9%
    Grn 8%
    Ref 6%
    PC 5%

    Why have they lumped together "the Midlands AND Wales"??
    Wales on its own is too small for a meaningful sample.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,305
    The King's Cross gasholders then....




    And now


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited August 2022
    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Hmm.... OK....

    Maybe not. 1 bed flats in King's X are £1m for OK ones:


    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/111821045#/media?channel=RES_BUY&id=media7&ref=photoCollage


    and £1.3m for nice one bed flats in the Gasholders:


    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/125626310#/?channel=RES_BUY

    This is King's Cross, not Mayfair. Insane

    The question is who is buying them? Who is making that much money?
    Lord knows. I read a couple of articles saying it was wealthy Londoners downsizing from suburban houses to urban flats. There must also be a lot of super affluent students, with St Martin's, UAL, and UCL all close or very close

    And some buy to let? But they all seem let. It's a busy area now and the new flats are clearly occupied (balconies with chairs and bikes etc)

    The death of London was much exaggerated
    There comes a point though, surely?

    Live in an absolutely identical half million shoebox in zone 2 for 500k, commute the three stops in to kings cross and you're laughing. Tube strike? That's ok, 500k will buy you an uber home every night for the next 70 years.

    I'm just struggling to understand who wants to pay seven figures for 535 square feet.
    Foreigners. It will be wealthy overseas students, Americans with business in London, and people needing a bolt-hole in the West if their own government implodes. The global 0.1%
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MORE IMPORTANTLY

    My diet yields results. 7 pounds down

    I spend my days reading restaurant reviews and fish recipes, and drooling from hunger, but it works

    What is this miracle diet and why can you not eat fish?
    It's a very clever diet where you eat ABSOLUTELY FUCK ALL

    For about 3 days, then you eat normally for 1 day (don't binge), then another 3 days with NOTHING

    Brutal, but it works
    Quite a few models of my acquaintance used to use a variation of 'the cabbage diet' where they'd just have cabbage soup (spiced, plain, herby) for the 'fasting' days. They claimed it worked wonders and kept the worst of the hunger pangs at bay. I imagine there are some fabulous Greek 'green soups' that would also fit the bill.
    When I get a real wobble I do the same! I either have a bowl of hot bone broth (yes @HYUFD) or miso soup. Gives some minerals and vits and flavour with almost no calories
    Do you make your own bone broth or buy it?
    Buy it. The good stuff. From wholefoods
    Cool. I'm pretty sure I'm not in their catchment area, so boiling up bones it is.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,157
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss going down like a lead balloon in Scotland.

    YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 51%
    Con 25%
    LD 17%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 1%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 31%
    LD 15%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 4%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 35%
    Con 34%
    LD 9%
    Grn 8%
    Ref 6%
    PC 5%

    North
    Lab 41%
    Con 34%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 2%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 19%
    Con 18%
    Grn 8%
    LD 5%

    (YouGov / The Times Survey;
    Sample Size: 1797; Fieldwork: 27th - 28th July 2022)

    Pro-independence parties 56%
    Unionist parties 42%

    So what, she has made clear she will never allow an indyref2 on her watch so sod all the SNP can do about it.
    We love your greatest hit, but does your single have a B-side?
    That calculation also errs on the generous side by omitting the quarter to third of Labour voters who are pro-indy.
    There are also plenty of SNP voters who are anti indy.

    Hence last month's poll of polls had No on 47% and Yes on 44%


    https://twitter.com/pollofpolls_EU/status/1544002146420629508?s=20&t=oRdJm1dQAw-nozPDYjCRDw
    You're including and excluding DKs to try and prove your point. Doesn't work.
  • I'm laying it on the line now

    If you can't condemn Corbyn's line as evil supporting fuckwittedness then you're evil or fuckwitted too
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Liz Truss has extended her lead over Rishi Sunak to 34 points in the Tory leadership race, with 60 per cent of party members now saying they will vote for the foreign secretary to succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister.

    A YouGov poll for The Times and Times Radio found that almost nine in ten Conservative members have now made up their minds how they will vote ahead of ballot papers going out this week.

    Just 26 per cent say they will support Sunak, compared with 60 per cent for Truss. The rest are undecided or say they will not vote.

    The poll, carried out over the past five days, suggests a significant widening of Truss’s lead. The last YouGov survey, carried out in the wake of Penny Mordaunt’s elimination from the race, had support for Truss on 49 per cent compared with 31 per cent for Sunak, with 15 per cent undecided.

    It shows that Truss is now ahead of Sunak among all age groups, across different parts of the country and men and women. The only category where he beats Truss is among Tory Remain supporters.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/truss-extends-lead-over-sunak-in-tory-leadership-race-3pksqstpp

    YouGov with the whacky polls today
    Excluding don't knows, it puts Lizzy on 70% and I'm on Lizzy getting over 70% at 12/1.

    ****Mythical modesty klaxon****

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MORE IMPORTANTLY

    My diet yields results. 7 pounds down

    I spend my days reading restaurant reviews and fish recipes, and drooling from hunger, but it works

    What is this miracle diet and why can you not eat fish?
    It's a very clever diet where you eat ABSOLUTELY FUCK ALL

    For about 3 days, then you eat normally for 1 day (don't binge), then another 3 days with NOTHING

    Brutal, but it works
    The Auschwitz Diet
    Anti Semitic Ping liked by 2 fellow Anti Semites too!
    No, anti semitism is hating jews, not making iffy jokes about anti semites. Being jezza, not making jokes about jezza.
    Forde -"AS was used as a factional tool"
    Yes. to be useful as tools, things have to exist.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,305
    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Hmm.... OK....

    Maybe not. 1 bed flats in King's X are £1m for OK ones:


    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/111821045#/media?channel=RES_BUY&id=media7&ref=photoCollage


    and £1.3m for nice one bed flats in the Gasholders:


    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/125626310#/?channel=RES_BUY

    This is King's Cross, not Mayfair. Insane

    The question is who is buying them? Who is making that much money?
    Lord knows. I read a couple of articles saying it was wealthy Londoners downsizing from suburban houses to urban flats. There must also be a lot of super affluent students, with St Martin's, UAL, and UCL all close or very close

    And some buy to let? But they all seem let. It's a busy area now and the new flats are clearly occupied (balconies with chairs and bikes etc)

    The death of London was much exaggerated
    There comes a point though, surely?

    Live in an absolutely identical half million shoebox in zone 2 for 500k, commute the three stops in to kings cross and you're laughing. Tube strike? That's ok, 500k will buy you an uber home every night for the next 70 years.

    I'm just struggling to understand who wants to pay seven figures for 535 square feet.
    People who REALLY care about location, and have enough money to get the right location. They exist. Indeed I am, I suppose, one of them. For the price of my one bed here near Regent's Park I could easily get two beds a couple of Tube stops further out. And yet I don't
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss going down like a lead balloon in Scotland.

    YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 51%
    Con 25%
    LD 17%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 1%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 31%
    LD 15%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 4%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 35%
    Con 34%
    LD 9%
    Grn 8%
    Ref 6%
    PC 5%

    North
    Lab 41%
    Con 34%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 2%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 19%
    Con 18%
    Grn 8%
    LD 5%

    (YouGov / The Times Survey;
    Sample Size: 1797; Fieldwork: 27th - 28th July 2022)

    Pro-independence parties 56%
    Unionist parties 42%

    So what, she has made clear she will never allow an indyref2 on her watch so sod all the SNP can do about it.
    We love your greatest hit, but does your single have a B-side?
    That calculation also errs on the generous side by omitting the quarter to third of Labour voters who are pro-indy.
    There are also plenty of SNP voters who are anti indy.

    Hence last month's poll of polls had No on 47% and Yes on 44%


    https://twitter.com/pollofpolls_EU/status/1544002146420629508?s=20&t=oRdJm1dQAw-nozPDYjCRDw
    You're including and excluding DKs to try and prove your point. Doesn't work.
    That was including Don't Knows, excluding them No was over 50%
  • @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today

    That's one reading of the brief clip of what he said. Is President Macron also a Russian mole for having tried to broker a peace deal?
    I hate to think what you think you're trying to stand up for
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    edited August 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Liz Truss has extended her lead over Rishi Sunak to 34 points in the Tory leadership race, with 60 per cent of party members now saying they will vote for the foreign secretary to succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister.

    A YouGov poll for The Times and Times Radio found that almost nine in ten Conservative members have now made up their minds how they will vote ahead of ballot papers going out this week.

    Just 26 per cent say they will support Sunak, compared with 60 per cent for Truss. The rest are undecided or say they will not vote.

    The poll, carried out over the past five days, suggests a significant widening of Truss’s lead. The last YouGov survey, carried out in the wake of Penny Mordaunt’s elimination from the race, had support for Truss on 49 per cent compared with 31 per cent for Sunak, with 15 per cent undecided.

    It shows that Truss is now ahead of Sunak among all age groups, across different parts of the country and men and women. The only category where he beats Truss is among Tory Remain supporters.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/truss-extends-lead-over-sunak-in-tory-leadership-race-3pksqstpp

    60% still less than the 66% who voted for Johnson in July 2019 however
    You're doing that thing where you (don't) ignore the undecideds and won't votes, again.

    If they break 50:50, Truss wins 67:33. If (say) 10% are undecided and those break 50:50, while 4% don't vote (and surely it'll be more than that? 96% turnout sounds ridiculous) then Truss wins 68:32. So, based on this poll, she's poised to outperform Johnson.

    In other news, this poll leads to some bizarre conclusions. At least 86% turnout implied? The overwhelming majority of voters already made up their minds and won't change them over the month-long campaign? Hmm. Maybe. I still think Sunak looks good value.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603
    edited August 2022

    I'm laying it on the line now

    If you can't condemn Corbyn's line as evil supporting fuckwittedness then you're evil or fuckwitted too

    Independent MP and former Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn has pretty much been condemned by most on here, even those who were previous supporters, or they have left the site (the Jezziah). Nick can be equivocal and BJO remains a fan.
  • @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today

    That's one reading of the brief clip of what he said. Is President Macron also a Russian mole for having tried to broker a peace deal?
    I hate to think what you think you're trying to stand up for
    And you are getting excited about an extreme interpretation of some old has-been.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,305
    Sandpit said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Hmm.... OK....

    Maybe not. 1 bed flats in King's X are £1m for OK ones:


    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/111821045#/media?channel=RES_BUY&id=media7&ref=photoCollage


    and £1.3m for nice one bed flats in the Gasholders:


    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/125626310#/?channel=RES_BUY

    This is King's Cross, not Mayfair. Insane

    The question is who is buying them? Who is making that much money?
    Lord knows. I read a couple of articles saying it was wealthy Londoners downsizing from suburban houses to urban flats. There must also be a lot of super affluent students, with St Martin's, UAL, and UCL all close or very close

    And some buy to let? But they all seem let. It's a busy area now and the new flats are clearly occupied (balconies with chairs and bikes etc)

    The death of London was much exaggerated
    There comes a point though, surely?

    Live in an absolutely identical half million shoebox in zone 2 for 500k, commute the three stops in to kings cross and you're laughing. Tube strike? That's ok, 500k will buy you an uber home every night for the next 70 years.

    I'm just struggling to understand who wants to pay seven figures for 535 square feet.
    Foreigners. It will be wealthy overseas students, Americans with business in London, and people needing a bolt-hole in the West if their own government implodes. The global 0.1%
    Them too, but the magazine articles I read both quoted wealthy Brits in later middle age downsizing, and moving back in to the centre

    If you have a £3m+ 5 bed house in, say, a nice bit of Muswell Hill; and all your kids have moved out, and you really like restaurants and bars and galleries and culture, then it makes sense to sell up in Muswell Hill and get a 2-3 bed in King's X for £2m and have a million in the bank

    Muswell Hill:

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/85631850#/?channel=RES_BUY


    King's X:

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/124708961#/?channel=RES_NEW

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Pulpstar said:

    Levelled up a fair bit. Now to get Techne struck off from the polling council.

    What larks, I got in at 13 on BF.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited August 2022
    Leon said:
    Nice pics. Not been there in a decade or more.

    If you buy an apartment there, can you rent it out as gas storage this winter? ;)

    Edit: Damn, beaten to it by @rottenborough
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    This bet is going to be a winner!


    Nah. It will be closer than that.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    I'm laying it on the line now

    If you can't condemn Corbyn's line as evil supporting fuckwittedness then you're evil or fuckwitted too

    If I were a really devious Russian troll, I think I'd pose as a dimwitted chauvinist picking fights with all and sundry for their Ruskie-loving ways.
  • @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today

    That's one reading of the brief clip of what he said. Is President Macron also a Russian mole for having tried to broker a peace deal?
    I hate to think what you think you're trying to stand up for
    And you are getting excited about an extreme interpretation of some old has-been.
    A has-been that the new man strenuously supported in the last two General Elections

    Did he ever indicate a different Ukraine strategy than the "surrender now" one his boss espoused through Stop The War since 2014?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756

    HYUFD said:

    Truss going down like a lead balloon in Scotland.

    YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 51%
    Con 25%
    LD 17%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 1%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 31%
    LD 15%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 4%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 35%
    Con 34%
    LD 9%
    Grn 8%
    Ref 6%
    PC 5%

    North
    Lab 41%
    Con 34%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 2%

    Scotland
    SNP 48%
    Lab 19%
    Con 18%
    Grn 8%
    LD 5%

    (YouGov / The Times Survey;
    Sample Size: 1797; Fieldwork: 27th - 28th July 2022)

    Pro-independence parties 56%
    Unionist parties 42%

    So what, she has made clear she will never allow an indyref2 on her watch so sod all the SNP can do about it.
    We love your greatest hit, but does your single have a B-side?
    DKs should always be counted for No
    0.4% swing from SNP to Cons
  • Carnyx said:

    geoffw said:

    I don't care at all about leadership election promises

    "Honest" Keir has proved that they're worth less than manifesto promises

    Right now I care most about steadfast support for Ukraine

    Truss has been resolutely anti-Russian

    Sunak has allegedly been weak in his pro-Ukrainian stance

    "Honest" Keir twice campaigned hard for Ukraine to not exist

    Watching the Commonwealth games I think it would be nice to invite Ukraine to join the Commonwealth when the dust has settled.
    Good idea.
    Why wait?
    On a technical point, Ukraine was never colonised by the British, therefore...
    Sevastopol was occupied by the Brits in 1855.
    AND French. Be fair.

    Also one or two other members of the alliance, but I can't remember the details of timing and whether those were actually represented by units on the ground.
    The Ottomans and the Piedmontese.
  • This bet is going to be a winner!


    Nah. It will be closer than that.
    Stop harshing my buzz.
  • Liz Truss has extended her lead over Rishi Sunak to 34 points in the Tory leadership race, with 60 per cent of party members now saying they will vote for the foreign secretary to succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister.

    A YouGov poll for The Times and Times Radio found that almost nine in ten Conservative members have now made up their minds how they will vote ahead of ballot papers going out this week.

    Just 26 per cent say they will support Sunak, compared with 60 per cent for Truss. The rest are undecided or say they will not vote.

    The poll, carried out over the past five days, suggests a significant widening of Truss’s lead. The last YouGov survey, carried out in the wake of Penny Mordaunt’s elimination from the race, had support for Truss on 49 per cent compared with 31 per cent for Sunak, with 15 per cent undecided.

    It shows that Truss is now ahead of Sunak among all age groups, across different parts of the country and men and women. The only category where he beats Truss is among Tory Remain supporters.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/truss-extends-lead-over-sunak-in-tory-leadership-race-3pksqstpp

    It still looks like there is a Yougov house effect that favours Liz Truss. Of course, Yougov could be right and the others wrongly lean towards Rishi Sunak.
    Also in YouGov's favour their history of calling party leadership contests spot on.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,305

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MORE IMPORTANTLY

    My diet yields results. 7 pounds down

    I spend my days reading restaurant reviews and fish recipes, and drooling from hunger, but it works

    What is this miracle diet and why can you not eat fish?
    It's a very clever diet where you eat ABSOLUTELY FUCK ALL

    For about 3 days, then you eat normally for 1 day (don't binge), then another 3 days with NOTHING

    Brutal, but it works
    Quite a few models of my acquaintance used to use a variation of 'the cabbage diet' where they'd just have cabbage soup (spiced, plain, herby) for the 'fasting' days. They claimed it worked wonders and kept the worst of the hunger pangs at bay. I imagine there are some fabulous Greek 'green soups' that would also fit the bill.
    When I get a real wobble I do the same! I either have a bowl of hot bone broth (yes @HYUFD) or miso soup. Gives some minerals and vits and flavour with almost no calories
    Do you make your own bone broth or buy it?
    Buy it. The good stuff. From wholefoods
    Cool. I'm pretty sure I'm not in their catchment area, so boiling up bones it is.
    I've learned a neat trick. You use the bone broth as a basis -

    https://www.ocado.com/products/borough-broth-co-organic-beef-bone-broth-large-pack-550741011?ds_rl=1291426&ds_rl=1291531&gclid=CjwKCAjwlqOXBhBqEiwA-hhitHwm_h-uXDjwlOP5YDR2WOCLbQ332acHYZPTpthEa2MB8oRbGV6K3BoCQocQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

    Then add in a tablespoon of sriracha and a sachet of dashi powder. This stuff

    https://www.japancentre.com/en/products/959-shimaya-bonito-dashi-stock-powder?gclid=CjwKCAjwlqOXBhBqEiwA-hhitCzifgRK6xY9lJtyTwQIJJWTYNQJaSae3g3KoGcsddMaf66rahMZJRoCt1EQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

    OMG it makes a sensational soup. Maybe chuck in some silken tofu or spinach or both. The umami flavour is intense, it is extremely nourishing, yet less than 100 calories. And it fills you up
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,305
    9pm in central London. Clear skies and 24C. Another Mediterranean night

    Most agreeable, despite the cloud earlier...
  • @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today

    That's one reading of the brief clip of what he said. Is President Macron also a Russian mole for having tried to broker a peace deal?
    I hate to think what you think you're trying to stand up for
    And you are getting excited about an extreme interpretation of some old has-been.
    A has-been that the new man strenuously supported in the last two General Elections

    Did he ever indicate a different Ukraine strategy than the "surrender now" one his boss espoused through Stop The War since 2014?
    First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. And one way or another, this war will end with a ceasefire and not the unconditional surrender of Russia. Second, Corbyn was calling for stiffer sanctions against Russia than were applied by our government. Third, Corbyn has not taken Russian money or met with KGB agents. Fourth, if Starmer is somehow bound to Corbyn by history, what do you make of Liz and Rishi distancing themselves from the government in which they both served and that one of them still does?
  • Liz Truss has extended her lead over Rishi Sunak to 34 points in the Tory leadership race, with 60 per cent of party members now saying they will vote for the foreign secretary to succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister.

    A YouGov poll for The Times and Times Radio found that almost nine in ten Conservative members have now made up their minds how they will vote ahead of ballot papers going out this week.

    Just 26 per cent say they will support Sunak, compared with 60 per cent for Truss. The rest are undecided or say they will not vote.

    The poll, carried out over the past five days, suggests a significant widening of Truss’s lead. The last YouGov survey, carried out in the wake of Penny Mordaunt’s elimination from the race, had support for Truss on 49 per cent compared with 31 per cent for Sunak, with 15 per cent undecided.

    It shows that Truss is now ahead of Sunak among all age groups, across different parts of the country and men and women. The only category where he beats Truss is among Tory Remain supporters.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/truss-extends-lead-over-sunak-in-tory-leadership-race-3pksqstpp

    It still looks like there is a Yougov house effect that favours Liz Truss. Of course, Yougov could be right and the others wrongly lean towards Rishi Sunak.
    Also in YouGov's favour their history of calling party leadership contests spot on.
    Yes, although I do wonder if, in the light of past success, their panel has been properly updated to encompass the recent 50 per cent growth of the voluntary party (assuming it needs to do so, which would depend on their being discrete differences between old and new members).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MORE IMPORTANTLY

    My diet yields results. 7 pounds down

    I spend my days reading restaurant reviews and fish recipes, and drooling from hunger, but it works

    What is this miracle diet and why can you not eat fish?
    It's a very clever diet where you eat ABSOLUTELY FUCK ALL

    For about 3 days, then you eat normally for 1 day (don't binge), then another 3 days with NOTHING

    Brutal, but it works
    Quite a few models of my acquaintance used to use a variation of 'the cabbage diet' where they'd just have cabbage soup (spiced, plain, herby) for the 'fasting' days. They claimed it worked wonders and kept the worst of the hunger pangs at bay. I imagine there are some fabulous Greek 'green soups' that would also fit the bill.
    When I get a real wobble I do the same! I either have a bowl of hot bone broth (yes @HYUFD) or miso soup. Gives some minerals and vits and flavour with almost no calories
    Do you make your own bone broth or buy it?
    Buy it. The good stuff. From wholefoods
    Cool. I'm pretty sure I'm not in their catchment area, so boiling up bones it is.
    I've learned a neat trick. You use the bone broth as a basis -

    https://www.ocado.com/products/borough-broth-co-organic-beef-bone-broth-large-pack-550741011?ds_rl=1291426&ds_rl=1291531&gclid=CjwKCAjwlqOXBhBqEiwA-hhitHwm_h-uXDjwlOP5YDR2WOCLbQ332acHYZPTpthEa2MB8oRbGV6K3BoCQocQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

    Then add in a tablespoon of sriracha and a sachet of dashi powder. This stuff

    https://www.japancentre.com/en/products/959-shimaya-bonito-dashi-stock-powder?gclid=CjwKCAjwlqOXBhBqEiwA-hhitCzifgRK6xY9lJtyTwQIJJWTYNQJaSae3g3KoGcsddMaf66rahMZJRoCt1EQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

    OMG it makes a sensational soup. Maybe chuck in some silken tofu or spinach or both. The umami flavour is intense, it is extremely nourishing, yet less than 100 calories. And it fills you up
    Thanks, sound good.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today

    That's one reading of the brief clip of what he said. Is President Macron also a Russian mole for having tried to broker a peace deal?
    I hate to think what you think you're trying to stand up for
    And you are getting excited about an extreme interpretation of some old has-been.
    A has-been that the new man strenuously supported in the last two General Elections

    Did he ever indicate a different Ukraine strategy than the "surrender now" one his boss espoused through Stop The War since 2014?
    First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. And one way or another, this war will end with a ceasefire and not the unconditional surrender of Russia. Second, Corbyn was calling for stiffer sanctions against Russia than were applied by our government. Third, Corbyn has not taken Russian money or been proven to have met with KGB agents recently. Fourth, if Starmer is somehow bound to Corbyn by history, what do you make of Liz and Rishi distancing themselves from the government in which they both served and that one of them still does?
    FTFY

    :)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    a) SKS sacks a front bencher for saying workers shouldn’t be given a real terms pay cut

    b) LAB plummets in Polls

    Nobody gives a fuck about a) say PB Tories but cant give a reason for b)

    The reason for b) is the focus and profile on the Tory leadership race and the prospect of a new PM and approach
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    a) SKS sacks a front bencher for saying workers shouldn’t be given a real terms pay cut

    b) LAB plummets in Polls

    Nobody gives a fuck about a) say PB Tories but cant give a reason for b)

    The reason for b) is the focus and profile on the Tory leadership race and the prospect of a new PM and approach
    So why are Con only up 2%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    Liz Truss has extended her lead over Rishi Sunak to 34 points in the Tory leadership race, with 60 per cent of party members now saying they will vote for the foreign secretary to succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister.

    A YouGov poll for The Times and Times Radio found that almost nine in ten Conservative members have now made up their minds how they will vote ahead of ballot papers going out this week.

    Just 26 per cent say they will support Sunak, compared with 60 per cent for Truss. The rest are undecided or say they will not vote.

    The poll, carried out over the past five days, suggests a significant widening of Truss’s lead. The last YouGov survey, carried out in the wake of Penny Mordaunt’s elimination from the race, had support for Truss on 49 per cent compared with 31 per cent for Sunak, with 15 per cent undecided.

    It shows that Truss is now ahead of Sunak among all age groups, across different parts of the country and men and women. The only category where he beats Truss is among Tory Remain supporters.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/truss-extends-lead-over-sunak-in-tory-leadership-race-3pksqstpp

    It still looks like there is a Yougov house effect that favours Liz Truss. Of course, Yougov could be right and the others wrongly lean towards Rishi Sunak.
    Also in YouGov's favour their history of calling party leadership contests spot on.
    Johnson led 74% to 26% in Yougov's Tory membership poll when ballot papers went out.

    Johnson won 66% to 33% for Hunt.

    Yougov got the winner right but not the margin

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-set-for-landslide-in-battle-to-reach-no-10-k8j3w3j03
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,305

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MORE IMPORTANTLY

    My diet yields results. 7 pounds down

    I spend my days reading restaurant reviews and fish recipes, and drooling from hunger, but it works

    What is this miracle diet and why can you not eat fish?
    It's a very clever diet where you eat ABSOLUTELY FUCK ALL

    For about 3 days, then you eat normally for 1 day (don't binge), then another 3 days with NOTHING

    Brutal, but it works
    Quite a few models of my acquaintance used to use a variation of 'the cabbage diet' where they'd just have cabbage soup (spiced, plain, herby) for the 'fasting' days. They claimed it worked wonders and kept the worst of the hunger pangs at bay. I imagine there are some fabulous Greek 'green soups' that would also fit the bill.
    When I get a real wobble I do the same! I either have a bowl of hot bone broth (yes @HYUFD) or miso soup. Gives some minerals and vits and flavour with almost no calories
    Do you make your own bone broth or buy it?
    Buy it. The good stuff. From wholefoods
    Cool. I'm pretty sure I'm not in their catchment area, so boiling up bones it is.
    I've learned a neat trick. You use the bone broth as a basis -

    https://www.ocado.com/products/borough-broth-co-organic-beef-bone-broth-large-pack-550741011?ds_rl=1291426&ds_rl=1291531&gclid=CjwKCAjwlqOXBhBqEiwA-hhitHwm_h-uXDjwlOP5YDR2WOCLbQ332acHYZPTpthEa2MB8oRbGV6K3BoCQocQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

    Then add in a tablespoon of sriracha and a sachet of dashi powder. This stuff

    https://www.japancentre.com/en/products/959-shimaya-bonito-dashi-stock-powder?gclid=CjwKCAjwlqOXBhBqEiwA-hhitCzifgRK6xY9lJtyTwQIJJWTYNQJaSae3g3KoGcsddMaf66rahMZJRoCt1EQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

    OMG it makes a sensational soup. Maybe chuck in some silken tofu or spinach or both. The umami flavour is intense, it is extremely nourishing, yet less than 100 calories. And it fills you up
    Thanks, sound good.
    The dashi stock is very addictive! Pure umami

    Some object to it as it contains MSG, but sod it, the flavour is great. It's tempting to chuck it in EVERYTHING - certainly curries and stews etc

    Amazon do it as well

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Shimaya-Bonito-Dashi-Stock-Powder/dp/B09N7K77BS/ref=sr_1_3?crid=1ZYVK92EFOV3T&keywords=bonito+dashi&qid=1659470916&s=grocery&sprefix=bonito+dashi,grocery,53&sr=1-3
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    Pineapple Daiquiri by the beach...


    Strong Roger Moore vibes.

    Is Magda from the Octopus Cult coming to dine with you later?
  • Liz Truss has extended her lead over Rishi Sunak to 34 points in the Tory leadership race, with 60 per cent of party members now saying they will vote for the foreign secretary to succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister.

    A YouGov poll for The Times and Times Radio found that almost nine in ten Conservative members have now made up their minds how they will vote ahead of ballot papers going out this week.

    Just 26 per cent say they will support Sunak, compared with 60 per cent for Truss. The rest are undecided or say they will not vote.

    The poll, carried out over the past five days, suggests a significant widening of Truss’s lead. The last YouGov survey, carried out in the wake of Penny Mordaunt’s elimination from the race, had support for Truss on 49 per cent compared with 31 per cent for Sunak, with 15 per cent undecided.

    It shows that Truss is now ahead of Sunak among all age groups, across different parts of the country and men and women. The only category where he beats Truss is among Tory Remain supporters.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/truss-extends-lead-over-sunak-in-tory-leadership-race-3pksqstpp

    It still looks like there is a Yougov house effect that favours Liz Truss. Of course, Yougov could be right and the others wrongly lean towards Rishi Sunak.
    Also in YouGov's favour their history of calling party leadership contests spot on.
    Yes, although I do wonder if, in the light of past success, their panel has been properly updated to encompass the recent 50 per cent growth of the voluntary party (assuming it needs to do so, which would depend on their being discrete differences between old and new members).
    They managed to spot the Three Quidders joining in 2015.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Does anyone else have a massive green next Con leader and a huge red next PM field or is it just me ?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Does anyone else have a massive green next Con leader and a huge red next PM field or is it just me ?

    I've got huge reds against Starmer and Rayner as next PM.
  • Nandy needs to be sacked.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,547

    @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today

    That's one reading of the brief clip of what he said. Is President Macron also a Russian mole for having tried to broker a peace deal?
    I hate to think what you think you're trying to stand up for
    And you are getting excited about an extreme interpretation of some old has-been.
    A has-been that the new man strenuously supported in the last two General Elections

    Did he ever indicate a different Ukraine strategy than the "surrender now" one his boss espoused through Stop The War since 2014?
    First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. And one way or another, this war will end with a ceasefire and not the unconditional surrender of Russia. Second, Corbyn was calling for stiffer sanctions against Russia than were applied by our government. Third, Corbyn has not taken Russian money or met with KGB agents. Fourth, if Starmer is somehow bound to Corbyn by history, what do you make of Liz and Rishi distancing themselves from the government in which they both served and that one of them still does?
    "First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. "

    He is calling for the west not to provide Ukraine with any arms. Which would force Ukraine to either negotiate from a position of massive weakness, or lead them to defeat. Either way, Russia gets to keep a massive amount of territory, and will know that Ukraine will not be armed when they want to grab the rest.

    Worse, other neighbouring countries will know that the west will not defend them.

    it is a fuckwitted thing to suggest, and a fuckwitted thing to support. Unless you support Russia. It is deeply immoral.

    Corbyn just needs to say: "The only way to get long-term peace is for Russia to withdraw back to the January 2022 borders."

    But he won't.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 2,722
    Endillion said:

    a) SKS sacks a front bencher for saying workers shouldn’t be given a real terms pay cut

    b) LAB plummets in Polls

    Nobody gives a fuck about a) say PB Tories but cant give a reason for b)

    Here's one: the Conservatives are up in the polls simply because they've gotten about 20 times the media coverage Labour have in the past few weeks, due to the ongoing leadership election.
    There might also be a "Boris won't be leading the Tories" effect happening, so could affect the polls
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,775

    @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today

    That's one reading of the brief clip of what he said. Is President Macron also a Russian mole for having tried to broker a peace deal?
    I hate to think what you think you're trying to stand up for
    And you are getting excited about an extreme interpretation of some old has-been.
    A has-been that the new man strenuously supported in the last two General Elections

    Did he ever indicate a different Ukraine strategy than the "surrender now" one his boss espoused through Stop The War since 2014?
    First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. And one way or another, this war will end with a ceasefire and not the unconditional surrender of Russia. Second, Corbyn was calling for stiffer sanctions against Russia than were applied by our government. Third, Corbyn has not taken Russian money or met with KGB agents. Fourth, if Starmer is somehow bound to Corbyn by history, what do you make of Liz and Rishi distancing themselves from the government in which they both served and that one of them still does?
    It's naive in the extreme to call for a ceasefire. There is zero chance of there being a ceasefire until it becomes clear to Russia that they can make no more gains on the battlefield. We applied as much diplomatic pressure as we could to dissuade the invasion before February 24th, and were open to talking to Russia to make progress on legitimate concerns, but they still invaded because they felt they could get more of what they wanted with military action. So they won't listen now to any calls for a ceasefire. Especially if we stop providing arms to Ukraine so that Russia can prevail militarily.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,851

    Nandy needs to be sacked.

    Youll have to wait till SKS returns 15 August apparently
  • Nandy needs to be sacked.

    Youll have to wait till SKS returns 15 August apparently
    He must get on with it. She's a lightweight and a muppet. Get her out
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    Endillion said:

    12:1 for the pre-race favourite, only two candidates remaining, not a single vote been cast yet (and might not be for a couple of weeks), current odds-on favourite has a history of being gaffe-prone and there aren't any reliable polls of the electorate available?

    Yes please.

    I'm going back in at 12/1

    Truss has shown today she is one massive gaffe from implosion. That has to be worth a punt.

    Actually, it sort of hasn't: it demonstrates she has acute political judgement.

    She killed the story in hours (cut her losses in gamblers parlance) when she realised it could damage her.

    Theresa May would have let it run for days.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today

    That's one reading of the brief clip of what he said. Is President Macron also a Russian mole for having tried to broker a peace deal?
    I hate to think what you think you're trying to stand up for
    And you are getting excited about an extreme interpretation of some old has-been.
    A has-been that the new man strenuously supported in the last two General Elections

    Did he ever indicate a different Ukraine strategy than the "surrender now" one his boss espoused through Stop The War since 2014?
    First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. And one way or another, this war will end with a ceasefire and not the unconditional surrender of Russia. Second, Corbyn was calling for stiffer sanctions against Russia than were applied by our government. Third, Corbyn has not taken Russian money or met with KGB agents. Fourth, if Starmer is somehow bound to Corbyn by history, what do you make of Liz and Rishi distancing themselves from the government in which they both served and that one of them still does?
    "First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. "

    He is calling for the west not to provide Ukraine with any arms. Which would force Ukraine to either negotiate from a position of massive weakness, or lead them to defeat. Either way, Russia gets to keep a massive amount of territory, and will know that Ukraine will not be armed when they want to grab the rest.

    Worse, other neighbouring countries will know that the west will not defend them.

    it is a fuckwitted thing to suggest, and a fuckwitted thing to support. Unless you support Russia. It is deeply immoral.

    Corbyn just needs to say: "The only way to get long-term peace is for Russia to withdraw back to the January 2022 borders."

    But he won't.
    No, because Russia was the birthplace of his philosophy and can do no wrong.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603

    Nandy needs to be sacked.

    If you want a Labour Party civil war.
  • @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today

    That's one reading of the brief clip of what he said. Is President Macron also a Russian mole for having tried to broker a peace deal?
    I hate to think what you think you're trying to stand up for
    And you are getting excited about an extreme interpretation of some old has-been.
    A has-been that the new man strenuously supported in the last two General Elections

    Did he ever indicate a different Ukraine strategy than the "surrender now" one his boss espoused through Stop The War since 2014?
    First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. And one way or another, this war will end with a ceasefire and not the unconditional surrender of Russia. Second, Corbyn was calling for stiffer sanctions against Russia than were applied by our government. Third, Corbyn has not taken Russian money or met with KGB agents. Fourth, if Starmer is somehow bound to Corbyn by history, what do you make of Liz and Rishi distancing themselves from the government in which they both served and that one of them still does?
    "First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. "

    He is calling for the west not to provide Ukraine with any arms. Which would force Ukraine to either negotiate from a position of massive weakness, or lead them to defeat. Either way, Russia gets to keep a massive amount of territory, and will know that Ukraine will not be armed when they want to grab the rest.

    Worse, other neighbouring countries will know that the west will not defend them.

    it is a fuckwitted thing to suggest, and a fuckwitted thing to support. Unless you support Russia. It is deeply immoral.

    Corbyn just needs to say: "The only way to get long-term peace is for Russia to withdraw back to the January 2022 borders."

    But he won't.
    30 seconds of Google finds Corbyn saying on his own website: "Russia must withdraw its troops and return to diplomacy."
    https://jeremycorbyn.org.uk/crisis-in-ukraine/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    Pulpstar said:

    Does anyone else have a massive green next Con leader and a huge red next PM field or is it just me ?

    I've got pennies on next Con leader and a massive next PM field but that's because I can't handle playing two v. similar markets at once.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today

    That's one reading of the brief clip of what he said. Is President Macron also a Russian mole for having tried to broker a peace deal?
    I hate to think what you think you're trying to stand up for
    And you are getting excited about an extreme interpretation of some old has-been.
    A has-been that the new man strenuously supported in the last two General Elections

    Did he ever indicate a different Ukraine strategy than the "surrender now" one his boss espoused through Stop The War since 2014?
    First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. And one way or another, this war will end with a ceasefire and not the unconditional surrender of Russia. Second, Corbyn was calling for stiffer sanctions against Russia than were applied by our government. Third, Corbyn has not taken Russian money or met with KGB agents. Fourth, if Starmer is somehow bound to Corbyn by history, what do you make of Liz and Rishi distancing themselves from the government in which they both served and that one of them still does?
    "First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. "

    He is calling for the west not to provide Ukraine with any arms. Which would force Ukraine to either negotiate from a position of massive weakness, or lead them to defeat. Either way, Russia gets to keep a massive amount of territory, and will know that Ukraine will not be armed when they want to grab the rest.

    Worse, other neighbouring countries will know that the west will not defend them.

    it is a fuckwitted thing to suggest, and a fuckwitted thing to support. Unless you support Russia. It is deeply immoral.

    Corbyn just needs to say: "The only way to get long-term peace is for Russia to withdraw back to the January 2022 borders."

    But he won't.
    No, because Russia was the birthplace of his philosophy and can do no wrong.
    To be fair it came from North London originally.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,305

    Endillion said:

    12:1 for the pre-race favourite, only two candidates remaining, not a single vote been cast yet (and might not be for a couple of weeks), current odds-on favourite has a history of being gaffe-prone and there aren't any reliable polls of the electorate available?

    Yes please.

    I'm going back in at 12/1

    Truss has shown today she is one massive gaffe from implosion. That has to be worth a punt.

    Actually, it sort of hasn't: it demonstrates she has acute political judgement.

    She killed the story in hours (cut her losses in gamblers parlance) when she realised it could damage her.

    Theresa May would have let it run for days.
    Yes, I agree. Boris would also have soldiered on for a day or two - damagingly. She did not

    In a month of hustings - impromptu public speaking for an hour or more each time - any candidate is going to say foolish things, and make recorded gaffes. It is inevitable. So it is how you deal with them that counts. She was fairly ruthless, here, and the memory is already fading. She showed political acumen
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    a) SKS sacks a front bencher for saying workers shouldn’t be given a real terms pay cut

    b) LAB plummets in Polls

    Nobody gives a fuck about a) say PB Tories but cant give a reason for b)

    The reason for b) is the focus and profile on the Tory leadership race and the prospect of a new PM and approach
    So why are Con only up 2%
    Early days.

    I don't doubt that what you call PicketGate is a factor on the activist Labour Left but I'd be astonished if it was feeding through into general voting intention.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today

    That's one reading of the brief clip of what he said. Is President Macron also a Russian mole for having tried to broker a peace deal?
    I hate to think what you think you're trying to stand up for
    And you are getting excited about an extreme interpretation of some old has-been.
    A has-been that the new man strenuously supported in the last two General Elections

    Did he ever indicate a different Ukraine strategy than the "surrender now" one his boss espoused through Stop The War since 2014?
    First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. And one way or another, this war will end with a ceasefire and not the unconditional surrender of Russia. Second, Corbyn was calling for stiffer sanctions against Russia than were applied by our government. Third, Corbyn has not taken Russian money or met with KGB agents. Fourth, if Starmer is somehow bound to Corbyn by history, what do you make of Liz and Rishi distancing themselves from the government in which they both served and that one of them still does?
    "First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. "

    He is calling for the west not to provide Ukraine with any arms. Which would force Ukraine to either negotiate from a position of massive weakness, or lead them to defeat. Either way, Russia gets to keep a massive amount of territory, and will know that Ukraine will not be armed when they want to grab the rest.

    Worse, other neighbouring countries will know that the west will not defend them.

    it is a fuckwitted thing to suggest, and a fuckwitted thing to support. Unless you support Russia. It is deeply immoral.

    Corbyn just needs to say: "The only way to get long-term peace is for Russia to withdraw back to the January 2022 borders."

    But he won't.
    30 seconds of Google finds Corbyn saying on his own website: "Russia must withdraw its troops and return to diplomacy."
    https://jeremycorbyn.org.uk/crisis-in-ukraine/
    JJ and PB Tories dont have google!!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,851
    In an alternate universe, 'senior Tories' are briefing their concern that Boris and Rishis economic relaunch hasnt shifted the polls and Angie and Sam Tarry have invited Keir over for a curry
  • Endillion said:

    12:1 for the pre-race favourite, only two candidates remaining, not a single vote been cast yet (and might not be for a couple of weeks), current odds-on favourite has a history of being gaffe-prone and there aren't any reliable polls of the electorate available?

    Yes please.

    I'm going back in at 12/1

    Truss has shown today she is one massive gaffe from implosion. That has to be worth a punt.

    Actually, it sort of hasn't: it demonstrates she has acute political judgement.

    She killed the story in hours (cut her losses in gamblers parlance) when she realised it could damage her.

    Theresa May would have let it run for days.
    As did Johnson.

    But even if cutting her losses quickly is better than doing it slowly, there is a limit to how many times she can pull off even a rapid reverse ferret.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    Nandy needs to be sacked.

    Youll have to wait till SKS returns 15 August apparently
    She's a lightweight and a muppet. Get her out
    Reminds me of you really
  • Nandy needs to be sacked.

    Youll have to wait till SKS returns 15 August apparently
    She's a lightweight and a muppet. Get her out
    Reminds me of you really
    LightweightHorseBattery?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today

    That's one reading of the brief clip of what he said. Is President Macron also a Russian mole for having tried to broker a peace deal?
    I hate to think what you think you're trying to stand up for
    And you are getting excited about an extreme interpretation of some old has-been.
    A has-been that the new man strenuously supported in the last two General Elections

    Did he ever indicate a different Ukraine strategy than the "surrender now" one his boss espoused through Stop The War since 2014?
    First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. And one way or another, this war will end with a ceasefire and not the unconditional surrender of Russia. Second, Corbyn was calling for stiffer sanctions against Russia than were applied by our government. Third, Corbyn has not taken Russian money or met with KGB agents. Fourth, if Starmer is somehow bound to Corbyn by history, what do you make of Liz and Rishi distancing themselves from the government in which they both served and that one of them still does?
    It's naive in the extreme to call for a ceasefire. There is zero chance of there being a ceasefire until it becomes clear to Russia that they can make no more gains on the battlefield. We applied as much diplomatic pressure as we could to dissuade the invasion before February 24th, and were open to talking to Russia to make progress on legitimate concerns, but they still invaded because they felt they could get more of what they wanted with military action. So they won't listen now to any calls for a ceasefire. Especially if we stop providing arms to Ukraine so that Russia can prevail militarily.
    Yes, the only way this finishes is with Russia utterly defeated militarily. They’ve already lost half their tanks and a third of their army’s vehicles in only five months. This isn’t going to be a long war, with the defenders having access to almost unlimited NATO weaponry and training.

    They have now lost and reduced supply lines to a lot of their troops in Ukraine, and those in Kherson especially are being pushed back and starved out.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited August 2022

    Endillion said:

    12:1 for the pre-race favourite, only two candidates remaining, not a single vote been cast yet (and might not be for a couple of weeks), current odds-on favourite has a history of being gaffe-prone and there aren't any reliable polls of the electorate available?

    Yes please.

    I'm going back in at 12/1

    Truss has shown today she is one massive gaffe from implosion. That has to be worth a punt.

    Actually, it sort of hasn't: it demonstrates she has acute political judgement.

    She killed the story in hours (cut her losses in gamblers parlance) when she realised it could damage her.

    Theresa May would have let it run for days.
    Her original problem remains, though.

    How to pay for her tax cuts. It’s either fantasy Reganomics, or she has another stab at identifying significant cost savings. Or she bait-and-switches the membership once in power, either significantly scaling back her tax cuts “having looked at the books” / “because of different financial circumstances” - or - she has to cut pensions / nhs etc that the membership don’t expect to be cut.

    She’s kicked the can down the road. Far enough to get her over the line?

    We’ll see.

  • New Thread

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    Nandy needs to be sacked.

    If you want a Labour Party civil war.
    CHB is an SKS cult member with an L
  • Pineapple Daiquiri by the beach...


    Strong Roger Moore vibes.

    Is Magda from the Octopus Cult coming to dine with you later?
    Hope so
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,547

    @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today

    That's one reading of the brief clip of what he said. Is President Macron also a Russian mole for having tried to broker a peace deal?
    I hate to think what you think you're trying to stand up for
    And you are getting excited about an extreme interpretation of some old has-been.
    A has-been that the new man strenuously supported in the last two General Elections

    Did he ever indicate a different Ukraine strategy than the "surrender now" one his boss espoused through Stop The War since 2014?
    First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. And one way or another, this war will end with a ceasefire and not the unconditional surrender of Russia. Second, Corbyn was calling for stiffer sanctions against Russia than were applied by our government. Third, Corbyn has not taken Russian money or met with KGB agents. Fourth, if Starmer is somehow bound to Corbyn by history, what do you make of Liz and Rishi distancing themselves from the government in which they both served and that one of them still does?
    "First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. "

    He is calling for the west not to provide Ukraine with any arms. Which would force Ukraine to either negotiate from a position of massive weakness, or lead them to defeat. Either way, Russia gets to keep a massive amount of territory, and will know that Ukraine will not be armed when they want to grab the rest.

    Worse, other neighbouring countries will know that the west will not defend them.

    it is a fuckwitted thing to suggest, and a fuckwitted thing to support. Unless you support Russia. It is deeply immoral.

    Corbyn just needs to say: "The only way to get long-term peace is for Russia to withdraw back to the January 2022 borders."

    But he won't.
    30 seconds of Google finds Corbyn saying on his own website: "Russia must withdraw its troops and return to diplomacy."
    https://jeremycorbyn.org.uk/crisis-in-ukraine/
    I might respectfully suggest you listen to his interview I linked to this morning.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,547

    @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today

    That's one reading of the brief clip of what he said. Is President Macron also a Russian mole for having tried to broker a peace deal?
    I hate to think what you think you're trying to stand up for
    And you are getting excited about an extreme interpretation of some old has-been.
    A has-been that the new man strenuously supported in the last two General Elections

    Did he ever indicate a different Ukraine strategy than the "surrender now" one his boss espoused through Stop The War since 2014?
    First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. And one way or another, this war will end with a ceasefire and not the unconditional surrender of Russia. Second, Corbyn was calling for stiffer sanctions against Russia than were applied by our government. Third, Corbyn has not taken Russian money or met with KGB agents. Fourth, if Starmer is somehow bound to Corbyn by history, what do you make of Liz and Rishi distancing themselves from the government in which they both served and that one of them still does?
    "First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. "

    He is calling for the west not to provide Ukraine with any arms. Which would force Ukraine to either negotiate from a position of massive weakness, or lead them to defeat. Either way, Russia gets to keep a massive amount of territory, and will know that Ukraine will not be armed when they want to grab the rest.

    Worse, other neighbouring countries will know that the west will not defend them.

    it is a fuckwitted thing to suggest, and a fuckwitted thing to support. Unless you support Russia. It is deeply immoral.

    Corbyn just needs to say: "The only way to get long-term peace is for Russia to withdraw back to the January 2022 borders."

    But he won't.
    30 seconds of Google finds Corbyn saying on his own website: "Russia must withdraw its troops and return to diplomacy."
    https://jeremycorbyn.org.uk/crisis-in-ukraine/
    JJ and PB Tories dont have google!!
    I might suggest you listen to your hero's interview I linked to this morning.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    @NickPalmer has had plenty of time to distance himself rom Corbyn

    I suspect he won't because he agrees at least a bit

    I doubt Nick cares, but he can't retain my respect without an unequivocal, complete and sincere statement on the evil perpetuated by HIS MAN'S side

    That's why you all need to hang your heads in shame

    Corbyn is pro Russia/Putin and has proved it today

    That's one reading of the brief clip of what he said. Is President Macron also a Russian mole for having tried to broker a peace deal?
    I hate to think what you think you're trying to stand up for
    And you are getting excited about an extreme interpretation of some old has-been.
    A has-been that the new man strenuously supported in the last two General Elections

    Did he ever indicate a different Ukraine strategy than the "surrender now" one his boss espoused through Stop The War since 2014?
    First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. And one way or another, this war will end with a ceasefire and not the unconditional surrender of Russia. Second, Corbyn was calling for stiffer sanctions against Russia than were applied by our government. Third, Corbyn has not taken Russian money or met with KGB agents. Fourth, if Starmer is somehow bound to Corbyn by history, what do you make of Liz and Rishi distancing themselves from the government in which they both served and that one of them still does?
    "First, Corbyn is calling for a ceasefire, not a surrender. "

    He is calling for the west not to provide Ukraine with any arms. Which would force Ukraine to either negotiate from a position of massive weakness, or lead them to defeat. Either way, Russia gets to keep a massive amount of territory, and will know that Ukraine will not be armed when they want to grab the rest.

    Worse, other neighbouring countries will know that the west will not defend them.

    it is a fuckwitted thing to suggest, and a fuckwitted thing to support. Unless you support Russia. It is deeply immoral.

    Corbyn just needs to say: "The only way to get long-term peace is for Russia to withdraw back to the January 2022 borders."

    But he won't.
    No, because Russia was the birthplace of his philosophy and can do no wrong.
    To be fair it came from North London originally.
    True but it incubated into reality there.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590
    Sandpit said:

    .

    There’s a report that ATACMS has been cleared for delivery to Ukraine…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

    300km range, you fire it from a HIMARS.

    That one makes a big boom!

    They’re almost obsolete to the US, but still better than anything currently in theatre, and the US Army has a couple of thousand of them lying around.
    They’re going to be scrapped within the next few years, so not dissimilar to shipping over the NLAWs in that respect.
    Capable kit.
This discussion has been closed.